WHO WINS?


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88m3

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The thing is though...Biden has a low ceiling at this point. Some other candidate could maybe improve their poll numbers once they start campaigning.

Biden's numbers are probably set in stone...hard to see anybody changing their mind on him between now and November.

Come on man.... You have people throwing around names in here like Chris Murphy. He's despised by half of Connecticut, you think he's going to touch the soul of the suburban whites in rural PA or rural WI?

Nah.... And Newsom? I would agree that if Newsom had a few years to campaign then maybe he could light a spark but he would have to be sent through the wringer first on the homeless issues in California and the inflation issues, housing issues he's faced, etc.. and there's not enough time to get out in front of all of that and then run a sound campaign to follow.

It's not happening. The reason why Biden won in 2020 and why he would have won in 2016 is because he is the only Dem that speaks to the suburban center/left whites in the country...
 

Piff Perkins

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I disagree with your post here because we saw the data... it was posted in here. Every other "candidate" whether it's Kamala or even Newsom... is polling WORSE vs. Trump than Biden is...

That's all the data you NEED to see. If Biden can't win those Rust Belt states then nobody else is either.

To be fair the lower numbers for non-Biden voters allow for growth, since the candidate would be able to actually go out and campaign. Biden's numbers have largely been stuck all year because he can't do anything to change the fact that people aren't big fans of him, and his age is an issue. He's not gonna give a great speech and get a boost, or win a debate, or anything else. He's stuck where he is. Kamala and others have the potential to rise in the polls.
 

Pressure

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To be fair the lower numbers for non-Biden voters allow for growth, since the candidate would be able to actually go out and campaign. Biden's numbers have largely been stuck all year because he can't do anything to change the fact that people aren't big fans of him, and his age is an issue. He's not gonna give a great speech and get a boost, or win a debate, or anything else. He's stuck where he is. Kamala and others have the potential to rise in the polls.
Kamala is Ron DeSantis.

The more she's out there the more unlikable she'll become.

And to me that's the problem with this scenario because I don't see Kamala being leap frogged.

Also, we're making pure superficial electability arguments without any discussion of policy.

That said, 3 months I'd enough time for people to decide if they like a politician enough to vote for them.
 

AVXL

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The thing is though...Biden has a low ceiling at this point. Some other candidate could maybe improve their poll numbers once they start campaigning.

Biden's numbers are probably set in stone...hard to see anybody changing their mind on him between now and November. He won't get any younger and his other policies that people don't like (ie. Gaza) won't change.

Bro the reality is that Biden is the best option for Dems to win in November. Look at the polling for other Dems not named Michelle Obama…none of them are beating Trump in 4 months. Is this an ideal scenario with a clearly declining 82 year old President running for reelection? No. But Biden’s the best bet to win, thats not debatable

Bernie Sanders said it best on Face the Nation…Dems need to make this a referendum on policy and the future of the nation and Dems need to further elevate Kamala, Gretchen & Gavin nationally as surrogates to pick up where Joe physically isn’t able. Make this an administration play, it’s not about one candidate. Continue to push the reality of a Project 2025 America. Do something. All this effort to push Biden out is pissing people off (myself included)…he wasn’t too old 3 weeks ago, now he is? GTFOH fukk a debate stage

BTW :camby: @King Kreole dont think I forgot your campaign on here for Trump in 2016
 

the cac mamba

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Come on man.... You have people throwing around names in here like Chris Murphy. He's despised by half of Connecticut, you think he's going to touch the soul of the suburban whites in rural PA or rural WI?

It's not happening. The reason why Biden won in 2020 and why he would have won in 2016 is because he is the only Dem that speaks to the suburban center/left whites in the country...
i don't think a lot of voters need their soul touched :dame: by a politician. especially when the alternative is donald trump. they're just looking for a competent, experienced executive

and i don't buy that Biden is the only politician who can speak to suburban, moderate voters. at all. especially since all that "compassionate Joe" shyt has been exposed so badly in the past couple years. along with his mental acuity :mjlol:

biden was a perfect VP pick for Obama. he was the right candidate in 2016, and 2020. it's OK to admit that he is no longer the right candidate for 2024
 

the cac mamba

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Bro the reality is that Biden is the best option for Dems to win in November. Look at the polling for other Dems not named Michelle Obama…none of them are beating Trump in 4 months. Is this an ideal scenario with a clearly declining 82 year old President running for reelection? No. But Biden’s the best bet to win, thats not debatable
i don't see why not. everyone always talks about "excitement" being a thing, right? nothing would be more exciting politically than the Dems replacing one of these two fukkin 80 year olds we have to choose from, with a fresh face in their 50s :yeshrug:

dems get an enormous momentum shift. trump's team is scrambling. hit the swing states to campaign, bring obama out, etc

it's kinda killing me that we aren't gonna be able to find out if this was doable :dead: i think it is. but if i had to bet money on the outcome, we're probably stuck with biden
 

Loose

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It's over for biden, the longer he fights this the worse it is for our chances in the future. Democrats can no longer ignore their constitutes concerns after that debate. We all seen it, we all subconsciously understand and feel he's close to a retirement home not close to leading the country.
 
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