2024 U.S. Presidential General Election Thread

[taker597]

So one poll has Trump at +1 and two polls have Kamala at +8. at this point, why even pay attention to these shyts?

It's pretty obvious... He's doing this for engagement. I bet the day before the race... Harris is gonna magically go back up +7

 

[taker597]

 

[taker597]

 

[taker597]

 

[Piff Perkins]

There's a clear incentive here that Silver likely picked up on in 2022. The flood of bullshyt, GOP leaning polls resulted in a large amount of people expecting - and betting on - a republican blowout that didn't happen. Allowing people to bet on outcomes that you influence via your probability model means you can artificially influence bets and behavior. Basically, Silver is going to convince a lot of stupid people (who regularly waste money on bad things like crypto scams, betting, etc) to lay down money on what they think is a surefire W. And if Trump loses, which I think is likely, Silver's company avoids having to pay shyt out.

 

[Outlaw]

Ofcourse we’ll take his vote, but the way some of you are wetting your panties over the worst and most evil leader of the 21st century is disgusting.

This is a man who stole the election in 2000, was negligent on 9/11, started an illegal War that resulted in the deaths/injury of a million people, added fuel to hyper partisanship fire, shot a guy in the face, lied to the country etc.

It’s like some of you lack any real core beliefs.

I look forward to yall celebrating a Trump endorsement in the future.

I get what you’re saying and I’m not celebrating the endorsement but who do you think is worse? Big dikk Cheney or Trump?

 

[taker597]

Texas will cheat. So, I wouldn't fall into that trap

 

[Smoking With Cigarettes]

Texas will cheat. So, I wouldn't fall into that trap

They'll try in FL too
Russians hacked voting databases in two Florida counties in 2016, governor says

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-security-idUSKBN1KU003/

DeSantis election had wild fukkery surrounding it and he has no issue with corruption, like altering the states covid deaths and making sure Publix was the lead vaccine distributor since they donated so much to his campaign. For Kamala to win TX and FL it cant be close and unfortunately I dont think we quite there yet

 

[Outlaw]

They'll try in FL too
Russians hacked voting databases in two Florida counties in 2016, governor says

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-security-idUSKBN1KU003/

DeSantis election had wild fukkery surrounding it and he has no issue with corruption, like altering the states covid deaths and making sure Publix was the lead vaccine distributor since they donated so much to his campaign. For Kamala to win TX and FL it cant be close and unfortunately I dont think we quite there yet

I wouldn’t be surprised if all high level MAGA politicians are compromised by the Russians. The tell is if they complain about Ukraine funding

 

[mastermind]

“Those most enthralled with Donald Trump were not at the very bottom — the illiterate, the hungry,” she writes. Rather, Trump’s biggest fans could be found among “the elite of the left-behind,” meaning people “who were doing well within a region that was not.” [...]
But when you factored in local conditions — the fact that your dollar can buy more in Biloxi than Boston — the relationship reverses. “Locally rich” white people, those who had higher incomes than others in their zip codes, were much more likely to support Trump than those who were locally poor. These people might make less money than a wealthy person in a big city, but were doing relatively well when compared to their neighbors.
Put those two results together, and you get a picture that aligns precisely with Hochschild’s observations. Trump’s strongest support comes from people who live in poorer parts of the country, like KY-5, but are still able to live a relatively comfortable life there."

Trump’s biggest fans aren’t who you think

It’s always been this. It’s been reported on damn near every year since the election and yet the media and blue middle class voters hammer in on the poor whites who don’t even vote. We do this with all the poor. Corporate media does a great job at making us think the poor cause all of our problems.

 

[mastermind]

It's both. Just look at the data. ~60% of adult white males will be voting for Trump in November. They aren't all redneck hicks from trailer parks or middle of nowhere towns in the Midwest. The GOP is built on the "fear" of the white man being left behind in America. Not just in numbers or economically, it's everything, they are also incels who blame everyone else because women won't talk to them. They are losers who made fun of at school... They are tech bros who are upset because society labeled them as nerds...

The number is 60% of voting white men, not all white men.



even in an election that had record turnout, easiest way to vote ever, 80 million people didn’t vote.

 

[mastermind]

Many people want the cute "lifestyle" of what they think working in government looks like so they can post on TikTok but they don't want any of the actual work it takes to get anywhere...

are you following those political staffer tiktok accounts? If you are, then maybe you have the problem. I have a feeling you are making this up again.

As a person who worked around those people most of my life, there is nothing glamorous about working the officer of a Congress staffer. (And for those who are as “unaware” like @Saysumthinfunnymike , staffers for a political official isnt the same as a person who works for a government department or agency, who we colloquially call government workers. That work is absolutely not a “lifestyle” and they all know it, lol)

 

[mastermind]

Blue MAGA really in here dikk (Cheney) riding

they align more with Cheney, tbf

 

[mitter]

For all the criticism Nate Silver gets on here, is he really that washed? he was invincible when he first stepped on to the scene.

I remember he was the golden boy in 2008 (or was it 2012?), he got every state right in the EC and was the only mainstream voice who nailed it.

I've always thought his insight was generally tight and accurate, except for maybe one "off year". I know he fumbled 2016 but so did most pundits.

objectively speaking how accurate has he been the last 8 years? Whether or not we like his politics, or he has money pumping in from partisan players, I am trying to understand his track record and how often he's been right/ wrong since the 2016 debacle.

People celebrated him for no reason.

In any given election, there are only 5-6 states that are truly up for grabs. Any moron will automatically get 44-45 out of 50 states right.

For the 5-6 battleground states, anyone who is literate can read polls and make a good educated guess about the most likely outcome. In the end, what separates someone who gets 48 out of 50 right vs 50 out of 50 right is just sheer chance.

 

[Trips]

i think this will be looked at as trump’s “biden’s debate” moment.

the media actually trying to finally kill off their Trump ratings push