I'm not gonna really react to the recent Biden swing for polls because the same problem is underneath. He's gaining because independent voters are shifting harder his way than normal. But for instance if you look at the Fox poll he's up 9 with independents but look at the other demos.
"Biden receives the backing of 73% of Black voters. That’s a bit below the 79% he had before the 2020 election, when he went on to win over Blacks with 91% support, according to the November 2020 Fox News Voter Analysis."
Fox News Poll: Three-point shift in Biden-Trump matchup since May
President Biden is the frontrunner in a hypothetical matchup against former President Trump for the first time since October, as positive views of the economy inch up.www.foxnews.com
So you see what I've been saying for MONTHS now. The samples are constantly showing odd results in the cross tabs that either show historic shifts within a 4 year span or...are just wrong because the pollsters keep sprinkling weird amounts of unlikely/non-voters into their data that fukks it up. If Biden wins independents by any percentage (doesn't have to be 9) and wins the black vote at the historical level...he will smoke Trump.
Here's the cross tabs BTW:
Breakdown of the topline's demos are on page 7. Biden is up by only ten with Hispanics. I guess that's possible but worth noting Biden won them by 30 points in 2020, but the trendlines were worse than Obama's; once again though if that number creeps anywhere close to 2020 like with black people...Trump is fukked. But here's where I have another problem I've been talking about: Biden is only up 8% with voters under 30yo, but is also up 15 points with voters 65+. A democrat hasn't won the 65+ yo vote in multiple decades. Sure, Trump barely won that demo in 2020 but I'm just not buying this being accurate data. Once again it points to a historical shift or either bad data.
I maintain my position: I think Biden wins, I think multiple months of Trump being Trump will continue to push people to Biden, I think the black vote will largely be the same as 2020, and I think turnout will be much higher for Biden voters.
Yeah I think such wild swings and differences shows how flawed the polls are
I also agree that i think Biden pulls it out because people will show up from the non enthusiastic Dems to the independents and even those who don’t necessarily love Biden because they all just don’t want to deal with another 4 years of Trump in the end
