2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread

[Pressure]

@Outlaw @Pressure @88m3 @ADevilYouKhow @FAH1223

The average voter wants $10 tomatoes. Let them have it.

I'm all for it. No amount of education is going to beat emotions

 

[FAH1223]

I think bidens just not a great candidate and the worst one dems could have chosen. We been seeing similar polls for two years now, the general enthusiasm around re-electing biden is very low.

Well the thing is, Biden is the incumbent. Running a sitting POTUS gives you the advantage.

Trump losing in 2020 was the first incumbent losing since H.W. Bush in 1992, nearly 3 decades.

Switching him out at this point, its too late. Kamala is even more unpopular and no one thinks she can win a general election.

And I seriously doubt that, even if Biden stepped away last year saying he wasn't going to run, that Kamala would lose the nomination.

Biden's approval ratings just never recovered after August 2021 when the Afghanistan withdrawal happened and the entire media attacked him relentlessly for it.

 

[FAH1223]

Whats your concern though?

How so? Iowa has a different racial make up than the actual swing Midwest states

You guys are being a little too cavalier about this and @FAH1223 is just being real. I’m no longer directly involved but all the people I know actually working on the Biden campaign and who are tasked with outreach are genuinely worried. Especially everyone responsible for outreach in all the must have purple-ish states. They are particularly concerned about youth turnout.

I was having this convo yesterday and telling them I’m confused because on one hand, young people turned out in record numbers on a lot of these mid term and local elections after Roe v. Wade got dialed back and at the same time there’s this concern that they won’t turn out for Biden. It seems like the best bet is to make the election less about candidates and more about specific issues. It just reminds me of when Axelrod said there are limitations to how much you can sell a candidate. But Biden just seems like he’s being blamed for inflation from my vantage point - fair or not.

 

[Pressure]

Biden's approval ratings just never recovered after August 2021 when the Afghanistan withdrawal happened and the entire media attacked him relentlessly for it.

Inflation surge really kicked off summer 2021 and hasn't really let up.

 

[Pressure]

Interesting thought, but is it really relevant this cycle with Dems kicking IOWA to the curb?

 

[FAH1223]

Interesting thought, but is it really relevant this cycle with Dems kicking IOWA to the curb?

Biden got 45% in 2020! And Dems didn't even play to win there.

 

[88m3]

@Outlaw @Pressure @88m3 @ADevilYouKhow @FAH1223

The average voter wants $10 tomatoes. Let them have it.

depressing

what do you expect when media including social media runs on a constant stream of fear mongering and scarcity

disinformation campaigns have been very active as well from the usual countries

fed need to cut interest rates which will help with a lot of the problems people are facing and putting a hard check on monopolies and price gouging

congress needs to pass laws to address immigration obviously but most importantly government needs to create housing, increase wages, and affordable medical care without increasing taxes on regular people

 

[Pressure]

Biden got 45% in 2020! And Dems didn't even play to win there.

I'm referring to the primary schedule. Wasn't the reason behind it due to Iowa politics were no longer predictive to the dem nominee.

 

[ADevilYouKhow]

In historic move, Wes Moore issues pardons for over 175K misdemeanor cannabis convictions — Baltimore Sun

Gov. Wes Moore issued more than 175,000 pardons for misdemeanor cannabis possession and use convictions Monday morning.

apple.news

A Democrat did this

 

[FAH1223]

I'm referring to the primary schedule. Wasn't the reason behind it due to Iowa politics were no longer predictive to the dem nominee.

I don’t care about the primary

I’m going off general election

Obama won Iowa twice

Trump the last two times and Biden got 45% in 2020.

 

[Pressure]

I don’t care about the primary

I’m going off general election

Obama won Iowa twice

Trump the last two times and Biden got 45% in 2020.

Again, what is this arbitrary statistic supposed to prove.

In 2020 the narrative was Biden was doomed because Iowa had voted blue 6 of 7 presidential elections?

It's an ESPN Stat. Like saying Boston has never lost a finals where they win the first 2 games. Despite the 2024 having no connection to 1928.

 

[ADevilYouKhow]

https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/4713938-violent-crime-drop-fbi/

Remember when all you would hear about is crime?

 

[Pressure]

But the point is, no one is expecting Biden to be as popular as he was in 2020.

Like I've never expected him to carry GA, be competitive at all in NC or Ohio.

The question is will he be unpopular to the extent to where he will lose the states he needs to win and I think there are better predictive measure than picking a state that hasn't mattered to guess how that will play in a state that will.

 

[Frump]

I think these polls are a cause for some concern. to completely dismiss them is foolish at the same time they obviously aren’t infallible and Biden has 5 months to campaign/ debate and Trump has 5 months to show the American public once again just who the fukk he is.

So while ignoring every poll or “vibe” is ignorant so is thinking Biden is done and has no chance against someone like Trump

 

[MushroomX]

Harvard telling pollsters to run simulations on AI.

Harvard Scholars Suggest Pollsters Ask Questions to AI Simulations of Voters Because Real People Won't Answer The Phone

With just a fraction of people responding to political polls, Harvard experts are suggesting that pollsters "call" AI chatbots instead.

futurism.com

As the Ash experts point out, Pew found in 2019 — via polling, of course — that only six percent of people responded to political polling calls. That unsurprising figure could well suggest that polling is on its way out, but to these Harvard researchers, it contains the promise of an algorithmic future for the industry.

And what of the systematic wrongness seemingly inherent in AI, as evidenced by the many instances of chatbots "hallucinating"? According to these scholars, that will go away "over time" as AI gets better at "anticipating human responses, and also at knowing when they will be most wrong or uncertain."

We might not hold our breath.