2024 U.S. Presidential General Election Thread

[Conan]

I shouldn't be surprised by this but a lot of people who were shouting about Kamala not being clear about policy are still not discussing policy after she added this section to her webpage...

Not much to discuss. It's normal for a president to have a policy page, even if some of it is great, some is mid, some is abhorrent, and in general it looks like someone fed a prompt into ChatGPT and copy pasted.

What's not normal is a presidential candidate not having a policy page. Even if they're running against a psycho.

 

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

TBH, I believe the NC numbers. Not saying Kamala has it wrapped up but Robinson is a historically bad candidate and the split-ticket trends in NC tell me that if Robinson were to lose by double digits, Kamala would likely squeeze by with a win there..

Plus, Quinnipiac is a great pollster.

People should be happy about that number today.

 

[acri1]

Not much to discuss. It's normal for a president to have a policy page, even if some of it is great, some is mid, some is abhorrent, and in general it looks like someone fed a prompt into ChatGPT and copy pasted.

What's not normal is a presidential candidate not having a policy page. Even if they're running against a psycho.

Kamala had to put together a campaign on historically short notice. It's understandable for some of this stuff to come out later than normal.

 

[the cac mamba]

 

[Outlaw]

I want that Texas flip so bad

 

[Outlaw]

Not much to discuss. It's normal for a president to have a policy page, even if some of it is great, some is mid, some is abhorrent, and in general it looks like someone fed a prompt into ChatGPT and copy pasted.

What's not normal is a presidential candidate not having a policy page. Even if they're running against a psycho.

What’s not normal is to pretend that you’re an American when you’re actually a bloody bloke from the UK

 

[FAH1223]

I'm sorry, but there's no scenario where Trump wins the popular vote. It's just not happening.

His strength in national polls might be coming from blue states

 

[Outlaw]

His strength in national polls might be coming from blue states

If he loses the electoral college but somehow wins the popular vote

 

[No1]

NYT Sienna is an excellent pollster but I also think the new registrations numbers favor Harris. I think that people not understanding polls or just straight up being confused by 2016 has turned them intro the political equivalent of anti-analytics truthers in sports. I think analytics are used wrong - I don’t think the idea of them is wrong.

Let me follow up on this because some people dapped this up a minute ago - so I went and looked at their metrics and they came up with Republicans +3 in voting ID/registration. I don’t think that’s a smart assumption to make and that’s probably why they are out of line with other pollsters. It’s not an insane proposition but I think they’re wrong. They were slightly behind other good pollsters in 2020 and 2022. I think it’s worth considering but I would bet on Harris if you told me to put money on it right now if it takes an R +3 assumption to have her tied.

 

[I Really Mean It]

ok, so, the reason everyone is geeking out over the north carolina numbers is that these results says harris practically has this in the bag if it holds.

taking nc and losing would require an utter collapse in both the rust and sun belt, which is improbable if she’s able to secure that state.

 

[FAH1223]

 

[Frump]

 

[King Static X]

His strength in national polls might be coming from blue states

Yeah maybe but he's not winning the PV.

If he loses the electoral college but somehow wins the popular vote

Trump's not winning the PV.

 

[Saysumthinfunnymike]

I wouldn't necessarily bet on North Carolina but with the numbers that are out there right now, if Kamala were to win NC but then lose PA (the state she's done the worst so far polling wise up north) a situation like that would still get her to 273.

She definitely has more paths than he does.

 

[Bed$tuy]

You post like you’re on estrogen

And then?