LOST IN THE SAUCE
The Sauce Apostle
We can all pack it up it, folks. This race is already called. @BigMoneyGrip knows we got this one in the bag so we can all stop worrying about swing states and independant voters. Biden has it locked.
2024 U.S. Presidential Election Thread
- Thread starter FAH1223
- Start date
Facts
The focus of the media on the "horse race" is idiotic, but I don't get this downplaying of the polls. In every election that has involved Trump, his actual support has been STRONGER than the polls, not weaker. And that includes the election that was mostly mail-in which was supposed to favor Dems (and probably did).
Y'all want this to be about Trump personally, but most elections have revolved around the economy, and the American public's perception of the economy is shyt right now. On top of that, Biden is the single worse candidate of my lifetime, a fuddy octogenarian who wasn't a good campaigner even when he was young, who lost every presidential election he had participated in badly until the DNC swooped in to save him on his 3rd try, and who barely beat Trump by less than 20,000 votes in three states even though he had the advantages of Trump fukking up a pandemic, BLM momentum, mail-in voting, and not having to campaign.
Biden has worse approval ratings right now than any president who has ever won reelection. If we go by historical precedent, Biden is a serious underdog.
Outlaw
New Hope For the HaveNotz
Every election since 2016 has involved Trump and he has underperformed each cycle.
That’s not true.
He’s over performed in his polling average in the battleground states. Both in 2016 and in 2020.
Rapmastermind
Superstar
I can't take this particular statement seriously when the Man he's running against had 34 Felony Convictions Multiple Felony Charges, Participated in Jan 6 and has multiple impeachments. I don't care if Biden is 1,000 years old, he doesn't have the negatives Trump has. Also Trump is 3 years younger and ain't even mentally sharp either. Also why are you acting like Trump didn't "Barely" beat Hillary and lost the Popular vote twice and he got blown out in the Electoral College against Biden? The same thing you are saying about Biden, I can name 30 more things that make Trump a worst candidate. Also the Media has a long history of "Horse Race' political coverage like it's a damn sporting event for ratings. They love Trump for ratings purposes. Also the Polls have been wrong in multiple election cycles.
Outlaw
New Hope For the HaveNotz
What about 2018 and 2022?
“We” implies you want Joe Biden to win, which we know is false. So no, “we” don’t got it in the bag.We can all pack it up it, folks. This race is already called. @BigMoneyGrip knows we got this one in the bag so we can all stop worrying about swing states and independant voters. Biden has it locked.
You're arguing subjectively, not objectively. You "feel" those issues should hurt Trump more, but you can't show that's the case.
Biden is a stutterer and doesn't have the physical or verbal presence that Trump has. Fair or not, Biden looks awful in public (as he only has, it's just getting worse) and Trump looks good even when he sounds like an idiot. A substantial proportion of Biden voters still cringe when Biden appears in public and say he's too old for office. Far fewer Trump supporters feel the same way.
It's absolutely bizarre that you claim Trump "barely" beat Hillary and then say that he got "blown out in the Electoral College" against Biden. Trump won in 2016 by a larger margin that Biden won in 2020.
Trump won by three states - Michigan (0.2% or 11,000 votes), Pennsylvania (0.7% or 44,000 votes) and Wisconsin (0.8% or 23,000 votes). In other words, Hillary needed ~80,000 more votes in three different states, and nearly 1% shift in two of those states.
Biden also won by three states - Georgia (0.2% or 12,000 votes), Arizona (0.3% or 10,000 votes), and Wisconsin (0.7% or 21,000 votes). So Trump only needed ~44,000 votes to defeat Biden, and only one state was more than a 0.3% shift away.
The 2020 election was objectively closer than the 2016 election. Claiming otherwise is pure partisanship.
LOST IN THE SAUCE
The Sauce Apostle
Got any posts from me you'd like to quote to help back up this lie?
I guess if you want to get me on a technicality, what I really want is for Trump and the Republicans not to win.
This is objectively false. Look at the actual states that matter when Trump actually run.
In 2016, the race came down to Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Polls had predicted a 6.5% win for Clinton in Wisconsin, a 3.4% win for Clinton in Michigan, and a 1.9% win for Clinton in Pennsylvania. She lost those states by 0.7%, 0.2%, and 0.3%. So Trump dramatically outperformed his polling in the critical states by 7%, 4%, and 2%.
In 2020, the race came down to Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin. Polls had predicted an 0.9% win for Biden in Arizona, an 0.3% win in Georgia, and a 6.7% win for Biden in Wisconsin. Biden won those states by 0.3%, 0.2%, and 0.7%. So Trump slightly outperformed the polls (0.6% and 0.1%, basically accurate) in Arizona/Georgia, but vastly outperformed by 6% in Wisconsin.
Both years that Trump actually ran, he did better in the crucial battleground states than the polls said he would. He did better than predicted in some other battleground states as well, though those didn't end up being as decisive.
He wasn’t on the ballot!
The GOP runs better with Trump on the ballot.
They nearly won the House in 2020 when all projections were that the Dems would expand the majority.
You mention 2018. The GOP made net gains in the U.S. Senate while losing the U.S. House.
Similar threads
- Poll
