If Trump gets 30% of the black male vote, as one poll suggests, I'll give somebody $1000.
If Trump wins or comes within 5 points of winning the youth vote, as polls suggest, I'll give someone else $1000.
If Trump wins the overall women vote, as some polls show, I'll give someone another $1000.
My point is that since 2016 there's been a collapse in American polling and nobody is being honest about it. Instead of saying hey maybe our data is wrong, they keep pushing this nonsense...unless the nonsense favors Biden. Perfect example: polls are showing Biden winning the elderly vote, and either losing or barely winning the youth vote. This is utter nonsense. Demographics don't shift like that in four years, certainly not ones as established as those two (traditionally republicans win the elderly vote, and democrats win the youth vote). Yet when polls show this I notice the pollsters say that the Biden number is an outlier (which it is) or unlikely, but they don't say the same about Trump winning the youth vote. It's almost as if they are deliberately providing bad information because it feels right to them.
Right now there's a major fukk up with registered voters and likely/established voters. Trump does well when you just poll people registered to vote - a number that includes a large group that regularly do not vote. If you didn't vote in 2020 or 2016, two of the biggest elections of our lives, why would I believe you're voting in 2024? Yet that demographic is allowed to inflate Trump's numbers. Flip side when likely voters are polled, Biden starts leading or is tied. Things could change but right now? I still think Biden wins. And when that happens three things will take place: Trump will refuse to concede (again), republicans will claim fraud (again), and the media will be scrambling to explain how/why they fukked up (again).