WHO WINS?


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10 polls would come out saying Kamala is in the lead 1 will come out saying Trump is winning the popular vote and people start dooming.:dead:

And It's been said in here a million times now that as the election season gets closer to November the polls will tighten up. It almost always happens, we talked about this a month ago...
 

Frump

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People are stupid.

This almost seeks more like an advertisement for trump.

Dumb drunk college students look up and see Trump in the sky they aren’t gonna go home and google “project 25”

Yeah if it said “JD Vance fukks couches” you’d probably have a better chance at it resonating with that crowd

Most people have no idea what project 2025 is. It plays into the whole “ liberal elite” shtick republicans use about Dems being out of touch with average people even though republicans are part of the elite as well but Trump can communicate better with the mouth breathers then Dems can
 

Frump

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She gotta get out there in front of podcast TV etc, I haven't been liking the campaigns schedule since the convention it's like they went silent

I think the goal has been to lay low and let Trump put his foot in his mouth but at some point you have to get out there and get your message across to people who won’t go out of their way to look for it

I feel like the campaign is way too fearful of her saying the wrong thing or that something she says will get spun but so what you can’t run a passive campaign out of fear. Be agressive
 

bnew

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1/1
fukking cowards. We raised 200,000 more signatures than we needed.

Give it back to the states, right? Cowards.


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1/5
BREAKING: Cole Co. judge agrees that the Missouri abortion amendment violates the single subject rule, but is going to allow for an appeal before ordering it’s taken off the ballot. Read the decision here:
/search?q=#moleg

2/5
@KMOV @KCTV5 @kytv @kfvsnews @WGEM

3/5
Defendants tell me “The court’s decision to block Amendment 3 from appearing on the ballot is a profound injustice to the initiative petition process and undermines the rights of the 380,000 Missourians who signed our petition demanding a voice on this critical issue.

4/5
To sum this up as simply as I can: the judge said the proposed amendment is too vague — which is grounds to remove it from the ballot.
But rather than taking it off the ballot right now he’s going to allow proponents to submit another appeal before Tuesday. /search?q=#moleg

5/5
Missouri judge rules to remove abortion question from November ballot


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Foxmulder

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It's better that way.

Too many good polls and Dems will get complacent and not vote.
I agree with that it’s just funny how some will ignore every good poll and freak out over 1 that they don’t like. :mjlol: Anyone thinking this won’t be a close election is delusional. It’s like they expect Trump to lose by 10 points. That would never happen in this climate. Turnout will win the election. If Dems turn out they win.:yeshrug:
 

bnew

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No1

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NYT Sienna is an excellent pollster but I also think the new registrations numbers favor Harris. I think that people not understanding polls or just straight up being confused by 2016 has turned them intro the political equivalent of anti-analytics truthers in sports. I think analytics are used wrong - I don’t think the idea of them is wrong.

The first thing you should do when you see a poll is (1) is this a high rated pollster and how accurate have they been in recent elections, (2) are they connected to one of the parties - i.e. the vast amount of right wing flooding polls in 2022 to make you think there was a red wave, and (3) what are the actual variables they are considering and measuring and if you think they are practical.

If you’re not doing all of that you’re just practicing some sort of polling religiosity or polling atheism one way or the other and neither is a sensible position. Saying “this poll got it wrong” without explaining how the poll got it wrong is the equivalent to saying an NFL QB made the wrong read without knowing what play call or coverage was.

Side bar: I literally oversee vendor contracts with certain polling firms and the high rated ones are paid a lot because they are good.
 
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