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Teams that won't miss the playoffs in 2015
The Seattle Mariners, Cleveland Indians and New York Mets fell short of the playoffs this season. In fact, the Mets fell well short.
But I predict all three of these teams will make the playoffs in 2015.
Granted, these early predictions are based on the assumption that all three organizations will add the necessary two to three pieces they need this offseason, because all three are that close to playing October baseball, just as the Kansas City Royals, Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioleswere at this time a year ago, when I predicted all three would make the playoffs (which they did).
The Mariners, Indians and Mets have more in common than you might realize. First of all, they all have the starting rotations in place to win next year without having to make a single move this winter. Second, they all need more offense in the middle of their lineups and have the trade weapons and/or cash to make these necessary acquisitions. Third, they all have enough in their farm systems to withstand in-season injuries or to trade to fill their needs.
So let's examine what went wrong for these three teams this year and why they should eclipse their 2014 performances in 2015:
Seattle Mariners
The Mariners' pitching staff led the American League in ERA and opponents' batting average-against while also finishing in the top five in WHIP, saves and strikeouts. Defensively, they made the least amount of errors in the league and were a top-5 defensive team overall. Felix Hernandez had another Cy Young Award-caliber season (15-6 record, 2.14 ERA, 0.92 WHIP). Hisashi Iwakuma was brilliant again, with 15 wins and a 3.52 ERA, while Chris Young became one of the most undervalued free agents from last year's class, adding 12 wins and a 3.65 ERA.
Meanwhile, Robinson Cano lived up to his free-agent contract in his first year with the Mariners (.836 OPS), and Kyle Seager proved once again he's one of the best overall third basemen in the league, belting out 25 home runs and driving in 96 runs while playing stellar defense.
Why they fell short: The Mariners' offense is what prevented them from playing October baseball: The M's tied for 11th in the AL in runs scored and were dead last in OPS despite the strong seasons from Cano and Seager. The Mariners got little offensive production from first base and designated hitter, so they finally cut ties with first baseman Justin Smoak -- the Blue Jays subsequently claimed him off waivers last month -- and also said goodbye to the disappointing Kendrys Morales. The Mariners' outfield was solid defensively, but the unit also wasn't productive offensively, both in terms of getting in base and driving in runs. In fact, the Mariners didn't have a single outfielder hit 15 home runs or drive in 70 runs.
Why they'll succeed in 2014: GM Jack Zduriencik has the support from ownership to spend money this offseason to improve the team's offense and add a starting pitcher. He has a strong farm system from which to deal, so he's not limited to the free-agent market. That said, the Mariners are expected to pursue some of the top free-agent bats this offseason, including Victor Martinez, Adam LaRoche, Billy Butler, Nelson Cruz and Melky Cabrera.
Also, the Mariners expect Mike Zunino to continue to develop offensively for them behind the plate and are hoping pitcher Taijuan Walker will be healthy and ready to live up to his top-of-rotation potential, which would give them an even stronger rotation next season. They are just three moves -- two bats and one arm -- away from having playoff baseball in Seattle for the first time since Lou Piniella was their manager in 2001 (the year they won 116 games).
Cleveland Indians
But there were also a lot of positives from this year's team, including Michael Brantley's breakout season (.327/.385/.506 with 20 homers, 97 RBIs and 23 stolen bases) and Yan Gomes developing into an everyday catcher, belting 21 home runs with 74 RBIs and playing above-average defense.Jose Ramirez also established himself as the everyday shortstop, upgrading the team's overall defense. Lonnie Chisenhall also proved he was ready to be an everyday player at third base, finishing with a .770 OPS.
Why they fell short: The Indians didn't get the expected performance from many of their key veteran players. Jason Kipnis was their biggest disappointment, hitting .240 with just six home runs, while Nick Swisher dealt with injuries and was limited to 97 games, a .208 average and eight home runs, and Michael Bourn played in just 106 games due to hamstring injuries, posting a lowly .314 OBP with only 10 stolen bases. Former stars Asdrubal Cabrera and Justin Masterson were dealt at the trade deadline after they also had down seasons.
Why they'll succeed in 2014: The Indians have all five starting pitchers returning, and all are under control for at least three more years. Their rotation was the second-youngest in baseball last year, and yet was the best in the majors in the second half of the season while posting the second-best FIP for the year (behind only the Nationals). Oh, and their pitching staff as a whole set the MLB strikeout record. Corey Kluber developed into an ace last year, while Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar and Trevor Bauer seem to have figured things out.
The Indians will start the year with Ramirez at shortstop, but don't be surprised if prospect Francisco Lindor makes his debut in mid-June and quickly becomes a Rookie of the Year candidate. The Indians need comeback years by Kipnis, Swisher and Bourn, and if they can sign or trade for a bat or two and add bullpen depth, they'll be a real threat for one of the AL wild-card berths again in 2015.
New York Mets
Why they fell short: The injury to Matt Harvey was the biggest reason, but sub-par seasons from David Wright and Curtis Granderson surely didn't help. The Mets also got very little production from shortstop and left field. Ruben Tejada hit just .237 with five home runs, while Chris Youngwas such a free-agent bust that the Mets released him mid-season.
Why they'll succeed in 2014: Harvey reportedly has recovered from Tommy John surgery, and all indications are he'll be back to 100 percent by Opening Day, giving the Mets their ace and true No. 1 starter. Harvey will be anchoring a deep and strong rotation ready to compete for a divisional title or at the very least a wild-card berth. He will be followed in the rotation by deGrom, Zack Wheeler, Dillon Gee, Bartolo Colon and Jonathon Niese, in some order. The Mets hired former Yankees hitting coach Kevin Long, which should at the very least help Granderson for next season. Wright will be healthy once again and is due for a banner season.
The Mets need to add a left field bat, and whether it's Melky Cabrera in free agency or Yoenis Cespedes via trade (for a starting pitcher), it's a must if they're going to win. They need to improve shortstop as well, and free agents Asdrubal Cabrera, Stephen Drew and Jed Lowrie could be possibilities. All three would be definite upgrades, although none of them are perfect solutions. The Mets also need a veteran reliever, and there are plenty of good options on the free-agent market, such as Sergio Romo, Pat Neshek and Andrew Miller.
Here's how Yankees handle A-Rod fiasco
The Miami Herald story on Alex Rodriguez confirmed what many probably already assumed: that his ardent and angry defense of 2013, his words and his legal strategy, was spectacular deceit.
And by spectacular, I mean sheer enormity, not quality. He always seemed as transparent as a 3-year-old denying an illicit cookie raid with a face smeared in chocolate.
Rodriguez has the tens of millions of dollars needed in an attempt to make a mockery of Major League Baseball's drug-testing system, and he tried, without any regard to the collateral damage.
Because we all really want to forget the ridiculous circus of his Biogenesis defense, highlighted by the chanting and sign-holding A-Rod commission in front of the offices of Major League Baseball, we won't have a full recounting here of the months of untruths.
But it is worth touching on a couple of the most brazen aspects of his conduct to define the lengths of his duplicity, which, with the benefit of hindsight, looks like one giant web of deceit.
1. Michael Weiner, the leader of the players' association, was dying throughout 2013, and after the Biogenesis scandal broke, he represented the implicated players as they faced the evidence and the penalties. One by one, from Ryan Braun to Nelson Cruz, the defendants agreed to what amounted to plea bargains. Everybody, that is, except Alex Rodriguez, who continued to fight the charges all the way through the absurd and protracted arbitration hearing that was highlighted by his walk-out.
That Weiner had to spend unnecessary time in the last days of his life propping up Rodriguez's ridiculous dishonesty, with the due diligence and good faith and care that Weiner applied to his life's work, is heartbreaking.
And then Rodriguez, apparently knowing that the union's defense on his behalf was built on the sands of his lies, had the temerity to show up at Weiner's funeral.
2. As Ian O'Connor noted in his column Wednesday, Rodriguez had been making appearances on behalf of the Taylor Hooton Foundation -- which is devoted to the fight against PED use -- and speaking to kids about the dangers of steroids while simultaneously whispering out of the other side of his mouth to Anthony Bosch about how to best juice up and avoid detection. He used the integrity of the foundation, created after the death of the founder's son, to burnish his image as the remorseful and rehabilitated A-Rod, and all the while he was taking PEDs.
3. He cheated his brethren in the players' association, which adopted the drug-testing rules in an effort to create a level playing field. Long before his admission to federal agents, a lot of his peers assumed he was lying, which is probably why Ryan Dempster threw at Rodriguez over and over in August 2013.
In the pages of Rodriguez's legal filing in early January, this is what Rodriguez maintained: "I have been clear that I did not use performance-enhancing drugs as alleged in the notice of discipline … and in order to prove it, I will take this fight to federal court."
Less than three weeks later, he was spilling the truth to the federal agents after making a deal.
Some athletes have used PEDs and then confessed immediately after being caught, such as Andy Pettitte. Some have been caught and then copped to the truth only so far as their personal fortunes were not jeopardized, such as Jason Giambi. Others have denied and denied until being legally cornered into a confession, like track star Marion Jones.
But if a Hall of Fame of PED users were constructed, then Lance Armstrong, Braun and Rodriguez would have their own separate wing, for the cynical manner in which they were willing to attack and take down others in order to cover their deceit.
Armstrong, at least, is fading into history. But in a few months, Rodriguez is scheduled to return from his yearlong suspension and report to Yankees camp at age 39 (assuming Major League Baseball doesn't open another investigation built on his newly revealed testimony).
The Yankees owe Rodriguez at least $61 million over the next three seasons as part of the 10-year, $275 million deal he signed with the team in the fall of 2007. As it stands, he promises to overshadow everything else and everybody else for the seven weeks of spring training and into the 2015 season, and unless the Yankees see a real value in this infamy, the chances of the team drawing on-the-field return from its continued association with Rodriguez appear dubious.
Over a five-year period of 2009 to 2013 -- before he missed all of 2014 -- Rodriguez missed a total of 284 games. In fact, the last time he appeared in more than 138 games in a season, Joe Torre was his manager.
In his 44 games of 2013, Rodriguez, who has had significant surgeries on both hips, batted .244, showing greatly limited range at third base. The Yankees have so much doubt about Rodriguez as a player that they will not count on him going into spring training. They will plan for somebody else to play third base regularly, perhaps Chase Headley if they can re-sign him, and they have Mark Teixeira at first base and Carlos Beltran at designated hitter.
Rodriguez could surprise, given his extraordinary athleticism and his sincere love for preparation. With absolutely nothing to lose, after at least two rounds of PED use in his career, he could try to beat the testing again in an effort to be great -- as Armstrong did, in his last return to the Tour de France.
But there is a higher ground for the Yankees and owner Hal Steinbrenner to take this.
A lot of teams in baseball, the Yankees among them, have long attached conduct clauses to their standard player contracts in spite of the general perception within the industry that the language of the team clauses is superseded by the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. That validity of the conduct clauses has never really been challenged; nobody knows for sure whether they are at all enforceable.
Could any team have a better opportunity to test-drive a conduct clause?
Part of the reason the Yankees haven't cut Rodriguez yet is that ownership is apparently not ready to assume it must pay him the last $61 million owed to him. Maybe he'll be physically unable to play, and insurance will account for a large portion of his remaining salary. Maybe he'll quit on his own. Maybe he'll be suspended again.
But for a franchise worth billions of dollars, keeping Rodriguez on the roster -- as the current face of the franchise, whether the Yankees like it or not -- in the hope of recouping some insurance dollars seems incredibly passive and penny-foolish.
There could be more value in seizing the high ground.
What Steinbrenner could do is say:
Enough.
In light of the latest information about Alex Rodriguez's reported admission to federal investigators, we have a more complete rendering of exactly how far he went in deceiving the Yankees' organization and casting what we believe to be aspersions on others, including those on our medical staff.
Rodriguez will not play for the Yankees again, and we intend to explore all legal remedies at our disposal.
If Hal Steinbrenner attacked the A-Rod quandary this way, the worst thing that could happen is that the franchise would have to pay off the money already owed to Rodriguez, which is probably where it's headed anyway. It's very possible that any court challenge built on the conduct clause would fail.
On the other hand, Steinbrenner could gain a measure of respect from a Yankees fan base that is generally weary of Rodriguez. The brethren of MLB teams would silently root for the Yankees and for the conduct clause, which will forever be worthless until tested.
If Steinbrenner plays this right, Rodriguez could make a final, lasting contribution to the sport, and something worthwhile could evolve from behavior particularly appalling.
Juliet Macur feels sorry for the Yankees. The Yankees need to get him to take a walk, writes Mike Lupica.
This A-Rod farce is a masterpiece, writes Mike Vaccaro. A-Rod proved he has been lying all along, writes Tara Sullivan. No reality show can top A-Rod, writes Bob Nightengale.
Should Ramirez change positions?
Most of the Hanley Ramirez conversations with evaluators include some version of this common knowledge: He cannot be an everyday shortstop anymore for a contender, and there is real doubt, based on his time playing alongside Jose Reyes in Miami, as to whether he can even be a viable third baseman.
Some execs linger on the point that Ramirez has always been an infielder, always wanted to be an infielder, and to extricate him out of the infield may create an unhappy player.
So here is a thought for Ramirez as he begins down the road of free agency: He could simply announce right now that he is ready to play in left or right field.
If he does this, embracing the idea of a position change, he will be viewed within a completely different context by club executives, and could make them more comfortable in offering a long-term contract.
If Ramirez says flatly that he's ready to switch positions right now, then suddenly he could be transformed into the most attractive offensive player on the market other than Victor Martinez and Russell Martin. In 2014, when high-end pitchers seem to outnumber the high-end position players by a ratio of about 3 to 1, that can pay.
Ramirez's shortstop defense last season was terrible, and some in the Dodgers organization felt he was distracted by his impending free agency as well as his relatively slow start. But he played regularly, and even in what turned out to be one of the worst seasons of his career, Ramirez put up impressive numbers, with 48 extra-base hits in 128 games and an .817 OPS. To put that last number into perspective, that would've ranked 11th-best among all outfielders last season. But Ramirez has been playing the more taxing position, and in 2013, Ramirez had a 1.040 OPS, with 47 extra-base hits in 86 games.
Ramirez, 31, can still hit, and he posted those numbers in recent seasons while playing in the pitcher's haven that is Dodger Stadium. Last year, Ramirez had a .779 OPS in home games and an .852 OPS on the road.
As a left fielder, Ramirez would be a tremendous match for the Seattle Mariners as a right-handed hitter who can bat either right in front of or right behind Robinson Cano. The Giants could be in the market for a left fielder, with the departure of Mike Morse, and if Pablo Sandoval leaves as a free agent and Ramirez was vetted by the San Francisco veterans, maybe he could help the Giants.
The Mets also are in the market for a good-hitting outfielder, as are Detroit and maybe the Cubs.
Around the league
- Speaking of the Mets, there are signs that they'll be aggressive, with at least one signing and perhaps via trade. Given the strengths of the New York organization, it would appear to be a great fit with the Cubs in a deal involving Starlin Castro, who probably would cost the Mets the kind of front-line pitchers the Cubs seek, something in the likes of Jacob deGrom, who is expected to be named NL Rookie of the Year, or Zack Wheeler.
- Not surprisingly, the Giants are interested in reinvesting in Jake Peavy, who pitched well for San Francisco in the last two months of the regular season.
- Also not surprisingly, news of the Marlins' extension talks with Giancarlo Stanton has dripped out through the Miami organization. President of baseball operations Mike Hill says the Marlins have not established any deadlines.
Miami wants to keep Stanton and build around him, but ultimately, if these contract talks fail, the Marlins will want everybody in the greater Miami area to understand that they made a serious effort to retain the slugger.
- Contracts of $100 million or more for pitchers carry a lot of risk, Barry Svrluga writes.
- The Royals are coming around to the idea of retaining Billy Butler, writes Sam Mellinger. Mike Moustakas is locked in as the team's third baseman for next season.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Astros traded a young pitcher for catcher Hank Conger. Now Conger and Jason Castro will join forces, writes Evan Drellich.
2. The Pirates shook up their coaching staff, writes Bill Brink.
3. Michael Young joined the Rangers' staff.
NL East
- The Nationals have their eyes on some free agents from Cuba.
NL Central
- The Pirates can weather the loss of Russell Martin, writes Rob Rossi.
- The Reds need a backup plan for Todd Frazier.
- Jeff Gordon has 10 offseason questions about the Cardinals.
- There won't be much movement on the Cubs' coaching staff.
NL West
- Nick Groke doles out some player grades for the Rockies.
- Andrew Friedman doesn't just go by the numbers.
AL East
- The Red Sox must adapt, writes John Tomase.
- Dustin Pedroia feels there are a lot of IOUs to be dispensed.
- Nelson Cruz says returning to the Orioles is his first choice.
- Here's what the Rays might be looking for in a manager, writes Marc Topkin.
AL Central
- Indians manager Terry Francona is where he wants to be.
AL West
- Kyle Seager's hard work paid off.
- The Angels intend to hold the bottom line in place again, writes Mike DiGiovanna. In fact, if the reports are accurate, the Angels, Dodgers, Yankees and Phillies, among others, will not be involved in pursuit of the high-end pitchers.
Lastly
- There is sad news about former pitcher Brad Halsey, who reportedly died as a result of a 100-foot fall.
And today will be better than yesterday.
- Speaking of the Mets, there are signs that they'll be aggressive, with at least one signing and perhaps via trade. Given the strengths of the New York organization, it would appear to be a great fit with the Cubs in a deal involving Starlin Castro, who probably would cost the Mets the kind of front-line pitchers the Cubs seek, something in the likes of Jacob deGrom, who is expected to be named NL Rookie of the Year, or Zack Wheeler.
- Not surprisingly, the Giants are interested in reinvesting in Jake Peavy, who pitched well for San Francisco in the last two months of the regular season.
- Also not surprisingly, news of the Marlins' extension talks with Giancarlo Stanton has dripped out through the Miami organization. President of baseball operations Mike Hill says the Marlins have not established any deadlines.
Miami wants to keep Stanton and build around him, but ultimately, if these contract talks fail, the Marlins will want everybody in the greater Miami area to understand that they made a serious effort to retain the slugger.
- Contracts of $100 million or more for pitchers carry a lot of risk, Barry Svrluga writes.
- The Royals are coming around to the idea of retaining Billy Butler, writes Sam Mellinger. Mike Moustakas is locked in as the team's third baseman for next season.
Moves, deals and decisions
1. The Astros traded a young pitcher for catcher Hank Conger. Now Conger and Jason Castro will join forces, writes Evan Drellich.
2. The Pirates shook up their coaching staff, writes Bill Brink.
3. Michael Young joined the Rangers' staff.
NL East
- The Nationals have their eyes on some free agents from Cuba.
NL Central
- The Pirates can weather the loss of Russell Martin, writes Rob Rossi.
- The Reds need a backup plan for Todd Frazier.
- Jeff Gordon has 10 offseason questions about the Cardinals.
- There won't be much movement on the Cubs' coaching staff.
NL West
- Nick Groke doles out some player grades for the Rockies.
- Andrew Friedman doesn't just go by the numbers.
AL East
- The Red Sox must adapt, writes John Tomase.
- Dustin Pedroia feels there are a lot of IOUs to be dispensed.
- Nelson Cruz says returning to the Orioles is his first choice.
- Here's what the Rays might be looking for in a manager, writes Marc Topkin.
AL Central
- Indians manager Terry Francona is where he wants to be.
AL West
- Kyle Seager's hard work paid off.
- The Angels intend to hold the bottom line in place again, writes Mike DiGiovanna. In fact, if the reports are accurate, the Angels, Dodgers, Yankees and Phillies, among others, will not be involved in pursuit of the high-end pitchers.
Lastly
- There is sad news about former pitcher Brad Halsey, who reportedly died as a result of a 100-foot fall.
And today will be better than yesterday.
Head coaches on the hot seat
We're at the point in the NFL season now where every team has at least played eight games. And you can certainly get a pretty clear picture at this juncture of where teams are trending -- up or down.
With that being the case, you also can get an idea of which coaches will likely have the arrow pointed at them, and who deserves praise and blame for the direction that each NFL team is headed.
Who needs to win this season in order to stay for another season?
I checked in again with various NFL executives in order to gather opinions of what we might see happening in early January.
Here are the coaches with the hottest seats in the NFL:
Hot
Mike Smith, Atlanta Falcons
I had Smith on the hot seat to begin the season because the team took a step back last season after having a very nice run over four of the previous five. Yes, he's in some ways a victim of his own success. But some NFL execs said Smith could eventually take the fall if things didn't improve.
While injury issues were certainly part of last season's problems, and again this season, owner Arthur Blank has clearly made his feelings known publicly about this season's problems. And as one longtime NFL executive said to me this week, it's never a good thing when your owner makes negative comments after losses, which Blank has done lately.
Smith is highly respected in league circles, but the Falcons don't seem to be improving in many areas, which is troubling considering two years ago they were one of the NFL's best teams.
In the end, unless the Falcons turn their season around, the feeling is that Blank will make some changes, and some of those changes could start with his coaching staff. Blank said he will make his evaluations after the season ends, which is typically the way most teams do it.
Tony Sparano, Oakland Raiders
Owner Mark Davis is believed to be looking for a big name to replace head coach Dennis Allen, who was fired after the team got off to an 0-4 start.
Davis, according to league sources, was checking into Allen's possible replacements long before GM Reggie McKenzie relieved Allen of his coaching duties.
Sparano, who is currently the interim coach, is well-liked by the team's front office, sources said. And had he gotten the team to at least approach the .500 mark, it might have been possible for him to get a serious look. But with the team now 0-8, and a daunting schedule coming up, it's not a given that the Raiders will win a single game this season. Changes are coming.
Warm
Rex Ryan, New York Jets
Ryan is almost certain to post his fourth straight non-winning and non-playoff season, but you'd be hard pressed to blame him for most of the team's failures, which is why he's listed as warm.
While Ryan currently owns a lifetime record under .500 (43-46), he doesn't pick the players. NFL executives say GM John Idzik has made too many poor personnel decisions and should take the brunt of the blame for the poor results during his two seasons as the top football executive for the team.
Team insiders continue to say owner Woody Johnson still adores Ryan, so the feeling is that Idzik could wind up taking the fall for the ongoing struggles of the team.
But Johnson's insistence that Idzik had to keep Ryan as his head coach when Idzik took over as GM wasn't exactly the way things should have been done. The coach and GM clearly don't match up philosophically.
The bottom line is Johnson still appears to be solidly in Ryan's corner, but the Jets don't seem to be close to improving this season, so Ryan can't be considered totally safe to return for his seventh season with the team.
Doug Marrone, Buffalo Bills
With a new owner on board, the belief coming into the season among some NFL execs was that the team would have to earn a playoff berth -- the Bills' first since 1999 -- in order for Marrone to save his job.
While those close to owner Terry Pegula say he's a patient man, as he was when he bought the NHL's Buffalo Sabres in 2011, he also has learned a lot from that experience.
You never want to wait until it's too late to bring in the right people, but Marrone at least deserves a chance to get the team into the playoffs in his second season. Team insiders say that not everyone seemed to be on the same page coming into the season (before Pegula bought the team) on how things should be done in football operations, but things have at least settled down a little considering the team has a winning record (5-3) at the midway point.
Lukewarm
Joe Philbin, Miami Dolphins
It has taken the third-year head coach a long time to start getting his players to reach their potential, but it may finally be starting to happen this season.
The Dolphins have won three games in a row and it's widely believed that the team has mostly underachieved under Philbin. The belief in NFL circles is that the Dolphins have a roster filled with talented players, but until earlier this season, they weren't performing at the level they should have been.
Third-year QB Ryan Tannehill, after playing very inconsistent football through his first two seasons, has started to emerge as the player most personnel evaluators thought he'd be. And Philbin's decision to hire former Eagles quarterbacks coach Bill Lazor as his offensive coordinator has turned out to be a very good one.
The feeling is that as long as the Dolphins are in the playoff hunt in Weeks 16-17, Philbin should be able to come back for his fourth season, but it's certainly not a lock, either. Eleven teams realistically are still in the pursuit of the six AFC spots.
Jason Garrett, Dallas Cowboys
You won't find any NFL owner more in a head coach's corner than Cowboys owner Jerry Jones.
While rival NFL executives continue to tell me that Garrett deserves to be very much on the hot seat due to his overall record (35-30) and the fact that he hasn't taken the team to the playoffs once during his coaching tenure, those executives also know how hard it is to handle Jones on a day-to-day basis. Some say Garrett is too nice of a guy, and probably would be a better assistant than head coach.
Jones is the only NFL owner who acts as the team's GM, and because Jones has no true background in player evaluation (he bought the team and later took over full personnel control after head coach Jimmy Johnson left), it's not an enviable position to be in as a head coach. NFL execs say that what you want in an owner is for him to stay out of personnel decisions and just write the checks -- but that will never happen with Jones. His hands are on everything; personnel, coaching and roster decisions.
Garrett has a decent chance to post his first winning season this year, in what will be his fourth full season as head coach. And until Jones hints that Garrett might be in danger -- which he has never done -- Garrett probably will continue to hang around.
Safe for now
Jeff Fisher, St. Louis Rams
I had him on the preseason list because Fisher had not had a winning season in his past four seasons as a head coach (two with the Tennessee Titans, two with the Rams). He's now likely headed for his fifth straight non-playoff and non-winning season at the helm.
The bottom line is that Fisher has not been to the playoffs since 2008, though his lifetime coaching record of 17 games above .500 isn't bad by most standards. Some NFL execs say he's one of the NFL's most overrated head coaches.
While you can't blame him for the awful injury issues he's dealt with over the past few seasons (losing starting QB Sam Bradford), the team needs to start making progress at some point, especially when you consider it's not a lock that they'll be playing in St. Louis past this season because of their stadium lease situation.
Tom Coughlin, New York Giants
While the Giants are headed for their third straight non-playoff season, league insiders say there's simply no way he's in danger of losing his job.
The reasons are simple: He gets the most out of his players, the players respect him and the team's ownership will let him walk away when the time comes that he doesn't want to coach anymore. Coughlin, a two-time Super Bowl champion head coach with the Giants, is signed through next season.
Notes
• Early returns on Raiders' Mack are promising
When the Oakland Raiders selected Khalil Mack with their first-round pick earlier this year, the thought in league circles was that he might struggle a bit as a linebacker in the Raiders' 4-3 defensive scheme because he played in a 3-4 in college. And some executives said prior to the draft that he seemed to lack coverage instincts on tape.
However, a source who studied his game tape recently while doing some advance scouting said that the first-year player had been one of the most impressive rookies he's seen on tape so far this season.
What stood out? His pass-rushing ability was first and foremost, but he has improved at setting the edge against the run and his ability to cover tight ends might be his most surprising attribute, according to the source.
• Veteran WR Burleson earning money while not playing
Veteran WR Nate Burleson is probably the best available free agent at his position and he's certainly still open to playing this season, but he's still earning money while not currently taking any hits from opposing defenders.
Burleson, who signed a one-year deal with the Browns earlier this year before the team released him in late August, had $285,000 of his $955,000 base salary fully guaranteed.
When adding his signing bonus of $65,000 to the total take, he'll earn $350,000 this season no matter what happens, in addition to whatever money he'll make as television analyst. And if he signs with another team for a playoff run, he'll be able to make even more money.
Midseason NFL rookie rankings
A good number of players are at the midway point in the season, so I figured it's fair to hand out a little bit of hardware (I'm pretty sure neither of the midyear winners will see he has won a Kiper award and call it a season). What I will say is that, among the best, we have a really good positional mix across offense and defense, and I'm particularly impressed with how well we've seen some quarterbacks play, as it's a famously tough transition position.
That all said, here are the usual parameters:
• This is a measure for all games this season, not just last Sunday.
• Total snap count matters. Staying on the field is a measure of value.
• Positional value matters, but overall performance and impact on the team matter more.
• Relative value matters. I ask: Would this player be a starter on most teams, or on a good team? Remember, I've hit reset on these players as far as future value; this is all about production.
Here's my latest ranking of the top 15 rookies in the NFL:
1. C.J. Mosley, ILB, Baltimore Ravens
(Midseason defensive rookie of the year)
The temptation here is to push Mosley down a bit because he's playing a position that, at least traditionally, has been one where guys have the chance to transition quickly and succeed if you put enough talent in front of them and keep blockers occupied. But Mosley has been even better than good. I think he's been in the neighborhood of Luke Kuechly, Patrick Willis, Bobby Wagner -- in other words, playing his position as well as anybody in the NFL plays his position. He leads all rookies in tackles, and leads his team. He also has a pair of interceptions.
2. Zack Martin, OG, Dallas Cowboys
(Midseason offensive rookie of the year)
Although the Dallas rushing game has been a huge part of the team's success this season, Martin hasn't just been good in creating a push there; he's also been good in providing protection in the passing game. The former Notre Dame tackle has adjusted with ease to the move to guard, and I've seen enough failures in that move over the years to simply pass it off as an easy adjustment. He's been great, and it has directly affected the fortunes of his team.
3. Khalil Mack, OLB, Oakland Raiders
I know I'm going to hear arguments that I have Mack too low, which shows just how good he's been. Although he has delivered plenty of pressure, I'll be a little old-school and dock him just slightly for not yet having a sack to his name; but other than that, it's hard to have any complaints. Where Mack has really been fantastic is against the run. When I go through Oakland games on a play-to-play basis, I'm seeing the most consistent player on that defense.
4. Joel Bitonio, OG, Cleveland Browns
He's already one of the better run-blocking guards in the NFL, and I don't think the fact that Cleveland's rushing average per carry has dipped this season has anything to do with him. The loss of Alex Mack has hurt, and minus Josh Gordon -- and with a green QB -- teams are simply stacking the box. Bitonio has been great, and he should continue on this path.
5. Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills
I realize there are other rookies in this class who have more catches (Brandin Cooks) or just as many touchdowns (Kelvin Benjamin). But I have Watkins a tick ahead of both because he's leading the rookie class in receiving yards and has 16 more targets than any other player on his team -- which is now a 5-3 team. He also has fewer drops than Benjamin, who's in a similar argument for alpha-receiver status in his team's offense. Watkins has had ups and downs, but he also has made huge plays, and those have helped Buffalo win.
6. Jason Verrett, CB, San Diego Chargers
Snap count matters, and the fact that Verrett's is now down from the last time we did these rankings is reflected in his drop. He's been outstanding when he's on the field, showing the chops of a veteran, but he's under 250 total snaps for the season, and could dip here further as he works through a shoulder injury. That said, when he plays, Verrett hasn't been far off a Pro Bowl level.
7. Aaron Donald, DT, St. Louis Rams
It was only a matter of time for Donald. Through five weeks, he hadn't played more than 30 snaps in a game, and I wrote a few weeks ago that, if he was simply on the field more, the production would accelerate. He has 2.0 sacks and already leads the team in tackles for loss. What I think is really notable is how he clearly occupies defenders and frees things up for others. He's a force and could be at the top of this list by season's end.
8. Anthony Barr, OLB, Minnesota Vikings
Anybody who watched the NFL last week saw Barr's overtime play that got Minnesota the win: a strip of Austin Seferian-Jenkins that Barr picked up and returned for a touchdown in overtime. Although that might have been a welcome moment for some, Barr has been good all year in what's been a fantastic performance because he has had to adjust to a different role -- playing 4-3 OLB instead of doing the pass rushing he was at UCLA.
9. Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers
Benjamin is similar to Watkins in that he's been both inconsistent and absolutely essential to his team. The Panthers drafted him and asked him to step in and be a No. 1 right away, and he has led them in targets and is second only to veteran tight end Greg Olsen in receptions. He also has nine receptions of 20-plus yards, providing Cam Newton the downfield threat he needs.
10. Corey Linsley, C, Green Bay Packers
He's been on the field every snap of the season and has been solid taking over at center for the Packers. Although I wouldn't say he's been dominant, what's impressive about Linsley is that he looks as if he's been playing for a handful of years and, aside from Josh Sitton, is as dependable as anybody the Packers have up front. He is looking like a steal, having been selected in the fifth round.
11. Preston Brown, OLB, Buffalo Bills
Not only does he lead the Bills in tackles, with 60, but he's been flying around in coverage.
12. Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints
He doesn't have the yardage so far, but Cooks is a main target of Drew Brees -- he has 52 targets, next to Jimmy Graham's 54.
13. E.J. Gaines, CB, St. Louis Rams
He leads the Rams in passes defensed and is an every-down player at this point. He could keep rising.
14. Kyle Fuller, CB, Chicago Bears
He has dropped because he's not playing as many snaps as he had, but the Bears' secondary problems go beyond him -- mainly to safety.
15. Derek Carr, QB, Oakland Raiders
Given what's going on with the Jets and Jaguars, you could argue Carr is no longer a QB who could start for only one team. The Raiders aren't consistently competitive, but he's been decent.
Notables in the mix, in no particular order
• Taylor Lewan, OT, Tennessee Titans: He has played full snaps the past few weeks and has played well. Moving up.
• Bashaud Breeland, CB, Washington Redskins: Was outstanding in defending Dez Bryant on Monday night. Lots of natural talent.
• Allen Robinson, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars: Has 39 receptions; nobody else on the Jags has more than 23.
• Branden Oliver, RB, San Diego Chargers: A tremendous two-week stretch when called upon, he has proved he can stick around.
• Jerick McKinnon, RB, Minnesota Vikings: Maybe the best overall athlete in the entire draft; he won't disappoint when he's a true No. 1.
• Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Quietly, he has just one fewer reception than Vincent Jackson.
• Chandler Catanzaro, K, Arizona Cardinals: Hasn't missed a kick, including going 6-for-6 from beyond 40 yards.
• Bradley Roby, CB, Denver Broncos: Hasn't been great the past couple of weeks, but he has had a solid start to his career.
• Calvin Pryor, S, New York Jets: Will get better in coverage, but he's not afraid to come downhill.
• Avery Williamson, ILB, Tennessee Titans: Didn't play to start the season, but now is a guy the Titans rely upon.
• Deone Bucannon, S, Arizona Cardinals: He has had a couple of stinkers, but the guy will lay a hit and is going to be pretty good in coverage. He makes plays.
• Aaron Lynch, OLB, San Francisco 49ers: Has flashed as a pass-rusher. Bright future.
• John Brown, WR, Arizona Cardinals: Just 22 catches so far, but his role is expanding. More big plays to come.
• Jack Mewhort, OG, Indianapolis Colts: Effective if not outstanding when he's been on the field.
• Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers: With him now third on the Packers in receptions, you can see Aaron Rodgers' chemistry with him improving.
• Teddy Bridgewater, QB, Minnesota Vikings: A big-time drive got the Vikings a tie in a game they ultimately won Sunday. He's getting close to really being comfortable.
• Jordan Matthews, WR, Philadelphia Eagles: Now has 29 receptions, and could more than double that with his second-half tally.
• Ja'Wuan James, OT, Miami Dolphins: Has had some ups and downs, but I think the Dolphins are pleased with his performance so far.
• Jace Amaro, TE, New York Jets: Who knows what he'll see in terms of targets, given the QB situation, but it's clear he'll be on the field.
• Lamarcus Joyner, CB, St. Louis Rams: He was a versatile player in college, and provides value to the Rams' defense even as he's getting adjusted.
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Cavs need better rim protection
While the Cleveland Cavaliers try to figure out how to share the ball to maximize their offensive talent, an issue during their disappointing 1-3 start, it's easy to overlook one of the biggest questions about the Cavaliers entering this season: rim protection. Make no mistake, however: Even if Cleveland starts dominating as expected on offense, it will have to improve its defense in the paint to build the top-10 defense that has generally been required to win an NBA championship (see item 2).
Through four games, the Cavaliers' defense sits in the NBA's bottom five on a per-possession basis. Cleveland also resides there in terms of field goal percentage allowed around the rim. Per NBA.com/Stats, the Cavaliers have allowed opponents to shoot 57.6 percent inside 5 feet with a defender in proximity, far worse than the league average of 52.0 percent.
Tuesday's loss at Portland exposed another shaky element of Cleveland's frontcourt: defending post-ups. Per Synergy Sports, the Blazers averaged 1.29 points per play on shots, turnovers or trips to the free throw line created out of the post. And while that number was inflated by shooting guard Wesley Matthews posting up smaller perimeter defenders, Portland scored 14 points out of 12 post-ups against big men Kevin Love (who struggled to contest shots) and Tristan Thompson (who struggled to maintain position).
Right now, the only reliable interior defender for new Cavaliers head coach David Blatt is center Anderson Varejao. Varejao is a stout post defender, and although he's not a particularly good shot-blocker, his positioning and willingness to take charges make him a rim protector nonetheless. In the early going, Varejao has allowed the lowest shooting percentage around the rim as a primary defender of Cleveland's bigs (46.7 percent), an improvement from his performance in a larger sample last season.
The problem is that the Cavaliers can't count on 82 games from Varejao, who has missed at least 17 due to injury each of the past four seasons and has played more than 65 games just three times in his 10-year career. If Varejao goes down, Cleveland's frontcourt defense goes from bad to dire.
So far, Blatt's only real alternative to the tight three-man rotation of Love, Thompson and Varejao has been a brief experiment with small ball in the fourth quarter of the Cavaliers' season-opening loss to the New York Knicks. Veteran Brendan Haywood, coming back from a stress fracture of the navicular bone in his left foot that cost him the entire 2013-14 campaign, has played just two minutes all season. Rookie Alex Kirk has been limited to garbage time thus far.
As a result, Cleveland might look across the court with envy during Friday's game against the Denver Nuggets. The biggest problem for Nuggets coach Brian Shaw is finding enough minutes for his three centers, and that's before J.J. Hickson returns from a five-game NBA suspension that concludes Friday. Shaw has used promising rookie Jusuf Nurkic and veteran JaVale McGee in the middle behind starter Timofey Mozgov.
Over the summer, ESPN's Brian Windhorst said that the Cavaliers had targeted Mozgov along with Kosta Koufos of the Memphis Grizzlies as potential additions at center. Mozgov, who played for Blatt with the Russian national team, is a natural fit. Last season, Mozgov allowed opponents to shoot just 47.1 percent within 5 feet of the rim as a primary defender, putting him in the top 10 among players who defended at least six such shots per game. Better yet, Mozgov would fit snugly in the $5.3 million trade exception Cleveland has left over from the Keith Bogans trade.
The trick is getting the Nuggets interested in a deal. Despite their depth at center, Mozgov is still the best option, and on a reasonable contract. And Cleveland shooting guard Dion Waiters, who has fallen out of the starting lineup (he played just 13 minutes in the Cavaliers' loss at Utah on Wednesday) makes little sense for a Denver team that traded for Arron Afflalo and drafted Gary Harris to fill that position during the summer. To tempt the Nuggets, Cleveland probably would have to be willing to part with a draft pick -- most likely the reverse-protected first-rounder owed to the Cavaliers by the Grizzlies.
If both teams are patient, a McGee trade might make more sense next summer. At that point, Cleveland could swap Haywood (whose contract swells to $10.5 million, completely non-guaranteed) straight up for McGee, who will make $12 million in the final season of his contract. That would give Denver more financial flexibility after extending Kenneth Faried's contract during training camp and give the Cavaliers a shot-blocker, albeit one who's had a difficult time harnessing his physical tools.
For Friday, Cleveland can only imagine what Mozgov or McGee might look like in wine and gold. When the game tips off, Blatt will have to find a way to get better rim protection out of his current options in the frontcourt.
News and notes
- Before Tuesday's game in Portland, Blatt was asked how long it will take to fairly judge his team's performance. "I think you've got to go a good few games in," Blatt said, agreeing that 10 to 20 games was a reasonable range. "Something in that area. That's a realistic indication." So save your conclusions for somewhere between Nov. 19 and Dec. 9.
- Both NBA teams eligible for injury exemptions allowing them to temporarily sign a 16th player have apparently made their choices, with the Indiana Pacers signing A.J. Price and the Oklahoma City Thunder set to sign Ish Smith. Price was actually the Pacers' second choice after they were unable to sign former Dallas Mavericks point guard Gal Mekel because of a visa holdup. Mekel's playmaking would have been an interesting addition to a team lacking shot creators. Price is more of a caretaker at the point guard position, though he should enjoy an easy transition, having played for Indiana as recently as 2011-12.
Smith was an effective backup last season in Phoenix who was bumped off Houston's roster despite signing a guaranteed contract over the summer. He's probably the best point guard available on such short notice, and with both Perry Jones and Andre Roberson day-to-day, Smith may get some minutes in dual-point guard lineups.
- One of the season's most interesting developments has been Trevor Booker's emergence as a 3-point threat. Booker made just one triple in 10 attempts during four seasons with the Washington Wizards but has been encouraged to extend his range under Quin Snyder and the 3-point-friendly Utah Jazz. He's already made six of his 12 3-point tries -- as many as Ryan Anderson. The surprising floor spacing that Booker has provided is one reason he's already edged Enes Kanter out of the Jazz's starting lineup.
Top wings in the 2015 draft
With the college basketball season about to get underway, it's time to take a preseason look at the top NBA draft prospects by position.
Last week we took a look at the bigs. This week we turn to the wings, where, again, there is a lot of talent -- especially at small forward.
In fact, eight of my top 10 really qualify as full-time small forwards. In a league where shooting guard is a need for so many teams, the lack of 2s is a bit of a problem.
It's worth reminding college basketball fans that this isn't a list of the best players in college by position; it's the best NBA prospects. In many cases, those two lists don't align precisely. Insider spoke with a number of NBA general managers and scouts in an attempt to aggregate the rankings. Expect them to change as the season progresses. We'll try to come back each month with an update.
Here are the top 10 wing prospects for 2015:
1. Kelly Oubre, G/F, Fr., Kansas
Top 100 Rank: 5
Oubre is using a terrific summer to push his stock into the top five. Blessed with deep range on his jump shot, terrific size for his position and elite athletic abilities, he's a very special talent. Improved decision-making and a midrange game are the things scouts will look for this season. He can be a gunslinger, and it remains to be seen whether head coach Bill Self can rein him in.
2. Stanley Johnson, G/F, Fr., Arizona
Top 100 Rank: 6
Johnson already has the body of a NBA veteran and plays with a toughness and motor that make him fun to watch. Johnson goes hard every night, but he must add a consistent perimeter game to be a star. That concern over his shooting ability means that some scouts have players like Kevon Looney and Mario Hezonja ranked higher. But if Johnson can put it all together this season? He could be a top-three draft pick.
3. Kevon Looney, SF, Fr., UCLA
Top 100: 8
Looney is a versatile forward who, at 6-foot-10 with a 7-foot-3 wingspan, has elite size for his position. He is athletic, plays inside and out and even played point guard for his high school team as a senior. You won't find a more versatile player in the draft. If he has a big season for UCLA, he could sneak into the top five. A lot of scouts believe he might be the second coming of Lamar Odom.
4. Mario Hezonja, SF, 19 years old, Croatia
Top 100 Rank: 10
Hezonja isn't your typical Euro wing. He's a terrific athlete who flies up and down the floor and can finish well above the rim. If he were getting any real playing time in Barcelona, he would've likely been a top-10 pick this past year. Scouts think he'll come out after this season regardless. There's so much raw talent that someone will be willing to wait.
5. R.J. Hunter, SG, Jr., Georgia State
Top 100 Rank: 13
Hunter quickly became everyone's sleeper this summer after a terrific performance at the LeBron James camp. He's not a sleeper anymore. Kevin Pelton has him ranked No. 1 on his board of returning college players, and virtually every GM I spoke with now has him ranked as a potential lottery candidate. He could be this year's Nik Stauskas.
6. Justise Winslow, SF, Fr., Duke
Top 100 Rank: 15
Some scouts think Winslow is a lottery pick; others are concerned that he's really a short power forward trying to masquerade as a wing. I love Winslow's NBA-ready body, athleticism and toughness. He can defend multiple positions, which NBA teams love. Like so many players on this list, much of his success will hang on whether his jump shot is falling.
7. Sam Dekker, SF, Jr., Wisconsin
Top 100 Rank: 18
I've spilled a lot virtual ink on Dekker lately. The stat guys love him. He had a terrific summer. He's on one of the top three teams in the country. If his 3-point shot falls with more consistency this season, he's a lottery pick. Even if it doesn't, I think his toughness and versatility will land him somewhere in the first round.
8. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, G/F, So., Arizona
Top 100 Rank: 19
Hollis-Jefferson is in a tough spot. Had he decided to declare for the draft as a freshman, I think he could've been a late lottery pick. Instead, he got picked apart this summer by scouts, and with Robinson playing essentially the same position, there is skepticism that he'll be able to build on his freshman campaign. I wouldn't count him out. While he desperately needs to get a passable jump shot, Hollis-Jefferson brings so much energy and defense to the table that I think he can be one of the best players in college basketball this season.
9. Justin Jackson, G/F, Fr., North Carolina
Top 100 Rank: 20
North Carolina has a pair of elite freshman wings headed to Chapel Hill this fall, but it's Jackson who has NBA scouts salivating. He has great size for his position, has the potential to be one of the best shooters in the draft and plays with a great basketball IQ. He's not an elite athlete; if he were, he'd be a lottery pick. Jackson has enough talent to find a niche in the NBA anyway.
10. D'Angelo Russell, SG, Fr., Ohio State
Top 100 Rank: 21
A number of scouts think Russell could be a sleeper in this draft. Although he was ranked No. 13 overall in the ESPN 100 as a high school senior, he was the top-ranked shooting guard, and he's starting on a team in desperate need of scoring. Russell has the talent to live up to the hype. He has deep range on his jumper, and has the floor vision and passing skills to play some point. He needs to get stronger, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him in the lottery by midseason if he takes over this Buckeyes squad.
Others to watch: Wayne Selden, G/F, So., Kansas; Caris LeVert, G/F, Jr., Michigan; Marc Garcia, SG, 18, Spain; Alex Poythress, F, Jr., Kentucky; Norman Powell, SG, Sr., UCLA; Branden Dawson, SF, Sr., Michigan State; Buddy Hield, SG, Jr., Oklahoma; Aaron Harrison, SG, So., Kentucky; Rashad Vaughn, SG, Fr., UNLV; Michael Frazier II, SG, Jr., Florida; Jabari Bird, SG, So., California; Terran Petteway, G/F, Sr., Nebraska; Brandon Ashley, F, Jr., Arizona; Zak Irvin, G/F, So., Michigan; Theo Pinson, G/F, Fr., North Carolina; Sindarius Thornwell, SG, So., South Carolina; Devin Booker, SG, Fr., Kentucky; Nedim Buza, F, 19, Bosnia; Isaac Hamilton, G/F, Fr., UCLA; Michael Qualls, SG, Jr., Arkansas; Devin Robinson, F, Fr., Florida; Isaac Copeland, F, Fr., Georgetown; Rasheed Sulaimon, SG, Jr., Duke; Treveon Graham, SG, Sr., VCU; Timothe Luwawu, SF, 19, France; Troy Williams, G/F, So., Indiana; Rodney Purvis, SG, So., UConn; Dyshawn Pierre, G/F, Jr., Dayton; Joseph Young, SG, Sr., Oregon; Daniel Hamilton, SF, Fr., UConn; Tyler Haws, SG, Sr., BYU; Le'Bryan Nash, F, Sr., Oklahoma State; Olivier Hanlan, SG, Sr., Boston College; Georges Niang, F, Jr., Iowa State; Isaiah Whitehead, SG, Fr., Seton Hall; Keith Frazier, SG, So., SMU; D'Angelo Harrison, SG, Sr., St. John's; Kellen Dunham, SG, Jr., Butler; Katin Reinhardt, SG, So., USC; Dezmine Wells, SG, Sr., Maryland; Derrick Marks, SG, Sr., Boise State; Wayne Blackshear, SG, Sr., Louisville; Eron Harris, SG, Jr., West Virginia; Robert Hubbs, SG, So., Tennessee; Dorian Finney-Smith, F, Jr., Florida; Winston Shepard, SF, Jr., San Diego State; Dwayne Polee II, F, Sr., San Diego State
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Projecting the NFL playoff field
Carson Palmer may be done for the season with a torn ACL, but the road to Glendale still probably goes through Glendale -- at least according to the Football Outsiders playoff odds report.
Each week from now until the end of the regular season, we'll be taking a look at the projected playoff field based on the Football Outsiders playoff odds simulation that plays out the rest of the season 50,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. (Like Donovan McNabb, the playoff odds simulation does not believe in ties.) The probabilities are based on each team's current weighted DVOA rating as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA is Football Outsiders' proprietary defense-adjusted value over average metric which looks at a team's performance on every play and adjusts based on situation and opponent, explained further here. Weighted DVOA then takes that rating and adjusts it to lower the strength of games that took place more than a month ago.)
Our DVOA ratings are surprisingly lukewarm on the quality of the Cardinals so far this year; they rank just 15th because their wins weren't terribly impressive until the past two weeks. But an 8-1 record is still a nice lead to have on the rest of your conference, so our simulations still have Arizona snagging the NFC's No. 1 seed 38.3 percent of the time.
Here is our projected playoff field for each conference, seeded 1 through 6.
You can find the full playoff odds report, including the odds of each team winning each of the six seeds, on FootballOutsiders.com.
AFC playoff predictions
1. Denver Broncos
Current record: 7-2 | Weighted DVOA: 36.2%
Mean projected wins: 11.8
Total playoff odds: 95.9% | Weekly change: +4.2%
Despite losing to New England in Week 9, Denver is still the clear class of the NFL in 2014, according to our numbers. The Broncos win the Super Bowl in 21.5 percent of our simulations, with no other team winning in over 10 percent. Denver leads the league in DVOA and the gap between the Broncos and No. 2 Baltimore is roughly equivalent to the gap between the Ravens and the team ranked 10th (Kansas City). And the Broncos go from the third-hardest schedule in the league over their first eight games to the 25th-hardest schedule over their final eight (including this week's win over Oakland).
2. Indianapolis Colts
Current record: 6-3 | Weighted DVOA: 14.5%
Mean projected wins: 10.6
Total playoff odds: 98.0% | Weekly change: +0.1%
Yes, even though New England is currently in the top spot in the AFC, we have Indianapolis and Denver, not the Patriots, currently projected to get first-round byes. One important issue here is that New England's remaining schedule (ranked second in average opponent DVOA) is so much harder than that of Indianapolis (29th). The other important issue is this week's game taking place in Indianapolis; since home-field advantage favors the Colts over the Patriots, it means that the Colts usually have the tiebreaker in our simulations when the two teams finish with the same number of wins.
Right now, the Colts get a first-round bye in 37 percent of simulations and the Patriots in 30 percent. If we look only at simulations in which the Colts win Sunday night's game, those percentages become 50 percent for the Colts and only 18 percent for the Patriots. If we look only at simulations where the Patriots win Sunday night's game, those percentages become 51 percent for the Patriots and only 16 percent for the Colts. So this game is going to mean a lot for playoff seeding.
3. New England Patriots
Current record: 7-2 | Weighted DVOA: 12.7%
Mean projected wins: 10.7
Total playoff odds: 79.3% | Weekly change: +1.1%
Surprisingly, New England's playoff odds barely changed during the team's bye week, despite losses by the two teams trailing them for the AFC East title, Buffalo and Miami. For details on why the Patriots are here instead of the No. 2 spot, read the Colts' section. Sunday night's matchup between the two teams could be critical in determining which team earns a first-round playoff bye.
4. Baltimore Ravens
Current record: 6-4 | Weighted DVOA: 23.7%
Mean projected wins: 9.9
Total playoff odds: 64.6% | Weekly change: +11.1%
If the season ended today, the Ravens would not have a playoff spot, but our DVOA ratings regard Baltimore as the class of the AFC North. The Ravens are fourth in the NFL in point differential, and DVOA has them rated even higher -- second behind only Denver. And even though the entire division has winning records, Baltimore is the only AFC North team in our top 10. The Ravens also have the division's easiest remaining schedule.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
Current record: 6-3 | Weighted DVOA: 13.5%
Mean projected wins: 10.1
Total playoff odds: 74.1% | Weekly change: +19.7%
Kansas City's road to the playoffs got a lot easier this week. They took care of the Bills, then watched most of the rest of their competition for a wild-card spot (Miami, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh) take losses. The Chiefs are 5-2 in the conference, and two of their three hardest remaining games are against NFC opponents (Seattle this week, at Arizona Week 14) and thus are less important for tiebreaker purposes.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
Current record: 6-4 | Weighted DVOA: 9.7%
Mean projected wins: 9.5
Total playoff odds: 53.3% | Weekly change: -11.1%
It seems like maybe we should disqualify teams from the postseason for losing to the Bucs and Jets, but that's not actually how the NFL's system works. And when we look at Pittsburgh's entire resume, with the big wins and the crazy losses, we still rank the Steelers as the second-best team in the AFC North and thus more likely than Cleveland or Cincinnati to sneak into the second wild-card spot. That playoff race would certainly be more fun if Cleveland and Pittsburgh hadn't played both their games already.
In the hunt
Cleveland Browns | 6-3 | Total playoff odds: 41.6%
Miami Dolphins | 5-4 | Total playoff odds: 41.2%
Buffalo Bills | 5-4 | Total playoff odds: 18.3%
Cincinnati Bengals | 5-3-1 | Total playoff odds: 14.8%
San Diego Chargers | 5-4 | Total playoff odds: 13.6%
Houston Texans | 4-5 | Total playoff odds: 5.4%
Cleveland's odds of making the playoffs went up more than any other team's after Week 10. Prior to this week and the Browns' big win over Cincinnati, we had Cleveland with 17.1 percent odds of making the postseason, while Cincinnati was at 40.9 percent. Now the two teams have essentially swapped places. Unfortunately, DVOA does not rate the Browns as highly as it does the Ravens or Steelers, and Cleveland also has a harder schedule than its division rivals going forward.
On the other hand, if you are a fan of one of these six teams seeking hope for the final seven weeks of the season: last year our playoff odds report after Week 10 gave the Chargers a 10.7 percent chance of making the postseason, even lower than their odds this season.
NFC playoff predictions
1. Arizona Cardinals
Current record: 8-1 | Weighted DVOA: 2.8%
Mean projected wins: 11.3
Total playoff odds: 93.7% | Weekly change: -0.2%
Arizona's other advantage in the battle for the NFC's top seed: the Cardinals are 6-0 in the conference right now, with a head-to-head win over Philadelphia. This week, they'll try to add a head-to-head win over their other main competitor for the top seed, Detroit. Although our ratings say Detroit has been the better team this year, home-field advantage more than makes up the difference for the Cardinals.
2. Detroit Lions
Current record: 7-2 | Weighted DVOA: 10.5%
Mean projected wins: 11.2
Total playoff odds: 90.1% | Weekly change: +8.0%
From the Department of Don't Count Your Chickens: When we first did this report after Week 10 of last season, Detroit was our projected No. 3 seed with a 74.8 percent chance of making the playoffs. But for now, the Lions project to earn a first-round bye.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
Current record: 7-2 | Weighted DVOA: 21.0%
Mean projected wins: 11.2
Total playoff odds: 85.9% | Weekly change: -0.5%
Yes, Philadelphia's odds of making the postseason actually dropped this week after blowing out the Panthers 45-21 on Monday night. The problem is that all the other top NFC playoff contenders won this week except for NFC South teams, and Dallas (Philly's top competitor for the NFC East title) and Green Bay (Philly's top competitor for a wild card) had routs that were just as impressive as the Eagles' win against Carolina.
4. New Orleans Saints
Current record: 4-5 | Weighted DVOA: 8.8%
Mean projected wins: 8.3
Total playoff odds: 77.3% | Weekly change: -5.7%
Oh, the joy of being in the NFC South. In 50 percent of our simulations, no team in the NFC South goes better than 8-8 this year. In 18 percent of our simulations, the NFC South champion has a losing record. And in 1.9 percent of our simulations, the NFC South champion is 6-9-1 or worse. And would still get to host a home playoff game!
5. Green Bay Packers
Current record: 6-3 | Weighted DVOA: 21.3%
Mean projected wins: 10.4
Total playoff odds: 74.3% | Weekly change: -2.7%
Right now, Detroit wins the NFC North in roughly 61 percent of simulations. Green Bay overtakes the Lions for the division title in roughly 39 percent of simulations. And Minnesota wins the NFC North in 0.2 percent of simulations, because the world sometimes goes bonkers.
6. Seattle Seahawks
Current record: 6-3 | Weighted DVOA: 19.4%
Mean projected wins: 10.1
Total playoff odds: 67.9% | Weekly change: -2.8%
There's been a lot of talk about letdowns and Super Bowl hangovers and what's wrong with the Seahawks, but the Football Outsiders ratings don't think there's anything wrong with them. The Seahawks also still have five of their six division games ahead of them, meaning they'll have the opportunity to play themselves into a better seed.
In the hunt
Dallas Cowboys | 7-3 | Total playoff odds: 58.1%
San Francisco 49ers | 5-4 | Total playoff odds: 25.7%
Atlanta Falcons | 3-6 | Total playoff odds: 15.4%
Carolina Panthers | 3-6-1 | Total playoff odds: 7.4%
What we have here is essentially a three-way battle for two wild cards between whichever teams finish second in the NFC East, North and West. The difference in our playoff odds between Dallas, Green Bay and Seattle is that the Cowboys are 13th in weighted DVOA, while the Packers and Seahawks are in the top five. Meanwhile, though San Francisco saved its playoff chances with a win over New Orleans this week, it is going to be difficult for the 49ers to leap past not only the Cowboys but also either the Seahawks or Packers to snag the second NFC wild-card spot.
