Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

Dominique Wilkins

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14. Joel Embiid | Age: 20 | 76ers

Projected 3-year WARP: N/A

Pelton: Because of his injury, Embiid doesn't have a WARP projection. However, his college stats suggested he would produce about 8 WARP over 2015-16 and 2016-17 -- if he can stay healthy.

Thorpe: Embiid projects to be a tremendous two-way player with great size and agility combined with genuine passion to compete. He has all the markings of a true franchise center, though long-term health is an issue.

Elhassan: He hasn't played a game and is recovering from injury, but his placement this high should speak to how respected his talent level is. I've never seen a player improve as much in as short a time as Embiid did during his short collegiate career.

15. Jrue Holiday | Age: 24 | Pelicans
Projected 3-year WARP: 21.4


Pelton: The Pelicans' offense has struggled in clutch situations, and Holiday has been a culprit. He's shooting just 27.1 percent in the fourth quarter this season, per NBA.com/Stats, and has struggled to set up Davis late in games.

Thorpe: Could be far higher on this list if he just played more assertively and aggressively every game. If that happens, he can dominate games on each end.

Elhassan: Playing out of the spotlight in New Orleans -- along with his injury woes -- has dampened the enthusiasm about Holiday, but he's still a savvy playmaker and one of the best defenders at point guard. He needs to get better at playing up-tempo and hitch his sails to the guy at No. 1 on this list.

16. Greg Monroe | Age: 24 | Pistons
Projected 3-year WARP: 17.6


Pelton: After an impressive start to his career, Monroe's game has gone backward since Drummond's arrival. His PER has dropped each of the past three seasons, from 22.0 in 2011-12 to 17.1 so far this season.

Thorpe: A solid player but has yet to consistently be the kind of a force his size and talent would suggest. Possesses a Kenneth Faried-type of motor.

Elhassan: Monroe hasn't had the benefit of playing in a functional team environment, and has played out of position for most of his career. He's one of the best low-post scorers in the game, but his defense still leaves something to be desired.

17. Jonas Valanciunas | Age: 22 | Raptors
Projected 3-year WARP: 6.8


Pelton: Valanciunas has raised his PER from 16.1 in 2013-14 to 19.6 this season thanks to improving his free throw rate and a bounce back in his block rate. Expect his usage rate to increase as Valanciunas reaches his prime.

Thorpe: Every season has seen incremental growth from Valanciunas, now a legitimate force inside for a very good team. He has to be accounted for on each end and still is growing as an offensive force. Has a good chance to become an 18-point, 10-rebound player.

Elhassan: Excellent pick-and-roll threat, strong rebounder and improving defender. He's the perfect fit for what the Raptors want to do on both sides of the court.

18. Andrew Wiggins | Age: 19 | Timberwolves
Projected 3-year WARP: Minus-4.0


Pelton: As promising as Wiggins is, he's been ineffective as a pro, making just 38.5 percent of his 2-point attempts with an assist-to-turnover ratio barely better than 1-to-2. As a result, his minus-1.4 WARP is the league's worst total.

Thorpe: Wiggins already is showing the signs of being the best perimeter defender in the league, and perhaps the best shooting athlete (as a rookie) in generations. He's far from being skilled enough with his dribble to dominate games, though he will post up wings effectively, rare for a teenager.

Elhassan: A lot of the gripe people have with Wiggins is actually tied to his lack of skill level. He doesn't settle for midrange jumpers because he's misguided; rather, it's because he doesn't possess the skill level to get to where he can be more efficient.

19. Nikola Vucevic | Age: 24 | Magic
Projected 3-year WARP: 19.4


Pelton: Vucevic has dramatically increased is usage rate this season, up to 25.9 percent of the Magic's plays from 21.8 percent last season, boosting his scoring.

Thorpe: Already threatening to be a 20-point, 10-rebound guy and is still getting better. Not a classic center in that he is more perimeter-based on offense, yet he is a rebounding machine who would pair beautifully with a true power forward.

Elhassan: Vucevic might be the best rebounder in the NBA right now. He's an extremely efficient scorer in the pick-and-roll, but defensively he's got a ways to go.

20. Brandon Knight | Age: 23 | Bucks
Projected 3-year WARP: 8.5


Pelton: Knight has improved from replacement level in 2012-13 to among the league's top 20 in WARP so far this season. And similar players continued to develop well into their 20s.

Thorpe: Knight is quickly joining Curry and Irving as guards with elite-level skills, including top-notch shooting and ballhandling. He's also one of the top rebounding guards in the game thanks to his nonstop motor.

Elhassan: He's enjoying the best season of his career, but I still see Knight as a high-level third guard. Not quite big enough to be a starting 2, not creative enough a dribbler or passer to be a point guard.

21. Tobias Harris | Age: 22 | Magic
Projected 3-year WARP: 10.7


Pelton: One of the league's youngest players when he entered the league, Harris will reach restricted free agency before his 23rd birthday, giving him plenty of room for development.

Thorpe: Harris is quietly becoming one of the top forwards in basketball while leading Orlando back to relevancy. He is an excellent scorer and rebounder, and could eventually be the only small forward in the game who averages 20 points and 10 boards.

Elhassan: Harris is a gifted, versatile scorer (like a poor man's Carmelo Anthony) with strong enough defensive rebounding to play either forward position. His perimeter jumper has long been his Achilles' heel, but he's made strides this season into developing that into another weapon in his arsenal.

22. Julius Randle | Age: 20 | Lakers
Projected 3-year WARP: N/A


Pelton: Like Embiid, Randle doesn't have a projection based on this season, because he was injured after 14 minutes of action. His college stats were not as effusive, however, and project him for 5.3 WARP over 2015-16 and 2016-17.

Thorpe: Players who can average 20 points and 10 rebounds are very rare, and Randle is capable of posting those numbers in a few years. His motor and skill set are both at high levels, which is a rare combination. Plus, his feel for scoring and the game in general are elite level.

Elhassan: Fourteen minutes into Randle's NBA career, he was struck down by injury. He has a nice blend of power and speed, but he's undersized and is neither a vertical athlete nor a defender nor a floor-spacer.

23. Dante Exum | Age: 19 | Jazz
Projected 3-year WARP: 1.5


Pelton: After a strong start, Exum has shot just 24.2 percent since Nov. 21, including 2-of-14 from 3-point range. SCHOENE includes Tony Parker among his comparables, but the closest match is Indiana Pacers wing C.J. Miles.

Thorpe: Maybe the best example of upside versus downside on this list, but his abilities as an athlete and passer suggest a big future. We don't know if he will be a great scorer, which would lower his ceiling significantly if he doesn't turn out to be. As a plus, he's young enough to be on this list for five more seasons.

Elhassan: Of all the players on the Jazz roster, Exum has the highest upside. He is in the first few steps of a thousand-mile journey of development, but as Antetokounmpo in Milwaukee showed last season, the light can turn on sooner than expected.

24. Ricky Rubio | Age: 24 | Timberwolves
Projected 3-year WARP: 25.9


Pelton: Before going down with a badly sprained ankle, Rubio was averaging a career-high 12.5 assists per 36 minutes, up from 9.6 a season ago. Flip Saunders' offense should give Rubio more opportunities with the ball in his hands.

Thorpe: It looked like this season was finally going to be his breakout campaign, as he looked to be in command of his team before going down with an injury. At the very least he is a dynamic passer and someone who disrupts offenses with his defensive skills.

Elhassan: Let Rubio exist as a cautionary tale of unfulfilled potential. That said, he's still just 24, one of the best passers in the NBA and a very good defender. He might never reach his projected ceiling, but he's still a fine option at point guard.

t25. Draymond Green | Age: 24 | Warriors
Projected 3-year WARP: 18.8


Pelton: Green projected as a valuable offensive player coming out of Michigan State, then reinvented himself as a defense-first player under Mark Jackson. In a new offense, he's developed into a dangerous 3-point shooter who also gets easy buckets.

Thorpe: High-level skills and incredible energy combined with power and a willingness to play with force make Green a rising star despite his lack of athleticism and size. He also plays with a lot of confidence, and teammates love playing alongside him.

Elhassan: The type of glue player every coach wants on his team. Tough, hard-nosed defender; smart and selfless on the offensive end; great locker room presence, and now, a bona fide 3-point shooter. His ceiling is lower than most on this list, but that just means he knows and accepts his role.

t25. Jabari Parker | Age: 19 | Bucks
Projected 3-year WARP: 5.4


Pelton: Of this year's lottery picks, Parker has been the most productive as a rookie, posting a 15.6 PER. He's done that while making just one 3-pointer, an element nearly all similar players developed during their careers.

Thorpe: Parker looks to be a franchise-level scorer who may one day compete for scoring titles. He also is a willing passer and defender who knows how to be his team's best player and leader. Look for him to be a 3-point threat in a year or two.

Elhassan: Parker has an old-school game and an old-school body with a knack for scoring the ball around the basket. His perimeter jumper is not good enough, but he's smart enough to know that and avoid it. Like many players on this list, defense is an issue, and he doesn't rebound well enough to play the 4 consistently.
 

TheGreatShowtime

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Things have not gone well in Washington for Robert Griffin III since a knee injury ended his very promising rookie season. And judging by the difficulties he's had working with first-year Redskins coach Jay Gruden -- both in terms of his on-field production in Gruden's West Coast system, and Gruden calling him out publicly -- it's hard to imagine that both men will be back in Washington next season. Griffin's departure becomes even more likely if the Redskins wind up with an early-enough draft pick to potentially take a run at another top-level QB prospect, like Oregon's Marcus Mariota or Florida State's Jameis Winston.

One of the possible outcomes in this situation is for the Redskins to look to trade Griffin this offseason. What is RG III's trade value right now, and what teams would be most likely to pursue him? We'll start with what he could yield the Redskins in a trade, then look at those potential team fits.

After how poorly Griffin has played this season, I can't see a quarterback-needy team offering a draft pick in Round 1 or the top half of Round 2. I think a fourth-round pick (or maybe even a third-rounder, or maybe a late second-rounder) is fair compensation. There will be a lot of talent evaluators around the league who remember how much they thought of Griffin when he was coming out of Baylor, and how well he played his rookie season. A conditional pick based on the success and playing time received with his new team might end up being the most likely and logical compensation.

If Washington trades Griffin, its dead-money hit would be about $3.5 million, and Griffin's new team would owe him slightly less than that guaranteed for 2015. His new team also could, which seems unlikely as it stands today, pick up Griffin's fifth-year option to keep him for 2016. So trading for Griffin isn't necessarily a one-and-done situation, and the team that acquired him could also extend his contract. However, his overall contract status isn't super favorable for a new team, which will drive down the compensation Washington can expect in return.

Team fits

Which teams could or should be in the market for Griffin? I have identified four candidates to do so below, but first, a quick word on the teams that didn't make the list. The Cowboys would make some sense, as I could see Jerry Jones wanting to put Griffin behind Tony Romo for a season or two and return Griffin to Texas, and Eagles coach Chip Kelly could desire an athlete like Griffin (although he isn't the speedster he was before his injuries) as an option to play behind or compete with Nick Foles in Philly, but I don't see any way in which Washington trades RG III within the NFC East.

Assuming Lovie Smith is back next season as the Tampa Bay head coach, I can't see him going for an unstable option at QB like Griffin. Two other QB-needy teams are the Titans and Texans, but both of those offenses are looking for stable pocket passers, and Griffin doesn't exactly fit that bill right now.

That leaves four teams:

Buffalo Bills

Maybe more than any other team in the league right now, the Bills are in no man's land as it pertains to the quarterback position. Buffalo appears to have swung and missed on EJ Manuel, and even the most optimistic Manuel fan can't feel confident that he is the future for the Bills. With as poorly as Kyle Orton (who was signed to a two-year deal early in the season) is playing, it says volumes that Buffalo's coaching staff didn't even consider replacing him with Manuel.

Orton is going to be in Buffalo next season and most likely will be the starter to start the season, and the Bills' don't have a first-round pick to use on a quarterback, as a result of trading up in the 2014 draft to select Sammy Watkins. That's why Griffin is a logical option, as he wouldn't be forced to be the immediate starter with Orton already on the roster, but he'd provide the upside you look for in a potential long-term solution.

Kansas City Chiefs

But the Chiefs have Alex Smith, right? And they just signed him to a contract extension, right? The answer to both questions is yes, but Andy Reid is excellent with quarterbacks and did a great job in Philadelphia with another quarterback in need of a fresh start -- one with a similar skill set to Griffin's -- in Michael Vick. Plus, the offense is currently being tailored to Smith, which limits the big-play elements of the passing game a great deal. Maybe Reid sees a golden opportunity to buy low on what was widely considered a great and promising talent, sits Griffin on the bench for a season while reworking his contract and rebuilds him from the ground up. That could be exactly what Griffin needs.

New York Jets

The Jets are an extremely difficult team to forecast right now, as it seems very unlikely that New York's coaching staff will be back next season. What sort of quarterback will the new coaches be looking for? None of us know the answer to that one right now, but I am quite sure that the new staff won't be content with the quarterbacks it inherits. RG III is going to be one of the top available options -- or potentially available options -- on the market.

St. Louis Rams

This one might be unlikely, given that the Redskins traded up with the Rams to draft Griffin -- especially after Jeff Fisher trotted out the six players the Rams got in return for Griffin for the coin toss in Washington this past week. I don't know that Washington would be too eager to deal RG III to St. Louis after that. However, this makes a lot of sense from a football standpoint. The Rams are playing great football and have just about every piece in place -- except for the quarterback position.

If Griffin were to resurrect his career and fulfill his potential (maybe waiting and learning behind someone like Shaun Hill), the Rams could become a perennially great team. Another potential sticking point is that St. Louis is light on draft picks to trade to Washington after dealing for Mark Barron at the trade deadline.
 

Skooby

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Teams that should pursue RG III

Things have not gone well in Washington for Robert Griffin III since a knee injury ended his very promising rookie season. And judging by the difficulties he's had working with first-year Redskins coach Jay Gruden -- both in terms of his on-field production in Gruden's West Coast system, and Gruden calling him out publicly -- it's hard to imagine that both men will be back in Washington next season. Griffin's departure becomes even more likely if the Redskins wind up with an early-enough draft pick to potentially take a run at another top-level QB prospect, like Oregon's Marcus Mariota or Florida State's Jameis Winston.

One of the possible outcomes in this situation is for the Redskins to look to trade Griffin this offseason. What is RG III's trade value right now, and what teams would be most likely to pursue him? We'll start with what he could yield the Redskins in a trade, then look at those potential team fits.


Griffin's trade value, cost

After how poorly Griffin has played this season, I can't see a quarterback-needy team offering a draft pick in Round 1 or the top half of Round 2. I think a fourth-round pick (or maybe even a third-rounder, or maybe a late second-rounder) is fair compensation. There will be a lot of talent evaluators around the league who remember how much they thought of Griffin when he was coming out of Baylor, and how well he played his rookie season. A conditional pick based on the success and playing time received with his new team might end up being the most likely and logical compensation.

If Washington trades Griffin, its dead-money hit would be about $3.5 million, and Griffin's new team would owe him slightly less than that guaranteed for 2015. His new team also could, which seems unlikely as it stands today, pick up Griffin's fifth-year option to keep him for 2016. So trading for Griffin isn't necessarily a one-and-done situation, and the team that acquired him could also extend his contract. However, his overall contract status isn't super favorable for a new team, which will drive down the compensation Washington can expect in return.



Team fits

Which teams could or should be in the market for Griffin? I have identified four candidates to do so below, but first, a quick word on the teams that didn't make the list. The Cowboys would make some sense, as I could see Jerry Jones wanting to put Griffin behind Tony Romo for a season or two and return Griffin to Texas, and Eagles coach Chip Kelly could desire an athlete like Griffin (although he isn't the speedster he was before his injuries) as an option to play behind or compete with Nick Foles in Philly, but I don't see any way in which Washington trades RG III within the NFC East.

Assuming Lovie Smith is back next season as the Tampa Bay head coach, I can't see him going for an unstable option at QB like Griffin. Two other QB-needy teams are the Titans and Texans, but both of those offenses are looking for stable pocket passers, and Griffin doesn't exactly fit that bill right now.

That leaves four teams:

i


Buffalo Bills

Maybe more than any other team in the league right now, the Bills are in no man's land as it pertains to the quarterback position. Buffalo appears to have swung and missed on EJ Manuel, and even the most optimistic Manuel fan can't feel confident that he is the future for the Bills. With as poorly asKyle Orton (who was signed to a two-year deal early in the season) is playing, it says volumes that Buffalo's coaching staff didn't even consider replacing him with Manuel.

Orton is going to be in Buffalo next season and most likely will be the starter to start the season, and the Bills' don't have a first-round pick to use on a quarterback, as a result of trading up in the 2014 draft to select Sammy Watkins. That's why Griffin is a logical option, as he wouldn't be forced to be the immediate starter with Orton already on the roster, but he'd provide the upside you look for in a potential long-term solution.



i


Kansas City Chiefs

But the Chiefs have Alex Smith, right? And they just signed him to a contract extension, right? The answer to both questions is yes, but Andy Reid is excellent with quarterbacks and did a great job in Philadelphia with another quarterback in need of a fresh start -- one with a similar skill set to Griffin's -- in Michael Vick. Plus, the offense is currently being tailored to Smith, which limits the big-play elements of the passing game a great deal. Maybe Reid sees a golden opportunity to buy low on what was widely considered a great and promising talent, sits Griffin on the bench for a season while reworking his contract and rebuilds him from the ground up. That could be exactly what Griffin needs.



i


New York Jets

The Jets are an extremely difficult team to forecast right now, as it seems very unlikely that New York's coaching staff will be back next season. What sort of quarterback will the new coaches be looking for? None of us know the answer to that one right now, but I am quite sure that the new staff won't be content with the quarterbacks it inherits. RG III is going to be one of the top available options -- or potentially available options -- on the market.



i


St. Louis Rams

This one might be unlikely, given that the Redskins traded up with the Rams to draft Griffin -- especially after Jeff Fisher trotted out the six players the Rams got in return for Griffin for the coin toss in Washington this past week. I don't know that Washington would be too eager to deal RG III to St. Louis after that. However, this makes a lot of sense from a football standpoint. The Rams are playing great football and have just about every piece in place -- except for the quarterback position.

If Griffin were to resurrect his career and fulfill his potential (maybe waiting and learning behind someone like Shaun Hill), the Rams could become a perennially great team. Another potential sticking point is that St. Louis is light on draft picks to trade to Washington after dealing for Mark Barron at the trade deadline.
 

TheGreatShowtime

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Too long, so broken up into 2 parts.

CHICAGO -- More than 100 NBA scouts and GMs descended on Chicago on Saturday to watch Kentucky thrash yet another opponent. This time the unlucky team was UCLA, as Kentucky was as dominating as ever.

The Wildcats opened the game with a 24-0 run and went into halftime leading 41-7. No, folks, this wasn't a football game. And anyone who watched the massacre unfold would tell you that it wasn't even really that close.

UK went on to win 83-44. It is now 12-0 on the season with resounding victories over Kansas (20 points), Texas (12 points), Providence (20 points), North Carolina (14 points) and UCLA (39 points).

I spent the game sitting in the stands surrounded by NBA scouts and management. After speaking with a variety of them before, during and after the game, several themes emerged.

First, this is the greatest college basketball team many of them have witnessed. That's saying something from a veteran crew of former elite college basketball players, former NBA players and veterans of the scouting business who have been watching the sport for several decades.

"I've never see anything like this ever," said a veteran GM with more than 20 years of experience. "[John] Calipari has done such a great job managing all of these kids. He has them playing so hard. They don't just beat you. They chew you up and spit you out. UCLA came out and they were afraid. They should be. If Kentucky is hitting 3s, no one can beat them. Even if they're not, I still think they're likely to go undefeated."

Second, this team is loaded with future NBA players. However, not all of UK's players are equal in the eyes of NBA scouts. While as many as 10 players on this roster could be drafted, right now it seems like only two, possibly three, players on the roster will be lottery picks and maybe four or five of the 10 would be first-rounders.

I asked a number of NBA scouts and GMs at the game on Saturday to talk about the draft stock of all 10 of Kentucky's prospects. Everyone I spoke with had scouted Kentucky in person at least twice. Most of them have seen the Wildcats in person three or four times this season.

Here's their take on all 10 prospects, ranked in order of likely draft position, followed by prospect notes on UCLA, Ohio State and North Carolina.

1. Karl-Anthony Towns | F/C | Fr. | Draft range: 1-5

Towns is the consensus No. 1 UK player on the board despite the fact he hasn't necessarily had a breakout season offensively. Against UCLA he posted 10 rebounds and two blocks in 20 minutes of play. However, he scored just four points on 2-for-5 shooting. Towns is a more skilled offensive player than he's shown at Kentucky. He's been especially quiet lately on offense, scoring just two points against North Carolina and six points versus Columbia.

Some of that is on the Harrison twins, Andrew and Aaron. They both tend to dominate the ball and Towns doesn't get nearly as many touches as he deserves. And some of it is on Towns not being as aggressive as he could be when he does get the ball. Defensively, he's been great as both a rebounder and a shot-blocker. While most NBA scouts and GMs prefer Duke's Jahlil Okafor over Towns right now for the top pick, there are some who believe Towns has bigger upside and could end up surpassing Okafor on draft night.

"You put Towns on any other team in college basketball, maybe with the exception of Duke, and everyone is talking about him as a legitimate Player of the Year candidate," said one GM. "His stats, or lack thereof, aren't an issue of talent, it's an issue of so much talent on the floor that he can take a back seat."

2. Willie Cauley-Stein | C | Jr. | Draft range: 5-10

Cauley-Stein's draft stock has made a huge jump over the past few weeks. We've always known he's a freaky athlete and a defensive monster. When he and Towns are on the floor together, it's almost impossible for teams to score in the paint. But this season Cauley-Stein has shown more aggressiveness offensively and overall he's played with more fire. His ability to run the floor for a player his size is elite. Against UCLA on Saturday he had eight points, five rebounds, four blocks and two steals. A few scouts believe he could end up going as high as No. 5 in the draft. The majority, however, think that his lack of offensive polish, his age and his unusual personality may cause him to land in the 8-10 range. Either way, it's looking like he's a top-10 pick.

"He has the potential to be an elite NBA defender," said an NBA scout. "I don't think we're expecting a lot of offense from him, but I could see him having a career like Tyson Chandler. I actually think he's a better shot-blocker than Tyson. He's not a gym rat and that's going to turn off some NBA guys because they'll wonder if he'll put in the work. But there's so much to work with there. I love him."

3. Trey Lyles | F | Fr. | Draft range: 15-25

Lyles isn't a dynamic athlete like Towns or Cauley-Stein, nor does he have elite length. But he's the most offensively skilled big man on Kentucky. He has a high basketball IQ, can shoot and post up. He rarely makes a bad play. Lyles had nine points, four rebounds and two assists versus UCLA. His lack of incredible athleticism means his stock is a little lower than that of Towns or Cauley-Stein. Some scouts have him ranked just outside the lottery. Others have him ranked as a late first-rounder. One scout who was particularly high on Lyles compared him to a young Juwan Howard.

"When you see him on the floor with Towns and Cauley-Stein playing small forward, you forget that he's 6-foot-9 or 6-foot-10. He looks like a wing out there running around," one GM chuckled. "He'll be a power forward in the NBA and I think that will help his draft stock. As long as he doesn't have to guard NBA wings, I think he'll be very good."

4. Dakari Johnson | C | So. | Draft range: 20-30

Johnson also had a strong game against UCLA. While he only scored four points, he tallied five rebounds, six assists and four blocks. He's not quite the defender that Cauley-Stein or Towns are, so four blocks was a surprise. He has power and knows how to carve out space in the paint. While pro teams don't think he's a star, many of them see him as an ideal backup center in the NBA.

"He plays hard, he competes, he can score a little and he can rebound," one GM said. "I'm not sure there's any one thing he does great, but he doesn't have a lot of weaknesses either. I know we could use him right now. He'd get 20 minutes a night on my team. You can't have enough bigs."

5. Devin Booker | SG | Fr. | Draft range: 25-35

Booker is the best shooter on the Wildcats and, when he's on, he's the guy who makes their offense sizzle. He was on fire against UCLA. He led all scorers with 19 points and went 5-for-6 from beyond the arc. Booker is shooting 46 percent from behind the arc this season. While Booker is neither a high-flying athlete nor a lock-down defender, his ability to shoot the basketball has scouts very interested.

"When you look around at the draft, there just aren't any wings who can really shoot the ball," one NBA scout said. "You've got R.J. Hunter and who else really? Booker isn't just a good shooter, he's a great one and there's always room on a NBA team for a great shooter. I'd be shocked if someone didn't snag him in the 20s."
 
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