Ritzy Sharon
Don't Make Me Pull The Oud Out
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Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)
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muzikfrk75
#4080
2014-15 NBA team previews
Insider's group of experts provides in-depth breakdowns of every team
I'll post some of the teams if yall request
Insider's group of experts provides in-depth breakdowns of every team
I'll post some of the teams if yall request
muzikfrk75
#4080
Cleveland Cavaliers: 2014-15 roster
PROJECTED STARTERS
KYRIE IRVING, PG
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
P/40R/40A/40WIN %WARP
Player card »
25.43.97.5.65113.3
Scouting report
+ Blossoming, upper-tier point guard with good playmaking and ball-protection skills.
+ Equally adept scoring on jumpers off the dribble with range and attacking the lane.
+ Indifferent defender despite high-level athletic ability.
Analysis
It's crazy how ephemeral professional sports can be. Early last season, Kyrie Irving's name kept popping up on the whisper-mill as a possible candidate to turn down a max extension to his rookie contract, sign a qualifying offer, and bolt Cleveland as soon as possible. Now, that max extension is on the books -- five years, $90 million -- and Irving is in the enviable position of trying to aid LeBron James' quest to bring championship glory back to the banks of Lake Erie. Irving will play a younger version of Dwyane Wade in the James reboot and if his play for Team USA over the summer is any indication, it's going to be a successful project.
Injuries, losing and coaching turnover have stunted Irving's growth in the NBA. Last season, his shooting efficiency dropped, though the losses were partially offset by a better turnover rate in Mike Brown's system. After hitting 39 percent or more from deep, he fell to 36 percent. Playing alongside James, Irving's catch-and-shoot skills will be tested. According to Synergy, Irving ranked in just the 27th percentile in those spots last season. He shot nine percent better off the dribble than without. Still, the attention James attracts will help boost Irving's already fine pick-and-roll game. He draws fouls and kicks out to shooters well. On defense, Irving has been a consistent negative despite his athletic gifts, posting a minus-2.0 defensive RPM or worse in all three of his seasons. Hopefully that changes now that the stakes are higher.
DION WAITERS, SG
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
P/40R/40A/40WIN %WARP
Player card »
20.43.54.2.4411.2
Scouting report
+ Versatile volume scorer.
+ Good with ball in hands, but improved as catch-and-shooter.
+ Combo guard body and struggles on defense.
Analysis
How's it all going to fit? That's the No. 1 question, and an exciting one, for the Cavaliers entering the season. That question was relevant for Waiters even before the blockbuster offseason, but now it's more pertinent than ever. Waiters didn't improve much in his second NBA season, finishing right at replacement level. His usage rate of 27.1 percent was prolific; his true shooting percentage of 50.8 was not, and was barely better than his first season. His possession distribution was the same, save for a few drawn fouls becoming for turnovers. The Cavs were better off with him on the floor according to RPM, but just barely.
Waiters might be able to continue his high-volume ways by embracing the sixth man role. He says he wants to start. Fine. But to do that, he can't be the same player. Waiters hit 37 percent from deep last season, an encouraging sign, and he was particularly good in catch-and-shoot situations. He can reduce his usage by being more judicious with his forays to the basket. He's struggled to finish as a pro, and doesn't draw a particularly high rate of fouls. Waiters reportedly spent his offseason slimming down, which hopefully will help him improve a shoddy defensive record. There are changes Waiters can make, but with James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving expected to account for 75 to 80 percent of the Cavs' possessions, there's only so much Waiters will be allowed to do.
LEBRON JAMES, SF
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
P/40R/40A/40WIN %WARP
Player card »
26.77.47.4.76020.3
Scouting report
+ Remains the NBA's best player.
+ Has three straight seasons with usage rate over 30 percent, and true shooting percentage over 60.
+ Former all-NBA defender whose performances there ebbed last season.
Analysis
The ground is still shaking from LeBron James' decision to leave Miami and return to his native northeast Ohio, making the Cavaliers instantly the marquee franchise they were before he left four years ago. James is still the best player in the game, Kevin Durant's MVP season notwithstanding, but at the end of four straight runs to the Finals with the Heat, there were some ever-so-slight signs of wear-and-tear -- if you look real close. He had to carry more of an offensive burden with Dwyane Wade's minutes being carefully managed. He did so by posting yet another career high in true shooting percentage. He played less at power forward, so more of his game drifted back behind the arc. He drew more fouls, but his turnover rate was a career worst. And of course, in the end, James didn't have quite enough to carry the Heat to their much-desired three-peat.
There was much talk about James' decline on the defensive end. His RPM there fell below break-even, at minus-0.8. His defensive rebounding was down by 1.9 percent, and his shot-block rate was its lowest in seven years. Given his offensive load and his 38 minutes per game, James had to conserve energy somehow. Now that he's on a younger roster with lots of offensive firepower, we could see James become more of a point forward than ever, despite the presence of Kyrie Irving in the lineup. He went on a low-carb kick after the Finals and looked remarkably trimmed down. That bodes well for his ability to last another long season, and suggests time as a power forward will be limited. Expect some of the best floor-game percentages of James' career and an emphatic answer to those who decried his defense.
KEVIN LOVE, PF
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
P/40R/40A/40WIN %WARP
Player card »
24.011.94.1.70415.1
Scouting report
+ Rare combination of post play and 3-point shooting ability from frontcourt.
+ Elite rebounder on defensive end, though increased time on perimeter has undermined offensive board rates.
+ Poor defensive reputation not supported by metrics.
Analysis
Rarely has back-channeled disgruntlement paid off so handsomely. Without saying much publicly, somehow Love and his representatives let everybody know that he had no plans to hang around Minnesota after this season. After a long summer and endless slog of rumors, Love ended up as LeBron's new running mate in Cleveland. Thus he goes from a player yet to log a postseason second in six NBA seasons to a key component of the 2014-15 championship chase. Love's individual production has never been in question. He's ranked in the top six in WARP in three of the last four seasons, the exception being an injury-marred 2012-13 campaign. Last season, only Kevin Durant and James had a better individual season.
Love became more perimeter-oriented last season, getting fewer shots at the rim and taking more 3s than ever. He's good enough behind the arc to make that work. He's also good enough as a post player to consistently attract double teams and he's a skilled passer. With Cleveland, Love may find himself as the No. 3 offensive options, which means a renewed effort at scoring around the rim and attacking the offensive glass. His usage rate has been right around 29 percent the last three seasons, and that's going to be difficult to maintain with James and Irving on the floor, not to mention Dion Waiters. However, Love finished sixth in the league in WARP in 2010-11 despite 23 percent usage. As for his much-criticized defense, he's had a positive defensive RPM in each of the last five seasons. Love can be an elite player without being the alpha dog and if he becomes that this season, he'll be handsomely rewarded for it when he hits free agency in July.
PROJECTED STARTERS
KYRIE IRVING, PG
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
P/40R/40A/40WIN %WARP
Player card »
25.43.97.5.65113.3
Scouting report
+ Blossoming, upper-tier point guard with good playmaking and ball-protection skills.
+ Equally adept scoring on jumpers off the dribble with range and attacking the lane.
+ Indifferent defender despite high-level athletic ability.
Analysis
It's crazy how ephemeral professional sports can be. Early last season, Kyrie Irving's name kept popping up on the whisper-mill as a possible candidate to turn down a max extension to his rookie contract, sign a qualifying offer, and bolt Cleveland as soon as possible. Now, that max extension is on the books -- five years, $90 million -- and Irving is in the enviable position of trying to aid LeBron James' quest to bring championship glory back to the banks of Lake Erie. Irving will play a younger version of Dwyane Wade in the James reboot and if his play for Team USA over the summer is any indication, it's going to be a successful project.
Injuries, losing and coaching turnover have stunted Irving's growth in the NBA. Last season, his shooting efficiency dropped, though the losses were partially offset by a better turnover rate in Mike Brown's system. After hitting 39 percent or more from deep, he fell to 36 percent. Playing alongside James, Irving's catch-and-shoot skills will be tested. According to Synergy, Irving ranked in just the 27th percentile in those spots last season. He shot nine percent better off the dribble than without. Still, the attention James attracts will help boost Irving's already fine pick-and-roll game. He draws fouls and kicks out to shooters well. On defense, Irving has been a consistent negative despite his athletic gifts, posting a minus-2.0 defensive RPM or worse in all three of his seasons. Hopefully that changes now that the stakes are higher.
DION WAITERS, SG
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
P/40R/40A/40WIN %WARP
Player card »
20.43.54.2.4411.2
Scouting report
+ Versatile volume scorer.
+ Good with ball in hands, but improved as catch-and-shooter.
+ Combo guard body and struggles on defense.
Analysis
How's it all going to fit? That's the No. 1 question, and an exciting one, for the Cavaliers entering the season. That question was relevant for Waiters even before the blockbuster offseason, but now it's more pertinent than ever. Waiters didn't improve much in his second NBA season, finishing right at replacement level. His usage rate of 27.1 percent was prolific; his true shooting percentage of 50.8 was not, and was barely better than his first season. His possession distribution was the same, save for a few drawn fouls becoming for turnovers. The Cavs were better off with him on the floor according to RPM, but just barely.
Waiters might be able to continue his high-volume ways by embracing the sixth man role. He says he wants to start. Fine. But to do that, he can't be the same player. Waiters hit 37 percent from deep last season, an encouraging sign, and he was particularly good in catch-and-shoot situations. He can reduce his usage by being more judicious with his forays to the basket. He's struggled to finish as a pro, and doesn't draw a particularly high rate of fouls. Waiters reportedly spent his offseason slimming down, which hopefully will help him improve a shoddy defensive record. There are changes Waiters can make, but with James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving expected to account for 75 to 80 percent of the Cavs' possessions, there's only so much Waiters will be allowed to do.
LEBRON JAMES, SF
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
P/40R/40A/40WIN %WARP
Player card »
26.77.47.4.76020.3
Scouting report
+ Remains the NBA's best player.
+ Has three straight seasons with usage rate over 30 percent, and true shooting percentage over 60.
+ Former all-NBA defender whose performances there ebbed last season.
Analysis
The ground is still shaking from LeBron James' decision to leave Miami and return to his native northeast Ohio, making the Cavaliers instantly the marquee franchise they were before he left four years ago. James is still the best player in the game, Kevin Durant's MVP season notwithstanding, but at the end of four straight runs to the Finals with the Heat, there were some ever-so-slight signs of wear-and-tear -- if you look real close. He had to carry more of an offensive burden with Dwyane Wade's minutes being carefully managed. He did so by posting yet another career high in true shooting percentage. He played less at power forward, so more of his game drifted back behind the arc. He drew more fouls, but his turnover rate was a career worst. And of course, in the end, James didn't have quite enough to carry the Heat to their much-desired three-peat.
There was much talk about James' decline on the defensive end. His RPM there fell below break-even, at minus-0.8. His defensive rebounding was down by 1.9 percent, and his shot-block rate was its lowest in seven years. Given his offensive load and his 38 minutes per game, James had to conserve energy somehow. Now that he's on a younger roster with lots of offensive firepower, we could see James become more of a point forward than ever, despite the presence of Kyrie Irving in the lineup. He went on a low-carb kick after the Finals and looked remarkably trimmed down. That bodes well for his ability to last another long season, and suggests time as a power forward will be limited. Expect some of the best floor-game percentages of James' career and an emphatic answer to those who decried his defense.
KEVIN LOVE, PF
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
P/40R/40A/40WIN %WARP
Player card »
24.011.94.1.70415.1
Scouting report
+ Rare combination of post play and 3-point shooting ability from frontcourt.
+ Elite rebounder on defensive end, though increased time on perimeter has undermined offensive board rates.
+ Poor defensive reputation not supported by metrics.
Analysis
Rarely has back-channeled disgruntlement paid off so handsomely. Without saying much publicly, somehow Love and his representatives let everybody know that he had no plans to hang around Minnesota after this season. After a long summer and endless slog of rumors, Love ended up as LeBron's new running mate in Cleveland. Thus he goes from a player yet to log a postseason second in six NBA seasons to a key component of the 2014-15 championship chase. Love's individual production has never been in question. He's ranked in the top six in WARP in three of the last four seasons, the exception being an injury-marred 2012-13 campaign. Last season, only Kevin Durant and James had a better individual season.
Love became more perimeter-oriented last season, getting fewer shots at the rim and taking more 3s than ever. He's good enough behind the arc to make that work. He's also good enough as a post player to consistently attract double teams and he's a skilled passer. With Cleveland, Love may find himself as the No. 3 offensive options, which means a renewed effort at scoring around the rim and attacking the offensive glass. His usage rate has been right around 29 percent the last three seasons, and that's going to be difficult to maintain with James and Irving on the floor, not to mention Dion Waiters. However, Love finished sixth in the league in WARP in 2010-11 despite 23 percent usage. As for his much-criticized defense, he's had a positive defensive RPM in each of the last five seasons. Love can be an elite player without being the alpha dog and if he becomes that this season, he'll be handsomely rewarded for it when he hits free agency in July.
muzikfrk75
#4080
TRISTAN THOMPSON, PF/C
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
P/40R/40A/40WIN %WARP
Player card »
14.010.41.4.4441.4
Scouting report
+ Top rebounder on both ends.
+ Switch in shooting hand helped free throw percentage.
+ Needs to improve rim protection and overall defense.
Analysis
Tristan Thompson has started all 82 games the last two seasons and played almost exclusively at power forward. Now he's eligible for an extension and getting ready to play for the best team he's been on by far. And yet somehow, this combination of factors has cast his immediate future into uncertainty. Thompson won't be starting at 4 for Cleveland anymore, not with Love around. He's also not likely to get the $40 million extension he's reportedly after, not with a massive contract to Kyrie Irving on the books, and two more headed to Love and LeBron James next summer. Yet the Cavaliers need Thompson in the here and now, and as insurance for the unlikely possibility that Love wants to bolt for the West Coast after the season.
Thompson made the unprecedented move of switching his primary shooting hand from left to right last season. It worked for the most part. His free throw percentage was easily his best, and he became more efficient as a face-up shooter. That's all relative though, because he ending taking more shots away from the hoop, his field-goal percentage slipped. The bottom line was lower volume and improved, but still below average, offensive efficiency. Thompson is a dynamic rebounder though and draws a high rate of fouls. His defensive metrics are poor. He doesn't block a lot of shots and his defensive RPM was minus-1.9. Nevertheless, there has been talk of Cleveland starting him at center in hopes of keeping brittle center Anderson Varejao upright for a deep playoff run. It's crucial for Thompson's financial future that he shows he can contribute to a winning team now that he has a chance.
Pelton's 2014-15 Projections
P/40R/40A/40WIN %WARP
Player card »
14.010.41.4.4441.4
Scouting report
+ Top rebounder on both ends.
+ Switch in shooting hand helped free throw percentage.
+ Needs to improve rim protection and overall defense.
Analysis
Tristan Thompson has started all 82 games the last two seasons and played almost exclusively at power forward. Now he's eligible for an extension and getting ready to play for the best team he's been on by far. And yet somehow, this combination of factors has cast his immediate future into uncertainty. Thompson won't be starting at 4 for Cleveland anymore, not with Love around. He's also not likely to get the $40 million extension he's reportedly after, not with a massive contract to Kyrie Irving on the books, and two more headed to Love and LeBron James next summer. Yet the Cavaliers need Thompson in the here and now, and as insurance for the unlikely possibility that Love wants to bolt for the West Coast after the season.
Thompson made the unprecedented move of switching his primary shooting hand from left to right last season. It worked for the most part. His free throw percentage was easily his best, and he became more efficient as a face-up shooter. That's all relative though, because he ending taking more shots away from the hoop, his field-goal percentage slipped. The bottom line was lower volume and improved, but still below average, offensive efficiency. Thompson is a dynamic rebounder though and draws a high rate of fouls. His defensive metrics are poor. He doesn't block a lot of shots and his defensive RPM was minus-1.9. Nevertheless, there has been talk of Cleveland starting him at center in hopes of keeping brittle center Anderson Varejao upright for a deep playoff run. It's crucial for Thompson's financial future that he shows he can contribute to a winning team now that he has a chance.
muzikfrk75
#4080
Cleveland Cavs: 2014-15 Forecast
What the Cavaliers did this summer was more than a splash -- it was like a meteor crashing into Lake Erie. The resulting fallout has shaken up the NBA's power structure and put Cleveland in position to end a 50-year professional sports championship drought. Everything that happens in the NBA over the next half-decade will be a reverberation from LeBron James' decision to return to the Cavaliers. Cleveland had some hits and misses during its rebuilding plan, but the bottom line is that there was enough in place to remain an option when James became available.
LeBron's return was just one of Cleveland's happy summer developments. Kyrie Irving has yet to make it through a season healthy, but he has shown signs of stardom and may have been the best player on Team USA over the summer. Dion Waiters is an emerging offensive threat, and if he chooses to accept the assignment could morph into a Vinnie Johnson-like scoring threat in the new Cleveland pecking order. He spent the summer studying LeBron, and how he can fit with him.
And of course, the Cavaliers once again landed the No. 1 pick in the lottery for an amazing third time in the four post-LeBron seasons. This time the prize was Andrew Wiggins, a high-flyer with tremendous upside who would learn so much from LeBron ... if only he weren't such sweet trade fodder. The last two lottery payoffs, Wiggins and Anthony Bennett, turned out to have a more immediate impact than expected. Once Kevin Love decided he would not remain in Minnesota over the long haul, the Cavaliers were in perfect position to cash in. Has a team ever had a better summer?
Pythagorean W-L: 30-52)
Offensive Efficiency: 105.6 (23rd)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.2 (17th)
Pace Factor: 91.9 (18th)
Highest WARP: Kyrie Irving (9.3)
The idea was that if that kind of forward momentum was established that it might make James take a second look when summer rolled around. As it turned out, he took just one look, and he knew enough about the young players on the Cavs that, playoff berth or not, it was good enough to bring him home.
Now that James is back, we can review his four years away with a special kind of perspective. The first season was brutal. In addition to the city battling the shock of James' departure, the team was left saddled with his supporting cast, one that existed only to augment his skills. Cleveland plummeted from 61 wins to 19. Yet, James' return was already beginning to foment, because the horrible season yielded them Irving, as well as Tristan Thompson. While the losing continued, the Cavs continued to add to the young core, and the win total crept up: from 19 to 21 to 24 to 33. Now, the days of 60 wins could be back.
OFFSEASON MOVES
AP Photo/Mark DuncanKevin Love's 26.97 PER was third in the NBA behind Kevin Durant and new teammate James.
Love pushes Irving down to No. 3 in the talent pecking order, and creates the best big three in the NBA. The Cavaliers also added veteran shooters Mike Miller and James Jones. But the underrated move of the summer might have been one of the last: signing Shawn Marion. The Cleveland offense will be distributing as many as 80 percent of its possessions among James, Love and Irving when they're on the court. High-volume scorer Waiters has to be accounted for as well. The Cavs will need catch-and-shooter players, but they also need defenders to keep James from expending too much energy on that end.
INSIDER'S PLAYER PROFILES
Check out Insider's player scouting reports and '14-15 stat projections for the Cavs roster. Player Profiles
Marion addresses all of these needs. He can guard every position on the floor capably, and he adds to the team's profile with steals and blocks. He's not a great shooter, but ranked in the 68th percentile in catch-and-shoot situations last season, per Synergy Sports Technologies. He's good enough in the corners that teams can't ignore him. Marion brings the promise of exceptional lineup versatility. That puts another key acquisition on the spot -- new coach Dave Blatt, one of the most decorated international coaches in the world.
Depth could be a problem, especially if Waiters doesn't take to a bench role. Blatt should be able to spread his rotation around so James, Irving and Love will all get shifts as the No. 1 option. But right now, the backup center is Brendan Haywood, who didn't play last season and was below replacement the year before that. Miller played 82 games last year, but can he hold up again? Thompson has been a feature player the last two years. Can he adapt to coming off the bench? If he starts, can he provide the needed lane protection at center if he's out of position? Of course, this is all probably nitpicking. Any coach in the NBA would love to have the "problems" this roster presents.
2014-15 OUTLOOK
Marcus SmithExpectations are high in Cleveland now that Irving, James and Love are in the same unis.
To say SCHOENE is excited about the Cavs is a gross understatement. It never has been more excited about a team, and the offense projects as historically good. The defense also projects as top five, but that forecast seems tenuous, based on a lot of high-level rebounding, steals and last year's indicators in contesting shots.
PELTON'S 2014-15 PROJECTIONS
Projected Offensive Rating: 118.0 (1st)
Projected Defensive Rating: 106.2 (4th)
SCHOENE Projected Record: 68-14
Real Plus-Minus Projected Record: 56-26
It's a new team, and we don't even know what kind of defense Blatt is going to roll out. He also has to come up with a scheme that accounts for Cleveland's relative lack of shot blocking.
If you really want to be a pessimist, you could also say the team could be undone if Waiters can't relegate himself to a supporting role, or if Love can't re-adapt to his former status as a board crasher and complementary offensive option, or if Thompson fails in a reduced role. On paper, the Cavaliers project as the league's overwhelming favorite to end Cleveland's 50-year title drought. Is that an offseason splash? They might have to invent a new word.
ESPN Forecast: 59-23, 1st in Central, 1st in Eastern Conference
What the Cavaliers did this summer was more than a splash -- it was like a meteor crashing into Lake Erie. The resulting fallout has shaken up the NBA's power structure and put Cleveland in position to end a 50-year professional sports championship drought. Everything that happens in the NBA over the next half-decade will be a reverberation from LeBron James' decision to return to the Cavaliers. Cleveland had some hits and misses during its rebuilding plan, but the bottom line is that there was enough in place to remain an option when James became available.
LeBron's return was just one of Cleveland's happy summer developments. Kyrie Irving has yet to make it through a season healthy, but he has shown signs of stardom and may have been the best player on Team USA over the summer. Dion Waiters is an emerging offensive threat, and if he chooses to accept the assignment could morph into a Vinnie Johnson-like scoring threat in the new Cleveland pecking order. He spent the summer studying LeBron, and how he can fit with him.
And of course, the Cavaliers once again landed the No. 1 pick in the lottery for an amazing third time in the four post-LeBron seasons. This time the prize was Andrew Wiggins, a high-flyer with tremendous upside who would learn so much from LeBron ... if only he weren't such sweet trade fodder. The last two lottery payoffs, Wiggins and Anthony Bennett, turned out to have a more immediate impact than expected. Once Kevin Love decided he would not remain in Minnesota over the long haul, the Cavaliers were in perfect position to cash in. Has a team ever had a better summer?
Pythagorean W-L: 30-52)
Offensive Efficiency: 105.6 (23rd)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.2 (17th)
Pace Factor: 91.9 (18th)
Highest WARP: Kyrie Irving (9.3)
The idea was that if that kind of forward momentum was established that it might make James take a second look when summer rolled around. As it turned out, he took just one look, and he knew enough about the young players on the Cavs that, playoff berth or not, it was good enough to bring him home.
Now that James is back, we can review his four years away with a special kind of perspective. The first season was brutal. In addition to the city battling the shock of James' departure, the team was left saddled with his supporting cast, one that existed only to augment his skills. Cleveland plummeted from 61 wins to 19. Yet, James' return was already beginning to foment, because the horrible season yielded them Irving, as well as Tristan Thompson. While the losing continued, the Cavs continued to add to the young core, and the win total crept up: from 19 to 21 to 24 to 33. Now, the days of 60 wins could be back.
OFFSEASON MOVES
Love pushes Irving down to No. 3 in the talent pecking order, and creates the best big three in the NBA. The Cavaliers also added veteran shooters Mike Miller and James Jones. But the underrated move of the summer might have been one of the last: signing Shawn Marion. The Cleveland offense will be distributing as many as 80 percent of its possessions among James, Love and Irving when they're on the court. High-volume scorer Waiters has to be accounted for as well. The Cavs will need catch-and-shooter players, but they also need defenders to keep James from expending too much energy on that end.
INSIDER'S PLAYER PROFILES
Check out Insider's player scouting reports and '14-15 stat projections for the Cavs roster. Player Profiles
Marion addresses all of these needs. He can guard every position on the floor capably, and he adds to the team's profile with steals and blocks. He's not a great shooter, but ranked in the 68th percentile in catch-and-shoot situations last season, per Synergy Sports Technologies. He's good enough in the corners that teams can't ignore him. Marion brings the promise of exceptional lineup versatility. That puts another key acquisition on the spot -- new coach Dave Blatt, one of the most decorated international coaches in the world.
Depth could be a problem, especially if Waiters doesn't take to a bench role. Blatt should be able to spread his rotation around so James, Irving and Love will all get shifts as the No. 1 option. But right now, the backup center is Brendan Haywood, who didn't play last season and was below replacement the year before that. Miller played 82 games last year, but can he hold up again? Thompson has been a feature player the last two years. Can he adapt to coming off the bench? If he starts, can he provide the needed lane protection at center if he's out of position? Of course, this is all probably nitpicking. Any coach in the NBA would love to have the "problems" this roster presents.
2014-15 OUTLOOK
To say SCHOENE is excited about the Cavs is a gross understatement. It never has been more excited about a team, and the offense projects as historically good. The defense also projects as top five, but that forecast seems tenuous, based on a lot of high-level rebounding, steals and last year's indicators in contesting shots.
PELTON'S 2014-15 PROJECTIONS
Projected Offensive Rating: 118.0 (1st)
Projected Defensive Rating: 106.2 (4th)
SCHOENE Projected Record: 68-14
Real Plus-Minus Projected Record: 56-26
It's a new team, and we don't even know what kind of defense Blatt is going to roll out. He also has to come up with a scheme that accounts for Cleveland's relative lack of shot blocking.
If you really want to be a pessimist, you could also say the team could be undone if Waiters can't relegate himself to a supporting role, or if Love can't re-adapt to his former status as a board crasher and complementary offensive option, or if Thompson fails in a reduced role. On paper, the Cavaliers project as the league's overwhelming favorite to end Cleveland's 50-year title drought. Is that an offseason splash? They might have to invent a new word.
ESPN Forecast: 59-23, 1st in Central, 1st in Eastern Conference
Big Ten's top returning prospects
Sam Dekker was arguably the top player at this summer's LeBron James Skills Academy.
ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton return to provide the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA, where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down draft prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."
For the past several weeks, Ford and Pelton have been breaking down the top returning college prospects in the country in some of the biggest conferences. They previously have broken down the Pac-12, Big 12 and ACC. Today, they tackle the Big Ten.
Ford: The Big Ten is the first major conference we've written about without an elite freshman on our Big Board (though some scouts believe Ohio State's D'Angelo Russell could be a lottery pick someday). In fact there are only a couple of prospects in the Big Ten getting serious looks in the first round. We took a look at one of them, Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky, a couple of weeks ago.
At the top of my list is one of Kaminsky's teammates:
Dekker
Sam Dekker | F | Jr. | Wisconsin Badgers
Ford Big Board ranking: No. 16
Kevin's Draft Board ranking: No. 5
Ford: Scouts have been intrigued with Dekker since his freshman year. He's a versatile forward who can do a bit of everything and plays with a really high basketball IQ. He's got the athleticism and toughness to succeed, and he even grew a bit over the summer. He drew as much praise as any returning college player this summer at the LeBron James Skills Academy.
I think the question for Dekker centers on position. Who does he guard and can he shoot the ball well enough to be a NBA 3-point threat? What do the numbers say, Kevin? I know they loved him as a freshman.
Pelton: And loved him as a sophomore as well. When you take out freshmen and international players, we actually both have Dekker ranked in the same spot among returning players. But he's still likely to grade out as a lottery pick if not top 10 by my metric once those players are included.
Despite slumping to 32.6 percent beyond the arc, Dekker was still efficient last season because he made 55.0 percent of his 2-point attempts. And he gets a hidden boost from his sure-handed ballhandling. He turned the ball over on just 8.8 percent of his plays. Those skills should translate well to the NBA.
My next-best prospect is a Michigan guard ... but not the one you're probably thinking.
Irvin
Zak Irvin | SG | Soph. | Michigan Wolverines
Ford Big Board ranking: No. 86
Kevin's Draft Board ranking: No. 10
Pelton: As a freshman coming off the bench, Irvin attempted 10.3 3-pointers per 40 minutes and made 42.5 percent of them. His projected NBA 3-point percentage (36.0 percent) ranks third among prospects in Chad's Top 100. Now Irvin steps into Nik Stauskas' spot in the starting lineup and has a chance for a breakout season.
Ford: I know Michigan sure hopes you're right, Kevin. I see the appeal. Irvin was a very efficient spot-up shooter as a freshman and he didn't hesitate to let it fly when he had the chance. If Irvin can really step up and keep shooting with that efficiency now that he'll be a focal point for defenses, he's got a great shot at being a first-rounder.
I think much of the pessimism in our rankings comes from a very uneventful summer for Irvin. At Adidas Nations the ball wasn't going in the basket, and he didn't help himself by not getting to the free throw line. He's such a one-dimensional player right now that if he isn't making his spot-up 3s, he doesn't provide much value on the court. He can't create his own shot off the dribble, almost never gets to the free throw line and his shooting percentages dipped dramatically when shooting off the bounce. So, he's either going to have to improve his off-the-dribble game dramatically or he's going to have to replicate his red-hot shooting from his freshman season. I think scouts are just a little pessimistic right now that he'll do either.
My next highest-rated returning prospect is Irvin's teammate:
LeVert
Caris Levert | SG | Jr. | Michigan Wolverines
Ford Big Board ranking: No. 21
Kevin's Draft Board ranking: No. 38
Ford: LeVert wasn't on the NBA radar at all as a freshman, but as scouts flocked to Ann Arbor to evaluate Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III last year, many of them fell in love with LeVert as well. He's a long, lanky swingman who is sort of a jack of all trades. He can shoot the 3-pointer, finish at the rim, defend multiple positions and he's an elite athlete to boot. He lacks a strong midrange game right now, but the fact that just 6.5 percent of his 2-point attempts were assisted last year (that's a shockingly low number) might explain his inefficiency. I'm not sure any player in the country was more improved than LeVert between his freshman and sophomore years. He's going to be asked, along with Irvin, to carry a heavy load at Michigan this season. If he continues to improve the way he did last year, he should be more than worthy of a first-round pick. In fact, most of the scouts I've spoken with have him ranked a little higher than we do. I've been a little hesitant to rank him higher.
Pelton: If we just looked at LeVert's sophomore season, he'd rank about even with Irvin. Remarkably, he's only a couple of weeks older than Irvin despite having a full additional year of NCAA experience. But my WARP projections place more weight on earlier seasons, and while LeVert's increased minutes means his sophomore campaign still is the larger factor in the projection, his poor freshman effort is dragging down his projection.
I doubt my numbers will ever have him as high as the scouts have him, but another strong season will boost LeVert's projection. In particular, he should be able to improve his projected 3-point percentage and steal rate, which doubled from his freshman to sophomore seasons.
Hollins
Andre Hollins | PG | Sr. |Minnesota Golden Gophers
Ford Big Board ranking: N/R
Kevin's Draft Board ranking: No. 20
Pelton: A theme that's emerging as we go conference-by-conference is that veteran point guards rate better in my projections than in the eyes of scouts looking for more upside. Given his sub-40 career field-goal percentage, Hollins doesn't look like an efficient scorer. However, he's attempted more 3s than 2s and made them at a 38.2 percent clip, and he also gets to the free throw line regularly (where he's a .844 shooter). So as a sophomore, Hollins had an excellent .577 true shooting percentage before slumping beyond the arc as a junior. I can see him carving out a career akin to A.J. Price as a shoot-first backup point guard.
Ford: Hollins drew significant interest from scouts after a very strong sophomore season. But his regression as a junior destroyed his draft stock. He's going to have to dramatically improve his field goal percentage back to his sophomore numbers and prove to scouts that he's a point guard. At 6-foot-1, he has no shot of playing the 2 in the NBA, and his assist numbers plummeted to just 2.4 APG as a junior. I think that's a steep hill to overcome as a senior.
Others draft prospects in the Big Ten: Branden Dawson, G/F, Sr., Michigan State; A.J. Hammons, C, Jr., Purdue; Terran Petteway, G/F, Sr., Nebraska; Troy Williams, SF, So., Indiana; Sam Thompson Jr., F, Sr., Indiana; Dezmine Wells, SG, Sr., Maryland; Yogi Ferrell, PG, Jr. Indiana; Shannon Scott, PG, Sr., Ohio State
Why the Cowboys are overrated
The Dallas Cowboys have won six straight games and now have the NFL's best record at 6-1. They made their first big statement a month ago by routing New Orleans in prime time. Last week, they went into Seattle and became only the second road team in the past two years to win at CenturyLink Field. This week, they easily took out the New York Giants in their first NFC East matchup of the season. DeMarco Murray broke an NFL record with his seventh straight 100-yard game and Tony Romo leads the NFL in completion rate (69.2 percent) and has 97.5 QBR on third downs.
It finally seems like the glory days have returned for America's Team after three straight years of 8-8. The ESPN Power Rankings currently have Dallas as the No. 2 team in the league, trailing only the Denver Broncos.
However, a look at their performance over the season to date suggests that the Cowboys aren't quite that good. Dallas is very good, but not great. According to the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, the Cowboys aren't even one of the top-five teams in the NFL, trailing Denver, Baltimore, Green Bay and Indianapolis. They even trail Seattle, which has played the toughest schedule in the NFL this year, although obviously the Cowboys deserve credit for giving the Seahawks their worst loss of the season. (DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, is explained further here. You can find the numbers through Week 7 here.)
Let's get this out of the way first: Murray is not overrated. Dez Bryant is not overrated. The Cowboys' offensive line is not overrated. And Romo, longtime punching bag of the football commentariat, is definitely not overrated. DVOA ranks the Cowboys' offense third, trailing only Denver and Green Bay.
Nonetheless, there are three main units on a football team, and the other two units really haven't been very good. The defense has certainly been better than last year, and better than everyone expected before the season, but that doesn't mean it's been good. And on special teams, except for kicker Dan Bailey, they have been decidedly below average.
On a per-play basis, that Cowboys defense that looks so much improved has actually been almost as bad as it was a year ago. Dallas is allowing the same average of 6.1 yards per play, with roughly the same frequency of turnovers. The biggest difference for the defense is actually the offense, which is keeping the defense off the field with those extended, run-heavy drives. Only two defenses have been on the field for a shorter time per game. Less time on the field means less yardage and scoring allowed.
How Dallas' defense measures up
Category20132014
Yds per play6.16.1
Net Yds per pass7.06.8
Pass DVOA rank2711
Yds per carry4.74.9
Run DVOA rank2826
TO per game1.751.71
Opp TOP rank243
The Cowboys' defense is also better this season because of the distribution of the yardage it has given up. The Cowboys have been better than last season on both first and second down, which means they can give up a little bit more yardage on third down and not be hurt by it. The Cowboys have given up 6.90 yards per play on third or fourth downs in 2014, compared to 6.36 yards per play in 2013. However, they've allowed the same 44 percent conversion rate that they did a year ago.
As for special teams, Bailey has been the most valuable kicker in the league on field goals this season, going 14-of-15, with his only miss coming from 53 yards. He's also been above average on kickoffs. However, the Cowboys rank 18th in our ratings for kick returns, 29th for punts and 30th for punt returns. Though Dwayne Harris has been good in the past, he has muffed or fumbled four different punts this year, and he doesn't have a kickoff return of over 30 yards.
The Cowboys look better than they really have been in part because we are judging them based on how good we thought their opponents were when the Cowboys played them, not based on how good those teams really are this season. For instance:
-- When the Cowboys dismantled Tennessee in Week 2, we all thought that was a big deal because the Titans had played so well in Week 1 -- a game that now looks like a complete fluke.
-- San Francisco and Seattle are clearly not the juggernauts they were a year ago.
-- And as for scoring 38 points on this season's New Orleans Saints ... gee, get in line.
Furthermore, our ratings have the Cowboys lower than conventional wisdom because we are measuring all seven games this season, not just the last six. The Cowboys certainly no longer look like the team that lost 28-17 to San Francisco on the first Sunday of the season. If we measure just the six games in their winning streak, the Cowboys' DVOA goes from 14 percent better than average to 26 percent better than average.
But if you are going to only consider the Cowboys' record since Week 2, then you have to extend the same privilege to the rest of the league. And it just so happens that a number of this season's top teams have overcome bad games in Week 1. Baltimore lost in Week 1. So did Green Bay, Indianapolis, San Diego and New England. So if we remove Week 1 from consideration, not only does Dallas look better, but all those teams look better as well. If we only look at DVOA for Week 2 onward, the Cowboys still trail Denver, Baltimore and Green Bay. Their defense is still just 14th, their special teams 21st.
None of this is to say that the Cowboys are about to collapse, of course. Being the fifth- or seventh-best team in the NFL is still pretty good, and the Cowboys have an average remaining schedule. Our playoff odds simulation currently gives them a 90 percent chance of making the playoffs, and a 38 percent chance of getting a first-round bye. However, Jerry Jones shouldn't start measuring his finger for a fourth Super Bowl ring quite yet. What's the difference between Dallas and a truly great team? Well, Dallas through Week 7 is tied as the sixth-best team of 2014. Denver through Week 7 is the sixth-best team of the entire last 25 years. Not quite the same thing.
Best and worst losses for 1-loss teams
For all of the debate about who should be ranked No. 1 among the three undefeated, power-conference teams, the far greater challenge right now when filling out a ballot is ranking the teams with one loss.
There are 15 once-beaten teams in this week's AP Top 25, and eight or nine of them could probably make a legitimate claim to being No. 4. That number of one-loss teams is sure to dwindle in the next few weeks, but there's still a good chance that the selection committee will face the difficult decision of which two or three of those teams to put into the playoff.
Obviously, there's much more to any team's résumé than a single loss, but if the BCS era is an indicator, the nature of that loss could become a major topic of discussion when distinguishing among the once-beaten teams. Perhaps that's because in a sport where there is so little common ground on which to compare top teams, having exactly one loss is the trait they all share.
So, recognizing that this could be a factor in determining which teams get into the playoff, here are the best and worst losses by current Top 25 teams that have only one defeat. The losses are ranked by Game Score, which is a metric developed by ESPN Stats & Information that takes into account quality of the opponent, location of the game, flow of the game and final score. It's important to note that opponent quality adjusts as more games are played, so these Game Scores will also change from week-to-week. (All Game Scores can be seen by clicking team links on the FPI page.)
BEST LOSSES
Game Score: 72
This one is easy to understand. On the road against the current No. 3 team in the Football Power Index, Alabama led by 11 at the half and continued to lead until the final six minutes. Then after falling behind 23-17, the Tide drove downfield with a chance to win but were intercepted in the end zone with about 30 seconds left. As long as Ole Miss stays unbeaten, this will continue to be one of the best losses by any team this season.
Game Score: 71
Like Alabama, Notre Dame lost a close game on the road to a currently undefeated team. The Irish never led by more than seven points, but they also never trailed until the final 31-27 score was posted with just under eight minutes left in the game. We know how it ended, of course, but Game Score gives no consideration to whether a penalty was controversial. It simply recognizes that the game ended on an interception in the end zone. Ultimately, what keeps this loss by Notre Dame slightly behind the Alabama loss is that Florida State currently ranks seventh in FPI, so Bama's opponent is considered to be slightly better.
Game Score: 70
Here's another road loss against a very good opponent in a 61-58 game that was decided in the final minute. In this case, the winning points came on the last play. Having led by 21 in the fourth quarter, TCU was more in control of this game than Alabama and Notre Dame were in their losses, but with Baylor having since dropped a game and fallen to 10th in FPI, this Game Score isn't quite as good as it would've been at this time last week.
Game Score: 65
Kansas State gets docked a little for having lost at home 20-14, but it was a tight game against the team currently ranked first in FPI. But for all the legitimate talk about how the Wildcats "could have won," the Game Score is also taking into account that Auburn led by double digits for more than 10 minutes of the fourth quarter, and that Kansas State never got the ball back after cutting the lead to six with a little less than four minutes to go.
Game Score: 62
This may be the most dissected loss in college football this season because it happened way back in Week 2. Give Michigan State credit for having the guts to schedule a trip to Eugene, and also give it credit for twice overcoming an 11-point deficit in the first half and holding the lead with two minutes remaining in the third quarter. But two quick touchdowns put Oregon up 12 in the opening minute of the fourth quarter, and that was as close as it got the rest of the way in the 46-27 loss. A late TD created the misleading final margin of 19, but this Game Score is lower than some people might expect because the Spartans never really threatened in the final 10 minutes.
WORST LOSSES
Game Score: 27
There's an excuse to be made for the Buckeyes, facing a good defensive team in the second career game for a freshman quarterback with four new starters on the offensive line. But at the end of the day, it was a home loss to a team that currently ranks 40th in FPI and has looked largely unimpressive aside from this one night in Columbus. On top of that, Ohio State never led in this game and lost 35-21, even though the final margin came from a defensive touchdown by Virginia Tech in the last minute.
Game Score: 38
Giving up 62 points and getting blown out on home field is never good, but it looks even worse now that UCLA has lost a couple of times. As with the Ohio State example, there's the excuse of a backup quarterback being forced into action (Mike Bercovici was making his first start for injured Taylor Kelly), but aside from an interception late in the first half that was returned for a TD, the offense wasn't the problem on this night in the 62-27 result.
Game Score: 44
Losing 27-22 on the road to the team currently ranked fifth in the USA Today coaches' poll seems like a result that should make the "best losses" list. There are two reasons why the Game Score sees it differently. The first is that Nebraska trailed 17-0 at half and 27-3 after three quarters, so the Cornhuskers didn't challenge Michigan State for most of the game. It was one of the rare instances where a team was basically blown out but almost won in the final minute. The second factor is that Michigan State is currently ranked 16th in FPI, and while the eye test probably disputes that assessment, it means that Nebraska's opponent isn't considered to be as good as most people think. But if the Spartans keep winning, it's hard to believe the selection committee would consider this a bad loss for the Huskers.
Game Score: 46
Here's another that might be a head-scratcher for many people, because Auburn lost 38-23 on the road to the No. 1 team in the polls. The explanation for the weak Game Score is similar to the Nebraska example. Mississippi State isn't No. 1 in FPI -- it ranks fifth. And the greater factor is that the game never really was in doubt. Auburn was down 21-0 after nine minutes, never managed to get any closer than eight the rest of the way, and trailed by double digits for the final 11:30 of the fourth quarter. As any Auburn fan would tell you, there was nothing attractive about it.
