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NCCU can remain on top

2014-15 MEAC Projected Standings
1. North Carolina Central | 2. Hampton | 3. Norfolk State | 4. Coppin State | 5. Morgan State | 6. Savannah State | 7. Delaware State | 8. Bethune-Cookman | 9. Howard | 10. Maryland-Eastern Shore | 11. North Carolina A&T | 12. South Carolina State | 13. Florida A&M


The MEAC would never be characterized as an efficient conference -- the league was 31st out of 32 conferences in points per possession last season. But that doesn't mean the MEAC lacks style, and in this case that style is "attacking." MEAC conference play rated out as No. 1 in Division I for free throws and offensive rebounds last season, as well as posting the second-highest block percentage. Defending league and tournament champion North Carolina Central was able to stand out by being vastly more efficient than its peers on the offensive end, as well as by playing the league's best defense.



2014-15 All-MEAC team
PositionNameTeamYear
ForwardJordan ParksNorth Carolina CentralSr.
GuardJames DanielHowardFr.
CenterKendall GrayDelaware StateSr.
GuardTaariq CephasCoppin StateSr.
GuardBrian DardenHamptonSo.


North Carolina Central returns its top three frontcourt players -- Jay Copeland, Karamo Jawara and Jordan Parks -- off a team that dominated the league on both sides of the ball last season. That likely means the Eagles' interior play -- for example, shooting 51 percent on 2s while holding opponents to 41 percent -- is in safe hands. The question mark will be NCCU's backcourt, where no less than four key seniors are gone. Coach LeVelle Moton won't be replacing them with youth, however, as two senior guards join the team in Anthony McDonald and Nimrod Hilliard. Add in two more junior college transfers and Jamal Ferguson coming over from Marquette and Moton has plenty of choices to fill out his backcourt rotation. The struggle will be to replace the firepower of Jeremy Ingram, and the Eagles could come back closer to the pack this season even while remaining on top.

Hampton had the best interior defense in the league last season, but much of that was due to departed senior Du'Vaughn Maxwell. Four starters do remain for coach Edward Joyner Jr., including scoring guard Brian Darden (103.9 offensive rating on 21.4 usage), and that should ensure Hampton is contending again. Junior Jervon Pressley is likely to be called upon to fill the vacant role of interior enforcer, and the Pirates will look to Tennessee transfer Quinton Chievous to give them a boost in a greatly expanded role over and above what he saw with the Volunteers.

Norfolk State is looking at a trio of transfers to complement senior point guard Jamal Fuentes and replace the production of three of last season's key seniors. The Spartans' best asset in 2013-14 was their ability to attack the offensive glass, with RaShid Gaston picking up 13 percent of available offensive rebounds last season. He will be seeing more minutes to snag second chances this year. Boston University transfer Malik Thomas will bear the responsibility of picking up frontcourt offensive efficiency. In the backcourt, there's a big 3-point shooting hole left by the departure of Malcolm Hawkins, and Fordham transfer Jeff Short will be called upon to be the team's primary outside specialist. If NSU gets the production it is hoping for from the transfers, it should be able to stay in the top half of the MEAC.

Coppin State welcomes new coach Michael Grant with a solid group of returnees, and if his two-season stint at Southern a decade ago is any indication, the Eagles will continue to play fast. In his previous incarnation as a Division I head coach Grant was nearly as reliant on 3s as the Eagles were last season. That has served CSU well in the absence of a solid interior offense. The top three perimeter shooters are back in Taariq Cephas, Sterling Smith and Arnold Fripp. Junior college big man Lawrence Fejokwu, who averaged 10 points in just 12 minutes a game last season, is expected to step into an immediate starting role and fill some of the interior-scoring void.

Last spring, Morgan State fell just short of an NCAA tournament berth after going down in the MEAC title game. Now Todd Bozeman faces the task of replacing his top three players, meaning 2014-15 might be an offensively challenged season. Bozeman does have his son Blake back in a starting role, as well as efficient wing Cedric Blossom (106.9 offensive rating). Donte Pretlow should inherit more minutes at guard, though the junior's shooting could stand some improvement: Pretlow's 11 percent 3-point accuracy last season (6-of-53) ranked dead-last in Division I among players with at least 50 attempts. Transfer bigs Cliff Cornish, Jordan Omogbehin and Zech Smith will try to keep Morgan State among the league's best shot-blocking squads.

Like Bozeman, Horace Broadnax is also replacing three seniors at Savannah State, but those starters didn't record the minutes that one might expect. The three played just 68 percent, 58 percent and 45 percent of the minutes respectively, meaning there are plenty of returnees with court experience this season. Sophomore Jeremiah Hill likely takes the primary shooter role Deven Williams leaves behind after leading the country in shot percentage. Terel Hall will man the point again, and some improvement in his turnover rate (30.6) and free throw percentage (47 percent) would help the team overcome lost offense. Overall, Broadnax's willingness to spread the minutes wealth last season should pay dividends in 2014-15.


Delaware State is fortunate to return three seniors, including 6-foot-10 Kendall Gray, to one of the league's top offenses. Gray was a brick wall on defense, but it's that end of the floor that sent the Hornets to a 5-11 conference record last season. Interior help for Gray is desperately needed. Former West Virginia Mountaineer and junior college transfer Aric dikkerson is expected to jump into the starting lineup as a swingman. If the Hornets can keep up on offense and limit opponent shooting just a little bit more, there is potential to compete near the top of the league.

Delaware State tied with four other teams at 5-11 in league play last season, and those teams will likely be battling for the top of the lower third of the league once again.

Bethune-Cookman was an oasis in the vast desert of MEAC 3-point shooting last season, and returners Clemmye Owers and Mikel Trapp are still around to ensure that continues. The Wildcats will need all the outside shooting they can get if they don't improve inside, where last season Gravelle Craig's team finished last in the league in defensive rebounding and near the bottom in 2-point defense. There will at least be more size with 6-9 Toledo transfer Delino Dear and 7-foot Harvard graduate Ugo Okam.

Howard has a solid base in 5-11 sophomore James Daniel, who managed to post a 103 offensive rating as a freshman while using 33.9 percent of possessions. And believe it or not, there will still be a huge number of shots to spread around while senior Prince Okoroh is out with a broken ankle. Howard is hoping College of Charleston transfer James "JC" Carlton can make an impact while shoring up the turnover issues that plagued the frontcourt.

Maryland-Eastern Shore has plenty of room to improve on defense, finishing last in the conference in defending both 2s and 3s last season. Playing some D will be even more imperative with the loss of Hakeem Baxter, who elected to transfer to UAB. Four seniors return, but it might be up to junior college bigs Dominique Elliot and Mike Myers to improve the defense.

North Carolina A&T could hang its hat on two things last season: leading the MEAC in both free throw rate and defensive rebounding. The Aggies will struggle to match the former, however, with the departures of a trio of free throw-heavy seniors. That leaves some big shoes to fill for juniorAhmad Abdullah and junior college transfer Arturs Bremers. At least the defensive boards are in safe hands with big man Bruce Beckford, the top returning rebounder in the MEAC on that side of the floor.

Murray Garvin's South Carolina State team needs to improve on a massive turnover deficit if it is to have any hope of moving up in the standings. In league play, the Bulldogs gave away the ball on 23 percent of their possessions, while forcing turnovers on just 18 percent of opponents' trips. Freshman Tashombe Riley and junior college transfer Gabe McCray are expected to join returning glue guy Devin Joint to make major impacts.

Uncertainty is the word for the Florida A&M Rattlers. New coach Byron Samuels will start from scratch with a completely new roster after six seniors graduated and another seven upperclassmen left through transfers. Samuels is a former Radford head coach and Georgia assistant who also knows the MEAC, having served as Hampton's head coach for two seasons in the mid-90s.

 

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Grading the draft's top prospects

The college basketball season went into full swing this weekend with over 200 games played Friday through Monday.

We all got our first look at the elite prospects in the NBA draft. While the sample size is ridiculously small (one or two games against inferior opponents for the most part), first impressions matter.

I chatted with some NBA scouts over the weekend and here are the first grades for every college player on our Big Board along with a few other notes from several prospects outside our Top 30.


1. Jahlil Okafor, C, Fr., Duke
Grade: A+

Okafor is off to a terrific start. He's averaging 18 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3 APG, 1.5 BPG and shooting an incredible 85 percent from the field in Duke's first two games. But Okafor's success goes beyond his gaudy statistical production for a freshman. His slimmed-down physique has made him faster and more explosive without sacrificing his power. If he keeps playing like this all season, he'll be hard to pass up as the No. 1 pick.


2. Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Fr., Kentucky
Grade: C-

Towns looked absolutely dominant in the exhibition season, but he's been less impressive in his first two games, averaging 5.5 PPG on 31 percent shooting. He has grabbed 6.5 RPG and is averaging 1.5 BPG in just 16 MPG, however this production is far less than what we expected. He has all the tools to be a No. 1 pick, but his production will have to increase pretty dramatically.


5. Kelly Oubre, G/F, Fr., Kansas
Grade: F

Oubre played just four minutes in an unusually tight opening game for Kansas. He didn't take any shots, but did grab two rebounds and hand out an assist. After the game head coach Bill Self said it was a coach's decision on holding Oubre out, and told reporters that Oubre was young. That doesn't sound good. Oubre is an elite-level talent, but it sounds like he might already be in Self's doghouse. He didn't mind playing young players like Andrew Wiggins and Joel Embiid last season.


6. Stanley Johnson, G/F, Fr., Arizona
Grade: B

After a super shaky first game versus Mt. Saint Mary's (8 points on 2-for-8 shooting), Johnson bounced back on Sunday, scoring 17 points and shooting 2-for-3 from 3-point range against CS Northridge. The key for Johnson to stay this high on the Big Board will be his perimeter game. He was 0-for-4 from the perimeter against St. Mary's and is 2-for-7 for the season. Scouts will watch this number closely.


7. Cliff Alexander, PF, Fr., Kansas
Grade: B+

Alexander came off the bench for the Jayhawks and played just 12 minutes. But it was a very effective 12 minutes. He scored nine points, grabbed four rebounds, had a block and infused the second team with some serious energy. With juniors Perry Ellis and Jamari Traylor getting the starts in the frontcourt, Alexander could end up playing this role all season. But as long as he gets minutes and keeps impacting the game this way, it shouldn't affect his draft stock.


8. Kevon Looney, F, Fr., UCLA
Grade: A-

Looney got off to a terrific start on Friday, scoring 20 points and grabbing nine rebounds in an opening win versus Montana State. He also had three assists, a steal and a block and got to the line a crazy 17 times. He followed it up with 17 points, 14 rebounds and three assists versus Coastal Carolina on Sunday. He got to the line another 11 times on Sunday. Looney is a real wild card in the lottery and his hot start bodes well for his placement in our top 10.


10. Myles Turner, F/C, Fr., Texas
Grade: B+

Turner may be one of the more polarizing players in our top 10. He has top 5 talent but many scouts felt he was so raw that it was unlikely he'd be a one-and-done. So far, he's played up to his talent averaging 12.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG and a whopping 4 BPG in 20 MPG. He's also shooting a red-hot 67 percent from the field and showing off a lethal midrange game. If he keeps playing as well as he's done in his first two games, he's going to go even higher than 10.


11. Terry Rozier, PG, So., Louisville
Grade: A-

After a red-hot summer, Rozier picked up right where he left off on Friday against Minnesota. He had 18 points, six rebounds, four assists, four steals and zero turnovers. He was really outstanding on both ends of the court. He followed it up on Monday with 13 points on 5-for-7 shooting against Jacksonville State. However he had only one assist.


13. R.J. Hunter, SG, Jr., Georgia State
Grade: A-

Hunter was the highest riser on our draft board over the summer and he blew the doors off in his opening game, scoring 24 points, dishing out eight assists and shooting 5-for-9 from 3-point range. But take some of that incredible performance with a grain of salt, as he did it in a blowout of Tennessee Temple. He faced much better competition on Monday versus Iowa State and scored 21 points, hit four 3s and dished out another four assists. Iowa State gave him much harder looks, which led to an 8-for-20 shooting performance, but overall, Hunter still looked the part of an NBA lottery pick.


14. Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Jr., Kentucky
Grade: B

Another year, same story for Cauley-Stein. He's been a dominant rebounder and shot-blocker this season, but continues to lack much of an offensive game. He's averaging 9 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 2.5 BPG and 2.5 SPG on 70 percent shooting so far. One nice early sign is an uptick in assists. Cauley-Stein is averaging 2.5 APG in UK's first two games.


15. Justise Winslow, G/F, Fr., Duke
Grade: A

Winslow has been terrific in his first two games at Duke. He's averaging 16.5 PPG, 5 RPG, 1.5 APG and is 3-for-5 from beyond the arc. That last number may be the most critical for Winslow. He obviously has the NBA body and athleticism for the position. He has the motor, as well. If he can consistently hit the 3, he's a top 10 pick. A small handful of scouts thought he was a better NBA prospect than Stanley Johnson. Again, the sample size is very, very small, but so far, Winslow is making his case.


16. Montrezl Harrell, PF, Jr., Louisville
Grade: A

Harrell had arguably the single most impressive game of any of our top prospects this weekend. He scored 30 points and grabbed seven rebounds in a big win versus a legit opponent in Minnesota. But it was how he did it that was so special. Not only was Harrell an athletic terror in the paint, he went 3-for-4 from beyond the arc, as well. Harrell followed it up on Monday with a 15-point, seven-rebound performance against Jackson State. However he missed all three of the 3-pointers he took. If he's added a consistent deep jumper to his game, he's going to move up and move up fast on our Big Board. The question is whether the Minnesota or the Jacksonville State game was more representative of his new jump shot.


17. Bobby Portis, PF, So., Arkansas
Grade: A-

Portis got off to a great start on Sunday for Arkansas, scoring 24 points on 9-for-11 shooting from the field and 3-for-3 from beyond the arc. His measly rebounding numbers (four per game) were the only blemish versus Alabama State.


18. Sam Dekker, F, Jr., Wisconsin
Grade: B

Dekker is averaging 16.5 PPG, 3 RPG and 2 APG in the Badgers' first two outings. The number to watch for him is that 3-point shooting. He's just 2-for-6 in the early going.


19. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, G/F, So., Arizona
Grade: B+

Hollis-Jefferson is off to a strong start, averaging 14.5 PPG, 6 RPG, 2 SPG and shooting 69 percent from the field. He's given the Wildcats great energy and athleticism off the bench early. However, he's yet to attempt a 3-point shot in Arizona's first two games.


20. Justin Jackson, G/F, Fr., North Carolina
Grade: B-

Jackson got off to a solid start in North Carolina's first two games, averaging 11 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 3 APG and 1 BPG. However, he's 0-for-3 from beyond the arc early. He looks pretty comfortable out there playing with his more senior teammates, and the fact he's in the starting lineup should bode well for his production this season.


21. D'Angelo Russell, SG, Fr., Ohio State
Grade: A-

The Buckeyes don't have a lot of great scoring options and that creates a terrific opportunity for Russell. He took full advantage of it on Friday, leading Ohio State in scoring with 16 points. He also had six assists, four rebounds and three steals and turned the ball over only once. Those six assists will especially stand out to scouts. A number of them believe Russell could play point guard in the NBA someday. If he can prove that this season at Ohio State, he'll move up another 10 spots on our Board.


22. Wayne Selden, G/F, So., Kansas
Grade: C-

It was a rocky opening night for Selden. He played 32 minutes, but scored just 10 points on 2-for-8 shooting from the field. He was 0-for-3 from beyond the arc. Last season Selden had legit injury issues that kept him from dominating the way scouts thought he could. He's healthy now and his stock will start to plummet quickly if he doesn't improve.


24. Caris LeVert, G/F, Jr., Michigan
Grade: B-

LeVert got off to a ridiculously great start on Saturday, just missing a triple-double in Michigan's first game versus Hillsdale. He had 20 points, eight rebounds, nine assists and shot 4-for-6 from beyond the arc. His second game was much less impressive. He shot just 2-for-11 from the field, though he did add six rebounds and six assists. LeVert may have been the most improved player in the country last season. If that learning curve is continuing and if he can handle being "the man" in Ann Arbor this season, he'll steadily climb this board.


25. Tyus Jones, PG, Fr., Duke
Grade: B+

Jones is the third highest-rated point guard on our Big Board and he's made a strong case so far that he might need to be a few spots higher. He's averaging 10.5 PPG and 6 APG in Duke's first two games and has committed only three turnovers in that span. That 4-1 assist-to-turnover ratio is exactly what we expect from Jones. He's the "purest" point guard on our Big Board.

 

[Skooby]

26. Trey Lyles, F, Fr., Kentucky
Grade: A-

Lyles has been terrific early for Kentucky, averaging 13 PPG and shooting 67 percent from the field. He's clearly one of the most skilled freshmen in the country. The questions on Lyles center on his lack of elite athleticism. Still, if he's going to play this well all season, he may be a lottery pick.


27. Ron Baker, G, Jr., Wichita State
Grade: B-

Baker had 16 points, four rebounds and one assist in the opener for the Shockers. However he missed all three of the 3-point shots he took and if he's going to continue to get some looks as a point guard in the NBA, he's going to have to average more than one assist per game.


30. Jarell Martin, F, So., LSU
Grade: B+

Martin opened up the season with 21 points and 11 rebounds in LSU's opener versus Gardner-Webb. However, he was only 1-for-7 from 3 and committed five turnovers.


Others to watch

• The best freshman performance of the weekend went to UNLV's Rashad Vaughn. Vaughn had 26 points and seven rebounds in a win for UNLV. He was less effective against Sam Houston, scoring 18 points, but shooting 7-for-19 from the field. Vaughn is one of the best scorers in the country and clearly he's going to have a green light for the Running Rebels this season. But to really make a push for the lottery, he's going to have to shoot better than 4-for-13 from 3-point range.

• A number of scouts are intrigued by Gonzaga freshman Domantas Sabonis. He's the son of the legendary Arvydas Sabonis and got off to a great start on Friday, scoring 14 points and grabbing eight rebounds in just 20 minutes off the bench. He followed it up with 13 points and nine rebounds versus SMU on Monday.

• There's a dearth of legit NBA point guard prospects in this year's draft. One guy who could end up making some noise in the first round is NC State sophomore Anthony Barber. Barber has 25 points, six rebounds, six assists, two steals and went 3-for-5 from 3-point range in an opening-day win versus Jackson State. He followed it up with 13 points, seven rebounds and six assists versus Hofstra on Monday. He's got the size and quickness to play the position in the pros. If he can have a big season, he's a legit first-round prospect.
  
  
  • Three other sophomores to keep an eye on are UConn big man Amida Brimah, Vanderbilt's Damian Jones and North Carolina center Kennedy Meeks. This is a strong draft for centers already, but both players are very intriguing. Brimah had 12 points, five rebounds and five blocks versus Bryant on Friday. Jones had 24 points and 12 rebounds and four blocks in 22 minutes in Vandy's opener. Meeks is averaging 15.5 PPG, 10.5 RPG on 59 percent shooting in North Carolina's first two wins, including a 21-point, 12-rebound performance against Robert Morris.
  
  • Several other players in our Top 100 who deserve a shout-out: Oregon's Joseph Young (32 points, 8 assists, 6-for-8 from 3); Oklahoma's Buddy Hield (25 points, 7-for-7 from 3); UCLA's Norman Powell (25 points); Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky (16 points, 11 rebounds, four assists versus NKU and 15 points, 10 rebounds, four assists versus Chattanooga); LSU's Jordan Mickey (21 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists); Iowa State's Georges Niang (30 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists); Kentucky's Dakari Johnson (10 points and 13 rebounds in 18 minutes); UNC's Brice Johnson(17.5 PPG, 8 RPG on 67 percent shooting); Cal's Jabari Bird (12 points, 9 assists); and Washington's Nigel Williams-Goss (10 points, 11 rebounds, 7 assists).
  

 

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@Skooby Would you be able to post this one?

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thanks,

 

[Skooby]

@Skooby Would you be able to post this one?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11929653/nba-toronto-raptors-win-eastern-conference

thanks,

How real are the Raptors? By Bradford Doolittle ESPN Insider

Last week, Kevin Pelton looked at early front-runners in the West through the prism of point differential. Today we're going to do the same thing for the East, where the top of the standings look nothing like what we thought they would. OK, that's not exactly true. We thought there would be a runaway juggernaut in the East, and there is. We were just wrong about the team.

To reiterate what Pelton wrote: At this early juncture of the season, a team's point differential, when evaluated in the context of schedule factors, is a better indicator than won-loss record of what a team will do going forward. Wins and losses generate the buzz. Margin of victory generates the wisdom.

The teams I obliquely referred to in the first paragraph hooked up in a fairly remarkable game Saturday. The Toronto Raptors, the surprise early leader in the East, visited the Cleveland Cavaliers, who we pegged as heavy favorites in the conference just before the season. If you've been fixating on the trials and tribulations of LeBron & Co., you might have missed the great storm blowing north of the border. The Raptors are emerging as the lion of the East, with everyone else settling as kittens.


Strength of schedule?

The Raptors' plus-12.2 point differential is the best in the NBA. At 11-2, Toronto is on pace to win 69 games. The projected win total based on point differential is also 69. Nevertheless, while the Raptors' point differential is more than strong enough to support its East-leading record, it's not for real. It can't be, and it's not going out on a limb to state that. Even the most pie-eyed Raptors fan understands his team isn't going to win 69 games. Our fall forecast for 47 wins looks lean at this point, but even if we redid it this morning based on the results to date, Toronto's win projection probably wouldn't climb too far into the 50s.

Toronto's schedule has in part paved the way for the blazing start. The Raptors capped a seven-game homestand by rolling to a 52-point lead in point differential during a rout of Milwaukee on Friday. They've played nine of their first 13 at the Air Canada Centre, winning eight. Among those home wins, Toronto can count the Thunder, 76ers, Magic, Jazz and Bucks among its victims. Overall, based on the quality of the offenses and defenses the Raptors have faced, only the Knicks have enjoyed an easier schedule in the NBA. (Yes, New York fans, you read that right.)

All that being true, you simply can't dismiss the Raptors' performance because the sheer degree of their dominance won't let you. Consider this: In Basketball-Reference.com's schedule-adjusted standings, Toronto's margin of victory (MOV) is scaled back to plus-10.4. Which of course is still awesome. So awesome, in fact, that the Raptors' adjusted MOV is nine points better than second-place Washington in the East. Lions and kittens, people.
How real are the Raptors?

Watching Toronto go on a 24-2 second-half run in its win at Cleveland on Saturday was pretty convincing. The addition of explosive bench scorer Lou Williams has shored up a key roster shortcoming and helped give the Raptors a top-10 bench. On the downside, every rotation player on the roster has a winning percentage significantly exceeding his preseason projection, with two exceptions: Greivis Vasquez and Tyler Hansbrough. Some of the overachievers -- such as Jonas Valanciunas, Patrick Patterson and Terrence Ross -- are young players who might simply be getting better faster than we thought. But as a roster, Toronto is due to regress as the schedule toughens.
And then there's this cautionary tale: Last season's Indiana Pacers. The moral of that story is that championships are not won in November. Nevertheless, the chasm between Toronto and everyone else in the Eastern Conference can't be ignored.

As for the kittens, the differentials, adjusted and otherwise, tell a yawn-inducing story of utter mediocrity. Washington's plus-3.4 margin of victory translates to about 48 wins over a full season. After accounting for the Wizards' 25th-ranked schedule, that MOV gets knocked down to plus-1.4. And that's the second-best mark in the East. The Cavaliers have faced the league's sixth-toughest schedule, and the fifth-most difficult set of opposing offenses. So Cleveland owns the third-ranked adjusted MOV (plus-0.6). I imagine that's small consolation to a team that is reeling at the moment.
In the fourth spot, the injury-riddled Bulls have defensive issues. Not only is Chicago's No. 11 ranking in defensive efficiency mind-boggling for a Tom Thibodeau club, but just nine teams have faced a weaker set of offenses. The good news is that Chicago's 8-5 record has been achieved while playing just five of 13 at home. The disparity will grow this week as the Bulls continue their annual November pilgrimage forced upon them by the literal circus that invades the United Center. In December, Bulls fans can look forward to the home-road balance working itself out, and they also hope the roster will be healthier by that time.

The only East team other than Toronto, Washington and Chicago with a positive average point differential is Miami, and the Heat drop below break-even when the schedule is accounted for. In fact, of the remaining teams, all but Charlotte and Philadelphia have a worse MOV once the schedule is factored in, and the respective adjusted differentials of those teams remains in the red. It's an ugly portrait. Atlanta has the No. 10 offense, but it's achieved that rating against the worst set of defenses any team has played. The Bucks' terrific start on defense has come at the expense of the worst collective set of offenses. You could go on and on.

News and notes

• There were so many factoids left over from the bench rating system I set up in the previously linked piece that I can, and likely will, drop these tidbits on you for the rest of the season. For example, last season's Spurs owned the best single-season team bench WARP of the 10-year period of the study, at plus-17.2. The top three seasons are all owned by the Spurs (and five of the top 12). This season, however, San Antonio's bench winning percentage (the per-possession counterpart to WARP) is .426, well below any of the nine previous seasons.

Also, I wrote about Portland's bench improving to mediocrity in the early going this year. Mediocre is indeed an improvement: The Trail Blazers' minus-8.4 bench WARP in 2012-13 was the worst in the database by nearly two wins.

• OK, here's more bench trivia. Among active players who have played at least 2,000 minutes as both a starter and a reserve over the last 10 years, two players are neck and neck for the biggest boost in winning percentage as a bench player: Thaddeus Young (8.4 percent boost) and O.J. Mayo (8.3). At the other end of the spectrum, J.J. Hickson loses 13.6 percent and Kyle Lowry loses 11.4 percent. Fortunately for Lowry, it's unlikely he's going to be coming off the bench anytime soon.

• Houston's 95-92 win over Dallas on Saturday was one of the wildest sub-100-point games you'll ever see. Houston took 3-point shots on 46 of its 82 field goal attempts. According to the official box score, the Rockets also took 29 shots in the paint, leaving just seven attempts from midrange. That's extremely even for the Rockets. According to Basketball-Reference.com, since 1985-86, only the Knicks have tried more 3s while scoring under 100, taking 47 on Dec. 17, 2009, in a 98-89 loss to the Bulls. Meanwhile, Dallas launched 35 of its 88 shots from behind the arc Saturday. Where have you gone, Alex English?

 

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Eight prospects on the rise

LAHAINA, Hawaii -- NBA scouts are out in full force this Thanksgiving week, taking in terrific college basketball tournament action in Maui, the Bahamas, New York, Orlando and Los Angeles, just to name a few.

I'm at the Maui Invitational with a handful of NBA scouts, watching Arizona, San Diego State, BYU, Kansas State, Pittsburgh, Purdue and Missouri. And I've been on the phone with a number of NBA scouts at several other key holiday tournaments.

Again, it's early. Very early. The sample size for most of these players is still somewhere between three and five games. There is still plenty of time, especially for the freshmen, to get better. But like I said last week, first impressions matter.

We broke down the stock of Kentucky, Kansas, Duke and Michigan State players last Wednesday. Here's a look at eight players who are helping their draft stock right now.

Looney Kevon Looney, F, UCLA
We've had Looney in our top 10 since the summer. His play in the first four UCLA games suggests he'll be staying there all year. The freshman is averaging 14.8 points, 12 rebounds, 1.5 blocks and 1.3 steals per game. Those rebounding numbers are especially attractive for Looney. But it's just the beginning. He can also handle the ball and stretch the floor. He's not being asked to do that on a regular basis for UCLA, but scouts know he's one of the most versatile players in the draft. He needs to add more toughness to his game, however. If he can keep up the momentum, I think he could be a top-five pick.

Winslow Justise Winslow, F, Duke
I mentioned Winslow in my Stock Watch last week. But after a couple more performances by Winslow since then, he's worth mentioning again. The freshman is averaging 15.4 PPG and 5.8 RPG. Those numbers aren't particularly gaudy, but watch Winslow up close and you see that he's the heart and soul of this Blue Devils team, much like Michael Kidd-Gilchrist was for Kentucky a few years ago. Winslow has all of those similar intangibles and scouts are almost uniformly in love. If he keeps playing like this all year, he's got a chance to be a top-five pick. The key number for him is to keep shooting around 39 percent from 3-point range. If Winslow can be even a marginal threat from beyond the arc, he could be a special pro.

Turner Myles Turner, F/C, Texas
Turner didn't exactly turn heads in New York last weekend. He scored a total of 10 points on 4-for-11 shooting in wins versus Iowa and Cal. However, scouts still walked away impressed with his defense and overall game. It should be noted that in Texas' other outings, he's been terrific. He scored 15 points against North Dakota State, blocked six shots versus Alcorn State and then went off for 25 points and 10 rebounds (on 11-for-12 shooting) on Tuesday against St. Francis (Pa.). Turner went 3-for-3 from beyond the arc in that game. He's the rare big who both thrives in the paint defensively and can hurt you from the perimeter offensively. He's going to be up and down all year and scouts worry a bit about the way he runs, but there is a ton of talent oozing from Turner and he's been more productive early than scouts thought he'd be.

McCullough Chris McCullough, F, Syracuse
No one has seen his stock rise more in the first two weeks of the season than McCullough. He is averaging 15.6 PPG, 7.6 RPG and 2.6 BPG in his first five games for Syracuse, including two very strong games against Cal (12 points, 7 rebounds, 5 blocks) and Iowa (20 points, 9 rebounds, 3 blocks). Those are impressive numbers for a freshman. But what intrigues scouts is what's behind the numbers. McCullough has a 7-foot-3 wingspan, is an explosive leaper and is the rare big who can protect the rim on defense and stretch the floor on offense. He needs to add a lot of strength, but virtually every scout I spoke to who saw him play last week in New York came away feeling he'd be a lottery pick.

Kaminsky Frank Kaminsky, C, Wisconsin
Kaminsky played his way into the discussion as a first-round pick in the NCAA tournament. But a lackluster summer caused scouts to question whether he was really NBA material. So far this season, Kaminsky has looked like the best player in college basketball. He has a crazy 48.79 PER through his first four games at Wisconsin, averaging 19.3 PPG, 10.3 RPG and 2.8 BPG and shooting 44 percent from beyond the arc. The best part about Kaminsky is that he knows exactly what he is. All but one of his shots have been taken at the rim or from three-point range. The question will be just how high can he go. We have him planted firmly in the mid-first round, but if he plays at this level all year, he could end up in the lottery.

Powell Norman Powell, G, UCLA
Powell was a great athlete and defender his first three years at UCLA, but he surprised a number of scouts this summer with a much more aggressive offensive game and even a 3-point shot. The biggest question coming into the season was whether Powell was the guy we'd seen in his first three years at UCLA or the one scouts saw in the summer. So far, he's looked like the summer Powell. Through four games he's averaging 21.3 PPG and shooting an impressive 52 percent from 3. He's a little undersized for his position, but his elite athleticism makes up for a lot of it. He could be a Tony Allen-type pro if he can maintain consistency all year.

Hield Buddy Hield, SG, Oklahoma
Hield was another summer standout who appears to be living up to the hype. Through his first three games he's on a tear, averaging 20.7 PPG and shooting 55 percent from 3. While scouts feel he needs to get to the line more, his shooting numbers are very encouraging.

Kennedy Meeks, F/C, North Carolina

Meeks
Of all the guys on this list, Meeks has the chance to be in for the most dramatic rise on our Big Board. He's averaging 16.7 PPG and 11 RPG while shooting 63 percent from the field for North Carolina. He's got the size and basketball IQ to be a dominant low-post player. Meeks doesn't have the athleticism to be a lottery pick, but if he can keep this up all year, he'll start getting looks in the first round.

Others to watch
• Emmanuel Mudiay would've topped this list a week ago. Through his first nine games in China, he's averaging 18.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG and 6.3 APG and shooting 49 percent from field. However, an ankle injury suffered late last week has him out a minimum of two weeks. The long-term prognosis is good, a source close to Mudiay told me. It isn't a serious injury. But his people are going to play it safe.

His stock is too high right now. Most scouts I've spoken with have him either No. 2 or No. 3 on their boards. Mudiay does have things to work on. After a hot shooting start, he's down to shooting 32 percent from 3 and he's averaging 3.1 turnovers per game. But overall, he's impressed everyone. A number of scouts are heading over to China in a couple of weeks to get an up-close look. We should know even more then.

• Arizona is the main attraction here in Maui. There are four players on the Wildcats who are potential first-round prospects. How have they fared?

Freshman Stanley Johnson has been ranked in the top 10 all summer thanks to a stellar high school career and a rep as one of the few two-way players in the draft. Blessed with a body reminiscent of a young Ron Artest, he can out-physical just about any other wing in college basketball. He's been solid so far, averaging 12.6 PPG and 5.6 RPG and he's thrown down some pretty incredible dunks. He's also had two solid games here in Maui against Missouri and Kansas State. But his lack of a jump shot (he's 4-for-14 from 3 this year) and only so-so handle puts his one-and-done status in doubt. Said one GM in Maui: "He's clearly got the physical tools to be a great NBA player, but his game has not caught up with those tools. There's a long ways to go from a skills development standpoint. Someone will take him in the lottery if he declares, but he's got a lot of work to do."

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson was mentioned as a possible late lottery to mid-first round pick last year before deciding to return for his sophomore season. He's coming off the bench for Arizona this year, but his impact has been felt all over the court, especially on the defensive end. Against Kansas State on Tuesday, Hollis-Jefferson completely locked down Marcus Foster in the second half. He's a terrific athlete and versatile. The only issue, and it's a major one, is the lack of a credible jump shot. He's shooting a crazy 94 percent at the rim this year but only 34 percent from everywhere else on the floor. He does enough to get drafted as a defensive stopper, but unless that jumper starts falling it will be tough for him to crack the lottery.

Big man Kaleb Tarczewski has been on the radar since his freshman year. He's got NBA size and is a surprisingly explosive athlete. He just hasn't shown the toughness, rebounding and offensive skill to get anyone to bite on him in the first round. He played one of the best games of his career Tuesday, scoring a career-high 18 points and showing a variety of impressive moves around the basket. However, he grabbed just three rebounds and his toughness in the game varied. Could he be another Miles Plumlee type who gets better once he's in the pro game? "More like Eric Montross," one scout deadpanned. I wouldn't go that far. The talent is clearly there. If he can put together more games like he did on Tuesday, he'll have plenty of suitors in the first round.

Brandon Ashley is the other Arizona player who has gotten looks as a potential first-rounder in the past. An injury wiped out those hopes last year, but Ashley is back and having a solid start for Arizona. He's athletic and can stretch the floor. However, he really appears to be a tweener. He has not been rebounding the ball and while he can shoot it with range, he's 0-for-4 from beyond the arc this year.

• Kansas State's Marcus Foster has also put on a show here in Maui. He's averaging 23.5 PPG in his first two games here while shooting 11-for-17 from beyond the arc. He's tough, athletic and a fearless scorer who can get to the rim and launch it from deep. The problem for Foster is that he doesn't resemble a point guard at all. In five games, he's had a total of eight assists and didn't get any against Arizona. If he were three or four inches taller, that wouldn't be an issue, but at 6-foot-2, it is. On Wednesday, he was lighting up Arizona before the taller and longer Hollis-Jefferson started guarding him. Of the 23 points he scored, just three were against Hollis-Jefferson, who's the prototypical size for a wing. He'll try to convince scouts he's the next Eddie House, and that might be enough to get someone to bite, but his lack of size lowers his value.

• NBA scouts are always out there looking for shooters, and after staying on the fringe of the NBA radar screen for two years, Butler's Kellen Dunham has broken through. Dunham is averaging 19 PPG and shooting a crazy 67 percent from beyond the arc. He doesn't bring a lot else to the table outside of his shooting, but he's good enough that he'll be heavily in the mix for a spot in the draft this year if he can keep shooting from deep with that consistency.

 

[STAN JONES]

Discountmags got espn magazine subscriptions(insider included) for $3.90 per year

I just copped 2 years for $7.78

 

[FakeNews]

@Skooby

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/stor...ture-san-francisco-49ers-suddenly-unclear-nfl

 

[Skooby]

@Skooby

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/stor...ture-san-francisco-49ers-suddenly-unclear-nfl

The debate on Kaepernick's future

The sign San Francisco 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh posted near the team's locker room upon his hiring in 2011 applies nearly four years later.

"You are getting better or you are getting worse," the sign reads. "You never stay the same."

After getting much better right away under Harbaugh, the 49ers have gotten much worse lately. So has their franchise quarterback. Colin Kaepernick, six months removed from signing a contract extension, ranks 23rd in Total QBR this season, right behind Mark Sanchez, Ryan Fitzpatrick andMike Glennon. The previous two seasons, Kaepernick was third behind Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers.

Kaepernick, 27, is approaching a career crossroads as the organization mulls a likely coaching change. How the 49ers proceed from here will influence whether Kaepernick again becomes a productive force or continues on his current downward trajectory, one that could turn him into anotherRobert Griffin III -- adrift after a promising start to his career.

Multiple factors complicate the analysis of Kaepernick. Some of the 49ers' most valuable players have missed much of the season or declined in production. Harbaugh's unsettled future and relationship with the front office has been a recurring storyline. The past three seasons, each capped with excruciating disappointment in NFC title games or the Super Bowl, have clearly taken a toll.

Theories outnumber hard facts, but here are five thoughts on Kaepernick's situation and the chances that he'll remain in a 49ers uniform in the future:


1. Moving on from Kaepernick quickly is not a likely option.

Kaepernick's contract does provide the team chances to reassess after each season, but doing so this early in the deal appears impractical. Blaine Gabbert is the 49ers' backup, so there is not a viable alternative currently on the roster. Releasing Kaepernick would force the team to account for $9.86 million in charges all at once or spread across two seasons. The way things stand, Kaepernick's deal will count $15.265 million against the 2015 cap unless the 49ers improbably reach the Super Bowl, a development that would trigger escalators. Below are Kaepernick's declining statistics from his two-plus seasons as a starter for San Francisco.

2012-14 Colin Kaepernick as Starter by Season
Season 2012 2013 2014
W-L 7-3 14-5 7-6
Win pct. .700 .737 .538
Comp. 169 288 248
Att. 272 498 409
Comp. Pct. 62.1 57.8 60.6
Pass yards/game 240.6 198.6 223.9
Yards/att. 8.9 7.6 7.1
TD-INT 14-5 24-11 16-10
Passer rating 100.2 88.7 85.1
Sacked 16 45 43
Sack rate 5.1% 7.5% 8.8%
Rushes/game 6.7 6.2 6.2
Yards/rush 7.5 6.5 4.7
Rush TD 5 5 0
Total QBR 78.0 70.4 52.2


2. Kyle Shanahan is the type of coach/coordinator the team could consider strongly.

League insiders familiar with the situation in San Francisco expect the 49ers to replace Harbaugh and the offensive staff, at a minimum. The feeling is that embracing Kaepernick as a dual-threat quarterback will be a prerequisite for the team's next offensive coaches.

Some think San Francisco will pursue a head coach and/or coordinator such as Cleveland Browns offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan, who worked with Griffin in Washington and could become a head-coaching candidate after his work with the Browns this season. Scott Frost, the offensive coordinator at Oregon, also fits the profile of a coach who would likely embrace working with Kaepernick instead of pushing for a more traditional pocket quarterback. Adam Gase was on the Denver Broncos' staff when the team adapted its offense for Tim Tebow, although Gase was not the coordinator at that time.



3. The Pistol formation could make a resurgence under a new staff.



Kaepernick has committed turnovers at critical times, including three in the fourth quarter of the NFC Championship Game at Seattle last season, two in the fourth quarter of a crushing home defeat to Chicago this season, and five total over the past three games. He previously flourished in the offense Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman put into place, but that offense has regressed in production and changed some in its approach.



Offense in decline
49ers offense on first and second down, when tied or leading, in first three quarters of games

Season 2012 2013 2014
Snaps 396 462 258
Dropback rate 49.5% 48.3% 52.7%
Yds/play 6.52 5.24 4.84
Yds/att 9.07 7.54 6.86
Yds/rush 5.3 4.15 3.93
Off. EPA 60.9 25.6 -5.52
Rush rate 50.5% 51.7% 47.3%
Passer rating 109.8 94.4 84.3
Sacked 15 15 10
Total QBR 83.8 68.7 42


Kaepernick is averaging 3.8 action plays per game from the Pistol formation, down from 6.5 per game last season. The 49ers are also averaging 30.9 snaps per game with three or more wide receivers. The figure was below 13 per game in each of the previous two seasons. When teams use additional wide receivers, defenses counter with additional defensive backs, expanding their abilities to employ complex coverage schemes. Kaepernick, like other young quarterbacks from college-style offenses, is not considered a skilled reader of these defenses by insiders I've spoken with throughout the league.

What's interesting to note, as seen in the table at right, is that while the offense is passing slightly more than in the past two seasons during times of the game that aren't obvious passing or obvious running situations -- defined by me here as first- or second-down plays when tied or leading, in the first three quarters of games -- the recurring narrative that the Niners have abandoned the running game this season appears to be false. The biggest change to note here is simply an overall decline in production.

Griffin's situation in Washington can be instructive for the 49ers. The Redskins' efforts to mold Griffin into primarily a pocket passer under new coach Jay Gruden have bombed. The attempt was arguably necessary to shield Griffin from the high-impact collisions he has absorbed as a runner, but Kaepernick is sturdier physically. He has not suffered the injuries that have reduced Griffin athletically. But if the 49ers have subtly tried to make Kaepernick into more of a passer this season, is there enough evidence to say that is not what is best for him and for the offense overall? If the 49ers' next coach embraces Kaepernick's dual-threat nature, we could see those reps from the Pistol formation increase again.



4. The next coach and offensive staff will be more positive and uplifting.

One critic of Harbaugh's approach said he thinks the 49ers would benefit across the board from a more positive, upbeat coaching philosophy after three draining seasons under the hard-charging Harbaugh. This insider also thinks the 49ers' offense is overly complex, particularly in the running game, and that the mental grind has worn on some players.

There was also some thought that 49ers' coaches have marginalized tight end Vernon Davis after his training camp holdout, a potential factor in Davis' diminished performance. In the past, Kaepernick had been much more productive when Davis was on the field; the reverse has been true this season. The next coach would have to remedy these situations.



5. Questions raised regarding Kaepernick are not going away.

Before the season, when I asked 26 coaches and evaluators to place each starting quarterback into one of five tiers, Kaepernick finished near the bottom of the second tier at No. 14, just ahead of Nick Foles.

Supporters pointed to multiple ways Kaepernick stresses defenses. Detractors questioned the quarterback's ability to throw anything other than a fastball. They questioned Kaepernick's ability to decipher defenses from inside the pocket; players, coaches and evaluators see this skill as critical for consistency over time.

No one denied the 49ers' ability to win with Kaepernick, but now that he is a highly paid quarterback and the roster is evolving around him, where does he fit in the equation? That could be a question for the next coach to answer.





Notes


Packers versus Seattle: Once the Monday night game concluded in Green Bay, I asked Atlanta Falcons safety Dwight Lowery and running back Steven Jackson to handicap a potential playoff matchup between the Packers and Seattle Seahawks. Jackson said whichever team had home-field advantage would prevail. Lowery said Seattle's defense is the best in the NFL and "it would definitely be able to keep them in the game." He also said QB Russell Wilson's ability to improvise would be an equalizer.

"It would be a great battle," Lowery said.

A veteran defensive coach, speaking before the Packers held on for a 43-37 victory over Atlanta, said he would take the Seahawks right now.

"The Packers' defense has never done anything when it matters," this coach said. "Right now, Seattle beats them again. Seattle has come all the way back from its injuries and not being sure of team chemistry, and they are rolling. They score enough. Their defense can throw a 7 or 14 or 3 or zero at any time. Green Bay is impressive. They beat down Philly's offense, too. But I am not as impressed with Philly's offense."

That would be Mr. Jones to you: Julio Jones' 259 yards receiving against Green Bay on Monday night set a Falcons franchise record. This was a receiver from a dome team playing in a December game at Lambeau Field, although conditions were about as favorable as they realistically could have been this time of year. A hip injury sent Jones into treatment mode after the game, so he was not available for interviews, but Lowery offered some insights.

"He has a great understanding of what is going on and how teams are trying to cover him," Lowery said of Jones. "He is big, fast, physical. He knows how to use his body. He runs like a small, quick guy and he has the ability to get open no matter what the coverage dictates. He works very f---ing hard in practice. His work ethic is second to none."

 

[Dr. Narcisse]

Need the list brehs

 

[Skooby]

Need the list brehs

I don't see nothing. I'm just getting a blank thumbnail pic in your post.

 

[Dominique Wilkins]

Need the list brehs

1. Anthony Davis | Age: 21 | Pelicans
Projected 3-year WARP: 44.0

Kevin Pelton: Davis' 33.2 PER not only leads the league, but it would be the best ever, per Basketball-Reference.com. Wilt Chamberlain had an estimated 31.8 PER in 1962-63 and Michael Jordan (31.7) has the best score since player turnovers have been tracked.

David Thorpe: Simply put, he's currently the best player on Earth and is still getting better. He is a huge impact guy in three phases of the game, offense, defense and the boards. All that is left is to grow into a great leader.

Amin Elhassan: Let's not waste too much ink on this one. He'll be the best player of any age pretty soon.

2. DeMarcus Cousins | Age: 24 | Kings
Projected 3-year WARP: 28.3

Pelton: Long an offensive force, Cousins has made strides defensively. With him on the floor, the Kings are allowing a 98.3 defensive rating, per NBA.com/Stats -- which would rank fourth in the NBA.

Thorpe: Cousins dominates inside with the kind of impact Shaq made, bullying opposing centers as he imposes his will on both ends of the court. He can still improve by making a better effort on defense every possession.

Elhassan: I've reluctantly been pulled onto the Cousins bandwagon. I never doubted his talent, it was just that I always had questions about his approach. But so far this season he seems to have turned that corner. Might be the most dominant inside force in the NBA.

3. John Wall | Age: 24 | Wizards
Projected 3-year WARP: 25.6

Pelton: Wall ranks fourth in assist rate but there's still room for improvement as a scorer. He's shooting just 34.4 percent from beyond 15 feet, per Basketball-Reference.com, and hoisting five midrange jumpers a game.

Thorpe: Wall is the best of the elite point guards at passing, and he is now managing the game while looking to be the difference-maker as an assertive scorer. If he ever develops a 3-point shot he could be the league's best guard.

Elhassan: Wall's biggest flaw, perimeter shooting, has improved tremendously, and his game has flourished as a result. His discovery of change of pace also has done wonders for him, but the reason he's this high is because he's the best defender of all the elite point guards.

4. Kyrie Irving | Age: 22 | Cavaliers
Projected 3-year WARP: 24.0

Pelton: Players similar to Irving continued to develop their passing beyond their age 24 season, improving their assist rate by 4.1 percent the following season. That's good news for LeBron James and Kevin Love, Irving's new Cleveland teammates.

Thorpe: Maybe the most skilled player in basketball, along with Stephen Curry. Great poise and learning to be an aggressive defender, which helps him make up for a slight lack of athleticism compared to the other elite guards.

Elhassan: With every passing day, Irving becomes more comfortable within the Cavs' new offense, and his incredible playmaking and scoring shines brighter. His defense still lags far behind his offense, but it's getting better.

5. Paul George | Age: 24 | Pacers
Projected 3-year WARP: 26.9

Pelton: George had boosted his value each season, from 1.6 WARP as a rookie to 8.2 in 2011-12, 11.2 in 2012-13 and 13.8 in 2013-14. His fractured fibula/tibia costs him the chance to climb further up this season.

Thorpe: Few wings can be both the best offensive and best defensive player on their team, which is what George was before his injury. It might take a full season for him to get back to that level of impact, but he still projects to be that guy for many years.

Elhassan: Just because he's hurt doesn't mean he's gone! George is still one of the top-three wing defenders in the game, and while not a superlative offensive talent, he's a skilled creator out of the pick-and-roll as well as a good shooter.

6. Andre Drummond | Age: 21 | Pistons
Projected 3-year WARP: 26.3

Pelton: Drummond's slow start to 2014-15 doesn't really affect his long-term outlook. Similar players improved their win-percentage rating (the per-minute version of WARP, akin to PER) by 11.0 percent at the same age.

Thorpe: Drummond started the season poorly but his overall talent is too obvious to ignore, and he is showing recent signs of growth. Under his new coach we can expect him to make big strides as the season unfolds and he grows into one of the top big men in basketball.

Elhassan: Drummond has had a disappointing 2014-15, but he's just 21 and has the most imposing physical profile of any player on this list. Detroit needs to pair him with a pick-and-roll playmaker and shooters in order to fulfill his potential.

7. Damian Lillard | Age: 24 | Trail Blazers
Projected 3-year WARP: 26.1

Pelton: Players similar to Lillard have tended to peak relatively early. Of course, we said the same during Lillard's rookie season, and he's found plenty of room for improvement since, jumping into the league's top 10 in both WARP and win shares.

Thorpe: Lillard is fast becoming a dominant all-around impact player as a primary ball handler, one of only a few in the league. He can change the outcome of a game with his perimeter shooting or by expertly managing the game while feeding teammates.

Elhassan: Dynamic scorer and playmaker who has stepped into a leadership role almost seamlessly. His defense leaves something to be desired, as does his finishing, but Lillard is highly productive and a scouting report nightmare.

8. Kawhi Leonard | Age: 23 | Spurs
Projected 3-year WARP: 27.1

Pelton: Leonard's impressive WARP projection ranks third on this list. He's rated well by ESPN's real plus-minus because of his defense. So far this season he's second among small forwards behind LeBron James.

Thorpe: Leonard might be the best example of nurture versus nature in the NBA today, as he proved in June winning the Finals MVP. He is someone who can significantly help every team but is unlikely to ever be a team's best player.

Elhassan: I love Kawhi. I love his defense, versatility and the fact he's both quick and strong. I love his efficiency, as there's no wasted dribbles or motion. I love his shot selection. But I just can't see him as the centerpiece to a team -- he'll always be a complementary piece to me.

9. Giannis Antetokounmpo | Age: 20 | Bucks
Projected 3-year WARP: 10.5

Pelton: Having just turned 20, Antetokounmpo remains the fourth-youngest player on this list (younger than two of the 2014 rookies). He's taken a solid step forward this season.

Thorpe: No rookie faced a bigger transition into the NBA than Giannis, but in Year 2 it's obvious he is figuring the game out as he develops his overall game. He has the potential to be very similar to Paul George in terms of overall impact on each end of the court.

Elhassan: He's got a chance to be a truly position-less player who can play every position on both sides of the ball. It's scary to realize he's already this good when half the time he has no idea what's going on.

10. Klay Thompson | Age: 24 | Warriors
Projected 3-year WARP: 17.6

Pelton: With his scoring efficiency finally matching his obvious talent, Thompson has emerged as the league's second-best shooting guard according to RPM, within striking distance of Houston Rockets guard James Harden.

Thorpe: Likely the best pure shooter among all the shooting guards in the game, and a good defender as well. He has become better at creating driving angles off the dribble, earning him more free throws, which is a big step forward.

Elhassan: The best shooter on this list has seen his game grow and flourish off the strength of being put in situations that speak to his talents. Also one of the best wing defenders in the league.

11. Derrick Favors | Age: 23 | Jazz
Projected 3-year WARP: 16.8

Pelton: Improved floor spacing in Quin Snyder's offense has helped Favors set career highs in both usage (22.2 percent of the Jazz's possessions) and true shooting percentage (.593).

Thorpe: Favors has made a jump as a scorer, which moves him up on this list with another year to go. Right now he is a good defender and can be a good team's second-best scorer, with room to grow.

Elhassan: His progression has not happened as quickly as I anticipated, but he's still a high-level rebounder and shot-blocker who is making strides on the offensive end.

12. Gordon Hayward | Age: 24 | Jazz
Projected 3-year WARP: 17.3

Pelton: Hayward will be 25 in March, and similar players were about at their peak by that age. It's OK if Hayward continues performing like he has this season, as he ranks in the league's top 30 in both RPM and WARP.

Thorpe: He's enjoying a career year, as players entering their prime years should be. Can help an offense as both a scorer and passer while bringing great energy to the game, which is not a small thing.

Elhassan: Nice all-round talent who can dribble, pass and shoot, but I wonder whether Hayward can take the next step toward greatness. If he can't, the Jazz will need to add someone who can lead them there.

13. Bradley Beal | Age: 21 | Wizards
Projected 3-year WARP: 11.2

Pelton: A positive sign since Beal's return from a broken bone in his wrist: He's cut long 2-point attempts from 36 percent of his shot attempts last season to 26 percent in 2014-15, per Basketball-Reference.com, helping his true shooting percentage.

Thorpe: Beal is already one of the top perimeter shooters in the game and a solid defender. He does not offer much more than that at this point, but the hope is that he grows his overall game similar to how Klay Thompson has done.

Elhassan: The perfect complement to Wall, Beal is a sweet shooter with good size and athleticism. Beal has had an injury-riddled start to his career, but when healthy he's got the potential to be one of the best shooting guards.