My must-avoid players for 2014
As I continue to prepare for the 2014 fantasy football season, a number of players stick out as ones I definitely want on my team, while I'll definitely avoid others.
I revealed my list of players who
fall into the first groupthis past week, and now it's time to look at the guys who I think are going too early (and
way too early in some cases) based on ESPN.com
average draft position(ADP).
The disclaimer is I'm not saying you shouldn't take these players at any point, and sure, if they're still on the board well beyond their respective ADPs, you can take the shot. But here are six players whom I'll generally avoid based on what I've seen on video, things I've heard from players, coaches and executives, and the experience I've gained playing in both the NFL and fantasy football leagues.
Note: Players are arranged in order of ADP as of Monday, and the 2013 point totals are using ESPN.com standard scoring.
Arian Foster, RB,Houston Texans
ADP:12.9
2013 points:81
Here's the deal: Foster is coming off back surgery, and although there's talk that it wasn't a "major" back surgery, that's a relative term.
I hope that Foster comes all the way back and is the same player he was, but I don't know of a single player who has had back surgery and come back to be as good. The movements needed to play the sport effectively, especially at running back, are challenging enough without a repaired back. I'd almost rather Foster be coming off an ACL injury because there's a track record of players returning to the field just as strong after that surgery.
On the positive side, nobody is behind him on the Texans' depth chart. In the past, we were always worried aboutBen Tatestealing carries (and possibly touchdowns) away from Foster, but the Texans have clearly put their faith in him as their lead back, and not a lot of teams around the league do that anymore.
But when it's time to draft my team, I don't want him. Give me the guy who had an ankle problem, a shoulder problem or a knee problem ... really anything other than a back problem. Near the beginning of Round 2, I want a player who offers more reliability.
Matthew Stafford, QB,Detroit Lions
ADP:34.1
2013 points:267
The story with Stafford stayed the same for the past few seasons: While offensive coordinator Scott Linehan was calling the plays, the Lions were going to throw
a ton. The stats bear that out. Stafford had 663 pass attempts in 2011, 727 in 2012 and 634 in 2013. Throwing the ball that much is great for yardage, but doesn't guarantee touchdowns -- Stafford topped 30 touchdowns only once during those three seasons.
Now that Linehan is with the Cowboys, the Lions' offense will get more conservative, and it won't be surprising if Stafford is under 600 attempts this season. He was No. 7 in scoring among fantasy quarterbacks last season, and he's being taken as the No. 4 QB this summer (in the early fourth round). You're telling me he's going to get better in 2014, running a more conservative offense?
The league depth at QB comes into play here, too. The elite guys (Peyton Manning,Aaron RodgersandDrew Brees) will score a bunch more than the competition, but Stafford won't be in that group. Waiting until the seventh (when you can getTom BradyorColin Kaepernick) or ninth (when you can getMatt Ryan) will cost you only about 20 points for the entire season.
Rob Gronkowski, TE,New England Patriots
ADP:35.0
2013 points:80
As I said last week when talking aboutJimmy Graham, there's really no comparison between him and anyone else at tight end, and that includes Gronk. Back when Gronk was healthy, he made one of the biggest impacts on the game. But he's now undergone eight surgeries, and the most recent one to repair a torn ACL and MCL was the most serious.
In the aftermath of the hit fromT.J. Wardthat
ended Gronk's season, there was more talk about how the NFL's crackdown on high hits means that defenders will hit low. That won't change, and it will give Gronk pause every time he makes a catch with defenders close by.
Whether it makes him less effective or just means Gronkowski will get hurt again, I'm not willing to take him as early as he's been drafted.
C.J. Spiller, RB,Buffalo Bills
ADP:46.6
2013 points:109
Spiller is listed as the Bills' starter, but withFred Jackson, Bryce Brown and
Anthony Dixonalso on the roster, Buffalo is very heavy at running back, and I'm not confident Spiller is worth taking in the fifth round, based on a few factors.
In 2013, Spiller was a first-round fantasy pick, then went on to be the 28th-rated fantasy running back that season. He was significantly less involved than Jackson (who outscored him 175 to 109). Now you add Brown and Dixon into the mix, and I'm not entirely sure that this coaching staff is in love with Spiller anyway.
Spiller is in the last year of his deal, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets traded at some point. Maybe he'd be in a better situation at that point, but that's not the kind of guy I want to rely on in fantasy. He's going a few picks after Tate by ADP, and I'd much rather take an unquestioned starter than a player who will be fighting for touches all season.
Hakeem Nicks, WR,Indianapolis Colts
ADP:123.7
2013 points:85
Nicks did not find the end zone in 2013 despite 102 targets. He was a big part of why the Giants struggled, as he had trouble getting off press coverage. That's not exactly what you want to do when your contract is up the following offseason. Another bad sign was that former Giants executive Dave Gettleman -- who had brought Nicks to the team -- had no interest in him as a free agent this offseason, and Gettleman's new team, the Panthers, really needed wide receivers.
Another strike on Nicks is that after signing a one-year prove-it deal, he showed up to Colts camp out of shape. He's been OK this preseason, but I'm not convinced that he'll be their No. 3 receiver this season. And remember, this team will use two tight ends a lot, so the No. 3 receiver might not have a very big role.
I don't always trust rookies, especially at wide receiver, but around the same time that Nicks is being taken,Mike Evans,Brandin Cooksand second-year proJustin Hunterare on the board. I already have my starters and primary backups at that point, so I'm going with a high-upside pick like one of those three instead of a guy with so many questions.
Johnny Manziel, QB,Cleveland Browns
ADP:128.7
2013 points:N/A
From what I've seen and heard, Manziel has a habit of passing up an open guy in order to make a big play. That's part of what made him "Johnny Football" at Texas A&M, but he needs to learn how to work "take what you can get" into his mentality at the NFL level. As a coach once told me, "you never go broke taking a profit" with short-yardage plays to open receivers.
I get the argument for taking Manziel for his potential. But if you're going to do that, you need to make sure you have a good backup (for your starting quarterback's bye week, and in case he gets hurt). Manziel has looked good at times this preseason, but we don't know when or if he'll take over the starting job in Cleveland.
I'd rather stick with someone likeBen Roethlisbergeras my backup. Roethlisberger was better than you remember in 2013 -- he was the No. 12 fantasy QB, playing behind a battered O-line -- and you know what you're going to get with him. There's even an argument to be made forMichael Vickover Manziel, if you want to draft a real-life backup. Vick is going undrafted in many leagues, and Roethlisberger is going in the same round as Manziel.