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My must-avoid players for 2014
As I continue to prepare for the 2014 fantasy football season, a number of players stick out as ones I definitely want on my team, while I'll definitely avoid others.
I revealed my list of players who fall into the first groupthis past week, and now it's time to look at the guys who I think are going too early (and way too early in some cases) based on ESPN.comaverage draft position(ADP).
The disclaimer is I'm not saying you shouldn't take these players at any point, and sure, if they're still on the board well beyond their respective ADPs, you can take the shot. But here are six players whom I'll generally avoid based on what I've seen on video, things I've heard from players, coaches and executives, and the experience I've gained playing in both the NFL and fantasy football leagues.
Note: Players are arranged in order of ADP as of Monday, and the 2013 point totals are using ESPN.com standard scoring.
Arian Foster, RB,Houston Texans
ADP:12.9
2013 points:81
Here's the deal: Foster is coming off back surgery, and although there's talk that it wasn't a "major" back surgery, that's a relative term.
I hope that Foster comes all the way back and is the same player he was, but I don't know of a single player who has had back surgery and come back to be as good. The movements needed to play the sport effectively, especially at running back, are challenging enough without a repaired back. I'd almost rather Foster be coming off an ACL injury because there's a track record of players returning to the field just as strong after that surgery.
On the positive side, nobody is behind him on the Texans' depth chart. In the past, we were always worried aboutBen Tatestealing carries (and possibly touchdowns) away from Foster, but the Texans have clearly put their faith in him as their lead back, and not a lot of teams around the league do that anymore.
But when it's time to draft my team, I don't want him. Give me the guy who had an ankle problem, a shoulder problem or a knee problem ... really anything other than a back problem. Near the beginning of Round 2, I want a player who offers more reliability.
Matthew Stafford, QB,Detroit Lions
ADP:34.1
2013 points:267
The story with Stafford stayed the same for the past few seasons: While offensive coordinator Scott Linehan was calling the plays, the Lions were going to throw a ton. The stats bear that out. Stafford had 663 pass attempts in 2011, 727 in 2012 and 634 in 2013. Throwing the ball that much is great for yardage, but doesn't guarantee touchdowns -- Stafford topped 30 touchdowns only once during those three seasons.
Now that Linehan is with the Cowboys, the Lions' offense will get more conservative, and it won't be surprising if Stafford is under 600 attempts this season. He was No. 7 in scoring among fantasy quarterbacks last season, and he's being taken as the No. 4 QB this summer (in the early fourth round). You're telling me he's going to get better in 2014, running a more conservative offense?
The league depth at QB comes into play here, too. The elite guys (Peyton Manning,Aaron RodgersandDrew Brees) will score a bunch more than the competition, but Stafford won't be in that group. Waiting until the seventh (when you can getTom BradyorColin Kaepernick) or ninth (when you can getMatt Ryan) will cost you only about 20 points for the entire season.
Rob Gronkowski, TE,New England Patriots
ADP:35.0
2013 points:80
As I said last week when talking aboutJimmy Graham, there's really no comparison between him and anyone else at tight end, and that includes Gronk. Back when Gronk was healthy, he made one of the biggest impacts on the game. But he's now undergone eight surgeries, and the most recent one to repair a torn ACL and MCL was the most serious.
In the aftermath of the hit fromT.J. Wardthatended Gronk's season, there was more talk about how the NFL's crackdown on high hits means that defenders will hit low. That won't change, and it will give Gronk pause every time he makes a catch with defenders close by.
Whether it makes him less effective or just means Gronkowski will get hurt again, I'm not willing to take him as early as he's been drafted.
C.J. Spiller, RB,Buffalo Bills
ADP:46.6
2013 points:109
Spiller is listed as the Bills' starter, but withFred Jackson, Bryce Brown andAnthony Dixonalso on the roster, Buffalo is very heavy at running back, and I'm not confident Spiller is worth taking in the fifth round, based on a few factors.
In 2013, Spiller was a first-round fantasy pick, then went on to be the 28th-rated fantasy running back that season. He was significantly less involved than Jackson (who outscored him 175 to 109). Now you add Brown and Dixon into the mix, and I'm not entirely sure that this coaching staff is in love with Spiller anyway.
Spiller is in the last year of his deal, and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets traded at some point. Maybe he'd be in a better situation at that point, but that's not the kind of guy I want to rely on in fantasy. He's going a few picks after Tate by ADP, and I'd much rather take an unquestioned starter than a player who will be fighting for touches all season.
Hakeem Nicks, WR,Indianapolis Colts
ADP:123.7
2013 points:85
Nicks did not find the end zone in 2013 despite 102 targets. He was a big part of why the Giants struggled, as he had trouble getting off press coverage. That's not exactly what you want to do when your contract is up the following offseason. Another bad sign was that former Giants executive Dave Gettleman -- who had brought Nicks to the team -- had no interest in him as a free agent this offseason, and Gettleman's new team, the Panthers, really needed wide receivers.
Another strike on Nicks is that after signing a one-year prove-it deal, he showed up to Colts camp out of shape. He's been OK this preseason, but I'm not convinced that he'll be their No. 3 receiver this season. And remember, this team will use two tight ends a lot, so the No. 3 receiver might not have a very big role.
I don't always trust rookies, especially at wide receiver, but around the same time that Nicks is being taken,Mike Evans,Brandin Cooksand second-year proJustin Hunterare on the board. I already have my starters and primary backups at that point, so I'm going with a high-upside pick like one of those three instead of a guy with so many questions.
Johnny Manziel, QB,Cleveland Browns
ADP:128.7
2013 points:N/A
From what I've seen and heard, Manziel has a habit of passing up an open guy in order to make a big play. That's part of what made him "Johnny Football" at Texas A&M, but he needs to learn how to work "take what you can get" into his mentality at the NFL level. As a coach once told me, "you never go broke taking a profit" with short-yardage plays to open receivers.
I get the argument for taking Manziel for his potential. But if you're going to do that, you need to make sure you have a good backup (for your starting quarterback's bye week, and in case he gets hurt). Manziel has looked good at times this preseason, but we don't know when or if he'll take over the starting job in Cleveland.
I'd rather stick with someone likeBen Roethlisbergeras my backup. Roethlisberger was better than you remember in 2013 -- he was the No. 12 fantasy QB, playing behind a battered O-line -- and you know what you're going to get with him. There's even an argument to be made forMichael Vickover Manziel, if you want to draft a real-life backup. Vick is going undrafted in many leagues, and Roethlisberger is going in the same round as Manziel.
Building a Team USA of college stars
Just imagine if USA Basketball were to revert back to using amateurs for the Olympics and other international competitions. For those of us who've been around a little while, it doesn't seem so long ago that the original Dream Team debuted in the 1992 Barcelona Olympics after the relative disappointment of the 1988 team made up of college players. And while it doesn’t appear to be a likelihood, despite the recent Paul George injury, it's a debate that hasn't completely gone away. My colleague Jay Bilas recently noted that we shouldn't go back to the old ways, in part because our college kids could no longer beat (or even compete with) many of the international teams. I tend to agree.
But what would Team USA look like under the old rules? I decided to come up with an American-born roster full of collegians, plus one high schooler.
Two players who would have made the team but don’t hail from the United States are Oklahoma’s underrated and versatile junior guard Buddy Hield (Bahamas) and Kentucky’s talented freshman forward Karl Towns Jr., who is from the Dominican Republic.
Here’s the team:
Starting five
SF: Sam Dekker, 6-9, 229, Jr., Wisconsin Badgers
He’s now about 6-foot-9 -- he's grown more than an inch in the past year -- and finally has the swagger that hasn’t always been there throughout his college career. He’s skilled, athletic and versatile enough to make shots from the perimeter, and also get to the basket and finish.
PF: Montrezl Harrell, 6-8, 240, Jr., Louisville Cardinals
He’s an athletic, energetic 4-man who can rebound at a high rate, runs the floor well and continues to improve his skill level. He’s a guy who is able to defend his position, and he can also play in the middle in a pinch if absolutely necessary.
C: Frank Kaminsky, 7-0, 240, Sr., Wisconsin Badgers
Frank the Tank is the ideal big man. He has experience and is a versatile big man who can step out or score in the post, and he’s also a more than adequate shot-blocker.
PG: Marcus Paige, 6-1, 175, Jr., North Carolina Tar Heels
He’s extremely versatile, as he has displayed in his first two seasons in Chapel Hill with his effectiveness both on and off the ball. Paige can set up his teammates, and is also a terrific long-range shooter (39 percent on 3-pointers this past season).
SG: Stanley Johnson, 6-7, 235, Fr., Arizona Wildcats
It’s rare to find big, strong and athletic wings with size these days. Johnson will be a freshman this season for Sean Miller, but he’s already a man -- and can power his way to the basket or post up smaller guards -- and he’s nearly unstoppable if his perimeter shot is falling.
Bench
Georges Niang, 6-8, 225, PF, Jr., Iowa State Cyclones
I thought long and hard about putting him in the starting lineup, but decided to go with Harrell due to his length and athleticism. Niang is a do-it-all guy. He’s an average athlete, but he scores in a variety of ways, is a tremendous passer and also rebounds his position. He’s also an intangible guy that I want on my team for his leadership.
Caris LeVert, 6-7, 200, SG-SF, Jr., Michigan Wolverines
With the departure of Nik Stauskas, he’ll become the newest Michigan star. He’s long, can really defend and now that he’s put on some more weight, he’ll be able to finish with more effectiveness around the basket. He’s a guy who does just about everything, including shooting the ball from the perimeter (41 percent from 3 last season).
Jahlil Okafor, 6-11, 270, C, Fr., Duke Blue Devils
He has yet to play a college contest, but he’s extremely skilled and is an interior presence. He’s not a high-level athlete, but he gives the team a guy who can score in the post, and he’s also a high-level rebounder.
Ron Baker, 6-4, 215, G, Jr., Wichita State Shockers
Baker is ideal to have on the squad due to his versatility. He can play both backcourt spots, shoots it well, gets to the basket and also brings no shortage of toughness to the team. My rule: Always have three guys on a team who can play the point. We’ve got Paige, Smith and Baker.
R.J. Hunter, 6-5, 185, SG, Jr., Georgia State Panthers
Ron Hunter's kid is one of the elite pure shooters in the country (he shot 40 percent from 3 last season), and possesses an extremely high basketball IQ. He’s not just a shooter, though, and would be ideal coming off the bench.
Myles Turner, 6-11, 240, PF-C, Fr., Texas Longhorns
He’s long and will provide the team with a guy who can impact the game on both ends of the floor. The Texas native is skilled, and can score both in the post and also make shots from midrange with ease. He’ll also give the team another rim protector.
Kenneth Smith, 6-2, 180, PG, Sr., Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
We need a backup point guard, and I’m going with someone who can really pass the ball, push the tempo and get after people on the defensive end. Smith isn’t a knockdown shooter, but he’d be terrific coming off the bench with the right group and will accept his role. There may be no better passer in college basketball. Smith has some Rajon Rondo to his game.
Jaylen Brown, 6-7, 220, SF, Wheeler High (Ga.)
I’m going with one high schooler on the squad, and Brown wouldn’t be on it as a token addition, either. He’d play. Brown is a big, strong and athletic scoring wing who can make shots from the perimeter, but his biggest asset is his physical and mental toughness. He’d find a way onto the floor.
QuarterCenturyLegend
Stoopid Life
If you could @Skooby http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...diction-kyrie-irving-top-point-guard-2015-nba Thank you, sir.
Revisiting my Kyrie prediction
Two years ago, I wrote that Kyrie Irving would be the NBA's best point guard by 2015. I felt the combination of his incredible skill level and exceptional poise set him apart, particularly at his age, and this opinion was shared by other scouts around the league.
While we still have a season to go before that prediction can ultimately be confirmed or disproved, the past two years have not exactly followed the upward trajectory we expected of Irving back in 2012. What went right and what went wrong? Here's a look at whether Irving can complete his ascension to prominence.
What went right
My scouting report on Irving wasn't that far off. Some excerpts from the piece written in 2012:
"His timing is impeccable, and he delivers one-handed pocket bounce passes with the ease and accuracy of a wily veteran. Not only does he make all the right reads out of the pick-and-roll, but he also knows how to create new opportunities after initial action has stagnated."
Irving does not disappoint as a passer; he's able to squeeze passes through tight spaces and make less-than-obvious reads that make it difficult for defenses to play the passing lanes. Despite the large amount of time spent with the ball in his hand and the high assist rates he posts, Irving remarkably does not turn the ball over often. In fact, he had the second-lowest turnover percentage of any player with an assist percentage greater than 30 percent, behind only Mike Conley and just ahead of Chris Paul.
"Irving excels going either direction, using either hand and going off either foot...He is an excellent perimeter shooter, shooting at above 40 percent from 3-point land in his NBA career. His in-between game has improved tremendously, and he actually attempts a fair amount of left-handed runners and floaters, which will one day make him that much harder to guard. He finishes at the rim through contact, but is also extremely aware of baseline cutters."
Again, he's continued to show the ability to operate ambidextrously, which keeps defenders off-balance. Although his 3-point shooting percentage took a dip last year, he's still a deadly shooter, particularly against opponents who choose to go under on pick-and-rolls. The in-between game is still a work in progress, but he continues to show improvement.
What went "wrong"
It's no secret that Irving's biggest downside thus far has been his lack of fervor on the defensive end:
"Irving will often 'conserve' energy on the defensive end. He is overly reliant on help defense when guarding the ball, often taking a liberal interpretation of 'send him to the help' with an open stance that not only allows but encourages blow-bys."
Two years later, he's not just conserving energy on defense, he's practically a spokesperson for Greenpeace! His effort, attention to detail and execution all leave a lot to be desired, and opponents often will try to scheme him into iso situations on an island to take advantage of his liabilities as a defender.
Also, and as expected, the revolving door of inferior talent in Cleveland has had a negative effect on Irving's development.
"... his scoring ability [and the lack of other viable offensive options on the Cavs] force him to look for his shot more aggressively, which can manifest itself in sub-par shot selection."
If anything, Irving has devolved in this category; despite continuing to post stellar assist rates, he is a conservative passer -- not in pass types, but in attempts. The lack of trust in his teammates can sometimes be painful, and it also manifests itself in questionable shot selection. Irving's medium-range jumpers (particularly from long 2-point range) have taken an increasing share of his shot totals, and they often come under the duress of defensive pressure.
Some of the blame can be placed at the feet of an unimaginative offense that relied too heavily on Irving creating out of pick-and-roll with subpar spacing options and little to no movement on the weakside, but again, the expectation is for an elite player to be able to remain disciplined through that kind of adversity.
Cause for optimism
Obviously, the offseason transformation of the Cavs greatly changes how Irving can and will be utilized, and how he'll be defended.
Off the ball
Playing alongside LeBron James gives Irving a greater opportunity to play off-ball, particularly in spot-up and motion sets. He's an underrated cutter, and it's not hard to imagine him mimicking some of the "ghost cuts" (a back cut made out of a spot-up situation where the defender is momentarily distracted by the ball) Dwyane Wade famously executed in Miami with James as the ball handler:
In fact, guarding against the Irving ghost cut will be harder to defend because of the threat of his 3-point prowess, as opposed to Wade, whose career 3-point shooting percentage resides south of the Kendall Gill line (minimum 30 percent from 3).
Another way Irving will benefit from his cutting will be playing off of Kevin Love. Besides the "touchdowns" he's famous for, Love also is an alert passer from the pinch post, finding baseline cutters and weakside shooters. Despite playing alongside other pseudo-playmaking guards Jarrett Jack and Dion Waiters last season, the majority of Irving's assisted buckets came off passes from Anderson Varejao, and Love should be able to pad his assist numbers in a similar fashion.
On the ball
Of course, Irving won't just be better off the ball; the addition of James and Love will also make his life easier when he's creating off the dribble. The same principles we detailed in the "Theory of Gravity" animated video apply here, as the 3-point shooting reputations of James and Love (not to mention Mike Miller), will force would-be help defenders to stay "hugged up" on their men, giving Irving a ton more space. This was apparent down the stretch last season, when the Cavs put him and Spencer Hawes in pick-and-pop situations.
Other benefits this season
New head coach David Blatt is regarded as an offensive wizard, with creative playsets that keep defenses moving and give players more options. Also, the higher caliber of teammates (along with the new-found culture of winning) will make Irving a more willing passer, as it's easier to trust his targets.
The White Whale: Defense
Being a more efficient and dangerous offensive option isn't the biggest obstacle standing in the way of Irving -- it's his defensive proficiency. The hope is that with a reduced offensive burden, a demanding culture of excellence, and the assistance of versatile (if past prime) defenders such as James, Varejao and Shawn Marion, Irving will put forth the effort and focus to be better defensively.
The onus is on him to take that challenge, and three years of bad habits built are not erased overnight, but it is his responsibility to continue to work at it, both on-court and in preparation by consuming scouting reports and video.
What else could go wrong?
Of course, Irving could do all of these things and still not be the best point guard in the NBA by 2015, for two reasons:
1. Playing alongside two great players requires a certain amount of sacrifice for the greater good of the team. We live in an era obsessed with assigning credit and blame for everything, and the statistical tools of the day don't always do a great job of doing that. One can look no further than the trials and tribulations of Chris Bosh, an elite power forward who sacrificed individual stats for team excellence and in turn has been severely underrated by the masses.
2. There are a lot of good point guards out there! From newcomers such as Damian Lillard to guys who took significant leaps such as Goran Dragic, Kyle Lowry and John Wall, to incumbents such as Chris Paul, Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook, the point guard landscape is littered with high-level talents, and indeed, it seems like the main separator for the past few seasons has been health. But any ranking of players by position is, by nature, subjective, and for any player, being considered "the best" carries with it a certain amount of "beauty is in the eye of the beholder."
QuarterCenturyLegend
Stoopid Life
Rocket Scientist
Superstar
Yo Skooby you got the ranking of every NFL teams Super Bowl odds/chances?Thanks
I can't find it. You got a link?
Rocket Scientist
Superstar
I'm gonna try to find it.
Rocket Scientist
Superstar
Thanks
What if FSU played in the SEC?
Last year, the Florida State Seminoles posted an average margin of victory of 39.5 points per game on their way to the national title. Nobody was predicting invincibility for the Seminoles this fall, but expectations were high that another dominant run through the regular season was probable.
Oklahoma State had other ideas in Week 1. Florida State clung to a single-score lead late in the fourth quarter before quarterback Jameis Winston connected with wide receiver Rashad Greene for a 50-yard touchdown with a little less than four minutes left to put the game out of reach. The 37-31 victory raised some eyebrows over just how much more vulnerable the Seminoles might be in 2014.
We weren't stunned by the result (we predicted a nine-point victory for the Noles), and we aren't pressing any panic buttons for Florida State. According to our projections, the Seminoles won't face an opponent as strong as Oklahoma State until they reach the College Football Playoff. We give Florida State at least a 70 percent chance to win each of its remaining games, including the ACC championship game, and the Seminoles have a win likelihood of at least 85 percent in seven of those matchups. Every other Power 5 conference contender will face more pitfalls in their playoff hunt.
The College Football Playoff selection committee will have an intriguing set of questions to discuss and debate as the season progresses, and Florida State's strength of schedule may be at the heart of those. The Seminoles currently project to have the 60th-ranked schedule according to the latest FEI ratings -- easier than all but one of the teams projected to be a division or conference winner in the other Power 5 leagues.
We produce schedule strength ratings across a spectrum of variables to help compare teams, and we did a visualization of those comparisons with the help of Andrew Garcia Phillips of Chartball.com. According to our data, for instance, it would be more difficult for an elite team to go 10-2 against Auburn's schedule (42.5 percent likelihood) than it would be to go 12-0 against Iowa's schedule (48.4 percent likelihood). Those are the toughest and easiest schedules, respectively, in the Power 5 conferences, according to our ratings.
While FSU's slate isn't as weak as Iowa's, it still pales in comparison to Alabama's or Oregon's. So we calculated the Seminoles' projected record against their own schedule, and compared it with the projected record they would have if they played the schedule of the projected winners of each of the Power 5 conferences and divisions.
Projected SEC West champion: Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama's schedule would give Florida State 1.1 extra losses
If Florida State swapped its schedule with the Tide, the Seminoles would immediately upgrade the top three opponents on their slate. Texas A&M, LSU and Auburn are all ranked in the top eight in the current FEI rankings, though Alabama does get two of those three at home. The fourth-best team on Alabama's schedule (Mississippi) is ranked right alongside the highest-ranked team on Florida State's schedule (Oklahoma State, which is already out of the way). The Seminoles would have only a 17 percent chance of going 6-0 if they played in the SEC West, while they have a 22 percent chance of running the table against their current schedule.
Projected SEC East champion: Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia's schedule would give Florida State 0.8 extra losses
Like Florida State, Georgia plays both Clemson and Florida, so those challenges are basically a wash when comparing the schedules. But the Bulldogs' next tier of opponents trumps the next tier on the Seminoles' schedule -- Auburn, Missouri and South Carolina are ranked as a stronger trio of opponents than Oklahoma State, Louisville and Notre Dame. The Seminoles would have only a 27 percent chance of beating both sets of Tigers and the Gamecocks. And the conference championship game would be a much bigger challenge against the SEC West than what the Seminoles project to face coming out of the ACC Coastal.
Projected Pac-12 North champion: Oregon Ducks
Oregon's schedule would give Florida State 1.1 extra losses
The Ducks have one of the marquee nonconference matchups of the season when they face Michigan State at home on Saturday, but that game actually doesn't rate as significantly more challenging than the test the Noles just passed this weekend against Oklahoma State. The key difference if FSU swapped schedules with Oregon is the conference tests against UCLA and Stanford. Both the Bruins and Cardinal are ranked among the FEI top 12, but the toughest conference opponent on Florida State's ACC schedule is No. 24 Louisville. Florida State has a 43 percent chance of going undefeated in the ACC, but would have only a 33 percent chance of beating both UCLA and Stanford.
Projected Pac-12 South champion: USC Trojans
USC's schedule would give Florida State 1.5 extra losses
The Trojans were impressive last weekend, solidifying our preseason projection that they are the favorite to emerge out of the Pac-12 South. Their schedule isn't easy, however, and actually would give Florida State its worst record in this analysis. Like Oregon's schedule, games against UCLA and Stanford would pose the biggest threats, and in this schedule swap, both games would be on the road. One week after the showdown with UCLA, the Trojans play Notre Dame to end the season. That two-game swing would be the toughest stretch Florida State would face all season, and the Seminoles would have only a 38 percent chance of winning both.
Projected Big Ten East champion: Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State's schedule would give Florida State 0.3 extra losses
Ohio State's schedule isn't exceptionally stronger than Florida State's. In fact, the Seminoles would have an 85 percent win likelihood against eight different opponents on the Buckeyes' slate. If they swapped schedules, however, the Noles would have a lower overall win likelihood due to a very difficult road game against Michigan State and a tough conference championship game opponent out of the Big Ten West. Those differences are relatively slight compared to the rest of the Power 5 contenders, however, and Florida State's overall record is likely to stand up well if compared to a Big Ten opponent's.
Projected Big Ten West champion: Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin's schedule would give Florida State 0.3 extra losses
Like Florida State, the Badgers faced their toughest regular-season test right out of the gate. If the Seminoles swapped schedules with Wisconsin, the neutral-site game against LSU would have been even more difficult than facing Oklahoma State. The rest of the regular-season schedule would be a relative cakewalk (44 percent chance FSU would run the table) before ramping up against another strong challenger in the Big Ten championship game.
Projected Big 12 champion: Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma's schedule would give Florida State 0 extra losses
Oklahoma's overall schedule wouldn't be an upgrade for the Seminoles, and because the Big 12 doesn't have a conference championship game, there would be one fewer obstacle. The challenge with the Sooners' schedule is the sequence of opponents. A road trip to TCU and the Red River Rivalry against Texas come in back-to-back weeks in October, immediately followed by a showdown with a dangerous Kansas State team. In November, a tricky road trip to Lubbock is followed by a game against presumptive Big 12 challenger Baylor. The toughest matchups on Florida State's schedule are much more evenly spaced.
beenz
Rap Guerilla
@Skooby
can you post this please?
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11452759/derrick-rose-fit-new-role-chicago-bulls-nba
can you post this please?
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/11452759/derrick-rose-fit-new-role-chicago-bulls-nba
Rose fits a new role for Chicago
No NBA player enters the 2014-15 season with a wider range of possible outcomes than Derrick Rose. Have Rose's two FIBA performances in Spain shed any light on what may happen? Not really -- and how could they? Nevertheless, Rose's complementary role on the loaded Team USA squad could be a forerunner version of the Rose we're going to get in what the Bulls hope will be his first healthy season in four years.
As you may already know, Rose has played in just 50 games, including the playoffs, over the last three NBA seasons. That's just 50 of 237 games (21 percent) of Chicago's regular and postseason games during that span. Both numbers are significant, because they mean not only has Rose's career trajectory been thrown askew, but his teammates have gotten used to playing without him.
As with most teams, the Bulls' roster has seen a lot of churning during Rose's long convalescence, but rotation players Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson, Jimmy Butler and Kirk Hinrich have all played nearly two complete seasons together, sans Rose. Second-year wing Tony Snell and veteran Mike Dunleavy have barely played with Rose. And it goes without saying that Rose has never played with Bulls newcomers Pau Gasol, Doug McDermott, Nikola Mirotic, Aaron Brooks and Cameron Bairstow.
All of this makes Rose perhaps the most difficult player in the league to project. SCHOENE is pessimistic, pegging Rose for 4.1 WARP and a .437 individual winning percentage. It's not just a hedge against another season of limited minutes. It's also track record. Let's not forget Rose did get 10 games in last season, during which he was 0.5 wins below replacement level, with a .332 winning percentage. Sure, Rose was still working his way back into shape, and at the time he was hurt, it appeared he was starting to come around. But his numbers were what his numbers were, and that's what gets loaded into a projection system.
The best news for the Bulls is that their revamped roster looks very good on paper. SCHOENE has Chicago forecast in the mid-50s in wins, and as the clear No. 2 team in the East behind Cleveland. That's with Rose's pessimistic projection. A full season of a more efficient Rose can only boost the Bulls' fortunes. Yet not only is another 17-WARP, MVP-level Rose unlikely, it might not even be a good idea.
Before putting some numbers to this notion, let's consider the style of play we've seen from Rose so far on Team USA. The results have been mixed -- one solid, easy performance in the romp over Finland, followed by a relatively empty stat line against the matchup zone of Turkey -- and in the grand scheme of things, these numbers tell us next to nothing. His role, on the other hand, may be informative.
On offense, Rose has been used to help hurry the ball down the floor to get Team USA into its offense. When he's seen an opening to cross over an isolated defender, or to attack a lane abandoned by opposing bigs, he's shown the explosion required to get to the basket, or to set up a teammate. His shot-making is rusty and passing erratic, but he's gotten to the line and even gotten one of those two-handed, dunk-on-the-way-up finishes that recalls his otherworldly athleticism. But more often than not, Rose has initiated the offense and then watched his talented teammates go to work. On defense, Rose has been expending a lot of energy in the scheme designed by Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau, and has been effective at harassing opposing point guards trying to get their own attacks under way.
The Bulls, talented as they are, certainly don't have the weapons of Team USA, so Rose isn't going to spend nearly so many possessions spotting up on the perimeter during the NBA season. However, whereas the pre-Rose-injury Bulls were designed to complement his talents, and the roster built to fully leverage his style of play, the new Bulls have more built-in versatility. Some of that comes from the newcomers, but a lot of it also comes from the evolutionary turns made by Noah, Gibson and Butler in Rose's absence. The combination of these factors should allow Thibodeau to field a diverse attack that allows Rose to pick his spots similar to what he's been doing for Team USA, albeit to a lesser extent.
Consider the accompanying chart noting the key offensive metrics for the top nine players on the Bulls in 2010-11 -- Rose's MVP season -- and the projected top nine for 2014-15, listed with their results from last season along with projections for Rose and the newcomers.
Less Rose is fine with Bulls
2010-11USGORTGAST%2013-14USGORTGAST%
Rose32.4115.39.5Rose*29.6110.38.7
Noah16.9110.73.1Noah18.9110.67.1
Gibson16.9107.21.5Gibson23.2107.01.8
Deng21.0109.93.3Dunleavy17.2108.33.4
Boozer27.1109.33.6Gasol26.5108.44.7
Korver18.4110.83.5McDermott*24.6109.72.2
Brewer14.0106.53.6Butler17.0107.93.1
Watson21.5108.47.9Hinrich17.6107.76.3
Asik12.6107.11.5Mirotic*19.2109.22.5
Noah has taken on a greater role on offense without losing efficiency. The jump in assist rate is astonishing, though it'll go down this season not only because of Rose's return, but also due to the addition of Gasol, a great passing big man in his own right. Chicago now knows it can run its offense through Noah when needed, either when Rose sits or because of the particular matchup that's on the floor. This will mean that more than he ever did before, Rose will be able to initiate the offense and then spot up, where he can hopefully showcase the catch-and-shoot abilities he's been working on the last two years. It won't be a staple, but it's an option.
Gasol steps right into the role that Boozer filled in his initial Chicago season before his play declined, though there are differences in utility. Gasol is a better low-post option than Boozer, while offering much of the same face-up ability, and he's a better passer. There will be plenty of possessions that begin with Rose dumping the ball inside to Gasol. The trend continues when Gibson steps onto the floor, where he's added more than 6 percent of usage without a corresponding loss of efficiency, though on Chicago's new roster, Gibson can force fewer iffy jumpers. Dunleavy won't use as many possessions as Deng used to, but you can run plays for him, and he's a better floor spacer and passer.
Two other key differences in the rosters are due to the rookies. McDermott projects as a higher-usage version of Korver with more offensive utility. You can run McDermott off screens or spot him up in the same manner as Korver, but McDermott is better at putting the ball on the floor, and can also operate in the post. And Mirotic is the polar opposite of Asik as a reserve big -- he doesn't lock down the lane on defense, but scores inside and out in a variety of ways. Both of Chicago's rookies should provide plenty of possessions of high-efficiency offense, with or without Rose on the floor. With him, their catch-and-shoot abilities will be a perfect fit.
When we talk about the importance of Rose returning to "form," it's going to be tempting to compare the statistical benchmarks of the past and present. That won't be fair. Rose only needs to show that he can be the 17-WARP player who won all the hardware in 2011. He just won't need to be that player as often, because this time, he's got more around him with which to work. The end result could not only mean the best offense Chicago has had with Rose, but one that saves him from the wear and tear that's caused him to miss so much time the last three years.