Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

Rakim Allah

Superstar
Joined
May 26, 2012
Messages
12,926
Reputation
2,082
Daps
21,595
Reppin
Los Angeles
Best under-the-radar moves

Not every NBA transaction has the seismic consequences of LeBron James' return to Cleveland, but smaller moves can still have a big impact.

An example of a difference-making move that didn't create any kind of stir when it happened was San Antonio's signing of Marco Belinelli last summer. Belinelli provided the already-deep Spurs with a reasonable facsimile to Manu Ginobili, and ended up second on the Spurs in minutes played during the regular season. Further, it was the efficiency of players such as Belinelli, Patty Mills and Boris Diaw that allowed the Spurs to keep their foundation players under 30 minutes per game, preserving the veterans' best performance for San Antonio's title run.

Likewise, Washington's midseason acquisition of Andre Miller last season helped to solidify the Wizards' rotation. Miller played more than 20 minutes in a game just twice, but the Wizards went 18-10 with Miller, and knocked out Chicago in the first round of the playoffs.

So which relatively unheralded moves from the 2014 offseason will prove significant this season? Here's a look at five under-the-radar additions from this summer that could have important consequences down the line.

i

i


Toronto Raptors
Key additions: James Johnson, Louis Williams

The Raptors focused in large part on retention this summer. Kyle Lowry, Patrick Patterson and Greivis Vasquez all could have left. All will be back with Toronto this season.

Maintaining and building the status quo makes sense for the Raptors, who set a franchise record of 48 wins last season, making the playoffs for the first time in six years despite having a roster with a minutes-weighted average age of just 26.6 years old. As such, GM Masai Ujiri chose to construct a roster this summer that will allow for continued growth. The Raptors currently project to get 86 percent of their minutes from players on last year's team, the sixth-highest rate of retention in the league.

Of course, standing pat can have the downside of limiting upside. If your foundation isn't good enough to contend, even with development, you end up stuck in a state of stasis. So rather than upset the apple cart, Ujiri's offseason has also been aimed at improving on the margins. And by adding James Johnson and Louis Williams, he appears to have succeeded.

Toronto was a very balanced team statistically a year ago, but were glaringly unable to get score in the paint. While they drew a lot of fouls, they couldn't get baskets from close in with any consistency. Only two teams in the NBA had a lower percentage of its points in the paint. Making matters worse, Toronto ranked 23rd in overall 2-point field goal accuracy. For a team built around Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Jonas Valanciunas, those are surprising -- and disturbing -- figures.

Williams could help turn things around inside. From 2005-2012, with Philadelphia, 52 percent of Williams' shots came from inside of 16 feet, according to Basketball-Reference.com. But after suffering a major knee injury, he became more of a jump-shooter in Atlanta. He's another year removed from surgery now, though, and the hope is he'll be able to resume the off-the-dribble game he featured with the Sixers.

Meanwhile, Johnson has improved on the shot selection that had undermined his athleticism earlier in his career. Last season, he took 61 percent of his shots from 10 feet and in. Even better, Johnson hit 55 percent of his 2-point shots, a major reason he was able to put up a career-best 4.3 wins above replacement (WARP) in just 18 minutes per game.

Given the number of solid jump-shooters in Toronto, Williams and Johnson should both have plenty of opportunity to attack driving lanes. These moves, along with the natural development of Valanciunas, should mean a lot more points in the paint for the Raptors this season. That might not lead to a huge gain in overall efficiency, but it will make Toronto's attack more versatile, which in turn will pay dividends in the playoffs, when matchups become so important.

i

New Orleans Pelicans
Key addition: Omer Asik

It seems as if we spent so much time focusing on the Rockets' failure to land Chris Bosh that we overlooked what some other teams gained as a result of Houston's feverish pursuit.

Example No. 1: New Orleans' acquisition of Omer Asik for a first-round pick. Thanks to Anthony Davis, the Pelicans led the league in shot-block percentage last season. But they also ranked just 25th in overall defensive efficiency and 27th in 2-point field goal percentage allowed. And according to NBA.com/stats, the Pelicans were only a half-point better per 100 possessions on defense when Davis was on the floor. Clearly, they'll need to do a better job this season of leveraging his abilities on that end.

In that respect, Davis' partnership with Asik should be ideal. Over the course of his career, Asik has improved his teams' defensive rating by 4.3. He's one of the league's best rim protectors and his presence will help Davis fully realize his defensive potential, allowing the 21-year-old phenom to roam as a weakside shot-blocker and wreak havoc.

Last season, New Orleans paired Davis with fellow shot-blocker Greg Stiemsma for 570 minutes, during which the Pelicans' defensive rating was 3.3 points better than its season mark. Asik is about two tiers above Stiemsma as an interior defender. And so he and Davis should spend about three times as many minutes on the floor together. The Pelicans' performance on the defensive end should see a big boost as a result.

The addition of Asik is a big reason the Pelicans may be a breakout team this coming season.

i

Memphis Grizzlies
Key addition: Vince Carter

Memphis has been getting gradually more efficient on the offensive end over the past couple of years. Nevertheless, the Grizzlies' league ranking in frequency of 3-pointers attempted over the past six years has ranked as follows: 27th, 30th, 30th, 28th, 30th and 30th. To highlight the magnitude of this signing: The Grizzlies have been desperate for 3-point shooting since before Barack Obama was president.

Memphis' 3-point percentage last season was within earshot of the league average, so the problem wasn't necessarily with accuracy, but rather with volume. The addition of Carter gives the Grizzlies a different kind of deep threat than the departed Mike Miller. Miller is more accurate than Carter -- as well as just about everyone else in the NBA -- but Carter's no slouch from the arc. He's shot 40 percent from deep over the past two seasons, and possesses better ability than Miller to create his own long-range shots. Last season, Carter averaged 6.8 3-point attempts per 36 minutes, compared to Miller's 4.9.

The Grizzlies also will welcome Quincy Pondexter back from injury this year. In his last healthy season, Pondexter averaged 4.4 3-point attempts per 36 minutes and hit nearly 40 percent of those. The Grizzlies will remain an inside-out team in 2014-2015. The variety of deep shooters now available should help open up the inside for Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph.

My far-too-early projections have the Grizzlies actually making more 3s than three other teams this season. Hey, you have to start somewhere.

i

Chicago Bulls
Key addition: Aaron Brooks

I've written a lot about how much success Tom Thibodeau has with shoot-first point guards. Jannero Pargo, John Lucas III, Nate Robinson and D.J. Augustin all have helped prop up Chicago's offense with ultimate shoot-first point guard Derrick Rose sidelined. Chicago lost Augustin to the Pistons during free agency, but Brooks is a worthy replacement in that key second-unit scoring role.

Augustin and Brooks have had remarkably similar careers, though Augustin had the superior 2013-14 campaign and is three years younger. They shoot the 3-ball equally well, but Brooks has generally produced higher volumes of usage and scoring. The hope is that Brooks' efficiency will get the same kind of boost that other players of his ilk have had under Thibodeau. By adding Brooks, the Bulls can now mix and match with him, Rose and Kirk Hinrich, and they can save wear and tear on Rose by playing him off the ball for stretches.
:salute:Thanks Skooby
 

Skooby

Alone In My Zone
Supporter
Joined
Sep 30, 2012
Messages
25,167
Reputation
10,242
Daps
59,713
Reppin
The Cosmos
Five takeaways from Adidas Nations

Adidas Nations, one of the final team events of the summer, finished its four-day run on Monday. The talent included outstanding players in the United States to top global prospects. In the championship game, 2016 adidas U.S. Lillard defeated 2016 adidas U.S. Wall, 106-78. 2015 adidas U.S. Howard won the consolation over team Europe, 52-46.

My five takeaways

1. The best of all worlds

Talent from different high school classes in the United States as well as some top international talent all under one roof ultimately competing for a championship made this an exciting venue. The event had more than 30 ESPN-ranked prospects from seniors to rising sophomores. It was especially strong with underclassmen.

August is a tough month for prospects because the players have been going since the end of their high school season. With constant workouts, traveling for events and trying to deal with recruiting, they responded well.

2. 2015, 2016 and international

The rising senior class of 2015 will constantly be compared to the group ahead of it (2014) and the class behind (2016). This current group of seniors has talent across the board, without any real star power. The current candidates to have breakout senior seasons are Ben Simmons, Jaylen Brown, Ivan Rabb, Henry Ellenson, Malik Newman and Brandon Ingram.

In the class of 2016 we know how unique Thon Maker is as a prospect and we witnessed the emergence of Dennis Smith Jr. There were some other standouts at Nations who deserve to be mentioned such as De'Aaron Fox, De'Ron Davis, Dewan Huell and Lonzo Ball.

After just a couple of days at Nations, it's evident how gifted the rising junior class is and how many potential stars it just might have.

A few international players who had a great camp were Dillon Brooks (Canada) , Jalen Poyser (Canada) and Bourama Sidibe (Europe). Brooks played his usual productive all-around game which centers around scoring, Poyser scored with the drive, and Sidibe was intimidating at the rim.

3. Chase Jeter stood out

Jeter displayed all of the tools that make him one of the better post prospects in the class of 2015. He scored, ran the floor, hit the glass, created fouls, set screens and protected the rim by blocking shots. He finished with 18 points, 14 rebounds and four blocks, helping his team win the third-place game.

Jeter is one of more productive players in the class. He still needs to fill out his frame and develop a counter to his jump hook over his left shoulder to complement his post-game.

Shortly after the game he announced his choice to attend Duke next year, and along with Luke Kennard will give the Blue Devils a terrific inside-outside combination and two potential McDonald's All-Americans.

4. Dennis Smith Jr. made his debut

The nation got its first look at Dennis Smith Jr. (No. 9 overall and the No. 1 PG in 2016) in the championship game, and he did not disappoint. Smith plays the game with a pace and a demeanor you want from your point guard as he can play fast or slow with equal effectiveness, and his facial expression and focus doesn't change.

With an understanding of his position along with a strong frame, speed and an impressive vertical he guided his team to a championship against Team Wall.

The next step in his development is to master a floater and a jump stop inside the foul line and outside the restricted arc in the paint. It will help make him more effective as a scorer and a playmaker.

Smith told me he holds 10 offers, but that will certainly change. Duke, North Carolina , NC State, Kansas, VCU, Florida, Wake Forest, Charlotte, Arizona and Miami are the ones already on the bandwagon.

5. Sign of an impact player

Clearly Jaylen Brown had tired legs and was frustrated against the length of Team Europe. Brown attacked the basket but had trouble finishing (3 of 16), and his outside shot (0 of 4 on 3s), which is normally smooth and effective, was not dropping. Brown also had his shot changed and blocked at times because Team Europe had some impressive length protecting the basket, and they tried to step in and take charges.

To his credit, Brown created fouls and ended up going to the line 16 times, converting 13. Brown might not always shoot well, but he will try and draw contact and continues to rebound. He finds a way to win a game which shows his high level of competitiveness and a winning attitude.
 

Skooby

Alone In My Zone
Supporter
Joined
Sep 30, 2012
Messages
25,167
Reputation
10,242
Daps
59,713
Reppin
The Cosmos
Current players on the HOF brink

Last Friday, NBA stars Alonzo Mourning and Mitch Ritchmond were inducted into the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. As we finish celebrating their coronation, now seems as good a time as any to predict which current NBA players may one day join them.

Players such as Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett and LeBron James, among others, are obviously on track to reach the Hall. Other younger stars like Kevin Durant have years to burnish their résumés and seem likely to one day solidify their status. But there is a handful of veterans whose candidacy isn't so clear-cut. With the help ofBasketball-Reference.com's estimate of Hall of Fame probability and my wins above replacement player (WARP) statistic, let's take a look at those cases and do our best to settle the debate.

Here's an analysis of nine NBA All-Stars on the HOF bubble, including several international players. (Players listed by career WARP.)





Vince Carter
i


Career WARP: 148.1
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 71.3 percent


No candidate elicits a stronger reaction on both sides of the Hall debate than Carter, whose poor reputation around the league flies in the face of the metrics. By the numbers, Carter is one competent season away from cracking a WARP barrier of 150 that has historically been the threshold for election. Every eligible player with at least 150 career WARP has been inducted. Carter signed a three-year deal with the Memphis Grizzlies in the offseason. He should be able to crack the 150 WARP over the course of that deal. Also working in Carter's favor: No player with as many career points (23,190 and counting) has ever been stiff-armed from entry into Springfield. Like it or not, VC seems Hall-bound.

Shawn Marion
i


Career WARP: 142.9
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 26.5 percent

Marion, too, could hit 150 WARP. But his traditional stats leave the argument unsettled. Marion's four All-Star appearances are on the low side for a Hall of Famer. That he was seen as the third option on Phoenix Suns teams that weren't good enough to reach the NBA Finals doesn't help his case, either. He's probably going to have to keep playing long enough to reach 20,000 career points to have a real shot at the Hall.

Chauncey Billups
i


Career WARP: 134.4
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 20.5 percent

Although he recently worked out with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Billups, now 37, is probably done in the NBA. As a late bloomer, Billups wasn't able to build up impressive stats. Still, his WARP total puts him squarely in the Hall of Fame discussion. He will have to hope his 2004 Finals MVP and "Mr. Big Shot" reputation carry enough weight with the election committee.

Elton Brand
i


Career WARP: 132.5
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 5.0 percent

If there were ever a WARP Hall of Fame, Brand would be inducted. As it is, ticket Brand for the "Hall of Very Good." Too many of his best seasons were played for moribund Los Angeles Clippers teams. And though he's spent plenty of time as a useful role player, an Achilles injury cut short his prime. There's just not enough on the résumé to make a strong case in Brand's favor.

Antawn Jamison
i


Career WARP: 79.7
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 4.8 percent

Speaking of the 20,000 rule, the better test isn't Johnson but Jamison, who achieved the milestone last season but has made just two All-Star appearances.

Jamison was waived midway through last season, and at age 38, he's probably done for good. Meanwhile, he never dressed for a championship team and played for few serious contenders. He was the consensus national player of the year at North Carolina, though. His induction is unlikely, but not impossible.

Joe Johnson
i


Career WARP: 66.0
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 24.6 percent

Johnson's candidacy inspired this list, specifically because of his similarity to Richmond's numbers and career. Like Richmond, Johnson's advanced stats are unimpressive, but his consistent scoring has added up. While nobody thinks of it as a magic number such as 3,000 career hits in baseball, all but one eligible player with at least 20,000 career points has been voted to the Hall of Fame. (Tom Chambers is the exception.) Johnson, with 17,000-plus points at age 33, stands an excellent chance of cracking 20K. Add in seven All-Star appearances -- more than recent Hall of Fame shooting guards Richmond (6), Joe Dumars (6), Dennis Johnson (5) and Reggie Miller (5) -- and it seems probable that Johnson will one day be immortalized in Springfield.





International stars

The most important thing to remember about the Basketball Hall of Fame is that it's the Basketball Hall of Fame and not just the NBA Hall; international performance counts, sometimes much more heavily. That's why players like Sarunas Marciulionis (30 NBA starts) and the late Drazen Petrovic (who played just four seasons in the NBA before his career and life were tragically cut short) are Hall of Famers.

Soon, the Hall's international committee will have to begin considering the following players who have enjoyed full NBA careers that put them on the borderline for recognition. (One other, Dirk Nowitzki, is a sure choice.)

Pau Gasol
i


Career WARP: 130.6
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 61.1 percent

If Gasol's contributions were limited to NBA play, he would likely have to sweat out his election a year or two. But because of his roles on two NBA championship teams, and as a legendary member of Spain's national team and as a 2006 world champion, he's in with room to spare.

Manu Ginobili
i


Career WARP: 118.8
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 25.8 percent

Ginobili is the more interesting case. A later start to his NBA career and a few injuries prevented him from piling up the requisite counting stats. (To wit: Ginobili has scored fewer career points than Stephen Jackson.) I suspect he'd still get in on the strength of four championships. His role on Argentina's golden 2004 Olympic team bolsters his case considerably.

Tony Parker
i


Career WARP: 84.2
Basketball-Reference HOF probability: 95.4 percent

Despite his poor WARP figure, Parker's case is the most heavily weighted to NBA performance of the three international candidates. In fact, Basketball-Reference.com's model suggests Parker -- who has accumulated six All-Star appearances, four NBA titles and a Finals MVP -- is the surest bet of any player considered here.
 

Skooby

Alone In My Zone
Supporter
Joined
Sep 30, 2012
Messages
25,167
Reputation
10,242
Daps
59,713
Reppin
The Cosmos
Expectations for Manuel, Watkins

I noted a while back that if rookie WR Sammy Watkins is going to bust loose as a rookie in Fantasyland, EJ Manuel may be the key. Unfortunately, Manuel completed only two of his seven passing attempts for 19 yards during the Buffalo Bills' preseason opener.

Was he any better in practice this week?

"The same EJ Manuel that was seen during Tuesday’s practice reappeared on Wednesday. For the second straight day, Manuel was apprehensive, indecisive and mostly inaccurate," wrote Joe Buscaglia of WGR550.com. "His most common course of action on any given play was to look for his first read to be open, pat the ball in the pocket and either take a sack or throw an inaccurate pass.

"The inconsistency in going through his progressions has to be the most maddening part for the coaching staff. If the light goes on, Manuel could be a different quarterback and find more comfort and poise in the pocket."

In the end, the upside of both Manuel and Watkins this season may be a two-way street with the success of one depending on the other:


Eric Karabell
QB breakouts: back-end range"With this second-year man, the lure is rookie wide receiver Sammy Watkins, the No. 4 overall pick in this year's draft. Manuel really wasn't all that bad his rookie season. He has the arm to find Watkins downfield and the legs to make things happen when the pocket collapses, an intriguing pass/run option if he can stay on the field."

Tristan H. Cockcroft
Be wary of Watkins, rookie wideouts
"Breaking down historical wide receiver performance by the productivity of his quarterback ... a sub-200 fantasy point total for a quarterback isn't a death sentence for a rookie wide receiver, but a sub-150 season certainly seems to be. Slicing that pie into smaller pieces -- say, 151-175 and 176-200 -- doesn't significantly alter the numbers either. That said, notice the significant advantage a rookie wide receiver experienced when his quarterback(s) ranked among the most productive in the league, both in terms of average fantasy points per game and number of 96-point performers. ... This, therefore, boils down to how much you believe in Manuel's sophomore-year progress. Do you believe he's due for another season in the 12.4 fantasy points per game range -- a total of 198 over 16 games -- or is he capable of stepping up his game to perhaps an average between 15 and 16 points (for 250 total)? Your answer has plenty to say about Watkins' probability of making an immediate, every-week impact."​
 

Skooby

Alone In My Zone
Supporter
Joined
Sep 30, 2012
Messages
25,167
Reputation
10,242
Daps
59,713
Reppin
The Cosmos
Reasons to believe in EJ Manuel

Quarterback hasn't been a position of strength for the Buffalo Bills in their history. Yes, the Bills did have Jim Kelly (whom I wish the best in his battle against jaw cancer) and Jack Kemp, but their fourth-highest rated passer in Pro-Football-Reference.com's career approximate value register is Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was recently cutafter leading Buffalo to a mediocre 20-33 record in his four years under center.

The necessity for upgrading at that position is a primary reason the Bills selected EJ Manuel in the first round of the 2013 NFL draft.

That pick was seen as something of a reach given many of Manuel's question marks. Scouts Inc. noted in its pre-draft analysis of Manuel that while his physical tools and leadership qualities are unquestionably strong, he had notable issues with reading progressions, decision-making under pressure and pass accuracy.

Given those weaknesses, it doesn't look possible for Manuel to replicate the recent dominant rookie seasons posted by Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson and Robert Griffin III -- especially since Manuel needs to first beat out Kevin Kolb for the starting job. Yet the metrics show there is a good chance Manuel could help the Bills field a top-10 offense in 2013 if he is the starter.

That may sound far-fetched at first glance, but the Bills were not far away from being a top 10 offense in yards per play last season. According to ESPN Stats & Information, Buffalo averaged 5.58 yards per play, a mark that ranked 13th in the league.

The primary reason for that ranking is a rushing attack that was one of the best in the NFL. Last year, Buffalo's blockers topped the league in the good blocking rate (GBR) metric with a 52.3 percent mark. (Note: GBR gauges how often the offense gives a ball carrier good run blocking, which is very roughly defined as plays when they do not allow the defense to disrupt a rush attempt.)

That dominant performance, coupled with C.J. Spiller's ability to take advantage of his line's prowess, made the Bills' rushing attack a potent one. Spiller ranked sixth in the league in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive a back is when given good blocking, and his 9.1-yard GBYPA total placed fourth among lead running backs (those with the most carries on their team). No back was given a higher GBR (53.9 percent of his rush attempts qualified as good blocking).

The offense also had some strong suits in the passing game. ESPN Stats & Information had Fitzpatrick ranked 10th in short pass yards per attempt (defined as passes thrown 10 or fewer yards downfield). That quality showing was due in part to the Bills' aforementioned run-blocking prowess, as Buffalo leaned heavily on a dose of screen passes to rack up those gains.

The Bills also have a top-flight vertical wideout, Steve Johnson, who averaged 22.2 yards per reception on throws 11 or more yards downfield (which is the definition of a vertical pass). That mark ranked him 16th out of the 36 players who had at least 20 vertical receptions last year.

Buffalo upgraded its receiving corps by adding WRs Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin via the draft. Woods' 2012 season was something of a drop-off from his 2011 campaign, but he ranked fifth in my pre-draft comparison of the top wide receivers in the 2013 NFL draft, and Goodwin provides a vertical threat.

All of these items show that Manuel has a lot of capable offensive talent around him, so the top-10 offense question really centers on whether he can produce better numbers than Fitzpatrick did last year.

In many ways, the bar for improvement is quite low, as Fitzpatrick ranked 27th in Total QBR last year (45.8); he had nine games with a Total QBR of under 50.0 and four games with a Total QBR of 31.8 or less. Since 50.0 is the median number for this statistic, Fitzpatrick clearly performed at a below-average level in half of his games.

His numbers start to look even worse once the short passes are taken out of the equation, as Fitzpatrick averaged a meager 8.85 yards per vertical pass attempt. For perspective, Brady Quinn (9.21), Matt Cassel (8.95) and Mark Sanchez (9.45) -- among the worst passers in the NFL last year -- all did better than Fitzpatrick in vertical YPA.

It isn't a given that Manuel will be able to top that figure, but he did place eighth in the nation in yards per attempt last year (8.76). That figure was higher than the YPA marks posted by Geno Smith and Matt Barkley, and Manuel didn't have the benefit of throwing to two dominant wide receivers as Smith (Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey) and Barkley (Woods and Marqise Lee) did.

As Gary Horton notes in this article, new Bills coach Doug Marrone's up-tempo West Coast offense will provide Manuel with an opportunity to use his athleticism to run the ball if nothing is available downfield.

While Manuel's rookie limitations will almost certainly preclude his moving the Bills' vertical pass numbers into an upper-tier range, even if he is able to move only the vertical numbers to a mediocre level, it will still be a significant plus for this offense and could be the steppingstone needed to vault this platoon into top-10 contention.
 

Skooby

Alone In My Zone
Supporter
Joined
Sep 30, 2012
Messages
25,167
Reputation
10,242
Daps
59,713
Reppin
The Cosmos

Bulls' Plan B is better than Plan A
Not getting Carmelo Anthony could be a blessing in disguise for the Bulls

After two seasons of injury-inflicted limbo, it's easy for a jaded NBA fan in Chicago to see this offseason as bittersweet. After winning more regular-season games than any team in the league during Tom Thibodeau's first two seasons as head coach, Chicago's vaunted depth fell victim to cap considerations and an injured knee. The Bulls made the playoffs each of the past two seasons and even won a postseason series, but it was the summer of 2014 that beckoned. This was going to be the time when the Bulls would not only welcome Derrick Rose back into the fold, but they'd be able to surround him with the star power that would propel Chicago into title contention.

The Bulls' offseason strategy drew some mixed reactions. The concern was that Chicago's contingency plan for missing out on Carmelo Anthony just wasn't sexy enough. By focusing on depth rather than star power, the Bulls risked getting stuck on the same plateau they were on before Rose's first knee injury. Good, but not great. It's a scenario we've seen before.

This has indeed been an epic offseason in the NBA, with top teams plummeting and new contenders taking aim at the crown. The two players who finished immediately behind Kevin Durant for tops in the league in wins above replacement (WARP) either changed teams, or soon will. Neither of those players -- LeBron James and Kevin Love -- will join Rose in Chicago. Instead, they will team up in Cleveland, setting up an eventual conference finals showdown with the Bulls that seems every bit as inevitable as the Miami-Indiana series was last season. Plan A didn't happen.

But the Bulls' Plan B included Pau Gasol successfully being wooed from the Lakers, Nikola Mirotic arriving from Spain and Kirk Hinrich sticking around. Aaron Brooks was added to back up Rose. Chicago re-created the depth plan that worked well before. That approach wasn't enough to overcome James in Miami, but there are compelling reasons to believe this time may be different.


Reasons to believe

A basic tenet of NBA analysis is that all teams exist to pursue championships, and strategies that seal a team off from that pursuit must be avoided. When Chicago signed Gasol, the fear was the Bulls had fallen into just such a strategy. But to avoid getting stuck, teams need to not only have a sturdy foundation in place, but they need to have upside on their roster beyond the core players. As the summer has progressed, it's become apparent that may be what's occurred in Chicago. The key developments:

Derrick Rose: Rose is the cornerstone, but after 10 subpar games in two years, he doesn't engender much optimism on the statistical front. His projection is not only less than half of Joakim Noah's, but it's lower than those of Mirotic and Jimmy Butler. Meanwhile, Rose is back on the court and drawing plaudits for his performance with Team USA. Rose was worth 16.6 WARP during his last healthy season. While his full recovery might eat into the production of his teammates, it would also considerably boost Chicago's already excellent forecast.

Joakim Noah: For all the caterwauling about Chicago missing out on a second star, we need to remember that Noah was a first-team, All-NBA center last season, the Defensive Player of the Year and ranked 10th in the league in WARP. Chicago's solid early projection is a product of Noah's excellence, and depth. He has become that missing star.

Nikola Mirotic: You want upside? Mirotic was MVP of a high-level European league at 22 years of age. He's long, with inside-outside skills, a reputation for unselfishness and a skill set that is ideally suited to work off Rose. His statistical translations are outstanding. Early SCHOENE has Mirotic at 5.2 WARP in just 25 forecasted minutes per game. That would make him the leading contender for Rookie of the Year.

Summer stars: We just finished watching Bulls first-rounder Doug McDermott light up the Las Vegas Summer League, and second-year wing Tony Snell play like a guy poised for a breakout sophomore season in the same circuit. In Mirotic and McDermott, the Bulls can feature two elite deep shooters who both have a number of value-added aspects to their arsenals. McDermott has the third-highest WARP projection among rookies, and that's in just 20 MPG. And if Snell's improvement is real, Chicago could have all 10 of its rotation players performing better than replacement.

San Antonio Spurs: No one can match the consistency and continuity of the Spurs. Still, San Antonio demonstrated that those traits along with selflessness, depth and coaching can trump star power and win championships. Given the max-level dollars Cleveland will be spending to keep its star trio intact, the Bulls should continue to have the depth and continuity that the Cavaliers will have to sacrifice. And while we're high on new Cavs coach Dave Blatt, Thibodeau is a proven commodity in Chicago.


New pecking order
Before the Love trade moved toward the realm of the real, Chicago appeared to be a bona fide Finals candidate, one of the five most improved teams in the league. The problem is by going LeBron-plus-one, a true powerhouse is forming in Cleveland. James, Love and Kyrie Irving alone accumulated 50 WARP between them a season ago, meaning that even if the rest of the Cleveland roster is merely replacement level, the Cavs would project to win 60 games. And this will be just the first season of Cleveland's new-found excellence. In effect, the vibe in the East could be the same as it's been, with Cleveland and Chicago replacing Miami and Indiana.

Let's be clear: The addition of Love makes Cleveland the clear favorite in the East, and probably in the NBA. The general lack of continuity on the Cavs' roster could be an issue that prevents them from getting past whichever power emerges from the West, and we all remember that it took a full season before the Heat really hit their stride with James. But that team did win its conference. The Bulls, meanwhile, are the clear-cut No. 2 team in the East, a clear rung below the Cavaliers. Yet there is no reason for Chicago to concede anything -- not that Thibodeau would ever let that happen anyway.

Chicago can't match the star power in Cleveland, so perhaps it was best not to try. Alternatively, the Bulls created a deep and versatile roster that combines the certainty of veterans and the upside of youth. The full range of the Bulls' potential outcomes means they haven't consigned themselves to the second tier by any means. In the end, a great new rivalry between Chicago and Cleveland should emerge -- one which may turn out to be more sweet than bitter for the Bulls.
 
Top