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[Jplaya2023]

Skooby, eggman come holla

 

[Skooby]

can someone post this please.

NBA - Where 2011-12 Miami Heat ranks among all-time NBA champs - ESPN

Ranking all-time NBA champions

For some, the natural instinct last June was to slap an asterisk on the Miami Heat's NBA championship. After all, it came in a lockout-shortened 66-game campaign, plus LeBron James and company didn't defeat one of the league's traditional glamour franchises -- namely, the Los Angeles Lakers -- in the Finals. In fact, at one point they were in a 2-1 hole against the Roy Hibbert-led Indiana Pacers, and also were pushed to the brink of elimination by the ancient Boston Celtics (an ill-timed injury to Chris Bosh didn't help in either regard). Their 16-7 record along the way to the title ranked only 40th out of the NBA's 63 all-time champions.

By most measures, then, the 2012 Heat were hardly among the most dominating title-winners in league history. Yet, at the same time, they might have been right up there with the most talented champs ever.

A team's inherent talent is, obviously, impossible to truly measure. But we can get a decent idea of how good a team was "on paper" by looking at the types of players on their roster, and how old those players were.

For instance, as a general rule NBA players peak around age 26, so a roster made up of All-Star or Hall of Fame-caliber players around that age would have to be considered an extremely talented team, regardless of how they actually played on the court. Meanwhile, another team made up of very young players, very old players, and/or players who didn't have especially good overall careers must be viewed as being less talented, even if they outperformed the former team when it came time to play the games.

Talent doesn't always lead to postseason success, of course, as anyone who watched the 2004 Dallas Mavericks can attest. That team's top seven playoff minute-earners included two surefire future Hall of Famers in their respective primes (25-year-old Dirk Nowitzki and 29-year-old Steve Nash), three more prime All-Stars (30-year-old Michael Finley, 27-year-olds Antoine Walker and Antawn Jamison), and two 23-year-old future serviceable pros (Josh Howard and Marquis Daniels). On paper, that's a formidable group of players. In reality, it's simply a team that lost a five-game first-round series to the Sacramento Kings.

So it's definitely not a given that on-paper talent automatically equals a championship-caliber team. But for what it's worth, we can try to calculate how theoretically good each team in NBA history should have been based on the amount of talent on hand. The stat we're using here is Basketball-Reference's Win Shares, which are calculated going back to 1947 and should serve our overall purpose of separating good players from average ones, and average ones from scrubs. The exact order of players isn't as important here as it is to sort them into large bins of general quality.

How it's calculated

At any rate, the first step is to determine how "good" a player's career was, maintaining the delicate balance between career totals and peak value. To this end, I used Doug Drinen's method for weighting seasons, which is simply to add 100 percent of the player's best season, plus 95 percent of his second-best season, plus 90 percent of his third-best season, and so forth. Under this methodology, the all-time leader is Wilt Chamberlain (185), followed by Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (174) and Michael Jordan (159), so it generally does a decent job of putting the best players at the top of the list.

For active players, however, we can't use their current weighted career value, because the book isn't completely written on their careers. Because of this, it's necessary to predict what their end-of-career weighted value will be from their age and current progress, and when we do this, the active leaders are LeBron James (164), Nowitzki (134), Kevin Garnett (133), Chris Paul (133), Tim Duncan (130), and Kobe Bryant (123). Again, the specific order can be arguable, but the main goal is to get general values that represent the overall quality of a player's career.

Heat measure up

Once we have a list of weighted career values for all players, the final step is to determine how good a player of a given quality should be at a given age, and then add those up for the regular players on a given team's roster. We can come up with an estimate of this for every player using a regression formula, and going back to the 2004 Mavericks we would see a top seven of Nowitzki (expected value of 14), Nash (11), Jamison (8), Finley (7), Walker (5), Howard (4), and Daniels (2), for a total of 51; weighted by postseason minutes, that team had an average expected value of 7.5, both of which ranked among the highest ever by a team that didn't win the championship.

Best NBA Champs "On Paper"

TEAM Top 7 Rk Wgtd Avg Rk
1. 1971 Milwaukee Bucks 56 1 8.4 1
2. 1984 Boston Celtics 54 3 8.1 3
3. 2012 Miami Heat 56 1 7.8 7
4. 1991 Chicago Bulls 52 5 8.1 4
5. 1992 Chicago Bulls 52 5 8.0 5
6. 1982 Los Angeles Lakers 54 3 7.7 8
6. 1967 Philadelphia 76ers 51 9 8.2 2
8. 1968 Boston Celtics 52 5 7.7 9
9. 1993 Chicago Bulls 51 9 7.8 6
10. 1961 Boston Celtics 52 5 7.4 13
11. 1963 Boston Celtics 51 9 7.5 10
12. 1988 Los Angeles Lakers 51 9 7.4 12
13. 1987 Los Angeles Lakers 51 9 7.2 17
13. 1964 Boston Celtics 50 15 7.4 11
15. 1981 Boston Celtics 51 9 7.2 20
16. 1965 Boston Celtics 48 18 7.3 15
17. 1959 Boston Celtics 50 15 7.1 21
17. 1986 Boston Celtics 47 20 7.2 16
19. 2008 Boston Celtics 48 18 7.1 22
20. 1962 Boston Celtics 45 27 7.3 14
21. 1966 Boston Celtics 47 20 7.1 23
21. 1960 Boston Celtics 46 24 7.2 19
23. 1985 Los Angeles Lakers 50 15 6.6 32
23. 1983 Philadelphia 76ers 47 20 7.0 27
25. 2004 Detroit Pistons 46 24 7.0 24
26. 1980 Los Angeles Lakers 45 27 7.0 25
27. 2010 Los Angeles Lakers 46 24 6.7 29
27. 2002 Los Angeles Lakers 45 27 7.0 26
29. 1972 Los Angeles Lakers 44 36 7.2 18
30. 2001 Los Angeles Lakers 45 27 7.0 28
31. 1989 Detroit Pistons 47 20 6.4 36
32. 1957 Boston Celtics 45 27 6.6 30
33. 1996 Chicago Bulls 45 27 6.6 33
34. 2009 Los Angeles Lakers 45 27 6.5 35
35. 2011 Dallas Mavericks 45 27 6.4 37
36. 1995 Houston Rockets 45 27 6.3 38
37. 1969 Boston Celtics 43 42 6.6 31
38. 2006 Miami Heat 44 36 6.2 39
39. 2003 San Antonio Spurs 44 36 6.2 41
40. 1973 New York Knicks 44 36 6.1 42
41. 1994 Houston Rockets 44 36 6.1 43
42. 2000 Los Angeles Lakers 41 47 6.6 34
43. 2005 San Antonio Spurs 43 42 6.2 40
44. 1958 St. Louis Hawks 44 36 5.8 49
45. 1970 New York Knicks 43 42 6.1 45
46. 1974 Boston Celtics 42 45 6.0 46
46. 1990 Detroit Pistons 41 47 6.1 44
48. 1997 Chicago Bulls 40 49 5.9 47
49. 1954 Minneapolis Lakers 42 45 5.7 53
50. 1956 Philadelphia Warriors 38 52 5.8 48
51. 1953 Minneapolis Lakers 39 50 5.7 51
52. 1952 Minneapolis Lakers 38 52 5.8 50
53. 2007 San Antonio Spurs 39 50 5.6 54
54. 1999 San Antonio Spurs 37 54 5.7 52
55. 1998 Chicago Bulls 37 54 5.5 55
56. 1955 Syracuse Nationals 37 54 5.2 56
57. 1979 Seattle Supersonics 37 54 5.2 57
58. 1978 Washington Bullets 34 58 4.9 58
59. 1975 Golden State Warriors 34 58 4.8 60
60. 1976 Boston Celtics 33 60 4.9 59
61. 1977 Portland Trail Blazers 27 61 3.9 61

But back to the Heat. Last year, Miami's rotation featured James at age 27 (expected value of 18), Chris Bosh at 27 (11) and a 30-year-old Dwyane Wade (10), plus 25-year-old Mario Chalmers (5) and three solid players over the age of 30 in Shane Battier (4), Udonis Haslem (4), and Mike Miller (4). In total, their top seven added up to 56 points of expected value, which is actually tied with the 1971 Milwaukee Bucks for the best of any NBA champ.

That '71 Bucks team boasted 23-year-olds Abdul-Jabbar (19 expected value) and Bob Dandridge (7), plus the still-dangerous 32-year-old legend Oscar Robertson (13) and a trio of solid players in Jon McGlocklin (5), Lucius Allen (5), and Bob Boozer (4). They lost only twice all postseason and put together one of the most dominant playoff runs in league history, so tying that team puts the 2012 Heat are in pretty good company. And in addition to their impressive top seven, the minute-weighted average for Miami's entire playoff roster was 7.8, which ranked seventh behind only the 1971 Bucks, 1967 76ers, 1984 Celtics, and the 1991/'92/'93 Bulls.

In other words, by this measure of aggregate team talent at least, the 2012 Miami Heat were in fact one of the best teams on paper ever to win an NBA title.

That wouldn't have meant much if they didn't fulfill their potential and actually win the 16 playoff games required to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy -- after all, the 2011 Finals-losing version of the Heat was arguably even more talented, with a minute-weighted expected value average of 8.5 -- but it is a feather in the cap for a team that, at first glance, appears to be one of the more mediocre NBA champs ever.

 

[Da_Eggman]

Detroit Pistons: 2012-13 Forecast
Overview
Yes, Detroit is still in the league, but I can understand if you'd forgotten that fact at some point in the past half decade. Strapped by two horrific free-agent decisions and an ownership change off the court, and without a doubt the most boring team in the league on it, the Pistons only began to emerge from their shell in the past year once the sale of the team to Tom Gores was completed.

With that out of the way, we're starting to see signs of life. Greg Monroe looks like a star in the making, Rodney Stuckey is a plus, Jonas Jerebko had a nice year, and there's finally light at the end of their looooooong salary cap tunnel ... Yes, Virginia, the Pistons will have cap space next summer.

HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS

W-L: 25-41 (Pythagorean W-L: 20-46)
Offensive Efficiency: 97.8 (29th)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (25th))
Pace Factor: 91.7 (27th)
Highest PER: Greg Monroe (22.09)

Yet it's still amazing to see how much the decisions to pay Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva three years ago continue to hamper the team. The Pistons had to give up a first-round pick just to wash their hands of Gordon, essentially selling a likely lottery pick, while Villanueva's continued presence owes mostly to Detroit waiting for the optimal time for his inevitable amnesty.

Other positives have emerged beneath the scenes. Joe Dumars seems re-energized by this whole GM thing after a half-decade run of baffling awfulness that began with the Chauncey Billups-Allen Iverson trade and culminated in the twin disasters of Gordon and Villanueva. The Pistons have added analytics staff, patiently avoided bad contracts, and generally started looking the part of a real basketball organization again.

Dumars even was able to keep a head coach around for more than a few hours, as Frank begins his second season with something resembling job security. Ask around and the reviews you get of him are all over the place, but he was able to keep the Pistons on track after a brutal start a year ago and the team showed some genuine improvement after the break.

Now, they just need to win a few games. Unfortunately, you might have to wait a bit on that front. But at least there are tangible signs of progress.



2011-12 Recap

Greg MonroeTim Fuller/US PresswireGreg Monroe gives the Pistons hope of getting up off the floor in the years ahead.

Well, it got ugly fast: Detroit was 4-20 after 24 games, with the team vying to be the league's worst defensive club. However, they turned things around in the second half of the year, going 21-21 in the final 42 games and playing respectable defense from the midway point onward.

The offense, alas, was never respectable. Despite the huge progress made by second-year power forward Greg Monroe -- who finished the year fifth in the Eastern Conference in PER, believe it or not -- the Pistons just didn't have enough weapons around him. Rookie point guard Brandon Knight was a disappointment, center Ben Wallace couldn't score if you left him alone with a Nerf hoop, and with the exception of Gordon, there just wasn't enough shooting anywhere.

Personnel disappointments played a role. Forward Austin Daye, expected to provide some of that shooting, suffered a brutal campaign that saw him yanked from the rotation, and Villanueva was never a factor. Instead, veteran retread Damien Wilkins played 922 minutes off the bench for a rebuilding team, in one of the year's more puzzling personnel developments, and averaged a robust 8.3 points per 40 minutes.

Overall Detroit finished 29th in offensive efficiency, helped along by ranking 27th in 3-piont frequency and 28th in turnover rate. Those two factors were related -- with no shooting threats, Detroit kept trying to attack the rim, driving into crowds and yielding numerous miscues. The only time the Pistons deviated was in late-game situations, where they inexplicably kept feeding Tayshaun Prince to shoot contested 20-footers.

The other factor was how hard this was to watch. The one thing that hasn't changed in Detroit in half a decade is the overwhelming, gouge-your-eyes-out boredom inflicted by watching the team. The Pistons were once again near the bottom of the league in pace factor, spending much of the game with guards dribbling out the shot clock while going no place in particular. While their No. 27 ranking made them look like a freewheeling, run-and-gun outfit compared to previous seasons, the visual was unchanged. Detroit, once again, effectively had four shooting guards and no point guards.

Top rate of opp. assisted baskets, 2011-12
Team Ast/FGA
Detroit .624
Golden State .620
New Jersey .615
Cleveland .602
Denver .601

Defensively, Detroit's main characteristic was all the assists it gave up. Detroit opponents assisted on 62.4 percent of its baskets, the highest figure in the league; surprisingly, this happened even though the Pistons didn't give up an inordinate number of 3-pointers. The problem was the 2-pointers: Opponents shredded them for a .492 mark inside the arc, the sixth-worst mark in the league, suggesting either that nobody was "helping the helper" on opposing drives or that they were too focused on not leaving corner 3-point shooters. Or both.

Although the Pistons' record over the final 42 games was encouraging, by other measures Detroit was much worse than its win-loss record. The Pistons won 5.2 games more than expected by their scoring margin, the second-highest figure in the league, so the final record of 25-41 is a bit misleading. Moreover, they had outstanding health -- only Rodney Stuckey (11 games) and Gordon (14) missed much time.



Offseason Moves

Andre DrummondFernando Medina/Getty ImagesCoach Lawrence Frank likely will have some lessons to offer Pistons teenager Andre Drummond.
Detroit's moves were future-focused, bringing in five rookies this year and unloading Gordon in a cap move. The Pistons look desperately thin in the backcourt, with no real shooting on the perimeter except second-rounder Kim English, but with 15 already on the roster, it's unlikely we'll see another move to address that. They aren't playing for this year anyway. Check out these moves:

Let Wallace go, drafted Andre Drummond, Khris Middleton, and Kim English: The big coup here is Drummond, a high-risk, high-reward type who potentially gives Detroit a huge big man who can occupy the middle and free up Greg Monroe from some of the poundings he takes at the 5. Drummond has some warts, however, and is seen more as a project than an immediate contributor. Looking at this roster, he may start anyway. Obviously, Drummond can't be any worse than Wallace offensively, but he might be just as bad from the free throw line. Defensive is the open question, largely dependent on how often he brings his A game.

Second-rounders English and Middleton may get chances to play, especially English. The Pistons don't have a ton of wing depth and badly need more shooting; English, though limited in other respects is an excellent shooter.

Let Damien Wilkins go, signed Kyle Singler for three years, $3 million: Singler was a second-round pick in 2011 that the Pistons stashed in Europe for a year. I didn't like him then and don't now; he had a poor season in Europe (translated PER: 7.37) and the Pistons already have more combo forwards than they know what to do with. It's a cap-friendly dollar number, but all three years are guaranteed -- which is a bit unusual for a second-rounder.

Let Vernon Macklin go, signed Slava Kravstov for three years, $4.9 million: I didn't agree with the decision to let Macklin walk, as he had a fairly positive rookie season for a late-second round pick. But the interest in Kravstov is understandable. He comes from a low-level European league but posted good numbers there and his size is an obvious asset. The Pistons didn't have a true center a year ago, but between Kravstov and Drummond, they now have two seven-footers to help protect Monroe inside.

Traded Gordon and a future first-rounder to Charlotte for Corey Maggette: Here's the logic: Gordon had two guaranteed years left; Maggette had one. So the Pistons paid off Charlotte with a first-round pick (top-14 protected this year, top-8 in 2014, top-1 in 2015) just to wash their hands of the $13.2 million Gordon was owed in 2013-14 and create cap room next summer. Obviously, this was an expensive price to pay: Detroit likely gives up a pick in the 10-12 range in 2014, and perhaps much worse later.

As far as the basketball stuff goes, Maggette has lost a lot of his explosiveness over the past two years and is likely to have a fairly limited impact, plus he'll miss half the year with assorted injuries. On paper, he's the backup shooting guard, but in practice I'm not sure he'll play much.



2012-13 Outlook

Rodney StuckeyGreg M. Cooper/US PresswireAfter running the point, Rodney Stuckey's move to the wing last season improved his numbers.

The Pistons are starting to turn the corner, but you have to understand the size of the mess they're cleaning up to appreciate why it's taking so long. Detroit didn't have cap space this year and couldn't make any free agent moves, and nobody is clamoring to come here just for the sun and beaches. The Pistons big "add" was a project center who may not contribute much this season, and their other major move was paying a team to take one of their players.

Meanwhile, the roster still looks overloaded with combo forwards and shoot-first point guards who pound the shot clock into oblivion. It's glaringly lacking in terms of shooting without Gordon, and now looks very iffy depth-wise in the backcourt.

The good news it that Detroit has a genuinely good building block in Monroe, and that the two huge seven-footers the Pistons added should allow him to play more at power forward and spare him some of the physical mismatches that gave him trouble as a center.

The bad news? There's a lot of that, actually. While Stuckey is a good player and Knight may well improve sharply in his second season -- many young point guards do, although Knight wasn't particularly impressive as a rookie -- there's still not a ton of talent in the cupboard. Monroe and Stuckey are the only players who project to have PERs above the league average, and defensively they're likely to take their lumps again.

Overall, Detroit got big breaks both with close games and health last season, and still finished well out of the money in a shortened season. With more normal fortune and a longer slate of games, I'm not sure their win total will change much.

Prediction: 27-55, 5th in Central Division, 13th in Eastern Conference

 

[Da_Eggman]

2012-13 Forecast: Dallas Mavericks
Overview

Just because it didn't work doesn't mean it was a terrible decision.

When discussing the Mavs' failed title defense, let's start there. They made a conscious decision to let Tyson Chandler walk, retool around one or two superstar free agents in the summer of 2012 and make another go at it.

This was a calculated risk, and it failed. But if you went in assuming something on the realm of 50-50 or 40-60 odds at pulling this off, it's tough to condemn the process just because of the outcome.

This strategy represented an understanding of the context of the 2011 championship, a feat of underrated difficultly in the heat of the moment. The Mavs realized they were a spectacular example of lightning being caught in a bottle and that even if they had brought back the same players, they were highly unlikely to find themselves in the same position again.

So Dallas rolled the dice that it could remain an elite team more sustainably with the help of a Dwight Howard or a Deron Williams and that they had enough juice to stay competitive in the meantime. The latter point depends largely on what you think about "competitive" -- the Mavs had a fine season by the standards of most, but defending champions generally expect to win a playoff game or two.

All of this would have been gleefully accepted if Williams or Howard landed on their doorstep, but neither did. Plan B is far less sexy. The Mavs are left probing the atmosphere for somebody willing to accept their trove of cap space and rescue them from another one-and-done. Meanwhile, another precious year of Dirk Nowitzki's prime wilts on the vine.

HOLLINGER'S PLAYER PROFILES

Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Mavs' roster. Player Profiles Insider

Again, it wasn't necessarily a terrible decision. Paying Chandler would have led to its own problems, and that wouldn't have made their other guys any younger.

That, in the big picture, might be Dallas' more pressing problem. After years of churning on the title-chase treadmill, the Mavericks have no young stars coming up through the pipeline the way, say, Josh Howard and Devin Harris did in previous renditions. Stealing Chandler in an all-time LOL trade with Charlotte pushed that issue to the side for a year, but it never really went away.



2011-12 Recap

Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn MarionRon Jenkins/Fort Worth Star-Telegram/MCT/Getty ImagesShawn Marion and Co. will need to help Dirk Nowitzki, who's battling a troublesome right knee.

The defining element of Dallas' season had little to do with Chandler's absence. Look at the stats and you'd think it was J.J. Barea that was the difference-maker. The Mavs roared through the 2011 postseason with one of the greatest offensive onslaughts in playoff history, but in 2011-12, they couldn't find the bucket. Dallas finished 20th in offensive efficiency, devolving into a jump-shooting offense that rarely scored inside. The Mavs were 27th in free throw rate and 28th in offensive rebound rate; basically everybody took jumpers.

It didn't help that Nowitzki got off to a slow start, but the problems went much deeper. The vets started showing their age, most notably Jason Kidd, leaving Dirk with a much less imposing arsenal around him. No other Mav except Brandan Wright -- who was 10th on the team in minutes -- had a PER above 16. Moreover, the closest thing to a second star on the team, Lamar Odom, loafed through a disastrous season that featured the largest one-year PER decline in recorded history.

HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS

W-L: 36-30 (Pythagorean W-L: 36-30)
Offensive Efficiency: 101.0 (20th)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.7 (8th)
Pace Factor: 93.5 (16th)
Highest PER: Dirk Nowitzki (21.81)

Even their one positive offensive stat was really a negative: The Mavs had the fewest shots blocked of any team, at 4.9 percent of their attempts. The reason was that they were shooting almost entirely jump shots.

Defensively, Dallas' depth, versatility and masterful use of zone defenses helped paper over the absence of Chandler. The Mavs finished eighth in efficiency, providing a reasonable facsimile of their championship season on this end. It was the offensive decline that killed them.

Look deep enough and some positive stories emerged. Wright was a scrap-heap find at backup center, Delonte West was a solid two-way winger at a bargain price, Ian Mahinmi turned into a legitimate rotation player, and Nowitzki played like the Dirk of old in the second half of the season. But their most talented young player, Rodrigue Beaubois, scuffled through another disappointing campaign, and 2010 first-rounder Dominique Jones failed to gain traction.



Offseason Moves

Elton Brand Jerome Miron/US PresswireElton Brand is one of the key pieces the Mavericks are counting on after a busy offseason.

Once it couldn't spend on stars, Dallas did the next best thing, inking a bunch of halfway decent players to short-term contracts and keeping its powder dry for next summer. Give the Mavericks props, as they were creative and found some outstanding value to keep this roster afloat for another season. But in the big picture, this still was a salvage job.

Traded Lamar Odom and a Kardashian to be named later to the Clippers for rights to Tadija Dragicevic and cash: Sadly, Odom tanked so badly that the Mavs couldn't even get a draft pick for him, and had to settle for dumping his remaining salary on the Clippers. Dallas also had to send the rights to Shan Foster to Utah as part of this deal, but he and Dragicevic were superfluous. The Mavs at least got some cash for their trouble, partly offsetting the money Odom stole from them last season.

Amnestied Brendan Haywood, signed Chris Kaman for one year, $8 million: Despite the hopeful talk out of Big D that it might be able to trade Haywood, this was a matter of if, not when. Wiping Haywood's money off the books enabled the other cap moves by the Mavs this summer, most notably the Kaman signing. In general I'm not a big Kaman guy; he's a deceptively bad low-post player because he turns it over so much. That said, his pick-and-pop game could be a real weapon on this team, and I suspect the Mavs are smart enough to realize he's not a go-to guy on the block. By any measure, he'll be a huge upgrade on Haywood, and he comes on a risk-free one-year deal.

Drafted Jared Cunningham, Bernard James and Jae Crowder: The latest hope for some youth and vitality, these three will try to add some energy and ball hawking off the bench. Cunningham might have been a slight reach late in the first round, but he is an upside pick as an athletic winger who could be potent if he refines his skills. Crowder is a defensive pest who could pay immediate dividends, although his offensive game is well behind his D, and was a good grab early in the second. James, a 27-year-old frontcourt enforcer with a great backstory, seemed like more of a reach.

Let Jason Terry go, signed O.J. Mayo for two years, $8.2 million: Dallas' cap realities dictated this mild downgrade from a great midrange shooter to a merely good one. That said, Mayo is younger, and you'll probably have to stare pretty closely to find big differences between the outputs of these two. The hope in Dallas is that Mayo has a good year and opts out of the second season of his deal, because if he stays, it may mess up their cap plans.

Won rights to Elton Brand in amnesty auction for $2.1 million: Brand has declined, but I mean, $2.1 million? This was an absolute steal, and it comes with zero risk since it's only for one year. Brand was productive at the defensive end last season and can likely play as a 5 alongside Nowitzki during crunch time, plus his pick-and-pop game should fit this system. The lone, slight downside is that he can't be traded.

Let Jason Kidd go, signed-and-traded Ian Mahinmi to Indiana for Darren Collison and Dahntay Jones: Though not quite on par with the Chandler deal as far as heists go, this was a heck of a deal for Dallas. Mahinmi was redundant with the development of Brandan Wright and additions of Brand and Kaman, and the Mavs needed a starting point guard once Kidd and Terry walked.

They not only got one, but they got him on -- you guessed it -- a one-year deal, as Collison is a restricted free agent in 2013. Better yet, his cap hold is low enough that Dallas may be able to do their free-agent shopping next summer and still keep him. The one worry with Collison is his lack of court vision, which may hinder his ability to play pick-and-pop with Dallas' bigs. Jones' final year at $2.9 million had to be swallowed to take Collison, but no worries -- Dallas could use another feisty wing defender, especially given West's injury proneness.



2012-13 Outlook

MavericksAP Photo/LM OteroWelcome to Dallas.

The Mavs managed to keep the ship upright with a flurry of clever moves after Plan A didn't work out, which will keep them relevant for another season. With that said, their roster looks more like a fringe playoff team than a real contender. Nowitzki is the one genuine star, and the team that surrounds him is quite deep. It is not, unfortunately, particularly talented at the top of the lineup. Dirk is the only starter with a projected PER above the league average.

Despite having one of the greatest offensive players in history, Dallas is likely to finish below the league average in offensive efficiency again. Its best shot at avoiding this fate is a breakout season from one of the young guards -- Collison, Mayo or Beaubois -- but their respective employers each waited fruitlessly the past few seasons for that same leap. Chances are, it's not happening. It would also help if at least one of them became a competent passer, especially with the quality of jump-shooting bigs on this team. Again, don't hold your breath.

Defensively, however, the Mavs should continue to frustrate opponents. Collison and West are pests, Brand is seriously underrated at this end, and Kaman provides a legit 5 to replace Haywood. Moreover, they still have one of the best and most creative coaches in basketball in Rick Carlisle, and he can be counted on to muck up games and confuse opponents with his schemes.

Nonetheless, the biggest reason for optimism in Dallas is that they've kept the powder dry for a midseason blockbuster. Should somebody like Chris Paul or Josh Smith start pining for greener pastures, the Mavs may yet bank on their post-Chandler strategy. It's also possible they go in the opposite direction come the trade deadline. Dumping Marion, in particular, would clear $9 million for their summer 2013 shopping spree. Vince Carter ($3 million), who was surprisingly guaranteed for two more seasons this summer, is another potential exile.

Meanwhile, the road between those extremes is pure triage: One that maintains a competitive team that can possibly return to the playoffs, but also portends a quick exit if and when they get there. Throw in Dirk's knee problems in training camp, and they may be on the outside looking in.

Prediction: 42-40, 3rd in Southwest Division, 9th in Western Conference

 

[Da_Eggman]

Utah Jazz: 2012-13 ForecastOverview

There's a mile-wide gap between "having a chance to do big things" and actually doing big things. Having said that: The Jazz have a chance to do some big things.

On paper, no team is better set up for the future. The Jazz have four talented young players, all of whom are on rookie contracts and all of whom play different positions. The only spot not represented among that group is point guard, the easiest position to fill.

And otherwise, the Jazz are almost completely unencumbered contract-wise. They have two hugely productive frontcourt players on the final year of their respective contracts in Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap, have other veterans on expiring or nearly expiring deals and could have as much as $30 million in cap space entering this summer.
HOLLINGER'S PLAYER PROFILES

Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Jazz's roster. Player Profiles Insider
Additionally, they've put themselves in good shape by hiring the well-respected Dennis Lindsey from San Antonio to be their new general manager, with former GM Kevin O'Connor moving into an oversight role.

Unfortunately, the term "cap space" has a very different meaning for the Utahs of the world than it does for the New Yorks and Miamis, which is why there's a good chance we see the Jazz use it to do something other than sign players to big contracts. They have more than $40 million in expiring contracts, which presents some very interesting trade chips, and they're also sitting on a potential lottery pick from Golden State (top-six protected).

Regardless, the brightness of Utah's future depends more than anything on four youngsters: Derrick Favors, Gordon Hayward, Alec Burks and Enes Kanter. Each has shown flashes of potential stardom, but none is a fully-formed star and there's no guarantee any of them will be. Of the group, Favors is the one who showed the most star potential so far; in fact his development late last season was so rapid that it sets a scenario in which the Jazz might trade Jefferson or Millsap just to clear more minutes for him.
STAGE SET FOR NEW JAZZ AGE

Chad Ford The Utah Jazz have young talent and future cap room. Will they be able to capitalize? Chad Ford Insider
Utah's present is interesting as well -- this should once again be a decent team that contends for one of the West's final playoff spots after last season's surprising surge to the No. 8 seed. But Jazz fans should be watching two factors more intently: first, obviously, how the four young players progress, and second, how Ty Corbin evolves in his third season on the job. While they finished strongly last season, his overall campaign was fairly rocky. Inherited coaches tend not to stay on the job long when a new GM arrives, so he'll need to show he can move Utah past its Sloan-era stuff and make more coherent personnel decisions.



2011-12 Recap

Al Jefferson Russ Isabella/US PresswireAl Jefferson's turnover rate of 4.7 last season was an historic low when factoring in his usage rate.
It was your typical Utah season on many levels, as the Jazz exhibited virtually every trait that most older Utahns now can recite by heart: an insanely high foul rate, a very high rebound rate, lots of free throws and only a rudimentary understanding of where the 3-point line is and how it might benefit them.

One other thing that stood out, however, is that Corbin, in his first season as head coach, favored his veterans to a near-comical extent. The most notable manifestation was his decision to start Raja Bell and Josh Howard on the wings, even though Bell was plainly finished and Howard had seen much better days as well. This maneuver kept the vastly better Hayward as a reserve for much of the year and left first-rounder Burks as a fringe fourth wing player. Playing with three other starters who had strongly positive plus-minus numbers, both Bell and Howard still managed to land in the negatives.
HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS

W-L: 36-30 (Pythagorean W-L: 35-31)
Offensive Efficiency: 103.7 (7th)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (20th)
Pace Factor: 93.9 (13th)
Highest PER: Al Jefferson (22.88)
A more humorous twist came midway through the year, when Bell and Corbin began feuding, even though Corbin was basically the only thing keeping Bell in an NBA lineup. When eventually injuries knocked Bell and Howard out, the Jazz hit another gear with Hayward starting, Burks playing more and Paul Millsap occasionally featuring in a monstrous frontcourt with Jefferson and Favors.

The powerful frontcourt was the centerpiece of a surprisingly efficient offense, thanks to Jefferson's ability to create shots with virtually no cost in turnovers. The Jazz had the league's seventh-best turnover rate, a shocking development for a team that scored nearly all its points in the paint or on post-ups. Thanks to their frontcourt muscle (which also included Favors and Kanter), Utah also had the league's second-best offensive rebound rate, and between that and the low turnover rate, the Jazz were fourth in shot attempts per possession.

They had a high 2-point percentage and drew lots of fouls, too. So what held them back? The fact that they scored entirely in 2-point increments. Only 15.3 percent of Utah's shots were 3s, the second-lowest figure in the league and an awful one for a team with a dominant post player. The Jazz made only 32.2 percent of their triples, ranking them 27th, and of note was how rarely they took the 3 from the best spot on the floor, the corner: The Jazz took only 168 all season, according to NBA.com's advanced stats tool, about half the league average and more than 30 fewer than every other team except Charlotte.

Some may point out that the Jazz also had few players capable of making the 3, so the two problems go hand in hand. Nonetheless, players like Hayward, Bell and C.J. Miles should have had more easy looks from the corner than they had, and this is an area the Jazz need to improve going forward.

Defensively, Corbin stayed loyal to the Sloan-era mentality of fouling first and asking questions later, although one might consider it slight progress that they were "only" 28th in opponent free throw rate. Even aside from that, this wasn't a particularly good defense, ranking 22nd in opponent 2-point field goal percentage and middling-to-poor at everything else except rebounding. But throw in the fouls, and Utah finished only 20th in defensive efficiency.

The good news here is that Favors showed monstrous potential at this end late in the season, and the other three kids got better as the year went on. But this is another area in which Corbin needs to prove himself, because Utah can't realistically contend for anything important fouling this frequently.



Offseason Moves

JazzMelissa Majchrzak/Getty ImagesThe Jazz added ex-Clippers Randy Foye and Mo Williams to bolster their backcourt.

Other than Lindsey, the Jazz's biggest offseason moves were to address their shooting deficiencies and the need for a wing stopper. Utah also has one piece of unfinished business regarding Bell, with whom they're working on a buyout.

Traded Devin Harris to Atlanta for Marvin Williams: I wasn't crazy about this move because the Jazz should have been able to extract a draft pick in return for taking on the additional year on Williams' contract. Basketball-wise, however, this improves them. Williams is a decent small forward who can space the floor reasonably well and guard opposing 3s; as such, he fills a glaring need on the Jazz roster. (Aside: This is if you presume Hayward is a 2. Personally, I think he's better as a 3 and would have rather seen the Jazz add a pure 2 to play next to him, but that's nitpicking.)

Traded rights to Tadija Dragicevic and cash to the Clippers for Mo Williams and rights to Shan Foster: Here's the backstory: Utah had a $10 million trade exception lying around from the previous winter's trade of Mehmet Okur to New Jersey (a masterful unburdening of dead weight that somehow netted them a 2015 second-round pick in return), and thus were able to take Williams into it pretty much for free when the Clippers needed to create a salary slot for Lamar Odom. Williams is a great fit in Utah because he provides the shooting this team craves, as well as a caretaker point guard who can get them into their stuff -- that's all they need, given that they mostly post up. I'm not sure he's a better player than Devin Harris, but he seems to be a better fit given their needs.

Signed Randy Foye for one year, $2.5 million: This wasn't a bad play, all things considered; Foye is small for a wing, but he can shoot spot-up jumpers and is capable of playing point guard in a pinch -- something that might need to happen given that Jamaal Tinsley and Earl Watson are the other point guards. With a one-year deal, it's risk-free, too.

Re-signed Jeremy Evans for three years, $5 million: Evans is a weird player -- he has good per-minute stats, but his only functional offensive maneuver appears to be the alley-oop, and his rail-thin frame is a major limitation defensively. As such, Utah's approach was probably the most sensible one: Lock him up cheaply for a while and see if he becomes a worthwhile rotation player.

Let Josh Howard go, drafted Kevin Murphy: I'm not a fan of Murphy, who had fairly poor athletic numbers (blocks, steals, rebounds) even against a low level of college competition, and a senior-year jump in 3-point percentage that looks to be an outlier. If he surprises, it will be because he proves the 3-point jump was a genuine improvement and not a one-year fluke.



2012-13 Outlook

Paul MillsapRuss Isabella/US PresswireAn undersized 4, Paul Millsap might be the most underrated player in the league.

The Jazz are an up-and-coming young team that made the playoffs last season, so one might assume that, at a minimum, they'll make it again. They might, but it won't be simple. The Jazz indeed played very well at the end of last season, but they also benefited from tremendous health for their best players and the bizarre fact that their only two serious injuries actually helped them by eliminating underperformers.

The Jazz have other issues going on outside of that. Several players are playing for contracts, and the possibility of a trade involving Jefferson or Millsap looms. Also, the backcourt depth is a potential issue, especially if Mo Williams -- who has missed at least a dozen games in seven of his nine seasons -- can't stay on the floor.

The two things to like, on the other hand, are that a healthy Jazz team would likely be better in the two areas that plagued them most a year ago: defense and 3-point shooting. Mo Williams and Foye give them some genuine knockdown shooters on the perimeter, and Hayward should be better as well. Defensively, another year of experience for their young players, increased playing time for Favors and the addition of Marvin Williams should all spell an improvement.

They'll need it, though, because there's no guarantee their best players will glide through the regular season injury-free again. Additionally, any defensive improvement will be marginal if Corbin can't change their approach from the mad-hacking system of the past decade-plus into a more sensible approach based on eliminating high-percentage opportunities (such as free throws, for instance). Similarly, the added shooting will be of a lot more benefit if Corbin can help them make use of the heretofore abandoned short corner.

Taking a step back and looking at last season's top eight in the West, I think that Minnesota is likely to join the group, which means somebody else has to fall out. The two most likely candidates are Dallas and Utah, which tied for the conference's seventh and eighth spots last season. It's a close call, and I had Utah out until Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki started having knee problems. Now I'm thinking the Jazz just squeeze in.

Prediction: 44-38, 4th in Northwest Division, tied 7th in Western Conf.

 

[Da_Eggman]

Chicago Bulls: 2012-13 Forecast
Overview

Turns out that the biggest threat to Chicago's title hopes wasn't the Miami Heat, but rather two other little-discussed threats: Derrick Rose's knee ligaments and Jerry Reinsdorf's wallet.

Chicago was the East's top seed despite an injury-plagued season from Rose, but when he blew out his knee in the first round of the playoffs, Chicago's offense never recovered. He's expected to miss most of the current season too, although we may see a late-season cameo, so the best-case scenario is that Chicago's title hopes are on hold for a year.

But it might be longer given Reinsdorf's stance toward the luxury tax. The Bulls have never paid it and apparently have no intention to; as a result, they refused to match an offer sheet to Omer Asik, and either cut or gave away three other important members of last season's hugely productive second unit.

HOLLINGER'S PLAYER PROFILES

Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Bulls' roster. Player Profiles Insider

The scary part is that the Bulls are still hurtling toward their financial cliff. Restricted free agent Taj Gibson is due for a major payday next summer, one that may result in the Bulls using the amnesty provision on Carlos Boozer to make ends meet. The non-guaranteed deal of Richard Hamilton also may fall under the ax, if he hasn't been traded by then.

Of course, this is all speculative. What Chicago has done to date can easily be defended; it's the owner's reputation that has everyone worried. For starters, the Bulls are still over the tax by about $3 million, although they could easily trade their way under during the season. Even if they do, that might not be such a bad idea if they plan on going over the threshold in future seasons, as it would push back when the Bulls would be subject to the league's "repeater" penalties.

Moreover, the Bulls aren't not be in bad shape in other respects. Their other best players, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng and Gibson, all are 27 or younger, and there may be more help on the way once Euro-stash pick Nikola Mirotic and 2012 first-rounder Marquis Teague are ready.

In the short term, the good news for Chicago is there is still enough talent on hand to field a very competitive team. The Bulls went 18-9 without Rose last season, and their two most identifiable characteristics -- manic defense and prolific rebounding -- had little to do with their floor general. Nonetheless, the playoffs showed how much harder it is for Chicago to sustain a cohesive offensive attack without him. It will be even harder after the Bulls made several secondary cuts.

The net result is a team that several fan bases would be glad to have, especially if Tom Thibodeau can keep it playing hair-on-fire defense, but one that will likely disappoint those who witnessed the past two campaigns.

2011-12 Recap

Derrick RoseJonathan Daniel/Getty ImagesWhen Derrick Rose hit the floor during the playoff opener, so did Chicago's hopes.

Some wondered whether Thibs' players could maintain their intensity over a second season, especially one as grinding as the lockout campaign. Man, did they ever. Despite not having Rose for half the year and battling various and sundry other injuries (Hamilton missed half the year, Deng was nagged by a wrist problem most of the season, and C.J. Watson also missed significant time), Chicago's intensity never flagged.
HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS

W-L: 50-16 (Pythagorean W-L: 54-12)
Offensive Efficiency: 104.5 (5th)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.3 (1st)
Pace Factor: 91.8 (26th)
Highest PER: Derrick Rose (23.10)

This was most obvious at the defensive end, where the Bulls just suffocated opponents with their persistent help, active bigs and refusal to concede a 3-point shot. The latter is an underrated factor in their excellence: Only 17.3 percent of Chicago's shots against were 3-point tries, by far the lowest rate in the league (see chart), and it's why the Bulls led the league in opponent TS percentage.

Of course, the Bulls also led the league in opponent 2-point percentage, so you were screwed either way, and they cleaned up the misses by boarding 74.3 precent of missed shots. Perhaps the most amazing part is that, as hard as they played, Chicago had the third-lowest foul rate in the league, with only .236 opponent free throw attempts per field goal attempt. The only thing Chicago didn't do well was force turnovers.

Lowest opponent 3-point rate, 2011-12
Team Opp 3A/FGA
Chicago .173
Philadelphia .202
Phoenix .205
Houston .209
San Antonio .210
League average .226

Causes for Chicago's defensive dominance weren't hard to find. Noah, Gibson and Asik are three of the best frontcourt defenders in basketball, while Deng is an ace wing defender and Brewer a vastly underrated pest off the bench. Throw in Thibodeau's schemes and preparation and a 12-deep roster, and there were few weak links to attack (coughBoozercough).

Offensively, the Bulls were average in most respects but had two characteristics that lifted them above the masses. First, while they didn't shoot 3s often, they shot them well: Chicago was fourth in the league at 37.5 percent, an impressive performance for a team with only one elite shooter (Korver).

Best Offensive Rebound Rate, 2011-12
Team Ast/FGA
Chicago 32.6
Utah 30.2
Memphis 29.8
L.A. Clippers 29.5
Indiana 29.2

But mostly, the Bulls were about quantity over quality. Chicago was phenomenally good on the offensive glass, retrieving 32.6 percent of its missed shots; for comparison, the Bulls' offensive rebound rate was nearly double that of Boston's. What made this particularly amazing is that the Bulls appeared to suffer no loss in transition defense as a result of this approach. Often the best offensive rebounding teams are also bad defensively because they overcommit players to the glass, but Chicago was awesome on D.

This fact may have some carryover into their playoff struggles. We have a fair amount of anecdotal evidence that teams with a "volume" offensive strategy, like Chicago, are more easily defended in the postseason. Of course, a more accessible explanation is that Rose, Noah and Deng all were hurt and they were facing the league's No. 3 defense.



Offseason Moves

Kirk HinrichAP Photo/Charles CherneyKirk Hinrich is back in the picture for Chicago, where he played his first seven seasons in the NBA.

See if you can detect a pattern here. The Bulls will have four of the same five starters as a year ago, but the offseason completely eviscerated their bench, with five key reserves replaced by minimum or rookie-salaried alternatives.

Let Omer Asik go, signed Nazr Mohammed for one year, minimum: The Bulls couldn't afford to match Houston's offer sheet to Asik, since it contained a "poison pill" in the form of a third year at $14.9 million -- right when the Bulls' cap situation looked to be at its worst anyway. The luxury tax bill was likely to add $15 million on top of Asik's salary, making it a $30 million season.

Nonetheless, not matching will leave a dent. While Asik couldn't score, he was one of the best defensive centers in basketball. Additionally, Chicago made a pretty uninspired choice as a replacement in the veteran Mohammed, who fell out of the Thunder's rotation last season and may not have much left in the tank at 35.

Cut C.J. Watson, drafted Marquis Teague: The Bulls waived the nonguaranteed deal of Watson and drafted Teague; certainly we can agree that the latter was a solid move given how late Chicago picked. Teague was up-and-down in his one year at Kentucky but still graded out as one of the top prospects at his position. He's only 19 and may need some seasoning, but it's rare for this much ability to be available with the 29th pick.

Cut Ronnie Brewer, signed Marco Belinelli for one year, minimum: Another money-saving move, and a hurtful one. Chicago cut the nonguaranteed Brewer, who was one of the keys to the second unit's defensive power, and replaced him with the barely replacement-level Belinelli. While he started the past two years in New Orleans, he wasn't particularly good, and the Bulls are going to take a step back at this position.

Traded Kyle Korver to Atlanta for cash, signed Vladimir Radmanovic for one year, minimum: Seeing a pattern yet? The Bulls even got paid for cutting salary on this move. However, there was at least a sneaky upside to the Korver deal in the form of a $5 million trade exception that the Bulls have until next July to use. Chicago is likely to keep that in its pocket until the draft or free agency, at which time they'll be able to take in a $5 million player from someplace else. Basically, it can act almost as a second midlevel exception for sign-and-trade deals, which will be important if they amnesty Boozer.

As for Radmanovic, he was a fine pickup for the price given his ability to play both forward spots and rain 3s, but again, this was a downgrade from Korver.

Let John Lucas go, signed Nate Robinson for one year, minimum: This is the one move I'd argue made the Bulls better. Robinson played very well in Golden State last season, and his offensive explosiveness will be very important for the second unit. While Robinson is flaky, Thibodeau has dealt with him before in Boston, and he gave the Warriors few problems last season. Don't be surprised if he finishes games, too, given this team's need for offense.

Signed Kirk Hinrich for two years, $8 million: The one genuine expenditure of the Bulls' offseason was actually a fairly risky one, and one I'd argue was made more with their hearts than their heads. Hinrich struggled in Atlanta last season, and in particular has had a tremendously difficult time playing point guard since becoming a Hawk. So plugging him in as a starting point guard for $4 million a year seems, shall we say, suboptimal. Looking out further, there's likely an idea that he can replace Hamilton at shooting guard once Rose returns, and that may be more plausible ... except that he's been in steady decline since leaving Chicago the first time, and he really shouldn't be starting on a good team anymore.



2012-13 Outlook

Joakim NoahRob Grabowski/US PresswireWith Derrick Rose on the mend, it's up to Joakim Noah and Luol Deng to lead the way.

A lot of unknowns go into this prediction, not least how many games Rose will play. I have him pegged for 20 games at a level that's not quite where he was a year ago, but tinkering with this variable understandably produces large shifts in the projected outcome for this team.

Past that, the Bulls can still hang their hats on the defense and frontcourt. Even without Asik, the Bulls project to be pretty beastly up front. In fact, one hot debate topic is likely to be whether Gibson should replace Boozer as the starting power forward. This may not be the year for it, as the Bulls will be desperate for Boozer's scoring, but it seems an inevitable shift at some point.

Defensively, Chicago will take a slight step back because the bench won't be as good at this end. Belinelli, Robinson, Radmanovic and Mohammed all are ordinary-to-bad defenders, and two of the departed players, Asik and Brewer, were very, very good. No matter how much you believe in Thibodeau's mojo, it's unrealistic to think this won't leave a dent. It's possible second-year pro Jimmy Butler helps here, and he may play ahead of one of the two Euros.

Offensively, the Bulls' bench reshuffle won't hurt them nearly as much -- Robinson should help quite a bit and Asik, for all his defensive merits, was a terrible offensive player.

Instead, it's the little matter of replacing Rose with Hinrich, who flopped as a point guard in Atlanta and now must guide an offense without a ton of scoring help. Chicago will still get some cheap points on second shots, but it seems a long shot they'll finish in the top five on offense again.

The good news is that Thibodeau's robust D will keep them in games, even if it does decline a bit from the past two years. Look for them to stay in the top six or seven teams on defense, offsetting what's likely to be a 20th-ranked or so offense. Yet the net effect is that, even with a quarter-season of Rose, Chicago makes the playoffs. Which doesn't seem so crazy, given how well the Bulls did without him a year ago.

Prediction: 43-39, 2nd in Central Division, 8th in Eastern Conference

 

[Da_Eggman]

G.S. Warriors: 2012-13 Forecast
Overview

It was a landmark moment in the history of the Warriors -- a chorus of boos raining down on owner Joe Lacob during a ceremony to retire Chris Mullin's jersey. It had less to do with Lacob in particular than with the general frustration of a fan base that's suffered for two solid decades with no relief in sight.

Last season's Warriors had offered hope that things might change, right up until they enacted one of the most brazen tanking strategies in recent memory. That's when the locals -- who have seen one playoff team in 18 years, in a league in which more than half the teams qualify -- finally snapped.

Yet the big picture in Golden State is far more encouraging. The new management has made some mistakes, and we'll discuss a few of them in a moment, but one shouldn't lose sight of all the genuine improvements since the disastrous Chris Cohan-Robert Rowell years. Basketball people are making decisions again, ownership is far more engaged and accountable, and the franchise appears to have snapped out of its decadelong habit of eating its own young.

HOLLINGER'S PLAYER PROFILES

Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Warriors' roster. Player Profiles Insider

And, unbelievably, it appears the Warriors might field a team that's interested in playing defense. The Warriors showed improvement on that end last season before they started tanking, and thanks to a trade for defensive rock Andrew Bogut, Golden State could become a league-average outfit at that end. The last time that happened was under P.J. Carlesimo in 1998-99.

Unfortunately, Lacob's tenure so far has shared two weaknesses with the previous regime: a tendency to want to win news conferences, and a questionable understanding of the salary cap. The former doesn't necessarily affect the product on the court, as long as Lacob can restrain his inner James Dolan, but the second is a bit more worrisome.

A series of iffy moves has tied up Golden State's cap for at least the next two years, most notably the decision to exercise the amnesty rights on Charlie Bell instead of Andris Biedrins. Last season's snafu came in the form of a Stephen Jackson-Richard Jefferson swap that effectively saw the Warriors pay $11 million (and give up the same in cap space) for the rights to Festus Ezeli. Not good. Between those two moves, Golden State's payroll will be about $20 million higher in 2013-14 than it should be, with essentially no difference in the quality of the product on the court.

But all that will quickly be forgiven if the Warriors put a team on the floor that competes and avoids further tanking shenanigans. Despite some missteps, there's a decent core here, with solid depth, crazy shooting and a dominant defensive anchor. It's not clear whether that will be enough to break the playoff drought, but it should at least return the Warriors to the ranks of respectable basketball teams.



2011-12 Recap

Injured Golden State Warriors AP Photo/Jeff ChiuWith injuries up and down the roster, the Warriors sank to third to last in the West by season's end.

For two-thirds of the season, the Warriors hung in a tough Western Conference playoff race despite multiple injuries to point guard Stephen Curry that essentially ruined his season. With an improved bench and, more notably, a few players willing to play defense (Brandon Rush and Dominic McGuire in particular), the Warriors were 17-21 on March 12, having just beaten the Clippers on the road, when the team traded Monta Ellis, Kwame Brown and Ekpe Udoh to Milwaukee for Andrew Bogut and Stephen Jackson. (Jackson later would be rerouted to San Antonio in the Jefferson deal referenced above.)

It was a solid trade in the sense that it finally got the Warriors a real center in Bogut. But since he was out for the season and Ellis was leading the team in scoring, it also effectively crushed any chance the Warriors had of making the playoffs. Further moves reinforced that point, as Golden State embarked on a brazen tanking operation designed to avoid ceding its first-round pick to Utah; the Warriors would keep it if it fell in the top seven picks, which required a concerted effort to pile up losses. By finishing 6-22 with a crew that included luminaries such as Jeremy Tyler, Mikki Moore and Mickell Gladness, the Warriors juuuuuust finished in a tie for the seventh-worst record, and then sweated out a coin toss with Toronto and the lottery itself to land at No. 7.

HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS

W-L: 23-43 (Pythagorean W-L: 24-42)
Offensive Efficiency: 103.1 (11th)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (27th)
Pace Factor: 94.7 (10th)
Highest PER: Stephen Curry (21.23)

Curry played only 26 games and was never totally right when he played, leaving concerns that his ankles can't take the pounding of a full season. However, positive stories abounded. Rookie Klay Thompson rebounded from a slow start to show a lot of promise as a shooter and scorer. Wing Brandon Rush had a career season, second-round pick Charles Jenkins proved a keeper and David Lee recovered from a rough first season in the Bay Area to put up more Lee-like numbers. Mark Jackson, in his first year as coach, kept his players' respect and got reasonably solid efforts from them.

But, this being Golden State, defense was still a problem. It was worsened by the late-season tankfest, but at no point was this a quality defensive squad. The Warriors finished 26th in efficiency and, plagued by a hole at the center position, landed dead last in defensive rebound rate at a pathetic 69.1 percent. A healthy Bogut will change that in a hot second.

Worst Defensive Rebound Rate, 2011-12
Team DRR
Golden State 69.1
Sacramento 70.5
New Jersey 70.7
Charlotte 70.9
Washington 70.9
League average 73.0

The Warriors also had the league's fourth-highest foul rate, were 28th in opponent secondary percentage and were below average at forcing turnovers. There was no aspect of defense at which they were good, only those at which they were comparatively less bad.

Offensively, they showed more promise, particularly with their shooting. Even with Curry playing only a minor role, the Warriors were second in the NBA in 3-point shooting at 38.8 percent. They also shot 2s better than the league average and had the league's fourth-lowest turnover rate.

But two factors held them back. The first (more minor) one was that they didn't draw fouls, finishing just 29th in free throw attempts per field goal attempt. Even their inside players, such as Lee, tended to be more shot-makers than foul-drawers, and the perimeter guys all wanted to shoot jumpers.

The real problem was a lack of second shots. Golden State was not only the worst defensive rebounding team, but it also nearly matched that feat at the offensive end, as only a historic effort by the Celtics prevented the Warriors from being league-worst at both ends. As a result, the Warriors were fifth in true shooting percentage and had the fourth-lowest turnover rate ... yet were only 11th in offensive efficiency.

Their woes on the boards marked the third season in a row the Warriors were last in the NBA in overall rebound rate -- worse even than their league-worst numbers the previous season. Golden State has been either 29th or 30th in rebound rate for an astounding six straight seasons.

To which one retorts, once again: Andrew Bogut.



Offseason Moves

Harrison BarnesJerry Lai/US PresswireGolden State kept its draft pick away from the Jazz and used it to take Harrison Barnes No. 7 overall.

Golden State continued building out its bench in the hopes of making a playoff run behind a healthy Bogut and Curry. While the offseason thankfully lacked the cap silliness of the previous two, one item to watch is the luxury tax. The Warriors are about $1 million over the threshold and might calve a secondary player at the trade deadline to slide underneath.

Drafted Harrison Barnes, Festus Ezeli, Draymond Green and Ognjen Kuzmic: The first three all should contribute this season. Barnes had his detractors, but he is big and can shoot, which should at the very least make him a reasonable facsimile of the departed Dorell Wright. Green -- a crafty, undersized 4 who can pass, shoot and rebound but will struggle on D -- was one of my favorite players in the draft. And Ezeli was more of a straight need pick; he is a backup center and will never be anything more than that, but he adds another big defender who can rebound to support Bogut.

Traded Dorell Wright to Philadelphia for Jarrett Jack: A three-way deal with the Sixers and Hornets reshaped the Warriors' lineup to get another guard in the mix. While Jack was a Fluke Rule player and is expected to decline this season, Golden State had a crowd at small forward and needed a reliable option should Curry's ankles disintegrate into a fine powder.

Let Nate Robinson and Dominic McGuire go; signed Carl Landry for two years, $8 million: I'm not as crazy about this move for two reasons. First, Landry has a player option for the second year, which means if he plays well, he's gone, and if he plays poorly, the Warriors are stuck with him. But the second reason is he's almost a perfect replication of David Lee's pros and cons, albeit in muted colors. Landry is a very poor defender and rebounder, but he can hit faceup jumpers and score in the paint. In other words, the Warriors can't ever play Landry and Lee at the same time, because they'll give up about 800 points per possession. As a straight value proposition, it's not the worst move, but that's as heartily as I can endorse it.

Re-signed Brandon Rush for two years, $8 million: Rush had a very strong 2011-12 season, and this was a reasonable value, even though he has an option for the second year just like Landry. But between his defense and 3-point shooting, Rush is a genuinely valuable player, one who likely will start if Harrison Barnes proves unready.



2012-13 Outlook

Golden State WarriorsRocky Widner/NBAE/Getty ImagesA revamped roster will try to push Golden State into the playoff field for the first time in five years.

Can I get X-rays of Bogut's and Curry's ankles, and then make my forecast? The health of those two almost certainly will dictate whether the Warriors can snap their five-year playoff funk or whether they'll spend another year in the lottery. (Sans pick, this time, unless they tank even harder; Utah gets the Warriors' draft pick unless it's in the top six.)

Bogut might not be ready for the start of the season in the wake of last year's ankle trouble, and I've penciled in Curry to miss some games as well given his recurring frailty. Nonetheless, the Warriors look like a decent threat in the West if Bogut can play at least 65 games, because he so ably addresses the two failings -- rebounding and interior defense -- that have plagued this team for a decade. The Warriors also have a much better bench than in recent years, although Bogut's position is the weakest link in that second unit.

Besides Bogut, the other reason to like this team is all the shooting. Curry and Thompson are knock-down 3-point shooters who likely form the best shooting backcourt in basketball. Around them, Barnes, Rush and Jefferson all are strong 3-point threats, Lee, Jack and Landry are accomplished midrange shooters, and Green can stroke it, too. Nobody will be surprised if this club leads the league in 3-point shooting, and that could open plenty of room for Bogut and Lee to operate inside.

Unfortunately, Bogut won't have a ton of help at the other end, and on the nights he's out of the lineup, the Warriors' defense is likely to be as ugly as ever. Lee, Landry, Curry, Thompson and Green all are somewhere between bad and awful at this end, while Barnes is likely to take his lumps as well. That puts a cap on how good this team's defense can be, regardless of Bogut's dominance.

Sum it all up, and you could get a team that could easily make the playoffs, especially if Curry and Bogut stay in the lineup all season. Could. Unfortunately, I have to project what's likely rather than what's merely possible. And the most likely scenario is that Golden State's two stars miss just enough time to keep the Warriors out of the money for another season.

Prediction: 40-42, 3rd in Pacific, 10th in Western Conference

 

[Da_Eggman]

Sacramento Kings: '12-13 Forecast
Overview

The Sacramento Kings don't know whether they're coming or going. Literally. But figuratively, too, as this organization bounces from one cringe-worthy transaction to another and the league keeps dropping talented lottery picks on them as compensation.

Alas, the Kings' financial woes and related search for a permanent home may be having the unintended consequence of enforcing some much-needed salary cap discipline. While a couple of horrifying deals remain on the books, Sacramento's cap is in excellent shape going forward -- particularly if you price in a likely amnesty of either John Salmons or Francisco Garcia.

Nonetheless, good management starts at the top, and the Kings' ownership is as weak as any in the league. Financially, the Maloofs are broke and clinging desperately to the life raft of an idea that somebody will pay them to move the team and let them keep control.

Organizationally, they just don't have a clue, showing a bizarre loyalty to general manager Geoff Petrie despite a series of epic mistakes and maintaining a status quo that clearly isn't working.

HOLLINGER'S PLAYER PROFILES

Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Kings' roster. Player Profiles Insider

The Maloofs' misguided loyalty extends to coaches. They extended the deal of coach Keith Smart through 2013-14, which I guess they felt they had to do because his 20-33 mark as their coach represents the franchise's high-water point of the past half-decade; previously they'd extended Paul Westphal in similar fashion, only to fire him seven games into the 2011-12 season. Petrie's got next -- his contract expires at the end of this season, and the smart money says the Maloofs won't have the stones to change generals despite a six-year playoff drought and the near-universal consensus that this is among league's worst-run franchises.

While the front office's errors have been notable and regular, the financial constraints also have been heavy at times. Last season's prime example was the club waiving J.J. Hickson in March, partly because he hadn't played well but mostly to save some money by having another team claim him on waivers. That's not the only yard sale the Kings have held in recent years, and it won't be the last.

Bu the nice thing about the NBA is that if you're a bad team, the league will keep lobbing lottery picks your way until you become halfway decent. Sure, they blew one of them on Jimmer Fredette and seem intent on wasting others via what appears to be a nonexistent player development strategy, but the tap keeps flowing. With DeMarcus Cousins, Tyreke Evans, Jason Thompson and now Thomas Robinson on hand, Sacramento has some legitimate talent. Throw in a couple pieces the Kings' front office genuinely found on its own -- Marcus Thornton, Isaiah Thomas and Aaron Brooks -- and they could have a decent team.

They won't, of course, because the support system just isn't there, but it's at least theoretically possible that with another lottery pick or two sent their way and more experience from the current group, the Kings could become pretty good in spite of themselves. By the time that happens, they may even have an owner with actual money and an arena built sometime after Columbus landed.



2011-12 Recap

DeMarcus CousinsRocky Widner/Getty ImagesPaul Westphal didn't hang around long last season, ousted after a conflict with DeMarcus Cousins.

It was your typical goofy Kings campaign, one that got off to a rollicking start when Westphal and Cousins began butting heads days into the season. Westphal suspended Cousins, Petrie saw an opening to throw Westphal under the bus for the team's continued underperformance, and within days Keith Smart (hired over the summer as an assistant) was installed as the new head coach and immediately given a two-year deal.

It was as weird in real life as it sounds on paper, and the upshot was that the Kings changed coaches just seven games into the season. Perhaps not surprisingly, their player development approach continues going sideways. While Cousins showed genuine progress under Smart, Tyreke Evans' career is plowing steadily in reverse, and nobody on the team seems to have any idea how to play defense.

That last item also points an arrow at Smart heading into this season. A coach who theoretically has a defensive rep, his teams have finished 24th, 26th and 28th in defensive efficiency in his three turns as a head coach. Sacramento has the talent to be much, much better than this, but it's an open debate whether Smart is the guy to coax it out of them.
HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS

W-L: 22-44 (Pythagorean W-L: 19-47)
Offensive Efficiency: 101.0 (22nd)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (28th)
Pace Factor: 97.3 (1st)
Highest PER: DeMarcus Cousins (21.72)
As for more tangible problems, those included a lack of passing and shooting. The Kings were 29th in assist rate, with a dime on just 51.0 percent of their made baskets, and the Kings were also 29th in 3-point shooting at 31.6 percent. Alas, this didn't stop them from hoisting 3s slightly more often than the league average, with Evans and Donte Greene the most egregious offenders (204 tries between them, just 45 makes).

The only player to shoot 3s at a decent clip was point guard Isaiah Thomas, the surprise of the draft with the 60th pick and one who offset the flaming train wreck that was Jimmer Fredette at No. 10 overall. Thomas' development also finally convinced the Kings to stop playing Evans at point guard, another positive development.

The Kings weren't particularly good at shooting 2s either, and didn't draw that many fouls; as a result they were just 27th in true shooting percentage. However, this team's saving grace is that it made up in quantity what it lacked in quality. Between a low turnover rate and the league's seventh-best offensive rebound rate, Sacramento ranked third in the league in shot attempts per possession. Had they shot with any accuracy, they would have ranked much better than their 22nd position in offensive efficiency.

While the offense was bad, the defense was orders of magnitude worse. Sacramento often lazed back in transition, with Cousins and Evans the worst offenders, and in the halfcourt the effort was inconsistent at best -- again, key players like Thornton and Evans were among the worst offenders.

Worst field goal defense, 2011-12
Team Opp. 2% Opp. FG% Opp. TS%
SAC 51.0 47.6 55.1
CHA 50.6 47.5 54.9
NJ 50.0 47.2 54.9
CLE 49.8 46.7 54.4
DET 49.2 46.2 54.3
As a result, the Kings were dead last in field-goal defense. They actually hit the triple crown, finishing last in 2-point defense, overall field goal defense, and opponent TS%. In a league that included the Bobcats, this is a staggering accomplishment (see chart). Oddly, they didn't give up an inordinate number of free throws or 3s; they just gave up so many easy 2s that they still finished last.

Moreover, despite the presence of Cousins and Jason Thompson (who had a nice year), the Kings were just 29th in defensive rebound rate. Again, given the talent on the team this was a completely unacceptable performance, although it also reflects a shortage of frontcourt depth: Travis Outlaw often served as the backup 4, and it was as bad in practice as it sounds in theory. The addition of Thomas Robinson and the return of Chuck Hayes may help offset this shortcoming.



Offseason Moves

Aaron BrooksRocky Widner/NBAE/Getty ImagesAaron Brooks returns from China, seeking the form that made him the most improved player in 2010.

With little motivation and less financial wiggle room, the Kings once again were unable to do a whole lot. As NBA.com's John Schuhmann pointed out, only three teams return more than 80 percent of last season's minutes -- the two finalists, Miami and Oklahoma City, and the lowly Kings.

One item of business does remain, however, as Sacramento ponders whether to extend Evans and if so at what price. From here it seems they're better off waiting, but given the Kings' history of irrational early extensions, this situation bears watching.

Drafted Thomas Robinson: The Kings got the last of the sure-ish things with the fifth overall pick, although Robinson replicates a lot of Cousins' strengths and weaknesses -- he's a brutish rebounder and physical force, but not much of a shooter or high-polish finisher. At worst, however, he'll help flesh out a frontcourt rotation that lacked a genuine backup 4 last season, and as with Cousins he'll likely get plenty of put-backs from his teammates' bricks.

Sold Orlando Johnson to Indiana for cash: Yard sale, anyone? A rebuilding team holding the 36th pick in the draft nonetheless sold it, because that's what the Kings have to do these days to make ends meet.

Traded future draft pick to Toronto for James Johnson: The Kings gave Toronto a second-round pick in 2014 for the rights to Johnson, which would be a solid deal in most circumstances. Johnson is an improving combo forward who should give this team a bit more of a defensive presence, with the bulk of his playing time likely coming as the backup small forward. The question is whether this deal will be any more than a one-year rental; Johnson is a restricted free agent next summer and it's an open question, as always, whether the Kings will have either the willingness or the ability to pay him.

Signed Aaron Brooks for two years, $6.5 million: Sacramento shored up its backup point guard spot with Brooks, who played in China last season but had productive stints as a change-of-pace point guard in Houston. Brooks replicates a lot of this team's worst tendencies -- he's a shoot-first point guard with limited court vision -- but even on his worst night he's a major upgrade on Jimmer.



2012-13 Outlook

Marcus Thornton, Tyreke EvansKelley L Cox/US PresswireMarcus Thornton and Tyreke Evans hope for an increasing number of chances to celebrate this season.

That starting five doesn't look so shabby, does it? Throw in a healthier Chuck Hayes, and newcomers Johnson, Robinson and Brooks, and the bench would appear to be markedly improved as well. At the very least, there's no reason to play Fredette or Outlaw this season, and John Salmons' time should be dramatically curtailed as well.

A few factors should conspire against them, however. Most prominent among them is the team-wide indifference at the defensive end, Hayes excepted. Of the Kings' five starters, there isn't one of them whom you'd call an above-average defender, although Evans could be if his effort improved. The rampant gambling and cherry-picking of wings Thornton and Evans constantly leaves the others at a disadvantage, while the transition D suffers because of the former two and because Cousins just doesn't move well up and down the court. Also, both point guards are woefully undersized.

Two positives mitigate against that. First, young teams generally get a bit better at defense with more time together. Second, the bench should be considerably better. Johnson could provide a real impact with his athleticism, although his gambling tendencies may only be magnified with this group, and Robinson may prove helpful here too.

Nonetheless, we're probably looking at a bottom-five defense again, and the offense is just a middle-of-the-pack group. They'll get baskets at the rim and in transition, and Cousins will wear out some opponents under the rim. But it's a roster full of me-first gunners, sort of a West Coast version of recent Washington Wizards teams, and we all saw how that worked out. The lack of passing ability (or even willingness) up and down the roster is magnified by the lack of shooting, although adding Brooks and subtracting Greene should help their 3-point percentage.

Meanwhile, there's little reason to think the organization will be of any help as the year goes on. The owners are hanging on to the team by their fingernails and more focused on relocation options than the on-court product, and the ossified front office seems similarly focused on self-preservation. Even if they found money to make a move, it's questionable whether said move would prove helpful.

Sum it all up and the best news we can offer is that this year's team should be less awful than past editions. If Smart can engender some genuine defensive effort they may even hang around on the fringes of the playoff race for a while. More likely, the combination of average offense and awful defense leaves them well out of the money.

Prediction: 32-50, 4th in Pacific Division, 11th in Western Conference

 

[STAN JONES]

my insider ran out

somebody post this for me

Justin Blackmon among rookies who could emerge in second half - NFL - ESPN

 

[Bboystyle]

i miss them weekly Insider break downs of the NFL games that skooby would post


I remember fiending for them back in 2004...Skooby,u fell off breh

 

[Padron1926]

Second-half breakout rookies

Spoiler

By Mel Kiper
ESPN Insider



At the midway point of the season, people are already assessing whether teams had a good draft or not. I've even started looking at how the 2013 NFL draft will line up. And while it's obvious in some places where 2012 draft picks are going to work out -- ask the Colts -- there are many rookies who were drafted into situations where there wasn't an obvious void, and thus have to slowly build their résumés as they gain more reps and build trust with coaches.

In the last couple of seasons, we've seen great second-half performances by rookies to cement their status as rising young stars, after very little to show for the first half of the season. Carlos Dunlap, Rob Gronkowski, Robert Quinn, Richard Sherman, Titus Young, Jason Pierre-Paul, Justin Houston and others used the second halves of their rookie seasons to really emerge over the last few years. Which rookies off to relatively slow starts could do the same in 2012? Here are some possibilities, on each side of the ball.

Remember before commenting: If you don't see a rookie who's had a good start here (say, Dwayne Allen), that's a compliment. These guys need to, and should, produce more.

Offense

Justin Blackmon, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
He has 26 catches for 250 yards, but the impact hasn't been there for a few reasons. Blackmon isn't on the same page with Blaine Gabbert; he has work to do as a route-runner, as his ability to create space and separate has been lacking; and Jacksonville is addicted to outs and digs, and Blackmon hasn't seen anything down the field. The No. 5 overall pick needs to play better, but he also needs some help.

David Wilson, RB, New York Giants
Still crawling out of the doghouse because of slippery hands early in the season, Wilson should see more reps because he's the most explosive option the Giants have, and they know it. He has just 17 carries for 88 yards, but if he gets touches, the Giants are going to get some big plays out of it (they've seen his explosiveness in the return game), so my guess is he'll get a few more.

Ryan Broyles, WR, Detroit Lions
The injury to Nate Burleson will have Broyles on the field more, and he should be back to 100 percent a year after tearing his ACL. He's a versatile receiver, so I think the Lions will find ways to get him into the offense.



Alshon Jeffery, WR, Chicago Bears
Jeffery fractured his hand in Week 5, and won't be back against Houston, but should be soon, and Jay Cutler and the Bears need him. So why will Jeffery emerge? Because Cutler's dependency on Brandon Marshall makes our fossil-fuels dependency look quaint. Marshall is getting almost 40 percent of Cutler's targets, which is an absurd number. Jeffery can pick up some slack.

Bernard Pierce, RB, Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens are both really cognizant of the wear that Ray Rice piles up week after week, and really enthralled with Pierce, who has burst, power and can do a lot of damage on the second level if he gets a crease. I'd expect to see a lot more of him in the second half.

Chris Rainey, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers love the added element his speed offers, and he'll be on the field plenty, both to get the ball and to terrify linebackers as a decoy.

Chris Givens, WR, St. Louis Rams
He needs to hang onto the ball consistently, but Givens offers St. Louis big-play potential for an offense that has lacked it. His 13 catches have gone for 333 yards, which is over 26 yards per catch. He's now in on over half of the snaps for the Rams, and I'd expect to see that number rise. He gives them a RAC ability they can use.

Bobbie Massie, T, Arizona
What?! Massie?! The guy who's been a human turnstile for the first half of the season? Well, yeah, and let me tell you why. Massie is a guy who probably should have returned to college because he needed a lot of work on technique -- his physical skills far outweighed his performance. He wasn't ready to start for Arizona, but has, and has been abused because of it. If they continue to coach this kid, a player could emerge. He's playing in what really should be an NFL redshirt season.

Vick Ballard, RB, Indianapolis Colts
Ballard has shown great burst, and the Colts are using him more and more. If he's getting more carries than Donald Brown by the end of the season, it wouldn't surprise me. A nice year so far for the guy who was the final pick in the fifth round in April.

LaVon Brazill, WR, Indianapolis Colts
He had a good camp and is finding his way on the field. Let the rookie pass-catcher parade continue in Indy, where Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener and T.Y. Hilton are already off to great starts.

Defense

Michael Brockers, DT, St. Louis Rams
He might be at or near the top of the defensive tackle group in the 2013 draft if he came back, but Brockers landed in the first round in 2012 because of his vast potential. He's been dinged on and off this season, but got his first sack against the Packers a couple of weeks ago, and should start to perform even better in the second half as he gains experience and gets comfortable in the Rams' system.

Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Cincinnati Bengals
He's been out all year hurt, but finally made his debut last week and could have a big second half, because this is a kid with size, an ability to cover big targets and a willingness to attack the line of scrimmage and tackle. With veterans like Terence Newman and Nate Clements holding down starting roles, Cincy is ready for some young blood.

Derek Wolfe, DE, Denver Broncos
Wolfe has actually seen plenty of action and has played pretty well, but he's here because he needs to gain experience in a new role. The Broncos have him closer to the edge now after he lined up inside at Cincinnati, where he was a devastating inside pass-rusher. The guy's No. 1 skill is relentlessness, and he should succeed as the other skills develop in a new role.

Olivier Vernon, DE, Miami Dolphins
He currently backs up Cameron Wake, but Vernon has played well in his limited snaps and shows really nice burst as an edge-rusher, and has been particularly good on special teams, where he has a knack for getting his paws on kicks. This was a kid I once saw as a potential first-rounder, and he's played up to that level on occasion.

Frank Alexander, DE, Carolina Panthers
The defensive line has played a lot better for Carolina in the last few weeks, and Alexander is a part of the mix. He has a lingering knee issue, but he found his way to the QB a few times and will be a helpful situation pass-rusher in the second half.

Nigel Bradham, LB, Buffalo Bills
When he was drafted out of Florida State, I said that Bradham's ceiling was a question, but the guy could start pretty early in his NFL career. Well, he's starting now for the Bills, and can become an answer for them if he shows he can make them more effective against the run. That's no promise, as he needs to step it up some, but I think he has a shot.

Josh Norman, CB, Carolina Panthers
Fish-market raw coming out of Coastal Carolina, Norman has been up and down. I just think he has a chance to become pretty good, because he's learning a lot of things for the first time. I wouldn't be surprised if his play gets a lot better in the second half as he sees a ton of reps.

Jonte Green, CB, Detroit Lions
Out of New Mexico State, Green was a bit of a wild card but has played pretty well for the Lions and should see more starts both because he's healthy and because he plays without fear. The guy has some ability, and the Lions may have a steal with the late sixth-rounder.

Billy Winn, DT, Cleveland Browns
He doesn't really belong here, because Winn played early and well after Phil Taylor was injured. With Taylor back, Winn will be used more in rotation, which should help him.

 

[Padron1926]

Midseason NFL QB rankings

Spoiler

With at least eight games played for every team, it's time to review the progress of all the NFL's starting quarterbacks. As you'll see below, we're starting to see some major progress by some of the game's youngest QBs … and some surprising regression from veteran starters.

At the backbone of these rankings is career achievement. Who has shown me the most over the longest period of time? That kind of consistency is what you would want to see if you were picking a QB to get you a win this week. But as with our Week 4 update, and now again at the midseason point, current play factors in as well -- though it often has more of an impact on the younger quarterbacks than the veterans. While recent performances have dropped some experienced passers down the list, one makes a long-awaited debut among the Top 5 and a pair of rookies make big leaps up the board.

At No. 1, however, Aaron Rodgers retains his crown.

Jaws' QB Rankings

Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers
#12 QB
Green Bay Packers

2012 STATS

Att327
Comp219
Yds2383
TD25
Int5
Rat107.4

1. Aaron Rodgers
Previous: 1

Rodgers just quietly does his job every week. He had one poor game earlier this season, but he has been absolutely phenomenal since then. His deep ball accuracy is back, and when he has that weapon firing on target, he's deadly. I still believe there is a clear separation between him and my No. 2 QB, Tom Brady.

Tom Brady
Tom Brady
#12 QB
New England Patriots

2012 STATS

Att320
Comp209
Yds2408
TD16
Int3
Rat100.6

2 . Tom Brady
Previous: 2

Brady is doing a great job of utilizing all his options right now. Some folks may be alarmed that the usual numbers aren't there, but the Pats have made a philosophical shift on offense and a lot of that reasoning is to keep Tom healthy. You don't need him in shotgun 50 times, and taking added hits. New England wants to be a more balanced offense with a more violent running game. They're getting there. While the Pats still have their trademark short passing game, they still lack an explosive playmaker downfield. But with Brady, there has been no falloff.

Peyton Manning
Peyton Manning
#18 QB
Denver Broncos

2012 STATS

Att292
Comp203
Yds2404
TD20
Int6
Rat108.6

3. Peyton Manning
Previous: 4

Peyton Manning just gets better every week. It has been so much fun plugging in his tapes, dating back to the preseason, and seeing him evolve in this offense. Entering Week 10 it's clear he has more of an understanding of where players are supposed to be. At QB, the mantra is, "Be where you're supposed to be and I'll find you." It's clear that Denver's receivers are getting to those landmarks and Manning is finding them. He's also making the right call at the line, even when it won't pad his stats. If he sees the opportunity to run into a light box, he'll audible and hand off the ball. He doesn't care who gets the credit, and I give him credit for that.

Matt Ryan
Matt Ryan
#2 QB
Atlanta Falcons

2012 STATS

Att299
Comp206
Yds2360
TD17
Int6
Rat103.0

4. Matt Ryan
Previous: 6

Since the start of the season, this is the first time with a new name in my Top 5. That's a big deal. It is really hard to move guys back from this level, but Ryan has earned his way into this select company with his play, particularly his deep ball accuracy. Ryan has been making plays late and successfully managing critical situations. If that continues, Atlanta will be hard to beat and Ryan is going to put up some huge numbers.

Ben Roethlisberger
Ben Roethlisberger
#7 QB
Pittsburgh Steelers

2012 STATS

Att298
Comp200
Yds2203
TD16
Int4
Rat101.1

5. Ben Roethlisberger
Previous: 7

When it comes to MVP candidates, Roethlisberger has to be in the discussion. Just consider all the issues the Steelers have had on their line, in their backfield and with their wide receivers. None of that has bothered Big Ben. The constant has been Ben's play in the pocket, extending plays and executing them in a positive manner. While he comes in at No. 5, I'm not sure if the four guys ahead of him could do what Ben has done this year.

Eli Manning
Eli Manning
#10 QB
New York Giants

2012 STATS

Att318
Comp194
Yds2426
TD12
Int9
Rat85.5

6. Eli Manning
Previous:3

Eli has plateaued a little bit. It's not all his fault, but clearly he has not been sharp over the past four games. At the beginning of the season he was making plays and winning games, but now I see him leaving plays on the field. Against the Steelers, the Giants' receivers got pushed around, which caused spacing problems. In one instance I saw two receivers standing side by side because of re-routing by the Steelers' secondary. When the receivers can't get clear, the QB pays. Also, I think Eli's arm looks tired. Recently when he gets a chance for a big play, the ball loses energy downfield, as it did on his interception to Ike Taylor. I think Eli needs a bye week. Get him some time off and I think we will see that ball whistle out again.

Drew Brees
Drew Brees
#9 QB
New Orleans Saints

2012 STATS

Att342
Comp209
Yds2549
TD22
Int8
Rat95.8

7. Drew Brees
Previous: 5

The Saints as a team have not been playing as well this season, and their offense is the most imbalanced in football. They finally got their run going against the Eagles, and they're going to need that going forward. Still, I think Brees is leaving too many plays on the field. He had Marques Colston open on a deep cross Monday night, he doesn't hit him and Nnamdi Asomugha makes the play. Those are plays Brees always makes; he's just not finishing and that's a cause for concern. Brees is a phenomenal QB, but I'm dropping him because he's missing the receivers he normally hits.

Matt Schaub
Matt Schaub
#8 QB
Houston Texans

2012 STATS

Att249
Comp159
Yds1918
TD12
Int4
Rat96.8

8. Matt Schaub
Previous: 9

I love the Texans' offense. I'm a big believer in balance and they define a balanced offense. Only Seattle runs more, and it's clear that Gary Kubiak's philosophy in Houston is to pound the football. Their play-action game is so wicked that I like to call it run-action. Everyone sells the run. The linemen's pads are down, no one pops up and it sucks up the linebackers and safeties and generates some explosive plays. Schaub has been a very good manager this year, understands critical situations and is performing better when he's in there.

Joe Flacco
Joe Flacco
#5 QB
Baltimore Ravens

2012 STATS

Att276
Comp165
Yds1990
TD10
Int6
Rat85.0

9. Joe Flacco
Previous: 8

Early in the season there was a burden on him to carry the team and he was slinging it all over the field. No one threw the ball outside the numbers more than Flacco early, and those aren't the highest percentage throws. Still, he got off to a hot start. Now he's started to plateau. Part of the reason, I think, is that the line is inconsistent, which impacts his comfort in the pocket.

Jay Cutler
Jay Cutler
#6 QB
Chicago Bears

2012 STATS

Att241
Comp144
Yds1774
TD12
Int8
Rat85.3

10. Jay Cutler
Previous: 13

I knocked him down at the quarter mark mainly because of a horrible game against Green Bay. When I look at the tape I know a QB isn't going to hit every pass, but are they throwing to the right guy? When I watched Cutler, I thought he was forcing it. He was erratic with his accuracy but he has calmed down. Whenever he gets an iso route to Brandon Marshall he's going to take that shot, and The Beast is playing pretty well right now. Everybody loves that security blanket, and Marshall is clearly Cutler's.

Philip Rivers
Philip Rivers
#17 QB
San Diego Chargers

2012 STATS

Att263
Comp175
Yds1866
TD12
Int10
Rat86.5

11. Philip Rivers
Previous: 10
Inconsistency and poor decision-making are my main concerns. He's making too many decisions that have hurt him. I love his physical talent, but the mental game appears lacking right now. I also think we're seeing the impact of losing Vincent Jackson. Rivers is a deep-ball thrower, and he trusted Jackson. I'm not sure he's trusting his current receivers. Rivers seems to prefer to check down, work the back out of the flat, or make a high-percentage throw to Antonio Gates. Those explosive plays we used to see have disappeared.

Tony Romo
Tony Romo
#9 QB
Dallas Cowboys

2012 STATS

Att318
Comp211
Yds2394
TD10
Int13
Rat82.2

12. Tony Romo
Previous: 11

Most people would think Romo should be knocked down more. The decision-making and INTs are the obvious concerns, but when I look at his INTs I understand why they happen. Take that debacle against Chicago. Yes, he threw a bunch of picks, but Dez Bryant misses his route, Kevin Ogletree can't make a catch -- stuff like that happens. I don't put those on Romo. Even some of the risky throws I don't necessarily fault him for either. You can't throw checkdowns when you're down three scores. When you're down 17, I'd rather throw a seam route and take a chance than rely on dumping the ball off, which is what the D wants. That said, Romo has still made some bad decisions and has to be careful with the ball. But when I look at Romo I still see a lot of positives. He can make every throw, extend the play, and while he may leave early sometimes, he makes so many plays I still think he's a top QB.

Alex Smith
Alex Smith
#11 QB
San Francisco 49ers

2012 STATS

Att209
Comp145
Yds1659
TD12
Int5
Rat102.1

13. Alex Smith
Previous: 16

Smith is not going to wow you with frozen ropes 30 yards to the sidelines, or 60-yard bombs downfield. But he understands his role and roles of others. He's more than a manager. The Niners use a ton of personnel packages and Smith knows the strengths and different weapons in all of them. You need to be sharp to handle the volume of plays they run. And Smith is most assuredly a sharp QB.

Matthew Stafford
Matthew Stafford
#9 QB
Detroit Lions

2012 STATS

Att346
Comp220
Yds2393
TD8
Int7
Rat83.2

14. Matthew Stafford
Previous: 15

Early in the season I thought he was playing fast and frenetic. I saw a lot of sidearm throws, or instances where he wasn't setting his feet. Now he's starting to settle down. The Lions need a running game, and Mikel Leshoure will help give some balance to the offense. I expect Stafford will finish strong.

Josh Freeman
Josh Freeman
#5 QB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2012 STATS

Att253
Comp141
Yds2047
TD16
Int5
Rat95.1

15. Josh Freeman
Previous: 21

I spent some time on Freeman this week while I was watching Doug Martin's huge day. Equally impressive, to me, was watching Freeman's throws. He's looking really comfortable, and seems to be beginning to understand the offense. Yes, Martin has been huge lately, but if you look at what Freeman has done in the past four games, he may be the hottest QB in the league: 11 TDs, 1 INT, 9.38 yards per attempt, 314 yards per game, 60 completions over 20 yards and a 112.0 QB rating. Freeman is a big, strong guy -- as I like to say, barn strong. He can just rear back and fire the ball. Physically, I think he's a lot like Roethlisberger.

 

[Padron1926]

Midseason NFL QB rankings Part Duex

Spoiler

Andrew Luck
Andrew Luck
#12 QB
Indianapolis Colts

2012 STATS

Att336
Comp190
Yds2404
TD10
Int8
Rat79.0

16. Andrew Luck
Previous: 23

I don't know what more you can say about this guy. On "PTI" Thursday, they asked me what Luck has to do to get better. I told them, "nothing." He really just needs more experience. Has every attribute you could want. He can extend the play, run, throw on the run, and he's so good in the pre-snap phase. The Dolphins used a lot of Double A-gap pressure against the Colts. When they came with that, Luck brought in tight end Dwayne Allen, checked the play and adjusted perfectly. He is aware of everything, which is very uncommon this early in a QB's career.

Robert Griffin III
Robert Griffin III
#10 QB
Washington Redskins

2012 STATS

Att262
Comp172
Yds1993
TD8
Int3
Rat93.9

17. Robert Griffin III
Previous: 17

RG3 might have topped out a little, and the next step in his evolution isn't on him, but rather the Skins' coaching staff. Washington has an incredible running game, so the Shanahans are going to have to teach Griffin how to play under center. Eventually he needs to be assimilated into an NFL system. Right now, defenses are making him turn away from what was successful early this season. I think we need to see more of him under center. Luck came from a Stanford system where they ran an NFL offense, so Luck was further along in that regard. I think the Redskins have a plan for him, and that's the next stage. It's just a matter of when they're going to unveil those new packages.

Michael Vick
Michael Vick
#7 QB
Philadelphia Eagles

2012 STATS

Att307
Comp179
Yds2095
TD10
Int9
Rat77.7

18. Michael Vick
Previous: 12

The drop might be a little unfair for a number of reasons, but none bigger than the offensive line. Vick's protection has been dreadful. Through eight games, Vick has been knocked to the ground 134 times. That's almost 17 times a game. QBs can't take that kind of beating. Sometimes it's on him for running downfield, but the line has really been horrible. Maybe it's the pressure from the defense, or the circumstances in Philly, but the decision-making isn't there for Vick either. On the opening play Monday night, the Eagles designed a beautiful play -- a deep corner route. Jeremy Maclin was wide open on a crossing route, but instead Vick threw to DeSean Jackson in double coverage deep. It's those decisions that trouble me. When you get a play like that, you have got to hit it. Vick is leaving a lot of plays out there.

Andy Dalton
Andy Dalton
#14 QB
Cincinnati Bengals

2012 STATS

Att285
Comp182
Yds2130
TD14
Int11
Rat86.7

19. Andy Dalton
Previous: 14

Maybe I had him too high last time because of how well he played as a rookie. Dalton has certainly leveled off and maybe even regressed a little. I think he needs to get the ball to A.J. Green more. Dalton doesn't look as comfortable as he has in the past. Maybe he's thinking too much, or trying to carry the team. However they do it, the Bengals need to get him settled in the pocket.

Cam Newton
Cam Newton
#1 QB
Carolina Panthers

2012 STATS

Att235
Comp134
Yds1902
TD6
Int8
Rat77.7

20. Cam Newton
Previous: 18

People have been on Newton for all the wrong reasons. But I don't make judgments based on press conferences or evaluations based on a clothing line. He still has ridiculous talent. That back-shoulder laser to Steve Smith last week in Washington reminded me of that. In fact, every game I see four to five pass plays that wow me. I'm not crazy about Carolina's offense because I don't think Cam's Auburn offense works in the NFL, and that's part of the problem. Roughly 80 percent of Newton's throws have been out of the shotgun. They need to start putting in some NFL passing plays from under center so he can understand timing and rhythm better.

Sam Bradford
Sam Bradford
#8 QB
St. Louis Rams

2012 STATS

Att249
Comp153
Yds1797
TD8
Int7
Rat82.4

21. Sam Bradford
Previous: 19

Guys fall where they fall on this ranking until they show me something. When Bradford gets time and protection and a defined read, and when he stays on his back foot and drives it, there's no one better. Obviously there are a lot of "ifs" there, but he can be elite. He's just too inconsistent. There are pass protection problems now, but I see a bright future. When things get fixed in St. Louis and the Rams get an offense around him, he'll have a chance to be terrific. It's just going to take some time.

Carson Palmer
Carson Palmer
#3 QB
Oakland Raiders

2012 STATS

Att330
Comp201
Yds2355
TD13
Int8
Rat85.6

22. Carson Palmer
Previous: 22

It has been a mixed bag with Palmer. He's making great plays but also showing some poor decision-making. For a guy at this point in his career, he shouldn't be throwing some of these balls. That bothers me. A lot of it is the Raiders' situation, playing from behind. I thought when I had him at No. 21 to start the season though he'd move up. Instead he has plateaued somewhat. That has been a little disappointing.

Ryan Tannehill
Ryan Tannehill
#17 QB
Miami Dolphins

2012 STATS

Att241
Comp142
Yds1762
TD5
Int6
Rat78.2

23. Ryan Tannehill
Previous: 24

Bold prediction time: In my next Big Board we'll see a big leap from Tannehill. He is really beginning to see the light go on. I see the big arm. I see trust in his receivers. He's just not quite consistent yet. But he understands the speed of the NFL game now and knows that at top of the drop, the ball needs to come out. I really anticipate a big climb, much like our next QB has just made.

Russell Wilson
Russell Wilson
#3 QB
Seattle Seahawks

2012 STATS

Att234
Comp145
Yds1639
TD13
Int8
Rat87.2

24. Russell Wilson
Previous: 31

We are starting to see what his skills really are as he gets better every week. We always talk about his size, and while the Seahawks do get him outside of pocket, he also has made great plays from inside the pocket. Moreover, they've been big plays and key times. He currently leads all rookies with 13 TDs -- 11 have come when Seattle has been tied or behind. That tells you what's in his belly. He understands when it's time to make that play. That attribute is hard to find and, better still, he executes.

Christian Ponder
Christian Ponder
#7 QB
Minnesota Vikings

2012 STATS

Att284
Comp182
Yds1806
TD10
Int8
Rat82.0

25. Christian Ponder
Previous: 20

Ponder is in free fall right now and needs to get it together. I thought he was outstanding early, distributing the ball to Percy Harvin, his tight ends and others, but now that defenses have forced him to play from pocket he has really struggled. It has almost been painful to look at some of these plays because I feel his pain. I spent some time with him last year and think he's a high-character guy and he'll continue to work through it. The shame of it has been that the running game is humming behind Adrian Peterson and the play-action game should be better, but it's not. This is a bump in the road though and I think he ultimately gets it turned around.

Mark Sanchez
Mark Sanchez
#6 QB
New York Jets

2012 STATS

Att272
Comp144
Yds1736
TD10
Int8
Rat72.8

26. Mark Sanchez
Previous: 26

Sanchez had an awful game against Miami and for the first time I was troubled about his game, particularly the wild inaccuracy. That really bothers me. You're going to miss throws, but the Jets had really good designs and he just didn't execute. They had plays for first downs, but he missed. They had deep plays, and he'd miss wildly. They had short plays, he'd miss those too. He's not the big-armed guy who's going to wow you. He relies on accuracy and being steady. So when his accuracy fails him, that's really concerning.

Ryan Fitzpatrick
Ryan Fitzpatrick
#14 QB
Buffalo Bills

2012 STATS

Att256
Comp158
Yds1674
TD15
Int9
Rat85.6

27. Ryan Fitzpatrick
Previous: 30

Fitzpatrick's mechanics drive me crazy because I'm nuts about that stuff. Arm slot, footwork … it all needs to be consistent to have success in the NFL. Fitzpatrick's mechanics aren't consistent and neither is his overall performance. He'll make a play, then on the next one he'll underthrow a deep ball because he doesn't set his feet. Fitzpatrick's decision-making is also troublesome, but his mechanics are just downright vexing.

Matt Hasselbeck
Matt Hasselbeck
#8 QB
Tennessee Titans

2012 STATS

Att220
Comp138
Yds1367
TD7
Int5
Rat81.4

28. Matt Hasselbeck
Previous: NR - Backup

Not too much you can say about Hasselbeck that hasn't been said before. He's a steady, veteran presence for the Titans who has filled in for the injured Jake Locker. Not a lot of wow to be found here, but you can absolutely do a lot worse in the backup department. I suspect the veteran would like to have some of his INTs back, but some of his risks have been dictated by the scoreboard. Locker may start again this week.

Blaine Gabbert
Blaine Gabbert
#11 QB
Jacksonville Jaguars

2012 STATS

Att245
Comp142
Yds1429
TD9
Int5
Rat78.4

29. Blaine Gabbert
Previous: 27

I thought I saw improvement coming with Gabbert, but the strides forward haven't been made fully. As we saw Thursday night against Indy, there were good and bad throws; nothing made the case that he's clearly on track. He has improved his pocket toughness this year. Maybe all the commentary on that score last year made him realize he wasn't tough enough in the pocket and he picked it up. There's still a ways to go though. He needs to take his skills and practice and put it together.

Matt Cassel
Matt Cassel
#7 QB
Kansas City Chiefs

2012 STATS

Att235
Comp142
Yds1549
TD6
Int11
Rat68.9

30. Matt Cassel
Previous: 28

Cassel gets a second chance after losing the job to Brady Quinn. When I look at this team, it has the playmakers -- Jamaal Charles, Tony Moeaki, Dwayne Bowe -- and a veteran offensive line. So, to me, this offense should be more productive. When those elements are all in place, the QB has to absorb some of the responsibility. And in this case, Cassel has to shoulder the load.

John Skelton
John Skelton
#19 QB
Arizona Cardinals

2012 STATS

Att172
Comp96
Yds1052
TD2
Int5
Rat65.8

31. John Skelton
Previous: NR - Backup

Skelton really hasn't played enough, so this ranking might be unfair. Particularly because the Cardinals' offensive line might be the worst in football. Guys, you've gotta block somebody! At least get in the way of the pass-rusher. It's pretty hard to play quarterback when you're under that kind of duress.

Brandon Weeden
Brandon Weeden
#3 QB
Cleveland Browns

2012 STATS

Att336
Comp185
Yds2088
TD9
Int12
Rat67.9

32. Brandon Weeden
Previous: 32

I still think he's going to be very good, but he has been wildly inconsistent early. He has not gotten a lot of help from receivers -- Cleveland leads the NFL in drops -- and if that changes I could see a much improved second half. Regardless, I think he has a chance to move up considerably down the line. The light is starting to come on and I'm going to watch closely the next four weeks.

 

[Skooby]

i miss them weekly Insider break downs of the NFL games that skooby would post


I remember fiending for them back in 2004...Skooby,u fell off breh

I still read them every week lol. I'll start posting them starting next week.

 

[2pac_Westside]

I still read them every week lol. I'll start posting them starting next week.

man I remember filling in for you when you had your family reunions..

i'm about to hit my 10 year anniversary on sohh