man I remember filling in for you when you had your family reunions..
i'm about to hit my 10 year anniversary on sohh
lol. We getting old breh. Tablets weren't around then...now I can post insiders from anywhere!
Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)
- Thread starter the cool
- Start date
lol. We getting old breh. Tablets weren't around then...now I can post insiders from anywhere!
Dolphins-Bills:i miss them weekly Insider break downs of the NFL games that skooby would post
I remember fiending for them back in 2004...Skooby,u fell off breh
Bush is X factor vs. vulnerable Buffalo D
QB OL DL LB DB Coach = Dolphins
RB WR ST = Bills
Get to Tannehill with four: After having wrist surgery, Mario Williams has come on strong. He should give Dolphins RT Jonathan Martin all he can handle. Buffalo DEs Chris Kelsay and Mark Anderson were both inactive last week, so Miami LT Jake Long is set to have a much more favorable matchup than Martin. Because of this, Martin should see plenty of help. But Long has not played up to his usual standards this season. The Bills blitz very infrequently, and the stats bear out that by far the best way to attack Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is with four or fewer pass-rushers.
Precise routes can help Dolphins: The Bills' young cornerbacks are understandably struggling and Buffalo prefers to play a lot of man coverage. Because of this issue, Buffalo has been playing more off coverage, allowing a lot of passes underneath. While Tannehill hasn't been very effective throwing outside the numbers, Brian Hartline is having a strong season and is his favorite target, which is also true in the red zone. This could be a game that Davone Bess steps up with some favorable matchups. The real stabilizing force of Buffalo's secondary is S Jairus Byrd. Buffalo CB Aaron Williams was inactive for Buffalo last week, and pass interference calls were a huge problem in that game.
How to handle Bush: Opposing running backs are posting gigantic stats against the Bills' defense. The Dolphins are predominantly a 21 personnel team (2 RBs/1 TE), but Reggie Bush's versatility gives them some flexibility. Buffalo also doesn't have a linebacker who can keep up with Bush in the passing game. The Bills do use Bryan Scott, who is a safety/linebacker 'tweener on the second level in their sub packages, and he could have a more prominent role on early downs to match up with Bush, but this makes the Bills light in the front seven against a physical Miami running game. Miami got nothing going on the ground last week and Bush was promptly benched after a fumble, yielding to Daniel Thomas and Lamar Miller. And although Bush isn't real effective in pass protection, expect him to be the lead back once again this week, as he is Miami's best playmaker on offense. Also, Tannehill has done very well with play-action in his rookie season.
Home QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick's mechanics are highly inconsistent and he has been awful when throwing deep downfield. He is a very up-and-down quarterback overall. One thing Fitzpatrick has done well this year, though, is throwing in the red zone. Miami can certainly be thrown on, but the Dolphins are at their best in pass defense when they rush four or fewer. The Bills use more three-wide receiver sets than any team in the league, which will test the Dolphins' secondary depth. Nolan Carroll is now a starting cornerback for the Dolphins, which is a bit of a problem. Although it is far from an exceptional group, Buffalo's receivers have proved to be very sure-handed for Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick threw for 337 yards against a very suspect Patriots pass defense last week.
Away QB: Tannehill is coming off his worst game as a professional, but overall, his rookie season has been a great success. As rookies go, Tannehill is exceptional in the pre-snap phases of playing quarterback. And because Buffalo's defense is about as easy to prepare for as any in the league, Tannehill should rarely be confused or uncertain. Tannehill, a former college wide receiver, is extremely athletic for the quarterback position. He is an excellent runner with the football and also throws very well on the move. Miami could look to get Anthony Fasano more involved this week, as opposing tight ends are producing big versus the Bills.
Key positional battle -- Bills' RBs vs. Dolphins' LBs: Buffalo is extremely strong at running back with C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. At times, both players will be on the field together with Spiller in more of a wide receiver role. Both are very good receivers. But Jackson did leave last week's game late with an injury and might be unavailable on such a short week. Miami has a very good group of very active linebackers led by Karlos Dansby, and a physical defensive line that is difficult to move in the run game with Randy Starks really standing out. Starks also gets a great push in the passing game. Miami has been very stout against opposing running backs, but Jackson and Spiller combined for 150 rushing yards and another 96 receiving yards against New England. This could be the most crucial component of this contest.
Featured player: He rarely gets the recognition, but Cameron Wake is as good of a pass-rusher as there is in the NFL today. The Bills' scheme predicates they get the football out quickly, which reduces their sacks allowed, but Wake is going to demand extra attention from their protection schemes without question.
Film room nuggets: Under the radar, Miami's Mike Pouncey is playing as well as any center in football today. ... Also under the radar, due to how poorly Buffalo's defense has played, Kyle Williams is also playing fantastic football -- especially as a pass-rusher. ... The biggest key to Buffalo's offense is its running backs -- and Miami consistently stifles running back production. That is, at least before last week, as the Titans' Chris Johnson racked up 126 rushing yards.
Prediction
Buffalo 23
Miami 20
This should be a close game, but Buffalo is playing better football right now and is at home on a very short week, giving the Bills the edge. These teams meet again in Week 16.
Cardinals-Falcons:
Falcons look to bounce back from first loss
QB RB WR OL DB ST Coach = Falcons
DL LB = Cardinals
Get the ground game untracked: Atlanta head coach Mike Smith is going to put a heavy emphasis on the ground game this week. Facing the league's worst run defense last week, Atlanta was able to put up only 46 yards on the Saints for a weak average of 2.6 yards per carry. The Falcons will focus on being a lot more effective than they were in New Orleans during their first loss of the season. Look for a heavy dose of Michael Turner and backup Jacquizz Rodgers as the Falcons try to eat up the clock and take some pressure off the passing game.
Mix up coverages on defense: Arizona defensive coordinator Ray Horton is doing a great job of mixing up personnel packages and using different looks in coverage to make it difficult for opposing quarterbacks to make pre-snap reads. Expect the Cardinals to make it look like they are playing with eight in the box a lot in this game, then drop the safety back into coverage at the last second in an attempt to discourage Atlanta from running too much.
Finish drives with TDs: The Falcons were inside the Saints' 10-yard line twice in the fourth quarter of last week's loss and came out with a total of three points on those drives. If the Falcons hope to become a postseason force, they need to be able to impose their will on their opponents. Look for more heavy formations with multiple tight ends as the Falcons try to put the ball in the end zone once they get close.
Home QB: Matt Ryan is a top-tier quarterback who, although he may not quite be elite, can lead his team on winning drives late in the game. He is more effective when throwing from the pocket, especially off the play-action pass, but can extend plays and get the ball out from the perimeter as well. He is quick to read coverages and consistently does a good job of going through his progressions and going to his best option. He is much more effective when the ground game is going well enough to sell the play-action fake.
Away QB: The Cardinals have been struggling at quarterback, whether it is John Skelton or Kevin Kolb behind center. Skelton has been the quarterback of choice since Kolb was hurt against Buffalo in Week 6 but hasn't exactly been lighting it up. He is a big quarterback with a strong arm but is neither a great scrambler nor a great passer when throwing on the move. At best, these are game-managers who won't lose games when the running game is hitting on all cylinders, but neither is apt to carry a team on his own shoulders.
Key positional battle -- Cardinals' DL vs. Falcons' OL: While the Falcons haven't exactly lit it up this year with a powerful ground game, their offensive line has done a good job of protecting the pocket and keeping Ryan upright. Smith is hoping that Ryan doesn't have to throw the ball 52 times in this game, like he did against New Orleans, but it will be interesting to see if the Cardinals can get enough pressure on the pocket to force some bad throws. Arizona does a good job of generating a pass rush with a combination of blitzes and with push from the inside from the front three.
Featured player: Atlanta should be expecting a big game from Ryan. While Smith is going to put a heavy emphasis on the run game, Atlanta will need its passing attack to really make this offense move. Ryan will be facing a lot of exotic looks with multiple personnel packages and disguised coverages. He needs to be decisive and sharp to prevent an upset from happening.
Film room nuggets: Atlanta all-century tight end Tony Gonzalez could be looking at his final season in the NFL but is still playing at a very high level. His concentration when catching the ball is about as good as there has ever been. He catches tipped balls or balls thrown into tiny windows or big crowds as well as anybody. ... Daryl Washington is a sack artist coming from the inside linebacker position for Arizona. He has a great closing burst as well as the ability to play off the edge of blockers. He is relentless and shows great leverage as he closes in on the pocket.
Prediction
Atlanta 34
Arizona 20
Arizona's defense has the ability to keep this game close, but the offense needs to come up huge or Atlanta will end up playing a game of clock control and field position.
Browns-Cowboys:
Can Dallas win two straight?
QB WR DL LB DB Coach = Cowboys
RB OL ST = Browns
Dallas needs to establish the run: The Cowboys have been inconsistent rushing the football this season, especially without DeMarco Murray; they average 85 yards per contest. The Browns, who yield an average of 132 yards per game, can be exploited on the ground. Murray is expected back from a sprained foot. Look for Cowboys coach Jason Garrett to make an effort to pound the rock between the tackles using isolation and off-tackle power runs, but we may see a wrinkle such as a jet sweep or reverse to stretch the Browns' front seven.
Control tempo with the running game: Cleveland's strong suit is rushing the football. Statistically, the Browns aren't always impressive -- they average only 89 yards per game. But Trent Richardson is a talented rookie who is coming off an excellent effort (105 yards at 4.2 yards per attempt) against the Ravens in Week 9. Dallas is banged up along the defensive front seven and has been exploited several times by the run. The Browns match up well up front, and we should look for offensive coordinator Brad Childress to control the tempo with a physical ground assault.
Win the turnover and field-position battles: The Browns are on the road and appear to be overmatched. But the Cowboys are 31st in the league in turnover margin (minus-11), and Cleveland has been solid (plus-1) in this phase of the game. Both clubs have very solid kickers, punters and coverage units. Look for Browns special-teams coordinator Chris Tabor to have his unit focused after a bye week. We may see a wrinkle such as a fake or a different blocking scheme to gain the field-position advantage.
Home QB: Tony Romo made several excellent plays improvising in the Cowboys' Week 10 win over the Eagles. He has average size with good arm strength and athleticism. He is one of the most scrutinized signal-callers in the NFL because of his roller-coaster performances throughout his career. He has great vision and often finds his second and third options. He is great at extending the play outside the tackle box by sliding and finding open windows to deliver the ball. But Romo tends to force the ball into coverage and has a gunslinger mentality.
Away QB: Brandon Weeden is an older NFL rookie -- he played minor league baseball for four seasons before attending Oklahoma State. He is coming off a marginal outing in Week 9 in which he completed only 54 percent of his passes and threw two interceptions. He will have to play better to move the chains in hostile territory. He is a big, strong, athletic quarterback who can power the football into tight spaces. He operates best in the pocket but is athletic enough to get on the edges using bootlegs, rollouts and scrambles to deliver the ball downfield. Weeden has shown positive flashes but forces the ball into coverage too often and has been inaccurate.
Key positional battle -- Cowboys WR corps vs. Browns secondary: Dallas fields great perimeter targets -- Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Kevin Ogletree -- and one of the best receiving tight ends in the league, Jason Witten. All are excellent athletes who can make big plays. Cleveland has a very solid secondary but gives up too many big plays downfield. Look for cornerbacks Joe Haden and Sheldon Brown to be aggressive, using press man and tight zone techniques, to force Romo to hit his checkdowns.
Featured player: Richardson is a powerfully built back with excellent vision and inline run skills. He is having a solid rookie season, and the Cleveland offense is built around him. He's Cleveland's leading rusher and receiver. He is a punishing runner who moves the pile on contact. He is a solid receiver out of the backfield and a solid blocker in blitz pickup. Richardson hasn't put up gaudy numbers, but opposing coordinators devise their game plans to stop him first.
Film room nuggets: Witten isn't explosive but is an excellent route runner who uses his quickness, length and strength to get open against both man and zone coverages. He is Dallas' most consistent chain mover. ... Josh Cribbs, the Browns' versatile receiver and return specialist, still has great vision, quickness and deceptive strength to make big plays, especially in the kicking game. Look for him to get more touches.
Prediction
Dallas 28
Cleveland 20
The Browns are coming off a bye week and have been improving. Dallas is coming off a tough road win but is still inconsistent. The Cowboys are more talented and should be able to string two wins together -- something they haven't done all season.
Packers-Lions:
Expect offensive fireworks when these NFC North rivals meet
QB WR LB DB ST Coach = Packers
RB OL DL = Lions
Work for balance offensively: The Green Bay Packers lead the league with 26 touchdown passes, but they'll need to be more balanced to get far in the postseason. The Lions were gashed for 189 yards on the ground in their Week 10 loss to the Vikings and have been inconsistent defending the run most of the year. Look for Packers coach Mike McCarthy to work for more balance with conventional downhill power plays and draws between the tackles as well as jet sweeps or a reverse to stretch the perimeter.
Pass to set up the run: With 307 yards per game, the Lions have an explosive passing game but couldn't run the football in Week 10. The Packers have been inconsistent defending the pass and could get exploited in this week's matchup. Look for offensive coordinator Scott Linehan to spread the Packers out to create mismatches, which should open up creases in the running game. Getting in a shootout with Green Bay's offense usually doesn't work out well for the opposing team.
Field position and turnover battle: The kicking game will likely play a big part in this week's matchup. Both clubs have solid punters and place-kickers, but Detroit's coverage units have been exploited for four return touchdowns this season. The Packers are a plus-4 while the Lions are a minus-4 in regards to the turnover battle. If this trend holds in this game, Detroit has no chance in this important divisional battle.
Home QB: Matthew Stafford is a talented fourth-year signal-caller who is coming off a big outing -- three TDs and 329 yards passing -- versus the Vikings. He is a big, strong, athletic quarterback. Stafford had a breakout season in 2011 but having less success getting the ball into the end zone in 2012. He has a strong arm and can fit the ball into tight spaces. He can improvise effectively outside the tackle box but operates best from the pocket. He has excellent vision and has improved his decision making over the past two seasons. Stafford has enough weapons to put up big numbers and carry the offense versus a banged up Packers defense.
Away QB: Aaron Rodgers continues to play at a high level and is coming off a four touchdown performance in the Packers' Week 9 victory. He has good size with excellent arm strength and athleticism. He has great vision and instincts to find his second and third receiver in the passing game. He can fit the ball into tight spaces yet is judicious with his decision making. He is excellent to move the chains with his legs showing speed out of the pocket to pick up chunks of yards. Rodgers continues to be one of the best signal callers in the league and almost impossible to keep at bay in any given week.
Key positional battle -- Lions' receiving corps vs. Packers' secondary: Detroit got on track with three touchdowns through the air in Week 10. They field explosive perimeter targets in Calvin Johnson and Titus Young as well as having a tight end in Brandon Pettigrew who can stretch the field. The Packers have an athletic secondary but three of the four starters were college free agents when entering the NFL. Green Bay plays a bend-but-don't-break philosophy against the pass but Detroit matches up well in this phase and could present the Packers' toughest challenge thus far.
Featured player: Detroit's Johnson is an outstanding combination of size, power and athleticism for the position. His length, strength and ability to adjust create matchup problems in the passing game. It's tough to cover him with one defender and he often draws some type of bracket coverage scheme. He can be a physical blocker on the perimeter in the running game. The last time the Lions played the Packers Johnson had a huge day -- 11 catches for 244 yards and a touchdown -- and could be a big factor this week.
Film room nuggets: Nick Fairley has been more of a force on the inside for the Lions in recent weeks. He has deceptive power to push the pocket while showing great initial quickness to be disruptive defending the run. ... Because of injuries, the Packers' Randall Cobb has gotten more touches at receiver. His quickness, burst and speed are evident after the catch, as a perimeter runner and as a return specialist.
Prediction
Green Bay 30
Detroit 28
These teams can put up big numbers offensively and both have holes on defense. The Packers are banged up at some key positions and the Lions are desperate for a win, but Green Bay is more talented and coming off a bye.
Bengals-Chiefs:
Bengals should take advantage of Chiefs' mistakes
QB WR DL ST Coach = Bengals
RB OL LB DB = Chiefs
Get Atkins and Dunlap blocked: Despite the Chiefs' immense struggles this season, their offensive line is one of the better front-five groups in the league. But dealing with Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap is a tough assignment, and QB Matt Cassel has not performed well under pressure this year. As good as Atkins and Dunlap are at rushing the passer, the Bengals surprisingly are worse in pass defense when they rush four or fewer. But they also don't have great blitzing defenders in their back seven. Dunlap had 1.5 sacks in Week 10.
Green energy: Bengals receiver A.J. Green will be the best player on the field. Green has a receiving touchdown in eight straight games. He is a rare blend of height, body control, speed and fluidity. The Andy Dalton-to-Green connection has been especially potent outside the numbers. Kansas City cornerback Brandon Flowers is having an excellent season and few teams even throw his way anymore, but the other cornerbacks are very beatable, especially against a specimen like Green.
Feed Charles: Jamaal Charles rushed for 100 yards in Pittsburgh on Monday night. He is the player who gives Kansas City the best chance to win this week because of his extreme explosiveness. The Chiefs showed they can be effective running to their right. Despite the threat of Charles, Cassel has generated very little from play-action passing. And he is the type of passer who needs help from play-action.
Home QB: In an awful showing, Cassel completed just 11 passes in Week 10. Kansas City has turned the ball over an amazing 30 times this year. Cassel has been responsible for many of those turnovers. Dwayne Bowe is far and away the Chiefs' top target. Cincinnati will throw a wide variety of coverages at Cassel but should focus on Bowe a high percentage of the time. Kansas City has gotten little from Tony Moeaki this season, but the Bengals don't handle opposing tight ends very well and are weak at the safety position. Getting Moeaki more involved could make some sense for the Chiefs, and they did a nice job including Moeaki against Pittsburgh.
Away QB: Dalton has not looked nearly as comfortable in his second season as he did as rookie. His timing and anticipation as a passer aren't as crisp. Week 10 was the first game Dalton didn't throw an interception this year, but the Chiefs have been horrible overall in the turnover department. Dalton threw four touchdowns against the Giants but was more efficient than he was spectacular.
Key positional battle -- Bengals' OTs vs. Chiefs' OLBs: Andrew Whitworth is one of the better left tackles in football, and Andre Smith has come a long way since his rookie season. Dalton was not sacked last week against the Giants' excellent defensive line. But Tamba Hali and Justin Houston will provide a very stiff test for Cincinnati's edge protection. Despite how effective he is, the Chiefs don't bring Houston in pressure nearly enough. But Kansas City has struggled statistically vs. the pass when they rush five or more. The Chiefs are stronger at nose tackle with Dontari Poe quietly emerging, which opens more room for Hali and Houston, who both had great games Monday night.
Featured player: Jermaine Gresham's role continues to grow, and he is providing Dalton with a solid second receiving option behind Green. But Gresham has been plagued by drops this season. Despite the struggles of safety Eric Berry as he continues his return from injury, Kansas City has done a nice job against tight ends. Derrick Johnson could see plenty of Gresham in this game. Johnson was all over the field against Pittsburgh and is one of the most active linebackers in the league today.
Film room nuggets:The Bengals have been terrible converting third downs, so it is important for them to stay in manageable down-and-distance situations. ... Along those lines, it is a misconception that Cincinnati's run blocking is the culprit for its poor running game. In fact, this group is pretty strong in the run game, but BenJarvus Green-Ellis has zero big-play ability. The Bengals need a running back this offseason. Green-Ellis managed just 50 yards on the ground last week in unspectacular fashion.
Prediction
Cincinnati 27
Kansas City 13
It could be argued the Chiefs outplayed Pittsburgh on Monday night, but they consistently hurt themselves with errors. The four turnovers created were the key to Cincinnati's win over the Giants. The Bengals win this one going away.
Jets-Rams:
Expect Jets' road woes to continue
QB RB WR DL LB DB Coach = Rams
OL ST = Jets
Get to the quarterback: The Rams have an excellent, young defensive line and should be able to pressure Jets QB Mark Sanchez without a steady dose of blitzes. Plus, St. Louis' pass defense is not as effective when it brings added pressure. Sanchez has struggled equally no matter the number of pass-rushers coming his way. However, before notching five sacks last week, the Rams' defensive line was struggling a bit.
Win vs. man coverage: St. Louis plays a lot of man coverage and should continue to do so against a suspect group of Jets receivers. Jeremy Kerley is the best man coverage-beater of the group and has emerged as a reliable option for Sanchez. But New York needs more from the other pass-catchers.
Get S-Jax rolling: Rams Rb Steven Jackson ran with great conviction and effort against a very good 49ers defense last week. Meanwhile, Marshawn Lynch rushed for 124 yards last week against the Jets. So this week could set up well for Jackson, and to a lesser degree, the speedy Daryl Richardson as a complement to Jackson. Keep an eye on Jets DE Muhammad Wilkerson, who has come on strong in his second season and should prove very difficult for any member of St. Louis' offensive line to block.
Home QB: Sam Bradford played a superb game in San Francisco last week and clearly put his team in position to win. He is a great passer, but Bradford needs time in the pocket and space to operate. But that rarely happens for him with this current supporting cast. Throwing on the Jets is extremely difficult and Antonio Cromartie has stepped up huge as New York's top cornerback after the injury to Darrelle Revis. But the Rams don't have a true No. 1 wideout for Cromartie to eliminate. As evidenced by Danny Amendola's 11 catches last week, he is Bradford's favorite receiver, but Cromartie doesn't match up as well against quick, slot receivers like Amendola. Cromartie might draw the assignment of slowing down speedster Chris Givens on the outside instead.
Away QB: Sanchez is having a terrible season. He is at the bottom of the league in just about every metric, including red zone passing. And he can be terribly inaccurate. The Jets claim to be sticking with him as their starting quarterback, but defending him is becoming more difficult by the week. Could this be the week we finally see Tim Tebow in a more prominent role behind center? It really can't get much worse. New York was unable to score any offensive points last week in Seattle.
Key positional battle -- Jets' RBs vs. Rams' LBs: The Rams allowed 183 yards rushing last week in five quarters of play against San Francisco. And although New York is very much a run-heavy offense, the Jets are much easier to play against than Frank Gore and the 49ers' outstanding offensive line. The Jets' offensive line is playing well in the run game, though, but their backs just don't gain enough yardage on their own.
Featured player: Tight end Dustin Keller needs to become a focal point of the Jets' passing game. Now healthy, he has a good combination of athletic ability and size. Plus, he is an intermediate and quarterback-friendly target. This week, Keller could be poised for big things, as the Rams have been far too generous to opposing tight ends. New York plays a large percentage of double-tight end sets, but Keller made little impact in Week 10.
Film room nuggets: Linebacker DeMario Davis is a player to watch on the second level for New York. The Jets' incumbent inside linebackers lack great speed, and the middle of the field was being exposed in the passing game. Davis covers much more ground and brings much-needed speed to the position. ... New York has had to manufacture a pass rush for much of the season and Rex Ryan is very good at doing so. But the problem here really lies in the personnel, as the Jets just lack a truly threatening pass-rusher on the roster. The Jets did sack Russell Wilson four times last week and the Rams' offensive line is among the worst in the NFL.
Prediction
St. Louis 20
New York 10
New York has won just one road game this season and has lost five of six overall. Don't expect things to change very much in another losing effort this week in St. Louis.
Expect offensive fireworks when these NFC North rivals meet
QB WR LB DB ST Coach = Packers
RB OL DL = Lions
Work for balance offensively: The Green Bay Packers lead the league with 26 touchdown passes, but they'll need to be more balanced to get far in the postseason. The Lions were gashed for 189 yards on the ground in their Week 10 loss to the Vikings and have been inconsistent defending the run most of the year. Look for Packers coach Mike McCarthy to work for more balance with conventional downhill power plays and draws between the tackles as well as jet sweeps or a reverse to stretch the perimeter.
Pass to set up the run: With 307 yards per game, the Lions have an explosive passing game but couldn't run the football in Week 10. The Packers have been inconsistent defending the pass and could get exploited in this week's matchup. Look for offensive coordinator Scott Linehan to spread the Packers out to create mismatches, which should open up creases in the running game. Getting in a shootout with Green Bay's offense usually doesn't work out well for the opposing team.
Field position and turnover battle: The kicking game will likely play a big part in this week's matchup. Both clubs have solid punters and place-kickers, but Detroit's coverage units have been exploited for four return touchdowns this season. The Packers are a plus-4 while the Lions are a minus-4 in regards to the turnover battle. If this trend holds in this game, Detroit has no chance in this important divisional battle.
Home QB: Matthew Stafford is a talented fourth-year signal-caller who is coming off a big outing -- three TDs and 329 yards passing -- versus the Vikings. He is a big, strong, athletic quarterback. Stafford had a breakout season in 2011 but having less success getting the ball into the end zone in 2012. He has a strong arm and can fit the ball into tight spaces. He can improvise effectively outside the tackle box but operates best from the pocket. He has excellent vision and has improved his decision making over the past two seasons. Stafford has enough weapons to put up big numbers and carry the offense versus a banged up Packers defense.
Away QB: Aaron Rodgers continues to play at a high level and is coming off a four touchdown performance in the Packers' Week 9 victory. He has good size with excellent arm strength and athleticism. He has great vision and instincts to find his second and third receiver in the passing game. He can fit the ball into tight spaces yet is judicious with his decision making. He is excellent to move the chains with his legs showing speed out of the pocket to pick up chunks of yards. Rodgers continues to be one of the best signal callers in the league and almost impossible to keep at bay in any given week.
Key positional battle -- Lions' receiving corps vs. Packers' secondary: Detroit got on track with three touchdowns through the air in Week 10. They field explosive perimeter targets in Calvin Johnson and Titus Young as well as having a tight end in Brandon Pettigrew who can stretch the field. The Packers have an athletic secondary but three of the four starters were college free agents when entering the NFL. Green Bay plays a bend-but-don't-break philosophy against the pass but Detroit matches up well in this phase and could present the Packers' toughest challenge thus far.
Featured player: Detroit's Johnson is an outstanding combination of size, power and athleticism for the position. His length, strength and ability to adjust create matchup problems in the passing game. It's tough to cover him with one defender and he often draws some type of bracket coverage scheme. He can be a physical blocker on the perimeter in the running game. The last time the Lions played the Packers Johnson had a huge day -- 11 catches for 244 yards and a touchdown -- and could be a big factor this week.
Film room nuggets: Nick Fairley has been more of a force on the inside for the Lions in recent weeks. He has deceptive power to push the pocket while showing great initial quickness to be disruptive defending the run. ... Because of injuries, the Packers' Randall Cobb has gotten more touches at receiver. His quickness, burst and speed are evident after the catch, as a perimeter runner and as a return specialist.
Prediction
Green Bay 30
Detroit 28
These teams can put up big numbers offensively and both have holes on defense. The Packers are banged up at some key positions and the Lions are desperate for a win, but Green Bay is more talented and coming off a bye.
Bengals-Chiefs:
Bengals should take advantage of Chiefs' mistakes
QB WR DL ST Coach = Bengals
RB OL LB DB = Chiefs
Get Atkins and Dunlap blocked: Despite the Chiefs' immense struggles this season, their offensive line is one of the better front-five groups in the league. But dealing with Geno Atkins and Carlos Dunlap is a tough assignment, and QB Matt Cassel has not performed well under pressure this year. As good as Atkins and Dunlap are at rushing the passer, the Bengals surprisingly are worse in pass defense when they rush four or fewer. But they also don't have great blitzing defenders in their back seven. Dunlap had 1.5 sacks in Week 10.
Green energy: Bengals receiver A.J. Green will be the best player on the field. Green has a receiving touchdown in eight straight games. He is a rare blend of height, body control, speed and fluidity. The Andy Dalton-to-Green connection has been especially potent outside the numbers. Kansas City cornerback Brandon Flowers is having an excellent season and few teams even throw his way anymore, but the other cornerbacks are very beatable, especially against a specimen like Green.
Feed Charles: Jamaal Charles rushed for 100 yards in Pittsburgh on Monday night. He is the player who gives Kansas City the best chance to win this week because of his extreme explosiveness. The Chiefs showed they can be effective running to their right. Despite the threat of Charles, Cassel has generated very little from play-action passing. And he is the type of passer who needs help from play-action.
Home QB: In an awful showing, Cassel completed just 11 passes in Week 10. Kansas City has turned the ball over an amazing 30 times this year. Cassel has been responsible for many of those turnovers. Dwayne Bowe is far and away the Chiefs' top target. Cincinnati will throw a wide variety of coverages at Cassel but should focus on Bowe a high percentage of the time. Kansas City has gotten little from Tony Moeaki this season, but the Bengals don't handle opposing tight ends very well and are weak at the safety position. Getting Moeaki more involved could make some sense for the Chiefs, and they did a nice job including Moeaki against Pittsburgh.
Away QB: Dalton has not looked nearly as comfortable in his second season as he did as rookie. His timing and anticipation as a passer aren't as crisp. Week 10 was the first game Dalton didn't throw an interception this year, but the Chiefs have been horrible overall in the turnover department. Dalton threw four touchdowns against the Giants but was more efficient than he was spectacular.
Key positional battle -- Bengals' OTs vs. Chiefs' OLBs: Andrew Whitworth is one of the better left tackles in football, and Andre Smith has come a long way since his rookie season. Dalton was not sacked last week against the Giants' excellent defensive line. But Tamba Hali and Justin Houston will provide a very stiff test for Cincinnati's edge protection. Despite how effective he is, the Chiefs don't bring Houston in pressure nearly enough. But Kansas City has struggled statistically vs. the pass when they rush five or more. The Chiefs are stronger at nose tackle with Dontari Poe quietly emerging, which opens more room for Hali and Houston, who both had great games Monday night.
Featured player: Jermaine Gresham's role continues to grow, and he is providing Dalton with a solid second receiving option behind Green. But Gresham has been plagued by drops this season. Despite the struggles of safety Eric Berry as he continues his return from injury, Kansas City has done a nice job against tight ends. Derrick Johnson could see plenty of Gresham in this game. Johnson was all over the field against Pittsburgh and is one of the most active linebackers in the league today.
Film room nuggets:The Bengals have been terrible converting third downs, so it is important for them to stay in manageable down-and-distance situations. ... Along those lines, it is a misconception that Cincinnati's run blocking is the culprit for its poor running game. In fact, this group is pretty strong in the run game, but BenJarvus Green-Ellis has zero big-play ability. The Bengals need a running back this offseason. Green-Ellis managed just 50 yards on the ground last week in unspectacular fashion.
Prediction
Cincinnati 27
Kansas City 13
It could be argued the Chiefs outplayed Pittsburgh on Monday night, but they consistently hurt themselves with errors. The four turnovers created were the key to Cincinnati's win over the Giants. The Bengals win this one going away.
Jets-Rams:
Expect Jets' road woes to continue
QB RB WR DL LB DB Coach = Rams
OL ST = Jets
Get to the quarterback: The Rams have an excellent, young defensive line and should be able to pressure Jets QB Mark Sanchez without a steady dose of blitzes. Plus, St. Louis' pass defense is not as effective when it brings added pressure. Sanchez has struggled equally no matter the number of pass-rushers coming his way. However, before notching five sacks last week, the Rams' defensive line was struggling a bit.
Win vs. man coverage: St. Louis plays a lot of man coverage and should continue to do so against a suspect group of Jets receivers. Jeremy Kerley is the best man coverage-beater of the group and has emerged as a reliable option for Sanchez. But New York needs more from the other pass-catchers.
Get S-Jax rolling: Rams Rb Steven Jackson ran with great conviction and effort against a very good 49ers defense last week. Meanwhile, Marshawn Lynch rushed for 124 yards last week against the Jets. So this week could set up well for Jackson, and to a lesser degree, the speedy Daryl Richardson as a complement to Jackson. Keep an eye on Jets DE Muhammad Wilkerson, who has come on strong in his second season and should prove very difficult for any member of St. Louis' offensive line to block.
Home QB: Sam Bradford played a superb game in San Francisco last week and clearly put his team in position to win. He is a great passer, but Bradford needs time in the pocket and space to operate. But that rarely happens for him with this current supporting cast. Throwing on the Jets is extremely difficult and Antonio Cromartie has stepped up huge as New York's top cornerback after the injury to Darrelle Revis. But the Rams don't have a true No. 1 wideout for Cromartie to eliminate. As evidenced by Danny Amendola's 11 catches last week, he is Bradford's favorite receiver, but Cromartie doesn't match up as well against quick, slot receivers like Amendola. Cromartie might draw the assignment of slowing down speedster Chris Givens on the outside instead.
Away QB: Sanchez is having a terrible season. He is at the bottom of the league in just about every metric, including red zone passing. And he can be terribly inaccurate. The Jets claim to be sticking with him as their starting quarterback, but defending him is becoming more difficult by the week. Could this be the week we finally see Tim Tebow in a more prominent role behind center? It really can't get much worse. New York was unable to score any offensive points last week in Seattle.
Key positional battle -- Jets' RBs vs. Rams' LBs: The Rams allowed 183 yards rushing last week in five quarters of play against San Francisco. And although New York is very much a run-heavy offense, the Jets are much easier to play against than Frank Gore and the 49ers' outstanding offensive line. The Jets' offensive line is playing well in the run game, though, but their backs just don't gain enough yardage on their own.
Featured player: Tight end Dustin Keller needs to become a focal point of the Jets' passing game. Now healthy, he has a good combination of athletic ability and size. Plus, he is an intermediate and quarterback-friendly target. This week, Keller could be poised for big things, as the Rams have been far too generous to opposing tight ends. New York plays a large percentage of double-tight end sets, but Keller made little impact in Week 10.
Film room nuggets: Linebacker DeMario Davis is a player to watch on the second level for New York. The Jets' incumbent inside linebackers lack great speed, and the middle of the field was being exposed in the passing game. Davis covers much more ground and brings much-needed speed to the position. ... New York has had to manufacture a pass rush for much of the season and Rex Ryan is very good at doing so. But the problem here really lies in the personnel, as the Jets just lack a truly threatening pass-rusher on the roster. The Jets did sack Russell Wilson four times last week and the Rams' offensive line is among the worst in the NFL.
Prediction
St. Louis 20
New York 10
New York has won just one road game this season and has lost five of six overall. Don't expect things to change very much in another losing effort this week in St. Louis.
Eagles-Redskins:
Nick Foles changes game plan for both teams
QB OL DL LB Coach = Redskins
RB WR DB ST = Eagles
Set the tempo with the ground game: The Eagles have been marginal rushing the passer this season but, with three against the Cowboys in Week 10 they showed why they led the league in sacks in 2011. Philadelphia has been inconsistent defending the run, while the Redskins are second in the league rushing the football (164.6 yards per game). Look for offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan to build his game plan around a power ground assault to set the tempo of the contest.
Tighten up pass protection: With a less mobile quarterback under center, the Eagles' offensive line will need to tighten up protection after yielding 29 sacks in nine games. The Redskins have only 14 sacks but could be more aggressive against rookie Nick Foles coming out of their bye week. With veteran tackles Jason Peters and Todd Herremans on IR, look for more maximum and slide protections and tighter line splits to keep the rookie quarterback upright.
Special teams and turnover battle: The Redskins are somewhat average in the kicking game, with two punts blocked and unimpressive return yardage. Both clubs have been inconsistent with their coverage units, while Alex Henery gives Philadelphia a clear advantage at place-kicker. Washington has the advantage in the turnover battle -- the Eagles are minus-11 and the Redskins are plus-7 -- especially in the red zone.
Home QB: Robert Griffin III is the most athletic young quarterback to enter the league since Michael Vick came on the scene in 2001. He is coming off an average performance, mostly due to being under pressure, in the Redskins' Week 9 loss to the Panthers. Griffin has adequate size with great athleticism and excellent arm strength. He shows great poise in the pocket given his inexperience, with vision and instincts to find open targets in the passing game. He is a natural playmaker out of the pocket with speed and quickness to move the chains. RG3 is a dynamic athlete who can take over a game, but he'll need more time to operate to perform better in Week 11.
Away QB: Foles gets his first NFL start in this game, so it will likely be a run-first mentality for Andy Reid and the offensive staff. Foles has excellent size and arm strength. He has good touch on the long ball and showed good accuracy on his short and intermediate throws. He is a pocket passer who appears somewhat average when improvising outside the tackle box. Foles has talent, but his lack of experience and mobility will clearly change the game-planning for both teams.
Key positional battle -- Redskins' secondary vs. Eagles' receivers: Washington has been poor defending the pass, while Philadelphia fields explosive perimeter targets in DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin while also having an athletic tight end in Brent Celek. If Reid decides to put the ball up often against this Redskins secondary, it could be the key to who wins this contest. But that remains to be seen because of the quarterback situation.
Featured player: Eagles running back LeSean McCoy has great vision, quickness and burst to and through the hole to pick up chunks of yards. He can bounce from one tackle to the other with speed to get outside. He is a reliable receiver out of the backfield with good run-after-catch ability. He doesn't have great size but has deceptive power on contact. He had another solid game against the Cowboys in Week 10 and usually gets 18 to 25 touches a game. Opposing coordinators have to game plan for the gifted McCoy.
Film room nuggets: Jackson is an undersized wide receiver with excellent quickness that often distorts angles. He is a bit of a glider, but when he needs to get separation he shows burst out of his stem. Defenders have backed off him to guard against the big play. ... Rookie running back Alfred Morris has carried the load for the Redskins' ground assault. He has patience to find a crease and power to move the pile. He's had limited touches in the passing game, but he is effective as a receiver and blocker in this phase of the game.
Prediction
Washington 27
Philadelphia 23
Both teams have talented players in all three phases but suffer from an execution problem in many areas. With Washington coming off a bye week and being at home and Philadelphia playing a rookie quarterback, I'll give the nod to the Redskins.
Bucs-Panthers:
Bucs' run D could be the difference
QB LB DB ST = Panthers
RB WR OL DL Coach = Bucs
Tampa Bay needs to keep the momentum up front: The Buccaneers have done a phenomenal job replacing injured linemen this year. Both starting guards, Davin Joseph and Carl Nicks, were lost to injuries. They are doing a great job of protecting the pocket as well as opening up running lanes for rookie RB Doug Martin. Look for more of their power running game as they try to maintain ball control and eat up the clock.
Protect the football: Carolina's inability to protect the football has contributed to its woes this season. QB Cam Newton has accounted for 13 turnovers by himself -- 10 interceptions and three fumbles. You can't keep giving your opponent a short field, especially when playing a team like Tampa Bay. The Bucs have a turnover margin of plus-9 and do an excellent job of creating turnovers.
Limit Tampa Bay's RAC: Tampa Bay receivers Vincent Jackson (22.9) and Mike Williams (17.4) are among the leaders in yards per catch. They are not burners but have excellent run-after-catch instincts and the size and strength to break tackles and gain yards after initial contact. Carolina has not been a good tackling team this year, especially in the secondary. If the Panthers hope to keep this game close, they need to swarm to the ball and limit the receivers' ability to tack on yards.
Home QB: Newton is struggling through a very uneven second year. After taking the league by storm in 2011, he hasn't been nearly as decisive and is throwing way too many interceptions. He is holding the ball too long and appears to be staring down his primary target, giving the defense a good clue about where the ball is going. He has all the physical tools but needs to mature as a leader both on and off the field.
Away QB: After struggling through a tough third year in 2011, Josh Freeman has rebounded in a big way in 2012. He is showing the poise in the pocket that we saw in 2010 and is doing an excellent job protecting the football. He has thrown just five interceptions -- none in the last four games -- and has 18 touchdown passes. He is more mobile in the pocket this year. He is making good decisions and throws when he has to extend the play and throw on the move. He has definitely benefited from a strong ground game from Martin.
Key positional battle -- Buccaneers' RBs vs. Panthers' LBs: Martin, Tampa Bay's rookie phenom at running back, is well on his way to a 1,000-yard season. He is averaging 5 yards a carry. LeGarrette Blount as a backup gives the Buccaneers a powerful one-two punch as long as Blount holds onto the ball. Both backs run with a strong base and get a lot of yards after initial contact. Carolina's linebackers are quick and athletic. Rookie LB Luke Kuechly is leading the team in tackles and looking like a future star.
Case for the underdog: Carolina needs a huge game from the quarterback position, and Newton is definitely capable. He gives Carolina a guy who can put up huge numbers in the passing game and also leads the team in rushing yards. Expect Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan to use a lot of different pressure packages as he tries to force Newton into getting the ball out sooner than he would like.
Film room nuggets: The connection between Newton and WR Steve Smith has just not been there this year. Smith is catching just more than half of the balls that have been thrown his way. He has lost a step with age, but the biggest issue is that Newton is not putting the ball where Smith likes to catch it. He is not big enough to go up in a crowd and come down with the ball on a consistent basis.
Prediction
Tampa Bay 24
Carolina 20
Tampa Bay has quietly put together one of the league's toughest run defensesr. The Bucs will make it very difficult for the Panthers to move the ball on the ground. The Bucs should score just enough to come out ahead.
Jaguars-Texans:
Jaguars' secondary must adjust
QB RB WR OL DL LB DB ST Coach = Texans
Jacksonville must tighten its coverage: Against the Colts last Thursday night, the Jaguars' cornerbacks were playing loose coverage way too often. When the opponent is running basic, two-receiver routes, cornerbacks need to tighten up in coverage. Houston's receivers have as much, if not more, speed as those of the Colts and quarterback Matt Schaub will be quicker at going through his progressions than Colts rookie Andrew Luck. If Jacksonville's cornerbacks are playing as far off as they did last week, Schaub will have a big game.
Share the load in the backfield: Houston's Arian Foster, a workhorse back who is averaging 25 carries a game, will be looking at a short week to recover. Although he appears to be tireless, it only makes sense to give backup Justin Forsett more carries in this game, not only to provide a nice change of pace but to keep Foster's legs fresh for what is likely going to be a more physical in Detroit in Week 12.
Look for more no-huddle by the Jaguars: Against the Colts, QB Blaine Gabbert seemed to look more at ease when the Jaguars were running the no-huddle, as he was making quicker decisions and getting the ball out more quickly. Against a Houston defense that likes to use a lot of situational substituting, a no-huddle approach could give Gabbert more time in the pocket to make his reads and go through his progressions.
Home QB: Schaub is a very solid quarterback who may not jump off the screen with an explosive arm or an extremely quick delivery, but he understands the offense and makes very few mistakes. He has two multiple-interception games but has also had no picks in five other games. He is more of a pocket passer than a scrambler or a guy who excels on the move, but is one of the best when it comes to selling the play-action fake and making quick decisions. Foster and WR Andre Johnson are the stars of this offense, but Schaub is the one that puts it all together.
Away QB: Gabbert appears to have hit a wall in his second year. He is leading the secondary to his targets and is not looking decisive or extremely confident on the field. It's almost like he is more afraid to make a mistake than wanting to make the play. Physically, he has the tools to be a successful quarterback but needs more playmakers around him. Gabbert has really missed RB Maurice Jones-Drew, who isn't expected back for a couple more weeks, and is not good enough to carry this team on his own shoulders with the tools he has to work with.
Key positional battle -- Jaguars' OL vs. Texans' DL: Jacksonville's offensive line has not given Gabbert a lot of time in the pocket and will be facing one of the better pressure fronts in the NFL this week. Houston defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is one of the best when it comes to dialing up a blitzing pressure package that can disrupt the pocket and force the quarterback into bad decisions. Don't be surprised to see offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski dial up a lot of one- and three-step drops to let Gabbert get the ball out quickly in order to beat the pass rush that Houston will bring.
Case for the underdog: If Jacksonville can get a big day from its receiving corps, this could be a close game. Cecil Shorts has the speed to burn virtually any secondary and Justin Blackmon can keep the chains moving with his ability to catch in traffic and advance the ball once it is in his hands. The Jags also need tight end Marcedes Lewis to hit a lot of those vacated zones when Houston blitzes its linebackers.
Film room nuggets: Foster is an elite back who brings a rare combination of size and speed to the field. Defenders consistently misjudge his speed as he turns the corner, plus he gets as many yards after initial contact as any back in the league. ... Lewis is an underused tight end in Jacksonville's system. He has a much higher percentage of receptions when the ball is thrown to him than any of the team's top pass-catchers other than Jones-Drew. ... Texans DE J.J. Watt is getting a lot of attention for his sack total, but he is also having a great year as a run defender. He is extremely active and quick to locate the level of the ball and squeeze the play down.
Prediction
Houston 30
Jacksonville 10
Houston can hurt you in so many ways on offense, and the Jaguars won't be able to keep pace. There is simply not enough talent on this Jacksonville team to compete with the Texans.
Nick Foles changes game plan for both teams
QB OL DL LB Coach = Redskins
RB WR DB ST = Eagles
Set the tempo with the ground game: The Eagles have been marginal rushing the passer this season but, with three against the Cowboys in Week 10 they showed why they led the league in sacks in 2011. Philadelphia has been inconsistent defending the run, while the Redskins are second in the league rushing the football (164.6 yards per game). Look for offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan to build his game plan around a power ground assault to set the tempo of the contest.
Tighten up pass protection: With a less mobile quarterback under center, the Eagles' offensive line will need to tighten up protection after yielding 29 sacks in nine games. The Redskins have only 14 sacks but could be more aggressive against rookie Nick Foles coming out of their bye week. With veteran tackles Jason Peters and Todd Herremans on IR, look for more maximum and slide protections and tighter line splits to keep the rookie quarterback upright.
Special teams and turnover battle: The Redskins are somewhat average in the kicking game, with two punts blocked and unimpressive return yardage. Both clubs have been inconsistent with their coverage units, while Alex Henery gives Philadelphia a clear advantage at place-kicker. Washington has the advantage in the turnover battle -- the Eagles are minus-11 and the Redskins are plus-7 -- especially in the red zone.
Home QB: Robert Griffin III is the most athletic young quarterback to enter the league since Michael Vick came on the scene in 2001. He is coming off an average performance, mostly due to being under pressure, in the Redskins' Week 9 loss to the Panthers. Griffin has adequate size with great athleticism and excellent arm strength. He shows great poise in the pocket given his inexperience, with vision and instincts to find open targets in the passing game. He is a natural playmaker out of the pocket with speed and quickness to move the chains. RG3 is a dynamic athlete who can take over a game, but he'll need more time to operate to perform better in Week 11.
Away QB: Foles gets his first NFL start in this game, so it will likely be a run-first mentality for Andy Reid and the offensive staff. Foles has excellent size and arm strength. He has good touch on the long ball and showed good accuracy on his short and intermediate throws. He is a pocket passer who appears somewhat average when improvising outside the tackle box. Foles has talent, but his lack of experience and mobility will clearly change the game-planning for both teams.
Key positional battle -- Redskins' secondary vs. Eagles' receivers: Washington has been poor defending the pass, while Philadelphia fields explosive perimeter targets in DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin while also having an athletic tight end in Brent Celek. If Reid decides to put the ball up often against this Redskins secondary, it could be the key to who wins this contest. But that remains to be seen because of the quarterback situation.
Featured player: Eagles running back LeSean McCoy has great vision, quickness and burst to and through the hole to pick up chunks of yards. He can bounce from one tackle to the other with speed to get outside. He is a reliable receiver out of the backfield with good run-after-catch ability. He doesn't have great size but has deceptive power on contact. He had another solid game against the Cowboys in Week 10 and usually gets 18 to 25 touches a game. Opposing coordinators have to game plan for the gifted McCoy.
Film room nuggets: Jackson is an undersized wide receiver with excellent quickness that often distorts angles. He is a bit of a glider, but when he needs to get separation he shows burst out of his stem. Defenders have backed off him to guard against the big play. ... Rookie running back Alfred Morris has carried the load for the Redskins' ground assault. He has patience to find a crease and power to move the pile. He's had limited touches in the passing game, but he is effective as a receiver and blocker in this phase of the game.
Prediction
Washington 27
Philadelphia 23
Both teams have talented players in all three phases but suffer from an execution problem in many areas. With Washington coming off a bye week and being at home and Philadelphia playing a rookie quarterback, I'll give the nod to the Redskins.
Bucs-Panthers:
Bucs' run D could be the difference
QB LB DB ST = Panthers
RB WR OL DL Coach = Bucs
Tampa Bay needs to keep the momentum up front: The Buccaneers have done a phenomenal job replacing injured linemen this year. Both starting guards, Davin Joseph and Carl Nicks, were lost to injuries. They are doing a great job of protecting the pocket as well as opening up running lanes for rookie RB Doug Martin. Look for more of their power running game as they try to maintain ball control and eat up the clock.
Protect the football: Carolina's inability to protect the football has contributed to its woes this season. QB Cam Newton has accounted for 13 turnovers by himself -- 10 interceptions and three fumbles. You can't keep giving your opponent a short field, especially when playing a team like Tampa Bay. The Bucs have a turnover margin of plus-9 and do an excellent job of creating turnovers.
Limit Tampa Bay's RAC: Tampa Bay receivers Vincent Jackson (22.9) and Mike Williams (17.4) are among the leaders in yards per catch. They are not burners but have excellent run-after-catch instincts and the size and strength to break tackles and gain yards after initial contact. Carolina has not been a good tackling team this year, especially in the secondary. If the Panthers hope to keep this game close, they need to swarm to the ball and limit the receivers' ability to tack on yards.
Home QB: Newton is struggling through a very uneven second year. After taking the league by storm in 2011, he hasn't been nearly as decisive and is throwing way too many interceptions. He is holding the ball too long and appears to be staring down his primary target, giving the defense a good clue about where the ball is going. He has all the physical tools but needs to mature as a leader both on and off the field.
Away QB: After struggling through a tough third year in 2011, Josh Freeman has rebounded in a big way in 2012. He is showing the poise in the pocket that we saw in 2010 and is doing an excellent job protecting the football. He has thrown just five interceptions -- none in the last four games -- and has 18 touchdown passes. He is more mobile in the pocket this year. He is making good decisions and throws when he has to extend the play and throw on the move. He has definitely benefited from a strong ground game from Martin.
Key positional battle -- Buccaneers' RBs vs. Panthers' LBs: Martin, Tampa Bay's rookie phenom at running back, is well on his way to a 1,000-yard season. He is averaging 5 yards a carry. LeGarrette Blount as a backup gives the Buccaneers a powerful one-two punch as long as Blount holds onto the ball. Both backs run with a strong base and get a lot of yards after initial contact. Carolina's linebackers are quick and athletic. Rookie LB Luke Kuechly is leading the team in tackles and looking like a future star.
Case for the underdog: Carolina needs a huge game from the quarterback position, and Newton is definitely capable. He gives Carolina a guy who can put up huge numbers in the passing game and also leads the team in rushing yards. Expect Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan to use a lot of different pressure packages as he tries to force Newton into getting the ball out sooner than he would like.
Film room nuggets: The connection between Newton and WR Steve Smith has just not been there this year. Smith is catching just more than half of the balls that have been thrown his way. He has lost a step with age, but the biggest issue is that Newton is not putting the ball where Smith likes to catch it. He is not big enough to go up in a crowd and come down with the ball on a consistent basis.
Prediction
Tampa Bay 24
Carolina 20
Tampa Bay has quietly put together one of the league's toughest run defensesr. The Bucs will make it very difficult for the Panthers to move the ball on the ground. The Bucs should score just enough to come out ahead.
Jaguars-Texans:
Jaguars' secondary must adjust
QB RB WR OL DL LB DB ST Coach = Texans
Jacksonville must tighten its coverage: Against the Colts last Thursday night, the Jaguars' cornerbacks were playing loose coverage way too often. When the opponent is running basic, two-receiver routes, cornerbacks need to tighten up in coverage. Houston's receivers have as much, if not more, speed as those of the Colts and quarterback Matt Schaub will be quicker at going through his progressions than Colts rookie Andrew Luck. If Jacksonville's cornerbacks are playing as far off as they did last week, Schaub will have a big game.
Share the load in the backfield: Houston's Arian Foster, a workhorse back who is averaging 25 carries a game, will be looking at a short week to recover. Although he appears to be tireless, it only makes sense to give backup Justin Forsett more carries in this game, not only to provide a nice change of pace but to keep Foster's legs fresh for what is likely going to be a more physical in Detroit in Week 12.
Look for more no-huddle by the Jaguars: Against the Colts, QB Blaine Gabbert seemed to look more at ease when the Jaguars were running the no-huddle, as he was making quicker decisions and getting the ball out more quickly. Against a Houston defense that likes to use a lot of situational substituting, a no-huddle approach could give Gabbert more time in the pocket to make his reads and go through his progressions.
Home QB: Schaub is a very solid quarterback who may not jump off the screen with an explosive arm or an extremely quick delivery, but he understands the offense and makes very few mistakes. He has two multiple-interception games but has also had no picks in five other games. He is more of a pocket passer than a scrambler or a guy who excels on the move, but is one of the best when it comes to selling the play-action fake and making quick decisions. Foster and WR Andre Johnson are the stars of this offense, but Schaub is the one that puts it all together.
Away QB: Gabbert appears to have hit a wall in his second year. He is leading the secondary to his targets and is not looking decisive or extremely confident on the field. It's almost like he is more afraid to make a mistake than wanting to make the play. Physically, he has the tools to be a successful quarterback but needs more playmakers around him. Gabbert has really missed RB Maurice Jones-Drew, who isn't expected back for a couple more weeks, and is not good enough to carry this team on his own shoulders with the tools he has to work with.
Key positional battle -- Jaguars' OL vs. Texans' DL: Jacksonville's offensive line has not given Gabbert a lot of time in the pocket and will be facing one of the better pressure fronts in the NFL this week. Houston defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is one of the best when it comes to dialing up a blitzing pressure package that can disrupt the pocket and force the quarterback into bad decisions. Don't be surprised to see offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski dial up a lot of one- and three-step drops to let Gabbert get the ball out quickly in order to beat the pass rush that Houston will bring.
Case for the underdog: If Jacksonville can get a big day from its receiving corps, this could be a close game. Cecil Shorts has the speed to burn virtually any secondary and Justin Blackmon can keep the chains moving with his ability to catch in traffic and advance the ball once it is in his hands. The Jags also need tight end Marcedes Lewis to hit a lot of those vacated zones when Houston blitzes its linebackers.
Film room nuggets: Foster is an elite back who brings a rare combination of size and speed to the field. Defenders consistently misjudge his speed as he turns the corner, plus he gets as many yards after initial contact as any back in the league. ... Lewis is an underused tight end in Jacksonville's system. He has a much higher percentage of receptions when the ball is thrown to him than any of the team's top pass-catchers other than Jones-Drew. ... Texans DE J.J. Watt is getting a lot of attention for his sack total, but he is also having a great year as a run defender. He is extremely active and quick to locate the level of the ball and squeeze the play down.
Prediction
Houston 30
Jacksonville 10
Houston can hurt you in so many ways on offense, and the Jaguars won't be able to keep pace. There is simply not enough talent on this Jacksonville team to compete with the Texans.
Saints-Raiders:
Expect Saints to attack Oakland's suspect secondary
QB RB WR OL DL LB DB Coach = Saints
ST = Raiders
Look for the Saints to air it out: The Raiders have been giving up passing yards by the bucketful this year and will now have to face one of the most explosive passing teams in the NFL. In last week's 55-20 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, the Raiders gave up a passing play of more than 25 yards to five different receivers. Saints QB Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense will likely challenge this porous secondary with a lot of downfield passes.
Oakland needs to manufacture a ground game: Against a traditionally stout Baltimore run defense, the Raiders gained just 72 yards on 24 carries with fullback/tight end Marcel Reece leading the way with 48 yards. The Raiders need to do everything possible to sustain drives with a clock-eating ground game in order to keep the ball out of the hands of the explosive New Orleans offense. The last thing this team can afford is a high percentage of three-and-outs.
Win on special teams: The Raiders have arguably the best punter/kicker pair in the NFL. What the Raiders cannot afford to do is to give up another explosive return like the 104-yard kickoff return Baltimore's Jacoby Jones came up last week.
Home QB: Carson Palmer can be a difference-maker when surrounded by a quality cast. Unfortunately for him, he is not working with a highly skilled receiving corps and is not getting a lot of protection in the pocket. He understands offensive schemes and is quick to read coverages and go through his progressions, but is not going to buy a lot of time when pressured and will be a bit erratic when throwing on the move.
Away QB: Drew Brees is definitely a difference-maker and can raise the level of the whole team with his play. He is one of the most accurate passers in the league and knows when to step up in the pocket or when he needs to escape to the side to extend plays. He throws an easy ball to catch and can hit narrow windows when needed. Few quarterbacks do a better job of distributing the ball to all available targets like Brees.
Key positional battle -- Saints' receivers vs. Raiders' secondary: Oakland uses a lot of nickel and dime coverage packages on obvious passing downs, and against the Saints virtually every play is a passing down. Brees likes to spread out the wealth and use all of his receiving weapons, which makes it hard for a defense to focus on any one, or two, targets.
Featured player: Few players carry a team like Brees. He does not let a vocal home team crowd affect his play and is one of the calmest and coolest customers in the league in the pocket. Against a relatively porous secondary like the Raiders', Brees is apt to come up with huge numbers in the passing game. Watch how he distributes the ball and uses his eyes to maneuver the secondary and find the open receiver.
Film room nuggets: The Raiders are bringing back the downfield passing attack with Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey. Each WR is averaging in excess of 15 yards per catch. These guys have excellent downfield speed and have improved on their ability to adjust and react to the ball coming over their shoulder. ... Second-year Saints DE Cameron Jordan is developing into a quality edge rusher. He is explosive off the ball along and uses counter moves when speed alone won't do it.
Prediction
New Orleans 31
Oakland 20
The Saints should put up a lot of yards, and points, on the Raiders' secondary. With no running game to speak of, the Raiders will struggle to keep Palmer upright against a defense that appears to be improving.
Chargers-Broncos:
Chargers don't have enough to take down Denver
QB RB WR OL LB DB ST Coach = Broncos
DL = Chargers
San Diego must protect the pocket: Denver has arguably the most dynamic pass rush in the NFL as it leads the league in sacks with 31. Defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio is doing an excellent job of designing blitz packages with LB Von Miller and DE Elvis Dumervil coming off the edge, although Dumervil's status will be in question for this game. The Chargers have been among the league's worst when it comes to getting their quarterback sacked and throwing interceptions. Look for more two-tight end sets as the Chargers do whatever it takes to keep Philip Rivers upright.
Protect the football: The Broncos have fumbled the ball away 12 times, second most in the NFL. RB Willis McGahee has lost four fumbles, most of which have come from fighting for extra yards. You can't keep giving opponents a short field with which to and expect to win all the time. Fortunately for the Broncos, their opponent, the Chargers, have even more giveaways, thanks to their 12 interceptions. This could be a huge factor Sunday.
Spread the wealth: Few quarterbacks do a better job of distributing the ball to all of his weapons than Peyton Manning. He has six receivers with at least 23 receptions. His pre-snap reads allow Manning to determine early which side of the field to go to and he rarely tries to force the ball to the wrong target. With all the personnel groupings and multiple-receiver sets he has available, it is fun to watch Manning distribute the ball.
Home QB: Manning is one of the best at pre-snap reads and checking out of bad plays and into good ones. He understands offensive schemes and how to read coverages. He is not the most agile or quick-footed quarterback but has enough foot agility and feel for the rush that he can side step the rush or step up in the pocket to buy time while keeping his eyes downfield. He is definitely a difference-maker and automatically gives his team a chance to win.
Away QB: Rivers has prototypical dimensions for the position along with a strong arm that allows him to make all the throws necessary at this level. He can be a precise passer who hits narrow windows and has enough foot quickness and agility to buy time, although he works more effectively from a solid pocket. He has a tendency to force some throws and has been haunted by inconsistency for pretty much his whole career. When he is on he can compete with the best, and will make his receivers look good by putting the ball where only they have a chance to catch it.
Key positional battle -- Broncos' DEs vs. Chargers' OTs: I'm including Miller with Denver's defensive ends as he often gets down in a three-point stance to be an edge rusher on passing downs. Denver brings a lot of heat off the edge with Miller and Dumervil, or Dumervil's replacement, coming from the outside. San Diego's tackles will have their hands full as they try to contain these two. They'll need to be on top of their game.
Featured player: San Diego needs a big game from RB Ryan Mathews. You can't get into a track meet if you want to beat Manning and these Broncos. If Mathews can get on track and help his Chargers eat up a lot of the clock and maintain good field position, the Chargers can keep the ball out of Manning's hands.
Film room nuggets: WR Demaryius Thomas is finally showing why the Broncos drafted him in the first round in 2010. He is showing consistency and big-play ability. He has caught 71 percent of the passes thrown his direction and has become a lot more precise in his route running. ... Rivers is throwing a higher percentage of interceptions this year. but it's not all his fault. He was able to throw a lot more passes into crowds when he had Vincent Jackson, as Jackson would win more than his share of jump balls. ... Broncos LB Keith Brooking has definitely lost a step over the years, but his ability to get the defense lined up and make the right calls makes him invaluable.
Prediction
Denver 31
San Diego 21
San Diego has yet to beat a team with a .500 or better record, and it's not apt to happen this week. Denver can score from so many different ways and will be too much for the Chargers' defense.
Colts-Patriots: What to watch
Luck's Colts are hot, but Brady's Patriots are a test
QB RB WR OL DL LB Coach = Patriots
DB ST = Colts
Keep Brady on the sideline: The Patriots are explosive offensively, so Indianapolis would be smart to limit New England's possessions with an effective running attack. New England has been inconsistent defending the run. The Colts have improved rushing the football, gaining 138 yards against the Jaguars last week and averaging 109.4 yards this season. Look for Colts offensive coordinator/interim head coach Bruce Arians to try to keep Tom Brady on the sideline with interior runs by Donald Brown and Vick Ballard, and by stretching the edges with jet sweeps or a reverse with rookie wide receiver T.Y. Hilton.
Give Luck time in pocket: The Colts have been inconsistent protecting rookie quarterback Andrew Luck, who was under pressure often against a poor Jacksonville front last week. With Indianapolis banged up along the offensive line, expect an aggressive game plan from Patriots coach Bill Belichick. Look for Arians to tighten the Colts' line splits and use more maximum protections and a quick passing game to keep Luck upright.
Continue to be balanced offensively: New England has been more balanced on offense in 2012 (146.0 yards rushing, 284.3 yards passing) than in recent years. The Colts have been inconsistent on defense in both phases. Look for Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to use a downhill power running game between the tackles with Stevan Ridley while attacking Indianapolis at all levels in the passing game.
Home QB: Brady is coming off another solid game, completing 61 percent of his passes and throwing for two touchdowns. He is an average athlete and rarely creates outside the tackle box. He can drive the football when he needs to but has great touch in the short passing game. He has outstanding vision and ability to find his second and third options. He is successful with great timing and accuracy with the ability to check off, putting his offense into the right play. Brady has excellent size and arm strength and brings great leadership to the Patriots.
Away QB: Luck completed 69 percent of his passes in Week 10 and ran for two touchdowns. He has an excellent combination of size, strength and athleticism for the position. He has great vision and instincts for a rookie. He shows poise beyond his years and can make all of the throws in crucial situations. Luck is an outstanding young quarterback who has showed mental toughness and leadership.
Key positional battle -- Patriots' receivers vs. Colts' secondary: The Patriots field talented perimeter targets in Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker along with arguably the best tight end duo in the league, with Aaron Hernandez possibly back and Rob Gronkowski. The Colts have an athletic secondary that has seen only one explosive passing game (Green Bay) this season. They did a nice job defending Aaron Rodgers, sacking him five times, and will need a similar effort up front to keep Brady from having a big day. Look for this positional battle to determine the outcome.
Featured player: Gronkowski creates matchup problems for any defensive coordinator with his length, athleticism and strength. He had only three receptions in Week 10 but will likely be more involved versus the Colts. He is tough to get on the ground and often turns short passes into big gainers. Gronkowski had a record-setting season for tight ends in 2011. His numbers are down in 2012, but he continues to be the Patriots' most productive touchdown maker.
Film room nuggets: Versatile Patriots running back Danny Woodhead is a short, compact athlete who is a challenge to corral. His quickness, instincts and stature enable him to get lost in the shuffle in the running game. ... Rookie wide receiver Hilton has shown great speed and burst as a route runner, after the catch and when he touches the ball in the running game. He is a bit of a glider and appears to surprise defenders as he eats up their cushion downfield.
Prediction
New England 30
Indianapolis 24
The Colts are on a roll, winning five of their past six, and the Patriots have been exposed defensively in recent weeks. Luck is playing at a high level, but Brady and Belichick won't let this one get away at home.
Expect Saints to attack Oakland's suspect secondary
QB RB WR OL DL LB DB Coach = Saints
ST = Raiders
Look for the Saints to air it out: The Raiders have been giving up passing yards by the bucketful this year and will now have to face one of the most explosive passing teams in the NFL. In last week's 55-20 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, the Raiders gave up a passing play of more than 25 yards to five different receivers. Saints QB Drew Brees and the New Orleans offense will likely challenge this porous secondary with a lot of downfield passes.
Oakland needs to manufacture a ground game: Against a traditionally stout Baltimore run defense, the Raiders gained just 72 yards on 24 carries with fullback/tight end Marcel Reece leading the way with 48 yards. The Raiders need to do everything possible to sustain drives with a clock-eating ground game in order to keep the ball out of the hands of the explosive New Orleans offense. The last thing this team can afford is a high percentage of three-and-outs.
Win on special teams: The Raiders have arguably the best punter/kicker pair in the NFL. What the Raiders cannot afford to do is to give up another explosive return like the 104-yard kickoff return Baltimore's Jacoby Jones came up last week.
Home QB: Carson Palmer can be a difference-maker when surrounded by a quality cast. Unfortunately for him, he is not working with a highly skilled receiving corps and is not getting a lot of protection in the pocket. He understands offensive schemes and is quick to read coverages and go through his progressions, but is not going to buy a lot of time when pressured and will be a bit erratic when throwing on the move.
Away QB: Drew Brees is definitely a difference-maker and can raise the level of the whole team with his play. He is one of the most accurate passers in the league and knows when to step up in the pocket or when he needs to escape to the side to extend plays. He throws an easy ball to catch and can hit narrow windows when needed. Few quarterbacks do a better job of distributing the ball to all available targets like Brees.
Key positional battle -- Saints' receivers vs. Raiders' secondary: Oakland uses a lot of nickel and dime coverage packages on obvious passing downs, and against the Saints virtually every play is a passing down. Brees likes to spread out the wealth and use all of his receiving weapons, which makes it hard for a defense to focus on any one, or two, targets.
Featured player: Few players carry a team like Brees. He does not let a vocal home team crowd affect his play and is one of the calmest and coolest customers in the league in the pocket. Against a relatively porous secondary like the Raiders', Brees is apt to come up with huge numbers in the passing game. Watch how he distributes the ball and uses his eyes to maneuver the secondary and find the open receiver.
Film room nuggets: The Raiders are bringing back the downfield passing attack with Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey. Each WR is averaging in excess of 15 yards per catch. These guys have excellent downfield speed and have improved on their ability to adjust and react to the ball coming over their shoulder. ... Second-year Saints DE Cameron Jordan is developing into a quality edge rusher. He is explosive off the ball along and uses counter moves when speed alone won't do it.
Prediction
New Orleans 31
Oakland 20
The Saints should put up a lot of yards, and points, on the Raiders' secondary. With no running game to speak of, the Raiders will struggle to keep Palmer upright against a defense that appears to be improving.
Chargers-Broncos:
Chargers don't have enough to take down Denver
QB RB WR OL LB DB ST Coach = Broncos
DL = Chargers
San Diego must protect the pocket: Denver has arguably the most dynamic pass rush in the NFL as it leads the league in sacks with 31. Defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio is doing an excellent job of designing blitz packages with LB Von Miller and DE Elvis Dumervil coming off the edge, although Dumervil's status will be in question for this game. The Chargers have been among the league's worst when it comes to getting their quarterback sacked and throwing interceptions. Look for more two-tight end sets as the Chargers do whatever it takes to keep Philip Rivers upright.
Protect the football: The Broncos have fumbled the ball away 12 times, second most in the NFL. RB Willis McGahee has lost four fumbles, most of which have come from fighting for extra yards. You can't keep giving opponents a short field with which to and expect to win all the time. Fortunately for the Broncos, their opponent, the Chargers, have even more giveaways, thanks to their 12 interceptions. This could be a huge factor Sunday.
Spread the wealth: Few quarterbacks do a better job of distributing the ball to all of his weapons than Peyton Manning. He has six receivers with at least 23 receptions. His pre-snap reads allow Manning to determine early which side of the field to go to and he rarely tries to force the ball to the wrong target. With all the personnel groupings and multiple-receiver sets he has available, it is fun to watch Manning distribute the ball.
Home QB: Manning is one of the best at pre-snap reads and checking out of bad plays and into good ones. He understands offensive schemes and how to read coverages. He is not the most agile or quick-footed quarterback but has enough foot agility and feel for the rush that he can side step the rush or step up in the pocket to buy time while keeping his eyes downfield. He is definitely a difference-maker and automatically gives his team a chance to win.
Away QB: Rivers has prototypical dimensions for the position along with a strong arm that allows him to make all the throws necessary at this level. He can be a precise passer who hits narrow windows and has enough foot quickness and agility to buy time, although he works more effectively from a solid pocket. He has a tendency to force some throws and has been haunted by inconsistency for pretty much his whole career. When he is on he can compete with the best, and will make his receivers look good by putting the ball where only they have a chance to catch it.
Key positional battle -- Broncos' DEs vs. Chargers' OTs: I'm including Miller with Denver's defensive ends as he often gets down in a three-point stance to be an edge rusher on passing downs. Denver brings a lot of heat off the edge with Miller and Dumervil, or Dumervil's replacement, coming from the outside. San Diego's tackles will have their hands full as they try to contain these two. They'll need to be on top of their game.
Featured player: San Diego needs a big game from RB Ryan Mathews. You can't get into a track meet if you want to beat Manning and these Broncos. If Mathews can get on track and help his Chargers eat up a lot of the clock and maintain good field position, the Chargers can keep the ball out of Manning's hands.
Film room nuggets: WR Demaryius Thomas is finally showing why the Broncos drafted him in the first round in 2010. He is showing consistency and big-play ability. He has caught 71 percent of the passes thrown his direction and has become a lot more precise in his route running. ... Rivers is throwing a higher percentage of interceptions this year. but it's not all his fault. He was able to throw a lot more passes into crowds when he had Vincent Jackson, as Jackson would win more than his share of jump balls. ... Broncos LB Keith Brooking has definitely lost a step over the years, but his ability to get the defense lined up and make the right calls makes him invaluable.
Prediction
Denver 31
San Diego 21
San Diego has yet to beat a team with a .500 or better record, and it's not apt to happen this week. Denver can score from so many different ways and will be too much for the Chargers' defense.
Colts-Patriots: What to watch
Luck's Colts are hot, but Brady's Patriots are a test
QB RB WR OL DL LB Coach = Patriots
DB ST = Colts
Keep Brady on the sideline: The Patriots are explosive offensively, so Indianapolis would be smart to limit New England's possessions with an effective running attack. New England has been inconsistent defending the run. The Colts have improved rushing the football, gaining 138 yards against the Jaguars last week and averaging 109.4 yards this season. Look for Colts offensive coordinator/interim head coach Bruce Arians to try to keep Tom Brady on the sideline with interior runs by Donald Brown and Vick Ballard, and by stretching the edges with jet sweeps or a reverse with rookie wide receiver T.Y. Hilton.
Give Luck time in pocket: The Colts have been inconsistent protecting rookie quarterback Andrew Luck, who was under pressure often against a poor Jacksonville front last week. With Indianapolis banged up along the offensive line, expect an aggressive game plan from Patriots coach Bill Belichick. Look for Arians to tighten the Colts' line splits and use more maximum protections and a quick passing game to keep Luck upright.
Continue to be balanced offensively: New England has been more balanced on offense in 2012 (146.0 yards rushing, 284.3 yards passing) than in recent years. The Colts have been inconsistent on defense in both phases. Look for Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to use a downhill power running game between the tackles with Stevan Ridley while attacking Indianapolis at all levels in the passing game.
Home QB: Brady is coming off another solid game, completing 61 percent of his passes and throwing for two touchdowns. He is an average athlete and rarely creates outside the tackle box. He can drive the football when he needs to but has great touch in the short passing game. He has outstanding vision and ability to find his second and third options. He is successful with great timing and accuracy with the ability to check off, putting his offense into the right play. Brady has excellent size and arm strength and brings great leadership to the Patriots.
Away QB: Luck completed 69 percent of his passes in Week 10 and ran for two touchdowns. He has an excellent combination of size, strength and athleticism for the position. He has great vision and instincts for a rookie. He shows poise beyond his years and can make all of the throws in crucial situations. Luck is an outstanding young quarterback who has showed mental toughness and leadership.
Key positional battle -- Patriots' receivers vs. Colts' secondary: The Patriots field talented perimeter targets in Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker along with arguably the best tight end duo in the league, with Aaron Hernandez possibly back and Rob Gronkowski. The Colts have an athletic secondary that has seen only one explosive passing game (Green Bay) this season. They did a nice job defending Aaron Rodgers, sacking him five times, and will need a similar effort up front to keep Brady from having a big day. Look for this positional battle to determine the outcome.
Featured player: Gronkowski creates matchup problems for any defensive coordinator with his length, athleticism and strength. He had only three receptions in Week 10 but will likely be more involved versus the Colts. He is tough to get on the ground and often turns short passes into big gainers. Gronkowski had a record-setting season for tight ends in 2011. His numbers are down in 2012, but he continues to be the Patriots' most productive touchdown maker.
Film room nuggets: Versatile Patriots running back Danny Woodhead is a short, compact athlete who is a challenge to corral. His quickness, instincts and stature enable him to get lost in the shuffle in the running game. ... Rookie wide receiver Hilton has shown great speed and burst as a route runner, after the catch and when he touches the ball in the running game. He is a bit of a glider and appears to surprise defenders as he eats up their cushion downfield.
Prediction
New England 30
Indianapolis 24
The Colts are on a roll, winning five of their past six, and the Patriots have been exposed defensively in recent weeks. Luck is playing at a high level, but Brady and Belichick won't let this one get away at home.
Ravens-Steelers:
Expect a physical battle
QB RB OL ST = Ravens
WR DL LB DB Coach = Steelers
Keep the Steelers guessing: The Steelers' defense is banged up and was exploited some versus the Chiefs on Monday, yielding 142 yards rushing. The Ravens exploded for 55 points in Week 10, and most of their production was through the air. Baltimore has been built around Ray Rice and a physical ground attack, but the emergence of its passing game could keep the Steelers guessing. Look for Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to use a good mixture of high-percentage passes off play-action and a physical running attack on early downs to control tempo.
Establish the run early: The Ravens are without Ray Lewis, their captain and primary run-stopper in the middle of the defense. They have been inconsistent defending the run and are giving up 132 yards per contest. They were solid versus the Raiders in Week 10, giving up only 70 yards, but were gashed the previous four games, in which they gave up 116, 181, 227 and 214 yards on the ground. Look for Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley to work on establishing a physical ground attack between the tackles with backs Jonathan Dwyer, Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman. All should be available for this important contest.
Special teams and turnover battle: This should be a closely contested divisional battle. Both clubs have excellent place-kickers and punters, but the Ravens appear to have an advantage in the return phase of the game. Baltimore is plus-9 in turnovers, and Pittsburgh is even but had three fumbles Monday night. Taking care of the football could determine this week's outcome.
Home QB: Ben Roethlisberger is out with a shoulder injury, so Byron Leftwich will get the nod. Leftwich is a 10-year veteran with good size and arm strength. He has limited mobility and operates best from the pocket. He has a long delivery, which often gives defenders more time to jump routes. He has a good grasp of the Steelers' offense and shouldn't struggle with adjustments, but he can't extend the play like Roethlisberger can. Leftwich is an adequate backup but the game plan clearly will be more conservative.
Away QB: Joe Flacco is a big, strong, athletic quarterback coming off one of his best outings as a pro. He had 341 yards and three touchdown passes against the Raiders in Week 10. He has been more patient in the pocket in 2012 and does a nice job of taking what the defense gives him. He has a powerful arm and can fit the ball into tight spaces. He is most comfortable in the pocket but can pull the ball down and extend the play outside the tackle box.
Key positional battle -- Steelers' WR corps vs. Ravens' secondary: Even with Antonio Brown possibly out with an ankle injury, the Steelers can field a formidable group of perimeter targets, including Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery. They also have tight end Heath Miller. All are excellent route runners who can pick up chunks of yards, but Wallace is the most dangerous threat downfield. Baltimore is without CB Lardarius Webb (on injured reserve) but still has an athletic secondary that should match up well with Pittsburgh.
Featured player: Rice continues to be one of the most productive backs in the league. The Ravens' offense is built around him -- he accounts for almost 30 percent of the offense. He is Baltimore's most reliable chain mover. He has great vision and inline run skills with power to move the pile. He is an excellent receiver out of the backfield and is often Flacco's security blanket. Rice brings stability, attitude and leadership to the Ravens' roster.
Film room nuggets: Ravens WR Jacoby Jones has shown great speed, quickness and vision in the open field. He is dangerous after the catch, averaging 17 yards per reception. His explosiveness is most evident, though, as a kick returner. ... Wallace can get behind defenders quickly. His initial push off the line of scrimmage and pure speed often eat up a defender's cushion before he can recover.
Prediction
Baltimore 24
Pittsburgh 23
This divisional battle has always been one of the most physical in the entire league. Both clubs are built with a blue-collar mentality, and most games go down to the wire. But Roethlisberger's absence gives the edge to the visiting Ravens.
Bears-49ers:
O-line play, special teams loom large
QB RB WR OL LB DB Coach = 49ers
DL ST = Bears
Both teams must protect the football: This is a real area of strength for both of these well-coached teams. The 49ers just don't turn the ball over on offense, with only nine for the season, and we know the Bears' defense can create takeaways and big plays in bunches. With the possibility of backup QBs playing in this game, there is a chance that the play calling could be very conservative. Both defenses will try to dial up pressure to force mistakes. Both teams need to put the game into the hands of their run game and defense -- and not lose it with QB mistakes.
Pass protection is critical: Neither offensive line has been very good at protecting the quarterback, although we expect a lot more from the 49ers than we do from the Bears. Chicago will bring mostly four-man pressures without blitzes, and that makes a scheme easy to identify. If the 49ers see seven-step drops, they have an excellent chance to collapse the pocket. This could very easily be a game that is won in the trenches.
Special teams are key: Both coaching staffs put an emphasis on playing well in the kicking game and what it means in terms of field position. Ted Ginn Jr. and Kyle Williams for San Francisco and Devin Hester for Chicago are elite return men capable of big plays. Both teams are usually good when it comes to gap discipline and not giving up big lanes, but the 49ers have not been quite as sharp on special teams overall. Against the Rams in Week 10, San Francisco allowed two fake field goals to be converted into first downs -- and that must be cleaned up. This has the feel of a close, low-scoring game, especially if Cutler and Smith are limited or do not play, and a big return could be the difference.
Home QB: Alex Smith is coming off a concussion versus the Rams and might not be ready to play. He does not make a lot of explosive plays in the passing game, but most of his throws are on target and he does not make a lot of bad decisions. He also has underrated ability to make plays with his feet and scramble out of trouble. If Colin Kaepernick plays, he has a different skill set. His accuracy versus St. Louis was inconsistent, but he is a tremendous threat to run with the football -- either on scrambles, options or Wildcat-type looks. The 49ers' coaches will dial back the complexity of this passing game with Kaepernick. They will give him more short and safe throws versus this disciplined Bears Cover 2 defense, meaning big plays will be hard to come by.
Away QB: Jay Cutler, who suffered a concussion on a hit from Houston's Tim Dobbins, has been ruled out for this game. With Jason Campbell playing in place of Cutler, look for the 49ers to bring the blitz like Houston did in Week 10. He has shown that extra pressure bothers him.
Key positional battle -- 49ers' ILBs vs. Bears' RBs: All four of San Francisco's LBs are playmakers with range, but the ILB duo of Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman can give the Bears fits. Both guys step up and fill quickly versus the inside run, and the guys up front do a nice job of occupying blockers to let these guys fly to the football without getting tied up a lot in blocks. The Bears' backs, Matt Forte and Michael Bush, must get to the hole quickly and make some yards after contact. The biggest challenge for these backs may be in pass blocking/blitz pickup, especially if Willis and Bowman attack the A-gaps.
Featured player: Chicago WR Brandon Marshall is the ultimate playmaker for this offense and its best deep threat. Cutler looks to Marshall a lot and their chemistry and trust are really good. You would expect the 49ers to use combo/double coverages to take Marshall out of the game. Even though Marshall is big, we might see the 49ers' secondary play press man coverages with their corners and get some safety help over the top to take away Cutlers' deep ball. The Bears need to move Marshall around the formation with motion and work him some out of the slot to avoid the jam at the line of scrimmage. When Cutler can stretch the field with Marshall it opens things up for the run game and underneath passing game, but can this Bears' O-line block long enough for seven-step drops?
Film room nuggets: As good as the Bears' pass-rush pressure is, they get to the QB without a lot of blitzes. ... In Week 10, the Rams seemed to physically win in the trenches versus the usually physical 49ers and were very creative in their play calling -- something that San Francisco usually does best. ... The 49ers are a really good play-action offense with Smith. They use a lot of "heavy" personnel, which draws defenders to the box, and they run the ball well to force opposing defenses to play honest and not sit back in coverage.
Prediction
San Francisco 21
Chicago 14
These teams are really evenly matched with a lot of similarities. Both teams have questions at QB, but the 49ers have more playmakers and will use playing at home to eke out a win.
Expect a physical battle
QB RB OL ST = Ravens
WR DL LB DB Coach = Steelers
Keep the Steelers guessing: The Steelers' defense is banged up and was exploited some versus the Chiefs on Monday, yielding 142 yards rushing. The Ravens exploded for 55 points in Week 10, and most of their production was through the air. Baltimore has been built around Ray Rice and a physical ground attack, but the emergence of its passing game could keep the Steelers guessing. Look for Ravens offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to use a good mixture of high-percentage passes off play-action and a physical running attack on early downs to control tempo.
Establish the run early: The Ravens are without Ray Lewis, their captain and primary run-stopper in the middle of the defense. They have been inconsistent defending the run and are giving up 132 yards per contest. They were solid versus the Raiders in Week 10, giving up only 70 yards, but were gashed the previous four games, in which they gave up 116, 181, 227 and 214 yards on the ground. Look for Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley to work on establishing a physical ground attack between the tackles with backs Jonathan Dwyer, Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman. All should be available for this important contest.
Special teams and turnover battle: This should be a closely contested divisional battle. Both clubs have excellent place-kickers and punters, but the Ravens appear to have an advantage in the return phase of the game. Baltimore is plus-9 in turnovers, and Pittsburgh is even but had three fumbles Monday night. Taking care of the football could determine this week's outcome.
Home QB: Ben Roethlisberger is out with a shoulder injury, so Byron Leftwich will get the nod. Leftwich is a 10-year veteran with good size and arm strength. He has limited mobility and operates best from the pocket. He has a long delivery, which often gives defenders more time to jump routes. He has a good grasp of the Steelers' offense and shouldn't struggle with adjustments, but he can't extend the play like Roethlisberger can. Leftwich is an adequate backup but the game plan clearly will be more conservative.
Away QB: Joe Flacco is a big, strong, athletic quarterback coming off one of his best outings as a pro. He had 341 yards and three touchdown passes against the Raiders in Week 10. He has been more patient in the pocket in 2012 and does a nice job of taking what the defense gives him. He has a powerful arm and can fit the ball into tight spaces. He is most comfortable in the pocket but can pull the ball down and extend the play outside the tackle box.
Key positional battle -- Steelers' WR corps vs. Ravens' secondary: Even with Antonio Brown possibly out with an ankle injury, the Steelers can field a formidable group of perimeter targets, including Mike Wallace, Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery. They also have tight end Heath Miller. All are excellent route runners who can pick up chunks of yards, but Wallace is the most dangerous threat downfield. Baltimore is without CB Lardarius Webb (on injured reserve) but still has an athletic secondary that should match up well with Pittsburgh.
Featured player: Rice continues to be one of the most productive backs in the league. The Ravens' offense is built around him -- he accounts for almost 30 percent of the offense. He is Baltimore's most reliable chain mover. He has great vision and inline run skills with power to move the pile. He is an excellent receiver out of the backfield and is often Flacco's security blanket. Rice brings stability, attitude and leadership to the Ravens' roster.
Film room nuggets: Ravens WR Jacoby Jones has shown great speed, quickness and vision in the open field. He is dangerous after the catch, averaging 17 yards per reception. His explosiveness is most evident, though, as a kick returner. ... Wallace can get behind defenders quickly. His initial push off the line of scrimmage and pure speed often eat up a defender's cushion before he can recover.
Prediction
Baltimore 24
Pittsburgh 23
This divisional battle has always been one of the most physical in the entire league. Both clubs are built with a blue-collar mentality, and most games go down to the wire. But Roethlisberger's absence gives the edge to the visiting Ravens.
Bears-49ers:
O-line play, special teams loom large
QB RB WR OL LB DB Coach = 49ers
DL ST = Bears
Both teams must protect the football: This is a real area of strength for both of these well-coached teams. The 49ers just don't turn the ball over on offense, with only nine for the season, and we know the Bears' defense can create takeaways and big plays in bunches. With the possibility of backup QBs playing in this game, there is a chance that the play calling could be very conservative. Both defenses will try to dial up pressure to force mistakes. Both teams need to put the game into the hands of their run game and defense -- and not lose it with QB mistakes.
Pass protection is critical: Neither offensive line has been very good at protecting the quarterback, although we expect a lot more from the 49ers than we do from the Bears. Chicago will bring mostly four-man pressures without blitzes, and that makes a scheme easy to identify. If the 49ers see seven-step drops, they have an excellent chance to collapse the pocket. This could very easily be a game that is won in the trenches.
Special teams are key: Both coaching staffs put an emphasis on playing well in the kicking game and what it means in terms of field position. Ted Ginn Jr. and Kyle Williams for San Francisco and Devin Hester for Chicago are elite return men capable of big plays. Both teams are usually good when it comes to gap discipline and not giving up big lanes, but the 49ers have not been quite as sharp on special teams overall. Against the Rams in Week 10, San Francisco allowed two fake field goals to be converted into first downs -- and that must be cleaned up. This has the feel of a close, low-scoring game, especially if Cutler and Smith are limited or do not play, and a big return could be the difference.
Home QB: Alex Smith is coming off a concussion versus the Rams and might not be ready to play. He does not make a lot of explosive plays in the passing game, but most of his throws are on target and he does not make a lot of bad decisions. He also has underrated ability to make plays with his feet and scramble out of trouble. If Colin Kaepernick plays, he has a different skill set. His accuracy versus St. Louis was inconsistent, but he is a tremendous threat to run with the football -- either on scrambles, options or Wildcat-type looks. The 49ers' coaches will dial back the complexity of this passing game with Kaepernick. They will give him more short and safe throws versus this disciplined Bears Cover 2 defense, meaning big plays will be hard to come by.
Away QB: Jay Cutler, who suffered a concussion on a hit from Houston's Tim Dobbins, has been ruled out for this game. With Jason Campbell playing in place of Cutler, look for the 49ers to bring the blitz like Houston did in Week 10. He has shown that extra pressure bothers him.
Key positional battle -- 49ers' ILBs vs. Bears' RBs: All four of San Francisco's LBs are playmakers with range, but the ILB duo of Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman can give the Bears fits. Both guys step up and fill quickly versus the inside run, and the guys up front do a nice job of occupying blockers to let these guys fly to the football without getting tied up a lot in blocks. The Bears' backs, Matt Forte and Michael Bush, must get to the hole quickly and make some yards after contact. The biggest challenge for these backs may be in pass blocking/blitz pickup, especially if Willis and Bowman attack the A-gaps.
Featured player: Chicago WR Brandon Marshall is the ultimate playmaker for this offense and its best deep threat. Cutler looks to Marshall a lot and their chemistry and trust are really good. You would expect the 49ers to use combo/double coverages to take Marshall out of the game. Even though Marshall is big, we might see the 49ers' secondary play press man coverages with their corners and get some safety help over the top to take away Cutlers' deep ball. The Bears need to move Marshall around the formation with motion and work him some out of the slot to avoid the jam at the line of scrimmage. When Cutler can stretch the field with Marshall it opens things up for the run game and underneath passing game, but can this Bears' O-line block long enough for seven-step drops?
Film room nuggets: As good as the Bears' pass-rush pressure is, they get to the QB without a lot of blitzes. ... In Week 10, the Rams seemed to physically win in the trenches versus the usually physical 49ers and were very creative in their play calling -- something that San Francisco usually does best. ... The 49ers are a really good play-action offense with Smith. They use a lot of "heavy" personnel, which draws defenders to the box, and they run the ball well to force opposing defenses to play honest and not sit back in coverage.
Prediction
San Francisco 21
Chicago 14
These teams are really evenly matched with a lot of similarities. Both teams have questions at QB, but the 49ers have more playmakers and will use playing at home to eke out a win.
Rocket Scientist
Superstar
"About damn time" we get updates from Skooby 
Texans-Lions:
Lions need more from defensive line
QB WR = Lions
RB OL DL LB DB ST Coach = Texans
Gash the Lions' D-line: The biggest mismatch in this game could be Houston's Arian Foster-led zone-rushing attack against the Lions' porous and undisciplined run defense. Detroit's front is far too aggressive overall, often just attacking upfield with reckless abandon. That allows for some huge openings, and Foster is fantastic at cutting back to daylight in such instances. Also, Houston's O-line is among the most disciplined and coordinated in the NFL. Detroit LB Stephen Tulloch is often left to clean up his line's mess, but he missed a lot of tackles last week.
Create big plays with pressure: Speaking of the Lions' defensive line, Detroit is not getting enough of a pass rush from its ends. Kyle Vanden Bosch in particular has been a liability. Nick Fairley has come on huge in his second season, especially as a pass-rusher. Detroit likes to move Fairley and Ndamukong Suh all over the defensive line, but when both are aligned at defensive tackle, they make up one of the best interior pass rushes in the NFL. Suh and Fairley had great games in Week 11. Duane Brown is quite possibly the best tackle in the league and Chris Myers is an exceptional center, but the right side of Houston's line has been problematic.
Keep Houston's defense in base personnel: We will almost never see the Lions in 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end) and they love having three wideouts on the field, which will often lend itself to Houston going to dime. But the Texans are far less frightening in their regular base 3-4 personnel, so Detroit might be wise to change its approach and utilize more 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends) for this matchup. When the Texans get into their sub packages, that is when they get exotic with blitzes. But Lions QB Matthew Stafford has done a great job versus the blitz this year. Houston's edge pass rush has been a problem, but there isn't a player dominating like J.J. Watt, whom the Texans will move all over their defensive front. Stafford was sacked five times by a Packers defense last week that was without Clay Matthews.
Home QB: Stafford was very up and down last week and missed throws that he should have made. That has been a recurring theme for this ultra-talented passer this season, as his mechanics are too unpredictable. The Texans do feature one of the top secondaries in the league and Johnathan Joseph should often draw the assignment of shadowing Calvin Johnson, Stafford's top option by a wide margin. But Jaguars WR Justin Blackmon torched this group for 236 yards last week. Houston allowed the downtrodden Jacksonville offense to throw for 372 yards with several coverage breakdowns to blame.
Away QB: It took overtime, but Houston did rack up 43 points in a winning effort last week. Matt Schaub threw for an amazing 527 yards in that game with five touchdowns and two interceptions on 55 attempts. He was remarkably accurate. This is not the formula Houston wants on offense, though. The play-action game is a staple of Houston's run-first offense and Schaub sells it very well. Chris Houston has played well for the Lions, but the rest of their secondary has been very beatable, especially if Louis Delmas is out of the lineup again, as he was last week.
Key positional battle -- Lions' RBs vs. Texans' run defense: Joique Bell is the back to whom Detroit likes to throw and he has been a heck of a find, but this team doesn't have much big-play ability at running back. Houston is among the most difficult teams in the league to run against and running backs are posting paltry numbers against the Texans. It could be a long day for Mikel Leshoure and Bell.
Featured player: No team plays more multiple-tight end sets than the Texans and Owen Daniels is quietly having an exceptional season as Houston's second option in the passing game. Daniels is fighting a hip issue, though. This offense rarely brings an extra wideout on the field, but it may do so this week to challenge a very thin Lions secondary. Andre Johnson might not be quite the same as he was in his prime, but he was simply amazing last week en route to racking up 273 receiving yards on 14 catches. Detroit doesn't have an answer for Johnson.
Film room nuggets: Dropped passes have been a huge problem for the Lions' receivers this year, including Calvin Johnson. TE Brandon Pettigrew has been troubled by drops but gets plenty of targets in Detroit's offense. He often gets favorable matchups due to the attention Johnson receives from opposing secondaries. A former first-round pick, Pettigrew is a solid two-way tight end, but he needs to take a step forward. ... The Lions' offensive line rarely gets a lot of credit, but collectively, it is having an excellent season, especially in the passing game. The Lions also really like Riley Reiff and will get him on the field as a sixth lineman quite a bit. Reiff could be the starting left tackle Thursday if Jeff Backus' hamstring doesn't heal on a very short week.
Prediction
Houston 27
Detroit 23
Could there be an upset for the home team on Thanksgiving? That certainly won't be the case if the Lions turn the ball over four times like they did in last week's loss to Green Bay. Expect a close game, but Houston narrowly prevails.
Redskins-Cowboys:
Offensive balance will be key for Cowboys at home
QB RB LB Coach = Redskins
WR OL DL DB ST = Cowboys
Make Dallas one-dimensional: The Cowboys struggle to win games without a balanced offensive attack. Dallas has been banged up in the backfield (running back DeMarco Murray is doubtful) and along the offensive line, and the Cowboys should struggle running the ball. On the flip side, Washington's defense is stronger against the run than the pass. The Redskins will look to stymie the run on early downs in order to give defensive coordinator Jim Haslett the opportunity to take more chances with man- and zone-blitz packages to force an inconsistent Cowboys offense into turnovers.
Give Romo time to scan the field: The Redskins' secondary has been porous much of the season, and Dallas has a talented group of pass-catchers. Washington is a desperate team and likely will bring pressure from a variety of areas on defense, but if Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has time to scan the field, he could put up big numbers. Look for coach Jason Garrett to be ready with more maximum and slide protections to aid a banged-up backfield in this week's matchup.
Get RG3 going early: Washington's best chance is to get its young quarterback going early in the game. Robert Griffin III's ability to create out of the pocket is an additional dimension that could give the Dallas defense problems. When the Washington running game is going strong with rookie back Alfred Morris, it opens up several options for Griffin in the passing game as well as on the ground (draws, option plays). Look for offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan to focus on getting his young quarterback some high-percentage passes, designed QB keepers and other opportunities to get a road upset.
Home QB: Romo has average size with good arm strength and athleticism. He is coming off a solid outing versus the Browns but has had a roller-coaster season that mirrors his entire career. Romo has great vision, and often finds his second and third options in the passing game. He is great at improvising and extending the play outside the tackle box, and while he can be considered a gunslinger, he has shown more consistency in recent weeks.
Away QB: Griffin is the most athletic young quarterback in the league. He is coming off his best career performance (four touchdown passes, 84 yards rushing), and has adequate size with great athleticism and excellent arm strength. Griffin shows great poise in the pocket given his inexperience, with vision and instincts to find open targets in the passing game. He is a natural playmaker outside the pocket with speed and quickness to move the chains. RG3 is a dynamic athlete defensive coordinators have to plan for very specifically with spies and disciplined rush lanes.
Key positional battle -- Cowboys' OLBs vs. Redskins' OTs: Dallas has two excellent outside linebackers in Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware. Both can be physical and maintain leverage against the run, and provide pressure in the passing game off the edge. Washington fields two big athletic tackles (Trent Williams and Tyler Polumbus) who have been inconsistent in pass protection. Griffin's athleticism often masks their deficiencies, though, and this battle in both phases will be a huge factor in this week's outcome.
Featured player: Dallas wide receiver Dez Bryant had the best outing (12 receptions, 145 yards and a touchdown) of his three-year career last week, and shows excellent size, power and athleticism for the position. Bryant can be undisciplined as a route runner and in adjusting patterns versus different coverages, but he utilizes his length, strength, quickness and speed to get separation. He is an improved perimeter blocker and appears to be progressing as a receiver. Bryant has freakish talent and could be a key contributor down the stretch, but he is a boom-or-bust performer.
Film room nuggets: Morris doesn't have great speed, but he attacks the line of scrimmage with power to move the pile. He isn't flashy but brings a physical edge to the Redskins' offense, showing patience to set up blockers and punishing defenders on contact. ... The Cowboys' Jason Witten is one of the most consistent tight ends in the league. He is a solid blocker to set the edge, but most importantly, he is Romo's security blanket to move the chains in crucial situations.
Prediction
Dallas 30
Washington 28
This game between underperforming teams will come down to which one can run the ball more effectively. If Murray plays, Dallas should come out on top, but if not, Washington could get the road upset.
Patriots-Jets:
Turnovers and special teams will be keys in this divisional rivalry
QB RB WR OL DL LB Coach = Patriots
DB ST = Jets
Be creative offensively: New York has struggled on offense this season but had a good effort last week against St. Louis, while New England has been inconsistent defensively, especially versus the pass. The Jets have their backs against the wall and need to be creative, so look for offensive coordinator Tony Sparano to possibly utilize Tim Tebow more often, and insert additional wrinkles in both the running and passing games to methodically move the chains and limit the Patriots' opportunities on offense.
Continue with balance on offense: New England has shown excellent balance on offense, while New York has been poor defending the run (142 yards per game) but solid versus the pass (200 yards per game). Look for Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to be smart with a good mixture of run and pass on early downs to keep the NFL's top-ranked offense moving the chains in hostile territory.
Turnovers and special teams: The Patriots lead the league with a plus-16 turnover margin, while the Jets are at minus-2 in that department. However, New York has a clear advantage on special teams with return men Joe McKnight and Jeremy Kerley. Taking care of the football and winning the field position battle (or even getting a score) on special teams will be the Jets' only chance at the upset.
Home QB: Mark Sanchez has good size, arm strength and athleticism, and is coming off an efficient outing against the Rams. Sanchez flashes excellent release quickness when he is decisive. He can improvise to extend the play outside the tackle box, but is best when he has time in the pocket to scan the field. Sanchez is a talented, young quarterback, but needs the aid of an effective running attack to move the chains consistently.
Away QB: Tom Brady is a future Hall of Famer with excellent size and arm strength, and is coming off a huge performance in a blowout win over Indianapolis. Brady is an average athlete and rarely creates outside the tackle box, but he can drive the football when he needs to and has great touch in the short passing game. He has outstanding vision and ability to find his second and third options. Brady is successful with timing and accuracy, and also has the ability to check off and put his offense into the right play.
Key positional battle -- Patriots' DEs vs. Jets' OTs: New England has two capable ends in rookie Chandler Jones and six-year veteran Rob Ninkovich who are solid against the run and can apply pressure in the passing game. New York fields seven-year veteran D'Brickashaw Ferguson at left tackle and the huge Austin Howard on the right side. Ferguson is very athletic but lacks great strength to anchor versus power, while Howard has more trouble with athletic edge rushers. The Jets' tackles will have to play well in both phases of the game to give their offense a chance to control the tempo of this contest.
Case for the underdog: New York is clearly overmatched in this divisional game. However, the Jets are coming off an impressive road victory while the banged-up Patriots are traveling on a short week. New England will also be without tight end Rob Gronkowski (broken forearm), and if the Jets take care of the football, flip the field with great special teams and limit New England's offensive opportunities, they could come away with a big home victory.
Film room nuggets: McKnight is New York's most explosive player. His burst, quickness and speed can distort pursuit angles in the open field. He is versatile and gets touches in three phases (running, receiving, kick returns). ... With Gronkowski out, wide receiver Wes Welker will likely see even more balls come his way this week. His quickness and instincts as a route runner make him one of the team's best options to get open versus both man and zone coverages.
Prediction
New England 27
New York 23
New York is playing at home and New England is banged up, but the Patriots are clearly the superior team and will get their fifth straight win.
Lions need more from defensive line
QB WR = Lions
RB OL DL LB DB ST Coach = Texans
Gash the Lions' D-line: The biggest mismatch in this game could be Houston's Arian Foster-led zone-rushing attack against the Lions' porous and undisciplined run defense. Detroit's front is far too aggressive overall, often just attacking upfield with reckless abandon. That allows for some huge openings, and Foster is fantastic at cutting back to daylight in such instances. Also, Houston's O-line is among the most disciplined and coordinated in the NFL. Detroit LB Stephen Tulloch is often left to clean up his line's mess, but he missed a lot of tackles last week.
Create big plays with pressure: Speaking of the Lions' defensive line, Detroit is not getting enough of a pass rush from its ends. Kyle Vanden Bosch in particular has been a liability. Nick Fairley has come on huge in his second season, especially as a pass-rusher. Detroit likes to move Fairley and Ndamukong Suh all over the defensive line, but when both are aligned at defensive tackle, they make up one of the best interior pass rushes in the NFL. Suh and Fairley had great games in Week 11. Duane Brown is quite possibly the best tackle in the league and Chris Myers is an exceptional center, but the right side of Houston's line has been problematic.
Keep Houston's defense in base personnel: We will almost never see the Lions in 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end) and they love having three wideouts on the field, which will often lend itself to Houston going to dime. But the Texans are far less frightening in their regular base 3-4 personnel, so Detroit might be wise to change its approach and utilize more 12 personnel (one back, two tight ends) for this matchup. When the Texans get into their sub packages, that is when they get exotic with blitzes. But Lions QB Matthew Stafford has done a great job versus the blitz this year. Houston's edge pass rush has been a problem, but there isn't a player dominating like J.J. Watt, whom the Texans will move all over their defensive front. Stafford was sacked five times by a Packers defense last week that was without Clay Matthews.
Home QB: Stafford was very up and down last week and missed throws that he should have made. That has been a recurring theme for this ultra-talented passer this season, as his mechanics are too unpredictable. The Texans do feature one of the top secondaries in the league and Johnathan Joseph should often draw the assignment of shadowing Calvin Johnson, Stafford's top option by a wide margin. But Jaguars WR Justin Blackmon torched this group for 236 yards last week. Houston allowed the downtrodden Jacksonville offense to throw for 372 yards with several coverage breakdowns to blame.
Away QB: It took overtime, but Houston did rack up 43 points in a winning effort last week. Matt Schaub threw for an amazing 527 yards in that game with five touchdowns and two interceptions on 55 attempts. He was remarkably accurate. This is not the formula Houston wants on offense, though. The play-action game is a staple of Houston's run-first offense and Schaub sells it very well. Chris Houston has played well for the Lions, but the rest of their secondary has been very beatable, especially if Louis Delmas is out of the lineup again, as he was last week.
Key positional battle -- Lions' RBs vs. Texans' run defense: Joique Bell is the back to whom Detroit likes to throw and he has been a heck of a find, but this team doesn't have much big-play ability at running back. Houston is among the most difficult teams in the league to run against and running backs are posting paltry numbers against the Texans. It could be a long day for Mikel Leshoure and Bell.
Featured player: No team plays more multiple-tight end sets than the Texans and Owen Daniels is quietly having an exceptional season as Houston's second option in the passing game. Daniels is fighting a hip issue, though. This offense rarely brings an extra wideout on the field, but it may do so this week to challenge a very thin Lions secondary. Andre Johnson might not be quite the same as he was in his prime, but he was simply amazing last week en route to racking up 273 receiving yards on 14 catches. Detroit doesn't have an answer for Johnson.
Film room nuggets: Dropped passes have been a huge problem for the Lions' receivers this year, including Calvin Johnson. TE Brandon Pettigrew has been troubled by drops but gets plenty of targets in Detroit's offense. He often gets favorable matchups due to the attention Johnson receives from opposing secondaries. A former first-round pick, Pettigrew is a solid two-way tight end, but he needs to take a step forward. ... The Lions' offensive line rarely gets a lot of credit, but collectively, it is having an excellent season, especially in the passing game. The Lions also really like Riley Reiff and will get him on the field as a sixth lineman quite a bit. Reiff could be the starting left tackle Thursday if Jeff Backus' hamstring doesn't heal on a very short week.
Prediction
Houston 27
Detroit 23
Could there be an upset for the home team on Thanksgiving? That certainly won't be the case if the Lions turn the ball over four times like they did in last week's loss to Green Bay. Expect a close game, but Houston narrowly prevails.
Redskins-Cowboys:
Offensive balance will be key for Cowboys at home
QB RB LB Coach = Redskins
WR OL DL DB ST = Cowboys
Make Dallas one-dimensional: The Cowboys struggle to win games without a balanced offensive attack. Dallas has been banged up in the backfield (running back DeMarco Murray is doubtful) and along the offensive line, and the Cowboys should struggle running the ball. On the flip side, Washington's defense is stronger against the run than the pass. The Redskins will look to stymie the run on early downs in order to give defensive coordinator Jim Haslett the opportunity to take more chances with man- and zone-blitz packages to force an inconsistent Cowboys offense into turnovers.
Give Romo time to scan the field: The Redskins' secondary has been porous much of the season, and Dallas has a talented group of pass-catchers. Washington is a desperate team and likely will bring pressure from a variety of areas on defense, but if Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo has time to scan the field, he could put up big numbers. Look for coach Jason Garrett to be ready with more maximum and slide protections to aid a banged-up backfield in this week's matchup.
Get RG3 going early: Washington's best chance is to get its young quarterback going early in the game. Robert Griffin III's ability to create out of the pocket is an additional dimension that could give the Dallas defense problems. When the Washington running game is going strong with rookie back Alfred Morris, it opens up several options for Griffin in the passing game as well as on the ground (draws, option plays). Look for offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan to focus on getting his young quarterback some high-percentage passes, designed QB keepers and other opportunities to get a road upset.
Home QB: Romo has average size with good arm strength and athleticism. He is coming off a solid outing versus the Browns but has had a roller-coaster season that mirrors his entire career. Romo has great vision, and often finds his second and third options in the passing game. He is great at improvising and extending the play outside the tackle box, and while he can be considered a gunslinger, he has shown more consistency in recent weeks.
Away QB: Griffin is the most athletic young quarterback in the league. He is coming off his best career performance (four touchdown passes, 84 yards rushing), and has adequate size with great athleticism and excellent arm strength. Griffin shows great poise in the pocket given his inexperience, with vision and instincts to find open targets in the passing game. He is a natural playmaker outside the pocket with speed and quickness to move the chains. RG3 is a dynamic athlete defensive coordinators have to plan for very specifically with spies and disciplined rush lanes.
Key positional battle -- Cowboys' OLBs vs. Redskins' OTs: Dallas has two excellent outside linebackers in Anthony Spencer and DeMarcus Ware. Both can be physical and maintain leverage against the run, and provide pressure in the passing game off the edge. Washington fields two big athletic tackles (Trent Williams and Tyler Polumbus) who have been inconsistent in pass protection. Griffin's athleticism often masks their deficiencies, though, and this battle in both phases will be a huge factor in this week's outcome.
Featured player: Dallas wide receiver Dez Bryant had the best outing (12 receptions, 145 yards and a touchdown) of his three-year career last week, and shows excellent size, power and athleticism for the position. Bryant can be undisciplined as a route runner and in adjusting patterns versus different coverages, but he utilizes his length, strength, quickness and speed to get separation. He is an improved perimeter blocker and appears to be progressing as a receiver. Bryant has freakish talent and could be a key contributor down the stretch, but he is a boom-or-bust performer.
Film room nuggets: Morris doesn't have great speed, but he attacks the line of scrimmage with power to move the pile. He isn't flashy but brings a physical edge to the Redskins' offense, showing patience to set up blockers and punishing defenders on contact. ... The Cowboys' Jason Witten is one of the most consistent tight ends in the league. He is a solid blocker to set the edge, but most importantly, he is Romo's security blanket to move the chains in crucial situations.
Prediction
Dallas 30
Washington 28
This game between underperforming teams will come down to which one can run the ball more effectively. If Murray plays, Dallas should come out on top, but if not, Washington could get the road upset.
Patriots-Jets:
Turnovers and special teams will be keys in this divisional rivalry
QB RB WR OL DL LB Coach = Patriots
DB ST = Jets
Be creative offensively: New York has struggled on offense this season but had a good effort last week against St. Louis, while New England has been inconsistent defensively, especially versus the pass. The Jets have their backs against the wall and need to be creative, so look for offensive coordinator Tony Sparano to possibly utilize Tim Tebow more often, and insert additional wrinkles in both the running and passing games to methodically move the chains and limit the Patriots' opportunities on offense.
Continue with balance on offense: New England has shown excellent balance on offense, while New York has been poor defending the run (142 yards per game) but solid versus the pass (200 yards per game). Look for Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to be smart with a good mixture of run and pass on early downs to keep the NFL's top-ranked offense moving the chains in hostile territory.
Turnovers and special teams: The Patriots lead the league with a plus-16 turnover margin, while the Jets are at minus-2 in that department. However, New York has a clear advantage on special teams with return men Joe McKnight and Jeremy Kerley. Taking care of the football and winning the field position battle (or even getting a score) on special teams will be the Jets' only chance at the upset.
Home QB: Mark Sanchez has good size, arm strength and athleticism, and is coming off an efficient outing against the Rams. Sanchez flashes excellent release quickness when he is decisive. He can improvise to extend the play outside the tackle box, but is best when he has time in the pocket to scan the field. Sanchez is a talented, young quarterback, but needs the aid of an effective running attack to move the chains consistently.
Away QB: Tom Brady is a future Hall of Famer with excellent size and arm strength, and is coming off a huge performance in a blowout win over Indianapolis. Brady is an average athlete and rarely creates outside the tackle box, but he can drive the football when he needs to and has great touch in the short passing game. He has outstanding vision and ability to find his second and third options. Brady is successful with timing and accuracy, and also has the ability to check off and put his offense into the right play.
Key positional battle -- Patriots' DEs vs. Jets' OTs: New England has two capable ends in rookie Chandler Jones and six-year veteran Rob Ninkovich who are solid against the run and can apply pressure in the passing game. New York fields seven-year veteran D'Brickashaw Ferguson at left tackle and the huge Austin Howard on the right side. Ferguson is very athletic but lacks great strength to anchor versus power, while Howard has more trouble with athletic edge rushers. The Jets' tackles will have to play well in both phases of the game to give their offense a chance to control the tempo of this contest.
Case for the underdog: New York is clearly overmatched in this divisional game. However, the Jets are coming off an impressive road victory while the banged-up Patriots are traveling on a short week. New England will also be without tight end Rob Gronkowski (broken forearm), and if the Jets take care of the football, flip the field with great special teams and limit New England's offensive opportunities, they could come away with a big home victory.
Film room nuggets: McKnight is New York's most explosive player. His burst, quickness and speed can distort pursuit angles in the open field. He is versatile and gets touches in three phases (running, receiving, kick returns). ... With Gronkowski out, wide receiver Wes Welker will likely see even more balls come his way this week. His quickness and instincts as a route runner make him one of the team's best options to get open versus both man and zone coverages.
Prediction
New England 27
New York 23
New York is playing at home and New England is banged up, but the Patriots are clearly the superior team and will get their fifth straight win.
Vikings-Bears:
The Vikings, coming off a bye, could surprise the Bears
QB WR LB DB Coach = Bears
RB OL DL ST = Vikings
Control tempo on the road: Despite their Monday night blowout, the Chicago Bears can be a dominating force on defense with 19 takeaways, the most in the league. They have more scores on defense than any other team in the NFL. The Minnesota Vikings have been excellent controlling tempo with a physical ground attack, which averages 151 yards per contest. Chicago was exploited on the ground, as well as in the passing game, versus the 49ers. Look for Vikings offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave to use high-percentage passes with a physical ground game to sustain long drives while keeping a potentially explosive Chicago offense on the sidelines.
Throw to set up the run: The Vikings are coming off a bye week and have been stingy defending the run. The Bears' ground attack has been very good but stalled against the 49ers on Monday night. We'll likely see the Vikings overplay the run. Look for Bears offensive coordinator Mike Tice to spread out the Minnesota defense to create mismatches in the passing game, which should provide creases for Matt Forte and Michael Bush in the running game.
Takeaway battle and special teams: The Bears (plus-12) are ranked third in the league when it comes to takeaways, while the Vikings are minus-4. Both teams have excellent punters, place-kickers and return specialists with the slight edge going to Minnesota overall. The weather in the Windy City could have a huge impact on these two phases of the game. And with both clubs being so evenly matched, this could likely determine the outcome.
Home QB: Jay Cutler missed Week 11 with a concussion but will likely return for this game. With a 59 percent completion percentage, Cutler has been solid this season. Cutler has always been a streaky passer throughout his seven-year career. He has excellent arm strength and can fit the ball into small windows -- which can be a positive and a negative for him. Cutler too often will force the ball into coverage with a gunslinger's mentality especially when under duress. He was somewhat of a boom-or-bust performer in the past but Cutler has been a bit better taking care of the ball in 2012.
Away QB: Christian Ponder has good size and athleticism to go with his strong arm. He has quickness and speed, and he can move the chains with his legs. He is getting better at improvising when the protection breaks down in order to make plays downfield. He has made marked improvement in regard to his accuracy with a 65 percent completion percentage, but still tends to force the ball into coverage at times. His vision and ability to read coverages have also shown marked improvement in 2012. Ponder's talented, but the second-year QB still needs the aid of an effective ground attack to move the chains.
Key positional battle -- Bears' O-line vs. Vikings' D-line: This contest will be won and lost in the trenches and the Chicago offensive line was exposed against the 49ers. The Bears' line is talented but has been inconsistent both as run- and pass-blockers throughout of the season. Minnesota fields a stout front four that has accomplished edge rushers in Jared Allen, Brian Robison and Everson Griffen, who have accounted for 16.5 sacks. The group that can impose its will in this battle will likely swing the outcome.
Featured player: Vikings featured back Adrian Peterson is coming off major knee surgery (from a year ago) but is having an outstanding season. He leads the league (1,128 yards at 5.8 yards per attempt) in rushing and appears to have recovered his strength and speed in 2012. Peterson runs with great vision and power between the tackles and moves the pile on contact. He has a violent running style with burst to pick up chunks of yards down field. He is a reliable receiver out of the backfield as well as blocker in blitz pickup. The Vikings' offense is built around Peterson and he'll need to have a big game for Minnesota to get a tough road victory.
Film room nuggets: Chicago's Charles Tillman has been a force as the Bears' most active secondary defender. His physicality, instincts, energy and leadership are always evident when he steps on the field. ... Minnesota's Allen is always around the ball. His ability to disrupt the run and the pass forces opposing coordinators to game plan for him.
Prediction
Minnesota 23
Chicago 20
These teams play each other two of the next three weeks. It will make a difference if Cutler plays, but Minnesota is coming off a bye and match up well in the trenches on both sides. The Vikings get a upset victory.
Raiders-Bengals:
Raiders QB Palmer makes first return trip to Cincinnati
QB RB LB DB = Raiders
WR OL DL ST Coach = Bengals
Get it to A.J.! A.J. Green has a touchdown catch in nine straight games and is the best player in this game. He is an unstoppable force. The Raiders are not very talented in their secondary and have had far too many blown coverages. That is a lethal combination versus Green. Cincinnati has some other wide receivers developing nicely, though. Andrew Hawkins is a dynamic option who excels with the ball in his hands, but he was inactive last week. Mohamed Sanu's role looks to be growing as more of a possession type. Cincinnati also will line Sanu up in the backfield and hand the ball to him at times or have him throw.
Protect Palmer: The Raiders are now a pass-heavy team and Jared Veldheer has been excellent on the left side, but right tackle is a huge problem for them in protection. And Carson Palmer isn't a very mobile signal-caller. Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson are a dangerous set of defensive ends, but it is Geno Atkins who has been simply superb on Cincinnati's defensive line. Cincinnati's pass defense has been among the league's worst, but the Bengals should get to Palmer with some regularity in this contest.
Hit some home runs: While protection could be an issue this week, the Raiders will still throw quite a bit and should find matchups to their liking against a subpar Bengals secondary. The Raiders have an explosive pair of wide receivers in Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey, who both are loaded with downfield speed and big-play ability. Don't be surprised if Palmer connects for a long touchdown pass or two.
Home QB: Andy Dalton has played very well of late after some early season struggles. A true timing and anticipatory passer, Dalton doesn't have a huge arm but can compensate for it with precision and ball placement. Dalton has a hard time dealing with pressure. Oakland has really struggled in pass defense when it does not blitz, so expect the Raiders to dial up a fair amount of pressure this week. The Bengals have been poor on third downs, but the Raiders' pass rush is very inconsistent. Oakland failed to record a sack in Week 11.
Away QB: Palmer threw for 312 yards last week, mostly from behind. Putting up such numbers has been the norm for Palmer of late. The Raiders use more 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end) than any team in the league by a wide margin, but they still have weapons in Moore and Heyward-Bey on the perimeter. Plus, TE Brandon Myers has emerged as a very reliable receiving option. This will be Palmer's first trip back to Cincinnati since being traded by the Bengals.
Key positional battle -- Bengals' TEs vs. Raiders' safeties: Jermaine Gresham has put together a pretty solid season. But Tyvon Branch excels at eliminating opposing tight ends. Dalton is doing his best work passing outside the numbers, so this could be a slow day for Gresham. Drops have also been a problem for Gresham. Philip Wheeler has also been a great find for the Raiders in the passing game, both as a coverage linebacker and blitzer.
Featured player: Marcel Reece is a fullback/running back/wide receiver combination who accumulated 193 yards from scrimmage last week. He is now a featured player in Oakland's pass-heavy offense. There are few players in the league like Reece. The Raiders love throwing to their running backs, and that has been revved up a notch since Darren McFadden's injury. Oakland's run blocking has been a real problem spot, but Reece has been very impressive as a lead ball carrier since McFadden went down.
Film room nuggets: Led by Andrew Whitworth and rookie Kevin Zeitler, Cincinnati's offensive line has been superb in protection and solid in the run game. Center is really the only weak position in its starting five. But the Bengals' stable of running backs is substandard, so the running game suffers. ... Oakland's run defense is extremely unreliable and allows far too many long runs, but the Bengals lack a big-play runner to capitalize on this deficiency. Cincinnati did control last week's game on the ground, accumulating 189 rushing yards, with BenJarvus Green-Ellis eclipsing 100 rushing yards for the first time this season.
Prediction
Cincinnati 30
Oakland 14
When doing the positional advantages, nearly every position was a toss-up. But the Bengals have an advantage on special teams despite Oakland's great kicking specialists. And frankly, Cincinnati is just playing much better than the Raiders right now.
Steelers-Browns:
Banged-up Steelers can't afford to let Browns beat them
QB RB ST= Browns
WR OL DL LB DB Coach = Steelers
Balance important for Pittsburgh: The Steelers are talented offensively and are capable of pounding the rock on the ground while also fielding capable targets in the passing game. The Browns have been inconsistent defensively (yielding 125 yards on the ground and 249 yards in the air per contest) but held Dallas to just 63 yards rushing in Week 11. Look for offensive coordinator Todd Haley to design a game plan with high-percentage passes as well as a physical ground attack between the tackles to control tempo on the road.
Out-physical Pittsburgh up front: The Browns have a formidable offensive line that matches up well with the Steelers' defensive front seven. Cleveland has a physical rookie back in Trent Richardson, who can move the pile on contact. Look for Cleveland to be patient with a power rushing attack on offense while challenging a banged-up Pittsburgh offensive line with zone run blitzes, stunts and possible eight-man fronts on defense.
Make it happen on special teams: The Browns are clearly outmatched in this contest but have an edge in the kicking game. Phil Dawson leads the league in field goal percentage (a perfect 19-for-19), and dangerous returners Josh Cribbs and Travis Benjamin can flip the field at any given time. Don't be surprised if special teams coordinator Chris Tabor adds a wrinkle -- like a fake, a reverse or a different blocking scheme -- in this phase of the game to change the momentum.
Home QB: Brandon Weeden has good size, strength and athleticism for the position. He has a live arm and can make all the throws. He can be somewhat erratic with his decision-making and needs to dump the ball off more rather than forcing it into traffic. Weeden is a talented rookie who is still a work in progress and has made marked improvement throughout the season, but Pittsburgh's defense will be his biggest challenge to date.
Away QB: Charlie Batch is a 15-year veteran who played in four games in 2011 but hasn't seen the field this season. He has adequate size, athleticism and arm strength but is clearly playing with diminishing skills. He is limited to improvise outside the tackle box and operates best from the pocket. He is a smart signal-caller with a good grasp of the Steelers' offense and should be able to manage the game. Batch has enough left in the tank to move the chains through the air but would clearly need the aid of an effective ground attack to get a road victory in Week 12.
Key positional battle -- Steelers' receivers vs. Browns' secondary: Pittsburgh has several excellent perimeter targets in Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders as well as a capable veteran tight end in Heath Miller. All the wide receivers can stretch the field with great speed and quickness, while Miller does a great job making himself available to move the chains in crucial situations. Cleveland fields a very athletic secondary that has been active defending the pass as well as the run. The Steelers' air assault will clearly be hobbled by the quarterback situation, but the battle in the passing game will likely have a huge impact on this week contest.
Featured player: Cleveland's offense is built around Richardson. The rookie is the Browns' leading rusher and receiver while accounting for 30 percent off their overall production. He is a powerfully built ball carrier with excellent inline run skills. Richardson doesn't have great elusiveness but runs with vision, balance and agility to find a crease. He is a punishing back who can move the pile. He has been a reliable receiver out of the backfield and Cleveland's best chain mover. Richardson is a bright spot in a disappointing season and will be a focal point of both teams in this week's matchup.
Film room nuggets: Wallace is the Steelers' most explosive offensive threat. He missed a couple of opportunities in Week 11, and with Ben Roethlisberger out he needs to make a difference. ... Cleveland left tackle Joe Thomas is excellent as both a run and pass blocker. His initial punch jolts defenders at the point of attack in the running game, while his length, strength and athleticism are tough to contend with when pass blocking.
Prediction
Pittsburgh 13
Cleveland 9
The Browns have nothing to lose and would feel great about getting a win over their rivals. The Steelers are short-handed in many areas but will do what it takes to get a much-needed road victory.
The Vikings, coming off a bye, could surprise the Bears
QB WR LB DB Coach = Bears
RB OL DL ST = Vikings
Control tempo on the road: Despite their Monday night blowout, the Chicago Bears can be a dominating force on defense with 19 takeaways, the most in the league. They have more scores on defense than any other team in the NFL. The Minnesota Vikings have been excellent controlling tempo with a physical ground attack, which averages 151 yards per contest. Chicago was exploited on the ground, as well as in the passing game, versus the 49ers. Look for Vikings offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave to use high-percentage passes with a physical ground game to sustain long drives while keeping a potentially explosive Chicago offense on the sidelines.
Throw to set up the run: The Vikings are coming off a bye week and have been stingy defending the run. The Bears' ground attack has been very good but stalled against the 49ers on Monday night. We'll likely see the Vikings overplay the run. Look for Bears offensive coordinator Mike Tice to spread out the Minnesota defense to create mismatches in the passing game, which should provide creases for Matt Forte and Michael Bush in the running game.
Takeaway battle and special teams: The Bears (plus-12) are ranked third in the league when it comes to takeaways, while the Vikings are minus-4. Both teams have excellent punters, place-kickers and return specialists with the slight edge going to Minnesota overall. The weather in the Windy City could have a huge impact on these two phases of the game. And with both clubs being so evenly matched, this could likely determine the outcome.
Home QB: Jay Cutler missed Week 11 with a concussion but will likely return for this game. With a 59 percent completion percentage, Cutler has been solid this season. Cutler has always been a streaky passer throughout his seven-year career. He has excellent arm strength and can fit the ball into small windows -- which can be a positive and a negative for him. Cutler too often will force the ball into coverage with a gunslinger's mentality especially when under duress. He was somewhat of a boom-or-bust performer in the past but Cutler has been a bit better taking care of the ball in 2012.
Away QB: Christian Ponder has good size and athleticism to go with his strong arm. He has quickness and speed, and he can move the chains with his legs. He is getting better at improvising when the protection breaks down in order to make plays downfield. He has made marked improvement in regard to his accuracy with a 65 percent completion percentage, but still tends to force the ball into coverage at times. His vision and ability to read coverages have also shown marked improvement in 2012. Ponder's talented, but the second-year QB still needs the aid of an effective ground attack to move the chains.
Key positional battle -- Bears' O-line vs. Vikings' D-line: This contest will be won and lost in the trenches and the Chicago offensive line was exposed against the 49ers. The Bears' line is talented but has been inconsistent both as run- and pass-blockers throughout of the season. Minnesota fields a stout front four that has accomplished edge rushers in Jared Allen, Brian Robison and Everson Griffen, who have accounted for 16.5 sacks. The group that can impose its will in this battle will likely swing the outcome.
Featured player: Vikings featured back Adrian Peterson is coming off major knee surgery (from a year ago) but is having an outstanding season. He leads the league (1,128 yards at 5.8 yards per attempt) in rushing and appears to have recovered his strength and speed in 2012. Peterson runs with great vision and power between the tackles and moves the pile on contact. He has a violent running style with burst to pick up chunks of yards down field. He is a reliable receiver out of the backfield as well as blocker in blitz pickup. The Vikings' offense is built around Peterson and he'll need to have a big game for Minnesota to get a tough road victory.
Film room nuggets: Chicago's Charles Tillman has been a force as the Bears' most active secondary defender. His physicality, instincts, energy and leadership are always evident when he steps on the field. ... Minnesota's Allen is always around the ball. His ability to disrupt the run and the pass forces opposing coordinators to game plan for him.
Prediction
Minnesota 23
Chicago 20
These teams play each other two of the next three weeks. It will make a difference if Cutler plays, but Minnesota is coming off a bye and match up well in the trenches on both sides. The Vikings get a upset victory.
Raiders-Bengals:
Raiders QB Palmer makes first return trip to Cincinnati
QB RB LB DB = Raiders
WR OL DL ST Coach = Bengals
Get it to A.J.! A.J. Green has a touchdown catch in nine straight games and is the best player in this game. He is an unstoppable force. The Raiders are not very talented in their secondary and have had far too many blown coverages. That is a lethal combination versus Green. Cincinnati has some other wide receivers developing nicely, though. Andrew Hawkins is a dynamic option who excels with the ball in his hands, but he was inactive last week. Mohamed Sanu's role looks to be growing as more of a possession type. Cincinnati also will line Sanu up in the backfield and hand the ball to him at times or have him throw.
Protect Palmer: The Raiders are now a pass-heavy team and Jared Veldheer has been excellent on the left side, but right tackle is a huge problem for them in protection. And Carson Palmer isn't a very mobile signal-caller. Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson are a dangerous set of defensive ends, but it is Geno Atkins who has been simply superb on Cincinnati's defensive line. Cincinnati's pass defense has been among the league's worst, but the Bengals should get to Palmer with some regularity in this contest.
Hit some home runs: While protection could be an issue this week, the Raiders will still throw quite a bit and should find matchups to their liking against a subpar Bengals secondary. The Raiders have an explosive pair of wide receivers in Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey, who both are loaded with downfield speed and big-play ability. Don't be surprised if Palmer connects for a long touchdown pass or two.
Home QB: Andy Dalton has played very well of late after some early season struggles. A true timing and anticipatory passer, Dalton doesn't have a huge arm but can compensate for it with precision and ball placement. Dalton has a hard time dealing with pressure. Oakland has really struggled in pass defense when it does not blitz, so expect the Raiders to dial up a fair amount of pressure this week. The Bengals have been poor on third downs, but the Raiders' pass rush is very inconsistent. Oakland failed to record a sack in Week 11.
Away QB: Palmer threw for 312 yards last week, mostly from behind. Putting up such numbers has been the norm for Palmer of late. The Raiders use more 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end) than any team in the league by a wide margin, but they still have weapons in Moore and Heyward-Bey on the perimeter. Plus, TE Brandon Myers has emerged as a very reliable receiving option. This will be Palmer's first trip back to Cincinnati since being traded by the Bengals.
Key positional battle -- Bengals' TEs vs. Raiders' safeties: Jermaine Gresham has put together a pretty solid season. But Tyvon Branch excels at eliminating opposing tight ends. Dalton is doing his best work passing outside the numbers, so this could be a slow day for Gresham. Drops have also been a problem for Gresham. Philip Wheeler has also been a great find for the Raiders in the passing game, both as a coverage linebacker and blitzer.
Featured player: Marcel Reece is a fullback/running back/wide receiver combination who accumulated 193 yards from scrimmage last week. He is now a featured player in Oakland's pass-heavy offense. There are few players in the league like Reece. The Raiders love throwing to their running backs, and that has been revved up a notch since Darren McFadden's injury. Oakland's run blocking has been a real problem spot, but Reece has been very impressive as a lead ball carrier since McFadden went down.
Film room nuggets: Led by Andrew Whitworth and rookie Kevin Zeitler, Cincinnati's offensive line has been superb in protection and solid in the run game. Center is really the only weak position in its starting five. But the Bengals' stable of running backs is substandard, so the running game suffers. ... Oakland's run defense is extremely unreliable and allows far too many long runs, but the Bengals lack a big-play runner to capitalize on this deficiency. Cincinnati did control last week's game on the ground, accumulating 189 rushing yards, with BenJarvus Green-Ellis eclipsing 100 rushing yards for the first time this season.
Prediction
Cincinnati 30
Oakland 14
When doing the positional advantages, nearly every position was a toss-up. But the Bengals have an advantage on special teams despite Oakland's great kicking specialists. And frankly, Cincinnati is just playing much better than the Raiders right now.
Steelers-Browns:
Banged-up Steelers can't afford to let Browns beat them
QB RB ST= Browns
WR OL DL LB DB Coach = Steelers
Balance important for Pittsburgh: The Steelers are talented offensively and are capable of pounding the rock on the ground while also fielding capable targets in the passing game. The Browns have been inconsistent defensively (yielding 125 yards on the ground and 249 yards in the air per contest) but held Dallas to just 63 yards rushing in Week 11. Look for offensive coordinator Todd Haley to design a game plan with high-percentage passes as well as a physical ground attack between the tackles to control tempo on the road.
Out-physical Pittsburgh up front: The Browns have a formidable offensive line that matches up well with the Steelers' defensive front seven. Cleveland has a physical rookie back in Trent Richardson, who can move the pile on contact. Look for Cleveland to be patient with a power rushing attack on offense while challenging a banged-up Pittsburgh offensive line with zone run blitzes, stunts and possible eight-man fronts on defense.
Make it happen on special teams: The Browns are clearly outmatched in this contest but have an edge in the kicking game. Phil Dawson leads the league in field goal percentage (a perfect 19-for-19), and dangerous returners Josh Cribbs and Travis Benjamin can flip the field at any given time. Don't be surprised if special teams coordinator Chris Tabor adds a wrinkle -- like a fake, a reverse or a different blocking scheme -- in this phase of the game to change the momentum.
Home QB: Brandon Weeden has good size, strength and athleticism for the position. He has a live arm and can make all the throws. He can be somewhat erratic with his decision-making and needs to dump the ball off more rather than forcing it into traffic. Weeden is a talented rookie who is still a work in progress and has made marked improvement throughout the season, but Pittsburgh's defense will be his biggest challenge to date.
Away QB: Charlie Batch is a 15-year veteran who played in four games in 2011 but hasn't seen the field this season. He has adequate size, athleticism and arm strength but is clearly playing with diminishing skills. He is limited to improvise outside the tackle box and operates best from the pocket. He is a smart signal-caller with a good grasp of the Steelers' offense and should be able to manage the game. Batch has enough left in the tank to move the chains through the air but would clearly need the aid of an effective ground attack to get a road victory in Week 12.
Key positional battle -- Steelers' receivers vs. Browns' secondary: Pittsburgh has several excellent perimeter targets in Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders as well as a capable veteran tight end in Heath Miller. All the wide receivers can stretch the field with great speed and quickness, while Miller does a great job making himself available to move the chains in crucial situations. Cleveland fields a very athletic secondary that has been active defending the pass as well as the run. The Steelers' air assault will clearly be hobbled by the quarterback situation, but the battle in the passing game will likely have a huge impact on this week contest.
Featured player: Cleveland's offense is built around Richardson. The rookie is the Browns' leading rusher and receiver while accounting for 30 percent off their overall production. He is a powerfully built ball carrier with excellent inline run skills. Richardson doesn't have great elusiveness but runs with vision, balance and agility to find a crease. He is a punishing back who can move the pile. He has been a reliable receiver out of the backfield and Cleveland's best chain mover. Richardson is a bright spot in a disappointing season and will be a focal point of both teams in this week's matchup.
Film room nuggets: Wallace is the Steelers' most explosive offensive threat. He missed a couple of opportunities in Week 11, and with Ben Roethlisberger out he needs to make a difference. ... Cleveland left tackle Joe Thomas is excellent as both a run and pass blocker. His initial punch jolts defenders at the point of attack in the running game, while his length, strength and athleticism are tough to contend with when pass blocking.
Prediction
Pittsburgh 13
Cleveland 9
The Browns have nothing to lose and would feel great about getting a win over their rivals. The Steelers are short-handed in many areas but will do what it takes to get a much-needed road victory.
Bills-Colts:
Colts should expect heavy dose of Spiller
QB WR DL LB DB Coach = Colts
RB OL ST = Bills
Control the tempo: The Bills have utilized a versatile ground game and a high-percentage passing attack to control the clock in recent weeks. Featured back C.J. Spiller leads the league with a 6.6-yard average per carry while the Bills' air assault focuses on short passes to move the chains. The Colts have been inconsistent defensively and were gashed (446 yards) versus the Patriots in Week 11. Look for Bills coach Chan Gailey to control the tempo with a good dose of Spiller on the ground while methodically moving the chains with high-percentage passes.
Balance to keep Buffalo guessing: The Bills have struggled defensively; they're giving up 153 yards per game on the ground and have allowed 19 touchdown passes. Despite fielding a rookie QB, the Colts have been excellent (ranked fourth) on offense. Coordinator and acting head coach Bruce Arians has been creative keeping opposing defenses off balance. Look for Arians to continue to open up the playbook with variety in the passing game, which should aid an improving ground attack in this matchup.
Turnover battle and special teams: Both clubs have been poor (Indianapolis is minus-9; while Buffalo is minus-7) in the turnover department. Buffalo clearly has the advantage in the kicking game with a more efficient place-kicker (Rian Lindell). Bills return specialist Leodis McKelvin leads the league in punt returns (22-yard average with two TDs) and is dangerous any time he touches the ball. Expect both of these phases to have a huge impact.
Home QB: Andrew Luck is coming off a tough outing (three interceptions) in a road loss to the Patriots. He is an excellent combination of size, strength and athleticism for the position. He has great vision and instincts for a rookie signal-caller and shows poise beyond his years. Luck continues to be somewhat inconsistent with his accuracy, and he forced the ball into coverage too often in Week 11. He does have the ability to power the ball into tight spaces and can make all the throws. Luck is an outstanding, young quarterback who has showed great mental toughness and leadership.
Away QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick is coming off a modest outing (only 168 yards passing) but was efficient with the football in the Bills' Week 11 victory over the Dolphins. He has adequate size, strength and athleticism for the position. He's not one to power the ball into tight windows but is successful with great timing, technique and instincts in the passing game. Fitzpatrick is streaky passer who gets the ball out quickly and usually takes what a defense gives him. He can improvise to extend the play but works best from the pocket. Fitzpatrick can put up big numbers given time to scan the field but needs the aid of an effective ground attack to be effective.
Key positional battle -- Colts' receiving corps vs. Bills' secondary: Indianapolis has a variety of talent targets in the passing game (Reggie Wayne, Donnie Avery, T.Y. Hilton and LaVon Brazill) that can put pressure on any secondary. The Bills' secondary had a solid game versus the Dolphins but has been exploited on several occasions in 2012. Buffalo is very athletic, but it fields two young corners (rookie Stephon Gilmore and second-year player Aaron Williams) who could struggle to slow this bunch when Luck puts the ball in the air.
Featured player: Spiller lacks great size but he has explosive quickness and burst in the open field. He has the ability to outrun angles that defenders have on him and can take it the distance any time he touches the ball. Spiller is dangerous as a receiver out of the backfield with speed to pick up chunks of yards. He has deceptive power between the tackles but does most of his damage on the edges. Spiller accounts for almost 30 percent of the Buffalo offense.
Film room nuggets: Hilton has great quickness and speed as a young route runner to get separation. He has shown the ability to run away from defenders after the catch when they appear to have the angle on him. ... McKelvin has excellent vision to set up blockers, find a crease and explode for chunks of yards. His natural instincts and athleticism make him dangerous whenever he touches the ball.
Prediction
Indianapolis 27
Buffalo 24
The Bills are coming off an impressive win, while the Colts got hammered in Week 11. Buffalo is a more veteran club but Indianapolis has excellent young talent. The Colts bounce back with another great effort at home.
Broncos-Chiefs:
Expect Chiefs' troubled offense to struggle
QB RB WR OL DB ST Coach = Broncos
DL LB = Chiefs
Slow the game down: Kansas City needs to make this a slow game by sticking to the run and sustaining long, clock-eating drives. If the Chiefs get into a track meet with Peyton Manning and the Broncos, they will definitely struggle to keep it close. Look for the Chiefs to use the maximum time on the clock on each snap and do everything possible to keep the clock moving. If the Chiefs let the Broncos get an early lead and are forced to throw the ball to play catch-up, they will play into the hands of Denver's explosive edge rushers.
Protect the edges: Kansas City has two explosive edge rushers -- outside linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston -- and Manning is not the most elusive quarterback in the NFL. Look for Denver to do a lot of situational substituting to keep a back or tight end in to help protect the edge and give Manning more time in the pocket.
Play from a lead: Everybody wants to score quickly, but against the Chiefs it is even more important. Kansas City lacks the kind of explosive passing game that would allow it to mount many comebacks, especially considering the quarterback situation. As soon as the Chiefs are forced to throw the ball, they are in trouble. Their line struggles to protect the pocket and none of their quarterbacks has shown the ability to take the team downfield on winning drives late in the game.
Home QB: Kansas City has been struggling at quarterback. Both Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn have played, and neither has set himself apart. At best we are talking about a game-manager. These guys need to avoid making mistakes and hope the ground game and the defense keeps this game close.
Away QB: Manning is the epitome of a game-changer. He is one of the best at checking out of a bad play and into a good one from the line of scrimmage, and he comes into each game prepared for virtually every possibility. He excels at reading coverages and is a pinpoint passer when he has time in the pocket. He has enough agility to buy time by stepping up in the pocket or sidestepping the rush but is most effective when throwing out of the pocket.
Key positional battle -- Broncos' OTs vs. Chiefs' OLBs: The Chiefs generate a dynamic pass rush off the edge with outside linebackers Hali and Houston. They both bring an excellent combination of speed, athleticism and power, and they can use speed, counter moves or strength to collapse the pocket. Denver's tackles, Ryan Clady and Orlando Franklin, will have their hands full as they try to keep Manning upright.
Case for the underdog: Hali and Houston have the potential to come up with game-changing plays for the Chiefs. They both have the speed to come off the edge and have developed strong counter moves when needed. They have the ability to transfer speed into power when needed. If the Chiefs hope to keep this game close, they need to find ways to get to Manning and throw him off his timing and rhythm.
Film room nuggets: Manning has shown consistent improvement after a year-long layoff. He is looking as confident as ever, and although his arm strength may not be what it once was, it is plenty strong enough. ... Strong safety Eric Berry has been one of the few bright spots for the Chiefs this year. He is extremely mobile and has a great nose for the ball. It looks like he has returned to full strength after missing the 2011 season with a knee injury.
Prediction
Denver 30
Kansas City 17
Denver's defense should dominate a struggling Kansas City offense. Manning may not score at will but should have plenty of opportunities to put up points off good field position thanks to turnovers or big returns.
Seahawks-Dolphins:
Rookie quarterbacks going in opposite directions
QB RB WR DL LB DB Coach = Seahawks
OL ST = Dolphins
Stop Lynch: The Dolphins are one of the hardest teams to run against in the league, but Seattle will not abandon its physical rushing attack that is led by Marshawn Lynch. Few backs can wear a defense down like Lynch. Max Unger has quietly been one of the best centers in the league and will have a stiff challenge against Paul Soliai in the run game. Miami linebacker Karlos Dansby has been quite impressive on the second level, especially against the run. Seattle's offensive line, which takes a lot of penalties, will have its hands full on the road.
Get after Tannehill: Seattle might be the best pass-rushing defense in the league. On throwing downs, the Seahawks substitute Bruce Irvin and Jason Jones into the game. Irvin is very explosive off the edge, and Jones is a great interior pass-rusher. But even in their base personnel, the Seahawks excel at harassing quarterbacks. Ryan Tannehill has been far more effective against the blitz than vs. four or fewer pass-rushers, so it would not be a surprise if Seattle rarely brought extra pressure in Miami.
Get something going on the ground: The Dolphins' offensive line was whipped by the Bills' defensive line in Week 11. Miami's running game averaged just 2.5 yards per carry in that game. Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush pretty much split carries now. But with Tannehill and the Dolphins' passing game struggling, Miami needs to get something accomplished on the ground. The Dolphins play a high percentage of base 21 personnel (two backs, one TE) and keep it pretty simple overall. Tannehill has been excellent with play-action passing and will need to be once again this week.
Home QB: Tannehill has struggled mightily for two games in a row now, but the problems with this offense certainly do not belong all on him. This supporting cast is really rough right now. Tannehill is quite advanced mentally for a rookie quarterback, but Seattle is extremely talented on defense and throws a lot at its opponent tactically. Like most rookie signal-callers, Tannehill has struggled in the red zone. Tannehill managed just 141 yards passing in Buffalo in Week 11.
Away QB: Like Tannehill, Russell Wilson has exceeded expectations in his rookie season. But unlike Tannehill, Wilson is improving every week instead of going backward. Sidney Rice and Golden Tate have improved as the season has progressed, and opposing wide receivers have been quite productive against Miami this year. Wilson has been better throwing between the numbers, but that might be a difficult area of the field to exploit this week. One member of Miami's secondary who has really stepped up is Reshad Jones, who had a whopping 14 tackles last week. Wilson might be wise to target Nolan Carroll, who was really plagued by penalties in coverage vs. Buffalo.
Key positional battle -- Dolphins' OL vs. Seahawks' DL: Maurkice Pouncey is having a terrific season for Miami, but this week will be a huge challenge for the second-year center and the rest of Miami's offensive line. Brandon Mebane in particular has clogged the middle exceptionally well. Jake Long hasn't played at as high of a level as usual, and he will have his hands full with Chris Clemons in the pass game. But because of Jonathan Martin's struggles on the right side, Long will have to handle Clemons one-on-one a high percentage of the time. Martin was consistently beaten last week.
Featured player: Brian Hartline is having a fine season as Tannehill's favorite option. Hartline is also seeing a lot of red zone targets. But this team doesn't have a field-stretching option, which allows the defense to put a lot of bodies near the line of scrimmage. That is a huge problem against Seattle's defense. Led by Richard Sherman, the Seahawks have one of the best secondaries in football.
Film room nuggets: Cameron Wake is a terror of a pass-rusher off the edge, and Randy Starks provides a consistent inside push. If the Dolphins can consistently get Wake matched up against Breno Giacomini, Wilson could be running for his life from front-side pressure. ... Much attention is given to the Seahawks' defensive linemen and their secondary, but Seattle is also very strong on the second level. Linebacker Bobby Wagner is quickly becoming the quarterback of this defense in his rookie season. He plays every down and is excelling as a run stuffer, blitzer and coverage player. Wagner looks to have an extremely bright future.
Prediction
Seattle 17
Miami 10
In the first half of last Thursday's loss to the Bills, the Dolphins had more penalty yards than offensive yards. Seattle's defense doesn't have a weakness. The Seahawks are better at home than on the road, but they'll be a tough challenge for Tannehill.
Colts should expect heavy dose of Spiller
QB WR DL LB DB Coach = Colts
RB OL ST = Bills
Control the tempo: The Bills have utilized a versatile ground game and a high-percentage passing attack to control the clock in recent weeks. Featured back C.J. Spiller leads the league with a 6.6-yard average per carry while the Bills' air assault focuses on short passes to move the chains. The Colts have been inconsistent defensively and were gashed (446 yards) versus the Patriots in Week 11. Look for Bills coach Chan Gailey to control the tempo with a good dose of Spiller on the ground while methodically moving the chains with high-percentage passes.
Balance to keep Buffalo guessing: The Bills have struggled defensively; they're giving up 153 yards per game on the ground and have allowed 19 touchdown passes. Despite fielding a rookie QB, the Colts have been excellent (ranked fourth) on offense. Coordinator and acting head coach Bruce Arians has been creative keeping opposing defenses off balance. Look for Arians to continue to open up the playbook with variety in the passing game, which should aid an improving ground attack in this matchup.
Turnover battle and special teams: Both clubs have been poor (Indianapolis is minus-9; while Buffalo is minus-7) in the turnover department. Buffalo clearly has the advantage in the kicking game with a more efficient place-kicker (Rian Lindell). Bills return specialist Leodis McKelvin leads the league in punt returns (22-yard average with two TDs) and is dangerous any time he touches the ball. Expect both of these phases to have a huge impact.
Home QB: Andrew Luck is coming off a tough outing (three interceptions) in a road loss to the Patriots. He is an excellent combination of size, strength and athleticism for the position. He has great vision and instincts for a rookie signal-caller and shows poise beyond his years. Luck continues to be somewhat inconsistent with his accuracy, and he forced the ball into coverage too often in Week 11. He does have the ability to power the ball into tight spaces and can make all the throws. Luck is an outstanding, young quarterback who has showed great mental toughness and leadership.
Away QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick is coming off a modest outing (only 168 yards passing) but was efficient with the football in the Bills' Week 11 victory over the Dolphins. He has adequate size, strength and athleticism for the position. He's not one to power the ball into tight windows but is successful with great timing, technique and instincts in the passing game. Fitzpatrick is streaky passer who gets the ball out quickly and usually takes what a defense gives him. He can improvise to extend the play but works best from the pocket. Fitzpatrick can put up big numbers given time to scan the field but needs the aid of an effective ground attack to be effective.
Key positional battle -- Colts' receiving corps vs. Bills' secondary: Indianapolis has a variety of talent targets in the passing game (Reggie Wayne, Donnie Avery, T.Y. Hilton and LaVon Brazill) that can put pressure on any secondary. The Bills' secondary had a solid game versus the Dolphins but has been exploited on several occasions in 2012. Buffalo is very athletic, but it fields two young corners (rookie Stephon Gilmore and second-year player Aaron Williams) who could struggle to slow this bunch when Luck puts the ball in the air.
Featured player: Spiller lacks great size but he has explosive quickness and burst in the open field. He has the ability to outrun angles that defenders have on him and can take it the distance any time he touches the ball. Spiller is dangerous as a receiver out of the backfield with speed to pick up chunks of yards. He has deceptive power between the tackles but does most of his damage on the edges. Spiller accounts for almost 30 percent of the Buffalo offense.
Film room nuggets: Hilton has great quickness and speed as a young route runner to get separation. He has shown the ability to run away from defenders after the catch when they appear to have the angle on him. ... McKelvin has excellent vision to set up blockers, find a crease and explode for chunks of yards. His natural instincts and athleticism make him dangerous whenever he touches the ball.
Prediction
Indianapolis 27
Buffalo 24
The Bills are coming off an impressive win, while the Colts got hammered in Week 11. Buffalo is a more veteran club but Indianapolis has excellent young talent. The Colts bounce back with another great effort at home.
Broncos-Chiefs:
Expect Chiefs' troubled offense to struggle
QB RB WR OL DB ST Coach = Broncos
DL LB = Chiefs
Slow the game down: Kansas City needs to make this a slow game by sticking to the run and sustaining long, clock-eating drives. If the Chiefs get into a track meet with Peyton Manning and the Broncos, they will definitely struggle to keep it close. Look for the Chiefs to use the maximum time on the clock on each snap and do everything possible to keep the clock moving. If the Chiefs let the Broncos get an early lead and are forced to throw the ball to play catch-up, they will play into the hands of Denver's explosive edge rushers.
Protect the edges: Kansas City has two explosive edge rushers -- outside linebackers Tamba Hali and Justin Houston -- and Manning is not the most elusive quarterback in the NFL. Look for Denver to do a lot of situational substituting to keep a back or tight end in to help protect the edge and give Manning more time in the pocket.
Play from a lead: Everybody wants to score quickly, but against the Chiefs it is even more important. Kansas City lacks the kind of explosive passing game that would allow it to mount many comebacks, especially considering the quarterback situation. As soon as the Chiefs are forced to throw the ball, they are in trouble. Their line struggles to protect the pocket and none of their quarterbacks has shown the ability to take the team downfield on winning drives late in the game.
Home QB: Kansas City has been struggling at quarterback. Both Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn have played, and neither has set himself apart. At best we are talking about a game-manager. These guys need to avoid making mistakes and hope the ground game and the defense keeps this game close.
Away QB: Manning is the epitome of a game-changer. He is one of the best at checking out of a bad play and into a good one from the line of scrimmage, and he comes into each game prepared for virtually every possibility. He excels at reading coverages and is a pinpoint passer when he has time in the pocket. He has enough agility to buy time by stepping up in the pocket or sidestepping the rush but is most effective when throwing out of the pocket.
Key positional battle -- Broncos' OTs vs. Chiefs' OLBs: The Chiefs generate a dynamic pass rush off the edge with outside linebackers Hali and Houston. They both bring an excellent combination of speed, athleticism and power, and they can use speed, counter moves or strength to collapse the pocket. Denver's tackles, Ryan Clady and Orlando Franklin, will have their hands full as they try to keep Manning upright.
Case for the underdog: Hali and Houston have the potential to come up with game-changing plays for the Chiefs. They both have the speed to come off the edge and have developed strong counter moves when needed. They have the ability to transfer speed into power when needed. If the Chiefs hope to keep this game close, they need to find ways to get to Manning and throw him off his timing and rhythm.
Film room nuggets: Manning has shown consistent improvement after a year-long layoff. He is looking as confident as ever, and although his arm strength may not be what it once was, it is plenty strong enough. ... Strong safety Eric Berry has been one of the few bright spots for the Chiefs this year. He is extremely mobile and has a great nose for the ball. It looks like he has returned to full strength after missing the 2011 season with a knee injury.
Prediction
Denver 30
Kansas City 17
Denver's defense should dominate a struggling Kansas City offense. Manning may not score at will but should have plenty of opportunities to put up points off good field position thanks to turnovers or big returns.
Seahawks-Dolphins:
Rookie quarterbacks going in opposite directions
QB RB WR DL LB DB Coach = Seahawks
OL ST = Dolphins
Stop Lynch: The Dolphins are one of the hardest teams to run against in the league, but Seattle will not abandon its physical rushing attack that is led by Marshawn Lynch. Few backs can wear a defense down like Lynch. Max Unger has quietly been one of the best centers in the league and will have a stiff challenge against Paul Soliai in the run game. Miami linebacker Karlos Dansby has been quite impressive on the second level, especially against the run. Seattle's offensive line, which takes a lot of penalties, will have its hands full on the road.
Get after Tannehill: Seattle might be the best pass-rushing defense in the league. On throwing downs, the Seahawks substitute Bruce Irvin and Jason Jones into the game. Irvin is very explosive off the edge, and Jones is a great interior pass-rusher. But even in their base personnel, the Seahawks excel at harassing quarterbacks. Ryan Tannehill has been far more effective against the blitz than vs. four or fewer pass-rushers, so it would not be a surprise if Seattle rarely brought extra pressure in Miami.
Get something going on the ground: The Dolphins' offensive line was whipped by the Bills' defensive line in Week 11. Miami's running game averaged just 2.5 yards per carry in that game. Daniel Thomas and Reggie Bush pretty much split carries now. But with Tannehill and the Dolphins' passing game struggling, Miami needs to get something accomplished on the ground. The Dolphins play a high percentage of base 21 personnel (two backs, one TE) and keep it pretty simple overall. Tannehill has been excellent with play-action passing and will need to be once again this week.
Home QB: Tannehill has struggled mightily for two games in a row now, but the problems with this offense certainly do not belong all on him. This supporting cast is really rough right now. Tannehill is quite advanced mentally for a rookie quarterback, but Seattle is extremely talented on defense and throws a lot at its opponent tactically. Like most rookie signal-callers, Tannehill has struggled in the red zone. Tannehill managed just 141 yards passing in Buffalo in Week 11.
Away QB: Like Tannehill, Russell Wilson has exceeded expectations in his rookie season. But unlike Tannehill, Wilson is improving every week instead of going backward. Sidney Rice and Golden Tate have improved as the season has progressed, and opposing wide receivers have been quite productive against Miami this year. Wilson has been better throwing between the numbers, but that might be a difficult area of the field to exploit this week. One member of Miami's secondary who has really stepped up is Reshad Jones, who had a whopping 14 tackles last week. Wilson might be wise to target Nolan Carroll, who was really plagued by penalties in coverage vs. Buffalo.
Key positional battle -- Dolphins' OL vs. Seahawks' DL: Maurkice Pouncey is having a terrific season for Miami, but this week will be a huge challenge for the second-year center and the rest of Miami's offensive line. Brandon Mebane in particular has clogged the middle exceptionally well. Jake Long hasn't played at as high of a level as usual, and he will have his hands full with Chris Clemons in the pass game. But because of Jonathan Martin's struggles on the right side, Long will have to handle Clemons one-on-one a high percentage of the time. Martin was consistently beaten last week.
Featured player: Brian Hartline is having a fine season as Tannehill's favorite option. Hartline is also seeing a lot of red zone targets. But this team doesn't have a field-stretching option, which allows the defense to put a lot of bodies near the line of scrimmage. That is a huge problem against Seattle's defense. Led by Richard Sherman, the Seahawks have one of the best secondaries in football.
Film room nuggets: Cameron Wake is a terror of a pass-rusher off the edge, and Randy Starks provides a consistent inside push. If the Dolphins can consistently get Wake matched up against Breno Giacomini, Wilson could be running for his life from front-side pressure. ... Much attention is given to the Seahawks' defensive linemen and their secondary, but Seattle is also very strong on the second level. Linebacker Bobby Wagner is quickly becoming the quarterback of this defense in his rookie season. He plays every down and is excelling as a run stuffer, blitzer and coverage player. Wagner looks to have an extremely bright future.
Prediction
Seattle 17
Miami 10
In the first half of last Thursday's loss to the Bills, the Dolphins had more penalty yards than offensive yards. Seattle's defense doesn't have a weakness. The Seahawks are better at home than on the road, but they'll be a tough challenge for Tannehill.
Falcons-Bucs:
The Falcons need to stop the Bucs' running game
QB WR DB ST Coach = Falcons
RB OL DL LB = Bucs
Crowd the box on early downs: The Falcons are not exactly a big team up front and are giving up a lot more rushing yards than head coach Mike Smith wants. With the Buccaneers developing a powerful ground game behind rookie RB Doug Martin, look for defensive coordinator Mike Nolan to push an eighth defender up into the box in an attempt to shore up one of the league's weaker run defenses. If Martin gets off to a quick start it could end up being a long afternoon for the Falcons.
Account for Gonzalez in the red zone: Atlanta TE Tony Gonzalez is one of QB Matt Ryan's favorite targets when the Falcons get inside the opposition's 20. Gonzalez is one of the best at locating passing lanes to settle in when facing zone coverage, which the Buccaneers tend to favor. Even when he is in tight man coverage, Ryan likes his odds that Gonzalez will come up with the catch when he puts the ball in the right place. Look for Tampa Bay to bracket Gonzalez with two defenders when Atlanta is getting close to the end zone.
Protect the football: All season these teams have been among the leaders in turnover ratio. But in Week 11, the Falcons finished with a minus-5 and the Buccaneers had a minus-2, even though both came back to eke out wins. Look for a heavy emphasis on ball security by both teams.
Home QB: Josh Freeman is a very solid quarterback with excellent size and a strong arm. He is athletic for a big guy and can extend the play with quick feet and get the ball out from the perimeter. He is asked to manage the team and make solid throws when the opportunity presents itself. This is a team that relies on a strong ground game to open things up on the back end and Freeman has shown the ability to lead his team down for game-winning drives when needed.
Away QB: Ryan is enjoying an excellent season; he has been asked to lead this team from a vocal as well as a performance standpoint. He was doing a good job of limiting interceptions before throwing five picks against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 11, and he is hitting on 67.5 percent of his passes. Ryan can throw from the perimeter as well as from the pocket, and has shown the ability to bring his team back from a deficit late in the game.
Key positional battle -- Falcons' WRs vs. Bucs' secondary: As much as Smith would like to dominate up front with a powerful ground game, it's Atlanta's passing attack that has been productive this year. The Falcons own a top-five passing attack when it comes to yards per game. Ryan has big, physical receivers who can catch it in a crowd. The Buccaneers' defense has 15 interceptions, third best in the league. The Bucs get most of their picks thanks to pressure up front.
Featured player: Atlanta needs to get RB Michael Turner untracked. He has been averaging just 2.2 yards a carry over the past two games. Against a powerful defense like Tampa Bay's, a team needs a balanced attack to thrive.
Film room nuggets: Free safety Thomas DeCoud has steadily grown into a quality centerfielder for Atlanta's secondary. He has good speed over the top to go with excellent instincts and the ability to get a quick read on opposing quarterbacks. ... Tampa Bay free safety Ronde Barber has done an excellent job of settling into his new role after playing cornerback for most of his career. He gives the Buccaneers a ball-hawking safety with excellent foot agility and good top-end speed. ... WR Vincent Jackson is looking like the offseason signing of the year. He's given the Buccaneers a quality receiver who can stretch the secondary and provide an excellent target in the red zone.
Prediction
Tampa Bay 21
Atlanta 20
Atlanta's run defense has made a lot of backs look good this year, and it will be facing a dynamic one in Doug Martin. Unless they figure out a way to contain Tampa Bay's ground game, it will be a long day for the Falcons.
Titans-Jaguars:
Jags need Blackmon to follow up breakout game
QB RB OL DL LB ST Coach = Titans
WR DB = Jaguars
Get Blackmon involved early: WR Justin Blackmon is Jacksonville's leading receiver but hasn't made a great connection with Blaine Gabbert. After replacing Gabbert, backup QB Chad Henne made almost an immediate impact as he hit Blackmon with a 63-yard pass on the first play of the second series after replacing Gabbert. Blackmon went on to have a career game, finishing with 236 receiving yards on seven catches with an 81-yard touchdown catch. The Jaguars need a dynamic passing attack, and with Blackmon and the speedy Cecil Shorts out wide, they can get vertical quickly.
Eat up the clock with ground game: When Titans RB Chris Johnson is on his game, he can dominate. He is explosive and eats up large chunks of ground when he is able to find any crease. He appears to be back on track as he has averaged 6.7 yards per carry over the past five games while putting up 652 yards. An explosive ground game makes QB Jake Locker even more effective as the defense needs to stay home and honor the possibility of Johnson running the ball, not to mention Locker's running skills as well as the pass.
Limit Jacksonville's YAC: Shorts has been productive when it comes to yards after the catch, but Blackmon was averaging just 2.12 yards after the catch until last week. Against Houston, he turned that all around as he showed balance on contact as well as the speed to take it all the way with one broken tackle. Tennessee needs to gang tackle in the secondary and limit the number of yards Jacksonville's receivers manage to put up after they get the ball in their hands.
Home QB: Gabbert injured his throwing elbow in the first quarter against the Texans and, especially in light of the performance of Jacksonville's veteran backup, it's looking like we may see Henne leading the Jaguars in this game. He is a seasoned veteran who showed the ability to make quick decisions, something the Jaguars have lacked under Gabbert. While Henne isn't going to carry this team on his arm, he will give Jacksonville a chance by limiting the number of bad decisions and forced throws.
Away QB: Locker was a first-round selection in the 2011 draft but was fortunate to be given a year to sit and learn during his rookie season. Although he has missed a good portion of the 2012 season with a shoulder injury, he has shown the ability to effectively manage this team and make plays when needed. He is a big, athletic quarterback with a good arm and has made dramatic improvements in his accuracy when given time. He returned from the shoulder injury to lead the Titans to a big win over the Dolphins in Week 10 and gives the Titans an added dimension with his running and scrambling skills.
Key positional battle -- Jaguars' WRs vs. Titans' secondary: With all-everything RB Maurice Jones-Drew likely out for another week, it will be up to Jacksonville's receivers to step up and produce again this week. Shorts and Blackmon, along with TE Marcedes Lewis, are the Jaguars' most explosive weapons and need to put up big numbers. Tennessee's secondary is strong on the perimeter but can be exposed down the middle. Strong safety Jordan Babineaux and FS Michael Griffin are better in run support than they are in coverage and need to be sure to keep everything in front of them.
Featured player: Tennessee needs a big game out of Johnson. He is the type of runner who can strike from virtually anywhere on the field with his speed and open-field running skills. Look for offensive coordinator Chris Palmer to feed the ball to Johnson often and early as the Titans try to get him into space, where he is most effective.
Film room nuggets: Jacksonville LT Eugene Monroe is quietly having a great season. He is massive with long arms and good foot agility, letting him react and adjust to speed rushers coming off the edge. ... Henne is a safer pick when it comes to finishing out the season for Jacksonville. He is a heady quarterback who knows how to read coverages and makes quicker decisions. ... Griffin is a solid tackler both in space as well as in the hole, but he can be a liability in coverage. He bites on fakes and looks choppy in transition when driving to close on the ball thrown in front of him.
Prediction
Tennessee 24
Jacksonville 20
Jacksonville's defense gives up too many explosive plays and will likely struggle to keep Johnson under wraps.
Ravens-Chargers:
Ravens' D can force errors
QB DL LB = Chargers
RB WR OL DB ST Coach = Ravens
Account for Ray Rice: Rice accounts for a majority of the Ravens' offense. He leads the team in rushing with 697 yards and is also the second-leading receiver with 40 catches. He is one of the rare three-down backs. Although the Ravens may not rely on Rice alone to keep drives alive, he is definitely a major piece of the puzzle. Expect San Diego defensive coordinator John Pagano to focus on keeping Rice in check and limiting his overall production.
Pressure the pocket: This is not the Baltimore defense that we are accustomed to seeing, especially with perennial All-Pro LB Ray Lewis out for the year with a triceps injury. The key to stopping San Diego's offense this year is to pressure quarterback Philip Rivers, who has struggled to connect with his receivers because of marginal protection up front. The Ravens need to get their pressure package on track, especially now that outside linebacker Terrell Suggs is back in the lineup. Look for a dialed-up pressure package from defensive coordinator Dean Pees and both Suggs and LB Paul Kruger to come off the edge.
Protect the football: San Diego has 22 giveaways through its 10 games, the third-highest total in the NFL. The Ravens are one of the better teams in the league at protecting the ball and have just nine give-aways. The Chargers need to do a better job of protecting the rock, especially in the passing game. They are facing a top-10 defense for interceptions.
Home QB: Rivers is very talented but has been very inconsistent this season. His interception-to-touchdown ratio is higher than it should be, but he still manages to find ways to pull games out in the end. He has enough foot quickness to extend the pocket and can get the ball out with velocity and accuracy from the perimeter. When he is on, he is definitely a difference-maker who carries this team.
Away QB: Joe Flacco is another big, strong-armed quarterback who can make all the throws necessary. He is more of a pocket passer than a scrambler but can extend the play and get the ball out from the perimeter when necessary. He is forcing the ball less frequently than he has in the past and is more willing to take the check-down throw when everything deep is covered. He is still very effective with the downfield throws, especially given the speed he has available on the perimeter.
Key positional battle -- Ravens' RBs vs. Chargers LBs: Rice is one of the best all-purpose backs in the NFL -- running, receiving and the blitz pickup. San Diego has one of the league's best run defenses and gets most of its pass rush from linebackers. The ability of the Chargers' linebackers to keep Rice under wraps and get to the quarterback will be key.
Case for the underdog: The Chargers have shown a knack for shooting themselves in the foot with poor pass protection and ill-timed interceptions. If the offensive line can keep Rivers upright, giving him time to go through his progressions and receivers time to finish their routes, the Chargers could thrive at home.
Film room nuggets: Rivers has been taking too long to make decisions. He needs to get the ball out more quickly and display a better feel for the pass rush. ... Ravens WR Torrey Smith is one of the league's better downfield threats who is averaging more than 17 yards a catch to go with his seven touchdown receptions. He is explosive off the line and has a second gear once he gets under way. ... San Diego DE Corey Liuget has stepped up his game this year and gives the Chargers an excellent pass-rusher and a strong run defender. He plays with an excellent pad level while doing a great job of using his hands to defeat and shed blockers.
Prediction
San Diego 24
Baltimore 20
The Chargers have their backs to the wall, and the Ravens appear to be gaining momentum. They will pressure Rivers into bad decisions and win the turnover battle.
The Falcons need to stop the Bucs' running game
QB WR DB ST Coach = Falcons
RB OL DL LB = Bucs
Crowd the box on early downs: The Falcons are not exactly a big team up front and are giving up a lot more rushing yards than head coach Mike Smith wants. With the Buccaneers developing a powerful ground game behind rookie RB Doug Martin, look for defensive coordinator Mike Nolan to push an eighth defender up into the box in an attempt to shore up one of the league's weaker run defenses. If Martin gets off to a quick start it could end up being a long afternoon for the Falcons.
Account for Gonzalez in the red zone: Atlanta TE Tony Gonzalez is one of QB Matt Ryan's favorite targets when the Falcons get inside the opposition's 20. Gonzalez is one of the best at locating passing lanes to settle in when facing zone coverage, which the Buccaneers tend to favor. Even when he is in tight man coverage, Ryan likes his odds that Gonzalez will come up with the catch when he puts the ball in the right place. Look for Tampa Bay to bracket Gonzalez with two defenders when Atlanta is getting close to the end zone.
Protect the football: All season these teams have been among the leaders in turnover ratio. But in Week 11, the Falcons finished with a minus-5 and the Buccaneers had a minus-2, even though both came back to eke out wins. Look for a heavy emphasis on ball security by both teams.
Home QB: Josh Freeman is a very solid quarterback with excellent size and a strong arm. He is athletic for a big guy and can extend the play with quick feet and get the ball out from the perimeter. He is asked to manage the team and make solid throws when the opportunity presents itself. This is a team that relies on a strong ground game to open things up on the back end and Freeman has shown the ability to lead his team down for game-winning drives when needed.
Away QB: Ryan is enjoying an excellent season; he has been asked to lead this team from a vocal as well as a performance standpoint. He was doing a good job of limiting interceptions before throwing five picks against the Arizona Cardinals in Week 11, and he is hitting on 67.5 percent of his passes. Ryan can throw from the perimeter as well as from the pocket, and has shown the ability to bring his team back from a deficit late in the game.
Key positional battle -- Falcons' WRs vs. Bucs' secondary: As much as Smith would like to dominate up front with a powerful ground game, it's Atlanta's passing attack that has been productive this year. The Falcons own a top-five passing attack when it comes to yards per game. Ryan has big, physical receivers who can catch it in a crowd. The Buccaneers' defense has 15 interceptions, third best in the league. The Bucs get most of their picks thanks to pressure up front.
Featured player: Atlanta needs to get RB Michael Turner untracked. He has been averaging just 2.2 yards a carry over the past two games. Against a powerful defense like Tampa Bay's, a team needs a balanced attack to thrive.
Film room nuggets: Free safety Thomas DeCoud has steadily grown into a quality centerfielder for Atlanta's secondary. He has good speed over the top to go with excellent instincts and the ability to get a quick read on opposing quarterbacks. ... Tampa Bay free safety Ronde Barber has done an excellent job of settling into his new role after playing cornerback for most of his career. He gives the Buccaneers a ball-hawking safety with excellent foot agility and good top-end speed. ... WR Vincent Jackson is looking like the offseason signing of the year. He's given the Buccaneers a quality receiver who can stretch the secondary and provide an excellent target in the red zone.
Prediction
Tampa Bay 21
Atlanta 20
Atlanta's run defense has made a lot of backs look good this year, and it will be facing a dynamic one in Doug Martin. Unless they figure out a way to contain Tampa Bay's ground game, it will be a long day for the Falcons.
Titans-Jaguars:
Jags need Blackmon to follow up breakout game
QB RB OL DL LB ST Coach = Titans
WR DB = Jaguars
Get Blackmon involved early: WR Justin Blackmon is Jacksonville's leading receiver but hasn't made a great connection with Blaine Gabbert. After replacing Gabbert, backup QB Chad Henne made almost an immediate impact as he hit Blackmon with a 63-yard pass on the first play of the second series after replacing Gabbert. Blackmon went on to have a career game, finishing with 236 receiving yards on seven catches with an 81-yard touchdown catch. The Jaguars need a dynamic passing attack, and with Blackmon and the speedy Cecil Shorts out wide, they can get vertical quickly.
Eat up the clock with ground game: When Titans RB Chris Johnson is on his game, he can dominate. He is explosive and eats up large chunks of ground when he is able to find any crease. He appears to be back on track as he has averaged 6.7 yards per carry over the past five games while putting up 652 yards. An explosive ground game makes QB Jake Locker even more effective as the defense needs to stay home and honor the possibility of Johnson running the ball, not to mention Locker's running skills as well as the pass.
Limit Jacksonville's YAC: Shorts has been productive when it comes to yards after the catch, but Blackmon was averaging just 2.12 yards after the catch until last week. Against Houston, he turned that all around as he showed balance on contact as well as the speed to take it all the way with one broken tackle. Tennessee needs to gang tackle in the secondary and limit the number of yards Jacksonville's receivers manage to put up after they get the ball in their hands.
Home QB: Gabbert injured his throwing elbow in the first quarter against the Texans and, especially in light of the performance of Jacksonville's veteran backup, it's looking like we may see Henne leading the Jaguars in this game. He is a seasoned veteran who showed the ability to make quick decisions, something the Jaguars have lacked under Gabbert. While Henne isn't going to carry this team on his arm, he will give Jacksonville a chance by limiting the number of bad decisions and forced throws.
Away QB: Locker was a first-round selection in the 2011 draft but was fortunate to be given a year to sit and learn during his rookie season. Although he has missed a good portion of the 2012 season with a shoulder injury, he has shown the ability to effectively manage this team and make plays when needed. He is a big, athletic quarterback with a good arm and has made dramatic improvements in his accuracy when given time. He returned from the shoulder injury to lead the Titans to a big win over the Dolphins in Week 10 and gives the Titans an added dimension with his running and scrambling skills.
Key positional battle -- Jaguars' WRs vs. Titans' secondary: With all-everything RB Maurice Jones-Drew likely out for another week, it will be up to Jacksonville's receivers to step up and produce again this week. Shorts and Blackmon, along with TE Marcedes Lewis, are the Jaguars' most explosive weapons and need to put up big numbers. Tennessee's secondary is strong on the perimeter but can be exposed down the middle. Strong safety Jordan Babineaux and FS Michael Griffin are better in run support than they are in coverage and need to be sure to keep everything in front of them.
Featured player: Tennessee needs a big game out of Johnson. He is the type of runner who can strike from virtually anywhere on the field with his speed and open-field running skills. Look for offensive coordinator Chris Palmer to feed the ball to Johnson often and early as the Titans try to get him into space, where he is most effective.
Film room nuggets: Jacksonville LT Eugene Monroe is quietly having a great season. He is massive with long arms and good foot agility, letting him react and adjust to speed rushers coming off the edge. ... Henne is a safer pick when it comes to finishing out the season for Jacksonville. He is a heady quarterback who knows how to read coverages and makes quicker decisions. ... Griffin is a solid tackler both in space as well as in the hole, but he can be a liability in coverage. He bites on fakes and looks choppy in transition when driving to close on the ball thrown in front of him.
Prediction
Tennessee 24
Jacksonville 20
Jacksonville's defense gives up too many explosive plays and will likely struggle to keep Johnson under wraps.
Ravens-Chargers:
Ravens' D can force errors
QB DL LB = Chargers
RB WR OL DB ST Coach = Ravens
Account for Ray Rice: Rice accounts for a majority of the Ravens' offense. He leads the team in rushing with 697 yards and is also the second-leading receiver with 40 catches. He is one of the rare three-down backs. Although the Ravens may not rely on Rice alone to keep drives alive, he is definitely a major piece of the puzzle. Expect San Diego defensive coordinator John Pagano to focus on keeping Rice in check and limiting his overall production.
Pressure the pocket: This is not the Baltimore defense that we are accustomed to seeing, especially with perennial All-Pro LB Ray Lewis out for the year with a triceps injury. The key to stopping San Diego's offense this year is to pressure quarterback Philip Rivers, who has struggled to connect with his receivers because of marginal protection up front. The Ravens need to get their pressure package on track, especially now that outside linebacker Terrell Suggs is back in the lineup. Look for a dialed-up pressure package from defensive coordinator Dean Pees and both Suggs and LB Paul Kruger to come off the edge.
Protect the football: San Diego has 22 giveaways through its 10 games, the third-highest total in the NFL. The Ravens are one of the better teams in the league at protecting the ball and have just nine give-aways. The Chargers need to do a better job of protecting the rock, especially in the passing game. They are facing a top-10 defense for interceptions.
Home QB: Rivers is very talented but has been very inconsistent this season. His interception-to-touchdown ratio is higher than it should be, but he still manages to find ways to pull games out in the end. He has enough foot quickness to extend the pocket and can get the ball out with velocity and accuracy from the perimeter. When he is on, he is definitely a difference-maker who carries this team.
Away QB: Joe Flacco is another big, strong-armed quarterback who can make all the throws necessary. He is more of a pocket passer than a scrambler but can extend the play and get the ball out from the perimeter when necessary. He is forcing the ball less frequently than he has in the past and is more willing to take the check-down throw when everything deep is covered. He is still very effective with the downfield throws, especially given the speed he has available on the perimeter.
Key positional battle -- Ravens' RBs vs. Chargers LBs: Rice is one of the best all-purpose backs in the NFL -- running, receiving and the blitz pickup. San Diego has one of the league's best run defenses and gets most of its pass rush from linebackers. The ability of the Chargers' linebackers to keep Rice under wraps and get to the quarterback will be key.
Case for the underdog: The Chargers have shown a knack for shooting themselves in the foot with poor pass protection and ill-timed interceptions. If the offensive line can keep Rivers upright, giving him time to go through his progressions and receivers time to finish their routes, the Chargers could thrive at home.
Film room nuggets: Rivers has been taking too long to make decisions. He needs to get the ball out more quickly and display a better feel for the pass rush. ... Ravens WR Torrey Smith is one of the league's better downfield threats who is averaging more than 17 yards a catch to go with his seven touchdown receptions. He is explosive off the line and has a second gear once he gets under way. ... San Diego DE Corey Liuget has stepped up his game this year and gives the Chargers an excellent pass-rusher and a strong run defender. He plays with an excellent pad level while doing a great job of using his hands to defeat and shed blockers.
Prediction
San Diego 24
Baltimore 20
The Chargers have their backs to the wall, and the Ravens appear to be gaining momentum. They will pressure Rivers into bad decisions and win the turnover battle.