Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

Skooby · Nov 22, 2012

49ers-Saints:

Brees presents challenge for 49ers' defense

QB WR OL = Saints

RB DL LB DB ST Coach = 49ers

Take what the defense gives you: There may be no quarterback who does a better job of taking what the defense gives than the Saints' Drew Brees. He is a great decision-maker and one of the best at distributing the ball to all of his receivers and not forcing the issue. The Saints can't afford to get greedy or impatient. The 49ers are one of the best-tackling teams in the NFL, as evidenced by their ability to prevent explosive plays and limit their opponents' yards after the catch.

San Francisco will run the ball: The 49ers are serious about wanting a balanced offense. They run the ball more often than they pass it, and when playing an explosive offense like the Saints they need to do everything possible to dominate the time of possession. Look for a heavy dose of Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter, who are each averaging at least 5 yards a carry.

Make Brees uncomfortable: San Francisco is one of the few teams that can bring a lot of heat on passing downs without having to resort to situational substitutions. In the 49ers' base package, DT Justin Smith and OLB Aldon Smith do an excellent job of getting push from the left side with either a straight-on rush or with Aldon Smith twisting to the inside as Justin Smith occupies both the offensive guard and tackle. If they can get to Brees and force him to get the ball out before he wants to, it could definitely limit his effectiveness.

Home QB: Brees is an elite quarterback with game-changing skills. He understands the game and is one of the best when it comes to reading coverages and spreading around the ball. He is an extremely accurate passer both downfield and underneath. He is very athletic and can extend the play with foot agility and speed while getting the ball out while on the move. He gives his team a chance to win when he has the ball in his hands late in the game.

Away QB: Alex Smith was enjoying his best season before being knocked out of the St. Louis game in Week 10 with a concussion. He is most effective when the 49ers are able to limit his throws to 25 or fewer and their ground game makes his play-action fakes effective. He is a good decision-maker and accurate on the underneath throws while doing an excellent job of protecting the ball. If he is unable to go, the 49ers will start Colin Kaepernick, who looked great Monday night and gives them an added dimension on the ground.

Key positional battle -- 49ers' O-line vs. Saints' front four: San Francisco head coach Jim Harbaugh will want to slow this game down with a deliberate running game, which means his offensive line needs to dominate up front. With the league's top-ranked run game, the 49ers have a chance to limit the number of possessions Brees gets. It will be up to the Saints' defensive front to maintain gap responsibility and limit Gore's running lanes.

Case for the underdog: Any time you have a quarterback like Brees under center, you always have a chance to win. Brees can absolutely take over and make a defense pay for blitzing too often with good pre-snap reads. The Saints have their collective backs to the wall as they try to scrap their way back into the playoff picture, and Brees is the kind of quarterback who can pull it off.

Film room nuggets: Justin Smith is in his 12th year but is still playing at a very high level. He gives supreme effort on each play and displays excellent leverage and hand use as he continues to work his way to the ball. ... Linebacker Jonathan Vilma has provided a much-needed spark for the Saints' defense. He is one of the smartest linebackers in the NFL and gives the coaches a guy who can make in-game adjustments while on the field. ... Niners tight end Delanie Walker is a superb blocker on the back side and at the point of attack and consistently comes up with the clutch catch to keep drives alive. He runs excellent routes and shows great ball skills when competing for the catch in traffic.

Prediction

New Orleans 27
San Francisco 24

A classic game of a dominating offense vs. a dominating defense. While normally the edge goes to the defense, the Saints' ability to score from so many different positions should prove to be the difference.

Rams-Cardinals:

Running game key for Rams

QB RB WR Coach = Rams

OL DL LB DB ST = Cardinals

Account for Amendola: Danny Amendola is not the biggest, fastest or flashiest receiver in the NFL, but he is definitely Sam Bradford's safety valve. Since returning from injury he was targeted 12 and 11 times over the past two weeks. Look for Cardinals defensive coordinator Ray Horton to roll coverage to Amendola's side, especially on third down.

Give Jackson his touches: This is not likely going to be a high-scoring game considering the strength of Arizona's defense, not to mention its inability to move the chains on offense. Time of possession and the ability to keep the chains moving will be big in this game. If Rams RB Steven Jackson can get untracked early, it would take a lot of pressure off the passing game. Arizona can bring a lot of heat on obvious passing downs, so if St. Louis can run the ball, it would do a lot to give the Rams a chance to come out ahead.

Win with defense: The Cardinals simply lack an explosive player on offense whom they can ride on a consistent basis, although getting RB Beanie Wells back will help. WR Larry Fitzgerald is dropping passes like never before and definitely looks like something is not quite right. Horton has done a great job of designing a pressure package that has produced sacks and interceptions, and has his defense ranked ninth overall. If the Cardinals are going to keep this game close, it will be up to their defense to limit the Rams both on the ground as well as through the air.

Home QB: Quarterback is definitely a position of concern for the Cardinals. Kevin Kolb started throwing recently but appears to be a couple of weeks away from returning from a sternoclavicular injury. John Skelton was yanked in the second quarter of last week's game despite having a 13-3 lead over the Atlanta Falcons. Rookie Ryan Lindley finished the loss and did not look particularly impressive. No matter who is behind center, the staff is looking for a game-manager who won't make mistakes or turn the ball over.

Away QB: Bradford is a big quarterback with all the physical tools to be a franchise player. He has a very strong arm and a quick release and can be very accurate when given time in the pocket. He has done a good job of cutting down on his interceptions and has improved on his completion percentage in spite of missing Amendola for three games this year. He can be a game-changer but needs to show more consistency over the course of a full season.

Key positional battle -- Cardinals' LB corps vs. Rams' O-line: Arizona's linebackers generate a lot of pressure with blitzes coming off the edge or up the middle. They are led by inside LB Daryl Washington, who has eight sacks, but can also come off the edge with Sam Acho or Quentin Groves. Just how well St. Louis' offensive line manages to recognize stunts and blitzes on passing downs and then get a big body on those linebackers will be key.

Case for the underdog: If St. Louis can establish a strong ground game behind Jackson and backup Daryl Richardson, it will have a good chance at coming out ahead. They also need to protect the rock, which is easier to do when you are running the ball effectively.

Film room nuggets: Fitzgerald does not look right. He is dropping passes that he made look routine in the past as he has caught just 50 percent of the balls thrown his direction. After averaging 17.6 yards per catch in 2011, he is averaging just 11.5 this season. ... Arizona is really struggling to protect the edge in pass protection. The Cards' O-line has given up a league-high 44 sacks, most of which have been coming off the edge.

Prediction

Arizona 17
St. Louis 16

The Cardinals' defense should keep them in this game. Their ability to create turnovers and give their offense a short field with which to work should provide the difference.

Packers-Giants:

Packers could struggle to protect Rodgers

QB WR DL LB DB ST = Packers

RB OL Coach = Giants

Keep Rodgers upright: The Giants have been exploited through the air in 2012 (258 yards per game), but their pressure has picked up in recent weeks with a talented front four. The Packers' offensive line has been inconsistent (33 sacks allowed) and could get Aaron Rodgers off his mark. Look for Packers coach Mike McCarthy to utilize more maximum and slide protections as well as additional blockers (back or tight end) to chip the edges, which should keep Rodgers upright and give him time to scan the field.

Play keep-away with balance: The Giants are coming off a bye after losing back-to-back games. They have been excellent at working for balance much of the season. The Packers' defense is banged up and could be exploited. Look for offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride to get the New York offense back on track with a good dose of the running game (featuring Ahmad Bradshaw) as well as high-percentage passes to keep an explosive Green Bay offense on the sidelines.

Takeaway battle and special teams: Both clubs have been good taking care of the football as well as creating turnovers (New York is plus-11 while Green Bay is plus-7) in 2012. The Giants uncharacteristically had four turnovers in their Week 10 loss to the Bengals. Both clubs have solid punters and place-kickers but the edge goes to the Packers in the return game. With these teams being so evenly matched, the takeaway battle and kicking game could determine the outcome.

Home QB: Eli Manning is an excellent combination of size, strength and athleticism. He is having a good season but is coming off a poor outing (215 yards, two interceptions) versus the Bengals in Week 10. Manning has been smart with his decision-making and accuracy. He can improvise and make plays outside the tackle box but is most productive from the pocket. Manning is capable of racking up big numbers through the air but can also have a clunker from time to time.

Away QB: Rodgers continues to play at a high level and is coming off a modest, two-touchdown performance (although he completed 70 percent of his attempts) in Week 11. He has good size with excellent arm strength and athleticism. He has great vision and instincts to find his second and third receiver in the passing game. He can fit the ball into tight spaces yet is judicious with his decision-making. He is excellent to move the chains with his legs, showing speed out of the pocket to pick up chunks of yards. Rodgers continues to be one of the best signal-callers in the league and almost impossible to keep at bay in any given week.

Key positional battle -- Giants' receiving corps vs. Packers' secondary: New York has excellent targets in the passing game (Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks, Domenik Hixon and Martellus Bennett). Green Bay plays a bend-don't-break philosophy in the secondary that matches up well with the Giants. New York has enough firepower to keep up with a high-powered Packers air assault, but it will likely take a more methodical approach (high-percentage routes).

Featured player: Cruz is the most productive offensive threat for the Giants. He has consistently moved the chains and is Manning's go-to guy in crucial situations. Cruz has average size but is an explosive route runner with speed and quickness to make big plays. He has excellent courage and concentration in traffic. Cruz leads New York in touchdown receptions (seven), and with all of the other talented weapons around him, it's tough to double-team him in passing situations.

Film room nuggets: With Clay Matthews out last week, Packers LB Erik Walden was very disruptive defending the run and rushing the passer. He showed good burst and counter moves off the edge with active hands to separate quickly. ... The Giants' Jason Pierre-Paul is a tall, angular defensive end who is one of the most disruptive players in the league. His length helps him separate quickly while his athleticism (explosive quickness) and deceptive strength keep offensive tackles off balance throughout much of the game.

Prediction

Green Bay 28
New York 27

These teams are very talented in all three phases of the game. The Giants are at home but the Packers have had more consistency in recent weeks. The nod goes to Green Bay.

Skooby · Nov 22, 2012

Panthers-Eagles:

Can either team clean up its act?

QB RB WR OL DL LB DB ST = Panthers

Coach = Eagles

Both offenses must protect the football: Despite their problems, both of these offenses are capable of moving the ball. However, neither seems to be able to finish drives, with penalties, turnovers and missed blocking assignments usually to blame. Interceptions and fumbles have plagued Panthers QB Cam Newton, although he played a clean game in Week 11. Eagles rookie QB Nick Foles seems to be a turnover waiting to happen, and Michael Vick's problems have been well-documented. This has the look of a low-scoring game and field position will likely be critical. Carolina has a potentially good run game, and that can allow Newton to not have to make every play, but the same cannot be said for the Eagles.

How do the Eagles manufacture offense? The Eagles' best player, RB LeSean McCoy, suffered a concussion late in the Week 11 loss to Washington and that makes his status a question mark for this Monday night contest. If McCoy is out, most of the carries will go to rookie RB Bryce Brown, who seems to be developing nicely but probably isn't ready for a full workload. Will the coaches give him enough carries, or will they abandon the run game early and become a one-dimensional pass offense? Look for the Eagles to run several draw plays, screens and dump-offs as an extension of the run game. If they can run successfully early, it can open up a play-action package that could give their vertical receivers pretty good one-on-one matchups.

What happened to Philadelphia's wide-nine defense? Where do we start? This was the best pass rush in the NFL a year ago, but in 2012 the Eagles have a measly 16 sacks. Also, they seem to have numerous breakdowns in coverage, their corners get beaten in man-to-man matchups with regularity, and safety help is usually late getting there. Newton is capable of putting up big passing numbers. If he has time to throw, it opens up a decent run game and he will have play-action opportunities versus potential one-on-one corner matchups.

Home QB: New QB, same results. Foles was asked to throw 46 times versus the Redskins' defense, which decided to come after him with a variety of pressure packages that he seemed ill-equipped to handle. Vick (concussion) could return this week, but his status will probably not be determined until closer to game time. What we do know is that either guy will line up behind an O-line that has been decimated with injuries and can't block anybody. Vick can make plays with his feet; Foles does not, and it is hard to imagine how either will have enough time to get the ball out accurately.

Away QB: Newton is really having an uneven year for the struggling Panthers, although their loss in Week 11 was not his fault as he made enough plays to win. He can physically make every throw and is always a threat to run, but at times he will hold the ball too long and will lock on to one receiver. If he plays a smart game and uses his run game to set up play-action, he can have a lot of success against the Eagles' corners. It will be interesting to see how he reacts to adversity if he has early problems.

Key positional battle -- Eagles' OTs vs. Panthers' DEs: This is a better Carolina edge pass rush than most people realize, and DEs Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson have combined for 15.5 sacks. They are relentless in their pressure and really work to finish the play. Both pay with leverage and can bull rush or use moves in space. The Eagles' OTs cannot protect the edges versus good rushers and there is a lot of miscommunication when they see blitzes and "games" by a defensive front. The Eagles rarely go to max protection schemes and often will show an empty backfield. Hardy and Johnson will likely get plenty of one-on-one blocking matchups and could have a big day versus whoever is at QB for the Eagles.

Featured players: The Panthers' LB trio of Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis, and James Anderson has quietly become the strength of this defense. These linebackers are especially effective versus the run, and with the Eagles' run game a huge question mark because of McCoy's concussion, they have a chance to dominate in run support and force Foles or Vick to throw too much. When that happens, this pretty effective Carolina pass rush can attack the quarterback. It would not be surprising to see the Panthers bring some inside blitzes to exploit Philadelphia's vulnerability in blitz pickup.

Film room nuggets: Both of these secondaries give up too many big plays in the passing game. The corners are frequently beaten in one-on-one schemes on deep routes and the communication is inconsistent. ... How can Carolina's run game be in the middle of the pack when it has three quality backs and a gifted QB who can run? We know the OL is inconsistent, but this should be a dominant run game.

Prediction

Carolina 14
Philadelphia 7

Cam Newton will be able to outperform a decimated Philadelphia offense, and that will be the difference in a less-than-perfect MNF contest.

yoyoyo1 · Nov 23, 2012

U.S. Soccer - Five reasons, including Tim Howard and Timmy Chandler's return, why USMNT fans should be thankful - ESPN

pretty please if its not too much to ask?

Skooby · Nov 24, 2012

yoyoyo1 said:
U.S. Soccer - Five reasons, including Tim Howard and Timmy Chandler's return, why USMNT fans should be thankful - ESPN

pretty please if its not too much to ask?

Five things to be thankful for in 2013

It's been a strange year for the U.S. team. The highs -- historic friendly wins in Italy and Mexico, a first-place group finish in the semifinal round of World Cup qualifying -- were balanced out by unconvincing performances against regional lightweights, leaving many fans still wondering what to make of Jurgen Klinsmann's team.

Still, it's hard to argue that 2012 wasn't a success for the Yanks.

They went 1-1-1 against the world's top-10 teams. They equaled their best annual winning percentage. And while that's probably not enough to completely satisfy a growing fan base with ever-increasing expectations -- realistic or otherwise -- even the most cynical U.S. supporters have to admit there are plenty of things to be thankful for heading into 2013.

Here are five of them:

Tim Howard

So much has changed for the national team since the 2010 World Cup. There's a new coach, a new high-pressure playing style and a new generation coming through the ranks. That makes the stability Howard provides crucial. Sometimes it can be easy to take the all-world keeper for granted.

The Yanks have long been spoiled by quality in goal; the Everton backstop occupies a spot once held by the likes of Brad Freidel and Kasey Keller. Not only has there been no drop-off on the field under Howard -- despite the relative lack of depth behind him for much of his career -- but his leadership qualities surpass those of his predecessors. That's part of the reason Howard will be the undisputed No. 1 for the Yanks all the way to Brazil, no matter how well Brad Guzan continues to play for Aston Villa.

Columbus and Kansas City

Locations for the Americans' five home World Cup qualifiers in 2013 haven't been determined yet, but you can bank on Crew Stadium in Columbus, Ohio, and KC's Livestrong Sporting Park being two of them. Both venues offer a decisive home-field advantage, something the Yanks haven't had often enough in meaningful games through the years. The difference this time around is the explosion in supporters' culture. Fan groups like the American Outlaws have grown in size and stature just in the past four years, a trend that figures to continue. With the rest of CONCACAF improving (next year's six-team Hexagonal field is arguably the strongest ever), the importance of the 12th man should not be underestimated.

The Hex schedule

Seriously. Sure, starting 2013 with three of four qualifiers on the road is tricky, but it could actually help the Yanks in the end. For the youngsters in Klinsmann's player pool, missing out on the 2012 Olympics denied them vital opportunity to develop. So some players have been integrated into the first team more slowly than they may have been otherwise. That process has already begun; seven Americans 23 years old or younger saw the field in last week's 2-2 draw in Russia. But the real opportunity for players like Juan Agudelo, Terrence Boyd, Joe Corona and Mix Diskerud will come next summer.

The Yanks will have an extended training camp ahead of three June qualifiers (and the rumored friendly against Germany) and July's Gold Cup roster will be stocked with players who would have been in London. Look for a couple of them to force their way into Klinsmann's XI for the final six qualifiers -- four of which are at home.

Timmy Chandler's return

While cynics won't pencil Chandler into the Americans' starting lineup until he takes the field for the cap-tying tilt at Honduras in February, there is now real reason to believe he's here to stay. If that's the case, the importance of what Chandler offers the team can't be overstated. He immediately solves several problems for Klinsmann's clan.

With world-class speed and responsible defending, the versatile German-American -- still just 22 -- can be deployed at left or right full back, or as a winger. He'll be able to fill in whenever left back Fabian Johnson is out and he's an option to replace midfielder Landon Donovan if Donovan does indeed step away from soccer. Long-term, he'll supplant right back Steve Cherundolo whenever the veteran finally hangs up his boots. Chandler instantly makes the Americans more athletic, dynamic and adds the skill and experience you'd expect from a guy starting in one of the world's top three leagues.

American success overseas

"I think there's a myth that's been created in America about the American player not getting respect in Europe," Howard told Insider earlier this year. "Look, if you go over to England and you're scoring goals left and right, they don't care where you come from. I think for a long time the American player wasn't good enough."

Clearly that's changed. Of the players who started for an under-strength U.S. side in Russia, seven are regulars in the Bundesliga, Premier League or Serie A. That would have been unheard of just a few weeks ago. All around, it's been a banner year for Yanks abroad. Clint Dempsey landed at Tottenham; Michael Bradley is a key cog for Roma; Geoff Cameron became an instant starter with Stoke; and Michael Parkhurst is playing in the Champions League. Even youngsters like Boyd (Rapid Vienna), Diserkud (Rosenborg) and Josh Gatt (Molde) are earning valuable experience in the Europa League.

"Scouts and coaches are more likely to take a risk on an American player now because of how well they've done." Howard said. "That's respect."

Notes

The U.S. has yet to schedule a friendly match for January, but that doesn't mean it won't. We hear there's still a possibility of one final tuneup for out-of-season players before the Hex begins Feb. 6.

With Carlos Bocanegra and Clarence Goodson on the wrong side of 30, it's no secret that the U.S. needs to build center back depth. It could happen early next year. Although Klinsmann's January camp will likely feature fewer players than usual, expect MLS defenders Matt Besler (25) and Omar Gonzalez (24) to score invites. On Tuesday, Sporting KC's Besler -- who got his first U.S. call-up last August -- was named the domestic league's defender of the year. Gonzalez, winner of the award in 2011, would have been on the Russia roster had his L.A. Galaxy not advanced in the playoffs. He'll play in his third career MLS Cup on Dec. 1.

Klinsmann won't be scouting Gonzalez in the finale, at least not personally. The German is scheduled to attend the Nike International Friendlies in Lakewood Ranch, Fla., where the U.S. U-17s will take on Brazil, Turkey and Portugal.

Skooby · Dec 1, 2012

Saints-Falcons: Another tough test for Saints' pass defense

QB RB OL = Saints

WR DL LB DB ST Coach = Falcons

Slow down Julio & Co.: Atlanta has some serious weaponry and is one of the elite passing teams in the NFL. Despite fighting injuries, Julio Jones racked up 147 receiving yards last week and is a matchup nightmare for every defense he faces, while Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White remain as steady as ever. Wide receivers, tight ends and quarterbacks have posted gigantic numbers against the Saints' defense -- and that could continue again in Week 13. The Falcons' receiving corps has dropped a lot of passes this year, though.

Slow down Graham: The Falcons have been outstanding slowing down opposing wide receivers, but RB Darren Sproles and especially TE Jimmy Graham could be a big problem for this Falcons' defense. Much of what New Orleans does with its passing game is predicated on generating favorable matchups for Graham, who is really a bad matchup for any defensive player in the NFL. Graham didn't have a big game last week, though, and has been plagued by a lot of drops this year. That could mean he is due for an explosion against the division-leading Falcons.

Eliminate the run: New Orleans' run defense, horrid for much of the season, has improved of late, and the Falcons' rushing attack offers very little to get excited about right now. Broderick Bunkley is the Saints' best run defender and New Orleans should be rather effective in clogging up the middle of the field. Clearly, Atlanta's Michael Turner is not an outside runner at this point of his career. In fact, he offers very little other than some straight-ahead power, which is why Atlanta would be wise to further incorporate Jacquizz Rodgers as the primary ball carrier.

Home QB: Matt Ryan threw for 353 yards in Week 12 with a high percentage of short, precise passing. He has been playing at a near-MVP level all season and clearly has an excellent understanding of this offense as a whole. Opponents have been lighting up the Saints' pass defense on blitzes, but Ryan has been much more effective when facing four or fewer pass-rushers. New Orleans didn't record a sack and Ryan was sacked only once last week. Ryan also is a very good play-action passer and the Falcons' offense executes play-action even when the running game isn't effective.

Away QB: Like Ryan, Drew Brees is playing tremendous football once again. He can be a risk-taker but has pinpoint accuracy while also being outstanding on third downs. The Falcons' pass defense has been much better when it brings additional pressure and can be diverse with its blitz packages. John Abraham remains one of the most effective pass-rushers in the league off the edge. The Saints' offensive line is decimated by injuries right now and Brees was sacked five times last week.

Key positional battle -- Saints' RBs vs. Falcons' LBs: Since Joe Vitt has taken over the head-coaching duties, New Orleans has really stressed a power running game with its diverse stable of running backs. Although New Orleans can throw a multitude of personnel groupings at the opponent, it is predominantly a 21 personnel offense (two running backs, one tight end), which has changed from years past. The offensive line has excelled under these circumstances, but the Saints could muster only 59 rushing yards last week with Sproles back in the mix. Run defense, especially against power schemes, has been a problem for Atlanta this season. As a result, the Falcons have gone to more of a heavier look with their defensive line, employing more defensive tackles at defensive end. But the Falcons' were great against Doug Martin last week and the return of LB Sean Weatherspoon had a lot to do with that success.

Featured player: Marques Colston is rarely mentioned among the elite wide receivers in football. That makes sense; he doesn't have great speed and clearly benefits quite a bit from those around him. But he also uses his great size extremely well and catches everything thrown his way. Colston is Brees' go-to guy and the big wideout almost always delivers. Opposite Colston is Lance Moore. As a third or fourth receiving option in the passing game, you can't do much better than Moore, who also obviously has great trust from Brees in any area of the field.

Film room nuggets: Although it has improved, the Saints just don't generate enough of a pass rush overall. Will Smith's play in particular has dropped off noticeably. Compounding matters is that New Orleans' coverage players are also subpar. That is a massive problem against Ryan and company this week. ... Sproles has returned, but it is interesting to see if this coaching staff (minus Sean Payton) can employ him as well as he was used in previous seasons. This is especially true as a receiving weapon, as Payton aligned him all over the formation to produce great matchups for this unique running back.

Prediction

Atlanta 35
New Orleans 34

The Falcons are in the driver's seat for home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. On a short week, the home team gets the win in a shootout.

Jaguars-Bills: Under new QB, Jags' offense shows signs of life

QB RB WR OL DL DB ST = Bills
LB Coach = Jaguars

Stop the run: No defense in the NFL has been as generous to opposing running backs as Buffalo's, but Jacksonville has struggled to run the football consistently. Maurice Jones-Drew is unlikely to suit up for this contest, which leaves Rashad Jennings and Jalen Parmele to split those duties -- if Parmele is healthy; he suffered a leg injury last week. Jennings has been underwhelming since Jones-Drew went down, but if he ever were going to have a big day, it would be against the Bills.

Playmakers are emerging for Jags: It wasn't long ago that Jacksonville's pass-catchers could have been classified the worst in the league. But that isn't the case anymore. Justin Blackmon isn't especially explosive, but he is strong with good ball skills and is excellent after the catch. He has come on since Chad Henne took over behind center. Cecil Shorts has three 100-yard games in his last five outings and has caught four touchdowns in his past six games. He is Jacksonville's big-play guy. These two wideouts complement each other quite well. Jacksonville will use a lot of bunch formations and often keep its receivers close to the formation. Tight ends are doing plenty of damage against the Bills, but wide receivers are not. That bodes well for Marcedes Lewis, who has quietly been a very effective receiver and run blocker for Jacksonville this year. However, the Jaguars' receivers have dropped a ton of passes this year.

Peripheral receivers need to step up: Steve Johnson is the Bills' top receiving threat, and he is coming off his best game of the season in Week 12. Buffalo's receivers have very few drops this season, but Buffalo doesn't have enough weaponry outside of Johnson. Scott Chandler has become a major part of this passing attack, especially near the goal line, but the Bills very rarely use multiple-tight end sets. Jacksonville's pass defense has allowed far too much production to pass-catchers this year. When the Jags are aggressive in press man coverage, they allow big plays, but when they play more off coverage, opposing passing games have had far too many easy completions.

Home QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick is very inconsistent. His accuracy comes and goes -- as does his penchant for making good decisions. His tools are very average, and the Bills were poor on third down last week. Fitzpatrick has excelled in passing off play-action this year, so look for Buffalo to feature that tactic.

Away QB: In Week 11, Henne came in for Blaine Gabbert and had a fantastic game against the Texans. He is now the Jaguars' starter the rest of the season and is much more willing to pull the trigger downfield than Gabbert was. Henne's accuracy has run very hot and cold throughout his career, but he is playing great now and is the definition of a pocket passer. He can make throws but isn't especially mobile outside the pocket.

Key positional battle -- Jaguars' OL vs. Bills' DL: Eugene Monroe has been excellent at left tackle, but the right tackle position has been a liability for much of the year for the Jaguars. That is a problem against Mario Williams, who had three sacks last week and has played great, especially as a run defender, since getting wrist surgery a few weeks ago. Quietly, Kyle Williams is playing as well as any defensive tackle in football right now. He is a menace to opposing blocking schemes. The Jaguars do use a lot of six-offensive linemen sets, which could be a wise tactic against Buffalo's excellent defensive line. Buffalo blitzes very infrequently, preferring to drop seven into coverage and have its high-priced front four rush the passer. Henne was sacked a whopping seven times in Week 12.

Featured player: C.J. Spiller rushed for more than 100 yards last week and is one of the most dangerous offensive players in the league. He averages an amazing 6.8 yards per carry. Jacksonville doesn't have a linebacker, and maybe not even a safety, who can keep up with Spiller one on one on a consistent basis when he's a receiver. He is now Buffalo's best offensive player. One could argue that the Bills are not using this dynamic weapon nearly enough.

Film room nuggets: Even though creating pressure has been very difficult for the Jaguars, Jacksonville blitzes less often than any team in the NFL and Fitzpatrick does his best work against the blitz. In turn, the Jaguars' front four absolutely needs to harass Fitzpatrick, although Buffalo's passing game is predicated on getting the ball out of his hands very quickly. It is an interesting conundrum for the Jaguars. ... The Bills, led by Andy Levitre and Cordy Glenn, are one of the better pass-protecting teams in the league, and the Jaguars had just one sack last week.

Prediction

Jacksonville 17
Buffalo 13

Jacksonville is coming off its second win of the season, and the Bills fell to the Colts in Week 12. The Jaguars might be playing better football right now -- with Henne at the helm -- than Buffalo and will pull off the road win in a low-scoring affair.

Seahawks-Bears: Lynch, Seahawks need to keep Cutler's offense off field

QB WR DL LB Coach = Bears
RB OL DB ST = Seahawks

Feature Lynch early and often: After watching Minnesota's Adrian Peterson gash the Bears for 108 yards on 18 carries in Week 12, look for a heavy dose of Seattle's Marshawn Lynch. Chicago has given up more than 100 yards rushing for five consecutive games after holding opponents to an average of 71 yards for the first six games. Coach Pete Carroll will want his Seahawks to sustain drives and use up a lot of clock as they try to keep the ball out of the hands of Jay Cutler and his explosive passing attack.

Pressure pocket with base defense: Chicago is one of the few teams that can pressure the pocket with its front four, letting it drop linebackers into coverage to help defend the pass. Defensive ends Julius Peppers and Israel Idonije and DT Henry Melton have accounted for 17 of the team's 30 sacks, and 10 more come from the backup defensive linemen. The more Chicago is able to devote maximum numbers to coverage, the more it can give Seattle QB Russell Wilson different looks in an attempt to confuse him into making mistakes.

Keep Cutler upright: The Bears lost guards Chris Spencer and Lance Louis to knee injuries last week and could be extremely thin on the offensive line. They already are the third-worst team in the NFL when it comes to giving up sacks, and they need to do everything possible to keep Cutler upright and healthy. Look for more double-tight end formations along with help from a running back as the Bears try to keep Seattle's pass rush at bay.

Home QB: Cutler returned to action last week against Minnesota and looked sharp, hitting on 23-of-31 passes with one touchdown and an interception. He is a pure passer who can hit very small windows when given the time, and is enough of an athlete to buy some time while keeping his eyes downfield. He is definitely a difference-maker who is an elite passer when he is on his game. The problem is he is not getting a lot of protection in the pocket and can force balls when he should just take the check-down pass or simply throw the ball away.

Away QB: Wilson has enjoyed an excellent rookie season and is doing a great job of managing this team while showing the ability to come up with clutch plays at opportune moments. He has steadily improved every part of his game as the season has progressed. He is a good decision-maker and has the athletic skills to be a threat as a runner. Although he is not quite a difference-maker, he definitely gives the Seahawks a chance to win by avoiding mistakes and playing smart football.

Key positional battle -- Seahawks' O-line vs. Bears' D-line: In a lot of ways, these two lines are similar in their approach. Both are extremely physical and like to set the pace for their respective units. Seattle loves to dominate up front with a powerful line that opens up holes for Lynch. Chicago relies on a powerful interior and athletic ends to limit run lanes and collapse the pocket.

Case for the underdog: The Seahawks need a big game from Lynch and their running game if they hope to come out ahead on the road. They have not been a great team away from the friendly confines of their home stadium and a strong ground game is the best recipe to correct the issue. Few teams can strike as quickly as Chicago with its Cutler-to-Brandon Marshall connection, and Seattle needs to do everything possible to keep these guys off the field.

Film room nuggets: Melton, an undersized interior lineman who is quick and agile, is an underappreciated member of Chicago's defense. He is second on the team in both sacks and tackles for a loss. He does a great job of penetrating and locating the level of the ball. ... Seattle WR Golden Tate has taken his game to a new level by running better routes and being extremely productive after the catch. ... For an elite receiver, Marshall drops his share of catchable passes. Even so, he gives the Bears their best shot at moving the chains and getting the ball into the end zone thanks to his rare combination of speed, size and athleticism.

Prediction

Chicago 24
Seattle 20

Seattle should struggle to move the ball consistently in the Windy City. Cutler has one of the league's quickest releases, which will limit the ability of a defense that favors zone coverage to make plays on the ball.

Skooby · Dec 1, 2012

Colts-Lions: Lions should prevail -- if they limit mistakes

QB RB WR OL DL DB = Lions
LB ST Coach = Colts

Stop the run first: The Lions have been inconsistent defending the run (123 yards per game) and were gashed for 205 yards (7.3 yards per attempt) in their Thanksgiving Day loss to Houston. The Colts don't field a ball carrier like Houston's Arian Foster, and making Indianapolis one-dimensional could be achieved out of Detroit's base 4-3 front. The Colts' offensive line deficiencies could be exposed this week as the Lions' defensive line matches up well in the trenches.

Throw to set up the run: The Colts have shown an improved ground attack in 2012 but their strong suit is picking up chunks of yards through the air. The Lions will be eager to play the run better this week by attacking the line of scrimmage with their front seven, which should open up the passing game (off play-action) on early downs. Look for Colts offensive coordinator Bruce Arians to keep Detroit guessing with a good dose of high-percentage passes on first down that will eventually set up the run as the game progresses.

Takeaways and the kicking game: Both clubs have been poor (Detroit is a minus-7; Indianapolis is a minus-14) in regards to turnovers. Neither team does a great job ball hawking while defending the pass (only 12 interceptions between them). The Lions have been exploited on special teams, while the Colts field a dangerous rookie returner in T.Y. Hilton. The hidden yards in the kicking game as well as the turnover battle will likely loom large in a battle of two evenly matched teams.

Home QB: Matthew Stafford had a breakout season in 2011 but his production is down in 2012. He is a big, strong-armed quarterback with good athleticism. He had huge numbers (441 yards passing and two touchdowns) in Week 12, but completed only 51 percent of his attempts. Stafford works best from the pocket but has shown the ability to improvise and make plays downfield. He can fit the ball into tight spaces but can rely on his arm strength too often rather than his reads. Look for Stafford to get back on track with better accuracy and decision-making versus the Colts.

Away QB: Andrew Luck did enough (240 yards, one touchdown) versus the Bills to get the win after a tough outing against the Patriots in Week 11. Luck is an excellent combination of size, strength and athleticism for the position. He can move the chains with his legs but works best from the pocket. He has great vision and instincts for a rookie signal-caller and shows poise beyond his years. He tends to hold the ball too long at times and may take some unnecessary sacks. He continues to progress in his rookie season, showing great vision to make all the throws in crucial situations. Luck is an outstanding, young quarterback who has showed great mental toughness and leadership.

Key positional battle -- Lions' receivers vs. Colts' secondary: Detroit fields excellent targets (Calvin Johnson, Tony Scheffler and Brandon Pettigrew to name a few) who are capable of stretching the seams. Indianapolis fields an experienced secondary that is capable, but it has been inconsistent versus some of the better passing attacks. Look for this battle to have a huge impact on the outcome.

Featured player: Hilton, a rookie wide receiver, had a breakout game with two touchdowns in Week 12. He has great quickness and speed as a young route runner. He has deceptive burst to get separation as a receiver or when he hits a crease returning punts on in the kicking game. He has shown the ability to run away from defenders (after the catch) when they appear to have the angle on him. Hilton may see more touches down the stretch as he is the Colts' most explosive offensive threat.

Film room nuggets: Johnson can't be covered with one defender. He has great length and strength to get separation on jump balls and is the Lions' main target in the red zone. Johnson draws double teams or bracket coverage much of the game. ... Linebacker Jerrell Freeman is the Colts' most active defender. He shows great instincts and range versus the run and pass while clearly making the most of his opportunity in Indianapolis.

Prediction

Detroit 27
Indianapolis 23

Both clubs have deficiencies that can be exploited. The Colts have overachieved, while the Lions have underachieved much of the season. If Detroit doesn't shoot itself in the foot with foolish penalties and turnovers, it should get the win at home.

Vikings-Packers: Packers, Rodgers look to bounce back from beatdown

QB WR LB DB ST Coach = Packers
RB OL DL = Vikings

Packers must tighten up protection: The success of the Green Bay offense is predicated on an explosive air assault. It was evident on Sunday night against the Giants that the loss of two offensive linemen was a glaring problem for the Packers' pass protection. Minnesota also has very capable pass-rushers who could derail Aaron Rodgers' ability to move the chains. New York sacked Rodgers five times and knocked him down several other times. Look for Packers coach Mike McCarthy to make some adjustments to get the passing attack back on track.

Control tempo on the ground: The Vikings have the most physical back in the league in Adrian Peterson. The Packers are banged up on defense and were gashed for 147 rushing yards by the Giants. Green Bay doesn't match up well in the trenches and could be exploited on the ground and in the air. Look for Minnesota offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave to pound the rock with a power rushing attack while stretching the edges with jet sweeps or reverses, especially if Percy Harvin (doubtful) returns.

Turnovers and special teams: The Packers were a minus-2 in turnovers against the Giants but are a solid plus-5 on the season. The Vikings, at minus-5, have been inconsistent creating turnovers and holding onto the football. Both clubs have solid special teams with dangerous returners, but Harvin's status is in question so the edge goes to Green Bay. Minnesota must play excellent in the kicking game and win the turnover battle to win this tough divisional road contest.

Home QB: Rodgers has adequate size with excellent athleticism and arm strength. He has been playing at a high level but is coming off a tough outing (14-of-25, 219 yards, one touchdown, one interception) while under duress against the Giants. He has great vision and instincts to find his second and third receiver in the passing game. He can fit the ball into tight spaces yet is judicious with his decision-making. He is excellent at moving the chains with his legs, showing speed out of the pocket to pick up chunks of yards. Rodgers is a prolific passer whom I expect to bounce back this week if the Packers can protect him in the pocket.

Away QB: Christian Ponder is a second-year signal-caller with adequate size and excellent athleticism and arm strength. He is coming off a marginal outing (22-of-43, 159 yards, one touchdown, one interception) against the Bears. He can fit the ball into tight spaces and make all the throws necessary. He is almost better improvising and delivering outside the tackle box with quickness and speed to elude effectively. Ponder can pull the ball down and move the chains with his legs. Prior to last week's game, he had made marked improvement with his decision-making and accuracy. Ponder must play better in hostile territory for the Vikings to have a chance.

Key positional battle -- Packers' WRs vs. Vikings' secondary The Packers field an excellent group of downfield targets in Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson and James Jones. Athletic tight end Jermichael Finley creates matchup problems on short and intermediate routes. Except for 14-year veteran Antoine Winfield, Minnesota fields a relatively inexperienced secondary. The Vikings have athletic and capable pass defenders but will have their toughest challenge to date shutting down a potentially explosive air assault.

Featured player: Jared Allen is the Vikings' most disruptive defender. He leads the Vikings' D in big plays (sacks, tackes for loss, forced fumbles, etc.) and is always around the ball. He was held at bay in last week's loss to the Bears but is looking forward to going against a banged-up Packers offensive line. His ability to disrupt both the run and pass forces opposing coordinators to slide protection in his direction.

Film room nuggets: Peterson comes downhill with a violent running style. When he drops his pads on defenders, they bounce off. It's impressive to see how many yards he gets after initial contact. ... McCarthy has clearly made an effort to get second-year player Cobb more touches, whether it's in the receiving game, on jet sweeps or in the return game.

Prediction

Green Bay 33
Minnesota 27

I could see Minnesota going into Green Bay and getting the upset, but I can't see the Packers laying an egg two weeks in a row. McCarthy makes some adjustments, and Green Bay outscores Minnesota.

Texans-Titans: Locker must steer clear of Watt

QB RB WR OL DL LB DB Coach = Texans
ST = Titans

Bring a lot of heat on defense: Although Titans QB Jake Locker is showing a lot of promise, he is still young and relatively inexperienced. Houston defensive coordinator Wade Phillips loves to bring the heat to force quarterbacks to get rid of the ball before they would like, and we can expect him to do everything possible to rattle Locker. Look for Phillips to move DE J.J. Watt, a dynamic pass-rusher, around in an attempt to make it more difficult for the Titans to double-team him in pass protection. Bringing a blitzing linebacker from the same area makes it even more difficult for opponents to focus on Watt.

Run at Watt: One of the best ways to neutralize a dynamic player like Watt is to run right at him. He loves to attack the line of scrimmage and get upfield, especially when he is trying to pressure the pocket. Look for the Titans to run a lot of off-tackle plays and screen passes to Watt's side in an attempt to force him to stay close to home and slow down his pass rush. If Tennessee can get RB Chris Johnson to the second level and into space, it has a chance to hit some big plays.

Get Foster untracked early: The Texans own one of the strongest run games in the NFL behind the strength and running skills of Arian Foster, who is the NFL's second-leading rusher. Their whole offensive philosophy is based on an effective ground game that opens things up for a play-action passing attack. With Tennessee struggling to stop the run consistently, we can be sure to see a heavy dose of Foster running behind one of the better offensive lines in the NFL.

Home QB: Locker is a very athletic quarterback with a strong arm, but he can be inconsistent with his accuracy. He is still developing as a pro QB and needs work on making quicker reads and decisions. He does do a good job of protecting the football even though he was intercepted twice in last week's loss to the Jaguars. One was a tipped pass and the second pick was on the last play of the game as he threw up a Hail Mary.

Away QB: Matt Schaub is a solid, frontline quarterback with excellent leadership skills. He is a quick decision-maker who can make all the throws necessary at this level. He is an excellent play-action passer who does a great job of selling the fake and getting the ball out quickly. He is more effective throwing from a solid pocket than when on the run, and has shown the ability to move his team down the field to score the winning touchdown late in the game.

Key positional battle -- Texans' DEs vs. Titans' OTs: Although the Texans are big on bringing a lot of pressure with blitzes and stunts, they get most of their production from their two defensive ends, Watt and Antonio Smith. Watt is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate and the Texans do a good job of moving him from side to side. Just how well Tennessee's offensive tackles are able to handle the pressure off the edge will have a lot to do with how this game turns out.

Featured player: For the Titans to have any chance to come out with a win, they need a dominant game from Johnson. He is their most explosive weapon on offense and has the ability to put up a quick-six on virtually any play.

Film room nuggets: When you watch Schaub on tape there is nothing that really jumps off the screen at you, but by the end of the game you realize he does pretty much everything well and has no glaring weaknesses. He has an excellent grasp of the offense and consistently gets his team in a position to be successful. ... Tennessee's OT Michael Roos and G Steve Hutchinson give the Titans a dynamic left side of the line. They are big, powerful technicians and a big reason the Titans are one of the better pass-blocking teams in the NFL.

Prediction

Houston 34
Tennessee 21

Houston has too many weapons on offense and does very little to hurt itself on the field. This should be closer than these teams' first meeting (38-14), but Houston will efficiently put up enough points to win.

Skooby · Dec 1, 2012

Panthers-Chiefs: Panthers need more from RB duo

QB RB WR DL Coach = Panthers
OL LB DB ST = Chiefs

Pound the rock: Carolina should be one of the more dominating running teams in the NFL with Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams sharing the load. In spite of having those two talented runners, the Panthers are led by quarterback Cam Newton with 446 rushing yards. Even though Stewart missed some time in Monday night's win over the Eagles, the Panthers need their backs to take some of the pressure off Newton and move the chains on the ground.

Contain Newton: When the Panthers get into third-and-short or goal-line situations they like to run the option with Newton often keeping the ball. NFL defensive linemen are not used to playing the option and generally jump on the initial belly fake, leaving Newton or the pitch wide open. Look for the Chiefs to assign a defender to spy on Newton to prevent him from keeping the ball and hitting on a big run.

Protect the football: Neither team is particularly strong when it comes to protecting the football, but the Chiefs have the league's worst turnover margin at minus-21. They lead the league in both fumbles (16) as well as interceptions (16), while being one of the weakest when it comes to creating turnovers with just seven interceptions and four forced fumbles. If Newton can play a clean game, the Panthers have a chance to come out with excellent field position and more opportunities.

Home QB: The Chiefs have been alternating between Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn, neither of whom has been very impressive. Quinn was the starter in last week's loss and will likely start this game. He is a good-sized quarterback with speed, athleticism and strength but has always been inconsistent with his accuracy. At best, he's a game-manager who relies on a strong ground game to make his play-action passing attack effective.

Away QB: Newton has had an uneven 2012. He has all the physical skills you could want but has made too many mistakes. In the Monday night win over the Eagles, Carolina's coaches reduced Newton's reads, which allowed him to make quicker decisions and improve his overall play.

Key positional battle -- Panthers' RBs vs. Chiefs' LBs: When you talk about the matchup between Carolina's running backs and Kansas City's linebackers, you have to include Newton as part of the equation. He is as much of a threat to run as Stewart or Williams. When the Panthers need a first down or crucial points they are just as productive on the ground as they are through the air. Kansas City's linebackers are going to have their hands full as they will be counted on to provide pressure by blitzing off the edge and contain the triple threat of Newton and his two running backs.

Featured player: These are two evenly matched teams, but Newton has the ability to turn the tide in Carolina's favor. Newton is a double threat in that he can kill a defense with his arm as well as with his legs. He has excellent open-field running skills and speed.

Film room nuggets: Williams hasn't been the same since missing a majority of the 2010 season with a foot injury. He is not running with the aggressive, downhill style he exhibited in 2008 and 2009. He needs to be more decisive and aggressive as a runner once he sees the seam in the Panthers' zone-blocking scheme. ... Panthers rookie cornerback Josh Norman is a big corner with downfield speed and good athleticism, but he needs to be more direct when in transition. He is not real quick to redirect or explosive when closing on the ball in front of him.

Prediction

Carolina 23
Kansas City 20

Both teams will run the ball effectively, but the Panthers have a better chance of attacking the field vertically with their passing game.

49ers-Rams: 49ers' defense should be able to contain Rams

QB = Rams
RB WR OL DL LB DB ST Coach = 49ers

Limit yards after contact: Running backs Steven Jackson and Daryl Richardson give the Rams a solid one-two punch out of the backfield. Jackson is still a workhorse back who can wear defenses down, and Richardson is an explosive runner who needs just a small crease to run through. San Francisco has one of the best tackling defenses in the NFL and needs to keep these guys in check by making the tackle before they can get to the open field. Against a solid Arizona defense, Jackson put up 139 yards for an average of 5.8 yards per carry, so we know he is still capable of putting up big numbers.

Protect the football: St. Louis has wasn't a great ball-hawking defense over the first half of the season, but the Rams came up with four interceptions against Arizona, two returned for touchdowns, while not turning the ball over themselves. Colin Kaepernick is a very talented quarterback but is willing to take more chances than Alex Smith and needs to know when it's OK to take those downfield shots and when not to. This Rams defense can bring a lot of heat with its front four, and pressure often translates to turnovers.

Stick with the run: Even though Kaepernick gives the 49ers more of a downfield passing attack, coach Jim Harbaugh hasn't changed his philosophy of fielding a strong running team that throws the ball off the play-action fake and does not take many chances. Look for a continued emphasis on Frank Gore gaining positive yards on early downs to try getting into third-and-short situations for the young quarterback.

Home QB: Sam Bradford is an extremely talented passer with prototypical dimensions for the position and a quick, lively and accurate arm. He can look absolutely dynamic throwing the ball at times and almost ordinary at other times. He is a pocket passer who needs time to go through his progressions and is not apt to extend many plays with his scrambling skills. He is a lot more effective when the ground game is working and defenses have to respect the possibility of the run.

Away QB: Smith has returned to health, but Harbaugh is sticking with Kaepernick. Smith was one of the league's leading quarterbacks with a rating of 104.1 before suffering a concussion in Week 10. While looking a bit inconsistent at times, Kaepernick has shown superior arm strength and maneuverability. Kaepernick is more apt to take some downfield shots. He can make incredible throws on deep corner routes and downfield post patterns but will also suffer through typical young quarterback mistakes.

Key positional battle -- 49ers' O-Line vs. Rams' D-line: San Francisco's offensive line is on the short list when it comes to discussions about the best line in football. It is extremely physical as well as being athletic and technically solid. The Rams have an up-and-coming defensive front that can pressure the pocket on passing downs and play the run on early downs. This will definitely be a battle in the trenches, and the outcome could definitely be determined up front.

Featured players: St. Louis needs a big game from its secondary. With cornerbacks Cortland Finnegan, a proven pro, and Janoris Jenkins, a rookie who came up with two pick-sixes last week, we know the Rams can defend the pass. But the secondary also needs to be good with its tackling in the open field, as San Francisco's offensive weapons are excellent open-field runners once they get the ball in their hands.

Film room nuggets: Rams safeties Quintin Mikell and Craig Dahl are better on run support than they are in coverage. They are smart football players who get quick reads but lack the speed and explosive quickness to be major factors as coverage personnel. ... Niners outside LB Aldon Smith is a dynamic edge rusher with rare acceleration and a natural skill for shedding blockers. He is a non-stop-effort type who made a good portion of his league-leading 16.5 sacks on effort.

Prediction

San Francisco 24
St. Louis 17

San Francisco's stifling defense should contain the Rams while their offense plays smart football and sustains time-consuming drives.

Patriots-Dolphins: Dolphins need breaks to upset Patriots

QB RB WR OL LB ST Coach = Patriots
DL DB = Dolphins

Stay balanced, Pats: New England is balanced this season with its offensive approach, which keeps opposing defenses guessing. Miami has been solid defending the run but inconsistent against the pass. Look for Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to continue with a good mixture of runs and high-percentage passes on early downs while utilizing a variety of formations to get the best matchups when he wants to air it out.

Miami needs to shorten game: With the Patriots being so explosive offensively, Miami needs to limit their opportunities. The Dolphins were able to pound the rock for 189 yards while moving the chains regularly with 253 yards through the air in their Week 12 win over the Seahawks. Look for offensive coordinator Mike Sherman to be creati ve while trying to put together long, methodical drives against an inconsistent New England defense.

Turnover battle, special teams: The Patriots are best in the league (plus-24) in the takeaway category, while the Dolphins rank 27th with a minus-10. Both clubs are solid in all phases of the kicking game. Miami has a chance to get the upset if it can force turnovers and possibly make a big play on special teams.

Home QB: Ryan Tannehill is a big, strong rookie with good athleticism. He is coming off a solid performance (18-for-26, 253 yards, one touchdown) in Week 12. He has a live arm and can power the football into tight windows. He is best from the pocket but can slide and improvise to extend the play. Tannehill had a tendency to force the ball into coverage early in the season, but his accuracy and decision-making have improved in recent weeks.

Away QB: Tom Brady is a future Hall of Famer with excellent size and arm strength. He is coming off another outstanding performance (323 yards, three touchdowns) in the Patriots' Week 12 beatdown of the Jets. Brady is an average athlete and rarely creates outside the tackle box. He can drive the football when he needs to and has great touch in the short passing game. He has outstanding vision and ability to find his second and third options. Even without favorite target Rob Gronkowski, he continues to successfully score in bunches with great timing and accuracy. Brady appears to be extremely focused on getting back to another Super Bowl.

Key positional battle -- Patriots' WRs vs. Dolphins' secondary: The Patriots field talented perimeter targets in Brandon Lloyd, Julian Edelman and Wes Welker, while athletic tight end Aaron Hernandez creates matchup problems in the seams. The Miami secondary is athletic and can be physical defending the run and the pass. There is tremendous pressure on the Dolphins' secondary against the most explosive offense in the league.

Featured player: Welker continues to be one of the most productive receivers in the league. He is a short, quick slot receiver with courage and concentration in traffic. He is an excellent route runner and gets separation with his instincts and quickness to find voids in zone coverages. He is the Patriots' most reliable chain mover and one to whom Brady looks in crucial situations. Welker has been one of the top pass-catchers in the NFL since coming to New England in 2007.

Film room nuggets: After coming from the CFL in 2009, Dolphins linebacker Cameron Wake took the NFL by storm. He had 14 sacks in 2010 and has 9.5 sacks this year. He has great first-step quickness off the edge as a pass-rusher. His explosiveness helps him gain leverage on larger counterparts. ... Patriots defensive tackle Vince Wilfork works with outstanding pad level and is a load defending the run on the inside. His initial punch and power can be disruptive, so he often draws many double teams to prevent penetration.

Prediction

New England 30
Miami 23

This should be a physical divisional battle. The Dolphins are coming off an impressive win and are at home, but the Patriots are too talented and have only one loss in the last two months. Bill Belichick and Brady are laser-focused and will get the win.

Skooby · Dec 1, 2012

Cardinals-Jets: New York has had extra time to prepare and should be ready

QB WR DL LB DB Coach = Cardinals
RB OL ST = Jets

Get the offense in a rhythm: The Jets' offense has had no identity much of the season. The Jets have shown the ability to have a physical ground attack at times but haven't been consistent, averaging 3.8 yards per attempt. Their air assault is even less impressive -- it's ranked 25th at 201 yards per contest. The Cardinals have been solid defensively, especially versus the pass, but were gashed on the ground in Week 12 versus the Rams, giving up 173 yards. Look for offensive coordinator Tony Sparano to get back to the basics with a power running attack and high-percentage passing game this week.

Get the young quarterback on track: Arizona needs to protect rookie QB Ryan Lindley with an effective ground attack and high-percentage passes. The Jets have been poor defending the run, yielding 143 yards per contest. They were embarrassed at home versus the Patriots in their last outing, yielding 475 total yards. Look for Ken Whisenhunt to get Lindley on track with a variety of running plays (power runs between the tackles) and easy completions (screens, shallow crossers and three-step drops) in the passing game.

Win in different ways: New York has looked dismal much of the season but can find unconventional ways to win against a poor Arizona club. The Jets have a clear advantage in the return game -- Joe McKnight and Jeremy Kerley are able to take it the distance whenever they touch the ball. New York has been less than impressive pressuring opposing quarterbacks, recording only 17 sacks thus far. But Arizona has been the worst in the league protecting the quarterback, giving up 46 sacks. Lindley had four interceptions in his first start. Look for an aggressive game plan from Rex Ryan to force the issue.

Home QB: Mark Sanchez has good size and athleticism. He is coming off of a solid game statistically in which he completed 72 percent of his passes for 301 yards and a touchdown. But he made a couple of boneheaded mistakes that overshadowed his efforts. He has good release quickness with good arm strength to make all the throws. He can improvise to extend the play outside the tackle box but is best when he has time in the pocket to scan the field. Sanchez is in his fourth year and has appeared to be pressing the entire season, completing only 55 percent of his passes and throwing almost as many interceptions as touchdown passes.

Away QB: The Cardinals have gone to a rookie signal-caller. Lindley has good size and arm strength and above-average athleticism. He had a nightmare of a debut with four interceptions, two returned for touchdowns. He appeared to stare down some receivers and may have predetermined where he was going with the ball early in the play. He didn't show great ability to improvise outside the tackle box and appears to be most comfortable operating in the pocket. Lindley has raw talent but will need an effective ground attack to move the chains consistently.

Key positional battle -- New York defensive line vs. Arizona offensive line: The Jets' defensive front seven has struggled against both the run and pass much of the season. The Cardinals' offensive line has struggled to establish the line of scrimmage; Arizona ranks 30th in rushing with 82 yards per contest and has allowed the most sacks in the league. As marginally as both of these units have played, it's likely this contest will be won in the trenches.

Featured player: Third-year linebacker Daryl Washington continues to be a dominant defender for the Cardinals. He is a bit undersized but has great athleticism and instincts defending both the run and pass. He has power as a tackler and works through trash well to get to the pile. He is disruptive, penetrating the line of scrimmage in the running game. He also has a knack blitzing the passer in pressure packages.

Film room nuggets:The Cardinals' leading receiver, Andre Roberts, has excellent quickness and speed to get separation. He has deceptive burst to eat up a defender's cushion and deceptive power (given his stature) to break tackles after the catch. ... The acquisition of LaRon Landry has brought additional physicality to the Jets' defense. He can deliver jolting hits filling the alley in run support and off the hash in the passing game.

Prediction

New York 24
Arizona 20

These teams are really struggling. Their records are the same, their QBs have been major concerns and their ground attacks have been inconsistent. Both clubs appear to be dysfunctional. But the Jets are at home and had extra time to prepare.

Bucs-Broncos: Controlling tempo vital for Buccaneers

QB LB DB ST Coach = Broncos
RB WR OL DL = Bucs

Tampa Bay must dominate the clock: The Buccaneers need a strong ground game with a controlled passing attack that allows them to dominate time of possession and limit Denver QB Peyton Manning's opportunities to come up with big plays. The Bucs can't afford to get into a high-scoring affair with the Broncos as they simply don't have the dynamic players on offense that Denver has.

Make Freeman uncomfortable in the pocket: Denver has one of the most dynamic pass-rush packages in the NFL. With 37 sacks on the season, the Broncos have the ability to force Buccaneers QB Josh Freeman into bad throws. Although Freeman has the quickness and athleticism to extend plays, he is much more effective when throwing from a solid pocket. Look for LB Von Miller and DE Elvis Dumervil to bring a lot of heat, especially if this defense is playing with a lead and Tampa Bay has to throw to catch up.

Running back by committee: Denver was dealt a major blow with the loss of all-everything RB Willis McGahee (knee). Not only do the Broncos need to replace his running skills, but McGahee is one of the better blockers in the league when it comes to blitz pickup and is a solid receiver out of the backfield. Look for a lot of situational substituting in Denver's backfield.

Home QB: Manning is a future Hall of Famer who is still a difference-maker in spite of his missing a year due to injury as well as his age. He doesn't have the arm strength of some quarterbacks, but he gets the ball to where it needs to be. He is one of the best when it comes to making pre-snap reads and getting his team into successful plays, and few quarterbacks are better at bringing a team back with fourth-quarter drives.

Away QB: Freeman is a rising star but is still on the inconsistent side. He can make all the throws you need to make at this level and can be extremely accurate when he is on his game. When the ground game is going strong, Freeman finds a lot of his success off the play-action fake. He has really improved on his ability to lead his receivers away from coverage; the Bucs' receivers are among the league's best when it comes to gaining yards after the catch. Where he needs to improve is in his ability to convert on third-and-long situations.

Key positional battle -- Broncos' receivers vs. Buccaneers' secondary: Denver is a team that, especially with the loss of McGahee, needs to throw to win. The Broncos' receivers are all good route runners and do a great job of catching the ball in traffic. Tampa Bay is one of the best teams in the NFL when it comes to ball-hawking and has a lot of guys who can play the ball, although the Bucs will be missing their top cover cornerback, Eric Wright, due to a suspension. Manning does not throw many interceptions and could have a big day against this decimated secondary.

Featured player: Doug Martin, who was held to 50 yards on 21 carries by the Atlanta Falcons in Week 12, needs to show up big in Denver. A strong ground game will not only slow down Denver's dynamic pass rush but will help to keep the ball out of the hands of Manning and his explosive offense.

Film room nuggets: Buccaneers LT Donald Penn has been an elite lineman for the past few years but doesn't get enough credit. He may lack prototypical dimensions for the position but is a great foot athlete with the ability to keep his pad level down and his weight over his feet. He rarely gets out of position and has an excellent sense of leverage. ... Buccaneers TE Dallas Clark has lost a step over the years and will struggle against quality man coverage, but he is still extremely effective when facing zone schemes. ... Denver may have the league's top speed rushers coming off the edge in Miller and Dumervil. These guys are explosive with their first steps and have developed a nice set of counter moves for when speed alone won't get the job done.

Prediction

Denver 27
Tampa Bay 17

The Buccaneers are one of the NFL's top teams when it comes to picking off passes, but they are the worst team when it comes to giving up passing yards. Against a quarterback like Manning, you can't count on many turnovers.

Browns-Raiders:Browns get chance for second straight win

QB WR Coach = Raiders
RB OL DL LB DB ST = Browns

Play some D: Oakland has allowed a whopping 169 points over the past four games, an astounding number. The Raiders are bad against the run and pass. Greg Little has improved dramatically with his hands and overall play from the beginning of the season, but it is Josh Gordon who has emerged as Cleveland's featured receiver. Gordon has excellent height and long speed to go along with an expanding route awareness. Cleveland will be run-first this week on the road, but Little and Gordon could also be quite productive.

Get back on track through air: Although the Raiders are littered with problems, they had been quite effective through the air of late. That is, before last week. Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey have great speed and are dangerous perimeter threats. One will draw Joe Haden in coverage, though, most likely Moore. Haden is playing as well as any cornerback in football. Brandon Myers has emerged as one of Carson Palmer's favorite targets, but we will rarely see multiple-tight end sets from Oakland, as it plays more 21 personnel (two backs, one tight end) than any offense in the league. Myers has 24 receptions and three touchdowns over his past four games. The Raiders also throw a lot of passes to their running backs, although drops have really plagued Oakland this season.

Get to Palmer: When the Browns do bring extra pass-rushers, they have been exceptional at getting to the quarterback, and Palmer isn't very mobile within or outside the pocket. Palmer is far more effective with a clean pocket. Cleveland has a favorable matchup on the Raiders' right side with Jabaal Sheard against Khalif Barnes, although Barnes has been an improvement over Willie Smith. Palmer was sacked four times last week and was under constant duress, but the Browns sacked Charlie Batch only once last week.

Home QB: Palmer struggled in Week 12, throwing for just 146 yards, and has thrown an interception in seven straight games. And when Palmer does throw interceptions, they often go back the other way for six points. But before Week 11, Palmer consistently posted big yardage numbers, although much of that production came when each game was out of reach. Cleveland has been quite stingy to opposing passing games and is one of the better defenses in the league in coverage, particularly when Haden is healthy.

Away QB: This is still one of the worst passing offenses in the league and Brandon Weeden was concussed last week, so Colt McCoy could get the start this week. Weeden is a work in progress, but he is a much better passer than McCoy, who struggles to make tough throws. The opposite of Cleveland, when the Raiders bring added pass-rush pressure, their sack efficiency rate is extremely poor. But they have been statistically better against the pass when they do blitz. Still, opposing quarterbacks are lighting up Oakland's defense this season and its secondary is quite deficient.

Key positional battle -- Raiders' RBs vs. Browns' run defense: Darren McFadden was inactive once again last week but could return to face the Browns. In his stead, Marcel Reece has been one of the Raiders' best players. Even if McFadden does play, Reece needs to be a major part of this offense, as he is a hard-charging runner who possesses rare skills in the passing game. Browns safety T.J. Ward is an excellent player vs. the run, but he also might be a good matchup vs. Reece in the passing game. Cleveland held Pittsburgh to a measly 49 rushing yards last week.

Featured player: Trent Richardson is averaging almost 31 touches per game over his past four games. He is a true workhorse back and could be in for a huge day against the hapless Raiders' defense. The Raiders feature a very big, four-man defensive line that is stout against the run. This defense allows far too many long runs once the running backs gets to the second or third level, but it is capable of controlling this game in the trenches. As a receiver, Richardson has a distinct advantage against the Raiders' linebackers, particularly Rolando McClain. The Bengals rushed for a whopping 221 yards against Oakland last week. Running backs are posting huge numbers against this defense.

Film room nuggets: Michael Huff was a cornerback prospect coming out of college, but he was quickly moved to free safety, a spot that has suited him well. But because of the Raiders' massive problems at corner, Huff switched positions a few weeks ago and has held up admirably. ... Joe Thomas is having yet another fantastic season for Cleveland. Better in protection than as a run blocker, Cleveland should have no qualms leaving Thomas alone on an island in protection all game long in Oakland. ... As effective as Myers has been as a receiver, he gets abused as a run blocker.

Prediction

Cleveland 16
Oakland 13

Despite averaging just 3.7 yards per offensive play, the Browns beat the Steelers last week while forcing eight turnovers. The reeling Raiders have lost four straight. Expect that streak to go to five in a low-scoring game.

Skooby · Dec 1, 2012

Bengals-Chargers: Chargers have a chance if they can protect Rivers

QB RB DL LB = Chargers
WR OL DB ST Coach = Bengals

Finish the game: San Diego has an explosive offense that can move the chains methodically, or score quickly with a downfield passing attack. What the Chargers have been missing is the killer instinct that allows them to finish games off when they hold a slim lead. Somebody on offense needs to step up and make a big play or two. Of their previous 11 games, the Chargers have scored a fourth-quarter touchdown in just four.

Roll coverage to Green: Cincinnati WR A.J. Green has been practically unstoppable this season as he is fourth in the league in receiving yards and eighth in the league in receptions. He has caught more touchdowns than any other wide receiver in the NFL and is the guy QB Andy Dalton looks to for the clutch catch. Expect Chargers defensive coordinator John Pagano to bracket Green with a safety over the top and a lot of two-deep zones.

Protect the football: While Chargers QB Philip Rivers has been one of the league's most dynamic passers over the past few years, he also has thrown almost as many interceptions (34) as he has touchdown passes (45) over the last two seasons. While the Bengals have been an upper-echelon team when it comes to not giving up a ton of yards through the air, they are not a great ball-hawking team. They currently rank 20th in interceptions with eight and Rivers does not want to give the Bengals good field position by throwing to the wrong team.

Home QB: Rivers has prototypical dimensions for the position with a live, strong arm that can fit the ball into small windows when needed. However, he has a tendency to hold the ball too long and often ends up taking more sacks than he should. He is a gutsy leader who will give his receivers a chance to finish their routes and take the hit just after his release and keeps coming back for more.

Away QB: Dalton is a solid starting quarterback who has improved during his second year behind center. He is an accurate thrower who tends to rely on timing and accuracy more than arm strength, and has enough quickness and agility to step up to avoid the rush. He has shown a tendency to get rattled when pressured in the pocket and can get a little skittish after a hit or two. Probably the biggest thing he needs work on is converting on third downs.

Key positional battle -- Chargers' O-Line vs. Bengals' D-line: Rivers has been sacked 32 times this year, the second-highest total among starting QBs. The Bengals' defense has registered 35 sacks, second best in the league. That does not bode well for Rivers' health. If San Diego's offensive line can keep Rivers upright and give him time to go through his progressions, he can be as accurate as any quarterback in the league.

Case for the underdog: If Rivers can come up big, San Diego has a good chance to avoid a four-game slide. He can carry this team on his arm when he has time in the pocket, and although he may not have the most explosive set of wide receivers, he can distribute the ball to a lot of different targets and has one of the league's best tight ends in Antonio Gates.

Film room nuggets: Rivers is still a very accurate passer when he has time in the pocket but he lacks a great internal clock. He is holding on to the ball too long and needs to be more willing to throw the ball away and take an incompletion when the pressure is getting heavy. ... Cincinnati LB Rey Maualuga is a tackling machine with a great nose for the ball, but he makes most of his plays in the second level. He is not an upfield attacker who fills with an explosive burst to make the tackle in the backfield. ... Once an elite cornerback, San Diego's Quentin Jammer has lost a lot of his cover skills. He often has to rely on holding and physical play to get the job done. He is looking choppy in transition and lacks a catch-up gear when receivers get behind him.

Prediction

San Diego 24
Cincinnati 23

San Diego will find a way to reverse a trend and pull this one out late. Rivers is due to come through with big numbers and will make the difference.

Steelers-Ravens: Pittsburgh must hang on to the ball to beat the Ravens

QB RB OL ST = Ravens
WR DL LB DB Coach = Steelers

Spread the Steelers out: Pittsburgh's strong suit is still defense, which kept the Steelers in the game with an excellent effort versus Cleveland in Week 12. The Ravens were fortunate to beat the Steelers with a sub-par effort on offense in Week 11. Baltimore has enough talent and experience on offense to keep a physical Pittsburgh defense guessing. Look for offensive coordinator Cam Cameron to be more creative with formations to spread the Steelers' defense out to get the best matchups in both the passing and running games.

Play Steeler football: Ben Roethlisberger is out, so Pittsburgh needs to be more physical than Baltimore on both sides of the ball to compensate. Obviously, fumbling the football can't be tolerated, but pounding the rock versus a somewhat average Baltimore defense should be the main focus in Week 13. Stopping Ray Rice and rushing the football is the approach Steelers coach Mike Tomlin probably will take with their backs against the wall.

Turnover battle and special teams: With eight turnovers, the Steelers played their worst game in many years against Cleveland in Week 12. Pittsburgh in is a minus-10, while Baltimore is a plus-12 in the takeaway category. Both teams have solid punters, kickers and coverage units, but Ravens return specialist Jacoby Jones has been dangerous with three returns for TDs in 2012. Pittsburgh is wounded and will have no chance to get the upset in this divisional rivalry if these trends continue.

Home QB: Joe Flacco is a big, strong, athletic quarterback who is coming off a 355-yard, one-TD game against the Chargers after a lackluster performance against the Steelers in Week 11. He has been more patient in the pocket in 2012 and does a nice job of taking what the defense gives him. Flacco has a powerful arm and can fit the ball into tight spaces. He is most comfortable in the pocket but can pull the ball down and extend the play outside the tackle box. The Steelers will focus on stopping the Ravens' running game and probably put the game in Flacco's hands.

Away QB: Rib injuries to Roethlisberger and Byron Leftwich put Charlie Batch under center. Batch is a 15-year veteran who played in four games in 2011. He is coming off a three-INT, 199-yard outing against the Browns. He has adequate size, athleticism and arm strength but is clearly playing with diminishing skills. He is limited to improvise outside the tackle box and operates best from the pocket. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley probably will force feed the ground game and try to shorten the game without putting too much on Batch.

Key positional battle -- Ravens' WRs vs. Steelers' secondary: Baltimore has a formidable group of wideouts in Torrey Smith, Jones and Anquan Boldin, as well as two athletic tight ends in Ed dikkson and Dennis Pitta. All of these players can stretch deep zones and can create matchup problems for any NFL secondary. Even with S Troy Polamalu out because of injury, the Pittsburgh secondary continues to play at a high level. The Steelers are very athletic and physical defending both the run and pass. If the front seven can shut down Rice and the running game, the game will come down to this positional battle downfield.

Featured player: Baltimore's Smith is coming off another big game with seven catches for 144 yards in the Ravens' road victory over the Chargers. Smith has good size with excellent athleticism and deceptive strength for the position. He gets a great initial push off the line of scrimmage with speed to stretch the field. He has developed as a route runner and shows reliable hands in traffic. He's the Ravens' most explosive offensive threat and has quickly become a player for whom opposing coordinators have to game plan.

Film room nuggets: This is Jonathan Dwyer's type of game. The Steelers were a running game by committee in Week 12, but this is the kind of battle that a physical back like Dwyer was made for. He is a short, powerfully built ball carrier with excellent agility and vision between the tackles. His running style is what Pittsburgh needs to set the tempo. ... Jones shows explosive speed and quickness that is evident not only as a receiver but also in the kicking game. He is a game-changer with great burst to hit a crease.

Prediction

Baltimore 20
Pittsburgh 17

Steelers-Ravens games are usually close and decided late. The Steelers have their backs against the wall, but the Ravens should prevail.

Eagles-Cowboys: Cowboys will try to take away Eagles' run game

QB WR OL DL LB DB ST = Cowboys
RB Coach = Eagles

Dallas must stop the run: Even with the Eagles' featured back, LeSean McCoy, out with an injury, Philadelphia was able to rack up 204 yards (7.8 yards per attempt) on the ground versus the Panthers in Week 12. The Eagles' passing attack is somewhat anemic and can't move the chains consistently. Look for Cowboys defensive coordinator Rob Ryan to design a game plan (eight-man fronts, zone run blitzes, stunts and twists) to force Philadelphia rookie quarterback Nick Foles to score points.

More balance on offense: The Cowboys appear to abandon the run too quickly (62 passing attempts in Week 12). DeMarco Murray (sprained foot) is set to return, and Dallas' offensive line matches up well in the trenches and should provide running room versus an inconsistent Eagles front seven. Look for Cowboys coach Jason Garrett to stay with a more balanced approach on early downs this week.

Turnover battle and special teams: Both clubs are poor at creating turnovers and taking care of the football. Dallas is minus-11 and Philadelphia is minus-17 in turnover ratio. Both teams have solid punters and kickers, but Dallas has the edge in the return game. Both teams have struggled in these two phases, and the club that can clean up these areas will likely win this divisional battle.

Home QB: Tony Romo has average size with good arm strength and athleticism. He is coming off another up-and-down performance (441 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions) in the Week 12 loss to the Redskins. Romo has had a roller-coaster season thus far, which mirrors what he has done throughout his career. He has great vision and often finds his second and third options in the passing game. He is great at improvising and extending the play outside the tackle box. Romo has a gunslinger mentality in the passing game and is a usually a boom-or-bust performer.

Away QB: Foles is a big, strong-armed quarterback with above-average athleticism. He is limited to improvise outside the tackle box and operates best in the pocket. He can power the ball into tight windows but appears to be inconsistent with his timing. Eagles coach Andy Reid appeared to be a bit cautious with his play calling in Week 12 (only 21 passing attempts), but Foles made marked improvement with his accuracy from Week 11 (46 percent) to Week 12 (76 percent). Foles can make all the throws but clearly needs the aid of a strong ground attack to move the chains consistently.

Key positional battle -- Cowboys' WRs vs. Eagles' secondary: Dallas' perimeter targets (Dez Bryant, Miles Austin and Kevin Ogletree) can stretch deep zones and are effective intermediate route runners, while TE Jason Witten is the Cowboys' most reliable chain mover. Philadelphia's secondary was poor versus the Panthers in Week 12 and has been exploited much of the season. Romo is capable of putting up huge numbers in the passing game if the Eagles' secondary doesn't tighten its coverage this week.

Featured player: Eagles rookie running back Bryce Brown made the most of his opportunity (178 yards at 9.4 yards per carry) versus the Panthers. He is an excellent combination of size, strength and athleticism. Brown showed great vision, burst and speed to pick up chunks of yards. He has power to break tackles and move the pile for extra yards. He is a reliable receiver out of the backfield. Brown is a very talented young back who had problems securing the football. If he cleans that part of his game, Brown will be a player who can make a huge impact down the stretch.

Film room nuggets: Bryant is one of the most gifted perimeter targets in the game, but he doesn't always appear to be disciplined in his routes. If he's focused, Bryant can be a difference-maker down the stretch. ... The Eagles acquired LB DeMeco Ryans in March and he has been the defense's most active player. His instincts, athleticism, strength and toughness are evident; he's a glaring bright spot on a marginal Philadelphia defense.

Prediction

Dallas 27
Philadelphia 17

The Cowboys have the talent to blow teams out or lay an egg at any time. Considering Philadelphia's injury situation and how poorly it has played in several areas, Dallas should finally get an easy win.

Skooby · Dec 1, 2012

Giants-Redskins: Giants' D presents new challenges for RG3

QB WR OL DL DB Coach = Giants
RB LB ST = Redskins

Is the Giants' pass rush finally back? We saw a revival of the NASCAR pass rush versus the Packers, with four athletic guys rushing and seven dropping into coverage. For example, OLB Mathias Kiwanuka played a lot at DT, where he is an athletic mismatch for most offensive linemen. And when they get opposing offenses in pass situations, the Giants can tee it up. When the pass rush is going well, it protects the back end of this pass defense because the DBs do not have to hold their coverages too long. The Giants can exploit this Redskins O-line, but they must also set the edge, show good gap discipline and not let Robert Griffin III get outside on scrambles.

Which run offense can control the flow? Both teams are at their best when they are physical and control the clock with the run game, which can really set up the passing game and open things up for two good play-action packages. The Giants will use veteran Ahmad Bradshaw as the workhorse. Because of the injury to Andre Brown, rookie David Wilson becomes the change-of-pace runner -- if he can pass-block. Washington has a no-nonsense, between-the-tackles running game with Alfred Morris. Neither rushing attacks tricks you, but stopping each will be a challenge.

How will RG3 attack the Giants' defense? The Giants went back to their big nickel defense versus Green Bay with three safeties and two linebackers. They sat those safeties back in coverage to take away Aaron Rodgers' deep ball, and they will likely do the same against RG3. Griffin III has been great on the deep ball, especially when he sees the blitz and can find good matchups, but he will likely have to adjust in this game. A shorter passing game with screens, slants, draws and play-action bootlegs could be the Redskins' plan of attack.

Home QB: Griffin III continues to play at a very high level, and you would never guess he is a rookie. We take his athleticism for granted, but what is really starting to stand out on film is the accuracy of his deep ball as well as his increasing ability to read his progressions. No stage is too big for him, he is in total control of the huddle and he excels in the play-action/bootleg package. What really gets your attention is how good he is at making plays when pressured. Most rookies struggle versus blitz packages, but RG3 thrives when defenses bring extra pressure. He is terrific at identifying man-to-man matchups and making the defense pay for taking chances. Versus the Giants he will mostly see a four-man pass rush, which will be interesting to watch.

Away QB: After some shaky outings, Eli Manning was back in form versus Green Bay. He finally had a run game, which gave the Giants balance and a play-action package, his receivers finally got some separation versus tight coverage, pass protection was better and he was finally able to throw the deep ball -- something defenses had taken away previously. It also helps that his offensive weapons are getting healthy at the right time and the coaching staff did a good job of identifying weaknesses during the bye week.

Key positional battle -- Manning vs. Washington safeties Reed Doughty and Madieu Williams: Washington's defense gives up too many big passing plays, especially between the hashes, and its problems in coverage at safety continue to be a real concern. The season-ending loss of Brandon Meriweather, who was playing surprisingly well, has really affected the playmaking abilities on the back end of this defense. Now the Redskins must deal with Manning, who was terrific at throwing inside versus Green Bay. Giants WR Victor Cruz is especially effective working the middle of the field out of the slot, and athletically these safeties don't match up. Look for Manning to really exploit them.

Featured players: The Giants rushed for 147 yards last week, and a lot of those carries were on the left side with LT Will Beatty and LG Kevin Boothe paving the way. Neither is a gifted athlete, but both are solid players who don't make a lot of mistakes. With Washington's best healthy pass-rusher, LB Ryan Kerrigan, usually on the other side, Beatty and Boothe should be able to hold their own in pass protection this week.

Film-room nuggets: The Giants' coaches did a nice job of play calling on both sides of the ball against Green Bay. It seems like they really self-scouted well during the bye, and they used screen plays, fake reverses and a good run/pass balance on offense. On defense, we saw creative personnel packages with multiple groupings in the back seven to keep Rodgers off balance. The Redskins may use some inside blitzes, attacking the A gaps with their ILBs, and that is the kind of pressure that immobile QBs like Manning do not want to see. Although the Giants have not consistently played up to expectations on defense, their ability to force turnovers has kept them in some games.

Prediction

New York 24
Washington 21

Which Giants team shows up? Will they have a sense of urgency like we saw last week versus Green Bay? This game could easily come down to the Giants' defensive front four. Expect veteran pride on MNF to be the difference.

Skooby · Dec 15, 2012

Bengals-Eagles: Eagles need RB Brown to bounce back

QB WR OL DL DB Coach = Bengals
RB LB ST = Eagles

Be run-first: It is very un-Andy Reid like, but the Eagles must be a run-first team. Before last week, rookie Bryce Brown had been terrific filling in for LeSean McCoy. The Eagles also throw to their running backs quite a bit. Despite all Brown's talent, ball security is a major problem for him. A further problem is that Cincinnati has been great at slowing down opposing running backs. Cincinnati limited the Cowboys to a measly 49 rushing yards and a 2-yard average last week, while the Eagles mustered only 29 yards on the ground last week on 16 carries. Brown had just 12 total yards.

Just keep feeding Green: Even though he had his worst game of the season last week, Bengals WR A.J. Green is an unstoppable force. Green is particularly lethal outside the numbers and deep downfield, as well as in the red zone. If Green gets a large dose of Nnamdi Asomugha one-on-one, the Bengals might put up a lot of points through the air. Once a great corner, Asomugha has lost at least a step and can no longer recover when beaten against faster wideouts like Green, who just eats up large chunks of ground with each long fluid stride. Asomugha's ball skills are also questionable and few wideouts can contort or go up and get the football like Green, even with defenders all around him. Maybe the weakest position on Philadelphia's team right now is safety. Look for Cincinnati to do everything possible to get Green or Jermaine Gresham in one-on-one matchups with the Eagles' safety tandem. The Eagles have consistently had communication errors in their secondary resulting in receivers running free deep downfield.

Get to Dalton: Bengals QB Andy Dalton has done much better against four or fewer rushers rather than the blitz, but the Eagles' front four is designed to get pressure without blitzing. And there is plenty of talent in that group. Dalton was sacked five times in Week 14, and although he operates behind a very solid offensive line, the Eagles' upfield front should provide plenty of problems in protection.

Home QB: Nick Foles was very impressive last week, throwing for 381 yards against a very poor Buccaneers pass defense with Jason Avant and Jeremy Maclin both going over 100 yards receiving. It was Foles' best day as a pro. Foles moves pretty well for a quarterback with his dimensions and has a strong arm, but he is obviously very inexperienced and the game can move too fast for him at times at this stage of his development. This is a tough matchup for Foles, as the Bengals are extremely well coached on defense and have been great at limiting quarterback production.

Away QB: Dalton isn't overly gifted, but he is smart and understands what to do with the football. To excel, he must be a timing and rhythm passer while displaying excellent accuracy -- which he often does.

Key positional battle -- Bengals RBs vs. Eagles LBs: Not only are quarterbacks putting up big numbers against the Eagles, but their run defense is quite poor, as well. BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a methodical, plodding back who needs a lot of volume to be successful, but that should be a fine formula for this matchup.

Featured player: Cincinnati's pass defense hasn't been as good when it brings extra pressure, but its defensive line excels at getting to the quarterback. The best player in that group is Geno Atkins, who is playing as well as just about any defensive player in the NFL. With Atkins providing consistent interior pressure, this is one of the best pass-rushing teams in the league. Carlos Dunlap and Michael Johnson are a formidable pair of defensive ends attacking the quarterback. The Eagles' offensive line is in shambles, especially in protection, and Foles was sacked six times last week. Foles has a lot of work to do overall, but a very encouraging sign from the rookie is that he doesn't fear or perceive the rush and isn't afraid with rushers bearing down on him.

Film room nuggets: The Bengals now have a great offensive line that is superb at offensive tackle, and Kevin Zeitler has taken the league by storm at guard. Although it is a very good, physical run-blocking line, it is fantastic in protection. Since the release of Jason Babin, Eagles DE Brandon Graham has looked very good and is apparently finally in good health. Babin's release has also made more snaps available for Vinny Curry and Phillip Hunt, both of whom have looked great when given the opportunity. Cullen Jenkins also remains a formidable interior pass-rusher.

Prediction
Cincinnati 24
Philadelphia 20

The Eagles do have talent and maybe their quarterback is taking a big step forward, but Cincinnati still goes on the road on a very short week and wins to keep itself in the thick of the AFC wild-card race.

Giants-Falcons: Falcons provide tough road test for defending champion Giants

QB RB OL DL ST Coach = Giants
WR LB DB = Falcons

Rattle Ryan: Falcons QB Matt Ryan is better against a standard pass rush. While New York will mix in blitzes, its defense is designed to generate pressure from its talented defensive line, which has been somewhat disappointing this season. Still, Ryan has been sacked a high percentage of the time versus blitzes, so the Giants would be wise to mix in additional pass-rushers. New York sacked Drew Brees only once last week and will have to apply more pressure to win this difficult road matchup.

Exploit New York's secondary: Drops have been a problem for Julio Jones this season, but he is still the most dangerous weapon on the Falcons' offense. The Giants do not have an answer for him or Roddy White, who is consistently great. Tony Gonzalez is playing at a very high level still and is one of the most targeted tight ends in the league. The Giants will probably utilize a lot of their Big Nickel package and have been very tough on opposing tight ends. Still, the Giants are not all that strong in coverage overall with their back seven.

Get something going on ground: As evidenced by their paltry 35 rushing yards last week, the Falcons have very little running game on which to lean. The Giants, meanwhile, have been stingy to opposing running backs. Despite a poor running game, Atlanta's first-down offense is one of the best in the league, which keeps it out of a lot of unfavorable down-and-distance situations. In turn, the Falcons have thrived on third downs as well. While Michael Turner offers very little as a receiver, Ryan targets Jacquizz Rodgers quite a bit when he is in the game. And Rodgers' role overall has deservedly grown as the season progressed. Ryan has become an excellent play-action passer, and the Falcons have been effective with this tactic even when their ground game is less than effective.

Home QB: Ryan threw for 342 yards last week in a losing effort. After starting the season red hot, Ryan has come back to Earth a bit of late. But Ryan is a smart and extremely efficient signal-caller who ranks among the best in the NFL. New York is very opportunistic on defense, having caused a whopping 34 turnovers. Ryan and his teammates must be aware and value the football.

Away QB: This is a tough matchup for Eli Manning, as the Falcons have been excellent at limiting quarterback production this year. Surprisingly, Manning's numbers when throwing outside the numbers are very unimpressive, so look for the Falcons to flood the middle of the field with their coverage schemes. Manning and this offense overall have also really struggled in the red zone. John Abraham remains one of the league's best edge pass-rushers, but the Giants' protection has been excellent this season. Manning possesses excellent pocket presence and movement while maintaining his focus downfield. He wasn't sacked in Week 14, but the Falcons' pass defense has been excellent when bringing added pressure.

Key positional battle -- Giants' RBs vs. Falcons' LBs: Despite the constant battling of injuries, Ahmad Bradshaw remains a very solid all-around contributor for New York. Already an exceptional return man, David Wilson had a coming out of sorts last week as a running back and adds another explosive element to New York's attack. Wilson also is a superb kickoff return man, and the Giants amassed an amazing number of return yards last week. Their edge in special teams could be crucial in what should be a very competitive game this week. New York is one of the few teams in the league that relies on a true blocking fullback, and it employs a lot of 21 Personnel as a result. The Giants also rarely use play-action. Stephen Nicholas and especially Sean Weatherspoon are very rangy and match up well against the Giants' running backs and tight ends in coverage, but the Panthers gashed this run defense for 195 yards in Week 14.

Featured players: Hakeem Nicks and Manning have been just a bit off with connecting on big plays. Health has been a problem for Nicks all season, so predicting what we will see from him in this contest is very difficult. But New York also has Victor Cruz, who could give Atlanta's secondary fits. The Giants are not bashful about sending Cruz deep when he aligns in the slot. While he has been fighting injury of late, Asante Samuel remains a very dangerous ball hawk who Manning must be cautious of.

Film room nuggets: The Falcons are extremely well coached on defense and throw a lot at their opponent. Their safeties, particularly William Moore (who was inactive last week), can align all over the field. Jonathan Babineaux often lines up at defensive end and Kroy Biermann has become a jack-of-all-trades who Atlanta moves all over the defense. Also, this deep defensive line is extremely active and potent with twists, slants and stunts.

Prediction
New York 35
Atlanta 30

The Giants scored 52 points last week and caused four turnovers against the Saints, but also allowed 487 total yards. Expect a lot of points in this game. Atlanta is a tough place to play, but the defending champs know how to win on the road in December.

Packers-Bears: Can Bears exploit undermanned Packers D?
By Ken Moll

QB WR OL ST Coach = Packers
RB DL LB DB = Bears

Continue with balance offensively: The Packers have run the ball (108 yards per game) better in 2012. The Bears haven't been as stout defending the run, especially in recent weeks. Chicago linebacker Brian Urlacher is still out with a hamstring injury, which further weakens the team's ability to defend the run. Look for Packers coach Mike McCarthy to continue with a more balanced approach (good mixture of runs and high-percentage passes on early downs) in this matchup.

Control tempo on the ground: The Packers are missing some key defenders and have been exploited on the ground. The Bears are at their best when they can mount an effective ground attack. Matt Forte and Michael Bush are an excellent one-two punch that could wear down an undermanned Green Bay defense. Look for offensive coordinator Mike Tice to pound the rock as he tries to set the tempo and limit opportunities for an explosive Packers offense.

Turnovers and special teams: Both teams have been successful (Chicago is plus-13, Green Bay is plus-7) regarding turnover margins. A big reason for the Bears' success in the first half of the season was the ability to not only create turnovers but also score (fumbles and interception returns) on defense. The kicking-game advantage is really a toss-up with capable punters, place-kickers, returners and coverage units on both teams. With the weather this time of year in the Windy City likely to be a factor, both of these phases should come into play.

Home QB: Jay Cutler was knocked out of the Week 14 game against the Vikings with a neck injury. He has had a solid season, but continues to be a streaky passer. He has excellent arm strength and can fit the ball into small windows, which can be a positive and a negative for him. Cutler is expected to play this week and could put up some big numbers versus a banged-up Packers secondary if given time to scan the field.

Away QB: Aaron Rodgers continues to play at a high level. He has good size with excellent arm strength and athleticism. He has great vision and instincts to find his second and third receiver in the passing game. He can fit the ball into tight spaces yet is judicious with his decision-making. He is excellent at moving the chains with his legs, showing speed out of the pocket to pick up chunks of yards. Rodgers continues to be one of the best signal-callers in the league (he's hitting 67 percent of his passes), but the Bears' secondary can be very opportunistic (21 interceptions, seven returned for touchdowns). Rodgers will need to be smart when taking shots downfield.

Key positional battle -- Packers' WRs vs. Bears' secondary: Green Bay continues to have one of the most dangerous air attacks in the league if Rodgers has time to scan the field. The Packers field an excellent group of targets (Randall Cobb, James Jones and Greg Jennings) along with an athletic tight end (Jermichael Finley) who creates matchup problems on short and intermediate routes. Bears CB Tim Jennings is out with a shoulder injury, but Chicago still fields a formidable group of defenders in the back end. This should be a great battle when Rodgers decides to air it out.

Case for the underdog: The Packers are the clear favorite in this crucial divisional matchup, but they're missing several key players on defense. If Chicago can get its running game on track and give Cutler time in the pocket, the Bears could get a much-needed win.

Film room nuggets: Cobb is one of the most versatile players in the league. His explosive speed, quickness and instincts are evident as a target in the passing game, but those traits also show up on jet sweeps and as a returner in the kicking game. ... Cornerback Charles Tillman has been a force as the Bears' most active secondary defender. His physicality, instincts, energy and leadership are always evident when he steps on the field.

Prediction
Green Bay 26
Chicago 24

The Packers are on a roll, even though they haven't looked great, while the Bears have stumbled in recent weeks. Chicago has its back against the wall but seems to have lost its mojo.

Jplaya2023 · Dec 15, 2012

Skooby, can you post Niners pats, broncoes ravens please

Skooby · Dec 15, 2012

Redskins-Browns: Will RG III play? Washington could survive if he doesn't

QB RB WR LB Coach = Redskins
OL DL DB ST = Browns

Get Richardson his touches: The Cleveland offense is built around Trent Richardson. He is its leading rusher and receiver in 2012. The Redskins have been exploited most often through the air, having given up 27 TDs and an average of 290 yards per game. They also gave up 186 yards on the ground against the Ravens in Week 14. Look for Cleveland offensive coordinator Brad Childress to get rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden going with high-percentage passes and a good dose of Richardson between the tackles.

Continue to run the football: The Redskins lead the league in rushing at 167.5 yards per game while the Browns give up 121 yards per game. Even if they don't have the services of a mobile Robert Griffin III, Washington fields a very capable ball carrier in Alfred Morris, who has more than 1,200 yards. Regardless of which rookie quarterback is under center, look for Washington offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan to stick with high-percentage passes and a physical ground assault to move the chains.

Turnover battle and special teams: Both clubs have taken advantage of turnovers -- Washington is plus-11 while Cleveland is plus-8. Both teams were a plus-1 in their impressive wins in Week 14. Both clubs have excellent place-kickers with solid punters and coverage units, but Cleveland has a distinct advantage in the return game with Joshua Cribbs and Travis Benjamin handling those duties. The team that takes advantage of one or both of these phases of the game will get the win.

Home QB: Brandon Weeden is an older NFL rookie as he played minor league baseball for four seasons prior to attending Oklahoma State in 2007. He is coming off a modest outing in Week 14 -- completing 57 percent of his passes but no TDs or INTs -- and will need to up his game versus a hot Redskins club. Weeden is a big, strong, athletic quarterback who can power the football into tight spaces. He operates best in the pocket but is athletic enough to get on the edges to deliver the ball downfield. Weeden has shown positive flashes in recent weeks and could have bigger numbers against a secondary that has been exploited often in 2012.

Away QB: Kirk Cousins has adequate size with good athleticism and arm strength. He has a limited sample size to his appropriately judge his ability as an NFL quarterback, but has played well in relief for RG III on two different occasions. He can make all the throws but appears to lack elite arm strength. He can slide and improvise out of the pocket but would not be effective running the option package that the Redskins have used with RG III. Cousins is a rookie and clearly the offensive game plan will need to be adjusted, but he appears to have enough of a grasp along with enough talent to execute much of the play book.

Key positional battle -- Cleveland O-line vs. Washington D-line: Cleveland fields a very solid offensive line anchored by Joe Thomas at left tackle. The Browns have given up only 24 sacks. They have protected their rookie quarterback while opening holes for their talented rookie running back. Washington has lost some of its better pass rushers to injury and has generated only 23 sacks thus far. The Skins can be stingy defending the run, however.

Featured player: Richardson is a powerfully built back with excellent vision and inline running skills. He's having a solid rookie season and the Cleveland offense is built around him. He is a punishing runner who moves the pile on contact. He is a solid receiver as well as blocker in blitz pick-up. Richardson hasn't put up gaudy numbers, but opposing coordinators game plan to stop him first.

Film room nuggets: Morris has been one of the most consistent backs in the league in 2012. His downhill running style attacks the line of scrimmage with power. He gives Washington production every week on the ground. ... Benjamin is undersized but has great speed and quickness. He hasn't had many opportunities, but his ability to hit a crease and distort angles was evident in Week 14.

Prediction
Washington 24
Cleveland 23

The Browns have won three in a row, while Washington has won four in a row versus a much tougher schedule. The Skins find a way to get a win and stay alive for postseason contention.

Vikings-Rams: For Rams, it's all about trying to limit Peterson's damage

QB WR DL DB Coach = Rams
RB OL LB ST = Vikings

Keep riding Peterson:Teams know Adrian Peterson is getting the football, and still he averages 6 yards per carry. It would be great for the Vikings to get their struggling quarterback on track with high-percentage passes and play-action bootlegs, but they need to keep pounding the rock with the best back in the league. The Rams were excellent defending the run in Week 14, yielding only 61 yards against the Bills. Look for offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave to add a couple of wrinkles -- jet sweeps, reverses, more bootlegs, etc. -- but to keep getting Peterson his touches between the tackles with downhill isolation plays.

Work for balance offensively: The Rams were able to get a road win with an average offensive performance in Week 14. They don't match up well up front offensively and need to keep the Vikings' defense guessing. Minnesota was exploited by the Bears last weekend for 6.6 yards a carry, and we should look for Rams offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer to utilize a good mixture of play-action passes and a versatile ground attack on early downs to keep the chains moving in and keep the home crowd loud.

Make Minnesota one dimensional: The Rams have been inconsistent much of the season defending the run, yielding 110.3 yards per contest at 4 yards per attempt. Last week was a great effort vs. the Bills, but it will be tougher derailing the Vikings' ground assault. Minnesota has the league's worst passing attack. Look for defensive-minded Rams head coach Jeff Fisher to design a game plan that uses eight- and nine-man fronts and zone-run blitzes to force the Vikings to put the ball in the air.

Home QB: Sam Bradford has an excellent combination of size and strength with good athleticism for the position. He can move out of the tackle box but operates best from the pocket. Bradford can power the ball into tight windows. He has great vision and poise in the pocket to find second and third options. He is completing 60 percent of his passes on the season but is coming off an average performance in Week 14.

Away QB: Christian Ponder is coming off an unimpressive outing vs. the Bears -- 91 passing yards, no touchdowns and one interception. He has good size and athleticism with a strong arm. He has quickness and speed, allowing him to move the chains with his legs. He is getting better at improvising when the protection breaks down. He has made marked improvement in his accuracy, completing 65 percent of his passes in Week 14. He still tends to force the ball into coverage, but his vision and ability to read coverages have shown improvement. Ponder has talent but isn't asked to do much in the passing game due to the aid of an impressive ground attack.

Key positional battle -- Minnesota O-line vs. St. Louis D-line: The Vikings have been impressive opening holes in the running game but have been inconsistent with their pass protection in long-yardage situations. The Rams were stout a week ago defending the run and also had five sacks versus the Bills, giving them 39 for the year. This battle in the trenches will clearly determine this week's outcome. St. Louis will likely stack the line of scrimmage, but the big boys still have to win at the point of attack to derail the Vikings' offense.

Featured player: Peterson is coming off major knee surgery but is having an outstanding season. He leads the league in rushing with 1,600 yards and appears to have recovered his strength and speed. Peterson runs with great vision and power between the tackles and moves the pile on contact. He has a violent running style with burst to pick up chunks of yards. He is a reliable receiver and blocker in blitz pickup. The Vikings' offense is all about Peterson, and he's on pace to rush for over 2,000 yards and possibly break Eric dikkerson's season record of 2,105 yards.

Film room nuggets: Daryl Richardson didn't have a big game for the Rams in Week 14, but his quickness, speed and darting style provide an excellent contrast to featured back Steven Jackson's powerful downhill running. ... Vikings defensive end Brian Robison is a great complement to Jared Allen. Robison is undersized for the position but shows deceptive strength defending the run and great quickness and counter moves rushing the passer. ... With Percy Harvin on IR, Marcus Sherels has shown the ability to be dangerous as a returner for Minnesota. He is small in stature but shows great quickness, burst and vision to hit a crease.

Prediction
Minnesota 24
St. Louis 23

Both clubs are coming off impressive wins in Week 14 and need a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. This will be close into the fourth quarter, but Peterson is on a mission and the Vikings will squeak one out on the road.

Jaguars-Dolphins: Dolphins should be OK vs. Jacksonville if they protect ball

QB RB WR OL DL LB DB Coach = Dolphins
ST = Jaguars

Control game on ground: The Jaguars had one of their best outings rushing the football versus the Jets in Week 14, averaging 5.1 yards per attempt for 123 yards. Meanwhile, Miami was exploited for 155 yards on the ground in Week 14. Jacksonville may have found a diamond in the rough in veteran back Montell Owens, who averaged 6.5 yards per attempt last weekend. Look for Jaguars offensive coordinator Bob Bratkowski to pound the rock, which should aid his struggling quarterback.

Stay balanced to exploit Jacksonville: The Jaguars are ranked 31st defensively and have a tough time playing base defensive schemes. Miami's 29th-ranked offense is no juggernaut but has enough talent to keep Jacksonville guessing. Look for Dolphins offensive coordinator Mike Sherman to design a game plan around high-percentage passes and a diverse ground attack to set the tempo.

Turnover battle and special teams: The Jaguars have been solid in regards to turnover margin (even for the season), while much of the Dolphins' problems have stemmed from not taking care of the football (23 turnovers, minus-11 differential). Both teams are solid in the kicking game. Miami has an edge with its returners while Jacksonville has a slight edge at punter and place-kicker. Jacksonville appears to be overmatched in this contest but will have the advantage in these two phases of the game. The Jaguars will need to make something happen in regards to the turnover battle and special teams to have a chance.

Home QB: Ryan Tannehill is a big, strong rookie quarterback with good athleticism. He is coming off a modest 17-for-33 performance for 150 yards versus the 49ers. He has a live arm and can power the football into tight windows. He is best from the pocket but has shown speed outside the tackle box to move the chains with his legs. Tannehill is a talented signal-caller but tends to force the ball into coverage, resulting in 12 interceptions against eight touchdown passes. His accuracy and decision-making should improve versus a marginal Jacksonville defense.

Away QB: Chad Henne is coming off poor performance in Week 14, when he went 21-for-43 for 185 yards and two interceptions. He has good size and athleticism. He has very good arm strength and can fit the ball into tight spaces. Henne had 31 starts for the Dolphins prior to coming over to Jacksonville in 2012. He can improvise out of the tackle box but operates best from the pocket. He is a career 60 percent passer but has hit on only 51 percent of his throws since being inserted for the injured Blaine Gabbert. Henne has talent to develop but really doesn't have much explosive talent around him, especially with Cecil Shorts' injury status in question.

Key positional battle -- Dolphins' DEs vs. Jaguars' OTs: The Dolphins field two talented ends, Cameron Wake and Jared Odrick, who can generate great pressure off the edge. Wake is Miami's most disruptive defender with great quickness and agility as a pass-rusher, and he also gets penetration versus the run. Jacksonville fields two capable tackles, Eugene Monroe and Cameron Bradfield, but has been inconsistent much of the season. If the Jaguars don't stymie Wake and Odrick, they have little chance at a road upset.

Featured player: Justin Blackmon leads the Jaguars in receptions in his rookie year. He has a good combination of size, strength and athleticism. His route running has shown marked improvement as the season has progressed. Blackmon has deceptive speed, quickness and power to get separation. He can keep the chains moving with his ability to make the tough reception in traffic and shows the ability to pick up yards after the catch. Blackmon will be counted on even more this week if Shorts is still sidelined with a concussion.

Film room nuggets: Jacksonville tight end Marcedes Lewis is a big target with good hands and a large receiving radius. Given his size, he is a very good route runner and understands how to get separation with his length and strength. It would be wise for a struggling Jaguars quarterback to look for him more this weekend. ... Linebacker Karlos Dansby is a nine-year veteran who anchors the middle of the Dolphins' defense. Despite the Miami defense giving up huge chunks of yards to the 49ers, Dansby showed great instincts, quickness and power to lead the team in tackles, as he has done all season.

Prediction
Miami 24
Jacksonville 17

Neither club is going to the postseason, and both have struggled to find a win in recent weeks. Miami is at home, is more talented and is much closer to putting it all together.

ThaBronxBully · Dec 15, 2012

Skooby If You Ever Have Any Knicks Related Insider Stuff I'd Appreciate It Bruh

Skooby · Dec 15, 2012

Jplaya2023 said:
Skooby, can you post Niners pats, broncoes ravens please

I'm going to post them all.

Bucs-Saints: Brees could turn tide against Bucs' shaky D

QB LB DB ST = Saints
RB WR OL DL Coach = Bucs

Keep Brees on the sidelines: Even though Drew Brees has struggled over the past few weeks, he is still one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the NFL. The Buccaneers need to sustain time-consuming drives that produce points and keep Brees and his explosive offense on the sidelines. A strong ground game featuring rookie Doug Martin mixed with an effective, controlled passing attack should allow the Buccaneers to move the ball on a struggling New Orleans defense.

Air it out: Brees is likely looking at this game with great anticipation. The Buccaneers are the league's worst pass defense when it comes to yards per game (312). This is a defense that is not doing a particularly good job of pressuring the pocket or defending the pass, and Brees is always capable of putting up big numbers.

Turnovers and special teams: New Orleans has been intercepted a league-high 18 times and has lost five fumbles -- giving it a minus-4 turnover differential. Tampa Bay, meanwhile, has only 12 giveaways and is plus-12 in turnovers. The two teams are closer when it comes to special teams, although the Saints are a bit more explosive on returns with Darren Sproles handling both the punt and kickoff returns. Travaris Cadet is also a threat.

Home QB: Brees is not having one of his better years, but he remains dangerous. He is one of the best when it comes to understanding offensive schemes and reading coverages. He shows laser-like accuracy when given time and throws the ball on the move almost as from the pocket. He suffered probably his worst game in a Saints uniform in Week 13 with five interceptions against the Falcons. With nine interceptions in the past three games, he needs to make some changes.

Away QB: Josh Freeman is enjoying arguably his best season yet as he is trying to lead the Buccaneers to the playoffs. He is a good-sized quarterback with a strong arm and can be very accurate when throwing from the pocket. He is a decent scrambler who can get the ball out from the perimeter but does his best work from a set pocket. He had five consecutive games with a passer rating of well over 100 but has also suffered a couple of games in which he couldn't connect on 50 percent of his passes. He is a solid leader with the skills to take his team to the playoffs, but needs to prove he can be a difference-maker.

Key positional battle -- Brees vs. Buccaneers' secondary: Whether Brees or Tampa Bay's secondary manages to come up with big plays will have a lot to do with the outcome of this game. Although the Buccaneers' secondary has thrived at picking off passes, it is giving up a lot of yards. Brees has been struggling as of late, but he has the ability to put it all behind him and come up big when needed.

Featured player: Tampa Bay WR Vincent Jackson has a chance to have a major impact. He is a huge target who is one of the best at gaining yards after the catch. He may lack explosive downfield speed but is very strong once the ball is in his hands. He has a great sense of angles with a lot of open-field running skills. With the Saints' inability to tackle on a consistent basis, especially on the back end, Jackson has a good chance to lead his team to a win.

Film room nuggets: Brees is going through probably the worst stretch of his career. It looks like he is leading the secondary to his primary target and forcing too many balls. ... Freeman is playing at a very high level as he is looking calm in the pocket and in charge of what's going on. He is very accurate with the pass and takes just what the defense gives him, as opposed to trying to force the issue. ... Martin not only shows an excellent burst into the hole but also has a strong base as he gets a lot of yards after initial contact.

Prediction
Tampa Bay 24
New Orleans 20

The Saints are in a free fall and are making too many mistakes to outscore their opponents. With their problems on defense, the Saints have to play pretty much mistake-free football to win, and that is unlikely this week.

Broncos-Ravens: Manning vs. Reed should be fun to watch

QB WR OL LB DB ST Coach = Broncos
RB DL = Ravens

Trick the secondary with your eyes: Few NFL quarterbacks are better at using their eyes to take defenders away from where the ball is going than Peyton Manning. This skill is going to be even more important as he faces a ball-hawking safety like Ed Reed, who is a master when it comes to reading the quarterback from a deep zone coverage. Manning is going to want to know just where Reed is lined up on each play and then try to look him off when challenging the Ravens on deep routes.

Keep Rice involved: The Ravens will be breaking in a new offensive coordinator after the firing of Cam Cameron and will likely be a bit conservative as their new coordinator, Jim Caldwell, gets comfortable with calling plays and what works for his personnel. What he can't afford to do is to get into a passing contest with Manning. Look for RB Ray Rice to get a lot of touches, especially early, as the Ravens try to control the clock and keep the ball out of the hands of Manning and Denver's offensive machine.

Protect the pocket: Both the Broncos and Ravens need a solid pocket for their respective quarterbacks. Manning is hardly a scrambler, although he does have a great knack for avoiding pressure and buying a little time. Although the Ravens' Joe Flacco is a more effective scrambler, he is much more effective when throwing from the pocket. Denver has an explosive pass rush with Von Miller coming off the edge, and Baltimore hopes to get Terrell Suggs back for this game. Just how well the offensive lines can protect their quarterbacks will be a huge key.

Home QB: Flacco is a big, athletic quarterback with a very strong arm and the ability to hit small windows when his feet are set. While he is athletic enough to extend plays or buy time, he is most effective when working behind a solid pocket and using the ground game to set up the pass. He is still working on his consistency but has managed to produce more positive plays than negative as the season has progressed. He's not the game-changer that Manning is, but he does have big-play capabilities.

Away QB: Manning has quickly returned to the elite level, in spite of missing the whole 2011 season with an injury. He is not a scrambler but has a great feel for pressure and the lanes he can move through in order to buy time. He prepares for virtually every eventuality and rarely makes mental mistakes. He can get the ball out from nearly any platform but is more effective when he can get his feet set and drive on the ball. He may not throw the prettiest spiral, but is one of the most accurate throwers and it's an easy ball to catch.

Key positional battle -- Broncos' O-Line vs. Ravens' D-line: Although the Broncos are going to win or lose this game based on their passing success, they do need to run the ball effectively to keep Baltimore honest on defense. The Ravens' front three is extremely big and powerful and very difficult to move off the ball. Denver is trying to make up for the loss of featured back Willis McGahee with Knowshon Moreno, who is not going to create as many running plays on his own and needs his line to get some movement up front.

Featured unit: Baltimore is needs its defense to come up big at home. With Manning behind center, the Broncos can score almost at will. If it is a close game in the fourth quarter, few people would bet against Manning to come up with the game-winning drive. Reed and Manning have met up several times over the years and few defenders know Manning's tendencies better than Reed.

Film room nuggets: Moreno is giving the Broncos a fresh set of legs after missing eight of their first 10 games this season. Although he does not get as many yards after first contact, he does show a good burst through the hole as well as the ability to be an effective receiver out of the backfield. ... Denver's Demaryius Thomas has become one of the elite receivers in his third year. He has the speed to stretch the secondary and his effective receiver in a crowd, where he can use his size and leaping ability to win jump balls.

Prediction
Denver 29
Baltimore 27

Manning has had extra time to prepare for this game and the Broncos' defense can pressure the pocket like few other teams, which could force Flacco into some bad decisions.

Colts-Texans: Texans have a short week, but should take the Colts

QB RB WR OL DL LB DB ST Coach = Houston

Rattle the rookie: Houston defensive coordinator Wade Phillips loves to bring the heat when he is facing a rookie QB, even one as good as Andrew Luck. We can be sure Phillips will do everything possible to press the pocket. While DE J.J. Watt is a disruptive force on his own, when you add the blitzing capabilities of Connor Barwin and Whitney Mercilus, Phillips has a lot of options. As good as Luck has looked this year, he has thrown 18 interceptions and is still seeing some defensive packages for the first time.

Crowd the box on early downs: Houston head coach Gary Kubiak, who directs the Texans' offense, loves to establish the run early, and the Colts have not exactly been great when it comes to run defense this year. Look for Colts defensive coordinator Greg Manusky to push safety Tom Zbikowski up into the box a lot on early downs in an attempt to limit Houston's success on the ground.

Sustain some drives: The Texans, behind Matt Schaub, are a grind-it-out type of team that thrives on sustained drives and working their way down the field. Against the Patriots on Monday night, the Texans had five drives that lasted five or fewer plays as they were shut out in the first half. As they prepare for the playoffs, Kubiak is going to want to see his offense be able to convert on third downs and keep drives alive.

Home QB: Schaub is an excellent quarterback with an above-average skill set but a great understanding of the Texans' offensive scheme and how to read coverages. He does a good job of distributing the ball to all of his receivers and is excellent on his play-action fakes. He rarely forces the issue but knows when to take some chances.

Away QB: Luck has an excellent future in Indianapolis and has already become the face of this franchise. He is very smart and understands the Colts' schemes as well as how to read coverages and go through his progressions. He is more athletic than you'd expect for someone his size and can extend plays with his feet while getting the ball out from the perimeter and on target. Although he still going through the expected rookie struggles, he is a lot further along than most quarterbacks at this stage. Pressure can affect his play, but he is learning how to escape and make plays on the move.

Key positional battle -- Colts' receivers vs. Texans' secondary: The Texans' secondary, specifically their cornerbacks, have been scorched the past few weeks partly because of injuries. The Colts' receivers are getting more comfortable with their new quarterback as each week goes by and have the speed and skill sets to put up a lot of yards. Phillips needs to give his cornerbacks help in the form of safeties over the top if he is going to continue to dial up man coverage on the perimeter.

Featured player: After struggling to get untracked in New England, Arian Foster will likely be a focal point of Houston's offense. As the Texans face the league's 28th-ranked run defense, Foster has a chance to put up some big numbers.

Film room nuggets: Houston left OT Duane Brown is quietly having an excellent season. You don't hear his name a lot, but when you watch him on film he rarely gets beat one-on-one. He has excellent initial lateral quickness and does a great job of staying on his feet and finishing his blocks off. ... Reggie Wayne is thriving with Luck as his quarterback. He is enjoying arguably his best season ever as a Colt with seven catches per game game and 13.0 yards a catch. He is an excellent route runner and has exceptional hand-eye coordination.

Prediction
Houston 23
Indianapolis 20

With a short week to prepare, the Texans could struggle initially but should manage to finish the game strong and put up enough points.

Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

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