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[Da_Eggman]

OKC Thunder: 2012-13 Forecast
Overview

So now that the inevitable has happened and the Thunder are the reigning Western Conference champions, it's time to move on to a different question: Can they keep the band together?

As the ultimate small-market team trying to do everything right to build and maintain a winner, the Thunder in some ways represent the first teal test for the league's collective bargaining agreement. So far they've checked every box, but now comes the really hard part. They've already maxed out Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, and paid a rich extension to Serge Ibaka. But now the question becomes, How do they keep James Harden?

The real dilemma is a year down the road, when Harden hits restricted free agency, but it's by far the biggest obstacle facing the Thunder as a franchise. Harden is almost certainly a max player; if the Thunder don't give it to him, somebody else will. (Reference point: Eric Gordon and Roy Hibbert got max offer sheets this past summer.)

Here's the problem: A max deal for Harden will give the Thunder something in the neighborhood of an $85 million payroll a year from now, when the league's more draconian luxury tax penalties kick in. Which would result in Oklahoma City cutting a check in the $25 million range to the league, depending on where next season's luxury tax level comes in (it's now at just over $70 million). That's mostly because three other players they drafted, Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka, also make in excess of $12 million a season, but also because of one mistake -- a dubious, expensive extension for center Kendrick Perkins.

HOLLINGER'S PLAYER PROFILES

Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Thunder's roster. Player Profiles Insider

There are alternatives available, perhaps. They can use their amnesty clause to waive Perkins, get down closer to $75 million in payroll, and bypass most of the tax payments. Of course, they'd still be paying Perkins $10 million to not play for them, so the roster still would be very expensive. They can trade Harden or one of their other expensive players, although they're certain to get 50 cents a dollar in return. Or they can suck it up and pay through the nose for a year or two in a quest for a title.

The new CBA had two other unpleasant surprises for the Thunder. The first -- the "Rose rule" on extensions that gives bigger ones to superstar players -- helped put them in this mess. The value of Durant's extension rose by about $4 million per season because of this rule, which puts the Thunder $4 million deeper into the tax if they extend Harden. (It also put them just over the cap last summer, preventing them from bidding on the likes of Chauncey Billups in amnesty auctions.)

Wait, there's more: The new CBA incentivizes star players to become unrestricted free agents rather than sign extensions. It used to be that the Oklahoma Citys of the world had a nice weapon at their disposal to hang on to their stars -- just keep extending them a year before the contract expired, and they'd never become free agents.

But in an unintended consequence of owners' anger over the Carmelo Anthony saga and several similar events, the new CBA only allows a short extension, which means it's no longer worth it for players to extend when they can get a long-term deal a year later.

You know who that hurts? Not L.A. and New York, that's who. Just think: Durant will be a completely unrestricted free agent in 2016, and there's nothing the Thunder can do other than hope he wants to stay. Ditto for Westbrook and Serge Ibaka in 2017. Yes, that's far down the road, but it's coming.

In the meantime, they obviously have a heck of a team, and regardless of the Harden situation they should challenge for the championship this season. But the Thunder did everything right -- hitting home runs on four straight draft picks, avoiding bad contracts and patiently building a winner. If even they can't keep a good team together in a small market, it doesn't say great things about the CBA's alleged ability to let small markets compete for championships.



2011-12 Recap

Kevin DurantAndrew D. Bernstein/Getty ImagesThe Thunder claimed their first West title, but they couldn't withstand the Heat in the NBA Finals.

The Thunder violated every conventional notion of what a great offense should look like, and had a great offense anyway. They didn't have a pure point guard; in fact their point guard shot a lot and not particularly accurately. They had the league's lowest assist rate and nearly led the NBA in turnovers. They were last in pure point rating, and second to last in shot attempts per possession -- even the Bobcats outdid them here.

HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS

W-L: 47-19 (Pythagorean W-L: 48-18)
Offensive Efficiency: 107.1 (2nd)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.0 (9th)
Pace Factor: 95.7 (6th)
Highest PER: Kevin Durant (26.26)

But once they got a shot away, holy hell were they good. The Thunder were second in 2-point shooting, first in foul shooting and 11th in 3-point shooting. They had the league's highest free throw rate, accentuating their skill at the line, and as a result led the league in both secondary percentage and true shooting percentage.

So despite the lack of flowing passing and the rampant turnovers they were second in the NBA in offensive efficiency, propelled almost entirely by the efforts of three players. Harden had a TS% of 66.0 and Durant 61.0%, supplying ridiculous efficiency for such high-volume players. Westbrook chimed in with more normal efficiency (a league-average 53.8 TS%) but at an insanely high volume, a framework that has earned him considerable criticism but worked splendidly in concert with the other two last season.

Lowest Assisted Basket Rate, 2011-12
Team % of FG assisted
Oklahoma City 49.7
Sacramento 51.0
Indiana 52.2
Washington 52.3
Memphis 53.2
League average 57.5

Secondary Percentage, 2011-12 Leaders
Team % of FG assisted
Oklahoma City 9.63
Orlando 9.27
New Jersey 9.11
Minnesota 9.08
New York 9.01
League average 7.92

Worst Shot Attempt Disparity, 2011-12
Team Shot* differential per 100 possessions
Oklahoma City -3.97
Boston -3.55
L.A. Lakers -3.39
Charlotte -2.69
New York -2.66
League average 0.00
* "Shots" = FGA + (FTA *0.44)

This was not always the most attractive offense to watch, but again it was extremely effective, and was so despite the fact that several secondary players were pretty much inert.

Defensively, the Thunder were an interesting team as well, giving up a lot of points in the paint but also posting by far the league's highest shot-block rate, rejecting 9.58 percent of opponent offerings. Obviously Ibaka was the biggest factor here, but Durant also had an unusually high block rate for a wing player and several others contributed -- even without Ibaka, the Thunder out-blocked six other teams.

As a result, the Thunder were third in field goal defense and fourth in 2-point field goal defense. They were only ninth in efficiency, however, because of the same weakness that plagued them on offense: shots. The Thunder were poor at forcing turnovers and below average on the defensive glass, and as a result only the Lakers gave up more opponent shot attempts per possession.

The net result is a staggering disparity. The Thunder took 94.4 shots per 100 possessions and gave up 98.4. This was the league's worst shot attempt differential, and by all rights it should have consigned the Thunder to the lottery. But they were so efficient with their shots on offense, and forced so many misses on the shots at the defensive end, that they nearly won the championship anyway. One shudders to think how good they might be if they got this ratio somewhere close to parity.



Offseason Moves

Serge IbakaBrett Deering/Getty ImagesThree of the four pieces are in place. Serge Ibaka became the latest OKC player to ink a big extension.

The Thunder had a quiet offseason, as per usual of late, mostly cementing their nucleus and tinkering around the edges. The biggest move, in fact, was the four-year deal they gave head coach Scott Brooks:

Signed Serge Ibaka to four year, $49 million extension: This deal includes unlikely incentives that could take the value up another 2 or 3 million, but the really interesting part is it values Ibaka a lot more going forward than the Thunder valued him looking backward. Ibaka was just another dude in their big man rotation last season; when the Thunder went small, they often played with Kendrick Perkins or Nick Collison as the long big rather than Ibaka.

That can't be the case going forward if Ibaka is going to justify this salary. He's a great shot-blocker but he has considerable work to do on the rest of his defensive game. Similarly, he's become an adept spot-up shooter and can finish at the rim, but he has no ball skills or post game to speak of. Even without those skills he's a good player and one who probably deserved more run than he got a last season (he played 27.2 minutes per game), and he certainly would have been paid by another team if the Thunder hadn't forked over this much cash. He just needs to continue developing.

Let Nazr Mohammed go, drafted Perry Jones and signed Hollis Thompson: Jones was an interesting upside play after a confounding college career in which he flashed intriguing talent but not consistent production. He may fit here, however, as a combo forward who can play alongside Durant and stretch the floor. Thompson was an undrafted free agent who got guaranteed money, with the Thunder pursuing cheap young help and eschewing signing veterans to short-term deals. Again, the cap situation looms here -- the idea is to see if they can get a very cheap player on the books for the two seasons after this one.

Signed Hasheem Thabeet for three years, $3.7 million: Continuing that theme & only about half of Thabeet's money is guaranteed, but the Thunder are taking a calculated risk on his ability to convert his shot-blocking talent into a real basketball player. If so, they have a very inexpensive backup 5 for the next three years. Ideally Cole Aldrich mans that position, but the Thunder may face a financial decision with him as well, as his option year for next season, at $3.2 million, starts getting very expensive in concert with the tax implications of a Harden extension.

Let Derek Fisher go: He wasn't needed with Eric Maynor returning from his knee injury, although somebody of Fisher's ilk will be a year from now. If it's touch and go whether the Thunder can keep Harden, you have to figure Maynor is as good as gone once he hits restricted free agency. The hope is that Reggie Jackson can grow into the role -- he bombed as a rookie last season, but he has talent -- and one shouldn't be surprised if the Thunder trade Maynor at midseason to extract some value before he ships out.



2012-13 Outlook

Oklahoma City ThunderLayne Murdoch/Getty ImagesWhile a major decision looms, the Thunder are primed for another run at the title in 2012-13.

There's a good chance this team gets back to the NBA Finals. In fact, I'd argue there's a better chance of that than there is of the Thunder being the West's top seed when the playoffs start. Oklahoma City didn't have the best record last season despite another round of good fortune on the health front; while losing Maynor was a blow, its four stars missed four games between them and the only secondary player to miss significant time was Thabo Sefolosha.

And if any of the Thunder's stars miss much time, it's going to knock them back, because this is still one of the league's most top-heavy rosters. Outside their four stars, nobody else had a PER above 12 and two starters were in single digits. This matters less in the postseason with more rest between games and more minutes for the four stars, and as I noted in the Spurs section it was the major difference between the two teams in the playoffs.

But in the regular season, there are likely to be some bumps, and those bumps are likely to be enough to cost them the top seed in this conference. Which speaks to the secondary question facing the Thunder if they keep Harden: Can they fill out the rest of the roster with enough decent players to put them over the top?

Looking at the offseason moves and the focus on young upside guys with partial guarantees, it seems the Thunder has very limited resources to use on the back end of the roster. That won't matter if one or two of the younger guys become decent players and/or somebody wriggles free during the season that agrees to join them for the minimum. And still, it may not matter if Perkins becomes a reasonable facsimile of the player the Thunder thought they were getting two years ago. Nonetheless, it's a lingering problem, and one that may only worsen once Maynor goes.

With all that said, it's hard to see much empty in this glass. The Thunder have four All-Star-caliber talents in their early 20s, and if they can lock all four up for the long term it will take very little in the way of support to put them over the top. For that reason, I'd bet on a return engagement with the Heat this June ... even if they have to a win a series or two on the road to get there.

Prediction: 58-24, 2nd in Northwest Division, 3rd in Western Conference

 

[Da_Eggman]

Boston Celtics: 2012-13 Forecast
Overview

Well, they're not going away quietly. Much as we might be tempted to write off the aging Celtics, they've retooled their roster yet again and nobody else in the East save Miami seems particularly daunting. As a result, the Celtics stand as good a chance as anyone of standing toe-to-toe with the Heat in the conference finals, just as they did in their surprising trip to that round in the 2012 playoffs.

In other ways, Boston was farther off than people realize -- once Chris Bosh came back, Miami won the last two games rather handily, and this team nearly lost to eighth-seeded Philadelphia in the previous round. Nonetheless, there was no expectation Boston would be there at all at midseason. A rejuvenated Kevin Garnett and its usual suffocating defense got it closer than anyone imagined.

HOLLINGER'S PLAYER PROFILES

Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Celtics' roster. Player Profiles Insider

However, this will be their ceiling unless the Celtics get better on offense, where strong field goal percentages were more than offset by high turnover rates and a near-total aversion to offensive rebounding (more on that below). They should at least get more points from the bench this time around, after adding Jason Terry, Courtney Lee and Jared Sullinger, and bringing back Jeff Green. Last season's second unit was basically aiming for a scoreless tie; this one will get some points.

While we call the Celtics old because Garnett and Paul Pierce are a combined 70 years, they've done a solid job of moving some youth into the pipeline as well. Avery Bradley is only 21 and will get a full season as a starter after his insertion into the starting lineup keyed Boston's midseason turnaround in 2011-12. Boston also got a decade younger at shooting guard by replacing Allen with Lee. First-round picks Sullinger and Fab Melo should help round out the frontcourt after last year's rookie find, Greg Stiemsma, departed for Minnesota. And should they falter, a couple of veteran insurance policies (Chris Wilcox, Darko Milicic) remain in the fold.



2011-12 Recap

Rajon Rondo and Dwyane WadeJim Davis/Getty ImagesRajon Rondo and the C's couldn't withstand the Heat after pushing the East finals to seven games.

Boston's KG Era teetered on the brink of extinction for much of last season before a late charge behind -- what else -- suffocating defense saw them emerge as a conference finalist, with a big assist from Derrick Rose's knee ligaments. Garnett himself was much of the cause, as he struggled to move early in the season before finding his sea legs for the stretch run.

HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS

W-L: 39-27 (Pythagorean W-L: 40-26)
Offensive Efficiency: 98.9 (24th)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.5 (2nd)
Pace Factor: 92.6 (22nd)
Highest PER: Kevin Garnett (20.47)

The Celtics had a few shifts along the way, most notably the one that saw Bradley take over as the starting shooting guard from Allen … a move that almost immediately took Boston's defense from merely good to downright scary. The Celtics also found a shot-blocker off the scrap heap in Stiemsma, and mixed and matched an assortment of veteran riff-raff around their top six players.

By the end, Boston was in a familiar spot: second in defensive efficiency. The Celtics led the NBA in field goal defense and 3-point defense, but they fouled more than the league average, which is why the Bulls had a better efficiency mark overall.

They were also particularly good at forcing opponents to screw up: The Celtics led the NBA in turnovers not from steals, at 8.7 percent of opponent possessions.

Worst Offensive Rebound Rate, 2011-12
Team Off. RR
Boston 19.7
Golden State 22.9
Dallas 23.4
Charlotte 23.6
Atlanta 23.9
League average 27.0

The thing a lot of people didn't understand about Boston last season is how bad it was on offense. The Celtics finished 24th in offensive efficiency, and the core problem was how rarely they got second chances. Boston rebounded only 19.7 percent of its misses (see chart), which was the worst offensive rebound rate of all time. Yes, ever. With both big men usually spotting up on the perimeter, if not outright retreating on defense, the Celtics rarely had a player in position for a second shot. When they did, it was often the point guard. Between that and an above-average turnover rate, the Celtics averaged fewer shots per possession than any team in basketball, and you can't very well score if you don't shoot. They shot the ball just fine; in fact the Celtics were well above the league average in shooting and TS%. They just didn't generate nearly enough attempts.

Fewest "Shots"* Per 100 Poss., 2011-12
Team Shots/100
Boston 92.3
Oklahoma City 94.4
Miami 94.9
New Orleans 95.0
Toronto 95.0
League average 96.6
"Shots" = FGA + (FTA*0.44)

Notice in the chart that the second-worst team in this category, Oklahoma City, was still about as close to the league average as they were to the Celtics. While the Thunder and Heat were bad in this area too, the Celtics were magnitudes worse.

The good news in Boston's offensive malaise is that much of it was the result of the bench, not the core group. The Celtics got an astounding 4,315 minutes from players with single-digit PERs last season, and not one of them will be on the roster this season. If they can just replace the Pietruses, Hollinses and O'Neals of last season with halfway decent offensive players, they may improve quite a bit at this end.



Offseason Moves

Jason TerryBrian Babineau/NBAE via Getty ImagesAfter Boston let Ray Allen leave, Jason Terry swooped in to provide a boost in the backcourt.

Save for one orca-sized wart, the Celtics had themselves a fine offseason that should launch them right back into the Eastern Conference race. Even the one free-agent setback (Ray Allen's departure) was followed by an admirable recovery that arguably left them in better shape than if Allen had stayed:

Re-signed Jeff Green for four years, $36 million: Can they amnesty Green yet, or do they have to wait until the games start? Maybe the Celtics are just trying to keep us on our toes and prove they're capable of screwing up, too. Here's what we know: Green was a fungible player before he missed last season with a heart problem; guaranteeing him four years (with a player option on the fourth!) at a rate far beyond any rational market level is something we might expect from a couple of the league's bumbling organizations, but certainly not this one.

I can't stress this enough: Green is 26 and played four full seasons in the league, and after all that time there's no evidence he's actually any good and considerable evidence that he's a health risk. Yet he's being paid like a second-tier star. This was, without a doubt, the worst contract of the summer.

Re-signed Kevin Garnett for three years, $35 million: And now for the good news … Boston was able to keep their meal ticket, and more important, kept him at a salary just low enough that they could use their full midlevel exception and participate in sign-and-trades. (Both of these factors became hugely important as Boston's offseason progressed.) The Celtics even have a non-guaranteed third season on the deal, so if Garnett chooses to retire after two campaigns he'll leave Boston with a potentially enormous trade chip. (Garnett has a no-trade clause, but if he retires one presumes he won't mind.)

Let Greg Stiemsma and Jermaine O'Neal go, drafted Jared Sullinger and Fab Melo: Boston's cap realities prevented them from keeping Stiemsma, especially once their entire midlevel exception went to Jason Terry. Once that happened, they had no means of matching Minnesota's offer sheet. Instead, they'll go young in the frontcourt with first-round picks Sullinger and Melo. Of the two, I like Sullinger better -- he has a Brandon Bass-type game but with a better knack on the glass, so if his back holds up and he stays in shape he could be very effective. Melo is more of a classic backup center; he'll block shots, but don't pass him the ball unless he's wide open for a dunk.

Sign-and-traded Sasha Pavlovic and two second-round picks to Portland, traded JaJaun Johnson, Sean Williams and E'Twaun Moore to Houston, received a sign-and-traded Courtney Lee for four years, $21 million: One way Boston made up for Ray Allen's loss was this sweet piece of salary cap machination, in which the non-guaranteed deals of Williams and Moore were pooled with other flotsam and parlayed into an ace 3-point shooter who can guard opposing wings. Lee should be a great fit in Boston's system and is young enough that the years aren't too great a risk, helping the Celtics re-arm for the final thrust of the KG Era. Boston also sent cash to the Blazers to pay Pavlovic's salary, and two second-round picks to compensate them for having to watch Pavlovic dribble.

Watched Ray Allen walk, signed Jason Terry for three years, $15.6 million: This was another solid move for the Celtics, as they got a shot-creating guard to give their second unit a much-needed shot in the arm. Terry isn't the pure shooter that Allen is, but his shot creation will be very helpful on a team that has struggled the past two seasons in this area.

Signed Jason Collins for one year, minimum: You're yawning now, but in the event the Celtics play the Lakers in the NBA Finals this is going to become very important. Collins is of limited use against quicker lineups but worth keeping around because of how amazingly well he defends big post-up centers.

Resigned Keyon Dooling and Chris Wilcox for one year, minimum: Now this one, you can yawn about. Dooling ended up retiring.

Signed Darko Milicic for one year, minimum: I'm convinced they did this just to torment The Sports Guy. I don't have a Swahili dictionary handy, but "Darko" may very well be the antonym of "ubuntu."



2012-13 Outlook

Kevin GarnettGreg M. Cooper/US PresswireCan the remaining members of the Big Three era push the reshuffled Celtics into the title picture?

The big-picture view is that they'll defend, though perhaps not quite as well, and they'll struggle to score, but perhaps not quite as badly.

Defensively, Garnett's presence alone virtually guarantees that they'll be above average, but losing Stiemsma and adding two rookies to the frontcourt rotation will hurt the second unit defensively. And while Lee is an upgrade on Allen, Boston used a lot of all-glove, no-hit guys off the bench (Dooling, Pietrus, Pavlovic) last season that now are being replaced with more offense-minded players. If the Celtics are to point to one defensive positive, it's that the suffocating pressure of Bradley will be in the starting lineup … but Bradley may not be back for a while after offseason shoulder surgery.

The good news, however, is that the added offense, especially from Terry, should take some of the strain off Garnett, Pierce and Rondo. The former two players struggle to create easy looks in one-on-one situations, and while Rondo can be a dynamite set-up man, his own inability to score makes it hard to use him as the focal point.

Thus, the likes of Terry, Lee, Sullinger and Green will add more options for Boston offensively, particularly when the second unit comes in. (Boston's bench was pitiful offensively last season.) There isn't a pure point guard in the bunch and that may cause some strains, but Boston is likely to improve on its 24th-place standing of last season … particularly if some of the new guys try for offensive boards.

Overall, then, Boston is poised to end up right back where it was last season. With no daunting power in the East beyond Miami, the race for the second position in the conference is there for the taking. I have the Celtics projected in a tight pack with several other teams, so they could easily finish as low as sixth or seventh or as high as second. But given their recent track record, nobody will count them out in the playoffs regardless of where they're seeded.

Prediction: 48-34, 1st in Atlantic Division, 3rd in Eastern Conference

 

[Skooby]

yo wassup man. how you liking it over here? i know you were one of the last ones to leave sohh

It's cool. I guess old habits die hard.

 

[2pac_Westside]

It's cool. I guess old habits die hard.

Welcome

 

[Arrogance.]

I have an Insider account as well, let me know what y'all want/need posted.
*subs*

 

[Rocket Scientist]

I need that Mel Kiper 2011 Draft class re-evaluation.Thanks

 

[STAN JONES]

I need that Mel Kiper 2011 Draft class re-evaluation.Thanks

link?

 

[STAN JONES]

It's a good thing he didn't stay at tight end. As a college freshman at Central Michigan, that was J.J. Watt's role. After leaving football briefly and then landing at Wisconsin, he moved to the other side of the ball. Watt was pretty good at Wisconsin in 2010, then very good in 2011, but he might look back on that time and wonder why he managed only seven sacks in his final year.

Watt already has 7.5 sacks for Houston in 2012 and is simply dominating opposing offenses thus far this season. And the brief look back isn't some statement about the power of perseverance; it's a reminder that Watt is still very young and perhaps just now starting to realize his full potential. It's a reminder that while Watt's draft position at No. 11 overall was a good fit given the skills he'd shown to that point, the ability of players to take their games to another level will always be something we're merely projecting, never assuming.

I was asked to line up the best players so far from the 2011 class, and Watt sits at the top. Wade Phillips' exceptional scheming has taken the Texans' defense from perhaps the league's worst unit in 2010 to among the top few today, but Watt has been the central character in that transformation.

Watt isn't the only guy from that class to already effect a transformation. Let's line them up.

1. J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans (No. 11 overall)

If he continues at this pace, Watt will be an easy pick for defensive player of the year. He's been simply incredible as a disruptive player against both the run and the pass, and he's doing it as a mix of a 3- and 5-technique, constantly exposed to double-teams.

We consider Justin Smith a perfect example of what a great 3-4 defensive end looks like after shifting from that position in a 4-3, but Watt might be doing it one better right now. His ability as a pass-rusher is just one aspect to his dominance. He's also knocked down or tipped eight passes so far in 2012, creating interception opportunities not just with his rush, but with his awareness and active hands. In addition, he has 78 tackles, a significant total from that position through his first 21 NFL games.

If he catches a TD pass before the season is over, showing off the old TE skills, will anyone be surprised? The guy has been brilliant.

2. A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (No. 4 overall)

He's already caught 101 passes -- 21 more than any other WR from the 2011 class -- and piled up 1,550 yards and 11 TDs receiving, and he's done that as the central focus of the opposition's game plan on defense. Green isn't just an over-the-top threat; he makes catches all over the field, runs with conviction after the catch and is a constant red zone threat. In my opinion, he should already be considered among the best wide receivers in the NFL, and he could be at the top of the list before long.

3. Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (No. 35 overall)

Cam Newton has more passing yards, but it's Dalton who has continued the momentum from a very good rookie season into 2012 and has more significantly shifted the fortunes of his team.

It's worth remembering that when Dalton was drafted, the Bengals looked completely lost. Carson Palmer had made it clear he was done with the franchise, and most of us had the Bengals pegged for a terrible 2011 that would be defined by growing pains and an early draft pick in 2012. Instead, Dalton -- with a 92.9 passer rating so far in 2012 -- got the team to the playoffs last season, went to the Pro Bowl and has Cincinnati on course for another playoff berth in 2012.

Dalton also is a reminder that QBs do add arm strength as pros. His ceiling is now higher than I considered it on draft day, and he had plenty of promise then.

4. Von Miller, LB, Denver Broncos (No. 2 overall)

He has 16.5 sacks through his first 20 NFL games, but Miller has shown he's so much more than a pass-rusher. He can be moved all over the formation and is an asset against the run, with 69 tackles. He was the best defender for the Broncos as a rookie, and will be a difference-maker and a Pro Bowl regular for years to come.

5. Aldon Smith, LB, San Francisco 49ers (No. 7 overall)

Smith's draft position at No. 7 wasn't a surprise to me, but it's fair to say he was seen as an incomplete player with a tremendous amount of upside. I thought he'd come along slowly and be a significant pass-rush factor by the end of 2011. Instead, Smith showed he could be a feared pass-rusher immediately; he finished his rookie season with 14.5 sacks and is on an early pace to exceed that total in 2012. Smith is surrounded by significant talent, but his pace among the league's best pass-rushers is already set.

Next group

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers (No. 1 overall)
He's struggled so far in 2012, but Newton's rookie season was nothing short of exceptional given his lack of experience as a pocket passer. He set the NFL record for passing yards as a rookie with 4,051, and he didn't forget how to affect the game as a runner. Newton has 17 rushing TDs thus far as a pro, 11 more than any other player in his draft class.

[+] Enlarge
Chris Trotman/Getty ImagesJulio Jones is already one of the toughest matchups in the NFL.

Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons (No. 6 overall)
The Falcons paid a ransom to get him, but Jones has lived up to the cost. He has 80 catches through his first 18 NFL games, and is easily one of the toughest matchups and most feared passing targets in the league. Green gets the slight nod because Jones has an experienced QB and benefits from the presence of Roddy White.

Richard Sherman, CB, Seattle Seahawks (No. 154 overall)
What a steal. The Seattle secondary isn't maybe the NFL's best without him. He has more interceptions (six) than any other player in his class, and his size (6-foot-3), quickness, smarts and physical nature combine to make him extremely tough to throw at.

Nate Solder, OT, New England Patriots (No. 17 overall)
Now the starting left tackle for the Patriots' offense, Solder was a physical freak with room to improve when he was drafted, but he's already playing really well at one of the league's spotlight positions. He's on Tom Brady's blind side, and he can maul as a run-blocker.

Patrick Peterson, CB, Arizona Cardinals (No. 5 overall)
He was No. 1 on my Big Board when he was drafted, and while Peterson still has work to do to become more dependable in coverage, he is going to keep getting better and has become a weapon on special teams in the meantime. Punt to him at your own risk.

K.J. Wright, LB, Seattle Seahawks (No. 99 overall)
Many still don't know who he is, but offensive coordinators do. Wright flies all over the field and has filled a huge role for the Seahawks, one Aaron Curry wasn't able to.

Torrey Smith, WR, Baltimore Ravens (No. 58 overall)
He has 1,211 receiving yards through his first 21 games and has proved he's far more than the downfield threat Joe Flacco needed.

Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina Tar Heels (No. 12 overall)
After sitting out his final year at North Carolina, Quinn had the talent profile of a top-five pick but needed to shave some of the rust. He already has six sacks in 2012 and is going to be one of the NFL's best pass-rushing threats.

here you go

 

[Rocket Scientist]

here you go

Good looking out man thanks

 

[Da_Eggman]

Timberwolves: 2012-13 Forecast
Overview

Welcome back to the NBA, Minnesota. After a half-decade in the darkness following the Kevin Garnett trade, the Wolves spent the first half of last season in playoff contention before injuries and woeful wing play dragged them to their final record of 26-40.

Nonetheless, it's hard to be pessimistic about their future. Kevin Love emerged as a superstar power forward, Nikola Pekovic quietly was one of the league's most improved players and Ricky Rubio looked at times like the second coming of Jason Kidd. With a clean cap situation and several other young players capable of emerging, time appears to be on their side.

HOLLINGER'S PLAYER PROFILES

Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Wolves' roster. Player Profiles Insider

Moreover, the mere fact that they're no longer committing minutes to lofty ideas such as "Darko Milicic can be the next great post center," "Wes Johnson is our star wing of the future" and "Michael Beasley needs more touches" means the Wolves will almost inevitably run more effective plays with better players in these roles.

Even if they'd done nothing in the offseason that would be true, but the Wolves went on to massively upgrade an open sore at the wing with Andrei Kirilenko, Brandon Roy, Alexey Shved and Chase Budinger.

While questions persist about the management -- see the Milicic-Johnson-Beasley troika referenced above -- Minnesota's bigger dilemma is the unnecessary pickle it put itself in regarding Love's future. By not offering the maximum five-year extension and instead giving him an opt-out after the third year, the Wolves put pressure on themselves to have a contending team by the summer of 2014. By then, Love will be a year from free agency and could try to force his way out -- a movie we've seen countless times already the past few years and one that rarely ends happily for the team.

The good news is the next two seasons are under Minnesota's control. Play well, and everybody will be singing "Kumbaya."



2011-12 Recap

Ricky Rubio Brace Hemmelgarn/US PresswireAfter an encouraging start, the Timberwolves finished in familiar fashion: out of the postseason field.

For a while, it seemed Minnesota would make an abrupt U-turn from a 17-win disaster straight into the playoffs. Between Love's eruption into superstardom, Rubio's arrival and the blossoming of Pekovic, Minnesota suddenly had enough talent to make up for the low-efficiency dead weight clogging a few rotation spots (see Milicic, Beasley and Johnson above) and contend in the vicious West.

The Wolves were 21-19 with a positive scoring margin after 40 games and were locked in a close battle at home against the Lakers, but Rubio tore his ACL late in the game and was lost for the season. Minnesota lost the game, Pekovic left the lineup soon after and the Wolves quickly careened toward the bottom of the standings, winning five games the rest of the season.

HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS

W-L: 26-40 (Pythagorean W-L: 27-39)
Offensive Efficiency: 101.5 (18th)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.6 (21st)
Pace Factor: 93.4 (18th)
Highest PER: Kevin Love (25.41)

Rubio's impact in the backcourt was misunderstood to be an offensive one, but his poor shooting largely offset his brilliant passing, and the Wolves were just average offensively even with Love and Pekovic dominating in the paint. The real development came at the other end, where Rubio's ability to guard wings, take charges and hunt steals helped Minnesota -- the league's 27th-ranked defense in 2010-11 -- vault into the upper half of the league through 40 games.

That number, predictably, faded after Rubio's injury, and a few other dings at the same time exposed Minnesota's still-iffy depth, particularly on the wings. Despite Rubio's ball-hawking, it was a low-risk defense overall, one that was 29th in opponent turnover rate, 28th in steals and 27th in blocks. It worked because the Wolves took away the easy stuff, finishing fourth in secondary percentage against.

At the offensive end, 3-point shooting was the main concern. Love was their best outside shooter, but when defenses collapsed on him, nobody else could pick up the slack. In particular, starting perimeter players Luke Ridnour, Rubio and Johnson all struggled, going 32.2 percent, 34 percent and 31.4 percent, respectively.

Floor-spacing bigs Derrick Williams and Anthony Tolliver were huge disappointments as well. Tolliver made 24.8 percent of his 3s while playing his way out of the rotation. Williams, drafted second overall, flung jumpers indiscriminately and rarely found the net with them, whether on 3s or 2s.

This team's lifeblood was the free throw line, where it ranked seventh in the league in free throw attempts per field goal attempt -- percentage points out of fourth -- and converted 77.1 percent. Love again was the catalyst, but Rubio, Williams and Pekovic all were frequent visitors to the stripe.



Offseason Moves

Brandon RoyDavid Sherman/Getty ImagesThe Wolves spent their summer loading up on wings, including bringing Brandon Roy out of retirement.

Minnesota was one of the most active teams in the offseason, staring with its pursuit of restricted free agent Nicolas Batum. While that didn't work out, several other maneuvers bore fruit, which should lead to a much-improved roster this season.

Traded a first-round pick to Houston for Chase Budinger: The Wolves exchanged the No. 18 pick in return for one of the league's bargain contracts. Budinger makes less than $1 million but has been consistently productive and should be their top wing off the bench. He also played in Rick Adelman's system in Houston and fared well. The only downside is that Budinger is an unrestricted free agent after the season, thanks to his rare four-year rookie deal as a second-rounder, and could easily fly the coop.

Drafted Robbie Hummel: Nothing to see here, at least for now. A late second-round pick, Hummel will spend the season in Europe, and if his knees hold up, he eventually could be a contributor with his shooting and passing skills.

Waived Martell Webster; signed Brandon Roy for two years, $10.4 million: Waiving Webster and saving nearly $5 million was a common sense move, but the Wolves turned right around and spent the money on another oft-injured former Blazer with Seattle roots. Roy is an odd fit for this team on several levels -- he is not a floor-spacer and needs the ball in his hands, and he's not much of a defender.

But most importantly, he has no knee cartilage and was awful the last time he played. This move might have been defensible if the Timberwolves felt they were one player away, but given their more distant prospects of contending, I didn't get why they rolled the dice here rather than using the money on a better fit with fewer injury red flags.

Let Anthony Tolliver leave; traded Wayne Ellington for Dante Cunningham: Tolliver was a useful player two seasons ago but had a very disappointing 2011-12 campaign. In his place moves Cunningham, who is limited offensively but an active defender who can be helpful if he isn't caught in strength matchups. Given how little the Wolves were getting from Ellington, it's a solid upgrade.

Used amnesty on Darko Milicic; signed Greg Stiemsma for two years, $5.2 million: Better late than never. The Wolves used their amnesty on Milicic to make way for their other free agents, and then when their cap space was gone, they used their mini-midlevel on Stiemsma. It was a rare win in restricted free agency, as Minnesota realized Boston had painted itself into a corner with the luxury tax apron and couldn't match. Stiemsma's cap-friendly deal is guaranteed for only the first year, and he'll provide much-needed shot-blocking for a team that was among the league's worst in this category last season.

Traded Brad Miller and two second-round picks to New Orleans: This was a great deal for the Hornets, not so much for the Wolves. Minnesota shed Miller's $848,000 guarantee, which it needed to do to create enough cap space for other deals, but at a cost of giving the Hornets a pair of second-round picks, one from Brooklyn in 2013 and its own in 2016. The Hornets technically gave a second-round pick back, but it is top-55 protected and unlikely to ever be put to use.

Signed Alexey Shved for three years, $9 million: I really liked this move, which should provide another upgrade at the wings and gives the Wolves yet another solid ball handler in the backcourt. (It seemingly portends a trade of Luke Ridnour at some point, as well.) Shved's translated European stats rate him as an immediate contributor, and he's young enough to still get better.

Let Michael Beasley leave; signed Andrei Kirilenko for two years, $20 million: Another huge upgrade on the wings, as Beasley's lovefest with long 2-point jumpers needlessly saddled the offense with empty trips. In his stead is Kirilenko, who spent last season in Russia and had the highest translated PER of any player in the Euroleague. He's a known quantity from his time in Utah, and while the money is rich on a per-year basis, the two-year deal limits Minnesota's risk. Better yet, AK-47 can play a lot of small-ball 4 and probably is even better there than at the 3.

Traded Wes Johnson and a first-round pick to Phoenix; received Jerome Dyson from New Orleans: As part of a three-way trade with the Hornets and Suns, the Wolves dumped the final guaranteed year of Johnson's contact by paying the Suns a first-round pick. Which is pretty bad when you think about it -- Johnson was the fourth overall pick in 2010 and yet was so bad the Wolves had to pay somebody to take him off their hands just two years later. The pick is top-14 protected, at least. Dyson had a nonguaranteed deal and was waived on arrival.

Signed Lou Amundson for one year, minimum: This deal filled the need for an "energy" fifth big to fill out the frontcourt depth. Amundson has his weaknesses, but he can be effective in short stints if he's not matched up against size, especially in an up-tempo game.



2012-13 Outlook

Kevin Love David Sherman/Getty ImagesCan Kevin Love and the Wolves finally break into the playoffs? Their 2012-13 could be a balancing act.

The biggest reason for optimism in Minnesota has less to do with Rubio and Love, and more to do with Darko and Johnson.

Here's why: If the Wolves can just replace all the crappy players they used last season with average ones, they should have a really good team. It's pretty amazing how many minutes this team gave players who had no business being in a rotation, let alone prominently figuring in one. Milicic started 23 games; Johnson, unbelievably, started 64.

That's not all. Go down the list, and you'll see Tolliver, Milicic, Johnson, Ellington and Webster all had single-digit PERs, and those five players played nearly 5,000 combined minutes. Beasley and Williams killed the Wolves with their shot selection, but they played another 2,500. That's 7,500 minutes devoted to nonperformers. To put that in perspective, it nearly quadruples Love's playing time.

This season the Wolves are replacing a lot of that performance with real basketball players: Kirilenko, Budinger, Shved, Cunningham and Stiemsma all should be improvements on the players they replaced. The new wing players provide particularly massive upgrades, while also allowing the Wolves to play a more traditional backcourt. (They started two point guards for most of last season because the wings were so bad.)

While I don't have high expectations for Roy, anything he gives them will be gravy. And then there's Williams, who one has to think will show more shot discipline (and, hopefully, accuracy) in his sophomore season.

A few negatives linger. Pekovic had the biggest one-year PER jump in the history of my database, and we can't just bank on him repeating that effort. Rubio will be out for the first two months or so and probably won't hit the ground running when he returns. Bigger picture, Adelman doesn't have a history of coaching elite defensive teams, so if this team is going to win big, it will do it offensively. Yet the outside shooting still looks like a bit of a weakness.

Finally, this team's management has built up quite a file of head-scratching moves; despite a largely solid summer, Roy might be the latest for that manila folder. One can't just assume it will be the last.

Nonetheless, Minnesota was a playoff team before Rubio got hurt, and it has made major upgrades at several positions that were negatives last season. Even with Rubio diminished, chances are the Timberwolves will bust through into the West's top eight.

Prediction: 45-37, 3rd in Northwest, 7th in Western Conference

 

[Da_Eggman]

New York Knicks: 2012-13 Forecast
Overview

Does anyone know what the Knicks are right now? Including the Knicks?

Are they a defensive-minded team anchored by a dominant center? A free-wheeling, quick-gunning team in the mold of recent Nuggets teams? (They now employ five former Nuggets, four of whom will be in their rotation.) A classic pick-and-roll team that runs everything through its dynamic point guard?

Actually, scratch that last one. The Knicks' curious decision to jettison Jeremy Lin will loom over this season whether they like it or not, especially if Lin plays well in Houston. (As he's likely to.)

That would be fine if this was part of some overarching strategy, but the biggest dilemma for the Knicks heading into this season is one of identity.

HOLLINGER'S PLAYER PROFILES

Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Knicks' roster. Player Profiles Insider

Are they going all-in for a title? Not really, looking at their starting backcourt.

Are they in spend-at-all-costs mode? They were, right up to the point where they let Lin and Landry Fields walk in restricted free agency. That's right, the free-spending, bigger-market-than-anybody-else Knicks gave up not one, but TWO restricted free agents this summer.

Are they building around defense? That was their strength last season, but they have one good defensive player in their starting five (arguably two, depending on whom they start at shooting guard), and their two highest-paid players are sieves.

About the best coherent statement one can make is that the Knicks are built around the idea that Carmelo Anthony is a superstar. That's the only way to make sense of letting Lin go while spending all the money they could find on role players who can defend and shoot. Anthony, alas, hasn't performed to that caliber, as the Knicks' record since acquiring him (51-44) makes clear, but it appears New York is committed to this idea for a while longer. As New York is to the notion that Amare Stoudemire is still an elite player and one who should be starting alongside Anthony. However, the two have rarely succeeded on the court together, with Anthony in particular playing far better as a 4 sans Stoudemire. (One wonders why the Knicks can't simply bring Stoudemire off the bench.)

Thus, the biggest paradox of all: The two big beliefs upon which the Knicks are built actually collide with one another. Anthony is possibly a superstar as a 4 -- his data is good enough from that position that we can't rule it out. But he can't play there if Stoudemire is.



2011-12 Recap

KnicksJim McIsaac/Getty ImagesA long and winding first season for the Knicks' star trio ended in familiar fashion: a first-round exit.

Well, they kept things interesting. New York's season went in three phases: early disaster, Linsanity and the Woodson era. The Knicks began the season with a makeshift bench and a game plan of playing through Anthony and Stoudemire, one that proved deficient when Stoudemire showed staggering decline from his previous season. Making matters worse was the total collapse by point guard Toney Douglas, leaving a gaping hole at that position as the Knicks limped to an 8-15 start.

Here's where a lot of credit has to go to New York's management -- through a number of shrewd (and, believe it or not, inexpensive) moves, the Knicks were able to build out a very respectable bench. Rookie Iman Shumpert showed he was a capable defender, scrap-heap pickup Steve Novak proved both an elite 3-point marksman and a less flammable defender than expected, and post-China import J.R. Smith and amnesty casualty Baron Davis stabilized a creaking rotation.

And a little-known waiver-wire pickup named Jeremy Lin started getting minutes. Which takes us to the second part: Linsanity. I assume you're all familiar with the story by now, as Lin spent a few weeks carving up opposing defenses in Mike D'Antoni's point guard-friendly attack while Melo was injured. When Anthony came back, alas, the good times quickly stopped rolling, and it cost D'Antoni his job.

HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS

W-L: 36-30 (Pythagorean W-L: 42-24)
Offensive Efficiency: 101.4 (19th)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.4 (5th)
Pace Factor: 95.7 (5th)
Highest PER: Carmelo Anthony (21.15)

Enter Mike Woodson, who remade the Knicks into a different kind of team, one dependent on Anthony, still, but more defensive-minded and, thanks to the front office's work, deeper. Lin checked out with a knee injury, and New York thrived with Anthony playing the 4 while Stoudemire was hurt. But when Stoudemire came back, the Knicks reverted to their old ways and were summarily dismissed in the playoffs by Miami.

That series also featured two bad injuries for New York that will affect this season: Shumpert and Davis both blew out their knees. Shumpert might return later in the season, but Davis is highly unlikely to play in 2012-13, if ever again.

It's hard to digest New York's full-season stats because it basically had three different teams, but overall, the emphasis on the 3 stands out. The Knicks were second only to Orlando, with 28.8 percent of their shots coming from beyond the arc. Between the 3s and a high free throw rate, they were fifth in the league in secondary percentage.

They finished below the league average in offensive efficiency anyway, and the reason was turnovers. New York gave it away on 16.6 percent of its trips, ranking 27th among the league's 30 teams, and this was consistent no matter which "era" we're talking about. With Douglas a mess and Anthony flailing as a point forward, the pre-Lin Knicks were a high-mistake bunch. Lin, for all his strengths, was a turnover machine. And while the mistakes calmed a bit under Woodson, the issue persisted.

New York finished a surprising fifth in defensive efficiency, with the Woodson group performing particularly well. Chandler had a huge effect and won the defensive player of the year award for his efforts, but New York also forced turnovers in bunches. Only Memphis was more successful, and only the Grizzlies permitted fewer opponent shot attempts per possession. As a result, the Knicks could succeed despite average shooting defense (52.6 opponent true shooting percentage, against the league average of 52.7).

One can argue they should have succeeded more, actually. New York won 36 games but had the scoring margin of a 42-win team, and it had nearly the same point differential as Indiana, which won 10 more games.



Offseason Moves

Jeremy Lin, Carmelo AnthonyJim McIsaac/Getty ImagesEven after captivating New York City during Linsanity, Jeremy Lin was allowed to flee to Houston.

It was a typical Knicks summer in which they used every available exception and sign-and-trade possibility to rope in every player they possibly could, expenses be damned. ... Right up until it came time to match offer sheets for their starting backcourt. The decision not to might well haunt them this season.

Drafted Kostas Papanikolaou. A very good pick in the second round, but one rendered irrelevant by the next move.

Let Jeremy Lin go; traded Dan Gadzuric, Jared Jeffries, a 2016 second-rounder and the rights to Kostas Papanikolaou to Portland for a signed-and-traded Raymond Felton (four years, $15 million) and Kurt Thomas. This was the most baffling part of New York's offseason -- declining to match an offer sheet to Lin and then spending equivalent money to get veterans Felton and Camby, and giving up assets to do it. Felton had an awful season in Portland, and while he might be a bit better in New York it's still a stretch to call him a legit starting NBA point guard at this point. Lin wasn't a great fit with Melo, but even so he was likely to badly outperform Felton. And the Knicks gave up two second-rounders, Papanikolaou and the 2016 pick, to do it. The 2016 second-rounder is top-37 protected, for what it's worth.

Let Landry Fields go; signed Jason Kidd for three years, $9 million: On paper, Kidd might be the Knicks' starting shooting guard this season. One can argue this position suits him better, as he is much more effective guarding 2s than 1s and effectively plays a spot-up shooting role in half-court offensive sets. More worrisome is that New York guaranteed three years to a 39-year-old point guard who clearly took a step back in 2011-12. As for Fields, Toronto made an absurd offer sheet in the hopes of derailing New York's plans to trade for Steve Nash (remember that?). Even given the Knicks' spend-at-all-costs approach, it wasn't a big shock to see them stick Toronto with this contract.

Traded Toney Douglas, Jerome Jordan, Josh Harrellson, cash and two second-round picks to Houston for a signed-and-traded Marcus Camby (three years, $14 million): New York filled its hole at backup center, although only by somewhat overpaying the declining Camby and surrendering a few useful assets -- not only two second-rounders, but Harrellson, who had shown some uses as a pick-and-pop big man and who now will play against the Knicks in Miami.

One should note that the Knicks pulled off this move and the Felton trade only by signing Gadzuric, Jordan and Harrellson to deals with non-guaranteed second years, a bit of cap-planning foresight that let them participate in the free-agent market via sign-and-trades despite being over the cap. Alas, this window will be closed for luxury tax-paying teams after this season, and the Knicks most likely will be in the tax for the next three years.

Let Mike Bibby, Bill Walker and Baron Davis go; signed Ronnie Brewer, James White and Pablo Prigioni to one-year minimum deals: Getting Brewer for the minimum was the biggest coup of New York's offseason; while he slumped in Chicago last season, he's still a very good defender and his knack for cutting off the ball could prove useful here. In fact, it's possible he will start at the 2.

White and Prigioni are more speculative plays. Prigioni's translated European stats suggest he won't accomplish much, and he's 35 years old, so I don't understand New York's motivation for that deal. White also has bounced around for years, but if he knocks down corner 3s, he will be an upgrade on Walker and could steal some minutes as a backup small forward.

Re-signed J.R. Smith for two years, $5.7 million: This was the most New York could pay Smith, who became the go-to guy for New York's second unit after returning from China. While the Knicks likely gave him too much rope offensively, this is a decent price for his contribution. The deal contains an opt-out option for after the season that Smith is likely to use, but he'll be an early Bird free agent and New York can sign him for up to $4.9 million a year at that point.

Re-signed Steve Novak for four years, $15 million: Novak's big payday came after the Players Association won a court case to establish his Bird rights, even though he had been waived before New York claimed him. (The same case also affected Lin.) Had that not happened, the Knicks almost certainly would have lost Novak to another team. At this price, Novak's deal is decent as long as he can play passable defense, which he did for the first time last season. His shooting ability is obviously not in doubt.

Signed Rasheed Wallace for one year, minimum: Unlike New York's other dice rolls on ancient players, this one carried no risk in terms of years or dollars and, as a result, is a much more acceptable gamble. Wallace's conditioning fell off dramatically in his final two seasons, and one doesn't get the impression he's been running stairs and drinking protein shakes in retirement. Nonetheless, his size, shooting ability and defensive IQ give him a chance to provide some decent minutes off the bench.



2012-13 Outlook

New York KnicksJennifer Pottheiser/Getty ImagesFor better or worse, Amare Stoudemire, Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler will lead N.Y. again.

Once again, this team is likely to have more sizzle than steak. New York did all the classic win-the-news-conference Knicks stuff you're used to by now -- giving long-term deals to declining veterans, trading their draft picks eons ago and letting their best young players leave.

With all that said, this won't be a terrible team, and had Shumpert not hurt his knee, you could make a stronger case that it might earn a top-four seed. The Knicks are going to disappoint offensively as long as they insist on playing Anthony and Stoudemire alongside each other, and that suboptimal setup comes with the added negative of anemic scoring from the backcourt.

That said, the Knicks had a ton of similar problems last season and still won games. No matter how bad Felton is, he'll be better than Douglas or Bibby was, and while Kidd is a shadow of what he was, he and Brewer are unlikely to be appreciably worse than Fields. Similarly, Camby, for all his faults, is a genuine upgrade on the Jared Jeffries-Harrellson combo that previously backed up Chandler.

In an Eastern Conference in which several teams are likely to land within a few games of each other, that yields a wide range of landing spots for the 'Bockers. If everything goes right -- meaning Melo and Chandler stay healthy, Felton lays off the bonbons, and the defensive effort of this past spring sustains itself -- one can see New York winning the division at or near 50 wins. This is particularly true if the Knicks change their stubborn course, start Anthony at the 4 and bring Stoudemire off the bench.

However, we don't do forecasts based on best-case scenarios. New York doesn't have a ton of depth, it's counting on older players and there's a chance Stoudemire's decline will continue into the abyss this season. The more likely outcome is that the Knicks will remain somewhat above-average defensively, thanks largely to Chandler, but that a middling offense will condemn them to another one-and-done postseason.

Prediction: 45-37, 4th in Atlantic, tied for 6th in Eastern Conference

 

[Da_Eggman]

L.A. Clippers: 2012-13 Forecast
Overview

This is when we find out if the Clippers can escape their history and forge a different destiny. Entering the season the Clips are a true eye-of-the-beholder team, one where an observer can see the glass as overflowing or bone dry depending on the point of view.

Let's start with the positives. Blake Griffin is a force of nature that few mortals can stop, and he will be doubly scary when he starts figuring out more nuances to pair with his overwhelming athleticism. Chris Paul is the best point guard in the game and possibly the best leader too, an alpha dog who immediately took charge when he arrived in Los Angeles. Around those two stars are freakish athletes like Eric Bledsoe and DeAndre Jordan, shooters like Chauncey Billups, Willie Green and Caron Butler, creators like Jamal Crawford and Lamar Odom, and grinders like Matt Barnes and Ronny Turiaf.

What could go wrong?

This being the Clippers, the answer is "quite a bit."

HOLLINGER'S PLAYER PROFILES

Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Clippers' roster. Player Profiles Insider

Donald Sterling still owns the team, if you haven't noticed, and he reminded everybody of that fact when general manager Neil Olshey was allowed to depart for Portland. The team opted, in Clipper style, to fill the position as inexpensively as possible, promoting little-known Gary Sacks and having him work with coach Vinny Del Negro -- no Nobel laureate himself -- to conduct offseason personnel moves.

And this is a hugely important year to be depending on cheap help, because Paul -- who is essentially this franchise's badge of legitimacy -- will be a free agent after the season. His decision to stay or go will depend on several factors, but the most prominent will be the franchise's outlook in the four- or five-year window for which he'd be re-signing.

There are other question marks, too. Del Negro is on the last year of his deal, and whoever is the coach as of July 1 will obviously have a major impact on Paul's decision. So, too, will the performance of the several new players the Clips added to the roster in the offseason, something we'll dissect further below.

But the biggest rain cloud is the lingering worry that somehow, some way, Sterling will figure out a means of screwing up the surest thing he's ever had. By all rights, a Paul-Griffin combo should have the Clippers contending for the next half-decade. The fact we're so unsure that will happen is because they've snatched defeat from the jaws of victory so many times before.



2011-12 Recap

Blake GriffinJoe Murphy/NBAE via Getty ImagesIn their first season together, Chris Paul and Blake Grifffin steered the Clippers into the second round.

The Clippers started strong but were knocked sideways by a season-ending Achilles injury to Billups; with a piecemeal wing combination of Butler and Randy Foye trying to hold down the fort, they were exposed at both ends at the 2 and 3. Injuries were a persistent theme all year, actually -- Bledsoe missed 26 games, Mo Williams 14, and Paul and Griffin battled sore knees. Butler also broke his hand in the postseason but amazingly gutted it out.

What made these maladies particularly hurtful was that the Clippers had so little depth, except for at point guard, where they were laden with riches. Things improved, however, when the Clips added Nick Young (by giving up a second-round pick) and signed veteran castoffs Kenyon Martin and Reggie Evans to round out the bench. While the latter two played poorly in the regular season they were effective in the playoffs, and in concert it meant the Clips were no longer playing the likes of Brian Cook, Ryan Gomes and other assorted sub-replacement level fodder.

After some midseason drama where Del Negro was reportedly a game away from getting the ax, L.A. recovered to win 13 of 15 down the stretch and knock off Memphis in the first round of the playoffs, before proving unready for the step up in quality against the Spurs.

HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS

W-L: 40-26 (Pythagorean W-L: 40-26)
Offensive Efficiency: 105.2 (4th)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (18th)
Pace Factor: 91.8 (25th)
Highest PER: Chris Paul (27.09)

Mainly, their success came at the offensive end. The Clips finished fourth in offensive efficiency, with possession a big reason behind their success. With Paul guiding the offense the Clippers rarely turned it over, sporting the league's third-lowest rate of miscues, and with Griffin and Jordan on the glass they were fourth in offensive rebound rate.

The Clips were only 12th in true shooting percentage but had an elite offense because they got so many shots away. (They were fifth in this category and percentage points out of third.) They were also a very effective 3-point team, shooting both often and accurately -- only four teams converted more triples. However, a lot of those 3s left in the summer when Foye, Young and Williams exited, so the return of Billups and the arrival of the newcomers will have to make them up.

The Clippers might have been a high TS% team, too, were it not for their woeful foul shooting. Griffin and Jordan both struggled mightily at the line, yielding an inexcusable 68.0 percent mark for the team that was the worst this side of Orlando.

Defensively, the Clippers plainly underachieved. Griffin and Jordan are very athletic but still learning all the nuances of defending the paint at this level, and on many nights it showed. The Clips didn't help by fouling with abandon; only one team permitted a higher opponent free throw rate.

Additionally, they gave up more 3s than all but four teams, and looking at the talent on the court it's not clear why this happened. Del Negro and his assistants tried in vain to fix this problem by frantically waving their hands from the bench at corner 3-point shooters, but it only served to highlight just how many open triples the Clips were giving up.

Worst Secondary Pct. Allowed, 2011-12
Team Opp. Secondary Pct.
L.A. Clippers 9.00
Toronto 8.85
Golden State 8.63
Utah 8.59
Denver 8.56

Between the 3s and the free throws, the Clippers were the league's worst secondary percentage defense last season (see chart). They were better than the league average defending 2-pointers, but gave up so many 3s and free throws that it still made them a subpar defense overall.

To their credit, the Clips tightened things up down the stretch and played fairly competent defense during the playoffs -- not great, but better. Nonetheless, their struggles at this end cast an unfavorable light on the coaching staff's ability to coax maximum results from this talented group.



Offseason Moves

Lamar OdomAP Photo/Damian DovarganesThe Clippers spent their summer upgrading their bench, including bringing Lamar Odom back to L.A.

The Clippers were without any draft picks after sending Minnesota's first-rounder to New Orleans for Paul last offseason and trading their other pick to Houston in this summer's Odom trade, but they kept plenty busy. In the wake of last season's struggles the Clippers worked hard to upgrade their bench, although the old mantra of "work smarter, not harder" might be apropos here.

Traded Mo Williams to Utah and rights to Fulkan Aldemir to Houston for Lamar Odom in a four-team deal: The Clips traded from their backcourt excess to fill a frontcourt need, so in that sense the deal made a lot of sense. But I think they're banking far too much on a return to the beach suddenly reviving Odom's ability to play basketball, and his poor conditioning on arrival at camp is a poor harbinger on that front. If he can provide even a halfway-decent facsimile of the player he was with the Lakers then this deal becomes a win for the Clippers, but otherwise there were better ways for them to leverage Williams' expiring contract.

Aldemir was the Clippers' late second-round pick who eventually landed in Houston in this deal. (Well, his rights did, anyway. Aldemir is still in Turkey and may never leave.)

Re-signed Chauncey Billups for one year, $4 million: A reasonable way to hedge the risk of Billups' return from a serious Achilles injury, as the Clippers signed him to a fairly low-dollar, definitely low-risk deal and will have his Bird Rights should he prove worth keeping around for longer. Given that he re-signed on a one-year deal, one piece of fine print to this deal is that Billups can veto any trade.

Let Nick Young go, signed Matt Barnes for one year, minimum: Barnes was quietly very effective for the Lakers last season (perhaps the first Laker to do so under the radar), and he should fit in nicely as a backup 3 who can fill in as a smallball 4 on occasion. While he's not a pure floor spacer, his off-ball cutting ability makes him an effective complement to star post players like Griffin. Given the price, it's hard not to like this deal.

Let Randy Foye go, signed Jamal Crawford for four years, $21 million: At first glance Crawford's deal seems outrageously bad, but the final two years are non-guaranteed and could prove a significant trade chip in 2014. In the meantime, he adds some shot creation for a bench that could really use it now that Williams and Young are gone. The bigger problem is that pairing him with Eric Bledsoe in that unit basically gives them two shooting guards (only one of whom can shoot) and zero point guards.

Signed and traded Reggie Evans to Brooklyn for right to swap 2016 second-rounders: The Clippers got virtually nothing out of this, but it was still more than they could have reasonably expected. If their pick is in the top 55 but behind Brooklyn's, they can swap second-rounders. Strike up the band. They also get a small trade exception out of it.

Let Kenyon Martin go, signed Ryan Hollins for one year, minimum: I'm not crazy about Hollins but as a minimum guy to fill out the frontcourt, you could do worse. His phenomenal inability to rebound should be less of an issue with Griffin playing next to him. Martin obviously would have been preferable, but he wanted more than the minimum and I doubt he would have proved worth it.

Used amnesty on Ryan Gomes, signed Grant Hill for one year, minimum: Using the amnesty on Gomes was a no-brainer since (A) he was their only realistic amnesty-eligible player, and (B) keeping him would have cost the Clippers millions in luxury tax. As for the Hill signing, you can't argue with the price, but I'd be wary of expecting too much -- Hill slipped quite a bit last season and doesn't space the floor. At 40 his best use is probably as a situational defensive ace off the bench.

Traded draft rights to Sofoklis Schortsanitis to Atlanta for a signed-and-traded Willie Green (three years, $4.2 million): The Clippers cleverly used a small leftover trade exception from the Paul deal to make this trade happen. The last two years are non-guaranteed, so it's a very inexpensive way for them to add a reserve who shot surprisingly well from distance last season.

Signed Ronny Turiaf for one year, minimum: Turiaf provides a capable backup center for as long as he can stay healthy, which in recent times has been measured in nanoseconds. Given the price, however, it's hard to argue with the gamble.



2012-13 Outlook

Los Angeles ClippersEvan Gole/NBAE/Getty ImagesAre the Clippers ready for big things or a big letdown in the second go-round for the Lob City crew?

The Clippers are in that interesting place where you can project a lot of different potential outcomes. Suppose Griffin and Paul stay healthy all season, Jordan and Griffin improve their defensive recognition, Odom is reborn, Billups fully recovers, Bledsoe keeps up his strong play from last year's playoffs, and Turiaf stays in one piece all year? One can easily see the Clippers pushing into the conference's upper crust in that scenario.

Doom-and-gloomers, alas, can paint an equal and opposite scenario, one where the young bigs fail to progress, Bledsoe can't buy a shot, Billups can't move, Odom's funk proves enduring, the wings are exposed nightly and Del Negro can't find answers on defense. Maybe throw in a puzzling move or two from The Donald and the doomsday view ends with Paul agitating for relocation at the trade deadline heading into his free-agent year.

Once again, we can only make one prediction here, so we'll focus on the most likely outcomes. It says here that Odom is likely to be better than a year ago, simply because he can't be worse, but that he'll still be a far cry from the player he was with the Lakers; I subjectively upped his performance from that in his player projection, but it still makes him a fairly ho-hum backup big.

In fact, there's a lot of ho-hum up and down the roster when you get past the two stars. Jordan has the best chance at being a third impact player, but his offensive limitations and defensive confusion likely limit him to a league-average starting center -- still a nice piece, yes, but not a game-changing one.

Similarly, the bench is deep in terms of useful players, but lacks anyone likely to make a high impact; Bledsoe, with his defensive havoc, offers the best chance. Small forward is also a concern, although the Clips gave themselves four dice rolls (Butler, Hill, Odom and Barnes) to find a solution.

All this might still add up to a contender if the Clippers had a defensive system that could make this group more than the sum of its parts, but there's little evidence that they can be better than league average at this end. Individually, Paul, Hill and Bledsoe are plus defenders and Jordan's shot-blocking has value, but there are a lot of weak links here.

Sum it up and they'll probably be good ... just not good enough, at least in this conference. Which takes us to the even bigger unknown: What such a finish might portend for CP's future plans.

Prediction: 47-35, 2nd in Pacific Division, 6th in Western Conference

 

[Da_Eggman]

Memphis Grizzlies: '12-13 Forecast
Overview

Contender or pretender?

That's the existential question about the Memphis Grizzlies heading into this season, one that likely defines whether a productive but expensive nucleus stays together for a multi-season run or undergoes further alterations.

The Griz seemed pointed toward the "contender" end of the spectrum after finishing one game from the conference finals despite missing high-scoring forward Rudy Gay in 2011, but last season they had their starting five intact and couldn't make it out of the first round. A knee injury to Zach Randolph was the major setback; that Memphis won 41 games playing mostly without him was impressive, but he never regained his All-Star form of the previous season.

HOLLINGER'S PLAYER PROFILES

Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the Grizzlies' roster. Player Profiles Insider

The return of a healthy Randolph would obviously go a long way toward answering the question up top in the affirmative, but so too would an added dash of shooting and a more productive bench. Memphis' second-unit play, particularly at point guard, was a major negative last season, with Randolph's injury partly to blame: Two emergency early-season trades for frontcourt help netted Quincy Pondexter and Marreese Speights but cost them productive guard Greivis Vasquez, and the spot was an open sore the rest of the season.

That move wouldn't have been necessary except the Grizzlies had already lost the vastly underrated Darrell Arthur for the season to a torn Achilles. He and Randolph are back, and the backcourt saw a major upgrade as well: first-rounder Tony Wroten and the high-scoring Jerryd Bayless joined the fray, and Josh Selby looked good in summer league after a rocky rookie season. All this means the nightmare second unit stretches are likely a thing of the past.

But it also means that few excuses remain. Everybody's here and the roster holes are mostly filled, although shooting remains a major question mark. If Memphis is going to contend with this nucleus, now would be a good time to start. If not, it will be tough to justify being a luxury tax payer in this market.



2011-12 Recap

Zach RandolphAndrew D. Bernstein/NBAE/Getty ImagesWith Zach Randolph limited by a knee injury, the Grizzlies couldn't make it out of the first round.

Hoping to move up the Western Conference ladder, the Griz instead found themselves doing triage right out of the gate. Randolph tore his MCL in the fourth game, which Memphis lost by 40 to drop to 1-3, and Z-Bo went on to miss 38 games. With Arthur already out for the season, the Griz were naked at power forward.

The Griz arranged a sign-and-trade with Charlotte for Dante Cunningham when Arthur went down, and then a three-way swap with Philly and New Orleans for Speights to plug the hole left by Randolph. However, fixing that leak sprung another -- dealing Vasquez proved disastrous when Jeremy Pargo (PER 4.46) flamed out as Mike Conley's backup.

Fortunately the Grizzlies got continued improvement from Conley and Marc Gasol, with the latter making his first All-Star team, and steadily gained traction as the season went on. The Griz finished fourth in the West despite the early stumbles, but disappointed in the playoffs when they lost to the Clippers in seven games. Once again, the offense proved their undoing, scoring just 72 points in the finale.

HOLLINGER'S '11-12 STATS

W-L: 41-25 (Pythagorean W-L: 39-27)
Offensive Efficiency: 101.0 (21st)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.9 (7th)
Pace Factor: 93.4 (18th)
Highest PER: Marc Gasol (18.41)

In the big picture, Memphis had two defining trends: A defense that forced a gazillion turnovers, and an offense that couldn't make jump shots.

Let's start with the defense. The Grizzlies weren't particularly good at forcing misses, fouled more than the league average, and were slightly below average on the defensive glass. Despite that, they were a robust seventh in defensive efficiency.

The key? Turnovers. Waves of them. Memphis forced miscues on 18.2 percent of opponent possessions and stole the ball outright on 10.2 percent of them; both figures led the league by a comfortable margin. Most of the mayhem came from the starting backcourt. Among players with more than 1,000 minutes, Tony Allen was second in steals per minute and Conley fourth. The Griz had help: Mayo, Gay and Cunningham all ranked well above the league average for their position in steal rate, and even Randolph and Gasol were just a hair above. Their only low-steal guys were Speights and Pondexter.

Highest Opponent Turnover Rate, 2011-12
Team Opp. TO Rate
Memphis 18.2
New York 17.7
Miami 17.6
Boston 16.8
Milwaukee 16.5
League average 16.0

The surprise, perhaps, is that Memphis' defensive rebound rate didn't budge despite losing Randolph for half the season. Speights' rate nearly matched that of Randolph, and the others picked up the remaining slack.

Offensively, however, Memphis badly missed Randolph. Not on the glass, though: again, Memphis proved resilient here, finishing third in offensive rebound rate despite lacking one of the game's top offensive rebounders for much of the season.

Unfortunately, there were a LOT of shots for them to rebound. Memphis was 22nd in 2-point shooting and 25th in 3-point shooting, and despite taking a huge portion of their shots in the paint the Grizzlies were not particularly adept at drawing fouls.

Zooming in closer, the lack of floor spacing was a major problem. The Grizzlies were 29th in 3-point tries, taking only 15.7 percent of their shots from beyond the arc, and we saw the effects in the playoffs as the Clippers sagged in the paint and gummed up their offense. Actually, we saw it in the regular season, too, as Memphis finished just 21st in offensive efficiency.

Biggest Shot Attempt Disparity, 2011-12
Team Shot* differential per 100 possessions
Memphis 4.45
Philadelphia 2.91
Clippers 2.88
Utah 2.64
Milwaukee 2.00
NBA avg. 0.00
* "Shots" = FGA + (FTA *0.44)

Losing Randolph was a big reason the offense declined, but the bench was another. Mayo and Cunningham were the only reliable weapons on the second unit, with Mayo forced to double as the backup point guard after Pargo, Selby and Gilbert Arenas all failed brief trials. Pondexter played 1,002 minutes despite a PER of 9.35, and otherwise Memphis leaned on its top six healthy players for some of the league's heaviest minutes loads. Most notably, Gay finished third in the league in minutes and the lumbering Gasol was sixth overall and first among centers.

Stepping back, however, the Grizzlies again excelled in their "quantity" strategy. Thanks to all the turnovers they forced and their solid work on the glass, Memphis had the league's biggest differential in shot attempts (see chart). Had the Griz converted more of those shots into baskets, they would have been an elite team.



Offseason Moves

O.J. MayoAP Photo/LM OteroO.J. Mayo bid adieu to Memphis this summer, leaving the Grizzlies for a spot with the Mavericks.

Memphis' biggest move came off the court, with the news that longtime owner Michael Heisley would be selling the team to a group led by technology magnate Robert Pera.

On the floor, the Griz mostly focused on the sensible goals of improving the bench and adding more shooting:

Traded Dante Cunningham for Wayne Ellington: This was a trade made for need rather than talent. Cunningham is a better player than Ellington, but the Griz had a crowd at the 4 and precious little in the way of outside shooting. Ellington has struggled in other phases his entire career, but one thing he can certainly do is shoot it (he's a career 37.6 percent marksman).

Traded Jeremy Pargo, a 2014 second-round pick and cash to Cleveland for D.J. Kennedy: Here's what this really was: The Grizzlies paid the Cavaliers to take Pargo off their hands, but it cost them a draft pick and they have to pay part of Pargo's salary. This move reduces Memphis' luxury tax bill after Pargo bombed as the backup point guard last season, so it's effectively slightly ahead despite paying some cash to Cleveland. Kennedy had a non-guaranteed deal and was waived.

Let O.J. Mayo go, signed Jerryd Bayless for two years, $6.1 million: They couldn't keep Mayo given their tax situation, but the Grizzlies found a decent replacement. Forced to only use the taxpayer's midlevel exception, Memphis made a value play in Bayless. He shot 42.3 percent on 3s last season, but that's not a real indicator of his ability -- it only came on 88 attempts, and his career mark is just 35.0 percent. The real benefit is that Bayless can fill it up (20.0 points per 40 minutes last season), and is just 24 years old, so he could still get better. He'll take over the bench scoring role assumed by Mayo last season while backing up both guard spots. Alas, it may be a stopgap, as Bayless can opt out after the season.

Drafted Tony Wroten: Memphis' first-round pick was an excellent value -- a high-risk, high-reward play on one of the draft's most talented players. Wroten exacerbates a team-wide problem -- he can't shoot either -- but he is an elite athlete and huge for a point guard at 6-foot-6, 208 pounds. He may be able to play as the backup right away, and his ability to cross-match with Bayless should also prove very helpful. The hope is that he'll extend Memphis' turnover-causing mayhem into the second unit.

Re-signed Marreese Speights for two years, $8.7 million: Speights' career has leveled off since a promising start with Philadelphia, but he provided a much-needed Band-Aid when Randolph was hurt and his ability to play backup center is quite helpful. The second year is a player option, as it is with Bayless' deal, which is a bit of a disappointment. Basically, if they're good they'll leave, but if they're terrible they'll stay.

Re-signed Darrell Arthur for three years, $9.7 million: Arthur was one of the league's most underrated players prior to the Achilles injury that cost him last season, and the hope is that he can return as the third big man in the rotation. If so, he's a great value as an ace pick-and-roll defender on one end and a floor-spacing jump shooter on the other.

Re-signed Hamed Haddadi for two years, $2.7 million: A reasonable value for a third center who has been very productive in his limited minutes, Haddadi also provides Memphis' only true size aside from Gasol. The second year on this deal is a non-guaranteed year that could prove quite useful in trades.



2012-13 Outlook

Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol Joe Murphy/Getty ImagesCan Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol help the Grizzlies get their bite back in 2012-13?

It's a bit overly dramatic to suggest that everything comes down to Randolph, but his ability to return to his 2010-11 level will have a huge impact on this team's future. Randolph went from a 22.97 PER and an All-Star berth that season to a more ordinary 17.96 last season. The Griz slumped to 21st in offensive efficiency as a result, and at that level it's basically impossible for them to be an elite team.

Optimists will point to the fact that Memphis' starting five has essentially never been healthy and starting at the same time. Everybody forgets this, but Allen didn't move into the starting lineup in 2011 until Rudy Gay was lost for the season. When Allen played more than 25 minutes with the other four, they were 8-2 with a plus-6.2 scoring margin. Last season they got a whole three games together, losing by three points apiece to San Antonio and Oklahoma City and beating Houston by 20, and then went 16-8 with a gimpy Randolph at the end.

This projection takes a pessimistic approach with Z-Bo, mainly because at 31 he's more likely to surprise on the negative side than the positive, but if his PER is closer to 21 than 17 then this team can push for a top-four seed or more. Reportedly he looked great in camp, however, and I've bumped up his projection slightly based on that. The shooting remains a major restraining factor on the offense -- Bayless is unlikely to shoot in the 40s on 3s again, Ellington is unlikely to make an impact (or even play much) and last season's best 3-point shooter, Mayo, is gone. So while they'll get more bench points and rely less on the Pondexters and Cunninghams of the world to soak up minutes, they're still basically striving to be league-average offensively.

Defensively, they're potentially a terror, especially if Z-Bo is moving well. Returning Arthur and adding Wroten should help significantly on this end, while the threat of Randolph on the block makes it easier to play Allen extended minutes. Memphis was seventh in defensive efficiency last season and could easily jump into the top five this season.

Nonetheless, on the contender vs. pretender question, the money seems safer on the pretender side unless Randolph re-emerges and another player -- Gay, perhaps -- can take an extra step forward at the offensive end.

Prediction: 50-32, 2nd in Southwest Division, 5th in Western Conference

 

[Da_Eggman]

Philadelphia 76ers: '12-13 Forecast
Overview

This would be a great story if they hadn't sabotaged it along the way. The Sixers, with a classic no-stars team in a non-marquee northern market, somehow got themselves a big-time star, some nice young pieces and a deep roster with a strong coach. All of the pieces should be in place for this team to make a big run toward the East's elite.

Alas, they botched the rest of their offseason so badly that it won't happen. (More on that below.) Which is a shame, because Philly's story potentially offered a real counterweight for the league to offer the "other 25" teams -- the Sixers got a star center from Los Angeles instead of watching one of theirs go there, and had used a stretch of solid drafts (Jrue Holiday and Thaddeus Young weren't top 10 picks; Lou Williams and Lavoy Allen weren't even first-rounders) to build a strong nucleus in the post-Allen Iverson years.

HOLLINGER'S PLAYER PROFILES

Check out Hollinger's player scouting reports and '12-13 stat projections for the 76ers' roster. Player Profiles Insider

Unfortunately, the little-known story out of Philly was the takeover of the front office by the coach. With nominal general manager Rod Thorn having one foot out the door en route to retirement, Doug Collins effectively took over all of the decision-making. That led directly to some of the disastrous salary-cap management that preceded the trade for Andrew Bynum, which is the reason that Philly won't be contending for anything important this season. The announcement of Tony DiLeo's internal promotion to general manager only cemented that fact. This is now Collins' show from top to bottom.

Philly was an interesting case study for other reasons. Offensively, it stumbled into an interesting concept that other teams might wish to emulate: If you don't have post players, don't run post-ups. The Sixers basically didn't run any the entire season (I'm sure they ran one or two, but it was as rare as an Eric Snow 3-pointer), and it was a big reason they set a record for fewest turnovers in a season. That will change dramatically this season.

When Collins wasn't sabotaging himself with personnel moves, he had another strong go at it on the sidelines. He's engendered a fairly immediate turnaround of the Sixers into one of the league's elite defensive teams, a dramatic U-turn from the Eddie Jordan years, and while the offense was ridiculously conservative, it also kept them out of trouble. The biggest concern with Collins is burnout -- both for him and the players who have to listen to him every day -- and there already were mutterings that Andre Iguodala had heard enough. In that sense, perhaps having five new rotation players won't be such a bad thing.



2011-12 Recap

Jrue HolidayJesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE/Getty ImagesAfter a hot start the Sixers slumped to the No. 8 seed, but they still booted the ailing Bulls in Round 1.
Philly blasted out of the gate 18-7, with a spectacular point differential. We thought that was too good to be true, and it was: Philly went 13-23 in its next 36 games to fall out of the division lead and ended up barely making the playoffs.

Nonetheless, there were a lot of positives here. The Sixers had the scoring margin of a 45-win team; their 10-win differential between real and Expected Wins is the largest since I began tracking this stat. In comparison, the next closest team, the Knicks, were only 5.8 wins off their expected track.

In fact, Philly finished the season fifth in point differential. Partly this was because it was extremely fortunate health-wise: Spencer Hawes missed 29 games but every other key player played at least 60 of the 66 contests, and the health of the backcourt in particular avoided exposing what was a tenuous depth situation.

Offensively, as noted above, the Sixers were an extreme, low-risk outfit that mostly took long 2-pointers. This was partly because all of their big men were a lot more comfortable playing pick-and-pop than posting up or diving to the basket, but also because the perimeter players rarely had the green light to attack. Despite Philly's fearsome transition game, it was one of the league's slower-paced teams overall; in the half court, things slowed to a crawl.

Lowest Turnover Rate, 2011-12
Team TO Rate
Philadelphia 12.1
San Antonio 14.2
L.A. Clippers 14.4
Milwaukee 14.6
Golden State 14.6
League average 15.3

As a result, the Sixers set two records: One for the fewest turnovers, and another for the lowest free throw rate. The charts show just how far outside the norm they were in these two phases, in particular with turnovers: The difference between Philly and No. 2 San Antonio was larger than the margin between No. 2 and No. 25.

The Sixers were also 27th in 3-point attempts per field goal attempt, and that, combined with the lack of free throws, meant they had the league's worst secondary percentage. They were also a bad offensive rebounding team -- not a surprise, given that the bigs were always 20 feet from the basket -- and as a result they were just an average offensive team overall, despite the historic lack of turnovers.

Lowest Free Throw Rate, 2011-12
Team FTA/FGA
Philadelphia .217
Golden State .227
Houston .235
Dallas .246
Milwaukee .250
League average .276

Defensively, however, they did gangbusters. Philly cut off the 3-point line (only Chicago permitted fewer attempts) and held opponents to just 45.0 percent shooting on 2s. The Sixers also did strong work on the defensive glass, helped by the fact that two wing players (Iguodala and Evan Turner) posted epic defensive rebounding numbers for small forwards. Contrary to their reputation, the Sixers didn't force many turnovers; they were just a fundamentally solid team with a great wing stopper in Iguodala and no glaring weaknesses.

All that, plus Derrick Rose's knee injury, left the Sixers one game from a spot in the conference finals, but their lack of scoring and outside shooting came back to bite them in a winnable series against Boston.



Offseason Moves

Andrew BynumDavid Dow/NBAE/Getty ImagesPhilly made a splash by acquiring Andrew Bynum, but minor moves beforehand may slow its growth.

The trade for Bynum was a major coup, but the Sixers preceded that with a series of disastrous decisions that essentially undid all of the positives of the Bynum trade. They have an $80 million payroll, once you factor in the $16 million they're paying Elton Brand to play against them. Had there been an overarching plan rather than a series of one-off fire drills, they could have a better team, with a payroll between $60 million and $70 million.

Drafted Moe Harkless; traded the No. 45 pick and a future first to Miami for the No. 27 pick; draft Arnett Moultrie: I thought both of these picks were reaches, although Moultrie has enough size and athleticism that he could overcome his deficient ball skills and become a halfway decent big man, similar to what Lavoy Allen did last season.

But the Sixers traded a future first-round pick to Miami to move up 18 spots and grab Moultrie, and I'm still not sure why. It's a classic loan-shark trade, with an absolutely ginormous implied interest rate. The pick they obtained was No. 27 overall; the one they gave up is likely to be in the high teens a year later (it's top-14 protected each of the next three years), and in the meantime Miami still got to use Philly's second-rounder. Moultrie didn't solve any pressing roster need, either.

Re-signed Lavoy Allen for two years, $6 million: Here's the quiet, unrecognized, year-old stink bomb that was the catalyst for the disastrous moves below: Coming out of the lockout, Philly gave Allen, a second-round pick, a one-year deal with no team option for a second year. There was no reason to do this. No other second-round pick has a deal this player-friendly, and as the 50th overall pick, Allen had zero leverage.

So instead of having Allen at the second-year minimum for his sophomore season, he was a restricted free agent and the Sixers, being over the cap, had to dip into their midlevel exception to re-sign him. Like a butterfly flapping its wings to start a hurricane, Allen's deal led to the following ...

Amnestied Elton Brand, let Lou Williams go, signed Nick Young for one year, $5.6 million: This move was so bad on so many levels it's hard to know where to start. The Sixers got a sudden yen for Nick Young -- no, I don't know why either -- and decided they had to have him. But with half of their midlevel gone to Allen (see above), the only way to get Young was to create cap space.

And the only way to create cap space was to unload two of their most productive players from the previous season. Williams led the team in scoring and PER and is just 26, and ended up signing for reasonable money in Atlanta. Brand, though fading, was still quite useful, especially at the defensive end. Certainly, both players are better than Young by a substantial margin.

This actually cost the Sixers a bit of money rather than saving it, as they still owe Brand $16 million for this season after his amnesty auction only shaved $2.1 million of the price, and they still had to pay for a replacement. All so they could pay Young more money than Atlanta paid Williams.

Wait, it gets worse ...

Signed Kwame Brown for two years, $5.8 million: For reasons that aren't entirely clear, Philly has been obsessed with getting more size the past two years. The Sixers were the No. 3 defense and fifth in defensive rebound rate, but decided they needed to overpay for Kwame, a non-solution to a non-existent problem. He's not one of their 10 best players, but there's a worry he'll play anyway.

Let Jodie Meeks go, signed Royal Ivey for one year, minimum: Nobody has really commented on this, but the Sixers don't have a backup point guard this season and don't seem terribly troubled by the lack of one. The closest thing is Ivey, who is neither a backup nor a point guard; he is at best a fifth guard, and that's only on a really sunny day if the lighting is just right.

Traded nothing for Dorell Wright: Finally, some good news. Using their remaining cap space after the Brand amnesty, Philly took in Wright from Golden State. Hard to argue with the price, obviously. Technically it wasn't "nothing," as Philly gave up the rights to Edin Bavcic, a 2006 draftee who will never play in the league, but effectively Wright was free. He's a better player than people think, too. I'm not sure why he fell out of the Warriors' plans, but he can shoot 3s and is a decent defender.

Re-signed Spencer Hawes for two years, $13 million: This wasn't a bad price to pay for a starting center, especially because the Sixers didn't know at the time that they'd be getting Bynum. Although there's a fair amount of skepticism that Hawes can re-enact his outstanding play in the first month of last season, he's young enough to get better and he's a decent player even if you throw that month out.

Traded Iguodala, Nikola Vucevic, Moe Harkless and a future first-round pick for Jason Richardson and Andrew Bynum: This was the big move that should have put Philly in position to contend in the East, were it not for all of the other assorted silliness above. The Sixers parlayed a pretty good wing player into a dominant big man, and Richardson isn't dead weight, either.

Besides Iguodala, all they had to give up was Vucevic -- a quality backup center who had fallen out of the rotation by season's end -- and two late first-round draft picks (if you count Harkless as one of them). There's a risk here because Bynum is an unrestricted free agent after the season, but he's from the Philly area and has hinted that he'd like to stick around.



2012-13 Outlook

Andrew Bynum and Spencer HawesJesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE/Getty ImagesLed by their reshuffled frontcourt, the 76ers look to break into the top four in the top-heavy East.
Philadelphia is going to have to change its stripes significantly with Bynum in the fold, as last season's conservative pass-pick-and-cut approach is replaced by force-feeding Bynum on the block and surrounding him with shooters. The Sixers have more shooting at least, as Young, Richardson and Wright can all bust the 3-pointer, and Holiday may get more spot-up chances out of double-teams on Bynum.

As a result, this will be a higher turnover outfit -- post-ups invariably lead to more turnovers, especially ones involving Bynum and double-teams -- but also one that will draw fouls and make 3-pointers. Basically, it will look a lot more like a normal NBA offense.

Defensively, however, the Sixers also will change, and probably for the worse. Iguodala was an elite wing defender and Philly has nobody to fill that void. Nick Young and Richardson are bad defenders, and Turner and Wright are merely adequate. Bynum will swat away some mistakes in the middle, but on balance I'd be surprised if this is a top-three defense again.

Digging deeper, more questions emerge. The Sixers have high hopes for Turner, but I don't, and I think they should trade him before others catch on to what a hugely negative offensive player he is. They seem remarkably cavalier about the lack of a backup point guard, and if they really go into the season with Ivey (or some other replacement-level backup), that's a massive drop-off from what Williams gave them last season. Finally, I didn't include minutes for Brown in this projection because I only have him rated as their fifth-best big man, but if he plays ahead of Allen that will take them down a peg, too.

Subjectively, one must also consider Collins' history of self-combusting in his third season in a city; the new blood may prove helpful here.

Overall, however, the offseason moves amounted to running in place. The Sixers will be a different team, but I'm not sure it will be a better one. If they still had Brand and Williams rather than Young, Wright and Brown, then I'd be singing a different tune. But this group looks like a mid-tier, one-and-done outfit.

Prediction: 46-36, 3rd in Atlantic Division, 5th in Eastern Conference

 

[AVXL]

Can you post the Hawks forecast? Thanks