Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

[Skooby]

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/ncb...id/7766/7-foot-junior-has-rare-size-and-skill

7-foot junior has rare size and skill

On Saturday, I got my first look at Giorgos Papagiannis, the 7-foot Greek native who was already being projected as a potential one-and-done lottery pick before enrolling in Westtown School’s (Pa.) 2015 class to start the school year.

I’ll preface my own observations by noting that I’m a thorough believer in multiple evaluations. I’ve never believed you can truly have a grasp on a prospect until you’ve seen him multiple times in a variety of different settings, and so clearly I have a long way to go before having this guy pinpointed. Some things, however, were immediately clear.

First and foremost is his sheer size. I’ve seen Papagiannis listed from 6-foot-10 to 7-2 and virtually everywhere in between. Westtown is officially listing him at 7-1, and that mark passes the initial look test. Regardless, Papagiannis is a huge human being with tree trunk legs and fairly broad shoulders.

Pos RkStarsGradeHometown
NRWest Chester, PA
While he lacks the explosiveness of a typical prospect with this level of early hype, he isn’t a bad athlete for someone as big and broad as he is. It takes him a few steps to get going, but once he does, he runs the floor pretty well. He’ll need to improve his overall conditioning, tone up his core and then sculpt his upper body before adding muscle to a frame that has plenty of room to support it.

While his overall offensive production came in correlation to his opportunities (I counted three touches in the first half), his skill set was immediately obvious. He has soft hands, a beautiful touch that allegedly extends all the way to the 3-point arc (he didn’t attempt anything from that range Saturday) and the high release point to score over most defenders from the block.

He is a willing and talented passer who already handles double-teams with poise and sees the floor well enough to skip the ball from the block. His broad frame and high intellect will be assets in the pick-and-roll, but he’ll also be intriguing in dribble hand-off action because of how well he handles the ball for a guy his size.

His on-court demeanor was good, there were no signs of entitlement and it was clear that he was well-liked by his teammates. I was particularly impressed by the fact that he showed no outward frustration at his team’s inability to get him the ball in the first half, and he even looked to kick and repost when forced to come away from the basket to get it.

Defensively, he’s essentially being utilized as a one-man zone right now, guarding the basket even when the rest of his teammates are in man coverage. He clogs the lane to discourage penetration more frequently than he actually blocks shots at this point, but he definitely needs to improve his ability to finish possessions with defensive rebounds.

The bottom line is that he is obviously incredibly gifted with a truly unique combination of size and skill. While he’s virtually guaranteed to play at the highest levels of college basketball, exactly where he goes from there will be very much of his own making. And that’s a process that we and the vast majority of the basketball world will watch play out in the coming years.

 

[Skooby]

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/ncb...table-which-15-prospect-will-emerge-from-pack

Roundtable: Which '15 recruit will shine?

With 95 percent of the current ESPN 100 officially off the board following the early signing period, the focus of the recruiting world will likely begin to shift to the 2015 class sooner rather than later. We already know plenty about the class that currently populates our ESPN 60, but with the second half of their high school careers just beginning, the recruits are bound to make plenty of movement in the rankings over the next 18 months.

With an eye on recent late bloomers like Joel Embiid in the 2012 class and Myles Turner in 2013, we asked our team of RecruitingNation experts which ESPN 60 prospect will everyone be talking about a year from now.

Paul Biancardi: PF Carlton Bragg (Cleveland/Villa-Angelina-St. Joseph)

His progress has been steady over the years and he has moved up to the No. 10 spot in our rankings. Because Bragg is extremely talented and plays with a high motor, he separates himself from his peers. Athletically, he is bouncy with a long frame, and he uses those physical gifts to dominate opponents. As soon as his offensive skills translate into game action, he will become an even more difficult matchup for opposing forwards. He’s productive and full of potential with a chance to crack the top five next year.

Adam Finkelstein: C Skal Labissiere (Memphis, Tenn./Evangelical Christian)

In a class dominated by big men, Labissiere is just on the outside looking in at the truly elite posts in the 2015 class, but it might just be a matter of time before that begins to change. Right now, he’s best known for his shot-blocking prowess, but if you project him out a little bit, it’s very possible that his body starts taking on muscle at the same time that he begins to turn some raw offensive tools into more consistent production. If both click at the same time, he could very possibly assert himself among the top handful of prospects in the class.

Joel Francisco: F Chase Jeter (Las Vegas/Bishop Gorman)

The class of 2015 is coming together out west and there are a number of prospects who are displaying definite gains in their overall games. Some of the names people will become familiar with are 6-foot-3 Stephen Thompson Jr. (Torrance, Calif./Bishop Montgomery) and the 6-foot-9 Jeter. However, if the fall was any indication of things to come, look for Jeter, who's currently No. 37 in the ESPN 60, to make a significant jump in the next installment of the national rankings. His attention to detail at both ends of the floor in terms of skill and savvy should lead to a number of dominant performances during the regular season.

Reggie Rankin: C Doral Moore (Locust Grove, Ga./Luella)

I think this time next year everyone will be talking about the continued improvement, development and production of the 7-foot, 215-pound Moore, who's confidence is at an all-time high. Moore is more aggressive and has continued to impose his will on opponents. He was the most improved player that I saw this fall when he attended the USA developmental training camp. After starting the year unranked, Moore is currently No. 22 in the ESPN 60 after a great spring and summer. When Moore is in attack mode, he is tough to handle because he runs the floor well, is finishing better in traffic around the rim and is much more skilled from a shooting and touch standpoint than he gets credit for. He shoots his jump hook above the rim, and if he continues to add to his scoring package, he will have to be double-teamed, especially on the high school level. He also rebounds everything that touches his hands. He gets his share of blocked shots as well. Moore must work on not getting frustrated so easily and playing through his mistakes, but he has high-major, program-changing potential.

John Stovall: Giorgos Papagiannis (West Chester, Pa./Westtown) and Doral Moore (Locust Grove, Ga./Luella)

There are two key candidates: Papagiannis and Moore. Papagiannis is from Europe and one of the top five international prospects in the world. He is a skilled, 6-foot-10 post player who plays hard. If he plays on the summer circuit, he will blow up. He is potentially a top-five player in the class. Moore is on the same improvement track as Turner. He is nearly 7-foot and is a solid athlete. He got significantly better each time I saw him last summer through fall. Look for him to explode and become a consensus top-10 player.

 

[Jplaya2023]

http://insider.espn.go.com/college-...ion-committee-picked-playoff-college-football

 

[Jplaya2023]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...mes-paul-george-lead-first-quarter-mvp-ballot

 

[954UAlreadyknow]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...jay-bilas-debate-andrew-wiggins-jabari-parker

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10108293/tank-rank-won-lottery

 

[Skooby]

http://insider.espn.go.com/college-...ion-committee-picked-playoff-college-football

Projecting a mock 2013 playoff
As far as BCS finishes go, this season's was uneventful.

After the upset of No. 2 Ohio State in the Big Ten title game, Florida State and Auburn sat atop the polls and computer ratings Sunday and easily became the choices to play in the BCS championship game on Jan. 6. Unlike many past seasons, there was no drama and no debate on the day the last standings were released.

Next season, however, the decisions about which teams deserve to be part of a new four-team playoff will be left to a 13-person selection committee. And if that committee had been charged with the task of selecting four teams for a playoff this season, its work would have been far more disputed than the final edition of the BCS standings was.

We can all agree that Florida State and Auburn would both be part of a four-team playoff, had one existed in the 2013 season. But which teams would have joined them?

Before we look at the primary candidates for the other two playoff berths, let's review what we know about the selection committee and what it's supposed to do. We've been told that the committee will be asked to choose the four best teams in the nation, giving careful consideration to several factors: schedule strength, conference championships, head-to-head results, common opponents and key injuries. So, let's look at four other potential playoff teams -- Alabama, Baylor, Michigan State and Stanford -- and how they stack up in these areas.

Schedule strength
There are many different ways to calculate schedule strength, and each of the BCS computers has its own method. ESPN Stats & Info also has a version. I've been told that the selection committee is unlikely to have one standard set of schedule rankings that will be distributed to all members, so it'll be up to each person to interpret schedule difficulty.

If you look at a cross section of the schedule rankings, you'll see that twice-beaten Stanford played, by far, the strongest schedule among this group of teams (approximately fifth-best in the nation on average). Of the one-loss teams, Alabama's schedule (average ranking in the low 40s) is slightly tougher than Michigan State's (average in the upper 40s), while Baylor's schedule is the weakest (average around 60).

Conference championships
All of these teams are outright conference champions except for Alabama, which lost on the final play of the game to eventual SEC champ Auburn.

Head-to-head results
There were no head-to-head meetings within this group.

Common opponents
The only shared opponent within this group was Notre Dame, which beat Michigan State 17-13 and lost at Stanford 27-20. Because Michigan State lost a close game on the road and Stanford won a close game at home, this would probably be considered only slightly in the Cardinal's favor.

Key injuries

These only matter to the committee if a key player was present during a defining win but has since been lost for the season, or if a player was missing in a loss (or other poor performance) but has since returned to the lineup. And, most of the time, injuries won't be given major consideration unless the injured player is the starting quarterback or team MVP.

Baylor did have a few offensive starters missing for its loss to Oklahoma State, but the impact is difficult to quantify because of the lopsided nature of the defeat (the Bears lost 49-17). Plus, starting left tackle Spencer Drango and wideout Tevin Reese still haven't returned to the lineup, and the offense has continued to struggle (relatively speaking) without them, possibly making these injuries more of a negative than an extenuating circumstance for a loss.

Overall outlook
What have these five factors told us? If you take them at face value, they really help Stanford's case and hurt Baylor's. But here's the deal: We can't be completely sure if these factors will really matter on a year-to-year basis.

I've been told that the committee will not assign any specific value to these factors, and nothing prevents any committee member from placing equal or greater value on some other factor, such as number of losses. The factors are not criteria. They are simply meant to be talking points -- items they want to be sure committee members are all aware of before making their respective decisions. In fact, nothing is stopping anyone on the committee from ignoring all of the factors and simply using the eye test.

In the grand scheme of things, this means the selection committee could be even more unpredictable than the BCS formula. There may not be consistency from one year to the next as to why one team gets in and another doesn't. And because the selection committee membership will have regular turnover due to staggered three-year terms, it's doubtful that a trend for favoring a certain type of team profile will ever develop. This unpredictability seems sure to provide a dramatic "Announcement Sunday" every year, which is something even the drama-filled BCS couldn't offer. But the unpredictability could also make the committee selections even more maddening and controversial than the BCS formula.

With all of that said, here is how I would project the playoff field working out for this season:

No. 1 Florida State Seminoles versus No. 4 Michigan State Spartans
FSU would be the No. 1 seed, not only because it's the only undefeated team, but also because of its dominance. Michigan State would likely be the last team in the playoff thanks to its momentum (nine straight wins, all by double digits) and tremendous defense.

No. 2 Auburn Tigers versus No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide
The Tigers would be the No. 2 seed based on their SEC title and the fact that they closed the season with two high-quality wins, giving them the strongest résumé among the one-loss teams. Alabama would be the No. 3 seed because of its dominance against most of its SEC schedule, along with a high-quality loss.

Stanford, I believe, would be the first team out. While the Cardinal have a stellar profile, they would likely be penalized for having two losses. A great argument could be made that the difficulty of their schedule justifies the second loss, and I'm sure some committee members would take that position. At the end of the day, though, this is a human committee, and until I see evidence to the contrary, I'll continue to believe that humans are more influenced by the loss column than any other factor when it comes to ranking college football teams.

Baylor would have a hard time getting past the fact that it didn't look nearly as impressive in its last three games as it did in the first nine. And while injuries explain some of that, the reality is that two of those key injured players still haven't returned, so the committee has to look at the most recent games as a strong indicator of Baylor's team. Ohio State, by the way, would also be in this conversation, but the overall weakness of its schedule along with narrow wins versus Northwestern and Michigan would make the Buckeyes' case difficult to argue against the others.

 

[Skooby]

Other major bowl matchups
The final job for the selection committee would then be to create the matchups for the other four major bowls: Fiesta, Orange, Cotton and Chick-fil-A (the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl will host the first semifinals in 2014). For this purpose, the committee will have the teams ranked beyond the top four, probably all the way through 25. Most of the time, however, the 12 spots won't be filled by the top 12 teams. The champions of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC will always play in a major game, and whenever one of those teams is displaced from its contractual location to play in a semifinal game, the bowl that lost the semifinal team will be able to replace it with the next-best team from the same conference. Also, the highest-ranked champion from the group featuring the American Athletic, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt is also guaranteed a spot. This season, that would be UCF.

Here's how I'd project the bowl matchups shaking out if next year's system were in place for this season:

• Sugar Bowl: No. 1 Florida State versus No. 4 Michigan State (national semifinal)
• Rose Bowl: No. 2 Auburn versus No. 3 Alabama (national semifinal)
• Orange Bowl: No. 7 Ohio State versus No. 12 Clemson
• Fiesta Bowl: No. 5 Stanford versus No. 15 UCF
• Cotton Bowl: No. 6 Baylor versus No. 8 Missouri
• Chick-fil-A Bowl: No. 9 South Carolina versus No. 10 Oregon

Because the Sugar Bowl and Rose Bowl are semifinal sites, and three of the four semifinalists are from the SEC and Big Ten, the only bowl that needs to replace a lost champion would be the Orange (losing Florida State). Therefore, the committee's first step would be to place No. 12 Clemson (the next-highest ACC team) in the Orange. From there, No. 5 Stanford (Pac-12 champ) goes to the Fiesta, and No. 6 Baylor (Big 12 champ) goes to the Cotton. Those are easy.

That brings us to No. 7 Ohio State. The Orange Bowl's deal is that it will put an ACC team against an opponent from among the Big Ten, SEC and Notre Dame. The Buckeyes are the first team up from that group, so they go to the Orange Bowl to play Clemson. The next team is No. 8 Missouri, which fits well geographically with the Cotton, so the Tigers go there to face Baylor. Then comes No. 9 South Carolina, which is a short drive from Atlanta and the Chick-fil-A Bowl.

Next is No. 10 Oregon. While the nearest opening is in the Fiesta, the committee is not going to create a rematch of Oregon and Stanford, so the Ducks must be shipped elsewhere. And the only other team left on the board is UCF, which is close to Atlanta but already played South Carolina in the regular season. That makes this an easy switch. Oregon goes to Atlanta to face South Carolina while UCF goes to Glendale to play Stanford.

In a nutshell, this is how the process will work. The major bowls are no longer allowed to select the teams they prefer based on program prestige, ticket sales or TV ratings. The committee simply creates the matchups that work best for the greater good of the overall product. And if it always plays out that way in practical application, then it's hard to believe this system won't be better than what the BCS gave us.

 

[Skooby]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...mes-paul-george-lead-first-quarter-mvp-ballot

MVP leaders at NBA's quarter pole
Well, that first quarter blew by quickly, didn't it?
Believe it or not, we reached the NBA season's one-quarter mark Tuesday, with 309 of the season's 1,230 games (25.1 percent) in the books. With that in mind, let's take the temperature of the jam-packed MVP race, which features some usual suspects as well as some party crashers (hello, Paul George).
Here's how I'd fill out my (unofficial) ballot if we were handing out the awards Tuesday. In other words, this is not a prediction of how I think the voting will go at season's end. In reality, the MVP award usually ends up being the BPOTBT award (Best Player On The Best Team) with almost no recognition for great players with bad supporting casts. You won't find that bias here.
Let's get to it.

1. LeBron James, Miami Heat
News flash: The best player on Earth is also the Most Valuable Player. Stick this guy on any team in the league and it will instantly join the title conversation. That's how good he is. LeBron ranks first in player efficiency rating (PER), estimated wins added (EWA), win shares (WS), wins above replacement player (WARP) and just about any advanced stats acronym out there.
That's because his shot efficiency is off the charts -- even by his lofty standards. By shooting 59.4 percent from the floor, 44.4 percent on 3s and 78.7 percent from the line, he's flirting with the 60-40-80 shooting club, which has a member list that is exactly zero names long. (Sorry, Amir, 39 minutes just won't cut it). Put it all together and you'll find that James' true shooting percentage of 68.3 percent is the highest we've ever seen among players with at least 15 field goal attempts per game. James ranks No. 1 among 1,611 player-seasons on record (next highest is Charles Barkley at 66.5 percent in 1987-88).

He's not perfect, however. The knock on James' résumé is that his other per-minute numbers are down across the board: his rebounds, assists, steals and blocks have all taken a dip this season. But that's like complaining that the December weather in South Beach has been disappointing because the thermostat reads 80 degrees rather than the normal 85. Still, James is the only NBA player who is averaging at least 25 points, six rebounds and six assists this season. Though he's pacing himself on the defensive end since Dwyane Wade is missing games and his back is acting up, James' extraterrestrial efficiency gives him the inside track on my quarter-pole MVP.
2. Paul George, Indiana Pacers
Before the season, I predicted this would finally be the year that Kevin Durant wins his first MVP award. The thinking was that Durant's starring in a non-glamour market would captivate voters who could be susceptible to LeBoredom and general disenchantment with the great-but-not-all-time-great Miami Heat. It's more fun to root for the underdog and all that.
But because the Pacers have gotten off to an 18-3 start, it might be Paul George, not Durant, who ends up becoming the beneficiary of potential Heat exhaustion. In just a two-year span, George has somehow catapulted from being a starting role player to a scoring title contender. That's bonkers. You rarely see a player raise his usage rate from 19.3 percent (George's rate in 2011-12) to his current level of 29.2 percent in just two seasons. What's even more rare is that George has watched his shot efficiency skyrocket, as well. Those two metrics shouldn't soar together. But alas, George is a freak.

George doesn't rival James or Durant in sheer productivity (George ranks just eighth in PER). But George makes headway on the defensive end, which isn't covered that well in the box score. That said, get this: According to 82games.com, George has held his counterpart at small forward to a measly 9.7 PER this season, a rate that would have been the lowest in the league last season. The difficulty here is parsing between George's defensive acumen and Roy Hibbert's. Would George be this good defensively without Hibbert behind him? Perhaps a better question -- would James, if he had Hibbert?
3. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
In five games this month, Durant is averaging 31.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists, a pair of blocks and a pair of steals along with 55.2 FG/47.4 3PT/91.4 FT shooting splits. His PER so far this month: 36.1 -- best in the NBA. Yeah, he's pretty good at this basketball thing. It seems silly to rank Durant third on an MVP list, but I'd feel worse slotting James and George this low, which says more about the competition than it does about Durant.
As someone who has finished second to James in the MVP voting three of the last four seasons, Durant has sharpened elements in his game, most notably in the passing department: He's averaging a career-high five dimes a game -- almost double his rate just three seasons ago. And this isn't a product of Durant's making the most of Westbrook's absence early in the season. Durant's assist rate has actually climbed when he's next to Westbrook on the floor compared to when Westbrook sits, according to NBA.com.
Since we're splitting hairs here, Durant's improvements on the defensive end have been impressive -- hey Scott Brooks, KD has been more than capable defending 4s, so please do that more -- but not quite enough to put him higher on this list. For what it's worth, Durant's Synergy defensive metrics (43 percentile) pale in comparison to James' (87th percentile) and George's (63 percentile). My eyes tell me that Durant has worked his way into the "above average" category defensively, but he's not yet a stopper like James and George. Hey, you have to find a tiebreaker somewhere.

4. Chris Paul, Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers are still a work in progress. Since arriving on the scene this summer, Doc Rivers has had his hands full on the defensive end, especially with the personnel in the frontcourt. And the offense has taken a hit as Willie Green starts in sharpshooter J.J. Redikk's place since the Duke product broke his hand.

But Chris Paul still is working his magic through the haze as his PER ranks in the top five (27). He remains the game's maestro in the pick-and-roll and manufactures more shots for others than anybody in the league. SportVU data informs us that Paul leads the league by far in assist opportunities per game (21.8) and creates more than double the assist opportunities his backup Darren Collison creates on a per-36 minute basis (22.4 versus 9.8). Knowing this, it's no surprise that the Clippers' high-powered offense turns to mush when he steps off the floor.

Even though Paul's assist rate is approaching all-time heights, he is struggling with his long-range jumper so far this season. He is shooting 31.2 percent from downtown, which continues a five-season percentage decline from 3-point land. However, the struggles with his shot haven't kept him from leading the league in points created (via score or assist) at 45.1 points per game. If he sharpens that 3-point shot, Paul could find his name atop the list before long.

 

[Skooby]

5. Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
Take LaMarcus Aldridge's scoring, Dwight Howard's rebounding, Marc Gasol's passing and Redikk's 3-point shooting, and what do you get? Kevin Love. The 25-year-old has entered his prime with these season averages: 23.7 points, 13.6 rebounds, 4.1 assists while shooting above average from downtown. Yes, the NBA's leading rebounder also makes more than two 3-pointers per game. That's absurd.
What's also absurd is that people still gripe that he's not a great defender and therefore doesn't belong in this discussion. Perfection is apparently the standard. Love is a legitimate MVP candidate even if his team hovers around .500. Want to know why? Because the Timberwolves are getting outscored by 19.1 points per 100 possessions with Love off the floor, according to NBA.com data. I reiterate: 19.1 points. That's horrible. To put that in perspective, the Utah Jazz are looking at a minus-11.9 differential right now.
The Timberwolves are paper-thin in the frontcourt, and Ricky Rubio would still look to pass in a game of one-on-one. But these factors are out of Love's control and shouldn't undermine his MVP candidacy. Rather than pointing to the Timberwolves' lukewarm record, realize that they'd be an absolute mess without Love's wide-ranging talents. That's pure value.

One-line apologies to (in alphabetical order):

LaMarcus Aldridge: Great player finally equipped with an equally good supporting cast.
Stephen Curry: Keep launching more 3s and then we can talk.
Anthony Davis: Get well soon.
Andre Drummond: Shoot better than 40 percent from the line and defend pick-and-rolls?
Dirk Nowitzki: Welcome back, big guy.

 

[Skooby]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...jay-bilas-debate-andrew-wiggins-jabari-parker

Who's No. 1? Wiggins or Parker?
1. Who goes No. 1 in the 2014 NBA draft?
Chad Ford: Andrew Wiggins hasn't been the best player, nor the best freshman in college basketball this season. But he has the highest ceiling of any player in the game right now thanks to a lethal combination of elite physical tools and a well-rounded game.
I know there is a lot of hand-wringing over his tendency to not force the action, but KU fans got a great glimpse on Saturday of what he can do when Bill Self tells him to go get buckets. There aren't five players his size in the NBA who could make several of the moves and plays he made against Colorado. Many scouts believe he has similar abilities and potential to Indiana's Paul George.
Jay Bilas: Overall, the best player and prospect in this draft is Duke's Jabari Parker. He fits the physical profile with size for position, length and very good athleticism, and he is the most complete and skilled of this class. Parker can play all over the floor, facing up and using ball screens or with his back to the basket. He has a legit jump shot with range, and he can deck it and get to the rim and finish above it. Parker can defend, although he has been picking his spots. Parker has been playing out of position, thereby causing automatic matchup problems, but he has benefited from that circumstance, as well.
Parker is also not in great condition yet, but will be again. Kentucky's Julius Randle is more physically dominant and a better rebounder and Kansas' Andrew Wiggins is more athletic and better in transition. Wiggins is far better as a prospect than many give him credit for, and will be right there with Parker by the end of the season. Wiggins will improve his body, and is a better defender than Parker, but Parker is the best total package, now and for the future.

2. How does "surrounding cast" impact evaluating players?

Ford: A lot. For example, how many more easy buckets would Wiggins get if he had a decent point guard to set him up occasionally? How would Kentucky's James Young or Andrew Harrison look if either was the focal point of the offense instead of being background noise around Randle? Remember, we also must factor in coaching, pace and strength of schedule, etc. In other words, evaluating NBA prospects isn't as easy as it looks.
Bilas: I believe you always have to evaluate and understand the circumstances and environment of each player to help determine his ability level and his ceiling. Some players play their entire college careers out of position, playing a certain role or deferring to another outstanding prospect, yet that player may be able to step out of that role into a new one, and contribute positively to a really good NBA team. After the superstar talents, most NBA players are in the league because they have one NBA skill, like the ability to shoot it with accuracy and consistency, to rebound, or to defend multiple positions.
Those "success pieces" at the NBA level can be spotted whether a prospect has a supporting cast or not. Also, some outstanding NBA players were in the supporting cast in college, and were identified as prospects who could help an NBA team win. So, talent evaluators have to look at every aspect of every good player, and take all circumstances into consideration.

3. Joel Embiid No. 1? Is his case helped by a dearth of bigs?
Ford: Big time. So few bigs in the draft? How about so few legitimate bigs in the NBA? Embiid has the mobility and size of a young Hakeem Olajuwon, and players with that set of tools don't come along very often. Embiid has a long way to go to get to that level, but the basic building blocks are there and frankly, he's been a lot better a lot sooner than anyone expected. It will take a very gutsy GM to take Embiid ahead of Wiggins, Randle or Parker. However, size rises as we get closer to the draft, and based on my intel, he'll get serious consideration for the No. 1 pick.
Bilas: Embiid is that good. He has tools that very few big man prospects have, with his athleticism, agility and touch. Kansas coach Bill Self likened Embiid to the 18-year-old version of Hakeem Olajuwon, and believes that Embiid has the ability to mature into a terrific college and professional player. I have watched Embiid in practices and games, and he certainly has the chance to be a great player. He can block shots, rebound and has the hands and feet to develop a legit low post game. Embiid could be a monster at the next level.

4. Who is your sleeper in the NBA draft?
Ford: Right now, it's UCLA's Zach LaVine. He was ranked in the 50s in his recruiting class coming out of high school, and doesn't start for UCLA. But it's so rare to see the combination of length, explosive athletic ability and shooting range that LaVine has shown this season. He's instant offense off the bench, and if you paid attention to him at all in high school, you can see the tools are there for him to be a point guard at the next level.
UCLA head coach Steve Alford doesn't ask him to play the point now -- he has his son coming off the bench to fill that role -- but the best scouts know how to project players going forward. Their scouting report isn't just about what a guy is currently doing, it's about what he has the tools to do in a different environment. And LaVine projects very, very high according to many of the best in the business. I could see him in the top six or seven by draft night.
Bilas: He might not even choose to declare himself eligible for the 2014 draft, but I have been impressed by the play and potential of 6-foot-6 freshman swingman Zach LaVine of UCLA. LaVine is a spectacular athlete who can run, get to the rim and finish through contact around the basket. He has a good stroke, and can hit from range. After nine games, LaVine was averaging 14.2 points and 2.1 assists while shooting better than 60 percent on his field goals and 50 percent on 3-point attempts.
LaVine needs to diversify his game and mature physically, but he has the tools to be an NBA point guard who can defend and play in transition. Of those tools, LaVine's athleticism and finishing ability set him apart. As he gets stronger, he will be a major asset as a defender as well. Another guy to keep an eye on is 6-3 guard Elfrid Payton of Louisiana-Lafayette. He is super quick, can defend and is really good in transition.

5. After Randle, what's your take on UK's other NBA prospects?
Ford: Slightly disappointing. Given the hype, it was going to be hard to live up expectations, and I think Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist both spoiled us terribly (but then again, they had rough spots in the early going).

Of the rest of the freshmen, I think James Young probably has the most NBA potential right now, though he struggled with his jumper up until the Baylor game. Sophomore Willie Cauley-Stein is the other one to watch. After a slow start, he's started to come on. He has NBA size and athletic ability. If he starts showing more offensive abilities, he's going to be taken early.
Bilas: There are a ton of NBA prospects on this Kentucky team. While this group of players may not be quite as good as John Calipari's crop of NBA draftees in 2010 or 2012, there is talent here. Some put Willie Cauley-Stein next, because he is such a long and athletic shot-blocker, rebounder and transition big man. Cauley-Stein will be a high pick despite his lack of offensive skill or productivity. I put James Young just behind Randle. Young is the best shooter and scorer, and he will be able to score points in the NBA. He needs to improve his rebounding and defense, but Young scores so easily and shoots with such range that he'll be coveted by NBA teams.
Next for me would be Andrew Harrison. He is a point guard with size and the ability to get into the lane and attack the rim, but he is not a natural point, and has to learn how to manage the game and to distribute the ball. His twin brother, Aaron Harrison, is the better shooter of the two and has shown the ability to handle the ball well and defend just as well. Dakari Johnson is big, has really good hands and feet and has a terrific touch, but he does not change ends, and he is not ready for the big stage yet. Marcus Lee also has size, shot-blocking and athletic ability, but needs to get stronger and develop a reliable post game. Randle isn't the only NBA player on the Kentucky roster, but he is by far the best.

 

[Skooby]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/10108293/tank-rank-won-lottery

What if they won the draft lottery?

For the past month, our primary focus in Tank Rank has been on the race, on the court, for the No. 1 pick.

But what would each team do if it actually won the 2014 NBA draft lottery? It's ridiculously early to ask that question -- most teams have five to six players they are seriously considering with the No. 1 pick. But if they had to decide today ... ?

Here's our weekly look at where the 10 worst teams in the NBA stand in their quest for the No. 1 pick in the draft.

1. Milwaukee Bucks | Status: Trying | Record: 4-16 (past week: 1-3)
The Bucks have plenty of athletes in the frontcourt, but they really lack a go-to scorer who can demand a double-team in the post. While John Henson is playing well for them, he's not an ideal partner on the front line next to Larry Sanders. Kentucky's Julius Randle seems like the most obvious fit for the Bucks. Pair him with Sanders on one side and rookie Giannis Antetokounmpo on the other, and the Bucks will be well on their way to a full, exciting rebuild.
(Last week: 1

)
2. Utah Jazz | Status: Tanking | Record: 4-18 (past week: 1-3)
The Jazz's biggest hole is at small forward. The two guys who get the most time there, Marvin Williams and Richard Jefferson, are both free agents this summer. But even if that wasn't the biggest need, it's hard to think of any other team in the league that would be a better fit for Duke's Jabari Parker. Parker's versatile, aggressive game would be a godsend to the Jazz. And with Parker the best Mormon basketball player since Danny Ainge, there's a good chance the Jazz could keep him long term.
(Last week: 2

)

3. Philadelphia 76ers | Status: Tanking | Record: 7-14 (past week: 1-2)
The Sixers are obviously happy with Michael Carter-Williams at the point. And when Nerlens Noel gets healthy, he has a chance to be a defensive anchor in the middle. So a wing or a low-post scorer would make the most sense. The early intel is that the 76ers are enamored with Kansas' Andrew Wiggins. If Wiggins had a decent point guard to set him up -- point guard play has been a weakness for the Jayhawks this season -- he's got a chance to have a Paul George-type leap from college to the NBA.
(Last week: 4

)
4. Toronto Raptors | Status: Tanking | Record: 7-12 (past week: 1-2)
The Raptors threw their hats into the tanking ring on Sunday when they shipped Rudy Gay to the Kings. You could see this one coming for a while. The Raptors desperately wanted to rid themselves of Gay's contract. If there is a team that Andrew Wiggins is a lock for, it's the Raptors. The NBA's only Canadian team is hungry to land one of its own and Wiggins would be the ultimate prize. He isn't a fit the way the current roster is constructed, but general manager Masai Ujiri would make quick work of that.
(Last week: 8

)
5. Orlando Magic | Status: Tanking | Record: 6-14 (past week: 0-4)
The Magic were bummed when Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart decided to return for his sophomore season. If they get the No. 1 pick, would they take Smart?
I'm inclined to say yes, though sources in Orlando say they are bullish that Victor Oladipo could be a point guard in the NBA, and his success could free them to take a player with more upside, such as Andrew Wiggins.
(Last week: 6

)
6. Cleveland Cavaliers | Status: Trying | Record: 7-13 (past week: 2-1)
If GM Chris Grant has a job going in to next summer -- and given owner Dan Gilbert's desire to make the playoffs this season, Grant may not -- then you can expect the unexpected. Grant has made several unorthodox picks, and from what I gather, Cleveland might do it again.
The Cavs are one of the teams beating the Joel Embiid drum. The Cameroon big man has drawn comparisons to Hakeem Olajuwon, and the Cavs believe that ultimately, Andrew Bynum won't be their long-term answer in the middle.

(Last week: 3

)


7. Sacramento Kings | Status: Rebuilding | Record: 5-13 (past week: 1-2)
The Kings made a major move Sunday, trading away a number of spare parts for Rudy Gay. It was their second big trade in as many weeks and signaled that they're attempting to rebuild now. Gay is clearly an upgrade, but is he good enough to put them in the hunt for a playoff spot in the West?
I don't think so. I see Sacramento as a legitimate landing spot for Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart. His toughness and ability to lead could immediately turn the fortunes in Sacramento. Dante Exum is another real possibility.

(Last week: 5

)
8. Charlotte Bobcats | Status: Trying | Record: 9-11 (past week: 1-1)
The Bobcats have made a mess of the draft in recent years. Could they bumble this one, too? I don't think so. I'm hearing Michael Jordan is an Andrew Wiggins guy, though there's a soft spot in the organization for Australia's Dante Exum.

(Last week: 9

)
9. Boston Celtics | Status: Tank-building | Record: 10-12 (past week: 3-0)
Ainge has been this draft class' biggest skeptic. And if the Celtics keep winning like this, they won't be on this list much longer. But if somehow they manage to end up with the No. 1 pick, I hear Ainge would have a hard time passing on Jabari Parker here.

(Last week: 7

)

10. Chicago Bulls | Status: Trying? | Record: 8-10 (past week: 1-2)

With Luol Deng heading into free agency this summer and Carlos Boozer a possible amnesty candidate, the Bulls' biggest needs will be at the 3 and the 4. Parker would be a worthy replacement for Deng, and Randle can do many of the things Boozer can. Could be a toss-up.

(Last week: 10

)

KEY
Tanking: The team's front office has deliberately weakened the team in an attempt to lose as many games as possible.
Tank-building: The space that lies somewhere between the ideas of tanking and rebuilding.
Rebuilding: The team's front office didn't go out of its way to sign or trade for quality players this summer, but it was less an attempt to lose games than it was an opportunity to give young players already on the roster a chance to prove themselves.
Trying: The team's front office went out of its way over the summer to strengthen the roster in an attempt to make the playoffs. The team just isn't very good.

 

[Jplaya2023]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...-candidates?addata=2009_insdr_mod_nba_xxx_xxx

 

[Skooby]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...-candidates?addata=2009_insdr_mod_nba_xxx_xxx

11 most interesting trade targets
Looking for a shooting big, wing defender or high-volume scorer?

The seven-player trade sending Rudy Gay to the Sacramento Kings, expected to be finalized Monday, marked the unofficial beginning of the NBA's holiday shopping season. With most players signed this summer eligible to be traded starting a week from Sunday, expect the market to heat up for teams looking to shake things up a quarter of the way through the season.

Let's take a look at 11 of the most interesting names that could potentially be dealt between now and the Feb. 20 trade deadline.

Paul Millsap | PF | Atlanta Hawks

Millsap is the most important player carrying the Dec. 15 restriction. Since the Hawks have the inside track on the third seed in the Eastern Conference, they might hang on to Millsap as half of their underrated frontcourt alongside Al Horford. But with Atlanta also thinking long term, GM Danny Ferry would have to consider a deal that would net the Hawks a quality draft pick or a quality center to pair with Horford. (Omer Asik, perhaps?) Millsap has only enhanced his value by making a career-high 15 3-pointers already this season.


Luol Deng | SF | Chicago Bulls

The next few months could determine if the Bulls are buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. If they decide to make Deng available, there will be plenty of suitors for a two-time All-Star who doubles as an expiring contract. TheCleveland Cavaliers, for example, might see Deng as a low-risk option who allows them to compete for a playoff spot this season while maintaining the ability to change directions next summer.


Dion Waiters | SG | Cleveland Cavaliers

Speaking of the Cavaliers, their second-year shooting guard could be on the move after a locker room argument with Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson, as reported by Insider's Chris Broussard. The Cavaliers would be selling low on Waiters, who lost his starting job around the same time as the incident. He's been more effective as a reserve, improving his scoring average from 13.3 PPG to 15.4 in nearly identical minutes, which might foretell his future as a volume scorer off the bench.


Greg Monroe | F/C | Detroit Pistons

Sunday's loss to the Miami Heat snapped a four-game Detroit win streak, which included a victory at Miami last week. During the winning streak, the Pistons' starting frontcourt of Monroe, Andre Drummond and Josh Smith was plus-37 together in 78 minutes, a big change from getting outscored by 4.6 points per 48 minutes through November according to NBA.com/stats. So there are signs the big lineup might be coming together, especially at the defensive end. If not, Monroe appears to be the most likely candidate to be dealt before he hits restricted free agency next summer.


Omer Asik | C | Houston Rockets

At this point, it's a question of when and not if Asik will be dealt. Our Marc Stein reported Friday that the Rockets are in a hurry to make a trade by Dec. 19 so they can repackage players they acquire before the deadline. I broke down players Houston could get for Asik last month. Since then, Terrence Jones' solid play as a starter (his net rating of plus-11.0 points per 100 possessions on the floor is second to Omri Casspi on the team) has made it more reasonable that the Rockets might target a quality wing defender rather than a stretch 4. Ideally, the player Houston ultimately acquires would be able to fill both roles.


Zach Randolph | PF | Memphis Grizzlies

With each loss, the Grizzlies find themselves further out of the West playoff picture. Their point differential now ranks 14th in the conference, ahead of only the lowly Utah Jazz. While that will surely change when Marc Gasol returns from his sprained MCL, Memphis might fall too far behind to have a realistic chance of catching up. Already, the Hollinger Playoff Odds have them reaching the postseason less than 10 percent of the time. If this season is lost, the Grizzlies have to seriously consider moving Randolph, who is 32 and has one season beyond this on his contract. Expect his name to pop up in rumors soon.


Iman Shumpert | G/F | New York Knicks

With this season's Knicks plumbing new depths in Sunday's 41-point loss to the Boston Celtics, a shakeup is a real possibility and Shumpert is the team's most attractive trade asset short of an improbable Carmelo Anthony deal. For all the hand-wringing over Shumpert's disappointing season, his PER is essentially identical to what he posted last season, and similar to his rookie campaign. Most likely, this is what Shumpert is: an above-average wing defender who can make open 3s but shouldn't be asked to do too much on offense.


Spencer Hawes | C | Philadelphia 76ers

In an era of big men who can shoot, Hawes has set himself apart this season with his prolific long-range bombing. His 1.8 3-pointers per game (on fine 43.8 percent shooting) would be the second highest average for a 7-footer in NBA history, trailing only Dirk Nowitzki's 2002-03 campaign. (Here's the complete Nowitzki-heavy leaderboard from Basketball-Reference.com.) The Sixers are motivated to move Hawes, who could help a contender as a third big man, but finding a team with the right combination of expiring contracts and first-round picks is tricky.

 

[Skooby]

Evan Turner | SG | Philadelphia 76ers

My favorite devious theory of the nascent campaign came from a reader in one of my chats who asked if the Sixers were playing at the league's fastest pace in order to boost the per-game stats of players they hoped to trade. In a related story, Turner is averaging 20.5 points per game, putting him 22nd in the league. Turner has been more efficient too, making a career-high 49.7 percent of his 2-point attempts. The fast pace has also translated into more easy opportunities for him. According to Synergy Sports Technology, 18.9 of Turner's shots have come in transition, up from 12.6 percent last season.

DeMar DeRozan | SG | Toronto Raptors

DeRozan's situation is more interesting. Toronto doesn't have to move the 24-year-old, who's in the midst of the best season of his career. But if GM Masai Ujiri finds another team values DeRozan's volume scoring more than he does, the Raptors could move on without any of their perimeter starters from opening night.

Kyle Lowry | PG | Toronto Raptors

As Stein reported Sunday night, the Raptors aren't finished dealing after moving Gay. Lowry is likely to be next, now that Toronto has a replacement on hand in newcomer Greivis Vasquez. At $6.2 million in the final season of his contract, Lowry is a cost-effective option for teams looking to solidify the point guard position, and the Raptors can target a late first-round pick or equivalent return.

 

[Sensitive Blake Griffin]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...s-paul-george-james-harden-top-players-age-25