Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)
- Thread starter the cool
- Start date
Yep thanks breh
Who's in line for East All-Star nod?
The voting results of the first round of the NBA's popularity contest -- err, the All-Star Game fan vote -- drop on Thursday, so if you haven't given 10 shout-outs to your favorite player on Instagram, better get on that. Every hashtag counts.
Given how horrible the Eastern Conference has been this season -- its interconference record of 32-77 (.293) remains the lowest since the NBA/ABA merger -- some have half-seriously argued that there shouldn't be an Eastern Conference squad at all. There's some truth to the enormous talent gap. So far, just seven East players rank in the top 20 on the estimated wins added (EWA) leaderboard.
Alas, there will be an East squad after all. The single most popular question I received in my weekly chat on Monday was some version of "Is [insert East Player here] an All-Star this season?" Perhaps an All-Star appearance provides some solace for fan bases "cheering" on teams in the tank.
So who has earned an East spot so far?
Judging from their 2013-14 production up to this point, here are my picks for the starters, reserves and some names to watch as the All-Star Game approaches. These aren't lifetime achievement awards, so there's little regard for career performance.
I'm abiding by the league's rules to pick three frontcourt players along with two backcourt players. I'll also follow the rules by filling out the rest of the roster with seven players of my choice, regardless of position. Remember, fans select the starters and the rest of the reserves are named by the Eastern Conference coaches.
On with the names ...
BACKCOURT ALL-STARS
Starters
John Wall, Washington Wizards
With Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo out with knee injuries, Wall gets the nod somewhat by default, but he probably deserves an All-Star bid anyway. His shiny new 3-point shot has vaulted his speedy game to a 20.9 player efficiency rating, which leads all East point guards. And then there's this: According to NBA.com, the Wizards are a preposterous 29.7 points per 100 possessions better with Wall on the floor than with him on the bench. All-Star starter and a franchise savior.
Arron Afflalo, Orlando Magic
"Spellcheck" could be warming this seat for incumbent starter Dwyane Wade, but the Orlando 2-guard's production has been absolutely stellar so far this season. Put it this way: Wade and Afflalo have nearly identical PERs but Afflalo has sustained that level for 300 more minutes than Wade. That's no small thing. Afflalo's scoring 21.6 points per game thanks to lights-out shooting from deep (43.6 percent) along with a career-high 18.9 percent assist rate. Unlike Wade, Afflalo's a super conservative defender, but his body of work has been more impressive than Wade's. Wade will almost certainly start, but if this was based on merit, Afflalo could be going to New Orleans as a starter.
Reserves
Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
A lesser Wade is still better than most. For the first time since his rookie season, Wade's on target to finish beneath the 20 points per game threshold. Wade's actually averaging more minutes than he did in 2011-12, when he put up 22.1 points per game, but he just hasn't been getting nearly enough to the line with his more conservative approach, and his turnover rate has skyrocketed. Chew on this stat: Wade has played just 539 minutes so far, which is almost equal to the time he's sat on the Heat bench (517 minutes).
Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks
For a while, Teague might have been the favorite to start over Wall, but after a scorching start, Teague's fallen back to Earth a bit over the last couple of weeks. The key here is that Teague has finally figured out how to draw fouls -- an essential ingredient to stardom -- as he's averaging twice as many trips to the line as he did last season (6.0 vs. 2.8). Teague has continued to pick up the playmaking void left by the departures of Josh Smith and Joe Johnson; the 25-year-old owns the fifth-highest assist rate in the league.
Names to watch
Michael Carter-Williams, Philadelphia 76ers
There were questions whether he could ever be an All-Star in this league, much less in his rookie season. Though the Sixers' up-tempo playing style has inflated his numbers a tad, it's still ridiculous that he's averaging 17.7 points, 7.3 assists and 5.8 rebounds already. Furthermore, his 4.1 percent steal rate (estimated number of opponent possessions stolen while on the floor) is currently the highest for any player in more than 15 years (Brevin Knight in 1997-98). Get that knee infection taken care of.
Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers
You could make an argument that Irving's career has gone backwards since his hyper-efficient rookie season. He could play himself into a spot simply because the competition is shallower than a street puddle, but we need to see more games like Tuesday's against the Knicks (37 points and 11 assists). Only problem: He doesn't play the Knicks again before the voting closes on Jan. 20. With a 49.4 percent true shooting percentage, he's more of a chucker than a floor leader this season. And that needs to change.
Jordan Crawford, Boston Celtics
Don't laugh. No, there's no rule that requires a division leader to have an All-Star representative, but Crawford might not need it. Crawford always has been a better passer than his reputation dictated, but no one saw this coming. Crawford has notched as many 10-assist games this season as Jose Calderon, Damian Lillard, Eric Bledsoe and George Hill combined (three). All told, Crawford owns the fourth-highest PER among East guards. Brad Stevens, miracle worker.
FRONTCOURT ALL-STARS
Starters
Paul George, Indiana Pacers
Three seasons ago, George came off the bench for Indiana. Two seasons ago, he became the full-time starter. Last season, he was named to his first All-Star Game. This season, he'll likely become an All-Star starter at age 23. Quite the trajectory. His numbers outside the scoring column have tumbled a bit, but a 60 true shooting percentage coupled with a 28.8 percent usage rate is Kevin Durant-esque. High volume, high efficiency.
LeBron James, Miami Heat
James has shot league average from the floor in 20 of his 22 games this season and hasn't missed more than 10 shots in a game all season. For perspective, Durant misses 10 shots per game on average. James will continue his ridiculous consistency with his 10th straight start in the All-Star game. And just for kicks, he could be starting at center. That is, if the guy below doesn't grab a spot like he snatches lobs from outer space.
Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons
Drummond probably will get some love for Most Improved Player this season, but in reality his per-minute numbers are nearly identical to his rookie season. The difference? He's finally getting the run he deserves. He tops every East center in EWA, and he paces the league in field goal percentage as well as jaw-drop percentage. Start the "Big Penguin" in the Big Easy.
Reserves
Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks
You wouldn't know it by the Knicks' turmoil, but Anthony is enjoying his second-best PER of his career. Sharing the frontcourt with Andrea Bargnani hasn't done much for Anthony's scoring, but Bargnani has had a wonderful effect on Anthony's rebounding numbers much in the same way it did for Chris Bosh back in Toronto. Anthony's averaging a career-high 9.6 rebounds per game, but his biggest rebound still has yet to come: getting the Knicks back into the playoffs.
Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
Bosh is putting up career lows across the board on a per-game level, but that's not his fault. He's sat out six fourth-quarters this season due to the Heat blowing out their opponents. Bosh has successfully added a 3-point shot to his arsenal and continues to be one of the slickest shooting big men in the game. He'll never get the credit he deserves defensively, but he's a big reason why the Heat have the sixth-best defense in the land. Like Wade, Bosh's lack of minutes put a dent in his résumé, but he's still a two-way All-Star nonetheless.
Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets
Meet the most productive big man in the league. An ankle injury knocked Lopez out of seven games recently, but the 7-footer has been brilliant when he's on the floor. He's the gold standard on the block these days, averaging 1.2 points per post-up play, second to only James. You know what's sneaky good? Lopez's defense. SportVU stat: He's held opponents to just 40.2 percent shooting at the rim when he's defending the basket, which is on par with Roy Hibbert. Rebounds would be nice, but that's nitpicking a great all-around season; he's threatening James for the top PER in the league.
Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers
Hibbert would be an All-Star starter purely based on his work against the defending champs. Since last May, Hibbert shoots 57 percent from the floor with a 23.8 PER against the Miami Heat, but those numbers slide to 48 percent and 18.8 respectively against everyone else. Considering his top-notch defense, you could make an argument he should be the starter over Drummond, but the tiebreaker goes to the 20-year-old for entertainment purposes.
Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
After a two-year absence, Horford should find his way back into the All-Star Game this season. Horford has made music in the paint playing off of Paul Millsap, posting careerhighs in points per minute and blocks per minute. Armed with an automatic midrange jumper and a sharp enough handle to survive as a wing, Horford brings as much skill to the table as any big in the game. Just wish he could play at the 4 where he belonged.
Names to watch
David West, Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have never sent three players to the All-Star Game in franchise history, but that drought could end this season if the Eastern Conference coaches feel so inclined. West's efficiency numbers have taken a dip this season, but like Anthony, he still remains one of the most productive guys at his position. Underappreciated: West's passing game. He dishes out more dimes per minute than both his Indy teammates Paul George and C.J. Watson.
Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
If you're a regular viewer of our TrueHoopTV Live program, you already know I'm the president of the fake Paul Millsap fan club. Most folks assumed that the Hawks would take a step back this season after Josh Smith left for Detroit, but Millsap has picked up the slack and then some. He's slumped at the free throw line, but he's a delightfully skilled big man who can just about do everything on the floor. Little known secret: Millsap has the top PER among East power forwards.
Reserves
Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks
You wouldn't know it by the Knicks' turmoil, but Anthony is enjoying his second-best PER of his career. Sharing the frontcourt with Andrea Bargnani hasn't done much for Anthony's scoring, but Bargnani has had a wonderful effect on Anthony's rebounding numbers much in the same way it did for Chris Bosh back in Toronto. Anthony's averaging a career-high 9.6 rebounds per game, but his biggest rebound still has yet to come: getting the Knicks back into the playoffs.
Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
Bosh is putting up career lows across the board on a per-game level, but that's not his fault. He's sat out six fourth-quarters this season due to the Heat blowing out their opponents. Bosh has successfully added a 3-point shot to his arsenal and continues to be one of the slickest shooting big men in the game. He'll never get the credit he deserves defensively, but he's a big reason why the Heat have the sixth-best defense in the land. Like Wade, Bosh's lack of minutes put a dent in his résumé, but he's still a two-way All-Star nonetheless.
Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets
Meet the most productive big man in the league. An ankle injury knocked Lopez out of seven games recently, but the 7-footer has been brilliant when he's on the floor. He's the gold standard on the block these days, averaging 1.2 points per post-up play, second to only James. You know what's sneaky good? Lopez's defense. SportVU stat: He's held opponents to just 40.2 percent shooting at the rim when he's defending the basket, which is on par with Roy Hibbert. Rebounds would be nice, but that's nitpicking a great all-around season; he's threatening James for the top PER in the league.
Reserves
Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks
You wouldn't know it by the Knicks' turmoil, but Anthony is enjoying his second-best PER of his career. Sharing the frontcourt with Andrea Bargnani hasn't done much for Anthony's scoring, but Bargnani has had a wonderful effect on Anthony's rebounding numbers much in the same way it did for Chris Bosh back in Toronto. Anthony's averaging a career-high 9.6 rebounds per game, but his biggest rebound still has yet to come: getting the Knicks back into the playoffs.
Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
Bosh is putting up career lows across the board on a per-game level, but that's not his fault. He's sat out six fourth-quarters this season due to the Heat blowing out their opponents. Bosh has successfully added a 3-point shot to his arsenal and continues to be one of the slickest shooting big men in the game. He'll never get the credit he deserves defensively, but he's a big reason why the Heat have the sixth-best defense in the land. Like Wade, Bosh's lack of minutes put a dent in his résumé, but he's still a two-way All-Star nonetheless.
Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets
Meet the most productive big man in the league. An ankle injury knocked Lopez out of seven games recently, but the 7-footer has been brilliant when he's on the floor. He's the gold standard on the block these days, averaging 1.2 points per post-up play, second to only James. You know what's sneaky good? Lopez's defense. SportVU stat: He's held opponents to just 40.2 percent shooting at the rim when he's defending the basket, which is on par with Roy Hibbert. Rebounds would be nice, but that's nitpicking a great all-around season; he's threatening James for the top PER in the league.
Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks
You wouldn't know it by the Knicks' turmoil, but Anthony is enjoying his second-best PER of his career. Sharing the frontcourt with Andrea Bargnani hasn't done much for Anthony's scoring, but Bargnani has had a wonderful effect on Anthony's rebounding numbers much in the same way it did for Chris Bosh back in Toronto. Anthony's averaging a career-high 9.6 rebounds per game, but his biggest rebound still has yet to come: getting the Knicks back into the playoffs.
Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
Bosh is putting up career lows across the board on a per-game level, but that's not his fault. He's sat out six fourth-quarters this season due to the Heat blowing out their opponents. Bosh has successfully added a 3-point shot to his arsenal and continues to be one of the slickest shooting big men in the game. He'll never get the credit he deserves defensively, but he's a big reason why the Heat have the sixth-best defense in the land. Like Wade, Bosh's lack of minutes put a dent in his résumé, but he's still a two-way All-Star nonetheless.
Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets
Meet the most productive big man in the league. An ankle injury knocked Lopez out of seven games recently, but the 7-footer has been brilliant when he's on the floor. He's the gold standard on the block these days, averaging 1.2 points per post-up play, second to only James. You know what's sneaky good? Lopez's defense. SportVU stat: He's held opponents to just 40.2 percent shooting at the rim when he's defending the basket, which is on par with Roy Hibbert. Rebounds would be nice, but that's nitpicking a great all-around season; he's threatening James for the top PER in the league.
Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers
Hibbert would be an All-Star starter purely based on his work against the defending champs. Since last May, Hibbert shoots 57 percent from the floor with a 23.8 PER against the Miami Heat, but those numbers slide to 48 percent and 18.8 respectively against everyone else. Considering his top-notch defense, you could make an argument he should be the starter over Drummond, but the tiebreaker goes to the 20-year-old for entertainment purposes.
Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
After a two-year absence, Horford should find his way back into the All-Star Game this season. Horford has made music in the paint playing off of Paul Millsap, posting careerhighs in points per minute and blocks per minute. Armed with an automatic midrange jumper and a sharp enough handle to survive as a wing, Horford brings as much skill to the table as any big in the game. Just wish he could play at the 4 where he belonged.
Names to watch
David West, Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have never sent three players to the All-Star Game in franchise history, but that drought could end this season if the Eastern Conference coaches feel so inclined. West's efficiency numbers have taken a dip this season, but like Anthony, he still remains one of the most productive guys at his position. Underappreciated: West's passing game. He dishes out more dimes per minute than both his Indy teammates Paul George and C.J. Watson.
Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks
If you're a regular viewer of our TrueHoopTV Live program, you already know I'm the president of the fake Paul Millsap fan club. Most folks assumed that the Hawks would take a step back this season after Josh Smith left for Detroit, but Millsap has picked up the slack and then some. He's slumped at the free throw line, but he's a delightfully skilled big man who can just about do everything on the floor. Little known secret: Millsap has the top PER among East power forwards.
Reserves
Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks
You wouldn't know it by the Knicks' turmoil, but Anthony is enjoying his second-best PER of his career. Sharing the frontcourt with Andrea Bargnani hasn't done much for Anthony's scoring, but Bargnani has had a wonderful effect on Anthony's rebounding numbers much in the same way it did for Chris Bosh back in Toronto. Anthony's averaging a career-high 9.6 rebounds per game, but his biggest rebound still has yet to come: getting the Knicks back into the playoffs.
Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
Bosh is putting up career lows across the board on a per-game level, but that's not his fault. He's sat out six fourth-quarters this season due to the Heat blowing out their opponents. Bosh has successfully added a 3-point shot to his arsenal and continues to be one of the slickest shooting big men in the game. He'll never get the credit he deserves defensively, but he's a big reason why the Heat have the sixth-best defense in the land. Like Wade, Bosh's lack of minutes put a dent in his résumé, but he's still a two-way All-Star nonetheless.
Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets
Meet the most productive big man in the league. An ankle injury knocked Lopez out of seven games recently, but the 7-footer has been brilliant when he's on the floor. He's the gold standard on the block these days, averaging 1.2 points per post-up play, second to only James. You know what's sneaky good? Lopez's defense. SportVU stat: He's held opponents to just 40.2 percent shooting at the rim when he's defending the basket, which is on par with Roy Hibbert. Rebounds would be nice, but that's nitpicking a great all-around season; he's threatening James for the top PER in the league.
Reserves
Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks
You wouldn't know it by the Knicks' turmoil, but Anthony is enjoying his second-best PER of his career. Sharing the frontcourt with Andrea Bargnani hasn't done much for Anthony's scoring, but Bargnani has had a wonderful effect on Anthony's rebounding numbers much in the same way it did for Chris Bosh back in Toronto. Anthony's averaging a career-high 9.6 rebounds per game, but his biggest rebound still has yet to come: getting the Knicks back into the playoffs.
Chris Bosh, Miami Heat
Bosh is putting up career lows across the board on a per-game level, but that's not his fault. He's sat out six fourth-quarters this season due to the Heat blowing out their opponents. Bosh has successfully added a 3-point shot to his arsenal and continues to be one of the slickest shooting big men in the game. He'll never get the credit he deserves defensively, but he's a big reason why the Heat have the sixth-best defense in the land. Like Wade, Bosh's lack of minutes put a dent in his résumé, but he's still a two-way All-Star nonetheless.
Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets
Meet the most productive big man in the league. An ankle injury knocked Lopez out of seven games recently, but the 7-footer has been brilliant when he's on the floor. He's the gold standard on the block these days, averaging 1.2 points per post-up play, second to only James. You know what's sneaky good? Lopez's defense. SportVU stat: He's held opponents to just 40.2 percent shooting at the rim when he's defending the basket, which is on par with Roy Hibbert. Rebounds would be nice, but that's nitpicking a great all-around season; he's threatening James for the top PER in the league.
Peyton Manning's season best ever?
Peyton Manning's directive to shove the prevailing cold-weather narrative about him "where the sun don't shine" should rank high on his list of impressive comebacks.
It's not that Manning has always played well in the cold -- he hasn't. It's more that he has played only two home games in freezing temperatures over the past decade, including his dominant Week 14 performance in Denver's 51-28 victory over Tennessee. His 1-5 road record in freezing games over the same period included a victory at New England and two Week 17 defeats when Manning came out of the game early. It's not much to go on.
Now that we've shoved that narrative into the dark recesses of the current NFL dialogue -- or at least shelved it until the playoffs -- there is another matter for consideration.
Manning's 45 touchdown passes during the Broncos' 11-2 start is putting him on pace for arguably the greatest statistical season for a quarterback in NFL history. There is no sure way to rank seasons across eras, of course, but most would agree Dan Marino set the standard with his 48 scoring passes in 1984. Manning broke the record with 49 in 2004, only to have Tom Brady throw 50 three years later.
If Brady occupies the No. 1 spot on the Mount Rushmore of modern QB statistical seasons, how is Manning stacking up this season? The search for answers begins with a look at how both fared overall, against winning teams, on third-and-long and in fourth-quarter comeback situations. The breakdowns produced a surprise or two and helped me arrive at a verdict in the end of just how impressive Manning is this season.
Overall stats
The numbers through 13 games are remarkably similar, as the chart below shows. Manning should be in good position to move ahead over the Broncos' remaining three games. Brady finished his 2007 season with five touchdown passes and three interceptions over the final three games. His late slide included a 20-10 victory over the New York Jets in which Brady completed 51.9 percent of his passes with no touchdowns and one pick, the only game all season in which Brady failed to throw a scoring pass.
'07 Brady vs. '13 Manning: 13 Games
QBBradyManning
W-L13-011-2
Comp.334366
Att.476539
Pct.70.267.9
Yards4,0594,522
YPA8.68.4
TD-INT45-545-9
Passer rating123.5114.5
Pass distance8.07.8
Sacked1615
Total QBR88.883.5
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
Manning faces favorable matchups against the San Diego Chargers, Houston Texans and Oakland Raiders. He has seven touchdowns with no interceptions in games against the Chargers and Raiders already and Houston has allowed 23 scoring passes while collecting only five interceptions. Only San Diego and three other teams are allowing a higher QBR score than the Texans are allowing this season, and Houston's five picks are a league low.
Resting starters can come into play if a team clinches home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The 2007 Patriots played to win all the way through, becoming the first team to finish a regular season with a 16-0 record. The Broncos aren't in the clear this year. Denver holds a one-game lead over New England and a two-game lead over Cincinnati in the race for home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. Kansas City isn't far behind in the AFC West. Also, the Patriots won the head-to-head matchup against the Broncos, giving them a tiebreaker advantage. In other words, Manning isn't sitting anytime soon.
Brady finished the 2007 season with 4,806 yards passing, 50 touchdowns, eight interceptions, a 117.2 passer rating and an 87.1 QBR score. Manning is on pace to finish with 5,566 yards passing, 55 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
Results vs. winning teams
We'll stick with the comparison through 13 games as we transition into the second category. This one covers each quarterback's production against teams that had winning records at kickoff and at the end of the season. Manning's opponents aren't finished playing, so the numbers could change some. Brady has the advantage here, both in won-lost record and in production.
'07 Brady, '13 Manning vs. Winning Teams
QBBradyManning
W-L5-02-2
Comp.13894
Att.193160
Pct.71.558.8
Yards1,6271,262
YPA8.47.9
TD-INT18-311-4
Passer rating121.496.4
Pass distance7.88.6
Sacked86
Total QBR89.570.0
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
Manning's Broncos swept the Kansas City Chiefs (10-3) to account for both of their victories against winning teams. They lost to the Patriots and Indianapolis Colts (8-5). Manning's numbers were way down in those defeats. He completed 56.5 percent of his passes and averaged just 6.3 yards per attempt with an 85.2 passer rating and 43.6 QBR score in those defeats. There are no comparable stats for Brady in 2007 because his team never lost.
Brady lit up the winning teams New England played in 2007. He had 18 touchdown passes and three picks against them. His passer rating was 123.0 or higher in four of the five games. It was never lower than the 95.2 he posted during a 24-20 road victory against Manning's Indianapolis Colts. The Patriots entered that game with an 8-0 record. The Colts were 7-0. New England won the game with Brady's 13-yard scoring pass to Kevin Faulk with 3:21 remaining.
Brady's QBR score was 82.7 or higher in all six games against winning teams. Manning has had a passer rating higher than 96.1 in one of his four games against winning teams, with one QBR score above 66.5. His overall numbers in these games have been strong, but not close to the level Brady achieved against teams with similar credentials on the surface.
Remember though, these numbers do not cover the Patriots' entire season. We're looking at the first 13 games only.
Third-and-long production
Quarterbacks are at their best when they can keep defenses off balance by introducing run-pass conflicts. That isn't possible in third-and-long situations. Defenses know a pass play is coming. The next chart shows the 2007 Brady with a clear edge over the 2013 Manning on third-down plays when the offense needed 7-10 yards for a first down.
'07 Brady vs. '13 Manning, 3rd-and-long
QBBradyManning
W-L13-011-2
Comp.1626
Att.2849
Pct.57.153.1
Yards263380
YPA9.47.8
TD-INT2-04-4
Passer rating112.671.8
Pass distance11.911.1
Sacked13
Total QBR97.649.2
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
These third-and-long plays account for only 9.4 percent of Manning's pass dropbacks this season, but he has thrown four of his nine interceptions (44.4 percent) in these situations. That included the pick-six interception Manning threw to Jacksonville linebacker Paul Posluszny on a third-and-7, pulling the Jaguars within two points. That play created a 26.2 percent drop in win probability, the largest one-play drop for a regular-season play involving Manning since he signed with the Broncos before last season.
Seeking contrast, I also looked into both quarterbacks' numbers on first-and-10. Both had triple-digit passer ratings and QBR scores in the low 80s. Both averaged better than 9.3 yards per pass attempt. Manning completed 68.5 percent of his passes. Brady's completion rate was at 71.3. It gets back to maximizing situations when opponents must account for the run. Third-and-long flips the advantage to the defense. Brady's ability to put up impressive numbers anyway shows just how consistently dominant the Patriots were on offense during the 2007 season.
Fourth-quarter comebacks
The final chart shows how the 2007 Brady and 2013 Manning fared in the fourth quarters of their first 13 games when trailing by no more than eight points. These situations have been atypical for both quarterbacks, in part because of how well they've played while putting games out of reach. No player was dramatically better than the other.
'07 Brady vs. '13 Manning: Comebacks
QBBradyManning
W-L3-02-1
Comp.1816
Att.3425
Pct.52.964.0
Yards260173
YPA7.76.9
TD-INT2-12-1
Passer rating85.494.2
Pass distance8.87.2
Sacked20
Total QBR64.884.2
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
The 2007 Patriots won nine of their first 13 games by at least 21 points. They won another game by 17 points. But three other victories -- 24-20 at Indy, 27-24 at Baltimore and 31-28 versus Philadelphia -- featured successful fourth-quarter comebacks from New England.
Brady helped the 2007 Patriots come back to beat the 7-0 Colts with two big plays in the final four minutes. The first came on a pass Brady delivered 33 yards downfield to Donte' Stallworth. Brady then dumped off to Kevin Faulk for the winning touchdown on a 13-yard catch-and-run. Against Baltimore, New England came back to win after a penalty against the Ravens on fourth-and-5 gave the Patriots first-and-goal. Brady's short scoring pass to Jabar Gaffney came with 55 seconds remaining. Against Philadelphia, it was a Laurence Maroney run that provided the winning points.
Manning's Broncos have won four games by at least 22 points, four more by at least 10 and another by seven. The Colts lost at Indy after Manning threw a fourth-quarter pick while trailing 36-30 in a game Denver lost 39-33. A week later, the Broncos tied Washington on the second play of the fourth quarter when Manning found Joel Dreessen in the end zone on fourth-and-goal from the 1. More recently, in Week 12, Manning led the tying fourth-quarter touchdown drive at New England, but Denver ultimately lost in overtime after suffering a pivotal turnover on special teams.
The numbers favor Manning in part because Brady took two sacks, misfired on a fourth-down play against the Eagles and had a lower completion percentage. But the sample size is small and the Patriots won all three games.
Final thoughts, and a verdict
I'll take Brady's 2007 season through 13 games narrowly over what Manning has accomplished so far this season. Brady's team was undefeated, he had thrown fewer interceptions and the metrics favored him slightly. But I think Manning will finish with the better statistical season overall. Brady didn't finish as strong statistically as Manning is likely to finish, particularly given the opposition.
In the end, both quarterbacks will remember these special seasons primarily for their endings, not for the stats. Brady and the 2007 Patriots came up short against the New York Giants in the Super Bowl, spoiling a 16-0 regular season. Manning and the Broncos, one and done in the playoffs last season, seek playoff validation this time.
The final chart shows how the 2007 Brady and 2013 Manning fared in the fourth quarters of their first 13 games when trailing by no more than eight points. These situations have been atypical for both quarterbacks, in part because of how well they've played while putting games out of reach. No player was dramatically better than the other.
'07 Brady vs. '13 Manning: Comebacks
QBBradyManning
W-L3-02-1
Comp.1816
Att.3425
Pct.52.964.0
Yards260173
YPA7.76.9
TD-INT2-12-1
Passer rating85.494.2
Pass distance8.87.2
Sacked20
Total QBR64.884.2
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
The 2007 Patriots won nine of their first 13 games by at least 21 points. They won another game by 17 points. But three other victories -- 24-20 at Indy, 27-24 at Baltimore and 31-28 versus Philadelphia -- featured successful fourth-quarter comebacks from New England.
Brady helped the 2007 Patriots come back to beat the 7-0 Colts with two big plays in the final four minutes. The first came on a pass Brady delivered 33 yards downfield to Donte' Stallworth. Brady then dumped off to Kevin Faulk for the winning touchdown on a 13-yard catch-and-run. Against Baltimore, New England came back to win after a penalty against the Ravens on fourth-and-5 gave the Patriots first-and-goal. Brady's short scoring pass to Jabar Gaffney came with 55 seconds remaining. Against Philadelphia, it was a Laurence Maroney run that provided the winning points.
Manning's Broncos have won four games by at least 22 points, four more by at least 10 and another by seven. The Colts lost at Indy after Manning threw a fourth-quarter pick while trailing 36-30 in a game Denver lost 39-33. A week later, the Broncos tied Washington on the second play of the fourth quarter when Manning found Joel Dreessen in the end zone on fourth-and-goal from the 1. More recently, in Week 12, Manning led the tying fourth-quarter touchdown drive at New England, but Denver ultimately lost in overtime after suffering a pivotal turnover on special teams.
The numbers favor Manning in part because Brady took two sacks, misfired on a fourth-down play against the Eagles and had a lower completion percentage. But the sample size is small and the Patriots won all three games.
Final thoughts, and a verdict
I'll take Brady's 2007 season through 13 games narrowly over what Manning has accomplished so far this season. Brady's team was undefeated, he had thrown fewer interceptions and the metrics favored him slightly. But I think Manning will finish with the better statistical season overall. Brady didn't finish as strong statistically as Manning is likely to finish, particularly given the opposition.
In the end, both quarterbacks will remember these special seasons primarily for their endings, not for the stats. Brady and the 2007 Patriots came up short against the New York Giants in the Super Bowl, spoiling a 16-0 regular season. Manning and the Broncos, one and done in the playoffs last season, seek playoff validation this time.
CarolinaKing
The Carolina Blueprint
Scouting Kentucky-North Carolina
Keys to victory in Saturday's showdown of storied programs
How Kentucky can beat North Carolina
By Seth Greenberg
Offensive keys
Be efficient with the ball: Defensively in the half court, North Carolina will play man-to-man with a few possessions of point zone. In their man, the Tar Heels hope to use their length and are active off the ball. They look to run through passing lanes. It is important to set up cuts and meet passes. When driving to the hoop, it's crucial to take the ball at their shot-blockers. On post passes, they will scrape the post off the passer.
Look to push the ball, as UNC at times this season has struggled in defensive transition, though it loves to push the ball as well after a missed shot. Remember, bad attempts will lead to good offense for the Tar Heels, so we must limit that.
Feed the beast: We must establish Julius Randle early. Expect him to be doubled, so he'll need to use his back dribble to create space to throw out of. Proper spacing is necessary for this to be effective. James Young, Aaron Harrison and Andrew Harrison must either get to the "window" or be a cutter to the rim. Finish all cuts! Willie Cauley-Stein must put himself in a position to get to the glass.
Win the paint battle: Be hard to block out and establish deep post position. In our dribble-drive motion offense, get two feet in the paint at all times. Our guards must get downhill, play through the defense and read kickouts and dump-offs. North Carolina has been inconsistent rebounding the ball this season, so we must be relentless. The Tar Heels gave up 21 offensive rebounds in a loss against UAB but outworked Michigan State on the backboards in a win. We need to take control of the interior.
Defensive keys
Limit the Tar Heels backcourt: North Carolina is led by 6-foot-1 sophomore Marcus Paige, its sneaky-quick lefty point guard. He looks to push the ball at every opportunity and is a big-time shooter with NBA range. Paige likes to create space off the jab step. You cannot go under on ball screens when defending him. He has a runner and is a good passer.
Nate Britt plays off Paige. He will push the ball in transition and has a pass-first mentality. You can gap him. It's important for us to keep Paige and Britt out of the lane and contain them in transition. Offensively, I look for the Wildcats to use their size to attack the undersized backcourt off the dribble and off closeouts. Wing J.P. Tokoto is ultra-athletic and a great offensive rebounder, but he struggles shooting the ball, so you can gap him and play him for the drive.
We must pressure Paige on all ball screens so we can get over the top. The screener's defender must arrive with the screen at the level of the screen. Being late and soft will give Paige room and rhythm.
Don't let the Tar Heels frontcourt get comfortable:Up front, the Tar Heels are deep and versatile. James Michael McAdoo can shoot the ball to 15 feet but is best running the floor. He is an alert off-ball defender but can be driven in the half court. He is joined by a combination of big, physical, athletic posts and power forwards in Brice Johnson and Kennedy Meeks. Johnson is the most athletic of the frontcourt players, as he runs the court hard, finishes off dump-offs, is an active offensive rebounder and can knock down the 15-foot jumper. He would rather groove his right shoulder.
Meeks is a big, physical low-post player. What he lacks in lift he makes up with excellent footwork and hands. Be careful of his shot fake and step through. He must be cut out on the shot. Meeks is an excellent wedge rebounder. Make sure to limit Isaiah Hicks and Joel James on the glass as well.
Make North Carolina set up its half-court offense:Offensively, the Tar Heels are looking to push at every opportunity. They will contest and leak out for run-outs. The better shot selection and execution we have on offense, the better the defensive transition. In transition, it's crucial to run with their bigs, as they look often to early post.
Once in the half court, Paige will use trail drag screens to get in the lane or will hit ahead. North Carolina will run out of a box set as well as flow to motion. This is a hard-cutting team. Communication, early talk and being alert are absolutely essential.
How North Carolina can beat Kentucky
By Bruce Pearl
Offensive keys
Attack the hoop early in the shot clock: We must score against Kentucky before it can get its defense set. The primary focus is to get to the rim before its post presences can establish position in the paint. Michigan State did that in its 78-74 win early in the season, and we must do the same.
The most effective way to score is in transition. In order to run, you have to rebound first. John Calipari has to make a choice: Will he send four players to the offensive boards like Michigan State did and run the risk of getting beat in transition? Or what Belmont did when it beat us in Chapel Hill and sag back to its own zone? That decision could loom large.
Don't turn the ball over: Once Kentucky is back defensively, you must make them cover. Be patient and see if the young Wildcats will gamble, overrun the ball or foul. You must do this without turning it over and giving them easy baskets. We forced 14 turnovers in our win against Michigan State, so we can't let it happen to us.
Establish post presence from the opening tip: The ball must go inside early and often. We've done a strong job at reversing the ball and creating angles for our posts to score at the rim. That needs to continue, though it will be a challenge. You can't make tough 2-pointers against Kentucky because of its length. Drop steps and high-lows must be used to score in the paint.
Marcus Paige's improvement from long range will come into play. He shoots 39 percent from 3-point range, so when doubled inside, kick it out for the open shot. Paige's quickness and ability to score from anywhere on the court can turn this game in our favor.
Defensive keys
Contain Julius Randle: We must limit Randle's touches and force the ball elsewhere. Be physical against him and see if you can get him to catch it off the block. This forces Randle to put the ball on the floor, where he can be stripped and ripped, rather than in the post where he's most comfortable.
When he does catch it deep, you must mix up doubling him on the catch and on the bounce. Doing so will keep him off balance and not allow him to get into any kind of rhythm.
Force Kentucky to take 3-pointers: Build a wall defensively and make the young Wildcats beat you from the perimeter. Baylor did it with zone, which we will implement at times Saturday. We'll also use a helping, hedging man-to-man. Andrew Harrison (38 percent from 3-point range) and James Young (34 percent) are solid deep shooters, but let's tempt anyone else from the outside. It should look like all five defenders are holding hands and playing red rover. And when Andrew Harrison drives, slide your feet and cut him off.
Keep the Wildcats off the offensive glass: The most important factor in whether we win or lose will come on the boards. We gave up 21 offensive rebounds in a loss against UAB, and that can't happen again. It's such a boost to an offense's energy and confidence, especially for a young team like Kentucky. If we can keep them off the glass -- offensively and defensively -- we have a serious chance to win.
CarolinaKing
The Carolina Blueprint
Idk how that rep aint over 1,000 right now breh
954UAlreadyknow
All Star
Soph 20: Lillard leaps to top of list
We recently named Anthony Davis as the top "under 25" player in the league. That list was based more on each player's potential rather than how they are playing now. But these sophomore rankings look only at this season and how the second-year players are currently performing. That is why Davis no longer leads this list, as he's been out with an injury.
Our new No. 1, though, does not have to apologize for grabbing his throne back from Davis. After all, he is the reigning rookie of the year and the quarterback of the league's biggest surprise contender in perhaps the strongest conference in league history.
1. Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers
Lillard has been handling his role as Portland's primary ball handler and decision-maker with poise and confidence all season, running a Blazers attack that features a deadly and precise half-court game. His unique combination of skills is already elevating him into the conversation of "who's the best young point guard in the game?"
While Lillard doesn't have elite athleticism, speed or quickness, he is very good in each category. The same can be said about his pick-and-roll play. But he is an elite ball handler, which helps him in all of those areas, and he is terrific in isolation play. Because teams typically send bigs toward the ball to run ball-screen actions -- and the Blazers are no different -- it is important for the offense to try to mix up looks as much as possible, as long as those looks are similarly productive. So having a point guard who does not require a ball screen to create advantages is a luxury.
Lillard's isolation play ranks high because of all of his "very good" talents plus his perimeter shooting, which may be moving into the elite level. He is crafty, so he knows how to get fouled. He can make pull-up jumpers and floaters, using them wisely and not as a first resort (they are not high-percentage shots when compared to strong drives, for example). And he has a strong stop-and-pop game (pull-up jumpers off a hard dribble-drive), which means he can use a stop-and-go dribble move to get to the rim or get fouled when his defender expects the jumper.
Lillard has also shown the ability to hit half-hooks. So when defenders are forced to defend that shot, Lillard can then add a burst of speed and turn the corner on the slowing defender for a dunk or layup. His step-back 3, normally a low percentage shot, is effective, too, because his defender is already giving him a cushion, which allows Lillard to only slightly step back to get the shot off. And just when his man is convinced Lillard will rise up to shoot, Lillard can hit him with a quick crossover and earn a simple layup.
Most great guards have always been able to beat their man, but as they age, they understand it's the second line of defense that has to be accounted for. Lillard is not adept at this in half-court sets yet, which is one reason why he is shooting below 40 percent at the rim overall. But in early offense, before the opposing team sets its defense, his one-on-one play helps him find creases to the rim. He also excels at using "brush" or "influence" screens, which are screens that have a big either barely touch Lillard's defender or not at all; just the presence of the big near the man defending Lillard creates problems.
Hubie Brown taught years ago that teams set a screen for one reason: to make defenders think. (To this day, it stands as the single most insightful teaching point I have ever heard). So just the possibility of a screen can be effective with a skilled ball handler such as Lillard. He's best in early offense sequences, with or without screens, getting almost nine points a game and sporting an effective field goal percentage above 60 percent in the first 10 seconds of possessions.
His offense drops considerably in pure half-court action after those first 10 seconds, but he's just barely six weeks into his second season. It's fair to guess he will become far more efficient in those later-in-the-clock possessions as he learns how to read the game, and he should be brilliant in the early-action game for many years to come.
(Previous rank: 3)
2. Andre Drummond, Pistons
Drummond continues to be a beast for Detroit in its half-court sets. He's just so good at rolling to the rim and finishing, looking like a vintage Amar'e Stoudemire on these actions. Most bigs can't maneuver in tight spaces like Stoudemire could in Phoenix, and Drummond is blessed with similar nimbleness.
Drummond also does a great job of lurking near the rim, awaiting a pass, and he knows what to do with it when he gets it. Factor in his prowess on defense and on the glass and Drummond is still on the march toward being an All-Star center for a decade.
(Previous rank: 2)
3. Anthony Davis, Pelicans
Davis has been injured enough in his first two seasons in the league that we should be mildly concerned about his future. But when he has been on the court, he has answered every question with authority. This is a future MVP candidate if he can play 75 games a season.
(Previous rank: 1)
4. John Henson, Bucks
The Bucks are aligning themselves for a top pick in this draft, but they have their power forward of the future. Henson has emerged as one of the top shot-blockers/rim-finishers in the league.
He's still so light and thin (6-foot-11, 220 pounds), yet Henson is making about 60 percent of his rim shots while being a top-4 shot-blocker. That is a golden combination, considering how much better he can get as he gets stronger.
(Previous rank: 6)
5. Jared Sullinger, Celtics
Sullinger is helping Boston's offense in two distinct ways this season as it tries to cobble together points without Rajon Rondo. One, he is a nice option in the post, an area where he has been scoring well from for his entire career.
Two, he is scoring off the offensive glass, where he is really Boston's only effective player in this category. He has done well using his big body to gain advantages near the rim, the most valuable space on the court.
(Previous rank: 4)
6. Terrence Jones, Rockets
There are those who think that Dwight Howard is best complemented by a power forward who is just a pure 3-point threat to help spread the court as much as possible. That is not Jones, who is struggling from 3 in December after shooting well in November (9-for-21). Yet there are things Jones can do that help a team featuring Howard. Jones has great hands, which help him excel in transition, and he's skilled with the ball, so he can beat defenders off the dribble from the perimeter.
He'll turn 22 next month, giving him ample time to develop as a shooter and overall player. It would not be a surprise to see Houston anoint Jones as the permanent starter next to Howard -- it's also possible they find that person as part of an Omer Asik deal. But Jones has played well enough to allow management to fill other holes.
(Previous rank: 5)
7. Andrew Nicholson, Magic
Nicholson hasn't yet made a big jump forward as an impact player, but he has been steady. He can shoot and finish well inside while being a perimeter threat from various spots on the court.
There was hope in Orlando that he could be a starter, and it still might happen, but he just has not played to that level yet in terms of consistency. Still, his offensive talent is enough to suggest he'll be a presence in the rotation for years.
(Previous rank: 11)