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Skooby

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8. Thomas Robinson, Trail Blazers
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Robinson seems destined to be a disappointment overall if evaluated as a former No. 5 overall pick, but as we like to say: To get out of a hole, the person first has to stop digging. That is what Robinson is doing this season -- fewer bad shots, more plays where he sticks to his role as a tough, energy guy off the bench.

Robinson is playing solid basketball as a regular rotation guy for one of the league's elite teams. This could be the launching pad Robinson needs to grow his game, or perhaps this is all he will be. Now that we see some consistency, we can start checking for growth.

(Previous rank: 20)


9. Jeremy Lamb, Thunder
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Lamb has proved to be up to the task of stepping into the Harden/Martin role that helped OKC win so many games in the past few years. He is a pure shooter on spot-ups and has been adept at hitting shots off the dribble as well.

Lamb likes to rise up off ball screens for that silky jumper, rather than attack to gain paint position, which is why he has taken fewer than 20 free throws this season. But with a shot that sweet, it all works.

(Previous rank: 16)


10. Miles Plumlee, Suns
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One of the biggest surprises of the season, Phoenix, features one of the biggest surprises of the 2012 draft in Plumlee, who is averaging two blocks per game and close to a double-double in points and rebounds.

He is also excelling at the art of showing as a helper on defense, letting potential drivers know he is lurking and aiding to keep them on the perimeter. Then he is able to quickly rotate back to his man to block out and rebound. It sounds simple but it is not easy to execute well.

(Previous rank: 10)


11. Tony Wroten, 76ers
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Wroten is still struggling as a shooter from both the 3-point line and the free throw line. But he's showing a great combination of will, athleticism and energy, while being a constant force on defense for the Sixers.

(Previous rank: 13)


12. Jonas Valanciunas, Raptors
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Moving Rudy Gay opens up the offense for more Valanciunas-based sets, and he is showing signs of increased production. He's the most likely guy in this second set of 10 to move into the top 8 or so next month.

(Previous rank: 9)


13. Bradley Beal, Wizards
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Beal has fallen on this list due to missing time with a leg injury, but he returned to the Wizards' lineup on Monday and picked up where he left off. He had scored 17 or more points in his previous six games before getting hurt, and poured in 21 on Monday night against the Knicks, including two late buckets (one was the game-winning drive). He has the look of a player ready to take a big step forward in consistent production.

(Previous rank: 7)


14. Patrick Beverley, Rockets
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Still a bulldog on defense, Beverley has struggled to shoot the ball for Houston. He's also not moving the ball around as quickly as he should, setting a bad tone sometimes that his teammates follow.

(Previous rank: 8)


15. Pablo Prigioni, Knicks
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Before going down with a toe injury, Prigioni was doing what we should expect a 36-year-old player to do -- his job. He was making 3s and not turning the ball over. But if the Knicks drop further out of contention, his role could be reduced as New York builds for the future.

(Previous rank: NR)


16. Dion Waiters, Cavaliers
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There may not be any player more enigmatic to analyze than Waiters, who seems to put together terrific games or awful ones every week. Just in his past six games, Waiters had three in which he scored 14 points on 24 shots combined, and another three in which he tallied 67 points on 49 shots.

(Previous rank: NR)


17. Harrison Barnes, Warriors
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In Andre Iguodala's absence, Barnes has put up good scoring numbers, but has not shot or played all that well. He has yet to pick up where he left off in April and May.

(Previous rank: 12)


18. Khris Middleton, Bucks
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The Bucks are bad, yes, but Middleton is slowly growing into a special 3-point shooter with excellent mechanics.

(Previous rank: NR)


19. Kyle Singler, Pistons
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When Singler gets hot from the perimeter, he has good scoring games. Otherwise he is a nice hustle guy, someone the Pistons count on each night to make energy plays.

(Previous rank: NR)


20. Mike Scott, Hawks
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Solid pro who can beat up stretch 4s inside, and someone Atlanta counts on to bring toughness and good decision-making overall.

(Previous rank: NR)
 
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dont forget to dap skooby.

@Skooby i just changed the thread title. if you want me to change it to something else let me know
 
Skooby

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Jplaya2023 said:
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10153000/nfl-playoff-odds-green-bay-playoff-hunt

THANKS YOU AGAIN SKOOBY
Click to expand...

Playoff odds: Green Bay's shot

With the crazy NFC North results this past weekend, Football Outsiders' playoff odds in that division have changed considerably from a week ago. Detroit's loss on Monday night was devastating, as they went from a 2-to-1 favorite to a 4-to-1 underdog. It's easy to quip, "Lions will be Lions," but that would be unfair, considering the sheer improbability of a successful 61-yard field goal, let alone a game winner in the final minute of regulation. For all intents and purposes, that leaves the Bears and Packers as the main contenders for NFC North supremacy, and the two teams play each other in Chicago on the final weekend of the regular season.
The health of Aaron Rodgers makes a huge difference here. As an experiment, we ran separate batches of 50,000 simulations: One batch used Green Bay's weighted DVOA as it stands right now (minus-9.6 percent) to simulate Rodgers remaining out for the final two games; the other batch used Green Bay's weighted DVOA at the time of Rodgers' injury (11.9 percent) to simulate him returning for the final two games. In the scenario where Rodgers doesn't come back, Chicago's probability of winning the NFC North is 61 percent, and Green Bay's is only 19 percent. In the scenario where he comes back this week, however, Chicago is only a 51 percent favorite, and Green Bay's chances jump to 32 percent.
In short, ownership of the NFC North division title shifts 23 percentage points based simply on whether Rodgers plays again this season.

Here is the rest of the updated NFL playoff picture. You can find the full playoff odds report, including the odds of each team winning each of the six seeds, on FootballOutsiders.com.
AFC playoff projections
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No. 1 Denver Broncos
Current record: 11-3 | Weighted DVOA: 26.1 percent
Projected wins: 12.4
Total playoff odds: 100.0 percent | Weekly change: 0.0 percent
On the heels of a massive upset loss -- they were an 86 percent favorite -- Denver's probability of earning the No. 1 seed dropped from 76 percent to 63 percent. Wait, what? The Patriots and Bengals also lost, so how did the Broncos' chances drop 13 percent? The answer is that all three of these losses allowed the Chiefs, who played themselves out of contention in late November, to re-enter the picture in mid-December (more on that shortly). But don't fret, Broncos fans. With remaining games coming against two of the worst three teams in the NFL (Oakland and Houston, according to weighted DVOA), our projection model says there's only a 15 percent chance Denver loses either game.
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No. 2 New England Patriots
Current record: 10-4 | Weighted DVOA: 21.0 percent
Projected wins: 11.3
Total playoff odds: 99.3 percent | Weekly change: -0.6 percent
Let's be honest, Patriots fans. New England has been in the No. 2 slot since we debuted this column, and closer to No. 3 than No. 1 all along. With that in mind -- and this may be cold comfort, considering the opportunity squandered on Sunday in Miami -- the Patriots' loss wasn't all that bad because the Bengals also lost, so New England's chances for the No. 2 seed actually increased from 43 percent to 46 percent. To boot, the Patriots have a 74 percent chance of sweeping their last two games, which is only slightly lower than the Bengals' 81 percent. And when it comes to the AFC East, New England is still an overwhelming favorite: They're a 97 percent favorite to win the division.
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No. 3 Cincinnati Bengals
Current record: 9-5 | Weighted DVOA: 14.8 percent
Projected wins: 10.6
Total playoff odds: 93.8 percent | Weekly change: -5.6 percent
One of the biggest stories coming out of Week 15 is that the Bengals suddenly find themselves in a dogfight for the AFC North. Just last week, Cincinnati was a 97 percent favorite; now it's an 83 percent favorite. The good news is that both of the Bengals' remaining games are at home, including against the Ravens in Week 17. Even better news is that, with Cincinnati hosting Minnesota (1 p.m. ET) this week and Baltimore hosting New England (4:25 p.m. ET), our projection model says there's a 55 percent chance the Bengals will have clinched the division by 8 p.m. ET Sunday.
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No. 4 Indianapolis Colts
Current record: 9-5 | Weighted DVOA: -4.8 percent
Projected wins: 9.9
Total playoff odds: 100.0 percent | Weekly change: +0.0 percent
Although they currently have the same record as Cincinnati, the Colts are virtually locked into the No. 4 seed (84.1 percent chance) because they lose a head-to-head tiebreaker and have a much tougher remaining schedule. According to our projection model, Indianapolis is a 19-to-1 underdog at Kansas City this weekend, while Cincinnati is a 19-to-1 favorite at home against Minnesota. Put those two odds together, and there's a 90 percent likelihood that the Colts will have nothing to play for in Week 17.
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No. 5 Kansas City Chiefs
Current record: 11-3 | Weighted DVOA: 21.8 percent
Projected wins: 12.3
Total playoff odds: 100.0 percent | Weekly change: +0.0 percent
After Week 13, the Chiefs' likelihood of earning home-field advantage throughout the playoffs was a mere 2 percent; it's now 24 percent. Although that means Kansas City's still a 3-to-1 underdog, it nevertheless makes them Denver's No. 1 contender and twice as likely as New England to overtake the Broncos for the top spot. Both Kansas City and Denver are better than 90 percent favorites this weekend, so the battle for home field will likely come down to a pair of West Coast games in Week 17. The Chiefs will need to win as a slight favorite in San Diego (53 percent) and hope the Broncos lose as a huge favorite in Oakland (93 percent).
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No. 6 Miami Dolphins
Current record: 8-6 | Weighted DVOA: -0.8 percent
Projected wins: 9.1
Total playoff odds: 62.1 percent | Weekly change: +9.2 percent
Just a few weeks ago, the Dolphins were in the midst of a wild-card quagmire involving six teams. But thanks to a three-game winning streak, they've separated themselves from the muck (along with Baltimore). And although Miami is technically on the outside looking in at the moment, our simulations say their schedule is likely to propel them ahead of Baltimore for the No. 6 seed. Whereas the Dolphins' remaining opponents (Buffalo and the New York Jets) average minus-13.9 percent weighted DVOA (third-easiest), the Ravens' opponents (New England and Cincinnati) average 17.9 percent weighted DVOA (fourth-toughest).
In the hunt
Baltimore Ravens | 8-6 | Total playoff odds: 41.0 percent
You may notice that Baltimore's and Miami's total playoff odds add up to greater than 100 percent. That's mainly due to the Ravens' 17 percent chance of winning the AFC North. According to our model, the Ravens are underdogs in both of their remaining matchups, with this week's game against New England presenting slightly less of a threat (42 percent win probability) than their Week 17 game at Cincinnati (31 percent).
 
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NFC playoff projections
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No. 1 Seattle Seahawks
Current record: 12-2 | Weighted DVOA: 38.4 percent
Projected wins: 13.6
Total playoff odds: 100.0 percent | Weekly change: +0.0 percent
Unlike in the AFC, there's no hazy picture of the No. 1 seed. Seattle is currently a 98.1 percent favorite to earn home-field advantage. The only way they don't is if they lose both of their remaining games and the 49ers win both of theirs. Given the Seahawks' upcoming opponents (Arizona and St. Louis) and that the games will be played in Seattle, there's only a 2.4 percent chance that they will have to do any scoreboard-watching whatsoever.
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No. 2 New Orleans Saints
Current record: 10-4 | Weighted DVOA: 15.6 percent
Projected wins: 11.1
Total playoff odds: 97.7 percent | Weekly change: -1.8 percent
Considering that New Orleans is coming off of an upset loss to the Rams and now have to face the Panthers in Carolina this weekend, it's surprising to see the Saints as our current favorites for the No. 2 seed (50.7 percent chance). This boils down to one thing: The Saints beat the Panthers two weeks ago, so New Orleans is in a position to clinch a first-round bye this weekend; Carolina is not. To put it another way using our simulations, even if New Orleans loses at Carolina, there's still a 20 percent chance that Week 17 results fall the Saints' way (i.e., a win and a Panthers loss). If the Panthers lose to New Orleans, though, Carolina's chances are literally zero percent.
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No. 3 Philadelphia Eagles
Current record: 8-6 | Weighted DVOA: 11.5 percent
Projected wins: 9.1
Total playoff odds: 70.3 percent | Weekly change: +3.2 percent
The only thing standing in the way of the Week 17 all-or-nothing battle we've been predicting for six weeks is if the Eagles beat the Bears in Philadelphia and the Cowboys lose in Washington. Based on our model, the statistical probability of that happening is 32 percent. Unfortunately, the metaphysical probability -- as dictated by the football gods -- is zero percent, so get your popcorn ready.
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No. 4 Chicago Bears
Current record: 8-6 | Weighted DVOA: 9.1 percent
Projected wins: 9.1
Total playoff odds: 61.1 percent | Weekly change: +34.8 percent
According to current playoff scenarios, the Bears clinch the NFC North this week with a win and a Packers loss and a Lions loss. Unfortunately for Bears fans, given the statistical matchups, our model says that there's only a 6 percent chance this scenario comes to fruition. Of course, the likelihood of a kicker making a 61-yard field goal is just about as low ...
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No. 5 San Francisco 49ers
Current record: 10-4 | Weighted DVOA: 25.1 percent
Projected wins: 11.3
Total playoff odds: 97.8 percent | Weekly change: +6.8 percent
There's only one scenario where San Francisco doesn't make the playoffs: The 49ers lose both of their remaining games, and the Cardinals win both of theirs. That only happened in 2.2 percent of our simulations, mainly because the 49ers are a 95 percent favorite to beat the 4-10 Atlanta Falcons at home this week. Meanwhile, thanks to the Rams upsetting the Saints this past Sunday, San Francisco is now a 71 percent favorite for the No. 5 seed in the NFC, which is quite the turn of events considering their chances of doing so were only 26 percent after losing at New Orleans in Week 11.
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No. 6 Carolina Panthers
Current record: 10-4 | Weighted DVOA: 25.0 percent
Projected wins: 11.3
Total playoff odds: 92.9 percent | Weekly change: -1.0 percent
The Panthers are in a slightly worse situation than the 49ers when it comes to their total playoff odds because they lose both of their remaining games in 7.1 percent of our simulations, as opposed to the 2.2 percent just mentioned for San Francisco. Nevertheless, that's still a highly unlikely result, and the Panthers can all but assure themselves of the No. 2 seed with a win at home against the Saints this week. (They're a 64 percent favorite, according to our projection model.) Although beating the Saints wouldn't officially clinch the NFC South title, because the Saints hold an edge in division record if they both finish 11-5, Carolina gets to play the Falcons (27th-ranked weighted DVOA) in Week 17, while New Orleans hosts the Buccaneers (16th). Those matchups translate to the following: If Carolina wins this week, it will be a 4-to-1 favorite in the division heading into the final weekend of the regular season.
In the hunt
Dallas Cowboys | 7-7 | Total playoff odds: 29.3 percent
Detroit Lions | 7-7 | Total playoff odds: 19.9 percent
Green Bay Packers | 7-6-1 | Total playoff odds: 19.0 percent
Arizona Cardinals | 9-5 | Total playoff odds: 11.6 percent
Since we've already discussed Dallas, Detroit and Green Bay ad infinitum, and this likely will be Arizona's final appearance in the column this season, here's some fun with probability: What are the chances the Cardinals are eliminated from playoff contention this weekend?
Well, that happens if they lose or if both San Francisco and Carolina win. According to our model, there's an 82 percent chance the Cardinals lose at Seattle, and a 61 percent chance that both the 49ers and Panthers win their games. Therefore, the probability that one or the other of those things happens is 0.82 + 0.61 - (0.82 x 0.61), which equals .931 (or 93.1 percent). In other words, there's only a 6.9 percent chance Arizona survives this weekend.
 
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Lord Aldon said:
@Skooby
http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draf...eclares-johnny-manziel-looks-first-round-pick
THANK YOU BROTHER SKOOBY
Click to expand...

Johnny Manziel's draft stock

While we're still awaiting an official declaration from Johnny Manziel on whether he plans to enter the 2014 NFL draft, he's certainly hinted at which way he's leaning. On Thursday, Manziel told reporters, "In my mind, I think I am [ready]." I think the NFL is ready to welcome him, especially given the number of teams that currently need an upgrade at quarterback.

So given where Manziel is in the decision-making process -- not declared but indicating there's a good chance he'll make the jump -- let's look at current strengths and weaknesses and where he could be selected in the draft in May.

Strengths

He's an incredible competitor: When I've talked to coaches about Manziel, particularly the ones who've had to face him, what you hear first isn't about the incredible plays, the improvising or the athleticism and ability to make plays after the play design has fallen apart. They first zero in on his competitiveness and his will. For all the off-field questions that popped up during the summer, what Manziel brought on Saturdays as a competitor can't be questioned, and that resonates.

There's no such thing as a prototype: Manziel often gets compared to Russell Wilson, but a lot of that is just based on height and improvisational skills. And while there's something to be said for those traits, when Wilson was drafted I said he'd be a great test case for what the NFL has viewed as the ideal look of a quarterback. Wilson has succeeded because he's an exceptional player, but also because the Seahawks look for ways to maximize his skills, allowing him to beat defenses with his arm and his legs. Precedent has been set. Coaches seem to have a better sense now of how to do more to allow quarterbacks with various skills succeed, and Manziel should benefit.

Improvising is an NFL skill, too: Wilson is a great improviser -- but so is Peyton Manning, so is Tom Brady, so is Aaron Rodgers. The best quarterbacks are all great improvisers because improvising isn't just about running around, it's first about seeing the whole field, using your feet inside and outside the pocket to extend plays and having the football sense to adjust when plans go awry. Manziel has been a master at the college level, but credit his eyes and his understanding of where the opportunities are, not just his ability to run around. It's a skill he can use on Sundays, too.

Arm strength can improve: Manziel doesn't have a great arm, but he has an adequate one, and he can improve his ability to drive the ball through better mechanics. Manziel doesn't do a great job yet of getting his feet under him to make throws, particularly the intermediate and deep throws that he'll need to make to succeed in the NFL, where you have to stretch defenses or at least keep that threat constant. We've seen many QBs find more velocity as they become more consistent with mechanics, and Manziel can, too.

Questions

Make the pocket your friend: Manziel is a great improviser, but he's often too quick to use his feet not to maneuver in the pocket, but to exit it completely and get out in space. Good passing offenses thrive on timing, and making throws within the rhythm of the play, and if Manziel wants to be great, he'll need to do a better job of using his athleticism and instincts to navigate the tight quarters and throw on time.

The help: At Texas A&M, Manziel has had one of the better bail-out targets in all of college football in Mike Evans. Throw it up to the 6-foot-5 Evans, and what we'd normally call 50-50 balls can often turn into big plays. Texas A&M hasn't been completely loaded, but Manziel has had very good blocking (particularly at tackle), and has gone into many games knowing he was surrounded by superior talent. In the NFL, the difference between the best team and the worst team is typically much closer than the difference between even the best and worst teams in the SEC. He'll need to elevate his game, because huge advantages will disappear.

Dealing with failure ... and waiting: The Aggies have lost some games, but Manziel really hasn't dealt with much failure at the college level. Not only that, he's been a starter since he won the job in camp as a redshirt freshman. We don't yet know how he'll react to a string of rough games, and we don't yet know how he'll react to waiting in line, which could certainly happen.

Face of the franchise: From all I know, Manziel has been a great teammate and is an unquestioned leader on game day and on the practice field. But we know the scrutiny as a starting NFL quarterback extends far beyond the field to dealing with the spotlight, the media requirements, the standards you have to uphold as an endorser of a franchise or in the commercial space. Those are all now a huge part of the game. He has to graduate from a ballplayer to a well-compensated brand name. It'll demand maturity.

Where he stands

I've had Manziel ranked between 10 and 20 on my Big Board for a while now, and he's currently No. 2 among quarterbacks overall, behind Teddy Bridgewater. That puts him squarely in the first round based on my projections. Given the number of teams that need a quarterback, if he performs well during the draft evaluation process -- namely the combine, pro days and in interviewing with and working out for teams -- it wouldn't surprise me at all to see him go inside the top 10, where I see four teams that should be taking a close look at quarterbacks.
 
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954UAlreadyknow said:
http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-col...r-run-reminds-kevin-durant-college-basketball
Click to expand...
The Jabari Parker offense
How can a McDonald's All-American who has played a starring role from day one for arguably the nation's most prominent team possibly be considered underrated? That's a good question, but that may be the case with Duke freshman Jabari Parker.

I know you've heard he's really good, and maybe you've heard he could even supplant Andrew Wiggins as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2014 NBA draft. I'm just not sure that's sufficient praise for Parker's performance, at least on offense. The best comparisons aren't with fellow freshmen Wiggins and Julius Randle. The best would be to compare him with past freshmen like Michael Beasley and Kevin Durant.

Let's get the "it's early" disclaimers out of the way. Yes, it's December.

Maybe Parker will suffer through more games like his 0-for-5 outing from beyond the arc in the Blue Devils' 72-66 loss to Arizona on Nov. 29. In fact, Parker is mired in a 2-for-12 stretch on 3-point attempts. It's a pretty safe bet, then, that coach Mike Krzyzewski's star won't end the season as a 47 percent 3-point shooter, though he can make that claim now as Duke prepares to face UCLA in Madison Square Garden on Thursday (ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET).

I'm taking that into account, and I still wonder whether Parker is being underrated.

Consider that Duke may turn out to have the best offense in the nation at the end of the season -- more specifically, the best offense Krzyzewski has had since his 2009-10 national championship team. And this season's offense relies on Parker to a greater extent than any Duke offense has relied on any single player since J.J. Redikk. I'm not sure either half of that equation -- just how good Duke's offense has been and just how thoroughly it's been based on Parker -- has been fully grasped.


Part of the perceptual problem here may be due to excellence being spread thin: I don't know if Parker has had a true "signature" game yet. (Nor, for that matter, has Duke, speaking of perceptual problems.) He scored 27 points against Kansas on Nov. 12, but the Blue Devils lost 94-83. Arguably, Parker's best performance was his 26-point effort on 10-of-16 shooting Nov. 24 against Vermont, but Duke nearly lost -- which, quite rightly, brought up much criticism of the Blue Devils' defense.

Now, about that defense. Duke's woes on that side of the ball have been well-documented: The Blue Devils are allowing opponents to score better than a point per possession (1.04) and to connect on 52 percent of their 2-pointers.

The players who are on the floor most often by far for the Blue Devils are Quinn Cook, Rodney Hood and Parker, so naturally those three deserve a fair portion of the blame for Duke's poor defensive performance. I'm fine with acknowledging that Parker is no Anthony Davis on D, but that acknowledgment should be accompanied by a recognition that Parker is in many ways a dead ringer for Durant, performance-wise, and may be having the best season on offense of any freshman since Beasley.

With all three of these freshmen -- Durant, Beasley and Parker -- you're talking about a 6-foot-8 or 6-9 star who draws fouls and scores primarily in the paint but is also perfectly comfortable stepping out and shooting a 3. Durant accounted for 34 percent of Texas' shot attempts during his minutes, a figure that matches Parker's current number precisely. And each player had primary responsibility for his team's defensive rebounding, as well. (Defensive rebounding responsibility is one trait shared by all three players, but defensive rebounding performance is where this comparison breaks down. Parker isn't in the same building as freshman-year Beasley at Kansas State on the defensive glass.)

Anthony Bennett, the No. 1 overall pick in 2013, fits this same mold, but what set Durant and Beasley apart was sheer volume. Bennett didn't play nearly as large a role in UNLV's offense in 2012-13 as Durant did at Texas in 2006-07 or (especially) as Beasley did at Kansas State in 2007-08. And right now, Parker's volume is tracking the Durant/Beasley precedent. Parker will have to play an entire season at this level to lock in Durant/Beasley-level praise, naturally, but the mere fact that those names comprise the best description of the Duke freshman's performance to date speaks volumes.

Historical precedents aside, one of the highest compliments to be paid to Parker is simply the fact that Duke as a team has been so trustworthy with the ball. Here you have an offense that's concentrated to an unusual extent on a single freshman, yet that offense has committed a turnover on just 15 percent of its possessions. The Blue Devils are tearing through opposing defenses to the tune of 1.23 points per possession, and they're doing it with an 18-year-old in the driver's seat. Remember that the next time you hear a long sermon on the importance of senior leadership.


Whether Parker is the No. 1 overall pick in the 2014 draft of course will hinge on one general manager's assessment of Parker's potential versus that of Wiggins or someone else. But Parker's value purely as a college player may turn out to be unmatched by any other prospect. He has been on the floor for 536 possessions and is drawing about six fouls per 40 minutes (as a 75 percent free throw shooter) while hitting 57 percent of his 2s. And he's done that while dominating the ball: Parker ranks No. 5 among major-conference players in the percentage of his team's shots he takes during his minutes (behind only Marshall Henderson, Doug McDermott, Roberto Nelson and T.J. Warren).

In Chad Ford's latest 2014 mock draft, my ESPN Insider colleague refers to Parker as "a scoring machine." I'll second that. Jabari Parker is a scoring machine on track to do unusual things even by the lofty standards of one-and-done stars.

The college game will have Parker for another 1,000 minutes of basketball, give or take. My recommendation is to see as many of those minutes as you can.
 
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JUSE_HEDD said:
http://insider.espn.go.com/fantasy/...eat-sheet-last-minute-start-sit-injury-advice
Click to expand...

Top tips

Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington Redskins

The Shanaclan's experiment to feature Cousins as their starting quarterback worked out pretty well in Week 15; maybe they can get a second-round pick for him this offseason after all. From a fantasy perspective, there was a lot to like about Cousins' 21-point day, in the view of Tim Hasselbeck. Cousins had 45 attempts, which is a sign that he's going to be featured, and, although he did face a meager Falcons defense, he gets the Cowboys this week (with no Morris Claiborne).

Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Charles exploded for 51 points in standard scoring in Week 15, and, although he did so for a lot of teams that were already eliminated from the playoffs, he obviously swung a considerable number of matchups, as well. This week, the Chiefs take on the Colts, and their defense isn't as bad as Oakland's, but Eric Karabell still believes Charles is the best option at the flex positions.

Alfred Morris, RB, Washington Redskins

Notice how Cousins was recommended at QB this week based partly on the matchup against Dallas? The guy lining up with him in the Redskins' backfield is facing that same underwhelming defense. Karabell has Morris in his top five at RB this week, over guys such as Adrian Peterson and Eddie Lacy (and well ahead of other analysts' rankings).

Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots

In looking at the Patriots' game film recently, Hasselbeck noticed something: Edelman isn't just playing out of the slot (although he's been good there), he's lining up all over the place, and producing in a variety of ways. He won't be mistaken for a No. 1 WR, but he's producing consistently for his fantasy owners right now, averaging 16.5 fantasy points over the past four weeks, including 19 in Week 15. Edelman is a top-15 WR this week, in Tim's view.

Dennis Pitta, TE, Baltimore Ravens

It's been one good week and one bad week for Pitta since returning to the Ravens' lineup. What to expect this week? Tom Carpenter writes in "Fantasy Checkdown" that, given the matchup against the Patriots, Pitta is an intriguing option this weekend, especially with the injuries to other top TE options.

Playing the matchups

After a down week against Seattle -- and many have had a down week against Seattle -- Kaepernick bounced back with a cool 20 points against Tampa Bay. According to the projections from Scott Kacsmar of Football Outsiders, the good times will keep rolling this week with the Falcons on the docket; it's a plus-4 fantasy point matchup for Kaepernick.

Cam Newton and Drew Brees, QBs, Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints

It's another double "lowered expectations" matchup as the top two teams in the NFC South stage a rematch of their Sunday nighter in Week 14. In that game (played in the dome), Brees looked fine, winding up with 28 points; on the other hand, Newton managed just 14. Unfortunately for the Brees owners in their championship this weekend, this game is being played outdoors at Carolina. It's a minus-5 matchup for Brees, and minus-2 for Newton, per Kacsmar.

Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans

Johnson is universally owned, but he has been a hit-or-miss guy this season, with single-digit games sandwiched in between several outstanding weeks. After an appropriate 15 points in Week 15, he may well be in line for even more against Jacksonville this weekend, as it's a plus-3 point matchup (tied for the best rating among RBs) in the Outsiders' projections.

Michael Crabtree, WR, San Francisco 49ers

The matchup effect for Kaepernick (as described above) trickles down to 49ers wideouts, but there's a reason to believe that Crabtree is unique among them: As Hasselbeck writes, the Niners are certainly featuring the Texas Tech product now that he's healthy again, designing plays to get him working in space. Not only that but, given that he's just getting back, he's still widely available on the waiver wire.

Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers

Allen has caught only five passes in the past two games, but four of the five happen to be touchdowns. So yeah, he's still proving valuable every week as the season winds down. This week, he takes on an Oakland team that is vulnerable through the air, on the ground, at sea, in space … you get the idea. In fact, Allen's breakout game occurred in Week 5 against these same Raiders (17 points). It's a plus-1 point matchup in Kacsmar's estimation.


Injury impact
Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Word came down this week that Rodgers still hasn't been cleared to play, so it'll be another week of the Matt Flynn Experience for the Packers (and risk-taking fantasy owners). The Steelers are visiting Lambeau Field this week, and, although they have the historical identity of a strong defense, they've been vulnerable to the pass this season; Kacsmar writes that Pittsburgh has been particularly generous when it comes to big plays through the air. That's not Flynn's bread and butter, but who knows; after all, if you're starting Flynn, you're pretty desperate anyway.

Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens

Flacco is generally considered to be much less fantasy-relevant than Rodgers, but, then again, here are the point totals for the two over the past seven weeks: Flacco 89, Rodgers 1. Domination! OK, that's not exactly fair, but, in any event, the latest buzz is that Flacco should be fine to play against New England this week. You'd have to be pretty desperate to consider him in fantasy, as Karabell lists 20 other QBs ahead of him this week.

Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Peterson has been listed as questionable for Sunday's game after being limited in practice Wednesday and Friday and sitting out Thursday. It appears he has a fair shot to play, so we won't get another Matt Asiata bomb. If you managed to stay alive without your first-round pick in the playoffs, congrats; looks as if you're finally getting him back this week, and Karabell ranks him No. 8 overall on the flex ranks.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

If only MJD had been healthy this past week, he might've been the one to pad his owners' teams with 14 points against Buffalo. Jones-Drew got in some work this week and is questionable for Sunday; it's an important situation to monitor, as Tennessee has allowed the third most points to opposing RBs this season. Karabell lists Jordan Todman as the No. 40 option in the flex ranks.

Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants

Cruz's season is over after knee surgery, leaving the Giants without their top receiving option as they face the Lions' lackluster pass defense. However, his replacement, Rueben Randle, has shown occasional flash this season and is available in a fair number of leagues right now. As Carpenter acknowledges, however, Eli Manning has had his share of troubles this season, and the matchup with Detroit might not be enough reason to roll the dice with a player such as Randle.


Lottery tickets
Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Tennessee Titans

Fitzpatrick is still owned in just a handful of leagues, but fantasy owners in 2-QB leagues could do much worse than Fitz, who has managed 112 points over the past six weeks (an average of 18.67). Not only has he been productive, but the Titans take on the Jags this week, a point that is not lost on Karabell.

Dennis Johnson, RB, Houston Texans

The Texans are looking to put some good performances on film (to be retained by Houston's new regime or for other teams in the free-agent market), and one player who is getting an extended look this week is Johnson, with Ben Tate put on IR. The Broncos have allowed the seventh most points to opposing RBs this season, but Karabell is quick to caution that Denver might be up big early, which will limit the number of times the Texans run the ball. Still, if you need a lotto ticket, Johnson is a starting RB.

Rod Streater, Andre Holmes, WRs, Oakland Raiders

Denarius Moore is owned in the vast majority of fantasy leagues, but the other two featured WRs in Oakland's offense are not. And, with the gregarious San Diego pass defense on the slate this week, all three pass-catchers crack the top 100 of Karabell's flex rankings.

Doug Baldwin, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Back when the Seahawks acquired Percy Harvin, there was some thought that Baldwin could be released. It's a good thing (for Seattle and for fantasy owners) that this didn't come to pass, as he's become one of the more reliable targets for Russell Wilson (and for the handful of folks who have started him of late). With 61 points over the past six games, Karabell cites him as a player he'd start over such alternatives as Randle and stashed him in the No. 83 slot in the flex ranks.

Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers

Ladarius Green has emerged as the dominant TE of the future in San Diego, but Gates can still have his moments. We've spent some time lambasting the Raiders' defense, and Gates is one of the folks playing against them this week, too. Carpenter calls him a "sneaky play."

Big question of the week
For the leagues that staged their championship week in Week 15, Charles was the big difference-maker, and anyone who owned him this season was obviously starting him. But could we see a more under-the-radar player -- Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, etc. -- who isn't universally started be the weekend's big scorer? Such is the joy (and frustration) of fantasy sports, and it makes all the time we spend doing our homework worthwhile. Good luck this weekend!
 
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