no worries my man enjoy your time off and have a nice thanks giving if we don't hear from you @ the coli.
We appreciate everything that you do.
Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)
- Thread starter the cool
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no worries my man enjoy your time off and have a nice thanks giving if we don't hear from you @ the coli.
We appreciate everything that you do.
The War Report
NewNewYork
Does Ohio State have a beef?
Mel Kiper: It has been 693 days since Ohio State lost a football game. They've been discounted by the polls as a true threat to either Alabama or Florida State in large part because of the questions about competition, and by an extension of that, the degree with which they dominate that competition.
But there's a point where you have to step back and consider the significance of what it means to just never lose football games, especially when it's so common to see really good teams beaten on the road in conference. Ask Stanford; ask Oregon; ask Florida State last year; ask Alabama last year; ask Baylor this week.
And when Urban Meyer takes issue with the BCS, instead of pointing out the flaws in his team, you may want to put yourself in his shoes. He's in a major conference, he keeps winning games in mostly dominating fashion, and yet he's essentially left to defend his team. What do you have to defend about never losing, and beating opponents by 30-plus points on average? Well, plenty, it seems. And while I have Florida State and Alabama just ahead of Ohio State right now in terms of where I'd rank them, there are a few reasons OSU has legit beef with being left out of all the title projections so far:
1. They've dealt with some adversity in terms of personnel. Carlos Hyde was out at the beginning of the season. Braxton Miller missed time, and even when he came back, he was clearly limited. If you saw Miller play at Northwestern -- a game critics will point to as a night where OSU wasn't dominant enough -- it's clear you weren't seeing him at 100 percent. Meyer probably feels his team is just starting to reach its potential.
2. The defense is young and could get better. The Buckeyes have gotten big contributions from true freshman Joey Bosa, sophomore linemen Noah Spence and Adolphus Washington, sophomore LB Joshua Perry and even freshman DB Tyvis Powell. Defense had been an issue earlier this season, something you could expect after losing seven starters from last season, but it's a unit that has gotten better, and I'm sure Meyer would relish the chance to work with them for another month-plus to see where they could be by the time they played a Bama or FSU.
3. Strength of schedule isn't something you can completely control. How could OSU have assumed the Big Ten would do them no favors at all? When you play in a good conference, with a conference title game at the end, going out of your way to schedule out of conference wouldn't seem necessary. OSU has been unlucky with Cal being so bad, Penn State being down and now with Michigan clearly in a tailspin. We like to knock schedules, but when you play in the Big Ten, it's pretty hard to assume you'd have so few opportunities to show off against good competition.
I'm not saying Ohio State is clearly at the same level of FSU or Bama right now. But it's hard to blame them for wanting a shot to prove it. After all, the last time they were big underdogs in a BCS title game, they won it.
Todd McShay: I do think that Meyer and Ohio State have a legitimate beef, at least when it comes to the seemingly agreed-upon assumption that Alabama and Florida State are the clear Nos. 1 and 2 and a lock to play in the national championship game. I do think that the Crimson Tide are clearly the most deserving team of a BCS title shot, but in my opinion the gap between the Seminoles and Buckeyes is closer than the national perception.
OSU had some early-season struggles, which is when FSU separated itself with a series of impressive wins, but the Buckeyes are now peaking at the right time. Miller is playing a lot more naturally in his second year in Meyer's system; he knows where to go with the ball and what reads he has to make. He's also back to being healthy after the early-season injury, and is his usual dangerous self as a runner. Having Hyde back up to full speed at running back has been huge for the offense as well, after he missed the start of the season because of suspension. He is a bully of an inside runner. Even though the schedule hasn't been great, it's pretty clear that this offense has improved throughout the season.
And while this is by no means a great defense, it is a competitive unit that is continuing to improve. The Buckeyes are playing with more discipline in coverage, and cornerback Bradley Roby is gambling less and cutting down on his mistakes. And Ryan Shazier has always been a great player. He played out of his mind against Indiana, recording 20 tackles as the Buckeyes held a good Hoosiers offense to zero points outside of garbage time.
However, even with all of those factors working in the Buckeyes' favor, I still believe FSU has a slight edge over them for the No. 2 spot in the BCS standings, in terms of which team is more deserving. Not only do the Noles stack up favorably in the subjective part of the equation -- they are a very talented team that has put together some impressive wins this season -- but the numbers favor them as well. They rank No. 2 behind Alabama in ESPN's new Championship Drive Rating, while Ohio State ranks fifth, and their strength of schedule is slightly better than the Buckeyes' (81st nationally versus 86th).
Even though I think an undefeated FSU should get the nod over an undefeated OSU, I would never fault Meyer or any head coach for doing any politicking surrounding the BCS standings. He's the one charged with telling a locker room full of 100-plus players who have gone out and won every game and laid it on the line for him and his coaching staff that a 13-0 record (if they win out) isn't good enough, so he has every right to try to campaign for his team. Thankfully we have only one year left of this awful system for deciding a national championship matchup, but for this season, what else is Meyer supposed to do?
On the rise
Kiper: Jordan Matthews, WR, Vanderbilt
On Saturday, Matthews had another 13 catches, getting him to 96 on the season. Matthews won't lead the country in receptions this season, but to put that total in perspective, consider that the next highest total among Vandy pass-catchers is 35. Matthews has caught 61 more passes than the next closest player on his team. I bring up that disparity because every team that plays Vandy knows Matthews is going to be targeted, and nobody seems capable of stopping him. His lowest catch total of the season came against Florida (and their great CBs) when he caught five.
The knock on Matthews is he isn't stopwatch fast -- he'll run in the mid-4.5 range -- but he plays fast in pads. He's got good size at close to 6-foot-3 and about 215 pounds, he's a very good route runner, has huge hands and is a film junkie who prepares well. He generally does a good job of catching the ball away from his body, but does let the ball get to his pads on occasion, and should work to limit that. The big question will be if NFL evaluators think Matthews can beat cornerbacks deep. But right now he's a likely second-round pick with a shot at Round 1.
McShay: Derek Carr, QB, Fresno State Bulldogs
I was really impressed by Boston College RB Andre Williams and Arizona RB Ka'Deem Carey this weekend, but I'll go with Carr here. Carr threw for 527 yards and a school-record seven touchdowns in the Bulldogs' blowout win over New Mexico. Fresno State is undefeated heading into its final regular-season game and in position to become this season's BCS buster. I would love to see how Carr performs in a BCS bowl against what would presumably be the best competition he and the Bulldogs have faced this season.
Carr is mature with good leadership skills and football intelligence. He has very good touch and timing as a passer and good arm strength. His deep-ball accuracy and accuracy when staring down pass-rushers are areas that he needs to improve. He already has accepted an invitation to play in the 2014 Senior Bowl; he has improved his stock this season, and with a strong showing there he could lock down a spot on Day 2.
Almost famous
Kiper: Jerick McKinnon, RB, Georgia Southern
Want a little versatility? How about a player who has been a returner, a cornerback, a quarterback and now a running back -- and McKinnon has been pretty good everywhere you put him. On Saturday against Florida, McKinnon had nine carries for 125 yards, and it's not as though the Gators had no idea the run was coming. Georgia Southern didn't complete a pass the entire game.
McKinnon is compact but powerful at about 5-9 and 215 pounds, with quick feet and the ability to accelerate quickly in space (he was a track star in high school) to run away from defenders; he has a great burst to the outside. I also like how well he blocks, a necessity in that offense. He'll need to show teams he can catch it, too, but he could be at the Senior Bowl and impress his way into being a mid-round pick.
McShay: Terrence Fede, DE, Marist Red Foxes
After Kiper stole my pick this week of McKinnon, I contracted out a Northeast area scout named Trey Wingo -- Mel, you may have heard of him -- to pound the pavement in search of a legit NFL prospect who would fly under Kiper's radar. Wingo delivered with a highly productive pass-rusher in Fede.
Fede has a thick and muscular frame with good strength and above-average movement skills for his size. He has adequate but not great initial burst, and can swallow real estate quickly with his long stride. He has playmaking instincts, long arms and is a good tackler and good finisher when he's in position.
If Fede performs well against better competition in a postseason all-star game, he has a very good chance of being drafted on Day 3. He can contribute in the NFL if he improves his leverage and develops speed-to-power moves.
The big question
Kiper: Can Auburn run the ball on Alabama?
Over the past eight weeks, the lowest rushing total Auburn has put up is 213 yards. Six times this season they've run for over 300 yards; three times they've eclipsed 400 yards. Gus Malzahn feels this team can run on anybody. But now the unstoppable force runs into the immovable object -- except we really don't know if Alabama's run defense is so immovable. The Tide might allow only 91 yards per game on the ground, but they're also so often playing from ahead teams can't truly commit to the run. This isn't one of those games where I think Malzahn would be counterintuitive and start throwing it around just because he thinks Bama won't expect it. He has real talent up front -- Greg Robinson at left tackle in particular is a great one -- and I think he's going to see if that Bama defense will bend. If it does, Auburn has a chance.
McShay: How will Texas A&M bounce back from its LSU loss, and how will Missouri play with the pressure of its SEC title shot on the line?
There are lots of intriguing options in this game, but the most interesting one to me is how the Aggies offensive line -- anchored by OTs Jake Matthews and Cedric Ogbuehi -- fares against Missouri's defensive line, which features DE Michael Sam (10 sacks) and DT Kony Ealy (6.5 sacks). They are two of the best units in college football, with four of the nation's premier players at their respective positions.
Kiper: Jerick McKinnon, RB, Georgia Southern
Want a little versatility? How about a player who has been a returner, a cornerback, a quarterback and now a running back -- and McKinnon has been pretty good everywhere you put him. On Saturday against Florida, McKinnon had nine carries for 125 yards, and it's not as though the Gators had no idea the run was coming. Georgia Southern didn't complete a pass the entire game.
McKinnon is compact but powerful at about 5-9 and 215 pounds, with quick feet and the ability to accelerate quickly in space (he was a track star in high school) to run away from defenders; he has a great burst to the outside. I also like how well he blocks, a necessity in that offense. He'll need to show teams he can catch it, too, but he could be at the Senior Bowl and impress his way into being a mid-round pick.
McShay: Terrence Fede, DE, Marist Red Foxes
After Kiper stole my pick this week of McKinnon, I contracted out a Northeast area scout named Trey Wingo -- Mel, you may have heard of him -- to pound the pavement in search of a legit NFL prospect who would fly under Kiper's radar. Wingo delivered with a highly productive pass-rusher in Fede.
Fede has a thick and muscular frame with good strength and above-average movement skills for his size. He has adequate but not great initial burst, and can swallow real estate quickly with his long stride. He has playmaking instincts, long arms and is a good tackler and good finisher when he's in position.
If Fede performs well against better competition in a postseason all-star game, he has a very good chance of being drafted on Day 3. He can contribute in the NFL if he improves his leverage and develops speed-to-power moves.
The big question
Kiper: Can Auburn run the ball on Alabama?
Over the past eight weeks, the lowest rushing total Auburn has put up is 213 yards. Six times this season they've run for over 300 yards; three times they've eclipsed 400 yards. Gus Malzahn feels this team can run on anybody. But now the unstoppable force runs into the immovable object -- except we really don't know if Alabama's run defense is so immovable. The Tide might allow only 91 yards per game on the ground, but they're also so often playing from ahead teams can't truly commit to the run. This isn't one of those games where I think Malzahn would be counterintuitive and start throwing it around just because he thinks Bama won't expect it. He has real talent up front -- Greg Robinson at left tackle in particular is a great one -- and I think he's going to see if that Bama defense will bend. If it does, Auburn has a chance.
McShay: How will Texas A&M bounce back from its LSU loss, and how will Missouri play with the pressure of its SEC title shot on the line?
There are lots of intriguing options in this game, but the most interesting one to me is how the Aggies offensive line -- anchored by OTs Jake Matthews and Cedric Ogbuehi -- fares against Missouri's defensive line, which features DE Michael Sam (10 sacks) and DT Kony Ealy (6.5 sacks). They are two of the best units in college football, with four of the nation's premier players at their respective positions.
Beware of NBA's biggest ball hogs
It may be Black Friday for most folks, but here in the land of Per Diem, today is Black Hole Friday.
Yes, Black Hole Friday.
On Thanksgiving Day, I identified the players who should be giving thanks for their buckets and to whom they owe their gratitude. But we're going to look at the flip side on Black Hole Friday: where basketballs go but never come back. The ball hogs. The gunners.
We have a brand-spanking-new trove of numbers from SportVU that will help us expose those who monopolize the basketball and keep it from their teammates. No longer must we be shackled by the confines of the box score. Thanks to 3-D cameras in every arena, we can see exactly how many passes a player makes, how many seconds he possesses the ball, and how often he dribbles.
In other words, we can identify the biggest ball hogs in the game. For these purposes, we're going to go by the purest sense of the term: the player who hogs the ball and rarely passes. To identify those, we'll see how many seconds each player possesses the ball on average between passes. In the chart below, I've listed the player's average time of possession in seconds (TOP) and his average passes per game, which I'll use to arrive at his average hog rate, which is expressed in seconds.
Those names?
TOP 10 BALL HOGS IN THE NBA
Longest time of possession between passes (minimum 250 minutes; stats through Tuesday)
PlayerTeamMPGTOPPassesHog Rate
Russell WestbrookOKC33.539050.27.8 seconds
Brandon JenningsDET35.443259.17.3 seconds
Stephen CurryGSW34.036650.77.2 seconds
Victor OladipoORL27.625835.97.2 seconds
Eric BledsoePHO34.939056.36.9 seconds
Isaiah ThomasSAC28.631246.36.7 seconds
James HardenHOU39.527041.46.5 seconds
Damian LillardPOR36.942064.56.5 seconds
Ty LawsonDEN36.438459.66.4 seconds
Goran DragicPHO33.233652.66.4 seconds
Kyrie IrvingCLE34.636056.46.4 seconds
As we can see here, Westbrook possesses the ball for 7.8 seconds between passes, which is the highest rate in the league by a healthy margin. That's not an indictment on only him. Thunder coach Scott Brooks doesn't escape blame, either, as his offensive system doesn't exactly predicate itself on ball movement. But it's worth noting that Westbrook's backup, Reggie Jackson, possesses the ball for 5.8 seconds on average between passes (although to be fair, more than a quarter of Jackson's minutes have come alongside Westbrook, where he's not bringing up the ball).
This certainly won't help Westbrook's reputation next to Kevin Durant, perhaps the best scoring weapon in the game. At this pace, Westbrook will have one of the least efficient high usage seasons ever, as he's using 33 percent of the Thunder's possessions on the floor while registering a pathetic 47.2 percent true shooting percentage (Durant is currently at 61.3 percent). Westbrook may want to defer to Durant more as the point guard struggles to return from his knee injury.
Elsewhere on the list, you may be surprised to find Curry, who's averaging a career-high 8.8 assists this season. But Curry makes his passes count; 18 percent of his passes turn into assists, which is the highest rate in the league, even above Chris Paul. Yes, it helps to have Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala andDavid Lee around. Also, it's hard to fault Curry for "hogging" the ball when he's one of the most efficient point guards in the game; Westbrook doesn't have that excuse.
On the other end of the spectrum, Jose Calderon holds the ball for just 4 seconds between passes, the lowest rate among point guards. Calderon wastes no time to get the ball moving to his teammates.
Who's the most selfless player in the league by this metric? Shane Battier, who was once dubbed by The New York Times as "The No Stats All-Star." Here's a Battier stat for you: the Heat veteran wing averages one pass per second of possession this season. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra emphasizes constant ball movement in his "pace-and-space" offense, and Battier represents the ideal. If Battier dribbles, something's gone horribly wrong.
All of the players on the above list are ball handlers, which makes sense if you're looking for a pure ball hog. But that's not typically what we imagine ball hogs to be. If you've ever played pickup ball, you know the Black Hole guy. He's the one who never gives the ball back. As soon as you pass him the ball, better run back on defense -- the shot's going up.
We didn't incorporate shots in that last metric, but how can we talk about ball hogging without shots? Let's correct that. Here's a list of players who have the lowest rates of passes per shot attempt, or what I like to call the Black Hole Rate. The passing and shooting numbers below are listed on a per-game basis.
TOP 10 BLACK HOLES IN THE NBA
Lowest rate of passes per shot attempt (minimum 250 minutes and 10 shots per game; stats through Tuesday's games)
PlayerTeamPassesShotsBlack Hole Rate
Klay ThompsonGSW19.915.31.30
Eric GordonNO20.212.91.56
Nick YoungLAL16.910.71.58
Marcus ThorntonSAC17.210.61.63
Rudy GayTOR33.520.31.65
DeMar DeRozanTOR33.219.31.72
J.J. RedikkLAC21.212.11.76
Kevin MartinMIN30.917.51.77
Carmelo AnthonyNYK39.822.21.79
Dion WaitersCLE23.112.41.86
Well, if you can shoot it like Thompson, maybe you can get away with not sharing the ball. But the Golden State shooting guard fires up nearly as many shots as passes when he's out there, which is pretty remarkable. The Warriors probably don't care, as long as he continues shooting 50 percent from the floor and 46.8 percent from downtown.
We can't say the same for Gordon, Thornton or Gay, who have collectively shot 38.3 percent from the floor this season. These are the Black Hole guys you don't want to see on your team. For perspective, Gay fires up five more shots per game than James, but dishes out 14 fewer passes. Also, Gay is shooting 37.5 percent from the floor. In related news, Gay has banned his team from looking at the stat sheets in the locker room.
Another interesting player on this list is Redikk, who has transformed his game since his Orlando days. Before he was traded to the Milwaukee Bucks last season, Redikk averaged 4.4 assists per game as a primary playmaker for the talent-deprived Magic. Now playing for the Clippers, he has left the playmaking duties up to Paul, which is probably the smart move. As a result, Redikk's dishing numbers have taken a dive.
Like Redikk and Thompson, Martin is out there to shoot, and he does it well. The rest of the list features the usual suspects in Anthony, Waiters and DeRozan. Feel free to pass it to them, because their respective franchises have hinged their playoff hopes on their success. Just don't expect the ball back.
Has Wilson claimed young QB crown?
Robert Griffin III, Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson alternated turns in the NFL's young quarterback spotlight last season. Griffin set the rookie record for passer rating. Kaepernick set playoff records on his way to the Super Bowl. Luck transformed a 2-14 team into an 11-5 contender. Wilson tied the rookie record for touchdown passes.
Their paths have diverged some lately. Griffin, Kaepernick and Luck have combined for a 2-7 record, 78.9 passer rating and 33.8 Total QBR score over the past three weeks. The figures are quite different for Wilson in his past three games. His Seattle Seahawks are 3-0. His passer rating (123.2) and QBR score (88.6) have surged in those games.
"I think it is unfair to these guys almost to keep their stock report based on wins and losses or what they did last week," a general manager contended recently.
The GM is right. Careers aren't defined over short stretches. But we're not talking about just three games here or there. With Wilson trailing only Peyton Manning in passer rating and QBR since Week 8 of last season, it was worth asking whether the Seahawks' second-year starter might be pulling away from the others in general -- and specifically from Luck, who was regarded as the top passing prospect in a generation. The numbers are striking, but they do not tell the full story.
Luck vs. Wilson: Last 22 Starts
QBWilsonLuck
W-L18-415-7
Comp.363459
Att.555817
Pct.65.456.2
Yards4,8225,581
YPA8.76.8
TD-INT40-1031-19
Passer rating109.380.3
Sacked5552
Rushes14689
Rush yards906437
Rush TD66
Rush FD5429
Total QBR75.059.8
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
Wilson assumed an upward trajectory beginning with his final 11 games last season, counting the playoffs. Now 11 games into his second season, Wilson has put together a 22-game body of work featuring 40 touchdown passes, six rushing touchdowns, 10 interceptions and an 18-4 starting record. Luck hasn't been bad in comparison by any stretch, but in comparing corresponding stat lines in the chart at right, Wilson would seem to come out ahead by just about every measure.
No two quarterbacks operate under identical circumstances, of course. Advanced metrics can be helpful, but Total QBR in its current form assumes an average supporting cast. It doesn't know when Wilson is playing without three starting offensive linemen. It doesn't know the Colts were a 2-14 team without Luck, or that they traded a first-round draft choice for an underperforming running back in Trent Richardson. These sorts of things tend to even out over time. In the short term, the numbers can provide welcome perspective to supplement thoughts from people in the business of player evaluation.
"I think Luck is ahead of the others," the GM said. "Russell will never be able to close the gap on that one. Part of it is, just genetically, he cannot see over the line sometimes. But all these guys have strengths and weaknesses. Kaepernick is still about the same guy from last year, but last year he made big plays running. It naturally becomes an emotional assessment of these guys. All these guys are young. I always laugh when a guy is a year and a half in and we're like, 'Is it time?' Really? You're going to make a change? Everyone will go through a slump."
A higher bar to clear
The next table shows strong correlation between Total QBR scores and team winning percentages. It will ultimately provide context for Luck and Wilson in particular. Scores range from zero to 100, with 50 representing average play. Peyton Manning leads regular starters this season with a 79.4 score. Andy Dalton is at 50.1. Brandon Weeden is at 23.9. Wilson (64.2) and Luck (62.8) are in the same range this season, with Luck deriving disproportionate value from timely rushes.
2006-Present Records by Total QBR Score
QBR Score RangeWLPct.
90 and up36124.938
80-8934075.819
70-79314122.720
60-69230153.601
50-59220172.561
40-49180204.469
30-39136257.346
20-2992311.228
10-1957312.154
Less than 1035335.095
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
We usually use the scores to measure a quarterback's contributions to winning, but the numbers also can reveal what a QB is up against depending upon the strength of his team's defense. Luck has a much higher bar to clear.
The Colts' opponents have posted a 58.1 QBR score since Luck arrived. The figure has been 45.8 for the Seahawks' opponents with Wilson. All else equal, Wilson could expect to win about 54 percent of the time, compared to 42 percent for Luck. But all else has not been equal. Seattle has had a much stronger defense. Nine of the 29 starting quarterbacks to face Seattle during the Wilson era finished those games with QBR scores south of 20. Seven more failed to reach 40. The Colts defense has held only six of 28 opposing starters beneath 40. That is a big, big difference. One for which Luck has directly had to compensate.
The Colts have needed more from their quarterback to win games consistently. Pass attempts are one part of the equation. Luck has attempted 42.8 per game, compared to 30.8 for Wilson. The gap in their teams' QB dependence shines through in the QBR numbers as well. Indy has a 15-1 record (.938) when Luck posts a QBR score above 60 and a 3-9 record (.250) the rest of the time. That's about as QB-reliant as a team could be. The Seahawks' winning percentage is actually higher when Wilson's QBR is below 60 (10-3, .769) than when it is above that mark (12-4, .750). Seattle's relative strength in other areas is a great equalizer.
The disparity comes as no shock. Luck joined a team that had posted a 2-14 record the year before. Seattle had twice gone 7-9 before Wilson became the Seahawks' starter.
"I'm sure Luck would kill for a Marshawn Lynch-like running game right now and that is what they tried to get with Richardson," ESPN.com NFL scout Matt Williamson said. "But Wilson has been under pressure a ton. I'm not sure I can come up with two QBs who have been under more pressure than these guys. Seattle has a much better team and that is huge. But it's not like Wilson hasn't had to make plays. He is like Fran Tarkenton. He doesn’t run to make yardage, he runs to buy time."
2013 Passes 20+ Yards Downfield
QBWilsonLuck
Comp.2313
Att.4242
Pct.54.831.0
Yards739476
YPA17.611.3
TD-INT6-24-1
Passer rating119.596.9
SackedN/AN/A
Total QBR99.973.3
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
Wilson has settled into his second season in the same system with the same coaches. The Colts changed offensive coordinators and offensive schemes. Luck knew the system well because he ran a similar version at Stanford, but points of emphasis have changed. Last season, Luck completed a league-high 35 passes on throws traveling at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. He has completed only 13 such passes this season. Wilson has completed 23, one off the league lead, and his 54.8 completion rate on such throws ranks first among qualifying quarterbacks.
While the Seahawks are getting stronger with linemen Russell Okung, Breno Giacomini and receiver Percy Harvin joining the lineup, the Colts recently lost receiver Reggie Wayne. They previously lost tight end Dwayne Allen and running back Ahmad Bradshaw. All are done for the season.
"On Luck, I think losing Reggie Wayne hurts him," the GM said. "You should naturally think that takes them a couple minutes to re-sort this thing and figure out their strengths and weaknesses. You have to live through it on the field with what the other teams will do to you. That is a tough loss. That is the loss in Luck's case that moves the chains."
Closing thoughts
Luck was a near-unanimous top choice when we asked experienced personnel evaluators to identify the five current NFL players they would like to build around. No other Colts players drew consideration, but there were a couple of Seahawks in the conversation, including cornerback Richard Sherman and safetyEarl Thomas. That also spoke to overall roster strength.
The recent blowout defeats Indy suffered against St. Louis and Arizona haven't changed analysts' opinions of Luck to even the slightest degree. They still see Luck as a nearly perfect prospect, a once-in-a-generation talent making the best of an imperfect situation. They love what they see from Wilson as well, but given a choice between two smart players with all the intangibles and dynamic running ability, they'll take the 6-foot-4 version over the 5-foot-11 one, even though the gap is much smaller than anyone could have reasonably expected it to be.
QBWilsonLuck
Comp.2313
Att.4242
Pct.54.831.0
Yards739476
YPA17.611.3
TD-INT6-24-1
Passer rating119.596.9
SackedN/AN/A
Total QBR99.973.3
Source: ESPN Stats & Information
Wilson has settled into his second season in the same system with the same coaches. The Colts changed offensive coordinators and offensive schemes. Luck knew the system well because he ran a similar version at Stanford, but points of emphasis have changed. Last season, Luck completed a league-high 35 passes on throws traveling at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. He has completed only 13 such passes this season. Wilson has completed 23, one off the league lead, and his 54.8 completion rate on such throws ranks first among qualifying quarterbacks.
While the Seahawks are getting stronger with linemen Russell Okung, Breno Giacomini and receiver Percy Harvin joining the lineup, the Colts recently lost receiver Reggie Wayne. They previously lost tight end Dwayne Allen and running back Ahmad Bradshaw. All are done for the season.
"On Luck, I think losing Reggie Wayne hurts him," the GM said. "You should naturally think that takes them a couple minutes to re-sort this thing and figure out their strengths and weaknesses. You have to live through it on the field with what the other teams will do to you. That is a tough loss. That is the loss in Luck's case that moves the chains."
Closing thoughts
Luck was a near-unanimous top choice when we asked experienced personnel evaluators to identify the five current NFL players they would like to build around. No other Colts players drew consideration, but there were a couple of Seahawks in the conversation, including cornerback Richard Sherman and safetyEarl Thomas. That also spoke to overall roster strength.
The recent blowout defeats Indy suffered against St. Louis and Arizona haven't changed analysts' opinions of Luck to even the slightest degree. They still see Luck as a nearly perfect prospect, a once-in-a-generation talent making the best of an imperfect situation. They love what they see from Wilson as well, but given a choice between two smart players with all the intangibles and dynamic running ability, they'll take the 6-foot-4 version over the 5-foot-11 one, even though the gap is much smaller than anyone could have reasonably expected it to be.
ill
Superstar
AUBURN, Ala. -- Back in April, when I visited with Auburn Tigers first-year defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson, he had seen enough to know the Tigers would be a good team. Not a great team, but a good team.
“It’s probably a seven- or eight-win team,” said Johnson, who's as honest as any coach in the country. “I think people here would be happy with that.”
Coming off Auburn's three-win 2012 season, the one that featured zero SEC wins, that was probably a pretty fair assessment.
But the Tigers are probably OK with their current lot in life. Consecutive miracle wins, including Saturday’s Iron Bowl classic, have delivered 11-1 Auburn to the SEC title game. Makes you wish you’d put a buck or two on Auburn at 200-to-1 BCS national title odds back in August, doesn’t it?
As improbable as this current Auburn run has been, there's a legitimate case to be made that the Tigers deserve a shot at the national title if they beat Missouri in the SEC championship game next week.
That’s where we begin this week’s Takeaways, which also include a look at whether Auburn is the early favorite to win a down SEC in 2014, Kevin Sumlin’s new deal at Texas A&M and whether USC should keep Ed Orgeron as its head coach. (Also, Steve Spurrier lets me know he isn’t retiring.)
1. Auburn has more of a case to play for the BCS title than Ohio State
When we briefly kicked around the idea earlier in the week, ESPN BCS guru Brad Edwards didn’t seem to think Auburn would have much of a shot at overtaking undefeated Ohio State even if the Tigers got another top-five win next week to claim the SEC title, because there's no precedent for an undefeated power-conference team to be leapfrogged by a one-loss team.
There's certainly more of a discussion about it now, and I am among those who believe that the Tigers have built enough of a case to move ahead of the Buckeyes, if both win their conference championship games next week. And no, that’s not just me sipping the Kool-Aid Auburn athletic director Jay Jacobs handed out after the Bama win.
Here's why:
• Auburn’s one loss came on Sept. 21, to LSU (currently 9-3). It was in Baton Rouge, where LSU is 31-1 since 2009. That loss is fairly excusable.
If the idea of the Tigers leapfrogging Ohio State, despite their one loss, is outrageous to you, then consider the wins on the resumes of both Auburn and Ohio State. Heading into this week’s conference title games, Auburn has defeated three top-20 teams in ESPN's Football Power Index (a metric designed to determine who the best teams are, not the most deserving), and it will add a fourth if it beats Missouri. Ohio State has beaten one, and that one -- No. 12 Wisconsin -- was just soundly defeated at home by Penn State. Auburn has two more wins against teams ranked 21-40 in the FPI, while Ohio State has one, and will add another if it beats Michigan State in the Big Ten championship.
So if you're keeping score, in the event that both teams win their conference title games, Auburn will have four top-20 wins to Ohio State's one, and six top-40 wins to Ohio State's three.
• Before Saturday’s results, I don’t think I would have given the Tigers much of a chance in a head-to-head against the Buckeyes.
But two things happened: 1. The Buckeyes surrendered 603 yards and 41 points to a Michigan offense that hadn’t mustered that in several weeks combined. 2. Auburn rushed for 296 yards against Alabama, when the Tide came in allowing just 91 yards per game on the ground. “That’s just what we do,” Tigers running back Corey Grant said. “We’re going to stick to what we do and that’s what we did.”
Jay Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hilton wrote in an email Saturday night that as of right now, Ohio State would likely be a 1.5-point favorite on a neutral field against Auburn, but "it's very close" and some might have the Tigers listed as a slight favorite. In the FPI, Ohio State is currently ranked seventh, while Auburn is eighth.
In other words, it's a toss-up when it comes to which is the "better" team. So Auburn's résumé advantage breaks the tie in favor of the Tigers.
2. Will Auburn enter 2014 as the SEC favorite?
A part of you wants to say, "No, Auburn keeps winning fluke games, so it isn’t built for the future." But the fact that Auburn has developed an identity as a no-huddle team that can run the ball so effectively could make the Tigers a very trendy SEC pick in 2014.
[+] Enlarge
AP Photo/Jay SailorsQB Nick Marshall's running ability has had a huge impact on Auburn's offense.
There are plenty of players returning for Auburn, including running backs Grant,Cameron Artis-Payne and Tre Mason, and quarterback Nick Marshall. When I teased Johnson on Friday about his “seven- or eight-win” offseason prognostication, he said, “Well, that was before Nick Marshall got here.” He said Auburn’s offense was struggling in the spring against his modestly talented defense, and then Marshall appeared during the summer months and provided a running element from the QB spot.
There’s something to big-game experience, too. Johnson said his players were overeager, getting out of position and making mistakes, against Georgia. It led to the Bulldogs’ big comeback attempt. He was concerned they would again try to do too much against Alabama. “We just need them to play within the scheme,” Johnson said. “We don’t need superheroes.”
For the most part, Auburn’s players managed that well during the course of the Iron Bowl. And the larger point is that the Tigers have now been there, and they’ll get more big-game experience this week in Atlanta.
When I spoke with coach Gus Malzahn on Friday, he said his goal was to “not make [the Iron Bowl] any bigger than it is.” He’s OK with it being big now, I imagine. It was a neat scene after Saturday's game, with Malzahn standing at the entrance of the team’s locker room, hugging each player as he left the chaotic scene on the field.
Part of Auburn’s future success will be based on the fact that 2014 looks like somewhat of a down year for the conference, generally. Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina and Texas A&M are among the teams losing highly successful quarterbacks. Florida and Arkansas are a mess.
Ole Miss could become a sleeper pick in the West, and LSU and Alabama figure to reload as usual. But Auburn’s nonconference schedule includes San Jose State, Kansas State, Louisiana Tech and Samford. Based on what we've seen of them this season, why couldn’t the Tigers be a 2014 playoff contender?
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3. Wait, are we picking on Ohio State?
I saw a thought late Saturday from ESPN's Austin Ward: Why do we consider Florida State any differently than we do Ohio State? It's a fair question. After all, the Buckeyes currently rank 64th nationally in strength of schedule, while the Seminoles rank 68th.
The answer is “the eye test.” FSU has absolutely dominated its competition. The Seminoles have won by an average of 42.7 points a game this season, while Ohio State has won its 12 games by an average margin of 27.9 points. Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hilton wrote that a BCS title game line between FSU and Ohio State would have the Seminoles favored by about 11.5 points.
It might not seem fair to selectively apply the résumé test to Auburn versus Ohio State and not to Auburn versus Florida State, but the difference is that the Seminoles are viewed as the clearly superior team, whereas the Tigers and Buckeyes are comparable.
4. Kevin Sumlin’s new deal maintains Texas A&M's recruiting momentum
Texas A&M on Saturday seemingly headed off overtures from USC and the NFL when it announced a new six-year deal to keep coach Kevin Sumlin. But perhaps more than anything, it’s a move that will help lock up the Aggies' 2014 recruiting class, currently ranked fifth nationally by ESPN's RecruitingNation. Sumlin wanted to let the recruits know he would be back. Sumlin’s third season figures to include a lot of turnover, and transition into “his” players. So maintaining this particular class is vital for the 2014 season and beyond.
Based on my time around Sumlin and the program, I do believe he considered the prospect of an offer from USC. More than money -- he was going to get a salary bump no matter what -- I think it came down to where he wanted to raise his family. Sumlin has four kids, and the pace of life in Texas versus Los Angeles was a big piece of the puzzle.
Now, if the Houston Texans one day come calling, this six-year deal might be rendered moot. That could be the perfect confluence of an NFL job and staying in the same part of the country.
5. Ed Orgeron and (recent) history of hiring interims
USC couldn’t quite complete the fairy-tale ending to its season, losing 35-14 to UCLA on Saturday, but the new Sumlin deal could theoretically boost Coach O’s chances of having the interim tag lifted.
[+] Enlarge
Stephen Dunn/Getty ImagesWill Ed Orgeron be USC AD Pat Haden's pick as the Trojans' next full-time head coach?
I’ve heard some analysts say AD Pat Haden has to keep Orgeron, because it would upset the chemistry that has been developed. That’s a short-sighted vision. Keeping Orgeron would be about far more than this current crop of players. It’s about the next generation of recruits and getting USC back on its feet in the wake of its scholarship restrictions.
It’s clear Orgeron is a different guy in a lot of ways than the coach who went 10-25 in three seasons at Ole Miss. I’ve been told by several coaches that he had management issues in Oxford, with one calling him “one of the worst micromanagers in college football history.” That doesn’t seem to be the case now.
Still, it’s risky business when promoting an interim; that’s why it happens so rarely. In recent history, the two examples are incredibly divergent: The late Bill Stewart was never widely supported at West Virginia, and he was eventually unseated by Dana Holgorsen in a very nasty transition. Clemson’s Dabo Swinney is the gold standard for such promotions, and his initial boost came at midseason, like Orgeron's.
For Haden, it will ultimately come down to what’s out there and how those candidates stack up compared to Orgeron. Sumlin, it seems, is not coming. Boise State’s Chris Petersen seems like a long shot, though I’d try if I were Haden. Would you rather hire someone like Fresno State’s Tim DeRuyter, who is from Long Beach, or stick with Orgeron?
One plus for whoever it winds up being: I’ve heard nothing but good things about redshirting freshman QB Max Browne.
Quick takes
• That’s now five straight wins for South Carolina against Clemson, the first time that has ever happened in the history of a rivalry that dates back to 1896.
I got a call from South Carolina’s football office last Sunday. Evidently Steve Spurrier didn’t take kindly to the fact that a couple of sources told me that Spurrier might be -- or should be -- eyeing retirement.
For one, the Ball Coach knew that wouldn’t be helpful on the recruiting trail, as opponents have been trying to use Spurrier’s retirement against South Carolina for years. But also, after hearing from those close to him, he really doesn’t seem to want to retire.
“Football is what he knows, what he does, who he is,” one person close to the program told me. “I know he said he didn’t want to be Bobby Bowden, but now I don’t know if he knows what else he wants to do. What’s he going to do? He doesn’t like golf that much.”
The Gamecocks have a lot of key players returning next season. With the possibility that the conference could be a little down, why couldn’t the Gamecocks win the SEC East in 2014?
• Think about it: If Mizzou gets a fourth-down stop or makes a short field goal in double-overtime against South Carolina, it’s likely the No. 1 team in the country heading into December. As it is, perhaps the Tigers still have an outside, outside shot of getting into the BCS title game. It would need even more help than Auburn, however.
I have a Coach of the Year vote. Choosing between Malzahn and Gary Pinkel will be really difficult.
• I was surprised to see Nebraska’s administration come out in support of Bo Pelini, especially as quickly as it did after a humiliating home loss to Iowa. But there are a couple of reasons why AD Shawn Eichorst backed the embattled coach. For one, it would have cost the school $7.5 million to buy out Pelini -- in addition to whatever it would then pay the incoming coach. Second, and perhaps more importantly, who was Eichorst going to hire?
It goes back to where Nebraska is right now in the pecking order. It’s a good job, but not the job it was 10 or 15 years ago. Last time out, it hired LSU’s defensive coordinator. It would surely like to have a sitting head coach for its next coach, but maybe that candidate isn’t an obvious one right now.
Surely, though, Eichorst and president Harvey Perlman have to encourage Pelini to, you know, not be so combative. If you’re engaged in verbal warfare with Tommie Frazier, you’re probably not doing something correctly as Nebraska’s head coach.
• If you believe the advanced metrics, Michigan coach Brady Hoke made the correct decision in going for the two-point conversion with 32 seconds remaining in the Wolverines’ 42-41 loss to Ohio State on Saturday. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Wolverines’ expected win probability (based on an analysis of similar situations in the past 10 seasons) heading into the two-point attempt was 45 percent. Their win probability would have been 38 percent heading into an extra-point attempt, because converting the two-point attempt and then holding Ohio State scoreless the final 32 seconds was more likely than making an extra point, holding OSU scoreless in regulation and then edging out the Buckeyes in overtime. So, especially when you consider the records of both teams and how the game was going, it's hard to find fault with Hoke's choice.
I saw a thought late Saturday from ESPN's Austin Ward: Why do we consider Florida State any differently than we do Ohio State? It's a fair question. After all, the Buckeyes currently rank 64th nationally in strength of schedule, while the Seminoles rank 68th.
The answer is “the eye test.” FSU has absolutely dominated its competition. The Seminoles have won by an average of 42.7 points a game this season, while Ohio State has won its 12 games by an average margin of 27.9 points. Kornegay of the Las Vegas Hilton wrote that a BCS title game line between FSU and Ohio State would have the Seminoles favored by about 11.5 points.
It might not seem fair to selectively apply the résumé test to Auburn versus Ohio State and not to Auburn versus Florida State, but the difference is that the Seminoles are viewed as the clearly superior team, whereas the Tigers and Buckeyes are comparable.
4. Kevin Sumlin’s new deal maintains Texas A&M's recruiting momentum
Texas A&M on Saturday seemingly headed off overtures from USC and the NFL when it announced a new six-year deal to keep coach Kevin Sumlin. But perhaps more than anything, it’s a move that will help lock up the Aggies' 2014 recruiting class, currently ranked fifth nationally by ESPN's RecruitingNation. Sumlin wanted to let the recruits know he would be back. Sumlin’s third season figures to include a lot of turnover, and transition into “his” players. So maintaining this particular class is vital for the 2014 season and beyond.
Based on my time around Sumlin and the program, I do believe he considered the prospect of an offer from USC. More than money -- he was going to get a salary bump no matter what -- I think it came down to where he wanted to raise his family. Sumlin has four kids, and the pace of life in Texas versus Los Angeles was a big piece of the puzzle.
Now, if the Houston Texans one day come calling, this six-year deal might be rendered moot. That could be the perfect confluence of an NFL job and staying in the same part of the country.
5. Ed Orgeron and (recent) history of hiring interims
USC couldn’t quite complete the fairy-tale ending to its season, losing 35-14 to UCLA on Saturday, but the new Sumlin deal could theoretically boost Coach O’s chances of having the interim tag lifted.
[+] Enlarge
Stephen Dunn/Getty ImagesWill Ed Orgeron be USC AD Pat Haden's pick as the Trojans' next full-time head coach?
I’ve heard some analysts say AD Pat Haden has to keep Orgeron, because it would upset the chemistry that has been developed. That’s a short-sighted vision. Keeping Orgeron would be about far more than this current crop of players. It’s about the next generation of recruits and getting USC back on its feet in the wake of its scholarship restrictions.
It’s clear Orgeron is a different guy in a lot of ways than the coach who went 10-25 in three seasons at Ole Miss. I’ve been told by several coaches that he had management issues in Oxford, with one calling him “one of the worst micromanagers in college football history.” That doesn’t seem to be the case now.
Still, it’s risky business when promoting an interim; that’s why it happens so rarely. In recent history, the two examples are incredibly divergent: The late Bill Stewart was never widely supported at West Virginia, and he was eventually unseated by Dana Holgorsen in a very nasty transition. Clemson’s Dabo Swinney is the gold standard for such promotions, and his initial boost came at midseason, like Orgeron's.
For Haden, it will ultimately come down to what’s out there and how those candidates stack up compared to Orgeron. Sumlin, it seems, is not coming. Boise State’s Chris Petersen seems like a long shot, though I’d try if I were Haden. Would you rather hire someone like Fresno State’s Tim DeRuyter, who is from Long Beach, or stick with Orgeron?
One plus for whoever it winds up being: I’ve heard nothing but good things about redshirting freshman QB Max Browne.
Quick takes
• That’s now five straight wins for South Carolina against Clemson, the first time that has ever happened in the history of a rivalry that dates back to 1896.
I got a call from South Carolina’s football office last Sunday. Evidently Steve Spurrier didn’t take kindly to the fact that a couple of sources told me that Spurrier might be -- or should be -- eyeing retirement.
For one, the Ball Coach knew that wouldn’t be helpful on the recruiting trail, as opponents have been trying to use Spurrier’s retirement against South Carolina for years. But also, after hearing from those close to him, he really doesn’t seem to want to retire.
“Football is what he knows, what he does, who he is,” one person close to the program told me. “I know he said he didn’t want to be Bobby Bowden, but now I don’t know if he knows what else he wants to do. What’s he going to do? He doesn’t like golf that much.”
The Gamecocks have a lot of key players returning next season. With the possibility that the conference could be a little down, why couldn’t the Gamecocks win the SEC East in 2014?
• Think about it: If Mizzou gets a fourth-down stop or makes a short field goal in double-overtime against South Carolina, it’s likely the No. 1 team in the country heading into December. As it is, perhaps the Tigers still have an outside, outside shot of getting into the BCS title game. It would need even more help than Auburn, however.
I have a Coach of the Year vote. Choosing between Malzahn and Gary Pinkel will be really difficult.
• I was surprised to see Nebraska’s administration come out in support of Bo Pelini, especially as quickly as it did after a humiliating home loss to Iowa. But there are a couple of reasons why AD Shawn Eichorst backed the embattled coach. For one, it would have cost the school $7.5 million to buy out Pelini -- in addition to whatever it would then pay the incoming coach. Second, and perhaps more importantly, who was Eichorst going to hire?
It goes back to where Nebraska is right now in the pecking order. It’s a good job, but not the job it was 10 or 15 years ago. Last time out, it hired LSU’s defensive coordinator. It would surely like to have a sitting head coach for its next coach, but maybe that candidate isn’t an obvious one right now.
Surely, though, Eichorst and president Harvey Perlman have to encourage Pelini to, you know, not be so combative. If you’re engaged in verbal warfare with Tommie Frazier, you’re probably not doing something correctly as Nebraska’s head coach.
• If you believe the advanced metrics, Michigan coach Brady Hoke made the correct decision in going for the two-point conversion with 32 seconds remaining in the Wolverines’ 42-41 loss to Ohio State on Saturday. According to ESPN Stats & Information, the Wolverines’ expected win probability (based on an analysis of similar situations in the past 10 seasons) heading into the two-point attempt was 45 percent. Their win probability would have been 38 percent heading into an extra-point attempt, because converting the two-point attempt and then holding Ohio State scoreless the final 32 seconds was more likely than making an extra point, holding OSU scoreless in regulation and then edging out the Buckeyes in overtime. So, especially when you consider the records of both teams and how the game was going, it's hard to find fault with Hoke's choice.
FreedS[ohh]lave
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Detractors of the tanking philosophy often use one very persuasive argument when warning against tanking for a season:
With the NBA lottery system in place, the odds are actually against a team with the worst record in the league winning the lottery -- 3-to-1 against, actually. Why go through a horrific season if chances are you still won't land the guy you really covet?
This year, however, that logic is being turned on its head. With so many talented players in college basketball, a tanking team might end up with the sixth or seventh pick and still walk away with a superstar.
In the past few weeks, we've gone over the four favorites for the No. 1 pick (Andrew Wiggins,Julius Randle, Jabari Parker and Dante Exum) as well as the rising stocks of Marcus Smart andJoel Embiid. Add in Arizona's Aaron Gordon and the 2014 draft looks to be, at the very least, seven players deep.
Which teams are increasing their odds of getting one of these picks? Let's take a look.
1. Milwaukee Bucks | Status: Trying | Record: 3-13 (past week: 1-3)
The Bucks ended an 11-game losing streak on Saturday by beating the Celtics 92-85. But their performance on offense has been so terrible (despite a fairly weak schedule) that they've nudged the Jazz out of the top spot on these rankings.
Injuries have been at the heart of the Bucks' woes this season, but, even with a healthy roster, they don't look like a team that can compete for the playoffs, not even in the East. Now's the time to go all-in on the lottery. It's a tough idea to sell to owner Herb Kohl, but a group of Bucks fans is pushing hard to make the case with a new website and billboard project -- SaveOurBucks.com. The former Senator ought to have a read.
(Last week: 2
2. Utah Jazz | Status: Tanking | Record: 3-15 (past week: 2-1)
Two wins this week against the Bulls and Suns have pushed the Jazz down a spot. Interestingly, it's been a 27-year-old veteran, Marvin Williams, who has helped fuel the Jazz's victories. He's posting the second-highest PER and the highest true shooting percentage of his career.
Of course, given the Jazz's long-term goals and Williams' attractive expiring contract, that just means Williams might have increased his trade value.
(Last week: 2
3. Cleveland Cavaliers | Status: Trying | Record: 5-12 (past week: 1-2)
The Cavs ended their five-game losing streak Saturday with a win over the injury-riddled Bulls. But the win won't stop the rampant rumors that owner Dan Gilbert is out to make some big changes to his club.
Dion Waiters, the Cavs' 2012 lottery pick, popped up in trade speculation last week and responded with three straight games of 20-plus points. Whether those performances are enough to get other teams' GMs to offer anything of value for Waiters is the question. It appears the Cavs still really want to be in the playoffs this season; if they throw in this year's draft pick (which would have to be in the top 12; otherwise, the pick would go to the Kings), they'll start seeing a lot of offers.
(Last week: 3
4. Philadelphia 76ers | Status: Tanking | Record: 6-12 (past week: 0-3)
The Sixers continue to devolve into the sort of horrible lottery team we expected them to be at the start of the season. They are 3-12 since their hot start and were blown out by two teams with losing records this past week. Their only win in their past nine games came against the No. 1 team on this list -- the Bucks.
The Sixers continue to get terrific contributions from Michael Carter-Williams, Evan Turner,Spencer Hawes and Thaddeus Young. It's the rest of the team that's a huge mess. With the exception of Tony Wroten, Philly isn't getting much of anything from its bench right now.
(Last week: 4
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5. Sacramento Kings | Status: Tanking | Record: 4-11 (past week: 0-2)
The Kings traded veteran Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (who was supposed to add toughness and defense to the squad) for Derrick Williams last week -- a move that should be good for their future. Williams has unrealized potential and was worth the gamble. He is still playing out of position in Sacramento, but should get a lot of chances to prove himself. Mbah a Moute was in Sacramento to help the team this season.
Although the team has played the Warriors and Clippers very tough since the deal, the long-term prognosis has the Kings as the second-worst team in the West with a decent shot at the No. 1 pick. With the deal, it seems clear that's the direction new Kings GM Pete D'Alesandro is now looking.
(Last week: 7
)
6. Orlando Magic | Status: Tank-building | Record: 6-10 (past week: 2-1)
The Magic haven't been horrible. In fact, they've played a number of good teams tough. Their offensive and defensive ratings put them in the middle of the pack, and their rebound rate is in the top 10. What's hurting them is turnovers -- 16.4 percent of their possessions end in a turnover. Only the Jazz and Rockets turn the ball over more.
Rookie Victor Oladipo is largely to blame. A whopping 19.6 percent of his possessions end in a turnover. But the Magic aren't worried too much. He is adjusting to a new position and has shown signs of getting things under control lately (just two turnovers versus the Spurs and only one against the Hawks this past week).
(Last week: 5
)
7. Boston Celtics | Status: Tank-building | Record: 7-12 (past week: 2-2)
Before a stumble in Milwaukee on Saturday, the Celtics were winners of three of their past four. Over their past five games, Jeff Green has averaged more than 20 points per game and Jared Sullinger has averaged 15 PPG and nine rebounds per game. With Rajon Rondo poised to return soon, GM Danny Ainge will have a difficult choice ahead. Because, with the Atlantic Division so horrible at the moment, it's not out of the question the Celtics could, with a healthy Rondo, win the division, grab a fourth seed in the East and see how it goes.
That would be a great move in the short term. But long-term? The Celtics need a star to build around. They could decide Rondo is that guy … or they could still end up trading Rondo, Gerald Wallace and maybe Green before the February trade deadline.
(Last week: 6
)
8. Toronto Raptors | Status: Trying | Record: 6-10 (past week: 0-3)
Yes, I know the 6-10 Raptors sit atop the Atlantic Division and have a shot at a No. 4 seed in the playoffs. But I suspect that, as the season goes on, the Nets will find a way to surpass the Raptors and leave the rest of this division fighting for lottery balls.
GM Masai Ujiri is as motivated as any GM in the league to grab Wiggins. Trading away a veteran or two likely would make the Raptors a contender for the No. 1 pick in the draft.
(Last week: NR
)
9. Charlotte Bobcats | Status: Trying | Record: 8-10 (past week: 1-3)
The Bobcats are making a run at the playoffs right now, but they're not in the same league as real playoff teams. Charlotte was blown out by the Pacers at home, then blew a big fourth-quarter lead over the Heat on Sunday. Its most impressive win this season was probably a road triumph over the 7-12 Celtics.
To make matters worse, three of the Bobcats' most recent lottery picks --Bismack Biyombo, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Cody Zeller -- are struggling to live up to expectations. A fourth, Kemba Walker, has regressed back to his rookie season PER. If none of them turns the corner (and, to be fair, all four have plenty of time, especially Kidd-Gilchrist and Zeller) and the Bobcats end up with a late lottery pick (or, even worse, end up with a pick 11th or worse, which they'd have to send to the Bulls), this rebuild could never materialize.
(Last week: 8
)
10. Chicago Bulls | Status: Trying? | Record: 7-8 (past week: 1-2)
The Bulls completed their first full week without Derrick Rose. Although their ownership, management and coach have said publicly that the team will try to tough it out, the results on the court suggest that, unlike last season, they might not have enough juice to make a playoff run.
This past week, the Bulls lost to the Jazz and the Cavs -- two of the worst teams in the league. Getting a healthy Jimmy Butler back will help a bit, but another few weeks like this and the writing might be on the wall for the Bulls -- it's lottery or bust this season.
(Last week: 10
)
The Kings traded veteran Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (who was supposed to add toughness and defense to the squad) for Derrick Williams last week -- a move that should be good for their future. Williams has unrealized potential and was worth the gamble. He is still playing out of position in Sacramento, but should get a lot of chances to prove himself. Mbah a Moute was in Sacramento to help the team this season.
Although the team has played the Warriors and Clippers very tough since the deal, the long-term prognosis has the Kings as the second-worst team in the West with a decent shot at the No. 1 pick. With the deal, it seems clear that's the direction new Kings GM Pete D'Alesandro is now looking.
(Last week: 7
6. Orlando Magic | Status: Tank-building | Record: 6-10 (past week: 2-1)
The Magic haven't been horrible. In fact, they've played a number of good teams tough. Their offensive and defensive ratings put them in the middle of the pack, and their rebound rate is in the top 10. What's hurting them is turnovers -- 16.4 percent of their possessions end in a turnover. Only the Jazz and Rockets turn the ball over more.
Rookie Victor Oladipo is largely to blame. A whopping 19.6 percent of his possessions end in a turnover. But the Magic aren't worried too much. He is adjusting to a new position and has shown signs of getting things under control lately (just two turnovers versus the Spurs and only one against the Hawks this past week).
(Last week: 5
7. Boston Celtics | Status: Tank-building | Record: 7-12 (past week: 2-2)
Before a stumble in Milwaukee on Saturday, the Celtics were winners of three of their past four. Over their past five games, Jeff Green has averaged more than 20 points per game and Jared Sullinger has averaged 15 PPG and nine rebounds per game. With Rajon Rondo poised to return soon, GM Danny Ainge will have a difficult choice ahead. Because, with the Atlantic Division so horrible at the moment, it's not out of the question the Celtics could, with a healthy Rondo, win the division, grab a fourth seed in the East and see how it goes.
That would be a great move in the short term. But long-term? The Celtics need a star to build around. They could decide Rondo is that guy … or they could still end up trading Rondo, Gerald Wallace and maybe Green before the February trade deadline.
(Last week: 6
8. Toronto Raptors | Status: Trying | Record: 6-10 (past week: 0-3)
Yes, I know the 6-10 Raptors sit atop the Atlantic Division and have a shot at a No. 4 seed in the playoffs. But I suspect that, as the season goes on, the Nets will find a way to surpass the Raptors and leave the rest of this division fighting for lottery balls.
GM Masai Ujiri is as motivated as any GM in the league to grab Wiggins. Trading away a veteran or two likely would make the Raptors a contender for the No. 1 pick in the draft.
(Last week: NR
9. Charlotte Bobcats | Status: Trying | Record: 8-10 (past week: 1-3)
The Bobcats are making a run at the playoffs right now, but they're not in the same league as real playoff teams. Charlotte was blown out by the Pacers at home, then blew a big fourth-quarter lead over the Heat on Sunday. Its most impressive win this season was probably a road triumph over the 7-12 Celtics.
To make matters worse, three of the Bobcats' most recent lottery picks --Bismack Biyombo, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Cody Zeller -- are struggling to live up to expectations. A fourth, Kemba Walker, has regressed back to his rookie season PER. If none of them turns the corner (and, to be fair, all four have plenty of time, especially Kidd-Gilchrist and Zeller) and the Bobcats end up with a late lottery pick (or, even worse, end up with a pick 11th or worse, which they'd have to send to the Bulls), this rebuild could never materialize.
(Last week: 8
10. Chicago Bulls | Status: Trying? | Record: 7-8 (past week: 1-2)
The Bulls completed their first full week without Derrick Rose. Although their ownership, management and coach have said publicly that the team will try to tough it out, the results on the court suggest that, unlike last season, they might not have enough juice to make a playoff run.
This past week, the Bulls lost to the Jazz and the Cavs -- two of the worst teams in the league. Getting a healthy Jimmy Butler back will help a bit, but another few weeks like this and the writing might be on the wall for the Bulls -- it's lottery or bust this season.
(Last week: 10