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Should SEC champ jump OSU? The discussion: Does the winner of Auburn-Missouri have a case to jump an undefeated Ohio State team and make the BCS title game?
Todd McShay: Auburn athletic director Jay Jacobs has an obvious agenda and bias in saying it would be a "disservice to the nation" if an SEC team isn't in the BCS National Championship, but I get his overall point. The thought of having a BCS title game where the SEC isn't represented is borderline depressing. I mean, seriously, how can we shut out the conference that has won seven consecutive national championships?
You don't want to see it, and we're fortunate that we aren't likely to be dealing with these issues next season when there's a playoff system in place (it's hard to imagine a "final four" that doesn't have at least one SEC team). But I think that an undefeated Ohio State should gain a BCS title bid ahead of the one-loss SEC champion -- in part because in this system, I think it's hard to pass over unbeaten teams from the power conferences, but also because of the specific teams involved in this year's BCS debate.
For starters, I agree that Auburn has played the more difficult schedule. (For the purposes of this discussion, I'm limiting it to Auburn versus Ohio State, because I don't think Missouri is going to be in the title discussion in the same way that Auburn will be if it wins.) Auburn has more quality wins and has faced a tougher road overall.
But Auburn's loss to LSU, when compared to Ohio State's clean slate, is a significant factor here. I've watched the tape of that game, and Auburn was manhandled. The Tigers were down to LSU 21-0 at the half and ended up losing 35-21. And while you could fault Ohio State for not winning games more convincingly, the same could be said for Auburn. Finding ways to win close games is part of what it takes to make it to the national title game.
The quality of these teams matters, too. If I'm going to be totally honest, I probably would have argued last season that a one-loss Alabama team deserved to be in the title game over an undefeated Ohio State, had the Buckeyes not already been eliminated because of NCAA sanctions. That's because the Crimson Tide, in my opinion, were clearly the superior team.
But Ohio State and Auburn this season are very close in terms of the eye test, and if anything, the Buckeyes have the edge (for what it's worth, Vegas largely views OSU as a slight favorite over Auburn on a neutral field). I think that Ohio State, because of the combination of QB Braxton Miller and RB Carlos Hyde playing the two most important positions in coach Urban Meyer's offensive system, is capable of beating any team in the country. The defense is a weak spot, but overall the Buckeyes are a much better team than last season's unit (it's not as though Auburn is perfect on defense, either).
In short, I don't think an undefeated Ohio State should be punished by the system and be passed over automatically by the SEC champion. These Buckeyes are capable of winning it all, and they've earned their title shot.
Mel Kiper: My answer to this one is yes, but only under certain circumstances. Let's go through the scenarios.
Auburn's case: Auburn fans who ask us to simply look at the wins and forget how they happened are just as guilty as Ohio State fans who would say the same. Auburn has one good win and one great win in the past three weeks, with home victories over Georgia and Alabama. But the Tigers also were aided by the miraculous -- and unbelievably fortunate -- bounce against Georgia, and missed field goals and an incredible return against Bama. Again, those are very good wins, as good or better than any Ohio State has this season, but how they happened matters. An Auburn fan demanding his team be taken more seriously than OSU because the Buckeyes haven't been dominant is being a bit hypocritical. Ohio State has a bad defense? Well, Auburn's is 76th nationally. Ohio State hasn't "dominated" enough? Well, where has Auburn blown teams off the field?
What Auburn has done is play a tougher slate, and now has the more impressive win. But to jump Ohio State, I believe the Tigers need to beat a very good team in convincing fashion, and they need a little help from OSU. That's tricky, because Mizzou has to be thinking the same.
Mizzou's case: There's a case to be made that had Mizzou held on and beaten South Carolina at home Oct. 26, they'd be challenging Florida State to be the No. 1 overall team right now. That said, the home loss still means I think Ohio State has a better claim to go to the BCS title game right now. The Tigers, however, have a legit case to jump Ohio State if the Buckeyes are only able to squeak by Michigan State, and Mizzou really takes it to Auburn and wins convincingly. They have some good wins, but because of where teams such as Ole Miss, Florida, Georgia and now even Texas A&M have finished the season, Mizzou's résumé looks merely good, not remarkable.
They have a chance to jump OSU, but they need a great win Saturday. And they need help. Which is where OSU comes in.
The math says the Buckeyes should be OK if they win, but I think they need to do more than squeak by Michigan State. If Auburn in particular has a dominating performance, and OSU barely gets by the Spartans, you could see a lot of voters flip, and the computers could follow.
So yes, I think the SEC teams could have a case; I just think they need Ohio State to help make it.
On the rise
Kiper: Kelcy Quarles, DT, South Carolina Gamecocks
Jadeveon Clowney draws the bulk of the attention, both from blockers and viewers, but it has been Quarles who has put up the huge season for the Gamecocks.
On Saturday against Clemson, he sacked Tajh Boyd 2.5 times, giving him 9.5 this year to go with 13.5 tackles for loss. The coaches at South Carolina consider the 6-foot-3, 298-pound Quarles, a junior, their Warren Sapp, a penetrating defensive tackle who blends quickness and power as well as a great awareness in the run game to give them a constant force.
Quarles has great hands to free himself inside, an ability to penetrate or push the pocket with leverage, and he locates really well against the run. I see him as no lower than a second-round pick right now, but he'll have the option to stick around another year.
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Checking in on top prospect stock
THE BIG 5
Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle and Marcus Smart finally fell back to earth last week after red-hot starts.
• Parker had his first subpar game for Duke on Friday against Arizona. He went 7-for-21 from the field, with five turnovers in a loss. While Parker has been the most consistent of the elite freshmen, scouts are watching closely to see how he handles more athletic defenders. The only time he's struggled this season has been when Wiggins, Aaron Gordon, Brandon Ashley and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson were guarding him. All four of those players are elite NBA prospects with length. If Parker has a weakness (and he doesn't have many), this might be it.
• Wiggins raised the most eyebrows after a series of three straight mediocre performances for Kansas at the Battle 4 Atlantis. To be fair, Wiggins was battling a bug all week, but that didn't totally explain his lackluster showing. Scouts are scratching their heads a bit at his sudden reticence on offense. He was 3-for-8 in a loss against Villanova on Friday, and 2-for-9 in a win against UTEP on Saturday. Those aren't exactly lights-out performances.
Then again, several scouts pointed out that at times he showed excellent defense (and almost won the game against Villanova with two big defensive plays at the end). The scouts said they don't expect Wiggins to be a dominant offensive presence every night; he has an all-around game that doesn't always require that, and Kansas has plenty of other options. But for those looking for reasons to doubt Wiggins, he gave his haters some ammunition. If Wiggins wants to be the No. 1 pick in a field as loaded as this, he's going to have to show some of Parker's alpha-dog tendencies.
• Randle's streak of seven straight double-doubles ended against Providence on Sunday. The Kentucky forward still had eight rebounds, so that's not a big drop. But he shot a combined 7-for-20 against Cleveland State and Providence -- unusually poor numbers for a player who makes a living around the basket.
• The narrative that Oklahoma State's Smart has fixed all of his shooting woes after dropping 39 points and shooting 5-for-10 from 3-point range Nov. 19 against Memphis has taken a hit. Since then, Smart has continued to score, but his 3-point shot found its mark only against Purdue. He was a combined 2-for-15 from 3 against South Florida, Butler and in a rematch against Memphis on Sunday, and had two costly turnovers late in the game. Smart has a lot of momentum right now, and has moved back into the discussion for the No. 1 pick, but scouts will be watching those shooting numbers (as well as his turnovers) closely all season.
• As for Dante Exum: He's playing high school ball in Australia, well below the radar of NBA scouts. And given the week the other guys had, he's probably thankful for that.
STOCK: HOT
Joel Embiid, C, Kansas Jayhawks
Top 100 Rank: 6
If Embiid's breakout game Nov. 19 against Iona was the eye-opener for NBA scouts, then it was his game against Villanova on Friday that legitimized the discussion of Embiid as a potential No. 1 pick. With Wiggins and the rest of the KU team struggling, it was Embiid (and freshman backup point guard Frank Mason) who kept Kansas in the game. Embiid was a force on both ends of the floor and showed off his unique size and athletic abilities. It's clear his basketball IQ isn't quite there yet, and he's going to have to work to stay out of foul trouble. But he has all of the building blocks of a successful NBA big man, and we are seeing it much earlier in the season than we expected.
Zach LaVine, G, UCLA Bruins
Top 100 rank: 12
This is an incredible freshman class. We currently have nine freshmen ranked in the top 14, and 11 in the first round. We have three more sitting on the first-round bubble. All of them draw praise from scouts, but outside the group at the top -- Wiggins, Randle, Parker, Embiid, Gordon -- no one is a hotter name right now than LaVine.
LaVine was a late bloomer in high school, and didn't shoot up the rankings until his senior year, when he grew a few extra inches. His progression has continued, and now he's dominating at UCLA. LaVine is an explosive, 6-foot-5 combo guard who is both an incredible athlete and a polished scorer. He's averaging 14 PPG, shooting 64 percent from the field, 57 percent from 3-point range, and he's sporting a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. And he's doing all of this coming off the bench for UCLA for 25 minutes per night.
NBA scouts love big, athletic point guards, and LaVine appears to have all of the qualities a scout could look for. He has weaknesses, though: He needs to add strength, and he still can focus too much on scoring instead of distributing the ball (especially when he's playing at the 2, which is where he's seeing most of his minutes this season). Still, given his age, those are minor complaints.
UCLA sophomores Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson are also drawing early raves as potential first-rounders, but it has been LaVine who scouts claim should be in the lottery discussion right now. When a few scouts call him "Russell Westbrook with a jump shot," you have to start paying attention.
Jerami Grant, F, Syracuse Orangemen
Top 100 rank: 16
Scouts have been high on Grant all summer, and after a slowish start to the season, he had his breakout game in Maui, scoring 19 points, grabbing eight rebounds and making one of the most athletic plays of the year in an amazing putback dunk. Grant followed with another 19-point performance against Baylor in the championship game, and proved to be explosive enough to score over the top of Baylor's long, athletic front line. Grant is showing the ability to hit the mid-range jumper and to get to the basket. If he can show a 3-point shot, too, he will get serious looks from teams in the top 10. He's one of the best athletes in the draft, and has the motor that could make him special someday.
And speaking of Grant, scouts haven't forgotten about his brother, Jerian Grant, at Notre Dame. While Jerami might be the sexier prospect because of his size (6-8, 210 pounds) and age (19), Jerian Grant was brought up by multiple scouts the past few days. He's averaging nearly 20 PPG, is shooting 48 percent from 3-point range and has a 4-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio this season. Jerian Grant (6-5, 203) looks well on his way toward hearing his name called in the first round as well, especially if there are teams looking for a big and athletic point guard.
Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky Wildcats
Top 100 rank: 17
Scouts were down early on Cauley-Stein after a so-so start to the season offensively (he didn't crack double digits in scoring in his first four games). However, he's come on strong lately for Kentucky. In his past four games, he's averaged 13.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and just over five blocks per game. He's still pretty far from being a dominant player offensively, but if he can maintain those sorts of numbers all season, he's going to be back in the conversation as a lottery pick.
Ron Baker, G, Wichita State Shockers
Top 100 rank: 37
Baker might be this year's biggest draft sleeper. His play as a freshman during Wichita State's Sweet 16 run last season turned heads (he handled Louisville's press about as well as a freshman could), but it's been his performance early this season for the Shockers that has many NBA scouts believing he could be a first-round pick in 2014.
Baker is a terrific shooter, but he's shown this season he's a more versatile scorer than scouting reports have suggested. He's also playing some backup point this season, which is a good thing, as most scouts believe he'll have to be a point guard in the NBA given his relative lack of size (6-3) and length. Thus far, he has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.7-to-1. He'll never be a lockdown defender because of his lack of elite athletic ability, but Baker's skills and high basketball IQ could easily land him in the first round. Think of the Indiana Pacers' George Hill for a comparison.
STOCK: NOT
Wayne Selden, SG, Kansas Jayhawks
Top 100 rank: 18
Selden came into the season with an incredible amount of buzz. He was dominating the summer circuit, and was drawing raves from inside Kansas practices as the best player on the team. Given his scoring instincts and made-for-the-NBA body, expectations were that it would be Selden, not Wiggins, who would shoulder the scoring load for the Jayhawks this season. So far that hasn't panned out. Selden is averaging just seven shots a game, is scoring less than 10 PPG and is shooting just 33 percent from 3-point range. Scouts love the physical tools he brings to the table, but his lack of elite size at the position and so-so output have them re-evaluating where he might go in the 2014 draft. If things don't turn around quickly, Selden might be back at Kansas for his sophomore season.
Isaiah Austin, F/C, Baylor Bears
Top 100 rank: 41
Speaking of coming back, it's a good thing Austin decided to skip the 2013 draft and return to Baylor for his sophomore season. A shoulder injury tipped the scales for Austin this summer, but it might have been a blessing in disguise. Had he declared for the draft, not only would he have likely slipped into the second round, but he would've been years away from contributing at the NBA level. Austin is back this year and looks, unfortunately, much like the player we saw last year. He's oozing with size, skill and athletic ability, but it's smothered by the fact that Austin is too weak to play in the post and not polished enough to make a living on the perimeter. What he's left doing is dunking over smaller opponents and blocking shots. He's averaging just 5.5 RPG and his scoring numbers are down nearly three points per game this season. Every scout I spoke with in Maui believes he's going to need at the very least one more year in school.
Top 100 rank: 37
Baker might be this year's biggest draft sleeper. His play as a freshman during Wichita State's Sweet 16 run last season turned heads (he handled Louisville's press about as well as a freshman could), but it's been his performance early this season for the Shockers that has many NBA scouts believing he could be a first-round pick in 2014.
Baker is a terrific shooter, but he's shown this season he's a more versatile scorer than scouting reports have suggested. He's also playing some backup point this season, which is a good thing, as most scouts believe he'll have to be a point guard in the NBA given his relative lack of size (6-3) and length. Thus far, he has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.7-to-1. He'll never be a lockdown defender because of his lack of elite athletic ability, but Baker's skills and high basketball IQ could easily land him in the first round. Think of the Indiana Pacers' George Hill for a comparison.
STOCK: NOT
Wayne Selden, SG, Kansas Jayhawks
Top 100 rank: 18
Selden came into the season with an incredible amount of buzz. He was dominating the summer circuit, and was drawing raves from inside Kansas practices as the best player on the team. Given his scoring instincts and made-for-the-NBA body, expectations were that it would be Selden, not Wiggins, who would shoulder the scoring load for the Jayhawks this season. So far that hasn't panned out. Selden is averaging just seven shots a game, is scoring less than 10 PPG and is shooting just 33 percent from 3-point range. Scouts love the physical tools he brings to the table, but his lack of elite size at the position and so-so output have them re-evaluating where he might go in the 2014 draft. If things don't turn around quickly, Selden might be back at Kansas for his sophomore season.
Isaiah Austin, F/C, Baylor Bears
Top 100 rank: 41
Speaking of coming back, it's a good thing Austin decided to skip the 2013 draft and return to Baylor for his sophomore season. A shoulder injury tipped the scales for Austin this summer, but it might have been a blessing in disguise. Had he declared for the draft, not only would he have likely slipped into the second round, but he would've been years away from contributing at the NBA level. Austin is back this year and looks, unfortunately, much like the player we saw last year. He's oozing with size, skill and athletic ability, but it's smothered by the fact that Austin is too weak to play in the post and not polished enough to make a living on the perimeter. What he's left doing is dunking over smaller opponents and blocking shots. He's averaging just 5.5 RPG and his scoring numbers are down nearly three points per game this season. Every scout I spoke with in Maui believes he's going to need at the very least one more year in school.
Measuring the title contenders
A thrilling Iron Bowl victory by Auburn on Saturday shook up the BCS standings and left only two undefeated AQ teams at the top of the polls. The Florida State Seminoles and Ohio State Buckeyes appear to control their own destiny as they prepare for their respective conference championship games. But three SEC teams -- Auburn, Alabama and Missouri -- also are ranked in the top five in the BCS standings and are in position to seize a title-game bid if the Seminoles and/or the Buckeyes are upset.
Those five teams are all ranked highly in our latest FEI ratings, although not in the same pecking order as the BCS standings. FEI is an opponent-adjusted drive-based system designed not to select a national champion but rather to measure overall team efficiency, the success of a team maximizing its own possessions and limiting the possession success of its opponents.
Team records are a function of performance and the strength of the opposition faced. Ohio State ranks ahead of Auburn in our FEI ratings, for instance, but, if the two teams swapped schedules, they likely also would swap records. According to our data, the Buckeyes would be 11-1 against Auburn's schedule and the Tigers would be 12-0 against Ohio State's schedule. (It should be noted that, in this alternate scenario, Ohio State would still be ranked just ahead of Auburn according to FEI).
The possession efficiency data is also useful in projecting what might lie ahead for the remaining BCS title contenders. We compared each of the top five teams in the BCS against every team in the 2007 to 2012 seasons across five key measures -- opponent-adjusted offense, opponent-adjusted defense, special-teams efficiency, field-position advantage and overall FEI rating.
Which teams from the recent past are most similar statistically to the BCS front-runners, and where might each end up when the dust settles this weekend?
Florida State Seminoles (12-0)
Most similar profile: 2009 Alabama (14-0)
Nick Saban's first championship team in Tuscaloosa ascended to the No. 1 spot in the polls only after an SEC championship game victory over Florida at the end of the regular season. Florida State waited its turn, as well, advancing ahead only after top teams with higher preseason ratings dropped off.
Like this year's Seminoles, the Crimson Tide played their best football in their biggest games that year, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Against four conference opponents ranked at the time of the game, Alabama allowed an average of less than 10 points per game -- Florida State is on the same pace heading into its ACC title game matchup with No. 20 Duke. Both 2009 Alabama and 2013 Florida State surrendered only 0.9 points per drive and allowed fewer than 30 percent of available yards (measured from starting field position to end zone).
The main difference between the two teams is the strength of the opposition faced. Including postseason games, Alabama played the sixth-toughest schedule according to FEI, and Florida State has faced only the 98th-toughest schedule to date. But despite being relatively untested, FSU has posted seven victories ranked among the top 50 in our opponent-adjusted single game efficiency measure. No other team has more than four such wins. There are multiple ways to impress as a legitimate national championship contender -- edge out a number of good teams, or destroy nearly everyone in your path.
Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0)
Most similar profile: 2010 TCU (13-0)
In most cases, the Buckeyes would love to be compared favorably with an undefeated Rose Bowl champion. But the 2010 TCU Horned Frogs were left out of the BCS national championship mix and Ohio State has no interest in following that particular path.
In terms of raw stats, this year's Buckeyes have more in common with 2010 TCU's offense than its other units. Ohio State ranks No. 1 nationally in avoiding three-and-outs, earning at least one first down on 84.1 percent of its non-garbage drives. In 2010, TCU ranked fourth nationally in that statistic (79.8 percent). Ohio State has scored 3.8 points per drive; TCU averaged 3.4.
When the 2010 season wrapped up, TCU had played only one team ranked in the final Associated Press Top 25, and that was its Rose Bowl opponent, Wisconsin. Ohio State might have a similar lack of ranked opponents at the end of this season. The Buckeyes should still be in good shape to claim a BCS championship bid with a win in the Big Ten title game, but they should consider themselves lucky that there aren't two undefeated AQ teams ahead of them.
Auburn Tigers (11-1)
Most similar profile: 2011 Oregon (12-2)
Like the Buckeyes, Auburn compares most similarly to a Rose Bowl champion that had hoped for even more back in 2011. The Ducks started the year as a preseason national championship contender and ended the year ranked No. 4, but two disappointing trip-ups in between spoiled an otherwise outstanding season.
Auburn has lived on the edge a bit more than Oregon did in 2011, but the overall résumé has several similarities. Both teams lost by two touchdowns to an LSU team ranked in the top 10 at the time of the game. Oregon lost 38-35 in mid-November to USC, but Auburn's miraculous tipped touchdown reception against Georgia in mid-November flipped a would-be 38-37 loss into a 43-38 victory. (There is no similar outcome to Auburn's miraculous "Kick Six" victory over Alabama, and there probably never will be.)
Our FEI ratings actually favor Missouri in the SEC title game, so a final record of 12-2 like that of the 2011 Ducks is certainly in play. One common thread for Auburn in its closest calls this year has been losing the field-position battle. Auburn came up on the wrong side of field position against Mississippi State, Georgia and Alabama. Of course, all three of those games ultimately were won by the Tigers in dramatic fashion.
Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1)
Most similar profile: 2009 Florida (13-1)
There is a very remote possibility that Alabama can find itself back in the national championship game, but it certainly appears as if the Crimson Tide will be on the outside looking in. They have the potential to finish as one of the best teams ever to not play in a BCS title game, a distinction also held by the 2009 Florida Gators.
The '09 Gators ranked among the top 12 in all five of our measures in this similarity analysis, and Alabama does, as well. Both teams scored an average of 2.0 points per drive more than their opponents. Both teams produced scoring margin value from offense, defense and special teams. Alabama held opponents to seven or fewer points seven times this season, and the 2009 Gators did so six times.
If Alabama does settle for a non-championship BCS bowl, it will be interesting to see how the Crimson Tide handle that disappointment. Would this year's team dominate an inferior opponent the way the 2009 Gators did, posting a 51-24 victory over previously undefeated Cincinnati? Or will the 2013 Tide play more like the 2008 Alabama team that laid an egg against a motivated Utah team in the Sugar Bowl?
Missouri Tigers (11-1)
Most similar profile: 2010 Ohio State Buckeyes (12-1)
Missouri ranks fifth in the BCS standings this week, and the Buckeyes ranked sixth heading into the final weekend of the 2010 regular season. The key difference between the two situations is that Missouri has one more opportunity to post a victory and make a statement, whereas Ohio State had already wrapped up its regular season and could only watch the final weekend from the sideline.
The offenses were similarly productive and efficient. We measure value drives as possessions that move into scoring range by crossing the opponent's 30-yard line. Both 2013 Missouri and 2010 Ohio State earned value drives on at least 51 percent of their drives, and both scored an average of 5.4 points per value drive.
Missouri's challenge in the SEC title game will be slowing down Nick Marshall and the potent Auburn offense, but it passed a big test this past weekend in limiting Johnny Manziel's Texas A&M attack that ranks No. 1 nationally in opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency. Auburn keeps inventing more exciting ways to win, but, if Missouri plays as expected according to our data, Mizzou will win the SEC championship and hope one other domino falls ahead of it.
http://s0.docspal.com/files/processed/60/4438860-xxxlcrfo/Pick Center.pdf
Can you view this? You may have to zoom in. A lot of it is graphics and not text so it was pasting weird.
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The Auburn Tigers' 2013 Iron Bowl victory over Alabama will be forever remembered for Chris Davis' game-winning 100-yard return of the Crimson Tide's last-second field goal attempt.
But the biggest reason the Tigers were even in position to win the game was the success their offense had against the Bama defense, racking up 393 total yards, including 296 on the ground.
What is it that makes Gus Malzahn's offense at Auburn so difficult to stop? And what chances do the Missouri Tigers have of slowing them down in Saturday's SEC championship game?
Let's take a look.
What makes Auburn's offense so effective?
1. Power, speed ... but not the spread
For starters, let's get this out of the way: Malzahn's offense is not the spread! Far from it, in fact. Malzahn describes his attack as a two-back downhill power rushing attack. Just because the Tigers operate at a lightning-quick pace does not make them a spread team. Most of the game you will see fullback Jay Prosch and tailback Tre Mason in the backfield with quarterback Nick Marshall just before the ball is snapped. There will be many shifts and motions to try to confuse the defense, but the final formation will be some version of two-back.
The speed of operation is a critical element to the success of this offense (a trend that has spread across college football). There are not a ton of plays in the offense, but they are run quickly and force the defense to make quick decisions.
Malzahn separates himself from many other coaches in college football with his killer instinct. As fans, we have been conditioned to think that aggressive offenses are always passing offenses. That absolutely is not true as it pertains to Auburn's offense. This is one of the most aggressive offenses in college football, led by a playcaller who is looking to gut defenses with every opportunity, and does it almost exclusively on the ground.
2. Balance in the run game
Nick Marshall
Nick Marshall's versatility and effectiveness in the running game helps fuel Auburn's offense.
Typically when we discuss balance on offense we're talking about a run/pass split, but in Auburn's case, this offense has found complete balance in the running game alone. Marshall's ability to run the QB power inside the tackles, combined with his speed on the zone-keep play to the outside is very difficult to stop. Add in Mason's ability to run inside and Corey Grant's speed on the jet-sweep play, and Auburn has three dynamic playmakers in the run game that balance each other perfectly.
When you compare this offense to Malzahn's national championship offense with Cam Newton in 2010, you start to see the pieces fall into place. Mason is filling the Michael Dyer role, Grant the Onterio McCalebb speed sweep element, and Marshall is in Newton's role as the athletic quarterback, albeit with a different skill set. Newton had a power element to his run game, as well as a vertical passing game off play-action. Marshall relies more on his elusiveness and pure speed to exploit any defense that tries to defend the perimeter run game with defensive ends or linebackers.
3. Malzahn's in-game adjustments
Malzahn is one of the best in college football at in-game adjustments. He can quickly and clearly see how defenses are approaching his offense, and he has become adept at thinking ahead of defensive coordinators in anticipation of how they will play his scheme and having the answers that will unlock big plays.
Case in point: Malzahn was one step ahead of Alabama's Nick Saban and Kirby Smart for most of the Iron Bowl. Here's how:
• Saban and Smart attempted to slow the Auburn run game with perimeter pressure from their secondary. The coaches knew they would lose the numbers game in the front seven because of Malzahn's scheme and Marshall's speed. So Smart and Saban attempted to bring safeties down to the end of the line of scrimmage to help on the perimeter run game. It worked several times until Malzahn adjusted his blocking scheme by assigning the fullback Prosch and tight end Brandon Fulse to be frontside blockers on the edge. Malzahn knew that if he could account for this approach from Alabama, there would be running room behind the blitzes. Rather than running away from this overload blitz, Malzahn made the adjustment and ran right into it; doing so took Alabama by surprise.
• Another approach from the Alabama defense was to fire cornerbacks off the edge to knife into the backfield and try to disrupt the running game. This is a classic defensive ploy, and one that Malzahn was ready to exploit. He simply incorporated a wide receiver jet sweep motion into his normal game plan. The sweep action accomplished two main objectives: First, it forced the linebackers and safeties to respect the speed on the perimeter, which opened up rushing lanes on the inside. But the motion also put the wide receiver in position to block the corner fire, should it come. Auburn could continue to run its base plays without having to worry about these corner blitzes.
What can Mizzou do to slow Auburn down?
1. The Tigers could attempt to play assignment football
This approach assigns specific defenders to specific offensive players. You see this approach mainly when defenses play "option" teams the increase the amount of reads defenders would have to make on every play. Defensive coordinators often feel it is easier on the players to take the read out of the equation and tell them who they have (sort of like man-to-man defense in basketball). For instance, the DE would have responsibility for the dive, the LB would take the QB, and the safety or corner would have force on the pitch man.
Michael Sam
Will Michael Sam and Missouri's defense play assignment football against Auburn?
Auburn's offense warrants some of this approach from defenses it plays. Alabama did it with varying levels of success last week. The problem Alabama faced was not in the assignment of who to take, but in containing Marshall in a one-on-one situation. In most cases it was Bama LB Trey DePriest who could not run with Marshall.
Who will Missouri assign to defend Marshall? I don't think one defender can contain him, but the problem with dedicating two "contain" players to Marshall is that you will be susceptible in other areas. How do you think Auburn WR Sammie Coates got so wide open on the game-tying TD pass late in the fourth quarter versus Alabama? Both the corner and safety for Alabama had to react to the speed and elusiveness of Marshall, who appeared to be tucking and running for the first down, leaving Coates open behind them. Marshall threw it to Coates for the TD.
2. Mizzou's athletic defense ends could help in containment of Marshall
Keep your eye on Shane Ray, Markus Golden and Michael Sam and how they play the edge. They are more athletic than Alabama's DEs and better suited to chase speed. Are they able to react to Marshall's reads and get him on the ground, or are they losing leverage on the perimeter? They had success last week against a pretty elusive guy by the name of Johnny Manziel, holding him to the lowest yardage total of his career at 216 yards. We know those three guys are great pass rushers, but Auburn's offense will provide a completely different test. It will be a big key in the game.
3. Keep Auburn's runners out of the second level ... and watch the fullback
The biggest mismatch in this game lies in the speed differential between Marshall, Mason and Grant and Missouri's linebacker corps. If the Auburn run game is able to get to the second level of this defense, it could be a long day for Missouri.
One last key for the Tigers (and for fans to watch as well): follow Prosch. Where the fullback goes, the ball typically goes as well. He and LSU's J.C. Copeland are the two best blocking FBs in college football. Prosch typically lines up in the backfield, but Malzahn doesn't hesitate to move him anywhere in the formation.
But the biggest reason the Tigers were even in position to win the game was the success their offense had against the Bama defense, racking up 393 total yards, including 296 on the ground.
What is it that makes Gus Malzahn's offense at Auburn so difficult to stop? And what chances do the Missouri Tigers have of slowing them down in Saturday's SEC championship game?
Let's take a look.
What makes Auburn's offense so effective?
1. Power, speed ... but not the spread
For starters, let's get this out of the way: Malzahn's offense is not the spread! Far from it, in fact. Malzahn describes his attack as a two-back downhill power rushing attack. Just because the Tigers operate at a lightning-quick pace does not make them a spread team. Most of the game you will see fullback Jay Prosch and tailback Tre Mason in the backfield with quarterback Nick Marshall just before the ball is snapped. There will be many shifts and motions to try to confuse the defense, but the final formation will be some version of two-back.
The speed of operation is a critical element to the success of this offense (a trend that has spread across college football). There are not a ton of plays in the offense, but they are run quickly and force the defense to make quick decisions.
Malzahn separates himself from many other coaches in college football with his killer instinct. As fans, we have been conditioned to think that aggressive offenses are always passing offenses. That absolutely is not true as it pertains to Auburn's offense. This is one of the most aggressive offenses in college football, led by a playcaller who is looking to gut defenses with every opportunity, and does it almost exclusively on the ground.
2. Balance in the run game
Nick Marshall
Nick Marshall's versatility and effectiveness in the running game helps fuel Auburn's offense.
Typically when we discuss balance on offense we're talking about a run/pass split, but in Auburn's case, this offense has found complete balance in the running game alone. Marshall's ability to run the QB power inside the tackles, combined with his speed on the zone-keep play to the outside is very difficult to stop. Add in Mason's ability to run inside and Corey Grant's speed on the jet-sweep play, and Auburn has three dynamic playmakers in the run game that balance each other perfectly.
When you compare this offense to Malzahn's national championship offense with Cam Newton in 2010, you start to see the pieces fall into place. Mason is filling the Michael Dyer role, Grant the Onterio McCalebb speed sweep element, and Marshall is in Newton's role as the athletic quarterback, albeit with a different skill set. Newton had a power element to his run game, as well as a vertical passing game off play-action. Marshall relies more on his elusiveness and pure speed to exploit any defense that tries to defend the perimeter run game with defensive ends or linebackers.
3. Malzahn's in-game adjustments
Malzahn is one of the best in college football at in-game adjustments. He can quickly and clearly see how defenses are approaching his offense, and he has become adept at thinking ahead of defensive coordinators in anticipation of how they will play his scheme and having the answers that will unlock big plays.
Case in point: Malzahn was one step ahead of Alabama's Nick Saban and Kirby Smart for most of the Iron Bowl. Here's how:
• Saban and Smart attempted to slow the Auburn run game with perimeter pressure from their secondary. The coaches knew they would lose the numbers game in the front seven because of Malzahn's scheme and Marshall's speed. So Smart and Saban attempted to bring safeties down to the end of the line of scrimmage to help on the perimeter run game. It worked several times until Malzahn adjusted his blocking scheme by assigning the fullback Prosch and tight end Brandon Fulse to be frontside blockers on the edge. Malzahn knew that if he could account for this approach from Alabama, there would be running room behind the blitzes. Rather than running away from this overload blitz, Malzahn made the adjustment and ran right into it; doing so took Alabama by surprise.
• Another approach from the Alabama defense was to fire cornerbacks off the edge to knife into the backfield and try to disrupt the running game. This is a classic defensive ploy, and one that Malzahn was ready to exploit. He simply incorporated a wide receiver jet sweep motion into his normal game plan. The sweep action accomplished two main objectives: First, it forced the linebackers and safeties to respect the speed on the perimeter, which opened up rushing lanes on the inside. But the motion also put the wide receiver in position to block the corner fire, should it come. Auburn could continue to run its base plays without having to worry about these corner blitzes.
What can Mizzou do to slow Auburn down?
1. The Tigers could attempt to play assignment football
This approach assigns specific defenders to specific offensive players. You see this approach mainly when defenses play "option" teams the increase the amount of reads defenders would have to make on every play. Defensive coordinators often feel it is easier on the players to take the read out of the equation and tell them who they have (sort of like man-to-man defense in basketball). For instance, the DE would have responsibility for the dive, the LB would take the QB, and the safety or corner would have force on the pitch man.
Michael Sam
Will Michael Sam and Missouri's defense play assignment football against Auburn?
Auburn's offense warrants some of this approach from defenses it plays. Alabama did it with varying levels of success last week. The problem Alabama faced was not in the assignment of who to take, but in containing Marshall in a one-on-one situation. In most cases it was Bama LB Trey DePriest who could not run with Marshall.
Who will Missouri assign to defend Marshall? I don't think one defender can contain him, but the problem with dedicating two "contain" players to Marshall is that you will be susceptible in other areas. How do you think Auburn WR Sammie Coates got so wide open on the game-tying TD pass late in the fourth quarter versus Alabama? Both the corner and safety for Alabama had to react to the speed and elusiveness of Marshall, who appeared to be tucking and running for the first down, leaving Coates open behind them. Marshall threw it to Coates for the TD.
2. Mizzou's athletic defense ends could help in containment of Marshall
Keep your eye on Shane Ray, Markus Golden and Michael Sam and how they play the edge. They are more athletic than Alabama's DEs and better suited to chase speed. Are they able to react to Marshall's reads and get him on the ground, or are they losing leverage on the perimeter? They had success last week against a pretty elusive guy by the name of Johnny Manziel, holding him to the lowest yardage total of his career at 216 yards. We know those three guys are great pass rushers, but Auburn's offense will provide a completely different test. It will be a big key in the game.
3. Keep Auburn's runners out of the second level ... and watch the fullback
The biggest mismatch in this game lies in the speed differential between Marshall, Mason and Grant and Missouri's linebacker corps. If the Auburn run game is able to get to the second level of this defense, it could be a long day for Missouri.
One last key for the Tigers (and for fans to watch as well): follow Prosch. Where the fullback goes, the ball typically goes as well. He and LSU's J.C. Copeland are the two best blocking FBs in college football. Prosch typically lines up in the backfield, but Malzahn doesn't hesitate to move him anywhere in the formation.
FreedS[ohh]lave
Banned
What if they won the draft lottery?
For the past month, our primary focus in Tank Rank has been on the race, on the court, for the No. 1 pick.
But what would each team do if it actually won the 2014 NBA draft lottery? It's ridiculously early to ask that question -- most teams have five to six players they are seriously considering with the No. 1 pick. But if they had to decide today ... ?
Here's our weekly look at where the 10 worst teams in the NBA stand in their quest for the No. 1 pick in the draft.
1. Milwaukee Bucks | Status: Trying | Record: 4-16 (past week: 1-3)
The Bucks have plenty of athletes in the frontcourt, but they really lack a go-to scorer who can demand a double-team in the post. While John Henson is playing well for them, he's not an ideal partner on the front line next to Larry Sanders. Kentucky's Julius Randle seems like the most obvious fit for the Bucks. Pair him with Sanders on one side and rookie Giannis Antetokounmpo on the other, and the Bucks will be well on their way to a full, exciting rebuild.
(Last week: 1
2. Utah Jazz | Status: Tanking | Record: 4-18 (past week: 1-3)
The Jazz's biggest hole is at small forward. The two guys who get the most time there, Marvin Williams and Richard Jefferson, are both free agents this summer. But even if that wasn't the biggest need, it's hard to think of any other team in the league that would be a better fit for Duke's Jabari Parker. Parker's versatile, aggressive game would be a godsend to the Jazz. And with Parker the best Mormon basketball player since Danny Ainge, there's a good chance the Jazz could keep him long term.
(Last week: 2
3. Philadelphia 76ers | Status: Tanking | Record: 7-14 (past week: 1-2)
The Sixers are obviously happy with Michael Carter-Williams at the point. And when Nerlens Noel gets healthy, he has a chance to be a defensive anchor in the middle. So a wing or a low-post scorer would make the most sense. The early intel is that the 76ers are enamored with Kansas' Andrew Wiggins. If Wiggins had a decent point guard to set him up -- point guard play has been a weakness for the Jayhawks this season -- he's got a chance to have a Paul George-type leap from college to the NBA.
(Last week: 4
4. Toronto Raptors | Status: Tanking | Record: 7-12 (past week: 1-2)
The Raptors threw their hats into the tanking ring on Sunday when they shipped Rudy Gay to the Kings. You could see this one coming for a while. The Raptors desperately wanted to rid themselves of Gay's contract. If there is a team that Andrew Wiggins is a lock for, it's the Raptors. The NBA's only Canadian team is hungry to land one of its own and Wiggins would be the ultimate prize. He isn't a fit the way the current roster is constructed, but general manager Masai Ujiri would make quick work of that.
(Last week: 8
5. Orlando Magic | Status: Tanking | Record: 6-14 (past week: 0-4)
The Magic were bummed when Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart decided to return for his sophomore season. If they get the No. 1 pick, would they take Smart?
I'm inclined to say yes, though sources in Orlando say they are bullish that Victor Oladipo could be a point guard in the NBA, and his success could free them to take a player with more upside, such as Andrew Wiggins.
(Last week: 6
6. Cleveland Cavaliers | Status: Trying | Record: 7-13 (past week: 2-1)
If GM Chris Grant has a job going in to next summer -- and given owner Dan Gilbert's desire to make the playoffs this season, Grant may not -- then you can expect the unexpected. Grant has made several unorthodox picks, and from what I gather, Cleveland might do it again.
The Cavs are one of the teams beating the Joel Embiid drum. The Cameroon big man has drawn comparisons to Hakeem Olajuwon, and the Cavs believe that ultimately, Andrew Bynum won't be their long-term answer in the middle.
(Last week: 3
7. Sacramento Kings | Status: Rebuilding | Record: 5-13 (past week: 1-2)
The Kings made a major move Sunday, trading away a number of spare parts for Rudy Gay. It was their second big trade in as many weeks and signaled that they're attempting to rebuild now. Gay is clearly an upgrade, but is he good enough to put them in the hunt for a playoff spot in the West?
I don't think so. I see Sacramento as a legitimate landing spot for Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart. His toughness and ability to lead could immediately turn the fortunes in Sacramento. Dante Exum is another real possibility.
(Last week: 5
8. Charlotte Bobcats | Status: Trying | Record: 9-11 (past week: 1-1)
The Bobcats have made a mess of the draft in recent years. Could they bumble this one, too? I don't think so. I'm hearing Michael Jordan is an Andrew Wiggins guy, though there's a soft spot in the organization for Australia's Dante Exum.
(Last week: 9
9. Boston Celtics | Status: Tank-building | Record: 10-12 (past week: 3-0)
Ainge has been this draft class' biggest skeptic. And if the Celtics keep winning like this, they won't be on this list much longer. But if somehow they manage to end up with the No. 1 pick, I hear Ainge would have a hard time passing on Jabari Parker here.
(Last week: 7
10. Chicago Bulls | Status: Trying? | Record: 8-10 (past week: 1-2)
With Luol Deng heading into free agency this summer and Carlos Boozer a possible amnesty candidate, the Bulls' biggest needs will be at the 3 and the 4. Parker would be a worthy replacement for Deng, and Randle can do many of the things Boozer can. Could be a toss-up.
(Last week: 10
KEY
Tanking: The team's front office has deliberately weakened the team in an attempt to lose as many games as possible.
Tank-building: The space that lies somewhere between the ideas of tanking and rebuilding.
Rebuilding: The team's front office didn't go out of its way to sign or trade for quality players this summer, but it was less an attempt to lose games than it was an opportunity to give young players already on the roster a chance to prove themselves.
Trying: The team's front office went out of its way over the summer to strengthen the roster in an attempt to make the playoffs. The team just isn't very good.
