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NBA Finals preview: Heat vs. Spurs
Throughout the playoffs, these series previews have emphasized the importance of matchups and head-to-head results. When it comes to the NBA Finals, the regular season no longer holds such predictive power. Miami faced the San Antonio Spurs twice during the regular season, and both times key starters were missing from the lineups. After Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich famously sent Tim Duncan, Danny Green, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker home before San Antonio's visit to Miami, the Heat sat out LeBron James and Dwyane Wade for the return game.
In fact, the two teams have met at full strength only twice since Miami signed James and Chris Bosh, as Wade and Ginobili missed the only matchup during the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season. Back in 2010-11, the home team won both games in blowout fashion. History still offers some insight into how the Spurs and Heat will approach this series, but not its eventual outcome.
When Miami has the ball
It took the Heat seven games against the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference finals to look like themselves. Indiana's physical, disciplined defense took away the shots at the rim and beyond the 3-point line that are Miami's strengths. The San Antonio defense, which ranked third in the NBA during the regular season and leads the league in defensive rating so far in the playoffs, is similar in many regards to the Pacers' defense.
Like Indiana, the Spurs also excel at defending the rim and the 3-point line, if not as single-mindedly. Per Hoopdata.com, San Antonio ranked third in opponent shooting at the rim (the Pacers were first), though opponents attempted an above-average number of shots close to the basket. The Spurs were in the top five in preventing shots from beyond the 3-point line and above average in opponent 3-point percentage.
Still, the Heat will find this an easier series because San Antonio is neither as physical nor as athletic as Indiana. Miami will not have to adjust its game plan so dramatically to succeed.
Naturally, everything starts with James. The Spurs will counter with Kawhi Leonard, a rangy forward in the Paul George mold. As with George, James' biggest advantage will be his strength, especially if he spends time in the post. Because Leonard missed the only game James played against San Antonio, the Spurs used backup big man Boris Diaw as their primary defender on James. Diaw probably will get the assignment when Leonard is on the bench, especially when Miami goes small.
Because James' production is relatively constant, Bosh and Wade are the more important figures for the Heat offense. Wade's energy in Game 7 against Indiana set the template for his role in this series. Assuming Miami's floor balance is good, he can continue to create problems by crashing the offensive glass. Operating against bigger defenders, Bosh should find plentiful opportunities from midrange. He was great in both matchups against San Antonio, averaging 20.5 points and 10.5 rebounds on 58.6 percent shooting.
The other difference for the Heat in Game 7 was Ray Allen finding the mark from 3-point range. He should have more space to fire in this series, having scored 34 points in the two games against the Spurs. Erik Spoelstra may also be able to return Shane Battier to the lineup now, provided he matches up with Diaw or Matt Bonner and not the bigger Tiago Splitter.
When San Antonio has the ball
After watching the Pacers pound Miami inside for seven games, the Spurs should be able to take advantage of their own superior size with a pair of 6-foot-11 frontcourt starters. In the second half of the meeting in San Antonio, Tim Duncan in the post was the Spurs' first option on offense. The Heat countered with Udonis Haslem fronting and a second defender coming over to prevent the lob. While Duncan rarely scored himself, the help defense and his willingness to move the ball opened up opportunities on the perimeter.
The Spurs also came up with offensive rebounds on better than 30 percent of the misses in the second matchup. San Antonio won't dominate the glass as thoroughly as Indiana did, but still should be able to extend possessions nonetheless.
Besides the post game, the Spurs can also generate open shots from their pick-and-roll game. Miami stuck with its basic trapping game plan against screens, which led to 17 turnovers from the San Antonio regulars in the second matchup, but also uncontested attempts from beyond the 3-point line. The Spurs are by far the best passing team the Heat have faced in the postseason, and that ball movement figures to break down Miami's rotation at times.
All told, San Antonio attempted 54 3-pointers in the two games, and the Heat were fortunate the Spurs made just 31.5 percent of them. Hitting from the corners, long a San Antonio specialty (the team was third in the NBA in corner 3s this season, per NBA.com/Stats) also will be particularly important. Twenty-two of those 54 3-point attempts came from the corners. If Miami starts closing out too hard, that could set up drives for the Spurs wings. Leonard got a pair of dunks that way in the fourth quarter of the second meeting.
Somehow, we've gotten this far without addressing San Antonio's playoff MVP, point guard Tony Parker. Parker wasn't a huge factor in the one game he played against the Heat this season, scoring 12 points on 4-of-14 shooting and handing out eight assists. In Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole, Miami has a pair of quick defenders who can put pressure on Parker. The team's overall pick-and-roll defense will be more important to keeping Parker out of the paint. If he plays as he did in the Western Conference finals, however, there's no stopping Parker.
One wild card: Will the Heat put James on Parker at the end of games? James' size and strength would enable him to contest shots even when beat off the dribble, but the number of screens the Spurs run for Parker makes this a taxing strategy that could sap his energy for the offensive end.
Prediction
This time a year ago, the Oklahoma City Thunder entered the NBA Finals as favorites in large part because of how impressive the Thunder looked in the Western Conference finals (knocking off San Antonio) as Miami was forced to seven games in the East. In hindsight, those series were not indicative of what happened with an entirely different matchup in the Finals. I'm wary of the same thing happening with the Heat a second consecutive year.
At the same time, the Spurs certainly fit the formula for beating Miami with their big front line, a defense that takes away the 3-pointer and ace defenders Leonard and Green on the wing.
Ultimately, this series likely turns on two factors. The first is the health of Bosh and Wade, who looked revitalized in Game 7 against Indiana. The second is Splitter's ability to create more problems for the Heat defense with his size than Miami's smaller shooters create at the other end. While San Antonio is a better team than the Pacers, I don't think they match up quite as well, and I think that will allow the Heat to defend their title.
Miami in 7
Starting 5: USA U16's new look
1. Malik Newman is undergoing major changes
Two weeks ago, Malik Newman was lauded for his ability to score and do it from all over the floor all the time. We all knew Newman, the nation's No. 4 sophomore, could get buckets. With his high school team and travel squad, he's been a volume shooter and big number scorer. At USA Basketball last weekend, Newman showcased a completely different side of his game.
Newman should not be pigeonholed as a scorer. That tag will often carry with it the dreaded "ball hog" connotation. Newman's no ball hog. He is leading the Nike EYBL in scoring (24.7 points per game) but shooting 44 percent from the field. All of that is immaterial because this serious candidate for top dog in 2015 is a complete player. Being around the best talent USA Basketball has ever assembled in a U16 camp has allowed Newman to play a different role instead of hired gun.
"He's never played with players (that good) before," Malik's father, Horatio, said. "Now he's playing with good players and he's not selfish at all."
Beginning last Thursday, Newman was the top guard at the camp and top overall performer. Long term, 2016 forward Harry Giles is the best prospect playing in a USA uniform but Newman is a productive whiz, and he's doing it as a shooting guard and part-time point man.
What no one saw coming was the loquaciousness of the kid who calls himself "Mississippi." Basically, since USA head coach Don Showalter asked him to talk and communicate, no one can shut Newman up. From cutting up with his teammates to calling out defensive rotations, Newman's gone from chatter less to chatterbox. His attitude and energy infected Team USA and came from a source no one expected. At last fall's USA workout, Newman was among the least vocal players in attendance. Those days are over.
The rising junior isn't interested in recruiting at this point. His father is the point man for his recruitment and it's truly in the infancy stages. The entire SEC, including Kentucky but excluding Florida (so far) is into him. Georgetown, UCLA, North Carolina, Arizona, Memphis and very likely a nation of college hoops blue bloods will offer him a scholarship.
2. USA Basketball has different tone
There were no coaches yelling, "Do Him." And if your goal was to get off and showcase what you can do at the expense of the four other guys on the court, your chances of making this squad weren't very good.
This year's USA Basketball tryout was a pure hoop setting.
Thirty underclassmen born in 1997 or after gathered in Colorado Springs, Colo., last week to try out for the U16 team that will participate in next week's FIBA America's championship. Pairing the team down to 12 was impossible. The deepest position was the wing spot, and three bigs, all of whom can one day be lottery picks, were on display.
This was my first time with USA Basketball as a member of the selection committee, and it was a learning experience. You're first reminded that Team USA has never lost a U16 game and the feeling is no one wants to buck the trend. The 12 players who made this team each brought different skill sets but had one thing in common: Nobody survived all the pair-downs unless they could defend the basketball. Showalter was adamant in preparing his team on that end of the court.
Making this team was an exercise in mental toughness, focus, utilizing your talents within the confines of a team and understanding your role and what's required of you. Showalter's staff coached, corrected and constructed a team using the culture of the Olympic team that Jerry Colangelo and Mike Krzyzewski built.
Watching players compete not just every game but each possession made me realize the purity of the experience and why this game is played. I also was reminded of how most kids want to be coached, not coddled. Correct them, provide structure and rules and they don't revolt, they respond and thrive while embracing the setting and goal.
This team is in good shape.
They'll be very successful this summer. However, it's the first step in their journey as the 2014 U17 World Championship looms next summer, and that's the big prize.
We know our Olympic team is healthy. People who value USA Basketball and appreciate the experience and follow the program will be happy to know that our younger squads are just as healthy as our headlining Dream Team.
3. What do assistants do in June?
July is widely regarded as the month where coaches, especially the assistants, earn their money. Once the evaluation periods tips, these guys criss-cross the country. They often have to hold the hands of their head coaches and do everything from make their daily schedule to pick them up at the airport and chauffeur them from gym to gym. Trust me, it's not as glamorous as it sounds.
This month, it's the players themselves who are busy. High school recruits are engrossed in team camps, elite camps, position camps, camps for guys who aren't good enough to be at the other camps. Get the picture? As much as July is a travel beast, June's no picnic for the players. From USA Basketball to the Nike position camps and tons in between, the kids are busy.
While the players play, the college coaches have plenty on their plates to stay more than busy. "We're organizing our calls for June 15 (when the NCAA says programs can contact sophomores), preparing for the return of our players for summer school and organizing and coordinating our summer workout schedule," Texas assistant Russ Springmann said.
"We stay in touch on the phone with everybody we're involved with," Kansas assistant Norm Roberts said. "We'll try and set up unofficial visits if possible and contact new recruits that might just be entering the radar. We've got to help with camps and clinics for coaches. You have to work with your incoming recruits and get them acclimated to summer school and workouts."
Over at Cincinnati, assistant Darren Savino preps for the July grind. "Recruiting is an everyday thing. You must be in communication with your top recruits and their families, coaches and mentors almost daily.
"You stay in touch via phone calls, texts, emails, or mail. Besides communication, we're always looking for new recruits and updating our lists. Then, the last part would be organizing July plans which can be very time-consuming."
4. The Fives:
Point Guards
1. Tyus Jones (best point guard in the country)
2. Emmanuel Mudiay
3. Joel Berry
4. Josh Perkins
5. Romelo Trimble
Summary: No change here at all. Heading into NBA camp, everybody on this list is solid.
Guards
1. Rashad Vaughn (Pangos Camp was the perfect setting for a guy like him)
2. JaQuan Lyle
3. Dion Wiley
4. Theo Pinson
5. Brandone Francis
Summary: You can flip a coin between Vaughn and Lyle but with last week's showing at Pangos, we split the difference and the two swapped places.
Forwards
1. Justin Jackson (See those guys coming? That's the rest of a hungry pack.)
2. Kevon Looney
3. Stanley Johnson
4. Justise Winslow
5. Chris McCullough
Summary: McCullough reportedly played well at Pangos. We've always said he could shoot up the list but consistency has been a bugaboo so we'll be patient. Instead, we vaulted Stanley Johnson up a few slots.
Posts
1. Jahlil Okafor (Can he hold off a feisty group below him?)
2. Trey Lyles
3. Cliff Alexander
4. Karl Towns Jr.
5. Myles Turner
Summary: No changes here. Okafor is set to try out for USA U19 team next week. He and Winslow are the lone high school players on the invite list; Tyus Jones has a sick family member and wants to stay in the country, otherwise he'd have been invited.
Up Next: USA Basketball's Five Best Prospects from U16 Tryouts
1. Harry Giles (2016)
2. Malik Newman (2015)
3. Ivan Rabb (2015)
4. Seventh Woods (2016)
5. Josh Jackson (2016)
Summary:Giles and Newman took turns leading the way at tryouts. Newman was the hottest out of the gates but Giles' steady approach wore on throughout camp. If there was a sheriff, a guy that was the best performer from the camp, one could go with Newman. However, the best long-term prospect in the building was Giles.
5. The battle for No. 1 in the next three classes
Sooner than later, we're going to release our new ESPN 100, 60 and 25. The staff will weigh in on the positions and voila -- we'll have our latest set of rankings sometime around the middle of the month. The burning question on everyone's mind: Who's No. 1 on each list? Here are my votes.
2016: Harry Giles, F
When this process plays out, remember who warned you about the total package that this kid is. He's a special talent. At 6-foot-9, he easily transitions from the paint to the perimeter, has the IQ of an all-american collegian and the requisite humility to be great. I see no other candidate at the moment.
2015: Malik Newman, G
Power forward Ivan Rabb sits atop our current rankings and he's a heckuva choice. Rabb's done nothing but solidify his case for the top spot. However, the emergence of Newman is too significant to ignore. Newman's got the scoring game of Monta Ellis and the ability to handle the ball, play some point and be a 20-point guy in college. There isn't anything he can't do offensively. He separated himself last weekend with his tenacious defense and improved attention to communication.
2014: Jahlil Okafor, C
The fact of the matter is Okafor's been banged up all spring long and probably didn't give himself enough down time to fully heal his injury. Regardless, I'd keep him at the No. 1 spot for the time being because of his offensive ability and reliability as a player capable of being the focal point of an offense. Tyus Jones would be my second choice and I could see him reclaiming the spot he once owned. Trey Lyles and Cliff Alexander are dark horses. Alexander is the most physically inspiring prospect of the bunch and should he decide to bring the noise every time, he could make a run at the spot. Until then, we'll stick with the known: Okafor and Jones.
Is Grant Hill a Hall of Famer?
Ladies and gentlemen, start your Hall of Fame debates, because Grant Hill announced Sunday that he was retiring from the NBA after 19 seasons.
Because it involves so many angles -- peak value vs. career production, college contributions vs. the pros, etc. -- Hill's case is going to make for one of the more interesting Hall of Fame discussions in recent memory. To help us sort it all out, we need to turn once again to our Hall Monitor, an inventory of 14 questions designed to assess whether a player deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. (Be sure to also see what ESPN The Magazine says about Hill's credentials here.)
Vitals
Position: Small forward
Weighted career EWA: 116.2 (typical Hall of Famer -- 129)
Weighted career Win Shares Above Replacement: 63.1 (typical Hall of Famer -- 78)
Weighted career VORP: 34.3 (typical Hall of Famer -- 38)
Questions
1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in basketball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in basketball?
No, not really. Although a newspaper search from the late 1990s reveals plenty of speculation that Hill would someday supplant Michael Jordan as the game's best player, and Alvin Gentry (Hill's coach at the time with the Detroit Pistons) referred to him as the "best player in the league" in 2000, that was a minority opinion. Hill never finished better than third in MVP voting, nor did he rank better than third in either Estimated Wins Added, Win Shares Above Replacement, or Value Over Replacement Player. Most likely, Jordan passed the baton directly to Shaquille O'Neal instead, with a possible stopover at Karl Malone's place.
2. Was he the best player on his team?
Yes. At age 31, Joe Dumars had slowed down considerably by the time Hill joined the Pistons in 1994, and Hill asserted himself as their best player from his rookie season all the way through his departure from Detroit in 2000. And although injuries marred most of his tenure with the Orlando Magic, he did manage to lead their 2004-05 squad in PER as well.
3. Was he the best player in basketball at his position?
Yes, if briefly. By 1996-97, Hill had surpassed Scottie Pippen as the league's best small forward, a mantle he wouldn't relinquish until Vince Carter made a run at that title during the 1999-2000 campaign. But no matter how you ranked them going into 2000-01, the first of Hill's infamous ankle injuries brought a certain end to his reign that season.
4. Did he have an impact on a number of NBA Finals or conference finals?
No. Hill's Pistons never escaped the first round of the playoffs, and his only contribution to a deep playoff run upon leaving Detroit was as a supporting player, ranking fifth in Win Shares (with a below-average 14.2 PER) on the Suns team that lost the 2010 Western Conference finals to the Lakers.
5. Was he good enough that he could play regularly after passing his prime?
Yes. Hill gamely underwent ankle surgery after ankle surgery throughout his time in Orlando, and nobody would have blamed him if he retired after one particularly scary procedure in 2003, when an infection briefly left him near death. But instead of quitting, Hill fought his way back and became one of the league's better wing role players in a career second-act that included five straight seasons of at least 2,000 minutes from 2007 to 2011.
6. Will he ever be the best eligible basketball player in history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
Probably not. For starters, Jason Kidd (who also retired this week) will be the best player to come out of the 1994-95 rookie class. And it won't get any easier if you look at the next wave of candidates, which includes surefire Hall of Famers Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, Ray Allen and Steve Nash (in addition to dark horse candidates such as Ben Wallace, Tracy McGrady and Chauncey Billups). A lot of names will have to be cleared off the ballot before Hill can be considered the best eligible option.
7. Are most players who have comparable statistics in the Hall of Fame?
Oddly, yes. Players as versatile as Hill (career averages of 16.7 PPG/6.0 RPG/4.1 APG) are pretty rare, so the list of players with the most similar per-game stats to him includes names such as Pippen and James Worthy. And lest you think he did it in a smaller sample, surprisingly enough, Hill actually played 100 more career games than Worthy did.
8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?
Not quite. Although Hill's all-around averages place him among some Hall of Fame-caliber company, he still has just a 35.5 percent chance of being enshrined, according to Basketball-Reference's Hall of Fame Probability metric. Why the disconnect? Hill's simultaneous collection of benchmarks feels impressive in combination, but none are especially Hall-worthy on their own, and a lack of championship rings hurts as well. Hill also falls just short of the HOF's average standards for induction in terms of weighted career EWA, WSAR, and VORP (see above), which attempt to balance peak performance versus longevity.
9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his basic statistics?
Because of his lost half-decade in the early 2000s, Hill's stats almost require the same adjustment that World War II-era baseball players need in their Hall of Fame cases. (Luckily, though, the Basketball Hall of Fame doesn't put anywhere near as much stock in "magic numbers" when it comes to raw statistics.) Even in terms of Hill's rate stats, though, he is hurt by losing three to four prime seasons to injury, which causes his prolonged decline phase as a role player to be overrepresented in his overall career averages.
10. Will he be the best eligible player at his position who is not in the Hall of Fame?
There's a good chance, if not simply due to the dearth of quality small forwards to enter the league during his era. Hill's primary competition here is the likes of Glenn Robinson, Michael Finley and Shareef Abdur-Rahim, plus possible holdovers such as Mark Aguirre (and long shots like Bruce Bowen). The only name that should give him trouble in this category is McGrady, although his best years came as a shooting guard, not a small forward.
11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
According to John Hollinger's handy reference guide, a 25.0 PER season befits a "weak MVP candidate," and Hill was at or near that level twice (1996-97 and 1999-2000). He was also arguably a top-5 player in 1998-99 and an outside candidate in 1995-96 and 1997-98 as well, all years in which he garnered MVP votes. The closest he ever came to winning the award was a third-place finish in the 1996-97 voting.
12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star Games did he play in? Did most of the players who played in this many All-Star Games go into the Hall of Fame?
Hill was an All-Star seven times, although his 2001 selection was even noted at the time as a sham outcome of fan voting -- Hill played just four (four!) games during that "All-Star" campaign. Nonetheless, 87 percent of eligible players with seven career All-Star Game nods made the Hall of Fame; even if you want to dock Hill that 2001 nod, 69 percent of those with six All-Star Game selections are Hall of Famers.
13. If this player was the best on his team, would it be possible that the team could win an NBA title?
I think so. Certainly Hill's Pistons never went deep into the postseason, topping out with 54 wins and a first-round loss in 1996-97. However, the supporting players on those Hill-era Detroit teams were Lindsey Hunter, Bison Dele, a young Jerry Stackhouse and aging versions of Dumars and Otis Thorpe. With a better surrounding cast (like the one that was shaping up in Orlando in 2000-01), it's no stretch of the imagination to think a Hill-led team could have contended for a title when he was at the peak of his powers.
14. What impact did the player have on basketball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way? Was his college and/or international career especially noteworthy?
Hill was one of the greatest college players of all time (two-time All-American at Duke, three national title-game appearances, two championships) and got the assist on arguably the most famous shot in NCAA tournament history, which will undoubtedly work in his favor when his number comes up. Hill also won Olympic gold for Dream Team II in 1996, the most underrated version of Team USA ever assembled. Finally, Hill was part of an innovative stylistic trend, joining Pippen as the best of the wave of "point forwards" to emerge in the 1990s. As such, Hill could be viewed as a sort of proto-LeBron James, giving him a special rung on basketball's evolutionary ladder.
The verdict:
It's close, but I think Hill will get in. As we've seen with the case of Ralph Sampson, college accomplishments can weigh heavily on the minds of voters, and Hill had quite a few of those. He also had a very high peak, topping out as nearly the best player in basketball during the late 1990s, and he'll get bonus points for the perseverance he showed in overcoming five ankle surgeries to make a successful comeback. Hill's overall NBA résumé is probably just shy of Hall of Fame standards, but his NCAA career ought to be enough to push him over the top.
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10 things learned from USA U16 tryouts
COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. -- Last weekend, 30 of the nations top young basketball talents from the 2015 and 2016 classes gathered in Colorado for the USA Basketball U16 national team tryouts. Following the training camp, a 12-player roster was chosen to compete for Team USA in the FIBA Americas U16 Championship June 11-15 in Uruguay.
The 12 players named to the U.S. squad were: 2015 power forward Thomas Bryant, 2016 shooting guard Terrance Ferguson, 2015 center Daniel Giddens, 2016 power forward Harry Giles, 2016 small forward Josh Jackson, 2016 shooting guard V.J. King, 2015 combo guard Malik Newman, 2015 power forward Ivan Rabb, 2016 point guard Devearl Ramsey, 2015 center Diamond Stone, 2016 small forward Jayson Tatum and 2016 point guard Seventh Woods.
Here were the top 10 things I learned from the USA Basketball U16 tryouts, including Newmans star-making performance and why I think Giles is the best prospect in all of high school basketball.
1. Newman brought everyone along for the ride
Going in, it was a known fact that Malik Newman was the best scorer on the team. The question was how he would balance his own ability to get buckets versus the four other elite talents on the floor around him. What happened over the next few days was awesome.
Newman was the teams best perimeter threat, best driver, top finisher and, through the first half of the camp, the undisputed top gun. Everything we knew he could do, he did. But then something else kicked in. The usually reserved Newman unleashed his personality on this team and the other players loved it. Newman did as much cutting up with the guys as he did slicing through the lane. He became vocal and committed on defense and set the tone on both ends. His fire, intensity and personality infiltrated the rest of the roster. He became not just the top scorer, but the heartbeat of the team. As you look at the 2015 class, its possible hes the best talent and top player among a talented contingent vying for the top spot.
The significance of Newmans performance at the U16 tryouts cant be understated. Plenty of scoring guards fancied themselves as point guards in high school. Monta Ellis, Tyreke Evans, Jerryd Bayless and Louis Williams were among the talents never able to find a balance between the two positions. Newman, though in his infancy stages as a lead guard, planted and watered the seed that someday he might be that guy.
2. Giles is exactly who I thought he was
My exposure to Harry Giles has been consistent since October. Ive seen him win a state title, dominate the Carolina Challenge and put on a show in AAU ball with Hall of Fame coaches looking on. Ive seen him in every situation possible and watched his every move on and off the court. Therefore, I can say with conviction that I believe hes the best prospect in all of high school basketball.
At the U16 camp, he was the lone big who could swing over and play small forward yet hold his own at center if he had to. Hes an excellent mid-range shooter, was the teams best post passer and already has counter moves inside. His ceiling is limitless and differs from almost every other player in the country. There isnt a basketball situation that cant be tailored to his talents.
Finally, the reason I speak with this type of conviction about Giles is because of his makeup. The attention rolls off his back. He reminds me of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist in how hes single-minded and locked in once the ball goes up. I believe hell make a college choice well in advance of his senior year because he doesnt strike me as a kid who will want to experience a drawn-out process. He is one of a handful of players in the country who could literally pick up the phone and commit to any school he wishes. If he did that, youd see others immediately want to play with him, too.
3. Jackson is already undervalued
When the best players in the 2016 class are discussed -- or viewed on mixtapes -- Josh Jackson seems less appreciated. But the fact of the matter is that there arent five better players in the class than him. The 6-foot-6 small forward is a prototype for the position. College coaches will love learning that his favorite thing to do is defend. In that regard, hes like former Florida star Corey Brewer. However, hell be better than Brewer because hes so much more advanced offensively, and that includes shooting the deep ball. Jackson flies to the ball, communicates like a college player and is reliable. It sounds as if he is Michigan States top target in the 2016 class and beyond. The only thing Id ask him if I were recruiting him is whether hed like to graduate early and come play college ball sooner.
4. Rabb has a bright future
Midway through the camp, the coaches implored Ivan Rabb to get on the glass. The power forward responded, and from that moment on he began to dominate. To me, Rabb and Newman are the top two players in the 2015 class, but theyre different. Rabb is fairly complete for his age. He has established ways to score -- and lots of them -- and the athleticism to be a factor above the rim. Hes intent on being a defensive guy and his shot-blocking has improved. Hes not ready to be a face-up guy yet, but thats the next step for his development.
5. The value of efficiency at the point
Devearl Ramsey figured out very early in camp how he could make Team USA. A speedy guard, Ramsey committed himself to defending and sharing the basketball. Early on, not all the guys even knew his name, but by the end of camp he was one of the players they were comfortable with at the point. Ramsey is not a threat as a shooter, but he runs the team, steps on the gas when he can and moves the ball. Basically, hes the type of guy whos easy to play with. From a coaching standpoint, hes trustworthy and values the ball. Theres something to be said for staying in your lane.
The most athletically talented point guard on the team is Seventh Woods. Hes only 14 years old and brings Derrick Rose/Russell Westbrook athleticism to his position. Hes a work in progress, but hes the U16 teams most efficient point guard in transition. Where his development needs to occur is with his feel for the position. Believe it or not, being the main point guard is still a little out of his comfort zone. Having Ramsey and Woods push each other will benefit both long term.
6. Thomas Bryant, aka Beast
During the spring, Ive had a personal emphasis on motor -- the guys who play with a purpose and play hard. Since April, Ive yet to see anyone with the motor Thomas Bryant owns. Hes not the top big man on the U16 team, but hes on the squad because his energy infected the roster. Beast set his mind on making the team and used his length and passion to do it. Bryant competed at a high level, chased rebounds and never gave up. His communication skills were also off the charts.
At one point, he began pumping himself up. Good rebound, Tom, hed say. Good defense, Tom. After a few days, everyone got used to him talking to himself. Better yet, they expected it and Bryants energy carried over to the other players. The telling part is that Thomas actually struggled to finish plays yet kept challenging himself. He simply never let up.
7. Every team needs a shooting specialist
The way the game is played today, shooting isnt a luxury -- its a necessity. USA Basketball has often found that out the hard way. Team USA has shot poorly in the Olympics and the Nike Hoop Summit games. Enter Terrance Ferguson. The 2016 shooter didnt set the world on fire and wasnt clicking with his jumper until two-thirds of the way through the camp. At that point, he started to emerge as a guy who could play the role of Michael Redd or Conner Frankamp from last years U17 world championship team. The best thing about Ferguson is that he has already played the role of shooting specialist as the freshman who stood in the corner and drained 3s off pitch passes from 2014 star Emmanuel Mudiay at Prime Prep (Texas) this past season. Ferguson is about to find himself in a similar role in Uruguay.
8. Lonzo Ball and others have another chance
Thirty players tried out for 12 spots on the U16 national team. Sixteen survived a first wave of cuts before the roster was ultimately cut to 12. Every spot was contested -- and will be again. All of the players will return next fall for another mini-camp, and next summer each will compete for a spot on the U17 team. USA Basketball has a familial culture. Two years ago, Justise Winslow and Joel Berry were cut, only to return the following year and emerge as starters for the world championship team. Derryck Thornton, a talented 2016 point guard, could turn into the Berry of the bunch next time around.
Some players, like 2016 standouts Lonzo Ball, Tyus Battle and Kobi Simmons, were playing in their first USA camp and the learning curve can be steep. Ball in particular looked out of sorts and wasnt comfortable. You walk away thinking hes a talented 6-4 point who has more than to his game than he showed. Hell be back in the fall, and the results could be different. Simmons and Battle were two players who came out strong the first night only to smack into the wall the next two days. On their return trip to Colorado Springs in the fall, theyll be more familiar with the process. That goes for all the players who didnt make the team: Most of the roster casualties were first-time participants in the camp.
9. Wings went to war for spots
One of the fascinating things to watch during the tryouts was the competition between the wings. Several players who didnt make the team are awesome talents and will return to push the pack. Jackson and Newman were the lead dogs the entire camp, while Jayson Tatum and V.J. King eventually stepped up their games and made the team as well.
The other candidates who didnt make the squad each brought something different. Freshman Malik Monk can heat up in a hurry, 2016 guard Mustapha Heron brought boundless energy, and 2015 guard Eric Davis personality and bucket-making ability were present. Elsewhere, 2016 Amir Coffey is still growing into his ultra-long body and 2015 Derrick Jones is a heck of an athlete. And if Battle had shot the ball better, he could have used his defense to make the team. Finally, 2016 wing Josh Langford has the brute strength and slashing to impact games.
10. Coaching matters
What happened in the Team USA training camp, in my opinion, will have a significant impact on more than just those 30 players. I witnessed great talents crave being pushed by Don Showalter, USAs coach and a master of building team unity with an emphasis on character and defense. His influence on these kids will run deep.
As these 30 players left Colorado Springs, its like putting trophy fish back into the pond. It has been ingrained in these guys the value of playing defense so much so that they all raised their defensive level of play -- many even surprising themselves. Showalter and his staff drilled into them communication. He made players expand their comfort zones.
The level of coaching these players received should create a lasting awareness of not only who they are as players but how they play the game. Believe me, they craved being pushed -- so much so that when they go back to playing ball with their high school and travel teams, you can bet theyre going to affect their teammates. These guys hopefully wont want to go back into the individual get mine mentality. Theyve been coached and they liked it more than they might have thought they would.
Weve seen the effect of USA Basketball on recruiting, too. Rising seniors Tyus Jones, Jahlil Okafor and Winslow have said theyre going to play in college together. Those bonds were formed in Colorado Springs two Junes ago. There will be guys who compete internationally for Team USA, make similar friendships and follow their lead. I bet well know more about the relationships once this team comes back from Uruguay, and possible package deals are likely to emerge from this club.
Top 10 all-time finals players
Last week in this space, we ranked every conference finals performance since 1986 (the first year for which Basketball-Reference.com has complete box scores), and LeBron James came out on top. That is as of Game 5 of this year's series, in which he averaged a cool 30.5 PPG, 7.5 RPG, and 5.0 APG on a 62.8 True Shooting Percentage.
But that was just the conference finals, a stepping stone to the destination upon which every basketball player truly fixes his gaze: the NBA Finals. And, as you might have guessed, when we reran the same formula for the Finals, LeBron's career performance was not enough to make the top ten. However, two other players from the 2013 Finals do rank quite highly in terms of career Finals performance.
Before I get to the ranking, here's a refresher on the methodology. For each player, I computed Alternate Win Score (AWS), a linear-weights formula that multiple studies have found to be the best of its kind in terms of predicting future team performance. I also made adjustments for the quality of the opponent, location of the game and team defensive performance that isn't captured by the box score, and I weighted everything by championship leverage index to account for the clutchness of the game.
What follows are the results of that study -- the 10 best NBA Finals performers of the past 28 seasons, according to Alternate Win Score per game (minimum 10 NBA Finals games played). Read on to find out which two current Finals participants are in the top 10, and where they rank.
10. Hakeem Olajuwon
Adjusted AWS/game: 10.5 | 27.5 PPG | 53.4 TS% | 10.6 RPG | 3.4 APG | 5.1 St+Bk/G
As we found out in the first article of this series, Hakeem owned the conference finals more than almost any player ever has. In the Finals, though, his ranking drops a bit because we're including 1986, when the Celtics cut Olajuwon's production significantly from what it had been in the West final. Still, Olajuwon later carried the Rockets to two championships, putting up dominant numbers against Patrick Ewing and Shaquille O'Neal in the process.
Signature Performance: 30 pts/10 reb/4 blk versus New York in Game 6 of the 1994 NBA Finals (4.5 leverage index)
9. Chauncey Billups
Adjusted AWS/game: 10.9 | 20.7 PPG | 61.7 TS% | 4.3 RPG | 5.8 APG | 1.2 St+Bk/G
Few players have ever been as offensively efficient as Billups, who embodied the modern ethos of emphasizing the most efficient shots on the basketball court (take as many threes and free throws as you can) before it was cool. Combine that stat-friendly style with a deserving clutch rep as "Mr. Big Shot," and it's a recipe for success on this list.
Signature Performance: 34 pts (55.1 TS%)/7 ast/5 reb/1 TO versus San Antonio in Game 5 of the 2005 Finals (4.3 leverage index)
8. Clyde Drexler
Adjusted AWS/game: 11.3 15 GP | 24.5 PPG | 55.7 TS% | 8.3 RPG | 6 APG | 1.9 St+Bk/G
When most people think of Drexler in the Finals, they remember Michael Jordan eviscerating him in 1992's marquee matchup of shooting guards. However, while Drexler wasn't at his best in that series, he played much better in the oft-forgotten 1990 Finals against Detroit -- 26.4 PPG (59.8 TS%)/7.8 RPG/6.2 APG -- and was a criminally underrated aspect of the Rockets' 1995 title run. It is frequently assumed that Olajuwon did it all by himself that year, but Drexler averaged 21.5 PPG (56.0 TS%), 9.5 RPG, and 6.8 APG in those Finals, hardly the numbers of a lowly role player.
Signature Performance: 34 pts/10 ast/8 reb versus Detroit in Game 4 of the 1990 NBA Finals (3.2 leverage index)
7. Pau Gasol
Adjusted AWS/game: 11.3 | 17.3 PPG | 58.5 TS% | 10.4 RPG | 3.2 APG | 2.3 St+Bk/G
Like Drexler, Gasol's Finals résumé has also been somewhat misunderstood. His 2008 performance was seen as a dud for a lack of physicality and toughness inside, yet he averaged 10.2 RPG and shot 53.2 percent from the floor while scoring 14.7 PPG, even drawing fouls at a very high rate of 0.55 FTA for every FGA. In 2009 and 2010, he produced at a higher level, averaging a double-double (18.6 PPG/10.6 RPG) with 2.3 blocks per game, and his 19 points and 18 boards helped bail out the Lakers when Kobe Bryant went cold (37.6 TS%) in the single highest-leverage game of the past 28 years. (Incidentally, that game is a big reason why Bryant doesn't appear on this clutch-weighted list.)
Signature Performance: 19 pts/18 reb versus Boston in Game 7 of the 2010 NBA Finals (9.2 leverage index)
6. Larry Bird
Adjusted AWS/game: 11.4 | 24.1 PPG | 55.5 TS% | 9.8 RPG | 7.5 APG | 2.7 St+Bk/G
As we mentioned in the conference finals version of this article, Bird's entire body of postseason work isn't included in this dataset, which is a shame. However, that which we do have data for -- the 1986 Finals against Houston and the 1987 Finals against the Lakers -- was spectacular, with Bird producing in practically every column on the stat sheet. His work against the Rockets in particular was jaw-dropping; Bird averaged a near-triple double with 24 PPG, 9.7 RPG, and 9.5 APG and saved arguably his best performance for Game 6, the most important of the series by leverage index.
Signature Performance: 29 pts/12 ast/11 reb versus Houston in Game 6 of the 1986 NBA Finals (4.0 leverage index)
5. Shaquille O'Neal
Adjusted AWS/game: 11.7 | 28.8 PPG | 59 TS% | 13.1 RPG | 3.4 APG | 2.6 St+Bk/G
O'Neal barely missed our conference finals list, but there was no way he wouldn't show up on the Finals version. Few players have ever been more unstoppable at their peak than O'Neal, and he may very well have ranked first on this entire list if we focused solely on his performance during the Lakers' three-peat of 2000-02. However, Shaq does drop to fifth after including his other three Finals appearances (1995, 2004, 2006). You might think 1995 is what drops him the most, but it's actually 2006 -- Games 5 and 6 of those Finals were actually the two highest-leverage games of Shaq's Finals career, and he faded into the background with 13.5 PPG on a 44.9 TS% as Dwyane Wade took over.
Signature Performance: 43 pts/19 reb versus Indiana in Game 1 of the 2000 NBA Finals (3.0 leverage index)
4. Dwyane Wade
Adjusted AWS/game: 12.0 | 28.2 PPG | 57 TS% | 7 RPG | 4.7 APG | 3.1 St+Bk/G
Several years ago, John Hollinger was asked to rank the 50 greatest NBA Finals performances since the merger, and Wade's 2006 demolition of Dallas stood alone at the top of the list. It's not hard to see why -- Wade averaged 34.7 PPG for the entire series, and he poured it on even more when the moments got bigger, putting up 39.5 PPG in Games 5 and 6 (by far the two biggest games of the series by leverage index). And since that coming-out party, all Wade's done in the Finals is average 26.5 PPG (61.4 TS%)/7.0 RPG/5.2 APG in 2011 (not his fault Miami lost), and 22.6 PPG/6.0 RPG/5.2 APG a year ago.
Signature Performance: 36 pts/10 reb/7 blk+stl at Dallas in Game 6 of the 2006 NBA Finals (5.6 leverage index)
3. Tim Duncan
Adjusted AWS/game: 12.2 | 22.7 PPG | 52.5 TS% | 14.4 RPG | 3.4 APG | 3.9 St+Bk/G
As great as Wade has been in the Finals over his career, Duncan, his 2013 Finals opponent, has been even more sensational. Winning four rings will do that for your reputation, but Duncan put in serious work along the way, bursting onto the scene with a 27.4 PPG (59.9 TS%)/14.0 RPG stat line against the Knicks in 1999, and ripping New Jersey in 2003 for an astounding 24.2 PPG/17.0 RPG/5.3 APG/5.3 BPG. His numbers were slightly lower (19.7 PPG/13.2 RPG/2.2 BPG) in subsequent Finals, but his overall résumé is staggering.
Signature Performance: 32 pts/20 reb/6 ast/10 blk+stl versus New Jersey in Game 1 of the 2003 NBA Finals (3.4 leverage index)
2. Earvin "Magic" Johnson
Adjusted AWS/game: 13.0 | 20.6 PPG | 62 TS% | 6.6 RPG | 12.1 APG | 1.9 St+Bk/G
In the range of his Finals career that we cover here (1987-1991), Johnson had reached his greatest peak as a player, combining the highest passing and shooting skill levels of his career with still-excellent rebounding and a bigger role in the Lakers' offense than ever. You saw the full measure of his talent during the 1987 Finals in particular, when Magic's averages were 26.2 PPG (59.0 TS%)/13.0 APG/8.0 RPG/2.3 SPG, one of the finest NBA Finals performances of all time. It's not crazy to think Johnson would have challenged for the number one spot here if we could include pre-1986 performances like his 42 points, 15 rebounds, 7 assists, and 3 steals in the 1980 clincher.
Signature Performance: 22 pts/20 ast versus Boston in Game 2 of the 1987 NBA Finals (3.1 leverage index)
1. Michael Jordan
Adjusted AWS/game: 14.0 35 GP | 33.6 PPG | 55.9 TS% | 6 RPG | 6 APG | 2.4 St+Bk/G
Even if we did include Johnson's entire Finals oeuvre, though, he probably doesn't match Jordan. That's no knock; the Finals were just the time when Jordan left everybody else behind in the dust. It's impossible to begin to detail MJ's career Finals accomplishments in this space, so I'll just leave you by simply stating that his Bulls won all 15 of his 15 highest-leverage career Finals games, matchups in which Jordan averaged 33.9 PPG (56.6 TS%), 6.5 RPG, 5.1 APG, and 1.9 SPG. In his four highest-leverage games, he averaged 40.5 PPG on a 60.5 TS%. This, more than anything else, is why Chicago was unbeatable in big games during their run with MJ in the 1990s.
Signature Performance: 45 pts/4 stl at Utah in Game 6 of the 1998 Finals (5.3 leverage index)
2013 NBA Playoffs: Greatest Individual Postseasons 6-10 - ESPN
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2013 NBA Draft - Which players are future All-Stars, instant starters, ROY candidates - ESPN
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Who will win Rookie of the Year?
Welcome to the Insider edition of 5-on-5! This panel is dedicated solely to debating the 2013 NBA draft. In this edition, our experts -- Chad Ford, Kevin Pelton, Fran Fraschilla, Dave Telep and Amin Elhassan -- tackle possible player outcomes for this year's draft class.
1. Which player is an instant starter?
Chad Ford: That's tough to answer before we see where a player is drafted. Teams don't always draft for need. But if you're looking for NBA ready, Anthony Bennett has an NBA body and an advanced offensive game. As long as his shoulder heals, he should start right away.
Kevin Pelton: C.J. McCollum. Outside the top five picks, I think McCollum is the most ready to fill a role immediately if he gets drafted by a team like the Minnesota Timberwolves who have an opening at shooting guard.
Fran Fraschilla: Victor Oladipo. Given that all of the teams in the lottery need immediate help and he helps on both ends of the floor instantly, Oladipo will start from day one on whichever team selects him. His talent won't make a team necessarily better, but his work ethic and attitude should help begin to change a bad team's culture.
Amin Elhassan: Trick question. Many of the teams in the lottery are so talent-starved that whoever they draft will almost certainly start for them instantly. But if we're talking about which player would have approximate starter value out of the gate, Otto Porter is the pick. His versatility, polish and willingness to do the little things make him an ideal candidate.
Dave Telep: Porter. His story is Hollywood-esque. He wins state titles at the same school his parents did, plays little AAU ball, then erupts at Georgetown and goes early in the draft. He's a quietly successful, blue-collar small forward who manages to seize each moment. One concern is he's not an elite athlete.
2. Which player is a future All-Star?
Ford: I'm sure there will be a future All-Star in this group but it's so hard to peg right now. I think I'll go again with Bennett here. He has considerable upside and doesn't seem to have the same bust potential of others on the list.
Pelton: Porter. Despite the concern about Porter's upside, his WARP projection of 2.6 per year over his first five seasons suggests All-Star potential. Of the 25 players with projected WARP between 2 and 3 drafted from 2003 through 2008, nine have made at least one All-Star appearance.
Fraschilla: Ben McLemore. After only one season of college basketball, he hasn't figured it all out yet. But no one in this draft has his combination elite NBA athleticism and size at the shooting guard position and a Ray Allen-like shooting stroke. It wouldn't shock me if you woke me up in 12 years and told me he was going to the Hall of Fame.
Elhassan: If he can develop a reliable perimeter jump shot, Michael Carter-Williams. Point guards with his size and feel don't come along very often, and if he gets in the right situation, he can make a huge impact on wins and losses, which will help drive the strength of his All-Star candidacy.
Telep: McLemore. Most All-Stars hang their hats on that little extra the other guys don't have. With McLemore, it's the obvious athletic explosiveness mixed with the ability to generate diverse offense. Bill Self had to implore him at times to shoot. One day the light goes on and the talent takes over. He doesn't realize his own talent level.
3. Which player will win Rookie of the Year?
Ford: Again, without knowing the team and fit, so tough to know. I'm sounding like a broken record here, but I'm going with Bennett. If he's an instant starter and has the potential to be a future All-Star, he also should be the favorite for Rookie of the Year.
Pelton: McLemore. Rookie of the Year is as much about opportunity as it is ability, and McLemore is likely to go to a team that badly needs his scoring punch. That could translate into more impressive per-game numbers than the other top picks put up as rookies.
Fraschilla: Porter. Somehow, I think Porter will end up playing with a terrific young point guard in Cleveland or Washington and, if that happens, his rookie year will come easier to him. As a shot-maker, he will play off dribble penetration perfectly, as will Kyrie Irving or John Wall, and he'll put points on the board immediately.
Elhassan: McLemore. Eight out of the past 10 Rookie of the Year winners led rookies in scoring, showing the voters give preference to players who throw points on the board. McLemore might be the most complete scorer, and he'll most likely go to a team that will allow him to hoist shots.
Telep: Trey Burke. The ROY has been a guard four of the past five years and three of those went to true point guards. If you're drafting him, you're playing him. And without instant star power in the draft, this will be a production award, so Burke's steady play will earn him the nod.
4. Which player could be a disappointment?
Ford: I worry about the expectations we are putting on McLemore. He has All-Star talent, but I'm not sure he has the mental makeup to maximize his potential. I worry he could be the second coming of Brandon Rush.
Pelton: Oladipo. Don't get me wrong -- I love Oladipo's defensive potential. However, if a team drafts him in the top five expecting a two-way star, I think they might be disappointed. Players who use possessions as infrequently as Oladipo did in college rarely develop into big scorers in the NBA.
Fraschilla: Cody Zeller. I won't mind eating crow if Zeller has a stellar rookie season, but if I were staring at selecting him in the lottery, I would pass on him. He is the best running big man in the draft, and he will be very good at defending the screen-and-roll on the perimeter. But I can't get out of my mind his inability to hold his ground in the low post, as he failed to do last season against Minnesota.
Elhassan: Nerlens Noel. As the presumptive No. 1 overall pick, there are going to be enormous expectations to be a franchise player. Add in his recovery from ACL surgery, and the fact that bigs usually take longer to develop than perimeter players, and it's a recipe for unrealized expectations.
Telep: Carter-Williams. Relative to where he's going to be selected, the expectations could be too high for him. This is a good player with issues shooting and occasionally valuing the ball; both are concerning for a rookie. The size is tantalizing and driving his ascension.
5. Which player will be the biggest surprise?
Ford: Dario Saric. A number of GMs swear, on talent, he's a top-five pick. Saric is putting up impressive numbers in Croatia right now. He's a hard worker with a crazy high basketball IQ. He could be this draft's sleeper.
Pelton: Pierre Jackson. I think whoever drafts Jackson late in the first round or early in the second will be pleasantly surprised by how quickly he helps them as a score-first point guard off the bench.
Fraschilla: Dennis Schroeder. Dominating a couple of high school All-American point guards in the Nike Hoop Summit was just the icing on the cake for me. After an outstanding summer at the European Under-20 championships in 2012 and a solid season as a German BBL All-Star, I am high on him. Comparing him to Rajon Rondo might be premature but not outrageous, either.
Elhassan: Another trick question! This draft is thin on stars and thick on unknowns, but Giannis Antetokounmpo might be the biggest unknown of them all. He's just 18, and he's got a tantalizing skill set for a player his size. He's a long way from being able to contribute, which will cost him in terms of draft position, but he has a chance to be one of the best players in this class.
Telep: Shabazz Muhammad. There's a lot of noise around him. My feeling is this kid will immerse himself in hoops and outperform his draft slot. The guy I met five years ago is driven and internalizes things. The kid is feisty. Feels like even as a rookie it's now or never.
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LeBron James-Dwyane Wade not working - Heat Index Blog - ESPN
Can I get this Skoob so I can make some semblance of what I saw last nite
Can I get this Skoob so I can make some semblance of what I saw last nite
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