Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

Skooby

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Any questions?

Wait, where are Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen?


I had the same question when I ran the numbers. But after glancing at their track record, it makes sense that they're not on this list. After 2008, who was the Big Three? Was it Garnett, Pierce and Allen? Or was it Garnett, Pierce and Rajon Rondo? Or was it Pierce, Allen and Rondo when Garnett got hurt? If you have to debate it for several years, then it's probably not a Big Three. It's a Big Four.


Magic Johnson, James Worthy and Michael Cooper have the most postseason wins of any trio in NBA history. What gives?

This is a fact: Johnson, Worthy and Cooper have 110 postseason wins together, and only the current Spurs trio of Duncan, Parker and Ginobili (101 wins) can come even close to that staggering figure.

So why don't they get any love on this list? Simply put: Cooper just wasn't good enough offensively.

Not to take anything away from a fine, decorated career in the NBA, but Cooper averaged double-digit scoring only twice in his 12-year career and averaged over 30 minutes only once. He was a mainstay on the All-Defense squads and won the 1986-87 Defensive Player of the Year award, but from an all-around standpoint, Cooper didn't quite measure up; he posted only a five-win season three times in his career, according to WARP, which, as a box-score-based metric, admittedly might underrate his defensive capabilities.

Still, it probably wouldn't be enough to vault past the other Lakers greats on his teams.


Can Miami's current Big Three become the best ever?

Definitely. But they'd better beat the Spurs first. Not only would a 2013 championship automatically catapult the Heat into the top five, it would all but guarantee that Riley will not break up the core ahead of the new CBA luxury tax guillotine.

What would it take for them to overtake the Celtics' trio? Another two seasons of dominance. At their current pace (let's assume they don't win the 2013 title), the Heat would need another two seasons to come close to topping the Celtics' composite WARP score of 226.5, which could possibly occur sometime during the 2014-15 season. They just need 81.2 more points to do so and they've been averaging 72.7 every season together. That is, if they stick together.

But as we've seen with Jordan's Bulls, anything can happen. And that includes the best player in the game leaving in his prime to play another sport. LeBron as an NFL tight end, anyone?
 

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N.C. State could make draft history in '14

The 2013 draft has come and gone, and now scouting directors and area scouts turn their full attention to the 2014 class. Obviously a lot can change over a full year, but the folks that I've had the chance to talk to have an optimistic view of the 2014 class.

"On paper, it's a much better crop (than 2013)," an NL scout said. "It's not the strongest group of advanced bats again, but there's so much more depth than there has been the past two years, particularly with the high school hitters and even more particularly up the middle. This year, other than J.P. Crawford, there isn't one high school shortstop I would have taken in the first round. Next year, there's about four or five that I'd consider. It's all speculation, but I feel much more confident about getting a quality player this year than the last two."

There are several intriguing storylines to follow until June, but here are three of the more compelling ones to follow over the draft year.

A chance for history

There have been several schools to produce multiple first-round picks in a year. We've even seen a school produce two of the top three selections in 2011, when Gerrit Cole and Trevor Bauer went first and third in 2011 coming out of UCLA. But in 2014, we may see something we've never -- and may never again -- seen before; the first two selections in a draft coming from the same school.

That's because North Carolina State left-handed pitcher Carlos Rodon and shortstop Trea Turner will start the summer on or near the top of most teams' boards. Both put up sensational numbers over 2013, with Rodon striking out 178 batters in 127 innings, and Turner putting up a .376/.460/.571 line with 27 stolen bases through Sunday.

"Obviously there's a long way to go, but they start the year on top of my board," an NL scouting director said. "Seeing what Turner did at shortstop this year, with true 80 [on the 20-80 scouting scale] speed and some offensive projection, that's obviously appealing. He's a true leadoff hitter, the type of guy who can steal you a bunch of bases and most importantly, he can get on base.

"And then of course Rodon, two 70-grade pitches from a southpaw with an advanced idea of how to miss bats and the size you look for in an ace. It wouldn't shock me one bit if they were the first two names off the board."

Rodon showed the world what all the fuss is about when he threw a complete game against North Carolina on Sunday in the College World Series. He struck out eight while allowing just five hits and two walks in an 8-1 Wolfpack win against their archrival.

Georgia is loaded. Again.

The Peach State has produced eight Day 1 picks over the last two drafts, and there's more on the way in 2014. Gainesville High School's Michael Gettys is one of the true two-way prospects in the class, with a low to mid 90's fastball and a curve that will flash plus, and he is also a very good athlete who recently ran a 6.4 60. Georgia also has hard throwers, like right-hander Dylan Cease (Milton H.S.) and left-hander Mac Marshall (Parkview H.S.), and one of the better power prospects in the draft in Kel Johnson, who is home-schooled. This is just the tip of the iceberg for the talent in the state this year, and we could easily see seven to ten players go in the first two rounds next June.

The "battle" for the picks

It looked like there were only two competitors for the top pick earlier in the year, with the Astros and Marlins holding commanding leads over the rest of baseball.

But the rest of baseball has -- for lack of a better term -- caught up. Miami and Houston are still in the first two spots, but the Mets, Brewers, Cubs, White Sox, Dodgers and Angels are all within four games of the No. 2 pick. Several of those teams could be in sell mode come the trade deadline, and their moves could play a major role in the 2014 draft order.

In addition to the storylines, here's a few of the players who have put themselves onto the radar to follow over the summer and the 2014 season.

College pitchers

Tyler Beede, RHP | Vanderbilt
Beede was selected No. 21 overall by the Blue Jays out of a Massachussetts prep school in 2011, but chose to go to college instead of signing. He will sit in the low 90s and also flash an above-average curve and change, but needs to improve his command if he's going to challenge Rodon to be the first pitcher off the board.

Michael Cederoth, RHP | San Diego State
Cederoth can flat out bring it -- routinely clocked in the high 90's and has hit triple digits on several occasions -- but the secondary stuff is average at best.

Brandon Finnegan, LHP | TCU
While he's not the biggest guy (5-foot-11, 195 pounds), Finnegan has great feel for pitching, as well as a mid-90s heater, a breaking ball and change that will both flash plus.

Sean Newcomb, LHP | Hartford
He isn't on many radars yet, but 6-foot-5, 240-pound left-handers who have hit 97 on guns with a solid slider, like Newcomb has, don't stay off of them for long.

Aaron Nola, RHP | LSU
Nola has dominated SEC hitters this season thanks to solid command and three above-average pitches.

College bats

Matt Chapman, 3B | Cal-State Fullerton
Chapman can really play third base with a very strong arm, and there's some raw offensive ability as well.

Michael Conforto, LF | Oregon State
Conforto doesn't stand out anywhere, but possesses above-average tools across the board and has performed very well over his career as a Beaver.

Derek Fisher, OF | Virginia
He might have more power than any outfielder in the class, but will have to show more consistency than he has over the past two seasons.

Kyle Schwarber, C/1B | Indiana
He's not a lock to stay behind the plate, but the bat should be able to play at first with above-average power and bat speed.

Mason Robbins, OF | Southern Miss
Robbins has an advanced approach at the plate and projects to put up above-average offensive numbers from a corner outfield position.

Prep pitchers

Brady Aiken, LHP | Cathedral Catholic HS (San Diego)
Aiken has projection in his 6-foot-5 frame, as well as an above-average curve and good feel for pitching.

Grant Holmes, RHP | Conway (S.C.) HS
One of the more complete pitchers in the class, Holmes is consistently 92-95 with a plus curveball and an improving change.

Tyler Kolek, RHP | Shepherd (Tex.) HS
One of the hardest throwers in the class, Kolek has been clocked in the high 90s and can throw his breaking ball for strikes as well. His brother Stephen is a top prospect for the 2015 class.

Justus Sheffield, LHP | Tullahoma (Tenn.) HS
Sheffield doesn't have a ton of projection in his left arm, but the nephew of Gary Sheffield does have good athleticism, a low 90s fastball and plus change.

Touki Toussaint, RHP | Coral Springs (Fla.) HS
A 70-grade fastball and a 70-grade curve from an athletic right-hander is what you get from Toussaint, and it's why he's considered by many to be the best prep hurler in the class.

Prep hitters

Sean Bouchard, 3B | Cathedral Catholic HS (San Diego)
Bouchard is a bit of a tweener -- there's not enough arm strength for third nor the footwork for shortstop -- but it looks like he's going to hit wherever he ends up. With him and Aiken on the same high school squad, expect scouts to be spending a lot of time at Cathedral Catholic next spring.

Jacob Gatewood, SS | Clovis (Calif.) HS
Gatewood has a ton of raw power from the right side, and the arm strength and athleticism to make shortstop a real possibility despite his size (6-foot-4, 190 pounds).

Nick Gordon, SS | Olympia HS (Orlando)
Some may be tempted to have Gordon pitch -- he's the son of Tom, and he has a 91-93 fastball and a hammer of a breaking ball like his dad -- but he's too good of a hitter to not end up at shortstop.

Alex Jackson, C | Rancho Bernardo HS (San Diego)
Jackson will likely be moved off the plate simply because his bat is too valuable. I've had many scouts tell me Jackson is the best player in the entire class.

Justin Smith, OF | Bartram Trail HS (St. Johns, Fla.)
It's all very raw, but Smith has plus bat speed and can move well enough to be a quality center fielder at the next level if the tools begin to show up in games.
 

Skooby

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Unwrapping unforgettable Game 6

Tuesday night's Game 6 of the NBA Finals marked the first time since 1974's Game 6 that a potential championship-clinching game went to overtime. Getting there, and then forcing a deciding Game 7 on Thursday, required a pair of improbable comebacks by the Miami Heat in a game nobody who watched will ever forget. With so many twists in the plot, and so much at stake, there's plenty to discuss. Let's take a look at some of the most important questions.

How unlikely was Miami's comeback?

By all accounts, the title should have belonged to the San Antonio Spurs. Leading by four with possession and just 28 seconds remaining, the Spurs had a 98.5 percent chance of winning the game and the championship, according to Betting Market Analytics' in-game win probability. Put it another way: Before Manu Ginobili walked to the free throw line for two attempts (he'd split, giving Miami a slight opening for a comeback), the odds against the Heat winning were 66-1. That's how close we were to San Antonio finishing the game with a celebration.

From another perspective, the Spurs were six seconds away. With that much time remaining on the clock, Chris Bosh came up with a crucial offensive rebound and found Ray Allen in the corner for the contested 3-pointer that tied the score and set up overtime. Before Allen's shot, Betting Market Analytics says the Heat had a 6.1 percent chance of winning.

Even in the third quarter, the odds were against Miami. When San Antonio pushed its lead to 12 in the final minute of the period, the Spurs improved their chances of winning to 84.9 percent. Alas, San Antonio learned the hard way that probability isn't the same as certainty.

Should the Spurs have fouled?

With a three-point lead, San Antonio had the opportunity to intentionally foul the Heat on their last possession of regulation, preventing them from taking a tying 3-pointer. Note that this isn't entirely second-guessing, because ABC's Mike Breen brought up the possibility on the broadcast as Miami dribbled upcourt. In the postgame news conference, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich seemed to dismiss the notion, telling an international reporter that while teams do employ such strategies in Europe, "We don't."

The math on whether to foul when up by three is contentious. The issue has been studied more comprehensively at the NCAA level, where the most recent study by Insider contributor Ken Pomeroy found teams lost more frequently when they chose to foul.

The more possessions left in the game, the worse idea it is to foul because it requires the team with the lead to make more free throws. The Heat took possession with 19 seconds on the clock, which is probably too early to foul even though Miami was out of timeouts. By the time Allen got the ball in the corner, it was too late to foul him before he was in his shooting motion.

That left just one good opportunity for San Antonio to foul -- hacking Bosh as soon as he secured the rebound. However, the play developed quickly and Popovich had no chance to discuss the possibility with his players because there was no timeout beforehand.

Where was Duncan?

Consider this Popovich's Frank Vogel moment. Both of the Heat's 3-pointers in the final minute of regulation came following offensive rebounds, and both came with the Spurs' best rebounder (Tim Duncan) sitting on the bench and Boris Diaw in his place. Popovich faced the same problem as Vogel did with Roy Hibbert in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference finals: How to hide a slower, bigger defender when Miami spaces the floor late in games.

On the first of the two plays, Bosh wasn't even on the floor as the Heat went with a tiny unit. So Duncan would have been forced to match up with someone like Mike Miller. On the second, Duncan might not have been a factor anyway because Bosh set a screen for LeBron James. In fact, Diaw was the closest to contesting James' errant 3-point attempt.

Ultimately, Duncan probably would not have made a difference in terms of securing the necessary defensive rebound. However, his absence from the game and subsequent return could have opened the door to a protest had Miami lost. After referees reviewed Allen's shot to confirm it was a 3-pointer, Duncan checked back into the game -- a substitution that should not have been allowed, as noted by Ethan J. Skolnick of the Palm Beach Post.

Too much Manu?

In his second consecutive start, Ginobili was unable to reprise his Game 5 heroics. He had nearly as many turnovers (eight) as points (nine), yet played nearly 35 minutes, including the entirety of the fourth quarter and much of overtime. Incredibly, San Antonio was outscored by 21 points with Ginobili on the floor, meaning the Spurs outscored the Heat by a point per minute in the 18 he spent on the bench.

In part, Popovich's options were limited by Miami's commitment to small ball. Fewer minutes for big men means more minutes for perimeter reserves, especially with Ginobili handling backup point guard duties in this series. And the alternative option at shooting guard, Gary Neal, was suffering through his own off night (2-of-7 from the field, minus-5 plus-minus). Still, Popovich has to figure out a way to get productive minutes from the combination of Ginobili and center Tiago Splitter (minus-13 in eight minutes) in order to get needed rest for Duncan and Tony Parker.

Should LeBron ditch the headband?

In the process of dunking home his rebound of a Mario Chalmers miss at the nine-minute mark of the fourth quarter, James lost his signature headband. For the rest of regulation and overtime, James played without the headband. He dominated the next few minutes as the Heat rallied to tie the score, leading Twitter to wonder whether James should lose the headband for good.

Counting the tip dunk, James played better after losing his headband, but the difference -- as measured by John Hollinger's game score per 36 minutes -- wasn't enormous. He scored more frequently and more efficiently, which was offset in part by the fact that he came up with only two of his 11 assists down the stretch and struggled at times with turnovers.

Headband? Min FG 3P FT Reb Ast TO Pts GS/36
Yes 36 5-14 0-2 8-10 6 9 2 18 18.8
No 14 6-12 1-3 1-2 4 2 4 14 21.1

Even with the headband, James had started to raise his level of play to begin the fourth quarter, handing out a pair of assists and scoring in the first three minutes. For his part, James doesn't think his accessory -- or lack thereof -- mattered much.

"I guess the headband was the least of my worries at that point," he said.
 

Skooby

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What's next for the Heat?

Three seasons into the Miami Experiment, here's what we have: Two championships, three Eastern Conference titles and a scintillating, seven-game victory over the dynastic San Antonio Spurs. What's next? For no team did the answer to that question depend more upon one game. If Miami had lost on Thursday, we'd be talking about the shocking decline and fall of the Heat as we know them. Now, we're celebrating Pat Riley's star-powered project, one which by any measure can be judged a resounding success.

Riley and Erik Spoelstra constructed a team around LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh that was all about supporting that trio. They loaded up with role players, especially shooters. They went with veterans over young talent. They went with speed over size. In short, they developed a philosophy and a style of play that was entirely about showcasing the Big Three. And who could blame them?

At times in this postseason, the pace-and-space brand sputtered once Miami ran into other high-level teams with strengths in all the areas in which the Heat were vulnerable, first against Indiana in the East finals, then the Spurs. With Wade and Bosh looking at times like mere outlines of their normal selves, the Heat barely had enough weapons, or enough balance, to withstand the Pacers' battering in the paint. Then Miami barely survived San Antonio's inside-outside barrage over the past couple of weeks.

The Heat will certainly be at the forefront of the championship conversation next season, but unless they continue to adapt to a league that has evolved to beat them, can we expect next spring's outcome to be any different? The Heat have made good on the Miami Experiment's initial promise of bringing multiple championships to South Beach, but what does Riley have to do for his squad to add to the tally?

The good

The regular season and first two rounds of the playoffs. From the first day of training camp, the only criterion for evaluating the 2012-13 Miami Heat was this: Did they win the championship? A loss to San Antonio wouldn't have completely invalidated everything that happened over the past seven months, but it would have come close. There isn't another current franchise that you'd say that about.

Everything through the second round of the postseason was all good, even if the cracks that eventually led to Miami's downfall were evident -- if you looked hard enough. Beginning on Feb. 2, the Heat ran off 27 straight wins, the second-longest streak in league history. Miami won a franchise-record 66 games, landed the No. 1 seed in the East and, through the second-round win over Chicago, had won 45 of 48 games. James won the MVP award for the second time during his three seasons with the Heat.

The last two rounds were far from disappointing, of course. Flags fly forever. You do have to wonder if the Pacers and Spurs exposed Miami in a way that will prevent a three-peat come next June.

The bad

Dwyane Wade's troublesome knees. If there is one factor that could send James shopping for a new team during the summer of 2014, it's Wade's knee trouble. We've been here before with Wade, a little more than five years ago. At that point, he had missed 62 games over two seasons, and his level of play slipped to the point that some people were comparing his career to the injury-truncated path of Penny Hardaway. Ultimately, Wade came back better than ever.

This year's injury was to the other knee, a bone bruise that never was able to heal, so it's an entirely different malady. Wade has endured immense punishment during his 10 NBA seasons, with a rough-and-tumble style that once served as the basis for an ad campaign. Unlike 2008, when Wade was just entering his prime, he'll turn 32 next season, a perilous time on the aging curve for shooting guards. On a per-possession basis, Wade had his poorest season in five years and as the wear on his body takes its toll, he'll need to adapt to more of a ground-based game and his minutes will have to be managed.

Chris Bosh's soft interior game. Bosh has featured his full skill set so infrequently in Miami that it's impossible to know how much of his game remains intact. He's efficient -- his true shooting percentage of .592 this season matched his career high. However, he used 6 percent fewer possessions this season than he did during his last season with Toronto, and as his role in the Miami offense shrinks, so do his supporting stats. Bosh's foul-drawing rate was a career low and despite focusing more on the offensive glass, his overall rebound rate was also a career worst.

Lack of rebounding, rim protection and post scoring. Miami's perimeter blitzkrieg allowed the Heat to sail through their first 91 games, but the lack of bulk on the interior rendered that somewhat irrelevant over their last 13 contests. The Heat played chicken with teams all season, daring them to stay big while Miami fired away from 3-point range and converted turnovers to points with breathtaking efficiency. That allowed Miami to protect the rim with one big guy for most of the season. The Heat finished a solid 10th in block rate, but were 23rd in defensive rebounding. Both those areas collapsed when Indiana and San Antonio proved that they could stay big and still defend the Miami shooters.

Lack of cap flexibility. The Big Three took less-than-max money to get together, but with all three earning standard annual raises per the old CBA, their combined cap number in 2013-14 will be $56.8 million. Unless Riley does something drastic with one of the Big Three, we're looking at the same formula next season: the Big Three and a lot of low-salaried role players. The Heat do not own a pick in the upcoming draft.

Summer decisions and questions

Will Ray Allen be back?
Allen had an iffy 17th NBA season, and he'll be 38 before next season starts, but he was solid in the playoffs, shooting 40-plus percent from 3-point range and averaging nearly 18 points per 40 minutes. His late-game heroics in Game 6 will forever be a part of Miami basketball lore. Allen's individual regular-season winning percentage of .518 was the lowest since his rookie season, and he was more of a specialist than ever. With Miami again limited to the mini-midlevel exception and minimum-salaried players, it would be tough for the Heat to find a comparable talent on the market.

Will Mike Miller and Chris Andersen be back?
Miller seemed ripe for retirement until he resurfaced in Miami's rotation during the San Antonio series. He can still shoot, but Miami doesn't lack for shooters. Unfortunately, even if Miller walks away, the $6.2 million he's due next season does nothing for the Heat other than to lessen the tax bill. As for Andersen, his play in the postseason was invaluable, though he didn't match up well with San Antonio.

He was signed for the veteran's minimum, but you wouldn't think he'll settle for that going forward. He's going to want that $3 million mini-midlevel money, and even that might not be enough if a non-tax-paying team comes calling. As it is, the Heat will probably have to choose between using the exception on Andersen, or taking their chances on another free-agent big man.

How can the Heat get bigger?
Unless Riley comes up with a creative way to swap Bosh, this again will come down to unexciting options on the veteran-minimum market, with Jermaine O'Neal coming to mind as an option. However, if Miller and Allen retire, Riley does still have the amnesty provision available, so he could go about seeing just how much cap space he could carve out around James and Wade. Possible, but unlikely.

Prognosis

Miami faces a long season of limbo. With few options to add missing elements to the roster, the Heat will be faced with a season of intense scrutiny since James, Wade and Bosh can all opt out of their current deals a year from now. With Wade possibly on the wane, and Bosh moving further away from his former star-level career, we might look at Thursday's win as the final hurrah for the NBA's last super team. We won't know that for sure until a year from now when, after another season under the microscope, the Heat will again be judged only on whether or not a championship parade is held in Miami.
 

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Who do NBA prospects resemble?

From fans to NBA executives, everyone loves making comparisons for the players in the NBA draft. Not only do such comparisons give us a better idea of how a given prospect plays, they can also help shed light on how his game will translate to the next level. The challenge is making the comparisons, and that's where my numbers come in.

Similarity scores are at the heart of the SCHOENE projection system, and I've used the same method to compare players in the draft to their collegiate predecessors based on 13 categories, including height and weight (from the DraftExpress measurement database).

There are a couple of shortcomings to this approach. First, there's a limited pool of draft prospects. In the NBA, SCHOENE picks among thousands of players for comparisons. My college database contains just 380 players dating back to 2003. Second, players are only compared to others within six months of age at the point they enter the draft, so no matter how similar a freshman's game might be to a senior, they won't come up as a comparison. (I have included some in the text as appropriate.)

As a result, some comparisons are better than others. Similarity is rated on a scale that maxes out at 100. A similarity score of 95 or higher is a good match, and anything below 90 is a bit of a stretch. Keep that in mind as I go through the top four comps for the players with projections in Chad Ford's top 30.



1. Nerlens Noel, Kentucky

Comparisons: Derrick Favors (86.3), Chris Bosh, Greg Oden, Brandan Wright

A truly unique prospect, Noel is the only player in the top 30 without a single similarity score of 90 or better. The only player who matched Noel's combination of elite block and steal rates was Kentucky (and possibly No. 1 overall pick) predecessor Anthony Davis, but Davis was too skilled overall to appear on this list.


2. Victor Oladipo, Indiana

Comparisons: Evan Turner (95.2), Corey Brewer, Marcus Banks, Chris Singleton

The player to whom Oladipo is most frequently compared, Tony Allen, has a 94.0 similarity. Allen was a year older when he was drafted out of Oklahoma State.


3. Otto Porter, Georgetown

Comparisons: Gordon Hayward (93.3), Alec Burks, Kawhi Leonard, Rudy Gay

Despite his reputation as a non-athlete, Porter gets some excellent athletes among his best comps. Paul George also shows up in the top 10.


4. Anthony Bennett, UNLV

Comparisons: Brandon Bass (97.3), Derrick Williams, Ryan Anderson, Jeff Green

Physically, Bennett and Bass are great comparisons. A couple factors make Bennett the better prospect. Superior range could eventually make Bennett a 3-point shooter, and he demonstrated more ability to create his own offense in college.


5. Ben McLemore, Kansas

Comparisons: Daniel Gibson (96.4), Willie Warren, Jeremy Lamb, Rashad McCants

McLemore would surely prefer the comparison to fellow St. Louis native Bradley Beal (96.7), but Beal was nearly a year and a half younger during his freshman season. Fellow Kansas guard Brandon Rush (96.9) is another player stylistically similar, albeit much older.


6. Alex Len, Maryland

Comparisons: Meyers Leonard (92.7), Darrell Arthur, Robin Lopez, JaVale McGee

Len draws a variety of projects who were generally better as NBA players, a group that also includes DeAndre Jordan.


7. C.J. McCollum, Lehigh

Comparisons: Ronnie Brewer (93.5), D.J. Kennedy, Mardy Collins, Cory Higgins

McCollum's comps include more shooting guards than point guards, which suggests his destiny may be off the ball. Damian Lillard ranks a bit lower in the top 10 here.


8. Trey Burke, Michigan

Comparisons: Reggie Jackson (92.8), Kemba Walker, Delonte West, D.J. Augustin

Proof Burke should be a Charlotte Bobcat. He's hoping to play more like Walker -- who quietly had a strong sophomore campaign -- than Augustin, something of a worst-case comparison.


9. Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse

Comparisons: Chris Duhon (90.3), Marcus Banks, Scott Machado, Jarrett Jack

Carter-Williams' combination of size and playmaking ability is statistically unique, at least among collegians over the last decade. Of the players 6-foot-6 or taller in my database, Julyan Stone (7.3) and Greivis Vasquez (7.0) are the lone pair with translated assist rates better than 7.0 percent of their team's plays. Carter-Williams (8.4) blows them away.


10. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia

Comparisons: Dion Waiters (94.1), Jordan Hamilton, Rashad McCants, Paul George

The late lottery seems about right for Caldwell-Pope by this measure; half of his top-10 comps were drafted between picks No. 9 and No. 15.


11. Cody Zeller, Indiana

Comparisons: LaMarcus Aldridge (95.2), Al Horford, Cedric Simmons, Josh McRoberts

The numbers agree with the Zeller-Aldridge comparison scouts made to Chad Ford, as well as one to Chris Bosh (95.8, but a year younger).


12. Steven Adams, Pittsburgh

Comparisons: Robin Lopez (96.3), JaVale McGee, Patrick O'Bryant, Daniel Orton

There's a good deal of overlap between Adams' comps and Len's group. The two center prospects have a similarity of 91.1 to each other.


13. Sergey Karasev, Russia

Comparisons: Martell Webster (95.3), J.R. Smith, Marvin Williams, Kevin Durant

International prospects, including Karasev, are compared to the full database of NBA players instead of NCAA players. Few wings played in the league at such a young age. If Karasev was compared to the college database, however, nobody would score better than 90.


14. Lucas Nogueira, Brazil

Comparisons: Johan Petro (95.7), Brandan Wright, Jermaine O'Neal, Robin Lopez

As a high-percentage finisher and quality shot blocker, Lopez might be the best comparison for "Bebe."


15. Dennis Schroeder, Germany

There are no statistical projections for Schroeder.

16. Shane Larkin, Miami (Fla.)

Comparisons: Patty Mills (97.7), Nate Robinson, Chris Paul, Kemba Walker

Larkin's similarity to Mills is the highest of any NCAA comp among the top 30. He'll be much more enthused about the comparison to Paul, another quick player in a compact frame with shooting ability.


17. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Greece

There are no statistical projections for Antetokounmpo.

18. Kelly Olynyk, Gonzaga

Comparisons: Markieff Morris (96.8), Jordan Hill, Darnell Jackson, Jeff Pendergraph

Morris makes sense for Olynyk as a pick-and-pop post player who has spent more time on the perimeter than in the paint as a pro.


19. Jamaal Franklin, San Diego State

Comparisons: Kyle Weaver (94.2), Antoine Wright, Evan Turner, Terrence Williams

Versatile wings like Franklin have a surprisingly poor NBA track record, in large part because of their perimeter shooting deficiencies.


20. Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA

Comparisons: Harrison Barnes (95.7), Terrico White, Wilson Chandler, Luke Babbitt

The best argument Muhammad's supporters can make in his defense is the incredible similarity between his situation and Barnes' experience. Both were unable to live up to high expectations in college. During the playoffs, Barnes showed he still has considerable NBA potential.


21. Tony Mitchell, North Texas

Comparisons: Markieff Morris (95.1), Earl Clark, Jeff Green, Dominic McGuire

Mitchell's ability to step to the perimeter earns comparisons to tweener forwards. None of them quite seems satisfying.


22. Isaiah Canaan, Murray State

Comparisons: Chris Quinn (96.3), Salim Stoudamire, Dee Brown, A.J. Price

The rest of Canaan's comps -- including Damian Lillard and Kirk Hinrich -- are more encouraging, but overall the group suggests he's more likely to be a backup than a starter in the NBA.


23. Mason Plumlee, Duke

Comparisons: Jackson Vroman (94.9), Miles Plumlee, Robert Sacre, Alexander Johnson

Jackson Vroman: The lost Plumlee brother?


24. Reggie Bullock, North Carolina

Comparisons: Anthony Morrow (95.8), Chris Johnson, Rodney Carney, Darius Miller

Bullock gets compared to a number of shooting specialists. That's the Chris Johnson who played briefly for Memphis last season, not the skinny center who played in Minnesota.


25. Allen Crabbe, California

Comparisons: Terrence Ross (96.2), Antoine Wright, Klay Thompson, Wayne Ellington

Ross, Thompson and Crabbe all played similar styles together in the Pac-12. None of them got to the free throw line on a regular basis despite the conference's whistle-happy reputation.


26. Ricardo Ledo, Providence

There are no statistical projections for Ledo, who spent his only season at Providence ineligible and thus has no NCAA stats.

27. Glen Rice Jr., NBDL

Comparisons: Mickael Pietrus (98.7), Jumaine Jones, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Hedo Turkoglu

If Rice is compared to the college database, his most similar player is Danny Green (97.2).


28. Tim Hardaway Jr., Michigan

Comparisons: Jordan Crawford (97.3), Wayne Ellington, Terrence Ross, Arron Afflalo

Hardaway's game is more reminiscent of another Crawford -- Jamal, also a Michigan product. However, Jamal Crawford played too early to be part of the database. The two Crawfords neatly represent the best and worst-case scenarios for volume scorers.


29. Gorgui Dieng, Louisville

Comparisons: Taj Gibson (95.8), Ekpe Udoh, Robert Sacre, Jackson Vroman

Because of their defensive ability, Gibson and Udoh have been two of the most successful older draft picks in recent memory. Dieng hopes to make that 3-for-3.


30. Tony Snell, New Mexico

Comparisons: Sonny Weems (91.3), Terrence Ross, Arron Afflalo, Malcolm Lee

While Ross may change this, of the seven players most similar to Snell, only Afflalo has rated better than replacement level in the NBA.
 
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FreedS[ohh]lave;4772386 said:

July road trip tips off with LeBron Day 1

LAS VEGAS -- I’m a believer in good starts, and Saturday was the first day of a month-long journey in search of the perfect recruit. However, before arriving at the LeBron James Skills Academy, I had to spend the better part of the day delayed at the Salt Lake City airport.

Determined not to let flight delays set the tone for the entire month, I turned to Jason Statham’s “Redemption” to see if the flick could change my fortunes. Didn’t work; movie stunk. But luckily the airline eventually got us a working plane headed for Sin City and I was on my way.

Day 1 of the LeBron camp featured a pair of sessions, of which I attended one. It was really a day of drills and a light scrimmage to end the evening. The camp takes on a more serious tone Sunday when they split up the 80 campers and start keeping score.

Here are some nuggets from Day 1.

Alexander vs. Turner

I know it’s early, but the first chapter of what could be a lengthy rivalry will get written at this camp. With No. 1 recruit Jahlil Okafor overseas playing for USA Basketball’s U19 team, Cliff Alexander (Chicago/Curie) and Myles Turner (Euless, Texas/Trinity) are the two best post players in the building.

They played a little bit against each other on Saturday with limited fireworks. An Alexander hook shot over Turner was the first direct hit. On the next possession, Alexander lost Myles and the Texan crammed one home. It was all an appetizer.

Here’s why a full-fledged matchup between these two needed to happen -- and will on Sunday. Alexander is a beast and he proved it during the spring. On the flip side, while LeBron had his Decision, Turner has his Ascension, going from unranked to No. 10 overall in the ESPN 100. Right now, Turner is picking off prospects and running downhill. Alexander is more physical and represents the “now.” Turner is futuristic and has more upside. These two will collide here and it should be the best individual matchup at LeBron.

By the way, Turner has size-21 sneakers. Yes, 21!

Rabb has more than his peers in the post

I watched the entire smattering of bigs go through skill work on Saturday. Some are better than others, and there are a lot of guys here who will be better as complementary players than go-to guys in college. One of the real hammers at camp is power forward Ivan Rabb (Oakland/Bishop O’Dowd), the nation’s No. 1 player in the 2015 class. In terms of low-post scoring, Rabb has more than a handful of ways to finish plays, and while many of his peers hunt a singular move, Rabb has counters.

Hoyas stand out to Kell

To hear him talk about his emergence, ESPN 100 guard Trey Kell (San Diego/St. Augustine) tells his story from a cookie-cutter script. Little-known player from a small city near San Diego wins a state title, has good grades, finds his confidence and the next thing you know he’s a shooting star. Well, it’s a little more complicated. Rest assured, this guy takes nothing for granted.

Kell’s father was a baseball player growing up in Baltimore. When his grandmother got sick, Trey’s dad chose to tend to his mom and a scholarship to Jackson State went to another player. His father’s path set the tone for Kell.

San Diego State, UC-Irvine, Gonzaga, Oregon and Arizona State are interested. When asked which program would be difficult to turn down, Kell said, “Georgetown would be hard to say no to. They’ve got kids with character and a great coach. What more could you want?”

Cheatham uses football background in hoops

I’d be willing to bet that ESPN 100 forward Zylan Cheatham (Phoenix/Westwind Prep) has been playing basketball for less time than almost any prospect at camp.

“I began playing hoops in eighth grade to stay in shape for football,” Cheatham said. “We won a championship (in basketball) and I didn’t like hoops until that moment.”

Now football is in his rearview mirror; he’s a basketball player full time -- and a good one. San Diego State, New Mexico, Washington, Georgetown and Miami are recruiting him. San Diego State, Washington and Louisville are teams he’s identified that play his style, which is up tempo and allowing him to push it on the break.

As for football, well, it influences him daily on the basketball court. “Football made me aggressive,” he said. “It gives me a mental edge over a lot of people.”

Quick hitters

• ESPN 100 power forward Angel Delgado (Troy, N.Y./Redemption Christian) was at it again on the boards after leading the Nike EYBL circuit in rebounds this spring. He’s difficult to explain outside of the fact that few guys seem to be able to box him out and he’s always in the action.

• ESPN 100 power forward Reid Travis (Minneapolis/De La Salle) reminds me of former Washington star Jon Brockman. They are both undersized power forwards with big hearts and good motors who will themselves to be important players.

• Arizona-bound ESPN 100 point guard Parker Jackson-Cartwright (Los Angeles/Loyola) is a good player -- that much we know. For the first time I found myself gravitating to his size (5-foot-8, 150 pounds) and just how small he is. We know he’s tough, but he’s also tiny.
 

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FreedS[ohh]lave;4772386 said:

Alexander dominates Day 2 at LeBron

LAS VEGAS -- Everyone was assembling. The stage was set for No. 10 rising senior Myles Turner (Euless, Texas/Trinity) to take on No. 2 Cliff Alexander (Chicago/Curie). Unfortunately, the much-anticipated matchup didn’t happen after a leg injury for Turner put this titanic tilt on ice.

Still, a long Day 2 at the LeBron James Skills Academy on Sunday and the first day of games allowed ample time to evaluate and gather intel on many premier players. Here are some nuggets from Day 2.

No Myles, but plenty of Alexander

The whole camp was hyped up to see the Turner vs. Alexander matchup. The high school and NBA scouts were ready, but only one party wound up having fun. A phone call from the camp trainer to Turner’s parents put the kibosh on the showdown. Turner’s leg injury wasn’t getting better and he had to sit this one out.

Alexander, well, he took full advantage of the stage.

Rising senior power forward Trey Mourning (Miami/Ransom Everglades), the son of Alonzo Mourning, wasn’t physically ready or strong enough to hold Alexander back. UNLV-bound ESPN 100 forward Dwayne Morgan (Baltimore/St. Frances) did the best he could, but the freight train that was Alexander still rambled through the lane.

Simply put, Alexander was awesome. Most of his rebounds were two-handed and he dunked everything in sight. His offensive game is coming together quicker than expected and the baby hook is his go-to move. As big and as strong as he is, he has room to improve as a finisher (outside of the dunking, of course). The only defense for Alexander is to attempt to knock him a foot off his sweet spot and take your chances.

In the nightcap, he went unchecked again. The entire day belonged to Alexander.

Game standouts

• I’ll remain a lean toward Malik Newman (Jackson, Miss./Callaway) as the top prospect in the 2015 class. He was unguardable in the evening game. He went wherever he wanted off the dribble, plus his jump shot is a major weapon. After Alexander, he may have turned in the day’s best body of work.

• This was my first time seeing left-handed 2014 scoring point guard Dominic Magee (Gretna, La./Helen Cox). Not too shabby at all. He has a toughness that bodes well for the future.

• Oklahoma State 2015 commitment Austin Grandstaff (Rockwall, Texas/Rockwall) has a big rep as a shooter. In the evening session, he shot it even beyond that reputation.

• He needs the ball in his hands, but when he’s locked in, Ohio State 2014 commitment D'Angelo Russell (Louisville, Ky./Montverde Academy) is a slick scorer with an accurate jump shot.

• Morgan is a guy who attacks his matchups. As a small forward, his inclination to score is born from the fact that he can both shoot it and put it on the deck.

• ESPN 60 small forward Malachi Richardson (Hamilton, N.J./Roselle Catholic) is a better shooter than he was last summer. The trick is to not just settle for jumpers. He was outstanding on Sunday and has room to grow.

• There’s a ton of sub-6-foot point guards floating around. But if there’s a better shooting one than ESPN 100 prospect Justin Coleman (Birmingham, Ala./Wenonah), I’ve yet to see him. Shooting is the strength of his game, and you feel good when he lets it fly. However, he’ll need to be careful with his college selection so as to not bite off more than he can handle. He’s more scorer than set-up man, and at his size that tends to even itself out in college.

Can USA Basketball spring another package deal?

Ivan Rabb (Oakland/Bishop O’Dowd), the top post player in the 2015 class, was part of USA Basketball’s U16 FIBA Americas championship team last month. So were Newman and 2015 center Diamond Stone (Milwaukee/Dominican). Rabb said he has formed relationships with Newman, Stone and fellow ESPN 60 prospect Isaiah Briscoe (Union, N.J./St. Benedict’s) and wouldn’t mind playing college ball with any of them. He’s also interested in seeing where his high school teammate, Paris Alston, winds up.

Following the summer, Rabb wants to trim his list to 10-15 schools. We know California, Arizona, Oregon, Kansas, Connecticut, North Carolina and Ohio State will be in the mix.

Johnson talks recruiting

There’s no doubt one of the big questions that needs to be addressed by college recruiters is just how good is ESPN 100 forward Jaylen Johnson (Ypsilanti, Mich./Ypsilanti), the son of Janetta Johnson, the single-season blocks leader for the Wisconsin women’s program.

During a post-up drill at LeBron, every big man had to run into a huge pad. Some guys approached the drill as if it was a pillow fight, others a dogfight. I can tell you this: No one hit the pad harder than Johnson. He had a purpose.

After averaging 13 points and 11 rebounds per game as a junior, Johnson went to work this spring establishing his reputation. Iowa State, Oregon, Miami, Michigan State, USC, Xavier and Louisville are looking.

Okonoboh, Noel are like brothers

A little more than a week ago, ESPN 100 center Goodluck Okonoboh (Boston/Wilbraham & Monson) saw his former AAU and high school teammate, Nerlens Noel, go No. 6 in the NBA draft.

“We call each other best friends, but we’re more like brothers,” Okonoboh said.

So, can Noel’s “brother” wind up at Kentucky? “I don’t know; they’re recruiting everybody,” Okonoboh said.

UNLV, Duke, Indiana, Florida and Louisville are charging hard, but this young man is a long way from making a decision or even formulating a final list. He’s locked in on basketball this summer, not recruiting.

“I need to keep working on my touch around the basket,” Okonoboh said. “My positioning can get off. I’m confident facing the basket because I can get by my defender, but I need to work on my back-to-the-basket game.”

Regardless of his offensive progress, he remains a serious rim protector on defense.

LeBron camp buzz

• One camp instructor working with the wings who views things through his NBA lens weighed in on his group. He relayed that ESPN 100 prospect Stanley Johnson (Fullerton, Calif./Mater Dei) went harder with more attention to detail than his peers during drills. That same instructor sought me out later and said he surmised the best wing in the building was UNC-bound Justin Jackson (Tomball, Texas/Homeschool Christian Youth Association).

• When it came time to begin positional work, Syracuse-bound 2014 combo forward Chris McCullough (Bronx, N.Y./Brewster Academy) headed for the wings, not the bigs. From a scouting standpoint, that says a lot. Will McCullough embrace the forward role that he will likely occupy in college and beyond? Georgetown recruit Isaac Copeland (Raleigh, N.C./Brewster Academy), whom we view as a stretch 4-man, also went to the wings and not the big men. Time will tell.

• Rising senior Bonzie Colson Jr. (New Bedford, Mass./St. Andrew’s), the son of a former Division I assistant coach, owns offers from Rhode Island, Northeastern, Florida State, Iowa State, George Washington, Notre Dame and Pittsburgh, while Minnesota and Miami are looking. Colson is a positional tweener, a 6-foot-4 power forward who is trying to expand his game and play some small forward this summer. The question will be his outside shot and ability to defend the position.

• Shooting guard Rashad Vaughn (Minneapolis/Robbinsdale Cooper), the No. 11 prospect in the 2014 class, is who we thought he is. When asked what he likes to do best, Vaughn offered up a succinct yet predictable answer: “Score.” Kentucky and Kansas are basically guaranteed official visits. Baylor, North Carolina, Iowa State, Minnesota and UCLA are mixing it up with him as well.

• ESPN 100 small forward Kameron Chatman (Long Beach, Calif./Long Beach Poly) is one of my favorite basketball players in the 2014 class. He samples from so many areas of strength for his position, including IQ, shot making, passing and defense. Whichever college gets him won’t have him all four years. Michigan, Oregon, Arizona and Connecticut are likely to receive official visits. Arizona also has a little hook with him: Both his father and Arizona assistant coach Damon Stoudamire are Portland natives.

• Rising senior combo guard Khadeem Carrington (Brooklyn, N.Y./Bishop Loughlin) said he feels like Cincinnati and St. John’s would like to have him.

• ESPN 100 power forward Kevon Looney (Milwaukee/Hamilton) will cut his list to five at the end of the month. Duke, Florida, Michigan, Michigan State, Tennessee, Georgetown, Wisconsin and Stanford get a lot of play right now, and the most active head coaches have been John Beilein and Tom Izzo. “(Michigan State assistant) Dane Fife used to call a lot, but my mom told him she wanted to hear from the head coach and now Tom Izzo calls the most.” Rule No. 1 in recruiting: Obey the mother.

Next up: Monday is the final day of the LeBron camp. There will be light skill work in the morning, then tournament play concludes the action in Vegas.
 

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Top 10 remaining NBA free agents

A week into free agency, most of the biggest names on last Monday's ranking of the impact free agents by position already have agreed to new contracts. With the market thinning out, let's take a look at the 10 best players still available and who might be interested in signing them.

Note: (R) - indicates player is restricted free agent


1. Nikola Pekovic, C, Minnesota Timberwolves (R)

Along with the other players in the top three of this list, Pekovic's restricted status seems to have scared away suitors. Now, it's possible no team offers him a deal starting at more than $10 million per year. The two teams left with major cap space are the Cleveland Cavaliers, who might not want to cut into their 2014 cap space, and the Philadelphia 76ers, who are rebuilding and just added Nerlens Noel at center. Pekovic's other hope of a big offer would be the Sacramento Kings using the amnesty provision on John Salmons, which would allow them to clear somewhere in the neighborhood of $12.5 million even after signing Carl Landry -- but would also leave them badly in need of a small forward.

If no big offer materializes, Pekovic has a few choices. He could sign a smaller contract with a team like the Atlanta Hawks or Dallas Mavericks, knowing the Timberwolves would match. Or he could use the threat of playing next season for his $6.1 million qualifying offer as leverage to strike a long-term deal in Minnesota. Taking the qualifying offer would mean less money in the short term but would make Pekovic a more coveted asset as an unrestricted free agent next summer.

Likely destination: Minnesota


2. Brandon Jennings, PG, Milwaukee Bucks (R)

Like Pekovic, Jennings has seen his market dry up. Besides the Bucks, the only team with ample cap space that has not added a starting point guard this summer is the Hawks -- who have their own restricted free agent at the position. So Jennings seems likely to be back in Milwaukee. The question is whether he'll play for the qualifying offer or sign a long-term deal. In March, Jennings told Yahoo! that if he takes the qualifying offer, he definitely will leave next summer. It would represent a major sacrifice in his case because Jennings' qualifying offer is for just $4.3 million.

Likely destination: Milwaukee


3. Jeff Teague, PG, Atlanta Hawks (R)

Teague has the same problem as Jennings and expressed his frustration at not hearing from the Hawks last week. Atlanta was busy filling other needs and still has more cap space to spend. Teague likely will be the Hawks' last move because his cap hold ($6.1 million) is smaller than his likely starting salary on a new contract.

Likely destination: Atlanta


4. Andrew Bynum, C, Philadelphia 76ers

Bynum might be the most interesting free agent left on the market. Depending on how his knees hold up, he could be either the best or worst value in free agency. So the medical evaluation will be an important part of the negotiating process for teams like the Hawks and Mavericks that could be interested in offering him more than midlevel money. At that price, a two-year contract probably strikes the appropriate balance between the upside of Bynum being a bargain and the risk that he doesn't get on the court at all.

Likely destination: Dallas


5. Andrei Kirilenko, SF, Minnesota Timberwolves

Kirilenko might have a tough time making anything close to the $10.2 million player option he turned down to enter free agency. His ideal scenario is Sacramento using the amnesty provision on Salmons and using that cap space on a long-term contract. Kirilenko could also get a lucrative one-year offer from Cleveland, which would allow the Cavaliers to save their cap space for next summer while competing for the playoffs now. Failing that, Kirilenko is likely looking at midlevel offers.

Likely destination: Sacramento


6. Chris Andersen, C, Miami Heat

By all accounts, Birdman will continue to fly for the Heat. Andersen and the team have to figure out whether he'll sign using non-Bird rights (no pun intended) for $1.7 million or command part of Miami's $3.2 million taxpayer midlevel exception. Since Andersen is still being paid by the Denver Nuggets for the last year of a contract they amnestied last summer, he may be willing to take the smaller figure and leave the midlevel for other potential signings.

Likely destination: Miami


7. Monta Ellis, G, Milwaukee Bucks

So far Ellis hasn't generated the kind of interest he hoped to find when he opted out of the final year of his contract, which would have paid $11 million. Our Marc Stein reported Saturday that the Hawks and Nuggets have interest, although Denver would need to move a contract to offer Ellis more than the midlevel exception. Atlanta can fit Ellis more easily, but it's unclear whether he would offer anything the Hawks don't already get from the more efficient Lou Williams.

Likely destination: Atlanta


8. Nate Robinson, PG, Chicago Bulls

Now that most teams have settled their starting point guard spots, they're beginning to look for backups who won't break the bank. That's the case with Robinson, who can provide instant production off the bench despite his small stature. One possibility: a return to the Golden State Warriors, where Robinson played two years ago and Andre Iguodala could help with playmaking duties.

Likely destination: Golden State


9. Gerald Henderson, SG, Charlotte Bobcats (R)

Henderson took his game to a new level after the All-Star break, averaging 18.5 points per game. While that was partially explained by increased playing time, he pushed his per-36 averages from 16.6 points and 2.6 assists before the break to 19.0 points and 3.7 assists thereafter. His true shooting percentage also improved from .514 to .547. The Bobcats may be able to get a good deal to bring back the restricted free agent, who has apparently drawn little outside interest.

Likely destination: Charlotte


No. 10: Brandan Wright, F/C, Dallas Mavericks

With J.J. Hickson agreeing to a three-year deal in Denver, Wright becomes the best option for teams looking for a big man to score off the bench. The high-percentage finisher made better than 60 percent of his two-point attempts during two years in Dallas and can play either frontcourt position, although he's a weak defender at both of them. If the Mavericks sign Bynum, Wright may be looking for a new home.

Likely destination: New Orleans

Next 10: Mo Williams, PG, Utah Jazz; Gary Neal, SG, San Antonio Spurs (R); Corey Brewer, SF, Denver Nuggets; Elton Brand, C, Dallas Mavericks; Samuel Dalembert, C, Milwaukee Bucks; DeJuan Blair; C, San Antonio Spurs; Marreese Speights, C, Cleveland Cavaliers; James Johnson, SF, Sacramento Kings (R); Jermaine O'Neal, C, Phoenix Suns; D.J. Augustin, PG, Indiana Pacers.
 
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