Best Big Threes in modern history
The 2013 Finals is not just a championship. It's a battle of Big Threes, old and new.
Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili for the San Antonio Spurs versus LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh for the Miami Heat.
As the star trios have clashed for supremacy for the past five games, we got to thinking:
What's the best Big Three in modern history?
It's a juicy discussion that stretches throughout NBA history and across generations of fans, but there hasn't been a thorough, comprehensive breakdown of the greatest Big Threes in the sport. In 2010, when James announced he'd take his talents to South Beach, Per Diem founder John Hollinger tried his hand at the best Big Three seasons.
But we want to go bigger than that.
In this edition, we're not looking for just the best Big Three individual seasons. We want to put all their seasons together and see which trios have produced the most value over time as stars.
To do that, we first need to lay out the ground rules.
The methodology
If you don't want to peek under the hood, feel free to skip down to the rankings. But if you want to know "Why I Hate Your Favorite Team's Trio," then pay attention to the following and learn how the sausage got made.
For this study, I considered every potential star trio in the NBA since 1974. Why 1974? That's the first season that the NBA officially tracked turnovers. Using that as a starting point allows us to measure each player using the same rubric. Turnovers are a pretty big deal.
So wait. What qualifies as a star trio?
That's a great question with no simple answer. No two people will have the same definition, but we needed a logical framework to systematically tackle this project. Obviously, all three players have to be pretty good. After all, we're looking for a "Big Three," not the "Best Duo With A Scrub Third Wheel."
So how do we distinguish a scrub from a star? First, we'll need a tool to evaluate production. Luckily, we can grab fellow Per Diem maven Kevin Pelton's wins above replacement value metric (WARP), which is a handy all-in-one measure that estimates a player's worth above the guy on the end of the bench (for the nitty-gritty details, check out Pelton's explainer).
To qualify as a star trio in any given season, each of the three players must post at least a 5.0 WARP for that season. A five-win season is a pretty good mark for a player, which is right around what Dirk Nowitzki posted this season (5.6 WARP).
We can point to the 2000 Lakers as "Exhibit A" for why we need this qualification. No doubt Shaquille O'Neal (25.7 WARP) and Kobe Bryant (11.4 WARP) make the cut as members of a potential Big Three, but Robert Horry was closer to a solid role player than a star worthy of a "Big Three" moniker. And WARP agrees; Horry posted a 4.9 WARP that season, just shy of the Big Three cut. And honestly, we remember the 2000 Lakers as a historic one-two punch, not a Big Three, right?
Furthermore, to qualify for Big Three status, a player has to be in the top three on his own team in production. This seems pretty obvious, but it's a critical factor in some recent cases, such as the latest San Antonio Spurs.
We still label the Duncan-Parker-Ginobili trio as a Big Three, but these days that sticky name is mostly rooted in sentimentality, not reality. At this point in Ginobili's career, it's hard to justify that he's the third-best player on the Spurs considering the work that Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green (your new Finals series 3-point record-holder) have put in on both ends of the floor. Thus, the Duncan-Ginobili-Parker trio does not qualify the past two seasons.
Once we've isolated the Big Threes for each season since 1974, we sum up all of their qualified campaigns together -- both in the regular season and postseason -- to come up with a cumulative WARP figure. That number will measure each trio's longevity and sustained excellence.
One note about the cumulative WARP: We also wanted to reward trios for their postseason success. So we added a 25-WARP bonus for winning the title as a qualified Big Three and 10-WARP bonus if they lost in the Finals. Historically, Big Threes are somewhat defined by their ring count, but we didn't want it to be the be-all, end-all.
To avoid overvaluing Big Threes that just stayed together for a long time and didn't necessarily hit high levels of production, we also incorporated an average WARP in addition to the cumulative WARP score. We blended the two figures together (a straight 50-50 split) to arrive at a Composite WARP score.
Still with me?
Good. Because the rankings are below.
(No doubt you'll have questions about some missing trios. I'll address at the bottom.)
On to the list
10. Shaquille O'Neal, Penny Hardaway, Nick Anderson | Orlando Magic
Composite WARP: 107.1 | Qualified seasons: 3 (1994-96)
Cumulative WARP: 160.7 | Average WARP: 53.6
Championships as Big Three: 0 | Finals exits as Big Three: 1
Believe it or not, this is Shaq's only appearance in the top 10. Throughout his Lakers days, he never really had a consistent third wheel that was good enough to push him and Kobe Bryant into this exclusive club. And in Miami, it was more of the same. Ultimately, Shaq was usually a member of some amazing Big Twos, but not a Big Three.
But Orlando was the lone exception. As three young studs in the league who reached the Finals together, the trio of O'Neal-Hardaway-Anderson was ripe for long-term dominance, but that core was broken up due to Shaq's desire to play under the bright lights of Hollywood.
9. Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, James Worthy | L.A. Lakers
Composite WARP: 126.5 | Qualified seasons: 3 (1985-87)
Cumulative WARP: 189.7 | Average WARP: 63.2
Championships as Big Three: 2 | Finals exits as Big Three: 0
You might have expected this group to rank higher, but the peaks of each individual's career were staggered. At the height of their powers, this Lakers trio could have easily rivaled some of the all-time greats.
But Magic-Kareem-Worthy just barely cracked the top 10 because of Byron Scott's ascension in 1987-88 when he led the Lakers in scoring, which also coincided with Abdul-Jabbar's long-awaited decline from stardom. When the Lakers won the title in 1988 with Pat Riley on the sidelines, the Big Three had already morphed into more of a Big Four.
8. Clyde Drexler, Jerome Kersey, Terry Porter | Portland Trail Blazers
Composite WARP: 135.8 | Qualified seasons: 5 (1987-90, '92)
Cumulative WARP: 226.4 | Average WARP: 48.3
Championships as Big Three: 0 | Finals exits as Big Three: 2
Don't think of this Blazers trio as a Big Three? Think again. Clyde Drexler and two-time All-Star Terry Porter made up one of the best backcourts of the Jordan era, and Jerome Kersey was no slouch either. Most youngsters these days remember Kersey as the washed-up vet on the 1999 Spurs championship squad, but Kersey was a big-time rebounder and defender at small forward for the Blazers and helped push them to two Finals appearances.
If the rise of this Blazers' core hadn't run parallel with the "Bad Boy" Pistons and Jordan's Bulls, we probably would think of them much differently.
7. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh | Miami Heat
Composite WARP: 145.3 | Qualified seasons: 3 (2011-13)
Cumulative WARP: 218.0 | Average WARP: 72.7
Championships as Big Three: 1 | Finals exits as Big Three: 2*
*2012-13 inclusive
We're giving them only the Finals bonus now, but wins in Games 6 and 7 over the Spurs would push the Heatles into the top five. LeBron-Wade-Bosh have been talked about as possibly the best Big Three of all time, but they'll need a few more years (and championships) to enter that conversation.
Right now, they rank second among trios that played just three seasons together (behind No. 5 on this list), but their all-time ranking could hinge on what happens this week. If they rally to win the Finals, they'll be on track to be the best ever. If they lose one of the next two games, it might portend an early breakup. If that's the case, the only superlative that this trio should receive is "most-hyped."
6. Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom | Los Angeles Lakers
Composite WARP: 147.9 | Qualified seasons: 4 (2008-11)
Cumulative WARP: 236.6 | Average WARP: 37.3
Championships as Big Three: 2 | Finals exits as Big Three: 1
Most folks would see Andrew Bynum as the third wheel next to Kobe and Gasol, but Bynum's injury troubles early in his career made Odom the more valuable player during the Lakers' championship runs, according to WARP. Odom's recent demise shouldn't cloud what was an incredible run with the Lakers.
People forget that Odom was the starter for the 2008 Finals team and only moved to the bench to let Bynum start thereafter. With Bynum ailing in the 2009 Finals, Odom's double-doubles and floor spacing were huge against Dwight Howard and the Magic. If Manu Ginobili can be considered a Big Three member while coming off the bench, so should Odom.
5. Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Toni Kukoc | Chicago Bulls
Composite WARP: 154.1 | Qualified seasons: 3 (1996-98)
Cumulative WARP: 231.2 | Average WARP: 77.1
Championships as Big Three: 3 | Finals exits as Big Three: 0
The second-best Big Three of Jordan's Bulls. No need to rehash how dominant the Jordan-Pippen duo was during their reign, but Kukoc was often Jordan's second fiddle, especially in the 1998 Finals when Pippen dealt with back problems and Kukoc led the Bulls with 30 points in Game 5.
Some might argue that Dennis Rodman deserves the third spot over Kukoc here, but it's hard to capture Rodman's defensive presence in numbers, not to mention the fact that he was well past his prime. You could say that the Bulls don't repeat the three-peat in 1996-98 without Rodman, but the same could be true for Kukoc, who was the 1996 Sixth Man of the Year and the team's third-leading scorer during that time. Don't discount "The Waiter."
4. Karl Malone, John Stockton, Jeff Hornacek | Utah Jazz
Composite WARP: 189.2 | Qualified seasons: 6 (1994-99)
Cumulative WARP: 324.4 | Average WARP: 54.1
Championships as Big Three: 0 | Finals exits as Big Three: 2
If this trio played at any point in NBA history other than Michael Jordan's era, they'd probably be known as the model for Duncan-Parker-Ginobili. But of course, the general public tends to be blinded by the shiny rings the Jazz trio unfortunately never received. Their cumulative WARP of 324.4 ranked third in modern history.
A former All-Star and one of the premier shooters of his time, Hornacek probably doesn't garner the recognition that he deserves. The guy was a beacon of efficiency and nearly joined the 50-40-90 club in field goal percentage, free throw percentage and 3-point percentage, respectively, during his entire run with the Jazz. Easily the best Big Three to never win the title.
3. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili | San Antonio Spurs
Composite WARP: 193.0 | Qualified seasons: 7 (2004-09, '11)
Cumulative WARP: 337.8 | Average WARP: 48.3
Championships as Big Three: 2 | Finals exits Big Three: 0
Though this trio has been together for 11 seasons, they only qualified for seven of those because of Ginobili's slight decline as he entered his mid-30s. If you're willing to ignore that Ginobili hasn't been on the court very much the past few seasons and may not be one of the best three players on his own team anymore, you could make the argument that they belong at No. 1 on this list.
Still, this is an amazing run for the Spurs' triumvirate. Regardless of what happens in the next few days, we'll be talking about the Spurs' model for years to come. And it's all because of this trio's unassuming yet unrelenting dominance.
2. Michael Jordan, Scottie Pippen, Horace Grant | Chicago Bulls
Composite WARP: 198.7 | Qualified seasons: 4 (1990-93)
Cumulative WARP score: 318.0 | Average WARP: 79.5
Championships as Big Three: 3 | Finals exits as Big Three: 0
No Big Three has posted a better average WARP than this squad. Though Grant may not have been as productive as Bosh is next to James and Wade, the power forward was certainly worthy of star status and was recognized as such when he was named to the 1994 All-Star squad.
What keeps this trio from nabbing the top spot is that they spent only four seasons together at an elite level before Jordan decided to go to Alabama and play minor league baseball. Had Jordan not gotten the itch to hit the diamond, this may have gone down as the best trio ever. But alas
1. Larry Bird, Kevin McHale, Robert Parish | Boston Celtics
Composite WARP: 226.5 | Qualified seasons: 8 (1982-87, 1990-91)
Cumulative WARP: 402.7 | Average WARP: 50.3
Championships as Big Three: 2 | Finals exits as Big Three: 2
What do you get when three Hall of Famers play together for about a decade during their primes? The top spot on this list. Injuries to Larry Bird and Danny Ainge's rise interrupted this Celtics core's run of excellence in the 1980s. But eight seasons of elite Big Three status? No one else can claim that.
While Bird-McHale-Parish might not have touched the towering heights of the Heat's or the Bulls' trios, no one rivals these three C's in sustained brilliance. And as the league continues to discourage the assembly of superstars on the same team, we may never see anything like this group again.