Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

[Skooby]

2013 NBA playoffs -- Is Kevin Durant doing too much? - ESPN

My bad for the delay.

For OKC, too much Kevin Durant?

Kevin Durant has come close at times, but he can't do it alone. The NBA's brightest individual stars, from Michael Jordan to LeBron James, have learned that lesson in the playoffs. And Durant is learning it, too -- especially since, for the first time since his rookie season in Seattle, he's playing without sidekick Russell Westbrook.

It's not that Durant has been selfish since Westbrook underwent season-ending knee surgery after the Oklahoma City Thunder took a 2-0 lead over the Houston Rockets (a lead that's been trimmed to 3-2 heading into Game 6 in Houston on Friday night). With the possible exception of his charge into a crowd of Rockets defenders late in Game 4, Durant hasn't forced the issue. His usage rate over the past three games is still lower than Carmelo Anthony's during the playoffs as well as Westbrook's in Games 1 and 2.

And it's not that Durant has come up short. As ESPN.com's Marc Stein noted after Game 5, Durant's 115 points during the three games since Westbrook went down are the most Durant has ever scored in a three-game playoff stretch.

The problem is that Durant's teammates aren't giving him enough help.

An historic burden

Without Westbrook, Durant has scored 37.4 percent of the Thunder's points in Games 3-5. That's a result of his go-to role in the offense, nearly always being on the court (he's played 134 out of a possible 144 minutes) and the rest of the team's ineffective scoring. Contrast that mark with Oklahoma City's run to last season's NBA Finals, when Durant scored 28.1 percent of the team's points. (Westbrook chipped in 22.8 percent, so the Thunder's two stars were responsible for more than half the team's scoring.)

Dating back to the ABA-NBA merger, just three teams have gotten more of their playoff scoring from a single player (see chart) -- a pair of runs early in Jordan's career and Dwyane Wade in 2010 just before James and Chris Bosh arrived in Miami to lighten his load.

CARRYING THE TEAM

Player Year Team %Pts
Michael Jordan 1986 CHI .386
Michael Jordan 1988 CHI .383
Dwyane Wade 2010 MIA .379
Penny Hardaway 1997 ORL .368
Michael Jordan 1987 CHI .364
Tracy McGrady 2003 ORL .362
LeBron James 2009 CLE .362
Michael Jordan 1990 CHI .360

Of those three teams, only the 1988 Chicago Bulls won a series. (Chicago lost 4-1 to the Detroit Pistons in the second round.) Jordan's 63-point outburst wasn't enough to help the 1986 Bulls avoid a sweep at the hands of the eventual champion Boston Celtics, while Wade's Heat lost to the Celtics in five games.

No one-man titles

It's possible to win a series, or even two, behind the heroics of a single dominant star. Jordan reached the Eastern Conference finals in 1990 scoring 36 percent of Chicago's points, and James scored 36.2 percent of the Cleveland Cavaliers' points during a 2009 run that ended in the conference finals.

But Jordan is the only player since the merger to lead a team to a title by scoring more than a third of its points. And if you rank all of Jordan's playoffs by the percentage of team points he scored, the Bulls failed to reach the NBA Finals in his five highest-percentage playoff seasons. He never won a championship while scoring more than 34.9 percent of his team's points.

If Oklahoma City still hopes to win a title without Westbrook, more balance is needed. Jordan found such help in Chicago when young starters Horace Grant and Scottie Pippen developed into complementary pieces. James got it by leaving Cleveland for Miami, where he scored 31.1 percent of the Heat's points during last season's championship run. With Westbrook out for the playoffs, the cast around Durant isn't changing. Instead, the Thunder will have to get more from their existing players.

Help needed

Give credit to second-year guard Reggie Jackson. Westbrook's replacement in the starting lineup has been the Thunder's only consistent scorer besides Durant, finishing with at least 14 points in each of the past three games. And other than Serge Ibaka, who has averaged 13.0 points since Westbrook went down, Oklahoma City relies on its post players more for defense than scoring.

That points a finger at the Thunder's wings besides Durant. This series has highlighted how much Oklahoma City lost when it swapped James Harden as a sixth man for Kevin Martin. While Harden leads Houston's offense, Martin has failed to step up as Oklahoma City's second-best healthy scorer. He shot 4-of-14 from 3-point range (28.6 percent) and 5-of-18 inside the arc (27.8 percent) over the past three games and was ineffective enough in Game 4 that coach Scott Brooks didn't even have him on the floor down the stretch.

Thunder guard Thabo Sefolosha has a better excuse for his poor 3-point shooting in the past three games (5-of-16, 31.3 percent) after knocking down 42.6 percent of his 3s during the regular season. After all, Sefolosha has been busy chasing Harden around. But the Rockets have been doubling off Sefolosha, and, other than back-to-back 3-pointers in the third quarter of Game 5, the struggling shooter hasn't made them pay.

Whether Oklahoma City can finish off Houston will probably have more to do with the Rockets' 3-point shooting than the Thunder's offense. (Houston has made 41.9 percent of its 3s in its past two wins after shooting 27.8 percent from downtown in its first three losses.) But the task will get much more challenging if Oklahoma City does escape the Rockets' upset bid.

Against a stingier defense, Durant's scoring surely won't be enough. Just as Jordan's early Chicago teams couldn't get through Detroit and James struggled in Cleveland with Boston and Orlando, Durant will have a tough time scoring so easily against teams like the Memphis Grizzlies, if they advance, or potentially the San Antonio Spurs in the Western Conference finals.

To win those series, Oklahoma City will need to get much more from its other options on offense.

 

[Frump]

AAU event recap - College Basketball Recruiting Blog - ESPN

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/ncbrecruiting/national/post?id=6628

 

[Skooby]

AAU event recap - College Basketball Recruiting Blog - ESPN

B1G commits Mathias, Tate grab headlines in Midwest tourney - ESPN

2016 recruits shine at Super Soph Camp

CERRITOS, Calif. -- Just when I thought there would be a weekend off from scouting, Clay Dade brought his budding Super Soph Jr. All-American Camp to the West Coast. And let’s just say it was easy on the eyes.

With just more than 30 rising sophomore campers in attendance this past weekend, the evaluation process was much more manageable as the coaches guided the players through various drills and games. In the end, it's becoming a common theme out West: The Class of 2016 has a chance to be special.

Here were some of the top performers from the Super Soph Camp.

Best All-Around
Lonzo Ball (Chino Hills, Calif./Chino Hills)
2016, PG, 6-4, 165
Ball continued his outstanding play due to his advanced skill set and high basketball acumen. He keeps the game simple for someone so young, and there are numerous examples to demonstrate that point. He advances the ball quickly in transition, his vision is impeccable and he can score in a variety of ways (runners, pull-ups, and 3-pointers). However, he needs to work on his defensive skills (doesn't bend his knees) going forward as he struggled to guard fellow 2016 point guard Milan Acquaah off the dribble.


Best Intangibles
Leland Green (Redondo Beach, Calif./Redondo Union)
2016, SG, 6-1, 165
There are not many prospects who play with Green’s relentless passion. He impacts the game at both ends due to his energy, athleticism and basketball IQ. He has a knack for getting steals and he is tough to stop in transition. One of the most underrated aspects of his game is his passing, and his jump shot was on target as well.


Diamond in the Rough
Irshad Hunte (San Juan Capistrano, Calif./Valley Christian)
2016, PF/SF, 6-7, 195
At this stage Hunte is truly a prospect who is just scratching the surface of his potential. He is long and bouncy and runs effortlessly in transition. It's early, but other than a couple of elbow jump shots and athletic finishes in transition, his offensive game is quite raw. Defensively, he displayed excellent timing as he had a number of impressive blocks. Overall, he has the physical intangibles to be a good one someday.


Best Athlete
JJ Rhymes (Phoenix/Shadow Mountain)
2016, SF, 6-3, 170
The lanky left-hander was arguably the most explosive prospect at the camp -- and that is saying a lot considering the talent pool at this event. Rhymes is a glue-type player who affects the game with his trampoline-like bounce and energy. He slashes to the rim and possesses excellent body control while finishing. It's too early to determine a position for the next level, but his jump shot needs to get more consistent either way.


Strongest Burst
Milan Acquaah (Pasadena, Calif./LaSalle)
2016, PG, 6-0, 160
Acquaah is a definite beast at this level due to his strong physique, tight handle and explosive nature. He has a quick burst off the dribble and can finish well with either hand in the lane. His jump shot is playable and has improved since the high school season, but it still needs refining and he doesn't always get his legs into his shot.


Post With Skill
MJ Cage (Santa Ana, Calif./Mater Dei)
2016, PF/C, 6-8, 200
Cage apparently broke his nose on Saturday and as a result didn't suit up on the final day of the camp. Nonetheless, he demonstrated he has the most polished offensive game out of all the bigs who attended. His footwork has improved and he can convert shots with either hand in the paint, plus he has a soft shooting touch out to 17 feet. He needs to be more assertive and play through contact better, but overall his progress has been good.


Biggest Surprises
Kenny Davis (Compton, Calif./Centennial)
2016, PG, 6-3, 135
Davis has a prototypical frame with very long arms. He truly fits the term "prospect" as he is nowhere close to being a finished product right now, but his game is smooth and pretty efficient considering his youth. He can run a team and nail pull-up jump shots and his quickness is deceptive.

Chancellor Hunter (Los Angeles/King Drew)
2016, CG, 6-2, 155
Hunter came into the event with very little notoriety, but that will change if he continues to grow as a player. He has an ideal Division I frame with long arms and overall great length. The left-hander has a slick handle and is quite quick off the dribble. He can knock down 3s as well, but the overall growth of his game will depend on how much he understands managing an offense and getting others involved.


Best Shooter
Michael Bibby Jr. (Phoenix/Shadow Mountain)
2016, PG, 5-11, 155
It's almost frightening how much Michael Jr. plays like his father, who just recently retired from the NBA. The younger Bibby has the same release on his shot, similar crafty handle and his skill set is not far behind. His quickness isn't ideal yet, but he does a nice job of changing speeds and is one of the few young guards who understands the pick-and-roll.


Best Slashers
Sayeed Pridgett (Oakland/El Cerrito)
2016, SG, 6-4, 180
It could be argued that Pridgett was one of the top five players at the camp. The relentless scoring guard affects the game in many ways due to his energy. He loves to attack off the dribble and is one of the few players who displayed the use of the jump stop instead of just bullying his way through contact. His 3-point shot was solid and he can score at all three levels. He pounds it too much against pressure and hunts shots, but that should improve with coaching and experience.

Brandon Cyrus (San Diego/Torrey Pines)
2016, SG, 6-3, 175
A term that immediately comes to mind regarding Cyrus is "game-changer." He is dynamic in the open court due to his explosiveness and assertiveness -- he can snatch rebounds, fill the lane in transition and has a knack for getting to the rim. He also exhibited a much-improved jump shot.


Biggest Sleepers
Josh Lavergne (Los Angeles/Loyola)
2016, PF, 6-6, 170
Lavergne has sleeper written all over him. He has a prototypical basketball frame with long arms and big feet. He is a left-hander who possesses solid ball skills and exhibited an improved face-up game. His 3-point shot is playable and he can pass as well, but he is nowhere near the type of player he can become with hard work and focus.

Darrian Youngblood (Gardena, Calif./Serra)
2016, SG/SF, 6-3, 160
Youngblood is a wiry perimeter prospect who has many of the intangibles scouts look for in a prospect. He is bouncy, can slash to the rim and can snag rebounds in traffic. His ball skills are quite raw and his jump shot needs many more reps, but he has definite upside.


Most Improved
Jayce Johnson (Santa Ana, Calif./Mater Dei)
2016, C, 6-9, 215
For most young big men it takes time to evolve into a player, and Johnson is just starting the process. He is growing at an alarming rate and thus is still getting used to his lengthy frame. However, his progress has been excellent. He doesn't have much lift yet, but he pursues rebounds, finishes with either hand and plays with a physicality rarely seen in young bigs.


Shooters With Size
Daron Henson (Mission Hills, Calif./Alemany)
2016, PF, 6-7, 185
Henson's game has elevated from potential to production. During the regular season he wasn't very assertive and floated around the perimeter displaying his smooth shooting touch. However, this weekend he hit the boards hard at both ends and got numerous put-backs to go along with his improved offensive game.

Tim Harrison (El Cajon, Calif./Christian)
2016, SF, 6-6, 175
Harrison is a rangy wing with a nice stroke out to 20 feet. He can face-up his defender and his first step is pretty solid. His two-dribble pull-up in the mid-range area is quite effective as well. In addition, he can fill the lane in transition and deliver some solid passes. His ball skills (ball-handling against pressure) and face-up skills (triple-threat game) need improvement, but overall he is an impressive prospect.

Super Soph Camp Notes

• Ian Carter (Gardena, Calif./Serra), a 6-6 wing, has improved his all-around game, but his shot selection needs improvement. The ball often died in his hands with him taking a difficult jump shot early in the possession.

• Chris Barnes (Compton, Calif./Compton) , a 6-3 athletic slasher, has a ton of upside due to his frame, athleticism and ability to get buckets. However, he needs to implement some fundamentals (a jump stop, for example) to raise his game. There were times in some of the games where he forced it off the dribble, leading to unnecessary turnovers.

• Bryce Fisher (Chandler, Ariz./Perry), a 6-foot point guard, has a terrific burst off the dribble and his shot looks solid. However, being so young he'll need to do a better job of understanding time and score when making plays down the stretch.

• Reid Johnson (San Diego/Cathedral Catholic), a 6-foot-5 wing, exhibited a high IQ for the game due to his impressive passing ability. However, he needs to improve his jump shot (slow release) going forward.

 

[Skooby]

Lyles returns, Looney impresses in Indy

FORT WAYNE, Ind. -- The Spiece Bill Hensley Memorial Run-N-Slam is widely considered to be the best AAU event in the Midwest. This year's event held true to form, thanks to the efforts of recruits like Trey Lyles, Indiana recruit James Blackmon Jr. and Kevon Looney. The three stars backed up their ESPN 60 status whenever they took the floor but several others also made a case to be garner some ink.

Here’s a look at some of the best talent the Midwest had to offer this past weekend.

Best Comeback
Trey Lyles (Indianapolis/Arsenal Tech)
2014, PF, 6-9, 230
Travel Team: Spiece Indy Heat
Lyles had been out of action since injuring his knee in March, but his return and subsequent performance showed why he is viewed as one of the top 10 talents in the Class of 2014. He looked a bit rusty at times, but was still rebounding, scoring and blocking shots at a high rate. The highly coveted power forward has a solid body, scores fairly well on the low block and was exceptional when facing out to 20 feet.

Best Player
Jae'Sean Tate (Pickerington, Ohio./Pickerington Central)
2014, WF, 6-4, 205 pounds
Travel Team: All Ohio Red
Committed to Ohio State
Tate is an ultra-athletic player with a nonstop motor. His game isn’t always pretty but it sure is very effective. Tate was an unstoppable force all weekend, making plays all over the court and was especially effective with his work in the paint. Tate has expanded his game and is much more productive on the perimeter. He has the ability to be an immediate contributor at Ohio State when he touches down in Columbus in 18 months.

Best Point Guard
Chris Chiozza (Memphis/White Station)
2014, PG, 5-10, 150
Travel Team: Team Thad
Chiozza has been one of the hottest players in recruiting this spring. He is a pure point guard who is also a very efficient scorer and one of the best passers in the 2014 class. He led Team Thad to the 17-U championship game where it finally fell to All-Ohio Red. Chiozza’s recent play has elevated him into consideration for one of the top 10 PGs in his class.

Most Skilled Big Man
Kevon Looney (Milwaukee/Hamilton)
2014, PF, 6-8, 200
Travel Team: Milwaukee Running Rebels
Looney is a skilled 4-man who can be a dominant force at the high school level. His size and length allow him to be very effective on the low block and he is a very solid shooter from just inside the 3-point line. When he steps away from the basket, he is a solid ballhandler who can get to the cup and finish.

Best Shooters
Dakota Mathias (Elida, Ohio/Elida)
2014, SG, 6-4, 190
Travel Team: Northwest Ohio Basketball Club
Committed to Purdue
Mathias has made a name for himself as a shooter, but he can pretty much do anything needed on the court. He is able to make plays for himself and others when running the point and has a quick trigger and range out to 25 feet playing off the ball. The promising talent committed to Purdue during the event, making Mr. Matt Painter a very happy man Sunday night.

Riley Norris (Albertville, Ala./Albertville)
2014, SF, 6-5, 195
Travel Team: Team Thad
Norris is a big-time shot-maker with range stretching out to 25 feet. He is best with his feet set but he can put the ball on the floor and get to the basket on occasion. Norris is getting some SEC interest, but he is good enough to attract interest from any high-major schools interested in a shooter. This kid is one of the best in the business and he showed it in Fort Wayne.

James Blackmon Jr. (Fort Wayne, Ind./Bishop Luers)
2014, SG, 6-3, 190
Travel Team: Spiece Indy Heat
Committed to Indiana
Blackmon Jr. may be the best shooter in the country, especially when he is in rhythm and really gets it going. The thing that makes the 6-foot-3 guard such a weapon is that he can score in bunches and can single-handedly carry a team when he gets. I bet Tom Crean can't wait to see Blackmon Jr. in a Hoosier uniform.

Best Young Scoring PG
Cassius Winston (Detroit/Jesuit)
2016, PG, 5-10, 170
Travel Team: The Family
Winston is a superstar in the making. The shifty guard really knows how to score and is also a good passer with a strong understanding of when to look for his own shot or to create for others. He has an old school feel to his game, utilizing ball fakes to frustrate defenders.

Best Young PG
Xavier Simpson (Lima, Ohio/Central Catholic)
2016, PG, 5-9, 160
Travel Team: King James Shooting Stars
This dynamo floor general is a coach’s dream. Simpson is an extension of the coach on the floor; a tough and an outstanding competitor. He has the ability to call his own card on offense but prefers to create for others. His recruiting stock will rise as his physical stature improves.

Best Young Scorer
Jarron Cumberland (Wilmington, Ohio/Wilmington)
2016, SG, 6-3, 190
Travel Team: Ohio Basketball Club
Some players just have a knack for putting the ball in the basket -- count Cumberland among that bunch. He poured in 33 points in a losing effort against King James Shooting Stars during bracket play. Cumberland scored from all over the floor, drilling 7 long-range bombs as he proved to be virtually unguardable on the floor. Cumberland already boasts a very strong body and is currently being monitored by many of the top programs in the Midwest.

Notes

Indiana Elite clinched the 15U championship with a 61-52 defeat of Ohio's King James Shooting Stars. 2016 sophomore wing Tucker Blackwell (Bloomington, Ind./South) led Indy Elite with 20 points, combo guard D.J. Wilkins (Merrillville, Ind./Merrillville) was big contributing 15 and wing Tremmell Murphy (Griffith, Ind./Griffith) chipped in 13. King James received 15 points from forward Derrick Daniels (Dayton, Ohio/Thurgood Marshall) and 10 from guard Darnell Hoskins Jr. (Dayton, Ohio/Thurgood Marshall).

The Indiana Elite program also captured the 16U title in over a tough Illinois Lockdown squad. 2015 wing Everett Duncan (Evansville, Ind./Harrison) canned five treys to finish with 23 points, while 2015 combo guard Jalen Coleman (Indianapolis/Cathedral) played a solid game and tacked on 20 points. Lockdown had three players finish in double figures as 2015 SG Joe Mooney (Niles, Ill./Notre Dame College Prep) netted 17, 2015 PF Matt Rafferty (Hinsdale, Ill./Central) added 16 and 2015 PG Mark Falotico (Arlington Heights, Ill./St. Viator) added 14.

The 17U Division had many of the top teams in the country in attendance. The All-Ohio Red squad won the "big boys" division with a 77-58 victory over Memphis Team Thad. All-Ohio was powered by Javon Bess (Gahanna, Ohio/Lincoln) with 17 points, 2014 wing Evan Bailey (Massillon, Ohio/Jackson) with 12, Tate (11 points) and 6-4 wing Eric James (Westerville, Ohio/Central) added 10. Chiozza led Team Thad with 19 while Norris put in 10.

 

[Joe Sixpack]

Skoob can I get that KC Joyner article on AD rushing for 2,500 yds?

 

[Skooby]

Skoob can I get that KC Joyner article on AD rushing for 2,500 yds?

Can Peterson reach 2,500?

The offseason is always a time of optimism, but sometimes that positive mindset crosses over the line into the realm of hyperbole.

This happened a few years ago when Chris Johnson, fresh off a 2,000-yard campaign in 2009, said he could reach the 2,500-yard mark in 2010. Dez Bryant echoed that sentiment when he claimed a 2,000-yard receiving season was well within his grasp.

It might seem at first glance that Adrian Peterson's recent comments stating he was setting the bar at 2,500 yards rushing in 2013 would fall into that same hyperbolic category.

In the history of the NFL, there have been only six running backs outside of Peterson who tallied 2,000 or more yards in a season. None of these backs did it twice and none even made it back to the 1,500-yard mark in the following season. In fact, these backs on average saw a decline of 968 yards from their 2,000-yard campaigns.

2,000-yard rushers

Running back Season 2K season total Rush yards in next season Variance
Eric dikkerson 1984 2,105 1234 871
Jamal Lewis 2003 2,066 1006 1060
Barry Sanders 1997 2,053 1491 562
Terrell Davis 1998 2,008 211 1797
Chris Johnson 2009 2,006 1364 642
O.J. Simpson 1973 2,003 1125 878
Total -- 12,241 6,431 5,810

If we use this historical barometer as an indictor, Peterson has zero chance at reaching his goal and is thus talking a bigger game than he will deliver.

Except this is a case where history might not repeat itself.

When Peterson's chances are viewed through a metric perspective, it becomes clear All Day could soon see his nickname changed to All Day 2.5K.

Here are three metric paths he could follow to reach that total.

Path No. 1 -- The tale of two seasons

According to ESPN Stats & Information, during the first half of the 2012 season (Weeks 1-8), Peterson gained 96.88 yards per game. That total led the league but pro-rates to only 1,550 yards over the course of a 16-game season, a mark that falls well short of the 2,500-yard goal.

Over the second half of the season (Weeks 9-17, with the Vikings having a bye in Week 11), Peterson averaged 165.25 yards per game, which pro-rates to 2,644 yards in a 16-game stretch.

This shows 2012 was a tale of two seasons for Peterson, as he was very good during the early stages of his comeback but was positively unstoppable once he got his footing back. Simply playing a complete slate of games at full strength is a good start to getting him to 2,500 yards.

Path No. 2 -- Increased workload

Peterson ranked second in the league in carries last year (348) but during the second half of the season he averaged 24.62 rushes per game. If he kept that workload level up for a 16-game stretch, Peterson would post 394 rush attempts. Assuming he once again gains 6.0 yards per carry (as he did last season), that would equal 2,364 yards, or a level that puts him within range of 2.5K. If the Vikings merely gave him 1-2 more carries per contest on top of that, Peterson would reach his goal.

Path No. 3 -- The GBR and GBYPA case

The above cases illustrate how Peterson can reach 2,500 yards by keeping up his second half production level, but what if he falls short of that incredibly high pace over a 16-game stretch? Can he still reach his goal?

The good blocking rate (GBR) and good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metrics say he can.

Let's start with GBYPA, which is a metric that gauges how productive a ballcarrier is when given good blocking (which is very roughly defined as when the offense doesn't allow the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt).

During the first half of the year, Peterson tallied a 9.0 GBYPA, which is an extremely good mark in this category but isn't earth-shattering. In the second half, Peterson racked up an insanely high 13.3 GBYPA.

Rather than assuming he will keep up the second half pace for a 16-game stretch, let's assume he will reach a midpoint between his first and second half paces and use his season-ending 11.1 GBYPA total as the pace he can replicate.

Now let's factor in how often Peterson should receive good blocking. The Vikings managed to give him good blocking on only 40.3 percent of his rush attempts last year, a level that placed Peterson 35th out of 42 backs with at least 100 total rush attempts.

The odd part about this is the Vikings gave Peterson good blocking on 47.2 percent of his rushes in the first half of the year and yet saw that number drop to 35.0 percent over the second half.

Part of the reason teams were able to lower Peterson's second half GBR stems from Minnesota's complete lack of ability to threaten teams with vertical passes, especially after Percy Harvin's injury. ESPN Stats & Information had Christian Ponder ranked dead last in the league in both vertical yards per attempt (8.66) and air yards per attempt (6.43). This was a potential weakness headed into this 2012 season, as once it became apparent the Vikings had absolutely no way to beat a defense deep, opposing teams turned their entire gameplan toward stopping Peterson. (Note: vertical passes are aerials thrown 11 or more yards. Air yards per attempt measures how far downfield the average pass was thrown.)

That could very well change in 2013, as the Vikings acquired Greg Jennings via free agency and selected former Tennessee Volunteers speedster Cordarrelle Patterson in the 2013 NFL draft. Jennings has a solid history of downfield production and will likely have a strong impact on this offense and Patterson had one of the best sets of physical attributes among the top wide receivers in this draft class. These additions make it very likely the Purple and Gold will be able to do a lot more to keep defenses honest against Peterson.

If that honesty leads to Peterson getting a 45.0 percent GBR for the year on a volume of 390 carries and he averages 11.1 yards on those attempts, that gives him 1,948 yards on those rushes. If he gains 2.7 yards on plays with bad blocking (his 2012 pace in that category), he will get 579 yards. Put the two together and it equals 2,527 yards, or just over his stated goal.

This shows Peterson should be able to win the battle against opposing defenses in his pursuit of this achievement, but getting there will likely require him one final fight.

Could Peterson possibly convince the Vikings coaches to increase his workload? There's certainly a case to be made that Peterson even getting near such lofty totals doesn't truly serve the interest of Minnesota's offense, so Peterson will need to channel his inner Bum Phillips and convince the Vikings playcalling brain trust that their best chance to get back to the playoffs is by dancing with who brung them. That might be the biggest hurdle of all.

 

[Jplaya2023]

2013 NBA playoffs -- Which Western Conference team would give the Miami Heat the most trouble? - ESPN

 

[LandryFieldsDad]

2013 NBA playoffs -- Which Western Conference team would give the Miami Heat the most trouble? - ESPN

The Miami Heat are the defending champs and the heavy favorites to win the Eastern Conference for the third straight year. That doesn't guarantee they'll successfully run the gauntlet of the Chicago Bulls and the New York Knicks-Indiana Pacers series survivor, but it does mean that it's OK to wonder who the Heat would see in the Finals, and how they would fare.

So the question becomes, "Which Western Conference team should Miami fear most?"

On Dan Le Batard's Miami radio show, he often professes a fear of the Memphis Grizzlies, whose size could be a major concern for the Heat. Others might cite the San Antonio Spurs as Heat killers. It may even be fashionable to select Oklahoma City, as it claims the best player of any theoretical opponent. With apologies to the Golden State Warriors, they trail on this list because Stephen Curry has twice injured his ankle in these playoffs, making their case tenuous.

Here is how I think we should rank the four West contenders for Miami's throne, and why:

1. San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs boast ball movement and 3-point shooting reminiscent of a Dallas Mavericks team that brought LeBron James and the Heat national shame in 2011.

Let's see what factors might come into play if we get a Spurs-Heat NBA Finals:


The Spurs are big if they want to be
Many tout the size of the Grizzlies, but are they "bigger" than San Antonio? Sure, Memphis has Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph, but the Spurs' frontcourt of Tim Duncan, Tiago Splitter and Kawhi Leonard is huge. The dual center combo of Duncan and Splitter score with equal facility to the Grizzlies' Gasol/Z-Bo combo.

Though the Spurs don't nab as many offensive rebounds as the Grizzlies, that's more a function of how their offense runs. That difference actually brings us to the next advantage.

The Spurs can shoot the 3
The Spurs move the ball well with their patented motion weak offense and with their series of flex cuts to keep defenses off balance. This creates space, allowing their 3-point shooters to kill teams from distance. San Antonio was the fourth-most accurate team from 3-point range this season, making 37.6 percent of their tries while launching the seventh-most attempts in the league at 21.5. Their proficiency from deep does much to make San Antonio the third most efficient scoring team at a 56.8 percent true shooting mark.

For Miami, 3-point defense has been and still is a weakness. The Heat gave up the sixth-most 3-point attempts this season (pace adjusted). Miami coach Erik Spoelstra's aggressive defensive style has plenty of positive elements, but it allows opposing shooters to often get room and rhythm.

The Spurs' aforementioned weak offensive rebounding stats are connected to how they spread the floor with shooters -- when the Spurs want to go smaller and feature shooting, Matt Bonner and Leonard can each play the stretch-4 role.

The Spurs can defend the 3
Not only do the Spurs shoot the 3 well, they also ably defend it, which really matters against a Miami team that thrives on 3-point shooting. The Heat ranked second in 3-point accuracy this season and also shot more from distance than San Antonio.

Fortunately for the Spurs, in the event of this matchup, they give up the fifth-fewest 3-pointers (pace adjusted). San Antonio communicates wonderfully on the perimeter and features long players who doggedly contest shots.

But can they guard LeBron?
Nobody is properly equipped to guard the reigning MVP, but San Antonio is perhaps best prepared among remaining Western Conference teams. After a 2011-12 season of slipping defense, the Spurs brought Duncan closer to the paint and promptly improved to third in defensive efficiency.

San Antonio has perhaps the prototypical James defender in Leonard. The Spurs' second-year wing has giant hands and a longer wingspan than James. Those large hands are also quick, which is how Leonard racked up 1.7 steals per game in only 31 minutes per game.

He certainly won't stop LeBron; nobody can. But Leonard is a safe bet to make life difficult for James in a one-on-one matchup.

2. Memphis Grizzlies
Memphis is the hot pick in the West after dismissing the Los Angeles Clippers and outplaying the Thunder for most of three games. The Grizzlies are also, as noted, a threat to the Heat, with a winning record versus Miami since LeBron arrived.

So how do they shape up if these teams meet in the Finals?


Memphis is BIG
Like San Antonio, the Grizzlies are large. Unlike San Antonio, they rarely alter that large starting lineup.

Gasol is massive and Randolph plays big as well -- and he has progressed enough defensively to where Memphis can feature him amid an elite defense. That kind of size is considered one of the vulnerabilities for Miami.

Memphis boasts an advantage on the offensive boards that could hurt Miami in a potential matchup. The Grizzlies are second in offensive rebound rate and the Heat are 26th.

Memphis plays great D
The Grizzlies have perhaps the best defense in basketball. They were No. 2 in defensive efficiency against a tougher schedule than the No. 1 Indiana Pacers faced.

Tony Allen leads a viscous perimeter defense that manages to force turnovers while also ceding few open 3-pointers (Memphis allows the third-fewest made 3s in basketball). Down low, Memphis has the NBA's defensive player of the year in Gasol. If you treat yourself to watching Gasol off the ball, you'll see he uses his arms like antennae -- bumping and grazing opponents, just to get a sense of where they are and where they'll be. Not only does he make great decisions on defense, but he's also the Grizzlies' conductor, shouting out instructions and pointing guys in the right direction.

Memphis lacks scoring punch
Memphis should absolutely be considered a title contender, but I see it as a secondary Heat threat. Its one, big flaw is that this team doesn't score a whole lot.

Unlike San Antonio, Memphis shoots poorly from outside. And despite all that offensive rebounding, the Grizzlies ranked only 18th in offensive efficiency this season. They suffer from poor spacing and the lack of a consistent perimeter scorer. Among Western Conference teams left in the playoffs, they're the weakest in this department.

3. Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder fans would love to see a rematch of the 2012 Finals, a hope that might have been dashed when Russell Westbrook suffered a season-ending knee injury. But OKC is still alive and dangerous.


OKC has KD
I might as well have listed "Kevin Durant" as the third team. With Westbrook out, it's wholly Durant's show to run.

That presents many problems for Oklahoma City, but we shouldn't be too quick to count it out. A core of Durant, Serge Ibaka and Kevin Martin can still score formidably when things are clicking. And some of what the Thunder lost with Westbrook can be compensated for with heavier Durant minutes. If they can escape the West, they would be a threat to outscore anyone.

It's largely forgotten, but James was a largely ineffective defender against Durant in the 2012 Finals. This is no knock on James, who's a fantastic defender against everybody else. But Durant happens to be a gigantic freak of a scoring machine, impervious to what might work on Carmelo Anthony or Derrick Rose. Durant finished with a Finals average of 30.6 points on 54.8 percent shooting (39.4 percent from 3-point range).

OKC plays D, too
Noticing a trend here?

The Thunder have made strides this year, tying San Antonio for third in defensive efficiency. Losing Westbrook hurts their defensive depth, but he was hardly OKC's most essential performer on that end. Westbrook had his moments of defensive brilliance, but he also struggled in transition, where defensive ace Thabo Sefolosha was oft liable to point him in the right direction.

The Thunder are still a stingy unit, albeit one that gives up a few too many 3s to be a true Heat cooler.

4. Golden State Warriors
The Warriors are a tough call because of the health of Curry, which is a huge question mark.


Golden State can shoot, but ...
The Warriors were the most accurate 3-point shooting team this season, and they may have grown more potent since David Lee got injured. Now, Golden State goes smaller with increasing frequency, creating more space and more 3-point opportunities. Living in Oakland, Calif., I get to watch them play regularly, and I know how big an offensive roll they can generate.

But with Curry hobbled by yet another ankle injury and the Warriors merely an average defensive team which has struggled against teams that can shoot the 3, things don't look good.

It would take a near-miracle for Golden State to advance to the Finals, so it's mostly listed here for posterity.

The future is bright for the Warriors, but it's too soon to talk about them beating Miami.

 

[Jplaya2023]

2013 NBA playoffs: How conference semifinals series are shaping up - ESPN

 

[Skooby]

2013 NBA playoffs: How conference semifinals series are shaping up - ESPN

Biggest tossup in NBA playoffs?

The first conference semifinal series to go four games, Spurs-Warriors, remains deadlocked, but this past weekend offered some additional clarity on which teams might square off in the conference finals starting next week. Let's take a look at all four series, ranking them from "most certain" to "most wide-open."


1. Miami Heat-Chicago Bulls (Miami leads 2-1)

Since the Bulls stole Game 1 on the road, Miami has reclaimed control of the series with consecutive wins. A Heat victory Monday night at the United Center would all but doom short-handed Chicago. Already, Miami is overwhelming favorite. According to WhoWins.com, higher-seeded teams leading 2-1 go on to win the series nearly 90 percent of the time. And regular-season dominance makes the Heat even more likely to win when playing out the series on paper using Log5 projections -- 93.2 percent of the time.

The Bulls' best hope of getting back in the series is cutting out the parade to the free throw line that has seen Miami attempt 57 foul shots in the past two wins. While Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau complained after Game 3 that his team is "not going to get calls," the Bulls' strategy of fouling intentionally to prevent Heat transition opportunities is helping put the team in the bonus. And the flagrant and technical fouls from the past two games have done nothing to help Chicago's cause.

Since the Bulls were competitive Friday night, they could certainly even the series tonight and maybe eventually take it the distance. Still, it's hard to imagine Chicago winning three of the next four games, including at least one win in Miami, which would be necessary to pull the historic upset.


2. Memphis Grizzlies-Oklahoma City Thunder (Memphis leads 2-1)

Historically, according to WhoWins.com, lower-seeded teams with a 2-1 lead go on to win the series a little more than two-thirds of the time (68.8 percent, to be exact). There are a few reasons to believe that of the two teams currently in that position (the Indiana Pacers are the other), the Grizzlies are more likely to complete the "upset." First off, a Memphis win wouldn't really be an upset. Despite not having home-court advantage, the Grizzlies were favored entering the series because of Russell Westbrook's injury and their impressive 4-2 win over the Los Angeles Clippers in the opening round. In that sense, the series has played to form thus far.

If anything, Memphis seems to have more and better options right now, allowing the Grizzlies to control the second half of the past two wins. If not for a late stumble in Game 1, Memphis could be going for a sweep at this point.

The best argument for Oklahoma City remains simply "Kevin Durant." That the Thunder were competitive on the road with Durant scoring a relatively quiet 25 points in Game 3 -- his lowest scoring output since Westbrook's injury -- offers hope going into Monday night's matchup.


3. Golden State Warriors-San Antonio Spurs (tied 2-2)

Given that this series is tied 2-2 and two of the four games have gone into overtime, it certainly seems even. Nonetheless, home-court advantage gives the Spurs the edge in the best-of-three miniseries this has become. The Log5 method says San Antonio is favored to win nearly 80 percent of the time. Even if we assume the two teams are of equal ability, the Spurs would win 55.4 percent of series solely because of home court.

The Warriors should be reasonably confident about their ability to win in San Antonio after taking Game 2 and leading much of Game 1 before a late Spurs comeback. After an apparent breakout performance in Game 3, the San Antonio offense disappeared again Sunday. The Spurs shot just 35.5 percent from the field, nearly the team's worst performance of the season (San Antonio shot 35.4 percent twice during the regular season).

With Tony Parker limited by a bruised calf, and Tim Duncan neutralized by Andrew Bogut (Sunday's 7-of-22 shooting effort dropped Duncan's shooting percentage in this series to 41.0 percent), Manu Ginobili was Gregg Popovich's only efficient offensive option. The issue came to a head in overtime, when the Spurs scored three points in five minutes. To reclaim control of this series, San Antonio will have to find answers or hope a healthier Parker is more productive.


4. Indiana Pacers-New York Knicks (Indiana leads 2-1)

That leaves Pacers-Knicks as the most uncertain of the series. While Indiana regained the upper hand with Saturday's home win, whichever team wins Tuesday's Game 4 will be favored to advance to the Eastern Conference finals. That's how close this matchup remains.

The Pacers' game plan for winning a defensive struggle in Game 3 was much the same as their Game 1 win at Madison Square Garden. Indiana shut down the potent New York offense with ferocious paint defense led by center Roy Hibbert and prevented the Knicks from getting the open 3-point looks they love. The effort made Game 2 -- when New York dominated behind a 30-2 run in the second half -- all the more difficult to understand.

We know Indiana isn't going to win this series with offense, so if the Knicks can figure out a way to solve the riddle of Hibbert and Carmelo Anthony stopper Paul George, they can certainly win on the road. Again, both teams will have an extended period to make adjustments leading up to Tuesday's crucial game.

 

[trick]

NBA - Chris Broussard ranks all the NBA coaching options - ESPN

Thanks @Skooby

 

[Skooby]

NBA - Chris Broussard ranks all the NBA coaching options - ESPN

Thanks @Skooby

Ranking NBA coaching destinations

In terms of coaching movement, this could be one of the most volatile offseasons in league history. Five or six jobs are already open, depending on how you view interim coach Lindsey Hunter's status with the Phoenix Suns, and another five could open up over the next few weeks.

And not all the jobs are bad. There are some real opportunities for a solid coach to have success next season. This prompted me to ask one of the league's top assistant coaches -- who should be in line for a head-coaching job over the next few years -- to rank the current job openings along with the potential openings from best to worst. This should give you some insight as to how people within the league, including guys who could be interviewing with these teams, view the openings and potential openings.

1. Brooklyn Nets

"The Nets have a lot of stuff you want. The owner [Mikhail Prokhorov] has money and he's willing to spend, so you're not worried about shallow pockets. That's huge. The market you're in is huge. You'll always be able to attract free agents because of the market you're in.

"This team is already positioned to be good. They got talent -- guys that can play. The next guy that comes in can really have success. All they need is time. When LeBron James and those guys put their team together in Miami, they didn't win it their first year. It takes time. Very rarely does it happen as quickly as it did in Boston [in 2008]. Billy King does a great job, and he's committed to winning. He does a nice job of having his hands on the players, but at the same time, he gets out of way of the coach and lets him coach. Plus, they've got great facilities. And they're in the East!"


2. Los Angeles Clippers

"You've got a superstar [Chris Paul]; that's the first thing. He gives you great leadership on the court. That helps you as a coach. It makes you look like a smart guy. That's a security blanket.

"The second thing is the market. A great market and a superstar -- put those two together and you'll always be able to attract players. Players are going to want to come to play with Paul in L.A. They also have great facilities. L.A. is a hub for summer ball. As a coach with that team, if you don't really get in the way, you're going to have a chance to win. Now, the owner [Donald Sterling] makes it a little bit scary. Plus, their lack of tradition could worry you. But they're headed in the right direction. Anytime you get to coach a superstar in his prime is a great opportunity. A new coach can get his career off to a great start and a [retread coach] can resurrect his career with this job."


3. Atlanta Hawks

"Danny Ferry has done it before. He's put together a championship-caliber team [in Cleveland], so you know he knows how to do it. He doesn't have a superstar, but he does have a city that a lot of players would like playing in. He'll make sure everything there is done first-class, and free agents will like that. With the money they have available in free agency, the city and the flexibility of the roster, he'll be able to execute his plan. Like King, Ferry also has a nice blend of being involved and helping a coach but also letting that guy coach the team. That will be a good spot for a new coach."


4. Minnesota Timberwolves

"Low expectations. That's a huge deal because they were going to be a good team this year. They got decimated by injuries. They definitely would have made the playoffs; they would have been in the mix for one of those sixth, seventh or eighth seeds. They have a bunch of guys that fit that market. If they get everybody healthy, that team's ready to win. They've taken their beatings. Now it's time for them to get some of the value out of those beatings.

"Nobody's going to be talking about them in the offseason. Ricky Rubio and Alexey Shved are good players. If they re-sign [Nikola] Pekovic, they have a chance to be good. I like [new president of basketball operations] Flip Saunders. He's a plus for what they're doing. The owner Glen Taylor is also a good man. He's going to let Flip work. The bad part is they're in the West, which always makes it tough."


5. Toronto Raptors

"They have some pieces and they're already in their process, so you [don't have] to start from the beginning. A lot of the work there has already been done. And it's another great city. Guys love Toronto. If guys are going to be in a cold city, Toronto's one they don't mind being in.

"Again, they're in the East. You're not taking a big step to overtake Milwaukee. The variance from the seventh seed down to No. 11 is not big. It's not a giant step to overtake those teams. So as a coach, your ego alone kicks in to say, 'With just a little bit of work, we can get there.' They just have to stay healthy."


6. Philadelphia 76ers

"That's a weird one because of the Andrew Bynum situation. I probably would bring Bynum back just because where are you going to get that? Even if his mind's not right, he's still a double-double if he's healthy enough to play. But that makes this job a unique deal because, if you get him, you have a big guy who can make a difference. And you have a young All-Star point guard in Jrue Holiday. Think about that. You've got a chance to have a difference-making center and a young All-Star guard. Those are the two building blocks -- big and small.

"Now you just fill in the wings. Evan Turner had a pretty good year. And Doug Collins has instilled some things in them that are good. He's put down a nice little floor, a foundation. That is playing hard, playing together and playing for each other. So as a new coach coming in, you don't have to break down everything. You don't have to change the culture because they've already started to change the culture."


7. Detroit Pistons

"I keep saying it, but being in the East always helps. They've had a winning tradition, so there are still going to be expectations. But they're already in their process. And they're not totally stripped down. They do have some good young talent that kind of makes sense. Andre Drummond, Greg Monroe, Brandon Knight -- all those pieces make sense together. They just need to get some good veterans around them. And I think the owner is serious.

"Just the fact that he brought Phil [Jackson] in to help him find a coach. That speaks volumes about him and his ego because that means on some level he's surrendered his ego and said, 'We need help.' I like that in an owner. If they make one or two right decisions with the money they have this summer, they could be right back in the mix."


8. Phoenix Suns

"The obvious positives are that it's a good city and you can attract players. They've got a good reputation with their training staff, and there are no expectations on them. But the bad stuff is that they have a crazy owner. He's aloof, and you really don't know what you're really dealing with. I don't believe they're in their process yet either. They're starting over again. They tried to build when they went after Eric Gordon, but he couldn't come, so they had to start that over. They took a leap on [Michael] Beasley's talent, but he's not in their plans. They brought in an interim guy in Lindsey Hunter, and even the little bit that he built is going to be gone. So as the new coach, you're going to have to undo some stuff. You've got a bad roster with pieces and parts that don't fit.

"Marcin Gortat makes sense. The twins [Marcus and Markieff Morris] are both good players, but they're probably not difference-makers. I like Goran Dragic, but he's probably a middle-of-the-road starter. He's a good player, but he's obviously not in the elite class. He can't be your Man. They don't have an identity yet. You could spin it like, 'They don't have an identity, but I can build an identity.' That's your ego talking, because building on some of the stuff they have would be kind of scary. If I'm an established head coach, I wouldn't want any part of that."


9. Milwaukee Bucks

"Here comes the bad. There's a ton of uncertainty there. I've heard through the grapevine that they could move, so you don't know where they potentially could be. It's a poor market. It's a tough city. You're going to have to undo some things there. You can't brag on the facilities. You're not going to be able to just walk in there and attract free agents. [GM] John Hammond does a good job, but how do you sell free agents on this place? They got into the playoffs this year, which probably was worse than if they didn't make the playoffs. Being mediocre is not what you want to be. I think you keep either [Brandon] Jennings or [Monta] Ellis. I don't think you want both from a cultural standpoint. You're going to want some change. They haven't been terrible, but they haven't been good enough.

"J.J. Redikk is OK. Larry Sanders carved out a little niche for himself. Those are some selling points. But are those guys good enough to draw a big-time free agent? I don't think so. That's a place you might have to build it with a bunch of good players. You might not get a superstar, but maybe you can do it with a bunch of good players and play a style that gives you a chance to have a little bit of an advantage."


10. Sacramento Kings

"Bad market. Crazy, crazy roster. UNCERTAINTY in all caps. Uncertainty, uncertainty, uncertainty. That's a scary thing. You really don't know where that team is going to be long-term. How can you lay down any roots and get a commitment and attachments from players when you don't know where you're going to be? The tradition is there, but all this stuff that's gone on since their glory days has kind of tarnished their tradition. You walk into that arena and see the wood bleachers and that poor scoreboard and you forget about Bobby Jackson and Peja [Stojakovic] and Chris Webber, Vlade [Divac] and Mike Bibby. You don't even remember that stuff.

"Then they've drafted guys but don't have anything. I like Tyreke Evans, but is he a winner? Is he a product of being in a bad situation or just fighting to survive, and once he gets out of there, is he going to go somewhere else and flourish? He's got a nice game. He's got good size, but I also see that he has not impacted winning. You also wonder if he's selfish. Then there's DeMarcus Cousins. In that situation, you would have to have an ex-head coach or a tough guy on your bench -- a no-nonsense assistant coach, a Larry Smith or somebody like that. I'd have to have somebody with that kind of personality with me because I couldn't spend all of my time dealing with DeMarcus.

"The bottom line is that you're going to have to play him because you want to win and he's really good. He's got big-time game. But you also have to be strong enough to bend him and break him and make him the guy you want him to be. The environment and the culture there is crazy. There's a lot of undoing in that job."


11. Charlotte Bobcats

"It's a great area, a great city, and they've got a good facility. I don't know if it's MJ, but the thing that's discouraging about them is that they have no direction. They need to get one plan that they believe in, put their seatbelt on, strap in, ride and go with it.

"They're like a bad lawyer who keeps switching defenses. They've switched directions a few times now. They need to save their money and be bad, take a beating and build it up. Maybe they need to spend the money and bring in a big-time coach and treat it like a college situation, where you let the coach be the face of the team and then you figure it out from there."

 

[trick]

Thanks @Skooby, much appreciated.

Here's another one: 2013 NBA Draft - C.J. McCollum leads list of potential sleeper prospects - ESPN

 

[Frump]

2013 NBA Draft - Why Andrew Wiggins would go No. 1 in 2013 - ESPN

 

[Skooby]

Thanks @Skooby, much appreciated.

Here's another one: 2013 NBA Draft - C.J. McCollum leads list of potential sleeper prospects - ESPN

McCollum among top sleeper prospects

You know all about Nerlens Noel and Ben McLemore, you've followed Shabazz Muhammad since he was in the ninth grade, and you believe that Trey Burke was the best player in college basketball last season.

Who don't you know? Every year there are a few surprises in the first round, guys who haven't gotten much press but who turn into excellent draft picks.

Last year it was Weber State's Damian Lillard, who went on to become the NBA Rookie of the Year. In 2011, it was Morehead State's Kenneth Faried. In 2010, it was Fresno State's Paul George.

We call them draft sleepers -- talented prospects who haven't gotten the love they probably deserve.

This year, there's an abundance of them. Here are six guys you might not know much about who could end up having better careers than some of the more-hyped prospects in the draft.


C.J. McCollum, G, Lehigh

McCollum might not be a household name, but NBA scouts have been watching him closely ever since his terrific freshman season at Lehigh. As both a junior and a senior he ranked third in the nation in college PER. He had his national coming-out party during the first round of the 2012 NCAA tournament, when he recorded 30 points, 6 rebounds and 6 assists in a first-round upset of Duke.

He was off to a scintillating start as a senior, averaging 23.9 ppg and shooting a ridiculous 52 percent from 3-point range before a foot injury ended his season after just 12 games.

The good news is that McCollum is back. His foot is 100 percent, and he's been cleared for full workouts. The world will get its first look at him again at the NBA draft combine next week in Chicago.

What they should see is a very skilled scorer who can get his shot off from anywhere. There might not be a better scorer in the draft. McCollum is terrific in transition, can break down players off the dribble, shoot off the bounce and has deep 3-point range on his jumper in catch-and-shoot situations.

Despite his scoring acumen, McCollum is a heady player who also sees the floor well, reads defenses and keeps mistakes to a minimum. Although he's not a pure point guard, his slick handle, penetration ability and knack for finding open teammates all suggest he can easily make the transition to the point in the NBA.

Scouts say he's a high-character player who is driven to succeed. In many ways, he resembles Lillard in his work ethic and his fearlessness with the ball in his hands.

Of course, scouts have some issues with McCollum. Although the potential is there for him to make the transition to the point, he wasn't a high-assist player in college. Given his role on the team and his nature, he looked for his shot first. He also isn't a particularly explosive or quick athlete, which could create issues on both ends of the floor at the next level.

Nevertheless, more and more GMs seem to be warming up to McCollum as an elite prospect in the draft. We currently have him going No. 9 to the Timberwolves in our latest mock draft, but he could go as high as No. 4 to the Suns.


Glen Rice Jr., G/F, Rio Grande Vipers

It's hard to call the son of a former NBA All-Star a sleeper, but that's exactly what Rice became after being dismissed from Georgia Tech after his junior season for multiple team rule violations. Rice had the reputation as a troublemaker, an immature, entitled kid who was wasting his basketball talents.

However, Rice decided to play in the D-League this season, and after an inauspicious start, he caught fire in February and went on to average 18 points and eight rebounds a game through the rest of the season. He took his game to another level in the D-League playoffs, averaging 25 PPG and 9.5 RPG to lead the Vipers to the championship.

Rice Jr. has caught the eyes of scouts thanks to elite athletic abilities, a dangerous jump shot and fantastic rebounding ability as a wing. He's also made strides on the defensive end as well, recording above-average steals and blocks numbers. More importantly, he's had an incident-free season, indicating to NBA scouts that perhaps he's finally matured as a person.

How can a player who is dominating the D-League be ranked so low? Scouts are slow to accept that players can change. He wasn't on anyone's radar after his junior season of college, and they've been slow to wake up to his success. He's also been playing out of position as a power forward in the D-League, and there are questions about what position he will play in the NBA.

Nevertheless, the more the process moves forward, the higher Rice climbs. I think it's safe to say he's firmly in the first round right now. However, with great workouts and a great performance at the draft combine, he could end up in the lottery. There's that much potential there.


Isaiah Canaan, PG, Murray State

Fran Fraschilla broke down the case for Canaan on Tuesday, so I won't go into much more detail here, other than to say that Fran gets a major co-sign from me on Canaan. The Murray State star just didn't have a lot of support this season, but many scouts remember what he did to several of the opposing guards at the Nike LeBron James Skills Academy last summer. After he gets into workouts, he could become the next point guard off the board after Trey Burke, McCollum and Michael Carter-Williams hear their names called.


Ricardo Ledo, G, Providence

Ledo was the 21st-ranked high school prospect in the country last season and was widely regarded as the most gifted scoring guard in the class. Poor academics and inconsistent effort were the only things holding him back from being a star. Ledo failed to academically qualify to play at Providence, and has spent the past season practicing with but not playing for the team.

Had Ledo been able to declare for the draft last year, I think he would have been a mid to late first-round pick. Where will he go this year?

His talent, size and scoring ability are still all there. He also has a high basketball IQ and the ability to be a big point guard. His weaknesses are inconsistent effort and some selfishness with the ball. Scouts who have seen him in practices this season still swear he's one of the top talents in this draft and believe he'll blow up in workouts.

We moved Ledo into the first round of our mock draft on Tuesday. If he plays well at the combine and in workouts, he could move another 10 or 15 spots up the board. There are few upside prospects in this draft, and Ledo has just about every scout I've spoken with intrigued.


Jackie Carmichael, PF, Illinois State

Carmichael has had a bit of a cult following all season among NBA scouts. He's not young (23), nor does he have huge upside. However, he's the rare power forward these days who actually plays with power. At 6-foot-9, 240 pounds with a 7-foot wingspan, he has the requisite size and strength to play in the post. And he works his butt off on both ends of the floor. He's physical and finishes above the rim in the paint. He rarely touches the ball outside of 18 feet.

His explosive athletic ability, toughness on the boards, shot-blocking and quickness are all indicative of an NBA backup power forward. He won't ever be a big-time scorer in the league, but could fill a Udonis Haslem-type role at the next level as a tough defender who protects the rim, grabs rebounds and scores on garbage points. He could be a late first-round pick.