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Skooby

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Which future high draft picks turned heads at Future Stars Series?



The Future Stars Series held its annual International Week tournament over the holiday weekend at the Dodgers/White Sox stadium in Glendale, Arizona, featuring two very solid rosters mostly comprising 2019 and 2020 draft prospects with a sprinkling of international free agents mixed in as well. I attended all three games of the event and thought these were the best and/or most intriguing players between the two teams.


Panamian-born right-hander Daniel Espino, who now lives in Statesboro, Georgia, is the most famous name in the high school pitching crop for 2019, having hit 99 mph earlier this summer at the Perfect Game All-American Classic at Petco in a one-inning stint. He dialed it all the way back to 92-97 for a longer outing in Glendale, but what was more impressive was that he repeated his delivery and showed he could throw the fastball for strikes and work with it to both sides of the plate. Espino's arm action was a real concern at the start of the summer, but he's cleaned it up, and while it can get long and he needs to avoid coming across his body, he's repeating it enough now to foresee future above-average command. He paired the fastball with a hard curveball at 77-82 that flashed plus. I'd be surprised if he weren't one of the first two or three high school pitchers taken next June.

Mick Abel projects as a top-10 pick in 2020, as the 6-foot-5 right-hander from Cedar Mill, Oregon, has been up to 95 at showcases already and has a great delivery that gets him on top of the ball very well at release. In Arizona, he was 89-94 with good life up in the zone and showed feel for a power curveball at 82-83 with late, sharp break down and away from right-handers. He's very projectable as well and I wouldn't be shocked to see him sitting mid-90s by his draft year, although even at his present velocity he'll be a top prospect in the class because of his frame, delivery, and potential out pitch in the breaking ball.


Las Vegas right-hander Aaron Roberts, a Cal commit who also plays the infield corners, was impressive in a short stint on the mound, sitting an easy 91-93, getting on top of the ball well and turning over a promising changeup as well. He has a good arm slot for a curveball but needs more reps to develop his feel for it.

Minnesota lefty Drew Gilbert was 89-91 with some sink to it, but it was his curveball that really stood out to me -- up to 75 with what looked like very tight spin, a future plus pitch that he was willing to throw on the inner third to lefties as well as spinning it away from them. The 2019 graduate is committed to Oregon State but should be more than good enough to go on Day 1.

Will Frisch is Gilbert's teammate at Stillwater HS, and is also committed to Oregon State. Frisch, a right-hander, threw in the first game and attacked hitters with a 90-94 mph fastball and solid 79-82 mph breaking ball, coming from a low ¾ slot and short arm action that might give him trouble staying a starter long term. I'd like to see more sink from the fastball, which would be typical from the lower slot.

Glenallen Hill, Jr., was probably the highest-profile position player in the event thanks to his very explosive tools and his name -- his father was a big, physical power hitter, and a man ahead of his time, as he struck out 211 times in 530 PA as a 20-year-old in A-ball in 1985. The younger Hill is smaller but much faster, average out of the box but probably a 70 runner underway, if not faster, and shows excellent bat speed, especially from the left side. His timing at the plate was off at the Future Stars Series, however -- he was late getting his hands started and behind a lot of pitches he should have squared up. He played short and second but given his speed and erratic hands he might profile best in center.

Shortstop/third baseman Tyler McKenzie (Loxahatchee, Florida) also showed some very intriguing tools but didn't get results at the plate. He's an instinctive player with outstanding hands for the infield and is athletic like his older brother, Cleveland pitching prospect Triston McKenzie. Tyler was behind decent fastballs all weekend, however, and is going to have to show better bat speed or that he can start his hands quicker. The speed he shows in workouts wasn't showing up in games either. He's committed to Vanderbilt.

Brock Jones is one of the top two-sport players in the 2019 draft class, starring at safety and as an outfielder and pitcher for Buchanan HS near Fresno, California. Jones is a plus runner who bats from the left side and has a quick, slashing stroke that doesn't take full advantage of his strength. I think he's a power/speed guy if someone gets him to use his legs more and put some loft in his swing, which can be very flat. He's still uncommitted to any college, although several major Division-I schools appear to have made offers.

Canadian catcher/first baseman Blake Buckle made consistent hard contact over the course of the three games and showed some extra-base power, and even though he's a left-handed hitter he didn't look worse against southpaws. He's a man in search of a position -- although he catches, he has a 40 arm and he's not really agile enough to profile behind the plate, but he's more than fine at first base and someone might just bet on the bat playing at any position.

Dilan Rosario might be the guy from Puerto Rico to watch for 2019, another in a line of shortstops from the island who go high in the draft. He showed above-average speed and impressive hand strength, driving a triple the other way against a lefty in his most impressive result, and shows good enough actions in the field to profile at short in the long run. He's also young for the class and won't turn 18 until next July. Rosario, Johzan Oquendo -- a converted outfielder who was 88-91 with a 79-84 mph slider in Arizona -- and outfielder Adrian Colon, all three of whom were at the Future Stars Series, will be among the top prospects from the island in the class.

Joel Ibarra was one of the top international prospects at the event and would already be signed by somebody if it weren't for the recent kerfuffle over the rules around MLB teams signing Mexican amateur players, including a temporary moratorium. Ibarra played the infield and pitched, showing more promise on the mound if he were to focus on it full-time -- he has arm strength, sitting 86-88, with some feel for a curveball, but pitches like an infielder, right down to the hesitation midway through his delivery.
 

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Is Kyler Murray a legit NFL prospect? Kiper & McShay weigh in

Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray is going to play professional baseball. He has nearly 5 million reasons to do so, after the Oakland Athletics took him No. 9 overall in the MLB draft in June. "Kyler's baseball career has a very defined path, which includes playing football at OU for only the 2018 season," agent Scott Boras said in August.

But what if Murray weren't committed to baseball in 2019 and beyond? What if he decided to give football a shot long-term? We asked ESPN NFL draft experts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay to evaluate Murray, a fourth-year junior for the Sooners, as a football prospect.

Jump below the Murray section for Kiper and McShay's picks for under-the-radar prospects to keep an eye on, the College Football Playoff and MVP.

Murray's NFL potential
Kiper: Murray is one of the best dual-threat college quarterbacks I've ever seen. He just has rare athleticism, and there's a reason he was once one of the most sought-after recruits in the country. But Murray is so much more than a runner. He goes through progressions as a passer, he has a quick release, and the ball jumps out of his hand.
McShay: The arm talent has surpassed my expectations, no question. Murray is just naturally gifted with touch and ball placement. The numbers so far are incredible: 21 total touchdowns and just two picks in five games. He leads FBS in yards per attempt (13.4), and the Sooners rank first in yards per play (8.9).



Kiper: Size is the obvious question for his NFL future. Oklahoma lists him at 5-foot-10, 195 pounds, which is 3 inches shorter and 20 pounds lighter than Baker Mayfield, whom he backed up in 2017. There just hasn't been any recent pro success for quarterbacks under 6 feet, other than Russell Wilson.

McShay: And Wilson has a totally different body type than Murray. He's stronger and thicker, though Murray is the better overall athlete. Could Murray hold up physically as an NFL quarterback? We also had a 50-start college sample for Wilson. Murray has started only eight games so far, including three at Texas A&M in 2015. He is raw.

Kiper: The closest comp, physically, is Doug Flutie, who was 5-foot-9, 175 pounds coming out of Boston College in 1985. Murray is the superior athlete, but Flutie had a long pro career as an undersized signal-caller. He's really the only one who has come close.

McShay: Let's not forget that if Murray were serious about football, he has another year of eligibility to use. I'd love to see him get more starts in 2019 under coach Lincoln Riley, one of college football's brightest offensive minds. There are few coaches better than Riley at scheming open pass-catchers. He'll make Murray better.


Kiper: Totally agree. Right now, with a limited sample, I'd put Murray in the third-round range as a draft prospect. Maybe a creative team could take him earlier on Day 2 and use him situationally in his first season, like the Ravens are doing with Lamar Jackson. What do you think, Todd?

McShay: Again, just eight career starts. But my best early guess is there's no way this type of natural talent would get out of Round 2.

Drew Henson, Brandon Weeden and Chris Weinke. Keep in mind that Murray's $4.66 million signing bonus from Oakland is a lot of money. For reference, Raiders offensive tackle Brandon Parker, the first pick of the third round in April's draft, got $1,058,424 guaranteed in his deal.

Almost-famous under-the-radar prospects
Keep an eye on these potential Day 2 or Day 3 picks:
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Juan Thornhill, S, Virginia
With eight career interceptions and a knack for breaking up passes, Thornhill has emerged as a potential Day 2 pick in 2019. He plays a rover-type position for the Cavaliers, and he played some cornerback early in his college career. At 6-foot, 210 pounds, he can play close to the line of scrimmage and help in the run game. It's that support in the run game that has most popped up on tape; he has 31 tackles so far this season. -- Kiper
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Jimmy Moreland, CB, James Madison
The 5-foot-11, 175-pound redshirt senior cornerback returned an interception 100 yards for a touchdown in Saturday's victory over Richmond to extend his interception streak to four games. It was also the third straight game in which he took an interception to the house for the Dukes. In all, he has 17 career picks, and he has returned six for touchdowns. Moreland is undersized and has average speed, but he is a competitor and does a great job using his off-hand to disrupt receivers. He can be too physical at times and occasionally gets caught peeking into the backfield. However, his ball skills and playmaking ability make him a late-round consideration in April. -- McShay

Prospects on the rise
These are the draft prospects moving up boards:
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Grant Delpit, S, LSU
He isn't eligible for the 2019 draft as a sophomore, but he could be an eventual first-round pick. The 6-foot-3, 203-pound safety has two interceptions this season and has recorded three sacks, 6.5 tackles for loss and 27 total tackles (including 10 against Auburn in Week 3) for LSU. He plays with a lot of range and exhibits great ball skills. Delpit also shows a good sense of natural instinct when playing the game. He will be a name to know heading into the 2020 draft year. -- McShay

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Chase Winovich, DE, Michigan
The Wolverines' defense pitched a second-half shutout in the comeback win over Northwestern on Saturday, and Winovich was a huge part of that. He had a sack and three total tackles for loss, and he was a nuisance off the edge. Winovich is great at using his hands as a pass-rusher and run defender, and he is always near the action. He can play on his feet or with his hand in the dirt, and that versatility makes him valuable at the next level. With the blond hair flowing out of his helmet, the 6-foot-3, 255-pounder reminds me of Clay Matthews, and he could be a late first-round pick like Matthews was in 2009 (No. 26 overall). -- Kiper


College football's most valuable players
These aren't our picks for the Heisman Trophy winner; these are the MVPs of college football.
Kiper's top three:

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1. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama: Tagovailoa (97.8) and Murray (96.8) have the two highest QBRs through five games in the past 15 seasons, according to ESPN Stats & Information research. The Heisman race is shaping up to be special.

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2. Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma: Watch this run to see why Murray is such a special athlete.

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3. Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State: Haskins had an up-and-down game against Penn State and missed some throws, but he came on in the second half. With an easy schedule coming up, don't discount Haskins in the Heisman race.

McShay's top three:

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1. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama: He's the Heisman favorite right now for good reason. He was a perfect 8-for-8 against Louisiana-Lafayette on Saturday, continuing his dominance.

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2. Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State: Haskins used the screen pass to beat Penn State on Saturday, completing three on the winning touchdown drive. In all, he was 11-for-12 on screen passes on the night, with a pair of touchdowns.

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3. Will Grier, QB, West Virginia: His 370-yard, three-touchdown performance Saturday against Texas Tech brought West Virginia to 4-0.

If the College Football Playoff started today ...
Kiper's top four teams:
1. Alabama

2. Georgia

3. Ohio State

4. Clemson

McShay's top four teams:

1. Alabama

2. Ohio State

3. Georgia

4. Clemson
 

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Kiper's 2019 Big Board: Pass-rushers rising for NFL draft

Part 1:

2019 NFL draft prospects ranking - Mel Kiper Big Board, ranking top 25, grades, October

by Mel Kiper Jr.

SEC pass-rushers and a quarterback are moving up. Another quarterback is moving down. Three new prospects are in the top 25.

My updated Big Board for the 2019 NFL draft -- the best prospects for this class -- is below.

A few notes before I get started, same as always:

  • These aren't detailed scouting reports. I still have a lot of work to do on these prospects, and what they do from now until January matters a lot.

  • The draft is all about projection, so keep in mind that several guys here have started only one season.

  • Height and weight are based on what we have from schools. We don't get official numbers until the 2019 combine.
Note: One asterisk denotes the player is a junior, and two asterisks denote the player is a redshirt sophomore in 2018.

1. Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State*
Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 263 pounds | Previously: 1

I don't expect Bosa's core muscle injury to affect his draft stock. It's not an injury with lasting long-term effects. I would like to see him on the field soon -- the Buckeyes' defensive line isn't the same without him. He's the Class of 2019's best edge rusher, and it's not close. He is advanced for his age in his technique -- you can probably thank his brother, Joey, and dad, John, both former first-round picks -- and he hasn't put up huge numbers because of Ohio State's talented defensive line rotation. He has four sacks in the three games after picking up eight in 2017.


2. Ed Oliver, DT, Houston*
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 292 | Previously: 2

On tape, Oliver is just relentless. He never quits. He's the best interior pass-rusher in this class, though he's not quite Aaron Donald. Those are the comps Oliver is going to get until April, but that's not fair to him at this point. He has room to grow in his technique. Oliver uses a quick first step to wreck plays before they can even begin -- he had 39 tackles for loss in his first two seasons, and he has 6.5 this season.



3. Devin White, LB, LSU*
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 240 | Previously: 3

White had 133 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks and an interception during a spectacular breakout 2017 season. He has dominated this season, too, with 53 tackles, including 6.5 for loss so far. I love his read-and-react ability, and when I went back and watched the 2017 LSU tape, he was all over the field. White is not a true pass-rusher, but he could play outside or inside linebacker at the next level. He has some versatility and is extremely athletic.

4. Andraez "Greedy" Williams, CB, LSU**
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 184 | Previously: 7

Williams burst onto the scene in 2017, picking off six passes as a redshirt freshman and emerging as one of the best defensive backs in college football. He has two picks this season, including one in the Tigers' upset over Auburn. Williams has great ball skills and a long, lean frame, and he sticks to wide receivers. The third-year sophomore has top-five talent if he leaves school early.

5. Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson*
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 265 | Previously: 4

I thought Ferrell could have been a first-round pick in the 2018 draft, when he was a third-year sophomore. He's that good. He had 9.5 sacks last season and is up to six in six games this season. He terrorized Texas A&M and Georgia Southern with two sacks apiece and multiple pressures. Clemson has one of the most talented defensive lines I've ever seen in college football, and Ferrell is the top prospect.

6. Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama*
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 301 | Previously: 8

It's not easy to start for Nick Saban as a freshman, and that's exactly what Williams did when he lined up as the right tackle in Week 1 in 2016. Now he has started more than 30 games in two-plus seasons, spending last season on the left side. There's a chance he could move to guard in the NFL, but I like him as a tackle right now.

7. Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 241 | Previously: 13

I just wrote about why Sweat was moving up on my board. After putting up three sacks in Saturday's win over Auburn, he now has 15 sacks in 18 games since transferring to Mississippi State. Sweat's frame has room for more weight, so he could play outside linebacker in a 3-4 or defensive end in a 4-3. He showed last season that he's one of the best pass-rushers in college football, putting up 10.5 sacks and 15.5 tackles for loss. He has an outstanding takeoff at the snap and good pass-rushing moves.


8. Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon*
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 233 | Previously: 14

Check out this video clip. Herbert scrambles out of the pocket against Bowling Green and fires a 50-yard strike to an open receiver in the end zone. That's where he flashes the ability that makes NFL scouts perk up. Now, he has thrown five interceptions against so-so competition thus far -- that's where he flashes the bad stuff. His decision-making was improved last season (he finished No. 12 in the FBS in Total QBR at 80.1, even after missing five games because of a broken collarbone), but there are bad throws at times. I'd like to see more consistency overall, but he has the traits that teams love, and that's why he's my No. 1 quarterback right now. Watch the touchdown throw against Cal above -- that's a great ball.

9. Rashan Gary, DT, Michigan*
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 283 | Previously: 5

Gary dominates when he's at his best; just manhandles offensive linemen. The problem? Consistency. A defender this big and this talented should have more than 17 tackles for loss in two seasons. The former No. 1 overall recruit disappears too often for my liking. He has 4.5 TFL this season and is dealing with a shoulder injury that kept him out in the win over Maryland.

10. Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 185 | Previously: 10

Passers who went after Baker last season didn't have much luck. He broke up nine passes and had six interceptions. Even after losing Roquan Smith, there is still a ton of talent on the Georgia defense, and it starts with Baker, who has developed into an elite corner. Baker has three more picks this season.

11. Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson*
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 340 | Previously: 6

As I wrote in my way-too-early Big Board, big-bodied guys who move like Lawrence and can eat gaps don't last long in the draft. And Lawrence has shown that he is more than a plugger -- he had nine sacks in his first two seasons. Turn on the tape, and Lawrence takes on blockers and throws them aside. He hasn't made a huge impact this season, however, as he has only 12 total tackles and one tackle for loss in six games.

12. Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State*
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 300 | Previously: 9

Simmons had two touchdowns last season. In one game. He blocked a punt and recovered the ball in the end zone, then took a fumble 90 yards to the house in the rout of Louisiana Tech. The big man can move. Simmons, a disruptive player on the interior, also chipped in five sacks and 12 tackles for loss in 2017. He has 8.5 tackles for loss this season. Simmons will have to answer to NFL teams about his 2016 arrest.

13. Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama**
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 194 | Previously: 17

Nick Saban and Alabama consistently produce NFL-ready defensive backs, and Thompson could be the next in line. After playing in the rotation most of the past two seasons, Thompson stepped in to start two games at the end of 2017. He didn't look out of place. So far in 2018, he has been spectacular, racking up 35 tackles and two interceptions. Thompson has great range and is a natural playmaker. The third-year sophomore has emerged as one of college football's best all-around defensive backs.

14. Josh Allen, OLB, Kentucky
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 230 | Previously: 21

I pegged Allen before the season as a potential Day 2 pick, as he broke out in 2017 with seven sacks, 66 tackles and an interception. Allen is disruptive, and he has the length that NFL teams love as a 3-4 outside linebacker. He has six sacks this season, including a three-sack day in the win over South Carolina.

15. Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss*
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 325 | Previously: 11

Little is a true left tackle. He won't have to move to the right side in the NFL. He's light on his feet and can get to the second level to take on linebackers, and he consistently overpowers SEC edge defenders at the point of attack.
 

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Part 2


16. Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn*
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 325 | Previously: 12

It's tough to miss Brown on the 2017 Auburn tape. He bullied offensive linemen during a breakout season in which he had nine tackles for loss and 56 total tackles. He's still raw and still developing pass-rushing moves, but the size and athleticism are there to be a top-10 pick. He has four tackles for loss this season.




17. Julian Love, CB, Notre Dame
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 193 | Previously: NR

The Fighting Irish are undefeated and playing extremely well, and Love is developing into a shutdown corner. He has broken up 11 passes this season, and he had an interception and a 42-yard fumble return for a touchdown in the win at Virginia Tech. Check it out in the clip above. Love had three picks in 2017, when he started every game as a sophomore.

18. Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 310 | Previously: 20

Wilkins skipped the 2018 draft and decided to return for another season at Clemson. And like his linemate Ferrell, Wilkins could have gone on Day 1 last April. I compared Wilkins last year to former Alabama defensive lineman Jonathan Allen, because he's scheme-versatile and could play end or tackle in the NFL. Wilkins has 5.5 tackles for loss this season. The Clemson defensive line is loaded.

19. Brian Burns, OLB/DE, Florida State*
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 235 | Previously: 23

Florida State almost upset Miami on Saturday, and Burns had two sacks in the loss. The twitchy pass-rusher has been a bright spot, with seven sacks in six games. He put up 13.5 tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks last season, after 9.5 sacks as a freshman in 2016. Burns has a lean frame and needs more time in the weight room, but he could grow into a 4-3 end in time. There's a chance he rises even more after the combine.

20. Dre'Mont Jones, DT, Ohio State
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 286 | Previously: 22

There was some draft buzz late last year about Jones, who was dominating as a third-year sophomore, though he didn't always show up on the stat sheet. The decision to return to Ohio State looks great -- he is starting to put it all together. You can see some of his athleticism in this clip in which he steps in front of a shovel pass for a pick-six against TCU. He also has 4.5 sacks this season. This is a three-technique tackle with a high ceiling, and he has top-10 pick potential.

21. Raekwon Davis, DE, Alabama*
Height: 6-7 | Weight: 316 | Previously: 15

You might remember the massive Davis intercepting Georgia's Jake Fromm in the College Football Playoff national title game last season. He moves extremely well for his size. Davis is still developing pass-rushing moves, but he has the size and athleticism that NFL teams love. He had 8.5 sacks last season but doesn't have any in 2018.

22. Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma*
Height: 5-9 | Weight: 168 | Previously: 19

I wrote about Brown as a riser a few weeks ago -- he's a big-play threat on every route. He has game-changing speed and is dynamic after the catch. Since the start of the 2017 season, he has 16 catches of 40-plus yards. Brown can play in the slot or outside, creating easy separation with that speed. And he's not one-dimensional; he runs every route that NFL teams want to see. The question is size -- at 5-9, he doesn't look like a No. 1 wide receiver. But the NFL is changing: Speed is everything. He can be a deep threat at the next level, in the mold of John Ross, who has started to flash his talent in Year 2. Brown should be in the discussion for Round 1, especially after he works out at the combine.

23. Zach Allen, DE, Boston College
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 285 | Previously: NR

Yes, Allen can get after quarterbacks, but he also was credited with 100 total tackles in 2017. He's not former Boston College first-round pick Luke Kuechly, of course, but he's a complete defender. And Allen was better than 2018 second-round pick Harold Landry last season -- Allen had 15.5 tackles for loss and six sacks. He has 8.5 TFL and 3.5 sacks this season and probably will be a 4-3 end at the next level.

24. Chase Winovich, OLB, Michigan
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 255 | Previously: NR

I highlighted Winovich recently as a potential riser, when he had three tackles for loss against Northwestern. He is great at using his hands as a pass-rusher and run defender, and he is always near the action. He has 10.5 TFL so far this season. Winovich can play on his feet or with his hand in the dirt, and that versatility makes him valuable at the next level. I also noted that with the blond hair flowing out of his helmet, he reminds me of Clay Matthews hitting quarterbacks off the edge.

25. Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 225 | Previously: 16

Lock got off to a hot start, with 13 total touchdowns (11 passing) and only one pick in three games, but he has no touchdown passes and three interceptions in two games against better competition (losses to Georgia and South Carolina). And he completed only 47 percent of his passes in those games. Lock has as much arm talent as any quarterback from the past few drafts, but the question is consistency. He leaves throws on the field, even as he puts up big numbers. Of course, he also hits some big ones, as shown by his 44 touchdown passes and only 13 picks last season.
 

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Projected NBA win totals, playoff standings for all 30 teams in 2018-19
by Kevin Pelton on (original: Projected W-L records, standings for every NBA team)

Let's take a first look at how the 2018-19 NBA season might play out after a busy offseason highlighted by LeBron James' move from the Cleveland Cavaliers to the Los Angeles Lakers.


For the past three seasons, we've been using ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) along with a projection of games played and my best guess at playing time to forecast the upcoming NBA campaign. After unusually large errors in last season's projections for the Boston Celtics, Indiana Pacers and Toronto Raptors, I've made a couple of changes to the process.

As Andrew Johnson recently explored on Nylon Calculus, players who change teams tend to see their RPM decline, particularly if they rate far better than average offensively, and they are now projected separately from players who stay on the same team. Additionally, I redid the way players without RPM projections are handled using their outlook from my SCHOENE player projection system, improving the accuracy of their defensive ratings. The changes improved how well RPM projections retrodicted past seasons using actual minutes played, both in and out of sample.

Inevitably, the unpredictable nature of injuries, midseason trades, randomness and factors that can't be quantified by RPM mean some teams will exceed or fall short of their projections. Nonetheless, they give us an early guideline of what to expect from the upcoming season, so let's take a look conference-by-conference.

Eastern Conference
1. Toronto Raptors
Projected wins: 55.1

The Raptors have a history of outperforming their RPM projections, including last season, when they were pegged sixth in the East with an expected 44.7 wins. This season's forecast will be much tougher to beat. With Kawhi Leonard penciled in for 65 games, the Raptors project as the East's best team -- and the second-best overall -- because of the upgrade from DeMar DeRozanon the wing.

2. Boston Celtics
Projected wins: 53.2

Given Boston won 55 games with Gordon Hayward limited to five minutes total and Kyrie Irvingmissing 22 games last season, winning just 53 this season would probably be considered a disappointment. Part of the issue is the Celtics' point differential was more consistent with a 51-win team, meaning they start at a slightly lower baseline. Projections for Hayward and Al Horfordare also conservative, giving Boston room to outperform them.

3. Philadelphia 76ers
Projected wins: 47.8

Something similar is true of the Sixers, who won 52 games last season with the point differential of a 53-win team. One key factor in this relatively low projection is that Joel Embiid is expected to play just 50 games, 13 fewer than last season. If he can avoid injury, Philadelphia will perform better. The 76ers also suffer from the addition of forward Wilson Chandler, projected for a minus-1.8 RPM.

4. Indiana Pacers
Projected wins: 45.7

Continuing a theme, the Pacers are projected to take a slight step back after winning 48 games and giving the Cleveland Cavaliers a scare in the opening round. Indiana slightly outperformed its point differential last season, consistent with a 45-win team, and added a player rated poorly by RPM (Doug McDermott, minus-2.2). Add in regression for Victor Oladipo after a career season, and the Pacers might struggle to match last season's record.

5. Milwaukee Bucks
Projected wins: 45.2

Indiana is atop a second tier in the East with four teams separated by barely two projected wins. Milwaukee, which finished seventh in the conference last season, is pegged to take a slight step forward into that group with the addition of Brook Lopez (projected minus-0.6 RPM) solidifying a center spot that was a major weakness after the Greg Monroe trade.

6. Miami Heat
Projected wins: 44.8

Miami brings back largely the same roster that went 44-38 in 2017-18, so it's no surprise the Heat are expected to finish in about the same spot in the East. Miami's projection would take a slight hit if future Hall of Famer Dwyane Wade (projected minus-2.4 RPM) decides to return for a 16th season.

7. Washington Wizards
Projected wins: 43.6

The Wizards are hoping to jump back into the mix for home-court advantage in the East two years after winning 49 games and getting within a win of the conference finals. However, RPM sees this season more likely looking like last season's 43-39 finish. The addition of Dwight Howard(projected minus-1.4 RPM) doesn't figure to help much, though John Wall performing more like he did in 2016-17 would help Washington beat this projection.

8. Detroit Pistons
Projected wins: 39.4

After the Wizards, there's a big step down to the next tier of teams hoping to replace the Cavaliers in the playoffs. Detroit is at the front of that line despite a projection largely unchanged from last year's 39-43 finish.

9. Charlotte Hornets
Projected wins: 38.3

RPM missed on the Hornets last season, pegging them as heavy favorites to make the playoffs. Charlotte's projection is far more modest this time around, though the Hornets still have a chance to get into the playoff mix if center Cody Zeller can beat the 68 games he's projected to play.

10. Brooklyn Nets
Projected wins: 36.8

The Nets should take a solid step forward from last season's 28 wins after filling out their bench with newcomers Ed Davis (projected minus-0.6 RPM), Jared Dudley (minus-0.8) and Shabazz Napier (minus-0.8), all of them solidly better than replacement level. As a result, Brooklyn could challenge for a playoff spot in the first year the team owns its first-round pick outright since 2013.

11. Orlando Magic
Projected wins: 33.6

Internal development should lift Orlando past last season's 25 wins, but the Magic remain a long shot to reach the playoffs in the seventh season of a rebuilding project that began with Dwight Howard's trade nearly six years ago.

12. Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected wins: 31.0

With the newly extended Kevin Love as an anchor, the Cavaliers have more talent left than they did the last time LeBron James left, when they slipped to 19 wins. Nonetheless, with just two players (Love and Larry Nance Jr.) projected for an RPM better than plus-0.1, Cleveland will have a difficult time returning to the playoffs.

13. New York Knicks
Projected wins: 30.8

I pegged Kristaps Porzingis for 41 games, which would put his return in late December under the assumption he'll miss a few more afterward for precautionary reasons. Without their All-Star, the Knicks will likely struggle despite putting together some promising young talent.

14. Chicago Bulls
Projected wins: 28.0

The Bulls used their cap space on matching an offer sheet to restricted free agent Zach LaVine(minus-2.1 projected RPM) and signing former No. 2 pick Jabari Parker (minus-1.8), so it's no surprise they aren't expected to improve much on last season's 27 wins.

15. Atlanta Hawks
Projected wins: 25.9

Atlanta figures to be a bit more competitive than last season's 24-58 finish, though the Hawks may have incentive to be the first team that goes all-in on lottery positioning in a season when most other teams are at least hoping to improve.
 

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Western Conference
1. Golden State Warriors
Projected wins: 58.6

The Warriors ended up falling short of last season's expected 62.6 wins, largely because of injuries. Though Golden State may be healthier this season, aging and regression to the mean drop the Warriors' projection to about where they ended in 2017-18 (58 wins) -- though it's still 3.5 wins ahead of any other team.

2. Utah Jazz
Projected wins: 53.4

In a conference that no longer appears to have a second elite team, Utah moves up despite -- or perhaps in part because of -- a relatively quiet offseason. With Rudy Gobert in the lineup, the Jazz won at a 54-win clip in 2017-18, so it's reasonable to think they can maintain that pace this season.

3. Houston Rockets
Projected wins: 53.0

Even if the Rockets had brought everyone back this offseason, their RPM projection would likely have come in well south of last season's 65 wins, which slightly exceeded their point differential (typical of a 61-win team). Factor in the downgrade from Trevor Ariza (minus-1.2 projected RPM) and Luc Mbah a Moute (minus-0.1) to Carmelo Anthony (minus-1.6, and reportedly on his way to Houston) and James Ennis (minus-1.7), and Houston drops slightly behind Utah in terms of projected average wins.

4. Denver Nuggets
Projected wins: 50.5

Though they fell just short of the postseason, the Nuggets won 46 games with newcomer Paul Millsap (38 games) playing less than half their games. Add in the development of young talent and possible addition by subtraction with the Wilson Chandler trade, and Denver is a sleeper to contend for home-court advantage in the opening round.

5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected wins: 49.6

Having beaten out the Nuggets for the last playoff spot in the West, the Timberwolves also figure to improve by virtue of better health after going 10-13 in the 23 games Jimmy Butler missed.

6. Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected wins: 47.2

NBA free agency and trades![/paste:font]
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Surprisingly, even after re-signing Paul George, the Thunder don't look any better than they did last season, when they won 48 games with the point differential of a 50-win team. While conventional wisdom has Anthony's departure in the addition-by-subtraction category, likely replacement Jerami Grant (projected minus-1.7 RPM) actually rates worse. And newcomers Nerlens Noel (minus-1.1) and Dennis Schroder (minus-1.2) don't project as significant upgrades on the second unit, so even a full season from Andre Roberson after a ruptured patella tendon doesn't keep Oklahoma City in the projected top four in the West.

7. New Orleans Pelicans
Projected wins: 44.1

This projection for the Pelicans is more in line with their point differential (typical of a 44-win team) than their actual 48 wins last season. With the adjustment for changing teams, neither Elfrid Payton (minus-1.3 projected RPM) nor Julius Randle (minus-1.0) look like major upgrades for New Orleans -- though they came at value prices.

8. Portland Trail Blazers
Projected wins: 42.0

The Blazers' offseason makeover of their bench, along with regression to the mean, is responsible for a projected drop from last season's 49 wins -- good for third in the West. Seth Curry (projected minus-1.4 RPM) doesn't rate as well as Napier, while Davis' departure means more minutes for second-year center Zach Collins (minus-1.9).

9. L.A. Lakers
Projected wins: 41.2

When the Lakers first signed LeBron, I put together a preliminary RPM projection that pegged them for 50 wins. So why the drop to 41 in the full version? No team was hit harder by the adjustment for players changing teams than the Lakers, who project to have just 55 percent of their minutes played by returning players. (Only the Phoenix Suns are lower in this regard.) And no individual was hit harder than James, whose projected RPM dropped from plus-5.0 to plus-2.7. While LeBron's offensive RPM did in fact take a huge hit when he joined the Miami Heat in 2010-11 (from plus-8.7 to plus-4.8), he's still likely to beat that projection.

If James drops only to a plus-4.0, the Lakers would move into eighth, and even if this projection is accurate for all teams they would still probably be better than 50-50 bets to make the playoffs because somebody else falls out, so RPM isn't necessarily calling them a lottery team. Nonetheless, these projections do now suggest the Lakers are far from challenging the best teams in the West.

10. San Antonio Spurs
Projected wins: 38.5

The narrative about the Spurs since the Leonard trade has been that they're adding DeRozan to a team that won 47 games last season with virtually no contribution from Kawhi. (I even mentioned something similar in my trade grades.) The problem with that analysis is San Antonio lost two other starters in Danny Green and Kyle Anderson, who filled Leonard's spot in the lineup. Anderson rated as the Spurs' second-best player by RPM last season and Green (minus-0.2) projects better than DeRozan (minus-0.4) by RPM. Add in aging from San Antonio's veteran core and it's certainly possible the Spurs won't be as good as they were last season, though I wouldn't necessarily bet against them making the playoffs.

11. LA Clippers
Projected wins: 35.5

The Clippers attempted to remain in playoff contention while mostly avoiding long-term salary to maintain their 2019 cap space, but by RPM they achieved only one of those two goals. They project as also-rans in the West playoff race in part because newcomers Marcin Gortat (minus-1.4 projected RPM) and Mike Scott (minus-1.8) rate poorly. So too does Avery Bradley (minus-1.1), who may as well be a holdover, while one-and-done point guards like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander(minus-2.7) have been ineffective as rookies.

12. Memphis Grizzlies
Projected wins: 33.1

Though the Grizzlies have beaten poor RPM projections in the past, that wasn't the case last season, when their controversial 35-win projection actually proved 13 too many. That was partly due to injury and an emphasis on draft positioning, but even with the addition of Anderson (projected plus-1.4 RPM), Memphis actually projects worse than a season ago. Aging is a factor there, with stars Mike Conley and Marc Gasol another year removed from their primes.

13. Dallas Mavericks
Projected wins: 32.1


Dallas is a bit closer to competing in the West than last season's 24-58 record, given the Mavericks' point differential was more typical of a 32-win team. Without much incentive to lose games after trading a protected pick to the Atlanta Hawks to move up for Luka Doncic, Dallas should be closer to that mark this season, though projections for Doncic (minus-0.8, still fourth-best among rookies) and DeAndre Jordan (0.0) are conservative.

14. Phoenix Suns
Projected wins: 27.2

While the Suns might be trying to win after signing Ariza to a one-year, $15 million contract, RPM still doesn't see them as particularly competitive. After all, Phoenix was last in the league in both offensive and defensive rating, so even a projected improvement to 27th on offense won't help much. (The Suns still project as the league's worst defense on a per-possession basis.)

15. Sacramento Kings
Projected wins: 25.4

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No expected lottery team has less incentive to lose games than the Kings, who owe their 2019 first-round pick to either the 76ers (if it lands No. 1 overall) or the Celtics (otherwise). But even after decent additions in free agents Nemanja Bjelica (minus-0.5 projected RPM) and Yogi Ferrell(minus-0.2), Sacramento is the only team without a single player projected better than league average by RPM. So the Kings come in just behind Atlanta with the league's lowest average wins.
 

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Scouting Team USA: Early races for future NBA draft classes



COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo. -- After scouting the top prospects across future NBA draft classes at this year's USA Basketball junior team minicamp, here are our biggest takeaways -- including the race for the 2020 No. 1 draft pick and a budding star who could usher in the end of one-and-done.



Who is No. 1 in 2019?

As we prepare our very first 2020 mock draft, one of the big questions we had going into this weekend revolved around the top of the 2019 high school class. Unfortunately, many of the top prospects sat out most of the camp or declined to participate altogether, far more than we've seen in past years.

Here's what we saw from the current contenders for No. 1:

James Wiseman

The consensus No. 1 prospect at the moment, Wiseman played in the first session on Friday but sat out the following four with an injury after getting manhandled by the ultra-productive and competitive Isaiah Stewart. Wiseman has all the tools you look for long term, standing 7-foot-1 with a perfectly proportioned 237-pound frame, a 7-foot-6 wingspan and impressive athletic ability. He runs the floor exceptionally, finishes around the basket automatically and displays skill inside the paint with his footwork and touch. Unfortunately, he's still much more prospect than player at the moment, as he doesn't know how to consistently use his tools on either end of the floor and often gets criticized for his lack of productivity and intensity.

Wiseman has average fundamentals and feel. He doesn't always demonstrate the type of aggressiveness or grit you'd like to see from someone with his talent. With the declining value NBA teams are placing on big men -- especially those who don't pass, shoot 3s or block shots consistently -- there are real questions about him being No. 1-pick caliber, but the lack of attractive alternatives will likely keep him there in the short term.

The buzz in Colorado Springs is that his former high school coach, Penny Hardaway, is in pole position to land his commitment at Memphis.

Cole Anthony

The No. 2 player in the ESPN 100, Anthony elected to schedule his SAT exam for this weekend. Despite arriving on Saturday, he declined to participate in either session on Sunday.

An explosive athlete with a real competitive streak, Anthony rose to the top of his class with an extremely productive spring and summer on the EYBL circuit, looking not all that dissimilar to Collin Sexton at the same age. He put up dominant numbers (27 PPG, 7 RPG) but was inefficient offensively, finishing with a negative assist-to-turnover ratio and leading his team to a disappointing sub-500 record. After an average showing at the FIBA Americas U18 Championship, Anthony could have answered some questions in Colorado Springs about his perimeter shooting, feel for the game and ability to play winning basketball.

We'll have to wait and continue to gather information in his senior year (he transferred to Oak Hill) and his likely lone season in college (he's still undecided) to draw more definitive conclusions about the extent of his NBA upside. His scoring instincts, alpha-dog mindset and willingness to work on the defensive end will certainly keep his name high on draft boards.

Vernon Carey

Carey (No. 3 in the ESPN 100) seemingly looks less and less attractive as an NBA prospect every time we scout him. He has worked hard to get into better shape after ballooning up to almost 280 pounds this summer, but he still lags in the way of defensive versatility with his lack of length, rim-protection prowess and agility in space. He seemed intent on showing his face-up ability at this camp, settling for jump shot after jump shot, with mostly mixed results.

Carey will unquestionably be an offensive force at the college level, as he's arguably the most polished and skilled big man in the class, but it's not clear at all if he's what the modern NBA is looking for.

Isaiah Stewart

There are a number of contenders looking to propel themselves into the conversation for the top player in the class, some of whom had very strong showings here, including Stewart (ranked No. 4).

He handily won his head-to-head matchup with Wiseman on Friday and continues to win scouts over with his trimmed frame, tremendous competitiveness and improved skill level and athleticism. He was the only top prospect to not skip a single session -- despite battling outright exhaustion by the end of the weekend. He's passing and shooting the ball as well as he ever has, and he has even shown some flashes of being able to switch on pick-and-rolls and slide his feet on the perimeter. There isn't a harder-working player in high school basketball, and there is little doubt he would be top choice if you asked college coaches to pick a player to have on their roster for a season or two.

Stewart isn't blessed with elite height for a center, standing just 6-foot-9 in shoes, and he's not the most fluid or agile athlete. His massive 7-foot-4 wingspan, elite work ethic and toughness should help, even if he projects as more of a terrific role player than a star who can carry a team offensively or anchor a defense. Continuing to improve his shooting ability will certainly help his cause, and he showed some interesting flashes in that area this weekend.

Jaden McDaniels

McDaniels (ranked No. 5) emerged as another potential candidate for consideration as the top long-term prospect in the class this spring and summer with an impressive showing on the Nike EYBL circuit with Seattle Rotary Style. McDaniels is a unique combo-forward prospect because of his size (6-foot-11 in shoes), fluidity, scoring instincts, multipositional defensive versatility and aggressiveness. He has strong ballhandling skills for a player his height, looking at his best when pushing the ball off the defensive glass and using his long strides, polished footwork and ability to change speeds to get to the rim. His jump shot is still very streaky, but it shows potential, and he's tough defensively, unafraid to throw his body around and embrace contact, particularly on the glass.

McDaniels didn't have a dominant weekend by any stretch, at times struggling to pick his spots and not being overly efficient with his shot selection and decision making. He appears to be at an earlier stage in his development than most players in his class, and there is some projection involved with envisioning how his game will evolve once he's able to put some weight on his frame, improve his basketball IQ through better coaching and gain confidence in his unique versatility on both ends of the floor. -- Givony


Two-way competitors shine
While the top of the 2019 class remains wide open, there's a common theme among prospects who are climbing the rankings and should quickly earn fans in NBA front offices: two-way competitors with positional fit.

Explosive, long-armed 2019 wings Scottie Lewis and Kahlil Whitney led the charge, with 17-year-old do-it-all forward Scottie Barnes putting his imprint on the 2020 class.

The 6-foot-5, 18-year-old Lewis -- who recently committed to Florida -- is a next-level athlete who plays with a relentless motor, using his quickness and 6-foot-11 wingspan to check multiple positions and wreak havoc in transition. A rigid ballhandler and sometimes shaky decision maker, Lewis is making strides as a spot-up shooter (career 33.3 percent) and adds value as a cutter, slasher and offensive rebounder when his jumper isn't falling.

Lewis has taken baby steps in his development each time we've evaluated him, a testament to his approach to the game. Whether he's playing above the rim, taking on defense or handing out waters to his teammates on the bench, Lewis is the type of high-intangible, competitive prospect NBA teams will want to invest in long term, even if he doesn't project as a high-level shot creator.

Whitney, a 2019 Kentucky commit, has a physical profile built for the NBA at 6-foot-6 with a shredded frame, a near 7-foot wingspan and plus athleticism. The 17-year-old compares favorably to Jason Richardson physically. Given his NBA body, length and extreme competitiveness, Whitney has the tools and mentality to check four positions in the SEC and likely at least three in the NBA. He plays in a stance, gets through screens and makes plays off the ball. Offensively, Whitney plays a simple game, getting out in transition, knocking down spot 3s with time and space, rising into pull-ups or attacking the rim in a straight line. Like Lewis, he struggles to put the ball on the deck and isn't the savviest facilitator, but Whitney has scoring instincts and an affinity for making shots when the lights come on. He impacts the game in a variety of ways already and still has so much more room to polish his game, giving him a great combination of floor and ceiling.

Then there's Barnes, the most unique of the trio. He has elite physical tools at 6-foot-8 with a monster 210-pound frame, 7-foot-2 wingspan and a near 9-foot standing reach, comparing to prospects such as Al-Farouq Aminu and Jerami Grant. The Florida native loves to get after it on the defensive end, guarding nearly all five positions and flying around for blocks, steals and rebounds. Barnes battled through a knee injury, playing all three days while bringing a level of intensity the camp was lacking at times. Players gravitate toward his joyful nature, and NBA scouts are sure to fall in love with his mentality.

However, he's a non-shooter who doesn't show much potential to improve at this stage, with side spin and unconventional shooting mechanics. He also lacks a degree of pop as a leaper, relying more on his size and length than sheer athleticism. His lack of shooting hampers his upside a bit, but Barnes is an excellent ball handler and passer, which allows him to space the floor with his playmaking, even operating as a facilitating 4/5 in the future. Barnes looks the part of a high-floor, future lottery pick once the 2021 draft rolls around.

Tennessee-bound Josiah James and Duke commit Wendell Moore are also prospects to keep an eye on in this mold. James is a strong-framed, 6-foot-6 playmaking wing with feel, toughness and defensive versatility. Moore -- who stands 6-foot-5, 215 pounds with a 6-foot-11 wingspan -- defends with physicality, knows how to play and is improving as a shooter. -- Schmitz
 

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Question marks atop 2020 class


Similar conversations around the lack of top-end talent in the 2019 class were had about the 2020 group of high school juniors, which should make up the bulk of the 2021 NBA draft lottery. It didn't help that two of the top five prospects according to the ESPN 60 -- Jalen Johnson and Anthony Edwards -- weren't in attendance, while No. 2 ranked Jalen Green participated in only the first of five sessions.

No. 1-ranked Evan Mobley was in the building and a full participant, giving us ample opportunity to evaluate him after an extensive viewing this summer at the FIBA U17 Basketball World Cup in Argentina. Mobley appears to be inching closer to 7 feet, with a massive 7-foot-4 wingspan and 9-foot standing reach, even if his lanky, 192-pound frame still has a long ways to fill out. He's a rangy athlete who is quick off his feet and covers ground exceptionally well, utilizing polished footwork and terrific touch in the post, plus excellent instincts getting on the glass and rotating for blocks. He's creative with his finishes and shows potential shooting the ball from the perimeter and solid passing, as well.

The biggest questions revolve around his extremely narrow frame and high center of gravity, which makes him a target for stronger, more physical players in the post and renders him fairly upright on the perimeter defensively. He's not the most assertive player around, lacking a degree of aggressiveness and toughness at times. Mobley is on a different development curve than most, as a late bloomer with exceptional natural talent, so it's fair to be patient with him. He's technically old enough to be eligible for the 2020 draft should he choose to reclassify.

Other contenders for consideration as top prospects in the class who participated in this camp include the likes of Scottie Barnes, B.J. Boston, Greg Brown and Terrence Clarke.

Boston looks the part physically and then some, standing 6-foot-6 in shoes with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, an intriguing frame and tremendous fluidity athletically. He had some outstanding moments gliding up the court and using polished footwork to cover ground to either get into his smooth pull-up or make his way to the rim for creative finishes. While his release is on the low side, he has excellent natural touch and made quite a few tough jumpers. He gets in the passing lanes prolifically but is still figuring out how to bring consistent intensity defensively, and he has quite a bit of work to do on his lanky frame, getting knocked off-balance fairly regularly. Boston is far from a finished product but unquestionably has significant upside to tap into long term.

Brown might be the best athlete of any of the 86 players to suit up this weekend, as he has added some height and bulk, grown into his frame and found an extra gear of explosiveness that led to some highlight reel moments. His feel and overall skill level remain a work in progress, but he showed a quick first step and dropped in just enough jumpers to indicate that his shot is far from broke. Brown has tremendous potential defensively, as well, having the size to contain most big men and the quickness to stay in front of guards. It will be interesting to see if he can continue to improve his instincts the way someone such as Aaron Gordon did over time.

Terrence Clarke is a 2021 prospect at the moment but could elect to rejoin his original 2020 high school class. He played with the older group of prospects (juniors and seniors) exclusively this weekend and looked very comfortable doing so, showing that he would be just as highly regarded if he indeed decided to reclassify before he graduates and enters college. Clarke has a tremendous physical profile for a wing with great size, long arms and a terrific frame, and he's a smooth and fluid athlete to match. He is equally comfortable shooting the ball off the dribble as he is with his feet set, and he showed significant potential with the ball in his hands, as well, changing speeds instinctually and finding the open man on a consistent basis. He has a very mature approach to his game and the type of basketball IQ you like to see from someone who just turned 17. -- Givony

Emoni Bates headlines likely first crop of prospects post-one-and-done era


With the 2022 NBA draft potentially featuring high schoolers for the first time since 2005, evaluating the camp's youngest class held a little more importance than usual, and 14-year-old forward Emoni Bates looks like the ideal prospect to end the one-and-done era with a bang.

The 6-foot-8 Bates turned heads all weekend, looking the part of a potential future No. 1 pick. Although you never want to jump the gun on a player so young, Bates appears to be the rare exception. A head-at-the-rim athlete with the agility of a wing and handle of a guard, Bates was also the camp's best shooter, cashing contested pull-up 3s with such fluidity and confidence that it was hard not to liken him to a young Kevin Durant. The majority of lean wing prospects model their games after Durant, but Bates -- who averaged 40 PPG as a seventh-grader and skipped his eighth-grade season to train -- has the talent to back it up.



"We're both skinny, lanky, we can both score," Bates said of Durant. "We're skinny, but we're wiry strong."

The Michigan native also has a sound feel for the game and went through drills with energy and personality. He came into the camp as the top eighth-grader in the nation, already with an AAU team to his name (Bates Fundamentals), with several class of 2022 prospects whispering "overrated" amongst themselves, some even challenging Bates on social media. Bates answered the call in a big way, shining as the top long-term prospect regardless of age.

NBA teams -- which weren't allowed to scout this event -- will undoubtedly start doing their homework on Bates, as he showed flashes of franchise-changing potential. Of course, a lot can change between now and the 2022 draft. We've seen highly touted young prospects fail to live up to expectations time and time again. Allonzo Trier was billed as the top 13-year-old in the country. He spent three years in college and went undrafted last June.

The attention that comes along with being as talented as Bates could change even the mentally strongest teenage phenoms, which is a big reason why we often wait to dive too deep into players this age. But Bates is simply too talented to ignore. -- Schmitz



Five 2021-2022 standouts


Max Christie (2021, 6-5, SG): One of the more intriguing long-term guard prospects here, Christie impressed with his smooth shooting stroke, fluid athleticism and physical potential. He sports a picturesque catch-and-shoot 3-ball with excellent shot preparation and touch. Christie can stand to get tougher defensively and as a finisher, but he has an excellent combination of skills, tools and mentality.

Patrick Baldwin (2021, 6-8, PF): The 15-year-old forward caught our eye thanks to his natural size and shooting stroke at 6-foot-8. With strong legs and impressive agility, Baldwin has excellent size for a modern big man yet the skill set of a perimeter player.

Paolo Banchero (2021, 6-9, PF/C): Banchero shined thanks to his physical style and overall feel for the game. He competes on the glass, plays through contact and has touch in the paint while also showing potential as a shooter. With average length and not much room to develop physically, Banchero's traditional upside might be a bit limited, but he's a high-floor prospect likely to maximize his potential.

Jalen Duren (2022, 6-8, C): With outstanding length, a strong yet projectable frame, solid agility and an excellent motor, Duren proved to be one of the most intriguing long-term big man prospects at the camp. He is still at a very early stage of development physically, and he trips over his huge feet at times, but he has the energy level you like to see from a young big. Duren also sports sound shooting mechanics and a decent feel for the game.

Dariq Whitehead (2022, 6-6, G): The youngest player at the camp, Whitehead was also the best all-around athlete. He is dynamic in transition, can make a spot 3 despite a slow release and plays with considerable swagger for his age. His skill set could use polish, but he holds tremendous upside. -- Schmitz
 

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NBA mock draft: How to watch our top prospects this month

The college basketball season tipoff always brings great anticipation in the form of highly intriguing matchups that help set the tone for how the NBA draft ultimately shapes up in June.

Along with a new mock draft, we've compiled a list of the best matchups for the top prospects from this list in the month of November, with a heavy emphasis on specifically what NBA executives will be watching.

2019 NBA mock draft
Pick
Player Team POS HT WT Age
1. ATL
R.J. Barrett Duke SF 6-7 208 18.3
2. CLE Nassir Little North Carolina SF 6-6 215 18.7
3. PHX Zion Williamson Duke PF 6-6 272 18.3
4. ORL Cam Reddish Duke SF 6-9 205 19.1
5. CHI Romeo Langford Indiana SF 6-6 202 19.0
6. ATL (via DAL) Quentin Grimes Kansas SF 6-6 207 18.4
7. NYK Keldon Johnson Kentucky SF 6-6 210 19.0
8. BKN Sekou Doumbouya Limoges PF 6-9 210 17.8
9. WAS Darius Garland Vanderbilt PG 6-3 173 18.7
10. BOS (via SAC) Bol Bol Oregon C 7-2 222 18.9
11. BOS (via MEM) De'Andre Hunter Virginia PF 6-8 222 20.9
12. MIN Rui Hachimura Gonzaga PF 6-9 234 20.7
13. DET Eric Paschall Villanova PF 6-8 260 22.0
14. MIA Daniel Gafford Arkansas C 6-10 223 20.0
15. NOP Herb Jones Alabama SF 6-8 200 20.0
16. HOU Ja Morant Murray St PG 6-3 170 19.2
17. LAL P.J. Washington Kentucky PF 6-8 223 20.2
18. SAS Jarrett Culver Texas Tech SG 6-5 190 19.7
19. BOS (via LAC) Luka Samanic Olimpija Ljubljana PF 6-11 210 18.8
20. CHA Charles Bassey Western Kentucky C 6-11 234 18.0
21. OKC Kevin Porter USC PG/SG 6-6 217 18.5
22. POR Jontay Porter Missouri C 6-11 236 18.9
23. PHI Luguentz Dort Arizona St SG 6-5 224 19.5
24. UTA Jalen Smith Maryland PF 6-10 196 18.6
25. IND Jalen Lecque Brewster Academy PG 6-4 189 18.3
26. BKN (via DEN) Nickeil Alexander-Walker Virginia Tech PG/SG 6-6 200 20.
27. BOS Jalen McDaniels San Diego St SF/PF 6-10 190 20.7
28. SAS (via TOR) Jaylen Hoard Wake Forest PF 6-9 219 19.6
29. MIL Darius Bazley N/A SF/PF 6-9 196 18.3
30. GSW Ty Jerome Virginia PG/SG 6-5 200 21.3
31. ATL Shamorie Ponds St. John's PG 6-1 175 20.3
32. ORL (via CLE) Isaiah Roby Nebraska PF 6-8 226 20.7
33. PHX Goga Bitadze Mega Bemax C 6-11 251 19.2
34. SAC (via ORL) Kris Wilkes UCLA SF/PF 6-8 205 20.1
35. PHI (via CHI) Tyus Battle Syracuse SG/SF 6-6 200 21.1
36. DAL Dedric Lawson Kansas PF 6-8 225 21.0
37. BKN (via NYK) Brandon Randolph Arizona SG 6-5 177 21.1
38. ORL (via BKN) Charles Matthews Michigan SF 6-6 180 21.9
39. CHA (via WAS) Matisse Thybulle Washington SF 6-6 201 21.6
40. PHI (via SAC) Lindell Wigginton Iowa St PG 6-2 186 20.6
41. MEM Jarrey Foster SMU SF 6-6 220 21.9
42. SAC (via MIN) Aric Holman Mississippi St. PF 6-10 225 21.3
43. DET Killian Tillie Gonzaga PF/C 6-10 230 20.5
44. MIN (via MIA) Carsen Edwards Purdue PG 6-0 196 20.6
45. NOP Brian Bowen Sydney SF 6-7 202 20.0
46. NYK (via HOU) Dean Wade Kansas St PF 6-10 225 21.9
47. ATL (via LAL) Admiral Schofield Tennessee SF/PF 6-5 238 21.6
48. SAS Ky Bowman Boston College PG 6-1 182 21.3
49. LAC Sagaba Konate West Virginia C 6-8 246 21.6
50. ATL (via CHA) Jalen Hudson Florida SG 6-5 195 22.4
51. CHA (via OKC) John Petty Alabama SF 6-6 186 19.9
52. LAC (via POR) Oshae Brissett Syracuse PF 6-8 200 20.3
53. PHI Xavier Sneed Kansas St SF 6-5 210 20.8
54. UTA James Palmer Nebraska SF 6-6 210 22.2
55. IND Markis McDuffie Wichita St SF 6-8 185 21.1
56. MIL (via DEN) Adam Mokoka Mega Bemax SG 6-5 213 20.3
57. MEM (via BOS) Udoka Azubuike Kansas C 7-0 274 19.1
58. TOR Cameron Johnson North Carolina SF/PF 6-9 210 22.6
59. SAC (via MIL) Terence Davis Mississippi SG 6-4 208 21.4
60. GSW Bruno Fernando Maryland C 6-10 233 20.2
 

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The Cosmos
NBA draft scouting guide to November basketball
Nov. 6: State Farm Champions Classic (Kansas-Michigan State, 7 p.m. | Duke-Kentucky 9:30 p.m. | ESPN)

The college basketball season starts with a huge bang, as four of the most heralded programs in college basketball meet at Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. We will have more on this doubleheader later, with quite an emphasis on the lip-smacking Duke-Kentucky matchup.

Nov. 9: Arkansas-Texas (ESPN Armed Forces Classic, 7 p.m. | ESPN)

Arkansas' Daniel Gafford gets an early test in Fort Bliss, with a strong Texas frontcourt led by prospects Jericho Sims and Jaxson Hayes. Arkansas lost quite a bit of firepower to graduation, so scouts will want to see how productive Gafford can be as a sophomore. Potential second-rounder Kerwin Roach will return from a one-game suspension for Texas.

Nov. 11: Vanderbilt-USC (9 p.m. | Pac-12 Network)

The draft's projected top point guard prospect, Vanderbilt's Darius Garland will have his hands full with 6-6 combo guard Kevin Porter, who generated quite a bit of buzz over the summer with the way he played against pros in open runs in Los Angeles. Porter injured his hand a few weeks ago, and he might not be at 100 percent for this matchup. Nevertheless, NBA teams will be out in droves to see how Garland and fellow five-star freshman running mate Simi shyttu fare in a highly intriguing matchup.

Nov. 12: Stanford-North Carolina (7 p.m. | ESPN2)

Stanford is testing itself early by flying cross-country to the Dean Dome. The matchup between Cardinal sophomore KZ Okpala and projected No. 2 pick Nassir Little should be fascinating. Keep an eye on both teams' big guards (Daejon Davis for Stanford and Coby White for UNC) who will be tasked with initiating quite a bit of offense.

Nov. 14: Michigan-Villanova (6:30 p.m. | FS1)

A rematch of last year's national championship, both teams will look very different after losing quite a bit of firepower to the NBA. Projected lottery pick Eric Paschall will be asked to step up in a major way offensively for Villanova after being a role player last season, and scouts will want to see how his extremely impressive performance at the Nike Academy in August (which won him MVP honors) translates to live competition.

Nov. 14: Marquette-Indiana (8:30 p.m. | FS1)

All eyes will be on Indiana freshman Romeo Langford in his first crack at serious college competition. He'll be going up against a highly skilled Marquette team that is also right on the cusp of being ranked in the top 25, which should lead to an entertaining contest.

Nov. 15: UConn-Syracuse, Iowa-Oregon (7 p.m., 9:30 p.m. | ESPN2) | Winners/losers games on Nov. 16

The 2K Empire Classic at Madison Square Garden will be well-attended by NBA scouts as it serves as the official unveiling of projected top-10 pick Bol Bol of Oregon against major college competition. He'll have a good matchup in his first game on the 15th against Tyler Cook and Jack Nunge of Iowa, and he will then face off either against UConn or Syracuse. We'll also monitor potential first-rounder Tyus Battle of Syracuse.

Nov. 15, 16, 18: Charleston Classic

Games on Nov. 15: Ball State-Virginia Tech (11:30 a.m.) | Alabama-Northeastern (2 p.m.) | Purdue-Appalachian State (5 p.m.) | Wichita State-Davidson (7:30 p.m.) | ESPN2/ESPNU

The Charleston Classic is a sneakily interesting tournament to check in on, as it will give NBA scouts a chance to see how sophomore Herb Jones of Alabama is progressing on both ends of the floor. His ability to defend point guards at 6-7 with a 7-foot wingspan will be put to the test in all three games he plays, with the likes of Northeastern's Vasa Pusica (potential CAA player of the year), projected first-round pick Nickeil Alexander-Walker of Virginia Tech, player of the year candidate Carsen Edwards of Purdue and Davidson's Kellan Grady (Atlantic 10 freshman of the year) all in the field.

Nov. 18: Indiana-Arkansas (3:30 p.m. | ESPN)

Indiana isn't shying away from early-season competition, going straight from their Gavitt Tipoff Game against Marquette to a tough road contest against Arkansas. Daniel Gafford will give Romeo Langford a real test inside the paint with his NBA-caliber physical tools, the likes of which he might not see again all season long.

Nov. 19: Nebraska-Missouri State, USC-Texas Tech (7 p.m., 9:30 p.m. | ESPN2) | Winners/losers games on Nov. 20

The Hall of Fame Classic in Kansas City will draw a fair share of NBA executives. This is the best opportunity scouts will have to watch Texas Tech sophomore Jarrett Culver in the month of November, and it just so happens that he'll be going up against another highly touted guard prospect in USC's Kevin Porter. Nebraska awaits one of those two teams, pending the first night's results, and many scouts will stay to see how potential first-rounder Isaiah Roby fares.

Nov. 19-21: Maui Invitational

Games on Nov. 19: Auburn-Xavier (2:30 p.m.) | Duke-San Diego State (5 p.m.) | Arizona-Iowa State (9 p.m.) | Gonzaga-Illinois (11:30 p.m.) | ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU

Maui could very well have the best overall field of teams in the early-season tournament slate, and the long flight to Hawaii won't deter scouts from watching this loaded group. This is the best opportunity NBA teams will have to evaluate Rui Hachimura and Gonzaga in the month of November, and the fact that teams can also get eyes on the likes of San Diego State's Jalen McDaniels, Illinois' Ayo Dosunmu and the trio of Duke No. 1-pick candidates (R.J. Barrett, Zion Williamson and Cam Reddish) makes this arguably the highlight of the month from a scouting perspective.

Nov. 21, 23: NIT Season Tip-Off (Kansas-Marquette, 7 p.m. | Louisville-Tennessee, 9:30 p.m. | ESPN)

This event has been in existence since 2007, but there's an argument to be made that this is the strongest field the event has ever had, with two top-five teams in Kansas and Tennessee potentially matching up the day after Thanksgiving in the Barclays Center. Kansas freshman Quentin Grimes is the big prize from a scouting perspective, but teammates Devon Dotson and Dedric Lawson will also draw plenty of attention. This is a great opportunity for Tennessee's prospects -- Admiral Schofield, Grant Williams and Yves Pons -- to benefit from the exposure of a marquee game in New York City.

Nov. 22: UNC-Texas, Michigan State-UCLA (7:30 p.m., 10 p.m. | FS1) | Winners/losers games on Nov. 23

The Continental Tire Invitational at Orleans Casino has assembled a nice group of blue-blood programs to attract fans and NBA executives to spend their Thanksgiving in Las Vegas. Little will have a big crowd of scouts watching him every time he steps on the floor, and UCLA sophomores Kris Wilkes and Jaylen Hands would benefit from a matchup with the Tar Heels if they can get past Michigan State.

Nov. 22/23/25: Advocare Invitational

Games on Nov. 22: Villanova-Canisius (1:30 p.m.) | Memphis-Oklahoma State (4 p.m.) | LSU-Charleston (7 p.m.) | Florida State-UAB (9 p.m.) | ESPN/ESPN2/ESPNU

Villanova is likely to attract a strong contingent of fans to spend their Thanksgiving at Disney World watching them defend their national championship. LSU has a couple of interesting freshmen to watch in Naz Reid, Emmitt Williams and Darius Days, and if they are able to advance to a dream championship game against Villanova, many NBA executives will make the trek to Orlando to see how they fare against Eric Paschall and the Wildcats.

Nov. 26: Murray State-Alabama (8 p.m. | SEC Network/ESPN+)

Murray State's Ja Morant propelled himself onto the NBA radar with a strong freshman season followed by an outstanding showing at the CP3 camp this summer. Scouts will want to see how he fares against a long and athletic defender like Alabama's Jones, as he's unlikely to see a defender in that mold during Murray State's Ohio Valley Conference slate.

Nov. 27: Indiana-Duke (9:30 p.m. | ESPN)

Indiana's Langford will be thrown into the fire of Cameron Indoor Stadium as part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, a difficult game that will likely see him matching up against the likes of Barrett, Reddish and possibly even Williamson at times as part of this marquee game. This is a rare opportunity to see these star freshmen matching up against other NBA-caliber athletes.

Nov. 28: Virginia-Maryland (7:15 p.m. | ESPN/ESPN2)

A historic rivalry dating back to 1913 (and 182 contests) resumes thanks to the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, and four prospects vying for first-round consideration are taking part in it. The matchup at power forward between Virginia redshirt sophomore De'Andre Hunter and Maryland freshman Jalen Smith is particularly notable, despite the two players being at very different stages of their development curve, while also offering contrasting styles of play. Scouts will want to see how UVa's big point guard Ty Jerome handles himself in a competitive road game against a long and athletic Maryland frontcourt led by sophomore Bruno Fernando.

Nov. 28: North Carolina-Michigan (9:30 p.m. | ESPN)

The final game of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge sees UNC travel to Ann Arbor to take on last year's national championship game finalist. North Carolina's Little will have his hands full with Michigan redshirt junior Charles Matthews, who's exactly the type of long-armed, chiseled, defensive-minded combo forward who could shed real insight into where Little is at with his ball-handling and playmaking skill. Also keep an eye on the backcourt matchup between UNC freshman Coby White and Michigan sophomore Jordan Poole. Both are highly skilled combo guards who can score from all over the floor and could draw NBA interest as early as this spring depending on the type of seasons they have.
 
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