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When is the best time for Washington to trade John Wall?
NBA teams remain uncertain about the trade bonus in John Wall's contract, league sources confirmed to ESPN. As Adrian Wojnarowski reported earlier this month, the All-Star point guard -- along with the rest of the Washington Wizards' roster -- is available to discuss in trade scenarios.
Interest in Wall is close to nonexistent around the league, per sources. Still, teams are going through the complicated exercise of trying to understand how a Wall trade would even work.
"There is a 99 percent chance that we would not trade for Wall, but I need to be prepared for that 1 percent," one team executive told ESPN.
Here's what's going on behind the scenes, both for opposing teams and the Wizards.
Breaking down the bonus
The bonus calls for Wall to be paid 15 percent of what is owed on his contract if he's traded.
If Wall were dealt now, the trade kicker theoretically could include his remaining $14.3 million for this season and $123.6 million of his supermax that is set to begin in 2019-20 -- resulting in an extra $20.68 million. (Wall's $47.3 million player option for 2022-23 is excluded here.)
For salary-cap purposes, $5.17 million would be added to each season of Wall's deal for the team acquiring him (excluding 2022-23), but Washington would be on the hook to pay Wall the full amount in a lump sum that would surpass his 2018-19 salary.
For salary-matching purposes in a trade, Wall's contract would be considered $24.3 million of outgoing money for a new team and $19.2 million for Washington:
Wall contract with supermax trade kicker
Year Salary Bonus Total
2018-19 $19.16 $5.17 $24.33
2019-20 $38.15 $5.17 $43.32
2020-21 $41.20 $5.17 $46.37
2021-22 $44.25 $5.17 $49.42
2022-23 $47.30 N/A $47.30*
Overall: $210.74
*Player option; all salary/bonus figures in millions
Why the confusion?
Here's the sticking point: There's no way for Wall to receive that $20.68 million without surpassing the maximum salary threshold in the collective bargaining agreement.
Supermax rules prohibit the first year of a contract from exceeding 35 percent of the salary cap, which would be the case for Wall's deal with an extra $5.17 million next season. But Wall would also exceed the max salary this season by applying the full amount of his bonus to 2018-19.
There's no precedent for this, and it's something both the league and the players' union didn't see coming during CBA negotiations. After all, the goal of the high-priced supermax was to give teams a clear path to retain franchise players long term -- not trade them before the extension even begins.
Of course, Wall could elect to waive the trade bonus, and the situation would be resolved. The Wizards also could wait to trade him until after July 1, and the bonus would be voided, since he'll be making the maximum possible salary by that point.
The likely outcome
If Wall is traded this season, the consensus among teams consulted by ESPN is that his 15 percent bonus will only be applied to the remaining salary owed in 2018-19. That's $2.1 million -- paid by Washington but falling on the new team's cap sheet -- which would be added to Wall's $19.2 million as outgoing salary.
There would be no additional salary added to the three years of his supermax extension:
Wall contract with 2018-19 trade kicker
Year Salary Bonus Total
2018-19 $19.16 $2.14 $21.30
2019-20 $38.15 N/A $38.15
2020-21 $41.20 N/A $41.20
2021-22 $44.25 N/A $44.25
2022-23 $47.30 N/A $47.30*
Overall: $191.2
*Player option; all salary/bonus figures in millions
With Wall on the trade block, expect the league and the union to eventually provide clarity here.
The closing trade window
The trade market for Wall will not get better this summer, despite 12 teams having at least $25 million in projected cap space.
Here are two questions that I asked league executives regarding Wall's trade value.
1. If the guard were a free agent in 2019, would you sign him to a four-year, $171 million contract (his supermax deal)?
2. Is the Wall contract tradable in the offseason?
There was a clear consensus on both questions: No.
"Granted, every player in this league can be traded, but the Wall extension right now is the toughest contract I have seen a team try to move in 20 years," one team executive told ESPN. "I couldn't look my owner in the eye and tell him there is value with the player even if we didn't have to trade anything of significance."
Front offices have learned from their mistakes of overspending in 2016, and they're likely to take a conservative approach when committing to long-term salary. Yes, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Kyrie Irving and Kawhi Leonard will likely get max deals, but there's more fear this time around about overpaying borderline stars and starters.
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Despite the salary cap being projected to increase from $101.8 million to $109 million in 2019 and then $118 million in 2020, teams do not have an appetite for tying up 35 percent of their money in a point guard who has carried a heavy workload (35.9 MPG since 2010-11) without signs of future franchise-player-level production.
So even with the uncertainty surrounding Wall's trade bonus, his current $19.2 million salary is more movable than when it spikes to $38.2 million in July. Not only will teams balk at trading Wall into their cap space, but the capped out teams will also be stuck. Around 49 percent of NBA players are projected to be free agents this summer. Cobbling together $30.5 million in contracts to facilitate a Wall trade is next to impossible.
If there is an outside chance for Washington to move Wall, it is before the Feb. 7 trade deadline to a team that views Wall as an All-Star and has a void at point guard. The Phoenix Suns might be the only team that fits. (Keep in mind the Boston Celtics and Minnesota Timberwolves are prohibited from trading for Wall this season while they have players -- Kyrie Irving, Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins -- on similar designated rookie extensions.)
What approach should the front office take?
There is a for-sale sign attached to the Wizards' roster, but Washington is only 1.5 games out of the Eastern Conference playoffs despite an 8-13 record. If general manager Ernie Grunfeld is thinking short term, a weak conference will allow his team to stay in the postseason hunt despite underachieving early. That line of thinking would be buoyed by the belief that making the playoffs would dispel the cloud hanging over this franchise.
Having been in a similar situation in Brooklyn with Deron Williams, that does not work.
There was a trade proposal in December 2013 that would have given the Nets much-needed future cap relief without improving the basketball product. At the time, Brooklyn was 8-15, had the highest payroll in the NBA and looked listless in losses -- similar to what is going on in Washington.
Instead, the offer was turned down and Brooklyn averaged 41 wins in 2013-14 and 2014-15, reaching the playoffs but not advancing further than the second round. Williams was bought out of his contract in July 2015.
The lesson learned? Thinking big picture outweighs being mediocre. If a future-friendly offer for Wall emerges, the Wizards should take it.
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Revisiting preseason concerns for all 32 NFL teams
Every NFL team had something to worry about entering this 2018 season.
Three months after league execs shared their No. 1 concern for each team, we revisit every preseason worry to see which ones stuck and which ones dissipated like a 23-7 halftime lead for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Worries that really were worrisome
Arizona Cardinals
The worry: Continued offensive-line troubles and two quarterbacks with durability/performance concerns could be a rough combination.
The reality: Upsetting the Packers at Lambeau Field should temporarily ease the sting of a Cardinals season defined by poor play from the offensive line and poor production from the offense in general, including the quarterbacks.
Losing center A.Q. Shipley to a season-ending injury in camp turned a difficult situation dire. Three other linemen have landed on injured reserve since then, including free-agent addition Justin Pugh. Right tackle Andre Smith struggled, and he was released after making eight starts.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals finished Week 13 ranked last in Total QBR, with passing stats worse than the ones the 2012 team produced when John Skelton, Kevin Kolb and Ryan Lindley were the primary starters.
Atlanta Falcons
The worry: Having a veteran offensive line can be great, but after Andy Levitre (32) and Ryan Schraeder (30) missed games last season, there are concerns too.
The reality: Levitre landed on injured reserve after two games. The line took another hit when its other starting guard, 30-year-old Brandon Fusco, suffered a season-ending injury after starting the first seven games. The weakened offensive line has contributed to an offensive downturn in recent weeks. The Falcons ranked eighth in offensive points per game through Week 8. They ranked 21st in that category from Weeks 9-13.
Baltimore Ravens
The worry: Not having the quarterback or weaponry to keep pace against the league's best.
An exec thought Baltimore could grind out victories with its defense when Joe Flacco avoided turnovers, but not against the higher-scoring teams, including the NFC South opponents on the Ravens' schedule this season.
The reality: Baltimore has improved on offense, fitting in near the middle of the pack in ESPN's efficiency metric after ranking 27th from 2015 to 2017. However, the improvement has not been enough for the Ravens to keep pace with the better teams.
The Ravens have a 1-2 record against the NFC South and an 0-4 mark when their opponents exceed 21 points.
From 2008 to 2012, when Flacco was on his rookie contract, the Ravens ranked sixth with an 11-18 record in games when their opponents exceeded 21 points. They were 10th in offensive efficiency and first on defense during those years. That mark has fallen to 6-38 (26th) since 2013, including 2018 defeats to Carolina, Cincinnati, New Orleans and Pittsburgh. The Ravens have been 23rd in offensive efficiency (seventh on defense) over that span.
Buffalo Bills
The worry: A trade made in conjunction with setting up the Bills' quarterback future could hurt them in the present.
The reality: The moves Buffalo made in positioning itself to get Josh Allen cost the team left tackle Cordy Glenn and two second-round picks, among other considerations. That will be a small price to pay if Allen becomes what the Bills hope he will become. In the short term, however, subtracting those resources made it tougher to support a rookie quarterback, especially with Allen producing at a lower level than Tyrod Taylor produced.
Cleveland Browns
The worry: It could be difficult turning a bunch of acquisitions into a cohesive unit in an environment featuring some strong personalities.
The reality: Those strong personalities did not mesh well enough. Owner Jimmy Haslam cited "internal discord" as a leading reason the Browns fired head coach Hue Jackson after eight games. It's a little early to know whether the veteran player acquisitions -- Jarvis Landry comes to mind -- will help form a cohesive unit longer term.
Cincinnati Bengals
The worry: The Bengals risked shifting too much of the burden onto a Tier 3 quarterback.
The reality: Andy Dalton was enjoying a strong season until some of the pieces around him began falling apart. With the defense dropping off unexpectedly, the Bengals needed Dalton to do more than could be realistically expected.
Detroit Lions
The worry: Not having the pass rush to cover for a problem that hasn't been addressed well enough.
The reality: The Lions rank 29th in how frequently they've gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks (25 percent of the time). They rank 31st in opponent passer rating allowed (110.8) and 28th in expected points added on pass defense. The cornerback slot opposite Darius Slay remains a question mark.
Green Bay Packers
The worry: There are no guarantees Green Bay has fixed its cornerback conundrum.
The reality: Green Bay defensive passing game coordinator Joe Whitt recently said he thought Jaire Alexander and Kevin King could become another Charles Woodson/Al Harris corner combination for the Packers. Alexander has been outstanding, but King has nearly as many games missed (13) as games played (15) during his two NFL seasons. Harris did not miss a game during his first five seasons with Green Bay. Woodson missed three in his first six seasons with the team.
Houston Texans
The worry: The trade for Deshaun Watson makes it harder to protect Deshaun Watson.
The reality: Houston obviously has no regrets in trading away its 2018 first-round pick to Cleveland for the 2017 choice used to select Watson, even though that 2018 pick wound up being the fourth overall choice. The preseason worry was simply that the Texans' offensive line would not be strong enough to protect Watson adequately, in part because the team had given up significant draft capital to acquire him.
The line has indeed been a concern. Watson has taken too many hits -- some from running with the ball and otherwise holding it for extended periods, others from protection problems. It hasn't stopped the Texans from becoming one of the NFL's hottest teams over the past two months, but it has made life painful for Watson, especially earlier in the season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The worry: Could a brash, young team handle success well enough to take the next step? One exec asked whether "the young guys can become professionals" this season.
The reality: There are obvious football reasons behind the Jaguars' struggles, but this season will be remembered for the large gap between Jalen Ramsey's trash talk and his team's performance, plus the suspension Leonard Fournette drew for fighting.
Los Angeles Rams
The worry: If it's not age on the line, it's life on the edge.
The reality: While the Rams' aging offensive line has generally held up so far, the team's need for an edge rusher persisted even as the Rams kept winning games. The front office acted by trading a 2019 third-round pick to Jacksonville for edge rusher Dante Fowler Jr.
Miami Dolphins
The worry: The Dolphins could be inconsistent while relying on lots of really old guys and lots of really young guys.
The reality: The 30-something veterans of Daniel Kilgore, Josh Sitton and William Hayes combined to play eight games before landing on injured reserve. Danny Amendola missed the Dolphins' game on Sunday. Another older player, guard Ted Larsen, 31, missed two recent starts. Some of the young players have met or exceeded expectations, including Xavien Howard and Laremy Tunsil, but the case can be made that some other young players have not ascended as needed, including Cordrea Tankersley, Raekwon McMillan and Mike Gesicki.
Minnesota Vikings
The worry: Kirk Cousins won't be as adept as Case Keenum at covering for a position of weakness.
The reality: Cousins' 5.6 percent sack rate marks a big increase from the 2.0 percent rate for Keenum to the same point in 2017. ESPN's charting showed pressure rates to be similar for both quarterbacks, suggesting Keenum really did bail out the Vikings' leaky offensive line more than Cousins has been able to do so. Cousins has upgraded the offense in other ways, but this particular concern appears to have been valid.
New England Patriots
The worry: Counting on so many players with elevated injury risks will be tough even for a future Hall of Fame coach.
The reality: Rob Gronkowski, Isaiah Wynn, Trey Flowers, Derek Rivers and Dont'a Hightower were among the players an exec mentioned as carrying elevated injury risks into the season. All have missed time this season. So has running back Sony Michel, the rookie first-round pick whose medical history raised questions during the draft process. The Patriots are still winning at their usual clip, but it hasn't looked as easy.
New Orleans Saints
The worry: The cornerback situation will hold back an improved defense.
The reality: Cornerback has indeed been an issue for the Saints, to the point that they sent a 2019 fourth-round pick and a 2020 seventh-rounder to the Giants for Eli Apple.
New York Giants
The worry: The magic is gone for two-time Super Bowl MVP Eli Manning, whose numbers over the past two seasons are nearly identical to the numbers for Blake Bortles.
The reality: There's room to debate how poorly Manning has played -- he has certainly been preferable to the since-benched Bortles -- but the basic worry was justified. The Giants' 4-8 record leaves them last in an underwhelming NFC East and heading toward an offseason that will presumably include the pursuit of their successor to Manning.
New York Jets
The worry: A young gunslinger at quarterback isn't a great fit for this team as it is currently configured.
The reality: First-round pick Sam Darnold is the third player since 2012 to throw interceptions on at least 4.8 percent of pass attempts in a season (minimum 250 attempts). That far exceeds the NFL's 2.5 percent interception rate over that nearly seven-season span. Darnold leads the NFL in interceptions with 14, despite missing the Jets' past three games.
Every team wants an efficient quarterback who avoids turnovers. The Jets, as a team with a defense-minded head coach and limited offensive weaponry, need one more than most.
Oakland Raiders
The worry: A talented offense might not age well.
The reality: Marshawn Lynch and Donald Penn headline the Raiders' injured-reserve list, while Jordy Nelson has battled injuries without making much of an impact. Another potential contributor over age 30, Breno Giacomini, was released before the season after struggling to get healthy. The Raiders have had all kinds of problems. An aging offense is one of them.
Philadelphia Eagles
The worry: Staying on top will be harder than getting there, especially with these changes. "They ran off some longtime Eagle guys like [Brent] Celek, [Vinny] Curry and [Mychal] Kendricks, and added some guys from other teams with storied pasts," one of the execs said before the season.
The reality: Eagles center Jason Kelce said essentially the same thing during the season, contending that the team had become less accountable after subtracting Celek and other veteran players.
San Francisco 49ers
The worry: A coach known for maximizing personnel (Kyle Shanahan) might not be able to do that in a few key cases. An exec specifically questioned whether the 49ers could get adequate return on investment from Jerick McKinnon, Pierre Garcon, Solomon Thomas and some of the defensive backs the team drafted recently.
The reality: McKinnon suffered a season-ending injury before the opener, Garcon was on the trade block in October and Thomas remains a questionable fit for the defensive scheme. Meanwhile, in the secondary, 2017 third-round pick Ahkello Witherspoon has drawn the wrong kind of attention, including criticism for waving his arms in frustration after a busted coverage enabled an Odell Beckham Jr. touchdown grab.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The worry: Efforts to improve the leadership and overall makeup of the team could be too little, too late.
The reality: Jason Pierre-Paul has brought solid play and outstanding leadership, by all accounts, but it hasn't been enough to keep the Buccaneers pointed in the right direction. The moves do seem to be of the too-little, too-late variety.
Tennessee Titans
The worry: It might be unrealistic to expect miracles from a team with a defense-minded rookie head coach and a young offensive staff.
The reality: The Titans are averaging 17.8 offensive points per game (28th), down from 20.4 last season (15th). Marcus Mariota, while 10th in yards per pass attempt, ranks 20th in Total QBR, 28th in touchdown passes, 23rd in touchdown percentage, 22nd in interception percentage and 34th (last) in sack rate. That's not what the Titans were expecting.
Worries that wound up not being so worrisome
Carolina Panthers
The worry: Not having sufficient depth to overcome issues on the offensive line.
The reality: There have been games, notably against Pittsburgh and again Sunday against Tampa Bay, in which this worry seemed like an overriding one. Overall, however, the line has outperformed expectations, with an assist from offensive coordinator Norv Turner's scheming. The Panthers' biggest problem, by far, is a defense that went from a top-10 unit to a bottom-10 unit almost overnight.
Chicago Bears
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The worry: Being unproven and unestablished at two of the most important spots in any NFL organization.
The reality: Rookie head coach Matt Nagy has gotten more from second-year quarterback Mitchell Trubisky than some thought he would. The Bears' offense has made quantum leaps in design and production. This team appears enlivened by youth, not held back by inexperience. Chicago ranks 10th in offensive points per game (25.1) after ranking 31st last season (14.2).
Dallas Cowboys
The worry: Will Dallas collect on bets it has made in the secondary?
The reality: Young defensive backs Byron Jones, Anthony Brown, Chidobe Awuzie and Xavier Woods entered the NFL as Cowboys draft choices from 2015 to 2017. Those four also rank among the top five on the team in defensive snaps by defensive backs. The group put together a signature performance against New Orleans on Thursday, the latest indication the Cowboys could be collecting on those bets in the secondary. A strong front seven with emerging talent at linebacker helps their cause.
Denver Broncos
The worry: The team's best hope for improvement in 2018 (Case Keenum) will be asked to do too much for an offense that might not have the ground game or offensive line to support him.
The reality: Phillip Lindsay's surprise emergence as a front-line running back has given Denver the ground game it needed, taking some pressure off Keenum. The rookie runner has 346 yards and five touchdowns during a three-game winning streak that has saved the Broncos' season. Keenum has ranked among the NFL's bottom five qualifying quarterbacks in Total QBR, but he has still been an upgrade over Trevor Siemian.
Indianapolis Colts
The worry: A leaky defense could make it tough for Indy to make good on its No. 1 priority of the offseason (protecting Andrew Luck).
The reality: The Indy defense has not been terrible. Meanwhile, an improved offensive line, shorter passes and a career-low scramble rate have helped spare Luck from the punishment he has taken in other seasons. Opponents have contacted Luck on 6.3 percent of his plays this season, down from between 13 and 16 percent in his other seasons. That's a big change.
Kansas City Chiefs
The worry: The combination of a young quarterback and shaky defense causes the team to regress.
The reality: Um, let's just say the combination of a young quarterback and a shaky defense has not held back the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes is indeed young. The Kansas City defense has indeed been shaky, ranking among the bottom 10 teams in ESPN's efficiency metric. But with the offense blowing away its 2017 pace, the Chiefs are 10-2 regardless. Consider: Kansas City has allowed 337 points through 12 games. The 2012 Saints allowed the same total through 12 games and had a 5-7 record to show for it, even with Drew Brees' 31 touchdown passes leading the league to that point.
Los Angeles Chargers
The worry: The quarterback reverts to 2016 form, and not enough Chargers fans are there to see it.
The reality: Philip Rivers finished that 2016 season with 33 touchdown passes and 21 interceptions during a 5-11 season. He enters Week 14 with 28 touchdowns and only six picks. His 1.6 percent interception rate would improve upon his career-best 1.7 percent rate from last season (down from a career-worst 3.6 percent in 2016). Rivers has put to rest any fears he would revert to some of his more turnover-prone seasons. As for the fears about lack of a home-field advantage, those persist, but they haven't held back the team appreciably.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The worry: A soft middle could betray a defense that led the NFL in sacks last season. "They lost Ryan Shazier, they paid [Morgan] Burnett and then they used a first-round pick on a box safety in [Terrell] Edmunds, who is just not a center-field range guy," an exec said before the season.
The reality: We could slide this one into the "worries that really were worrisome" category if we could pin the defense's low turnover production on Pittsburgh lacking athleticism up the middle. However, Pittsburgh has clearly made progress in shoring up its No. 1 defensive weakness, despite the turnover deficiency. It's not the players' fault that Pittsburgh's scheme kept matching linebackers against Chargers receiver Keenan Allen on Sunday night.
Inside linebackers Vince Williams and Jon Bostic have outperformed expectations, to the point that this defense doesn't really have a glaring weakness, other than the turnover production, which could be somewhat random.
Seattle Seahawks
The worry: The team's biggest weakness in recent seasons, its offensive line, will remain its biggest weakness.
The reality: Seattle's offensive line has gone from being a constant focus of criticism to leading a rushing revival. Mike Solari gets some of the credit as the Seahawks' new offensive line coach. Free-agent signing D.J. Fluker has provided muscle and personality (a hamstring injury suffered Sunday could set back the line overall). Left tackle Duane Brown is healthy.
Those changes, a renewed commitment to the ground game and improved personnel at running back helped Seattle set a franchise record this season by rushing for at least 150 yards in seven consecutive games.
Washington Redskins
The worry: The consistent ground game that helped Alex Smith succeed in Kansas City and San Francisco could be missing.
The reality: Adrian Peterson has given Washington consistency in the ground game. It's the other changes -- new system, less explosive weaponry -- that Smith missed before suffering a season-ending injury.
McShay's 2019 NFL Mock Draft 1.0: Two QBs in the top 10
one more, whenever you get a chance breh. thanks
@Skooby
one more, whenever you get a chance breh. thanks
@Skooby
1. Arizona Cardinals
Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State*
The Cards have a lot of needs, but getting the best player in the draft to line up opposite Chandler Jones would be a big step in the right direction. Bosa fits well with Arizona's 4-3 scheme with his power and length, and Markus Golden hits free agency after the season.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan*
The Niners are seeking an edge rusher -- among other things -- and Gary provides explosive closing burst and elite athleticism. He's a nightmare to block and would provide a jolt to San Francisco's defensive line.
3. Oakland Raiders
Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama**
Quinnen is my guy in this class. I love his first step and how disruptive he is in the middle of that Alabama line. Solid both against the run and in the pass rush, Williams would be a great get for the rebuilding Raiders, the first of three Day 1 selections.
4. New York Jets
Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson*
If I'm the Jets, I'm thinking about trading back here to address a multitude of needs, considering they don't have a second-rounder. But taking Ferrell -- who had 10.5 sacks in the regular season off the edge -- would go a long way toward checking off one of those boxes.
5. Atlanta Falcons
Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson*
The Falcons plummeted this season all the way from the playoffs to a potential top pick, and I love the idea of using it on Lawrence, a big run-stopper who can fit in next to Grady Jarrett (if he returns to the Falcons). Atlanta has one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL.
6. Buffalo Bills
Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama*
When you draft a franchise quarterback, you'd better keep him upright. Williams is a plug-and-play option with quick feet and has the versatility to play anywhere on either side of the offensive line in front of 2018 No. 7 pick Josh Allen.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon*
As the first team on the board with a big hole at quarterback (remember, no trades in this mock), it's no surprise Herbert is the pick here. He has great size and arm strength, but he'll have to iron out some consistency issues -- that is, if he declares for the draft.
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Greedy Williams, CB, LSU**
Talk about value. Greedy is my No. 2-ranked prospect but falls all to the way to the Bucs here. With three edge rushers already off the board, Tampa Bay passes up on filling a big need and goes with the best available player to shore up a weak secondary.
9. Detroit Lions
Josh Allen, DE/OLB, Kentucky
Ezekiel Ansah might be done in Detroit, so let's fill that hole with Allen, who does just about everything. He finished the regular season in the top 10 in college football in sacks, tackles for loss and forced fumbles. He'd be a beast coming off the edge in Motor City.
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10. New York Giants
Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State**
Eli Manning era is nearing an end in New York, and Haskins addresses Big Blue's most glaring need. You'd have to feel pretty good about an offense featuring Haskins, Odell Beckham Jr. and Saquon Barkley. Now the Giants just need him to declare for the draft.
11. Cincinnati Bengals
Devin White, LB, LSU*
Hunting for a three-down linebacker? Lucky for Cincy, the best one in the draft is sitting on the board at No. 11. The Bengals really want a explosive playmaker of this caliber at the second level of their defense.
12. Cleveland Browns
Ed Oliver, DT, Houston*
I could definitely see the Browns going offensive line here, but this addresses another area of weakness in a big way. Plus, Cleveland could target a left tackle in free agency. Oliver explodes out of his stance and would provide an upgrade in the interior of the line over pending free agents Trevon Coley and Carl Davis.
13. Washington Redskins
Cody Ford, OT, Oklahoma*
Alex Smith's recovery, and it definitely needs a wide receiver, but the offensive line woes are well-documented. Ford is a nasty mauler who has the versatility to play either right tackle or guard in the NFL.
14. Carolina Panthers
Greg Little, OT, Ole Miss*
Half of the Panthers' offensive line will enter free agency, and the best replacement on the board is Little. I love his athleticism in the trenches, although he still needs some technique work. But he can certainly develop into a good starting left tackle in the NFL.
15. Green Bay Packers
Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State
The Packers need a wide receiver, but getting the rangy and quick Sweat to come off the edge would do Green Bay well and provide better value. They have two first-rounders, after all, and plenty of wideouts will be on the board when the Packers pick again at No. 32.
16. Philadelphia Eagles
Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia
Baker isn't the biggest or fastest corner, but he shows the best instincts of the bunch and is a ball hawk. And you might have noticed that the defending Super Bowl champions could use a solid cornerback. Let's see what he does against those big Texas receivers in the Sugar Bowl.
17. Miami Dolphins
Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida*
Ryan Tannehill, but there isn't a QB available here worth the early pick. So let's fill another need and get the athletic Taylor to help protect whomever is under center in Miami next season.
18. Denver Broncos
Marquise Brown, WR, Oklahoma*
Demaryius Thomas is gone and Emmanuel Sanders isn't getting any younger. Brown is a burner, and the Broncos need help stretching the field, especially out of the slot. The Oklahoma receiver would fit nicely with last year's picks, Courtland Sutton and DaeSean Hamilton, in a dynamic WR group.
19. Indianapolis Colts
Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
Wilkins' versatility and instinctive play would come in handy for an Indianapolis defensive front looking for some help. He might not have the upside of fellow Clemson linemates Clelin Ferrell and Dexter Lawrence, but he has a great motor and would fit nicely with the Colts.
20. Tennessee Titans
Jachai Polite, OLB, Florida*
Derrick Morgan and Brian Orakpo will become free agents in the offseason, and Polite would be an immediate factor for Tennessee with his speed and slipperiness. His 11 sacks tied for sixth in the nation during the regular season. Imagine him bookending the linebacker corps with 2018 pick Harold Landry?
21. Baltimore Ravens
Devin Bush, ILB, Michigan*
Lamar Jackson, let's snag this underrated three-down linebacker to slide in if the Ravens decide not to pay up for pending free agent C.J. Mosley (although Bush also could play the weak side too). Bush's athleticism and instincts would jibe nicely with this superb Baltimore defense.
22. Minnesota Vikings
Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn*
Getting a prospect like this at No. 22 would be robbery. Brown is the type of pass-rushing tackle that Mike Zimmer loves, and Sheldon Richardson's one-year deal provides an opening in the interior of that Minnesota line.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers
Jaylon Ferguson, DE, Louisiana Tech
Ferguson is rising on draft boards rapidly, and I expect him to shine at January's Senior Bowl. He can really overwhelm blockers with his speed to power and would be another asset for one of the better pass-rushing teams in the NFL.
24. Seattle Seahawks
Jeffery Simmons, DT, Mississippi State*
On talent alone, this would be a heist for a team potentially losing a good deal of its defensive line to free agency in the offseason. But it's not just talent. Simmons comes with awareness and range, but he also has some off-the-field concerns.
25. Oakland Raiders (from Dallas Cowboys)
Deionte Thompson, S, Alabama*
With Quinnen Williams upgrading their front, the Raiders are freed up to boost the secondary with a real ball hawk in Thompson. It's a perfect marriage of value (No. 14 in my rankings) and need (Marcus Gilchrist is a free agent after the season, and the unit was weak to begin with).
26. Oakland Raiders (from Chicago Bears)
Noah Fant, TE, Iowa*
Man, it must be nice to have a library of first-round picks. This one, courtesy of the Khalil Mack trade, gets the Raiders a real weapon in the passing game. Jared Cook isn't signed past this season, and Derek Carr loves his tight ends. Fant is a true matchup problem for opponents.
27. Houston Texans
Michael Deiter, C/G, Wisconsin
The focus of Houston's offseason should be entirely on upgrading that offensive line to protect Deshaun Watson. Deiter might be a slight reach, but he's a proven player and anchors well with a good initial push in the running game. He has played all over, but he best projects as a guard or center at the next level.
28. Los Angeles Chargers
Jerry Tillery, DT, Notre Dame
The Chargers definitely want some support in run defense, and this big, versatile lineman can press against the run and occasionally flash as a pass-rusher. Quarterbacks aren't going to love coming out of the huddle and seeing Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram and Tillery staring them in the face.
29. New England Patriots
Dre'Mont Jones, DT, Ohio State*
Trey Flowers, Malcom Brown and Danny Shelton land on the open market after the season, so the Pats' biggest concern will be shoring up the defensive line. Jones finally put it all together this season and exhibits a good motor and quick first step.
30. Los Angeles Rams
Johnathan Abram, S, Mississippi State
Free agency could hit the Rams' defense pretty hard, so a lot of what Sean McVay does with his first-rounder will depend on how it all plays out. But Abram is a powerful finisher on the back end and would soften the potential loss of Lamarcus Joyner.
31. Kansas City Chiefs
Zach Allen, DE, Boston College
We all know the Chiefs need a corner, but I can't ignore Allen's potential impact on both the pass rush and run defense. He's just so quick to the ball. Allen Bailey is a pending free agent off the edge, so there could be an opening.
32. Green Bay Packers (from New Orleans Saints)
A.J. Brown, WR, Ole Miss*
We're getting Aaron Rodgers some help. It's about time! Brown's ability to go up and get the ball, as well as make tough catches in traffic, would be welcomed on an offense desperately looking for receiving options beyond Davante Adams.