Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)
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1. Phoenix Suns
Deandre Ayton
Arizona
Age: 19.9
C
Height: 7-foot | Weight: 243
The Suns appear to be locked in on Ayton with the top pick, though Phoenix insists no final decision has been made. Ayton makes sense here considering the way he dominated the Pac-12 while playing at Arizona. Physically, he's one of the most gifted prospects we've seen in the draft in the past few years, and he has an impressive skill level to boot.
Critics will be right to question his impact on defense for the worst defensive team in the league, but his sheer productivity and overall talent level make it difficult to not slot him at the top of this class.
Starting salary: $8,251,477
2. Sacramento Kings
Marvin Bagley III
Duke
Age: 19.2
PF/C
Height: 6-foot-11 | Weight: 234
The Kings showed progress this season and appear to have some strong building blocks in place, particularly in the backcourt. The strength of this draft is in the frontcourt, and the Kings are reportedly looking to take advantage.
While Bagley has some positional concerns defensively, his athleticism, motor, rebounding, finishing ability and overall productivity are reportedly attractive to the Kings. Bagley has terrific scoring and rebounding instincts and likely brings better shot-making potential than he showed in college with more spacing around him at the NBA level.
Starting salary: $7,382,837
3. Atlanta Hawks
Luka Doncic
Real Madrid
Age: 19.3
PG
Height: 6-foot-8 | Weight: 228
Jaren Jackson Jr. was once viewed as a lock at No. 3, but there was a strong push within the organization to consider other alternatives here as well -- specifically the star power of Doncic, who sources say is a favorite of ownership. Trading down and selecting Trae Young may end up being a compromise.
Doncic hit a bit of a wall after playing 18 straight months without a break for Real Madrid and the Slovenian national team, souring some scouts with a handful of underwhelming performances in March and April. He still found a way to help Real Madrid win the EuroLeague Final Four and was awarded MVP honors for his effort before notching a championship series victory in the ACB League in Spain.
Starting salary: $6,629,778
4. Memphis Grizzlies
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Michigan State
Age: 18.7
PF/C
Height: 6-foot-11 | Weight: 240
The Grizzlies are listening to trade offers involving this pick and potentially Chandler Parsons, but a deal still seems unlikely at this stage. There is significant excitement in the Memphis organization about the type of talent that can be added at No. 4. The Grizzlies will be happy to select whichever prospect falls to them at this slot, barring a huge trade proposal.
Jackson will be able to see some minutes playing power forward alongside the highly skilled Marc Gasol, as well as behind him at center. As the youngest player projected to be drafted, Jackson might have the highest ceiling in terms of his ability to affect the game on both ends of the floor. He has enviable physical tools, including a 7-foot-4 wingspan and tremendous mobility. Jackson's ability to space the floor (40 percent from 3-point territory and 80 percent from the line), block shots (5.7 per 40 minutes), switch on every screen and, increasingly, put the ball on the floor from the perimeter makes him an ideal fit for the modern NBA.
Starting salary: $5,977,870
5. Dallas Mavericks
Mohamed Bamba
Texas
Age: 20.1
C
Height: 7-foot | Weight: 207
Bamba's rare combination of length, shot-blocking instincts and offensive promise gives him one of the highest ceilings of any prospect in this draft. Every team in the NBA is looking for a big man like him who can anchor a defense.
Starting salary: $5,412,922
6. Orlando Magic
Trae Young
Oklahoma
Age: 19.6
PG
Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 176
Teams are getting mixed signals from the Magic about their intentions here. Some sources around the league say they are picking between guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Trae Young and Collin Sexton, while others feel like this will be more of a best-player-available situation, with Bamba and Carter strongly in the mix.
Starting salary: $4,916,346
7. Chicago Bulls
Wendell Carter Jr.
Duke
Age: 19.1
C
Height: 6-foot-10 | Weight: 263
The Bulls would love to draft a big man who complements Lauri Markkanen, sources say. Carter is looking like a favorite here if he's available.
Carter's feel and versatility are promising in a number of ways. He is a physically mature big man with a 263-pound frame and 7-3 wingspan, which will allow him to play center in the NBA with ease.
He is a polished player with excellent hands and touch around the basket and has demonstrated a nice blend of passing, shot-blocking and perimeter shooting, despite being overshadowed at times by Bagley at Duke.
Starting salary: $4,488,019
8. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Nets)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Kentucky
Age: 19.9
PG/SG
Height: 6-foot-6 | Weight: 171
Gilgeous-Alexander has picked up quite a bit of momentum here, despite the fact that he hasn't worked out for Cleveland.
His size, length and versatility could be very attractive. His offense made significant strides as the season went on, and NBA teams feel he's only starting to scratch the surface on his potential.
Starting salary: $4,111,429
9. New York Knicks
Kevin Knox
Kentucky
Age: 18.7
SF/PF
Height: 6-foot-9 | Weight: 205
All signs point to Knox at No. 9, as it's becoming widely assumed in NBA circles that he's the top option for the Knicks given who will be available.
While we've had Knox sliding to the Nos. 12-15 range the past few months after an up-and-down freshman season, NBA teams drafting in that range say they don't anticipate him being there. There's a significant market in the NBA for combo forwards in his mold who can make an open shot, defend multiple positions and offer some offensive versatility. He's one of the youngest players in this draft, so he still has plenty of room to continue to grow.
Starting salary: $3,779,482
10. Philadelphia 76ers (via Lakers)
Mikal Bridges
Villanova
Age: 21.7
SF
Height: 6-foot-7 | Weight: 200
Most NBA executives assume the Sixers will take Bridges here. He fits a position of need, complements stars Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons and he's ready to produce right away.
The 76ers have gotten great production out of JJ Redikk and Marco Belinelli, but with both players approaching free agency -- and their mid-30s -- it makes sense to think about drafting a wing who fits next to Philadelphia's building blocks.
Bridges is an easy player to slot on almost any NBA roster, thanks to his multipositional defensive versatility, 3-point shooting and role-player potential. He isn't as gifted a shot creator as you'd like from a top-10 pick, but on this roster, he won't need to be.
Starting salary: $3,590,268
11. Charlotte Hornets
Collin Sexton
Alabama
Age: 19.3
PG
Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 183
Finding a point guard of the future before Kemba Walker hits free agency is looking like a priority for the Hornets here.
Sexton brings tremendous aggressiveness driving the lane, taking off-the-dribble jumpers and putting defensive pressure on opposing guards. NBA teams have some concerns about Sexton's on-court decision-making and reckless style of play. Fiercely competitive, Sexton has shown enough flashes in the right areas to be comfortably projected as a starting-caliber point guard, with plenty of upside.
Starting salary: $3,410,963
12. LA Clippers (via Pistons)
Michael Porter Jr.
Missouri
Age: 19.9
SF/PF
Height: 6-foot-10 | Weight: 214
Concerns about the long-term outlook of Porter's health following back and hip issues have him potentially sliding out of the top 10, according to sources.
Porter came into the season with hopes of making a run at being the No. 1 pick in the draft. However, he wasn't able to build his case because of injurires. Porter's size, skill and scoring instincts nevertheless make him a coveted prospect. He is a playmaker on both ends of the floor and is just starting to figure out how to put his talent to full use.
Starting salary: $3,240,463
13. LA Clippers
Jerome Robinson
Boston College
Age: 21.2
PG
Height: 6-foot-5 | Weight: 181
A smooth, high-IQ combo guard, Robinson offers shooting and creativity and has the versatility to play either on or off the ball.
He had one of the most productive campaigns in ACC history for Boston College.
Starting salary: $3,078,404
14. Denver Nuggets
Miles Bridges
Michigan State
Age: 20.1
SF/PF
Height: 6-foot-6 | Weight: 226
Mikal Bridges, Miles Bridges, Jerome Robinson and Zhaire Smith will be under consideration with this pick, depending on which prospects fall to No. 14
The Nuggets have been cycling through options at small forward all season and could very well look to address that position in the draft and/or free agency this summer.
Bridges is a freakish athlete who struggled at times to make the full-time transition to small forward, but he undoubtedly has potential as a two-way forward who can guard all over the floor and give you enough shooting, ballhandling and passing to get by at one of the most important positions in today's NBA.
Starting salary: $2,924,539
15. Washington Wizards
Lonnie Walker IV
Miami
Age: 19.4
SG
Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 206
Walker didn't have a consistent or efficient freshman season, but his talent, combined with the lack of depth at his position, is keeping him in this range.
His youth, strong frame, 6-foot-10½ wingspan and ability to shoot with his feet set or off the dribble make him a candidate to rise as teams search for upside and diamonds in the rough.
Starting salary: $2,778,134
16. Phoenix Suns (via Heat)
Aaron Holiday
UCLA
Age: 21.6
PG
Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 187
Holiday has drawn a huge amount of attention from Phoenix throughout the draft process. Robinson hasn't been in for a workout, but the Suns are interested in him, as well as Zhaire Smith.
Holiday had an outstanding junior season and he would bring a number of attractive traits to the Suns with his microwave scoring ability, long wingspan and toughness.
He's a pitbull defender who should be able to earn minutes early on for his abilities on that end.
Starting salary: $2,639,313
17. Milwaukee Bucks
Donte DiVincenzo
Villanova
Age: 21.3
PG
Height: 6-foot-5 | Weight: 200
Robinson will likely get a strong look from Milwaukee if he's available. Zhaire Smith is also a possibility, should he fall.
DiVincenzo put himself firmly on the NBA map with a memorable performance in the NCAA tournament championship game and continued his strong play at the NBA combine. He's a versatile guard who brings toughness and aggressiveness on both ends of the floor as well as deep range from beyond the arc.
Starting salary: $2,507,345
18. San Antonio Spurs
Robert Williams
Texas A&M
Age: 20.6
PF/C
Height: 6-foot-10 | Weight: 237
Lonnie Walker is unlikely to get past San Antonio if he's still available, sources say. Robert Williams has interviewed with the Spurs and could be an interesting upside pick considering their needs for bigs. Kevin Heurter is also reportedly under consideration.
Williams reminded everyone why he was such a highly touted prospect entering the season with an impressive run to finish the year, helping Texas A&M reach the Sweet 16.
Despite playing out of position all season, he has shown that his game is tailor-made for the NBA as a rim-running, pick-and-roll-finishing, shot-blocker/offensive rebounder in the Clint Capela mold.
Starting salary: $2,381,975
19. Atlanta Hawks (via Wolves)
Zhaire Smith
Texas Tech
Age: 18.9
SF
Height: 6-foot-5 | Weight: 195
The Hawks could use this pick (as well as their other draft assets) to try and move up, targeting Trae Young or Lonnie Walker.
Originally expected to be more of a 2019 draft candidate, Smith accelerated that timeline by helping Texas Tech reach the Elite Eight.
Smith needs to continue to develop his ballhandling and perimeter shooting, but he's one of the best athletes in this draft, and his trajectory as a prospect suggests he has considerable upside.
Starting salary: $2,274,709
20. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Thunder)
Kevin Huerter
Maryland
Age: 19.7
SG
Height: 6-foot-7 | Weight: 182
The 6-7 wing elevated his draft stock considerably with a strong showing at the combine.
Huerter's size, feel and upside could be intriguing at this stage of the draft -- he's younger than some of the freshmen projected to be drafted. Huerter recently underwent surgery to repair torn ligaments in his right hand and is expected to miss two months.
DiVincenzo is picking up quite a bit of steam here as well.
Starting salary: $2,183,588
21. Utah Jazz
Grayson Allen
Duke
Age: 22.5
SG
Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 185
The Jazz are high on Heurter and DiVincenzo, sources say, but they might be off the board. French combo guard Elie Okobo is drawing interest as well.
Allen is a big-time shot-maker who should be ready to contribute fairly soon as one of the few NCAA seniors projected to be picked in the first round.
Starting salary: $2,096,260
22. Chicago Bulls (via Pelicans)
Chandler Hutchison
Boise State
Age: 22.0
SG/SF
Height: 6-foot-7 | Weight: 193
Teams believe that Hutchison dropped out of the combine and cancelled his workouts after securing a promise from a team in this range. The mystery surrounding which team made that promise remains one of the hottest topics in draft circles.
Hutchison's size, athleticism and ability to create his own shot are appealing in a league that is starved for players at his position. He made significant strides with his game as a senior. He has outstanding physical tools and is a much-improved ball handler and perimeter shooter.
Starting salary: $2,012,478
23. Indiana Pacers
Elie Okobo
Pau-Orthez
Age: 20.5
PG
Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 180
Okobo has rocketed up draft boards with a strong end to the season in France, leading his team to the playoffs and then having a memorable 44-point game once there.
The smooth guard has good physical tools with the ability to pass out of pick-and-roll sets and make shots with range pulling up off the dribble. His size and length should allow him to play alongside another point guard in the same backcourt, which is attractive in today's NBA.
Starting salary: $1,931,999
24. Portland Trail Blazers
Troy Brown
Oregon
Age: 18.8
SG
Height: 6-foot-7 | Weight: 210
Plugged-in Blazers beat writer Jason Quick reported that Anfernee Simons was brought in for a second workout (he's the only player they've worked out twice). Dzanan Musa was also in town.
Brown's size, multipositional defense and upside could stand out here.
He's one of the youngest players in this class and consistently described as an outstanding teammate and worker. Helping him become a better shooter will be a major key for whichever team drafts him.
Starting salary: $1,854,821
Michael Porter Jr.
Missouri
Age: 19.9
SF/PF
Height: 6-foot-10 | Weight: 214
Concerns about the long-term outlook of Porter's health following back and hip issues have him potentially sliding out of the top 10, according to sources.
Porter came into the season with hopes of making a run at being the No. 1 pick in the draft. However, he wasn't able to build his case because of injurires. Porter's size, skill and scoring instincts nevertheless make him a coveted prospect. He is a playmaker on both ends of the floor and is just starting to figure out how to put his talent to full use.
Starting salary: $3,240,463
13. LA Clippers
Jerome Robinson
Boston College
Age: 21.2
PG
Height: 6-foot-5 | Weight: 181
A smooth, high-IQ combo guard, Robinson offers shooting and creativity and has the versatility to play either on or off the ball.
He had one of the most productive campaigns in ACC history for Boston College.
Starting salary: $3,078,404
14. Denver Nuggets
Miles Bridges
Michigan State
Age: 20.1
SF/PF
Height: 6-foot-6 | Weight: 226
Mikal Bridges, Miles Bridges, Jerome Robinson and Zhaire Smith will be under consideration with this pick, depending on which prospects fall to No. 14
The Nuggets have been cycling through options at small forward all season and could very well look to address that position in the draft and/or free agency this summer.
Bridges is a freakish athlete who struggled at times to make the full-time transition to small forward, but he undoubtedly has potential as a two-way forward who can guard all over the floor and give you enough shooting, ballhandling and passing to get by at one of the most important positions in today's NBA.
Starting salary: $2,924,539
15. Washington Wizards
Lonnie Walker IV
Miami
Age: 19.4
SG
Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 206
Walker didn't have a consistent or efficient freshman season, but his talent, combined with the lack of depth at his position, is keeping him in this range.
His youth, strong frame, 6-foot-10½ wingspan and ability to shoot with his feet set or off the dribble make him a candidate to rise as teams search for upside and diamonds in the rough.
Starting salary: $2,778,134
16. Phoenix Suns (via Heat)
Aaron Holiday
UCLA
Age: 21.6
PG
Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 187
Holiday has drawn a huge amount of attention from Phoenix throughout the draft process. Robinson hasn't been in for a workout, but the Suns are interested in him, as well as Zhaire Smith.
Holiday had an outstanding junior season and he would bring a number of attractive traits to the Suns with his microwave scoring ability, long wingspan and toughness.
He's a pitbull defender who should be able to earn minutes early on for his abilities on that end.
Starting salary: $2,639,313
17. Milwaukee Bucks
Donte DiVincenzo
Villanova
Age: 21.3
PG
Height: 6-foot-5 | Weight: 200
Robinson will likely get a strong look from Milwaukee if he's available. Zhaire Smith is also a possibility, should he fall.
DiVincenzo put himself firmly on the NBA map with a memorable performance in the NCAA tournament championship game and continued his strong play at the NBA combine. He's a versatile guard who brings toughness and aggressiveness on both ends of the floor as well as deep range from beyond the arc.
Starting salary: $2,507,345
18. San Antonio Spurs
Robert Williams
Texas A&M
Age: 20.6
PF/C
Height: 6-foot-10 | Weight: 237
Lonnie Walker is unlikely to get past San Antonio if he's still available, sources say. Robert Williams has interviewed with the Spurs and could be an interesting upside pick considering their needs for bigs. Kevin Heurter is also reportedly under consideration.
Williams reminded everyone why he was such a highly touted prospect entering the season with an impressive run to finish the year, helping Texas A&M reach the Sweet 16.
Despite playing out of position all season, he has shown that his game is tailor-made for the NBA as a rim-running, pick-and-roll-finishing, shot-blocker/offensive rebounder in the Clint Capela mold.
Starting salary: $2,381,975
19. Atlanta Hawks (via Wolves)
Zhaire Smith
Texas Tech
Age: 18.9
SF
Height: 6-foot-5 | Weight: 195
The Hawks could use this pick (as well as their other draft assets) to try and move up, targeting Trae Young or Lonnie Walker.
Originally expected to be more of a 2019 draft candidate, Smith accelerated that timeline by helping Texas Tech reach the Elite Eight.
Smith needs to continue to develop his ballhandling and perimeter shooting, but he's one of the best athletes in this draft, and his trajectory as a prospect suggests he has considerable upside.
Starting salary: $2,274,709
20. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Thunder)
Kevin Huerter
Maryland
Age: 19.7
SG
Height: 6-foot-7 | Weight: 182
The 6-7 wing elevated his draft stock considerably with a strong showing at the combine.
Huerter's size, feel and upside could be intriguing at this stage of the draft -- he's younger than some of the freshmen projected to be drafted. Huerter recently underwent surgery to repair torn ligaments in his right hand and is expected to miss two months.
DiVincenzo is picking up quite a bit of steam here as well.
Starting salary: $2,183,588
21. Utah Jazz
Grayson Allen
Duke
Age: 22.5
SG
Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 185
The Jazz are high on Heurter and DiVincenzo, sources say, but they might be off the board. French combo guard Elie Okobo is drawing interest as well.
Allen is a big-time shot-maker who should be ready to contribute fairly soon as one of the few NCAA seniors projected to be picked in the first round.
Starting salary: $2,096,260
22. Chicago Bulls (via Pelicans)
Chandler Hutchison
Boise State
Age: 22.0
SG/SF
Height: 6-foot-7 | Weight: 193
Teams believe that Hutchison dropped out of the combine and cancelled his workouts after securing a promise from a team in this range. The mystery surrounding which team made that promise remains one of the hottest topics in draft circles.
Hutchison's size, athleticism and ability to create his own shot are appealing in a league that is starved for players at his position. He made significant strides with his game as a senior. He has outstanding physical tools and is a much-improved ball handler and perimeter shooter.
Starting salary: $2,012,478
23. Indiana Pacers
Elie Okobo
Pau-Orthez
Age: 20.5
PG
Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 180
Okobo has rocketed up draft boards with a strong end to the season in France, leading his team to the playoffs and then having a memorable 44-point game once there.
The smooth guard has good physical tools with the ability to pass out of pick-and-roll sets and make shots with range pulling up off the dribble. His size and length should allow him to play alongside another point guard in the same backcourt, which is attractive in today's NBA.
Starting salary: $1,931,999
24. Portland Trail Blazers
Troy Brown
Oregon
Age: 18.8
SG
Height: 6-foot-7 | Weight: 210
Plugged-in Blazers beat writer Jason Quick reported that Anfernee Simons was brought in for a second workout (he's the only player they've worked out twice). Dzanan Musa was also in town.
Brown's size, multipositional defense and upside could stand out here.
He's one of the youngest players in this class and consistently described as an outstanding teammate and worker. Helping him become a better shooter will be a major key for whichever team drafts him.
Starting salary: $1,854,821
25. Los Angeles Lakers (via Cavs)
Anfernee Simons
Team Breakdown
Age: 19.0
SG
Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 183
Simons is one of the least NBA-ready players in the draft, but he's intriguing due to his combination of youth, explosiveness and shot-making prowess.
He's a few years away from panning out, but at this stage of the draft, there isn't much risk adding a prospect with his upside.
Starting salary: $1,780,457
26. Philadelphia 76ers
Dzanan Musa
Cedevita
Age: 19.0
SF
Height: 6-foot-9 | Weight: 195
The Sixers are considering using this pick on a European player they can stash next season, according to sources. Trading it for a future first-rounder is a possibility as well.
Musa's size, scoring instincts and aggressiveness could be intriguing.
He's one of the youngest players in this class, but he already is productive in Europe, playing at a fairly high level. However, his shot-selection and decision-making could stand to improve.
Starting salary: $1,721,504
27. Boston Celtics
De'Anthony Melton
USC
Age: 20.0
PG/SG
Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 195
With Marcus Smart hitting restricted free agency, the Celtics could pursue another guard option here.
Melton looked to be on the verge of a breakout season for USC before the FBI's investigation into recruiting shut him down indefinitely. His basketball IQ, ability to guard multiple positions, toughness and intangibles make him a prospect worth investing in.
Starting salary: $1,671,968
28. Golden State Warriors
Josh Okogie
Georgia Tech
Age: 19.7
SG
Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 195
Okogie has length, toughness and defensive versatility, and he's put himself firmly in the first-round mix with a strong pre-draft process, including an excellent showing at the combine.
He was the primary shot-creator on an underwhelming Georgia Tech team, which played a big part in his inefficiencies offensively.
Starting salary: $1,661,574
29. Brooklyn Nets (via Raptors)
Keita Bates-Diop
Ohio State
Age: 22.3
PF
Height: 6-foot-7 | Weight: 235
Bates-Diop increased his stock dramatically with a breakout season, moving among all of the frontcourt positions for an overachieving Ohio State team and looking like an ideal fit for the modern NBA -- if he can find a way to rev his motor into higher gear at the professional level.
Starting salary: $1,649,464
30. Atlanta Hawks (via Rockets)
Jalen Brunson
Villanova
Age: 21.7
PG
Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 200
If they keep all three first-rounders, the Hawks should just be in best-player-available mode here.
Brunson is an extremely efficient offensive player, with a strong frame and reliable catch-and-shoot jumper. He rarely plays outside of his role and abilities.
Starting salary: $1,637,600
Second round
31. Suns
Moritz Wagner | C | Age: 21.1 | Michigan
32. Grizzlies
Melvin Frazier | SF | Age: 21.7 | Tulane
33. Mavericks
Bruce Brown | SG | Age: 21.8 | Miami
34. Hawks
Rodions Kurucs | SF/PF | Age: 20.3 | Barcelona
35. Magic
Devonte' Graham | PG | Age: 23.3 | Kansas
36. Knicks (from Bulls)
Landry Shamet | PG | Age: 21.2 | Wichita State
37. Kings
Khyri Thomas | SG | Age: 22.0 | Creighton
38. 76ers (from Nets)
Jevon Carter | PG | Age: 22.7 | West Virginia
39. Lakers (from Knicks)
Mitchell Robinson | C | Age: 20.2 | Chalmette HS (Louisiana)
40. Nets (from Lakers)
Jacob Evans | SG/SF | Age: 21.0 | Cincinnati
41. Magic (from Hornets)
Issuf Sanon | PG/SG | Age: 18.6 | Olimpija Ljubljana
42. Pistons
Hamidou Diallo | SG | Age: 19.8 | Kentucky
43. Nuggets (from Clippers)
Gary Trent Jr. | SG | Age: 19.4 | Duke
44. Wizards
Rawle Alkins | SG | Age: 20.6 | Arizona
45. Hornets (from Bucks)
Omari Spellman | PF | Age: 20.8 | Villanova
46. Rockets (from Heat)
Jarred Vanderbilt | SF | Age: 19.1 | Kentucky
47. Lakers (from Nuggets)
Gary Clark | PF | Age: 23.5 | Cincinnati
48. Wolves
Shake Milton | PG/SG | Age: 21.7 | SMU
49. Spurs
Isaac Bonga | SF | Age: 18.5 | Frankfurt
50. Pacers
Alize Johnson | PF | Age: 22.1 | Missouri
51. Pelicans
Justin Jackson | SF/PF | Age: 21.3 | Maryland
52. Jazz
Malik Newman | PG/SG | Age: 21.3 | Kansas
53. Thunder
Theo Pinson | PG/SG | Age: 22.6 | UNC
54. Mavericks (from Blazers)
Trevon Duval | PG | Age: 19.8 | Duke
55. Hornets (from Cavaliers)
Kostas Antetokounmpo | SF | Age: 20.5 | Dayton
56. 76ers
Chimezie Metu | PF/C | Age: 21.2 | USC
57. Thunder (from Celtics)
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk | SG | Age: 21.0 | Kansas
58. Nuggets (from Warriors)
Kenrich Williams | PF | Age: 23.5 | TCU
59. Suns (from Raptors)
Arnoldas Kulboka | SF | Age: 20.4 | Capo D'Orlando
60. 76ers (from Rockets)
Tryggvi Hlinason | C | Age: 20.6 | Valencia
Anfernee Simons
Team Breakdown
Age: 19.0
SG
Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 183
Simons is one of the least NBA-ready players in the draft, but he's intriguing due to his combination of youth, explosiveness and shot-making prowess.
He's a few years away from panning out, but at this stage of the draft, there isn't much risk adding a prospect with his upside.
Starting salary: $1,780,457
26. Philadelphia 76ers
Dzanan Musa
Cedevita
Age: 19.0
SF
Height: 6-foot-9 | Weight: 195
The Sixers are considering using this pick on a European player they can stash next season, according to sources. Trading it for a future first-rounder is a possibility as well.
Musa's size, scoring instincts and aggressiveness could be intriguing.
He's one of the youngest players in this class, but he already is productive in Europe, playing at a fairly high level. However, his shot-selection and decision-making could stand to improve.
Starting salary: $1,721,504
27. Boston Celtics
De'Anthony Melton
USC
Age: 20.0
PG/SG
Height: 6-foot-3 | Weight: 195
With Marcus Smart hitting restricted free agency, the Celtics could pursue another guard option here.
Melton looked to be on the verge of a breakout season for USC before the FBI's investigation into recruiting shut him down indefinitely. His basketball IQ, ability to guard multiple positions, toughness and intangibles make him a prospect worth investing in.
Starting salary: $1,671,968
28. Golden State Warriors
Josh Okogie
Georgia Tech
Age: 19.7
SG
Height: 6-foot-4 | Weight: 195
Okogie has length, toughness and defensive versatility, and he's put himself firmly in the first-round mix with a strong pre-draft process, including an excellent showing at the combine.
He was the primary shot-creator on an underwhelming Georgia Tech team, which played a big part in his inefficiencies offensively.
Starting salary: $1,661,574
29. Brooklyn Nets (via Raptors)
Keita Bates-Diop
Ohio State
Age: 22.3
PF
Height: 6-foot-7 | Weight: 235
Bates-Diop increased his stock dramatically with a breakout season, moving among all of the frontcourt positions for an overachieving Ohio State team and looking like an ideal fit for the modern NBA -- if he can find a way to rev his motor into higher gear at the professional level.
Starting salary: $1,649,464
30. Atlanta Hawks (via Rockets)
Jalen Brunson
Villanova
Age: 21.7
PG
Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 200
If they keep all three first-rounders, the Hawks should just be in best-player-available mode here.
Brunson is an extremely efficient offensive player, with a strong frame and reliable catch-and-shoot jumper. He rarely plays outside of his role and abilities.
Starting salary: $1,637,600
Second round
31. Suns
Moritz Wagner | C | Age: 21.1 | Michigan
32. Grizzlies
Melvin Frazier | SF | Age: 21.7 | Tulane
33. Mavericks
Bruce Brown | SG | Age: 21.8 | Miami
34. Hawks
Rodions Kurucs | SF/PF | Age: 20.3 | Barcelona
35. Magic
Devonte' Graham | PG | Age: 23.3 | Kansas
36. Knicks (from Bulls)
Landry Shamet | PG | Age: 21.2 | Wichita State
37. Kings
Khyri Thomas | SG | Age: 22.0 | Creighton
38. 76ers (from Nets)
Jevon Carter | PG | Age: 22.7 | West Virginia
39. Lakers (from Knicks)
Mitchell Robinson | C | Age: 20.2 | Chalmette HS (Louisiana)
40. Nets (from Lakers)
Jacob Evans | SG/SF | Age: 21.0 | Cincinnati
41. Magic (from Hornets)
Issuf Sanon | PG/SG | Age: 18.6 | Olimpija Ljubljana
42. Pistons
Hamidou Diallo | SG | Age: 19.8 | Kentucky
43. Nuggets (from Clippers)
Gary Trent Jr. | SG | Age: 19.4 | Duke
44. Wizards
Rawle Alkins | SG | Age: 20.6 | Arizona
45. Hornets (from Bucks)
Omari Spellman | PF | Age: 20.8 | Villanova
46. Rockets (from Heat)
Jarred Vanderbilt | SF | Age: 19.1 | Kentucky
47. Lakers (from Nuggets)
Gary Clark | PF | Age: 23.5 | Cincinnati
48. Wolves
Shake Milton | PG/SG | Age: 21.7 | SMU
49. Spurs
Isaac Bonga | SF | Age: 18.5 | Frankfurt
50. Pacers
Alize Johnson | PF | Age: 22.1 | Missouri
51. Pelicans
Justin Jackson | SF/PF | Age: 21.3 | Maryland
52. Jazz
Malik Newman | PG/SG | Age: 21.3 | Kansas
53. Thunder
Theo Pinson | PG/SG | Age: 22.6 | UNC
54. Mavericks (from Blazers)
Trevon Duval | PG | Age: 19.8 | Duke
55. Hornets (from Cavaliers)
Kostas Antetokounmpo | SF | Age: 20.5 | Dayton
56. 76ers
Chimezie Metu | PF/C | Age: 21.2 | USC
57. Thunder (from Celtics)
Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk | SG | Age: 21.0 | Kansas
58. Nuggets (from Warriors)
Kenrich Williams | PF | Age: 23.5 | TCU
59. Suns (from Raptors)
Arnoldas Kulboka | SF | Age: 20.4 | Capo D'Orlando
60. 76ers (from Rockets)
Tryggvi Hlinason | C | Age: 20.6 | Valencia
Which team can unlock Luka Doncic's star potential?
Luka Doncic has been a star and borderline cult figure in Europe since his early teenage years. Now the Slovenian sensation is becoming more of a household name among NBA fans.
While he's one of the most accomplished European prospects of all time, it's not quite clear how Doncic will and should be used in the NBA.
Where is he best, and how should teams use him?
With the draft lottery in the books, let's look at which of the top teams would best unlock his star potential.
How do you use Doncic?
There's little question that Doncic will be a successful NBA player. The real topic teams are pondering is whether Doncic projects as a franchise building block or a high-end starter on a really good team.
Here's the skinny on his game:
- Modern perimeter player with a versatile skill set; best skills are unleashed when he has the ball in his hands
- Electric attacking rebounds and pushing tempo in the open floor
- Pick-and-roll tactician who dissects help defenses with cross-court darts and high-velocity hook passes
- More effective shooter off the bounce (69th percentile) than off the catch (48th percentile), regularly creating space to get to his patented step-back going left
- Dances on the perimeter against switches, lulling bigs to sleep before pulling up
- Struggles mightily as the primary ball handler without much backcourt help
- Had issues against aggressive defensive pressure all season
- Doesn't have the wiggle to break down rangier athletes consistently, and easily slowed by hard hedges and switches from agile bigs
- At 6-foot-8, 228 pounds, he's at his best defending wings instead of guards
Transition igniter
Have Doncic attack defensive rebounds and push tempo. Through 61 games this season, he is scoring 1.34 points per possession on 82 chances as the transition ball handler, and he's an even more dynamic open-floor playmaker than scorer.
On-the-move shot creator
The key is to get Doncic going to his right out of the pick-and-roll after the defense is already shifting, as he looks heavy-footed creating from a standstill against a set defense. Use a veteran point guard to bring the ball up the floor, then get Doncic into a ball screen with momentum to his right so he can use his size and elite vision to pick teams apart.
Doncic is also a skilled pick-and-roll scorer (85th percentile), beating defenders going under screens by launching deep pull-ups, getting into midrange spots and finishing with slowdown floaters or crafty touch.
Off-ball value
Doncic becomes quite ordinary if you stick him in the corner, as he isn't a knockdown spot shooter or an overly active cutter. But he's capable enough off the catch for teams to have to close out, and he's instinctual attacking from there. He's an excellent passer against scrambling defenses, and he has value as a screener given his size and ability to punish smalls in the post.
What does he need around him?
Think about how the Houston Rockets use James Harden -- traditional PG in Chris Paul, a pair of two-way wings in PJ Tucker and Trevor Ariza plus an athletic 5 in Clint Capela. Harden also plays as the more ball-dominant guard for stretches next to Eric Gordon.
While Doncic is no Harden athletically, this is a good model to unlock his skills:
1. Versatile, shot-creating guard
- Sure-handed, can handle pressure
- Good athlete who is dynamic attacking the rim or pulling up out of the pick-and-roll
- Adequate spot-up shooter willing to play off the ball for stretches
- Plus defender of point guards
- See above
- Spot-up shooter with size (Doncic loves to hit the weakside corner out of the pick-and-roll)
- Transition athlete who can get up and down
- Plus defender of shooting guards and small forwards (so Doncic can take the lesser offensive player)
- Adds value as a spacer/pick-and-pop threat
- Capable ball handler and straight-line driver who can pass on the move (Doncic likes to give the ball up early when pressured in the pick-and-roll)
- Comfortable switching defensively -- adequate defender of 4s
- Long, agile and runs the floor hard
- Vertical spacer who finishes above the rim (less pressure for Doncic to break down defenses)
- Switch defender who also protects the rim (Doncic struggles to navigate screens but can battle bigs on switches)
How does he fit?
Here's how well Doncic fits with teams drafting the top five.
Phoenix Suns | No. 1
Value proposition: Kokoskov relationship + Devin Booker
- Backcourt mate: Booker, Tyler Ulis
- Two-way wing: Josh Jackson, TJ Warren
- Modern forward/big: Dragan Bender
- Roller: Marquese Chriss, Tyson Chandler
Playing next to a shot creator like Booker would bode well in some respects. However, Doncic would benefit from having a bit more experience and point-guard savvy in that spot. While accomplished, the 21-year-old Booker is still developing his on-ball game and is much more of a shot-making scorer at this stage. Defensively, Doncic and Booker will have their challenges.
Phoenix lacks a degree of spacing with Jackson (26.3 percent from 3 this season), Warren (22.2 percent) and Chriss (29.5 percent) on the perimeter, but Jackson and Warren could run with Doncic in transition. Bender is also an interesting fit, should the Croatian continue to make strides as a shooter. With Alex Len hitting free agency and Chandler toward the end of his career, the Suns don't quite have that dynamic lob-catcher.
A young trio of Doncic, Booker and Jackson (and potentially Bender, pending improvement) is intriguing, but Phoenix would have to work on acquiring more veteran ballhandling, shooting and athleticism up front over the next few years. And entering a rebuild would be an adjustment after all of his European success.
Sacramento Kings | No. 2
Value proposition: Dynamic ball handlers + agile bigs
- Backcourt mate: De'Aaron Fox, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Frank Mason, Buddy Hield
- Two-way wing: Justin Jackson, Garrett Temple, Iman Shumpert
- Modern forward/big: Skal Labissiere
- Roller: Willie Cauley-Stein, Harry Giles, Zach Randolph
The Kings lack versatile perimeter defenders to cover up some of Doncic's deficiencies, but at least he wouldn't be stuck guarding 1s. Although he hasn't come close to maximizing his potential, Cauley-Stein -- entering a contract year -- is an ideal 5 for Doncic when engaged. The Kings staff raves about Giles, who can also fill that dynamic roller spot when healthy.
Overall, though, the Kings are still finding their direction long-term, and Doncic could take time adjusting.
Atlanta Hawks | No. 3
Value proposition: Fit with Prince + Collins
The one young Hawks piece who doesn't fit all that well is Schroder, who is on the books for $46.5 million over the next three years but might not be a part of Atlanta's long-term plans. His breakdown speed and shot creation work next to a more methodical Doncic, but he needs the ball to be effective because of his limitations as a shooter. Schroder has underwhelmed defensively as well, finishing in the bottom five among point guards in ESPN's defensive real plus-minus four out of his past five seasons.
Lacking the ideal backcourt mate could lead to some lumps early in Doncic's career if he's saddled with too much shot-creation responsibility. But with plenty of draft picks coming, the Hawks are in a solid position to add more young pieces. Finding the guard to unlock Doncic's strengths will be key.
Memphis Grizzlies | No. 4
Value proposition: Fit with Conley + win-now timeline
Outside of maybe Davis in time, Memphis doesn't have a dynamic roller for Doncic to spoon-feed. Gasol isn't an explosive big, but he provides floor spacing at the 5 while also operating as a plus playmaker from all over the floor. Defensively, they're a troublesome pick-and-roll pairing. Brooks is capable of filling the 3-and-D wing role and Parsons, if healthy, is a good fit at the 4 in modern lineups.
If Memphis' core were younger there could be worries about the 19-year-old getting enough on-ball opportunities, but ushering him in with veterans is one of his best options. The Grizzlies are short on athletes and versatile defenders, and their young talent isn't quite as plentiful as other teams at the top of this draft, but the immediate fit and long-term benefit of playing next to Conley makes Memphis arguably the most attractive destination from a basketball standpoint.
Dallas Mavericks | No. 5
Value proposition: Carlisle system + veteran role players
Barea and Nowitzki offer veteran leadership as Doncic learns the NBA ropes. Veterans Matthews and Barnes will also ease his transition while bringing some defensive versatility. Should he re-sign, McDermott is an excellent spacer and on-the-move shooter. Powell led the NBA in field goal percentage in the paint and he's one of the game's more underrated rollers while possessing some agility defensively.
This isn't an ideal fit given Smith's struggling defense and uninspiring off-ball play as well as Barnes' sometimes iso-happy preference, but there's certainly enough to work with here.
Value proposition: Fit with Prince + Collins
- Backcourt mate: Dennis Schroder
- 3-and-D wing: Taurean Prince, Kent Bazemore, DeAndre' Bembry
- Modern forward/big: Prince
- Roller: John Collins, Dewayne Dedmon, Mike Muscala
The one young Hawks piece who doesn't fit all that well is Schroder, who is on the books for $46.5 million over the next three years but might not be a part of Atlanta's long-term plans. His breakdown speed and shot creation work next to a more methodical Doncic, but he needs the ball to be effective because of his limitations as a shooter. Schroder has underwhelmed defensively as well, finishing in the bottom five among point guards in ESPN's defensive real plus-minus four out of his past five seasons.
Lacking the ideal backcourt mate could lead to some lumps early in Doncic's career if he's saddled with too much shot-creation responsibility. But with plenty of draft picks coming, the Hawks are in a solid position to add more young pieces. Finding the guard to unlock Doncic's strengths will be key.
Memphis Grizzlies | No. 4
Value proposition: Fit with Conley + win-now timeline
- Backcourt mate: Mike Conley
- 3-and-D wing: Dillon Brooks, Wayne Selden
- Modern forward/big: Chandler Parsons, JaMychal Green
- Roller: Marc Gasol, Deyonta Davis
Outside of maybe Davis in time, Memphis doesn't have a dynamic roller for Doncic to spoon-feed. Gasol isn't an explosive big, but he provides floor spacing at the 5 while also operating as a plus playmaker from all over the floor. Defensively, they're a troublesome pick-and-roll pairing. Brooks is capable of filling the 3-and-D wing role and Parsons, if healthy, is a good fit at the 4 in modern lineups.
If Memphis' core were younger there could be worries about the 19-year-old getting enough on-ball opportunities, but ushering him in with veterans is one of his best options. The Grizzlies are short on athletes and versatile defenders, and their young talent isn't quite as plentiful as other teams at the top of this draft, but the immediate fit and long-term benefit of playing next to Conley makes Memphis arguably the most attractive destination from a basketball standpoint.
Dallas Mavericks | No. 5
Value proposition: Carlisle system + veteran role players
- Backcourt mate: Dennis Smith Jr., J.J. Barea
- Two-way wing: Wesley Matthews, Dorian Finney-Smith
- Modern forward/big: Harrison Barnes, Doug McDermott, Dirk Nowitzki
- Roller: Dwight Powell
Barea and Nowitzki offer veteran leadership as Doncic learns the NBA ropes. Veterans Matthews and Barnes will also ease his transition while bringing some defensive versatility. Should he re-sign, McDermott is an excellent spacer and on-the-move shooter. Powell led the NBA in field goal percentage in the paint and he's one of the game's more underrated rollers while possessing some agility defensively.
This isn't an ideal fit given Smith's struggling defense and uninspiring off-ball play as well as Barnes' sometimes iso-happy preference, but there's certainly enough to work with here.
NBA mock draft: Projecting the next prospects to watch
With the 2018 NBA draft in the rearview mirror, it's time to shift our full attention to next year's crop.
A lot has happened since we last updated our 2019 mock draft, including, most importantly, players' decisions on whether to stay in the 2018 NBA draft or not.
We've attended sessions of Nike's prestigious AAU circuit, the EYBL, have been to high school showcases like the Pangos All-American camp, scoured the international ranks at the Euroleague ANGT Tournament and the NBA Global Combine, and just got back from the FIBA Americas U18 Championship.
That has given us a good starting point to begin to evaluate next year's draft, as well as the 2020 crop. We'll continue that process over the course of the summer, attending the FIBA U17 World Championship, and the A and B divisions of every FIBA Europe junior championship, including the U16, U18 and U20 tournaments. We'll cap that off with the Nike Skills Academy, the Steph Curry Camp and the Basketball Without Borders Europe camp in August. Be on the lookout for our first projection of the 2020 NBA draft in the fall.
Storylines to watch
- A number of college players decided to return to school at the early-entry deadline, including Jontay Porter, P.J. Washington, Tyus Battle, Lindell Wigginton, Shamorie Ponds, Kris Wilkes, Jalen McDaniels, Carsen Edwards and Jarrey Foster, giving this group some much-needed depth to fall back on. They join the likes of De'Andre Hunter, Daniel Gafford and Rui Hachimura, projected lottery picks who decided to skip testing the waters altogether.
- Charles Bassey and Ashton Hagans, the No. 3 and No. 17 recruits in ESPN's 2019 high school rankings, reclassified to 2018, and became eligible for next year's draft in turn. Jalen Lecque, currently ranked No. 10, could elect to do the same still.
- The lack of star power in the 2018 high school class, combined with the influx of college players, may cause you to believe we're headed for an older 2019 draft class, but that hasn't materialized yet at this stage.
The average age of players projected to be picked in the first round of our 2019 mock is 20.2 on draft day, exactly the same as the 2018 NBA draft first round.
That's fairly normal, as we often give the benefit of the doubt to younger players who we anticipate will end up improving in these types of forecasts, including the 12 freshmen and 11 rising sophomores in our mock. Only four juniors and one senior are currently projected to become first-round picks, which is highly unlikely to remain the case this time next year. We saw older players like Jerome Robinson, Aaron Holiday, Donte DiVincenzo, Grayson Allen and Chandler Hutchison work their way into fringe top-20 status as this year's draft process moved on, and we expect that to happen next year as well, we're just not sure with whom yet.
Only four centers overall are projected to be picked in the first round as a whole, which is perhaps a better reflection of the changing nature of today's game than the big man top-heavy 2018 draft crop.
- Five of the top seven players drafted in 2018 were centers, something that certainly won't be the case in 2019. Depending on how you define 6-foot-6 Zion Williamson, the first real center won't come off the board in 2019 until the No. 10 pick, if our current projections hold up.
- Finally, it doesn't look like Europe is returning to the prominence it once held in churning out first-round picks year after year, as we have seen in the past. Only two first-rounders in 2018 came from outside the United States and/or the NCAA system, and 2019 isn't looking much better, with only two such players (Sekou Doumbouya and Luka Samanic) currently being forecasted in the top 30.
A number of draft picks have already moved hands in 2019
Cleveland's first-rounder is owned by Atlanta, protected Nos. 1-10 through 2020. It converts to second-round picks in 2021 and 2022 if not conveyed. LeBron James' impending free agency has huge implications for the Hawks as well for that reason.
Sacramento's first-rounder is owned by Boston, protected only for the No. 1 pick (in which case it heads to the Philadelphia 76ers and Boston gets Philly's pick). This is a significant asset considering the fact that the Kings are currently projected to finish 29th in ESPN's early power rankings.
The Clippers' first-rounder is also owned by Boston. It is lottery protected in 2019 and 2020. This pick is unlikely to convey in 2019 unless the Clippers surprisingly make the playoffs next season (projected to finish 20th).
Boston owns the Grizzlies' first-rounder as well. It is protected Nos. 1-8 next year, Nos. 1-6 in 2020 and unprotected in 2021. The Grizzlies expect to be a little better next season (23rd in the power rankings), but if things go south, an all-out tanking job may be necessary to salvage this pick.
Milwaukee's first-rounder will be conveyed to Phoenix if if falls Nos. 4-16 next year, and Nos. 8-30 in 2020. The pairing of Giannis Antetokounmpo and new head coach Mike Budenholzer makes it difficult to fathom this pick not rolling over to 2020. The power rankings have the Bucks finishing 12th.
The Hawks own the Mavericks' 2019 first-rounder -- top-5 protected -- after acquiring the pick in the Trae Young-Luka Doncic trade on draft night.
ESPN's post-Finals Power Rankings were used to project draft order. Track all traded draft picks here.
2019 NBA mock draft
Team Player Year School Height Position Age
1. ATL R.J. Barrett Freshman Duke 6-7 SF 18.0
2. BOS (via SAC) Nassir Little Freshman North Carolina 6-6 SF 18.3
3. ORL Sekou Doumbouya International Limoges 6-9 PF 17.4
4. DAL Cam Reddish Freshman Duke 6-9 SF 18.7
5. PHX Romeo Langford Freshman Indiana 6-6 SG 18.6
6. BKN Quentin Grimes Freshman Kansas 6-4 SG 18.1
7. NYK Zion Williamson Freshman Duke 6-6 PF 17.9
8. MEM Darius Garland Freshman Vanderbilt 6-0 PG 18.3
9. CHI De'Andre Hunter Sophomore Virginia 6-8 PF 20.5
10. CHA Daniel Gafford Sophomore Arkansas 6-11 C 19.7
11. LAC Jontay Porter Sophomore Missouri 6-10 C 18.5
12. DET Bol Bol Freshman Oregon 7-2 C 18.5
13. MIA Keldon Johnson Freshman Kentucky 6-6 SF 18.6
14. ATL (via CLE) Rui Hachimura Sophomore Gonzaga 6-8 PF 20.3
15. WAS Luka Samanic International Olimpija Ljubljana 6-11 PF 18.4
16. POR Jalen Smith Freshman Maryland 6-10 PF 18.2
17. OKC Herb Jones Sophomore Alabama 6-7 SF 19.6
18. LAL Darius Bazley G-League N/A 6-9 SF/PF 18.0
19. MIL Charles Bassey Freshman Western Kentucky 6-10 C 17.6
20. IND P.J. Washington Sophomore Kentucky 6-8 PF 19.8
21. MIN Jarrett Culver Sophomore Texas Tech 6-5 SG 19.3
22. DEN Nickeil Alexander-Walker Sophomore Virginia Tech 6-5 PG/SG 19.7
23. NOP Kris Wilkes Sophomore UCLA 6-7 SF 19.7
24. TOR Shamorie Ponds Junior St. John's 6-1 PG 19.9
25. SAS Lindell Wigginton Sophomore Iowa St 6-2 PG 20.2
26. UTA Jalen McDaniels Sophomore San Diego St 6-9 SF/PF 20.3
27. BOS Tyus Battle Junior Syracuse 6-7 SF 20.7
28. PHI Carsen Edwards Junior Purdue 6-0 PG 20.2
29. HOU Charles Matthews Junior Michigan 6-6 SF 21.5
30. GSW Jarrey Foster Senior SMU 6-6 SF 21.5
31. ATL Marko Simonovic International Olimpija Ljubljana 7-0 PF/C 18.6
32. PHI (via SAC) Aric Holman Senior Mississippi St. 6-10 PF 20.9
33. ORL Oshae Brissett Sophomore Syracuse 6-9 PF 19.9
34. DAL Isaiah Roby Junior Nebraska 6-8 SF/PF 20.3
35. PHX Terence Davis Senior Mississippi 6-4 SG 21
36. ORL (via BKN) Admiral Schofield Senior Tennessee 6-5 SF/PF 21.2
37. BKN (via NYK) Kerwin Roach II Senior Texas 6-3 PG/SG 21.6
38. MEM Brandon Randolph Sophomore Arizona 6-6 SG 20.7
39. LAL (via CHI) John Petty Sophomore Alabama 6-5 SG 19.5
40. ATL (via CHA) Sagaba Konate Junior West Virginia 6-8 C 20.7
41. LAC Ky Bowman Junior Boston College 6-1 PG/SG 21
42. PHI (via DET) Xavier Sneed Junior Kansas St 6-5 SG 20.4
43. MIN (via MIA) James Palmer Senior Nebraska 6-6 SF 21.8
44. SAC (via CLE) Markis McDuffie Senior Wichita St 6-8 SF 20.7
45. DEN (via WAS) Goga Bitadze International Mega Bemax 6-11 C 18.9
46. LAC (via POR) Killian Tillie Junior Gonzaga 6-10 PF/C 20.1
47. OKC Jalen Hudson Senior Florida 6-5 SG 22
48. POR (via LAL) Udoka Azubuike Junior Kansas 6-11 C 18.7
49. SAC (via MIL) Cameron Johnson Senior North Carolina 6-7 SF 22.2
50. IND D'Marcus Simonds Junior Georgia St 6-3 PG/SG 20.6
51. ATL (via MIN) Bruno Fernando Sophomore Maryland 6-10 C 19.8
52. DEN David Okeke International PMS Torino 6-9 PF 19.7
53. NOP Tadas Sedekerskis International Baskonia 6-10 SF 20.4
54. TOR Amine Noua International Villeurbanne 6-8 PF 21.3
55. SAS Karim Jallow International N/A 6-7 SF 21.1
56. UTA Gabriel Galvanini International Bauru 6-8 SF/PF 19.7
57. MEM (via BOS) Lamar Peters Junior Mississippi St. 6-0 PG 19.9
58. PHI Matisse Thybulle Senior Washington 6-5 SG 21.2
59. NYK (via HOU) Shakur Juiston Senior UNLV 6-7 PF 21.2
60. DAL (via GSW) Brian Bowen N/A N/A 6-7 SF 19.7
Team Player Year School Height Position Age
1. ATL R.J. Barrett Freshman Duke 6-7 SF 18.0
2. BOS (via SAC) Nassir Little Freshman North Carolina 6-6 SF 18.3
3. ORL Sekou Doumbouya International Limoges 6-9 PF 17.4
4. DAL Cam Reddish Freshman Duke 6-9 SF 18.7
5. PHX Romeo Langford Freshman Indiana 6-6 SG 18.6
6. BKN Quentin Grimes Freshman Kansas 6-4 SG 18.1
7. NYK Zion Williamson Freshman Duke 6-6 PF 17.9
8. MEM Darius Garland Freshman Vanderbilt 6-0 PG 18.3
9. CHI De'Andre Hunter Sophomore Virginia 6-8 PF 20.5
10. CHA Daniel Gafford Sophomore Arkansas 6-11 C 19.7
11. LAC Jontay Porter Sophomore Missouri 6-10 C 18.5
12. DET Bol Bol Freshman Oregon 7-2 C 18.5
13. MIA Keldon Johnson Freshman Kentucky 6-6 SF 18.6
14. ATL (via CLE) Rui Hachimura Sophomore Gonzaga 6-8 PF 20.3
15. WAS Luka Samanic International Olimpija Ljubljana 6-11 PF 18.4
16. POR Jalen Smith Freshman Maryland 6-10 PF 18.2
17. OKC Herb Jones Sophomore Alabama 6-7 SF 19.6
18. LAL Darius Bazley G-League N/A 6-9 SF/PF 18.0
19. MIL Charles Bassey Freshman Western Kentucky 6-10 C 17.6
20. IND P.J. Washington Sophomore Kentucky 6-8 PF 19.8
21. MIN Jarrett Culver Sophomore Texas Tech 6-5 SG 19.3
22. DEN Nickeil Alexander-Walker Sophomore Virginia Tech 6-5 PG/SG 19.7
23. NOP Kris Wilkes Sophomore UCLA 6-7 SF 19.7
24. TOR Shamorie Ponds Junior St. John's 6-1 PG 19.9
25. SAS Lindell Wigginton Sophomore Iowa St 6-2 PG 20.2
26. UTA Jalen McDaniels Sophomore San Diego St 6-9 SF/PF 20.3
27. BOS Tyus Battle Junior Syracuse 6-7 SF 20.7
28. PHI Carsen Edwards Junior Purdue 6-0 PG 20.2
29. HOU Charles Matthews Junior Michigan 6-6 SF 21.5
30. GSW Jarrey Foster Senior SMU 6-6 SF 21.5
31. ATL Marko Simonovic International Olimpija Ljubljana 7-0 PF/C 18.6
32. PHI (via SAC) Aric Holman Senior Mississippi St. 6-10 PF 20.9
33. ORL Oshae Brissett Sophomore Syracuse 6-9 PF 19.9
34. DAL Isaiah Roby Junior Nebraska 6-8 SF/PF 20.3
35. PHX Terence Davis Senior Mississippi 6-4 SG 21
36. ORL (via BKN) Admiral Schofield Senior Tennessee 6-5 SF/PF 21.2
37. BKN (via NYK) Kerwin Roach II Senior Texas 6-3 PG/SG 21.6
38. MEM Brandon Randolph Sophomore Arizona 6-6 SG 20.7
39. LAL (via CHI) John Petty Sophomore Alabama 6-5 SG 19.5
40. ATL (via CHA) Sagaba Konate Junior West Virginia 6-8 C 20.7
41. LAC Ky Bowman Junior Boston College 6-1 PG/SG 21
42. PHI (via DET) Xavier Sneed Junior Kansas St 6-5 SG 20.4
43. MIN (via MIA) James Palmer Senior Nebraska 6-6 SF 21.8
44. SAC (via CLE) Markis McDuffie Senior Wichita St 6-8 SF 20.7
45. DEN (via WAS) Goga Bitadze International Mega Bemax 6-11 C 18.9
46. LAC (via POR) Killian Tillie Junior Gonzaga 6-10 PF/C 20.1
47. OKC Jalen Hudson Senior Florida 6-5 SG 22
48. POR (via LAL) Udoka Azubuike Junior Kansas 6-11 C 18.7
49. SAC (via MIL) Cameron Johnson Senior North Carolina 6-7 SF 22.2
50. IND D'Marcus Simonds Junior Georgia St 6-3 PG/SG 20.6
51. ATL (via MIN) Bruno Fernando Sophomore Maryland 6-10 C 19.8
52. DEN David Okeke International PMS Torino 6-9 PF 19.7
53. NOP Tadas Sedekerskis International Baskonia 6-10 SF 20.4
54. TOR Amine Noua International Villeurbanne 6-8 PF 21.3
55. SAS Karim Jallow International N/A 6-7 SF 21.1
56. UTA Gabriel Galvanini International Bauru 6-8 SF/PF 19.7
57. MEM (via BOS) Lamar Peters Junior Mississippi St. 6-0 PG 19.9
58. PHI Matisse Thybulle Senior Washington 6-5 SG 21.2
59. NYK (via HOU) Shakur Juiston Senior UNLV 6-7 PF 21.2
60. DAL (via GSW) Brian Bowen N/A N/A 6-7 SF 19.7
TIER 1
A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations.
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 1 1 1 1
2018 tier average: 1.00
Rodgers has averaged 4.1 touchdown passes per interception over his 10 seasons as a starter. The ratio is 1.8-1 for the other 29 quarterbacks with at least 2,000 pass attempts in that same span. Brady (3.9) is the only other QB even remotely close. Fellow Tier 1 QBs Drew Brees (2.4) and Ben Roethlisberger (2.0) lag far behind. Those are striking differences for elite players within the same era.
But now that Rodgers has missed 16 games over the past five seasons, there are questions to answer. Is durability a heightened concern as Rodgers approaches his 35th birthday this December? Will he need to reduce the number of off-schedule plays that have put him at risk of injury?
"Look at the injuries that cost Rodgers those 16 games -- every one was outside the pocket," a voter said. "Rodgers knows that. He is smart. If he starts limiting that, he could be like Brady -- in shape, fit, into his nutrition and able to be an elite performer into his late 30s. Because remember, if you're in the pocket, they can't hit you high, they can't hit you low and they can't hit you from more than a step-and-a-half away."
Fair enough, but if Rodgers cuts down on those off-schedule plays, how much less effective will he become? This voter had an answer for that question as well.
"Because Rodgers is so dangerous outside the pocket," the voter said, "people think he is especially reliant on that part of his game. What they don't realize is that Rodgers does most of his damage on schedule from inside the pocket, where only Brady and Brees are as good. This guy has the quickest release and livest ball in the league across every throw type imaginable."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 1 1 1 1
2018 tier average: 1.00
Brady passed for 505 yards in Super Bowl LII at age 40, nearly overcoming a terrible performance from the Patriots' defense and the injury loss of No. 1 wide receiver Brandin Cooks. He could be getting better. Even his biggest disappointments speak well of him.
"He has won five Super Bowls, but think about the Super Bowls they lost," a defensive coach said. "People forget, against the [2007] Giants, in the fourth quarter, he marched them down, he scored a touchdown and it took a helmet catch [by David Tyree] to win. They sacked him six times, hit him like 11 times -- it was the best defensive performance you could ever have had, and the guy still almost won the game."
What more can be said about Brady? I'll share three additional comments from voters this offseason.
- Offensive coordinator: "It looks like he is getting better. He is such a quick decision-maker, he is so accurate, they keep expanding what they are doing, the burden is on him, they don't play good defense anymore. He carries that team."
- GM: "The thing that is cool about Brady and people on the outside don't understand about the NFL is, it is the person he is. It is the leadership he brings to that building. He makes everybody excited about working there, playing on Sundays. Is he an a--h--- sometimes? We all are. But he exudes success and confidence. That is so hard to find in a quarterback."
- Defensive coordinator: "Bill Belichick is an outstanding coach. If that guy [Brady] is not quarterbacking, then he is like the rest of us, trying to get our s--- together. Brady is just a special dude. The guy understands going back to college that he has to compete for everything all the time. That is what makes him great."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 1 6 5 4
2018 tier average: 1.12
A common read on Brees is that he has declined physically and the clock is ticking louder for him than for Brady, but he's still good enough to remain in the top tier. As one personnel director put it, Brees might not play at a Tier 1 level for 16 weeks or even for full games, but he usually reaches that level when he needs to reach it.
"I thought he was done three years ago," a tiers voter said. "Give Sean Payton credit. They are running the s--- out of the ball. It helps protect him. It gives him really big windows to throw into. It is brilliant."
Another Brees admirer who studied the Saints' 2017 game at Lambeau Field thought it was increasingly important that the future Hall of Famer plays indoors at least 10 games each season, shielding his surgically repaired throwing shoulder from the elements. This voter said Brees' passes fluttered in that game, which New Orleans put away with a quarterback sneak for a touchdown after Brees threw two interceptions inside the Green Bay 40.
"Brees is a 1, but he is on a heavy decline," this voter said. "I have a hard time doubting that guy because of who he is, but his arm talent is not near what it used to be. There are throws where if he doesn't make them on time, he can't make them anymore, whereas before it was, 'Oh, s---, Drew Brees is coming to town.'"
The percentage of Brees' passes traveling at least 10 yards past the line of scrimmage has declined each of the past four seasons, reaching 25 percent in 2017, the lowest for Brees in his 12 seasons with the Saints. However, a quarterbacks coach said he didn't think Brees' arm was limiting the team's offense.
"When you throw it to 41 [Alvin Kamara], you are not throwing it down the field," another quarterbacks coach said. "You are throwing short screens and option routes."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 7 4 3 3
2018 tier average: 1.40
This is the second year in a row Roethlisberger finished with 30 votes in Tier 1 and 20 in Tier 2. He's a 1, except when he is not.
"He is a 1 and I think it will show up a little bit more this year," an offensive coordinator said. "They have put the burden on him and they will try to take it off just a hair this year."
Voters acknowledge Roethlisberger's talent and production while wondering how much more consistent he might be if he were as maniacal in his preparation as the other Tier 1 QBs.
"You could make an argument that he is a 2 because he doesn't play very good on the road, but with his production and what they have done offensively, I think he is a 1," a quarterbacks coach said. "Now, he does not take care of his body very well. He is so naturally gifted, but I think once it goes, it will go fast."
Roethlisberger's 0-2 record at home against Jacksonville last season and five picks in just one of those games bolstered the perception among some that he's too careless with the ball.
"He was always a 1 in my eyes, but I'm going to take him down to a 2," a tiers voter said. "Going into our game against Pittsburgh, we said, 'This guy is going to make 4-5 bad decisions. We just have to catch the ball when he throws it to us.'"
TIER 2
A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes, but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 8 11 13 5
2018 tier average: 1.62
The Falcons, trailing 15-10 with 6 minutes remaining in their divisional playoff game at Philadelphia last season, marched into position for the go-ahead touchdown. After securing first-and-goal from the 9 with 1 minute, 19 seconds left, Matt Ryan threw three incomplete passes as Atlanta turned over the ball on downs. That finish, and the way the Falcons finished their Super Bowl collapse against New England a year earlier, hurt perceptions.
"Matt Ryan was a hard one for me," a defensive coordinator said. "I put him as a 1 initially, but I changed him to a 2 because of the playoff stuff. They haven't won the Super Bowl. To me, if you are a 1, you have won a Super Bowl or you are just so talented that your team is playing bad around you and you didn't have a chance to do it."
Ryan's 20 touchdown passes in 2017 were his fewest in a season since he threw 16 as a rookie. He received 19 Tier 1 votes, seven fewer than he received last year, when he was coming off his 2016 MVP season.
"Honestly, I really like him," an offensive coordinator said. "It just seems to me in those tough, crunch times, something gets in the way."
Ryan is the only quarterback with a playoff victory among the top four in annual salary average; he has four, while Kirk Cousins, Garoppolo and Matthew Stafford have zero. Ryan also has six playoff defeats.
"He is probably better than I give him credit for, but I just see inconsistency with him," an offensive assistant said. "He is not a real good foot athlete. He cannot easily avoid. But he can throw the crud out of it and he has had a lot of success. He lines up and plays every week -- every week -- and plays good enough."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 8 8 6 10
2018 tier average: 1.72
It was tougher for Russell Wilson to win over voters when the Seahawks' defense was historically great and opposing defensive coordinators focused on slowing a Marshawn Lynch-led running game. How much was really on Wilson's shoulders? The erosion of talent in Seattle has forced him to carry more of the load. He has done it well enough to command 15 Tier 1 votes this year, five times as many as he did last offseason.
"This past year, to me, he carried the team," a former GM said. "He was their best player and in my estimation he took it to another level. He might be a guy that is sometimes a 1, sometimes a 2. Last year, I thought he was a 1."
A team that was once defined by strong defensive personalities has been transformed.
"A lot of guys there thought they should be the alpha males, but the bottom line is, at the end of the game, everybody is looking at that guy [Wilson] to do it, and he gets it done a ton," a defensive coordinator said.
The Seahawks have a 29-18-1 record (.615) since Wilson signed his four-year, $87.6 million extension in 2015, down from 36-12 (.750) when his team-friendly rookie deal made it easier for them to funnel resources elsewhere on the roster.
Some voters questioned whether Wilson's high-profile pursuit of opportunities unrelated to football made him less focused on self-improvement than he was early in his career.
"He has been through two years of hell and he has driven his team to as much success as they can possibly have, with a horrible offensive line," an offensive coordinator said. "I do not remember him complaining about any of it. Now, I don't agree with him doing all these look-at-me things in the spring, like the ESPN show and Major League Baseball, but when it is time for the season, he is ready for the season. At least he does that."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 13 12 14 8
2018 tier average: 1.74
Stafford matched Wilson with 15 Tier 1 votes. There is no meaningful separation between those two in terms of the voting breakdown, but the raw talent Stafford possesses makes him a more inviting target for criticism in the absence of a playoff victory over nine NFL seasons.
"He is so talented, but here is my issue," a defensive coordinator said. "They should have been scoring lots of points and they never did. It falls on him. He is a 1 talent, but between a 2 and 3 performer. He has gotten more disciplined, but sometimes he freelances and it takes him a while to get it back. Then, if it's late in the game and the coverage gets generic in 2-minute, it is like, 'Boom, he gets hot.'"
The Lions rank 13th in offensive points per game over the past three seasons. Stafford, for his part, set an NFL record in 2016 with eight fourth-quarter comeback victories, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.
"Detroit is going to be at least .500 every year with that guy [Stafford] and most years you win 9-10 games and be in the playoffs," a GM who placed Stafford in Tier 1 said.
The Lions are 25th in ESPN's defensive-efficiency metric since Stafford entered the league in 2009. Ryan's Falcons and Brees' Saints have won playoff games and reached Super Bowls despite ranking lower over the same period.
"Stafford doesn't necessarily get the results as far as overall wins and playoffs," a voter said, "but he probably has more responsibility on him and has for his entire career than almost all the other quarterbacks."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 6 7 8 8
2018 tier average: 1.80
It was tough to blame Philip Rivers for the Chargers' playoff absence last season when their special-teams issues were so pronounced, especially with Rivers reducing his interception total to 11 from a league-high 21 the previous season. The reduction in turnovers could explain why 15 voters placed Rivers in the top tier, up from eight last offseason. That made Rivers one of the biggest gainers in Tier 1 votes, behind only Wilson, Carson Wentz and Stafford.
"I have watched him and he can still do everything," a head coach said. "He is fearless with the ball and doesn't care who the receivers are. You can put me out there and he is going to come after you. It is ridiculous."
That fearless mentality does not always serve the Chargers well. The Chargers are 6-18 against the AFC West over the past four seasons. Rivers has six touchdown passes with 13 interceptions in an ongoing eight-game losing streak to Kansas City.
"I always feel like he is calling the game by himself out there," an opposing coach said. "I think he sees the field good. He is a tremendous competitor. Results-wise, I don't see it. Are you scared to death every time you play him? Yeah, I am, but if you look at what he has done, some of the interceptions are just crazy."
Defensive coordinators said they relished and dreaded matching wits against Rivers.
"You better be on your s---, now," one of these coordinators said. "He is going to know all your s---. We played him one year, we had a check, we made the check and he knew the check. He threw a touchdown and he was giving us our check back, like, 'Here it is, f--- you guys.'"
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank NA NA NA 21
2018 tier average: 1.84
Only Goff enjoyed a larger gain from last offseason among returning quarterbacks. Wentz's 1.1-point improvement from a 2.9 average vote to a 1.8 likely would have been even greater if he had been the Eagles' quarterback during their Super Bowl-winning playoff run.
"I think he is a 2 that will be a 1, and then once he is a 1, it looks like he has a lot of the traits like Brady," a Super Bowl-winning coordinator said. "You'd just like to see him do it more."
A personnel director was one of 12 voters to place Wentz in the top tier already.
"Obviously, he had the knee, but if healthy and all that stuff, he's a 1," this director said. "He has a little backyard in him, but he is a very poised passer, a really gifted runner and he has the arm to make all the throws. He is confident, doesn't get rattled, does all the things that you want, and his team -- the players -- they gravitate to him."
A quarterbacks coach who placed Wentz in the second tier noted that most teams would be in trouble if they lost a Tier 1 quarterback. The Eagles flourished.
"He was slightly above average as a rookie," another voter placing Wentz in the third tier said. "He played 12 games and part of a 13th game last year. With all these guys, we should ask what they would be with an average supporting cast, average coaching, an average defense and an average kicking game. Remember how excited people were about Derek Carr a year ago? These young guys should be slow to ascend. What's the rush?"
Eagles backup Nick Foles doesn't have his own entry here because he's not the projected starter, but I did include him in the survey. He landed solidly in the third tier between Joe Flacco and Tyrod Taylor, pulling five votes in the second tier, 34 in the third and 11 in the fourth.
"He is a 3 and I could rationalize putting him as a 2 because he is a better thrower than anybody gives him credit for," an offensive coach said of Foles.
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 5 3 7 6
2018 tier average: 1.94
Voters weren't sure how to handle Andrew Luck. Some assumed, for the sake of the exercise, that he would be healthy and near 100 percent by Week 1. Others assumed he would need time to re-establish himself. Nearly everyone feared Luck might suffer additional setbacks that would keep him off the field even longer. It wasn't until after the voting was finished that the Colts announced Luck had been cleared for training camp without limitation.
"The big wild card there, beyond the health, is the offensive scheme they are going to run," a voter said. "Yes, they need players and must fix their line, but they also need to get the ball out of his hands. If they do that, and I expect them to do that, they can help him out."
Luck remained solidly in the second tier even though his average vote fell by 0.22. He was the only quarterback who received more than five votes in each of the top three tiers. Here's a sampling of voters' perspectives based on which tier they placed Luck in:
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 16 14 4 12
2018 tier average: 2.30
The drop from Luck (1.94 average) to Cam Newton (2.30) is the largest from one quarterback to the next in the survey. It's not that Newton has plummeted. His average was unchanged from last year. Wilson, Stafford, Rivers and Wentz simply pulled away from him. Those four combined for 31 more Tier 1 votes than they commanded a year ago. (There were 31 additional Tier 1 votes overall).
"Cam is a 2-slash-3 who probably fits more in the 3 category," a defensive backs coach said. "The defense has always been consistent there, and Cam has really only hit it two years since he has been there. He is close. He can almost be a 2, but I would say a 3 for the inconsistency."
Newton's 78.4 passer rating over the past two seasons ranks last among 25 quarterbacks with at least 20 starts over that span, below Trevor Siemian (79.2) and Blake Bortles (81.5). Newton is 21st in Total QBR (47.4), 24th in touchdown-to-interception ratio (1.3) and last in completion percentage (56.4) over that period. But when Newton is dialed in, he can be a unique force. He just hasn't done it as consistently.
Newton and Garoppolo were the only quarterbacks to receive a vote in each of first four tiers. While there remains uncertainty over Garoppolo, most voters have made up their minds on Newton. All but four placed Newton in the second (30) or third (16) tiers. The 10 quarterbacks ahead of Newton all commanded at least a dozen Tier 1 votes. Newton drew three.
"Ron Wolf always talked about the most important thing for a quarterback being that when he walked on the field, it tilted in his favor," an evaluator who placed Newton in the top tier said. "I know Cam is a little unorthodox and everyone wants him to be a better passer, but he can carry his team each week. He is, for sure, a difference-maker and it has been that way since college, where he took what was basically a 6-6 Auburn team to a 12-0 national championship season."
A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes, but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 8 11 13 5
2018 tier average: 1.62
The Falcons, trailing 15-10 with 6 minutes remaining in their divisional playoff game at Philadelphia last season, marched into position for the go-ahead touchdown. After securing first-and-goal from the 9 with 1 minute, 19 seconds left, Matt Ryan threw three incomplete passes as Atlanta turned over the ball on downs. That finish, and the way the Falcons finished their Super Bowl collapse against New England a year earlier, hurt perceptions.
"Matt Ryan was a hard one for me," a defensive coordinator said. "I put him as a 1 initially, but I changed him to a 2 because of the playoff stuff. They haven't won the Super Bowl. To me, if you are a 1, you have won a Super Bowl or you are just so talented that your team is playing bad around you and you didn't have a chance to do it."
Ryan's 20 touchdown passes in 2017 were his fewest in a season since he threw 16 as a rookie. He received 19 Tier 1 votes, seven fewer than he received last year, when he was coming off his 2016 MVP season.
"Honestly, I really like him," an offensive coordinator said. "It just seems to me in those tough, crunch times, something gets in the way."
Ryan is the only quarterback with a playoff victory among the top four in annual salary average; he has four, while Kirk Cousins, Garoppolo and Matthew Stafford have zero. Ryan also has six playoff defeats.
"He is probably better than I give him credit for, but I just see inconsistency with him," an offensive assistant said. "He is not a real good foot athlete. He cannot easily avoid. But he can throw the crud out of it and he has had a lot of success. He lines up and plays every week -- every week -- and plays good enough."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 8 8 6 10
2018 tier average: 1.72
It was tougher for Russell Wilson to win over voters when the Seahawks' defense was historically great and opposing defensive coordinators focused on slowing a Marshawn Lynch-led running game. How much was really on Wilson's shoulders? The erosion of talent in Seattle has forced him to carry more of the load. He has done it well enough to command 15 Tier 1 votes this year, five times as many as he did last offseason.
"This past year, to me, he carried the team," a former GM said. "He was their best player and in my estimation he took it to another level. He might be a guy that is sometimes a 1, sometimes a 2. Last year, I thought he was a 1."
A team that was once defined by strong defensive personalities has been transformed.
"A lot of guys there thought they should be the alpha males, but the bottom line is, at the end of the game, everybody is looking at that guy [Wilson] to do it, and he gets it done a ton," a defensive coordinator said.
The Seahawks have a 29-18-1 record (.615) since Wilson signed his four-year, $87.6 million extension in 2015, down from 36-12 (.750) when his team-friendly rookie deal made it easier for them to funnel resources elsewhere on the roster.
Some voters questioned whether Wilson's high-profile pursuit of opportunities unrelated to football made him less focused on self-improvement than he was early in his career.
"He has been through two years of hell and he has driven his team to as much success as they can possibly have, with a horrible offensive line," an offensive coordinator said. "I do not remember him complaining about any of it. Now, I don't agree with him doing all these look-at-me things in the spring, like the ESPN show and Major League Baseball, but when it is time for the season, he is ready for the season. At least he does that."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 13 12 14 8
2018 tier average: 1.74
Stafford matched Wilson with 15 Tier 1 votes. There is no meaningful separation between those two in terms of the voting breakdown, but the raw talent Stafford possesses makes him a more inviting target for criticism in the absence of a playoff victory over nine NFL seasons.
"He is so talented, but here is my issue," a defensive coordinator said. "They should have been scoring lots of points and they never did. It falls on him. He is a 1 talent, but between a 2 and 3 performer. He has gotten more disciplined, but sometimes he freelances and it takes him a while to get it back. Then, if it's late in the game and the coverage gets generic in 2-minute, it is like, 'Boom, he gets hot.'"
The Lions rank 13th in offensive points per game over the past three seasons. Stafford, for his part, set an NFL record in 2016 with eight fourth-quarter comeback victories, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.
"Detroit is going to be at least .500 every year with that guy [Stafford] and most years you win 9-10 games and be in the playoffs," a GM who placed Stafford in Tier 1 said.
The Lions are 25th in ESPN's defensive-efficiency metric since Stafford entered the league in 2009. Ryan's Falcons and Brees' Saints have won playoff games and reached Super Bowls despite ranking lower over the same period.
"Stafford doesn't necessarily get the results as far as overall wins and playoffs," a voter said, "but he probably has more responsibility on him and has for his entire career than almost all the other quarterbacks."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 6 7 8 8
2018 tier average: 1.80
It was tough to blame Philip Rivers for the Chargers' playoff absence last season when their special-teams issues were so pronounced, especially with Rivers reducing his interception total to 11 from a league-high 21 the previous season. The reduction in turnovers could explain why 15 voters placed Rivers in the top tier, up from eight last offseason. That made Rivers one of the biggest gainers in Tier 1 votes, behind only Wilson, Carson Wentz and Stafford.
"I have watched him and he can still do everything," a head coach said. "He is fearless with the ball and doesn't care who the receivers are. You can put me out there and he is going to come after you. It is ridiculous."
That fearless mentality does not always serve the Chargers well. The Chargers are 6-18 against the AFC West over the past four seasons. Rivers has six touchdown passes with 13 interceptions in an ongoing eight-game losing streak to Kansas City.
"I always feel like he is calling the game by himself out there," an opposing coach said. "I think he sees the field good. He is a tremendous competitor. Results-wise, I don't see it. Are you scared to death every time you play him? Yeah, I am, but if you look at what he has done, some of the interceptions are just crazy."
Defensive coordinators said they relished and dreaded matching wits against Rivers.
"You better be on your s---, now," one of these coordinators said. "He is going to know all your s---. We played him one year, we had a check, we made the check and he knew the check. He threw a touchdown and he was giving us our check back, like, 'Here it is, f--- you guys.'"
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank NA NA NA 21
2018 tier average: 1.84
Only Goff enjoyed a larger gain from last offseason among returning quarterbacks. Wentz's 1.1-point improvement from a 2.9 average vote to a 1.8 likely would have been even greater if he had been the Eagles' quarterback during their Super Bowl-winning playoff run.
"I think he is a 2 that will be a 1, and then once he is a 1, it looks like he has a lot of the traits like Brady," a Super Bowl-winning coordinator said. "You'd just like to see him do it more."
A personnel director was one of 12 voters to place Wentz in the top tier already.
"Obviously, he had the knee, but if healthy and all that stuff, he's a 1," this director said. "He has a little backyard in him, but he is a very poised passer, a really gifted runner and he has the arm to make all the throws. He is confident, doesn't get rattled, does all the things that you want, and his team -- the players -- they gravitate to him."
A quarterbacks coach who placed Wentz in the second tier noted that most teams would be in trouble if they lost a Tier 1 quarterback. The Eagles flourished.
"He was slightly above average as a rookie," another voter placing Wentz in the third tier said. "He played 12 games and part of a 13th game last year. With all these guys, we should ask what they would be with an average supporting cast, average coaching, an average defense and an average kicking game. Remember how excited people were about Derek Carr a year ago? These young guys should be slow to ascend. What's the rush?"
Eagles backup Nick Foles doesn't have his own entry here because he's not the projected starter, but I did include him in the survey. He landed solidly in the third tier between Joe Flacco and Tyrod Taylor, pulling five votes in the second tier, 34 in the third and 11 in the fourth.
"He is a 3 and I could rationalize putting him as a 2 because he is a better thrower than anybody gives him credit for," an offensive coach said of Foles.
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 5 3 7 6
2018 tier average: 1.94
Voters weren't sure how to handle Andrew Luck. Some assumed, for the sake of the exercise, that he would be healthy and near 100 percent by Week 1. Others assumed he would need time to re-establish himself. Nearly everyone feared Luck might suffer additional setbacks that would keep him off the field even longer. It wasn't until after the voting was finished that the Colts announced Luck had been cleared for training camp without limitation.
"The big wild card there, beyond the health, is the offensive scheme they are going to run," a voter said. "Yes, they need players and must fix their line, but they also need to get the ball out of his hands. If they do that, and I expect them to do that, they can help him out."
Luck remained solidly in the second tier even though his average vote fell by 0.22. He was the only quarterback who received more than five votes in each of the top three tiers. Here's a sampling of voters' perspectives based on which tier they placed Luck in:
- Tier 1 Luck voter: "I'm keeping him there until he proves me differently. He is one of those guys where his team is never out of a game."
- Tier 2 Luck voter: "I've gotta go 2 just because of his career, but he could be a nothing. He hasn't played in how many months? But you have to give him the benefit of the doubt because when he was playing, he was a stud."
- Tier 3 Luck voter: "I'll say 3 because he has played well in the past, but to me, he is almost a 4 in the sense that he is unproven after the injury."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 16 14 4 12
2018 tier average: 2.30
The drop from Luck (1.94 average) to Cam Newton (2.30) is the largest from one quarterback to the next in the survey. It's not that Newton has plummeted. His average was unchanged from last year. Wilson, Stafford, Rivers and Wentz simply pulled away from him. Those four combined for 31 more Tier 1 votes than they commanded a year ago. (There were 31 additional Tier 1 votes overall).
"Cam is a 2-slash-3 who probably fits more in the 3 category," a defensive backs coach said. "The defense has always been consistent there, and Cam has really only hit it two years since he has been there. He is close. He can almost be a 2, but I would say a 3 for the inconsistency."
Newton's 78.4 passer rating over the past two seasons ranks last among 25 quarterbacks with at least 20 starts over that span, below Trevor Siemian (79.2) and Blake Bortles (81.5). Newton is 21st in Total QBR (47.4), 24th in touchdown-to-interception ratio (1.3) and last in completion percentage (56.4) over that period. But when Newton is dialed in, he can be a unique force. He just hasn't done it as consistently.
Newton and Garoppolo were the only quarterbacks to receive a vote in each of first four tiers. While there remains uncertainty over Garoppolo, most voters have made up their minds on Newton. All but four placed Newton in the second (30) or third (16) tiers. The 10 quarterbacks ahead of Newton all commanded at least a dozen Tier 1 votes. Newton drew three.
"Ron Wolf always talked about the most important thing for a quarterback being that when he walked on the field, it tilted in his favor," an evaluator who placed Newton in the top tier said. "I know Cam is a little unorthodox and everyone wants him to be a better passer, but he can carry his team each week. He is, for sure, a difference-maker and it has been that way since college, where he took what was basically a 6-6 Auburn team to a 12-0 national championship season."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank NA 20 16 7
2018 tier average: 2.42
Carr suffered the second-largest decline from 2017 to 2018 in average tier rating (1.9 to 2.42). Only Manning's average fell by more.
"He came back to reality," said an offensive coordinator who has had Carr in the third tier all along. "I thought he would. I think he's a 3 and I don't know that he will ever have a year like he did when everyone got so excited about him."
Carr's talent is undeniable. He's athletic and can make difficult throws from odd angles. He did not fare as well last season after the Raiders fired offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave and struggled to generate a rushing attack behind an offensive line that wasn't as good.
"If everybody is healthy, they win with him at quarterback," a GM who placed Carr in the second tier said. "If they have injuries, I don't know if he is the type of guy who can make them win anyway. I'm not saying he won't get there."
After rehabbing from a broken leg last offseason, Carr suffered a back injury against Denver in October.
"The year he played really well, they were playing well on the line and keeping guys off him," another voter said. "He started getting hit. That is what he showed in college. You start getting to him, he starts missing throws even when he is not getting hit. It affects him."
Some wondered how the deeply religious Carr would handle potentially harsh coaching from Jon Gruden. There was also some question as to whether Carr would be as comfortable in a system that could feature tighter formations, although no one knew for sure what Gruden's offense would look like.
"He throws a really pretty ball," a GM who has been skeptical of Carr said. "Is he a good leader? Is he tough? I think you can pressure him and he gets rattled easily. He needs a quick passing game. Otherwise, he is not going to hang in there."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank NA NA NA NA
2018 tier average: 2.58
Garoppolo and Watson have lower average tier ratings than Alex Smith and Cousins, who head up the third tier. Garoppolo and Watson sneak into the second tier because that is the tier in which they received the most votes.
Garoppolo looked the part while seeming to instantly turn around the 49ers, but he made only five starts, which wasn't much to go on.
"I would make him a 3, which I think is a generous grade for a guy who hasn't played very much," a former GM said. "He won a bunch of throwaway games. But I do like his fit for that offense. You've gotta be smart, you've gotta be a good ball handler, you've gotta be able to throw on the run. Garoppolo has all those things, so I think he is going to do well."
Garoppolo joined Newton as the only quarterbacks to receive at least one vote in each of the top four tiers. The four votes Garoppolo received in the fourth tier came from voters who thought there wasn't enough evidence.
"Tier 3 is fair [for Garoppolo], but it's too early to tell," an offensive coordinator said. "I think there is a better chance he's got that big upside than not, but he could be Kirk Cousins, too."
Multiple offensive coordinators said they thought what Garoppolo put on tape suggested he could reach the top tier eventually.
"That style of player, that quick-twitch kind of guy, is really exciting," one of them said. "It is just reactions to things that happen to him -- not sluggish. And then when you add instincts on top of that, where you can see things happen before they happen, and you are quick and you throw with anticipation into holes that are not there yet, then you have a real chance."
Garoppolo had seven touchdown passes with five interceptions last season, hardly the type of ratio typically associated with top-tier QBs (Rodgers had 38 touchdowns with five picks during the 2014 season, for example). Garoppolo averaged 8.8 yards per pass attempt, however, and he was second -- to Watson! -- in Total QBR among players with at least 175 pass attempts.
"Garoppolo fit the Gil Brandt college formula coming out [27-plus starts, 26-plus Wonderlic, 60 percent completions]," said the lone voter who placed Garoppolo in the top tier. "He throws a runner's ball, always leading the receiver to where he should be. It looks like he understands defensive schemes -- not like my other Tier 1 guys, but better than my Tier 2s. Throw in a full offseason with Kyle Shanahan and I'm comfortable saying Tier 1."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank NA NA NA NA
2018 tier average: 2.60
The voting results easily could be interpreted in a manner that would have pushed Garoppolo and Watson into the third tier. They had lower averages than Cousins and Smith, after all. Either way, the excitement over these potentially dynamic young players is real. With Watson, the torn ACL he suffered last season complicates an already tricky evaluation.
"To me, he is like the guy from Philly [Wentz]," an evaluator said. "Let's just see if he can get through the year healthy. He played like a 1 when he played. These teams are doing a great job doing what guys can do, playing to their strengths. The league has gotten better at that. Whether guys can stay healthy playing that way, that would be my question."
Watson suffered his injury during practice, without contact, so it's tough to blame his playing style.
"I give him an optimistic 3," an offensive coordinator said. "There were a lot of good things, but also a lot of bad things that got glossed over. It was a little bit of his legend. Even the games where they scored a lot of points, he made some horrendous throws that he got away with. Do I think he is talented? Yes. Do I like him? Yes. I just think he is a 3 that could become a 2."
Watson, paired with a Houston defense that ranked 30th for the season in ESPN's efficiency metric, went 3-3 in his six starts. He had 19 touchdowns, eight interceptions, a 103.0 passer rating and 81.3 Total QBR overall.
Dak Prescott as the only quarterbacks to receive all their votes in the second and third tiers.
"He is smart, has enough elusiveness, got a quick release and is not going to stand back there nursing the ball," a voter said, "but I haven't seen him be able to put the team on his back and just will himself to a win."
Cousins could go from being an overachiever in relation to his fourth-round draft pedigree to being an underachiever in relation to his fully guaranteed $84 million contract, but he is not alone. Four of the six highest-paid quarterbacks in the league have never won a playoff game. That includes Cousins.
"My biggest problem with Cousins is he is just so unaggressive in the pocket," an offensive coordinator said. "When people get around him and they squeeze in, he looks like he weighs 160. That was Case Keenum's strength. He made more plays out of plays that could have been a sack. I don't know if Cousins makes those plays, but Cousins will get some balls thrown quicker."
Some voters thought Cousins was also more accurate than Keenum.
"Cousins has had no run game at all the last couple years and has been really productive," a personnel director said. "You put him in Minnesota and think ideally he will be a better player. As far as the Super Bowl, that is the expectation. I don't think so, but he will be a good quarterback for them."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 18 16 18 20
2018 tier average: 2.52
Polling was generally done in alphabetical order of team or player names, so voters were not asked about the Redskins' new quarterback (Smith) and their old one (Cousins) in succession. Even so, they finished with the same number of votes in each tier: 24 in the second and 26 in the third. On follow-up, voters typically said they would prefer Smith if given a choice, partly because they perceived him to be a better leader.
"I watched all his tape and would make him the last guy in the second tier," an offensive coach said of Smith. "He gets the most out of what he's got more than anybody else I've seen. He is a great decision-maker."
Smith started five consecutive seasons under Andy Reid and played with a stable of dynamic playmakers featuring Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Smith is joining a Redskins team lacking in that type of firepower. For that reason, it could be tough for him to complete eight touchdown passes of 50-plus yards, as he did with Kansas City last season (the most since John Hadl in 1968).
"Kansas City is going to miss him," an offensive coordinator said. "They are going to be excited about how dynamic [Patrick] Mahomes is, but when it is said and done, I think they would have won more games with Alex than they will with Mahomes next year. They are going to be hoping Mahomes will play more like Alex in the future."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 8 12 9 11
2018 tier average: 2.78
Manning's average vote declined by six-tenths of a tier, the largest decline for any returning starter. There was some optimism that new coach Pat Shurmur, healthier skill players and new running back Saquon Barkley could be a good combination for Manning.
"My gut tells me he is going to end his career strong, but he is a 3 right now," a GM said. "I think with Barkley helping him now and the tight end with those receivers, I have a funny feeling he will be like his brother, play another three years, play well and ride out."
The knocks on Manning were that he could no longer move and had become so conscious of being hit that he was looking for a spot to sit down. That is not a good combination for anyone, and particularly not for a player whose accuracy has been inconsistent.
"Shurmur helps him the same way he helped Keenum," a personnel director said. "He finds favorable matchups. With the weapons that they have in New York, I think he is going to be really good for Eli. Eli struggled because he kept getting hit, and he is scared of getting hit. I think maybe Shurmur will be able to get the ball out quicker and get it in the playmakers' hands quicker."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank NA NA NA 14
2018 tier average: 2.78
The way Prescott struggled without Ezekiel Elliott explains why the young quarterback received 13 fewer votes in the second tier this offseason compared to last. He stayed in the third tier overall, slipping three spots in the order.
"What you see is, he needs a run game and the MVP of that team is not Dak Prescott -- it's Ezekiel Elliott," a defensive coordinator said.
We hear all the time about how the NFL is a passing league, almost as though the running game is a waste of time. But the value of the running game cannot be fully measured through rushing statistics.
"When you have that run game, you are going to see simple single-high defenses, so there will not be combination coverages, no stuff where the coverage is going to change on the motion, because people are geared to stop your run game," a defensive coordinator explained. "Unless you have two man-child corners, there are going to be some open throws."
While some voters expressed renewed concerns about Prescott's accuracy, his rushing contributions helped him finish fourth in QBR last season. There was still optimism about what he can become, although Jason Witten's retirement and weakness at wide receiver in Dallas could be problematic.
"He is not afraid, he did it as a rookie, he took his shots last year and still said the right things," a voter said. "I like him."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank NA NA NA 32
2018 tier average: 2.80
The magnitude of the Rams' offensive reversal came as a shock, but an offensive coordinator quoted in the 2017 QB Tiers deserves credit for saying this about Goff last offseason: "It was a little bit unfair throwing him in there like they did, especially when everything was in turmoil with that organization. I think he has a chance. Maybe he can move toward a 3 this year with the idea of becoming a 2 one day."
That is what happened. Goff made the largest year-over-year leap in average tier, diminishing his 0-7 record as a rookie starter in this evaluation. Now the expectations increase again.
"A starting quarterback should be able to take advantage and not hinder the offense when everything is great -- the playcaller, the running back, all that," a voter said. "Give Goff credit for that. There are moments when the QB has to convert -- it's on him. Atlanta put Goff in those situations during the playoff game, and he could not convert. Now, this offseason, you can bet teams have been breaking down how to slow that offense."
Fourteen voters placed Goff in the second tier. Four placed him in the fourth, which seemed surprisingly low following a full season of productive play. But some voters gave much more credit to coach Sean McVay, a healthy Todd Gurley and an improved offensive line. Goff's rookie season wasn't totally irrelevant to them.
"I'm going to step out here a little bit and say he's a 2," a former GM said, "because of the upside, because of the arm talent, because of how he bounced back from adversity. They gave him some weapons, but the majority of quarterbacks need them. He went through some stuff, he responded in the right way and I respect that in a quarterback."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank NA 26 17 18
2018 tier average: 2.86
It's a problem when a quarterback known for making poor decisions on the field is also known for making poor decisions off the field. That is Jameis Winston, although there was good with the bad on the field last season.
Winston set career bests in 2017 for completion rate (63.8), yards per attempt (7.93), interception rate (2.5) and passer rating (92.2). He also missed three games to injury, added less value as a rusher and saw his QBR fall below 50, a career low. He's now facing a three-game suspension after the NFL substantiated allegations that Winston groped a female Uber driver.
"He's a 3 and part of his deal is he is hot and cold," a defensive coordinator said. "You can always count on him to turn the ball over for you. We counted on it and he was just super careless with the ball."
A former GM noted that Winston was "on fire" against Atlanta last season, which made this evaluator think Winston could succeed with the right team and coach. A current GM noted that Winston beat the Saints late in the season, when the quarterback was supposedly healthy.
"I knew he would struggle coming out," an exec said. "It's his makeup, and then he has lazy feet and a careless mentality. He is still young, but I don't like his game. He has a long, drawn-out delivery and he doesn't throw guys open. That works at Florida State when your receivers are better than the DBs you are playing against, but if you are a second late in the NFL, you are screwed."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank NA 25 19 16
2018 tier average: 2.94
Marcus Mariota suffered the fourth-largest decline from last offseason behind Manning, Carr and Joe Flacco. That was after he became the fourth player since 2015 to finish with more interceptions than touchdown passes on at least 400 attempts, joining DeShone Kizer, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Brock Osweiler.
"His intangibles push him up, but man, he throws lollipops up there," an exec said. "He was not real accurate. He doesn't scare you when you play them. They are going to run a bunch of RPOs this year and that will be interesting."
Mariota was coming off a serious injury last season, one that could have lingered. One coach said the Titans had to limit their game plans in an effort to protect Mariota physically. Will that change?
"He is my 3 ascending guy," a defensive coordinator said. "He is more accurate than you give him credit for. They knew he could run, so they put in all that other bulls--- for him instead of saying, 'Listen, let's just be a quarterback.' You don't need to build the Kordell Stewart offense for him. I think he's pretty good."
A veteran offensive coach raised a long-range concern.
"I think he is a 3 that is going to stay a 3," this coach said. "He has too many issues keeping his eyes up the field. He has a little of that Jake the Snake [Plummer]. The eyes go down, he takes off running and you can't survive in this league playing that way."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 19 18 15 19
2018 tier average: 2.96
Andy Dalton ranks 21st in annual salary average and 22nd in this survey. He was very good (70.0 QBR) when the Bengals had a stacked roster in 2015. He has been average to pretty good the rest of the time, just like the Bengals.
"He is one of those guys who was a Pro Bowler at one point, but they never take the next step," a former GM said. "He's smart, they respect him, he's won games for them, but I can't see him going to the next step. I compare Andy to Alex Smith: good enough to win with, but can they get you over the hump?"
Dalton has three years remaining on a contract that is increasingly friendly from a team standpoint as the quarterback market continues to inflate. Goff, Wentz, Mariota and Winston could all pass Dalton in the salary hierarchy over the next couple years. Can the Bengals rebuild their roster sufficiently to take advantage of the relative discount?
"You had better be pretty damn good everywhere else if you want to go win and have him as your quarterback," an offensive coordinator said.
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 12 10 12 15
2018 tier average: 3.06
Two voters actually put the former Super Bowl MVP in the fifth tier, no longer a legitimate starter. That seemed particularly harsh, but there's no question Flacco has been heading in the wrong direction.
"I'm never scared of Joe," a defensive coordinator said. "I'm trying to stop the run game with Baltimore because that is the only way Joe is effective."
A GM put Flacco in Tier 4 with an asterisk.
"I think he can be a 3 if they play the right style of offense," this GM said. "He's fine if they run the ball, play-action pass and play good defense, but they can't help themselves."
Multiple voters acknowledged that personnel attrition had made Flacco's job tougher in recent years. This survey ranks him as the third-best starter in the AFC North, with Browns newcomer Tyrod Taylor gaining on him.
"A little bit is the personnel around him, a little bit is what they ask him to do," a quarterbacks coach said of Flacco, "but I do believe he is a one-dimensional player [deep ball] and everything just happened right for him, the year he went to the Super Bowl."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank NA NA NA NA
2018 tier average: 3.06
One take on Keenum: He's a 4 who played like a 2, which makes him a 3 until further notice.
"He is one of those guys who will have a couple good years and then he will go to be a good backup and at the end of the day he is going to play 12-13 years in the league and he'll be fine -- like Josh McCown," a defensive coordinator said.
The Broncos aren't asking Keenum to be a star. They want him to avoid the negative plays that doomed them last season, and to play well enough to win with a good defense on his side. While a head coach said he's always liked Keenum and thought the QB showed himself to be a low 2, more voters placed Keenum in the fourth tier than in the second.
"He's a 3 on his best day," an offensive coach said. "They had defense and really good receiving talent for him in Minnesota, and they had enough rushing attempts where it was not all on him and they mixed the play-action so he could survive. What is the difference between Case Keenum and Nick Foles?"
Keenum avoids the rush better, for one.
"Yeah, maybe," this coach replied, "but they are high-end backups who got opportunities with teams that had both sides of the ball ready to go. I just do not think Keenum all of a sudden got good."
The next question is whether Denver is set up as well as Minnesota in terms of supporting Keenum. This coach thought the Broncos' receivers were less hungry and on the downside. But what if having a competent quarterback energizes them?
"Keenum has confidence and he's calm in the pocket," a former GM said. "He doesn't get frantic and make stupid decisions. He has just enough arm strength to make the throws. He won, and he went from nothing to something."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank NA NA 26 25
2018 tier average: 3.20
Taylor moved more solidly into the third tier this offseason, pulling seven additional Tier 3 votes and seven fewer Tier 4 votes compared to last year.
"You saw what happened when they tried to play the other kid," an offensive coordinator said, referring to Nathan Peterman throwing five first-half interceptions after replacing Taylor in Buffalo's lineup.
Taylor avoids interceptions and can threaten defenses with his feet -- not just as a runner, but as a buyer of time. Taylor led the NFL over the past three seasons in percentage of third-and-long passes (7-10 yards needed) producing first downs. He averaged 3.09 seconds before the pass on those throws, second only to Rodgers' 3.14 among players with at least 100 attempts in those situations.
"The receivers he had in Buffalo were terrible," a coach said. "They got rid of two [Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods] who flourished other places, and they replaced them with the big guy from Carolina [Kelvin Benjamin] who runs 4.85 [actually 4.61 at the combine] and god knows who else. Then they run Tyrod out of town."
An offensive coordinator said he thought Taylor was so focused on avoiding interceptions that it limited the plays he made, noting that there were "NFL throws that needed to be made" when receivers were open, but Taylor did not make them. A defensive coordinator said he thought facing Taylor was a "nightmare" because of the running and scrambling ability.
"His receivers in Buffalo were not good, so he and Shady [LeSean McCoy] had to do it all," an offensive coach said. "Cleveland does not have great receivers, but if Josh Gordon comes around, look out. Tyrod could make another jump."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank NA 27 22 29
2018 tier average: 3.30
Bortles went from getting 40 votes in the bottom two tiers last year to getting only 14 in those tiers this time around. He jumped into Tier 3 as a result. Was it him? The team around him? A combination?
"That is a perfect example of defense and a run game, and what you can get away with at quarterback," a veteran coach said. "Someone who completely and utterly commits to that mentality and the whole building is behind it -- they drafted it, they sell it and everything is all about that."
Bortles became the first starting quarterback in NFL history to win a playoff game while failing to pass for even 100 yards -- he had 87 in the wild-card round against Buffalo, while rushing for 88. Bortles rebounded the next week to play well against the Steelers, especially on third down. Then he played well enough to nearly upset New England in the AFC title game. This looked like progress.
"We watched a lot of his previous tape while scouting Allen Robinson in free agency and I was just shocked at how many bad balls were thrown by him -- shocked," an evaluator countered. "I don't think one season makes a guy."
Others thought that was giving Bortles a bad rap.
"The perception is that he is terrible, but the reality is, he's a 3, and that's not terrible," an offensive coordinator said.
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 23 17 24 22
2018 tier average: 3.36
Ryan Tannehill's QBR has been below 50 every season but 2014. (By comparison, Bortles has been above 50 twice over that span, despite having one fewer season.)
Is this the year Tannehill takes off?
"He is one of those guys like Dalton, where you wait for them to take the next step, but they kind of just level off," a former GM said. "He's been hurt, too."
Missing the 2017 season with a torn ACL left voters with nothing new to go on.
"He has a good arm and is a good athlete, but similar to that [Sam] Bradford-type deal, he really hasn't done much except tease us and flash a little bit," a personnel director said. "He needs to be managed, like a lot of them do."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 21 23 28 23
2018 tier average: 3.38
Bradford got more Tier 3 votes (29) than Tier 4 votes (20) and there was even a Tier 2 in there, but the obvious durability concerns were an overriding factor.
"If it's 7-on-7, he is a 1 every day of the week, but it is not 7-on-7, so he is a 3," one voter said.
Bradford's performance for Minnesota against New Orleans in the 2017 opener would hold up well against any game any quarterback might play, multiple voters said. The fact that Bradford could not stay in the lineup the next week despite suffering no new injuries was troubling.
"The teams that have him don't seem to want to stay with him," a former GM noted.
The Rams, Eagles and Vikings all moved on from Bradford since March 2015. He has a 16-15 starting record with 42 touchdowns, 19 interceptions, a 94.2 passer rating and 47.1 QBR since then. One coordinator noted that Bradford played in 15 games two seasons ago, and didn't see why that could not happen again.
Mitchell Trubisky fits into the not-enough-information category, especially after playing for a defense-minded head coach (John Fox) without much weaponry.
"He makes me nervous in that most of his plays come off some kind of movement or broke-down play and I think those plays dry up real fast," an offensive coordinator said. "I just don't think there is enough information and I certainly can't evaluate him off what they were doing last year. I will be anxious to see because they are going to run the Kansas City offense. It is a quarterback-driven offense, and I don't know that he is going to be able to carry it."
There was some thought among voters that Trubisky could enjoy a Goff-like revival after undergoing a coaching change and weaponry overhaul, although no one expected Chicago to start scoring the way the Rams did a year ago. One GM questioned Trubisky's accuracy. Another noted that when Trubisky was in college, he couldn't make an average team much better than average.
"I like Trubisky," a defensive coordinator said. "I think that kid has a shot to be decent. He is athletic, he's got a big arm, he has pretty good accuracy. When we played him, they had zero receivers. He was playing with a junior-high cast."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank 24 29 NA 34
2018 tier average: 3.78
McCown will finish the 2018 season having earned $32 million after age 35. He also will surpass David Carr as the highest-earning quarterback from the 2002 draft. Not bad for a player who has been considered ideally suited as a backup over the years.
"He does play at a high level for stretches," an offensive coordinator said. "The more you have to play him, the more at risk you are of it going the other way, especially when he tries to run and gets hurt."
McCown's QBR with the Jets last season (51.9) was higher than the QBRs for Winston, Newton, Carr, Manning, Flacco and Dalton. McCown went 5-8 as a starter for a team Vegas had assigned a five-victory over-under heading into the season.
Mentoring first-round pick Sam Darnold will be part of McCown's job now. One voter said he thought McCown could be a QB coach in a year if he wanted to. Another voter said McCown had the makings of being a future head coach.
"McCown is probably making 80 percent of his money for what he does Monday through Saturday," an evaluator said. "God bless America."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank NA NA NA NA
2018 tier average: 3.80
Mahomes ranks this low only because he has hardly played, leading most voters to place him in the fourth tier until more information becomes available.
"He is a 4 with the arrow pointing way up," a GM said. "He can be a 2. I think it will take Andy Reid a year. Mahomes will be good, but he will turn the ball over and I think that is what you will have to get under control. But I do think he has major upside."
Mahomes' lone start came in a meaningless Week 17 game last season when the Chiefs were resting starters for the playoffs.
"Everybody is making him out to be the next Roger Staubach," another GM said. "Let's wait and see. The guy has played one game and it was a meaningless game. Quarterback is one position where it is a lot easier to get worse than it is to get better."
A quarterbacks coach placed Mahomes in the Stafford category for arm talent.
"This guy, he doesn't have to have a clean pocket, he doesn't have to be able to follow through," this coach said. "The ball explodes off his wrist. He and Stafford have the greatest wrists of any quarterbacks in the NFL, in my opinion."
2014 2015 2016 2017
Previous rank NA NA NA NA
2018 tier average: 4.10
AJ McCarron has seven touchdowns, three interceptions, an 87.6 passer rating and a 48.0 QBR while going 2-2 as a starter, including playoffs.
The Bills liked McCarron, but still drafted Josh Allen seventh overall in April.
"He is a confident, cocky kid," a coach with ties to the Bengals said. "He believes he can be an NFL quarterback. That can be good and bad. The year Andy [Dalton] broke his thumb, he goes in and throws a pick-six on his first pass."
A few voters held out hope for McCarron. Most seemed lukewarm.
"He does not deserve a 3, but I like him," a GM said. "I would be feeling like, 'We might be on to something.' He basically won a playoff game if that guy did not fumble. He can anticipate throws on the boundary that legit quarterbacks anticipate. Right now, if they said I could have Tannehill or McCarron, I would take McCarron."
BA mock draft: New top 10, Zion rising up the board
After a busy summer on the scouting trail, it's time to refresh our 2019 mock draft.
I attended the FIBA U17 World Championship and FIBA Europe U18 Championships, as well as the Nike Basketball Academy, to watch as many NBA prospects as possible. Mike Schmitz was at the FIBA U20 European Championship and U16 European Championship, as well as the Steph Curry Camp, the CP3 Camp and Basketball Without Borders Europe events.
Between the two of us, we covered quite a bit of ground and saw thousands of players, some of whom will be picked in 2019, 2020 and beyond.
Here's what has changed and what we've learned since our most recent update in June:
Kevin Pelton's win-loss projections (based on ESPN's real plus-minus) were used for the draft order.
2019 NBA mock draft
Pick Player Team POS Class HT Age
1. PHI (via SAC) R.J. Barrett Duke SG/SF Fr. 6-7 18.2
2. ATL Nassir Little North Carolina SF Fr. 6-6 18.5
3. PHX Zion Williamson Duke PF Fr. 6-6 18.1
4. CHI Sekou Doumbouya Limoges SF/PF Intl. 6-9 17.6
5. NYK Cameron Reddish Duke SF Fr. 6-9 18.9
6. CLE Romeo Langford Indiana SG/SF Fr. 6-7 18.8
7. ATL (via DAL) Quentin Grimes Kansas SG Fr. 6-6 18.3
8. MEM Keldon Johnson Kentucky SG/SF Fr. 6-7 18.8
9. ORL Darius Garland Vanderbilt PG Fr. 6-3 18.5
10. LAC Bol Bol Oregon C Fr. 7-2 18.7
11. BKN Daniel Gafford Arkansas C So. 6-10 19.9
12. CHA De'Andre Hunter Virginia PF So. 6-8 20.7
13. SAS Jontay Porter Missouri C So. 6-11 18.7
14. DET Rui Hachimura Gonzaga PF Jr. 6-9 20.5
15. LAL Luka Samanic Olimpja Ljubljana PF Intl. 6-11 18.6
16. POR Jalen Smith Maryland PF Fr. 6-10 18.4
17. WAS Herb Jones Alabama SF So. 6-8 19.8
18. NOP Charles Bassey Western Kentucky C Fr 6-11 17.8
19. MIA Ja Morant Murray St PG So. 6-3 19.0
20. MIL Eric Paschall Villanova PF Sr. 6-8 21.8
21. IND P.J. Washington Kentucky PF So. 6-8 20.0
22. OKC Jarrett Culver Texas Tech SG So. 6-5 19.5
23. BOS (via PHI) Nickeil Alexander-Walker Virginia Tech PG/SG So. 6-6 19.9
24. MIN Jalen McDaniels San Diego St PF So. 6-9 20.5
25. BKN (via DEN) Jaylen Hoard Wake Forest SF/PF Fr. 6-9 19.4
26. HOU Darius Bazley N/A PF Fr. 6-10 18.2
27. BOS Shamorie Ponds St. John's PG Jr. 6-1 20.1
28. UTA Kris Wilkes UCLA SF/PF So. 6-8 19.9
29. SAS (via TOR) Tyus Battle Syracuse SF Jr. 6-6 20.9
30. GSW Ty Jerome Virginia SG Jr. 6-5 21.1
31. PHI (via SAC) Lindell Wigginton Iowa St PG So. 6-2 20.4
32. ATL Charles Matthews Michigan SF Jr. 6-6 21.7
33. PHX Jarrey Foster SMU SG Sr. 6-6 21.7
34. PHI (via CHI) Aric Holman Mississippi St. PF Sr. 6-10 21.1
35. BKN (via NYK) Oshae Brissett Syracuse PF So. 6-8 20.1
36. ORL (via CLE) Isaiah Roby Nebraska SF/PF Jr. 6-8 20.5
37. DAL Carsen Edwards Purdue PG Jr. 6-1 20.4
38. PHI (via SAC) Matisse Thybulle Washington SF Sr. 6-6 21.4
39. SAC (via ORL) Marko Simonovic Olimpja Ljubljana PF/C Intl. 6-11 18.8
40. LAC Admiral Schofield Tennessee SF/PF Sr. 6-5 21.4
41. ORL (via BKN) Kerwin Roach Texas PG/SG Sr. 6-3 21.8
42. ATL (via CHA) John Petty Alabama SG So. 6-6 19.7
43. SAS Sagaba Konate West Virginia C Jr. 6-8 20.9
44. DET Ky Bowman Boston College PG/SG Jr. 6-1 21.2
45. SAC (via LAL) Brian Bowen Sydney Kings SF Intl. 6-7 19.9
46. LAC (via POR) Xavier Sneed Kansas St SG Jr. 6-5 20.6
47. DEN (via WAS) James Palmer Nebraska SF Sr. 6-6 22.0
48. NOP Markis McDuffie Wichita St SF Sr. 6-8 20.9
49. MIN (via MIA) Adam Mokoka Mega Bemax SG Intl. 6-5 20.1
50. SAC (via MIL) Goga Bitadze Mega Bemax C Intl. 6-11 19.1
51. IND Killian Tillie Gonzaga PF/C Jr. 6-10 20.3
52. CHA (via OKC) Jalen Hudson Florida SG Sr. 6-5 22.2
53. PHI Udoka Azubuike Kansas C Jr. 7-0 18.9
54. ATL (via MIN) Cameron Johnson North Carolina SF Sr. 6-7 22.4
55. CHA (via DEN) Terence Davis Mississippi SG Sr. 6-4 21.2
56. NYK (via HOU) D'Marcus Simonds Georgia St PG/SG Jr. 6-3 20.8
57. MEM (via BOS) Bruno Fernando Maryland C So. 6-10 20.0
58. UTA Tadas Sedekerskis Baskonia SF/PF Intl. 6-10 20.6
59. TOR Gabriel Galvanini Bauru SF/PF Intl. 6-8 19.9
60. GSW Shakur Juiston UNLV PF SR. 6-7 21.4
Biggest risers, fallers and developments
• R.J. Barrett played in two games with the Canadian senior national team as part of their FIBA World Cup qualifiers, scoring 27 points on 18 shots in 45 minutes. He started alongside four NBA players -- Cory Joseph, Dillon Brooks, Kelly Olynyk and Dwight Powell -- and did not look out of place one bit.
While the competition against the Virgin Islands and Dominican Republic left something to be desired, it is still extremely rare to see a player just weeks removed from his 18th birthday step onto the floor with professionals in their 20s and 30s at the FIBA level and more than hold his own.
Barrett's ability to play a more confined role alongside older and more established NBA players -- passing ahead unselfishly, cutting intelligently off the ball and playing strong defense -- was even more evident in this setting than it was at the high school level at times. He has such an alpha dog mentality and has basically never not been the best player on the court in any setting we've seen, making for an interesting contrast at the senior level. Still, his scoring instincts, aggressiveness in the open court and willingness to embrace contact driving down the lane consistently shined through.
Barrett's outside shot remains a point of interest, as he's a career 31 percent 3-point shooter and went 0-6 from beyond the arc in two games. You could clearly tell that he has put significant time into this part of his game, and even though he shot just 6-of-21 from 3 in Duke's three exhibition games in Canada, his stroke is looking much more compact these days, and his willingness to hoist up outside shots surely seems to be correlated with his improved ability to knock them down.
Barrett hasn't done anything to detract from the notion that he is the No. 1 prospect in the 2019 draft class since being anointed as such in the fall of 2017. There is still a lot of time for contenders to emerge, and that will start early. Barrett and Duke's matchup with Kentucky on Nov. 6 in Indianapolis at the State Farm Champions Classic has to be considered one of the most intriguing preseason matchups we've had in some time.
• Barrett's teammate, Zion Williamson, drew the bulk of the headlines from Duke's exhibition tour, despite the fact that Barrett led the team in scoring at 31 points per game. That is to be expected considering the viral nature of Williamson's game, which lends itself to incredible highlights due to his freakish combination of power and explosiveness, especially considering that he stands 6-foot-7 and is listed at 285 pounds.
But Williamson is more than a dunker, as he demonstrated on a number of occasions in Canada, with some extremely impressive drives, passes and defensive possessions demonstrating body control, feel and skill that are just as rare from a player with his dimensions as the ridiculous dunks. He moves up from No. 7 to No. 3 in this mock.
We will be talking a lot more about Williamson as the season moves on, but it's safe to say that he will be one of the most hotly debated prospects in this class. Plenty of NBA executives have told us that they are far from sold on him, and it will take a lot more than pulverizing overmatched Canadian university competition to convince them, though his 3-9 shooting from deep did raise some eyebrows, given that he has been mostly considered a non-shooter to this point.
Thankfully, Duke has an intriguing nonconference schedule that will put Williamson front and center against some strong competition, starting with Kentucky and continuing with the Maui Invitational on Nov. 19.
• Kentucky also went abroad for a series of games in the Bahamas in which they matched up with Serbian pro team Mega Bemax, which has had nine players drafted in the past four years. The Adriatic League team looked overmatched physically from the opening tip and were essentially steamrollered by John Calipari's squad, who not only played their trademark outstanding defense but also appear to have some outside shooting on their roster, which is a welcome change from years past.
Freshman wing Keldon Johnson set the tone early for Kentucky with his hustle and tenacity defensively, fighting over screens, getting in a deep stance and putting tremendous pride in shutting down his matchup. Offensively, he made a couple of 3-pointers, caught a couple of lobs in the open court and was a handful getting downhill off dribble handoffs. Johnson looked every bit the lottery pick he was billed as coming in and appears to be on the verge of a breakout season.
While there was a lot of encouraging things to take away from the performances of all of Kentucky's prospects in the Bahamas -- particularly Nick Richards, Tyler Herro, Quade Green and Ashton Hagans -- the one player on the roster who looks likely to emerge is sophomore P.J. Washington, who withdrew from last year's draft. Washington looks to be in much better shape and was competing with higher intensity than we saw from him for most of last season. He had some very impressive moments rotating for blocks inside and outside the arc with excellent timing. If he can indeed continue to protect the rim, switch out onto guards on pick-and-rolls and hold his own on the defensive glass, he'll make a strong case for himself as a versatile, small-ball big man. The fact that he was able to step out and make a corner 3-pointer was very encouraging, but the huge quantity of free throws he bricked in this contest showed that his stroke likely needs a lot of work.
• Eric Paschall's explosion at the Nike Basketball Academy earlier this month earned him a boost to the No. 20 spot in this mock draft, and it showed that defending champions Villanova will be a team to watch, despite losing four players to the draft. We chronicled his performance in detail here.
• Ja Morant broke out in a major way at Chris Paul's Elite Guard Camp in Winston-Salem and earned himself a spot at No. 19 in this mock. Murray State will be followed closely by NBA scouts this winter, particularly in a Nov. 26 matchup at Alabama, which will likely be crowded with executives. Mike Schmitz chronicled Morant's performance here.
• Ty Jerome also helped himself at the CP3 camp, carving out the last spot in the first round of this mock draft in turn. Virginia was already home to one projected first-rounder in De'Andre Hunter, making Virginia an intriguing team for NBA scouts to follow in the ACC.
Other projected first-rounders we covered this summer:
- Luka Samanic's up-and-down showing at the U18 European Championship
- Projected first-rounders Bol Bol, Daniel Gafford, De'Andre Hunter, Rui Hachimura, Jaylen Hoard, Darius Bazley and others at the Nike Basketball Academy
Kiper & McShay's CFB surprises, NFL draft prospects to watch, more
ESPN NFL draft experts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay run through college football's biggest surprises through two weeks, and what to watch moving forward.
They also pick out 2019 prospects rising up draft boards, identify two under-the-radar prospects to keep an eye on and give their current picks for the College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy CFB MVP.
Early-season surprises to watch
1. Who needs Baker Mayfield?
Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray has been tremendous in two blowout wins. There has been no drop-off for Lincoln Riley and the Sooners, and you could make the case that Murray's running ability takes the offense to a new level. Murray, who was taken in the first round of the MLB draft and is likely a one-and-done starter, has an underrated arm for his small frame. He ranks No. 2 in FBS in Total QBR (95.6). With running back Rodney Anderson out for the season, Murray is going to have to take on a bigger load running the ball if the Sooners want to get to the College Football Playoff. -- Kiper
2. Georgia's offense looks really good.
I'm not saying this offense wasn't supposed to be good, but the Dawgs lost Sony Michel, Nick Chubb and standout tackle Isaiah Wynn to the draft, and a road game at South Carolina early on could've caused some hiccups. Instead they were efficient and Jake Fromm looked great as they rolled up 30 first downs in what became a blowout win. Fromm was 15-for-18 passing, and D'Andre Swift, Elijah Holyfield and Brian Herrien impressed on the ground. -- McShay
3. What is going on with Khalil Tate?
The Arizona quarterback was on my Heisman watch list heading into the season. He averaged 9.2 yards per carry and had almost 1,500 rushing yards last season. Now? Fifteen carries for 22 yards through two games. He has completed only 51.9 percent of his passes. And the Wildcats are 0-2. New coach Kevin Sumlin has changed the offense, and Tate can't do anything. This was one of college football's most dynamic players a year ago -- let him run wild. It's going to be tough for Sumlin to get Arizona to a bowl game. -- Kiper
4. Florida's loss and offensive struggles.
Don't tell me you saw a home loss to Kentucky coming. The 31-game win streak over the Cats was the fourth-longest in NCAA history in an uninterrupted series. And even if streaks are made to be broken, the offense will have some Gators fans worried. Feleipe Franks was just 17-for-38 against Kentucky, and Dan Mullen's team has Mississippi State, LSU and Georgia on the calendar in coming weeks. -- McShay
5. How about Herm Edwards and Arizona State's 2-0 start?
My pal Dari Nowkhah picked Michigan State to make the College Football Playoff. Not quite, Dari. The Sun Devils now have a blowout victory over UTSA and an upset win against the Spartans. Now, Herm's guys have a challenging Pac-12 schedule, with games at Washington, USC and Oregon. The Sun Devils could still be 6-6. But Herm clearly has them going in the right direction, and I'm excited to see how Arizona State improves in the next few years. -- Kiper
6. QB Kellen Mond is officially on the radar.
The Texas A&M true sophomore put up 430 yards passing, three TDs and no picks against Clemson's loaded defense on Saturday night, and he often had to make plays in the face of pressure -- check out his touchdown throw at the 1:50 mark here. He's now No. 11 overall in Total QBR through two weeks, and, again, this is a true sophomore. What's scary: The Aggies still have to travel to Bama, Auburn and Mississippi State this year, and also close the regular season with LSU. -- McShay
Almost famous under-the-radar prospects
Keep an eye on these potential Day 2 or Day 3 picks:
Khalil Hodge, LB, Buffalo
You know all about former Buffalo defender Khalil Mack, who just signed the richest deal for a defensive player in NFL history, but the Bulls have a prospect to watch for the 2019 class. Hodge is a versatile and complete linebacker whose 154 tackles last season ranked No. 2 in FBS. With the ability to cover backs and tight ends, he can be a three-down linebacker in the NFL, likely as an inside linebacker. He shows good pursuit to the football and he can take on blocks. Hodge had 10 tackles and two pass breakups in Buffalo's win over Temple on Saturday. I have him graded as a third- or fourth-round pick right now. -- Kiper
Kelvin McKnight, WR, Samford
McKnight had a monster game against the Seminoles, with 14 catches for 215 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He's not a big guy at 5-foot-8 and 186 pounds, but he has some twitch to him and was able to get behind Florida State coverage for a 54-yard touchdown on Samford's first offensive play of the game. He did a nice job finding pockets in the coverage and was great on scramble plays, finding space when his QB was on the run. -- McShay
Prospects on the rise
These are the 2019 NFL draft prospects moving up boards:
Jarrett Stidham, QB, Auburn
This is obviously more about Week 1, when Stidham went 26-for-36 for 273 yards and a TD against a very good Washington secondary. (Stidham had just 11 throws in a Week 2 blowout of Alabama State). Against the Huskies he was poised and limited mistakes -- he had two poor decisions the entire game and neither was debilitating. The 6-3, 215-pound signal-caller is a natural passer and you're seeing a more comfortable version in 2018, his second season under Gus Malzahn. The more I'm around Stidham, the more I like his calm demeanor and maturity. Scouts were impressed with his work against Washington. -- McShay
Kaden Smith, TE, Stanford
The third-year sophomore might be the best tight end prospect in the country. At 6-5, 252 pounds, he's a complete player. Smith made several nice catches in the Cardinal's win over USC -- four total for 77 yards -- consistently finding open zones and making plays down the field. I love his ability to sustain blocks in the run game, too -- that's what NFL teams are looking for in pro-ready tight ends. He was extremely impressive, and he's one to watch for Round 1 in April -- if he decides to enter the draft. -- Kiper
College Football's Most Valuable Players
These aren't the top candidates for the Heisman Trophy -- these are the MVPs of CFB.
Kiper's top three:
1. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama: The sophomore has been lights out in two games, and the Bama offense looks unstoppable. Tagovailoa is a precise passer with an effortless motion -- he's a big-time prospect for the 2020 class.
2. Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State: I have also been impressed by Haskins, who has nine touchdown passes and one pick so far. The ball just jumps out of his hand. He could take the Ohio State offense to a new level -- the Buckeyes have already crushed two Power 5 teams.
3. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin: Taylor is averaging 7.8 yards on his 51 carries through two games, and he already has five touchdowns. Now, can we get some more targets in the passing game?
McShay's top three:
If the College Football Playoff started today ...
Kiper's top four teams:
1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Clemson
4. Ohio State
McShay's top four teams:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Oklahoma
4. Georgia