Every way OKC can keep or lose All-Star free agent Paul George
Despite having the advantage of recruiting Paul George in-house for a full year, the Oklahoma City Thunder's front office will face obstacles in its free-agent sales pitch to the All-Star forward after a Round 1 exit.
Here are all the options for George and OKC heading into a huge moment for the franchise.
More summer focus: Click here for every team so far
The five-year max
Sometimes continuity and trust outweigh the allure of a new environment. This OKC roster returns 10 players, and the Thunder front office has shown it can acquire talent despite an expensive cap sheet that faces roster restrictions.
Returning on a five-year, $176 million contract would provide George financial security and keep him in a Thunder uniform for the prime of his career. In addition, George, Russell Westbrook and Steven Adams would be under contract through at least the 2020-21 season.
The downside: a costly roster that might not be better than it was this season. The Thunder would be faced with a $147 million payroll, nearly $24 million over the luxury tax with five roster spots open.
The tax bill before the rest of the roster is addressed would stand at $84 million. Adding four players to minimum contracts would make the tax bill increase to $115 million, and that $268 million in tax and salary would be the largest one-year total in NBA history (unless, of course, LeBron James returns to Cleveland).
Jerami Grant is likely to be a roster casualty if George returns to OKC. Even with a shrinking free-agent market, teams have circled the forward as a candidate to target with their $8.6 million midlevel exception.
Though Oklahoma City has Bird rights and can exceed the salary cap to sign Grant, an $8.6 million price tag would cost an additional $45 million in luxury taxes. Yes, that's $53 million in combined salary and tax for a forward to come off the bench.
Of course, a player such as Kyle Singler or Alex Abrines could be moved if Grant is a priority (which he should be). Trading Abrines diminishes depth, and at the minimum a second-round pick would have to be attached for a team to take back the $4.9 million Singler contract. A last resort could be either buying out or stretching the $27 million owed to Carmelo Anthony.
Without a first-round pick this year, Oklahoma City would be relying on the minimum market to address its backup point guard, power forward and center.
The same pattern would continue in 2019-20, even when Anthony's $27.9 million contract comes off the books.
The short-term contract
Would George risk $125 million in guaranteed money to enter free agency in 2020?
By signing a three-year, $97 million contract with a player option in the third year, George could return to Oklahoma City for two years and become a free agent in 2020. This scenario would give George an out after two years if the roster stagnates. It also allows him to receive a more lucrative contract in the future.
Because George would reach 10 years of service in 2020, he would then be eligible to sign a four-year, $169 million max contract with a team with cap space.
This would be a high-risk approach because of a potential injury and the uncertainty that a max offer will be on the table when he turns 30 in 2020.
Even with the two-year salary, the Thunder would still face the same financial and roster restrictions as they would if George signed a five-year contract.
The Chris Paul scenario
Like Paul last year, George could opt into his $20.7 million contract with the intent of being traded to a team that could not afford to sign him as a free agent.
For example, if the Cavs received a commitment from James before July 1, would they trade the No. 8 pick in the draft and George Hill for George? And would the Thunder take the luxury hit for one year of Hill ($19 million) in exchange for a first-round pick, with Paul George already out the door?
Because of the June 29 deadline to opt out of (or into) his contract, George would be complicating a potential path to the Lakers, who have the cap space to sign him outright without giving up anything in a trade. So this is an unlikely scenario, since George is expected to meet with L.A. in the first few days of free agency.
Opting in for a trade not only would cost George $10 million next year but also leave him unprotected in case of an injury. George would only be eligible for a four-year, $90 million extension with his new team six months after being acquired.
Sign and trade
The 2011 collective bargaining agreement all but eliminated a team from acquiring a player in a sign and trade.
A team such as the Golden State Warriors could only acquire George if its total salary post-transaction does not exceed the $129 million hard cap. The Warriors enter the offseason with $128 million in guaranteed contracts and nine players under contract.
Matching salaries in a trade is also complex. On a new max deal, George would count $30 million for an acquiring team but only $19.5 (his 2017-18 salary) for the Thunder, since his new contract would be a 120 increase from the previous season.
The Lakers would have no interest in a sign and trade since they can sign George outright with cap space without giving up an asset.
The free-agent options
There is no mystery that Oklahoma City's biggest challenge in free agency to retain George is the Lakers.
Los Angeles comes close to checking all the boxes that appeal to a free agent:
- A young core with upside (Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, Kyle Kuzma and possibly Julius Randle)
- Trade assets to add an All-Star
- Cap space now and in the future
- Flexibility to improve
The Thunder's advantages are former MVP in Westbrook, a veteran but expensive team that is built to win now and an extra $46 million that George can earn by staying in OKC.
The contingency plan
The Kevin Durant free-agent decision in 2016 taught the Thunder to prepare for anything.
However, unlike two years ago when Oklahoma City had a safety net with Victor Oladipo and eventual cap space once Durant left, options this summer will be limited if George leaves.
The Thunder roster would now look more like a lottery team ... with $117 million in payroll.
Bringing Grant back would help on the court, but that signing along with filling out the roster would push Oklahoma City into the tax with a projected $130 million in salary and a luxury bill of $18 million.
Is $148 million sustainable for a borderline playoff team? Unlikely.
Summer cap breakdown
2018-19 salary breakdown
Player 2018-19
1. Russell Westbrook $35,350,000
2. Carmelo Anthony (early termination option) $27,928,140
3. Steven Adams $24,157,303
4. Paul George (player option) $20,703,384
5. Andre Roberson $10,000,000
6. Alex Abrines $5,455,236
7. Patrick Patterson $5,451,600
8. Kyle Singler $4,996,000
9. Terrance Ferguson $2,118,840
10. Dakari Johnson $1,378,242
11. Josh Huestis 1 (free-agent hold) $2,243,326
12. Raymond Felton 2 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
13. Corey Brewer 3 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
14. Nick Collison 3 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
15. Jerami Grant 3 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
16. Daniel Hamilton 4 (free-agent hold) $1,337,872
17. PJ Dozier 4 (free-agent hold) $1,337,872
Total $148.4 million
Luxury tax line $123.0 million (projected)
1. Fourth-year restriction
2. Non-Bird rights
3. Bird rights
4. Restricted non-Bird rights
Dates to watch
All eyes will be on the last week of June, when George and Anthony can elect to opt in -- or, in the case of Anthony, terminate his $27.9 million salary for next season.
Anthony would lose roughly $20 million if he terminated his contract, based on his future earnings projecting toward the $8.6 million midlevel exception next year. Keep in mind that the forward has earned $231 million in his career.
George likely will see a $10 million increase in annual salary once he opts out by June 29 and field offers for a new max deal.
Restrictions
The trade restriction for Westbrook will not be lifted until Sept. 29. The one-year, no-trade clause was a result of Westbrook signing a super max extension last fall. Westbrook also has a 15 percent trade bonus that would be voided. The bonus cannot exceed the maximum salary in 2018-19.
Adams has a 15 percent trade bonus as well, with the center receiving $5.8 million spread out over the next three seasons. Adams would have an additional $1.9 million cap hit added to 2018-19, 2019-20 and 2020-21.
Because the fourth-year option for Josh Huestis was declined, Oklahoma City can only sign him to a starting salary of $2.2 million.
Extension eligible candidates
Despite having three players eligible, do not expect any extensions for the Thunder next year.
Anthony (if he opts in), Abrines and Kyle Singler are all technically candidates.
The draft assets
With its first-round pick traded to Minnesota (via Utah) as part of the Enes Kanter deal, Oklahoma City will be relying on the second round to improve the roster.
The Thunder have their own second-rounder, plus Boston's, in a deep draft.
Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have OKC picking in the 2018 draft:
- No. 53 (own): Ray Spalding | PF | Louisville
- No. 57 (from Boston): Karim Jallow | SF | Bayern Munich
The earliest that Oklahoma City can trade a first would be in 2022.
