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Skooby

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Mel Kiper's 2017 'Grade: A' three-round mock draft


It's time for my annual three-round mock draft, which has a simple concept: I'm the general manager for each team at each pick, from No. 1 to No. 107.


I'm not projecting picks based on what I'm hearing around the league. This is me making 107 picks -- three full rounds -- based on what's best for each team at that slot, so that each team gets an "A" grade.

The ground rules:

  1. At each slot, I make a pick in the best interest of only the team with the pick. I won't pass on a player at No. 4 just because I like the team at No. 5 better.
  2. No trades unless they have already happened. I try to address team needs, but as with the actual draft, value can supersede need.
  3. Once again, I'm not projecting. It's more a look at where I see value up and down the board, based on my rankings.
There's a team-by-team look with my full analysis below, as well as a pick-by-pick version, so you can see how the order of the picks progressed and get an idea of who was off the board when each team selected.





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Cleveland Browns

Round 1 (1): Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
Round 1 (12): Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
Round 2 (33): Jourdan Lewis, CB, Michigan
Round 2 (52): Josh Jones, S, NC State
Round 3 (65): Kareem Hunt, RB, Toledo

The Browns really need to hit on these picks in the top 65. They had 15 picks last year but hit on few difference-makers (I gave them a C+ in my regrades). They have needs at almost every position. This slate would give Cleveland my top-ranked pass-rusher (and overall prospect) and top-ranked quarterback with its first two picks. Those are franchise-changing prospects. Trubisky is going to need some time to adjust to the league, but he has a high ceiling. The undersized Lewis will probably be available at the top of the second round, as there will be a run on corners on Day 1. Lewis is my seventh corner off the board here. Jones is tremendously athletic, running a 4.41 40 at the combine at 220 pounds, and could contribute immediately. Hunt is a downhill runner who breaks tackles and has some value as a receiver out of the backfield.

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San Francisco 49ers
Round 1 (2): Solomon Thomas, DL, Stanford
Round 2 (34): Patrick Mahomes II, QB, Texas Tech
Round 3 (66): Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida


I have Jonathan Allen rated higher than Thomas, but Thomas is a better fit in San Francisco. He has double-digit sack potential and is a different player than the D-linemen the 49ers have taken in the first round the past two years (DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead). Could he even play some outside linebacker in the Niners' 3-4? I moved Mahomes ahead of Clemson's Deshaun Watson in my quarterback rankings. He's one of my favorite players to watch in the class, and you can't deny his natural tools. Mahomes would give new coach Kyle Shanahan a developmental prospect with which to work. The 49ers brought in Brian Hoyer in free agency, and he could play while Mahomes gets used to the speed of the NFL. Wilson is a big corner (6-foot-1, 211 pounds) without ideal speed (4.54 40 at the combine), but he could compete for a starting spot in San Francisco. Getting Wilson at the top of Round 3 would be a steal.

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Chicago Bears
Round 1 (3): Jamal Adams, S, LSU
Round 2 (36): DeMarcus Walker, DE, Florida State
Round 3 (67): Damontae Kazee, CB, San Diego State


Chicago added cornerbacks Prince Amukamara and Marcus Cooper in free agency, so I'm going with a safety here. Adams is a do-it-all defender with All-Pro potential. Walker is versatile and a hard-worker who could start at defensive end in the Bears' 3-4. He had 16 sacks for the Seminoles last season. Kazee is a ball hawk who had 15 interceptions the past two seasons. He isn't big (5-foot-10, 184 pounds), and he didn't run fast at the combine (4.54 40), and that could drop him into the fourth round. But if I were the GM of a team that needed a slot corner in the third round, Kazee would be my guy. Neither Amukamara nor Cooper is an inside corner. I think Kazee will have a better career than some of the corners who get picked in the second round. He's underrated.

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Jacksonville Jaguars
Round 1 (4): Jonathan Allen, DL, Alabama
Round 2 (35): Evan Engram, TE, Ole Miss
Round 3 (68): Aviante Collins, OT, TCU


Stick Allen at defensive tackle next to $85 million man Malik Jackson, and let him get after quarterbacks and disrupt running games. Yes, Jacksonville has spent a lot of money on its defensive line the past two seasons, but Allen is worth it. He had 23 sacks the past two seasons. There has been some talk of the Jags taking O.J. Howard at No. 4, but this scenario would give them Engram, my No. 2-ranked tight end, at the top of the second round. He's a pass-catcher, and after trading away Julius Thomas, Jacksonville sorely needs a replacement. Collins is an athletic, developmental guy who could play right tackle or guard. His 4.81 40 at the combine was by far the fastest among offensive linemen, and it forced scouts to head back to the tape.

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Tennessee Titans
Round 1 (5): Reuben Foster, ILB, Alabama
Round 1 (18): Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama
Round 3 (83): Mack Hollins, WR, North Carolina
Round 3 (100): Bucky Hodges, TE, Virginia Tech
Tennessee has two first-round picks after trading down from No. 1 with the Rams last year, but the Titans traded back up with Cleveland and lost their second-round pick in 2018. That means they have a huge gap after picking No. 18. I think the Titans have three clear needs: cornerback, wide receiver and inside linebacker. I don't have a corner or receiver in my top five, but I do have Foster ranked that high. He's that good, an every-down linebacker with elite range. Tennessee just released Jason McCourty, and Humphrey could step in and start immediately. The 6-foot-4 Hollins, a former walk-on, and 6-foot-6 Hodges would give Marcus Mariota two productive targets with upside.

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New York Jets
Round 1 (6): O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama
Round 2 (39): Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson
Round 3 (70): Dan Feeney, OG, Indiana
Round 3 (107): Alex Anzalone, OLB, Florida


The Jets might be hesitant to take a tight end so high, but Howard has all the traits of a future All-Pro. In this scenario, I have the Jets passing on a quarterback at No. 6 -- remember, I don't have Mitchell Trubisky as a top-20 prospect -- and taking Watson with their second pick. I don't expect Watson to make it to Round 2, but he's my third-ranked quarterback. Yes, that's back-to-back second-round picks on quarterbacks for the Jets, who took Christian Hackenberg last year, but I don't see their long-term starter on their roster. Watson has a lot of potential, but he had an inconsistent junior season. Feeney was a four-year starter who also played some tackle for the Hoosiers. Anzalone had injury issues throughout college and played only 31 games, but he has the size and athleticism to play inside or outside linebacker.

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Los Angeles Chargers
Round 1 (7): Mike Williams, WR, Clemson
Round 2 (38): Dion Dawkins, OL, Temple
Round 3 (71): Jaleel Johnson, DT, Iowa
Keenan Allen has played only nine games the past two seasons, and former undrafted free agent Tyrell Williams led the Chargers in receiving last season. Give Philip Rivers another big-time target, and the Chargers could be one of the most-improved teams in the league in 2017. Los Angeles could use another offensive tackle, but there aren't any elite tackles in this class. Dawkins started at left tackle the past three seasons for the Owls, but he's likely to be a guard at the next level. Grabbing a potential immediate starter in the second round is a smart move. At 6-foot-3, 316 pounds, Johnson is a good pass-rusher from the interior; he had 7.5 sacks last season.
 

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Carolina Panthers
Round 1 (8): Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
Round 2 (40): Jordan Willis, DE, Kansas State
Round 2 (64): Taylor Moton, OT, Western Michigan
Round 3 (98): Adam Bisnowaty, OT, Pitt
Since the season ended, few prospects have risen higher than McCaffrey, who will be my No. 1 running back when my top-300 rankings come out next week. He has the athleticism (4.48 40) and versatility to be a difference-maker. The Panthers could use him as a complement to veteran Jonathan Stewart and as a primary option in the receiving and return games. Don't count out McCaffrey's being an every-down back in the league, even at 5-foot-11, 202 pounds. Willis is a pure pass-rusher who impressed at the combine with a 6.85-second 3-cone drill and a 4.53 40 at 6-foot-4, 255 pounds. Carolina gave Matt Kalil $31 million guaranteed to be its left tackle, but the right side is more unclear. In Moton and Bisnowaty, the Panthers are getting two four-year starters: Moton on the right and Bisnowaty on the left.

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Cincinnati Bengals
Round 1 (9): Haason Reddikk, LB, Temple
Round 2 (41): Chris Wormley, DT, Michigan
Round 3 (73): JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, USC


I could see the Bengals going with a pass-rusher or receiver on Day 1, but I'm going with Reddikk, who could play outside or inside in the Bengals' 4-3. A former walk-on, Reddikk had a great Senior Bowl week and tremendous combine, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him go in the top 10. Cincinnati brought in Kevin Minter in free agency, so Reddikk probably would slot outside. Wormley brings some pass-rushing skills from the interior and had six sacks last season. Smith-Schuster didn't have the senior season I thought he might (70 catches, 10 touchdowns), but he qualifies as a steal here in a deep receiving class.

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Buffalo Bills
Round 1 (10): Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan
Round 2 (44): David Njoku, TE, Miami (Fla.)
Round 3 (75): Cooper Kupp, WR, Eastern Washington


Don't be shocked if Peppers goes this high. He's a tremendous athlete (4.46 40, 35½-inch vertical) and the best punt returner in this draft. Even after signing Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, the Bills are far from settled at safety. And they don't have anyone on the roster like Peppers. The freakishly athletic Njoku isn't likely to make it to pick No. 44, but I have only two tight ends going before then. Charles Clay hasn't played up to the five-year deal he signed in 2015, and pass-catcher is a need. The Bills could also go receiver in the second round, but I'm giving them Kupp. He isn't a burner, running a 4.62 40 at the combine, but he's a playmaker who is one of the most NFL-ready wideouts in this draft.

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New Orleans Saints
Round 1 (11): Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State
Round 1 (32): Adoree' Jackson, CB/PR, USC
Round 2 (42): Curtis Samuel, WR, Ohio State
Round 3 (76): Joshua Dobbs, QB, Tennessee
Round 3 (103): Derek Rivers, OLB, Youngstown State


OK, hear me out: The Saints desperately need cornerbacks. It has been quiet on the Malcolm Butler front lately, and so here I have them getting corners with their two first-round picks. I like Delvin Breaux, but he played only 287 snaps last season. I would run the pick to the podium if Lattimore, my top-ranked corner, is here at 11. He's a one-year starter with big-time tools, including a 4.36 40 and 38½-inch vertical at 6 feet, 193 pounds. Jackson has a smaller frame (5-foot-10, 186 pounds) and might end up as a slot corner. But in a pass-happy league, slot corners are on the field most of the game. I wouldn't hesitate to take him at the end of the first round, and he'll also return punts. With the trade of Brandin Cooks, there will be touches available, and Samuel is a hybrid playmaker who had more than 70 receptions and rushes and 15 total touchdowns last season. Dobbs, my fifth-ranked QB, could be gone by the end of the second round. Even after bringing back Chase Daniel, the Saints need to find a Drew Brees successor. Rivers is a ferocious pass-rusher with a great motor and had 41 career sacks.

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Arizona Cardinals
Round 1 (13): Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan
Round 2 (45): Desmond King, CB, Iowa
Round 3 (77): Raekwon McMillan, ILB, Ohio State
Should the Cardinals reach for a quarterback here? I'm not so sure. They have needs elsewhere, namely at inside linebacker (if Reuben Foster drops, he'd be a good fit) and cornerback. Arizona's once-formidable receiving corps doesn't look as good with former first-round pick Michael Floyd gone and Larry Fitzgerald turning 34 before the season begins. Don't knock Davis' competition level -- he has No. 1 wideout potential. King, the 2015 Jim Thorpe Award winner, is undersized at 5-foot-10, 201 pounds and could end up at safety, but he's a playmaker (14 career interceptions). Arizona brought back 35-year-old Karlos Dansby to play next to Deone Bucannon, but McMillan is a tackling machine who might be an immediate upgrade.

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Philadelphia Eagles
Round 1 (14): Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State
Round 2 (43): Marcus Maye, S, Florida
Round 3 (99): Tanoh Kpassagnon, DE, Villanova


The Eagles' front seven is solid, but the back end needs help. At corner, they let Nolan Carroll II walk in free agency after he started 16 games, and they brought in former first-round pick Patrick Robinson on a one-year deal. Philadelphia needs a starter with its first pick, and Conley, a consistent two-year starter for the Buckeyes, could be that guy. Maye, whose 2016 season was cut short because of a broken arm, would help on special teams and potentially replace Rodney McLeod or Malcolm Jenkins, who both had down seasons. Kpassagnon would be an upside pick late on Day 2. At 6-foot-7 and 289 pounds, he is massive and had some of the longest arms (35⅝ inches) and biggest hands (10⅝ inches) measured at the combine.

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Indianapolis Colts
Round 1 (15): Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
Round 2 (46): Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State
Round 3 (80): Jermaine Eluemunor, OG, Texas A&M


Fournette might not drop to 15, but he certainly could. Few teams in the top half of the first round need backs, and others might see a better, different fit with Christian McCaffrey. Yes, the Colts finally had a 1,000-yard rusher last season, but Frank Gore still averaged 3.9 yards per carry, and he turns 34 soon. Why not pair Fournette with Andrew Luck (who was Indy's second-leading rusher, by the way)? Fournette is an elite talent. McDowell is a polarizing prospect with mouth-watering athleticism and size (6-foot-6, 295 pounds) but a questionable motor and work ethic. He's worth betting on in the middle of the second round and could be a big-time steal if he becomes more consistent. The London-born Eluemunor is a project who played guard and tackle for the Aggies. I think he'll stay inside in the NFL.

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Baltimore Ravens
Round 1 (16): Forrest Lamp, OG, Ball State
Round 2 (47): T.J. Watt, OLB, Wisconsin
Round 3 (74): Jake Butt, TE, Michigan
Round 3 (78): Carlos Henderson, WR, Louisiana Tech


Lamp is the best guard in this class and won't last long if he gets past the Ravens at 16. After a run on pass-rushers, Baltimore might not like the outside linebackers available, so it could get Lamp, who'll be a Day 1 starter at left guard or center. Then the Ravens' best-case scenario would be a 3-4 pass-rusher such as Watt falling to them in the second round. At 6-foot-4, 252 pounds, T.J. is a much different player than his brother J.J., but he's a solid player. I'm not as high on him as some -- he started only one season -- but you can't deny his production, including 11.5 sacks and 63 total tackles. Butt might have been a top-40 pick if he hadn't torn his ACL in Michigan's Orange Bowl loss. Dennis Pitta took a pay cut to remain in Baltimore, but the Ravens still need an eventual replacement. Henderson isn't big (5-foot-11, 199 pounds), but he's explosive (4.46 40 and 36-inch vertical). He's also my No. 2-ranked kick returner.
 

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Washington Redskins
Round 1 (17): Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State
Round 2 (49): Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State
Round 3 (81): Montravius Adams, DT, Auburn


Washington signed former Cardinals safety D.J. Swearinger to a low-risk deal this offseason, but it's far from settled at free safety in the long term. Hooker is the best center-field-type safety in this class. He had seven interceptions last season, including three pick-sixes, and made plays all over the field. He could drop a little because he started only one season and has some injury questions, but he has tremendous potential. Cook is another prospect who has dropped a little. He didn't have a great combine, and his shoulders are a concern. There's a chance he drops here because of how deep this running back class is. Robert Kelley and Matt Jones are decent, but neither is a home run threat like Cook, who had 38 rushing touchdowns the past two seasons. Adams, who would probably play nose guard, could be a second-round pick if a team rolls the dice on his talent. He must be more consistent.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Round 1 (19): John Ross, WR, Washington
Round 2 (50): Budda Baker, S, Washington
Round 3 (84): Jordan Leggett, TE, Clemson


The guy I've compared Ross to since last year? DeSean Jackson, whom the Bucs signed this offseason. They have slight frames that don't fit with how traditional receivers look, but man, they are blazing fast: Ross clocked a 4.22 in the 40, and Jackson clocked 4.35. They're electrifying, big-play threats who could blow by defensive backs and take it to the house at any moment, and they're stellar returners. Adding Ross would give Tampa Bay a trio of Ross, Jackson and No. 1 wideout Mike Evans. That's scary for defenses. Baker is one of my favorite players in this draft and would be a top-15 pick if he were bigger. At 5-foot-10, 195 pounds, he's an enforcer who could line up in the slot, play deep safety or help in run support in the box. Cameron Brate had a breakout season in 2016, but I still think the Bucs need a pass-catching tight end. Leggett is solid value here.

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Denver Broncos
Round 1 (20): Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin
Round 2 (51): Adam Shaheen, TE, Ashland
Round 3 (82): Trey Hendrickson, DE, Florida Atlantic
Round 3 (101): Isaiah McKenzie, WR, Georgia


The first three picks here would fill all of the Broncos' biggest needs. Ramczyk is my first tackle off the board. That might be hard to believe, but this isn't the class in which to find a top-tier (and top-five) blindside protector. The Broncos brought in Menelik Watson to play right tackle, but he isn't a lock to be an above-average player, and Donald Stephenson hasn't impressed on the other side. Ramczyk could compete at both tackle spots. The massive Shaheen (6-foot-6, 278 pounds) isn't a sleeper at this point, but he could be a weapon in the NFL if he develops as a blocker and adapts to the speed of the game. Hendrickson is an underrated pass-rusher who could rotate with Von Miller & Co. McKenzie is tiny at 5-foot-7, 173 pounds, but he's a dynamic athlete. He's also my No. 3-ranked punt returner and had five punt return touchdowns in college.

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Detroit Lions
Round 1 (21): Kevin King, CB, Washington
Round 2 (53): Joe Mixon, RB, Oklahoma
Round 3 (85): Tarell Basham, DE, Ohio


King, who spent two seasons at safety, wowed with his athleticism (4.43 40, 39½-inch vertical) and frame (6-foot-3, 200 pounds) at the combine. Stick him on the other side of Darius Slay, and the Lions would have two building blocks for the future. I might be tempted to go running back in Round 1 for the Lions if Christian McCaffrey or Leonard Fournette somehow made it to 21. In this case, I'm giving Detroit the most talented back in this class, Mixon, in the second round. He has off-the-field issues and won't be on the draft boards for every team, but he's a phenomenal all-purpose player. Basham is a premium pass-rusher who's a great fit at end in a 4-3.

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Miami Dolphins
Round 1 (22): Jarrad Davis, LB, Florida
Round 2 (54): Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Colorado
Round 3 (97): Zach Banner, OL, USC


With Forrest Lamp and the top-four cornerbacks off the board, I'm moving on to linebacker for the Dolphins, who are set in the middle with Kiko Alonso but have questions at both outside spots. Enter Davis, whose intangibles I love. He's a reliable linebacker with a nose for the football who could play inside or outside in the NFL. He has the potential to be an every-down player. I like 2016 second-round pick Xavien Howard at corner, but as I've said, this is a passing league. Teams need corners. Awuzie is the best tackling corner in this draft. He tackles so well that he could play safety. Banner could be Miami's answer at guard, with Laremy Tunsil moving outside to left tackle. Banner (6-foot-8, 353 pounds) started three seasons at right tackle for the Trojans, but I don't think he has the athleticism to play outside in the NFL.

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New York Giants
Round 1 (23): Charles Harris, DE, Missouri
Round 2 (55): Marcus Williams, S, Utah
Round 3 (87): Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma


I'm not sold on the Giants' offensive tackles, but for now, I'm going with a pass-rusher who can spell Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon. Harris is a versatile defender who could play for all 32 teams. He had 16 sacks the past two seasons. Last year's third-round pick, Darian Thompson, missed most of the 2016 season because of injury, and we still don't know if he's the long-term answer at free safety. Williams is a super athletic (43½-inch vertical) center fielder who would fit alongside Landon Collins. Perine is just a bully. At 5-foot-11, 233 pounds, he steamrollers defenders. New York had one of the worst rushing offenses in the league last season, and Perine brings value late in the third round.

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Oakland Raiders
Round 1 (24) Tre'Davious White, CB, LSU
Round 2 (56): Carlos Watkins, DT, Clemson
Round 3 (88): D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas
The Raiders' defense is only a couple pieces away from being Super Bowl-caliber, and there's no doubt that they will be scouring the cornerbacks in this class. White, a four-year starter, could play outside or in the slot, and he could also help in the return game. Watkins is an explosive pass-rusher in a big frame (6-foot-3, 309 pounds). If he had been more consistent on every down, he might be a first-round pick. Oakland just cut veteran nose tackle Dan Williams, so there's an opening. The Raiders are still chasing Marshawn Lynch, but for now, I'll give them a runner in the mold of Lynch. At 6-0, 233 pounds, Foreman ran for more than 2,000 yards last season, but a stress fracture in his foot kept him out of combine workouts. He did have an impressive pro day, however, with a 4.45 40.

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Houston Texans
Round 1 (25): Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama
Round 2 (57): Nathan Peterman, QB, Pitt
Round 3 (89): Taywan Taylor, WR, Western Kentucky


Once again, the 25 spot is a reach for quarterbacks, according to my rankings. I'll give Bill O'Brien's squad an eventual replacement for Duane Brown in Robinson, who is a powerful run-blocker but needs to clean up some things to reach his potential. That means I'm going with a quarterback in the second round, and it's Peterman, my No. 4-ranked signal-caller. He doesn't have big-time arm strength, but that should improve when he gets into the league. He's a steady QB with room to grow into a starter and could compete with Tom Savage. Taylor, who had 34 touchdown catches the past two seasons, doesn't have ideal size (5-foot-11, 203 pounds) or speed (4.50 40), but he could develop into a reliable No. 3 receiver.
 

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Seattle Seahawks
Round 1 (26): Garett Bolles, OT, Utah
Round 2 (58): Ahkello Witherspoon, CB, Colorado
Round 3 (90): Larry Ogunjobi, DT, Charlotte
Round 3 (102): Tim Williams, OLB, Alabama
Round 3 (106): Dalvin Tomlinson, DT, Alabama


Everyone knows the Seahawks' need along the offensive line, but I'm sure they'll be keeping an eye on corners here too, especially if they deal Richard Sherman before the draft (that could mess up their allotment of picks here). Bolles, who turns 25 before the season, is a mauler who is probably better on the right side. He started only one season for the Utes after coming over from a junior college. If lanky corner Kevin King doesn't fall to Seattle in the first round, Seattle could nab Witherspoon, who has a similar frame (6-foot-3, 198 pounds). Ogunjobi and Tomlinson are big bodies who can get into the backfield, and the Seahawks love to rotate along the defensive line. Williams is a bit of a wild card in this draft. He does one thing superbly -- sack quarterbacks -- and that's a skill teams covet. But he needs to improve the rest of his game. Williams could find a role as a situational pass-rusher for Seattle.

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Kansas City Chiefs
Round 1 (27): Zach Cunningham, ILB, Vanderbilt
Round 2 (59): Chris Godwin, WR, Penn State
Round 3 (91): Alvin Kamara, RB, Tennessee
Round 3 (104): DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame


The Chiefs are another team that could take a quarterback in Rounds 1 or 2, but I would put other needs higher. Derrick Johnson can't man the middle of the Kansas City defense forever, and he's recovering from an Achilles injury suffered in December. Cunningham, a tackling machine with sideline-to-sideline range, could be his successor. I also think the Chiefs need help at receiver and running back. Godwin flashed No. 1 receiver ability at times for the Nittany Lions, and his 4.42 40 at his size showed his athleticism. Kamara was a part-time back in college and probably won't be a three-down back in the NFL, but he has some explosion. I thought Kizer, my No. 6-ranked quarterback, should have stayed in school for another year. He isn't ready to play, and he'll have to sit behind a veteran and develop. Alex Smith's contract is up in 2018, which gives Kizer two years to absorb Andy Reid's offense.

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Dallas Cowboys
Round 1 (28): Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee
Round 2 (60): Fabian Moreau, CB, UCLA
Round 3 (92): Gerald Everett, TE, South Alabama


I expect the Cowboys to draft defense on Day 1, and defensive back is in play after Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne and J.J. Wilcox departed in free agency. If Barnett is available at 28, though, Dallas has a chance to grab a pass-rusher who could put up double-digit sacks annually. Former second-round picks DeMarcus Lawrence and Randy Gregory combined for only two sacks last season, and Gregory is suspended for at least the 2017 season. Barnett was one of the most productive defenders in college football throughout his career (33 total sacks). Moreau tore a pectoral muscle at his pro day, but his workouts and 4.35 40 at the combine impressed scouts, so he won't drop far. Dallas could get starters with its first two picks. This tight end class is deep, and the Cowboys could bet on Everett as an eventual replacement for Jason Witten, though they have tried that in the past, including using second-round picks on Martellus Bennett and Gavin Escobar. Everett (6-foot-3, 239 pounds) is more of a pass-catcher than blocker.

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Green Bay Packers
Round 1 (29): Takkarist McKinley, OLB, UCLA
Round 2 (61): Sidney Jones, CB, Washington
Round 3 (93): James Conner, RB, Pitt


Yes, the Packers brought back Nick Perry with a $60 million deal in March, but McKinley is too good to pass up if he falls to 29. He's a perfect fit in a 3-4 defense, a speed rusher who broke out in 2016 with 10 sacks and three forced fumbles. Put him in the rotation with Perry and Clay Matthews, and let them pile up the sacks and QB hurries. Jones, a three-year starter, might be looking at a redshirt year after he tore his Achilles at the Huskies' pro day in March. We would have been a top-20 pick if he were healthy. If the Packers stay out of the Adrian Peterson sweepstakes, it appears they're going with converted receiver Ty Montgomery as their starter. Conner is a bruising back (6-foot-1, 233 pounds) who doesn't have elite speed (4.65 40). He'll be available in the middle rounds.

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Pittsburgh Steelers
Round 1 (30): Zay Jones, WR, East Carolina
Round 2 (62): Tyus Bowser, OLB, Houston
Round 3 (94): Rasul Douglas, CB, West Virginia
Round 3 (105): Kendell Beckwith, ILB, LSU
If Martavis Bryant gets reinstated from suspension, Pittsburgh's need at receiver drops. For now I'm giving the team Jones, another one of my favorite prospects in this class. He plays hard -- he'll drop a pass on one play and then go make a great block on the next -- and he had 158 catches for the Pirates last season. Bowser's dropping to 62 might be a dream scenario for the Steelers, but he has to go to a 3-4 team, and Pittsburgh is an ideal fit. Douglas, a junior-college transfer, had eight interceptions last season, but his 4.59 40 will probably keep him out of the second round. Beckwith, who started three seasons for the Tigers, tore his ACL in November. He has the size (6-foot-2, 243 pounds) to play inside in a 3-4.

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Atlanta Falcons
Round 1 (31): Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan
Round 2 (63): Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut
Round 3 (95): Dorian Johnson, OG, Pitt


Atlanta's offense was so good last season that its defensive woes were disguised. The Falcons gave up 25.4 points per game, which ranked 27th in the league. As such, defense should be the priority, even after hitting on Keanu Neal and Deion Jones in the first two rounds last year. I've pegged Charlton as a good fit for the Falcons for the past month. Vic Beasley Jr. had 15.5 sacks last season, but no other Falcon had more than 4.5. Charlton can help against the run too. Melifonwu showed off a 44-inch vertical and 11-foot-9 broad jump at the combine, and he could rise all the way to Round 1. With Chris Chester now retired, Atlanta has an opening at right guard. Johnson started there the past three seasons.

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Los Angeles Rams
Round 2 (37): Antonio Garcia, OT, Troy
Round 3 (69): ArDarius Stewart, WR, Alabama
With no first-round pick (traded to the Titans in last year's Jared Goff deal), a new coach and several holes on their roster, the Rams must hit on their first pick. Adding to the offensive line could be the safest bet here. Los Angeles brought in Andrew Whitworth and John Sullivan as short-term solutions at left tackle and center, respectively, after giving up the second-most sacks in the league (49) last season, but this is still a need. Garcia started 42 games on the left side in college, and I think he could start at tackle immediately in the NFL. Stewart, my eighth-ranked receiver, is undersized (5-foot-11, 204 pounds), but he's an all-around player and willing blocker.

i


Minnesota Vikings
Round 2 (48): Caleb Brantley, DT, Florida
Round 3 (79): Duke Riley, LB, LSU
Round 3 (86): Amara Darboh, WR, Michigan


The Vikings almost certainly will try to take an offensive lineman on Day 2, but I don't have any left on the board at 48. As a result, I'm switching gears to defense, where there are questions about former first-round pick Sharrif Floyd's future. Snagging Brantley, my third-ranked defensive tackle, in the second round is good value. He had an up-and-down career but was incredibly disruptive when he played at his best. Riley is a versatile defender who started only one season for LSU but made plays all over the field. With the extra third-round pick they received when the Dolphins traded up last year, I'm giving Minnesota a project receiver in Darboh, who had 14 career touchdowns.

i


New England Patriots
Round 3 (72): Carl Lawson, DE, Auburn
Round 3 (96): Ryan Anderson, OLB, Alabama
The Patriots traded out of the first round (with the Saints for Brandin Cooks) and second round (with the Panthers for Kony Ealy), but they added a second third-rounder in the trade with Carolina. Rob Ninkovich is a free agent in 2018, and the Patriots could find a replacement here. Lawson, a former freshman All-American, was seen as a potential Day 1 guy before injuries wrecked his 2014 and 2015 seasons. He returned with nine sacks last season and should be available in Round 3. Anderson did it all for the Crimson Tide as a steady, complete defender.
 

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Mock Draft 4.1: New top-10 picks, new lottery teams


1. Boston Celtics (via Nets)*


Markelle Fultz
Washington
Freshman
Guard

i


The Celtics are flush with talent, with intriguing young players or prospects at all five positions. With a high draft pick, they are likely to just take the best player available.

Based on conversations with NBA scouts, it looks like Fultz has a slight edge on Lonzo Ball as the No. 1 choice for most teams. For the Celtics, Fultz's ability to play multiple positions has value, given their stocked roster.

Odds of winning lottery: 25 percent (Boston owns the rights to swap picks with Brooklyn)



2. Phoenix Suns


Lonzo Ball
UCLA
Freshman
Guard


i


All indications are that Ball is dying to play for the Lakers, but right now the Suns have slightly better odds of getting the No. 2 pick in the draft. Would the Suns draft a point guard given that they already have several talented PGs on their roster? Absolutely.

Ball is a better playmaker than Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight and would be able to get the most out of the rest of the Suns' young talent. And landing Ball would allow the Suns to use Bledsoe, Knight or both to land another significant piece this summer.

Odds of winning lottery: 19.9 percent





3. L.A. Lakers*


Josh Jackson
Kansas
Freshman
Forward

i


The Lakers' late-season winning streak dropped their chances of landing a top-3 pick from 51.3 percent to 46.9 percent.

Jackson certainly made his case for the No. 1 pick, especially over the last month of the season. So if the Lakers land here at third, Jackson really isn't just a consolation prize. Jackson is the best two-way player in the draft and would bring an intensity, toughness and winning mentality that the Lakers desperately need.

Odds of winning lottery: 15.6 percent. (Sixers get the Lakers' pick if it falls outside the top three.)





4. Philadelphia 76ers




Malik Monk
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

i


The 76ers finally got their tank on at the end of the season and upped their chances of getting the No. 1 pick by about three percent.

If both Fultz and Ball are off the board, Monk would be an especially attractive choice. Ben Simmons can be the full-time point forward for the Sixers, but they'll need a backcourt player who can shoot and open up the offense.

Monk's the most lethal perimeter scorer in the draft. Jayson Tatum and Dennis Smith are other potential candidates at No. 5.

Odds of winning lottery: 11.9 percent







5. Orlando Magic




Jayson Tatum
Duke
Freshman
Forward

i


The Magic fired GM Rob Hennigan after the season, so there will be a new front office in place to make this pick. That makes the Magic selection a little tougher to project.

Tatum is the prototypical NBA small forward. He can score from anywhere on the floor, though his consistency as a 3-point shooter has been questioned.

Odds of winning lottery: 8.8 percent







6. Minnesota Timberwolves




Lauri Markkanen
Arizona
Freshman
Forward

i


Markkanen plays like the prototypical NBA 4. He's an elite shooter who can stretch the floor, make plays and still do work in the paint.

His rebounding skills are a work in progress, but everything else about his game looks a little Dirk Nowitzki-like. He should be a great fit in Minnesota.

Odds of winning lottery: 5.3 percent





7. New York Knicks




De'Aaron Fox
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

i


The Knicks will take a close look at Fox, Smith and Frank Ntilikina if they're all available. With Derrick Rose likely to leave the Knicks via free agency this summer, landing a young point guard to play next to Kristaps Porzingis looks like a strong option for New York.

Fox isn't a great perimeter shooter, but he has every other attribute you want in point guard. If he ever gets a solid jumper, he could be a star.

Odds of winning lottery: 5.3 percent.





8. Sacramento Kings




Dennis Smith
NC State
Freshman
Guard

i


The Kings need a young point guard badly.

Early in the season, before the Wolfpack's season fell apart, some scouts had Smith as a potential No. 1 pick. He's an elite athlete, excels at getting to the rim and has shown off a solid perimeter game.

Odds of winning lottery: 2.8 percent. (If the Kings move ahead of Philadelphia in the lottery and are in the top 10, they swap spots with the Sixers. If Sacramento's pick falls outside the top 10, it will go to Chicago.)







9. Dallas Mavericks




Frank Ntilikina
France
Age: 18
Guard

i




The Mavs have one of the best international scouting staffs in the league and will be stoked if Ntilikina is still on the board. In a draft less loaded with point guards, he could be a top-five pick. He's skilled, tough and a good shooter.

He would have a great shot at being the Mavs' point guard of the future to run with young players like Harrison Barnes and Nerlens Noel.

Odds of winning lottery: 1.7 percent.





10. Sacramento Kings (via Pelicans)*




Jonathan Isaac
Florida State
Freshman
Forward

i


Isaac may have the most upside of any of the wings in the draft. He has elite length, strokes the 3, runs the floor like a guard and rebounds. He just needs to add a lot of strength.

If the Kings can walk away from this draft adding Smith and Isaac to a young core that includes Buddy Hield, Skal Labissiere and Willie Cauley-Stein, they'll be in great shape in a couple of more years to finally break that playoff drought.

Odds of winning lottery: 1.1 percent. (Sacramento will get New Orleans' pick if it falls outside the top three.)
 

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11. Charlotte Hornets




Harry Giles
Duke
Freshman
Forward

i


Given his injury history, we won't know what Giles' real draft value is until NBA doctors get a look at his knees. But assuming, for now, that his knees check out, this is the point in the draft where Giles' reward begins to outweigh the risk.

Based on sheer talent, he's one of the three best players in the draft. His slow recovery from an ACL tear in high school -- as well as another knee surgery last fall -- hampered his play for Duke. But if he checks out medically, Giles has a chance to be a monster player in a few years and would be a terrific fit on the front line of the Hornets.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.8 percent





12. Detroit Pistons




Zach Collins
Gonzaga
Freshman
Center

i


Collins proved he's worthy of a lottery pick with a dominant 14-point, 13-rebound, six-block performance coming off the bench for the Zags in the Final Four versus South Carolina. He added another nine points, seven rebounds and three blocks in the title game vs. UNC, but played limited minutes because of foul trouble.

Scouts look beyond the stat sheet -- though the advanced analytics are bullish on him -- at what he did almost every time he stepped onto the court. He played above the rim, was bouncy and energetic, stretched the floor and competed with toughness.

Plus, he's used to playing with a more traditional center. In Detroit, he could make a very interesting pairing next to Andre Drummond.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.7 percent





13. Denver Nuggets




OG Anunoby
Indiana
Sophomore
Forward

i


The Nuggets have done as good a job as any team in finding gems in the draft. Anunoby could be another.

Anunoby is recovering from knee surgery and might not even be able to play as a rookie. But his talent level as a two-way player is off the charts and the Nuggets could use a player like him over the long-term.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.6 percent





14. Miami Heat




TJ Leaf
UCLA
Freshman
Forward

i


The Heat already have an elite shot-blocker in the middle, so drafting a skilled 4 like Leaf seems like a sound option -- especially after seeing how Luke Babbitt fits with the team.

Leaf draws Babbitt comparisons because of his inside-outside skill set, but he's tougher and a better athlete. He would be a long-term upgrade for Miami.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.5 percent







15. Portland Trail Blazers




Justin Patton
Creighton
Freshman
Center

i


Patton is a major work in progress, but there is a high ceiling if a team can be patient with him -- and the Blazers can.

They wouldn't need him to start. They could bring him along slowly. Over time, he should be a strong contributor.





16. Chicago Bulls




Jarrett Allen
Texas
Freshman
Center

i


Things are looking up for the Bulls after a surprising Game 1 win against the Celtics in the playoffs. The team still has a number of needs in the draft.

Allen is a project, but an intriguing one. His defense is ahead of his offense right now, but he made major offensive strides at the end of the season.

He seems to be coming on at the right time and could be a nice backup to Robin Lopez for the next year or two while he adds strength and experience.





17. Milwaukee Bucks




Edrice Adebayo
Kentucky
Freshman
Forward

i


"Bam" played much better over the last month of the college season. When he plays with toughness as a rebounder and finisher at the rim, he looks the part of a lottery pick.

The Bucks could use that toughness in the paint to balance all the skilled perimeter players they employ.





18. Indiana Pacers




Luke Kennard
Duke
Sophomore
Guard

i


Kennard not only is the best shooter in the draft, but also showed the ability to be a playmaker as a sophomore at Duke.

He also exhibits a toughness and competitiveness that sets him apart from other "pure shooters" in the draft. The Pacers could certainly use the help at both the 1 and the 2.





19. Atlanta Hawks




Terrance Ferguson
Australia
Age: 19
Guard

i




Ferguson is one of the few elite shooters in this draft.

His numbers didn't always show that in Australia, but given the dearth of guys who can let it fly -- and the Hawks' needs in this area with Kyle Korver gone -- he should be a strong fit in time.







20. Portland Trail Blazers (via Grizzlies)




Ike Anigbogu
UCLA
Freshman
Center


i


Anigbogu would bring toughness to Portland. He's a terrific rebounder and shot-blocker.

Offensively, he's raw, but the Blazers would be able to have the patience to bring him along slowly.





21. Oklahoma City Thunder




Justin Jackson
North Carolina
Junior
Forward

i




Jackson has always had an elite midrange game, and his development as a 3-point shooter has increased his draft value this year.

He was terrific vs. Oregon in the Final Four, scoring 22 points and hitting four 3s. However, his play against Gonzaga was spotty. He ended with 16 points but shot 0-for-9 from 3-point range.

He would be especially intriguing for the Thunder, a team still trying to figure out a long-term solution at the 3.
 

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22. Brooklyn Nets (via Wizards)




Ivan Rabb
Cal
Sophomore
Forward

i


Rabb was considered a likely lottery pick at the end of last season. He improved as a sophomore, but not as much as scouts would've liked.

He's a good rebounder and he can score around the basket, though his emerging perimeter game has scouts questioning if playing in the paint will ever be a strength for him. Still, he's a good prospect at this point in the draft.





23. Toronto Raptors (via Clippers)




John Collins
Wake Forest
Sophomore
Forward

i


Collins was one of the most efficient players in college basketball the past two years. He plays hard, scores in the paint and rebounds well.

He still needs to develop more of a face-up game, but the raw tools are there.





24. Utah Jazz


Moritz Wagner
Michigan
Sophomore
Forward

i


Wagner impressed a lot of NBA scouts down the stretch, especially in an NCAA tournament game against Louisville when he dropped 26 points.

He's a skilled big man who can stretch the floor and play in the post, and he's just six months older than Markkanen, a prospect with similar skills. Wagner is really good value at this point in the draft.







25. Orlando Magic (via Raptors)




Jawun Evans
Oklahoma State
Sophomore
Guard

i




There's a dearth of point guards in this draft after the top five picks are off the board. But Evans has promise both as a scorer and a playmaker.

He can shoot 3s, get to the rim and set up the pass by creating his own shot. If the Magic miss out on a point guard with their first pick, he'll be a strong fit here.







26. Portland Trail Blazers (via Cavaliers)*




Isaiah Hartenstein
Germany
Age: 18
Forward



i


Hartenstein played to mixed reviews at the Nike Hoop Summit in Portland. He's a good athlete and has solid size for his position, but his unorthodox jumper and emotional nature worry scouts a bit.

He's a good draft-and-stash option this late in the draft.





27. Brooklyn Nets (via Celtics)*


Andrew Jones
Texas
Freshman
Guard

i


There are a lot of scouts who feel like Jones is a major sleeper. He's an elite athlete who plays above the rim and has shown the ability to knock down the 3. He really came along in Big 12 play.

The Nets need to continue to swing for the fences with these late draft picks and hope they connect. Jones is a good bet down this low.







28. L.A. Lakers (via Rockets)*




Tony Bradley
North Carolina
Freshman
Center

i


Bradley played a small role for the Tar Heels, but his length, rebounding and advanced stats all point to a talent that just needs time.

The Lakers have been happy with their 2016 second-round pick, Ivica Zubac, and bringing in another young big would give them some nice depth.







29. San Antonio Spurs



D.J. Wilson
Michigan
Junior
Forward


i


Wilson has the physical tools to be a terrific stretch-4 in the league. He's a great athlete who can shoot the 3 and protect the rim.

It feels like he's just scratching the surface of what he could become someday.





30. Utah Jazz (via Warriors)*






Rodions Kurucs
Latvia
Age: 19
Forward


i


This is the second first-round pick for the Jazz. Kurucs is a major work in progress. He has length and athleticism, but his game and his body have a long way to go.

However, as a draft-and-stash prospect, he's a solid get at this point.
 

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Ranking the all-time best FSU Seminoles teams

The Jimbo Fisher-led Florida State Seminoles have won 10 games or more in five consecutive seasons.

So where do Fisher's squads rank among the greatest Florida State teams of all time?


To find out, I set up a grading system that is customized to measure many factors of Florida State's greatest teams.

The system uses a weighted bell curve structure that places a heavy emphasis on winning national championships, but also gives significant credit for wins against ranked opponents and having a large number of players on the first-team or consensus All-American squads and first-team All-Conference teams. It also awards extra value for high rankings in sports-reference.com's Simple Rating System (SRS) and Strength of Schedule (SOS) metrics.

This system was designed to allow clubs from any era to compete on a level field with teams from other eras. The idea here is that the Bill Peterson and Bobby Bowden championship squads should not be punished for playing in eras that had fewer games per season than today's teams, but rather should be measured on the relative strength of their particular accomplishments.

The system was also adjusted to a 0-100 point scale, with 100 being the best ranking a team could possibly achieve.

With the preliminaries out of the way, let's take a look at the top five teams in Florida State history.

1. Season: 1993

85.4 points (12-1, ACC & national champions)

Top players: Charlie Ward, Derrick Brooks, Derrick Alexander, Corey Sawyer, Warrick Dunn

The 1993 Seminoles held six of their first eight opponents to seven or fewer points while scoring 40 or more points in six of those contests. A heartbreaking 31-24 loss to Notre Dame in Week 12 looked to derail this team's national title hopes, but a Fighting Irish upset loss to Boston College in Week 13 opened the door for the Seminoles to move back to a No. 1 ranking. A Week 14 win at No. 7 Florida and an Orange Bowl victory over No. 2 Nebraska sealed Florida State's national championship. Charlie Ward was the leading player on this squad, as his Heisman Trophy win was the crowning achievement for one of the most decorated player in college football history.

2. Season: 1999

84.9 points (12-0, ACC & national champions)

Top players: Peter Warrick, Chris Weinke, Corey Simon, Jason Whitaker, Sebastian Janikowski

As great as the 1993 team was, its loss to Notre Dame meant that Florida State fans were constantly being told that their only national champion was a flawed titleholder. The 1999 squad put that talk to rest by becoming the first team to go wire-to-wire as the No. 1 ranked team in the Associated Press weekly rankings. An off-field incident kept Peter Warrick from winning the Heisman Trophy, but his awe-inspiring catch in the fourth quarter of the Sugar Bowl clinched the BCS title win for the Seminoles. This team had four consensus All-Americans, a total tied for the most in this analysis.

3. Season: 2013

76.3 points (14-0, ACC & national champions)

Top players: Lamarcus Joyner, Timmy Jernigan, Cameron Erving, Bryan Stork, Roberto Aguayo, Jameis Winston

This incredibly talent roster included eight players who were named to a first-team All-American team, four players who were named consensus All-Americans and a first-team freshman All-American in Jalen Ramsey. The 2013 Seminoles closed the regular season by winning their last five games by a combined 280-34 score. That led to a BCS title game tilt against Auburn, a contest won when Kelvin Benjamin caught a touchdown pass with only 13 seconds left in the game. Had it not been for the second lowest SOS score (1.3) and 19th ranked overall schedule, this team may have ranked first on this list.

4. Season: 1997

67.2 points (11-1, ACC champion)

Top players: Sam Cowart, Andre Wadsworth, Samari Rolle, Thad Busby, E.G. Green, Daryl Bush

The 1997 Seminoles faced a tough schedule that included matchups against AP ranked foes in six of their 12 games. This club's defense was capable of shutting down offenses, as it held six teams to a single-digit point total, including three AP ranked squads. A national title berth looked to be in line when this team took a 29-25 lead late in the fourth quarter of its regular-season-ending contest at Florida, but the Gators put together a miraculous comeback to win 32-29. That kept this team from winning a national championship, but a 31-14 Sugar Bowl win over Ohio State put this team into season-ending AP top three and helped it to a top five spot on this list.

5. Season: 1980

67.1 points (10-2)

Top players: Ron Simmons, Bobby Butler, Rohn Stark, Reggie Herring, Monk Bonasorte

Bowden made his reputation early in his Florida State coaching career by overcoming brutal schedules. This team was a perfect example, as it had the highest SOS rating (9.5) and second highest overall schedule strength among teams in this group. This team defeated Florida for a fourth consecutive season, a streak that is still tied for the longest Florida State win streak in this series. The Seminoles had a 17-10 fourth-quarter lead in the Orange Bowl matchup against Oklahoma, but the Sooners drove for a touchdown and hit a two-point conversion with 1:33 left in the game to clinch an 18-17 win. Ron Simmons was this club's best player, as he became the first Seminoles player to be named a two-time consensus All-American.

Now let's take a quick look at the teams that ended up rated 6-10.

6. Season: 1994

65.8 points (10-1-1, ACC champion)

The Choke at Doak may sound like a Florida State upset loss, but it was actually the name of arguably the greatest comeback in college football history. The Seminoles overcame a 31-3 fourth-quarter deficit to tie Florida 31-31. That led to the Fifth Quarter in the French Quarter, a Sugar Bowl rematch between these teams that Florida State won 23-17.

7. Season: 1989

65.2 points (10-2)

This team's claim to fame is having overcome an 0-2 start to run off 10 consecutive wins to land a No. 3 ranking in the final AP poll of the season. They did this despite facing five AP-ranked foes in that time frame, including No. 2 ranked Miami, and traveling to Gainesville to face archrival Florida. Those matchups are a big part of why this squad had the toughest schedule in this analysis.

8. Season: 1996

63.2 points (11-1, ACC champion)

The 1996 Seminoles notched one of the greatest wins in team history by beating No. 1 Florida by a 24-21 scored in the regular-season finale. Florida State fans will argue to this very day that this victory should have precluded a rematch against Florida in the Sugar Bowl, but the bowl committees saw it differently and arranged for these teams to face each other again in a game that ultimately saw the Gators win the national championship.

9. Season: 1998

63.1 points (11-2, ACC champion)

This team may be remembered for its Fiesta Bowl national championship loss to Tennessee, but any Florida State fan from that era will tell you that the most memorable game of that season was when backup quarterback Marcus Outzen started in place of injured Chris Weinke and led the Seminoles to a 23-12 victory over the No. 4 Gators. That victory opened the door to the national championship game berth when No. 2 UCLA and No. 3 Kansas State both were upset that same weekend.

10. Season: 2000

62.4 points (11-2, ACC champion)

This team closed out the Seminoles 14-season streak of posting at least 10 wins and placing in the season-ending AP top five. Their five first-team All-Americans placed tied for third best in this analysis. Had this team won its BCS title game against Oklahoma, it would have ranked among the top three in Florida State history.

Finally, here are the teams that rated 11-24.

11. 1992, 60.9 points (11-1, ACC champion)
12. 1987, 58.1 points (11-1)
13. 1991, 56.4 points (11-2)
14. 2014, 56.1 points (13-1, ACC champion, CFP semifinalist)
15. 1988, 53.3 points (11-1)
16. 2003, 48.4 points (10-3, ACC champion)
17. 1964, 46.7 points (9-1-1)
18. 1979, 45.1 points (11-1)
19. 2002, 42.0 points (9-5, ACC champion)
20. 1977, 40.3 points (10-2)
21. 1990, 39.6 points (10-2)
22. 1995, 39.1 points (10-2, ACC champion)
23. 2005, 36.2 points (8-5, ACC champion)
24. 2012, 31.6 points (12-2, ACC champion)
 

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5-on-5: Will the Pacers trade Paul George? Should they?

Has Paul George played his last game for the Pacers? Is Myles Turner the future superstar cornerstone?

Our 5-on-5 crew debates and predicts Indiana's next moves.







1. The Pacers _________ trade Paul George this offseason.
A. Should and will
B. Should but won't
C. Shouldn't but will
D. Shouldn't and won't


Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: A. If (and only if) George does not make the All-NBA team this season. Should he be named to such an honor, the Pacers would be eligible to offer him a deal that would be about $70 million more lucrative than any other open-market offer, a sum that would certainly keep him in a Pacers uniform. However, without that safety net, the Pacers would face too large a flight risk, and so they'd be better off moving aggressively rather than waiting.

Chris Herring, FiveThirtyEight/ESPN.com: A. Dropping this series in frustrating fashion doesn't help the case to keep him. But at this point, without the potential lure of extra money through the Designated Player Exception (DPE), I don't think you can risk losing someone that talented -- for nothing -- in his prime, especially not when there are reports saying he's interested in going elsewhere. Go acquire a pick or two to get players closer in age to Myles Turner.

Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: D. Trading George signals a total rebuild. It's easy to say that's what needs to happen. However, with Indiana, you're talking about an 82-year-old owner (Herb Simon) and a 60-year-old hoops executive (Larry Bird). The Pacers have the flexibility to make themselves over this summer, and they need to make a run at doing so before dealing away an irreplaceable talent.

Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: Probably B. There's certainly a case to be made for dealing him and "blowing it up." The Pacers have finished seventh in the East and been ousted in the first round two straight years. Before that, they finished ninth. They're the mayors of "no man's land."

Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: D. I'm not convinced the Pacers can get enough value from teams that aren't certain they can re-sign George -- or from the Los Angeles Lakers if they believe they can sign him without having to give up picks or young players in return -- to justify giving up the chance he makes the All-NBA Team next year. While George probably can't maintain his level of play over the last month for a full season, if he comes close, there will probably be an All-NBA spot for him.









2. What else do you foresee and advise for the Pacers this offseason?


Herring: Depending on what happens with George, it may make sense to tear the process all the way down and start over. If you end up keeping him, which is risky for any number of reasons, you need to substantially improve the team to make sure he doesn't go into free agency next summer disappointed with the direction of the franchise.

That means finding guys who would be upgrades over Jeff Teague and C.J. Miles. Since I don't have faith they can convince those sorts of talents to play for a stagnant Pacers team, I'd probably advise dealing George and starting over.

Elhassan: Obviously, the George domino will dictate much of the direction Indiana should take. If George is to be moved, the most prudent course of action is to divest themselves of the other large salaries on the books (Thaddeus Young and Monta Ellis to start) and begin to craft the next vision of Pacers basketball around Myles Turner.



Doolittle: We'll see just how much the Pacers are hamstrung by the contracts Bird has given out that last couple of years for middling players like Ellis, Thaddeus Young and Al Jefferson. The Pacers should re-sign Teague, who not only fits well with George, but gives Indiana the chance to play faster if the right roster is put into place.

Then they need to make a run at Hoosier State native Gordon Hayward, clearing cap space as needed. A core four of George, Teague, Hayward and Turner would need only to be augmented with a 3-and-D wing to be a dynamite unit.

Engelmann: Teague has played well for the Pacers (real plus-minus: 1.5). If they can retain him for less than 80 percent of the max, they should.

Miles, if he's smart, will opt out. On the free agent market, he'll command more than double the $4.7 million he is making now. He also should be re-signed if the price is right, say, $13 million per season.

Pelton: A relatively quiet offseason, presuming Indiana is able to re-sign Jeff Teague at a reasonable price. If so, Teague's cap hold will swallow up most of the Pacers' cap space, particularly if C.J. Miles opts out (a virtual certainty) and re-signs. The Pacers could tweak their backup frontcourt rotation, but I think that's about it.






3. Larry Bird wants the Pacers to play fast. How do they get there?
Pelton: Not with Nate McMillan as coach, given that this was the second-fastest team relative to league average he's coached for a full season (and the fastest since the 2003-04 Seattle SuperSonics).

But I'm not sure that playing faster would make Indiana a better team. The relationship between pace and performance remains a tenuous one at best. The bottom 10 teams in pace this season actually posted a better offensive rating (106.2) than the top 10 (105.6). And the middle third, in which the Pacers resided, were better yet (106.9).

Engelmann: By replacing coach Nate McMillan? His Trail Blazer teams were continuously among the slowest teams in the NBA. Playing fast simply doesn't appear to be his style. That said, pace isn't strongly correlated with team success, so it seems kind of pointless to shoehorn a roster that might rather play slow into a different style.

Elhassan: First of all, having a coach with a track record of coaching fast would be a nice start. Next, not stocking the roster with notorious plodders and ball stoppers. Third, adding some more pass-first, quick-decision-making talents.

Herring: This was one of those things that made the Nate McMillan hire so strange to me in the first place, given that his teams had a reputation for playing so slowly.

But if I were Bird watching this series, I'd be far more concerned with finding a way to regain the defensive edge the Pacers had three or four years ago. You can win big without playing fast, but it's much harder to accomplish that without playing defense. Cleveland may be able to do it, but the Pacers probably can't.

Doolittle: Follow my plan in No. 2 and the Pacers can play fast. This year's roster just had too many plodders -- Jefferson, Kevin Seraphin, Lavoy Allen and, arguably, Young. Of course, this is all contingent on getting George to play the 4 and like it.









4. Fact or fiction: Myles Turner is the future superstar cornerstone for Indiana.


Elhassan: Faction. He's a tremendous shot blocker and defensive presence with a more than respectable perimeter stroke that extends to 3-point range. He might not be a superstar, but he's a pretty good asset to have in the cupboard, with a skill set that will fit in nearly any incarnation of a winning team.

Pelton: Fiction. I think it's unlikely that Turner develops into a top-10 player given his current trajectory. A more realistic outcome is him emerging as a top-25 player who's an All-Star most years. That could be a cornerstone piece, but I wouldn't call that a superstar.

Herring: Both. He becomes the player you build around if George walks. But based on what we've seen so far -- a ton of ability and athleticism, but likely still a rung beneath someone like Karl-Anthony Towns or Nikola Jokic -- you still need to find more young running mates for him to experience sustainable teamwide success. I'm not sure Turner's talent alone gets you there in the future.



Doolittle: Assuming his game continues to grow, Turner should be a foundation-quality player for a team in contention. I'm not sure I see him as a cornerstone because he's not a a great offensive creator, either for himself or others. But maybe he can get there.

As for his combo skills of deep shooting and shot-blocking, it's funny how much less rare that package now seems after basically half of the centers in the NBA took to shooting 3-pointers.

Engelmann: Fact, or at least, I think so. Turner just turned 21 and is one of the top 40 players in the NBA, according to Real Plus-Minus. He's a "modern" center that can shoot 3s, and he also gets steals and blocks while not turning the ball over often. His rebounding needs some work, though; currently, he grabs only 6.3 defensive boards per 36 minutes.





5. If Pacers were a stock and you were looking three years ahead, would you buy, sell or hold?
Herring: Sell. If George departs, things would get ugly. But that'd still be best for the long-term growth of the franchise, which has made the playoffs 22 of the past 28 seasons.

George, a former No. 10 pick, is the only top-10 selection the Pacers have had in 20 years. It's so hard to find franchise-altering talent without being a high-end lottery team. The next few years would be painful, which is why I'd sell. But the long-term outlook would improve.

Elhassan: Hold. While I'm not completely sold on Larry Bird's idea of how to rebuild this team, history tells us that Indiana is very rarely awful. Any George trade is sure to net a luxurious haul, and as I mentioned above, Turner is a nice piece to build around in the meanwhile.

Doolittle: Sell. The path to immediate contention -- landing a premier free agent in addition to keeping Teague -- is a long shot. If George wants out at some point, then you're starting at ground level. You don't get from there to relevancy in three years, especially when the process has yet to start as of the close of the 2016-17 season.

Engelmann: Hold. Pacers management has been pretty average when it comes to putting together a competitive team. Their roster decisions are never home runs. Rather, they include some head-scratchers, like the recent George Hill trade.

Pelton: Hold. While I think Turner's a good enough centerpiece that Indiana would probably be undervalued by the market because of concern about George leaving, I don't feel confident enough about the Pacers' ability to put a winning team around Turner to actually buy up shares. Turner might be the only player on the current roster more likely than not to still be around in three years.
 

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McShay's final tier rankings for 2017 NFL draft


As the 2017 NFL draft draws closer, it's time to finalize our draft tier rankings, which uses our grades to separate prospects into segments. This is helpful when comparing players who are close to each other in the rankings. It also helps in predicting where players will come off the board during the first three rounds of the draft.

Here's the final version of our 2017 draft tiers, covering players with first-, second- and third-round grades (in parentheses next to each player's name). If you want to read our finalized reports for a player, click on the link tied to his name.

*Underclassmen are noted with an asterisk.





Tier 1
The elite class of the 2017 NFL draft. These players should be starters from Day 1 and project as perennial Pro Bowl players.

2017: 1 player | 2016: 0 players

1. Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M* (Grade: 95)

Garrett's production, tape and athletic upside put him on a different level compared to his peers. He's one of the elite pass-rushing prospects of the past decade and should be an easy choice for the Cleveland Browns with the No. 1 overall pick.




Tier 2
A notch below the elite class but still worthy of top-20 picks in most drafts. These picks are expected to be plug-and-play starters.
2017: 10 players | 2016: 8 players


2. Jamal Adams, S, LSU* (94)
3. Solomon Thomas, DT, Stanford* (94)
4. Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU* (93)
5. Jonathan Allen, DT, Alabama (93)
6. Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State* (92)
7. O.J. Howard, TE, Alabama (92)
8. Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State* (92)
9. Reuben Foster, ILB, Alabama (92)
10. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford* (92)
11. Haason Reddikk, ILB, Temple (92)
Adams is a special player. He has the toughness to play near the line of scrimmage and the athleticism to cover wide receivers and tight ends in space. He's a more complete prospect than Hooker -- and he has a cleaner bill of health, with Hooker coming off multiple offseason surgeries. Howard is my highest-ranked tight end since I had Vernon Davis No. 6 overall in 2006. The Alabama product reminds me of Greg Olsen; they have very similar measurables, plus both bring value as big-play threats and blockers.




Tier 3
These players carry late first-round grades.

2017: 13 players | 2016: 14 players

12. Mike Williams, WR, Clemson* (91)
13. Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee* (91)
14. David Njoku, TE, Miami (Fla.)* (91)
15. Forrest Lamp, OG, Western Kentucky (90)
16. Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State* (90)
17. Charles Harris, OLB, Missouri* (90)
18. Gareon Conley, CB, Ohio State* (90)
19. Corey Davis, WR, Western Michigan (90)
20. Garett Bolles, OT, Utah* (90)
21. John Ross, WR, Washington* (90)
22. Cam Robinson, OT, Alabama* (90)
23. Evan Engram, TE, Mississippi (90)
24. Kevin King, CB, Washington (90)

In the previous 10 drafts, my highest-rated offensive lineman was ranked, on average, fourth overall. The 2017 class is especially weak in that regard, with Lamp at No. 15 being the best O-lineman on my board. McCaffrey's rare versatility -- he can run between the tackles, catch passes in the slot and contribute as a return specialist -- helped bump him up to Tier 2, while Cook stock has been affected by character/durability concerns.



Tier 4
Would rather not reach for these prospects late in the first round, but they're good value picks in the first half of Round 2.

2017: 22 players | 2016: 16 players

25. Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama* (89)
26. Takkarist McKinley, DE, UCLA (89)
27. Tyus Bowser, OLB, Houston (89)
28. Jarrad Davis, ILB, Florida (89)
29. Mitchell Trubisky, QB, North Carolina* (89)
30. Tre'Davious White, CB, LSU (89)
31. Adoree' Jackson, CB, Southern California* (89)
32. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson* (88)
33. Quincy Wilson, CB, Florida* (88)
34. Ryan Ramczyk, OT, Wisconsin* (88)
35. Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State* (88)
36. Taco Charlton, DE, Michigan (87)
37. Marcus Maye, S, Florida (87)
38. T.J. Watt, OLB, Wisconsin* (87)
39. Jourdan Lewis, CB, Michigan (87)
40. Zay Jones, WR, East Carolina (87)
41. Curtis Samuel, WR, Ohio State* (86)
42. Budda Baker, S, Washington* (86)
43. Josh Jones, S, NC State* (86)
44. Joe Mixon, RB, Oklahoma* (85)
45. Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut (85)
46. Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan* (85)

That's right: The top-rated QB on my board (Trubisky) does not carry a first-round grade. Both he and Watson have the tools and mental makeup to eventually grow into good NFL starters, but neither are ready to start from Day 1. This tier is where the depth of the defensive back group starts to show: Fifteen of my top 46 players are cornerbacks or safeties. Good DBs will be available deep into Day 2.
 

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Tier 5
These players are middle- or late-second-round prospects.

2017: 15 players | 2016: 20 players

47. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Texas Tech* (84)
48. Chidobe Awuzie, CB, Colorado (83)
49. Dion Dawkins, OG, Temple (83)
50. DeShone Kizer, QB, Notre Dame* (83)
51. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Southern California* (83)
52. Marcus Williams, S, Utah* (83)
53. Zach Cunningham, ILB, Vanderbilt* (82)
54. Alvin Kamara, RB, Tennessee* (82)
55. Caleb Brantley, DT, Florida* (81)
56. Jordan Willis, DE, Kansas State (81)
57. Ryan Anderson, OLB, Alabama (81)
58. Chris Wormley, DT, Michigan (80)
59. Dan Feeney, OG, Indiana (80)
60. Adam Shaheen, TE, Ashland* (80)
61. Tim Williams, OLB, Alabama (80)

It's looking like Mahomes will be a first-round pick, despite carrying a mid-second-round grade. That's quarterbacks for ya. Smith-Schuster is a bit of a forgotten man in this wide receiver class, but I love his competitiveness and he'd be a good fit in a West-coast system because of his ability to make plays after the catch. This is around the spot on the board where the second tier of TEs pop up. Shaheen leads that group, with the size/speed combination to cause matchup problems in the NFL.



Tier 6
These players are third-round prospects. They could develop into solid starters, but they either have limited upside or come with a higher element of risk than players worth drafting in the first two rounds.

2017: 47 players | 2016: 46 players

62. Taylor Moton, OT, Western Michigan (79)
63. Gerald Everett, TE, South Alabama (79)
64. DeMarcus Walker, DE, Florida State (79)
65. Teez Tabor, CB, Florida* (79)
66. Joshua Dobbs, QB, Tennessee (79)
67. Cooper Kupp, WR, Eastern Washington (79)
68. Larry Ogunjobi, DT, Charlotte (79)
69. Sidney Jones, CB, Washington* (78)
70. Duke Riley, ILB, LSU (78)
71. Antonio Garcia, OT, Troy (78)
72. Carlos Watkins, DT, Clemson (78)
73. Dorian Johnson, OG, Pittsburgh (78)
74. Jake Butt, TE, Michigan (78)
75. Nathan Peterman, QB, Pittsburgh (77)
76. Fabian Moreau, CB, UCLA (77)
77. Derek Rivers, OLB, Youngstown (77)
78. Samaje Perine, RB, Oklahoma* (77)
79. Dalvin Tomlinson, DT, Alabama (77)
80. Alex Anzalone, ILB, Florida* (77)
81. Justin Evans, S, Texas A&M (77)
82. Carlos Henderson, WR, Louisiana Tech* (77)
83. Jaleel Johnson, DT, Iowa (76)
84. Jordan Leggett, TE, Clemson (76)
85. Ethan Pocic, OC, LSU (76)
86. Desmond King, CB, Iowa (76)
87. Carl Lawson, DE, Auburn* (76)
88. Raekwon McMillan, ILB, Ohio State* (76)
89. Taywan Taylor, WR, Western Kentucky (75)
90. Kendell Beckwith, ILB, LSU (75)
91. Bucky Hodges, TE, Virginia Tech* (75)
92. Pat Elflein, OC, Ohio State (75)
93. D'Onta Foreman, RB, Texas* (75)
94. Montravius Adams, DT, Auburn (75)
95. Damontae Kazee, CB, San Diego State (75)
96. Ahkello Witherspoon, CB, Colorado (74)
97. Daeshon Hall, DE, Texas A&M (74)
98. Mack Hollins, WR, North Carolina (74)
99. Tanoh Kpassagnon, DE, Villanova (73)
100. ArDarius Stewart, WR, Alabama* (73)
101. Chris Godwin, WR, Penn State* (72)
102. Tarell Basham, DE, Ohio (72)
103. Josh Malone, WR, Tennessee* (71)
104. Rasul Douglas, CB, West Virginia (71)
105. Davis Webb, QB, Cal (70)
106. Malachi Dupre, WR, LSU* (70)
107. Cam Sutton, CB, Tennessee (70)
108. Zach Banner, OT, Southern California (70)

Tabor's stock took a nosedive after the combine, where he ran a 4.62 40. No matter how clean your technique is, you need speed to play cornerback at a high level in the NFL, and Tabor's time falls in the red-flag territory. Jones was my No. 12 overall player before he tore his Achilles at Washington's pro day. Some team will get a steal on Day 2 if his recovery goes as planned. I love watching Hollins' tape: He's a very good blocker and shows the toughness to make contested catches over the middle. The only reason he's this low on my board is because he's coming off a collarbone injury.
 
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