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[Skooby]

14. Minnesota Timberwolves

Likely picks:
No. 8

Total draft value: 2,200

Traded pick unlikely to be conveyed: Pelicans' second-rounder (protected 31-55, 0 percent chance to convey)

Minnesota is almost guaranteed to stay in the top 10 (99.5 percent chance) and has 11.8 percent odds of jumping into the top three.

Given that a lot of their core is around the age of a college senior, the Wolves could get away with drafting an older guy.





15. Dallas Mavericks

Likely picks:
No. 9 (top-18 protected or goes to Sixers)

Total draft value: 2,120

Dallas' first-round pick has a 7.2 percent chance of being top-three after the lottery draw, according to BPI. If it stays around No. 9, trading up or down in hopes of acquiring a shooting guard could make a lot of sense for the Mavs.







16. Indiana Pacers

Likely picks:
No. 17
No. 47 (protected 45-60 or goes to Brooklyn)

Total draft value: 1,860

The Pacers will lose their second-round pick to the Nets if they don't make the playoffs. BPI projects an 80.9 percent chance that they keep it.

In the three-team race for the last two East playoff spots, the Heat have one of the league's toughest strength of schedules remaining while the Pacers and Bulls have the two easiest. Although the Pacers have slowly dropped in performance lately, there's at least a potential Lance Stephenson vs. LeBron James rematch to look forward to now.

Regardless, the difference between the back of the lottery and just outside of it is pretty negligible in terms of overall value.







17. Detroit Pistons

Likely picks:
No. 12

Total draft value: 1,840

Back in mid-March, Detroit had a 63.2 percent chance to make the postseason, according to BPI. The Pistons are now officially eliminated from the playoffs.

While chemistry issues may have been exacerbated over the last month or so, their first-round pick is now projected to be No. 12. Maybe it's time to move on from Reggie Jackson and draft a point guard like Frank Ntilikina?





18. Milwaukee Bucks

Likely picks:
No. 18
No. 48

Total draft value: 1,800

A few weeks ago, the Bucks had a 54.7 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to BPI. They've officially clinched their spot in the postseason now, with a 66.8 percent chance to be the No. 6 seed.

The Bucks are in a good spot and won't have any glaring needs in the draft. With Giannis Antetokounmpo taking a leap, a young roster and another solid first-round pick coming up, Milwaukee is one of the better positioned Eastern Conference teams.





19. Miami Heat

Likely picks:
No. 14

Total draft value: 1,690

Regardless of whether Miami sneaks into the playoffs after an unbelievable run in the second half of the season (34.4 percent chance), their first-round pick should be in that 12-18 range (98.7 percent chance, per BPI).

Any prospect who ends up in Miami can expect a nice, little bump in value under Erik Spoelstra's watch.





20. Chicago Bulls

Likely picks:
No. 15

Total draft value: 1,630

Traded pick unlikely to be conveyed: Kings' first-rounder (top-10 protected, 0.3 percent chance to convey)

The dream of landing Sacramento's pick pretty much faded after the DeMarcus Cousins trade.

I don't expect much from Chicago in this year's draft and wouldn't be surprised if the Bulls deal their pick.







21. Oklahoma City Thunder

Likely picks:
No. 21

Total draft value: 1,340

The Thunder have clinched a spot in the playoffs and should pick in the 20-22 range.

A guy such as Terrance Ferguson or OG Anunoby would definitely help them on the perimeter.





22. Toronto Raptors

Likely picks:
No. 24

Total draft value: 1,210

Although Toronto might not exactly deserve championship-contender status anymore, the Raptors at least kept the cupboard filled with a pick in the early 20s.





23. San Antonio Spurs

Likely picks:
No. 29
No. 59

Total draft value: 1,120

Traded pick unlikely to be conveyed: Hawks' second-rounder (protected 31-55, 0 percent chance to convey)

The Spurs are Spursing. Unlike other championship contenders, they still have their original picks.

An undervalued guy -- maybe Caleb Swanigan or Luke Kennard -- would fit well at the end of the first round. Knowing the Spurs, whoever they take will turn into at least a nice rotation piece.





24. Houston Rockets

Likely picks:
No. 43 (via Nuggets)
No. 46 (via Blazers)

Total draft value: 760

Although a couple of mid-second-rounders isn't nothing, the odds are low that a rotation guy will be available.

Houston is in win-now mode, but I wouldn't be surprised if Daryl Morey has some more moves up his sleeve on draft night.





25. New Orleans Pelicans

Likely picks:
No. 40 (protected 31-55 or goes to Wolves)

Total draft value: 480

The Pelicans have a 5.1 percent chance of keeping their pick inside the top three.

With Jrue Holiday hitting free agency and not many keepers on the roster around Anthony Davis, New Orleans should see what it can get for DeMarcus Cousins around the draft. He has only one year left on his deal before hitting unrestricted free agency.





26. Washington Wizards

Likely picks:
No. 52

Total draft value: 240

You can safely say the Wizards are giving Brooklyn their lottery-protected first-round pick. A pick in the 50s isn't going to move the needle much and will likely be a draft-and-stash.



Teams unlikely to have any picks


Memphis Grizzlies: Memphis will get Miami's second-rounder if it falls between 31 and 40. With the Heat still pushing for a playoff spot, that looks unlikely.

LA Clippers: The Clippers would've kept their first-rounder if it fell in the lottery.

Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers: Both teams from the past two NBA Finals won't have a pick in the draft unless they trade for one.



Projected 2017 NBA draft order
Pick Team
No. 1 Boston Celtics (via Nets)
No. 2 Phoenix Suns
No. 3 Los Angeles Lakers
No. 4 Orlando Magic
No. 5 Philadelphia 76ers
No. 6 New York Knicks
No. 7 Sacramento Kings
No. 8 Minnesota Timberwolves
No. 9 Dallas Mavericks
No. 10 Sacramento Kings (via Pelicans)
No. 11 Charlotte Hornets
No. 12 Detroit Pistons
No. 13 Denver Nuggets
No. 14 Miami Heat
No. 15 Chicago Bulls
No. 16 Portland Trail Blazers
No. 17 Indiana Pacers
No. 18 Milwaukee Bucks
No. 19 Atlanta Hawks
No. 20 Portland Trail Blazers (via Grizzlies)
No. 21 Oklahoma City Thunder
No. 22 Brooklyn Nets (via Wizards)
No. 23 Utah Jazz
No. 24 Toronto Raptors
No. 25 Orlando Magic (via Clippers)
No. 26 Brooklyn Nets (via Celtics)
No. 27 Portland Trail Blazers (via Cavs)
No. 28 Los Angeles Lakers (via Rockets)
No. 29 San Antonio Spurs
No. 30 Utah Jazz (via Warriors)
No. 31 Atlanta Hawks (via Nets)
No. 32 Phoenix Suns
No. 33 Orlando Magic (via Lakers)
No. 34 Orlando Magic
No. 35 Sacramento Kings (via Sixers)
No. 36 Philadelphia 76ers (via Knicks)
No. 37 Sacramento Kings
No. 38 Boston Celtics (via Wolves)
No. 39 Philadelphia 76ers (via Mavs)
No. 40 New Orleans Pelicans
No. 41 Charlotte Hornets
No. 42 Utah Jazz (via Pistons)
No. 43 Houston Rockets (via Nuggets)
No. 44 Philadelphia 76ers (via Heat)
No. 45 New York Knicks (via Bulls)
No. 46 Houston Rockets (via Blazers)
No. 47 Indiana Pacers
No. 48 Milwaukee Bucks
No. 49 Philadelphia 76ers (via Hawks)
No. 50 Denver Nuggets (via Grizzlies)
No. 51 Denver Nuggets (via Thunder)
No. 52 Washington Wizards
No. 53 Utah Jazz
No. 54 Phoenix Suns (via Raptors)
No. 55 Boston Celtics (via Clippers)
No. 56 Brooklyn Nets (via Celtics)
No. 57 Boston Celtics (via Cavs)
No. 58 New York Knicks (via Rockets)
No. 59 San Antonio Spurs
No. 60 Atlanta Hawks (via Warriors)

 

[Skooby]

NBA Mock Draft 4.0: New top-10 picks, new lottery teams

Mock Draft 4.0: New top-10 picks, new lottery teams

It's time for our first mock draft after the college season!


We are assuming every eligible prospect who has yet to state his intentions declares his availability for the draft.

The selections are based on team needs and conversations with NBA scouts and general managers.

We're using ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) to project the order.





1. Boston Celtics (via Nets)*

Markelle Fultz
Washington
Freshman
Guard

The Celtics are flush with talent -- with intriguing young players or prospects at all five positions. With a high draft pick, they are likely to just take the best player available.

Based on conversations with NBA scouts, it looks like Markelle Fultz has a very slight edge on Lonzo Ball as the No. 1 choice for most teams. For the Celtics, Fultz's ability to play multiple positions has value given their stocked roster.

Odds of winning lottery (if Brooklyn finishes with the worst record): 25 percent (Boston owns the rights to swap picks with Brooklyn)

Projected record (Nets): 19-63



2. Phoenix Suns

Lonzo Ball
UCLA
Freshman
Guard

All indications are that Ball is dying to play for the Lakers, but right now the Suns have slightly better odds of getting the No. 2 pick in the draft. Would the Suns draft a point guard given that they already have several talented PGs on their roster? Absolutely.

Ball is a better playmaker than Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight and would be able to get the most out of the rest of the Suns' young talent. And landing Ball would allow the Suns to use Bledsoe, Knight or both to land another significant piece this summer.

Odds of winning lottery: 19.9 percent

Projected record: 23-59



3. L.A. Lakers*

Josh Jackson
Kansas
Freshman
Forward

The Lakers currently have a 51.3 percent chance of landing a top-three pick in the draft, according to BPI. If they don't land in the top three, the Sixers will get the pick.

Jackson certainly made his case for the No. 1 pick, especially over the last month of the season, so if the Lakers land here at third Jackson really isn't just a consolation prize. Jackson is the best two-way player in the draft and would bring an intensity, toughness and winning mentality that the Lakers desperately need.

Odds of winning lottery: 15.6 percent. (Sixers get the Lakers' pick if it falls outside the top three.)

Projected record: 23-59





4. Orlando Magic

Malik Monk
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

The Magic are a mess and could undertake a major front-office and roster overhaul this summer. That makes it a bit difficult to project the team's needs.

There would be several good options on the board for the Magic here. They could add another point guard to compete with Elfrid Payton or replace the dynamic scoring they lost last summer when they traded away Victor Oladipo. It's not an easy call, but Monk's 3-point shooting looks especially attractive.

Odds of winning lottery: 11.9 percent

Projected record: 29-53





5. Philadelphia 76ers

Dennis Smith
NC State
Freshman
Guard

I don't think anyone expected the Sixers to lose Ben Simmons for the full season and Joel Embiid for about half the season and still win 30 games -- but that's the pace they're on. Brett Brown might get as much from his players as any coach in the league.

The downside is that the Sixers' chances of landing in the top two -- and grabbing one of those elite point guards -- has diminished to about 17 percent. The good news is that there will still be several elite guard prospects on the board.

Scouts are split between Smith and De'Aaron Fox, but I don't think the Sixers would be. They need guards who can stretch the floor and Smith has proved to be a much better shooter as a freshman.

Odds of winning lottery: 8.8 percent

Projected record: 31-51





6. New York Knicks

Jayson Tatum
Duke
Freshman
Forward

The Knicks will take a close look at Smith and Fox, if available. But they might also need a Carmelo Anthony replacement plan, and that's what Jayson Tatum looks like.

Melo seems checked out of the Knicks and might agree to waive his no-trade clause this summer. If he does, the Knicks could get a small forward here that some scouts believe is the best prospect in the draft.

Odds of winning lottery: 6.3 percent

Projected record: 31-51





7. Sacramento Kings*

De'Aaron Fox
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

The Kings are still looking for a long-term solution at point guard, and Fox has a chance to be special. He's the fastest guard in the draft and plays with heart and toughness. He struggles as a shooter, but he does everything else very well.

The Kings will be tempted if Tatum is still on the board. They also need a small forward (with Rudy Gay on the way out), and Tatum's advanced game has some scouts ranking him as high as No. 1. It could come down to Tatum or Fox if the Kings land at No. 6.

Odds of winning lottery: 4.3 percent. (If the Kings move ahead of Philadelphia in the lottery and are in the top 10, they swap spots with the Sixers. If Sacramento's pick falls outside the top 10, it will go to Chicago.)

Projected record: 32-50





8. Minnesota Timberwolves

Lauri Markkanen
Arizona
Freshman
Forward

Markkanen plays like the prototypical NBA 4. He's an elite shooter who can stretch the floor, make plays and still do work in the paint.

His rebounding skills are a work in progress, but everything else about his game looks a little Dirk Nowitzki-like. He should be a great fit in Minnesota.

Odds of winning lottery: 2.8 percent

Projected record: 33-49





9. Dallas Mavericks*

Frank Ntilikina
France
Age: 18
Guard

The Mavs have one of the best international scouting staffs in the league and will be stoked if Ntilikina is still on the board. In a draft less loaded with point guards, he could be a top-five pick. He's skilled, tough and a good shooter.

He would have a great shot at being the Mavs' point guard of the future to run with young players like Harrison Barnes and Nerlens Noel.

Odds of winning lottery: 1.7 percent. (Philly will get this pick if it falls outside the top 18.)

Projected record: 34-48





10. Sacramento Kings (via Pelicans)*

Jonathan Isaac
FSU
Freshman
Forward

One of the reasons the Kings might go ahead and take Fox with their earlier pick is that players like Isaac and Miles Bridges will likely still be on the board with this pick (assuming the pick doesn't land in the top three and stay with New Orleans).

Isaac has more upside than Bridges. A long, athletic forward who can stretch the floor and block shots, he just needs to add a lot of strength.

Odds of winning lottery: 1.1 percent. (Sacramento will get New Orleans' pick if it falls outside the top three.)

Projected record (Pelicans): 35-47

 

[Skooby]

11. Detroit Pistons

Zach Collins
Gonzaga
Freshman
Center

Collins proved he's worthy of a lottery pick with a dominant 14-point, 13-rebound, six-block performance coming off the bench for the Zags in the Final Four versus South Carolina. He added another nine points, seven rebounds and three blocks in the title game vs. UNC, but played limited minutes because of foul trouble.

And scouts look beyond the stat sheet -- though the advanced analytics are very bullish on him -- at what he did almost every time he stepped onto the court. He played above the rim, was bouncy and energetic, stretched the floor and competed with toughness.

Plus, he's used to playing with a more traditional center. In Detroit, he could make a very interesting pairing next to Andre Drummond.



Odds of winning lottery: 0.8 percent

Projected record: 37-45





12. Charlotte Hornets

Miles Bridges
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward

Bridges might be the most underrated of the elite prospects. He did it all for Michigan State -- scoring, shooting, rebounding, shot blocking, defense.

He can be a bit wild on the court, but he has all of the tools to be effective at both the 3 and the 4. And his exciting style of play should be popular with fans.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.7 percent

Projected record: 38-44





13. Denver Nuggets

Harry Giles
Duke
Freshman
Forward

The Nuggets have done as good a job as any team in finding gems in the draft. Giles could be another.

Based on sheer talent, he's one of the three best players in the draft. His slow recovery from an ACL tear in high school -- as well as another knee surgery last fall -- hampered his play for Duke. But if he checks out medically, Giles has a chance to be a monster player in a few years and would be a terrific fit on the front line next to Nikola Jokic.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.6 percent

Projected record: 39-43





14. Miami Heat

TJ Leaf
UCLA
Freshman
Forward

The Heat already have an elite shot-blocker in the middle, so drafting a skilled 4 like Leaf seems like a sound option -- especially after seeing how Luke Babbitt fits with the team.

Leaf draws Babbitt comparisons because of his inside-outside skill set, but he's tougher and a better athlete. He would be a long-term upgrade for Miami.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.5 percent

Projected record: 39-43





15. Indiana Pacers

OG Anunoby
Indiana
Sophomore
Forward

Anunoby is recovering from knee surgery and might not even be able to play as a rookie. But his talent level as a two-way player is off the charts and the Pacers could really use a player like him over the long term.

Who knows, he may even be Paul George's replacement if George -- a free agent in 2018 -- departs then or Indiana is forced to trade him.

Projected record: 40-42





16. Atlanta Hawks

Terrance Ferguson
Australia
Age: 19
Guard

Ferguson is one of the few elite shooters in this draft.

His numbers didn't always show that in Australia, but given the dearth of guys who can let it fly -- and the Hawks' needs in this area with Kyle Korver gone -- he should be a strong fit in time.

Projected record: 41-41





17. Chicago Bulls

Jarrett Allen
Texas
Freshman
Center

The Bulls have been a mess. There are strong rumblings there could be big changes to the front office and the roster. So trying to discern who would land here in the draft is a challenge.

Allen is a project, but an intriguing one. His defense is ahead of his offense right now, but he made major offensive strides at the end of the season.

He seems to be coming on at the right time and could be a nice backup to Robin Lopez for the next year or two while he adds strength and experience.

Projected record: 41-41





18. Portland Trail Blazers

Justin Patton
Creighton
Freshman
Center

Patton is a major work in progress, but there is a high ceiling if a team can be patient with him -- and the Blazers can.

They wouldn't need him to start. They could bring him along slowly. Over time, he should be a strong contributor.

Projected record: 41-41





19. Milwaukee Bucks

Edrice Adebayo
Kentucky
Freshman
Forward

"Bam" played much better over the last month of the college season. When he plays with toughness as a rebounder and finisher at the rim, he looks the part of a lottery pick.

The Bucks could use that toughness in the paint to balance all the skilled perimeter players they employ.

Projected record: 42-40





20. Portland Trail Blazers (via Grizzlies)

Isaiah Hartenstein
Germany
Age: 18
Forward

This is the Blazers' second first-round pick, so don't be shocked if they go international.

While Hartenstein might be the least ready of the 4s we've ranked, he has a high ceiling. There aren't many 7-footers with his combination of athleticism, elite skill level and motor. He can be a volatile player, but he should be worth a gamble at this stage of the draft.

Projected record (Grizzlies): 45-37. (Portland will get Memphis' first-round pick if it falls outside the top five.)

 

[Skooby]

21. Oklahoma City Thunder

Justin Jackson
UNC
Junior
Forward

Jackson has always had an elite midrange game, and his development as a 3-point shooter has increased his draft value this year.

He was terrific vs. Oregon in the Final Four, scoring 22 points and hitting four 3s. However, his play against Gonzaga was spotty. He ended with 16 points but shot 0-for-9 from 3-point range. For the tournament he shot just 10-for-39 from deep, which may raise some eyebrows among scouts.

He would be especially intriguing for the Thunder, a team still trying to figure out a long-term solution at the 3.

Projected record: 46-36





22. Brooklyn Nets (via Wizards)

Ivan Rabb
Cal
Sophomore
Forward

Rabb was considered a likely lottery pick at the end of last season. He improved as a sophomore, but not as much as scouts would've liked.

He's a good rebounder and he can score around the basket, though his emerging perimeter game has scouts questioning if playing in the paint will ever be a strength for him. Still, he's a good prospect at this point in the draft.

Projected record (Wizards): 49-33. (Brooklyn will get Washington's pick if it falls outside the lottery.)





23. Toronto Raptors (via Clippers)

Ike Anigbogu
UCLA
Freshman
Center

Raptors GM Masai Ujiri loves toughness and Anigbogu brings it. He's a terrific rebounder and shot-blocker.

Offensively he's very raw, but the Raptors would be able to have the patience to bring him along slowly.

Projected record (Clippers): 50-32. (Toronto will get the better pick between its own selection and the Clippers'.)





24. Orlando Magic (via Raptors)*

Rodions Kurucs
Latvia
Age: 19
Forward

This is the second pick for the Magic and it would make sense for them to use it on a player they can stash overseas.

Kurucs is a major work in progress. He averaged 9.5 PPG and shot 32 percent from 3 this season for FC Barcelona II. He's an athletic wing with range. In a few years, he could end up being a steal at this point in the draft.

Projected record (Raptors): 50-32. (Toronto has the rights to its own first-rounder as well as the Clippers'. The Raptors will keep the better of the two picks and send the worse one to Orlando.)





25. Utah Jazz

Moritz Wagner
Michigan
Sophomore
Forward

Wagner impressed a lot of NBA scouts down the stretch, especially in an NCAA tournament game against Louisville when he dropped 26 points.

He's a very skilled big man who can stretch the floor and play in the post, and he's just six months older than Markkanen, a prospect with similar skills. He's really good value at this point in the draft.

Projected record: 50-32





26. Brooklyn Nets (via Celtics)*

Andrew Jones
Texas
Freshman
Guard

There are a lot of scouts who feel like Jones is a major sleeper. He's an elite athlete who plays above the rim and has shown the ability to knock down the 3. He really came along in Big 12 play.

The Nets need to continue to swing for the fences with these late draft picks and hope they connect. Jones is a good bet down this low.

Projected record (Celtics): 53-29





27. Portland Trail Blazers (via Cavaliers)*

Kostja Mushidi
Belgium
Age: 18
Guard

This is the third first-rounder for the Blazers, and I wouldn't be surprised if they went international.

Mushidi is a raw prospect who needs to improve his shooting, but his athleticism and scoring talent make him an attractive option. He averaged 14.7 PPG for Germany in the FIBA Under-18 European Championships.

His 8-for-42 shooting from 3 is the big reason he isn't higher on our board.

Projected record (Cavaliers): 53-29. (Portland owns Cleveland's first-round pick.)





28. L.A. Lakers (via Rockets)*

Tony Bradley
UNC
Freshman
Center

Bradley played a small role for the Tar Heels, but his length, rebounding and advanced stats all point to a talent that just needs time.

The Lakers have been happy with their 2016 second-round pick, Ivica Zubac, and bringing in another young big would give them some nice depth.

Projected record (Rockets): 56-26. (The Lakers own the Rockets' first-round pick.)





29. San Antonio Spurs

John Collins
Wake Forest
Sophomore
Forward

Collins was one of the most efficient players in college basketball the past two years. He plays hard, scores in the paint and rebounds well.

He still needs to develop more of a face-up game, but the raw tools are there.

Projected record: 63-19





30. Utah Jazz (via Warriors)*

Luke Kennard
Duke
Sophomore
Guard

Elite shooting will always be a need, and Kennard has a claim to being the best shooter in the draft.

Projected record (Warriors): 68-14 (Utah owns Golden State's first-round pick.)

BPI projected records current as of April 3.

 

[Skooby]

Which minor league teams are packed with prospects?

Which minor league teams are packed with prospects?


Now that the minor league rosters have been set and their seasons are underway, this is a rundown of where you will initially have the best shot at seeing a few talent-packed organizations' top prospects. This doesn’t necessarily reflect all of the top-ranked farm systems, because some, such as the New York Yankees, distributed their top prospects more evenly across their four full-season affiliates and extended spring training.

Mississippi Braves (Atlanta Braves, Double-A affiliate)
Top 100 prospects: LHP Kolby Allard (No. 32 overall, No. 3 in the Braves’ system), LHP Max Fried (No. 50 overall, No. 5 in the system).
Others of note: RHP Mike Soroka (No. 10 in the system), RHP Patrick Weigel (No. 11), 2B Travis Demeritte (No. 22).

Law's 2017 Prospect Ranks

Jan. 18: Farm system rankings, 30-21
Jan. 19: System rankings, 20-11
Jan. 20: System rankings, 10-1

Jan. 23: Prospects Nos. 100-81
Jan. 24: Nos. 80-61
Jan. 25: Nos. 60-41
Jan. 26: Nos. 40-21
Jan. 27: Nos. 20-1
Jan. 27: Full index of Top 100
Jan. 28: Prospects who missed

Jan. 30: Top 10 prospects by team:
AL East and NL East
Jan. 31: Top 10 prospects by team:
AL Central and NL Central
Feb. 1: Top 10 prospects by team:
AL West and NL West
Feb. 2: Top prospects by position
Feb. 3: Sleepers
Feb. 15: Top impact prospects for 2017

» Law's 2017 rankings
» Law's 2016 rankings

The Braves have so many pitching prospects that they ended up jumping both Allard and Soroka up from low-A to Double-A this year to ensure that everyone who needs a rotation spot has one. You could argue that in their four full-season rotations they’ll have 20 legitimate major-league pitching prospects -- some of them relievers in the future, but all probable big-leaguers. Even the unranked pitchers on Mississippi’s staff have potential, guys such as Matt Withrow (Chris’ younger brother), Jesse Biddle (a former Phillies’ first-rounder, now back from Tommy John surgery) and Chad Sobotka (fresh off the docks in Baltimore). They’re light on bats -- Atlanta’s top hitting prospects are in Triple-A and high-A -- but this is the best collection of arms in the system and among the best anywhere in the minors.

Rome Braves (Braves, low-A)
Top 100 prospects: RHP Ian Anderson (No. 52 overall, No. 6 in the system).
Others of note: LHP Joey Wentz (No. 13 in the system), RHP Bryse Wilson (No. 24), SS Derian Cruz (No. 16), CF Cristian Pache (No. 15).

Three of the four high school arms Atlanta took in the first four rounds of last year’s draft are in Rome’s rotation, including Anderson (who went third overall) and Wentz, who got an over-slot deal at No. 40 that priced him like a top-20 pick. Wilson was their fourth-round selection but also got an over-slot deal, and when I saw him last month in Orlando I noted they’ve already cleaned up his delivery. Pache and Cruz signed in 2015 for a total of $3.4 million in bonuses, and neither will turn 19 until after this season ends. Both have huge upsides but may not be ready to hit at this level yet. Lake Elsinore Storm (San Diego Padres, high-A)
Top 100 prospects: RHP Anderson Espinoza (No. 21 overall, No. 1 in the Padres’ system), RHP Cal Quantrill (No. 23 overall, No. 2 in system).
Others of note: LHP Eric Lauer (No. 11 in the system), LHP Joey Lucchesi, SS Javier Guerra (No. 8), 1B Josh Naylor (No. 18).

The Padres’ system is utterly loaded with big, projectable, athletic kids, but many of them are still in camp in Peoria and will be in extended spring training, with some probably headed for the Dominican Summer League once that gets going. The Padres are even staying conservative with their two main Cuban free-agent signings, putting 20-year-old outfielder Jorge Ona at low-A Fort Wayne and keeping 19-year-old lefty Adrian Morejon back in Arizona.

Of the four Padres affiliates playing actual games, Lake Elsinore is their most interesting, with first-rounders Quantrill and Lauer in the rotation, joining Espinoza, acquired in the Drew Pomeranz trade from the Red Sox last summer. Lucchesi, a senior signing who looks like a solid relief prospect, should be their fourth starter, and Jacob Nix (the No. 6 prospect in the system) will probably come here after he recovers from his current groin injury. Guerra came over from Boston in the Craig Kimbrel trade and will repeat high-A after a medical issue wrecked his 2016 season, but all accounts from Padres’ camp this spring were that he’s ready to go.

Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (Los Angeles Dodgers, high-A)
Top 100 prospects: RHP Walker Buehler (No. 40 overall, No. 3 in the Dodgers’ system).
Others of note: RHP Mitch White (No. 9 in the system), CF Yusniel Diaz (No. 5), OF D.J. Peters (No. 14), Will Smith (No. 13), 2B Omar Estevez (No. 8), RHP Dennis Santana.

White was the lead in one of my posts from Arizona because the second-rounder showed up this spring with high first-round stuff, and probably would have been a top-10 pick last June if he’d looked like that in his last year for the Santa Clara University. He, Smith and Peters are all products of the Dodgers’ strong draft class from last June, although Vanderbilt product and supplemental first-round pick Jordan Sheffield is starting in low-A.

Diaz was a top 100 prospect going into last year, but his season was repeatedly interrupted by injuries and he logged only about a half-season’s worth of plate appearances with Rancho Cucamonga. He’ll at least start the year by repeating the level at the age of 20.

Notably absent from any Dodgers farm roster: No. 46 overall prospect Yadier Alvarez. He’s still in extended spring training after reporting to camp out of shape.

Bradenton Marauders (Pittsburgh Pirates, high-A)
Top 100 prospects: RHP Mitch Keller (No. 16 overall, No. 3 in the Pirates’ system), 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes (No. 74 overall, No. 6 in the system).
Others of note: SS Cole Tucker (No. 8 in the system), RHP Gage Hinsz (No. 10), 3B Will Craig (No. 11), LHP Taylor Hearn (No. 16).

Keller was the biggest breakout prospect in the minors last year, coming off an awful, injury-shortened 2015 to jump into the top 20 in all of baseball. He may not be long for this level if he continues to pitch as well as he did last year. Hayes played in only 67 games last season due to injury and will probably spend all or most of this year in high-A.

Tucker was the Pirates’ first-round pick in 2014 but his 2015 season was cut short by a shoulder injury, so he has yet to play more than 80 games in any calendar year and his future at shortstop will be determined largely by how well he throws while with Bradenton. This is a good assignment for Craig, the Pirates’ first-round pick last year. He put up huge numbers in a cozy ballpark at Wake Forest and needs the challenge of high-A pitching.

Charlotte Knights (Chicago White Sox, Triple-A)
Top 100 prospects: RHP Lucas Giolito (No. 13 overall, No. 2 in the White Sox's system), 2B Yoan Moncada (No. 17 overall, No. 3 in the system).
Others of note: RHP Reynaldo Lopez (No. 5 in the system), RHP Carson Fulmer (No. 9), RHP Zack Burdi (No. 10), RHP Tyler Danish.

Three of the six major prospects the White Sox acquired in the Chris Sale and Adam Eaton trades will start the year here. Giolito and Lopez, who both came from Washington, should join 2015 first-rounder Fulmer and 2013 second-rounder Danish in the rotation, although I think Giolito is the only certain long-term starter of that quartet. The White Sox appear to have restored Moncada to second base, although he struggled there while in Boston’s system and could end up at third or even in center field given his explosive speed.

The Sox’s top prospect, right-hander Michael Kopech, acquired in the Sale trade with Moncada, will start at Double-A Birmingham, while the third prospect in that deal, center fielder Luis Alexander Basabe, will join their 2016 first-round pick, catcher Zack Collins, in high-A Winston-Salem. Somewhat surprisingly, the Sox have assigned Alec Hansen and Dane Dunning -- two Division 1 pitching products taken on day one of last year’s draft -- to low-A rather than high-A.

Lehigh Valley IronPigs (Philadelphia Phillies, Triple-A)
Top 100 prospects: SS J.P. Crawford (No. 5 overall, No. 1 in the Phillies’ system), C Jorge Alfaro (No. 45 overall, No. 3 in the system).
Others of note: 1B Rhys Hoskins (No. 4 in the system), OF Dylan Cozens (No. 5), RHP Mark Appel (No. 7), OF Nick Williams (No. 12), RHP Ricardo Pinto (No. 20), RHP Nick Pivetta (No. 21).

The Phillies’ upper levels are flush with future big leaguers, although they’re largely guys with lower ceilings, while their low-A affiliate in Lakewood will have a lot of the system’s better ceiling guys, including last year’s first overall pick, Mickey Moniak.

For sheer quantity of names, however, Lehigh Valley is where it’s at, with five of the Phillies’ top 10 prospects, plus former top 100 guy Nick Williams, who will be repeating Triple-A after a dismal season there in 2016. This is a big year for Crawford, whose defense is major-league-ready but who needs to produce more at the plate to earn the Phillies’ shortstop job this summer. Cozens and Hoskins combined to hit 78 homers last year for Double-A Reading, but that team plays in a very homer-friendly ballpark. We’ll get a more accurate read on their game power this year in Triple-A.

 

[Skooby]

Best values and worst overpays in NFL free agency

Best values and worst overpays in NFL free agency

A month into NFL free agency, some deals are aging better than others. My favorite value signings and least favorite overpays -- all vetted by a salary-cap manager, an analytics director and an agent -- span 24 players from 19 teams. We start with the good ones.



The good

Terrelle Pryor Sr., WR, Washington Redskins
Contract: one year, $6 million

Pryor caught 77 passes for 1,007 yards and four touchdowns last season, his first as a starting wide receiver. Was he a one-year wonder? The market was not kind to talented receivers with question marks. That helped Washington secure Pryor without paying over-the-top money on a long-term contract.

Ted Ginn Jr., WR, New Orleans Saints
Contract: three years, $11 million

Brandin Cooks, the receiver New Orleans traded to New England, finished 2016 with a league-leading eight receptions on passes traveling 30-plus yards past the line of scrimmage. Ginn ranked tied for fifth with five such catches while with Carolina last season. He will be playing with a dynamic pure passer in Drew Brees for the first time in his career, which adds intrigue to this signing. Ginn has caught all but 22 of his regular-season and postseason receptions from Cam Newton (142), Chad Pennington (73), Alex Smith (31), Cleo Lemon (19) and John Beck (14).

Bradley McDougald, FS, Seattle Seahawks
Contract: one year, $1.8 million

McDougald is a starting free safety who overplayed his hand in free agency and had to settle for a cheap one-year deal. He gives Seattle needed insurance for Earl Thomas as the perennial Pro Bowler rehabs from a serious leg injury. McDougald started 16 games for Tampa Bay last season and picked off a pass in a victory over Seattle. He is 26 years old.

Lance Kendricks, TE, Green Bay Packers
Contract: two years, $4 million

Coach Mike McCarthy ranks tight end not far behind left tackle among positions of importance on the offensive side, noting that rule changes have opened the middle of the field. The Packers have not had the personnel to fully exploit those openings. That is partly why they used two or more tight ends only 112 times last season and 96 times in 2015, the two lowest figures in 11 seasons under McCarthy. Adding Kendricks to a group featuring Martellus Bennett and Richard Rodgers will expand the offensive menu for McCarthy.

Brian Hoyer, QB, San Francisco 49ers
Contract: two years, $12 million

The 49ers committed $2.9 million in fully guaranteed 2018 salary to lock in Hoyer for a second season with no opt-out ability for the player. Hoyer is the NFL's lowest-paid starting quarterback among those no longer on their rookie deals. He has a 16-15 career starting record with a 48.9 Total QBR in those games -- not great by any means, but just fine for the money. Getting backup Matt Barkley on a two-year, $4 million deal also was pretty good after Barkley outperformed expectations in Chicago last season.

John Simon, OLB, Indianapolis Colts
Contract: three years, $14 million

Indy gets a solid player who brings needed toughness to an under-talented Colts defense. Simon is not a dynamic edge rusher, but he does have 8.5 sacks in 27 games over the past two seasons. He is young (26), productive and reasonably priced.

Lorenzo Alexander, DE, Buffalo Bills
Contract: two years, $5.95 million

Alexander had 12.5 sacks last season, his second as a full-time starter. But he is 33 years old and had only nine sacks in 10 previous NFL seasons. Alexander also will be playing in a different scheme under a new coaching staff. That helped the Bills keep him at a reasonable price.

Tyson Alualu, DL, Pittsburgh Steelers
Contract: two years, $6 million

The Jaguars drafted Alualu to be a star. He failed to meet those expectations. The Steelers are signing Alualu for versatile depth. He should be up to the task. Pittsburgh could need Alualu for more than that after the previously durable Cameron Heyward missed nine games last season.

Coty Sensabaugh, CB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Contract: two years, $2.6 million

Sensabaugh could wind up playing somewhat extensively for the Steelers and even make some starts based on the depth chart in Pittsburgh. A signing bonus for $425,000 is the only guaranteed money in the deal. The Steelers locked in cost certainty for 2018 at no risk to them if Sensabaugh winds up outplaying the deal.

Stefen Wisniewski, C, Philadelphia Eagles
Contract: three years, $8.025 million

Wisniewski has starting experience at all three interior line spots and has played well enough to factor as a potential starter in 2017. Philly didn't have to overpay to keep him. Their bargain-basement deal for Chance Warmack was another under-the-radar move that could pay off as the Eagles try to stabilize their line.

Rex Burkhead, RB, New England Patriots
Contract: one year, $3.15 million

The Patriots landed a versatile young back who projects as an ideal system fit and should contribute on special teams. They got him at a fraction of the price Baltimore paid for the more accomplished but injury-prone Danny Woodhead, who has missed 27 games over the past three seasons. One agent without ties to any of the running backs in the market this offseason listed the Burkhead signing as the steal of free agency, suggesting the Patriots could get 400 yards rushing and 60 receptions from him in their offense.

Marshall Newhouse, G, Oakland Raiders
Contract: two years, $3.5 million

Newhouse has started 56 games for three teams in seven NFL seasons, including six for the Giants in 2016. He is no mainstay, but he can play multiple spots on the line and could serve as an extra tight end in heavy personnel groupings. A lot of bad money was spent for offensive linemen this offseason. This was a modest deal that made sense for Oakland.

 

[Skooby]

The Bad

Luke Joeckel, OL, Seattle Seahawks
Contract: one year, $8 million

This deal seems dubious on multiple fronts. Joeckel is coming off October surgery to repair his ACL, MCL and lateral meniscus. He was not an above-average player before the injury. That makes his $8 million salary seem steep. If Joeckel does suddenly realize his potential, Seattle enjoys no protection on the back end because the deal spans only one season.

Malcolm Smith, LB, San Francisco 49ers
Contract: five years, $26.5 million

There typically are no bidding wars for 4-3 outside linebackers who are solid but not spectacular. You'd never know it from looking at the 49ers' deal with Smith. The signing reunites the former Seahawks and Raiders linebacker with new 49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh, who was with Smith in Seattle from 2011-13. The cost was exorbitant.

Matt Kalil, LT, Carolina Panthers
Contract: five years, $55.5 million

Minnesota let Kalil leave even though the Vikings were about as desperate for tackle help as a team could be. Kalil missed 14 games due to injury last season and has not played well recently, but with the college ranks offering few palatable alternatives at tackle, Carolina entered into a deal that seems highly speculative. Kalil will cost $13.6 million in cash this season and $11.9 million in 2018. The team would incur $9.6 million in dead money against its cap if it released Kalil after one season.

Russell Okung, LT, Los Angeles Chargers
Contract: four years, $53 million

Denver and Seattle were unwilling to pay Okung at a high level over the past two offseasons even though both teams needed a left tackle badly. The Chargers stepped up with a deal that carries $13 million in fully guaranteed salary in 2018, the second year of the deal. That was the market this offseason, but it doesn't mean these tackle deals feel like good ones. Okung has been hurt or relatively average more than he has been outstanding. He did start 16 games last season for the first time in his seven NFL seasons.

Kenny Britt, WR, Cleveland Browns
Contract: four years, $32.5 million

The Browns selected five wide receivers in the 2016 draft and then got a breakout season from Terrelle Pryor. They should be set at the position then, right? Nope. They lost Pryor to the Redskins in free agency and then signed Britt on the rebound. Did Cleveland offer this deal to Pryor and then give it to Britt instead? The money seems rich for a player who has been inconsistent, especially when the receiver market fell flat for some others, including Alshon Jeffery, who took a pay cut.

Jermaine Gresham, TE, Arizona Cardinals
Contract: four years, $28 million

The Bengals let Gresham walk in free agency two years ago when the tight end was coming off a two-season stretch with 108 receptions for 918 yards and nine touchdowns. Gresham's numbers are way down in two seasons with Arizona: 55 catches for 614 yards and three scores. Those are modest stats for a player now set to earn $16.5 million in guaranteed money, including $5.25 million fully guaranteed in 2018. Finding the resources to keep Gresham seemed odd for a team that couldn't find a way to retain homegrown safety Tony Jefferson.

Danny Woodhead, RB, Baltimore Ravens
Contract: three years, $8.8 million

Woodhead can be a difference-maker when he plays. Philip Rivers had 27 touchdowns with nine picks over the past three seasons when Woodhead was on the field, much better than his 66-43 TD-INT ratio without the versatile back. But Woodhead is 32 years old and has missed 27 of his past 48 games. How badly does Baltimore need another injury-prone player?

Riley Reiff, LT, Minnesota Vikings
Contract: five years, $58.75 million

The Vikings weren't the only team willing to pay a premium price for a tackle who figures to be average at best. That doesn't make this a great deal for Minnesota. Reiff played right tackle most recently in Detroit. He's getting paid like a good left tackle. Will the Vikings be appreciably better along their offensive line after paying so much for Reiff and Mike Remmers?

Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams
Contract: five years, $32.5 million

Woods caught 12 touchdown passes -- not last season, but in 57 career games for Buffalo. He's getting $15 million guaranteed from the Rams, who already spent big for Tavon Austin. The money says the Rams should be fairly well-stocked at receiver this season. But that does not appear to be the case.

Andre Branch, DE, Miami Dolphins
Contract: three years, $24 million

Branch was a good value for the Dolphins last season while earning $2.75 million on a one-year deal. His new contract includes $17.1 million in guaranteed money, including $7.9 million in fully guaranteed base salary for 2018. The Dolphins guaranteed 71.3 percent of the deal, the highest figure for any 4-3 defensive end this offseason. That's a strong commitment heading into a draft that seems to be rich in defensive talent.

Ryan Mallett, QB, Baltimore Ravens
Contract: one year, $2 million

Mallett has completed 55 percent of his NFL passes while averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. His teams have exceeded 20 points twice in his eight starts (3-5 record). Like Mark Sanchez, he is making more than EJ Manuel, Kellen Clemens and Geno Smith. Why?

Kyle Juszczyk, FB, San Francisco 49ers
Contract: four years, $21 million

This was one of the more astounding deals in free agency. The 49ers justified the contract by calling Juszczyk an offensive weapon instead of a fullback. They have a point. Juszczyk aligned outside the backfield on 28.1 percent of snaps during four seasons with Baltimore. The $5.25 million annual price tag was steep regardless.

 

[Skooby]

No. 4-ranked Jackson Carman puts Clemson on top

No. 4-ranked Jackson Carman puts Clemson on top

When No. 4-ranked 2018 prospect Jackson Carman tweeted that Clemson was his new leader, it was a surprise to most everyone but Carman. The Ohio prospect previously had Ohio State as his top school, and it very rarely happens that a top Ohio recruit gets away from Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes.

That doesn’t mean Ohio State is out of it, however, as Carman explained that a visit to Clemson is what pushed the Tigers up to the front.

“Just experiencing [Clemson's] whole environment, facilities, meeting with the coaches and players, it was better than any other place I’ve visited so far,” he said. “I would probably say it’s 1a and 1b with Clemson and Ohio State. Seeing everything was eye-opening and awesome.”


That visit made Carman realize that he should probably check out a few more schools to see if he gets the same feeling. That will likely include Florida State, USC, Wisconsin and LSU.

Knowing that the Buckeyes now have a battle on their hands for the 6-foot-6, 270-pound lineman, the staff told Carman they are up for the fight.

“[The Ohio State coaches] were just saying they were surprised, but at the same time they weren’t,” he said. “They weren’t hateful or anything. They just said, 'We’re just going to recruit you harder, and we’re going to show you what we have.' It was almost like they accepted a challenge.”

Carman is not your typical offensive lineman in that he is one of the more highly sought-after prospects in the 2018 class, but he also has quite a few interests outside of football. In fact, Carman paused this interview to take some cookies out of the oven that he had been baking.

Cooking is just one of his passions, along with music. On his Clemson visit, Carman picked up a guitar in Dabo Swinney’s office, tuned it and strummed a song for Swinney. Carman is likely one of the only people to have outgrown the cello he played in elementary school and middle school. He also dabbles on the piano and drums.

While he is from Ohio, Carman spent a short time living in South Carolina before moving back up to Ohio before starting high school. He says he feels no obligation to choose the Buckeyes because of where he lives. He is going to find the best school that fits him and gives him the best opportunity. And while that could end up being Ohio State, he won’t pick it simply because of geography or pressure from fans.

“The reason I like Ohio State so much is who they are as a program, what they’ve done and how they produce players,” he said. “Just because I’m from Ohio doesn’t mean I’ll pick Ohio State. I’m going to take my visits, see who fits me the best, and then I’ll choose that school.”

 

[Da_Eggman]

Prospect rankings update: Who is the new No. 1?

 

[Skooby]

Prospect rankings update: Who is the new No. 1?

Editor's note: Ages below are as of July 1, 2017. 1. Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets
Age: 21 (11/20/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 170
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 42 | 2017 (Jan. ranking): 3

Rosario impressed the Mets enough in March that they promoted him to Triple-A Las Vegas despite his youth and the fact he played only 56 games in Double-A in his career. Vegas is a great hitters’ environment, and I expect him to put up huge numbers there that won’t tell us much either way about his development, but the promotion also implies to me the Mets want to see Rosario in the majors sooner rather than later.

2. Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees
Age: 20 (12/13/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175
Top level: Double-A | 2016: 15 | 2017: 4

Torres was similarly impressive in spring training, spurring talk he might fill in for the injured Didi Gregorius despite never playing a game above A-ball. But common sense prevailed, and he started the season with the Double-A Trenton Thunder. At 20, he’s already one of the youngest players at the level and could see the big leagues in September.

3. Cody Bellinger, 1B/OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 21 (7/13/95) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 210
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 92 | 2017: 5

Bellinger is already in Triple-A at age 21, and he’s ready defensively to play first base in the majors, although the Dodgers currently have Adrian Gonzalez playing that spot. Bellinger could fill in for a corner outfielder at some point, or if Gonzalez gets hurt, but I think his opportunity is going to come this summer.

4. J.P. Crawford, SS, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 22 (1/11/95) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 180
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 4 | 2017: 6

My ranking here hasn’t been swayed by his 2-for-19 start in Triple-A, but it would have been nice to see Crawford, a gifted shortstop who’s repeating that level at age 22, get off to a good start, because 2016 was a year of unfulfilled potential for him. To put it another way, I think he’d already be in the majors if he’d performed at Lehigh Valley last year.

5. Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Age: 21 (4/30/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 205
Top level: Double-A | 2016: NR | 2017: 7

Kopech still has the best upside of any starter in the high minors, with the potential for three plus pitches, a No. 1 starter’s build and a delivery that works, although his command and his secondary pitches aren’t major league-ready yet. He struck out 10 of 18 batters in his first outing for Double-A Birmingham on April 8.

6. Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals
Age: 20 (5/19/97) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 185
Top level: High-A | 2016: 49 | 2017: 8

Already in high-A at age 20, Robles stands out as the Nationals’ top prospect by a fair margin after all their offseason trades. He’s a center fielder with the potential to hit for power and do damage on the bases -- a centerpiece player who could see the majors late in 2018 if the Nats continue to move him aggressively.

7. Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
Age: 20 (10/24/96) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 195
Top level: Double-A | 2016: 7 | 2017: 11

Devers joins Torres among Double-A’s youngest everyday players. A giant third baseman, he is the one major prospect on the Portland SeaDogs’ roster and homered in his first game at that level.

8. Austin Meadows, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 22 (5/3/95) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 200
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 16 | 2017: 9

Meadows struggled in his 37 games in Triple-A last year and struck out in eight of his first 16 plate appearances this year. While he’s on the cusp of the majors by level, I don’t think we’ll see him in Pittsburgh until the end of this year at the earliest. He’s the heir apparent to Andrew McCutchen’s outfield spot, but his No. 1 priority this year is playing a full season, something he has done just once in his three full years in pro ball.

9. Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago Cubs
Age: 20 (11/27/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 205
Top level: High-A | 2016: NR | 2017: 12

Jimenez is currently out of action with a bruised shoulder, which he suffered in a major league spring training game about three weeks ago. He's likely to report to high-A Myrtle Beach when he has recovered.

10. Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 22 (6/29/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 205
Top level: High-A | 2016: NE | 2017: 15

Senzel started his first full year in pro ball in high-A Daytona, although given the track record of comparable players from recent drafts -- Kyle Schwarber, Michael Conforto, Andrew Benintendi -- he could be in the majors by the end of this season. That would mean a mid-year promotion to Double-A at the least, assuming he does to high-A pitching what those other prospects did in their first pro seasons.

11. Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Age: 22 (7/14/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 255
Top level: MLB | 2016: 3 | 2017: 13

Giolito had an up-and-down showing in spring training, working on restoring his old delivery and using his low-90s two-seamer more and his mid-90s four-seamer less. That transition might mean more time in Triple-A for Giolito, who had an uncharacteristic three HBP in his first outing for Charlotte.

 

[Skooby]

12. Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 21 (4/4/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 195
Top level: High-A | 2016: NR | 2017: 16

Last year’s biggest breakout prospect had a rough introduction to high-A over the weekend, giving up five runs in the third inning, more than he allowed in any start in the 2016 season. His stuff remains top-of-the-rotation caliber, however, and one bad seven-batter stretch doesn’t change his outlook.

13. Yoan Moncada, 2B, Chicago White Sox
Age: 22 (5/27/95) | B/T: B/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205
Top level: MLB | 2016: 17 | 2017: 17

The White Sox bumped Moncada up to Triple-A even though he came into the year with just 53 career games above A-ball (45 in Double-A, eight in the majors), and he’s doing what he usually does, making hard contact when he makes contact and striking out more than you’d like. He’s also playing second base full time again after dabbling at third in the Arizona Fall League, before Boston included him in the trade for Chris Sale.

14. Francisco Mejia, C, Cleveland Indians
Age: 21 (10/27/95) | B/T: B/R
Height: 5-10 | Weight: 175
Top level: Double-A | 2016: NR | 2017: 18

Mejia made his Double-A debut in early April and should end up in Triple-A at the very least. A call up to the majors will depend in part on whether Cleveland has 40-man space and wants to use him at all in the postseason. I’m not concerned about whether he’ll hit at higher levels, but he will probably need to show the front office a lot of progress on defense to get that recall.

15. Jason Groome, LHP, Boston Red Sox
Age: 18 (8/23/98) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 220
Top level: Low-A | 2016: NE | 2017: 20

The Red Sox’s first-round pick in 2016 boasted one of the best high school curveballs I’ve ever seen, and I expect him to miss plenty of bats in low-A, but he has to work on command and on developing a viable changeup before he can start to progress up the ladder. His debut for Greenville couldn’t have gone any worse: nine runs allowed in 1S innings, 14 batters faced, three walks and one strikeout, and he left the game with an injury to one of his lat muscles.

16. Blake Rutherford, OF, New York Yankees
Age: 20 (5/2/97) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 195
Top level: Low-A | 2016: NE | 2017: 22

Rutherford’s age was a concern for a number of clubs in last year’s draft -- he was unusually old for a high school position player -- but he’s now in low-A, a level appropriate for his age, and was 8 for his first 16 with three walks and four strikeouts. He could easily end the year in high-A if he continues to rake, as I think he will.

17. Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies
Age: 20 (8/9/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 180
Top level: High-A | 2016: 11 | 2017: 19

Rodgers is on the disabled list for high-A Lancaster with an undisclosed hand injury, which could be just about anything – a minor annoyance or a season-long issue. The Rockies are in a tough spot with Rodgers, who had a great year overall in 2016 but had the home/road splits typical of hitters playing in the offense-friendly environment of low-A Asheville. He won’t play in a neutral home park until he reaches Double-A.

18. Cal Quantrill, RHP, San Diego Padres
Age: 22 (2/10/95) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 165
Top level: High-A | 2016: NE | 2017: 23

The eighth pick in last year’s draft, despite missing his entire junior year after Tommy John surgery, Quantrill started 2017 in high-A and went a career-best five innings/19 batters faced in his debut. He’ll probably be on a low innings cap this year, with just 37 innings pitched last summer, but has shown stuff and control so far that might make him the best pitcher in the 2016 draft class.

19. Anderson Espinoza, RHP, San Diego Padres
Age: 19 (3/9/98) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 160
Top level: High-A | 2016: 38 | 2017: 21

Espinoza looked good in March but ended spring training with “forearm tightness” (dun, dun, dunnnnnn!) and began the year on the DL for high-A Lake Elsinore. He’s still just 19 years old, and even if he misses a decent portion of the season, he’s still on track to see the majors before he’s 22 -- unless he suffers a major injury.

20. Clint Frazier, OF, New York Yankees
Age: 22 (9/6/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 190
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 72 | 2017: 27

Frazier was sandbagged early in April by a fabricated controversy over uniform numbers, which unfortunately took the focus away from his bat, although I think that will end up doing all of the talking for him in the future. Frazier’s now in Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, playing both outfield corners, and I think he’s just an injury or trade away from becoming the Yanks’ everyday left fielder.

21. Ozhaino Albies, SS/2B, Atlanta Braves
Age: 20 (1/7/97) | B/T: B/R
Height: 5-9 | Weight: 160
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 20 | 2017: 26

Albies is a natural shortstop who has moved full time to second base to accommodate Dansby Swanson, his eventual double-play partner in Atlanta. He’ll be fine on defense, given enough reps at the position, and at age 20 he is the youngest regular in the Triple-A International League by more than a year.

22. Dominic Smith, 1B, New York Mets
Age: 22 (6/15/95) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 250
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 29 | 2017: 29

Smith has long had raw power that has only intermittently appeared in games. He's in Las Vegas now with Rosario, so look for some big offensive numbers thanks to the home park and perhaps a superficial power increase that won’t tell us whether Smith has taken that last step to becoming a high-OBP and high power bat. The best news on Smith is that he came into camp with the best conditioning he has shown since high school.

 

[Skooby]

23. Alex Verdugo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 21 (5/15/96) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 205
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 51 | 2017: 31

The youngest regular in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, Verdugo isn’t as advanced at the plate as teammate Cody Bellinger, who is the fourth-youngest regular in the PCL. But Verdugo isn’t that far off from being able to help the big club either, especially if the Dodgers have an outfield opening and decide they don’t want to have Bellinger play a less familiar position in his debut. My best guess is that both make their debuts this year, but not until the second half, maybe not September if the Dodgers’ regulars stay healthy.

24. Mickey Moniak, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 19 (5/13/98) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 185
Top level: Low-A | 2016: NE | 2017: 30

The No. 1 overall pick from last June got off to a great start for low-A Lakewood, a prospect-laden roster that features three 19-year-olds in its regular lineup. Given his youth and the Phils’ rebuilding state, I don’t think they’ll be too aggressive with Moniak this year unless he obliterates Sally League pitching, which is entirely possible.

25. Kolby Allard, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Age: 19 (8/13/97) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 180
Top level: Double-A | 2016: 43 | 2017: 32

Atlanta had so many pitching prospects, they didn’t know what to do, so they jumped Allard and Mike Soroka from low-A up to Double-A this year so that every potential starter in the system had a rotation spot. Allard’s breaking ball is good enough that I can easily justify the move. Double-A hitters will force him to work on other parts of his game, such as fastball command, rather than allowing him to get by on the curveball alone.

26. Kevin Newman, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Age: 23 (8/4/93) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 180
Top level: Double-A | 2016: 23 | 2017: 33

Newman returns to Double-A Altoona after a solid half-season there last year, so I’d expect a promotion to Triple-A around June if he continues to put the ball in play as he has so far in pro ball. The Pirates don’t have a true shortstop on the major league roster, so there’s a potential opportunity for Newman if he hits and perhaps shows a little more extra-base power this spring and summer.

27. Corey Ray, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 22 (9/22/94) | B/T: L/L
Height: 5-11 | Weight: 185
Top level: High-A | 2016: NE | 2017: 34

Ray tore the meniscus in his left knee last fall and is currently in extended spring training rehabbing from the surgery. He’s likely to head to the high-A Carolina Mudcats when he returns.

28. Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves
Age: 19 (12/18/97) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 180
Top level: High-A | 2016: NR | 2017: 36

Acuna made his debut in 2015 but still has just over 100 minor league games played because of a hand injury he suffered last year that limited him to 179 plate appearances. He showed so well in spring training this year that Atlanta bumped him up to the high-A Florida Fire Frogs in the Florida State League, even though he won’t turn 20 until December. Goal No. 1 has to be a full, healthy season, but I think he’s a good enough hitter right now that he’ll see Double-A before the season ends.

29. Leody Taveras, OF, Texas Rangers
Age: 18 (9/8/98) | B/T: B/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 170
Top level: Low-A | 2016: NR | 2017: 35

Younger than several top high school prospects in this year’s draft, Taveras spent all of last year in short-season ball between the AZL and the Northwest League but made it into a few big league spring training games. He is now playing center for the low-A Hickory Crawdads, where he had already tripled his career home run total by early April (from one before this year to … well, you can do the math). He’ll probably spend the whole year there, but he’s so advanced for his age that he’s probably going to make up his own timetable.

30. Francis Martes, RHP, Houston Astros
Age: 21 (11/24/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 225
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 40 | 2017: 37

Stop trying to trade Martes to Chicago for Jose Quintana, people. Maybe it’ll happen eventually, but I think the Astros are inclined to hang on to Martes, who’s already in Triple-A and will probably help their big league club in some capacity this year. The PCL is no joke for pitchers, of course, and it’ll force him to work on fastball command and getting his front side closed more consistently. He made his debut April 10 with five scoreless innings, walking three and striking out three.


31. Lewis Brinson, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 23 (5/8/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 195
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 32 | 2017: 38

Brinson was one of the main pieces in the Jonathan Lucroy deal, and when Milwaukee acquired him they promoted him right to Triple-A … which means Colorado Springs, elevation 6,035 feet, a place where breaking balls don’t. Thus, Brinson, who is extremely tooled up but has had issues with contact rate, might not get the challenge he needs. But I still love the upside here of a 30-homer bat in center, even if playing in a poor developmental park changes his timetable.

32. Walker Buehler, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 22 (7/28/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 175
Top level: High-A | 2016: NR | 2017: 40

With Yadier Alvarez showing up to Glendale out of shape and failing to make an Opening Day roster, that makes Buehler their clear No. 1 pitching prospect. I reported on Buehler’s live BP outing before he appeared in any minor league spring training games, where he was throwing 95-98 mph with the best raw stuff I’d ever seen from him. He’s coming back from 2015 Tommy John surgery and will probably see his innings capped, which is probably why his season debut April 10 was just three innings long. He struck out four and allowed just one baserunner.

33. Isan Diaz, 2B/SS, Milwaukee Brewers
Age: 21 (5/27/96) | B/T: L/R
Height: 5-10 | Weight: 185
Top level: High-A | 2016: NR | 2017: 41

Diaz has played his first three games for high-A Carolina at shortstop, a little bit of a surprise, because he played about one-third of his games last year at second base, and nobody thinks he’s going to stay at short in the long term. He can hit, though, and at 21, he might mash his way up to Double-A Biloxi this season.

34. Braxton Garrett, LHP, Miami Marlins
Age: 19 (8/5/97) | B/T: B/L
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 190
Top level: Rookie | 2016: NE | 2017: 42

The Marlins’ top prospect still hasn’t pitched in a professional game and will start out in extended spring training before an assignment, probably in May or early June, to a full-season club.

35. Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Age: 21 (9/2/95) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 180
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: NR | 2017: 43

Adames is just 21 and now in Triple-A, continuing a trend where he has been young for every level. He has always outplayed his age but hasn’t had a chance to dominate anywhere. With the Rays lacking a real shortstop in St. Petersburg, however, I would bet Adames has a low bar to clear to come up and take the major league job.

36. Jorge Alfaro, C, Philadelphia Phillies
Age: 24 (6/11/93) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 225
Top level: MLB | 2016: 82 | 2017: 45

Alfaro should end the year as the Phillies’ everyday catcher, although I believe the club would like to see him work more on his receiving and game-calling, and on drawing the occasional walk, before he gets the call. He’ll turn 24 in June, old enough that it’s reasonable for the team to set a high bar for his promotion.

37. Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres
Age: 18 (1/2/99) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 185
Top level: Low-A | 2016: NR | 2017: 47

Tatis, acquired in the James Shields trade last spring, had just 12 games out of the complex league coming into this season. He’s so advanced for his age that the Padres promoted him to Fort Wayne, where he’s the Midwest League’s third-youngest regular, and he has already homered. Given his youth, almost anything he does on offense this year is a bonus.

38. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
Age: 18 (3/16/99) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 200
Top level: Low-A | 2016: 40 | 2017: 48

Baby Vlad is the youngest regular in the Midwest League, and he hit the ground running with a homer, five walks and just one strikeout in his first four games. As with Tatis, anything he does this year is a positive, although he faces a larger question in the long term about his position and defensive value.

39. Alex Reyes, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals
Age: 22 (8/29/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 185
Top level: MLB | 2016: 8 | 2017: 10

I admit to not knowing quite what to do with prospects who’ve just had Tommy John surgery, because at this point we don’t really know how successful the surgery was. Reyes was a top-10 prospect before the injury, but his delivery raised concerns that I thought might lead to some sort of arm problem. And I worry that those will still be present even if his velocity returns completely when he’s back on the mound next spring or summer.

40. Jesse Winker, OF, Cincinnati Reds
Age: 23 (8/17/93) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 215
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 41 | 2017: 49

Winker is supposed to be completely recovered from the hand injury that hindered him last season, limiting him to an ISO in Triple-A of just .081, and he’d probably provide an immediate offensive upgrade over incumbent leftfielder Adam Duvall, whose .297 OBP last year ate up much of the value of those 33 homers, and a huge one over bench option Patrick Kivlehan.

 

[Skooby]

41. Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Age: 23 (1/18/94) | B/T: L/L
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 185
Top level: Double-A | 2016: 96 | 2017: 50

Fried joined Allard in Soroka in making a two-level jump from low-A to Double-A. At 23, he’s the right age for his new level, and his stuff has now fully returned after 2014 Tommy John surgery and some inconsistency in his first year back. He struggled in his 2017 debut and might end up spending the whole year in Mississippi if his command, which is often the last thing to come back after TJ, is wobbly all year.

42. Carson Kelly, C, St. Louis Cardinals
Age: 22 (7/14/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 220
Top level: MLB | 2016: NR | 2017: 51

Kelly will probably log some time in St. Louis this year as an intern under Yadier Molina, but for now he’s in Triple-A at age 22, just his fourth season as a catcher after converting from third base. While I’m sure the Cards are most interested in his defensive development, I’d like to see some of the raw power he has shown in the past start to appear in games; he has never had 30 extra-base hits in any pro season.

43. Ian Anderson, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Age: 19 (5/2/98) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 170
Top level: Low-A | 2016: NE | 2017: 52

The No. 3 overall pick last year struck out eight of 19 batters in his 2017 debut for low-A Rome, a prospect-laden rotation that includes sandwich-round pick Joey Wentz and fourth-rounder Bryse Wilson. All three are teenagers and will probably pitch for Rome all year or until they hit their innings limits, especially Anderson, who pitched the least of all three in his senior year of high school.

44. Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins
Age: 21 (10/24/95) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 160
Top level: Double-A | 2016: 98 | 2017: 53

Gordon continues his steady progress this year in Double-A Chattanooga at age 21, still a bit young for the level but also advanced enough at the plate that he could finish the year in Triple-A. I think he’ll have to wait until 2018 for his debut, though, because he’s not on the 40-man roster. Fun fact: Through April 11, Gordon had hit as many homers in 2017 as he did in all of 2015 in low-A (that’s one -- one home run.)

45. Anthony Alford, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
Age: 22 (7/20/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 215
Top level: Double-A | 2016: 52 | 2017: 55

I don’t read anything into early-season stats, I swear, but through four games for Double-A New Hampshire, Alford was hitting .750/.800/.750. That’s just hilarious. I think his season line will be somewhat below that, and maybe he could mix a double in there somewhere.

46. Ian Happ, 2B, Chicago Cubs
Age: 22 (8/12/94) | B/T: B/R
Height: 6-0 | Weight: 205
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 47 | 2017: 63

Happ impressed the team enough in spring training that the Cubs chose to bump him up to Triple-A after just 65 not-great games at Double-A last year, although I think he’s ready for it. He wasn’t that far behind Andrew Benintendi or Dansby Swanson coming out of college and would probably be in the majors quickly for just about any club but the Cubs. He got off to a fast start with three homers in his first four games for Iowa.

47. Tyler Beede, RHP, San Francisco Giants
Age: 24 (5/23/93) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 210
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: NR | 2017: 62

Beede’s stuff came all the way back last year. He ditched the sinker, and he started striking more guys out, so at this point he’s really just in refinement mode, working on fastball command and re-establishing his changeup. The Giants’ current fifth starter is Matt Cain, who has a 5.77 ERA since the start of 2015 in 154 innings, and whose fastball averaged under 89 mph in his first start this year. Beede should be in that spot, maybe after just a few more starts for Triple-A Sacramento.

48. Franklin Barreto, SS, Oakland Athletics
Age: 21 (2/27/96) | B/T: R/R
Height: 5-10 | Weight: 190
Top level: Triple-A | 2016: 22 | 2017: 56

The A’s are hoping for a Barreto-efficient outcome somewhere in the middle infield for them, and he has already played both shortstop and second base for Triple-A Nashville. Acquired in the Josh Donaldson trade, which is looking a little better these days with Barreto on the cusp of the majors and Kendall Graveman suddenly gaining velocity at age 26, Barreto needs to show some defensive consistency at either spot and make better swing decisions at the plate before I’d recall him.

49. Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
Age: 20 (1/17/97) | B/T: L/R
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 190
Top level: High-A | 2016: 67 | 2017: 57

Tucker will play the entire year at age 20, and he started out at high-A Buies Creek, one of the new clubs in the Carolina League. I know many clubs differ on whether he or Martes is the Astros’ top prospect. I see more ceiling with Martes, but I also see a very high probability Tucker becomes a regular and can understand the other perspective.

50. Mitch White, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age: 22 (7/28/94) | B/T: R/R
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 207
Top level: High-A | 2016: NE | 2017: NR

Why not? He was the talk of Arizona this spring, and if he stays healthy, this 2016 second-rounder might shoot up the system, with two plus pitches right now and the size and delivery to be a No. 2 or better starter.

 

[Dr. Narcisse]

@Skooby
Kiper's 2017 'Grade: A' three-round mock draft

 

[Frump]

NBA Mock Draft 4.1: New top-10 picks, new lottery order