Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

[Skooby]

NFC WEST

Arizona Cardinals
Post-draft grade: B-

Based on production this new grade should probably be lower, but there's still a decent amount of potential here, and you could certainly make a case for several of the picks from a planning perspective. Remember, at the time the Cardinals were a good team trying to add talent at logical places. We just didn't see the Cardinals falling off so much in 2016, but a lot of that had to do with quarterback play, not these picks. As for the guys they got, there are question marks.

Robert Nkemdiche was a top-10 talent who dropped because of attitude concerns, and those popped up. Head coach Bruce Arians called him out at least once and used the word "maturity" in doing so. From a planning perspective, Nkemdiche made sense and could be a steal, because Calais Campbell was likely on his way out and now is in Jacksonville. Maybe Nkemdiche becomes a great player (he can be), given the starting role Campbell held for years. Brandon Williams was bound to struggle, given that he'd spent time at running back in college. But he has ability and can improve. We'll see about Evan Boehm, but he could start at right guard in 2017. This feels like an "incomplete" grade right now. Let's hope Nkemdiche comes hungry next season.

New grade: C+



Round/Pick Name Pos College
1/29 Robert Nkemdiche DT Ole Miss
3/92 Brandon Williams CB Texas A&M
4/128 Evan Boehm G Missouri
5/167 Marqui Christian S Midwestern State University
5/170 Cole Toner OT Harvard
6/205 Harlan Miller CB SE Louisiana

Los Angeles Rams
Post-draft grade: B-

I suspect a lot of people think I should hammer this draft class, given Jared Goff's first-year struggles, but there's a problem with that: We said all along that Goff would struggle early on based on the system he was coming from at Cal and the lack of help on this Rams roster, so should we be surprised? I wrote at the time, "I'm a fan of Goff ... [but] they'll need to be extremely patient and find ways to protect him." When Goff played, the Rams had no running game to take pressure off him and didn't pass protect well, and his receivers were a parade of dropped passes, including some that bounced off hands and chests and right to a defender for a pick. Does this look good so far? Of course not. Is it all because of Goff? No way.

After Goff, that's just about it. They like Tyler Higbee's potential, but he had just 11 catches. Same story with Pharoh Cooper, who had 14. It's all about Goff at this point. I just hope he gets a real shot -- and some help.

New grade: C



Round/Pick Name Pos College
1/1 Jared Goff QB California
4/110 Tyler Higbee TE Western Kentucky
4/117 Pharoh Cooper WR South Carolina
6/177 Temarrick Hemingway TE South Carolina State
6/190 Josh Forrest ILB Kentucky
6/206 Michael Thomas WR Southern Mississippi

San Francisco 49ers
Post-draft grade: C

A lot has changed since then-GM Trent Baalke and then-coach Chip Kelly were running point. If the re-grade seems harsh, just remember how bad this team was in 2016. You expect rookies to make contributions to a team this bad, but then the return was pretty lean. So far DeForest Buckner looks like a pretty decent pro. He started 15 games and moved around a lot, and he picked up six sacks and 73 tackles. I didn't like the Joshua Garnett pick, because if you trade up for a guard I hope it's not a reach on value. Garnett started the final 11 games at right guard but struggled a great deal.

After that, there just isn't much. Will Redmond didn't play, and Ronald Blair had some flashes (three sacks) and will be pass-rush depth in 2017. There isn't much to speak of after that, aside from part-time work for Rashard Robinson. If Buckner becomes a really good player and Garnett gets better, this class looks a little better. But the returns were pretty light in 2016.

New grade: C-



Round/Pick Name Pos College
1/7 DeForest Buckner DE Oregon
1/28 Joshua Garnett G Stanford
3/68 Will Redmond CB Mississippi State
4/133 Rashard Robinson CB Louisiana State
5/142 Ronald Blair DT Appalachian State
5/145 John Theus OT Georgia
5/174 Fahn Cooper OT Ole Miss
6/207 Jeff Driskel QB Louisiana Tech
6/211 Kelvin Taylor RB Florida
6/213 Aaron Burbridge WR Michigan State
7/249 Prince Charles Iworah CB Western Kentucky

Seattle Seahawks
Post-draft grade: B+

I liked the players Seattle got for the most part, including one big steal, but the fact that some of them had to play such prominent roles was a problem. Germain Ifedi was a good pick, but as I said then, he was going to have to transition from tackle to guard, and that doesn't just happen with a snap of the fingers. I give the Seahawks credit for finding undrafted free agent George Fant, but when a guy not far removed from the basketball court is protecting Russell Wilson's blind side, that's not a good thing. Ifedi and Fant should get better, but they struggled last season.

But again, there's a lot to like. Jarran Reed was a steal on my board, and he got eight starts as part of the rotation on the defensive interior, and I like his potential to do more. C.J. Prosise looked good, but health questions are going to linger. Nick Vannett saw some time and could play a bigger role going forward. Alex Collins got a few carries, though it's now a full backfield. Undrafted free agent Trevone Boykin could be an effective backup. Overall, that's a good return for one of the five or six best teams in the league. You just hope the O-linemen develop.

New grade: B



Round/Pick Name Pos College
1/31 Germain Ifedi OT Texas A&M
2/49 Jarran Reed DT Alabama
3/90 C.J. Prosise RB Notre Dame
3/94 Nick Vannett TE Ohio State
3/97 Rees Odhiambo G Boise State
5/147 Quinton Jefferson DT Maryland
5/171 Alex Collins RB Arkansas
6/215 Joey Hunt C TCU
7/243 Kenny Lawler WR California
7/247 Zac Brooks RB Clemson

 

[GreatestLaker]

Ranking top 10 rookies/prospects from 2016 draft

@Skooby

 

[Skooby]

Ranking top 10 rookies/prospects from 2016 draft

@Skooby

Ranking the top 10 rookies and prospects from the 2016 draft


Joel Embiid and Dario Saric are two of the top rookies this season, but both were drafted three years ago.

What if we focus on the "true" rookies, drafted in 2016? Who comes out on top in those rankings?

Here are Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton's top 10, based on future potential:


Pelton: 1. Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers

It's been nearly 13 months since we've seen Simmons play in anything but a summer-league game, and we can add questions about the long-term health of his right foot to those about his outside shooting and defensive intensity. And yet nobody from this year's draft class has come close to matching Simmons' potential.

I don't think there's any question that he would go No. 1 if we were to redraft everyone. Simmons was atop my board last June and remains firmly entrenched there for the time being.

Ford: 1. Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers

I completely agree. While there was a real debate between NBA scouts between Simmons and Brandon Ingram going into the draft, Simmons was the clear choice to me. After watching the season play out, I still believe he's the best prospect in the class.

Assuming his foot heals correctly and he gets at least a passable jumper, he has all the skills to be a star. I don't think missing his rookie season will be a major setback.

Pelton: 2. Juan Hernangomez, Denver Nuggets

Well, here's where things go off the rails.

I was relatively high on Hernangomez a year ago -- he went fourth in my "grade A mock draft" -- and the limited action he has seen for the Nuggets has reinforced what I liked.

Hernangomez has made 44 percent of his 3s, and while that's obably not sustainable, he's a good enough shooter to make defenses respect him as a stretch 4. At the other end, Hernangomez has shown great versatility. He rebounds well enough to hold his own at power forward and has unexpectedly shown sufficient agility to defend wings when Denver has started him at small forward in supersized lineups.

There are surely other prospects from last year's draft with more upside (including one on his own team), but I think Hernangomez is the most certain to be a positive contributor for many years to come. And at 21, he's still a long way from his peak.

Ford: 2. Skal Labissiere, Sacramento Kings

About this time two years ago, Labissiere wowed NBA scouts with his play at the Nike Hoop Summit. Most teams walked away convinced he'd be the strongest contender to Simmons for the No. 1 pick, and he was ranked No. 2 on our first Big Board of the year.

A very rough freshman season at Kentucky torpedoed his draft stock and he slid to No. 14 on our final Big Board -- and all the way to the end of the first round in the actual draft. After he spent much of the first half of the season in the D-League with the Reno Big Horns, his inspired play for the Kings after the DeMarcus Cousins trade has me sold that the original assessment of Labissiere was correct.

He's a skilled forward who can rebound, protect the rim and shoots 3s. We haven't seen all of that in his rookie season, but I've seen enough to believe that his ceiling is higher than that of anyone else not named Simmons in this draft class. It may take him a few more seasons to get there, but since we are ranking on long-term potential, I think Labissiere would be my No. 2 pick.

Pelton: 3. Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets

I thought I was going off the board with the 15th pick going second in my redraft and you went all the way to No. 28 with Labisierre!

I agree he is back on track to becoming a good NBA player, but I'm not quite ready to put him ahead of his Kentucky teammate. Murray has rated around replacement level as a rookie, which is pretty impressive in the context of his age (20 in February) and the fact that he's shooting just 34 percent from 3-point range.

I expect him to dramatically improve that based on shooting 41 percent from 3 during his lone college season and 87 percent from the line in the NBA. Murray has shown the ability to hold his own as a point guard, and I like his potential fit with Nikola Jokic when he becomes a starter -- at least offensively.

Ford: 3. Jamal Murray, Denver Nuggets

Murray ended up No. 4 on my final Big Board, and I think he deserves to move up a spot based on what I've seen as well. I agree with the assertion that his 3-point shooting should improve with time. I thought he was the most impressive shooter I scouted last season.

My biggest question surrounds his ability defend the quicker, more athletic point guards in the league. But you are right: He and Jokic will make a potent combo.

Pelton: 4. Malcolm Brogdon, Milwaukee Bucks

In practice, I doubt Brogdon would go this high in a draft because his immediate value isn't as useful to a rebuilding team as the upside of the younger players (Brogdon is already 24) taken far before him last June.

Still, in a vacuum I think Brogdon is likely to outproduce them even at their peak. No, Brogdon probably won't keep shooting better from the NBA line (40 percent) than the shorter college line (his career high at Virginia was 39 percent). Still, he's settled in at point guard, where his size and strength make him a fine defender already.

No wonder ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) loves his contributions, rating Brogdon better than any other 2016 draft pick.

Ford: 4. Guerschon Yabusele, Boston Celtics

I'm going to go way out to left field for my next pick. While technically not an NBA rookie, Yabusele was the 16th pick in the draft. He played in China this season, averaging 20 points and nearly 10 rebounds per game.

Kevin, your translated stats for Yabusele had him averaging nearly 14 points and eight rebounds per 36 minutes as an NBA power forward. And in his debut for the Maine Red Claws last night, he had 17 points and nine boards in just 25 minutes. And that was his first game in a month after an ankle injury ended his season in China early.

The Celtics are very bullish on him. He's a strong, super-athletic big man who can stretch the floor and plays with both great energy and feel. He's a little undersized for his position, but the comparisons to Jae Crowder (or before the draft, Larry Johnson) seem apt.

I think I'd take his upside right now over that of Hernangomez or Brogdon.

Pelton: 5. Ante Zizic, Boston Celtics

Interesting choice. I'll follow suit by looking outside the NBA.

I'm going with the other first-rounder the Celtics stashed, No. 23 pick Zizic, who has split time between KK Cibona in his native Croatia and Darussafaka in Turkey. Between the two stops, Zizic has averaged 20.5 points and 10.0 rebounds per 36 minutes on 67 percent shooting. Just 20, Zizic could be part of Boston's rotation next season when he's scheduled to join the team.

In the longer term, he could follow in the footsteps of Nikola Jokic and Jusuf Nurkic as centers who have translated success in the Adriatic League to the NBA.

Ford: 5. Ante Zizic, Boston Celtics

I debated between Yabusele and Zizic and I know the Celtics are very high on both, as are NBA scouts for some other teams. His size, strength, toughness and skill set make Zizic a big man to watch for the Celtics' future.

If Jaylen Brown improves, the Celtics will have had a heck of a draft. And who would've thought Brown might be their third-best prospect from 2016?

KP, who are your second five?

Pelton:

6. Skal Labissiere, Sacramento Kings
7. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
8. Brandon Ingram, L.A. Lakers
9. Marquese Chriss, Phoenix Suns
10. Dragan Bender, Phoenix Suns

I'm skeptical Labissiere can sustain his midrange shooting -- he's at 62.5 percent on 2-pointers beyond 16 feet, per Basketball-Reference.com -- which will make it a challenge for him to score efficiently. Still, his size, age and skill make him an intriguing prospect.

As excited as Celtics fans are about Brown being a rotation player as a rookie, he still rates below replacement level by RPM and box plus-minus. He has cut out many of the poor shots that made him inefficient at Cal but still doesn't look as good statistically as by the eye test.

As poorly as Ingram has played as a rookie (and despite a recent surge, he still has the most wins below replacement player in the league), his youth and frame make him worth a risk by this point. Something similar is true of Bender, who has barely played as a rookie. Fellow Suns forward Chriss has gotten the lion's share of the playing time and has been productive, though his poor pattern recognition and decision making on defense figure to always limit his value.

Ford:

6. Brandon Ingram, L.A. Lakers
7. Jaylen Brown, Boston Celtics
8. Marquese Chriss, Phoenix Suns
9. Dragan Bender, Phoenix Suns
10. Malcolm Brogdon, Milwaukee Bucks

This group is obviously more about potential than production. While Hernangomez and Brogdon have both had better rookie seasons than the players on this list, but I suspect that some of the higher-rated prospects will improve dramatically as they gain strength and experience.

Ingram, especially, has nowhere to go but up after a very shaky rookie season. As he adds strength and improves his shooting, I see a skill set there that should thrive in the league. Brown and Chriss are guys who look better via the eye test than they do in the box score. Their athletic talent is carrying them right now, but both have emerging skills sets that could make them productive players.

And I'm not close to being ready to write off Bender. He was the youngest player in the draft, didn't get much playing time and still has terrific upside as a prospect.

While this draft has looked like a major disappointment so far, I still see a lot of hope that some solid players are going to come from it.

 

[Rakim Allah]

Ranking top sophs and best futures from 2015 NBA draft class

Thanks

 

[Skooby]

Ranking top sophs and best futures from 2015 NBA draft class

Thanks

Ranking top sophs and best futures from 2015 NBA draft class



As we did with the 2016 draft class/NBA rookies on Sunday, let's look at how the 2015 draft class -- the NBA's sophomore class -- is shaping up.

Here are Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton's top 10, based on future potential:




Ford: 1. Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves

On draft night, it was clear to a majority of NBA execs and to me that Towns had the most upside of any player in the 2015 draft. Two years into his career, the only surprise is how good he's gotten so quickly.

Most expected there to be a steeper learning curve, but Towns ends his sophomore season as arguably a top-10 player in the league.

His numbers since the All-Star break are awe-inspiring: 28 points and 13 rebounds per game while shooting nearly 60 percent from the field. Towns' defense is still a work in progress, but that seems to be the only weakness in his game.

Pelton: 1. Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves

First of all, apologies to sophomore star Nikola Jokic, who was drafted in 2014 but didn't enter the NBA until 2015.

With Jokic out of the picture, there's no doubt Towns is No. 1 in this group.

His 16.3 wins above replacement player (WARP) by my metric put him fifth in the entire NBA, although that overrates him a little because of his defense. But he stands behind only three of the leading MVP candidates (Russell Westbrook, James Harden and LeBron James) and Giannis Antetokounmpo by this measure. With more than a week to go, Towns already has the most WARP by a second-year player since James posted 23.4 in 2004-05.

Ford: 2. Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks

If Jokic were in this draft class, I think he'd be an easy call over Porzingis. But from the 2015 draft, Porzingis is the second-best prospect.

While his development hasn't been as rapid as Towns', Porzingis has shown enough growth for Knicks management to overhaul the team and build around him. And at age 21, he still has lots of room to grow as a player.

Pelton: 2. Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks

I did have to think about this one a little because of the way Myles Turner has come on in his second season, but Porzingis' superiority in ESPN's Real Plus-Minus (RPM) carries the day.

Turner actually rates better by RPM based on 2016-17 alone, but in the multiyear version of RPM that is a better predictor of future performance, Porzingis' plus-3.3 rating puts him 30th in the league.

I think that reflects the kind of weapon Porzingis can be if used correctly. He still must improve defensively to get to the point where the Knicks can feel comfortable using him at center on a regular basis, but they should take advantage of his improved 3-point range in regular pick-and-pops instead of trying to get him on the block in the triangle.

Ford: 3. Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers

Before his freshman season, many scouts thought Turner was a top-three prospect in his high school class. His up-and-down play at Texas -- combined with an awkward gait while running the floor -- scared teams away, but two years into his NBA career, it's clear that Turner was a terrific prospect who just needed a little NBA coaching to clean up his flaws.

Offensively, Turner is still figuring it out, and he continues to leave a lot to be desired as a rebounder, but defensively there's no question he's already an impact player for the Pacers. Like Porzingis, Turner has tremendous, untapped upside.

Pelton: 3. Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers

There's amazing young talent at center in the NBA right now, and the 2015 draft class is a big part of it.

We've seen Turner improve his range this season, making 38 3-pointers at a 34.5 percent clip after going 3-of-14 beyond the arc as a rookie, and he's been an effective rim protector. Turner's limited small-area quickness will always be troublesome for him defending the pick-and-roll game, but he's already a quality starting center at age 21, which is no small feat.

All right, we've agreed on the first three spots in the re-draft. Now I think things start to get more interesting. Who's next for you?

Ford: 4. Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns

I know Booker is ranked only 53rd in RPM among NBA shooting guards, so the advanced stats aren't on his side at this point. But it's hard for me to ignore what one of the youngest players in the draft class of 2015 is doing as a sophomore.

I'm not talking about just his 70-point outburst against the Boston Celtics recently. He's also averaged 24 points per game since the All-Star break. While his shooting percentages aren't those of an elite shooter, I think Booker has what it takes to get there.

Defense is another issue entirely. He's pretty awful. But looking over the rest of the class, I just don't see another player who I think can get to where Booker looks close to getting already.

Pelton: 4. D'Angelo Russell, L.A. Lakers

In the eyes of most of the basketball world, Booker is winning the battle of score-first, defense-poor guards taken in last year's lottery.

But as you suggest, the advanced stats solidly favor Russell. While Booker is a bit more efficient as a scorer and has a higher usage rate, Russell's assist rate is nearly double his. And while nobody will confuse Russell with Tony Allen, he at least supplies some steals and defensive rebounds.

I think the Lakers' starting to shift Russell off the ball will ultimately work in his favor by taking away the expectation that he needs to be a traditional, playmaking point guard. And as he develops the ability to shoot the pull-up 3 -- perhaps the most important skill for a point guard in the modern game -- I think it will compensate for his relatively poor athleticism and create more opportunities for Russell to put to use the court vision he flashed at Ohio State.

Ford: 5. D'Angelo Russell, L.A. Lakers

Russell was a surprise riser on the 2015 draft boards. Even two weeks before the draft, it seemed unlikely that he'd go as high as No. 2 to the Lakers.

But there was a sizzle to Russell's game that appealed to the Lakers. They wanted a star to start building around, and Russell played with that sort of swagger.

He hasn't played as well as the Lakers had hoped. But if we downsize expectations a bit, the Lakers should have a lot to feel encouraged by -- for all the reasons you mentioned.

And if they can land someone like Lonzo Ball in this year's draft, moving Russell off the ball could really set him free of the expectations he's carried with him since draft night.

Pelton: 5. Devin Booker, Phoenix Suns

As skeptical as I am that Booker will ever rate as well in terms of advanced stats as he does in points per game, I can't put him any lower than this. Booker has shown both a unique ability to create his own shot at a young age and occasional playmaking chops.

If he can add efficiency to the mix, he'll be a quality starter no matter how infrequently he grabs a rebound or comes up with a steal.

Let's go to the lightning round for the rest of the top 10. Who do you have, Chad?

Ford:

6. Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings
7. Frank Kaminsky, Charlotte Hornets
8. Richaun Holmes, Philadelphia 76ers
9. Justise Winslow, Miami Heat
10. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Brooklyn Nets

I've abandoned both Emmanuel Mudiay and Jahlil Okafor. Kevin, I know you're thrilled.

Cauley-Stein was a boom-or-bust prospect who looked, during his rookie season, more likely to be a bust. But since the Kings moved DeMarcus Cousins at the trade deadline, Cauley-Stein has started to play with a confidence that helps him fulfill his potential as a real defensive presence.

Kaminsky is another guy who seems to be figuring things out since the All-Star break, averaging 15.4 points per game and shooting nearly 39 percent from 3. His ability to shoot makes him a valuable prospect.

Who would've guessed that the best center the Sixers drafted in 2015 would be Richaun Holmes (the 37th pick), not Okafor (the third pick)? Since he moved into the starting lineup, Holmes has been averaging 14.5 points per game and seven rebounds per game in about 27 minutes per game.

Winslow has missed most of the season with a torn labrum but is expected to recover fully by the start of next season. His numbers didn't wow anyone in the 18 games he played before the injury, but Winslow's defensive talent and ability to be a small-ball 4 with playmaking skills (he averaged nearly four assists per game) make him an intriguing prospect.

Hollis-Jefferson can't shoot, but his defensive toughness and versatility make him a valuable building block for the Nets.

Pelton:

6. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Brooklyn Nets
7. Richaun Holmes, Philadelphia 76ers
8. Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings
9. Willy Hernangomez, New York Knicks
10. Larry Nance Jr., L.A. Lakers

We're agreed on three of the five spots. Winslow's inability to make progress as a shooter concerns me a little bit, but admittedly I might be sleeping on him because of his injury. Consider him, Kaminsky and Sam Dekker my toughest cuts.

My two additions are Hernangomez -- drafted in the 2015 second round, though he didn't come to the NBA until this season -- and Nance, a pair of players who supply energy and efficiency in the frontcourt. I'm not sure either will settle in as a starter in the NBA long term, but at worst they should be quality backups, making their floors much higher than that of the lottery picks who didn't make my top 10.

 

[Da_Eggman]

NBA Mock Draft 4.0: New top-10 picks, new lottery teams

 

[Da_Eggman]

Picking Defensive Player of the Year, All-Defense at every position

 

[Skooby]

NBA Mock Draft 4.0: New top-10 picks, new lottery teams

Mock Draft 4.0: New top-10 picks, new lottery teams



It's time for our first mock draft after the college season!


We are assuming every eligible prospect who has yet to state his intentions declares his availability for the draft.

The selections are based on team needs and conversations with NBA scouts and general managers.

We're using ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) to project the order.





1. Boston Celtics (via Nets)*

Markelle Fultz
Washington
Freshman
Guard

The Celtics are flush with talent -- with intriguing young players or prospects at all five positions. With a high draft pick, they are likely to just take the best player available.

Based on conversations with NBA scouts, it looks like Markelle Fultz has a very slight edge on Lonzo Ball as the No. 1 choice for most teams. For the Celtics, Fultz's ability to play multiple positions has value given their stocked roster.

Odds of winning lottery (if Brooklyn finishes with the worst record): 25 percent (Boston owns the rights to swap picks with Brooklyn)

Projected record (Nets): 19-63



2. Phoenix Suns

Lonzo Ball
UCLA
Freshman
Guard

All indications are that Ball is dying to play for the Lakers, but right now the Suns have slightly better odds of getting the No. 2 pick in the draft. Would the Suns draft a point guard given that they already have several talented PGs on their roster? Absolutely.

Ball is a better playmaker than Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight and would be able to get the most out of the rest of the Suns' young talent. And landing Ball would allow the Suns to use Bledsoe, Knight or both to land another significant piece this summer.

Odds of winning lottery: 19.9 percent

Projected record: 23-59



3. L.A. Lakers*

Josh Jackson
Kansas
Freshman
Forward

The Lakers currently have a 51.3 percent chance of landing a top-three pick in the draft, according to BPI. If they don't land in the top three, the Sixers will get the pick.

Jackson certainly made his case for the No. 1 pick, especially over the last month of the season, so if the Lakers land here at third Jackson really isn't just a consolation prize. Jackson is the best two-way player in the draft and would bring an intensity, toughness and winning mentality that the Lakers desperately need.

Odds of winning lottery: 15.6 percent. (Sixers get the Lakers' pick if it falls outside the top three.)

Projected record: 23-59





4. Orlando Magic

Malik Monk
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

The Magic are a mess and could undertake a major front-office and roster overhaul this summer. That makes it a bit difficult to project the team's needs.

There would be several good options on the board for the Magic here. They could add another point guard to compete with Elfrid Payton or replace the dynamic scoring they lost last summer when they traded away Victor Oladipo. It's not an easy call, but Monk's 3-point shooting looks especially attractive.

Odds of winning lottery: 11.9 percent

Projected record: 29-53





5. Philadelphia 76ers

Dennis Smith
NC State
Freshman
Guard

I don't think anyone expected the Sixers to lose Ben Simmons for the full season and Joel Embiid for about half the season and still win 30 games -- but that's the pace they're on. Brett Brown might get as much from his players as any coach in the league.

The downside is that the Sixers' chances of landing in the top two -- and grabbing one of those elite point guards -- has diminished to about 17 percent. The good news is that there will still be several elite guard prospects on the board.

Scouts are split between Smith and De'Aaron Fox, but I don't think the Sixers would be. They need guards who can stretch the floor and Smith has proved to be a much better shooter as a freshman.

Odds of winning lottery: 8.8 percent

Projected record: 31-51





6. New York Knicks

Jayson Tatum
Duke
Freshman
Forward

The Knicks will take a close look at Smith and Fox, if available. But they might also need a Carmelo Anthony replacement plan, and that's what Jayson Tatum looks like.

Melo seems checked out of the Knicks and might agree to waive his no-trade clause this summer. If he does, the Knicks could get a small forward here that some scouts believe is the best prospect in the draft.

Odds of winning lottery: 6.3 percent

Projected record: 31-51

 

[Skooby]

7. Sacramento Kings*

De'Aaron Fox
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

The Kings are still looking for a long-term solution at point guard, and Fox has a chance to be special. He's the fastest guard in the draft and plays with heart and toughness. He struggles as a shooter, but he does everything else very well.

The Kings will be tempted if Tatum is still on the board. They also need a small forward (with Rudy Gay on the way out), and Tatum's advanced game has some scouts ranking him as high as No. 1. It could come down to Tatum or Fox if the Kings land at No. 6.

Odds of winning lottery: 4.3 percent. (If the Kings move ahead of Philadelphia in the lottery and are in the top 10, they swap spots with the Sixers. If Sacramento's pick falls outside the top 10, it will go to Chicago.)

Projected record: 32-50





8. Minnesota Timberwolves

Lauri Markkanen
Arizona
Freshman
Forward

Markkanen plays like the prototypical NBA 4. He's an elite shooter who can stretch the floor, make plays and still do work in the paint.

His rebounding skills are a work in progress, but everything else about his game looks a little Dirk Nowitzki-like. He should be a great fit in Minnesota.

Odds of winning lottery: 2.8 percent

Projected record: 33-49





9. Dallas Mavericks*

Frank Ntilikina
France
Age: 18
Guard

The Mavs have one of the best international scouting staffs in the league and will be stoked if Ntilikina is still on the board. In a draft less loaded with point guards, he could be a top-five pick. He's skilled, tough and a good shooter.

He would have a great shot at being the Mavs' point guard of the future to run with young players like Harrison Barnes and Nerlens Noel.

Odds of winning lottery: 1.7 percent. (Philly will get this pick if it falls outside the top 18.)

Projected record: 34-48





10. Sacramento Kings (via Pelicans)*

Jonathan Isaac
FSU
Freshman
Forward

One of the reasons the Kings might go ahead and take Fox with their earlier pick is that players like Isaac and Miles Bridges will likely still be on the board with this pick (assuming the pick doesn't land in the top three and stay with New Orleans).

Isaac has more upside than Bridges. A long, athletic forward who can stretch the floor and block shots, he just needs to add a lot of strength.

Odds of winning lottery: 1.1 percent. (Sacramento will get New Orleans' pick if it falls outside the top three.)

Projected record (Pelicans): 35-47





11. Detroit Pistons

Zach Collins
Gonzaga
Freshman
Center

Collins proved he's worthy of a lottery pick with a dominant 14-point, 13-rebound, six-block performance coming off the bench for the Zags in the Final Four versus South Carolina. He added another nine points, seven rebounds and three blocks in the title game vs. UNC, but played limited minutes because of foul trouble.

And scouts look beyond the stat sheet -- though the advanced analytics are very bullish on him -- at what he did almost every time he stepped onto the court. He played above the rim, was bouncy and energetic, stretched the floor and competed with toughness.

Plus, he's used to playing with a more traditional center. In Detroit, he could make a very interesting pairing next to Andre Drummond.



Odds of winning lottery: 0.8 percent

Projected record: 37-45





12. Charlotte Hornets

Miles Bridges
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward

Bridges might be the most underrated of the elite prospects. He did it all for Michigan State -- scoring, shooting, rebounding, shot blocking, defense.

He can be a bit wild on the court, but he has all of the tools to be effective at both the 3 and the 4. And his exciting style of play should be popular with fans.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.7 percent

Projected record: 38-44





13. Denver Nuggets

Harry Giles
Duke
Freshman
Forward

The Nuggets have done as good a job as any team in finding gems in the draft. Giles could be another.

Based on sheer talent, he's one of the three best players in the draft. His slow recovery from an ACL tear in high school -- as well as another knee surgery last fall -- hampered his play for Duke. But if he checks out medically, Giles has a chance to be a monster player in a few years and would be a terrific fit on the front line next to Nikola Jokic.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.6 percent

Projected record: 39-43





14. Miami Heat

TJ Leaf
UCLA
Freshman
Forward

The Heat already have an elite shot-blocker in the middle, so drafting a skilled 4 like Leaf seems like a sound option -- especially after seeing how Luke Babbitt fits with the team.

Leaf draws Babbitt comparisons because of his inside-outside skill set, but he's tougher and a better athlete. He would be a long-term upgrade for Miami.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.5 percent

Projected record: 39-43





15. Indiana Pacers

OG Anunoby
Indiana
Sophomore
Forward

Anunoby is recovering from knee surgery and might not even be able to play as a rookie. But his talent level as a two-way player is off the charts and the Pacers could really use a player like him over the long term.

Who knows, he may even be Paul George's replacement if George -- a free agent in 2018 -- departs then or Indiana is forced to trade him.

Projected record: 40-42

 

[Skooby]

16. Atlanta Hawks

Terrance Ferguson
Australia
Age: 19
Guard

Ferguson is one of the few elite shooters in this draft.

His numbers didn't always show that in Australia, but given the dearth of guys who can let it fly -- and the Hawks' needs in this area with Kyle Korver gone -- he should be a strong fit in time.

Projected record: 41-41





17. Chicago Bulls

Jarrett Allen
Texas
Freshman
Center

The Bulls have been a mess. There are strong rumblings there could be big changes to the front office and the roster. So trying to discern who would land here in the draft is a challenge.

Allen is a project, but an intriguing one. His defense is ahead of his offense right now, but he made major offensive strides at the end of the season.

He seems to be coming on at the right time and could be a nice backup to Robin Lopez for the next year or two while he adds strength and experience.

Projected record: 41-41





18. Portland Trail Blazers

Justin Patton
Creighton
Freshman
Center

Patton is a major work in progress, but there is a high ceiling if a team can be patient with him -- and the Blazers can.

They wouldn't need him to start. They could bring him along slowly. Over time, he should be a strong contributor.

Projected record: 41-41





19. Milwaukee Bucks

Edrice Adebayo
Kentucky
Freshman
Forward

"Bam" played much better over the last month of the college season. When he plays with toughness as a rebounder and finisher at the rim, he looks the part of a lottery pick.

The Bucks could use that toughness in the paint to balance all the skilled perimeter players they employ.

Projected record: 42-40





20. Portland Trail Blazers (via Grizzlies)

Isaiah Hartenstein
Germany
Age: 18
Forward

This is the Blazers' second first-round pick, so don't be shocked if they go international.

While Hartenstein might be the least ready of the 4s we've ranked, he has a high ceiling. There aren't many 7-footers with his combination of athleticism, elite skill level and motor. He can be a volatile player, but he should be worth a gamble at this stage of the draft.

Projected record (Grizzlies): 45-37. (Portland will get Memphis' first-round pick if it falls outside the top five.)





21. Oklahoma City Thunder

Justin Jackson
UNC
Junior
Forward

Jackson has always had an elite midrange game, and his development as a 3-point shooter has increased his draft value this year.

He was terrific vs. Oregon in the Final Four, scoring 22 points and hitting four 3s. However, his play against Gonzaga was spotty. He ended with 16 points but shot 0-for-9 from 3-point range. For the tournament he shot just 10-for-39 from deep, which may raise some eyebrows among scouts.

He would be especially intriguing for the Thunder, a team still trying to figure out a long-term solution at the 3.

Projected record: 46-36





22. Brooklyn Nets (via Wizards)

Ivan Rabb
Cal
Sophomore
Forward

Rabb was considered a likely lottery pick at the end of last season. He improved as a sophomore, but not as much as scouts would've liked.

He's a good rebounder and he can score around the basket, though his emerging perimeter game has scouts questioning if playing in the paint will ever be a strength for him. Still, he's a good prospect at this point in the draft.

Projected record (Wizards): 49-33. (Brooklyn will get Washington's pick if it falls outside the lottery.)





23. Toronto Raptors (via Clippers)

Ike Anigbogu
UCLA
Freshman
Center

Raptors GM Masai Ujiri loves toughness and Anigbogu brings it. He's a terrific rebounder and shot-blocker.

Offensively he's very raw, but the Raptors would be able to have the patience to bring him along slowly.

Projected record (Clippers): 50-32. (Toronto will get the better pick between its own selection and the Clippers'.)

 

[Skooby]

24. Orlando Magic (via Raptors)*

Rodions Kurucs
Latvia
Age: 19
Forward

This is the second pick for the Magic and it would make sense for them to use it on a player they can stash overseas.

Kurucs is a major work in progress. He averaged 9.5 PPG and shot 32 percent from 3 this season for FC Barcelona II. He's an athletic wing with range. In a few years, he could end up being a steal at this point in the draft.

Projected record (Raptors): 50-32. (Toronto has the rights to its own first-rounder as well as the Clippers'. The Raptors will keep the better of the two picks and send the worse one to Orlando.)





25. Utah Jazz

Moritz Wagner
Michigan
Sophomore
Forward

Wagner impressed a lot of NBA scouts down the stretch, especially in an NCAA tournament game against Louisville when he dropped 26 points.

He's a very skilled big man who can stretch the floor and play in the post, and he's just six months older than Markkanen, a prospect with similar skills. He's really good value at this point in the draft.

Projected record: 50-32





26. Brooklyn Nets (via Celtics)*

Andrew Jones
Texas
Freshman
Guard

There are a lot of scouts who feel like Jones is a major sleeper. He's an elite athlete who plays above the rim and has shown the ability to knock down the 3. He really came along in Big 12 play.

The Nets need to continue to swing for the fences with these late draft picks and hope they connect. Jones is a good bet down this low.

Projected record (Celtics): 53-29





27. Portland Trail Blazers (via Cavaliers)*

Kostja Mushidi
Belgium
Age: 18
Guard

This is the third first-rounder for the Blazers, and I wouldn't be surprised if they went international.

Mushidi is a raw prospect who needs to improve his shooting, but his athleticism and scoring talent make him an attractive option. He averaged 14.7 PPG for Germany in the FIBA Under-18 European Championships.

His 8-for-42 shooting from 3 is the big reason he isn't higher on our board.

Projected record (Cavaliers): 53-29. (Portland owns Cleveland's first-round pick.)





28. L.A. Lakers (via Rockets)*

Tony Bradley
UNC
Freshman
Center

Bradley played a small role for the Tar Heels, but his length, rebounding and advanced stats all point to a talent that just needs time.

The Lakers have been happy with their 2016 second-round pick, Ivica Zubac, and bringing in another young big would give them some nice depth.

Projected record (Rockets): 56-26. (The Lakers own the Rockets' first-round pick.)





29. San Antonio Spurs

John Collins
Wake Forest
Sophomore
Forward

Collins was one of the most efficient players in college basketball the past two years. He plays hard, scores in the paint and rebounds well.

He still needs to develop more of a face-up game, but the raw tools are there.

Projected record: 63-19





30. Utah Jazz (via Warriors)*

Luke Kennard
Duke
Sophomore
Guard

Elite shooting will always be a need, and Kennard has a claim to being the best shooter in the draft.

Projected record (Warriors): 68-14 (Utah owns Golden State's first-round pick.)

BPI projected records current as of April 3.

 

[Skooby]

Picking Defensive Player of the Year, All-Defense at every position

NBA All-Defense picks: Should Green or Gobert win DPOY?

All the attention on this season's MVP race has obscured an equally impressive battle on the ballot. Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green and Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert have both submitted seasons worthy of winning Defensive Player of the Year honors, and have done so with styles that highlight new and old ways to dominate defensively.

The 7-foot-1 Gobert, aka the Stifle Tower, aka the French Rejection, is the traditional force protecting the rim. According to SportVU tracking data on NBA.com/Stats, Gobert has defended the most shots inside 5 feet of any player (10.2 per game) while also allowing the lowest percentage of anyone who has faced at least 400 such shots.

Right behind Gobert in terms of opponent shooting at the rim? Green, who has faced fewer shots inside 5 feet (7.1 per game) because he's equally capable of chasing the NBA's new-wave stretch 4s around the perimeter.

Both Green's Warriors (second) and Gobert's Jazz (third) are among the NBA's top defensive teams on a per-possession basis. So who's the pick?

Using a combination of scouting and the limited defensive statistics that are available, I've made my selection for DPOY along with the rest of my All-Defensive teams, chosen by position.






Point guard


First team: Chris Paul, LA Clippers

Typically, defensive metrics such as ESPN's real plus-minus favor big men because they tend to have more defensive value, while perimeter players are better offensively. That makes it remarkable that Paul's plus-3.1 defensive RPM ranks 18th in the league, far and away the best for any full-time guard.

The Clippers have defended at an elite rate with Paul on the court, allowing 101.5 points per 100 possessions, which would rank third in the league.

Second team: Patrick Beverley, Houston Rockets

Beverley has proclaimed himself "the best defender in the league" this season, which is tough to justify given the superior defensive value of big men. But he certainly might be the best at his position, though I gave Paul the slight edge. Beverley is the league's premier irritant, making life miserable for opponents and hampering opponents' efficiency.

Honorable Mention: Jrue Holiday, New Orleans Pelicans; Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves; Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics

Holiday's shot blocking and size have been key components of an underrated Pelicans defense this season.

My first team choice last season, Rubio, slipped a bit defensively in 2016-17 but remains a top-tier thief.

And Smart is the NBA's second-greatest irritant -- after Beverley -- and capable of defending bigger opponents.





Shooting guard


First team: Andre Roberson, Oklahoma City Thunder

While Roberson slid to small forward after Kevin Durant's departure, he still takes the opposition's best wing scorer, and sometimes even point guards. A power forward in college, Roberson has become an exceptional one-on-one stopper who still uses his interior instincts as a shot blocker.

Second team: Danny Green, San Antonio Spurs

Overshadowed by playing alongside two-time Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard, Green is an outstanding defender in his own right who uses long arms to hamper the vision of smaller opponents. Like Roberson, Green is a fine shot blocker with a unique knack for stopping multiple players as the lone man back on a fast break.

Honorable Mention: Tony Allen, Memphis Grizzlies; Thabo Sefolosha, Atlanta Hawks; Klay Thompson, Golden State Warriors

The absence of Avery Bradley, widely considered the NBA's best one-on-one perimeter defender, will surely stand out. Bradley has played just 50 games this season, and the Celtics have defended just as well without him. With Bradley's lack of box-score production and plus/minus impact, I'm not sure his ability to frustrate opponents is translating at the team level on a consistent basis.

Allen, a fixture on the All-Defensive teams, has lost a half-step at 35. I might still pick him if I just needed one stop, though.

Allen and Sefolosha are the top thieves among shooting guards and Sefolosha's size makes him effective at both wing spots.

Like Bradley, Thompson leaves few traces of his defensive value in the box score. Unlike Bradley and the Celtics, Thompson's team consistently defends better with him on the court.




Small forward


First team: Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs

Leonard's defense hasn't been up to his DPOY standard over the full course of the 2016-17 season, but in crunch time there's nobody you'd rather have matched up with the league's top scorers. As ESPN's Tom Haberstroh recently explored, Leonard seems to be able to rip the ball away from opposing players at will.

And pay no mind to his middling defensive RPM, which is partially a product of opponent shooting that is largely out of Leonard's control.

Second team: Robert Covington, Philadelphia 76ers

Covington's early 3-point slump obscured how well he was playing defensively. Previously better against power forwards, Covington has worked to develop the footwork necessary to defend wings and even point guards.

No small forward better combines steals and blocked shots and Covington's defensive RPM is easily the best at the position.

Honorable Mention: Jimmy Butler, Chicago Bulls; Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte Hornets; Luc Mbah a Moute, LA Clippers

After taking a step back as he developed into a top scorer last season, Butler has truly been a two-way standout this season.

Kidd-Gilchrist's return has made the Hornets' starting five elite defensively. (Their bench, not so much.)

Mbah a Moute has proven the best complement for the Clippers' four longtime starters thanks in large part of his ability to defend multiple spots.

Small forward might be the league's deepest defensive position, so despite putting some 3s at shooting guard I'm left with no room for Trevor Ariza of the Rockets, Jae Crowder of the Celtics or Kevin Durant of the Warriors.





Power forward


First team and Defensive Player of the Year: Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors

For most of the season, I've been expecting to select Gobert for Defensive Player of the Year. But Green won me over with his defense after Kevin Durant was injured. Like everyone else, I expected the Warriors to miss Durant on defense. Instead, they have the league's lowest defensive rating since his injury. Over that span, Golden State has allowed 96.3 points per 100 possessions with Green on the court, 10.6 fewer than league average.

Second team: Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks

Millsap is something of Draymond Lite. Like Green, he offers the athleticism to defend small forwards playing down a position with the strength necessary to battle in the paint. Millsap isn't quite the same rim protector and doesn't force as many steals, but he's become an excellent defender.

Honorable Mention: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks; James Johnson, Miami Heat; PJ Tucker, Toronto Raptors

Antetokounmpo's length and athleticism have made him a rim-protecting presence; only Kristaps Porzingis blocks shots more frequently among players who primarily play forward.

Johnson's strength allows him to defend taller opponents, and he's got the ability to switch on guards after drastically transforming his body under the guidance of the Heat's athletic training staff.

Tucker is nominally a small forward but emerged as Phoenix's best option against high-scoring 4s and has continued to play that role at times since his trade to Toronto.





Center


First team: Rudy Gobert, Utah Jazz

Yes, everyone knows Gobert is a great rim protector. In the modern NBA, however, that's not enough to be a great defender. Roy Hibbert has actually held opponents to a similar percentage around the rim this season, but can't get off the bench for the Denver Nuggets (who have some of the NBA's worst rim protection) because of his other limitations.

So while Gobert might not be as versatile as Green defensively -- nobody is -- give him credit for being capable of playing the pick-and-roll multiple ways and contributing even when defending stretch 5s.

Second team: Dwight Howard, Atlanta Hawks

Surprisingly, the Hawks have remained a top-five defense with Millsap sidelined since mid-March. (Offense has been another story altogether.) Much of that credit has to go to Howard, who has been more mobile defensively after battling injuries in recent years.

While he's no longer close to the DPOY force he once was, Howard has played far more minutes than most of the league's other top defensive centers, giving him the nod for second-team honors.

Honorable Mention: Dewayne Dedmon, San Antonio Spurs; Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers; Amir Johnson, Boston Celtics

The Spurs' defense hasn't missed a beat without the retired Tim Duncan, and the infusion of athleticism Dedmon has provided in the paint has been a key.

Embiid was as dominant defensively during his limited playing time as anyone in the league, holding opponents to a lower percentage around the rim than Gobert. But it's tough to justify putting him on an All-Defensive team based on 786 minutes. (Rookie of the Year might be a different story.)

Johnson is one of the league's most underappreciated defenders, an old-school brawler in the paint who also has enough mobility to crossmatch with Al Horford at times against stretch 4s.

 

[Da_Eggman]

Updated rankings, projections for every NBA team's draft picks

 

[Da_Eggman]

NBA Mock Draft 4.0: New top-10 picks, new lottery teams

Which minor league teams are packed with prospects?

Best values and worst overpays in NFL free agency


No. 4-ranked Jackson Carman puts Clemson on top

 

[Skooby]

Updated rankings, projections for every NBA team's draft picks

Ranking, projecting every team's picks in the 2017 NBA draft



Editor's note (April 9): This piece has been updated with the most recent projections for the 2017 NBA draft order, reflecting new rankings and picks.

Which teams will have the best collection of draft picks this year? How will the full draft order shake out?

After using ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) -- factoring in all the trades and pick swaps -- as well as ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton's NBA draft trade value chart, here's the most likely draft order and how each team ranks, given their total haul.








1. Sacramento Kings

Likely picks:
No. 7 (top-10 protected, with swap rights)
No. 10 (via Pelicans, top-three protected)
No. 35 (via Sixers)
No. 37 (protected 31-55 or goes to Magic)

Total draft value: 5,460

Sacramento's pick has a 99.7 percent of staying in the top 10, per BPI, which would keep it from heading to the Chicago Bulls, though that also opens up the possibility for a pick swap with Philly inside the top 10. BPI gives the Pelicans 5.1 percent odds to land in the top three (keeping their pick), but luckily for the Kings, the New Orleans pick has a 94.1 percent chance of being top 10.

At worst, Sacramento should get a shot to draft one of the second-tier point guards after Markelle Fultz and Lonzo Ball are off the board. At best, the Kings could jump into the top three and have another top-10 pick from the Pelicans (let's hope, for their fans' sake, that they don't draft another shooting guard).





2. Orlando Magic

Likely picks:
No. 4
No. 25 (via worse of Clippers and Raptors)
No. 33 (via Lakers)
No. 34

Total draft value: 5,120

Traded pick unlikely to be conveyed: Kings' second-rounder (protected 31-55, 0 percent chance to convey)

This might be time for Orlando to look elsewhere at the point guard position and use a top-five pick to add whomever is left of Fultz, Ball and Dennis Smith.

The Magic will also get the Lakers' second-rounder (and a 2018 second) if L.A. keeps its top-3 protected first-rounder, though that means Orlando won't get L.A.'s 2019 unprotected first-rounder.





3. Boston Celtics

Likely picks:
No. 1 (via Nets)
No. 38 (via Wolves)
No. 55 (via Clippers)
No. 57 (via Cavs)

Total draft value: 4,860

It's merely a formality at this point that Boston will swap picks with Brooklyn. The question is where the pick will fall in the lottery. BPI gives the Celtics a 25 percent chance at No. 1 and a 64.3 percent chance at a top-three slot.

A pick in the 31-40 range has a chance to become a solid player, but I wouldn't be surprised if Danny Ainge packaged those three second-round picks into something better. With the Wolves falling as of late, their second-round pick that Boston receives has crept up into the high 30s. That gives the Celtics a chance to land a solid steal of a pick and adds to the value of Boston's' draft picks this year.





4. Philadelphia 76ers

Likely picks:
No. 5 (can swap top-10 picks with Kings)
No. 36 (via Knicks)
No. 39 (via Mavs)
No. 44 (via Heat, goes to Grizzlies if 31-40)
No. 49 (via Hawks)

Total draft value: 4,260

Traded pick unlikely to be conveyed: Mavericks' first-rounder (top-18 protected, 0 percent chance to convey)

Although the first-rounder from Dallas isn't happening, Philadelphia still has a 51.5 chance to snag the Lakers' pick. The pick swap with Sacramento is a nice security blanket, ensuring the Sixers' pick should be high in the lottery.

As always, expect them to make moves before, during and after the draft.





5. Phoenix Suns

Likely picks:
No. 2
No. 32 (protected 31-55 or goes to Hawks)
No. 54 (via Raptors)

Total draft value: 4,140

Given the saturation at the point guard spot and the likelihood that Phoenix's first-round pick will fall in the top five (99.3 percent chance, per BPI), expect the Suns to go after Josh Jackson or Jayson Tatum.

Their point guards might be a bit beyond the age of their young core, but Eric Bledsoe is in his prime and has two more years on his deal.





6. Portland Trail Blazers

Likely picks:
No. 16
No. 20 (via Grizzlies)
No. 27 (via Cavs)

Total draft value: 4,070

The Blazers are up to a 97.9 percent chance to make the playoffs, though their total draft value hasn't changed much with their slight rise in the standings. Ideally, Portland can at least scare Golden State for a game or two and head into the offseason with a nice collection of first-rounders.





7. Los Angeles Lakers

Likely picks:
No. 3 (top-three protected or goes to Sixers)
No. 28 (via Rockets)
No. 33 (goes to Magic if L.A. keeps first-rounder)

Total draft value: 3,930 (if L.A. keeps its first-rounder and loses its second-rounder)

Yes, the Lakers have a big reason to tank and secure a top-three pick. They also made a nice move at the deadline in grabbing Houston's first-rounder in exchange for Lou Williams, somebody who doesn't match the timeline of their young core (neither do Timofey Mozgov and Luol Deng, but oh well).







8. New York Knicks

Likely picks:
No. 6
No. 45 (via Bulls)
No. 58 (via Rockets)

Total draft value: 2,880

The Knicks need to add at least one rotation player from this draft. With a pick in the top 10 that has a 21.1 percent chance of going top five, they should have a good shot to do so.





9. Utah Jazz

Likely picks:
No. 23
No. 30 (via Warriors)
No. 42 (via Pistons)
No. 53

Total draft value: 2,850

What Gordon Hayward does in free agency dictates everything for Utah, but regardless, the Jazz will have roster spots to fill with Shelvin Mack and Jeff Withey likely not being re-signed.

Collectively, their picks add up to about a top-four pick by Pelton's trade chart.



10. Brooklyn Nets

Likely picks:
No. 22 (via Wizards, lottery protected)
No. 26 (via Celtics)
No. 56 (via Celtics, protected 31-45)

Total draft value: 2,600

Traded pick unlikely to be conveyed: Pacers' second-rounder (protected 45-60, 19.1 percent chance to convey)

Brooklyn has a decent set of picks, even after the swap with Boston. Between the Wizards and Celtics, the Nets should have two picks in the 20s.

If I were them, I would pull a Bill Belichick and try to turn those two low first-rounders into even more picks, potentially in the coveted 31-40 range.





11. Charlotte Hornets

Likely picks:
No. 11
No. 41 (protected 31-55 or goes to Cavs)

Total draft value: 2,390

Charlotte is out of the playoff hunt but has pretty slim odds of rising in the lottery (0.8 percent chance at the No. 1 pick and 2.8 percent at top three).





12. Denver Nuggets

Likely picks:
No. 13
No. 50 (via Grizzlies, protected 31-35)
No. 51 (via Thunder, protected 31-35)

Total draft value: 2,280

The Nuggets' playoff chances are down to 2.1 percent. Neither of those second-round picks will be too valuable, so that first-rounder will be super important.





13. Atlanta Hawks

Likely picks:
No. 19
No. 31 (via Nets)
No. 60 (via Warriors)

Total draft value: 2,260

Traded pick unlikely to be conveyed: Suns' second-rounder (protected 31-55, 0 percent chance to convey)

Atlanta picks up a covete