Thin at the top, deep throughout
By Todd McShay
How does this class compare to 2012?
Three of the six prospects in Tier 1 last year played offensive skill positions -- two quarterbacks (Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III) and one running back (Trent Richardson). I also had QB Ryan Tannehill and WRs Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd in Tiers 2 and 3, so six of 19 in the top three tiers were offensive skill players.
This year's group is quite a different story. There isn't a single offensive skill player who can be found in the top three tiers. In addition, Luck and Griffin had grades of 99 and 98, respectively. This year's top grade at this point is 97 (Luke Joeckel and Sharrif Floyd) and that's the ceiling.
This year's draft is getting little hype because of the void of first-round offensive playmakers. The reality is you don't want to be picking in the top five this year, particularly if you're in the market for a quarterback. But if you take Luck and Griffin out of the equation, there's not nearly the difference in talent level from 2012 to this year's class as most want to believe. In fact, from Tier 2 on, a case can be made in favor of 2013 having the superior talent.
Where this draft is particularly strong is along the offensive and defensive lines with four offensive tackles, two guards, five defensive tackles and three defensive ends in the top four tiers -- 14 of the top 25 rated prospects.
Day 2 is where the 2013 draft is especially strong with 82 prospects owning grades in Tiers 5-7 (compared with 66 in 2012). This is also where the offensive skill players and defensive backs should start flying off the board. Just take a look at Tiers 5, 6 and 7. They are dominated by cornerbacks (14), running backs (eight), wide receivers (eight), safeties (six) and tight ends (five).
That leaves us with the quarterbacks. This is the deepest and most jumbled group of Tier 5-7 quarterbacks that I've studied in a given year.
Keep in mind; the past three years we've seen an average of 3.3 quarterbacks selected in Round 1 compared with only 2.6 in Rounds 2 and 3 combined. We all know that quarterbacks get bumped up because of positional value, so it shouldn't surprise anyone if two or three wind up drafted in the first round.
But from a pure grade-value standpoint, there are seven quarterbacks that belong in Tiers 5-7 (Tyler Wilson, Ryan Nassib, Matt Barkley, Landry Jones, Tyler Bray, EJ Manuel, and Mike Glennon) -- and Geno Smith barely made the Tier 4 cut. And they come in all different flavors, so scheme and skill-set preference will play a big part in determining the order in which these guys are selected.
Teams in search of precision passers to fit variations of West Coast-style offenses probably will favor Wilson, Nassib and Barkley. Teams that feature more of a vertical passing attack will seek the stronger-arm prospects in Jones, Bray, Manuel and Glennon. And of the seven, Manuel is the only one with the size, mobility and experience to be considered a legitimate zone-read option threat in the NFL.
Here's my seven-tier breakdown of the top prospects, listed in order of draft grade. Non-seniors are noted with an asterisk.
Tier 1
These are the elite prospects, those who have the potential to come off the board in the top five overall picks.
OVR Player POS School HT WT Grade
1 Luke Joeckel* OT Texas A&M 6-6 306 97
2 Sharrif Floyd* DT Florida 6-2⅝ 297 97
3 Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan 6-7¼ 306 96
4 Star Lotulelei DT Utah 6-2½ 311 96
Tier 2
This tier is composed of players who are a notch below elite but are still top-10 quality.
OVR Player POS School HT WT Grade
5 Dee Milliner* CB Alabama 5-11⅞ 201 95
6 Ezekiel Ansah DE BYU 6-5¼ 271 95
7 Dion Jordan OLB Oregon 6-6¼ 248 95
8 Chance Warmack OG Alabama 6-2 317 95
Tier 3
The prospects will offer good value between picks 10 and 20.
OVR Player POS School HT WT Grade
9 Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma 6-6 303 94
10 Jonathan Cooper OG North Carolina 6-2⅛ 311 94
11 Barkevious Mingo* DE LSU 6-4¼ 241 94
12 Alec Ogletree* ILB Georgia 6-2½ 242 94
13 Kenny Vaccaro DS Texas 6-0 214 93
14 Sheldon Richardson* DT Missouri 6-2½ 294 93
15 Tavon Austin WR West Virginia 5-8½ 174 93
16 Jarvis Jones* OLB Georgia 6-2⅜ 245 93
17 Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame 6-5½ 250 93
Tier 4
These prospects have the tools to be good value picks in the late-first round.
OVR Player POS School HT WT Grade
18 Bjoern Werner* DE Florida State 6-3¼ 266 92
19 Keenan Allen* WR California 6-2 206 91
20 Sylvester Williams DT North Carolina 6-2⅝ 313 91
21 D.J. Fluker* OT Alabama 6-4⅝ 339 91
22 Cordarrelle Patterson* WR Tennessee 6-1⅞ 216 90
23 Desmond Trufant CB Washington 5-11⅝ 190 90
24 Geno Smith QB West Virginia 6-2⅜ 218 90
25 John Jenkins DT Georgia 6-3⅝ 346 90
26 Manti Te'o ILB Notre Dame 6-1¼ 241 90
Tier 5
These are the players teams will begin targeting as value picks early in Round 2 should they fall out of Round 1.
OVR Player POS School HT WT Grade
27 Kawann Short DT Purdue 6-2⅞ 299 89
28 Justin Pugh* OG Syracuse 6-4½ 307 89
29 Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB Connecticut 6-0¾ 195 89
30 Sam Montgomery* DE LSU 6-3 262 89
31 Eddie Lacy* RB Alabama 5-11 231 89
32 Justin Hunter* WR Tennessee 6-4 196 89
33 Zach Ertz* TE Stanford 6-5 249 89
34 Menelik Watson* OT Florida State 6-5⅛ 310 88
35 Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas 6-2⅛ 215 88
36 Matt Barkley QB USC 6-2½ 227 87
37 Johnathan Hankins* DT Ohio State 6-2⅞ 320 87
38 Damontre Moore* DE Texas A&M 6-4½ 250 87
39 Quinton Patton WR Louisiana Tech 6-0 204 86
40 Xavier Rhodes* CB Florida State 6-1½ 210 86
41 Margus Hunt DE SMU 6-8⅛ 277 86
Tier 6
This tier contains prospects who are worthy of mid-to-late second-round consideration.
OVR Player POS School HT WT Grade
42 Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse 6-2⅛ 227 85
43 DeAndre Hopkins* WR Clemson 6-1 214 85
44 Travis Frederick* OC Wisconsin 6-3⅝ 312 85
45 Kevin Minter* ILB LSU 5-11¾ 246 84
46 Cornellius Carradine DE Florida State 6-4⅛ 276 84
47 Gavin Escobar* TE San Diego State 6-5⅞ 254 84
48 Sio Moore OLB Connecticut 6-0 245 84
49 Brandon Williams DT Missouri Southern State 6-1¼ 335 84
50 DJ Hayden CB Houston 5-11⅛ 191 84
51 Landry Jones QB Oklahoma 6-4⅛ 225 84
52 Aaron Dobson WR Marshall 6-2¾ 210 84
53 Johnthan Banks CB Mississippi State 6-2 185 83
54 D.J. Swearinger S South Carolina 5-10½ 208 83
55 Jesse Williams DT Alabama 6-3⅜ 323 83
56 Terrance Williams WR Baylor 6-2 208 83
57 Kyle Long OG Oregon 6-6⅛ 313 83
58 Jamar Taylor CB Boise State 5-10⅝ 192 82
59 Larry Warford OG Kentucky 6-3 332 82
60 Khaseem Greene OLB Rutgers 6-0¾ 241 82
61 Terron Armstead OT Arkansas-Pine Bluff 6-4¾ 306 82
62 Robert Woods* WR USC 6-0⅜ 201 82
63 Matt Elam* S Florida 5-9⅞ 208 81
64 Datone Jones DE UCLA 6-3⅞ 283 81
65 Arthur Brown OLB Kansas State 6-0⅜ 241 81
66 EJ Manuel QB Florida State 6-4⅝ 237 81
67 John Cyprien S FIU 6-0¼ 217 80
68 Mike Glennon QB North Carolina State 6-7⅛ 225 80
69 Jordan Reed* TE Florida 6-2½ 236 80
Tier 7
These players rank as solid third-round prospects.
OVR Player POS School HT WT Grade
70 Akeem Spence* DT Illinois 6-0⅝ 307 79
71 Montee Ball RB Wisconsin 5-10½ 214 79
72 Shamarko Thomas DS Syracuse 5-8⅞ 213 79
73 Travis Kelce TE Cincinnati 6-4⅞ 255 79
74 Eric Reid* DS LSU 6-1¼ 213 78
75 Robert Alford DC Southeastern Louisiana 5-10⅛ 188 78
76 Corey Lemonier* DE Auburn 6-3⅜ 255 78
77 Bennie Logan* DT LSU 6-1⅞ 309 78
78 Kiko Alonso ILB Oregon 6-3⅜ 238 78
79 Tyler Bray* QB Tennessee 6-6⅛ 232 78
80 Vance McDonald TE Rice 6-4⅛ 267 78
81 Andre Ellington RB Clemson 5-9¼ 199 78
82 Dallas Thomas OG Tennessee 6-5½ 306 78
83 Logan Ryan* DC Rutgers 5-11⅛ 191 77
84 Le'Veon Bell* RB Michigan State 6-1⅜ 230 77
85 Jamie Collins OLB Southern Miss 6-3½ 250 77
86 Bacarri Rambo DS Georgia 6-0½ 211 77
87 Markus Wheaton WR Oregon State 5-11 189 77
88 Brian Schwenke OC California 6-3 314 76
89 Brian Winters OG Kent State 6-3⅝ 318 76
90 Brandon Jenkins OLB Florida State 6-2½ 251 76
91 B.W. Webb DC William & Mary 5-10¼ 184 76
92 Shawn Williams DS Georgia 5-11⅞ 213 75
93 Christine Michael RB Texas A&M 5-10 220 75
94 Oday Aboushi OG Virginia 6-5⅜ 308 75
95 Marc Anthony DC California 5-11⅜ 196 75
96 Stedman Bailey* WR West Virginia 5-10¼ 193 75
97 Kevin Reddikk ILB North Carolina 6-1⅜ 243 75
98 Alex Okafor DE Texas 6-4½ 264 74
99 Barrett Jones OC Alabama 6-4½ 306 74
100 DeVonte Holloman OLB South Carolina 6-1⅜ 243 74
101 Steve Williams* DC California 5-8⅞ 181 74
102 Jordan Mills OT Louisiana Tech 6-5 316 74
103 Darius Slay DC Mississippi State 5-11⅞ 192 73
104 Jawan Jamison* RB Rutgers 5-7⅜ 203 73
105 Mike Buchanan DE Illinois 6-5⅜ 255 73
106 David Amerson* DC North Carolina State 6-1 205 72
107 William Gholston* DE Michigan State 6-6¼ 281 72
108 Phillip Thomas DS Fresno State 6-0½ 208 72
109 Mike Gillislee RB Florida 5-11⅛ 208 72
110 Ricky Wagner OT Wisconsin 6-5⅞ 308 72
111 Jordan Poyer DC Oregon State 5-11⅞ 191 71
112 Malliciah Goodman DE Clemson 6-3⅝ 276 71
113 Brennan Williams OT North Carolina 6-5⅝ 318 71
114 Giovani Bernard* RB North Carolina 5-8⅜ 202 71
115 Tavarres King WR Georgia 6-0¼ 189 71