Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

Skooby · Mar 15, 2013

FreedS[ohh]lave;3574847 said:
Joshua Langford finishes freshman year on top - ESPN

Langford finishes freshman year on top

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. -- In the Class 3A Alabama state semifinal game, freshman Joshua Langford scored 30 points and pulled down 16 rebounds as Madison Academy held off a Greensboro team featuring Alabama signee Jimmie Taylor to advance to the finals.

What would the 2016 prospect do for an encore?

How about 21 points, 19 rebounds and six assists in the championship game to lead the Mustangs to a win over Southside Selma. It wasnt easy, though. In the first half, Langford shot just 2 of 15 from the field, but he and his teammates battled back in the second half to overcome a double-digit lead and claim the state title.

It feels good, Langford said. The game is a team sport. I always put it back on my teammates for getting us to where were at. It was a big win for that team.

Wed been through so much through the whole year with the football players coming back late. We had a losing season, but halfway through the season, we decided that we were just going to play for each other and we were going to come together.

That championship game was like our whole year. We were down, but we came back, we fought through it and got the win.

When it was over, Langford was named the tournament MVP. Hes also a prime candidate to take home the coveted Mr. Basketball award for the state of Alabama. Remember, hes just a freshman.

Its no surprise that the 6-foot-5 Langford already has five scholarship offers from Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Tennessee and UAB. Hes also receiving interest from a pair of Pac-12 schools, Stanford and UCLA, as well as Memphis more recently.

Over the weekend, he visited Alabama for the Crimson Tides final regular-season home game against Georgia.

It was a great game, Langford said. Coach [Anthony] Grant, he always makes me feel welcome down there, and they always make it a great environment down there.

The game was an instant classic. Junior point guard Trevor Releford hit a half-court shot at the buzzer to propel the Tide past the Bulldogs.

I kind of called the shot when he shot it, Langford said. When he let it go, I kind of saw it. I was like, this is going in. It was a big shot for Trevor.

After the game, he was saying that he and one of the walk-ons, they were practicing that shot before practice the other day. He said he wasnt even making it then, but he ended up making it in the game. He was surprised.

Langford gets a short break before he travels to Chicago at the end of the month for Adidas Nations. This summer, hes set to play with the Atlanta Celtics 17u team, which should land him more exposure and interest from more schools.

Frump · Mar 18, 2013

Dave Telep's Starting 5: Julius Randle, class rankings and more basketball recruiting - ESPN

Jplaya2023 · Mar 18, 2013

NBA -- Why the numbers show Chris Paul best since Magic (including Isiah) - ESPN

Jplaya2023 · Mar 18, 2013

NBA - Boston Celtics' chances to stop Miami Heat's win streak - ESPN

Skooby · Mar 18, 2013

Frump said:
Dave Telep's Starting 5: Julius Randle, class rankings and more basketball recruiting - ESPN

Starting 5: Bracket madness

1. Seeding the teams in Randle's field

Wouldn't it be just like Kentucky to make big headlines this week after missing the NCAA tournament? On Wednesday, No. 3 overall recruit and No. 1 senior power forward Julius Randle (Dallas/Prestonwood Christian) will announce his college decision live on ESPNU at approximately 1:15 p.m. ET.

On the bubble are Kentucky, Kansas, Texas and Florida. Forget the fact that Texas and UK missed the NCAA tournament this year -- this is a loaded field of finalists.

On Sunday night, I checked in one final time with momma Randle, Carolyn Kyles.

"He said he's still thinking about it," Kyles said. "We're going to sit down and go over some things and go from there. I'm sure he probably has an idea, but he hasn't said anything.

"I'm just ready to get it over with. He wanted to shut his phone down the other day to all the last-minute things. I'm ready to get it over with. It's been a long road. It's been a great journey."

If you listen to the whispers, you hear Kentucky. They aren't shouts, they're whispers -- and for good reason. The Wildcats are sitting on an historic recruiting class that is one player away from relegating Michigan's famed "Fab Five" to second-class citizen status. Give John Calipari Randle or No. 1 prospect Andrew Wiggins and there is no debate. Kentucky's haul would be the greatest class ever.

In the spirit of the NCAA tourney, I'd seed Randle's field like this (and this is no prediction, just one man's seeding):

(1) Kentucky vs. (4) Florida
(2) Kansas vs. (3) Texas

In an SEC battle, UK's ability to make Randle a centerpiece in a national championship run trumps Billy Donovan's relationship with the forward dating back to coaching him on the USA Basketball junior team last summer.

In the other semifinal, Kansas wins on strength of the official visit. The fact that the Longhorns were in a tailspin this year didn't help the Horns' chances.

In the title game we have two combatants that have tangled before -- many times before. Whatever gym Randle walks into next fall, he is an immediate starter. We know that for sure, no matter who comes back for Kentucky or Kansas. That's not the concern. What we don't know is the answer to this question: What's the most important factor in the decision?

"The most important thing?" Kyles said. "I really can't say one thing. Julius is a hard worker. Wherever he goes, he has the work ethic to put in the extra stuff and be in the gym to make sure he gets himself ready. Whoever he's playing with, he's always said he wants to be the leader to keep everyone motivated and hungry to win a championship. He doesn't want a coach that's going to baby him. He's always said that he wants a coach who is going to push him and make him better for the next level."

Bill Self vs. John Calipari. Kentucky vs. Kansas. That's what I see the decision coming down to. Who wins? I couldn't tell you. Can Texas spring an upset? In tourney terms, Texas sneaking in there would be the equivalent of a 14 seed knocking off a 3. Florida landing him would be a 15 beating a 2.

Take the chalk in this one and advance Kentucky and Kansas in your Randle brackets. Either way, we'll know for sure on Wednesday.

2. The bracket based on recruiting class rankings

There are a lot of ways to fill out an NCAA tournament bracket. On Sunday night, I filled one out for real and then had fun with a second entry. Instead of agonizing over picking games, I simply used our 2013 recruiting class rankings to fill out a bracket.

When I was finished, Memphis won the national championship over Kansas. (Kentucky, owner of the No. 1 class, didn't make the field.) Indiana and Notre Dame won their respective regions. Along the way, there were some notable upsets.

Right off the bat, Michigan State lost. The Spartans currently don't have a single recruit in their 2013 class. Valparaiso didn't bowl us over with headliners, but five signees beats zero so Valpo springs the big upset.

The other significant first-game upset belonged to Harvard. The Crimson, behind power forward Zena Edosomwan, took down New Mexico, whose top signee is Bryce Alford, coach Steve Alford's son.

Having trouble picking the Cal vs. UNLV game? Take the Golden Bears and ESPN 100 recruit Jabari Bird.

In order to get to the Elite Eight -- Louisville, Memphis, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, Kansas, Florida, Indiana and Marquette -- there were another set of upsets.

Notre Dame took care of Ohio State in the round of 32 based largely on the strength of ESPN 100 point guard Demetrius Jackson.

San Diego State, in an upset, held off Georgetown, whose only signee is Reggie Cameron. The Aztecs countered with fellow ESPN 100 recruit Dakarai Allen to lock him up.

Illinois popped Miami in the third round before Marquette bumped the Illini in the Sweet 16.

How about Memphis beating Duke and then top-seeded Louisville in the Midwest? Just as many think the Midwest is the strongest region on the court, it also proved to be the strongest in the class rankings. Josh Pastner's No. 2 overall class got him past a pair of top-10 classes.

3. Freshman Orientation: Jayson Tatum

There's a rich basketball tradition at Chaminade Prep in St. Louis. David Lee and Bradley Beal both played there. As freshmen, however, neither of them accomplished what small forward Jayson Tatum (St. Louis/Chaminade) did in his first season.

After tossing in 13 points per game for an 18-8 team, Tatum was a first-team all-conference player and the conference player of the year. Neither Lee nor Beal did that.

"Bradley texted me and said congratulations," Tatum said.

In October at USA Basketball's fall workout, Tatum measured 6-foot-5. He's now 6-foot-7 -- and growing. Already a versatile player, he speaks with humility and confidence.

"I'm very versatile, can play 1 to 4 and guard it, too," Tatum said. "I've got a consistent jump shot, midrange mostly, and can get to the basket or shoot it off the dribble."

Kansas State head coach Bruce Weber watched him practice this year, and Illinois head coach John Groce attended his final game of the season. Tatum, the son of former St. Louis Billikens player Justin Tatum, has been to Kansas, Missouri and Memphis unofficially.

"Hopefully I can do the same thing for the next three years and get a state championship before I leave high school," Tatum said.

In case you were wondering, Beal won a title as a sophomore but Lee never finished first in the state.

4. Hicks' closing kick was huge

I got to see North Carolina recruit Isaiah Hicks (Oxford, N.C./Webb) play his second-to-last game of the season. Colleague Paul Biancardi saw his final one on Saturday. Turns out, Biancardi saw the best game of Hicks' career.

In a state championship victory, Hicks scored 34 points, pulled down 30 rebounds and blocked seven shots against Statesville High. The 30 rebounds trumped the previous North Carolina state finals record of 21 set by Reggie Johnson, currently of Miami and formerly of Winston-Salem Prep.

In the regional final game I witnessed, Hicks dominated the second half, scoring 22 points and finishing with 10 rebounds and nine blocks. It was his defense down the stretch that clinched the win against Rocky Mount.

Hicks is a big-time player and a high-level prospect. Following the last two weeks of his high school career, expectations for him next year at North Carolina just shot through the roof. The kid can run, rebound, reject and rip jumpers. At 6-foot-9, he's skilled and a good athlete.

Having said all this, the summer will be the big key for him. He has to put on weight to defend in the post at the ACC level. But all of the pieces and natural ability are there for him to be an elite college player and future NBA prospect.

The most important thing I'll take from Hicks' spectacular finish to his prep career is the increased confidence he has in himself and his game. In my opinion, and I've said this before, he has the biggest ceiling of all the top 20 frontcourt players. Others will get out of the gate quicker because they're physically further along. As good as Hicks has been, there's still physical development that can occur plus continued work on his perimeter shot.

When those two things merge, because he has legitimate touch and range, he could blossom into a special performer at UNC.

5. Watch out for Brandon Ingram

The Kinston Vikings won their second North Carolina 2-A state championship over the weekend. Tucked away on a roster of seniors was sophomore Brandon Ingram (Kinston, N.C./Kinston). At nearly 6-foot-7, Ingram is an outlier. I don't know what his reach or wingspan is, but I guarantee it's up there with the best in the country. Think Tayshaun Prince.

Now, the kid is so skinny that you could track the path of a cheeseburger from his throat to his stomach, but he's young and strength will come. What you need to know is that he's on the verge of becoming an elite defensive player and unique forward. Time will tell if he grows out of the small forward position and into a power forward. Regardless, he has a fine stroke and can already drive from the wing and finish with a flush.

NC State offered him earlier this month. Kentucky also likes him, and he's been to a series of North Carolina games.

As a Kinston resident, his recruitment has the tell-tale signs of a Tar Heel advantage. Jerry Stackhouse, Quinton Coples and Reggie Bullock all wore the Vikings cut as high school basketball players, and they each matriculated to Chapel Hill (Coples played football). It's worth noting because this young man could conceivably receive offers from the highest-level programs in the country.

Skooby · Mar 18, 2013

Jplaya2023 said:
NBA -- Why the numbers show Chris Paul best since Magic (including Isiah) - ESPN

Chris Paul or Isiah Thomas?

When you watch Chris Paul, you're watching the best point guard since Magic Johnson.

To many fans, that assessment may sound extreme. Paul is not usually hailed as an all-timer, yet, and his jersey sales rank only 10th among players. Though he plays in big market L.A., he has never quite captured the public's attention like Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Kevin Durant have, despite turning a moribund franchise, the Los Angeles Clippers, into an entertainment tour de force that just might win a title.

But while "best since Magic" is not Paul's public identity, he's putting up numbers that should make it inevitable. Just for starters, among all the players in NBA history, he's No. 7 in player efficiency rating and No. 4 in win share average. And impressive as the numbers are, they can't even fully convey Paul's human-metronome control of team pace and prescient court vision. We are watching one of the all-time greats, night after night, in between fretting over this wild Lakers season.

But to grab the spot behind Magic, Paul has to supplant Isiah Thomas' pesky legacy. As it stands, CP3 has already passed and lapped Zeke statistically, while paradoxically lagging far behind him in cultural consensus -- probably forever. How does that work?

When ESPN convened a greatest point guards rankings in 2006, Isiah Thomas was third behind Magic and Oscar Robertson -- meaning Isiah was considered No. 2 in the modern era, the best modern PG not named Magic and the best small point guard ever. That's an ethereal plane in the basketball world, and all the more impressive considering Isiah's slight size.

It's that small stature that makes CP3 comparisons natural, along with the amazing ball skills used by both to dominate while surveying the court and making plays.

Isiah's rep is based on more than dazzling play, of course. He won two titles and made three NBA Finals in a basketball golden age. If sepia tones could glitter, they'd burnish our memories of how Zeke's fiery leadership helped a blue-collar team overcome hoops leviathans such as Magic Johnson and Michael Jordan.

This is why it's a little jarring to look at Zeke's production and see how meager it looks when stacked against Paul's. If you compare their careers at age 27, Chris Paul emerges with the better assist percentage, rebounding percentage and true shooting percentage. At age 27, Paul's PER is 25.5 to Isiah's 19.1. And Paul has collected 38.9 more win shares to this point -- that's an approximation of how many wins CP3 has created above Isiah's.

Paul turns the ball over less often, steals the ball more, shoots better from the line, shoots more often from the line, and shoots better from beyond the arc. You can call Zeke more of a "pure point guard," but just know that both averaged 9.8 assists through age 27 -- and Paul did it on 1.4 fewer turnovers.

It's hard to find anything, anything at all, that Thomas did better than Paul on a day-to-day basis. This isn't a matter of advanced stats preferring Paul, it's a matter of nearly every statistic preferring Paul.

Isiah's game had flaws, and we tend to forget them because he tended to forget them on the biggest of stages. When you deliver a 25-point NBA Finals quarter on a pretzel of an ankle, you blot out memories of a turnover-prone high dribble, and rim-prone floater. When your team takes out Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson in their prime years, you earn a lot of respect.

Those sepia-glitter Isiah Thomas memories matter, and nothing will take them away. If he's overrated, then it's for the best of reasons: The guy performed when the eyes of the world were upon him.

Thomas also benefitted historically from something that was less within his control, even if he contributed to it: He played with an elite defense. His Pistons teams were top-three in the league in each year of that three-season NBA Finals span. But few would say that he was a better defender than CP3.

I don't wish to trash Isiah's legacy, or insinuate that he was unimportant to that championship success. He was crucial. I merely wish to point out that a good player can receive a lot of extra praise for having played on a great team, especially if the team excels at defense, an aspect of the game that fewer focus on. If you're a scorer on a great defense, chances are that a disproportionate amount of credit will bounce your way.

Paul, in contrast, hasn't been in the ideal situations for receiving credit. He has been brilliant in the relative obscurity of a mismanaged New Orleans team and L.A.'s second favorite squad. Start his career almost anywhere else besides the NBA's smallest market, and Paul's basketball genius garners far more recognition from the casual fan. Place CP3 amid some better teams, and that genius translates into "the eyes of the world are upon him" playoff moments.

Regardless, we should realize and appreciate how Chris Paul is providing the best point guard play we've ever seen on a night-in, night-out basis. This gets lost sometimes when we compare players across eras: Playoff success is not the same as a consistently better regular-season product.

What also gets lost when we do historical comparisons is that our collective memories are far from perfect. The Moneyball revolution loudly shouted that baseball's closest observers were wrong-headed about the sport. Basketball has never significantly looked backward, en masse, when given the improved analytics of the past 10 years. We rely on whatever solidified into conventional wisdom, way back when. It's fair to question what we all "know" about the past.

It's fair to declare that Chris Paul has played his position better than Isiah Thomas did on most nights.

Jplaya2023 said:
NBA - Boston Celtics' chances to stop Miami Heat's win streak - ESPN

Can Boston Celtics end Heat's run?

If the Miami Heat's 22-game winning streak is going to end anytime soon, it will probably be Monday night at the TD Garden in Boston at the hands of the rival Celtics. Boston is the best team the Heat will face until they visit Chicago on March 27, and this contest is the second of back-to-back road games for Miami. Beyond that, the Celtics have historically given the Heat as much difficulty as any opponent in the league.

MIAMI KRYPTONITE

Team Wins Losses Pct.
Boston 3 7 .300
Chicago 3 6 .333
L.A. Clippers 2 3 .400
Memphis 2 3 .400
Utah 2 3 .400

You remember Boston taking a 3-2 series lead over Miami in last year's Eastern Conference finals before the Heat rallied to win the last two games en route to the championship. The Celtics have been troublesome for Miami much longer than that. In the nearly three full seasons since LeBron James and Chris Bosh took their talents to South Beach, Boston is 7-3 against the Heat -- the best record of any opponent (see chart).

What's the formula the Celtics and a handful of other teams have used to beat Miami? And does it still apply now that Ray Allen is on the other side and Rajon Rondo is watching from the sideline? That has implications for Boston's chances of winning Monday, and more importantly in case these teams meet for the third consecutive postseason.

1. Playing big

Of the five teams, including the Celtics, with an above-.500 record against the James-led Heat, Boston is the only one that employs small ball on a regular basis. The other four teams feature a pair of true big men capable of taking advantage of Miami's smaller frontcourt, a matchup that has only become more important this season. Add in Indiana (2-1 versus the Heat this season) and the trend becomes all the stronger. Only the New York Knicks have succeeded against Miami by matching up small against small.

That's not to say the Celtics should call up Fab Melo for this game. The Heat are vulnerable to a relatively rare type of big man -- a player who is strong enough to post up Shane Battier and crash the offensive glass, and athletic enough to defend shooters such as Battier and Bosh on the perimeter. Power forwards David West (Indiana), Blake Griffin (L.A. Clippers) and Paul Millsap (Utah) fall into that category. So do Boston's Kevin Garnett and Chicago's Joakim Noah, who are two of the league's most versatile centers when it comes to defending on the perimeter.

Although Garnett doesn't exactly bully Miami in the paint, he still used his pick-and-pop game to average 19.1 points in last year's playoff series. Add in his role on defense and Garnett is even more critical than usual in the matchup with the Heat. In the 91 minutes he spent on the bench in last year's Eastern Conference finals, Boston was outscored by 17.4 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com/Stats.

2. Matching up on the wing

Another common factor among the teams that have bothered Miami: elite wing defenders capable of making LeBron and Dwyane Wade work for their points. The group includes stoppers such as Chicago's Luol Deng, Indiana's Paul George and Memphis' Tony Allen. Nobody does better in this regard than the Celtics, who can throw the tandem of Avery Bradley and Paul Pierce at Wade and James, respectively, with Jeff Green finishing games against James and Courtney Lee offering another option on Wade.

Per ESPN's Stats & Information research, Bradley (.297, 1st), Green (.336, 7th) and Pierce (.340, 9th) all rank among the NBA's top 10 on-ball defenders this season as measured by field goal percentage against them. That gives coach Doc Rivers a variety of defensive options and keeps Bradley, Green and Pierce fresh.

Because Bradley barely played as a rookie and Green missed last year after heart surgery, this is the first season Boston has had a full complement of wing defenders to match up with the Heat. The Celtics have always done well against Wade, who has averaged just 17.3 points on 36.2 percent FG shooting in nine regular-season matchups between the teams in the past three seasons (including this season). James has been more effective, although Boston has held him to 51.1 percent shooting, compared with his 53 percent overall accuracy in that time frame.

Those same trends held on Jan. 27, when Boston handed the Heat one of their last losses before their winning streak began. James needed 31 shot attempts to score 34 points, and Wade was limited to 17 points on 6-of-20 shooting.

3. Defending the 3

Lastly, the Miami offense feeds on 3-pointers. The Heat are shooting 40.3 percent from downtown in wins, compared with 32.8 percent in losses. It should come as no surprise, then, that the league's three best 3-point defenses (Indiana, Boston and Chicago) have had success against Miami. The Heat shot just 5-of-23 from long distance in the loss at Boston earlier this season. In particular, the Celtics took away Miami's beloved corner 3, holding the Heat to 1-of-8 from the sideline, per NBA.com/Stats.

4. Pulling the upset?

The good news for Boston fans when it comes to assessing the Celtics' chances of knocking off Miami is that none of those factors really involves injured point guard Rondo. As good as Rondo was in last year's Eastern Conference finals, Boston has already demonstrated its ability to survive offensively without him. If anything, replacing Rondo with Lee has given Rivers more defensive options against the Heat's stars, so Rondo's absence shouldn't affect this analysis.

The more important figure is Garnett. If he sits out Monday because of the adductor strain that caused him to miss Boston's win over Charlotte on Saturday, it's hard to imagine that a defense anchored by Brandon Bass can slow down the Heat. Rivers told reporters on Sunday that Garnett is "50-50 at best" to play Monday.

The Celtics are managing Garnett's injury carefully precisely so he's available for the playoffs, and a potential matchup with Miami somewhere along the line. If that materializes, Boston's matchup advantages serve to cut into the Heat's talent edge, without entirely erasing it. After all, the two teams are now in totally different ZIP codes. As the Celtics battle to get back in the race for the Atlantic Division, Miami is playing the best basketball we've seen from any team in years.

As promising as the Celtics' win over the Heat in January was, it still required overtime on their home floor, and Miami had three shots that could have won the game in the closing seconds. There's a big jump between beating the Heat once and doing so four times in seven games. With the way Miami is playing right now, it doesn't appear these Celtics -- or anyone else in the East -- are likely to stand in the way of another Heat trip to the Finals.

STAN JONES · Mar 18, 2013

@Skooby

2013 NFL draft - Todd McShay's third mock draft - ESPN

2013 NFL draft - First breakdown of talent tiers - ESPN

2013 NFL draft -- Finding gems, finding flaws - ESPN

2013 NFL free agency -- Offseason plans for the Baltimore Ravens - ESPN

sorry for all the links but can you hook me up breh :ld:

Skooby · Mar 18, 2013

STAN JONES said:
@Skooby

2013 NFL draft - Todd McShay's third mock draft - ESPN
[/url]

sorry for all the links but can you hook me up breh

Defense dominates the top 10

1 Star Lotulelei
Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
COLLEGE: UtahAGE: 23HT: 6-2½WT: 311POS: DT
Analysis: Most people will have OT Luke Joeckel going to the Chiefs, even after they franchised OT Branden Albert, and I think that's a viable option. But I'm also convinced that Lotulelei is very much in play for the Chiefs at No. 1. First off, the Chiefs have handled their business on offense with the trade for QB Alex Smith, the re-signing of WR Dwayne Bowe to a five-year deal, and placing the franchise tag on Albert. Don't be surprised if the focus shifts to defense in April's draft.

The Chiefs, under new defensive coordinator Bob Sutton, will continue to operate out of a base 3-4 scheme. By adding Lotulelei at DE alongside former first-round picks NT Dontari Poe and DE Tyson Jackson, it would give them a tremendously talented young front to build around. This group could become a brick wall versus the run, with Poe and Lotulelei capable of exploiting some one-on-one pass-rushing opportunities as Tamba Hali and Justin Houston grab extra attention on the perimeter.

2 Luke Joeckel*
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&MAGE: 21HT: 6-6WT: 306POS: OT
Analysis: Upgrading the pass rush is the top need for a team that finished with a league-worst 20 sacks in 2012. Here, DE Ezekiel Ansah, DE/OLB Dion Jordan and DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo are viable options.

But the highest-rated prospect available is Joeckel, and the Jaguars need help on that line as well. They surrendered 50 sacks last season and finished with third-fewest rushing yards in the NFL. The Jaguars would need to do some shuffling to make all the parts fit, but drafting Joeckel would immediately improve the mean age and the talent level of their offensive line.

Something to keep in mind: Coordinator Jedd Fisch's offense does feature more man-blocking, so it will be interesting to see whether the Jaguars believe Joeckel -- or our No. 2-rated OT Eric Fisher -- can develop into a good system fit.

3 Sharrif Floyd*
Oakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: FloridaAGE: 20HT: 6-2]WT: 297POS: DT
Analysis: I hear all the noise out of Oakland regarding Geno Smith, but I just can't get on board. This team has so many holes and is so financially strapped that it can't afford to take a chance on a quarterback who has some holes in his game.

The smart play is to draft the best available lineman -- offensive or defensive -- who fits what the Raiders do schematically. I give the nod to Floyd. This guy has outstanding intangibles, he doesn't have durability issues and he's a disruptive force who will fit perfectly as a three-technique in Oakland's 4-3 front.

4 Dee Milliner*
Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)
COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 5-11⅞WT: 201POS: CB
Analysis: Offensive tackle Eric Fisher could be an option here, but the Eagles' bigger need is on defense, seeing as Jason Peters, center Jason Kelce and right offensive tackle Todd Herremans are expected to be at full strength in 2013.

Oregon OLB Dion Jordan makes a ton of sense because of familiarity with Chip Kelly and defensive line coach Jerry Azzinaro. But the Eagles already have Brandon Graham, Trent Cole, Vinny Curry and Phillip Hunt to serve as outside linebackers in their hybrid 3-4 scheme. Jordan is potentially a significant upgrade, but will they draft him with all that existing depth?

The Eagles also released Cullen Jenkins and Mike Patterson, which leaves them with Fletcher Cox and some question marks. Lotulelei would be in play if available, but he's not in this scenario. Ezekiel Ansah could fit as a versatile defensive end, but cornerback is arguably the team's biggest need with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie not likely to return and Nnamdi Asomugha expected to become a cap casualty.

Milliner is the only top-tier cornerback in this class. He also answered questions about his speed with an official 40 time of 4.37 at the combine.

5 Ezekiel Ansah*
Detroit Lions (4-12)
COLLEGE: BYUAGE: 23HT: 6-5¼WT: 271POS: DE
Analysis: The Lions need a cornerback, but there are no legitimate options with Milliner off the board. It's too early to pick Texas safety Kenny Vaccaro, especially after he ran a 4.63 40-yard dash at the combine, which caused some concern.

It's a tough call here between Ansah and Fisher. Fisher is the safer pick, but this team needs perimeter talent to go along with the strength of its defense -- Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley at defensive tackle.

And I get it. Ansah lacks experience. But study his tape from the second half of the season, then study his dominant performance in the Senior Bowl game. Then look at his freakish combination of workout results at the combine. I'll take Ansah over most players with a lot more experience in this draft. I think he would be a great pick for the Lions at No. 5.

6 Dion Jordan
Cleveland Browns (5-11)
COLLEGE: OregonAGE: 22HT: 6-6¼WT: 248POS: OLB
Analysis: Under new coordinator Ray Horton, the Browns could feature multiple fronts with an eye on transitioning to more of a base 3-4 defense. Jordan is a phenomenal athlete who fits best working out of a two-point stance.

He has the length, speed and athleticism to immediately make a significant contribution as a pass-rusher and pursuit run-defender. Jordan also has good awareness in coverage and unusually fluid hips for his 6-foot-6 frame. The combination of Jordan opposite Jabaal Sheard would cause problems for opposing offenses.

7 Geno Smith
Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
COLLEGE: West VirginiaAGE: 23HT: 6-2⅜WT: 218POS: QB
Analysis: I don't have a true first-round grade on Smith, and I don't feel great about slotting him anywhere in the top 10. But we all know the drill -- quarterbacks will get bumped up the board come April 25, and Smith is likely to be the first quarterback off the board.

Does Bruce Arians believe that Smith can be the long-term answer for the Cardinals? That's really what this pick comes down to. If not, the Cardinals could upgrade their offensive line by drafting the still developing but exceptionally athletic OT Lane Johnson from Oklahoma.

As for Smith, he could come off the board one pick later to the Bills or two picks later to the Jets. If he's still on the board at No. 10, that's when things would get interesting because there isn't a team with a pressing need at QB until we circle back around in Round 2.

8 Eric Fisher
Buffalo Bills (6-10)
COLLEGE: Central MichiganAGE: 22HT: 6-7WT: 306POS: OT
Analysis: Offensive tackles get bumped down a bit if Lotulelei goes No. 1, and that's the case in this scenario. But some teams have Fisher higher than Joeckel, so Fisher could go as high as No. 1 overall. He also could go to the Jaguars at No. 2, the Raiders at No. 3, the Eagles at No. 4, the Lions at No. 5 … well, you get the picture.

If Fisher falls to No. 8, the Bills shouldn't think twice. He becomes the long-term answer at left tackle, and Cordy Glenn moves to right tackle after a strong rookie season.

9 Barkevious Mingo*
New York Jets (6-10)
COLLEGE: LSUAGE: 22HT: 6-4¼WT: 241POS: DE
Analysis: I have no problem with Mingo as a top-10 pick. His lack of sack production is being overemphasized, as he often faced extra attention from double-teams. In multiple games I saw on tape, he was limited in a gap-discipline game plan to limit mobile quarterbacks.

Yes, he needs to get bigger and stronger to hold up better against the run. He also needs to improve his speed-to-power rush, but he is an explosive pass-rusher already, and his motor is always running. He is athletic enough to occasionally drop into coverage, but he will get paid to get after the QB. That's exactly what the Jets need on defense.

10 Jonathan Cooper
Tennessee Titans (6-10)
COLLEGE: North CarolinaAGE: 23HT: 6-2⅛WT: 311POS: G
Analysis: This is a zone-blocking group under coordinator Dowell Loggains. Alabama guard Chance Warmack is athletic enough, and he played in a heavy zone-blocking scheme at Alabama. He absolutely fits the bill and would be a great pick for the Titans.

But Cooper is the more explosive athlete and might be a slightly better fit for what the Titans are looking for. Either way, they will be in great shape if they draft one of these two exceptionally gifted guards at No. 10. (Guards in the top 10? I can't believe I just wrote that. …)

11 Lane Johnson
San Diego Chargers (7-9)
COLLEGE: OklahomaAGE: 22HT: 6-6WT: 303POS: OT
Analysis: The fastest way to becoming a winning team again is to protect QB Philip Rivers. Jared Gaither was a nightmare at left tackle, and there's no telling whether he cares enough to put in the time this offseason to turn his play around.

The Chargers can't afford to gamble. They'll be fortunate if Johnson lasts this long. He's still developing, but it's obvious on tape that his arrow is pointing way north. He has made huge strides at offensive tackle -- and remember, he was a quarterback at Kilgore Community College just a few years ago. He also has had stops at tight end, defensive end and right tackle before landing at left tackle in 2012.

Johnson can become a standout left tackle in the NFL if his hands continue to improve and if he keeps getting stronger.

12 Keenan Allen*
Miami Dolphins (7-9)
COLLEGE: CaliforniaAGE: 20HT: 6-2WT: 206POS: WR
Analysis: It would not be ideal for the Dolphins if the board falls in this order. Their most pressing positions of need are cornerback and offensive tackle, and the top-tier talents at both positions are gone. Ryan Tannehill is desperate for more playmakers, so drafting a wide receiver at No. 12 is not at all out of the question -- even if they sign a veteran starter via free agency.

Tennessee's Cordarrelle Patterson is the most dynamic athlete at wide receiver, but he is extremely raw and will need a lot of reps in order to retain new information. I just don't think that lines up with what coach Joe Philbin and offensive coordinator Mike Sherman are looking for in their up-tempo version of the West Coast offense.

Allen, on the other hand, is not a burner, but he is a polished route-runner with good size (6-2, 206) and natural playmaking ability.

13 Kenny Vaccaro
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
COLLEGE: TexasAGE: 21HT: 6-0WT: 214POS: S
Analysis: The Bucs' secondary is an absolute mess with the exception of Mark Barron. So although spending first-round picks on safeties in back-to-back drafts might not be ideal, Vaccaro makes a lot of sense. I expect him to improve his 40 time at Texas' pro day, and the rest of his combine results were near or atop the list for safeties.

More important, Vaccaro's tape is excellent. Vaccaro is clearly the most complete safety in the 2013 class, and his ability to match up against pass-catching TEs in the slot, as well as to handle deep-third responsibilities in zone coverage, would give this Bucs secondary some much-needed flexibility.

14 Sheldon Richardson
Carolina Panthers (7-9)
COLLEGE: MissouriAGE: 21HT: 6-2½WT: 294POS: DT
Analysis: In this mock, Vaccaro is gone, so there's no safety available worth selecting at No. 14. Also, wide receivers Patterson and Tavon Austin could be in play here.

While this may be a bit high for Richardson, who is a classic three-technique D-lineman, he's a terrific athlete and makes some big-time plays because of his speed and change-of-direction skills. On the downside, he will get pushed around at times against the run. He also needs to play with more consistent leverage and improve his bulk and strength.

15 Alec Ogletree *
New Orleans Saints (7-9)
COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 21HT: 6-2½WT: 242POS: LB
Analysis: For the Saints, the pass-rushers and offensive tackles they would want are gone. Ogletree is an explosive athlete with the ability to cover like a safety, which he was early in his career, and make plays from sideline to sideline against the run.

He has some baggage, but not many guys come along with Ogletree's assortment of skills. He won't last long.

16 Tavon Austin*
St. Louis Rams (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: West VirginiaAGE: 21HT: 5-8½WT: 174POS: WR
Analysis: Offensive tackle is also a high priority for the Rams, but no legitimate left tackle is still available at this point, unless they think Alabama's D.J. Fluker fits on the left side.

Wide receiver Danny Amendola is a free agent, so Austin could be a perfect fit as a young, dynamic weapon in the slot for QB Sam Bradford. Austin is small but has a rare combination of quickness and speed.

17 Jarvis Jones*
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 23HT: 6-2⅜WT: 245POS: LB
Analysis: Cornerback, wide receiver and offensive tackle are all bigger needs, but Jones is a good value pick here if he checks out medically. He fits perfectly as a 3-4 outside linebacker in the Steelers' scheme, which historically has excelled with smaller-framed OLBs.

The bottom line is the Steelers' pass rush -- particularly on third downs -- was lacking last season. James Harrison's play dropped off, and LaMarr Woodley struggled to stay healthy. The Steelers saw some flashes from Jason Worilds, but is he a long-term answer as a starter? What Jones does best is pin his ears back and attack the quarterback off the edge.

Skooby · Mar 18, 2013

18 Chance Warmack
Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 6-2WT: 317POS: G
Analysis: Guards often do not come off the board quickly, and Warmack and UNC's Jonathan Cooper could slip a bit as a result.

But on tape, Warmack is one of the three most complete football players in this class. He could easily go in the top 11 picks to the Bills at No. 8, the Jets at No. 9, the Titans at No. 10 and the Chargers at No. 11. This is not a flashy pick, so Cowboys owner Jerry Jones might squash it. But this would be a great pick for the Cowboys if Warmack lasts all the way down here.

19 Tyler Eifert
New York Giants (9-7)
COLLEGE: Notre DameAGE: 22HT: 6-5½WT: 250POS: TE
Analysis: If Ogletree were still available, he would be a great pick here. The Giants also could go with Fluker, but Eifert is a top tight end and would give Eli Manning another weapon in the passing game. Eifert's ball skills and ability to come down with the jump ball separate him from some other talented tight ends in this class.

20 Cordarrelle Patterson *
Chicago Bears (10-6)
COLLEGE: TennesseeAGE: 21HT: 6-1⅞WT: 216POS: WR
Analysis: The Bears would love for Eifert to fall to them, but in this scenario the Giants get him one pick before. The Bears also could surprise here with a left tackle such as Menelik Watson or Justin Pugh, two athletic players who would need to develop in Marc Trestman's offense.

But Patterson is one of the most explosive, raw athletes in this draft and is one of the most dangerous with the ball in his hands. He has elite natural tools and could be brought along slowly at wide receiver. Also, Patterson allows Trestman to get creative with reverses and screens while occasionally lining up Patterson in the backfield.

21 D.J. Fluker*
Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 6-4½WT: 339POS: OT
Analysis: Would the Bengals replace one Alabama offensive tackle bust with another Alabama OT? If not, the best players at wide receiver, running back and linebacker will be the focus.

Fluker seems to be more dedicated, and he carries his weight much better. He would be a good pick at this portion of the draft.

22 Menelik Watson*
St. Louis Rams (from WAS) (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: Florida StateAGE: 24HT: 6-5⅛WT: 317POS: OT
Analysis: At No. 16, Watson, who is from England, would have been a reach; that's why I went with Austin there.

Here, where I had Keenan Allen in the first mock and Sylvester Williams in the second for the Rams, Watson could work. The Rams have a need at tackle, and Watson is a very talented athlete who is light on his feet for his size. He gets into sets quickly and with a lot of depth. Has long arms and can ride speed rushers past the pocket off the edge. But he's raw, and his football instincts need to develop.

23 Sylvester Williams
Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
COLLEGE: North CarolinaAGE: 24HT: 6-2⅝WT: 313POS: DT
Analysis: Defensive tackle isn't a top need, and the Vikings have bigger needs at wide receiver, outside linebacker and offensive tackle. But Williams is a good fit in defensive coordinator Alan Williams' Tampa 2 defense. Williams is quick and active and has very good football character, too.

24 Justin Pugh*
Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
COLLEGE: SyracuseAGE: 22HT: 6-4½WT: 307POS: G
Analysis: Pugh made history this year as he was one of two non-seniors to participate in the Senior Bowl, a first for the annual all-star game. He might slip down the first round because of 2012 injury and short arms (only 32 inches), but he's a first-round talent on tape. He's very smart. Coaches praise his work ethic and ability to quickly pick up the offense and blocking schemes. Pugh also has good movement skills. He has patience and balance in his sets, and once he's able to latch on he can lock out with his arms and shuffle and mirror defenders.

25 Bjoern Werner*
Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
COLLEGE: Florida St.AGE: 22HT: 6-3¼WT: 266POS: DE
Analysis: Werner could be a steal here if he drops this far and could add depth to an already stout Seahawks defense. His best fit appears to be as a left defensive end for a 4-3 scheme. He has very similar traits and motor to Chris Long but is just a notch below in talent.

26 John Jenkins
Green Bay Packers (11-5)
COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 23HT: 6-3⅝WT: 346POS: DT
Analysis: The Packers would like to find a left tackle in the first round, but there is none available worth the pick in this scenario. They also can address their need at running back in the second or third round. Nose tackle is not a pressing need, but it's tough to find massive pluggers with some mobility like Jenkins.

He's a massive two-gap nose tackle with wide trunk, and he has adequate-to-good initial quickness and body control for a guy his size. He has tree trunks for arms and flashes the ability to lock out.

27 Justin Hunter*
Houston Texans (12-4)
COLLEGE: TennesseeAGE: 21HT: 6-4WT: 196POS: WR
Analysis: The Texans have other needs at offensive tackle, linebacker, nose tackle and safety, but I love Hunter's potential to work the sideline opposite Andre Johnson. The question is: Is he physical enough to play in the Texans' offense? He's long at 6-4 but lean at 196 pounds.

Hunter has impressive natural hand-eye coordination and a huge catching radius. He can catch over his head with ease, and he's smooth catching the ball on the run. Hunter also shows confidence attacking the football.

28 Xavier Rhodes*
Denver Broncos (13-3)
COLLEGE: Florida StateAGE: 22HT: 6-1½WT: 210POS: CB
Analysis: We're not as high on him as some others, but he has an outstanding size-speed combination and is at his best in press-man coverage.

29 Blidi Wreh-Wilson
New England Patriots (12-4)
COLLEGE: Connecticut AGE: 23HT: 6-0¾WT: 195POS: CB
Analysis: The Patriots could have a need in the secondary if they decide not to re-sign Aqib Talib. Wreh-Wilson, who has come on strong in the draft process, could be a nice fit here. Most don't have him in the first round, and he might not go this early after running the 40 in the 4.5-second range at combine.

But we think he's an underrated talent with size, body control, instincts and toughness against the run. He's just a really good football player. Also, he was selected as a team captain both as a junior and senior and was well respected by coaches and teammates. He's also extremely intelligent and accountable, and possesses a good work ethic.

30 Zach Ertz *
Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
COLLEGE: StanfordAGE: 21HT: 6-5WT: 249POS: TE
Analysis: Will Tony Gonzalez retire? Will the Falcons persuade him to come back? If he sticks with his plans to retire, Ertz could fit here. He'd have Hall of Fame shoes to fill, but the Falcons could help him develop. He's quick off the line of scrimmage, while showing the ability to pace his routes and flash subtle head fakes at the top of routes to freeze defenders.

If the Falcons don't go with Ertz, they could consider Washington CB Desmond Trufant, Texas A&M DE Damontre Moore, LSU DE Sam Montgomery and Alabama RB Eddie Lacy.

31 Margus Hunt
San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
COLLEGE: SMUAGE: 25HT: 6-8⅛WT: 277POS: DE
Analysis: The Niners need a cornerback, but there isn't one who would be worth taking here. Hunt is a project with a ton of upside. He's older, but he's a physical freak. At 6-8⅛ he ran a 4.6 40-yard dash.

In the final few game tapes of the 2012 season, I can see the light starting to come on. In San Francisco, he could develop at a good pace and wouldn't be forced into action too early.

If the Niners don't choose Hunt, they could look at safeties D.J. Swearinger or Matt Elam. Nose tackle Brandon Williams, a small-school prospect who is rising, wide receiver Quinton Patton or Trufant also could fit for the Niners.

32 Manti Te'o
Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
COLLEGE: Notre DameAGE: 22HT: 6-1¼WT: 241POS: LB
Analysis: The questions about his ability to play all three downs in the NFL were magnified by a 4.83 40 at the combine.

He has great instincts and plays faster than his 40 time. But whether he can hold up as an every-down player in the NFL is the question that a lot of teams will be mulling over -- especially those with ILB/MLB needs in the bottom third of first round, including the Giants, Bears, Texans and Ravens.

The Ravens also could consider Swearinger, Elam or John Cyprien at safety, Trufant at corner and center Travis Frederick.

Skooby · Mar 18, 2013

STAN JONES said:
2013 NFL draft - First breakdown of talent tiers - ESPN

Thin at the top, deep throughout
By Todd McShay

How does this class compare to 2012?

Three of the six prospects in Tier 1 last year played offensive skill positions -- two quarterbacks (Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III) and one running back (Trent Richardson). I also had QB Ryan Tannehill and WRs Justin Blackmon and Michael Floyd in Tiers 2 and 3, so six of 19 in the top three tiers were offensive skill players.

This year's group is quite a different story. There isn't a single offensive skill player who can be found in the top three tiers. In addition, Luck and Griffin had grades of 99 and 98, respectively. This year's top grade at this point is 97 (Luke Joeckel and Sharrif Floyd) and that's the ceiling.

This year's draft is getting little hype because of the void of first-round offensive playmakers. The reality is you don't want to be picking in the top five this year, particularly if you're in the market for a quarterback. But if you take Luck and Griffin out of the equation, there's not nearly the difference in talent level from 2012 to this year's class as most want to believe. In fact, from Tier 2 on, a case can be made in favor of 2013 having the superior talent.

Where this draft is particularly strong is along the offensive and defensive lines with four offensive tackles, two guards, five defensive tackles and three defensive ends in the top four tiers -- 14 of the top 25 rated prospects.

Day 2 is where the 2013 draft is especially strong with 82 prospects owning grades in Tiers 5-7 (compared with 66 in 2012). This is also where the offensive skill players and defensive backs should start flying off the board. Just take a look at Tiers 5, 6 and 7. They are dominated by cornerbacks (14), running backs (eight), wide receivers (eight), safeties (six) and tight ends (five).

That leaves us with the quarterbacks. This is the deepest and most jumbled group of Tier 5-7 quarterbacks that I've studied in a given year.

Keep in mind; the past three years we've seen an average of 3.3 quarterbacks selected in Round 1 compared with only 2.6 in Rounds 2 and 3 combined. We all know that quarterbacks get bumped up because of positional value, so it shouldn't surprise anyone if two or three wind up drafted in the first round.

But from a pure grade-value standpoint, there are seven quarterbacks that belong in Tiers 5-7 (Tyler Wilson, Ryan Nassib, Matt Barkley, Landry Jones, Tyler Bray, EJ Manuel, and Mike Glennon) -- and Geno Smith barely made the Tier 4 cut. And they come in all different flavors, so scheme and skill-set preference will play a big part in determining the order in which these guys are selected.

Teams in search of precision passers to fit variations of West Coast-style offenses probably will favor Wilson, Nassib and Barkley. Teams that feature more of a vertical passing attack will seek the stronger-arm prospects in Jones, Bray, Manuel and Glennon. And of the seven, Manuel is the only one with the size, mobility and experience to be considered a legitimate zone-read option threat in the NFL.

Here's my seven-tier breakdown of the top prospects, listed in order of draft grade. Non-seniors are noted with an asterisk.

Tier 1

These are the elite prospects, those who have the potential to come off the board in the top five overall picks.

OVR Player POS School HT WT Grade
1 Luke Joeckel* OT Texas A&M 6-6 306 97
2 Sharrif Floyd* DT Florida 6-2⅝ 297 97
3 Eric Fisher OT Central Michigan 6-7¼ 306 96
4 Star Lotulelei DT Utah 6-2½ 311 96

Tier 2

This tier is composed of players who are a notch below elite but are still top-10 quality.

OVR Player POS School HT WT Grade
5 Dee Milliner* CB Alabama 5-11⅞ 201 95
6 Ezekiel Ansah DE BYU 6-5¼ 271 95
7 Dion Jordan OLB Oregon 6-6¼ 248 95
8 Chance Warmack OG Alabama 6-2 317 95

Tier 3

The prospects will offer good value between picks 10 and 20.

OVR Player POS School HT WT Grade
9 Lane Johnson OT Oklahoma 6-6 303 94
10 Jonathan Cooper OG North Carolina 6-2⅛ 311 94
11 Barkevious Mingo* DE LSU 6-4¼ 241 94
12 Alec Ogletree* ILB Georgia 6-2½ 242 94
13 Kenny Vaccaro DS Texas 6-0 214 93
14 Sheldon Richardson* DT Missouri 6-2½ 294 93
15 Tavon Austin WR West Virginia 5-8½ 174 93
16 Jarvis Jones* OLB Georgia 6-2⅜ 245 93
17 Tyler Eifert TE Notre Dame 6-5½ 250 93

Tier 4

These prospects have the tools to be good value picks in the late-first round.

OVR Player POS School HT WT Grade
18 Bjoern Werner* DE Florida State 6-3¼ 266 92
19 Keenan Allen* WR California 6-2 206 91
20 Sylvester Williams DT North Carolina 6-2⅝ 313 91
21 D.J. Fluker* OT Alabama 6-4⅝ 339 91
22 Cordarrelle Patterson* WR Tennessee 6-1⅞ 216 90
23 Desmond Trufant CB Washington 5-11⅝ 190 90
24 Geno Smith QB West Virginia 6-2⅜ 218 90
25 John Jenkins DT Georgia 6-3⅝ 346 90
26 Manti Te'o ILB Notre Dame 6-1¼ 241 90

Tier 5

These are the players teams will begin targeting as value picks early in Round 2 should they fall out of Round 1.

OVR Player POS School HT WT Grade
27 Kawann Short DT Purdue 6-2⅞ 299 89
28 Justin Pugh* OG Syracuse 6-4½ 307 89
29 Blidi Wreh-Wilson CB Connecticut 6-0¾ 195 89
30 Sam Montgomery* DE LSU 6-3 262 89
31 Eddie Lacy* RB Alabama 5-11 231 89
32 Justin Hunter* WR Tennessee 6-4 196 89
33 Zach Ertz* TE Stanford 6-5 249 89
34 Menelik Watson* OT Florida State 6-5⅛ 310 88
35 Tyler Wilson QB Arkansas 6-2⅛ 215 88
36 Matt Barkley QB USC 6-2½ 227 87
37 Johnathan Hankins* DT Ohio State 6-2⅞ 320 87
38 Damontre Moore* DE Texas A&M 6-4½ 250 87
39 Quinton Patton WR Louisiana Tech 6-0 204 86
40 Xavier Rhodes* CB Florida State 6-1½ 210 86
41 Margus Hunt DE SMU 6-8⅛ 277 86

Tier 6

This tier contains prospects who are worthy of mid-to-late second-round consideration.

OVR Player POS School HT WT Grade
42 Ryan Nassib QB Syracuse 6-2⅛ 227 85
43 DeAndre Hopkins* WR Clemson 6-1 214 85
44 Travis Frederick* OC Wisconsin 6-3⅝ 312 85
45 Kevin Minter* ILB LSU 5-11¾ 246 84
46 Cornellius Carradine DE Florida State 6-4⅛ 276 84
47 Gavin Escobar* TE San Diego State 6-5⅞ 254 84
48 Sio Moore OLB Connecticut 6-0 245 84
49 Brandon Williams DT Missouri Southern State 6-1¼ 335 84
50 DJ Hayden CB Houston 5-11⅛ 191 84
51 Landry Jones QB Oklahoma 6-4⅛ 225 84
52 Aaron Dobson WR Marshall 6-2¾ 210 84
53 Johnthan Banks CB Mississippi State 6-2 185 83
54 D.J. Swearinger S South Carolina 5-10½ 208 83
55 Jesse Williams DT Alabama 6-3⅜ 323 83
56 Terrance Williams WR Baylor 6-2 208 83
57 Kyle Long OG Oregon 6-6⅛ 313 83
58 Jamar Taylor CB Boise State 5-10⅝ 192 82
59 Larry Warford OG Kentucky 6-3 332 82
60 Khaseem Greene OLB Rutgers 6-0¾ 241 82
61 Terron Armstead OT Arkansas-Pine Bluff 6-4¾ 306 82
62 Robert Woods* WR USC 6-0⅜ 201 82
63 Matt Elam* S Florida 5-9⅞ 208 81
64 Datone Jones DE UCLA 6-3⅞ 283 81
65 Arthur Brown OLB Kansas State 6-0⅜ 241 81
66 EJ Manuel QB Florida State 6-4⅝ 237 81
67 John Cyprien S FIU 6-0¼ 217 80
68 Mike Glennon QB North Carolina State 6-7⅛ 225 80
69 Jordan Reed* TE Florida 6-2½ 236 80

Tier 7

These players rank as solid third-round prospects.

OVR Player POS School HT WT Grade
70 Akeem Spence* DT Illinois 6-0⅝ 307 79
71 Montee Ball RB Wisconsin 5-10½ 214 79
72 Shamarko Thomas DS Syracuse 5-8⅞ 213 79
73 Travis Kelce TE Cincinnati 6-4⅞ 255 79
74 Eric Reid* DS LSU 6-1¼ 213 78
75 Robert Alford DC Southeastern Louisiana 5-10⅛ 188 78
76 Corey Lemonier* DE Auburn 6-3⅜ 255 78
77 Bennie Logan* DT LSU 6-1⅞ 309 78
78 Kiko Alonso ILB Oregon 6-3⅜ 238 78
79 Tyler Bray* QB Tennessee 6-6⅛ 232 78
80 Vance McDonald TE Rice 6-4⅛ 267 78
81 Andre Ellington RB Clemson 5-9¼ 199 78
82 Dallas Thomas OG Tennessee 6-5½ 306 78
83 Logan Ryan* DC Rutgers 5-11⅛ 191 77
84 Le'Veon Bell* RB Michigan State 6-1⅜ 230 77
85 Jamie Collins OLB Southern Miss 6-3½ 250 77
86 Bacarri Rambo DS Georgia 6-0½ 211 77
87 Markus Wheaton WR Oregon State 5-11 189 77
88 Brian Schwenke OC California 6-3 314 76
89 Brian Winters OG Kent State 6-3⅝ 318 76
90 Brandon Jenkins OLB Florida State 6-2½ 251 76
91 B.W. Webb DC William & Mary 5-10¼ 184 76
92 Shawn Williams DS Georgia 5-11⅞ 213 75
93 Christine Michael RB Texas A&M 5-10 220 75
94 Oday Aboushi OG Virginia 6-5⅜ 308 75
95 Marc Anthony DC California 5-11⅜ 196 75
96 Stedman Bailey* WR West Virginia 5-10¼ 193 75
97 Kevin Reddikk ILB North Carolina 6-1⅜ 243 75
98 Alex Okafor DE Texas 6-4½ 264 74
99 Barrett Jones OC Alabama 6-4½ 306 74
100 DeVonte Holloman OLB South Carolina 6-1⅜ 243 74
101 Steve Williams* DC California 5-8⅞ 181 74
102 Jordan Mills OT Louisiana Tech 6-5 316 74
103 Darius Slay DC Mississippi State 5-11⅞ 192 73
104 Jawan Jamison* RB Rutgers 5-7⅜ 203 73
105 Mike Buchanan DE Illinois 6-5⅜ 255 73
106 David Amerson* DC North Carolina State 6-1 205 72
107 William Gholston* DE Michigan State 6-6¼ 281 72
108 Phillip Thomas DS Fresno State 6-0½ 208 72
109 Mike Gillislee RB Florida 5-11⅛ 208 72
110 Ricky Wagner OT Wisconsin 6-5⅞ 308 72
111 Jordan Poyer DC Oregon State 5-11⅞ 191 71
112 Malliciah Goodman DE Clemson 6-3⅝ 276 71
113 Brennan Williams OT North Carolina 6-5⅝ 318 71
114 Giovani Bernard* RB North Carolina 5-8⅜ 202 71
115 Tavarres King WR Georgia 6-0¼ 189 71

dtownreppin214 · Mar 18, 2013

@Skooby

Jay Bilas Bracket - In-depth pick-by-pick 2013 NCAA tournament advice - ESPN

Skooby · Mar 18, 2013

Finding gems and finding flaws

With the draft process in full swing -- from all-star games to the NFL combine to pro days -- there are a few guys who aren't generating a lot of buzz. But after watching their tape, I think these guys deserve some recognition.

On the flip side, there are a few big names out there, guys who have been in our Top 32, who still leave me with questions.

First let's take a look at a couple of undervalued prospects.

Players you should know

D.J. Hayden, CB, Houston (Scouts Inc. Grade: 84)

There's a big reason no one is talking about Hayden. In practice this past November, Hayden tore his inferior vena cava, a major vein that feeds the heart, in a collision with a teammate in practice. He was in the hospital for six days with an injury that typically holds about a 95 percent fatality rate and that is common in high-speed car accidents. It's a minor miracle that he survived the injury.

He hasn't been able to work out and run for teams, and that's why he hasn't received a lot of buzz during the draft process. Most reports from scouts I've talked to are that he is on pace to be ready for action in the fall. He's starting to do a little light jogging, but he hasn't been able to test. However, his tape ranks near the top of all the cornerback prospects I've studied so far.

Against UCLA, you see a player who is instinctive, fluid and quick. He also shows an explosive closing burst and can make up ground in a hurry. A clear example came in the second half when he was initially beaten on a post route but was able to transition quickly with a speed-turn and track the receiver to make a play on the ball. Throw in a pair a of interceptions when he showed strong awareness and eyes to key Bruins QB Brett Hundley, come off of his primary assignment and track the ball. Hayden turned in a complete game.

The UCLA tape was not the only one when he flashed playmaking instincts. Against UTEP, Hayden jumped a slant route for an interception deep in his own territory before showing an extra gear to cut across the grain and run away from pursuit on his way to a 97-yard return for a touchdown. It was one of the more impressive plays I have seen during my film study this year. I also like his willingness to step up and set the edge in run support, which is a critical component scouts look for with the position.

Hayden checked in at the combine at 5-foot-11 and 191 pounds and has above-average size. Whether it's in the third round or he falls to Day 3, the team that takes Hayden will be getting a talented player and eventual starter. He's an early-second-round talent on tape, but because of the injury, a team might be able to get him in the third or fourth round. At that point, he'd be an absolute steal.

Chase Thomas, OLB, Stanford (Scouts Inc. Grade: 64)

Thomas didn't work out well at the combine. He checked in at 6-3¼, 244 pounds, ran only a 4.91 40-yard dash, had a 32-inch vertical and had a 9-foot-5 broad jump. Those pedestrian numbers, combined with the average athleticism you see on tape, more than likely will drop Thomas into the range of the late third or early fourth round.

Thomas certainly doesn't have elite physical tools, but he's a flat-out football player. Thomas is an instinctive player who plays with a nonstop motor. He sees everything in front of him and is constantly a step ahead in reading and reacting to plays. In addition, Thomas has shown a lot of versatility lining up all over the front seven. He can play in a two-point or with his hand in the dirt when aligned off the edge and has shown ability to line up at the inside linebacker position in sub-packages.

As a pass-rusher, Thomas anticipates the snap count well to get a quick first step and comes off with proper leverage as a pass-rusher. He also has very active and quick hands to keep blockers off of his frame. Thomas doesn't have great torso flexibility to bend the edge and shave the corner, but he is very crafty at dipping his inside shoulder to get underneath offensive tackles' pads and has an inside change-up move. In addition, he excels at running a tight loop and quickly putting pressure on interior offensive linemen when executing the inside twist.

Thomas is constantly seen around the ball on tape and has the production to match. He has had 16 sacks in the past two years and 33 tackles for losses. That production combined with his instincts, motor and high character should allow him to bring strong return to a team that pulls the trigger on him in the early middle-round range.

Miguel Maysonet, RB, Stony Brook (Scouts Inc. Grade: 52)

Maysonet is a Day 3 type player at this point who is flying heavily under the radar. At 5-9, 209, he is built low to the ground and runs with above-average power. Maysonet shows natural vision and good instincts and does a great job of setting up and using his blocks. He runs with a wide base and a low center of gravity, which gives him great balance as a runner and provides him with lateral quickness and agility. Maysonet is also a strong finisher who keeps his legs churning to manufacture hidden yardage at the end of runs.

The play that paints a picture of the determination Maysonet displays came against Syracuse this past fall. He had a highlight-type run in which he hurdled a guy, got hit and continued to run for a TD. I believe Maysonet will be one of the bigger Day 3 steals, a player who can become a quality No. 2 and has the potential to develop into a feature back in the NFL.

Players with questions

Alex Okafor, DE, Texas (Scouts Inc. Grade: 74)

Okafor is 6-4½, 264 pounds and has long enough arms. He has put up quality production numbers in his career -- 12.5 sacks in 2012 and six as a junior. But if you look at him on tape and look at those sacks this year, it can be a little deceiving. He had two sacks against Ole Miss and West Virginia as well as a season-high 4.5 sacks against Oregon State. Those offensive lines were a bit underwhelming on tape, though, and when he faced more quality competition, he was held in check for the most part.

The one game that sticks out to me was the Oklahoma game. The lack of production in that game was low, with one assisted tackle and one pass breakup. And the Longhorns got trounced 63-21. Besides the lack of production, what concerned me the most was the lack of effort Okafor showed against the Sooners. That's the biggest issue. He looked uninterested, and I didn't see a great effort from a senior in the Red River rivalry, the biggest game on the schedule for the Horns. I didn't see him going a million miles per hour, and that's a problem. You want to see effort all the time.

I also see some inconsistencies firing off the ball and playing with proper pad level as a pass-rusher. There are flashes in which he converts speed to power and shows the ability to dip and bend the edge. But with those flashes comes the question of why we aren't seeing this type of effort and ability on every play.

There's been talk of his being an early-second-round, late-first-round pick, but I feel better for him as a third-rounder. I don't think his tape matches up with the hype right now.

Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State (Scouts Inc. Grade: 86)

I might be in the minority with Rhodes, who has been one of the hotter names coming out of the combine. He's 6-1½, 210, and he has nearly 34-inch arms, which is enormous for a corner and three inches longer than the average arm length for a cornerback for the past five years. His wingspan is almost five inches longer than average, as well. Then you go to how he tested in Indianapolis. He had a 4.43 in the 40, a 40-inch vertical and an 11-foot broad jump. This an exceptional size and speed combination for a cornerback prospect, stuff you just can't teach.

But after watching five games of coaches' copy tape, I came away a bit underwhelmed. His footwork and technique were poor at times, which caused him to become off-balanced. This is not a huge deal because it is correctable at the next level with proper coaching.

The bigger issue I have is with his instincts and awareness. I saw a bit of what I call a "process" guy, meaning he needs to see it before he reacts. This causes him to be late reacting and breaking on the ball at times. In addition, although he has an exceptional size and length combination to play the ball downfield, he is often late locating and reacting to the ball. This happened on several occasions throughout my film study, particularly against NC State and Clemson.

In Rhodes' defense, this is just his third year playing the position because he came to Florida State as a receiver before switching over to defense. And if you're projecting that he will improve in these areas, it's hard to argue that there is a better cornerback prospect in this year's class with better physical tools. However, as an evaluator, I've always believed in trusting what you see on tape. That said, with Rhodes, I have more questions than answers, which I why I feel he is more of a Day 2 type prospect.

Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M (Scouts Inc. Grade: 87)

Moore stands at 6-4½, 250, and he has a strong motor. He plays hard, and he chases plays down across the field, which is necessary for a prospect. However, there are some concerns that stand out on tape. First and foremost, the lack of hand usage is glaring. He does not appear natural with his hands and allows blockers into frame far too much. This also negates his ability as a counter puncher once initially engaged. Also, I failed to see a flexible or explosive athlete as a pass-rusher. He struggles when having to bend and shave the edge, and I did not see that upper-body snap necessary when converting speed to power.

It's certainly hard to ignore his production this past fall with 12.5 sacks and 21 tackles for a losses. However, I threw on the coaches' copy tape against Florida, a game in which he had a season-high three sacks. You could argue that each one was an effort sack. These were partly thanks to coverage and partly thanks to a young quarterback in Jeff Driskel, who has had a tendency to hold on to the ball far too long.

Simply put, Moore failed to win enough one-on-one battles on tape for me to warrant anything higher than a mid-second to third-round grade.

Skooby · Mar 18, 2013

STAN JONES said:
2013 NFL free agency -- Offseason plans for the Baltimore Ravens - ESPN

Offseason Playbook: Ravens

In a new offseason series, Insider takes an in-depth look at NFL teams before free agency begins on March 12. What is each team's philosophy on offense and defense, biggest needs and one player who could make for an ideal signing in free agency?

Team philosophies

Offense -- As much publicity as this pass offense generates, running the football is still very important for the Ravens. They can show a physical two-back look with fullback Vonta Leach and running back Ray Rice, or they can go to one-back sets and spread things out. They have gone from a power man-blocking offensive line to more zone schemes and even an occasional stretch play. Rice is an excellent one cut-and-go back.

The Ravens changed coordinators at midseason, with Jim Caldwell replacing Cam Cameron, and it produced significant changes and positive results. We saw more passes on first down, more draw plays, more vertical passes between the hashes and a lot of no-huddle, which allows Joe Flacco to call his own plays. The passing game will attack defenses on all three levels, and they love the high ball where their receivers can elevate. Flacco is excellent on play-action and with the pump fake. Look for more two-tight end sets in 2013 with motion and flexes, along with a creative screen game.

Defense -- Even though coaches seem to come and go in this defense, the philosophy remains the same -- an aggressive and attack-oriented 3-4 scheme. They will show a lot of exotic blitzes and pre-snap movement to confuse offenses and even throw in some 4-3 and 4-6 fronts on occasion. Because of injuries in 2012, they also played their "dollar" defense a lot, which had two defensive linemen, three linebackers and six defensive backs. All of the Ravens' gambling and movement with their front seven is because they believe in aggressive man-to-man coverage schemes and they really trust their corners on an island. On occasion they will sprinkle in some zone blitzes and even drop a defensive lineman into coverage to further confuse opposing quarterbacks. Because of a lack of depth at linebacker but good depth at corner, we could see more 4-3 fronts and sub-packages in 2013.

Team needs

1. Inside linebacker -- This is a huge position of concern for this organization right now. With the retirement of Ray Lewis, a potential free agency loss of Dannell Ellerbe and Jameel McClain trying to come back from a significant injury, a long-time strength of this defense could quickly turn into a real weakness. The interior of their defensive line has issues holding up versus the run, which puts added pressure on the inside linebackers to step up and fill. The limited depth and lack of a potential star in this group, outside of Ellerbe, underscores why the Ravens really need to re-sign him. If they can't do that or find another potential starter, they might be forced to play more 4-3 fronts.

2. Outside linebacker -- The Ravens got more production out of this position than expected in 2012 with the emergence of Paul Kruger as an edge pass-rusher and the ability of Terrell Suggs to come back quicker than expected from injury. But there are real concerns on the horizon. Age and health are issues for Suggs, backup Courtney Upshaw is more of a run defender than edge rusher and Kruger's unexpected success will probably cause some teams to offer him a lot of money on the open market. Can they squeeze another year or two out of Suggs and somehow find enough money to keep Kruger? In this 3-4 defense, the outside linebackers' pass-rush pressure is critical.

3. Offensive line -- A midseason adjustment in personnel really seemed to upgrade this unit and this line played better down the stretch than expected, but that doesn't mask its deficiencies. Left tackle Bryant McKinnie is an aging UFA who played adequately in 2012, but conditioning and weight always are issues with him, and the Ravens need a tackle with better feet and range. This is exacerbated by the recent retirement of center Matt Birk. They have two young guys, Gino Gradkowski and Jah Reid, but it's questionable whether are they ready to step in and block in a passing offense that likes to throw off of a lot of seven-step drops.

4. Defensive line -- Haloti Ngata is the only real impact player in this group, but staying healthy has been a challenge for him, and the Ravens haven't been able to count on the guys backing him up. However, they do have four young defensive ends, so maybe there is something to develop.

5. Wide receiver -- If they can restructure Anquan Boldin's deal, this need would decrease in importance, but that will be a challenge for the front office. A pass offense like the Ravens' will always be in the market for a speed receiver.

6. Safety -- Even if they are able to keep free safety Ed Reed from departing in free agency, he is probably only a year away from retirement. Starting strong safety Bernard Pollard is such a physical player that injuries are always a concern.

-- Gary Horton

Key free-agent move

Paul Kruger, OLB, UFA

Whether it's on a long-term deal or via the franchise tag, the Ravens will find a way to retain Flacco.

After they take care of that business, their attention needs to turn to the versatile outside linebacker and developing star Kruger, a double-digit sacker in 2012 who came on when the team needed him most. Kruger can play on the edge and thrive in sub defense, and the Ravens lack an elite pass-rushing threat on their roster without him. Suggs is effective, but he's no longer the consistent rush presence that made him such a defensive terror earlier in his career.

Kruger won't come cheap, as pass-rushers are coveted on the open market, but his ability to beat an opposing tackle with his athleticism, hands and body control make him a dangerous rusher that will complement both Suggs and Upshaw, each edge-setters who can play on the strong side of the defensive formation.

With Lardarius Webb set to return from an ACL tear in 2013, the Ravens will have their best cover cornerback back in the fold. That will allow defensive coordinator Dean Pees to pick up the intensity with his play calling and maximize Kruger's ability to pressure the quarterback.

Skooby · Mar 18, 2013

dtownreppin214 said:
@Skooby

Jay Bilas Bracket - In-depth pick-by-pick 2013 NCAA tournament advice - ESPN

Bilas: Pick-by-pick bracket analysis
By Jay Bilas

West Region

Round of 64

No. 1 Gonzaga over No. 16 Southern: No 16-seed has ever beaten a No. 1 seed, and it will certainly not happen here. Gonzaga is too big and too good. The Zags advance to take on the winner of Pittsburgh and Wichita State.

No. 8 Pittsburgh over No. 9 Wichita State: Pittsburgh goes 10 deep with no stars. The Panthers are a very good offensive rebounding team, ranking fourth in the nation in getting more than 40 percent of their own misses. Pitt does not shoot free throws well but is in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Wichita State is also an outstanding rebounding team and has the chops to hang with Pitt on the glass. The Shockers rank among the top 10 defensive rebounding teams in the country. Because Pitt is better on the offensive end, The Bilastrator favors Pittsburgh, and the Panthers will move on to face Gonzaga.

No. 5 Wisconsin over No. 12 Ole Miss: The Badgers are among the top defensive teams in the country, rating third in defensive efficiency. Wisconsin does not force turnovers but keeps you from getting clean looks, offensive rebounds and free throw attempts. That's the formula, along with protecting the ball on the offensive end -- the Badgers are fifth in the nation in turnover percentage, coughing the ball up on only 15 percent of possessions. The Badgers get the shot they want while denying the shot you want -- this is Bo Ryan's way to play. Mississippi is good offensively, but Wisconsin's defense is stronger. Wisconsin could certainly lose in this round, but Bo Ryan rarely loses to this type of team. The Badgers move on.

No. 4 Kansas State over No. 13 Boise State/La Salle: The Broncos of Boise State will get past La Salle and play Kansas State. Boise State has an outstanding scorer in sophomore Derrick Marks, and he can get points in a hurry. Boise State can shoot it from deep, doesn't turn the ball over and limits you to one challenged shot. Kansas State is solid offensively and does a nice job on the offensive glass, getting 38.5 percent of its own misses. Kansas State has a dynamic wing in Rodney McGruder and has size up front to work the glass. But Kansas State allows too many second shots, which could be an issue in this tournament. Still, Kansas State's offense is better than Boise State's, and better than its defense, too. Kansas State moves on to play Wisconsin.

No. 3 New Mexico over No. 14 Harvard: New Mexico is an excellent defensive team that was record-setting in the Mountain West. Steve Alford's team guards people from the opening tap and does not let up. This is not a great offensive team and doesn't shoot the ball particularly well, but New Mexico doesn't foul, and only nine teams in the country get to the line more often than the Lobos. Tony Snell and Kendall Williams are the two best players, but big man Alex Kirk can step out and knock down open shots. Harvard is a good moving and cutting team with a terrific point guard in Siyani Chambers, but the Crimson do not rebound the ball or take care of it as well as the Lobos. Harvard has a turnover percentage of 21.1 percent, but when Harvard does get a shot, the Crimson hit 3-point shots at a high rate (40 percent), eighth in the nation. New Mexico is too strong defensively and will advance.

No. 6 Arizona over No. 11 Belmont: Belmont beat Stanford, pounded Middle Tennessee, and took apart South Dakota State and Ohio this season. The Bruins are the top team in the nation in 2-point field goal percentage at 57 percent, and are No. 2 in the nation in effective field goal percentage. The Wildcats are solid on the glass and defensively but have struggled guarding the 3-point line. Belmont guards Kerron Johnson and Ian Clark can make baskets, but Arizona should have the frontcourt strength to overcome Belmont's shooting prowess. Arizona moves on to take on New Mexico.

No. 10 Iowa State over No. 7 Notre Dame: The Irish are bigger and stronger up front than Iowa State, but the Cyclones are better shooters who can open things up and hit 3-point shots from every spot on the floor. Notre Dame has played well of late, but Iowa State can give the Irish a lot of trouble. Iowa State is a top-10 offensive team and will beat Notre Dame.

No. 2 Ohio State over No. 15 Iona: The Gaels have Lamont "Momo" Jones, who transferred in after leaving Arizona, and Sean Armand is a great perimeter shooter. Iona is ranked 22nd in overall offense, but a sorry 257th in defense. There is no question that Iona can score. But the Gaels cannot stop anyone and will not stop Ohio State. The Buckeyes move on.

Round of 32

No. 1 Gonzaga over No. 8 Pittsburgh: Gonzaga is a very good defensive team with size and depth, but is not always a good rebounding team. When you play Pitt, you have to accept the physical challenge and go to the glass. The Zags won't be bullied on the glass and should beat Pittsburgh because they can score from every spot on the floor and are very hard to guard.

No. 5 Wisconsin over No. 4 Kansas State: This is where Wisconsin's great defense and tempo control gets to Kansas State. Because Bruce Weber spent so much time in the Big Ten, he knows Bo Ryan and his tendencies. Here is a news flash: Wisconsin does not run the swing offense anymore. The Badgers do a great job of moving, cutting and screening, especially ball screens and isolating Ryan Evans on the left block to get him one-on-one in the post. Kansas State can guard anyone, but I think Wisconsin will win this one.

No. 3 New Mexico over No. 6 Arizona: The Lobos are very good on the defensive end and have the versatility to be able to guard Solomon Hill and match up with him. New Mexico could win this one by shooting free throws and getting to the line.

No. 2 Ohio State over No. 10 Iowa State: The Buckeyes have been scoring better and providing help to Deshaun Thomas. If Aaron Craft is assertive and looking to score, this is a much better team. The Buckeyes are very good on the defensive end and can stay with Fred Hoiberg's shooters. Iowa State guard Korie Lucious has Final Four experience and Tyrus McGee is one of the best shooters in the country, but Ohio State wins.

Sweet 16

No. 1 Gonzaga over No. 5 Wisconsin: This game is about scoring against a quality defense. Gonzaga is far better on the defensive end than it used to be, and either Elias Harris or Mike Hart can guard Ryan Evans. Wisconsin forward Jared Berggren is the real key, and it will be interesting to see whether Kelly Olynyk can guard him. I don't believe that Wisconsin has any one guy that can keep Olynyk in check. Gonzaga will advance.

No. 2 Ohio State over No. 3 New Mexico: For the Lobos, facing Ohio State will be like looking in a mirror. The Buckeyes can guard people and so can New Mexico. But Ohio State scores with greater ease than New Mexico.

Elite Eight

No. 2 Ohio State over No. 1 Gonzaga: The Zags match up well with the Buckeyes, and Elias Harris can guard Deshaun Thomas and make him work for his points. If Thomas is forced to take tough 2s and not open 3-point shots, Gonzaga has a chance. This is a game that will be controlled by Ohio State's defense, especially Aaron Craft and Lenzelle Smith. Ohio State will clip the No. 1 seed in the Elite Eight and go to the Final Four.

East Region

Round of 64

No. 1 Indiana over No. 16 LIU Brooklyn/James Madison: The Hoosiers are simply too strong to lose to LIU, even though the Blackbirds are led by Jamal Olasewere and Jason Brickman, the former being player of the year in his league while the latter is one of the five best passers in the country. Indiana is too good on the offensive end to be the first No. 1 seed to lose.

No. 8 NC State over No. 9 Temple: The Wolfpack are a great transition team but an anemic defensive team. Even though NC State forward Richard Howell is banged up, The Bilastrator believes the Wolfpack will beat the Owls.

No. 5 UNLV over No. 12 California: The Rebels play a quick tempo and have one of the top 15 defenses in the nation. UNLV does not force turnovers but will block shots, led by Khem Birch. Anthony Bennett is an outstanding scorer who can drill it inside or out, and Bryce Dejean-Jones has terrific talent at the wing position. The Rebels are not a great offensive team and turn the ball over one out of every five possessions. Cal has Allen Crabbe, who can get you 30 in a game, but the Bears do not have any swagger, losing to Stanford and Utah in their last two games. UNLV will move on.

No. 4 Syracuse over No. 13 Montana: The Grizzlies got a good seed but drew a team that is hot and confident after getting its mojo back in Madison Square Garden. The Orange were struggling to score but have now received solid performances from starters James Southerland and Michael Carter-Williams, along with Trevor c00ney and Baye Keita off the bench.

No. 3 Marquette over No. 14 Davidson: This is an upset special, as Davidson is good enough to beat Marquette. The Golden Eagles have lost to teams like Cincinnati, Wisconsin Green Bay and Butler (on a last-second shot). Davidson is experienced and very good on the offensive end. But Marquette has big guys in Davante Gardner and Chris Otule who will be a handful for Bob McKillop's team. The question is whether Marquette can punch the ball into the lane. I believe it will be able to do that, and I believe Marquette will advance.

No. 6 Butler over No. 11 Bucknell: The Bison control tempo and do not turn the ball over, and they have a great player in Mike Muscala, a big guy who can really score in the post. Muscala is not alone, as Bryson Johnson and Cameron Ayers are good shooters to complement Muscala. Bucknell is No. 2 in the nation in turnover percentage and doesn't allow second shots. Butler has Andrew Smith to match up with Muscala, and Roosevelt Jones and Rotnei Clarke will be tough covers for Bucknell. Against a pressing team, Butler can be had. In a game against Bucknell, I favor Brad Stevens and Butler.

No. 7 Illinois over No. 10 Colorado: The Buffaloes are the better defensive team, with Spencer Dinwiddie at a wing and Andre Roberson on the defensive glass. Dinwiddie is 6-foot-6 and can match up with Brandon Paul. Illinois' Tyler Griffey and D.J. Richardson can also knock down perimeter shots. A key guy is Illinois point guard Tracy Abrams, who can control the ball and still score. The Illini have beaten some outstanding teams while relying upon hitting perimeter shots. Illinois will have a tough time on the glass with Colorado, but Illinois should advance to the next round.

No. 2 Miami over No. 15 Pacific: The Hurricanes are playing their best basketball, with Shane Larkin controlling the ball and Durand Scott as the best defender in the ACC (who also put up 32 points in the ACC semis). Pacific is a good team but will not have nearly enough firepower to beat Miami.

Round of 32

No. 1 Indiana over No. 8 NC State: The Wolfpack love to get out in transition, but Indiana is much-improved offensively and should come away with a win. The Hoosiers match up well at every spot, but Indiana has a freshman point guard going against Lorenzo Brown, and that will be the most important matchup of the day. Indiana has to take NC State out of its running game to win, and the Hoosiers will do that.

No. 4 Syracuse over No. 5 UNLV: The Orange zone will be too much for UNLV. Syracuse can recover late to UNLV's shooters because the Rebels shoot 32.7 percent on 3s, 227th in the nation. Syracuse has its confidence back after a great Big East tournament and should beat UNLV.

No. 3 Marquette over No. 6 Butler: The Bulldogs beat Marquette in November in Maui on a last-second heave by Rotnei Clarke at the buzzer. Marquette is far better now, although I am not sure that is true of Butler. Buzz Williams has a goal of 49 paint touches per game, and the Golden Eagles shoot about 59 percent on paint-touch possessions, which is a great metric. Marquette will find a way to beat Butler and advance.

No. 2 Miami over No. 7 Illinois: The Hurricanes will have some matchup problems against the Illini, who can spread you out and shoot 3s or drive a close-out. Miami had some problems guarding North Carolina with a smaller lineup, and the same should be true versus Illinois. But Miami is very good defensively and Durand Scott and Shane Larkin have an advantage over Brandon Paul and Tracy Abrams. Miami will move forward.

Sweet 16

No. 1 Indiana over No. 4 Syracuse: The Orange zone can give Indiana some problems, especially with the length of Syracuse up front. But Indiana is a very good shooting team, and Indiana will be able to attack the zone from deep and with penetration from Victor Oladipo. The Hoosiers are good at rebounding their own misses, as well. Indiana wins a close game.

No. 2 Miami over No. 3 Marquette: The Hurricanes will have to keep Marquette out of the paint, and Miami can put Marquette's big men in ball-screen action and move them around. With Shane Larkin and Kenny Kadji running high ball screens and Reggie Johnson going body to body with Davante Gardner and Chris Otule, Miami should advance to the Elite Eight.

Elite Eight

No. 1 Indiana over No. 2 Miami: The Hoosiers are the better offensive team, but Miami is the more physical team. Between Cody Zeller running the floor and getting offensive rebounds and Victor Oladipo attacking on both ends, Indiana has more offensive power to match against Miami's defense. Indiana wins and goes to the Final Four.

Skooby · Mar 18, 2013

dtownreppin214 said:
@Skooby

Jay Bilas Bracket - In-depth pick-by-pick 2013 NCAA tournament advice - ESPN

Midwest Region

Round of 64

No. 1 Louisville over No. 16 North Carolina A&T: The Cardinals are the best defensive team in the nation and will overwhelm the No. 16 seed. Louisville wins the second-round game and moves on to play the winner of Colorado State and Missouri.

No. 8 Colorado State over No. 9 Missouri: The Tigers have more talent, but Colorado State has seniors who defend and rebound. Colorado State is the best rebounding team in the country and a very good defensive team. Colton Iverson is a good post player, and Pierce Hornung attacks the defensive glass. Colorado State will get past Missouri, whose hopes are pinned on the steady play of Phil Pressey, who has to make good decisions the entire game. Colorado State wins.

No. 5 Oklahoma State over No. 12 Oregon: The Cowboys have a top-10 defense, and the play of freshman Marcus Smart will be the difference. Smart plays beyond his years, and Markel Brown is a special talent who is underappreciated. Oklahoma State does not shoot from the perimeter, with the exception of Phil Forte, but the Cowboys defend. Oregon is an excellent defensive team that does a solid job on the glass, but the Ducks turn it over on 21 percent of their possessions, 251st in the country. Oklahoma State will move on to play the winner of Saint Louis and New Mexico State.

No. 4 Saint Louis over No. 13 New Mexico State: New Mexico State is solid on the defensive end and gets to the free throw line, but the Aggies are loose with the ball and turn it over. Saint Louis is excellent on the defensive end and takes great care of the ball. The Billikens are men, and Kwamain Mitchell is an excellent guard, while Cody Ellis and Rob Loe can step away and hit shots. Dwayne Evans is Saint Louis' best player and a matchup problem. The Billikens advance to play Oklahoma State.

No. 3 Michigan State over No. 14 Valparaiso: The Spartans have more interior strength with Derrick Nix and Adreian Payne, and should dominate in the paint. But Valpo has Ryan Broekhoff, who can step away and hit perimeter shots. It won't be enough, though. Michigan State will advance.

No. 6 Memphis over No. 11 Saint Mary's/Middle Tennessee: The Memphis Tigers have not been tested, but this is an athletic team that can defend and rebound. Memphis has not won NCAA tournament games under Josh Pastner, but this will be the year. Memphis will advance regardless of who wins the play-in game.

No. 10 Cincinnati over No. 7 Creighton: The Jays can score, and Doug McDermott has the ability to get 40 in any given game. He can score in the post or step away and play pick-and-pop. Cincinnati is not a proficient offensive team, but Sean Kilpatrick, Cashmere Wright and JaQuon Parker can all score. It is important for Cincinnati to dominate the glass. Cincinnati should win a close game, as the Bearcats' defense prevails.

No. 2 Duke over No. 15 Albany: Duke is healthy and has been down the road of a No. 2 seed before. Albany is turnover-prone and doesn't have a scorer like Lehigh's C.J. McCollum, who upended the Blue Devils last year in this round. Duke will advance.

Round of 32

No. 1 Louisville over No. 8 Colorado State: The Cardinals' full-court pressure will speed the game and take away any rebounding advantage Colorado State might have. Louisville is too strong. The Cardinals win as guards Russ Smith, Peyton Siva and Luke Hancock dominate the game.

No. 4 Saint Louis over No. 5 Oklahoma State: The Billikens will control the ball and control the pace of the game, and move on to face Louisville in the Sweet 16.

No. 3 Michigan State over No. 6 Memphis: The Spartans are better in the paint, although the athleticism of the Tigers will give Michigan State fits. Michigan State advances to play the winner of Duke and Cincinnati.

No. 2 Duke over No. 10 Cincinnati: Duke can and will score, so the Bearcats will have to match Duke point for point. But Cincinnati will not be able to muster enough offense to beat Duke, which is by far the better offensive team. Duke moves on because it can score from all five spots on the floor, while Cincinnati can score from only three spots.

Sweet 16

No. 1 Louisville over No. 4 Saint Louis: This is the nightmare scenario for Louisville. Saint Louis is the worst possible matchup for Louisville because it's tough to turn the Billikens over and speed them up. But the Cardinals are so strong at the guard spots, and with Gorgui Dieng in the paint, that they will win and advance to the Elite Eight.

No. 3 Michigan State over No. 2 Duke: The Blue Devils can really shoot it, and they have a face-up 4 man who can shoot it and spread the floor. But Michigan State can match Ryan Kelly with Adreian Payne, and Derrick Nix can guard Mason Plumlee with his size and build down low. Michigan State can match Duke on the perimeter, but the real advantage will be on the glass. The Spartans have to take care of the ball and hit the backboard to win -- and they will win.

Elite Eight

No. 1 Louisville over No. 3 Michigan State: Louisville plays a zone defense that changes to man-to-man toward the end of the clock or when the ball goes inside. The Cardinals create turnovers and a chaotic game, and they will win and move to the Final Four.

South Region

Round of 64

No. 1 Kansas over No. 16 Western Kentucky: The Jayhawks have Jeff Withey in the paint, and the Hilltoppers will not get anything inside the arc. Kansas will win and move on.

No. 8 North Carolina and No. 9 Villanova: Both teams play small lineups, but Villanova has more capable big guys. North Carolina is a good team that has really improved over the course of the season, and Ryan Arcidiacono is a tough player who has earned the respect of his opponents. North Carolina is the better 3-point shooting team, and should move on.

No. 5 VCU over No. 12 Akron: The Rams force the most turnovers and get the most steals of any team in the nation. With a full team and a point guard, Akron would be a good choice to move on, but the Zips are without Alex Abreu and will have too much trouble breaking the press. VCU advances.

No. 4 Michigan over No. 13 South Dakota State: Nate Wolters is a Steve Nash-type player, but that should not be enough to beat Michigan and Trey Burke, who is a candidate for national player of the year and a Chris Paul-type player. Michigan is the better offensive team and moves on.

No. 3 Florida over No. 14 Northwestern State: The Gators are a balanced team that wins against lesser opponents. Florida wins and moves on.

No. 11 Minnesota over No. 6 UCLA: The Gophers have been up-and-down all season but are an outstanding offensive rebounding team. UCLA won the Pac-12, but lost key contributor Jordan Adams for the season. Because of Minnesota's work on the backboards, Minnesota will move on.

No. 7 San Diego State over No. 10 Oklahoma: The Aztecs are solid on the defensive end, but Oklahoma's Romero Osby will be a tough matchup. That said, Jamaal Franklin can match him point for point and rebound for rebound. I like San Diego State to advance.

No. 2 Georgetown over No. 15 Florida Gulf Coast: Florida Gulf Coast beat Miami earlier this year and played Duke, but Georgetown is a terrific defensive team that is long, athletic and can shut down almost any offense.

Round of 32

No. 1 Kansas over No. 8 North Carolina: The Jayhawks are bigger inside, but Jeff Withey can move his feet well enough to play James Michael McAdoo on the perimeter or inside. Kansas will win and advance.

No. 5 VCU over No. 4 Michigan: The Rams can turn Michigan over, and the difference will be knocking down open shots. Given VCU's style of play, I like VCU to advance past the Wolverines.

No. 3 Florida over No. 11 Minnesota: The Gators are more consistent and better in every metric. In fact, they are the only team to rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. I like Florida to get past Minnesota and move on to the Sweet 16.

No. 2 Georgetown over No. 7 San Diego State: The battle between Jamaal Franklin and Otto Porter will go to the Hoyas. As much as we focus on Porter's scoring, he is one of the best defenders in the college game. The key to beating the Hoyas is to turn them over and use transition baskets to outscore them. San Diego State doesn't really do that (269th in turnover percentage). Georgetown will advance.

Sweet 16

No. 5 VCU over No. 1 Kansas: The Jayhawks are not a great passing team, and the speed with which VCU plays will be debilitating to the Jayhawks. Because of its defense -- and a mind-boggling ability to force turnovers on 28.6 of its opponent's possessions -- VCU will advance.

No. 2 Georgetown over No. 3 Florida: We almost saw this game at the start of the season and -- absent the aircraft carrier, and the condensation -- now we get the chance to check it out in the tourney. The Hoyas are better defensively, holding 11 of their last 15 opponents under 60 points, and should win. They also have the best player on the floor in Otto Porter.

Elite Eight

No. 5 VCU over No. 2 Georgetown: Turnovers are devastating to the Hoyas, given their deliberate tempo, and that's precisely how VCU will win. The Hoyas are the better team, but this matchup will give them fits. VCU will advance -- by forcing turnovers and hitting 3s -- to the Final Four.

Final Four

No. 1 Louisville over No. 2 Ohio State: The Cardinals will have to work at it to get the Buckeyes to turn over the ball. OSU is 15th in the nation in offensive turnover percentage, but they've seen few guard tandems as quick as Louisville's. Peyton Siva and Russ Smith will swarm Aaron Craft all game long. A fast game favors the Cardinals, and ultimately Rick Pitino's team will advance.

No. 1 Indiana over No. 5 VCU: The Hoosiers may fall victim to VCU's defense on a few possessions, but they have the offensive efficiency to overcome a few miscues. The Hoosiers can also put up points in a hurry with their stellar 3-point shooting. The biggest difference-maker should be Cody Zeller. If Indiana can get him the ball, he will dominate against the Rams, who rank just 258th defensively inside the arc.

Final

No. 1 Louisville over No. 1 Indiana: The Cardinals feature a lot of the same defensive weapons as VCU -- particularly full-court defensive pressure -- but also flaunt a much better and bigger frontcourt. Gorgui Dieng can match up with Cody Zeller down low while Peyton Siva and Russ Smith will be pests all game long against Yogi Ferrell and Jordan Hulls. Pitting the top team in offensive efficiency (Indiana) against the top team in defensive efficiency (Louisville) should produce a phenomenal final, and I give the edge to the Cardinals.

Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

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