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Race for the eighth spot in West
Welcome to the playoffs for the playoffs.
The Eastern Conference playoff field has been locked up for weeks, but we can't say the same out West. It's been a competitive four-team race for the eighth and final spot on the Western Conference postseason roster, but we can safely remove the Portland Trail Blazers from that Final Four after they lost to the Utah Jazz on Monday night, their fifth straight L, dropping them to 33-41.
That leaves the Dallas Mavericks, Los Angeles Lakers and Jazz to duke it out for the lone vacant seat at the table. Fans of the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets may want to keep their Sharpies locked away for now, but they can pencil in their spot in the field, as Hollinger's Playoff Odds give those two teams each greater than 98 percent odds to punch their ticket.
Who owns the tiebreakers? Who has the easiest schedule? Is Dwight Howard delusional about his bold prediction? For more on how Hollinger's Playoff Odds work, feel free to check out this page, but we're going to need to go deeper into the numbers to figure out which team -- Mavericks, Lakers or Jazz -- will likely be the last team standing.
How the Jazz make the playoffs
Record: 39-36
Playoff Odds: 56 percent
Games remaining: 7 (4H/3A)
Remaining SOS: .535
Guess what: The standings are lying to you. It may seem like the Jazz have a half-game lead in the standings over the Lakers and a two-game lead over the Mavs, but you should add an extra game to those cushions. Why? Tiebreakers. In the event of a tie, the league rules stipulate that the team with the better head-to-head record in the regular season wins out. In this case, the Jazz have taken two of the three games against both the Lakers and the Mavs this season. Additionally, the Jazz would survive in the event of a three-way tie.
So, good news for those in Salt Lake City: The Jazz have the inside track to the playoffs, and the Playoff Odds bear this out. In reality, the tiebreakers effectively give the Jazz a 1.5-game cushion over the Lakers and a three-game lead over the Mavs. The bad news? Even with the head start and a current five-game win streak, the Jazz still have their work cut out for them.
Look at the seven remaining games on the Jazz's schedule. They still have to play the Warriors, the Denver Nuggets, the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Memphis Grizzlies from here on out, and only two of those games are at home (Warriors and Nuggets). Utah's record against those teams? 4-7. The tiebreakers may give the Jazz the inside track, but they'll need to go 5-2 or better the rest of the way to feel safe against the Lakers. Think of it this way: the Jazz essentially have a 2-on-1 fast break, but Jamaal Tinsley and Earl Watson are running it.
How the Lakers make the playoffs
Record: 38-36
Playoff Odds: 40.6 percent
Games remaining: 8 (6H/2A)
Remaining SOS: .561
Howard made headlines recently by opening his mouth (shocking, I know) and delivering a pseudo-prediction that the Lakers "should" win the next eight games to finish the season. Good luck with that. Not helping matters is that Steve Nash is battling issues with his hips and right hamstring, a condition which doctors have diagnosed as "being a 39-year-old NBA player," and remains a game-time decision for Tuesday night's game against one of his former teams, the Mavericks.
The Nash injury is not a death knell for the Lakers, however. Interestingly enough, the Lakers have done better without Nash this season. According to NBA.com/stats, the Lakers have outscored opponents by 1.4 points per 100 possessions this season with Nash on the court, but that lead widens to 2.0 points every 100 possessions with him on the bench, thanks to a better defensive output. According to the scoreboard, Metta World Peace's season-ending knee surgery may be the bigger deal; World Peace had the best net rating of any Lakers player this season (plus-9.1).
It may not calm nerves in LakerLand that the Lakers' postseason fate probably rests in the hands of Steve Blake and Jodie Meeks, who has replaced World Peace in the starting lineup. Throw in the fact that Kobe Bryant has been limited with a bone spur in his right heel, and the Lakers look like damaged goods as they limp to the finish line. With six of their next eight games against teams in the playoff picture (Mavericks included), the odds are stacked against them. Better hope opponents rest their stars down the stretch, because anything less than a 6-2 record the rest of the way likely won't cut it.
How the Mavericks make the playoffs
Record: 36-37
Playoff Odds: 6.0 percent
Games remaining: 9 (4H/5A)
Remaining SOS: .485
It's pretty much do-or-die for the Mavs on Tuesday against the Lakers, and the Staples Center playoff atmosphere will be fitting. The Mavericks' playoff hopes are on life support and Dirk Nowitzki and Co. need to win Tuesday's game in order to have any shot of getting that final ticket.
Here's the uphill climb for the Mavericks: They need to win Tuesday's game and likely need to go 7-1 or better the rest of the way, and then pray that the Jazz collapse down the stretch. Some tiebreaker info: A win over the Lakers would put the head-to-head games at two wins apiece for the first tiebreaker, which would then go to the best Western Conference record for the second tiebreaker (assuming the Jazz fall apart). Even though a Tuesday victory would tie the Lakers in the overall standings, the Mavericks would still trail the Lakers by a half-game in the West. That's the kicker.
Dallas' upcoming schedule ain't helping. Five of its remaining nine games are on the road, with two back-to-backs (more than the Jazz and Lakers combined). It'll help that the average opponent is a below-.500 team, because the Mavericks will need to run the table (or something close to it) the rest of the way. More last-second heroics from Nowitzki, basically.
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Best, worst salary-cap situations
It's never too early to start thinking about NBA free agency, and what teams might be able to do this summer.
Even though the trade deadline fizzled this season, teams still took care of business -- the biggest deals were just done early. Oklahoma City started it off by moving James Harden to the Houston Rockets right before the season started (and in time to allow Houston to ink him to a max extension). Memphis followed up by orchestrating a three-way, six-player deal with Toronto and Detroit in early February, with Rudy Gay moving to the Raptors, Jose Calderon going to the Pistons and Tayshaun Prince shipping off to the Grizzlies. These moves dwarfed the biggest deadline deal: J.J. Redikk moving from Orlando to Milwaukee.
On Monday, Amin Elhassan offered his Top 30 free agents by average annual value in the 2013 class. But which teams will be able to afford any of them?
More than ever, basketball reasons are now sharing the stage with business reasons when it comes to making deals. The new collective bargaining agreement really starts to bare its teeth next year, when the progressive luxury tax takes over for the meeker, dollar-for-dollar tax. Teams like the Los Angeles Lakers will be pining for the days when being $30 million over the tax line meant a $30 million tax bill; next year a team $30 million over the tax line will have to cut a check for a whopping $85 million.
Taxpaying teams can face additional obstacles in the form of reduced access to sign-and-trade transactions and exceptions like the midlevel and bi-annual, and in some cases a hard cap.
As a result, teams now are watching their finances closer than ever, and this concern is evident in the lack of significant deals at the trade deadline. Even the larger deals earlier this season were done with finances in mind -- for example, the small-market Thunder could scarcely afford to keep Harden at the maximum salary when they already had three players drawing eight-figure salaries.
So what lies ahead? We don't have firm values for next season's cap and tax levels yet (they're dependent on this season's revenues, which are largely dependent on which teams make the playoffs and how deep they go). At this point we can say the salary cap will be in the $58.5-60 million range next season, and the luxury-tax threshold will be somewhere in the $71.5-73 million range. This will put the apron -- the point at which teams have less access to exceptions and some teams are hard-capped -- at around $75.5-77 million.
These figures define salary ranges in which we can place the 30 teams:
The big spenders
Teams in this situation: Miami Heat ($86.5 million already committed for 2013-14), Brooklyn Nets ($85.6 million), Lakers ($79.6 million), New York Knicks ($77.6 million) and Chicago Bulls ($77.1 million)
Life below the tax line? A fond memory at best. Cap room? A pipe dream. These teams have hoarded expensive players and have massive payrolls to show for their efforts. As a result they are not only over the tax line, they are also above the apron -- the point at which further system restrictions take effect.
Take the Lakers as an example. Their $79.6 million payroll, while alarmingly high, is at the same time deceptively low. Dwight Howard is hitting free agency this summer, and is the centerpiece of the team's transition plans to the next generation of Lakers basketball. If they re-sign him -- and the team has gone all-in on the assumption that it will -- another $20 million will be tacked onto that $79.6 million, which will nudge their total past the $100 million mark once all is said and done.
As a result, they will face the full wrath of the new collective bargaining agreement. Their tax bill will hover in the $72-79 million range, although $30 million can be lopped off if the team uses its amnesty waiver on Metta World Peace.
In addition the team will have a smaller midlevel exception with which to sign free agents ($3.183 million instead of $5.15 million, and three years instead of four), no access to the bi-annual exception and no ability to receive a player in a sign-and-trade deal. Compared to other teams -- especially those with significant cap room -- the Lakers will be handcuffed.
But it will be all worth it if they can bring home another title before Kobe Bryant's window closes.
The low-tax teams
Teams in this situation: Golden State Warriors ($73.8 million), Toronto Raptors ($73.0 million) and Boston Celtics ($72.9 million)
These teams are already in luxury-tax territory, but are still below the apron. The good news is that while they are slated to be payers into the luxury-tax fund, they will be paying the base rate of $1.50 per dollar rather than one of the more egregious progressive rates. The bad news is that they are also handcuffed by the same system restrictions as the apron teams, even though they are below the apron.
This is because once a team acts like a team that is below the apron, it commits itself to remaining below the apron for the remainder of the season. For example, if a team spends the full $5.15 million midlevel exception (which is reserved for teams below the apron) then the apron becomes a hard cap. This makes sense if you think about it, since the league doesn't want a team making an end-run around the rules by manipulating the order in which it does things.
As a result, the above three teams that are near the apron are better off behaving as though they are taxpayers -- spending only $3.183 million of their midlevel exception, avoiding the bi-annual exception and using the sign-and-trade mechanism to receive a player.
The teams just below the tax line
Teams in this situation: Denver Nuggets ($68.7 million), Thunder ($67.8 million) and Memphis Grizzlies ($61.0 million)
None of these three teams are in a big market, which means that none of the three can really afford to be taxpayers. This could prove to be difficult -- for example, the Thunder currently have 12 players signed for 2013-14, and may have as many as three first-round draft picks. In addition, each team will have free agents it may want to bring back, and each re-signed free agent will further add to the team's total.
Overall this means that while these teams may enter free agency below the tax line, it might prove difficult to remain there.
The teams with big cap room
Teams in this situation: Cleveland Cavaliers ($35.9 million committed for 2013-14), Detroit Pistons ($35.0 million), Utah Jazz ($28.1 million) and Atlanta Hawks ($22.4 million)
We're going to skip over the field for now (15 teams, each with a committed payroll between $41.1 million and $58.7 million) to focus on the teams that may have significant amounts of cap room this summer. Each of the above teams may be more than $20 million under the salary cap this summer, which means they may be significant players in the free-agent market.
The biggest impediment to all this cap room, however, is each team's own free agents. For example, Atlanta can only realize its full potential of $36-38 million in cap room (minus some cap holds to account for things like empty roster spots and the team's first-round picks) if it walks away from its own free agents, including Josh Smith.
Still, it's an enviable position in which to be. Each team will be unburdened by the luxury tax and apron (and related system restrictions), and will be the only teams able to dangle a maximum or near-maximum salary in front of a premier free agent.
The NBA is going through a transition period as the last vestiges of the old CBA fade away, and the new CBA takes full effect. Starting this summer we finally will see how the lockout and resulting agreement really affected the league's free-agent market.
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Who's next? Leading HOF choices
Bernard King and Gary Payton are in. Who's next? We know the NBA members of the 2013 Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame class, announced Monday morning at the Final Four. But it's never too early to start looking ahead to the players that will become eligible in future years, as well as some other candidates who may fill out upcoming Hall of Fame classes.
I'll do so with the help of my wins above replacement (WARP) statistic, which is ideally suited to the task because it can sum up career value. By factoring in replacement level, WARP keeps players from piling up extra credit by hanging around long past their prime. Despite the occasionally unpredictable nature of Hall of Fame voting -- remember, it's the Basketball Hall of Fame, not the NBA Hall of Fame, WARP matches up decently with the results.
A 150 career WARP tends to be the cutoff for inner-circle Hall of Famers; every eligible player who has surpassed that total has been elected. Between 100 and 150 WARP, better than a third of eligible players are Hall of Famers. Anything less than 100 WARP, however, and chances dwindle. A total of 18.2 percent of eligible players between 75 and 100 WARP have been voted in, and just 9.5 percent of players between 50 and 75 -- several of them of players whose careers started before the period WARP covers, dating back to 1979-80.
Keeping that in mind, let's take a look at who might be next for the Hall of Fame.
2014
First-Ballot: None
Likely Hall of Famers: Alonzo Mourning (123.2 career WARP)
Possible Hall of Famers: Chris Webber (136.2 career WARP)
Hall of Very Good: Sam Cassell (104.6 career WARP), Steve Francis (74.7 career WARP), Penny Hardaway (73.5 career WARP), Eddie Jones (113.6 career WARP)
Next year's class, made up of players whose final NBA season was 2007-08, is loaded with interesting names who fall short of Hall of Fame caliber. Steve Francis and Penny Hardaway burned brightly but lack the longevity to be serious candidates, while Sam Cassell and Eddie Jones were consistently solid but never great. It also includes fringe stars such as Shareef Abdur-Rahim (71.3 career WARP), Damon Stoudamire (73.4) and Antoine Walker (79.5).
Robert Horry (67.8 career WARP) will also surely get some support because of his postseason impact. Grantland's Bill Simmons chose Horry for his Hall of Fame in "The Book of Basketball." Horry's legacy as a member of seven championship teams deserves to be commemorated in Springfield, Mass., somehow, but a spot in the Hall of Fame would be unprecedented for a player who never so much as made an All-Star team. (There are Hall of Famers, such as Bob Houbregs and Arvydas Sabonis, who were not NBA All-Stars but were chosen because of their accomplishments in college or overseas.)
That leaves two players worth seriously discussing. As one of the greatest defensive players in NBA history, Alonzo Mourning looks like a yes. He ranks 11th on the all-time block leaderboard, won defensive player of the year twice and was a top-five player in his prime (in 1998-99, he finished fourth in WARP and second in MVP voting).
Chris Webber is a more agonizing choice. Strictly by the numbers, he should be comfortably in. Every season from 1998-99 through 2002-03, Webber was an All-NBA player as the leader of very good Sacramento Kings teams. However, voters are likely to remember Webber falling short in key situations (the infamous timeout in the 1993 championship game, and the 2002 Western Conference finals). The stats do back up that Webber wasn't the same player in the playoffs. I think he will ultimately get in, but it will probably take several years for Webber's accomplishments to overcome his baggage.
2015
First-Ballot: None
Likely Hall of Famers: Dikembe Mutombo (141.2 career WARP)
Possible Hall of Famers: None
Hall of Very Good: Stephon Marbury (115.5 career WARP)
Few players reach the Hall of Fame with single-digit scoring averages (he finished his 18-year career at 9.8 points per game). Dikembe Mutombo deserves to be the exception. He's in the discussion for best defensive player in NBA history, ranking second in career blocks; nobody has won the defensive player of the year award more times. Given Mutombo's longevity -- he was a useful reserve into his 40s -- and his humanitarian work, I think he makes it in.
Stephon Marbury's statistics are borderline at best, and given the ample evidence that they overstated his ability to help a team win, he has zero chance at the Hall of Fame.
2016
First-Ballot: Allen Iverson (138.5 career WARP)
Likely Hall of Famers: None
Possible Hall of Famers: None
Hall of Very Good: Michael Finley (70.5 career WARP)
Every eligible MVP winner has been voted into the Hall of Fame, and Allen Iverson will as well despite being near the bottom of this group in terms of career value. The more interesting question is whether Iverson will get in on the first ballot or have to wait for his selection. That could go either way, especially if voters hold the abrupt end of Iverson's NBA career against him. Iverson hopes to delay this decision by returning to the NBA, but that prospect seems remote.
2017
First-Ballot: Shaquille O'Neal (264.8 career WARP)
Likely Hall of Famers: Yao Ming (67.2 career WARP)
Possible Hall of Famers: None
Hall of Very Good: Peja Stojakovic (74.9 career WARP)
Barring a change to a Simmons-style Hall of Fame pyramid, which would force voters to rank Shaq against the other great centers in NBA history, there is zero drama in his Hall of Fame election. O'Neal fans can already make plans to be in Springfield in September 2017 to see him inducted.
O'Neal may be joined by Yao Ming, depending on timing. In 2011, the Hall considered including Yao among the nominees as a contributor, which would have eliminated the usual five-year waiting period. However, Yao's agent asked the Hall to save the discussion for a later date. As a player, Yao's case is borderline, because he played only 486 games over seven-plus seasons, but not unprecedented. (Bill Walton, whose career was similarly cut short by injury, played 468.) Adding in Yao's importance to growing basketball in China and his international career makes him an easier call as a contributor.
2018
First Ballot: None
Likely Hall of Famers: None
Possible Hall of Famers: Tracy McGrady (149.3 career WARP), Ben Wallace (113.5 career WARP)
Hall of Very Good: Gilbert Arenas (72.8 career WARP), Mike Bibby (86.4 career WARP), Brad Miller (72.6 career WARP)
While there's still time for Tracy McGrady to make a comeback, if this is it for his NBA career, the Hall of Fame committee will face a difficult choice come 2018. McGrady's case is somewhat similar to Webber's and that of his cousin, Vince Carter (141.3 career WARP, and still adding to that total). McGrady had an MVP-caliber peak, and his six appearances on All-NBA teams would ordinarily bode well for selection. Yet McGrady is remembered best for his teams' inability to win in the playoffs and his lax work ethic. I don't think he will be selected.
Ben Wallace represents a different kind of challenge. Like Mutombo, Wallace is a four-time defensive player of the year, though his shorter career did not allow him to rack up the same kind of counting stats (he ranks 13th all-time in blocks). I would compare Wallace favorably to recent inductee Dennis Rodman. Wallace made more All-Star teams (4-2) and All-NBA teams (5-2) than Rodman. Yet the Worm's role on five championship teams (Wallace won just one title) may ultimately be the bigger factor for voters.
Wild Cards
Top Candidates By WARP
Player Years Last WARP
Tim Hardaway 13 2003 148.7
Mark Jackson 17 2004 138.6
Terry Porter 17 2002 134.7
Larry Nance 13 1994 131.1
M. Blaylock 13 2002 129.1
Vlade Divac 16 2005 119.7
Rod Strickland 17 2005 118.7
Jack Sikma 14 1991 113.0
Shawn Kemp 14 2003 112.1
Kevin Johnson 12 2000 111.8
Jeff Hornacek 14 2000 107.0
Derek Harper 16 1999 105.8
Mark Price 12 1998 101.1
Besides players just becoming eligible, the Hall of Fame will also consider retired players who have already been on the ballot. Among that group, the leaders in career WARP (table right) are notable.
Hardaway, a finalist this year, has a good shot at eventually being selected. Even accounting for WARP's obvious bias toward '90s point guards (sorry, Mookie Blaylock is not a Hall of Famer, unless you mean the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame). He is one of seven eligible players not in the Hall that Basketball-Reference.com's Hall of Fame predictor gives a better than 50-50 shot of making it.
Basketball-Reference also likes Mitch Richmond's chances of potentially putting all three members of Run-TMC in the Hall. WARP is more skeptical of Richmond's candidacy, putting him distinctly in Hall of Very Good territory with 77.0 career WARP. Richmond's effective career was relatively brief, and in his prime he was not as efficient as contemporaries such as Reggie Miller.
WARP and Basketball-Reference are in agreement that Jack Sikma is the best of the pre-'90s candidates. Sikma's WARP figure above slightly understates his value because it does not include his first two seasons in Seattle, which resulted in a pair of trips to the NBA Finals. Sikma ranks third in Hall of Fame probability, trailing Jo Jo White and Willie Naulls. Yet he has not been one of the finalists in recent years.
One other candidate worth mentioning is Maurice Cheeks, a finalist in recent years who just barely missed the 100 threshold for career WARP (he had 98.0). Because of his role on Philadelphia 76ers teams that contended perennially in the 1980s and the popularity of pass-first point guards, Cheeks has a good shot at eventually making it in.
Coaches
Rick Adelman, George Karl and Gregg Popovich
As Per Diem predecessor John Hollinger regularly noted, the Hall of Fame's ratio of college coaches to NBA coaches is woefully lopsided. The Hall can even things up by inducting three active coaches.
Adelman and Karl both have more than 1,000 career wins after Adelman reached the mark on Saturday, putting them in an elite group of the eight winningest coaches in league history. The other six are all Hall of Famers, and Adelman and Karl deserve to join them. Basically the only argument against Adelman and Karl is that neither has won a championship, which (rightfully) did not keep Don Nelson out of the Hall. Both have winning percentages well north of .500, unlike the other eligible coaches with 900-plus wins, Bill Fitch and 2013 finalist dikk Motta.
Popovich's induction is surely a matter of time. The four other coaches with more than two championships have been inducted, and Popovich is closing in on 1,000 career wins -- he's about two more good seasons away from the milestone.
Starting 5: Busy hoops week
Editor's note: Every Monday in "Starting 5," we'll roll out five stories, themes and nuggets from the basketball recruiting world to tip off your week in proper form. We'll set the table with the stories that need to be told and give you a leg up on the water cooler conversations around the office.
This week's edition of Starting 5 includes an update on available senior point guard Jaren Sina, why Ben Simmons will be heard from in the 2015 class, a big week from Kentucky-bound center Dakari Johnson, a gutsy performance from Syracuse-bound point guard Tyler Ennis and an introduction to freshman phenom Terrance Ferguson.
1. Sina working off list of four
One of the best available senior guards is one-time Alabama commit and one-time Northwestern signee Jaren Sina (Lake Hopatcong, N.J./Gill St. Bernard's). Sina's journey began with an early pledge to Anthony Grant's Crimson Tide as a sophomore. He would later back off that commitment and settle in at Northwestern.
But last month, Bill Carmody was fired at Northwestern and Sina was back in play. The son of a coach, Sina has four schools currently in the mix.
Alabama and Northwestern both remain on his list. Sina texted that he has an official visit set up this Thursday to Alabama, while new Northwestern coach Chris Collins will be in for an in-home visit on Sunday.
Seton Hall, meanwhile, has always been a player in his recruitment as the local option and remains in play. The newbie to Sina's suitor list is Indiana. "I'm in the process of setting up an official visit with Indiana," Sina said.
IU's inclusion makes sense. Tom Crean's large six-man recruiting class is a veritable Noah's Ark even though it doesn't have two of everything, it has a lot of different pieces -- but there's no representation at the point or combo guard spots. Indiana cleared the way to recruit Yogi Ferrell by offering up a roster with playing time. Now the Hoosiers have their four-year starter at the point but need complements and depth at the point, combo and shooting guard positions. Sina could potentially fill that role for Indiana.
2. Welcome, Ben Simmons
When I first saw sophomore power forward Ben Simmons (Melbourne, Australia/Montverde Academy) last June, I was geeked up. The Australian made his U.S. debut at the Pangos All-American Camp and it was awesome. At the time, the words "top-five talent if he was in the States" were put to paper.
Well, now he's in the States and he's going to be on that top-five list for 2015.
This past weekend, Simmons came off the bench for Montverde Academy (Fla.) in the National High School Invitational as the Eagles won the 2013 tournament championship courtesy of a Jayln Patterson game-winning 3-pointer off a great kickout pass from Florida-bound point guard Kasey Hill.
Montverde has two McDonald's All-Americans in Hill and Kentucky-bound center Dakari Johnson and a roster full of Division I talent. That's why the following statement is impactful: Simmons is the best prospect Montverde has this year.
Simmons was an integral part of the championship squad, but he's not the team's best player at the moment. That will come next year. He played less than five games with Montverde this season but quickly earned the trust of head coach Kevin Boyle which, by the way, isn't easy.
What is Simmons? He's a hybrid 4-man, a lefty with an incredible ability to pass the basketball and see the floor. He has size, burgeoning strength and bounce. He can shoot it, but that needs work. His father, Dave, was a standout at Oklahoma City University before settling in Australia, where he became one of the all-time leading scorers for the Melbourne Tigers.
We still have decisions to make in the 2015 class, but don't be at all surprised if Simmons settles in at the No. 2 spot behind Ivan Rabb (Oakland, Calif./Bishop O'Dowd). Simmons is that talented.
3. Dakari Johnson gets fired up -- and bold
From last Sunday through this past Saturday, I lived a basketball junkie's dream and was fortunate to see some strong competition at NHSI after putting a final grade on 25 of the nation's best senior prospects at the McDonald's All American Game.
Johnson, the UK-bound big man out of Montverde who competed in both events last week and was MVP at NHSI, is ready for the Class of 2013 top 10 in my opinion. Last week I wrote that he was the best center in the 2013 class and there was a sizeable gap between he and whomever we settle on at No. 2 (I'll take Kansas-bound Joel Embiid).
In the last nine months, Johnson has gotten healthy, run the floor much better and polished up his post game. In a class where many of the top players are still searching for an identity, Johnson is confident in who he is. "I'm a center and I know it," Johnson said the day he committed to Kentucky back in January. Since then, he's lived the mantra, played like a center and dominated his position.
Following Montverde's last-second win over St. Benedict's (N.J.) at NHSI, Johnson lived in the moment. The big fella went with a big prediction, and it was awesome. Here was a kid on the top of the mountain and he was psyched up but not satisfied. He said the words that he was guaranteeing a national title next season at Kentucky.
Heck, with the talent heading to Lexington, that's more than a hollow prediction. When a 6-foot-10 recruit who's the best at his position says it, it's a proclamation.
4. St. Benedict's backcourt was awesome
A month ago, Syracuse-bound point guard Tyler Ennis (Brampton, Ontario/St. Benedict's) was in trouble. He'd bruised his shoulder and didn't play for three weeks.
But after the first two games at NHSI this weekend, Ennis was back on roll. In a semifinal upset of No. 1 Findlay Prep (Nev.), he blew up and the Pilots couldn't defend him on ball screens. Ennis got a piece of the paint whenever he wanted. A classic scoring point guard, he did just that all weekend long until his shoulder ran into Kasey Hill's body in the finals.
Ennis sat for half of the second quarter after reaggravating the nagging bruised shoulder. He returned in the second half but wasn't himself as the shooting shoulder couldn't reload as needed. Then, with the game on the line and St. Benedict's trailing by two in the closing seconds, Ennis nailed a corner 3-pointer that looked like the game-winner until Patterson's shot topped his. Regardless, Ennis put forth a gutsy effort.
While Ennis was on the mend, VCU-bound junior point guard Jonathan Williams (Newark, N.J./St. Benedict's) ran the show. You might have heard of Havoc, VCU's style of ball. Well, Williams fits Havoc. Though he needs to get better with his deep shot, he is a bowling ball en route to the rim and an assist maven. The Rams landed a prospect who could roll in the ACC. Together, Ennis and Williams played off each other and took turns commandeering the Gray Bees' offense.
5. Freshman Orientation: Terrance Ferguson
Sometime this week, jumbo freshman shooting guard Terrance Ferguson (Tulsa, Okla./Prime Prep) will figure out who he's running with in AAU this spring. We'd advise you to pay attention and start following this cat.
For a loaded Prime Prep (Texas) squad this season, Ferguson brought 9.8 points per game off the bench. We're talking about a shooting guard who is 6-5 with range and confidence. At NHSI, Prime would bring him off the bench, run an action for him, and make or miss he was stepping into 3-pointers like he belonged on the stage.
"His role is to come in and provide a spark," Prime coach Ray Forsett said. "He can shoot it -- he's a catch-and-shoot guy. He's going to be a top 10 kid before it's all said and done. He has great work ethic and an abundance of talent."
Ferguson was home-schooled last year in Tulsa, Okla., before deciding to come to Prime for the national exposure and competition. At one point this season, he was the team's leading scorer.
Baylor, SMU, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Texas have reportedly offered him. Having seen him twice this year, he may wind up with the body and game of Sheldon McClellan. He hasn't quite figured out how to use his game at the rim, but that'll come with time and experience.
"He was never seen because he was home-schooled," Forsett said. "He wanted to be seen."
Mission accomplished.
FreedS[ohh]lave
Banned
FreedS[ohh]lave;3842331 said:
Okafor, Alexander highlight NY2LA event
MILWAUKEE -- The annual NY2LA Swish N' Dish was once again loaded with elite high-major talent and several quality Division I prospects this past weekend. Here are some performance superlatives from this star-studded event, which is extremely well-organized and run by national recruiting director Antonio Curro.
Most Powerful Player
Cliff Alexander (Chicago/Curie)
2014, C, 6-9, 240
Offers: Michigan State, Kentucky, Michigan, Florida, Kansas, Baylor, Arizona, Illinois, DePaul, Louisville and Memphis.
Alexander is a strong, tough and physical post. He runs the floor well because of his great mobility. He finishes above the rim with extreme power and rebounds in his area at rim level with strong two-hand snatches. Alexander rejects shots like he is spiking a volleyball and invites contact.
Best NBA Prospect
Jahlil Okafor (Chicago, Whitney Young)
2014, C, 6-foot-9, 270
Offers: Duke, Michigan State, Ohio State, Kansas, Illinois and Kentucky.
Okafor's size, mobility, hands, footwork and improved conditioning makes him a special prospect. He scored through contact and by extending over defenders, finishing with great touch. Okafor rebounded well in his area, including a couple put backs on the offensive glass where Okafor simply attacked the rim with power. He ran the floor well and competed with good energy the entire game. Okafor can dominate the game whenever he wants and the only player who can defend him and make him earn his keep right now is Cliff Alexander.
Biggest Surprises
Lamonte Bearden (Germantown, Wis./Germantown)
2014, PG, 6-2, 163
Offers: North Dakota St., South Dakota St., Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Wisconsin-Green Bay.
Interest: Michigan State, Bradley, Richmond, Creighton, N.C. State
Bearden is a long, lean point guard who plays with swagger. He pushes the ball on the break and is a threat to go coast-to-coast if not brought under control by transition defenders. He is shifty with the ball and created opportunities for himself and teammates off the dribble. He is a good rhythm shooter who extends to the arc off the catch or dribble including the step jumper.
Ikenna Okwarabizie (St. Louis/St. Louis Christian)
2014, C, 6-10, 220
Interest: Oklahoma, LSU, Tennessee and Texas-Arlington.
Okwarabizie is a physical post with a college-ready body. He finishes above the rim on the break and when he has an angle and is an excellent rebounder in and out of his area. Okwarabizie arsenal includes a power drop steps and a nice face-up game following a shot fake. His feet allow him to run the floor extremely well and he made his presence felt defensively as he denied the low-post entry pass and even fronted when needed. He is fairly new to the game but is learning at a steady pace.
Smoothest Game
Keita Bates-Diop (Normal, Ill./University)
2014, SF, 6-8, 205
Committed: Ohio State
Bates-Diop displayed great versatility on offense throughout the event. He ran the floor well and used his length, quickness and athleticism to score. Bates-Diop knocked down open 3s and slashed along the baseline to finish with touch and body control. He handled the ball extremely well and made a couple very good passes to cutting teammates showing his unselfishness. Bates-Diop is very comfortable making high-level plays and makes the process look easy.
Most Competitive
Jae'Sean Tate (Pickerington, Ohio/Central)
2014, SF, 6-5, 200
Committed: Ohio State
This lefty attacks the rim on the break, finishes through contact with ease and rebounds in and out of his area on a regular basis. He can defend four positions at the high school level and completely shuts opponent down. He runs down loose balls and will not hesitate to get on the floor and sacrifice his body. Tate makes extra effort plays seem routine.
Best Shooting Point Guards
Jalen Brunson (Chicago /Stevenson)
2015, PG, 6-2, 180
Offers: Illinois, DePaul, SMU and Xavier.
Brunson is a lefty lead guard who is smart and crafty. He can push the ball and run the offense, but what makes Brunson truly a special point guard is his ability to shoot. Brunson can knock down the open 3 if the defense falls asleep. Brunson has good basketball bloodlines as he is the son of Temple great and former NBA player Rick Brunson.
Riley LaChance (Brookfield, Wis./Brookfield Central)
2014, PG, 6-2, 175
Offers: Western Michigan, Wisconsin-Milwaukee, North Dakota St., South Dakota St., South Dakota.
LaChance is a competitive point guard who buries open treys on a consistent basis. He can handle the rock, set up teammates and is very unselfish. LaChance gets on a roll from behind the arc and is not afraid to take and can make big shots when the game is on the line. He knows how to play and his production is consistent.
Best Basketball IQ and Feel
Nick Noskowiak (Sun Prairie, Wis./Sun Prairie)
2015, PG, 6-2, 180
Offers: Iowa St., Creighton, Wisconsin-Green Bay, Wisconsin-Milwaukee and Northern Iowa.
Noskowiak is a coach on the floor and a very capable playmaker who makes maximizes the talent on the roster. He plays with his head and eyes up at all times and knows when to get his looks within the offense. Noskowiak is a player coaches can trust to do the right thing and do it at the right time.
Bright Future
Charles Matthews (Chicago/St. Rita)
2015, SF, 6-5, 175
Offers: Arizona, Illinois, DePaul, SMU and Providence.
Matthews is a very talented wing who has hoops star written all over him if he continues to work and develop. He is a very athletic slasher who loves to attack from the baseline where he finishes with excellent touch and body control with either hand. He has an excellent first step and can get to the rim with his ability to come off of screens, catch and go. He is also an alert help defender and perimeter shot blocker.
Star in the Making
Jayson Tatum (St. Louis /Chaminade)
2016, SG/SF, 6-7, 175
Offers: Illinois, Missouri, Kansas, Marquette and Florida.
Interest: St. Louis, Indiana and Michigan State.
Tatum is a skilled scorer with tremendous length and an ability to score in a variety of ways. Tatum finishes above the rim on the break and has a bevy of scoring moves including, a step back jumper going left, jab moves to set up drives and a sweet floater. He is a good perimeter rebounder and a willing and passer with an excellent basketball IQ. Tatum has off the charts upside and is fun to watch compete.
Best Passer
Tyler Ulis (Matteson, Ill./Marian Central)
2014, PG, 5-9, 145
Offers: Iowa, Oregon St., Purdue, DePaul, Dayton and Colorado St.
Ulis is a pass-first floor general who can play fast and slow. He can push the ball on the break to find open looks for others due to his stellar court vision. He knows how to get his looks within the offense and does all this while playing under control. He can drive, draw-and-kick or penetrate and drop off pass to drop dimes on a regular basis.
Biggest Upside
Tai Odiase (Chicago/Homewood Flossmoor)
2014, C, 6-9, 195
Interest: Valparaiso, Loyola-Chicago, University of Illinois-Chicago, Southern Illinois, Western Illinois, Northern Kentucky
Odiase is a extra long and active power forward he runs the floor with long strides and can finish above the rim when he receives drop off passes created by dribble penetration. Odiase athletic ability and quickness off the floor allows him to be an excellent rebounder in and out of his area. Shot blocking is also a strength of Odiase. He has excellent timing to go along with the length to change what he doesn't get his hands on. Odiase plays hard and competes with good energy and effort. Odiase defense is ahead of his offense but his upside is excellent.
Best Committed Fits
Michael Finke (Champaign, Ill./ Centennial)
2014, PF, 6'9, 210
Committed: Illinois
Finke is a long, mobile and skilled forward with a strong basketball IQ. He runs the floor extremely well and on a consistent basis. Finke does a great job of beating opponents down the floor for rim-runs or spots up 3s. He is an excellent passer especially from the high post areas. He will be an excellent pick-and-pop offensive threat as well as a post option when he has a size advantage. Hell be a nice fit in Illinois 4 out 1 in ball screens, dribble hand offs and drive-and-kick sets.
Ethan Happ (Rockridge, Ill./Milan)
2014, PF, 6-8, 200
Committed: Wisconsin
Happ can make shots from all over the floor and is a good ballhandler for his size. He does a good job getting from point A to point B with the basketball against other power forwards. Happ is a very good passer and decision maker. He will excel in Wisconsins pick-and-pop and space options they have in their offense for stretch 4s. Happ will also make teammates better as he draws multiple defenders when he makes his move. Happ competes on every possession and has a business approach to the game.
Uncovered Gems
Cody Schwartz (Depere, Wis./West Depere)
2015, PF/WF, 6-8 200
Its always fun when you find a talented player few people know about. When a 6-8 sophomore can put the ball on the floor at the top of the key and drive for a layup, it catches your attention as a scout. And when he connects on a jumper from 22 feet on the next possession, you look for anything with the kids name on it. Schwartz is that player -- a skilled forward with good size and range. Gem uncovered!
Roderick Caldwell (Dayton, Ohio/Stivers)
2016, CG, 5-9 150
Looking for a scoring point guard in the freshman class, Caldwell is your man. He is very good off the dribble and can drill shots out to 20 feet. He has no conscious and always thinks the next shot is going in. But don't think he is a gunner, he scores within the offense and knows how to create for others. Roderick is a tough hombre and has a very good upside.
Notes
17U Championship
The title game turned out to be a battle of Chicago with the Mac Irvin Fire going against Mean Streets. This is a big-time grudge match in the Windy City and was well worth the price of admission. There was a lot of star power on the floor, but the player of the game was 6-foot-2 junior combo guard Tori Johnson (Chicago/Morgan Park) as he led the Fire to a 60-55 victory by tossing in 17 points. Okafor, the nations No. 1 junior, chipped in with 11 points and 10 rebounds, while Ulis led Mean Streets with 20.
16U Championship
The 16U championship was a lot closer than the final score would indicate, as the St. Louis Eagles pulled away late in the second half to defeat Milwaukee DTA 72-64. Tatum led the Eagles with 15 points. 6-6 sophomore combo forward Ogugua Anunoby (Jefferson City, MO.) added 13, 6-4 sophomore PF Brandon Eckford (Milwaukee/Bay View) led DTA with 16.
FreedS[ohh]lave
Banned
FreedS[ohh]lave;3853373 said:
2013 NBA Mock Draft 1.0
The Final Four is over and the Louisville Cardinals are the national champions. With their victory, the college basketball season has come to an end. Likewise, the scouting of competitive games also has ended, and thus we're ready to reveal our first full mock draft of 2013.
All year we have kept tabs on the draft stock of players using our Big Board and the Top 100 list. Both tools are a reflection of the consensus of NBA scouts and GMs about a player's relative value in the draft.
A mock draft is a different animal altogether. In a mock draft we don't tell you where a player should go, but rather, what each team in the draft would likely do with their pick. At this point very little is set in stone, as we are still in the NBA regular season. Expect this mock draft to fluctuate greatly over the course of the next two months.
Draft order will change, as will the stock of a number of players thanks to draft camps in Portsmouth, Va., and Chicago in the coming month. We still won't know which underclassmen officially declare for the draft until the April 28 deadline. We won't even be sure of the non-lottery draft order until the regular season ends. Nor will we know the results of the lottery draft order until the NBA draft lottery on May 21. Thus, the mock draft order begins with the lottery teams owning the greatest possibility of winning the No. 1 pick (by percentage), then followed by the remaining teams in reverse order of current standings.
If you want to check out what your team would do with the No. 1 pick, check out our Lottery Mock Draft Machine that features more than 2,000 scenarios.
Here's my initial stab at a full first-round mock draft for 2013 (assuming every eligible prospect who has yet to state their intentions on the draft declares), after accounting for team needs.
1
Nerlens Noel
Charlotte Bobcats (25 percent chance to win lottery )
COLLEGE: KentuckyAGE: 18HT: 6-11WT: 215POS: C
Analysis: The Bobcats need help everywhere. With the possible exception of small forward (where last year's No. 2 pick Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is holding down the fort), Charlotte doesn't really have an A-list player on its roster. The Bobcats already have a young, athletic project in Bismack Biyombo, but every scout feels that Noel has much more potential than Biyombo and most GMs feel Noel has the most upside of any player in the draft. Noel's ACL injury is an obvious red flag, but even that could turn into a blessing. If the Bobcats have to sit Noel for much of the season, they'll likely finish with the best chance of winning the lottery in 2014. With Andrew Wiggins and a stellar high school class of 2014 coming up, it might be worth the wait.
2
Marcus Smart
Orlando Magic (19.9)
COLLEGE: Oklahoma St.AGE: 19HT: 6-4WT: 225POS: PG
Analysis: The Orlando Magic have promising young players at the 3, 4 and 5. While they could certainly upgrade there (and might if Noel is available), I expect them to take a backcourt player at No. 2. Jameer Nelson is 31 and starting to slow down. Adding a dominant player like Smart would upgrade the position immensely. While Smart has his weaknesses (his jump shot is shaky and he needs to tighten up his handle), he's strong, has a great motor and toughness, is a beast defensively and brings the leadership a young rudderless team like the Magic desperately needs.
3
Ben McLemore
Phoenix Suns (15.6)
COLLEGE: KansasAGE: 20HT: 6-5WT: 195POS: SG
Analysis: The Phoenix Suns shot 32 percent on 3-pointers this season and desperately need to improve. Their starting 2-guards, Shannon Brown and Wesley Johnson, both struggled from 3. Adding McLemore makes a lot of sense. He's one of the two or three best pure shooters in the draft and has great length and athleticism at his position. He can be a bit of a wallflower, but when he gets going he's as good as anyone in the draft.
4
Otto Porter
Cleveland Cavaliers (11.9)
COLLEGE: GeorgetownAGE: 19HT: 6-8WT: 200POS: SF
Analysis: The Cavaliers have dynamic scorers in both backcourt positions in Kyrie Irving and Dion Waiters. Their frontcourt is also virtually set with Tristan Thompson, Anderson Varejao and Tyler Zeller. Their biggest hole is at the 3, and Porter looks like the perfect complementary piece. He's a jack of all trades, doesn't need the ball in his hands to be effective and is a team player. I can't think of a better fit for Porter or the Cavs.
5
Victor Oladipo
Detroit Pistons (8.8)
COLLEGE: IndianaAGE: 20HT: 6-5WT: 214POS: SG
Analysis: The Pistons' biggest need is at small forward. Since shipping Tayshaun Prince off to Memphis, they haven't really had anyone fill his spot. However, I think Oladipo is a better fit for Detroit. Rodney Stuckey has worn out his welcome in Detroit and Oladipo is the type of player that thrived with the Pistons when President of Basketball Operations Joe Dumars was still suiting up. Olapido is an elite defender, an explosive athlete and a rapidly improving offensive player. They could settle on a player like Shabazz Muhammad here, but I think Oladipo is the best player on the board for them.
6
Trey Burke
New Orleans Hornets (5.5)
COLLEGE: MichiganAGE: 20HT: 6-1WT: 175POS: PG
Analysis: The Hornets have interesting young players at every position right now. Their biggest need is probably at small forward, though Al-Farouq Aminu has started to show some promise this year. Clearly the Hornets have a very solid point guard in Greivis Vasquez. However, Burke gives them a completely different look and would be a nice complement to Vasquez at the point. He might be a bit undersized, but his toughness, all-around game, mistake-free basketball and winning attitude should be a great fit in New Orleans.
7
Shabazz Muhammad
Sacramento Kings (5.4)
COLLEGE: UCLAAGE: 20HT: 6-6WT: 225POS: SF
Analysis: The Kings' biggest hole is at small forward, where they continue to feel the sting from the disastrous John Salmons trade from a couple years ago. Salmons is a shell of himself and the Kings are desperately in need of an upgrade. While Muhammad has been a slight disappointment as a freshman, he's tough, knows how to score and brings a strong motor to the table. I'm not sure if there will be enough shots for Muhammad with DeMarcus Cousins, Tyreke Evans, Isaiah Thomas and Marcus Thornton, but I assume the Kings, under new management whether in Sacramento or Seattle, will start to clean house.
8
Alex Len
Oklahoma City Thunder via Toronto Raptors (2.2)
COLLEGE: MarylandAGE: 19HT: 7-1WT: 225POS: C
Analysis: The Thunder get this pick from the Raptors (which the Rockets received as part of the Kyle Lowry trade only to move it onto OKC as part of the James Harden deal) as long as the Raptors aren't picking in the top three. Oklahoma City needs to find a long-term replacement for Harden at the 2 and a long-term backup for Kendrick Perkins at the 5. Len seems like great value here. He's one of the two or three biggest players in the draft, has a decent offensive game and can rebound and block shots. It really feels like he's scratching the surface. The Thunder can afford to bring him along slowly and hope he develops.
9
Anthony Bennett
Washington Wizards (2.3)
COLLEGE: UNLVAGE: 20HT: 6-8WT: 240POS: PF
Analysis: The Wizards would have to be thrilled if they can land Bennett this late in the draft. Some teams will look at him as high as No. 2. Not only is Bennett the best player left on the board, but he also fits a need for Washington at the 4. Emeka Okafor has been solid there, but he's not the long-term answer. And at this point it doesn't look like young players like Jan Vesely or Kevin Seraphin are, either. Bennett's NBA body combined with his ability to score anywhere on the floor should give the Wizards another big boost next year.
10
Gary Harris
Minnesota Timberwolves (1.1)
COLLEGE: Michigan St.AGE: 18HT: 6-4WT: 210POS: SG
Analysis: I think it's pretty likely that Harris decides to stay in college another year and undergo shoulder surgery. However, if he does end up declaring, he's a very good fit for a Timberwolves team that still is searching for a long-term solution at shooting guard. The team is shooting just 30 percent from beyond the arc this year and getting a player like Harris who can really knock down shots is a priority.
11
Cody Zeller
Philadelphia 76ers (0.8)
COLLEGE: IndianaAGE: 20HT: 6-11WT: 210POS: C
Analysis: At the start of the season there was talk of Zeller being the No. 1 pick. However, he didn't improve as much as scouts expected him to this season and his stock has slid a bit. He'd be a nice fit in Philly, however. With the exception of Spencer Hawes, the Sixers just don't have a lot of size. While I don't think Zeller is worthy of a top-five pick anymore, he's a good value here.
12
Mitch McGary
Portland Trail Blazers (0.7)
COLLEGE: MichiganAGE: 20HT: 6-10WT: 250POS: PF
Analysis: McGary mania is in full swing after a terrific run in the NCAA tourney, but NBA scouts still are getting their arms around his draft stock. They've really only been scouting this Mitch McGary for about eight games. However, on the surface, it appears that McGary has a lot of promise. He's got an incredible motor, is a good athlete, has great hands, rebounds, blocks shots and has shown a midrange game. It's possible he's a one-hit wonder, but I think more and more teams believe he's the same kid that ranked as one of the top five players in the country after his junior year of high school. He could be a great replacement for J.J. Hickson should he bolt in free agency this summer.
13
Michael Carter-Williams
Dallas Mavericks (0.6)
COLLEGE: SyracuseAGE: 21HT: 6-5WT: 175POS: PG
Analysis: The Mavs have been riding Darren Collison all season at the point and there's a chance they re-sign him as a restricted free agent this summer. Whether they do or don't, Carter-Williams seems like a safe play. When he's good, he looks like a top-five pick. When he's off, he doesn't look like a first-rounder. He's a good passer with great size for his position and a very smooth athlete. He lacks a jump shot and needs to get stronger, but there's so much potential there, the Mavs could swing for the fences with him at No. 13.
14
Mason Plumlee
Phoenix Suns via Los Angeles Lakers (0.5)
COLLEGE: DukeAGE: 23HT: 6-10WT: 230POS: PF
Analysis: The Suns will get this pick via the Lakers as part of the Steve Nash trade if L.A. ends up in the lottery. If the Suns go with a shooter with their first pick, don't be surprised if they try to add some size with their second one. Plumlee's combination of athleticism and size might make the most sense since, while he isn't exactly tough, he's tougher than most of the finesse young bigs on the roster.
15
Glenn Robinson III
Milwaukee Bucks
COLLEGE: MichiganAGE: 19HT: 6-6WT: 210POS: SF
Analysis: The Bucks don't have a lot going for them right now at the small forward position -- especially since sending Tobias Harris out of town in the J.J. Redikk deal. Robinson would give them yet another long, athletic forward who can fly up and down the floor. The difference with Robinson? He can shoot, and let's face it, there's some karma at play here, too. The Bucks drafted Robinson III's father with the No. 1 pick in 1994. Keep it in the family.
16
Kelly Olynyk
Boston Celtics
COLLEGE: GonzagaAGE: 21HT: 7-0WT: 238POS: C
Analysis: The Celtics definitely need size, and Olynyk is the sort of stretch big man that the team has liked in the past. His low-post game is still so-so, but he's a very difficult matchup on the high post. His ability to put the ball on the floor and get to the basket is special for a player his size. He could be a nice complement, in the long run, with Jared Sullinger.
17
C.J. McCollum
Utah Jazz
COLLEGE: LehighAGE: 21HT: 6-3WT: 190POS: PG
Analysis: The Jazz have been in the market for a point guard for a while and had their sights set on both Jimmer Fredette and Damian Lillard in the last two drafts only to lose them both. I'm not sure if McCollum is a true point guard, but I'm also not sure the Jazz need one as both Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks can handle the ball. What they really want is another shooter, and McCollum shot 51 percent from 3-point range before going down with a season-ending foot injury. He's one of the most dynamic scorers in the draft and some scouts believe he could be this year's Lillard.
18
Dario Saric
Atlanta Hawks
COLLEGE: CroatiaAGE: 19HT: 6-10WT: 223POS: SF
Analysis: There are mixed messages on whether Saric will enter the 2013 NBA draft. If he declares and slides this far, he probably won't stay in the draft. But if the Hawks can get their hands on him, they are getting a player with an off-the-charts basketball IQ who can play a lot of point forward in the pros. He's struggled a bit this year, but most international scouts in the know think the talent makes him worthy of a lottery pick. He's a great get here.
19
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Chicago Bulls
COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 20HT: 6-5WT: 190POS: SG
Analysis: Every year the Bulls are in the hunt for a shooter at the 2-guard position and every year they come up just a bit short. Landing Caldwell-Pope could be their lucky day, as he has both the size and shooting ability to be a serious threat in the NBA. He's played on such a poor team the past two years that his stock has fallen a bit, but if he's surrounded by other players who can score the ball (and he would be in Chicago), he could suddenly be the steal of the draft.
20
Jamaal Franklin
Atlanta Hawks via Houston Rockets
COLLEGE: San Diego St.AGE: 21HT: 6-5WT: 195POS: SG
Analysis: Franklin's game defies a position. He's a super-athletic wing who rebounds, plays above the rim and can do just about everything (but shoot) on the floor. The Hawks could really use a player like Franklin as a jack-of-all-trades coming off the bench.
21
Jeff Withey
Utah Jazz via Golden State Warriors
COLLEGE: KansasAGE: 23HT: 7-0WT: 235POS: C
Analysis: If the Jazz go small with their first pick, don't be surprised to see them go big with their second one. Al Jefferson will most likely leave over the summer and Derrick Favors would probably take over as the starting 5, but he'll need help. Withey isn't special on the offensive end, but he's a dominant shot blocker who stays out of foul trouble. They'll be able to find 15 minutes a night for him.
22
Gorgui Dieng
Brooklyn Nets
COLLEGE: LouisvilleAGE: 23HT: 6-11WT: 235POS: C
Analysis: The Nets could really use some backup help at the 5, and they need someone who can step in and play right now. Dieng drops a few spots on our board because of his age, but he should be a terrific fit as a backup to Brook Lopez in Brooklyn. The team could really use his shot-blocking abilities.
23
Rudy Gobert
Indiana Pacers
COLLEGE: FranceAGE: 20HT: 7-1WT: 220POS: PF
Analysis: The Pacers have plenty of young players and no real pressing needs right now. If there was a long-term replacement for David West here, they'd obviously take him. But without one, look for them to swing for the fences and take a player with huge upside in Gobert. He has a 7-foot-9 wingspan and is a good athlete. He's not ready for the NBA, but the Pacers will have the luxury of developing him over in France for the next couple of years.
24
Isaiah Austin
New York Knicks
COLLEGE: BaylorAGE: 19HT: 7-0WT: 215POS: PF
Analysis: Austin was hailed as a potential top-10 pick coming into the college season. However, he struggled a bit on both ends of the ball and scouts became wary. He needs a lot of work on both his body and his jump shot, but on long-term upside, he might be worth a shot here.
25
Allen Crabbe
Los Angeles Clippers
COLLEGE: CalAGE: 21HT: 6-6WT: 210POS: SG
Analysis: The Clippers could always use more shooting, and when Crabbe gets hot, he's very difficult to contain. He can be a bit lackadaisical on the defensive end, but at this point in the draft, he's a very good value.
26
Steven Adams
Minnesota Timberwolves via Memphis Grizzlies
COLLEGE: PittsburghAGE: 19HT: 7-0WT: 240POS: C
Analysis: Adams probably should've spent another year in school at Pittsburgh and played himself into the lottery. He's got that sort of talent. But he's so raw offensively, anyone that drafts him is going to have to be patient. On the defensive end, however? He can play right now.
27
James Michael McAdoo
Denver Nuggets
COLLEGE: North CarolinaAGE: 20HT: 6-9WT: 223POS: PF
Analysis: McAdoo was considered a potential top-five pick at the beginning of the season. But his lack of polish offensively and high turnover rate scared off scouts. There's no question he's an NBA athlete and has the body, but he's still a pretty big work in progress. The Nuggets could really use a little more help in the frontcourt and he could be a nice long-term investment.
28
Glen Rice Jr.
Oklahoma City Thunder
COLLEGE: Georgia TechAGE: 22HT: 6-5WT: 206POS: SG
Analysis: At the moment, Rice is dominating the D-League for the Rio Grande Vipers. He was dismissed from Georgia Tech last year, so he still has draft eligibility. Since being named a starter he's been averaging 17.6 ppg, shooting 42 percent from 3-point range and averaging eight rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. He looks like the sort of player the Thunder would steal late in the first round.
29
Kyle Anderson
San Antonio Spurs
COLLEGE: UCLAAGE: 19HT: 6-9WT: 235POS: SF
Analysis: Anderson might be the most eccentric player in the draft. Nicknamed "SloMo," he's a big point power forward who can handle the ball, make terrific passes and rebound. He could end up filling the same niche that Boris Diaw (his best comp) did.
30
P.J. Hairston
Cleveland Cavaliers via Miami Heat
COLLEGE: North CarolinaAGE: 20HT: 6-5WT: 220POS: SG
Analysis: The Cavaliers might have their backcourt of the future set, but they can always use depth. Hairston is big enough to play the 2 and the 3, and he can be a terrific shooter. He's also tough and aggressive and understands a role coming off the bench. The Cavs are big believers in the numbers, and all of Hairston's advanced statistic profiles come out high, so you could see him sneak into the first round.
Jamaal Franklin
Atlanta Hawks via Houston Rockets
COLLEGE: San Diego St.AGE: 21HT: 6-5WT: 195POS: SG
Analysis: Franklin's game defies a position. He's a super-athletic wing who rebounds, plays above the rim and can do just about everything (but shoot) on the floor. The Hawks could really use a player like Franklin as a jack-of-all-trades coming off the bench.
21
Jeff Withey
Utah Jazz via Golden State Warriors
COLLEGE: KansasAGE: 23HT: 7-0WT: 235POS: C
Analysis: If the Jazz go small with their first pick, don't be surprised to see them go big with their second one. Al Jefferson will most likely leave over the summer and Derrick Favors would probably take over as the starting 5, but he'll need help. Withey isn't special on the offensive end, but he's a dominant shot blocker who stays out of foul trouble. They'll be able to find 15 minutes a night for him.
22
Gorgui Dieng
Brooklyn Nets
COLLEGE: LouisvilleAGE: 23HT: 6-11WT: 235POS: C
Analysis: The Nets could really use some backup help at the 5, and they need someone who can step in and play right now. Dieng drops a few spots on our board because of his age, but he should be a terrific fit as a backup to Brook Lopez in Brooklyn. The team could really use his shot-blocking abilities.
23
Rudy Gobert
Indiana Pacers
COLLEGE: FranceAGE: 20HT: 7-1WT: 220POS: PF
Analysis: The Pacers have plenty of young players and no real pressing needs right now. If there was a long-term replacement for David West here, they'd obviously take him. But without one, look for them to swing for the fences and take a player with huge upside in Gobert. He has a 7-foot-9 wingspan and is a good athlete. He's not ready for the NBA, but the Pacers will have the luxury of developing him over in France for the next couple of years.
24
Isaiah Austin
New York Knicks
COLLEGE: BaylorAGE: 19HT: 7-0WT: 215POS: PF
Analysis: Austin was hailed as a potential top-10 pick coming into the college season. However, he struggled a bit on both ends of the ball and scouts became wary. He needs a lot of work on both his body and his jump shot, but on long-term upside, he might be worth a shot here.
25
Allen Crabbe
Los Angeles Clippers
COLLEGE: CalAGE: 21HT: 6-6WT: 210POS: SG
Analysis: The Clippers could always use more shooting, and when Crabbe gets hot, he's very difficult to contain. He can be a bit lackadaisical on the defensive end, but at this point in the draft, he's a very good value.
26
Steven Adams
Minnesota Timberwolves via Memphis Grizzlies
COLLEGE: PittsburghAGE: 19HT: 7-0WT: 240POS: C
Analysis: Adams probably should've spent another year in school at Pittsburgh and played himself into the lottery. He's got that sort of talent. But he's so raw offensively, anyone that drafts him is going to have to be patient. On the defensive end, however? He can play right now.
27
James Michael McAdoo
Denver Nuggets
COLLEGE: North CarolinaAGE: 20HT: 6-9WT: 223POS: PF
Analysis: McAdoo was considered a potential top-five pick at the beginning of the season. But his lack of polish offensively and high turnover rate scared off scouts. There's no question he's an NBA athlete and has the body, but he's still a pretty big work in progress. The Nuggets could really use a little more help in the frontcourt and he could be a nice long-term investment.
28
Glen Rice Jr.
Oklahoma City Thunder
COLLEGE: Georgia TechAGE: 22HT: 6-5WT: 206POS: SG
Analysis: At the moment, Rice is dominating the D-League for the Rio Grande Vipers. He was dismissed from Georgia Tech last year, so he still has draft eligibility. Since being named a starter he's been averaging 17.6 ppg, shooting 42 percent from 3-point range and averaging eight rebounds and 2.6 assists per game. He looks like the sort of player the Thunder would steal late in the first round.
29
Kyle Anderson
San Antonio Spurs
COLLEGE: UCLAAGE: 19HT: 6-9WT: 235POS: SF
Analysis: Anderson might be the most eccentric player in the draft. Nicknamed "SloMo," he's a big point power forward who can handle the ball, make terrific passes and rebound. He could end up filling the same niche that Boris Diaw (his best comp) did.
30
P.J. Hairston
Cleveland Cavaliers via Miami Heat
COLLEGE: North CarolinaAGE: 20HT: 6-5WT: 220POS: SG
Analysis: The Cavaliers might have their backcourt of the future set, but they can always use depth. Hairston is big enough to play the 2 and the 3, and he can be a terrific shooter. He's also tough and aggressive and understands a role coming off the bench. The Cavs are big believers in the numbers, and all of Hairston's advanced statistic profiles come out high, so you could see him sneak into the first round.
Matchups matter in the West
As we saw last week when looking at paths to the Eastern Conference finals, matchups matter in the NBA playoffs -- a lot. So shouldn't the best teams be able to choose their opponents? That's the logic the NBA D-League has applied to its postseason since 2009. The three D-League division champs get their choice of opponents, with the remaining two teams facing each other.
Let's take a look at what the Western Conference's top teams might choose if given that option, with one slight adjustment -- instead of using the three division champs, let's take the best three teams regardless of record as is the case with NBA seeding. We'll also look at the matchups each West playoff contender wants to see and those to avoid.
As with last week's column, I'm quantifying each team's chances of winning a given playoff matchup based on the historical relationship between head-to-head record -- a surprisingly important factor -- and point differential to series outcomes.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Want to See: Utah Jazz (97.7 percent chance of advancing)
Don't Want to See: Houston Rockets (87.3 percent chance of advancing)
ESPN colleague Marc Stein inspired this topic by arguing on Twitter Tuesday night that whoever claims the top seed in the Western Conference would prefer to avoid the talented Lakers in the opening round. Kobe Bryant agreed after the Lakers beat New Orleans to move closer to a playoff spot, telling reporters, "You can't find an opponent that's really excited about playing us in the first round. That's just the truth."
Alas, the numbers don't back that up. Oklahoma City would be at least a 95 percent favorite against either eighth seed, making the Lakers (or better yet the Utah Jazz) the choice over the Golden State Warriors. The worst-case scenario from the Thunder's standpoint would be slipping to second and seeing the Houston Rockets finish seventh. While Oklahoma City would still be a heavy favorite in that scenario, the Thunder can't relish the prospect of seven games against former star James Harden.
Looking further ahead, Oklahoma City would hate to see the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference finals. The Nuggets won the season series 3-1 and injured Danilo Gallinari wasn't a major factor in the four games, shooting just 31.1 percent from the field. In the semifinals, the Los Angeles Clippers look like a much more favorable matchup for the Thunder than the bruising Memphis Grizzlies, who took the series 2-1 and won in Oklahoma City in November.
Pick: Lakers (95.5 percent chance of advancing)/Jazz
2. San Antonio Spurs
Want to See: L.A. Lakers (97.5 percent chance of advancing)
Don't Want to See: Houston Rockets (83.2 percent chance of advancing)
The uncertain health of guards Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker has made the Spurs somewhat vulnerable to a first-round upset, but not likely against the Lakers, against whom they are 2-0. Their chances may be overstated because both head-to-head wins were close (San Antonio won by a combined five points, with one matchup remaining on Sunday in L.A.), but the Spurs have lost to each of the other lower playoff teams in the West.
In this draft scenario, either the Lakers or the Jazz would be off the board. That leaves San Antonio taking Golden State because of Houston's superior point differential this season.
Pick: Golden State Warriors (87.0 percent chance of advancing)
3. Denver Nuggets
Want to See: Houston Rockets (87.9 percent chance of advancing)
Don't Want to See: L.A. Clippers (68.0 percent chance of advancing)
The opportunity to make the last pick among opponents would be another benefit for whichever team among the Nuggets, L.A. Clippers and Memphis Grizzlies finishes third in the West. Because of the big gap between the conference's top five teams and the bottom three, the Rockets would be the near-certain pick for any third seed. However, nobody would enjoy that opportunity more than Denver, which swept Houston 4-0 head-to-head and just handed the Rockets an 18-point loss in the first game without Gallinari. The free-flowing game Houston prefers is ideal for the Nuggets, who love to push the tempo at altitude.
There are plenty of good matchups for Denver, which won the season series against every West playoff team except San Antonio. The Nuggets can still even up the record with the Spurs by winning tonight's possible playoff preview, televised on ESPN.
Pick: Rockets
4. L.A. Clippers
Want to See: Houston Rockets (77.0 percent chance of advancing)
Don't Want to See: Denver Nuggets (58.4 percent chance of advancing)
The Clippers surely want to make up the two-game deficit on the Nuggets to claim the third seed, but a first-round matchup against the Warriors would be no picnic for the Pacific Division champs. Golden State won three of the four meetings this season. In some ways, a rematch of last year's series with Memphis might be better for the Clippers. They've won two of the three games against the Grizzlies, but visit Memphis this Saturday in a game that could determine home-court advantage if they end up facing each other.
5. Memphis Grizzlies
Want to See: Golden State Warriors (91.3 percent chance of advancing)
Don't Want to See: Denver Nuggets (50.6 percent chance of advancing)
More than any other team in the West, the Grizzlies' chances of winning their first-round series depend on the matchup. Memphis would be nearly twice as likely to beat the Warriors as the third seed than the Nuggets. In fact, because of Denver's 3-1 head-to-head edge, a Grizzlies-Nuggets series would be a toss-up even if Memphis had home-court advantage. So if the Grizzlies can't get up to third, they'd prefer Denver stay there and on the opposite side of the bracket.
6. Golden State Warriors
Want to See: L.A. Clippers (31.3 percent chance of advancing)
Don't Want to See: Oklahoma City Thunder (5.8 percent chance of advancing)
The Warriors have gone a combined 6-11 against the five teams they might see in the first round of the playoffs, a bad sign for their chances of advancing. The exception, as noted above, is their 3-1 record against the Clippers. There's some lingering NorCal-SoCal bad blood between the two teams dating to Golden State celebrating a blowout win over the Clippers in early January. The Clippers responded with a blowout of their own at home, but the Warriors completed the season series by winning the final matchup a few weeks later.
7. Houston Rockets
Want to See: Memphis Grizzlies (27.8 percent chance of advancing)
Don't Want to See: Denver Nuggets (12.1 percent chance of advancing)
Because of James Harden and a fleet of 3-point shooters, Houston won't be an easy out for any team in the first round. Still, the Rockets have struggled against the West's better teams. They have a chance to even up the season series with Memphis by winning a showdown at the Toyota Center this Friday, but already have lost the head-to-head matchup to every other top-five West team. And, as noted, Houston wants no part of Denver in the playoffs.
8a. L.A. Lakers
Want to See: Oklahoma City Thunder (4.5 percent chance of advancing)
Don't Want to See: San Antonio Spurs (2.5 percent chance of advancing)
Based on those percentages of the Lakers pulling the upset, is the eighth seed really worth so much effort? Well, they're still much higher than the Lakers' chances of winning a series from the lottery, and with next year's pick already traded, the only potential damage is the mileage Kobe Bryant is putting on his knees playing heavy minutes down the stretch.
The Lakers' chances against San Antonio are slightly understated because of their meeting this Sunday. A Lakers win would push their percentages in that matchup all the way to 14.7 percent. Of course, a Lakers victory also would make it all the more likely that Oklahoma City finishes first in the West. And while the Lakers' home win over the Thunder in January might have been their best performance of the season, they still have shown no ability to play at such an elite level on a regular basis. It's hard to take the Lakers seriously as a postseason dark horse when they keep struggling to put away teams like New Orleans at home.
8b. Utah Jazz
Want to See: San Antonio Spurs (12.5 percent chance of advancing)
Don't Want to See: Oklahoma City Thunder (2.3 percent chance of advancing)
The Jazz got a look at a possible playoff matchup Tuesday, losing 90-80 to the Thunder at home. A Utah-Oklahoma City series has all the makings of a sweep. The Jazz have a better chance of making things interesting against San Antonio, having won the only meeting at home and taken the Spurs to overtime on the road.