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Who's helped most by J.J. Redikk?
With the trade deadline nine days away, one of the most prevalent names that keeps circling the rumor mill is that of Orlando Magic sharpshooter J.J. Redikk, whose actual availability is a matter of conjecture.
Redikk has been the subject of trade scuttlebutt all season, and it's easy to understand why. He's one of the best in the league at the long-range shot, and that's a skill that no team can really have enough of. Redikk is one of only 10 active shooters to have hit at least 40 percent of his career 3s (minimum of 500 makes.) He's a proven commodity.
Redikk is also on an expiring contract and plays for a rebuilding team. A more obvious trade target, you will not find. Whether or not Orlando wants to trade Redikk, NBA general managers might wear out the cell phone of Rob Hennigan, their Magic counterpart.
Over at ESPN Insider's Rumor Central, six teams have been mentioned as potential landing spots for Redikk over the past month: the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, New York Knicks, Chicago Bulls, Indiana Pacers and Denver Nuggets. That's five East teams chasing the Heat, plus a Nuggets squad trying to close the gap between themselves and the power teams atop the West standings.
The Knicks already rank second in the league in made 3s and sixth in percentage, and don't have much in the way of young assets, so we'll cut them out of the Redikk sweepstakes. The Celtics need the backcourt help, but don't have the young pieces either or expiring contracts to make a deal work. They're out.
The other four squads rank in the bottom half of the league in successful 3s, so the need is obvious. The question is, for a team landing Redikk, what kind of impact could it expect?
I took a stab at answering that by using ESPN's Trade Machine and plugging the reconfigured rosters into a simulation model. Here's who would benefit most from Redikk's skills, or what we'll refer to as the "Redikk Effect."
Indiana Pacers | Redikk Effect: Plus 5.2 wins
Why they need him: The Pacers are a great defensive team, but rank only 24th on the offensive end and are in the middle of the pack in 3-point shooting.
What they'd give up: Indiana owns all its first-round picks. What it doesn't have are any obvious trade candidates. Perhaps a pick plus a package of young players including Tyler Hansbrough, Miles Plumlee and Lance Stephenson might do the trick. The Pacers would have to get creative to make Redikk's $6.2 million salary work under the trade rules.
Rotation tweaks: We're more or less replacing Stephenson with Redikk in the rotation. Though, like Chicago, the Pacers have a returning star in Danny Granger, who should eventually push Paul George back to the 2. The Pacers have a 50.0 power rating so far this season. Re-figuring that with Granger, Indiana's baseline actually falls to 47.3, which harkens to our pessimistic preseason projections, but should improve with Redikk's 16.8 PER replacing Stephenson's 12.2.
What the sims say: Sure enough, the Pacers' baseline jumped to 52.5 with Redikk in and Stephenson out. It matters, but is it enough to get by Miami? Probably not, and it's questionable whether Indiana has the pieces to swing a deal anyway. But if the Pacers could land Redikk, he would boost Indiana's inconsistent attack.
Chicago Bulls | Redikk Effect: Plus 3.4 wins
Why they need him: The Bulls are 29th in the league in 3-pointers made. Just as crucial as a paucity of long-range shooters has been the absence of Derrick Rose and his ability to create open looks by contracting the defense. However, the Bulls could stand to upgrade the rotation spot that has been held down by veteran Richard Hamilton, especially with Rose on the cusp of returning.
What they'd give up: It'd have to be a pretty sweet package of young assets, because the Bulls aren't in a position to absorb any salary. They could send Orlando rookie first-rounder Marquis Teague and a couple of veterans who probably would be bought out -- Hamilton and Vladimir Radmanovic. They make the salaries work in this deal. A first-round pick would have to be included but probably not the pick Charlotte owes the Bulls, which is unprotected in 2016.
Rotation tweaks: We're basically talking about replacing Hamilton with Redikk in the Chicago rotation.
What the sims say: Over 82 games, the Bulls got an average of 3.4 extra wins from Redikk's presence, improving their baseline to 59.4 games. That's with Rose, and assumes he's at full strength. Between Redikk's shooting and Rose's everything, the Bulls jump to 11th in 3s made.
Denver Nuggets | Redikk Effect: Plus 1.4 wins
Why they need him: The Nuggets rank 19th in 3s made and 28th in percentage. They really need another shooter to get them through Danilo Gallinari's bad shooting nights. Marginal gains could be huge for a team hovering on the fringe of title contention, but who gets their playing time cut?
What they'd give up: The Nuggets own a $13 million trade exception, so if they're willing to spend the luxury tax money, they can absorb Redikk's contract with no problem. It's just a matter of finding a package of young assets the Magic like. Orlando already has a pick via Denver as a byproduct of the Dwight Howard trade last summer, but the Nuggets have another they could send along. The Nuggets' 2012 first-rounder, Evan Fournier, might have to go as well.
Rotation tweaks: The Nuggets currently go nine deep; with Redikk, George Karl would juggle 10 players. This probably would cut into Corey Brewer's time a bit, among others.
What the sims say: Denver begins with a 55.2 power rating in my system, fifth best in the league. To work in Redikk, the Nuggets probably would have to play small more often, with Gallinari playing more 4 and Kenneth Faried more 5. On paper, the trade-off helps, but the margin is thin -- Denver's win baseline edges up to 56.6, still shy of the big three in the West. It's probably not worth the tax dollars when Karl already has so much to work with.
Milwaukee Bucks | Redikk Effect: Plus 1.1 wins
Why they need him: Brandon Jennings is Milwaukee's only real 3-point threat from the backcourt.
What they'd give up: The Bucks could send a first-rounder and/or a young piece such as Ekpe Udoh or Tobias Harris, while moving Beno Udrih to make the salaries work. Milwaukee would have to take on additional salary, perhaps Josh McRoberts.
Rotation tweaks: Redikk would essentially replace Udrih in the near term as a backup to Jennings and Monta Ellis, who has an expiring contract and might be on the trade block himself. So the Bucks could angle to keep Redikk as a third guard beyond this season while seeking out a rangier wing to pair with Jennings.
What the sims say: Redikk would be marginalized in a backcourt rotation that features two ball-dominant guards, and it would be really tough to play them all together and field a semblance of an NBA-quality defense. The end result is a win total that is improved, but not by enough to move the needle. If Milwaukee splurges on Redikk, it's with the idea of him being a long-term roster upgrade.
So while the Pacers stand to gain the most from acquiring Redikk, the pieces aren't necessarily there to make the deal happen. That really leaves the Bulls as the best landing spot for Redikk -- a team that not only benefits from Redikk's skills but also has the assets to send back to Orlando. They tried to get him once before, so there's interest. A Rose-Redikk backcourt could do significant damage down the stretch as Rose regains his All-Star form.
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Is Milwaukee a good fit for Eric Gordon?
The NBA's highly anticipated trade deadline is this Thursday, and there continues to be buzz that New Orleans could deal Eric Gordon. Dallas, Houston and Golden State are three teams reported to be interested in the sweet-shooting two-guard out of Indiana, but Milwaukee could offer a good fit.
Here's the thing about Milwaukee. The Bucks currently have two talented guards in Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis that probably aren't long for the roster. The feeling is that Jennings' decision to recently change agents was made to set him up for a big pay day in a bigger market, and just yesterday Gary Washburn of the Boston Globe wrote that Ellis is expected to decline his $11 million player option for next season and become a free agent.
It's clear that the Bucks need more stability and certainty in the backcourt going forward, and the irony is that Gordon -- someone who has done the exact opposite in New Orleans -- is a player who might be able to offer it in Milwaukee. Now, this is pure speculation on my part, but if Milwaukee offered up Ellis and a young talent like Tobias Harris for Gordon, which team would say no?
Such a deal would not only work, it would also allow Milwaukee to get past the Ellis era with a young player in Gordon who is from the Midwest and also signed for three seasons beyond this one. Adding a talent the caliber of Gordon via the free agent route is pretty much out of the question in Milwaukee, and other than getting lucky in the draft this is one of the only ways the Bucks can add a borderline star. The big question is whether Gordon would stop being a headache in Milwaukee, and if he could stay injury-free as well.
From New Orleans' perspective, they would be able to shed the money owed to Gordon and also would get a dynamic scorer in Ellis who is from the South and thus, might be more inclined to return for $11 million (his player option) with the Pelicans next season. On top of that, adding someone like Harris would give New Orleans a young talent with big potential at their weakest position.
Again, this is pure speculation, and it'd be a serious roll of the dice by both teams, but it's a trade that makes a lot of sense on a number of levels.
Seven trades that should happen
If research from ESPN Stats & Information is any indication, we're in for plenty of jersey-swapping this week. Over the past five trade deadlines, we've seen about seven deals (7.2 to be exact) on deadline day. That, coincidentally, is the same number of trades that Memphis VP of basketball ops John Hollinger predicted would go down leaguewide by Thursday.
If that's the case, here are seven deals that I'd like to see go down, given each team's strengths and weaknesses and cap situation.
1. Eric Bledsoe to the Jazz
Utah Jazz receive: Eric Bledsoe, Caron Butler and Ronny Turiaf. Los Angeles Clippers receive: Paul Millsap and Alec Burks.
The Utah Jazz have one of those "good problems" on their hands: They have too many starter-quality big men on their roster. This puts them in a very desirable position at the trade deadline because they possess a surplus that can be used to fill a need (backcourt help).
Enter Eric Bledsoe. The rumored swap (detailed in-depth here by our own Bradford Doolittle) makes sense on almost every level for the Jazz. They net a potential star in Bledsoe while giving up Millsap, who may be nothing more than a temporary placeholder for Derrick Favors or Enes Kanter in Utah's frontcourt. Bledsoe is averaging 15.9 points, 5.5 assists and 5.2 rebounds every 36 minutes this season, and Utah would have every reason to give him that kind of playing time.
As for the Clippers? Millsap would help raise the team's No. 21 ranking in defensive rebounding rate and give them some much-needed scoring punch down low. Lamar Odom was supposed to be that guy, but he's scored double digits just once this season. The Clippers could go big and slot the 6-foot-8 Millsap at the 3, which would give them one of the league's most formidable frontcourts. Would it guarantee a better shot at the title? It's certainly a safer bet than Odom's becoming a reliable NBA player again.
2. Kevin Garnett to the Thunder
Boston Celtics receive: Toronto's first-round pick, Kendrick Perkins, Eric Maynor and Perry Jones.
Oklahoma City Thunder receive: Kevin Garnett, Chris Wilcox and Jason Collins.
We going to fall for this again? Few people remember this, but Garnett told everyone in June 2007 that he wouldn't accept a trade to Boston. And then, of course, he did. So take Garnett's recent insistence that he won't waive his no-trade clause with a grain of salt. As Garnett famously howled once before, anything's possible.
Garnett in OKC makes almost too much sense on the court. Something tells me Garnett wants to win a title above all else and Boston probably can't do that for him anymore, not with Rondo out of the picture. Now that the Lakers and Grizzlies have fallen out of the title-contention circle, Perkins doesn't make sense on the roster. Garnett, as a defensive maestro and leader, does.
Of course, Boston doesn't even think about this deal unless they've committed to rebuild, rebuild, rebuild. That Toronto pick could easily end up in the top seven once Rudy Gay decides to stop making every do-or-die shot at the buzzer. And if healthy, Perry Jones has about as high of a ceiling as any player in the draft (to reiterate: if healthy). Boston probably balks at this deal even with the young, high-upside pieces, but it's too tantalizing from OKC's standpoint not to mention.
3. J.J. Redikk to the Denver Nuggets
Denver Nuggets receive: J.J. Redikk.
Orlando Magic receive: Timofey Mozgov, 2016 Knicks first-round pick.
Look around the league, and it's hard to find a team that couldn't use a player like Redikk, who is shooting and dishing (five assists per 36 minutes) like a lesser version of Stephen Curry this season. But the Denver Nuggets stand out because they rank sixth-worst in 3-point percentage and have a massive $13 million trade exception from the Nene trade last season.
After a hot start, Corey Brewer has shot a putrid 23 percent from downtown since Jan. 1, which wouldn't be so bad if he didn't think he was Steve Kerr out there. Brewer is probably more suited to be a defensive specialist than a "3-and-D" player, and Redikk would give the Nuggets the spacing they desperately need.
The Magic won't give up Redikk for nothing, which is why the Nuggets could toss in the 2016 first-rounder from the Knicks along with a serviceable young big in Mozgov, who probably deserves more PT than he's gotten in Denver. Such a deal would -- and let's be honest -- allow the Magic to chase a top-three pick in next season's draft and net another pick down the line. Redikk makes much more sense for a contender; otherwise, his talents will be wasted on a basement-dwelling team.
4. Steve Nash to the Indiana Pacers
Indiana Pacers receive: Steve Nash, Metta World Peace, Jordan Hill and Steve Blake.
Los Angeles Lakers receive: Danny Granger, George Hill, Lance Stephenson and Ben Hansbrough.
It's just too painful to watch Nash's talents go to waste inside the ongoing circus in Laker Land. Dwight Howard appears to be allergic to running the pick-and-roll with Nash, which is a basketball crime of the highest degree. Not to mention, Kobe Bryant is now splitting ballhandling duty, which strips Nash of his wizard-like talents with the rock.
Indiana would be a brilliant landing spot for the two-time MVP, even aside from the obvious fact that Nash looks like he could step in right away for a "Hoosiers" remake. The Pacers rank 24th on offense and sorely need an injection of offensive creativity. Nash hasn't penetrated the paint as he has in the past, but he may just need a change in scenery. And Granger becomes a bit superfluous with Paul George's ascension. Metta World Peace's return to Indiana is a whole separate matter.
As with the Boston scenario above, the Lakers would have be on board with the idea that building for the future is more valuable than a slight chance at a first-round exit this season. In the short term, Hill would give the Lakers a much stronger defensive presence on the ball, and Granger (if and when he's healthy) could help buoy the offense without Nash. A 2013 playoff push wouldn't be ruled out, and Granger becomes a free agent just in time for the 2014 free-agent sweepstakes. This a deal that probably won't happen, but Nash's leading the Pacers against the Heat would be fantastic postseason theater.
5. Josh Smith to the Spurs
San Antonio Spurs receive: Josh Smith, Zaza Pachulia, Ivan Johnson.
Atlanta Hawks receive: Tiago Splitter, Stephen Jackson, Boris Diaw, future first-round pick.
What could an athletic marvel like Josh Smith become under the guidance of coach Gregg Popovich? The Spurs could look to stand pat at the deadline and try again to win the Western Conference finals for the first time since 2008. But with OKC and the Clippers looking strong as ever, the Spurs may want to go all-in while they still can.
Smith would arrive with the obvious red flags: maddening shot selection, occasional defensive apathy and a maturity level that has led to team-administered suspensions. But Popovich has worked wonders before (look no further than this version of Boris Diaw) and the Spurs could use an injection of youth for the stretch run, especially if the 35-year-old Ginobili continues to be limited with a pesky hamstring strain.
Ideally, the Hawks could pry Kawhi Leonard from the Spurs, but the prospect of landing Splitter may be enough. For the second straight season, Splitter has a 20-plus player efficiency rating and per-minute numbers that scream above-average starter. As an efficient post presence, he'd fit well next to an inside-out talent like Al Horford, perhaps more so than Smith. Jackson is mostly a salary dump, and the future first-rounder would offset having to take on Diaw. All in all, the Hawks stay flexible long term without losing Smith for nothing.
6. Tyreke Evans to 76ers
Philadelphia 76ers receive: Tyreke Evans.
Sacramento Kings receive: Evan Turner and Arnett Moultrie.
The ultimate "change of scenery" trade. With the Kings in the midst of a possible sale, it's highly unlikely they would sign off on a deadline deal involving Evans, who was once considered the future of the franchise. But even so, it's clear that the partnership with DeMarcus Cousins and Evans isn't working; the Kings have lost by 7.8 points per 48 minutes with that duo on the court, which is somehow worse than the team's average score margin overall.
The Kings and 76ers find themselves in similar predicaments with Evans and Turner. Like Evans, Turner hasn't found his groove since being a top-five pick, and the Philadelphia organization has clearly (and justifiably) favored another youngster (Jrue Holiday). Aside from an improved 3-point shot, Turner has been stuck in neutral since his debut season, and with a 12.7 PER he remains one of the biggest busts in recent drafts.
The Kings would probably need another asset besides Turner since Evans is the superior player. Moultrie may not be enough to make it worthwhile, but Lavoy Allen isn't exactly lighting the NBA on fire, either. Still, something feels right about a swap centered around Turner and Evans. Both franchises could use some fresh faces on the floor.
7. Al Jefferson to the Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns receive Al Jefferson, Mo Williams and Earl Watson. Utah Jazz receive Goran Dragic, Marcin Gortat, Channing Frye and Wesley Johnson. The deal in Trade Machine.
A straight salary dump for a Suns franchise that is going nowhere and fast. Like the Dallas Mavericks, the Utah Jazz have an array of expiring contracts that could be attractive for teams looking to slash long-term payroll. By firing coach Al Gentry earlier this season, the Suns have clearly waved the white flag on 2012-13, and starting from scratch appears to be the No. 1 priority going forward. If there is a priority list.
At this point, the Suns should engage in full-out tank mode for the top pick in the draft, even though University of Kentucky star Nerlens Noel recently tore his ACL. Dealing Dragic and Gortat now would probably ensure a top-three pick, especially with a healthy John Wall steering the Wizards out the basement.
If the Jazz can't land Bledsoe, they should direct their attention to Dragic, who is quietly delivering another solid campaign at 26 years old. He's young enough to grow with Favors and Kanter, but savvy enough to make some noise in the playoffs with this Jazz crew. Gortat's contract expires after the 2013-14 season and he could be trade bait at the end of the season if he doesn't fit with the team's plans long term.
god shamgod
Veteran
Anatomy of a 'perfect' trade
During trade deadline season, we'll see teams make deals that don't necessarily align with organizational objectives, often in a desperate play for a greater reward (winning a championship). I wrote about this phenomenon and called it "the ecstasy of gold" in my column about deals that do and don't work. The idea isn't that contenders should be risk averse, but rather they should strive to make calculated risks in acquiring players that not only fit a basketball need, but also fit the culture, ideals and values of the team.
Let's examine one of the rumors -- J.J. Redikk to the Chicago Bulls -- that I felt satisfied these tenets and dissect what comprises a "perfect" trade for a team and determine why this is perfect for Chicago in particular (while still maintaining a sense of reality; no Carlos Boozer for LeBron James angles).
The principal: J.J. Redikk
Redikk has improved immensely as a player since coming out of Duke in 2006. In college, he was a volume scorer, albeit efficient: his usage percentage his senior season was 28.9 percent (versus the "average" player's share at 20 percent) with an effective field goal percentage (eFG%) of 57.7 and a 63 percent true shooting clip. He excelled coming off screens and the system was geared to getting him shot attempts. Defensively, many would argue that he benefitted more from the "Duke mystique" than any individual tenacity.
When he got to the league, Redikk initially struggled to adjust from being the focal point of an offensive system designed to get him shots to being a spacer for Dwight Howard, a release valve for defensive pressure, with shot opportunities coming irregularly, though he still managed to be an efficient 3-point shooter, never shooting less than 37.0 percent in his career.
Over time, Redikk made the adjustments to his game, becoming a better player off the dribble, particularly in pick-and-roll situations. Defensively, he's improved to be a solid, even underrated, defender; he does a good job of locking and trailing players off screens, and he limits penetration in on-ball situations by sending toward the help defense.
But make no mistake, Redikk's bread and butter is shooting the ball, and in the post-Dwight era he's enjoying an offensive freedom (usage percentage: 21.6) that's allowed him to average a career-high 15.6 points per game on 55.6 eFG% (including 39.3 3-point shooting percentage). It's that attribute that makes him an attractive option for the Bulls.
The team: Chicago Bulls
At 31-22, the Bulls have outperformed most expectations without their leader, Derrick Rose. They are a game behind Indiana for the Central Division crown, and a half game behind Brooklyn from a home-court advantage seed in the playoffs. No surprise, their success comes mostly from the defensive end: they are fourth in the NBA in defensive efficiency (101.7) and second in eFG% allowed (46.6). On the other hand, they have struggled scoring the ball, with the 10th worst offensive efficiency (103.5) and third worst eFG% (46.8).
Adding Redikk would not only bolster their perimeter shooting (Bulls rank 24th in NBA in eFG%), but also would add another playmaking guard to create for others. Looking forward to after Rose's return, Redikk presents a perfect complement, as he provides elite spacing ability, not just by his shooting, but by keeping defenses "hugged up" on him because of his shooting presence (something the Bulls have lacked since Kyle Korver was traded to Atlanta). This creates more driving lanes for the attacking Rose. Another crucial point to remember: unlike many other elite shooters, Redikk is not a defensive liability, so his skill set is really tailor-made for the Bulls' system as a whole.
The "other" team: Orlando Magic
The Magic are in full-blown rebuild mode, and Redikk is an asset with an expiring contract, meaning if they don't capitalize by moving him now, they risk losing him for nothing this summer. As with any rebuilding team, the goal in any deal should always be maintaining financial flexibility and recouping assets in the form of young talent (on rookie scale) and draft picks.
The deal
Chicago trades: Richard Hamilton, Marquis Teague, Vladimir Radmanovic, future first-round pick, cash considerations
Chicago receives: JJ Redikk, future second-round pick (top 45 protected)
Hamilton's deal calls for him to make $5 million this season and $5 million next, but just $1 million is guaranteed if he is waived by July 10, 2013. Radmanovic is on the veteran's minimum, so he makes $1.35 million this season but appears as just $854,389 on the cap. Teague is on the first year of a four-year, $5 million rookie scale contract, with team options on the third and fourth years. He's a young prospect with a low, flexible contract who plays a position of need for Orlando (point guard), and is only a year removed from being on national championship team at Kentucky.
An unprotected first-round pick would give Orlando a second asset in return for Redikk. Chicago would have to throw in some cash to compensate for Hamilton's $1 million 2013-14 guarantee, as well as the uptick in salaries that Orlando would be responsible for this season (paying these players $6.7 million versus $6.2 million for Redikk). The second-round pick Chicago receives is protected, so the Bulls wouldn't get it until Orlando is competitive again.
In order to work under the NBA salary-cap rules, the incoming salaries Chicago absorbs cannot be more than 125 percent of the outgoing salaries, plus $100,000, since the Bulls are taxpayers. To make matters more complicated, Chicago is hard capped at $74 million in payroll this season; this means that when a team uses exceptions designated for non-taxpayers, it is not allowed to "game the system" by going over the tax apron (designated as $4 million above the tax threshold) after the fact.
So, despite technically being able to take trade Hamilton straight up for Redikk, Chicago is prevented from doing so because that would take the payroll above the tax apron, necessitating the need for including Radmanovic and Teague.
The most pressing concern in this deal is Orlando might deem other offers on the table to be more lucrative than what amounts to Teague and a first-round pick. They might also balk on sending Chicago the protected second-round pick, which isn't a deal-breaker for the Bulls, but provides some measure of insurance against one of their main concerns: the inability to retain Redikk past this season.
Recent reports indicate Redikk will be seeking a deal worth up to $40 million over four years this summer, and many have speculated that he'll command at least $7-8 million a year. Conservatively assuming Redikk would accept $7 million as a starting salary puts Chicago's payroll next season at almost $80 million, which carries with it the new hefty incremental tax penalties. The Bulls have traditionally been a tax-averse team, so that would pretty much necessitate either the trade of Boozer to a team significantly under the cap, or using the amnesty provision on him, options that have been openly discussed before.
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what type of fukkery is this BULLshyt
no disrespect homie -it aint no way people should pay to read garbage like this
FreedS[ohh]lave
Banned
FreedS[ohh]lave;3383704 said:
Starting 5: Class of 2014 stars
This week's edition of Starting 5 includes a look at Indiana trying to close out a top junior, why the 2014 class has taken center stage, an introduction to freshman Trent Forrest, revisiting the best available seniors, and how much of a toll the spring and summer takes on top recruits.
1. Indiana trying to close out elite junior
The head coach of the nation's top college basketball team found himself in Charlotte, N.C., on Saturday night. Indiana coach Tom Crean and assistant Kenny Johnson sat courtside for the 3-A North Carolina Independent Schools state championship. Crean flew in and joined Johnson, who'd already seen the quarterfinals and semis of the event.
Crean made his statement. He's in enemy territory and he's on the prowl.
One of Indiana's top targets in the 2014 class is small forward Theo Pinson (Greensboro, N.C./Wesleyan Christian). Pinson visited IU earlier this month and the Hoosiers returned the favor over the weekend by watching him play the final three games of his junior season. They were courtside when he won the state championship and clapped when he was named all-state. Indiana did all it could last week in its pursuit of Pinson, the No. 13-ranked prospect in the ESPN 60.
Pinson noticed. He said Indiana is on him harder than anyone else. Duke, North Carolina, Memphis, NC State and Georgetown also are recruiting him, but none with the intensity of the Hoosiers.
Indiana's intention, judging by its actions, is to try to close Pinson before the spring evaluation period. You don't spend this much time on a player who grew up on Tobacco Road and not ask for a commitment. IU was the only school on Pinson's list to see him the final two days of the event. Crean has to be hoping that counts for something.
The Indiana train is rolling with Pinson and it's puffing steam. If this continues to go unchecked, Pinson could find himself playing basketball outside his home state. No one is pushing as hard as the Hoosiers for his pledge.
Pinson has been on Duke's campus before, but it doesn't seem as though the Blue Devils have gone all-in. Behind the scenes, Duke would be capable of closing the gap between another school and the Hoosiers. The question is, will they bring the heat or do the Hoosiers continue to rack up points with their intense pursuit?
2. Class of 2014 getting itchy to decide?
Thirteen members of the ESPN 60 already have made commitments, and it seems the players in the 2014 class are itching to make moves. In the past 10 days, Louisville landed No. 51 junior Shaqquan Aaron (Los Angeles/Rainier Beach) and Arizona scored No. 30 Parker Jackson-Cartwright (Los Angeles/Loyola).
It's getting to the point where we're almost expecting at least one junior commitment per week.
Over the weekend, another strong group of juniors made the rounds for unofficial visits. On Friday night, No. 1 junior point guard Tyus Jones (Apple Valley, Minn./Apple Valley) won a conference championship. By Saturday afternoon he was in Lawrence, Kan., sitting next to top-10 junior wing Justise Winslow (Houston/St. John's) at a Kansas home game.
Down in Chapel Hill, meanwhile, North Carolina hosted No. 19 junior Devin Booker (Moss Point, Miss./Moss Point) on Saturday before Duke offered him a ticket and a tour Sunday. And in Gainesville, Fla., the Gators spent quality time with ESPN 60 power forward Payton Dastrup (Mesa, Ariz./Mountain View).
Three of the 13 ESPN 60 players who have committed took advantage of the new NCAA rule allowing recruits to take official visits starting Jan. 1 of their junior year. All of the unofficials over the weekend weren't just tickets to games; these kids were traveling, touring and spending quality time with the staffs at the respective schools.
There's a serious tone to these early trips, as colleges know there's a finite amount of quality time you can spend with a kid. Maxing out that time is paramount to future success.
3. Freshman Orientation: Trent Forrest
There are roughly 4,000 people who live in Chipley, Fla. Based purely on the math, the odds of the community cranking out a high-major recruit aren't that good. Well, apparently Chipley will beat the odds because Trent Forrest, a 6-foot-3 shooting guard, is on the radar.
"This kid is one of the top five to 10 players in the class," a friend recently texted after seeing him. "He is a BEAST."
Well, it remains to be seen if Forrest can live up the advance billing, but his high school coach has watched him enough to know he has a special player on his hands.
"He's an A student, high character, likeable by his peers and faculty," Chipley coach Joe Orlando said. "He's a kid that's neat to be around. Even my dog likes him, and my dog doesn't like a lot of people.
"This is a 14-year-old with a size-14 shoe with hands as big as a bear. He won't be 15 until the summer. You're dealing with a young kid who is extremely mature for his age. What he does on the court shapes your whole idea about him."
As a freshman, Forrest pumped in 23 points a game this season. Florida State has been in to see him and he attended a Central Florida game over the weekend. In the spring, he'll run with the Alabama Challenge travel squad.
"During every lunch period at school, he grabs a bite to eat and goes and works on his free throws," Orlando said. "He's got a passion and desire to be the best. On the court, he's 6-3 and he can go left or right. He loves to play defense. He's smooth and mentally very tough. He's beyond his years."
4. Revisiting the five best available
Here's a quick pre-spring rundown of the five best available recruits left in the Class of 2013:
1. Andrew Wiggins, SF: Florida State and Kentucky are in the upper tier. The guess here is that North Carolina and Kansas need powerful official visits to slide into the upper echelon in his recruitment.
2. Julius Randle, PF: Following a visit from NC State last week, Randle shut down his recruitment. In layman's terms, that means he has a pretty good idea of where he wants to go and doesn't feel comfortable keeping everyone's hopes up. Where is he going? Geesh, no clue. Kansas, Texas, Florida, Kentucky, NC State and Oklahoma remain in the mix.
3. Aaron Gordon, PF: Gordon's recent curveball with Oregon (the Ducks were out and now they're back in) caught us off guard, so now Arizona, Washington, Kentucky and Oregon comprise the finalists. My guess is an April decision for Gordon.
4. Rysheed Jordan, PG: Depending on whom you speak with, you'll hear a different school between UCLA, St. John's and Temple. At this point, put them in a hat, go best-of-three and we'll endorse the result.
5. Keith Frazier, SG: SMU, Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Auburn are in the mix. Looking back on his biggest night of the season, an ESPN-televised game in December, Auburn's Tony Barbee and SMU's Larry Brown were in attendance. I'm not sure what that means, but it makes for an interesting note.
5. Spring and summer wear and tear
Do today's high school prospects play too much basketball? Does the increased game action and wear and tear of travel lead to more injuries? I'm of the opinion it does. There's only so much tread on the tires. Youth or not, the body needs rest.
Not everyone shares this opinion, but it's something worth paying attention to. We're about to enter the busy spring AAU season, followed immediately by the summer camp and travel team season. Current seniors Jabari Parker, Julius Randle, Dakari Johnson, Aaron Gordon, Andrew Harrison, Aaron Harrison and Jermaine Lawrence are all top-25 players who missed time this season.
Injuries happen, I get it, but I can't help but think all the basketball takes its toll. And some players agree.
"I think the summer, a couple of events, I had a long, tough summer," said Arizona commit Jackson-Cartwright, who missed 12 games this season with a stress reaction in his foot. "It was a lot of wear and tear on my body, and my foot was a result of all that.
"These events are important and I take them seriously, but to do all of them including the EYBL could be a lot. I think I have to pick my events to be healthy."
As a scout, selfishly, I'd like to see guys play as much as possible. However, that may not be what's best for the game. Maybe less is more. It might ultimately be better for prospects to play at a high level in fewer events than at a mediocre level in every event while putting stress on their bodies.
D-I prospects on display in North Carolina
CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- The NCISAA, North Carolinas independent schools association, handed out titles in three divisions this past weekend. At least 31 Division I prospects were on display during Friday and Saturdays action, including an ESPN 60 recruit and arguably the nations top freshman.
Heres a look at some of the top players who stood out from the NCISAA state championships.
Best Prospect
Harry Giles (Winston-Salem, N.C./Wesleyan Christian)
2016, PF, 6-9, 210
Status: Early interest from Duke, North Carolina, NC State, Kentucky and elite teams with championship aspirations
On April 22, Giles turns 15. Think about that for a second. Already an all-state player, Giles is one of the best young prospects to come through North Carolina in a decade. After struggling to finish in the semifinals, Giles rose to the moment in the championship game. Blessed with an uncanny natural feel, hes a threat as a post scorer, face-and-drive forward and passer. His four-minute stretch of buckets, assists and blocked shots salted the title game away for Wesleyan. If he isnt already, Giles will be a primary contender for No. 1 overall prospect in 2016.
Best Senior
Josh Newkirk (Raleigh, N.C./Word of God)
2013, PG, 6-2, 175
Status: Signed with Pittsburgh
In his final high school game, Newkirk scored 20 points and handed out five assists. Hes difficult to guard, and Pittsburgh hasnt had a backcourt player with his speed in quite some time. Newkirk is confident in his driving and mid-range jump shot. Hell complement James Robinson and give the Panthers a guy who can step on the gas as needed. Adjusting speeds in the half court and valuing the ball are areas for improvement.
Best Junior
Theo Pinson (Greensboro, N.C./Wesleyan Christian)
2014, SF, 6-6, 185
Status: Offers from Indiana, Duke, North Carolina, Memphis, NC State and Georgetown
The No. 13 junior helped deliver a state championship to Wesleyan. Following a dominating 28-point, six-rebound performance in the semis, Pinson went cold in the title game, shooting 2-for-13. However, his eight second-half rebounds were big. We talk about guys digging down when things arent going their way, and thats what he did in the second half of the title game. Pinson also has the ability to be a lock-down defensive player.
Biggest Motor
Keyshawn Woods (Gastonia, N.C./Northside Christian)
2014, SF, 6-3, 175
Status: Davidson and Charlotte are strong with traction from Appalachian State, Niagara and Radford
Pressing, up-tempo teams will place a high value on Woods, who excels in transition, will hawk the basketball and makes good decisions on the break. Hes a consummate energy giver and athleticism is not a problem. Hes only 6-foot-3 but rangy. Theres something to be said for guys who are constantly involved in the action.
Top Scorer
James Demery (Wilson, N.C./Northside Christian)
2014, SG, 6-4, 175
Status: East Carolina and Virginia Tech have offered
In two games, Demery averaged 21.5 points and shot 18 free throws. Hes wired to score with a preference for driving. His perimeter shot during the semis and finals wasnt locked in, so he took to driving the ball. He has a burst and knack for finishing. The next step in his evolution is steadying the perimeter shot with a splash of mid-range game. Demerys team cruised to the 2-A state title.
Best Shooter
Camden Scott (Raleigh, N.C./Word of God)
2013, SG, 6-1, 170
Status: Undecided (likely needs junior college)
This young man stood behind the arc, waited for Josh Newkirk to pitch it to him and then buried 3-pointers. In the 1-A state semifinals, Scott made nine 3-pointers. In the championship game he followed with an 8-for-11 performance from beyond the arc in the first half. Thats 17 3-pointers in the final two games of his high school career. His academics are shaky, so junior college may be in order.
Most Improved
Jackson Kent (Greensboro, N.C./High Point Christian)
2013, SF, 6-5, 175
Status: Signed with James Madison
Two years ago Kent was not a Division I player. This weekend he put his team on his back and nearly sprung an upset in the semifinals. Known as a shooter, his game has expanded to the point where he is a threat as a creator as well. He needs a weight program, but expect to see him making contributions to the Dukes as a sophomore.
Five to watch for:
Freshman point guard Junior Smith (Fayetteville, N.C./Trinity Christian) is a high-major prospect. Hes 6-2 with a solid frame, passing ability and a jump shot. In a state title game against a senior headed to the ACC, he didnt flinch.
Smiths 2016 teammate is Kwe Parker, a 6-1 athlete who can also play the point. Twice he was on the receiving end of alley-oops from Smith. Two freshmen in the title game tossing alley-oops to each other gives Trinity Christian the most promising young backcourt in North Carolina.
Greensboro Day featured five seniors, each a Division I prospect. Guards Reed Lucas (Army prep school), Reggie Dillard (Presbyterian), Montrel Goldston (undecided) and Jonathan Terry (Navy) joined forward Christian Hairston (Furman).
Wesleyan junior Donovan Gilmore is an undersized 4-man who will receive heavy attention from Southern Conference programs.
Christ School, the program that produced all three Plumlee brothers, started an eighth-grader, wing man D.J. Harvey. The 6-4 athlete played with zero fear.
Regrading the 2012 NFL draft
How can I hand out grades immediately after the NFL draft? Why not? I just have to be clear on context. I simply use my player evaluations at the time to gauge how well teams maximized value at each draft slot and addressed personnel needs. This is what we ended up with last April. But if I'm going to hand out grades then, something many could consider unfair, it's only right that we all take a look back to see how I did and hand out some new grades now that we have some results to evaluate.
So let's do that, and keep me accountable. Overall, there were a number of rookies who proved more valuable than I imagined at the time -- check out the Seahawks -- but there are also many grades that still look pretty reasonable today. And obviously, there's still so much to find out, because so many players are just getting started. In April, we lined this up best grades to worst, but for this one, it's organized by division.
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 10 CB Stephon Gilmore South Carolina
(2) 41 G Cordy Glenn Georgia
(3) 69 WR T.J. Graham North Carolina State
(4) 105 LB Nigel Bradham Florida State
(4) 124 CB Ron Brooks LSU
(5) 144 T Zebrie Sanders Florida State
(5) 147 LB Tank Carder TCU
(6) 178 G Mark Asper Oregon
(7) 251 K John Potter Western Michigan
Post-draft grade: B-
Summary: Buffalo fans might view this re-assessment as a little harsh. From a fan's standpoint, you can say the team landed starters at a few spots, which ostensibly means they drafted well. The flip side is you have to consider if those players are starting on a better team. Take second-round pick Cordy Glenn, for example. I really liked Glenn, and he was a regular on my Big Board last year, but I had questions about whether he could be an effective left tackle due to a lack of quickness. Well, he started there for Buffalo this season and held up reasonably well against low expectations, but the tape shows a player that wasn't among the top 20-25 left tackles in the NFL. Should he remain there? We still need to find out. But he wouldn't start there for most teams. Nigel Bradham also became a starter at linebacker, but that's a weakness for Buffalo, a team that couldn't stop anybody from running. T.J. Graham came on a little late in the season and could be a good player for the offense. Stephon Gilmore could be a good one, but he had major trouble with penalties. No obvious sleepers here. The grade stays basically the same as we hope this class shows more.
New grade: C+
Miami Dolphins
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 8 QB Ryan Tannehill Texas A&M
(2) 42 T Jonathan Martin Stanford
(3) 72 DE Olivier Vernon Miami (FL)
(3) 78 TE Michael Egnew Missouri
(4) 97 RB Lamar Miller Miami (FL)
(5) 155 LB Josh Kaddu Oregon
(6) 183 WR B.J. Cunningham Michigan State
(7) 215 DT Kheeston Randall Texas
(7) 227 WR Rishard Matthews Nevada
Post-draft grade: C
Summary: The Dolphins' draft looks better today. Ryan Tannehill was a value question for me at the No. 8 spot, but Miami didn't want to mess around with trading down and hoping he was still there, so the Dolphins stuck with a plan and got the guy they wanted. They also created what should have been one of the smoother system transitions in recent memory by hiring Tannehill's college coach (Mike Sherman) to call plays. Tannehill had some highs, and he clearly showed why we consider him a high-ceiling talent, but on the aggregate he was a roller-coaster -- up one week, playing poorly the next. Maturity, experience and some weapons could mean a much better 2013. Jonathan Martin settled in on the right side and played pretty well, and Olivier Vernon might someday take over for the great Cameron Wake. Rishard Matthews might also be a late developmental value after seeing the field the last few games of the season. This could be a good draft, but it's all about whether Tannehill can take the next step. I think he can.
New grade: B-
New England Patriots
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 21 DE Chandler Jones Syracuse
(1) 25 LB Dont'a Hightower Alabama
(2) 48 S Tavon Wilson Illinois
(3) 90 DE Jake Bequette Arkansas
(6) 197 CB Nate Ebner Ohio State
(7) 224 CB Alfonzo Dennard Nebraska
(7) 235 WR Jeremy Ebert Northwestern
Post-draft grade: B-
Summary: There were a couple of players I had on my Big Board for most of 2011 who fell dramatically in the draft. Vontaze Burfict wasn't drafted at all after making a mess of the evaluation process, and Alfonzo Dennard fell to No. 225 overall based on some off-the-field issues. Burfict was Cincinnati's best LB, and Dennard played as well as any player in the New England secondary toward the end of the season. I loved the way the Patriots hit their needs in this draft, with both first-round picks Chandler Jones and Dont'a Hightower playing key roles all season. That's notable because the Patriots made significant strides on defense even as they failed to meet their lofty goals. Adding three starters to a Super Bowl contender via the draft pushes the grade up for me, even as the Tavon Wilson selection in Round 2 was maybe the biggest value question in the entire draft for me. A good draft overall.
New grade: B+
New York Jets
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 16 DE Quinton Coples North Carolina
(2) 43 WR Stephen Hill Georgia Tech
(3) 77 LB DeMario Davis Arkansas State
(6) 187 S Josh Bush Wake Forest
(6) 202 RB Terrance Ganaway Baylor
(6) 203 G Robert Griffin Baylor
(7) 242 S Antonio Allen South Carolina
(7) 244 WR Jordan White Western Michigan
Post-draft grade: C
Summary: Both of the first two picks for the Jets raised questions, not because they took players that didn't have value at the pick position, but because I wasn't sure if they added players who would help the team make strides in 2012. I had pegged Quinton Coples as a better fit as a 4-3 defensive end, and the Jets took him with the goal of moving him inside. Hill has big-time athletic skills, but he needed a lot of refinement as a route-runner and pass-catcher coming out of a running offense at Georgia Tech. Coples made the adjustment and played really well toward the end of the season, and he could be really good. Hill struggled and was particularly inconsistent in simply bringing the ball in. DeMario Davis and Josh Bush both saw the field, but the Jets failed to get much immediate return beyond the growth of Coples. Hopefully Hill develops into the playmaker the Jets envisioned. But the immediate return here was pretty underwhelming.
New grade: C
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 17 CB Dre Kirkpatrick Alabama
(1) 27 G Kevin Zeitler Wisconsin
(2) 53 DT Devon Still Penn State
(3) 83 WR Mohamed Sanu Rutgers
(3) 93 DT Brandon Thompson Clemson
(4) 116 TE Orson Charles Georgia
(5) 156 CB Shaun Prater Iowa
(5) 166 WR Marvin Jones California
(5) 167 S George Iloka Boise State
(6) 191 RB Dan Herron Ohio State
Post-draft grade: A-
Summary: Before you start slamming me in the comments for a slightly lowered grade, know that by official decree of the Grading Ground Rules Committee, I can't include the best single rookie acquisition the Bengals made: when they signed Burfict as an undrafted free agent. Burfict was a Big Board regular last season and piled up 127 tackles, the most on the Bengals and good for 15th in the NFL. As for the draft, in April I wrote, "The Bengals didn't hit any home runs in value, but as we sat on the set we'd nod to each other with every pick. ... They just crossed off needs, one pick after another." Dre Kirkpatrick was slowed by injuries and still has work to do to become a full-time starter, but he should get there. Kevin Zeitler turned out to be a great pick, playing guard at a Pro Bowl level. Orson Charles is a keeper as depth at tight end, while Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu combined for 34 catches, and one should be the Week 1 starter in 2013. Not a stellar draft in terms of immediate value, but with Zeitler, a pretty good one. And Burfict would still be considered a steal as a UFA if this is as good as he gets, but he has a chance to do much more given his talent and instincts for the position.
New grade: B
Cleveland Browns
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 3 RB Trent Richardson Alabama
(1) 22 QB Brandon Weeden Oklahoma State
(2) 37 T Mitchell Schwartz California
(3) 87 DT John Hughes Cincinnati
(4) 100 WR Travis Benjamin Miami (FL)
(4) 120 LB James-Michael Johnson Nevada
(5) 160 G Ryan Miller Colorado
(6) 204 LB Emmanuel Acho Texas
(6) 205 DT Billy Winn Boise State
(7) 245 CB Trevin Wade Arizona
(7) 247 TE Brad Smelley Alabama
Post-draft grade: B-
Summary: The Browns had question marks about value, but they did a really good job of hitting needs. They got the running back they really wanted, but when you take Trent Richardson at No. 3 overall, you're banking on stardom. At his best, Richardson has that upside, but he dealt with injuries all season and, in the short run, you could say others got more value at running back farther down the board. Brandon Weeden wasn't bad, but there are legitimate questions about whether the new administration wants him to be the 2013 starter. Mitchell Schwartz filled in well at right tackle, and you have to factor in that perhaps the best rookie for the Browns was Josh Gordon, whom they grabbed in the supplemental draft in Round 2. Where you saw really good value was with the additions of John Hughes and Billy Winn on the defensive line. The Cleveland defense regressed in 2012, but both look like keepers and good rotation players up front. I think when you factor in Gordon for the 2012 haul, this grade actually jumps a bit. But this draft will still be defined by whether Richardson can reach his full potential and if Weeden actually remains the starter and also makes major strides. Both of those are big questions.
New grade: B
Baltimore Ravens
Round Pick Position Player College
(2) 35 LB Courtney Upshaw Alabama
(2) 60 T Kelechi Osemele Iowa State
(3) 84 RB Bernard Pierce Temple
(4) 98 G Gino Gradkowski Delaware
(4) 130 S Christian Thompson South Carolina State
(5) 169 CB Asa Jackson Cal Poly
(6) 198 WR Tommy Streeter Miami (FL)
(7) 236 DE Deangelo Tyson Georgia
Post-draft grade: B
Summary: Few teams have extracted more value lower on the draft board in recent years than the Ravens. Once again, even without major holes to fill, they found immediate and future starters commensurate with a team that was drafting early in Round 1, and yet they didn't even have a pick until No. 35 overall. Courtney Upshaw was as advertised, a capable edge-setter in the 3-4 scheme, a guy who won't wow anybody as a pass-rusher, but that's not what he's asked to do. He'll be a longtime fixture in Baltimore. Kelechi Osemele moved inside to left guard and should remain there as the starter for years to come. Gino Gradkowski will ultimately be the starter at center, and Bernard Pierce did more than spell Ray Rice, he showed that he can pile up big numbers if Rice is out. When you get immediate starts and ultimately four certain starters out of a draft where you didn't pick early, you've done really well. And remember, these are guys contributing to a team playing in the final game of the season. Another value-filled draft for Ozzie Newsome and Eric DeCosta.
New grade: B+
Pittsburgh Steelers
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 24 G David DeCastro Stanford
(2) 56 T Mike Adams Ohio State
(3) 86 LB Sean Spence Miami (FL)
(4) 109 NT Alameda Ta'amu Washington
(5) 159 RB Chris Rainey Florida
(7) 231 WR Toney Clemons Colorado
(7) 240 TE David Paulson Oregon
(7) 246 CB Terrence Frederick Texas A&M
(7) 248 T Kelvin Beachum Southern Methodist
Post-draft grade: B
Summary: The Steelers ran into some bad luck when guard David DeCastro was lost for the bulk of the season with a knee injury he sustained in the preseason. After that, the results were mixed. Mike Adams was a decent value on my board as a Round 2 selection, and managed to make six starts, but he only had two really good games, and the jury is still out. Chris Rainey contributed to the offense in spots, but he was cut just after the season due to an off-the-field issue (something that was also a problem for him at Florida). Same story with Alameda Ta'amu, who was let go during the season. David Paulson can provide depth at tight end, but this draft will really come to whether DeCastro can fulfill his immense potential as the best available guard in the draft. If he does, the grade goes up, but in the short term (with bad luck noted), this draft hasn't provided much for the Steelers compared to other teams.
New grade: C
AFC South
Houston Texans
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 26 DE Whitney Mercilus Illinois
(3) 68 WR DeVier Posey Ohio State
(3) 76 G Brandon Brooks Miami (OH)
(4) 99 C Ben Jones Georgia
(4) 121 WR Keshawn Martin Michigan State
(4) 126 DT Jared Crick Nebraska
(5) 161 K Randy Bullock Texas A&M
(6) 195 T Nick Mondek Purdue
Post-draft grade: B
Summary: Each of the first six players drafted by the Texans managed to contribute in at least some form in 2012, something you can't overlook for a team that went 12-4 and didn't need major personnel additions to get there. Whitney Mercilus proved to be a pretty good value at No. 26 overall, picked up 6.0 sacks and has a chance to emerge as a starter in 2013. DeVier Posey had to shake off some rust, but could become a bigger part of the offense next year. Keshawn Martin provided immediate help in the return game, though how he develops as a wide receiver remains a question. Ben Jones is already starting, and Brandon Brooks figures to in the future, both on the interior of the offensive line. Even Jared Crick, once a big-time prospect who dropped due to injury concerns, found his way into the rotation along the defensive line. We can't say there's a certain star anywhere in this draft, but the Texans added some immediate help and depth to what was already a pretty solid roster. If one of the wide receivers becomes something more, the draft will look better in the years to come.
New grade: B
Indianapolis Colts
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 1 QB Andrew Luck Stanford
(2) 34 TE Coby Fleener Stanford
(3) 64 TE Dwayne Allen Clemson
(3) 92 WR T.Y. Hilton Florida International
(5) 136 DT Josh Chapman Alabama
(5) 170 RB Vick Ballard Mississippi State
(6) 206 WR LaVon Brazill Ohio
(7) 208 T Justin Anderson Georgia
(7) 214 LB Tim Fugger Vanderbilt
(7) 253 QB Chandler Harnish Northern Illinois
Post-draft grade: A-
Summary: At the time I noted all the offensive additions beyond the No. 1 pick and asked, "Think the Colts were concerned about building a supporting cast for Andrew Luck?" That was obvious, but this point (not mine) also proved smart: "Colleague Trent Dilfer noted that getting all these pass-catching pieces now is a good way to develop early chemistry and give Luck a chance to succeed earlier than we suspected given the state of the lineup going into the draft." I don't know if Luck proved very good earlier than we expected -- he had the second-highest grade I've ever given a quarterback in 34 years -- but it was certainly true that he found some chemistry with all the rookie offensive additions. T.Y. Hilton, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen and even LaVon Brazill played significant roles in the passing game, and Vick Ballard proved he's a capable starter at running back, as he eventually piled up 814 yards rushing on 211 carries despite a minimal role early in the season. The draft could be even better if Josh Chapman can contribute at defensive tackle, after he was taken coming off an injury and with the knowledge he wouldn't do much in 2012. Overall, even with just Luck as your reward, the draft looks great. But factor in all the rookie contributions and the historic leap in performance for a team that was 2-14 in 2011, and you have an incredibly successful weekend to look back on.
New grade: A
Jacksonville Jaguars
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 5 WR Justin Blackmon Oklahoma State
(2) 38 DE Andre Branch Clemson
(3) 70 P Bryan Anger California
(5) 142 LB Brandon Marshall Nevada
(6) 176 CB Mike Harris Florida State
(7) 228 DT Jeris Pendleton Ashland
Post-draft grade: C
Summary: Say this for the Jags: They deservedly took more heat for a single pick than any team in the draft when they took punter Bryan Anger out of Cal in the third round. But at least Anger punted well, averaging a very good 47.8 yards per punt. Regardless, until the QB situation becomes a positive in Jacksonville, the fact that Russell Wilson was taken by Seattle five picks later will be an ongoing punch line. That said, I can't revise history and say I was banging the desk calling for them to take Wilson. Jacksonville needed to upgrade its pass-catching situation first and then find some help in the pass rush. Justin Blackmon got off to a slow start, but the No. 5 overall pick finished the year leading all rookies in both catches (64) and receiving yards (865), and did that without any sparkling play at QB. Andre Branch was a player I thought could provide a little more impact than he did, but the jury is still out on what he'll become. Mike Harris saw some time at corner, but at this point the draft really is just about Blackmon. It's hard to give bonus points to a punter as a good pick when he was taken at a spot where there was plenty of value at key positions for a roster that was in need of help.
New grade: C+
Tennessee Titans
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 20 WR Kendall Wright Baylor
(2) 52 LB Zach Brown UNC
(3) 82 DT Mike Martin Michigan
(4) 115 CB Coty Sensabaugh Clemson
(5) 145 TE Taylor Thompson SMU
(6) 190 S Markelle Martin Oklahoma State
(7) 211 DE Scott Solomon Rice
Post-draft grade: C+
Summary: The Titans took care of what I considered their top need going into the draft when they took Kendall Wright out of Baylor at No. 20 overall. Wright didn't show off the upside of a star, but he did rack up 64 catches and contributed to a passing game that got extremely uneven quarterback play. I thought defensive end was a big need for the Titans, but the first defensive end they drafted was Taylor Thompson out of SMU, the caveat being that Thompson had converted to tight end. He did see some reps in that role, but there's plenty of development left. Zach Brown was a solid if unspectacular linebacker who ended up starting 12 games for the Titans. He figures to hold down the starting role heading into 2013. Mike Martin did a pretty good job as a rotational defensive tackle, and showed an ability to penetrate and aid the pass rush. This draft created some early roster help, but after a season looks light on upside. Better QB play might be the difference, as Wright still has a chance to be a major contributor at wide receiver as he develops.
New grade: C
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Round Pick Position Player College
(2) 36 DT Derek Wolfe Cincinnati
(2) 57 QB Brock Osweiler Arizona State
(3) 67 RB Ronnie Hillman San Diego State
(4) 101 CB Omar Bolden Arizona State
(4) 108 C Philip Blake Baylor
(5) 137 DE Malik Jackson Tennessee
(6) 188 LB Danny Trevathan Kentucky
Post-draft grade: C+
Summary: Fans of other teams might see the Broncos' grade go up and question it based on the total contribution, but you have to consider both what they added without an early pick and the fact that they made meaningful draft additions to a team that lacked significant holes. The Broncos landed one of my favorite players in the draft at No. 36 overall when they took Derek Wolfe. Their decision to move Wolfe from defensive tackle, where he was simply dominant at Cincinnati, to defensive end, where he's developed into a good pass-rusher (6.0 sacks) and a player who doesn't cheat and adds value as a run defender, looks brilliant now. They also drafted Ronnie Hillman in the third round, and he proved a helpful addition to their running back rotation. It's hard to knock the selection of Brock Osweiler as a high-ceiling QB prospect and an apprentice to Peyton Manning, and Danny Trevathan could turn into a steal as a linebacker they took at No. 188 overall. Pretty good strategy and value for a team that could have been in the Super Bowl if it hadn't had some major miscues late in its divisional round playoff game.
New grade: B
San Diego Chargers
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 18 LB Melvin Ingram South Carolina
(2) 49 DT Kendall Reyes Connecticut
(3) 73 S Brandon Taylor LSU
(4) 110 TE Ladarius Green Louisiana-Lafayette
(5) 149 G Johnnie Troutman Penn State
(7) 226 C David Molk Michigan
(7) 250 RB Edwin Baker Michigan State
Post-draft grade: B+
Summary: The season was a disappointment, but I think the top of the draft should turn out pretty well for the Chargers. Melvin Ingram was a guy I thought the Jets might take at No. 16 overall, but the Chargers got him at No. 18 with the goal of converting him from defensive end to outside linebacker. On many teams he would have paid earlier dividends, but the depth chart in San Diego is pretty decent at that position, and Ingram finished the season as an emerging depth addition. The big value in the draft may end up being Kendall Reyes, a guy I considered the most athletic defensive tackle on the board. Later in the season, he started to play a bigger role, and he started to show off his knack for creating havoc on the interior. In Week 16, he racked up 3.5 sacks against the Jets. He could play a much bigger role in 2013. After that, we have to see. Brandon Taylor could become a starter, but beyond Reyes, there are no guarantees.
New grade: C+
Oakland Raiders
Round Pick Position Player College
(3) 95 G Tony Bergstrom Utah
(4) 129 LB Miles Burris San Diego State
(5) 158 DE Jack Crawford Penn State
(5) 168 WR Juron Criner Arizona
(6) 189 DT Chris Bilukidi Georgia State
(7) 230 LB Nathan Stupar Penn State
Post-draft grade: C-
Summary: The Raiders didn't go into the draft with high expectations, so it's not like they needed to be granted a mulligan if they couldn't find much impact. But even then, I'm not sure they managed to find an above-average regular. Oakland's first pick wasn't until No. 95 overall, and in Tony Bergstrom the Raiders got a player who can back up at either tackle or guard. The best value they found was in linebacker Miles Burris, their fourth-round pick out of San Diego State. Burris can play, and was thrust into a significant role early, finishing the season with 14 starts. He made some plays, but Burris isn't a guy who would start for almost any other team right now. The Raiders were just that thin at the position. Juron Criner has some potential, but questions remain. The Raiders' best rookie was Rod Streater, an undrafted free agent who provided some significant help at wide receiver, but he doesn't factor in here because he wasn't drafted (see: Burfict, Vontaze).
New grade: D+
Kansas City Chiefs
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 11 NT Dontari Poe Memphis
(2) 44 T Jeff Allen Illinois
(3) 74 T Donald Stephenson Oklahoma
(4) 107 WR Devon Wylie Fresno State
(5) 146 CB De'Quan Menzie Alabama
(6) 182 RB Cyrus Gray Texas A&M
(7) 218 DT Jerome Long San Diego State
(7) 238 WR Junior Hemingway Michigan
Post-draft grade: C+
Summary: The Chiefs took one of the more significant calculated risks in the draft. At No. 11, they took defensive tackle Dontari Poe, a player out of Memphis who was the darling of the draft evaluation process due to his remarkable combination of size and athleticism. The problem with Poe was that when you rolled the tape, you simply didn't see a dominant player; that's a worry when the guy is playing for Memphis and not facing great competition week to week. Poe is now the starter, graded out so-so as a rookie and still has plenty of upside. But time will tell. Where the Chiefs probably got the most value was with the selection of Jeff Allen in Round 2. A tackle at Illinois, Allen was up and down as he converted to guard, but he should develop into a pretty good one. Beyond that, there's very little in terms of early impact. Donald Stephenson could develop at tackle, and Devon Wylie might be a good one in the return game. But for a team that struggled this much, you hoped to see more from the rookie class.
New grade: C
NFC East
New York Giants
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 32 RB David Wilson Virginia Tech
(2) 63 WR Rueben Randle LSU
(3) 94 CB Jayron Hosley Virginia Tech
(4) 127 TE Adrien Robinson Cincinnati
(4) 131 T Brandon Mosley Auburn
(6) 201 T Matt McCants UAB
(7) 239 DT Markus Kuhn North Carolina State
Post-draft grade: C+
Summary: In my grades after the draft I wrote, "I had running back as the top need for the Giants, and they got one with their first pick. David Wilson should be productive, but I think they really would have preferred Doug Martin. I might have gone with an O-lineman there, but the Giants have capably kept things patched up for a couple years, and will have to continue to do so, because they didn't get a tackle until the fourth round." Well, I think it's still fair to say they might have preferred Martin, who had a huge season for the Bucs. And while the O-line was a question, in typical fashion, the coaching staff kept it patched together. So, was Wilson the best pick? Despite too much time spent in the Tom Coughlin doghouse, I think he'll prove to be a good one if healthy. He's electrifying in the return game, and given the reps in the run game, I think he'll make his mark. Rueben Randle we knew was a high-upside project in Round 2, and that's what he looked like as a rookie. The real find could be third-rounder Jayron Hosley, who led college football in INTs as a sophomore, struggled as a junior and saw his stock fall. Well, he came on down the stretch and could be a starter in 2013. There's a ton of projection left in this draft, but we may look back in a couple years and say it looks a lot better than it does today.
New grade: C+
Philadelphia Eagles
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 12 DT Fletcher Cox Mississippi State
(2) 46 LB Mychal Kendricks California
(2) 59 DE Vinny Curry Marshall
(3) 88 QB Nick Foles Arizona
(4) 123 CB Brandon Boykin Georgia
(5) 153 T Dennis Kelly Purdue
(6) 194 WR Marvin McNutt Iowa
(6) 200 G Brandon Washington Miami (FL)
(7) 229 RB Bryce Brown Kansas State
Post-draft grade: A
Summary: The season went off the rails, but the Eagles got a lot of value out of the rookie class and should have high hopes for a number of players heading into the future. Fletcher Cox finished the season as a terror on the defensive line and is a lock to start at defensive tackle in 2013. But he needs to show more consistency. Mychal Kendricks was an immediate starter at linebacker and a good get at No. 46. If the Eagles didn't trade for DeMeco Ryans, it would have been Kendricks as the head-and-shoulders best linebacker on the roster. This season was essentially a redshirt year for Vinny Curry, who was inactive for most of the year. I noted during the draft that I thought that Brandon Boykin was a steal at No. 123 overall because he could be an early starter, and Boykin was giving Philly the best play among any of its corners by the end of the season. Bryce Brown we know is a steal, a low-mileage pickup in Round 7 who proved he can start in this league if needed. And I haven't even mentioned Nick Foles. Hey, we don't know if Foles will be the starter under Chip Kelly, but would you rather have, say, Brandon Weeden or Brock Osweiler based on what you've seen from Foles? Even as a good backup, he proved to have decent value. The big knock on this draft is the question of whether all these rookies see this much time for a better team. That's the main reason the grade dips.
New grade: B+
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 1 QB Andrew Luck Stanford
(2) 34 TE Coby Fleener Stanford
(3) 64 TE Dwayne Allen Clemson
(3) 92 WR T.Y. Hilton Florida International
(5) 136 DT Josh Chapman Alabama
(5) 170 RB Vick Ballard Mississippi State
(6) 206 WR LaVon Brazill Ohio
(7) 208 T Justin Anderson Georgia
(7) 214 LB Tim Fugger Vanderbilt
(7) 253 QB Chandler Harnish Northern Illinois
Post-draft grade: A-
Summary: At the time I noted all the offensive additions beyond the No. 1 pick and asked, "Think the Colts were concerned about building a supporting cast for Andrew Luck?" That was obvious, but this point (not mine) also proved smart: "Colleague Trent Dilfer noted that getting all these pass-catching pieces now is a good way to develop early chemistry and give Luck a chance to succeed earlier than we suspected given the state of the lineup going into the draft." I don't know if Luck proved very good earlier than we expected -- he had the second-highest grade I've ever given a quarterback in 34 years -- but it was certainly true that he found some chemistry with all the rookie offensive additions. T.Y. Hilton, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen and even LaVon Brazill played significant roles in the passing game, and Vick Ballard proved he's a capable starter at running back, as he eventually piled up 814 yards rushing on 211 carries despite a minimal role early in the season. The draft could be even better if Josh Chapman can contribute at defensive tackle, after he was taken coming off an injury and with the knowledge he wouldn't do much in 2012. Overall, even with just Luck as your reward, the draft looks great. But factor in all the rookie contributions and the historic leap in performance for a team that was 2-14 in 2011, and you have an incredibly successful weekend to look back on.
New grade: A
Jacksonville Jaguars
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 5 WR Justin Blackmon Oklahoma State
(2) 38 DE Andre Branch Clemson
(3) 70 P Bryan Anger California
(5) 142 LB Brandon Marshall Nevada
(6) 176 CB Mike Harris Florida State
(7) 228 DT Jeris Pendleton Ashland
Post-draft grade: C
Summary: Say this for the Jags: They deservedly took more heat for a single pick than any team in the draft when they took punter Bryan Anger out of Cal in the third round. But at least Anger punted well, averaging a very good 47.8 yards per punt. Regardless, until the QB situation becomes a positive in Jacksonville, the fact that Russell Wilson was taken by Seattle five picks later will be an ongoing punch line. That said, I can't revise history and say I was banging the desk calling for them to take Wilson. Jacksonville needed to upgrade its pass-catching situation first and then find some help in the pass rush. Justin Blackmon got off to a slow start, but the No. 5 overall pick finished the year leading all rookies in both catches (64) and receiving yards (865), and did that without any sparkling play at QB. Andre Branch was a player I thought could provide a little more impact than he did, but the jury is still out on what he'll become. Mike Harris saw some time at corner, but at this point the draft really is just about Blackmon. It's hard to give bonus points to a punter as a good pick when he was taken at a spot where there was plenty of value at key positions for a roster that was in need of help.
New grade: C+
Tennessee Titans
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 20 WR Kendall Wright Baylor
(2) 52 LB Zach Brown UNC
(3) 82 DT Mike Martin Michigan
(4) 115 CB Coty Sensabaugh Clemson
(5) 145 TE Taylor Thompson SMU
(6) 190 S Markelle Martin Oklahoma State
(7) 211 DE Scott Solomon Rice
Post-draft grade: C+
Summary: The Titans took care of what I considered their top need going into the draft when they took Kendall Wright out of Baylor at No. 20 overall. Wright didn't show off the upside of a star, but he did rack up 64 catches and contributed to a passing game that got extremely uneven quarterback play. I thought defensive end was a big need for the Titans, but the first defensive end they drafted was Taylor Thompson out of SMU, the caveat being that Thompson had converted to tight end. He did see some reps in that role, but there's plenty of development left. Zach Brown was a solid if unspectacular linebacker who ended up starting 12 games for the Titans. He figures to hold down the starting role heading into 2013. Mike Martin did a pretty good job as a rotational defensive tackle, and showed an ability to penetrate and aid the pass rush. This draft created some early roster help, but after a season looks light on upside. Better QB play might be the difference, as Wright still has a chance to be a major contributor at wide receiver as he develops.
New grade: C
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Round Pick Position Player College
(2) 36 DT Derek Wolfe Cincinnati
(2) 57 QB Brock Osweiler Arizona State
(3) 67 RB Ronnie Hillman San Diego State
(4) 101 CB Omar Bolden Arizona State
(4) 108 C Philip Blake Baylor
(5) 137 DE Malik Jackson Tennessee
(6) 188 LB Danny Trevathan Kentucky
Post-draft grade: C+
Summary: Fans of other teams might see the Broncos' grade go up and question it based on the total contribution, but you have to consider both what they added without an early pick and the fact that they made meaningful draft additions to a team that lacked significant holes. The Broncos landed one of my favorite players in the draft at No. 36 overall when they took Derek Wolfe. Their decision to move Wolfe from defensive tackle, where he was simply dominant at Cincinnati, to defensive end, where he's developed into a good pass-rusher (6.0 sacks) and a player who doesn't cheat and adds value as a run defender, looks brilliant now. They also drafted Ronnie Hillman in the third round, and he proved a helpful addition to their running back rotation. It's hard to knock the selection of Brock Osweiler as a high-ceiling QB prospect and an apprentice to Peyton Manning, and Danny Trevathan could turn into a steal as a linebacker they took at No. 188 overall. Pretty good strategy and value for a team that could have been in the Super Bowl if it hadn't had some major miscues late in its divisional round playoff game.
New grade: B
San Diego Chargers
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 18 LB Melvin Ingram South Carolina
(2) 49 DT Kendall Reyes Connecticut
(3) 73 S Brandon Taylor LSU
(4) 110 TE Ladarius Green Louisiana-Lafayette
(5) 149 G Johnnie Troutman Penn State
(7) 226 C David Molk Michigan
(7) 250 RB Edwin Baker Michigan State
Post-draft grade: B+
Summary: The season was a disappointment, but I think the top of the draft should turn out pretty well for the Chargers. Melvin Ingram was a guy I thought the Jets might take at No. 16 overall, but the Chargers got him at No. 18 with the goal of converting him from defensive end to outside linebacker. On many teams he would have paid earlier dividends, but the depth chart in San Diego is pretty decent at that position, and Ingram finished the season as an emerging depth addition. The big value in the draft may end up being Kendall Reyes, a guy I considered the most athletic defensive tackle on the board. Later in the season, he started to play a bigger role, and he started to show off his knack for creating havoc on the interior. In Week 16, he racked up 3.5 sacks against the Jets. He could play a much bigger role in 2013. After that, we have to see. Brandon Taylor could become a starter, but beyond Reyes, there are no guarantees.
New grade: C+
Oakland Raiders
Round Pick Position Player College
(3) 95 G Tony Bergstrom Utah
(4) 129 LB Miles Burris San Diego State
(5) 158 DE Jack Crawford Penn State
(5) 168 WR Juron Criner Arizona
(6) 189 DT Chris Bilukidi Georgia State
(7) 230 LB Nathan Stupar Penn State
Post-draft grade: C-
Summary: The Raiders didn't go into the draft with high expectations, so it's not like they needed to be granted a mulligan if they couldn't find much impact. But even then, I'm not sure they managed to find an above-average regular. Oakland's first pick wasn't until No. 95 overall, and in Tony Bergstrom the Raiders got a player who can back up at either tackle or guard. The best value they found was in linebacker Miles Burris, their fourth-round pick out of San Diego State. Burris can play, and was thrust into a significant role early, finishing the season with 14 starts. He made some plays, but Burris isn't a guy who would start for almost any other team right now. The Raiders were just that thin at the position. Juron Criner has some potential, but questions remain. The Raiders' best rookie was Rod Streater, an undrafted free agent who provided some significant help at wide receiver, but he doesn't factor in here because he wasn't drafted (see: Burfict, Vontaze).
New grade: D+
Kansas City Chiefs
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 11 NT Dontari Poe Memphis
(2) 44 T Jeff Allen Illinois
(3) 74 T Donald Stephenson Oklahoma
(4) 107 WR Devon Wylie Fresno State
(5) 146 CB De'Quan Menzie Alabama
(6) 182 RB Cyrus Gray Texas A&M
(7) 218 DT Jerome Long San Diego State
(7) 238 WR Junior Hemingway Michigan
Post-draft grade: C+
Summary: The Chiefs took one of the more significant calculated risks in the draft. At No. 11, they took defensive tackle Dontari Poe, a player out of Memphis who was the darling of the draft evaluation process due to his remarkable combination of size and athleticism. The problem with Poe was that when you rolled the tape, you simply didn't see a dominant player; that's a worry when the guy is playing for Memphis and not facing great competition week to week. Poe is now the starter, graded out so-so as a rookie and still has plenty of upside. But time will tell. Where the Chiefs probably got the most value was with the selection of Jeff Allen in Round 2. A tackle at Illinois, Allen was up and down as he converted to guard, but he should develop into a pretty good one. Beyond that, there's very little in terms of early impact. Donald Stephenson could develop at tackle, and Devon Wylie might be a good one in the return game. But for a team that struggled this much, you hoped to see more from the rookie class.
New grade: C
NFC East
New York Giants
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 32 RB David Wilson Virginia Tech
(2) 63 WR Rueben Randle LSU
(3) 94 CB Jayron Hosley Virginia Tech
(4) 127 TE Adrien Robinson Cincinnati
(4) 131 T Brandon Mosley Auburn
(6) 201 T Matt McCants UAB
(7) 239 DT Markus Kuhn North Carolina State
Post-draft grade: C+
Summary: In my grades after the draft I wrote, "I had running back as the top need for the Giants, and they got one with their first pick. David Wilson should be productive, but I think they really would have preferred Doug Martin. I might have gone with an O-lineman there, but the Giants have capably kept things patched up for a couple years, and will have to continue to do so, because they didn't get a tackle until the fourth round." Well, I think it's still fair to say they might have preferred Martin, who had a huge season for the Bucs. And while the O-line was a question, in typical fashion, the coaching staff kept it patched together. So, was Wilson the best pick? Despite too much time spent in the Tom Coughlin doghouse, I think he'll prove to be a good one if healthy. He's electrifying in the return game, and given the reps in the run game, I think he'll make his mark. Rueben Randle we knew was a high-upside project in Round 2, and that's what he looked like as a rookie. The real find could be third-rounder Jayron Hosley, who led college football in INTs as a sophomore, struggled as a junior and saw his stock fall. Well, he came on down the stretch and could be a starter in 2013. There's a ton of projection left in this draft, but we may look back in a couple years and say it looks a lot better than it does today.
New grade: C+
Philadelphia Eagles
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 12 DT Fletcher Cox Mississippi State
(2) 46 LB Mychal Kendricks California
(2) 59 DE Vinny Curry Marshall
(3) 88 QB Nick Foles Arizona
(4) 123 CB Brandon Boykin Georgia
(5) 153 T Dennis Kelly Purdue
(6) 194 WR Marvin McNutt Iowa
(6) 200 G Brandon Washington Miami (FL)
(7) 229 RB Bryce Brown Kansas State
Post-draft grade: A
Summary: The season went off the rails, but the Eagles got a lot of value out of the rookie class and should have high hopes for a number of players heading into the future. Fletcher Cox finished the season as a terror on the defensive line and is a lock to start at defensive tackle in 2013. But he needs to show more consistency. Mychal Kendricks was an immediate starter at linebacker and a good get at No. 46. If the Eagles didn't trade for DeMeco Ryans, it would have been Kendricks as the head-and-shoulders best linebacker on the roster. This season was essentially a redshirt year for Vinny Curry, who was inactive for most of the year. I noted during the draft that I thought that Brandon Boykin was a steal at No. 123 overall because he could be an early starter, and Boykin was giving Philly the best play among any of its corners by the end of the season. Bryce Brown we know is a steal, a low-mileage pickup in Round 7 who proved he can start in this league if needed. And I haven't even mentioned Nick Foles. Hey, we don't know if Foles will be the starter under Chip Kelly, but would you rather have, say, Brandon Weeden or Brock Osweiler based on what you've seen from Foles? Even as a good backup, he proved to have decent value. The big knock on this draft is the question of whether all these rookies see this much time for a better team. That's the main reason the grade dips.
New grade: B+
Dallas Cowboys
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 6 CB Morris Claiborne LSU
(3) 81 DE Tyrone Crawford Boise State
(4) 113 LB Kyle Wilber Wake Forest
(4) 135 S Matt Johnson Eastern Washington
(5) 152 WR Danny Coale Virginia Tech
(6) 186 TE James Hanna Oklahoma
(7) 222 LB Caleb McSurdy Montana
Post-draft grade: C+
Summary: Despite getting a very good player in Morris Claiborne, this draft looks worse after a full season. You can't just say the trade up to get Claiborne at No. 6 was a brilliant move, because that's analyzing the pick in a vacuum. In terms of overall value, the Cowboys got Claiborne at the cost of a valuable second-round pick. So while the fact that Claiborne is a good one is a credit to Dallas, he also came at the cost of a pick that would likely turn into a starter. (Dallas has landed Bruce Carter, Sean Lee and Anthony Fasano in Round 2 in recent years.) And beyond Claiborne, there isn't much here. Tyrone Crawford looks like a depth addition, and Kyle Wilber isn't a future starter. The one guy you might point to is James Hannah, who caught 8 passes and showed some upside down the stretch. But overall, the draft is about Claiborne, a very good player, but one who came at a cost. I just can't say there's anything here of significance beyond that selection.
New grade: C
Washington Redskins
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 2 QB Robert Griffin III Baylor
(3) 71 G Josh LeRibeus SMU
(4) 102 QB Kirk Cousins Michigan State
(4) 119 LB Keenan Robinson Texas
(5) 141 G Adam Gettis Iowa
(6) 173 RB Alfred Morris Florida Atlantic
(6) 193 T Tom Compton South Dakota
(7) 213 CB Richard Crawford SMU
(7) 217 CB Jordan Bernstine Iowa
Post-draft grade: C+
Summary: The season Robert Griffin III put together might be seem like reason enough to push that C+ to an A. But I think Redskins fans who really understand the draft will have a more realistic view of this. In fact, I feel just as I did when the draft concluded. At that time I wrote, "If you feel like the grade is a tough one, remember I have to factor in the extraordinary value given up to acquire Robert Griffin III. I've looked, and it's as much as we've ever seen dealt for a top-5 pick. I think RG III will be a very good player, and I think he can be pretty good right out of the gate, but he's this draft for Washington, and he came at the cost of [likely] three future starters." RG III was better than very good -- he was exceptional. But Washington gave up an extraordinary amount of draft value to land him. When you factor in his injury to finish the season, and the fact that Mike Shanahan will need to take a hard look at how his young star is used as a runner, it puts a damper on the overall evaluation. Even with the value given up for RG III, the draft should still get high marks for the pick of Kirk Cousins, a player who proved his value with a big regular-season win. And Alfred Morris turned into maybe the steal of the draft, rushing for 1,613 yards and 11 TDs. There isn't much beyond that, though Keenan Robinson could develop into a starter. Overall, a very good draft, but one that will be defined by how good RG III will be when he comes back from this setback, because he came at a price that will be evident in April both this year and next.
New grade: B+
NFC North
Green Bay Packers
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 28 DE Nick Perry USC
(2) 51 DT Jerel Worthy Michigan State
(2) 62 CB Casey Hayward Vanderbilt
(4) 132 DT Mike Daniels Iowa
(4) 133 S Jeron McMillian Maine
(5) 163 LB Terrell Manning North Carolina State
(7) 241 T Andrew Datko Florida State
(7) 243 QB B.J. Coleman Chattanooga
Post-draft grade: B
Summary: Defense was the big push for the Packers after a season when the lack of a pass rush left them far too vulnerable and was ultimately their undoing. Nick Perry had flashes and saw a few starts, but still needs a lot of development. Same for Jerel Worthy, who was a really hot-and-cold player at Michigan State and didn't always play up to his talent level. If he comes back healthy, he projects as a capable starter and a guy who can be disruptive on the interior. Where the Packers really hit a home run was at the end of Round 2 when they landed Casey Hayward, who wasn't just a great rookie corner, but one of the best corners in the NFL in 2012, period. I saw Hayward as a guy who would really show his value as a slot corner, but he can be more than that and is already a player opposing QBs need to avoid. Mike Daniels is a good rotation player along the defensive line, and Jerron McMillian proved that he can become a starter at free safety. Where the Packers won't get credit here is for the addition of Dezman Moses as an undrafted free agent. He might be the best pass-rusher they added in 2012. A good draft overall, highlighted by Hayward, but also one dependent on plenty of development for the first two picks.
New grade: B+
Minnesota Vikings
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 4 T Matt Kalil USC
(1) 29 S Harrison Smith Notre Dame
(3) 66 CB Josh Robinson Central Florida
(4) 118 WR Jarius Wright Arkansas
(4) 128 FB Rhett Ellison USC
(4) 134 WR Greg Childs Arkansas
(5) 139 CB Robert Blanton Notre Dame
(6) 175 K Blair Walsh Georgia
(7) 210 LB Audie Cole North Carolina State
(7) 219 DT Trevor Guyton California
Post-draft grade: B
Summary: After the draft I wrote, "The Vikings did pretty well. They got the left tackle they coveted in Matt Kalil, and they moved up to get a safety. Both Kalil and Harrison Smith, their two first-round picks, should be starting in Week 1. Josh Robinson adds speed, if not a lot of polish, at corner, and has the chance to develop into a good player." I'd say that sums up how I feel today, but the grade has to go up based on performance. Kalil not only started 16 games at left tackle, played well at a significant position and if his run-blocking catches up with his pass-blocking, he'll become among the league's best. Smith became exactly what the Vikings had hoped, started all 16 games at free safety and should be there for years to come. The instincts he showed at Notre Dame were on display, and he'll continue to get better. Robinson is raw, but could ultimately take over for Antoine Winfield. And don't overlook one of the steals of the draft. Blair Walsh was taken at No. 175 overall, and was the best kicker in the league in 2012. A year later, a pretty good draft looks even better.
New grade: A-
Chicago Bears
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 19 DE Shea McClellin Boise State
(2) 45 WR Alshon Jeffery South Carolina
(3) 79 S Brandon Hardin Oregon State
(4) 111 FB Evan Rodriguez Temple
(6) 184 CB Isaiah Frey Nevada
(7) 220 CB Greg McCoy TCU
Post-draft grade: C+
Summary: The Bears targeted needs at defensive end and wide receiver, and Shea McClellin had his moments, as did Alshon Jeffery when healthy. But questions I had about them exist today. I don't know if McClellin has the explosiveness to be an upper-crust pass-rusher at the NFL level, and while Jeffery can be a physical matchup problem, questions about his speed, ability to separate and take the top off the defense as a deep threat remain. Evan Rodriguez was a nice conversion -- he was a tight end at Temple, but the Bears used him as a fullback, and I can see his role expanding. But that's really it for the draft. Rodriguez is the only player taken you can feel confident will be listed as a starter on the Week 1 depth chart for 2013, so hopefully McClellin and Jeffery can continue to grow into bigger roles. The biggest question I had then was the fact that Chicago didn't take a single offensive lineman -- it was the top need I had listed -- and that's still a big question mark as the Bears head into another offseason.
New grade: C-
Detroit Lions
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 23 T Riley Reiff Iowa
(2) 54 WR Ryan Broyles Oklahoma
(3) 85 CB Dwight Bentley Louisiana-Lafayette
(4) 125 LB Ronnell Lewis Oklahoma
(5) 138 LB Tahir Whitehead Temple
(5) 148 CB Chris Greenwood Albion
(6) 196 CB Jonte Green New Mexico State
(7) 223 LB Travis Lewis Oklahoma
Post-draft grade: B
Summary: At the time, I thought Detroit did pretty well, and it still may end up that way. But the return thus far has been minimal, with a key injury part of the problem. Riley Reiff was a pretty good value at No. 23 overall, a player that could come in and provide starts at right tackle with the goal of ultimately taking over for Jeff Backus at left tackle. That may be his role in 2013. The big disappointment in this class is Ryan Broyles, who was starting to flash some of the ability that had him on my Big Board before an ACL tear at Oklahoma. Well, he tore an ACL again after catching 22 passes. Hopefully he comes back once again, because he has a ton of ability. We didn't see much of third-rounder Bill Bentley, and Jonte Green (No. 196 overall) turned into the biggest contributor the Lions got out of the rookie class at cornerback, a major need position for them going into the draft. Tahir Whitehead and Travis Lewis both saw the field, but the draft thus far has been merely average. If Reiff becomes the answer at left tackle and Broyles can get healthy once again, this grade could improve.
New grade: C
NFC South
New Orleans Saints
Round Pick Position Player College
(3) 90 DT Akiem Hicks Regina, Can.
(4) 122 WR Nick Toon Wisconsin
(5) 162 S Corey White Samford
(6) 179 G Andrew Tiller Syracuse
(7) 234 T Marcel Jones Nebraska
Post-draft grade: C-
Summary: There really weren't any expectations for this draft. The Saints didn't have a first-round pick because of a trade, and the NFL stripped them of a pick in Round 2. By the time they picked at No. 90 overall, it was at the point where fans start to become impressed we have good footage on some of the players taken. That certainly qualified when they took defensive tackle Akiem Hicks, who had been playing his college ball in Canada. Hicks isn't a classic sleeper, given he could have been playing at LSU if things had worked out, and towards the end of the season we saw flashes of that talent. But he's no lock to become a starter. Corey White saw some time in the secondary, but that's really the entirety of the first-year contributions out of this draft.
New grade: D
Atlanta Falcons
Round Pick Position Player College
(2) 55 C Peter Konz Wisconsin
(3) 91 T Lamar Holmes Southern Mississippi
(5) 157 FB Bradie Ewing Wisconsin
(5) 164 DE Jonathan Massaquoi Troy
(6) 192 S Charles Mitchell Mississippi State
(7) 249 NT Travian Robertson South Carolina
Post-draft grade: C
Summary: The Falcons didn't draft until No. 55 overall, but they got a player I considered the best at his position. Peter Konz was my top-rated center on draft day, and he finished the season as a starter at guard. He should remain as a starter on the interior of Atlanta's offensive line. There isn't much to point to after that, but again, this for a team that didn't have significant holes. The pass rush was an area of concern, and Jonathan Massaquoi still has a chance to develop after being taken at No. 164 overall out of Troy. Late picks Charles Mitchell and Travian Robertson both managed to stick, but so far the draft is basically Konz and some hope for Massaquoi.
New grade: C
Carolina Panthers
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 9 LB Luke Kuechly Boston College
(2) 40 G Amini Silatolu Midwestern State
(4) 103 DE Frank Alexander Oklahoma
(4) 104 WR Joe Adams Arkansas
(5) 143 CB Josh Norman Coastal Carolina
(6) 207 P Brad Nortman Wisconsin
(7) 216 S D.J. Campbell California
Post-draft grade: B-
Summary: No team that didn't reach the playoffs finished as well as the Panthers, who won their last four games (five of their last six) -- and the 2012 draft played a big role. Luke Kuechly seems destined to be one of the top players from this draft. Taking an inside linebacker inside the top 10 raises value questions, but not when you hit a home run. Kuechly wasn't just good, he led the NFL in tackles and he should only continue to get better. (Kuechly doesn't turn 22 until a week before the 2013 draft.) You could see his exceptional instincts on display early. Amini Silatolu moved inside and started 15 games at guard. He struggled, but also started to play his best football towards the end of the season. Frank Alexander played in every game, and could develop into a pretty good pass-rusher. Josh Norman was raw coming out of Coastal Carolina, but should be a starter at corner in Week 1 next season, and has the chance to get a lot better as his technical skills catch up with his athleticism. And hey, the Panthers even got a pretty good punter in a reasonable value range, drafting Brad Nortman at No. 207 overall. Kuechly is the gem, and the grade reflects that not all of these guys see as much time on a contender, but this is not a bad draft at all for the Panthers. We'll see if the good play from the end of the season can carry over.
New grade: B
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 7 S Mark Barron Alabama
(1) 31 RB Doug Martin Boise State
(2) 58 LB Lavonte David Nebraska
(5) 140 LB Najee Goode West Virginia
(6) 174 CB Keith Tandy West Virginia
(7) 212 RB Michael Smith Utah State
(7) 233 TE Drake Dunsmore Northwestern
Post-draft grade: A
Summary: After a season in the books, I still really like this draft. At the time I wrote, "In terms of adding impactful talent, and working the board, it's hard to do any better than Tampa Bay did in the first two rounds." You can question positional value drafting a safety in the top 10, but it was a big need, and Mark Barron was the best safety available in the draft. He has work to do in his ability to cover, but he started all 16 games and should only get better. Doug Martin is already one of the top running backs in the NFL, and does everything well -- running, catching, blocking and even holding onto the ball. He fell just short of 2,000 total yards. Lavonte David was one of my favorite picks in the draft, a steal at No. 58 overall, and 16 starts and 139 tackles later can't be considered anything less than a great value for the Bucs. There isn't much to show for the later rounds, but the Bucs got three impact starters with their first three picks, and worked the board well to land Martin. Can't ask for much more in terms of immediate impact.
New grade: A
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 6 CB Morris Claiborne LSU
(3) 81 DE Tyrone Crawford Boise State
(4) 113 LB Kyle Wilber Wake Forest
(4) 135 S Matt Johnson Eastern Washington
(5) 152 WR Danny Coale Virginia Tech
(6) 186 TE James Hanna Oklahoma
(7) 222 LB Caleb McSurdy Montana
Post-draft grade: C+
Summary: Despite getting a very good player in Morris Claiborne, this draft looks worse after a full season. You can't just say the trade up to get Claiborne at No. 6 was a brilliant move, because that's analyzing the pick in a vacuum. In terms of overall value, the Cowboys got Claiborne at the cost of a valuable second-round pick. So while the fact that Claiborne is a good one is a credit to Dallas, he also came at the cost of a pick that would likely turn into a starter. (Dallas has landed Bruce Carter, Sean Lee and Anthony Fasano in Round 2 in recent years.) And beyond Claiborne, there isn't much here. Tyrone Crawford looks like a depth addition, and Kyle Wilber isn't a future starter. The one guy you might point to is James Hannah, who caught 8 passes and showed some upside down the stretch. But overall, the draft is about Claiborne, a very good player, but one who came at a cost. I just can't say there's anything here of significance beyond that selection.
New grade: C
Washington Redskins
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 2 QB Robert Griffin III Baylor
(3) 71 G Josh LeRibeus SMU
(4) 102 QB Kirk Cousins Michigan State
(4) 119 LB Keenan Robinson Texas
(5) 141 G Adam Gettis Iowa
(6) 173 RB Alfred Morris Florida Atlantic
(6) 193 T Tom Compton South Dakota
(7) 213 CB Richard Crawford SMU
(7) 217 CB Jordan Bernstine Iowa
Post-draft grade: C+
Summary: The season Robert Griffin III put together might be seem like reason enough to push that C+ to an A. But I think Redskins fans who really understand the draft will have a more realistic view of this. In fact, I feel just as I did when the draft concluded. At that time I wrote, "If you feel like the grade is a tough one, remember I have to factor in the extraordinary value given up to acquire Robert Griffin III. I've looked, and it's as much as we've ever seen dealt for a top-5 pick. I think RG III will be a very good player, and I think he can be pretty good right out of the gate, but he's this draft for Washington, and he came at the cost of [likely] three future starters." RG III was better than very good -- he was exceptional. But Washington gave up an extraordinary amount of draft value to land him. When you factor in his injury to finish the season, and the fact that Mike Shanahan will need to take a hard look at how his young star is used as a runner, it puts a damper on the overall evaluation. Even with the value given up for RG III, the draft should still get high marks for the pick of Kirk Cousins, a player who proved his value with a big regular-season win. And Alfred Morris turned into maybe the steal of the draft, rushing for 1,613 yards and 11 TDs. There isn't much beyond that, though Keenan Robinson could develop into a starter. Overall, a very good draft, but one that will be defined by how good RG III will be when he comes back from this setback, because he came at a price that will be evident in April both this year and next.
New grade: B+
NFC North
Green Bay Packers
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 28 DE Nick Perry USC
(2) 51 DT Jerel Worthy Michigan State
(2) 62 CB Casey Hayward Vanderbilt
(4) 132 DT Mike Daniels Iowa
(4) 133 S Jeron McMillian Maine
(5) 163 LB Terrell Manning North Carolina State
(7) 241 T Andrew Datko Florida State
(7) 243 QB B.J. Coleman Chattanooga
Post-draft grade: B
Summary: Defense was the big push for the Packers after a season when the lack of a pass rush left them far too vulnerable and was ultimately their undoing. Nick Perry had flashes and saw a few starts, but still needs a lot of development. Same for Jerel Worthy, who was a really hot-and-cold player at Michigan State and didn't always play up to his talent level. If he comes back healthy, he projects as a capable starter and a guy who can be disruptive on the interior. Where the Packers really hit a home run was at the end of Round 2 when they landed Casey Hayward, who wasn't just a great rookie corner, but one of the best corners in the NFL in 2012, period. I saw Hayward as a guy who would really show his value as a slot corner, but he can be more than that and is already a player opposing QBs need to avoid. Mike Daniels is a good rotation player along the defensive line, and Jerron McMillian proved that he can become a starter at free safety. Where the Packers won't get credit here is for the addition of Dezman Moses as an undrafted free agent. He might be the best pass-rusher they added in 2012. A good draft overall, highlighted by Hayward, but also one dependent on plenty of development for the first two picks.
New grade: B+
Minnesota Vikings
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 4 T Matt Kalil USC
(1) 29 S Harrison Smith Notre Dame
(3) 66 CB Josh Robinson Central Florida
(4) 118 WR Jarius Wright Arkansas
(4) 128 FB Rhett Ellison USC
(4) 134 WR Greg Childs Arkansas
(5) 139 CB Robert Blanton Notre Dame
(6) 175 K Blair Walsh Georgia
(7) 210 LB Audie Cole North Carolina State
(7) 219 DT Trevor Guyton California
Post-draft grade: B
Summary: After the draft I wrote, "The Vikings did pretty well. They got the left tackle they coveted in Matt Kalil, and they moved up to get a safety. Both Kalil and Harrison Smith, their two first-round picks, should be starting in Week 1. Josh Robinson adds speed, if not a lot of polish, at corner, and has the chance to develop into a good player." I'd say that sums up how I feel today, but the grade has to go up based on performance. Kalil not only started 16 games at left tackle, played well at a significant position and if his run-blocking catches up with his pass-blocking, he'll become among the league's best. Smith became exactly what the Vikings had hoped, started all 16 games at free safety and should be there for years to come. The instincts he showed at Notre Dame were on display, and he'll continue to get better. Robinson is raw, but could ultimately take over for Antoine Winfield. And don't overlook one of the steals of the draft. Blair Walsh was taken at No. 175 overall, and was the best kicker in the league in 2012. A year later, a pretty good draft looks even better.
New grade: A-
Chicago Bears
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 19 DE Shea McClellin Boise State
(2) 45 WR Alshon Jeffery South Carolina
(3) 79 S Brandon Hardin Oregon State
(4) 111 FB Evan Rodriguez Temple
(6) 184 CB Isaiah Frey Nevada
(7) 220 CB Greg McCoy TCU
Post-draft grade: C+
Summary: The Bears targeted needs at defensive end and wide receiver, and Shea McClellin had his moments, as did Alshon Jeffery when healthy. But questions I had about them exist today. I don't know if McClellin has the explosiveness to be an upper-crust pass-rusher at the NFL level, and while Jeffery can be a physical matchup problem, questions about his speed, ability to separate and take the top off the defense as a deep threat remain. Evan Rodriguez was a nice conversion -- he was a tight end at Temple, but the Bears used him as a fullback, and I can see his role expanding. But that's really it for the draft. Rodriguez is the only player taken you can feel confident will be listed as a starter on the Week 1 depth chart for 2013, so hopefully McClellin and Jeffery can continue to grow into bigger roles. The biggest question I had then was the fact that Chicago didn't take a single offensive lineman -- it was the top need I had listed -- and that's still a big question mark as the Bears head into another offseason.
New grade: C-
Detroit Lions
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 23 T Riley Reiff Iowa
(2) 54 WR Ryan Broyles Oklahoma
(3) 85 CB Dwight Bentley Louisiana-Lafayette
(4) 125 LB Ronnell Lewis Oklahoma
(5) 138 LB Tahir Whitehead Temple
(5) 148 CB Chris Greenwood Albion
(6) 196 CB Jonte Green New Mexico State
(7) 223 LB Travis Lewis Oklahoma
Post-draft grade: B
Summary: At the time, I thought Detroit did pretty well, and it still may end up that way. But the return thus far has been minimal, with a key injury part of the problem. Riley Reiff was a pretty good value at No. 23 overall, a player that could come in and provide starts at right tackle with the goal of ultimately taking over for Jeff Backus at left tackle. That may be his role in 2013. The big disappointment in this class is Ryan Broyles, who was starting to flash some of the ability that had him on my Big Board before an ACL tear at Oklahoma. Well, he tore an ACL again after catching 22 passes. Hopefully he comes back once again, because he has a ton of ability. We didn't see much of third-rounder Bill Bentley, and Jonte Green (No. 196 overall) turned into the biggest contributor the Lions got out of the rookie class at cornerback, a major need position for them going into the draft. Tahir Whitehead and Travis Lewis both saw the field, but the draft thus far has been merely average. If Reiff becomes the answer at left tackle and Broyles can get healthy once again, this grade could improve.
New grade: C
NFC South
New Orleans Saints
Round Pick Position Player College
(3) 90 DT Akiem Hicks Regina, Can.
(4) 122 WR Nick Toon Wisconsin
(5) 162 S Corey White Samford
(6) 179 G Andrew Tiller Syracuse
(7) 234 T Marcel Jones Nebraska
Post-draft grade: C-
Summary: There really weren't any expectations for this draft. The Saints didn't have a first-round pick because of a trade, and the NFL stripped them of a pick in Round 2. By the time they picked at No. 90 overall, it was at the point where fans start to become impressed we have good footage on some of the players taken. That certainly qualified when they took defensive tackle Akiem Hicks, who had been playing his college ball in Canada. Hicks isn't a classic sleeper, given he could have been playing at LSU if things had worked out, and towards the end of the season we saw flashes of that talent. But he's no lock to become a starter. Corey White saw some time in the secondary, but that's really the entirety of the first-year contributions out of this draft.
New grade: D
Atlanta Falcons
Round Pick Position Player College
(2) 55 C Peter Konz Wisconsin
(3) 91 T Lamar Holmes Southern Mississippi
(5) 157 FB Bradie Ewing Wisconsin
(5) 164 DE Jonathan Massaquoi Troy
(6) 192 S Charles Mitchell Mississippi State
(7) 249 NT Travian Robertson South Carolina
Post-draft grade: C
Summary: The Falcons didn't draft until No. 55 overall, but they got a player I considered the best at his position. Peter Konz was my top-rated center on draft day, and he finished the season as a starter at guard. He should remain as a starter on the interior of Atlanta's offensive line. There isn't much to point to after that, but again, this for a team that didn't have significant holes. The pass rush was an area of concern, and Jonathan Massaquoi still has a chance to develop after being taken at No. 164 overall out of Troy. Late picks Charles Mitchell and Travian Robertson both managed to stick, but so far the draft is basically Konz and some hope for Massaquoi.
New grade: C
Carolina Panthers
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 9 LB Luke Kuechly Boston College
(2) 40 G Amini Silatolu Midwestern State
(4) 103 DE Frank Alexander Oklahoma
(4) 104 WR Joe Adams Arkansas
(5) 143 CB Josh Norman Coastal Carolina
(6) 207 P Brad Nortman Wisconsin
(7) 216 S D.J. Campbell California
Post-draft grade: B-
Summary: No team that didn't reach the playoffs finished as well as the Panthers, who won their last four games (five of their last six) -- and the 2012 draft played a big role. Luke Kuechly seems destined to be one of the top players from this draft. Taking an inside linebacker inside the top 10 raises value questions, but not when you hit a home run. Kuechly wasn't just good, he led the NFL in tackles and he should only continue to get better. (Kuechly doesn't turn 22 until a week before the 2013 draft.) You could see his exceptional instincts on display early. Amini Silatolu moved inside and started 15 games at guard. He struggled, but also started to play his best football towards the end of the season. Frank Alexander played in every game, and could develop into a pretty good pass-rusher. Josh Norman was raw coming out of Coastal Carolina, but should be a starter at corner in Week 1 next season, and has the chance to get a lot better as his technical skills catch up with his athleticism. And hey, the Panthers even got a pretty good punter in a reasonable value range, drafting Brad Nortman at No. 207 overall. Kuechly is the gem, and the grade reflects that not all of these guys see as much time on a contender, but this is not a bad draft at all for the Panthers. We'll see if the good play from the end of the season can carry over.
New grade: B
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 7 S Mark Barron Alabama
(1) 31 RB Doug Martin Boise State
(2) 58 LB Lavonte David Nebraska
(5) 140 LB Najee Goode West Virginia
(6) 174 CB Keith Tandy West Virginia
(7) 212 RB Michael Smith Utah State
(7) 233 TE Drake Dunsmore Northwestern
Post-draft grade: A
Summary: After a season in the books, I still really like this draft. At the time I wrote, "In terms of adding impactful talent, and working the board, it's hard to do any better than Tampa Bay did in the first two rounds." You can question positional value drafting a safety in the top 10, but it was a big need, and Mark Barron was the best safety available in the draft. He has work to do in his ability to cover, but he started all 16 games and should only get better. Doug Martin is already one of the top running backs in the NFL, and does everything well -- running, catching, blocking and even holding onto the ball. He fell just short of 2,000 total yards. Lavonte David was one of my favorite picks in the draft, a steal at No. 58 overall, and 16 starts and 139 tackles later can't be considered anything less than a great value for the Bucs. There isn't much to show for the later rounds, but the Bucs got three impact starters with their first three picks, and worked the board well to land Martin. Can't ask for much more in terms of immediate impact.
New grade: A
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 30 WR A.J. Jenkins Illinois
(2) 61 RB LaMichael James Oregon
(4) 117 G Joe Looney Wake Forest
(5) 165 LB Darius Fleming Notre Dame
(6) 180 S Trent Robinson Michigan State
(6) 199 C Jason Slowey Western Oregon
(7) 237 LB Cam Johnson Virginia
Post-draft grade: C+
Summary: You can be cynical by looking at this draft class and asking, "Where's the impact?" Then you can be realistic and wonder exactly how the 49ers were going to draft players capable of improving what was already the best roster in the NFL. A.J. Jenkins might have seemed like a reasonable need pick at the time, but are you surprised a young wide receiver wasn't used on a team where Mario Manningham and Randy Moss were added in free agency? And LaMichael James is a major offensive threat, but with Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter already on the roster when he was drafted, there weren't go to be many carries available. James, fittingly, is now playing a key role as the Super Bowl approaches. If you want a memory of a player with big-time talent who didn't play an immediate role on a good team, recall that Ricky Watters was taken by the 49ers in 1991 and didn't see the field as a rookie. It was a really good team. But in his second season, Watters had more than 1,000 yards rushing and started to emerge as a star. After the draft I wrote, "Not a bad draft at all, and you could see their strategy. It's tough to add early impact to a good roster." The Niners didn't see early impact, but given where the team is, we can't say this won't be an impactful draft. Consider it an "incomplete" with the highest compliments.
New grade: Incomplete
Seattle Seahawks
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 15 DE Bruce Irvin West Virginia
(2) 47 LB Bobby Wagner Utah State
(3) 75 QB Russell Wilson Wisconsin
(4) 106 RB Robert Turbin Utah State
(4) 114 DT Jaye Howard Florida
(5) 154 LB Korey Toomer Idaho
(6) 172 CB Jeremy Lane Northwestern State
(6) 181 CB Winston Guy Kentucky
(7) 225 DT J.R. Sweezy North Carolina State
(7) 232 DE Greg Scruggs Louisville
Post-draft grade: C-
Summary: Give John Schneider and Pete Carroll all the credit in the world. I had major questions on value and even need with some of their picks, and in most cases, the Seahawks proved me wrong. At the time I wrote, "Let's be clear: I think the Seahawks drafted guys they really wanted, and with a plan in mind for how to use them." Did they ever. Russell Wilson might be the defining pick of the draft, already a star and a guy Seattle got at No. 75 overall. I really liked Wilson as a prospect, and said on the set I thought he'd be "a great test case" for short quarterbacks. My question of the pick also had to do with the fact that Seattle had acquired Matt Flynn. If Wilson had been 6-foot-2, I think he would have been a top-5 pick -- said it then, say it now. Is that evaluation still reasonable? Has Wilson proven that short QBs can't all be lumped together? Ultimately, evaluators will still have questions about whether short QBs can succeed because they simply have so few of them to evaluate. The sample size for guys at Wilson's size who've succeeded as he has is so small that not only is Wilson almost unique, I don't see a QB like him coming along for years. But there's no way around the fact that he was a great pick, perhaps the best of the draft when you consider where he was taken.
I also had questions about the value of Bobby Wagner at No. 47 overall, but he was a home run, an impact starter and a guy who will be a fixture for years to come. Robert Turbin, Jeremy Lane and Greg Scruggs also look like great picks. The one pick I really questioned then and still feel the same way about is Bruce Irvin at No. 15 overall. There's no question Irvin can rush the passer, but that's really all he can do, and I still don't see him as a good value at that spot because he's so one-dimensional. I wrote then, "I wouldn't be surprised if Irvin gets 10 sacks in 2012, but that's really his game. He's not a three-down player yet." He still isn't, and is a total liability against the run, as we saw against Atlanta in the playoffs. He finished with 8.0 sacks, but has plenty of development left if he wants to become more than a situational player. I think you want more of a complete player at that point in the draft. Still, this was an exceptional draft, a very good one in terms of immediate value and likely a defining one for the franchise based on Wilson alone.
New grade: A
Arizona Cardinals
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 13 WR Michael Floyd Notre Dame
(3) 80 CB Jamell Fleming Oklahoma
(4) 112 T Bobby Massie Mississippi
(5) 151 T Senio Kelemete Washington
(6) 177 CB Justin Bethel Presbyterian
(6) 185 QB Ryan Lindley San Diego State
(7) 221 T Nate Potter Boise State
Post-draft grade: B-
Summary: This is a draft class that looks a lot better after a full season than it did early on. Michael Floyd didn't have much impact early, but he was a much bigger factor in the second half and finished the season with 45 catches. Bobby Massie wasn't ready to be a starting NFL tackle and was totally overmatched when he was thrust into the role to start the season. But 16 starts later, he looks a lot better, and could help solidify a key position going forward. That's not bad for a fourth-round pick. Same with Nate Potter, a seventh-rounder who finished with six starts, and could hold down the left tackle role in years to come if he continues to improve. I don't see Ryan Lindley as an NFL starter, but he was also thrust into the role late in the year. Floyd should improve, and if Massie and Potter have the chance to get better and block for a better QB, this draft should look a lot better in the years to come. So I'll improve the grade, with development the goal.
New grade: B
St. Louis Rams
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 14 DT Michael Brockers LSU
(2) 33 WR Brian Quick Appalachian State
(2) 39 CB Janoris Jenkins North Alabama
(2) 50 RB Isaiah Pead Cincinnati
(3) 65 CB Trumaine Johnson Montana
(4) 96 WR Chris Givens Wake Forest
(5) 150 T Rokevious Watkins South Carolina
(6) 171 K Greg Zuerlein Missouri Western
(7) 209 LB Aaron Brown Hawaii
(7) 252 RB Daryl Richardson Abilene Christian
Post-draft grade: B-
Summary: The Rams landed a massive amount of draft value when they dealt the No. 2 pick to Washington, but would they make something of it? At the time I wrote, "The St. Louis Rams got a lot of nice players in Round 2. The downside, as Jon Gruden noted to me, is that this was a team that at one time held the No. 2 overall pick in the draft. The Rams were in a position to draft a guy they assume is capable of stardom. Did they get adequate return in this draft (remember, a lot of the value will be coming in the next few years given the trade parameters)?" So far, I think you have to conclude they did. The Rams got eight players in the 2012 draft who have already been contributors, and for a team that really improved. Janoris Jenkins played up to his talent level, and has Pro Bowls in his future. Once healthy, Michael Brockers delivered impact on what will be a very good defensive line. Chris Givens can be a good wide receiver and showed big-play potential, and Brian Quick has a chance to develop. Trumaine Johnson found his way into the starting lineup at corner, and both Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead will see more of the ball next season. And don't forget Greg Zuerlein, who made 23 of 31 field goals, but six of those misses came from beyond 50 yards, where he was a very good 7 of 13 overall. Yes, they gave up a No. 2 pick, but they have a first-rounder in each of the next two drafts, and cashed in with a ton of value from this one. This roster could be one of the league's most talented by 2014. They could have done a lot worse.
New grade: B+
San Francisco 49ers
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 30 WR A.J. Jenkins Illinois
(2) 61 RB LaMichael James Oregon
(4) 117 G Joe Looney Wake Forest
(5) 165 LB Darius Fleming Notre Dame
(6) 180 S Trent Robinson Michigan State
(6) 199 C Jason Slowey Western Oregon
(7) 237 LB Cam Johnson Virginia
Post-draft grade: C+
Summary: You can be cynical by looking at this draft class and asking, "Where's the impact?" Then you can be realistic and wonder exactly how the 49ers were going to draft players capable of improving what was already the best roster in the NFL. A.J. Jenkins might have seemed like a reasonable need pick at the time, but are you surprised a young wide receiver wasn't used on a team where Mario Manningham and Randy Moss were added in free agency? And LaMichael James is a major offensive threat, but with Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter already on the roster when he was drafted, there weren't go to be many carries available. James, fittingly, is now playing a key role as the Super Bowl approaches. If you want a memory of a player with big-time talent who didn't play an immediate role on a good team, recall that Ricky Watters was taken by the 49ers in 1991 and didn't see the field as a rookie. It was a really good team. But in his second season, Watters had more than 1,000 yards rushing and started to emerge as a star. After the draft I wrote, "Not a bad draft at all, and you could see their strategy. It's tough to add early impact to a good roster." The Niners didn't see early impact, but given where the team is, we can't say this won't be an impactful draft. Consider it an "incomplete" with the highest compliments.
New grade: Incomplete
Seattle Seahawks
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 15 DE Bruce Irvin West Virginia
(2) 47 LB Bobby Wagner Utah State
(3) 75 QB Russell Wilson Wisconsin
(4) 106 RB Robert Turbin Utah State
(4) 114 DT Jaye Howard Florida
(5) 154 LB Korey Toomer Idaho
(6) 172 CB Jeremy Lane Northwestern State
(6) 181 CB Winston Guy Kentucky
(7) 225 DT J.R. Sweezy North Carolina State
(7) 232 DE Greg Scruggs Louisville
Post-draft grade: C-
Summary: Give John Schneider and Pete Carroll all the credit in the world. I had major questions on value and even need with some of their picks, and in most cases, the Seahawks proved me wrong. At the time I wrote, "Let's be clear: I think the Seahawks drafted guys they really wanted, and with a plan in mind for how to use them." Did they ever. Russell Wilson might be the defining pick of the draft, already a star and a guy Seattle got at No. 75 overall. I really liked Wilson as a prospect, and said on the set I thought he'd be "a great test case" for short quarterbacks. My question of the pick also had to do with the fact that Seattle had acquired Matt Flynn. If Wilson had been 6-foot-2, I think he would have been a top-5 pick -- said it then, say it now. Is that evaluation still reasonable? Has Wilson proven that short QBs can't all be lumped together? Ultimately, evaluators will still have questions about whether short QBs can succeed because they simply have so few of them to evaluate. The sample size for guys at Wilson's size who've succeeded as he has is so small that not only is Wilson almost unique, I don't see a QB like him coming along for years. But there's no way around the fact that he was a great pick, perhaps the best of the draft when you consider where he was taken.
I also had questions about the value of Bobby Wagner at No. 47 overall, but he was a home run, an impact starter and a guy who will be a fixture for years to come. Robert Turbin, Jeremy Lane and Greg Scruggs also look like great picks. The one pick I really questioned then and still feel the same way about is Bruce Irvin at No. 15 overall. There's no question Irvin can rush the passer, but that's really all he can do, and I still don't see him as a good value at that spot because he's so one-dimensional. I wrote then, "I wouldn't be surprised if Irvin gets 10 sacks in 2012, but that's really his game. He's not a three-down player yet." He still isn't, and is a total liability against the run, as we saw against Atlanta in the playoffs. He finished with 8.0 sacks, but has plenty of development left if he wants to become more than a situational player. I think you want more of a complete player at that point in the draft. Still, this was an exceptional draft, a very good one in terms of immediate value and likely a defining one for the franchise based on Wilson alone.
New grade: A
Arizona Cardinals
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 13 WR Michael Floyd Notre Dame
(3) 80 CB Jamell Fleming Oklahoma
(4) 112 T Bobby Massie Mississippi
(5) 151 T Senio Kelemete Washington
(6) 177 CB Justin Bethel Presbyterian
(6) 185 QB Ryan Lindley San Diego State
(7) 221 T Nate Potter Boise State
Post-draft grade: B-
Summary: This is a draft class that looks a lot better after a full season than it did early on. Michael Floyd didn't have much impact early, but he was a much bigger factor in the second half and finished the season with 45 catches. Bobby Massie wasn't ready to be a starting NFL tackle and was totally overmatched when he was thrust into the role to start the season. But 16 starts later, he looks a lot better, and could help solidify a key position going forward. That's not bad for a fourth-round pick. Same with Nate Potter, a seventh-rounder who finished with six starts, and could hold down the left tackle role in years to come if he continues to improve. I don't see Ryan Lindley as an NFL starter, but he was also thrust into the role late in the year. Floyd should improve, and if Massie and Potter have the chance to get better and block for a better QB, this draft should look a lot better in the years to come. So I'll improve the grade, with development the goal.
New grade: B
St. Louis Rams
Round Pick Position Player College
(1) 14 DT Michael Brockers LSU
(2) 33 WR Brian Quick Appalachian State
(2) 39 CB Janoris Jenkins North Alabama
(2) 50 RB Isaiah Pead Cincinnati
(3) 65 CB Trumaine Johnson Montana
(4) 96 WR Chris Givens Wake Forest
(5) 150 T Rokevious Watkins South Carolina
(6) 171 K Greg Zuerlein Missouri Western
(7) 209 LB Aaron Brown Hawaii
(7) 252 RB Daryl Richardson Abilene Christian
Post-draft grade: B-
Summary: The Rams landed a massive amount of draft value when they dealt the No. 2 pick to Washington, but would they make something of it? At the time I wrote, "The St. Louis Rams got a lot of nice players in Round 2. The downside, as Jon Gruden noted to me, is that this was a team that at one time held the No. 2 overall pick in the draft. The Rams were in a position to draft a guy they assume is capable of stardom. Did they get adequate return in this draft (remember, a lot of the value will be coming in the next few years given the trade parameters)?" So far, I think you have to conclude they did. The Rams got eight players in the 2012 draft who have already been contributors, and for a team that really improved. Janoris Jenkins played up to his talent level, and has Pro Bowls in his future. Once healthy, Michael Brockers delivered impact on what will be a very good defensive line. Chris Givens can be a good wide receiver and showed big-play potential, and Brian Quick has a chance to develop. Trumaine Johnson found his way into the starting lineup at corner, and both Daryl Richardson and Isaiah Pead will see more of the ball next season. And don't forget Greg Zuerlein, who made 23 of 31 field goals, but six of those misses came from beyond 50 yards, where he was a very good 7 of 13 overall. Yes, they gave up a No. 2 pick, but they have a first-rounder in each of the next two drafts, and cashed in with a ton of value from this one. This roster could be one of the league's most talented by 2014. They could have done a lot worse.
New grade: B+