Big Skoob, can I get that Offseason Viking insider posted today?
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Big Skoob, can I get that Offseason Viking insider posted today?
Offseason Playbook: Vikings
In a new offseason series, Insider takes an in-depth look at NFL teams before free agency begins March 12. What is each team's philosophy on offense and defense, biggest needs and one player who could make for an ideal signing in free agency?
Team philosophies
Offense -- With Adrian Peterson this will always be a run-first offense, but this run game has evolved with some creative plays and formations, blocking schemes and personnel groupings. The Vikings have made the transition from a zone-blocking offensive line to more of a man power scheme, but Peterson can run behind both looks. They will line up wide receivers in the backfield, they will flex their fullback, they will go to unbalanced and two-tight end formations, they will pull and trap and use the wham block -- all to take attention away from Peterson and open up more blocking room.
Christian Ponder will move around a lot in this West Coast passing game with bootlegs and half-rolls, and a lot of passes off play-action. The Vikings are not very good at attacking the edges and most of their throwing success comes on inside routes. They use Percy Harvin in a variety of roles, even in the backfield, and they love him out of the slot and on bubble screens. In the red zone, they like TE Kyle Rudolph on bootlegs and they will show some "bone" (three-back formations) looks, where they use their FB, Jerome Felton, as a lead blocker.
Defense -- This is a 4-3 under defense that head coach Leslie Frazier and coordinator Alan Williams know very well. They prefer to rush four and drop seven into coverage, with limited blitzing and a lot of zone Cover 2 schemes on the back end. Up front they are very creative with one-gap principles and twists and stunts -- they are always on the move. Dropping those seven defenders into coverage can cover up deficiencies on the back end. If they are forced to blitz they are not afraid to play man schemes and they really like the "cat" blitz off the edge, especially versus the slot receiver. They also stay in nickel more than most defenses. They have a little bit of a "bend, but don't break" philosophy and they play assignment football that preaches keeping everything in front of them and not giving up big plays.
Team needs
1. Wide receiver -- This is the weakest unit on this team, both in terms of a lack of personnel and also a lot of instability. Everything revolves around what happens with talented, but up-and-down Harvin. He can line up all over and he is by far the Vikings' most explosive player, but he struggles to stay healthy and always seems to be fighting with the organization. Will the Vikings trade him? Will he hold out for a new contract? Can he get though a full season without being hurt?
There is not a lot to get excited about after him. Jerome Simpson was an experiment that did not work out. He is an unrestricted free agent who will be gone and the only other receiver that they seem to like is Jarius Wright, but he is best in the slot -- and in a perfect world that is where they would line up Harvin. That means that they probably need two quality edge receivers with some speed -- maybe one in free agency and one in the draft.
2. Linebacker -- The starting trio of Chad Greenway, Jasper Brinkley and Erin Henderson is solid, but this is a defense that plays a lot of nickel personnel and when they get out of their base scheme, both Brinkley and Henderson are not great at dropping into coverage. Both guys are UFAs and the organization may look elsewhere for a more athletic cover LB who fits in those nickel schemes.
3. Cornerback -- Free safety Harrison Smith is a difference-maker and 35-year-old CB Antoine Winfield continues to play at a high level, but there are holes in this unit. The strong safety position must be upgraded, along with the depth, though at corner Chris Cook looks like the real deal to team with Winfield if he can stay healthy. They have some young developmental backups, but they also give up too many passing plays. A starter replacement eventually for Winfield and an athletic SS who is not a liability in coverage would be good ways to dramatically upgrade the back end of this defense.
4. Quarterback -- We know that Ponder is a frustrating "hot and cold" young QB, but the organization still believes that he is the Vikings' future. Backup Joe Webb really fizzled when he got his chance to play in the playoffs and now there seems to be real doubt about his ability to run this offense. They will look for a more dependable No. 2 QB.
5. Running back -- Not much needs to be said about Peterson. Toby Gerhart is a solid physical backup, but Minnesota could use a third-down back who offers a change of pace.
6. Defensive tackle -- DTs are really important in this defense, both in terms of penetration and ability to stack at the point of attack and also help the DEs, especially Jared Allen. Kevin Williams will be 33 in 2013, and while the Vikings have a decent four-man DT rotation they could look for an eventual replacement for him.
Key free-agent move
Mike Wallace, WR, UFA
The Vikings have a healthy salary-cap situation and a glaring need to improve at wide receiver, making Wallace an ideal fit in Minnesota.
Wallace possesses rare speed, and though his production tapered off in 2012 compared to his previous two seasons, he remains one of the most dangerous downfield threats in the league.
For an offense that is centered around pounding the football with Peterson, adding an explosive edge receiver in Wallace would effectively take the top off of defenses and create further lanes for Peterson to run.
Given that he rushed for more than 2,000 yards in 2012 with the minimal threat of a downfield passing game, an offense that features both Peterson and Wallace as well as Harvin is imposing.
Wallace is looking to cash in after playing for $2.72 million in 2012, and his modest production last season is not expected to dramatically affect the offers he is hoping to receive as a free agent.
Minnesota surprised many by winning 10 games in 2012, and adding a unique talent in Wallace would help this franchise further challenge the Green Bay Packers in the NFC North.
954UAlreadyknow
All Star
Who is No. 1 prospect for 2013?
The discussion: Who is currently the No. 1 prospect for the 2013 NBA draft?
Jay Bilas: Most observers seem to agree that this is not a year for great prospects in the NBA draft. While there are not as many no-brainers who project as All-NBA performers or NBA starters, there are still some really good prospects this year. In my judgment, however, the No. 1 prospect in the 2013 NBA draft class is Kansas redshirt freshman Ben McLemore.
McLemore is just 20 years old and relatively young in the game, having sat out all of last season, only able to practice during the second semester. McLemore is very much a Ray Allen-type player, a superior athlete who can really shoot it, and has an uncanny smoothness to his game. McLemore averages 16 points per game, but his percentages are really impressive: He is shooting 49 percent from the field, 43 percent from 3-point range and 88 percent from the line.
McLemore has a certain humility about him. He works hard, is not entitled and is a really good teammate. As he matures, both physically and emotionally, I believe he will be more assertive, and take on the personality to be able to take over games. At 6-foot-5, McLemore is an elite leaper and finisher, and I believe he has the tools to be an excellent defender. As he improves his handle and passing, which are already good -- and learns to more efficiently use his body to create space to get his own shot -- I believe he is the best value pick in the NBA draft.
Two other players who I would consider after McLemore would be Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart and Indiana's Victor Oladipo. Smart is a basketball player rather than a position projection. He plays and competes at both ends, and he is productive in so many different areas. Smart scores, rebounds at a high rate and is an excellent passer. While he is not as dynamic as Oladipo, he is an excellent athlete and defender, and he has more steals and assists than Oladipo.
Oladipo is a dynamic athlete, an elite defender and finishes extremely well in transition. I believe he could be even more effective in the NBA than in college. To have a lockdown defender who can also make open shots and finish with Russell Westbrook- or Dwyane Wade-type athleticism is worth taking higher in this relatively weak NBA draft.
Chad Ford: Some years it's clear to everyone who the No. 1 prospect in the draft is. This year, the waters are much, much muddier.
In talking to a number of NBA scouts and executives, it looks like as many as six players are being seriously considered for the top spot in the draft, including Kansas' McLemore, Kentucky's Nerlens Noel, Oklahoma State's Smart, UNLV's Anthony Bennett, Indiana's Oladipo and Maryland's Alex Len.
Of those six players, three of them -- McLemore, Noel and Smart -- have the strongest support among executives.
When there is such parity at the top of the draft, NBA teams tend to draft based on need. Given those various needs, McLemore, Noel and Smart float to the top of draft boards depending on which team is drafting No. 1.
But regardless of team needs and position, who is the best NBA prospect in college basketball this season?
While I think you could make a strong case for all six players (and a seventh in Georgetown's Otto Porter Jr.), I have it narrowed down to two players in my mind: Noel and Smart.
The case for Noel: He ticks off a lot of boxes that NBA scouts look for. He's an elite athlete, and he has the right size and length for his position. He has translatable NBA skills, including shot-blocking and rebounding. He also plays very hard, which is a rarity among athletic bigs. Finally, he's put in the work on his game and has improved greatly over the past 12 months. In other words, the work ethic is there.
The case against Noel: Typically, No. 1 picks are skilled offensively. Noel is still very raw. In fact, if you go back and take a look at past No. 1 picks, no player has averaged fewer points per game than Noel (10.5). Combine that with the terrible ACL injury he suffered a few weeks ago, and Noel would also be the first top pick since Kenyon Martin to be injured when taken No. 1.
The case for Smart: He's having a very good freshman season, leading the Cowboys to a top-15 ranking in the polls. He's largely been the catalyst for their rise. Smart has great size and strength for the point guard position. He also plays with a terrific motor. He's very difficult to stop going to the basket and plays an unselfish style of basketball that gets others involved. On the defensive end, Smart is a nightmare. He uses his strength and quickness to bully opposing guards. Most importantly, coaches rave about his leadership, work ethic and character. He's the leader of this team and has been wherever he's played. While he has weaknesses, the NBA scouts and executives I spoke with think he's the type of player who will put in the work to overcome them.
The case against Smart: He's a marginal jump-shooter and he can be turnover-prone. While he's a good athlete, he doesn't possess the elite quickness of some of the top point guards in the NBA. He can be rightly classified as more of a combo guard than a true point guard right now.
The rest of the group has their strengths and weaknesses. McLemore is an excellent athlete and shooter, but struggles to create his own shot and can disappear for stretches. Bennett is a versatile athlete who can score in a variety of ways, but he's also a bit of a "tweener" and has struggled with double-teams. Oladipo has the best motor in college basketball and is a crazy athlete, but he's not a dominant scorer. Len has the requisite size and skill to be a dominant big man, but he's woefully inconsistent.
If I was drafting No. 1 and needed a building block for my team, I'd take Smart first overall with Noel a very close second. Oladipo would be third, Porter fourth and McLemore fifth. Don't hold me to that in June, but as of now, that's where I stand.
Prospect on the rise
Ford: Otto Porter Jr., F, Georgetown Hoyas
I wrote about Porter in November as a prospect to watch, as an undervalued prospect in January and as a top wing last week. But after his 33-point performance against Syracuse last week, I want to say a little more.
In his past eight games, Porter is sporting an incredible offensive rating (ORtg) of 147.13 while using 26.4 percent of his team's possessions, which ranks him No. 1 in the nation on Ken Pomeroy's player stats leaderboard. The two closest players on our Big Board are Michigan's Trey Burke (128.4 ORtg on 28.2 percent of possessions) and Oladipo (128.4 ORtg on 22.4 percent of possessions). Gonzaga's Kelly Olynyk (126.8 ORtg on 29.8 percent of possessions) is next.
For those scouts who worried that Porter was too much of a wallflower and couldn't take over a team, the numbers seem to strongly suggest otherwise. Porter has moved to No. 6 on our Big Board and ahead of Shabazz Muhammad as the top small forward in the draft.
Bilas: Shabazz Muhammad, F, UCLA Bruins
The more I watch Muhammad, the more I like him. Look, I know the kid reacted poorly with his body language earlier this month, when his teammate made a game-winning shot after looking him off, but he is still just a kid. He'll grow from that. Regardless, his talent and ability are undeniable.
Muhammad is a lefty who can post, finish through contact and can hit shots coming off of screens when he is squared and has his feet set. Muhammad missed most of the preseason and early season, first with an NCAA investigation and then with a shoulder injury. Yet he is averaging 18.3 points and 5.2 rebounds per game, and he is shooting 43 percent from 3-point range and gets to the free throw line almost six times per game. Muhammad has scored 20 points or more in 11 of his 24 games, and has learned to play better, more focused defense under Ben Howland. Muhammad is an excellent prospect who is making good strides.
What to watch for this week
Bilas: I will be in Los Angeles this weekend, watching UCLA take on Arizona (ESPN, Saturday, 9 p.m. ET). I am really looking forward to seeing the Wildcats take on the challenge of playing in Pauley Pavilion (and seeing the new and improved Pauley Pavilion), as well as seeing UCLA freshmen Muhammad and Kyle Anderson again.
Before that, on Thursday night, Duke travels to Virginia (ESPN, 9 p.m. ET), where the Cavaliers have been very good. I believe that Duke can win the national championship with a healthy Ryan Kelly, but not without him. However, even without Kelly, Duke can still catch Miami for a share of the ACC regular-season crown. Without a win over Virginia, however, that share won't happen.
On Friday, Harvard will travel to Princeton (ESPNU, 7 p.m. ET) to take on Ian Hummer and the Tigers. Harvard is a game ahead of Princeton in the loss column, and a win in this game would put Harvard in the driver's seat for the Ivy title, its third in three seasons.
On Saturday, Miami at Duke (ESPN, 6 p.m. ET) is the game of the day, especially if Duke is able to get past Virginia. As Digger Phelps would say (and will), this is a "payback" game. Also on Saturday, Louisville travels to Syracuse. The Orange need a win for the standings, a better tournament seeding and their overall mental health heading into postseason play.
Ford: I'm really interested in the Michigan-Michigan State game on Sunday. Not only does it have huge Big Ten ramifications, but it gives me a chance to watch a whopping nine NBA draft prospects in a single game.
Right now MSU's Gary Harris is the hottest riser in the draft and a potential top-10 pick. Burke is another potential lottery pick, and Glenn Robinson III is getting serious consideration in the first round. Another hot name right now is MSU's Adreian Payne. His size, athletic ability and surprising shooting touch have some scouts touting him as a first-round pick. And over the course of the past week, I've had several GMs tell me that Brandon Dawson was also ranked in their top 30. Tim Hardaway Jr. has his fans as a potential second-round pick. Mitch McGary and Nik Stauskas could be first-round picks in 2014. There's a lot to take in.
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VegetasHairline
Veteran
Imagine that you're a hotshot lawyer, architect or engineer. You're one of the best ever in your field. You get plenty of accolades, win plenty of awards and with you leading the way, your firm was named the best in the world one year.
You've got a good friend who's in the same business. He's excellent, even better than you in most people's eyes. But you're not sure; you'd certainly argue that you're just as good as he is, and hey, he has never led his firm to the No. 1 ranking in the world.
One year, you and your pal, looking to become the best firm ever, decide to join forces, so he comes to work for your company. The company you made famous. The company you've been the king of your entire career. The company where your picture and plaques are on the lobby wall near the entrance. When newspapers and magazines write glowing articles about your firm, it's you they quote. You've represented the firm on all of the television networks. And of course, you expect that to continue, especially when you and your buddy take the firm to even greater heights.
Within two years, you and your pal reach your goal, leading your firm to the world's top spot. But your pal is getting all of the credit. He has outshined you with a performance for the ages. It's no longer viewed as your firm; it's his firm now. Sure, your picture is still on the main wall, but they've put an even bigger picture of him next to it. He's being praised by all of the newspapers, magazines and networks. Your TV appearances dwindle as his skyrocket. Your partners rave about how he may be the best ever. You're still great, but even you know that he's better. Once Batman, you're now Robin, the sidekick, the second banana.
How would you handle that?
That's essentially what has happened to Dwyane Wade. And the way he has handled it has been just as impressive as the play of LeBron James.
Just as James' play -- particularly his incredible efficiency (he shot 64 percent in February) -- is nearly unprecedented, so is Wade's willingness to give up the spotlight. Some may argue that he has no choice. But even if he said all of the right things to the media and smiled in James' face, he could undermine the whole situation with bad body language and squawking behind James' back. He could subconsciously lose his enthusiasm for the game and wind up playing well below his potential.
Yet none of that has happened. Wade should get some love for that.
Think about it. Throughout NBA history, how many players have done -- or have been willing to do -- what Wade has? I mean, a guy in his prime. A guy who is a scorer at heart, not a pass-first player who naturally defers to scorers. A guy who is a dawg with a killer instinct.
Perhaps I'm wrong, but I can think of only one player who has come close to doing what Wade has: Earl "The Pearl'' Monroe.
Monroe, a Hall of Famer and one of the top 50 players of all time, rose to fame over the first four years of his career by averaging nearly 24 points a game for the Baltimore Bullets. But early in the 1971-72 season, he was traded to a star-laden, championship-caliber New York Knicks team. Paired with superstar Walt Frazier in the backcourt, Monroe averaged only 11 points his first season with the Knicks and then averaged 15.5 points in helping the team win a championship in 1973.
But even that sacrifice wasn't equal to Wade's. Rather than give up his own club to a newcomer, Monroe went to a different team. Monroe's situation was more like that of the Boston Celtics' "Big Three" of Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen. While Frazier was clearly the Knicks' best player at that point, other stars such as Dave DeBusschere, Bill Bradley and an aging Willis Reed also got to shine. It was a collection of stars sharing the spotlight rather than one superstar dominating the entire situation.
Paul Pierce
Greg M. Cooper/US PresswireUnlike Paul Pierce, who shared the spotlight in Boston with Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett, Wade has given up his leading role in Miami.
That's how it was for Boston's Big Three. It was more of a three-man show than a one-man show. Plus, none of the three had won a championship. The lone "lifetime Celtic,'' Paul Pierce, shared the spotlight rather than give it up almost completely.
Tiny Archibald became a role player while winning a ring with the Larry Bird-led Celtics, but Tiny was past his prime by that point. Mark Aguirre, one of the league's top scorers in Dallas, sacrificed his numbers en route to helping Detroit win two titles, but again, Aguirre was joining a new team. David Robinson moved aside in San Antonio as Tim Duncan emerged as the Spurs' best player, but Robinson was never a dawg like Wade. Same with Scottie Pippen, who willingly gave the Bulls back to Michael Jordan when he returned from his first retirement (obviously, that situation was different from Wade's for several other reasons). When Wilt Chamberlain gave up his scoring in 1972 to win a title with Jerry West and the Lakers, he was 35 years old and in his second-to-last season.
This is no slight, but I don't see Kobe Bryant or Allen Iverson making the sacrifice Wade has. The more I look at it, I'm not sure any player has ever moved aside like Wade.
While I didn't believe this a few months ago, I now see that Wade is probably still a top-five player in the league, certainly in the top eight. He is arguably still better than anyone not named LeBron or Kevin Durant.
Earlier in the season, I thought the 31-year-old Wade -- injuries and untold number of crashes to the floor having sapped him -- had lost at least half a step. I thought he was still elite, but not quite what he used to be. But after watching him average 24 points, 6 rebounds and more than 5 assists in February, and 25 points over his past 10 games -- that's not to mention his career-high 51.6 percent shooting for the entire season -- I'm convinced that Wade is just as good as ever. If LeBron weren't there, I'm sure Wade could put up the same type of numbers he always has.
But he has given up his individual numbers, MVP chances and ownership of the team for a chance to win more championships. You can't help but give him props for that.
My guess is that this role will last two more seasons, after which both LeBron and Wade (and Chris Bosh) can opt out of their contracts. I believe the chances of LeBron opting out and returning to Cleveland in the summer of 2014 are good. I don't think he'll go to the Lakers, but that's also a possibility. And of course he may stay in Miami.
But I think LeBron, after winning at least one more ring in Miami (and perhaps two), will want to return to Ohio and make things right at home. And while I think LeBron and Wade will remain great friends, I think Wade will welcome a return to top-dawg status. Granted, he'll be 33 going on 34 at the start of the 2014-15 season, but with today's improved training, treatment methods and nutrition, Wade should still have some elite years left in him.
In the meantime, he'll settle for playing in the Finals and perhaps winning championships while his terrific play gets overshadowed by LeBron's greatness. It's obviously a trade-off he's willing to make. Kudos to him for that.
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FreedS[ohh]lave
Banned
Anyone want to give out the username and password to their insider for the board like that nikka jutt did till it expired
YourMajesty
F*ck Ya Corny Debates
Russell Westbrook the next Kobe?
There really hasn't been a star like Kobe Bryant, who has had both a huge following of supporters and a long line of haters.
Winning two titles without Shaquille O'Neal has helped put his legacy in a positive light, but questions about his willingness to be a consistent "team guy" still exist. He makes it more challenging for his doubters when he decides to be a passer and then does so extraordinarily well. His zeal to win and fully compete shape him into a single-minded scorer all too often, making him a hard guy to feel warm and fuzzy about.
In Oklahoma City, there is now another all-NBA-caliber player who boils the blood of his detractors with his rambunctious actions, facial expressions and decision-making, while inspiring his teammates and fans with his lust for winning: Russell Westbrook.
Is Westbrook the next Kobe Bryant, a lethal scoring machine who can help carry a team to titles while still infuriating the masses? The similarities between the two are striking.
Power guards
Bryant and Westbrook can both dominate opponents physically. As an athlete in his prime, Kobe had it all -- the incredibly rare combination of length, elite athleticism in terms of quickness and bounce, and the power to play through defenders and not just around them. The only other shooting guards to ever have that combination, at Kobe's size, were Michael Jordan and Clyde Drexler. (Walter Davis lacked power, as did Tracy McGrady and Vince Carter. Dwyane Wade is significantly smaller.)
Westbrook is even rarer. He ranks as the most athletic point guard we have ever seen. His overall combination of physical skills gives him a bigger advantage in that aspect of the game than any point guard has ever enjoyed. But it comes at a price, as we have seen for years with Kobe.
For lack of a better word, both men are often "bullies" in games, just like Shaq and Charles Barkley and pretty much every great big man who featured a dominant physical game. Coaches demand that players with physical advantages use them as often as possible. So powerful players develop a mindset to dominate and relentlessly attack opponents. This can lead to the player becoming single-minded in his effort to overmatch the opponent.
The issue with Kobe and Westbrook is that they are guards and have the ball in their hands all the time. There's a saying, "To a hammer, everything looks like a nail." That applies perfectly to Kobe and Westbrook. They are almost always being defended by men who simply cannot match up with them physically. Some might be strong enough but lack the quickness. Others might be quicker but slighter. And almost all of them are shorter.
Kobe and Westbrook, therefore, do what any big man would do -- they look to exploit that disparity of physical talent against their defender and most help defenders, as well. This is where their games most parallel each other and where they draw the most criticism: Because of their physical advantages, they take more bad shots than they should since they can get them off and make enough to continue to believe that they are good shots.
Intense competitors
Both Kobe and Westbrook have a complete offensive game to match their physical prowess. They also have the necessary IQ to read the game. Kobe, to most experts' eyes, can be like a coach on the floor. His pedigree, playing for the best NBA coach in history (Phil Jackson) for so many seasons, gives him an understanding of the game few have. So when Kobe has launched one long contested jumper after another during his career, playing with men who were capable of scoring and were open, it was seen as Kobe ignoring what he knew to be the right play and instead focusing on his own matchup advantage.
To Westbrook, every defender looks like a "mark," and he goes about taking the mark down almost every chance he gets. When he does so while Kevin Durant is waiting patiently in the wings, and Westbrook misses shot after shot, that is when his decision-making is criticized.
Unlike Kobe, we are not yet sure Westbrook understands all of the mistakes he is making. No one is ready to proclaim him as one of the smartest guards in the league.
Ironically, the same incredible driving force that compels both men to churn out bad possessions also can serve as their guiding light. Kobe has been considered the most competitive player in the league for years. Chris Paul is in that same league, and Westbrook is quickly getting there. The true competitor wants to prepare to win just as much as he wants to win, because he understands how more of the former leads to more of the latter.
Kobe, following in the footsteps of guys such as Jordan, Magic and Bird, was always able to add skills to his game. And we are seeing that same pattern in Westbrook. He can "hammer" opponents with his jump shot now better than he ever could, which often leads to his problems.
Westbrook has a favorite move, in which he rises up to shoot a jumper just as he appears to be ready to drive hard to the rim, and he can hang on to the ball and change the timing of his release to ensure he can get it off. It's a hard shot to contest, but it is also a hard shot to make. Westbrook has taken 471 2-point shots between five feet and the 3-point line and has made just 171 of them (36.3 percent). Of those shots, 355 of them were from 10 to 19 feet, most of which were the pull-up jumpers off the dribble that he loves. But he has made only 135 of them (38 percent).
It's not as if Westbrook is a ball hog who leaves Durant to fend for himself. Westbrook has assisted on 163 of Durant's made field goals and has found Serge Ibaka for buckets 130 times. Those are significant numbers when considering that missed shots and fouls are not counted. So we know that he values his role as the lead ball handler and understands his teammates can't be expected to play well if they are not involved in the offense. He just doesn't seem to do it often enough.
But there is every reason to believe that another postseason failure will compel him to reconsider his strategies.
Can Westbrook have Kobe's success?
The Thunder have one of the best offenses in the league in recent seasons. Still, there is room for improvement if and when their starting point guard recognizes that he and his team would be better off if he turned down just a few of those tough jumpers and attacked the rim or moved the ball to an open teammate instead. Critics of Kobe and the Lakers also recognize that line of thinking.
Ultimately, Kobe has been able to get away with a lot of his bad habits because his teams have won five titles and he never played with another top wing scorer. Westbrook hasn't won anything at this level yet and plays alongside the league's best wing scorer, which is why some thought the Thunder should have kept James Harden and traded Westbrook.
There is a fine line between employing Westbrook like a sledgehammer while still running a beautiful offense; the Thunder don't want to curb Westbrook and therefore hurt the team, or let him do too much and render the offense less effective. It begins and ends with Westbrook's willingness to play with that edge yet not take as many of those tough jump shots. If he does that, he can quiet his critics, just as Kobe has.
2013 NFL Mock Draft 3.0
UPDATE: The mock draft has been adjusted to reflect the trade of Percy Harvin from Minnesota to Seattle. It shifts a number of picks.
1 Luke Joeckel
Kansas City Chiefs (2-14)
COLLEGE: Texas A&MAGE: 21HT: 6-6WT: 306POS: OT
Pick analysis: Joeckel can play a huge role this season as the immediate starter at right tackle, and could become the left tackle of the future. Joeckel is a complete package, a gifted pass-blocker who utilizes great technique and also brings power in the run game.
Free agency factor: Branden Albert was franchised, but Joeckel could replace him next year on the left side if the Chiefs let him walk, saving them a ton of money at a premium position. I don't think any moves they make in 2013 free agency will play into this pick.
2 Eric Fisher
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14)
COLLEGE: Central MichiganAGE: 22HT: 6-7WT: 306POS: OT
Pick analysis: The Jags really need help on the pass rush, but they can get help there in Round 2. In taking Fisher, they improve their situation at left tackle, and there's no certainty that incumbent Eugene Monroe will be around in 2014. The Jags will never know what they have at QB if they can't do a better job in pass protection.
Free agency factor: The Jags could re-think this pick based on need if they can't find any pass-rush help in free agency. They have some cap space to add, but my guess is the team will be really focused on improving on several years of weak drafts.
3 Sharrif Floyd
*Oakland Raiders (4-12)
COLLEGE: FloridaAGE: 20HT: 6-3WT: 297POS: DT
Pick analysis: The Raiders are in desperate need of young talent on the defensive line after a year where they were far too often gashed by the run. Floyd is a dynamic young talent, has played inside and on the edge and uses great leverage and power to drive blockers back and blow up plays.
Free agency factor: The future for Carson Palmer is a question mark because of his massive contract, and I can see the Raiders taking a hard look at a QB with this pick, even if the value range doesn't line up well. The Raiders also must find upgrades at linebacker. All in all, free agency shouldn't have much of an affect on this selection.
4 Dee Milliner
*Philadelphia Eagles (4-12)
COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 6-0WT: 201POS: CB
Pick analysis: Nnamdi Asomugha won't be wearing an Eagles uniform in 2013, and in a division with Eli Manning, Tony Romo and Robert Griffin III, the Eagles can't simply attempt to piece together the secondary. They need talent, and Milliner offers the best cornerback talent in the draft. Not a tough pick.
Free-agency factor: There isn't much in the way of top-end talent available in free agency if you want to improve your secondary, so I'm not sure any shopping will change the basis for this pick.
5 Ezekiel Ansah
Detroit Lions (4-12)
COLLEGE: BYUAGE: 23HT: 6-5WT: 271POS: DE
Pick analysis: The Lions have some glaring holes at defensive end with Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cliff Avril headed elsewhere, but that also could create an opportunity for an upgrade. Ansah is raw in terms of football skills, but he can develop into an explosive pass-rusher in that scheme, with strength to hold up against the run.
Free-agency factor: The Lions don't have the cap space to throw major dollars around, so they need to get the best player available at defensive end, cornerback or at offensive tackle. I don't think free agency will have a big impact on this pick.
6 Dion Jordan
Cleveland Browns (5-11)
COLLEGE: OregonAGE: 23HT: 6-6WT: 248POS: OLB
Pick analysis: The Browns had one of the worst pass rushes in the league last year, even with Jabaal Sheard around. Jordan is a long, explosive pass-rusher with freakish athleticism and an ability to work in space. This is a guy you want to unleash in a 3-4.
Free-agency factor: The Browns could be looking for some pass-rush help, but they won't find a player with better value than Jordan for their system. Yes, the Browns could still make a move for a quarterback, but I'm quite certain they won't use this pick for one if they can't add one via free agency or trade.
7 Geno Smith
Arizona Cardinals (5-11)
COLLEGE: West VirginiaAGE: 22HT: 6-2WT: 218POS: QB
Pick analysis: What stands out with Smith is his ball placement -- he can be extremely accurate when he's making the right reads, something he did often in 2012. Arm strength is good, not elite, and you can certainly contend that any good QB might put up good numbers in the system he was in, and with the receivers he had. It's not a great value on my board, but it's a major need pick. Smith's pro day is Thursday, and you can be certain the Cardinals will be present.
Free-agency factor: See any big QBs in free agency that offer any more hope than Smith? The Cardinals have locked up Brian Hoyer as an insurance policy, but I'd be surprised if this or their second-round pick isn't a QB.
8 Jarvis Jones
*Buffalo Bills (6-10)
COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 23HT: 6-2WT: 245POS: OLB
Pick analysis: Want to guarantee an improvement in your pass rush? Here's your safe pick. Jones has been exceptional for two years now against elite competition, and demands help when he comes off the edge. He's not Von Miller in terms of his athleticism, but he has the chance to produce at a slightly lower level, making him a good value at this slot.
Free-agency factor: The Bills spent a lot in free agency last year, and won't be as active this year. Quarterback could come into play at this pick because of the lack of options on the market. But if Arizona takes Smith, I don't like the value here, and they'd be better served finding a QB in Round 2.
9 Barkevious Mingo
*New York Jets (6-10)
COLLEGE: LSUAGE: 22HT: 6-4WT: 242POS: OLB
Pick analysis: It's about time the Jets found an athletic difference-maker on the edge for Rex Ryan. The interior of the defensive line should be a strength with Muhammad Wilkerson and Quinton Coples, but they need edge speed. Mingo is a freak athlete, and could become a star with the right coaching.
Free-agency factor: The Jets are pretty tapped out, and won't be able to find a player of Mingo's caliber on the market. Remember, they also need to figure out the future at QB, but I think they'll look at QBs further down the board.
10 Jonathan Cooper
Tennessee Titans (6-10)
COLLEGE: North CarolinaAGE: 23HT: 6-2WT: 311POS: G
Pick analysis: Adding Cooper just provides an immediate upgrade on the interior of your offensive line. A complete player who gets a great punch and moves really well for his size, he can run block well, pull with ease, move exceptionally well in the screen game and hit moving targets.
Free-agency factor: The Titans are pretty tight against the cap for 2013, so I don't expect free agency to have much impact on the decision they make with this pick.
11 Lane Johnson
San Diego Chargers (7-9)
COLLEGE: OklahomaAGE: 22HT: 6-6WT: 303POS: OT
Pick analysis: A really good player who is only going to get better, Johnson can become the successor to Jared Gaither at left tackle. Injuries along the offensive line have really weakened the offense over the past couple of seasons, and Philip Rivers has taken a step back because of it. Johnson, a former junior college quarterback, is a pretty gifted athlete for his size, and has been a star during the evaluation process going on now.
Free-agency factor: The Chargers could look at tackle in free agency, but they don't have a lot of money, and can't simply cut Gaither and save money because even if they set him loose, he counts against the cap to the tune of $6 million in 2013. They need to use the draft to upgrade at the position.
12 Cordarrelle Patterson
*Miami Dolphins (7-9)
COLLEGE: TennesseeAGE: 21HT: 6-2WT: 216POS: WR
Pick analysis: He needs work as a route-runner, but Patterson is a potential difference-maker in the passing game. He can go up and get it, take the top off defenses and keep safeties deep because of his speed, and he's a big, physical, shifty runner with the ball in his hands.
Free-agency factor: If the Dolphins make a splash move and add a player such as Mike Wallace or Greg Jennings, they could go in another direction at this spot. They certainly could be thinking tackle if Jake Long moves on.
13 Star Lotulelei
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9)
COLLEGE: UtahAGE: 23HT: 6-2WT: 311POS: DT
Pick analysis: This isn't the top need for the Bucs, but assuming everything checks out for Lotulelei on the medical front, he'd be a total steal here and allow Greg Schiano to create depth and make this a potentially dominant run defense going forward.
Free-agency factor: If defensive end Michael Bennett lands elsewhere in free agency, the Bucs will be looking for help at that spot. The pick of Lotulelei here would just be a steal in terms of how the board breaks.
14 Tavon Austin
Carolina Panthers (7-9)
COLLEGE: West VirginiaAGE: 21HT: 5-8WT: 174POS: WR
Pick analysis: Austin can't be used in the same manner as Steve Smith, but he can add another element of explosiveness to a passing attack that could use a player with his exact skills. Smith turns 34 two weeks after the draft, and Cam Newton could use an underneath target with the capability to do some damage after the catch.
Free-agency factor: The Panthers lack the flexibility to add splash in the passing game via free agency, so I don't see the process doing anything to diminish the value Austin could add.
15 Sheldon Richardson
*New Orleans Saints (7-9)
COLLEGE: MissouriAGE: 24HT: 6-2WT: 294POS: DT
Pick analysis: The Saints should draft the best defensive player available, starting up front. Richardson is an active defender who can take on multiple blocks at the point of attack. Left one-on-one, he can penetrate and cause problems in the backfield, but he also moves down the line well and makes a lot of tackles from this position.
Free-agency factor: The Saints need to use the draft to get better on defense, because free agency isn't going to be a good option for them with where they are currently against the cap. Free agency shouldn't change the draft strategy.
16 Kenny Vaccaro
St. Louis Rams (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: TexasAGE: 22HT: 6-0WT: 214POS: S
Pick analysis: With two first-round picks, the Rams can target maximum value ahead of top need, but Vaccaro offers a check in both boxes. Extremely versatile, Vaccaro is sound in coverage, takes great angles and makes very good reads. But he's a physical player who can assist in run support and be effective near the line of scrimmage. Play Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson four times a year, and versatility at safety can't be overstated.
Free-agency factor: I expect the Rams to be shoppers for skill-position help on offense, where they must do more to help Sam Bradford. But again, with two first-round picks, the draft is a form of cheap free agency as well.
17 Tyler Eifert
*Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8)
COLLEGE: Notre DameAGE: 22HT: 6-6WT: 250POS: TE
Pick analysis: Mike Wallace might be exiting, but in Eifert the Steelers add a different kind of matchup headache for defenses. Eifert has the speed to stretch the seam and also develop routes to the edges, and can't be effectively covered by anybody. He's too tall for corners and safeties, too fast for linebackers.
Free-agency factor: The Steelers need to make tough decisions regarding their cap on defense (we've already seen it with James Harrison), so they also could look at a good young pass-rusher here. Safety, D-line and outside linebacker are all positions they could consider.
18 Chance Warmack
Dallas Cowboys (8-8)
COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 6-2WT: 314POS: G
Pick analysis: Sticking with this pick from the previous mock, Warmack is an immediate upgrade on the interior of the offensive line. The ceiling of a Pro Bowl guard, Warmack is an absolute plow in the run game, and has very good instincts as a pass-blocker, picking up stunts and blitzes extremely well.
Free-agency factor: The Cowboys would have to be creative financially to find an offensive lineman with Warmack's talent on the open market, so this isn't a pick I think will shift based on buying season.
19 Manti Te'o
New York Giants (9-7)
COLLEGE: Notre DameAGE: 22HT: 6-1WT: 241POS: LB
Pick analysis: The Giants could use an upgrade at middle linebacker, and Te'o offers a pick-and-play upgrade. Say what you want about his 40 time, when you roll the tape you see a guy that has football speed because he makes reads at a faster rate than so many others.
Free-agency factor: There really isn't a much on the market at this position, and this is a draft slot where the Giants can target a middle linebacker and expect a Week 1 starter.
20 D.J. Fluker
*Chicago Bears (10-6)
COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 21HT: 6-5WT: 339POS: OT
Pick analysis: I also can see wide receiver as a possible fit here, but Fluker is a good fit and a good value on the board. A dominant right tackle, he has arms that work like hydraulics, and what you get is a decent pass-blocker but an absolute mauler in the run game. The Bears don't just need protection, they need more push in the run, and Fluker can provide some.
Free-agency factor: Phil Emery should be willing to write a check if he can add some offensive line help in free agency, and that could play into what the Bears do with this pick. But even if they add a good tackle, I don't think it eliminates the possibility they draft one.
21 Alec Ogletree
*Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
COLLEGE: GeorgiaAGE: 21HT: 6-2WT: 242POS: LB
Pick analysis: Last year the Bengals hit a home run when Marvin Lewis pushed to bring in a linebacker with some very good tape but a few character questions. Vontaze Burfict was a value home run. Ogletree has some of the best tape in this draft, and can be an immediate upgrade over what the Bengals got last year from Rey Maualuga.
Free-agency factor: I can see the Bengals looking at another wide receiver in free agency, and they also may have to replace Andre Smith, so what happens this week and next on the market could certainly shift the direction of this pick.
22 Justin Hunter
*St. Louis Rams (from WAS) (7-8-1)
COLLEGE: TennesseeAGE: 21HT: 6-4WT: 196POS: WR
Pick analysis: Even if the Rams land a wide receiver in free agency, they should be looking for some young talent at the position in the draft. Hunter has size, speed and creates a home run threat on the edge. He's got some wiggle, given his height, and can create separation with his feet outside of simply running away from people. Where Hunter must get better is in the ability to deal with physical defenders; he's not very strong, which could make press coverage a problem at the next level. He's just not a very physical player yet.
Free-agency factor: The Rams could either keep or lose the services of one or both of Brandon Gibson and Danny Amendola. Again, they also could add a pass-catcher, but I think they'll draft one regardless.
23 Keenan Allen
Minnesota Vikings (10-6)
COLLEGE: CaliforniaAGE: 20HT: 6-2WT: 206POS: WR
Pick analysis: The Vikings now very much need a wide receiver after the Harvin trade, and in Allen they get maybe the safest projection on the board at the position. Allen just has a ton of polish, with great hands and an ability not only to create space but also to find it. He works back to the ball and can run after the catch. This kid would have been a star at safety but is still just 20 years old and already plays with veteran chops at wide receiver. Line him up all over.
Free-agency factor: Even if the Vikings go out and get a wide receiver in free agency, I'm not sure they still don't want to add some assurances in the passing game. Think of it this way: If they lose Harvin but get a player like Allen and a good free agent at wide receiver, will you really think the trade was such a hit to their potential? I won't.
24 Menelik Watson
*Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
COLLEGE: Florida St.AGE: 24HT: 6-5WT: 310POS: OT
Pick analysis: Whether he ends up at left tackle, right tackle or even as a potentially dominant guard, Watson has a high ceiling and the Colts have to get better along the offensive line. The franchise has arrived at quarterback -- time to protect him.
Free-agency factor: The Colts could make a run at offensive line help in free agency, which could shift this pick to defense. But if they don't, protecting Andrew Luck has to be a priority.
25 Sylvester Williams
Minnesota Vikings (10-6) (from Seattle)
COLLEGE: North CarolinaAGE: 24HT: 6-3WT: 313POS: DT
Pick analysis: The Vikings are old on the defensive line, both inside and on the edges, and while it's not a major need in terms of what they produced on the line in 2012, it could be one soon. Williams is a mature, powerful player who can contribute immediately.
Free-agency factor: By securing a pass-catcher with their first pick, they can help reduce the age question on the defensive line here. You figure wide receiver will be a bigger focus in free agency than the D-line, so they can take advantage of a deep draft at defensive tackle.
26 Eddie Lacy
*Green Bay Packers (11-5)
COLLEGE: AlabamaAGE: 22HT: 5-11WT: 231POS: RB
Pick analysis: The Packers have lacked a workhorse with any explosiveness at running back, and that's what Lacy offers. Yes, he ran behind a great line, but he's a great combination of power and open-field shiftiness. He's the guy in this class who can run with power but also break off some big runs. He also catches the ball well.
Free-agency factor: You're not going to spend big money for a running back in free agency, and the market doesn't offer much anyway. Even if the Packers add a cheap veteran at running back they could still make this pick.
27 DeAndre Hopkins
*Houston Texans (12-4)
COLLEGE: ClemsonAGE: 20HT: 6-1WT: 214POS: WR
Pick analysis: Andre Johnson is now officially old by the standards of the position, and although effective, he could use some help. In Hopkins, the Texans add a player with strong hands in traffic, big-time explosiveness after the catch and an ability to create space both underneath and over the top because he has great speed and is able to get defenders to bite on fakes. Big-play potential for Houston's offense.
Free-agency factor: The Texans don't have the cap space to be a major player in free agency, so pass-catching help is likely coming via the draft. Here's your fit.
28 Desmond Trufant
Denver Broncos (13-3)
COLLEGE: WashingtonAGE: 22HT: 6-0WT: 190POS: CB
Pick analysis: Champ Bailey may be good when he's 50 at this rate, but the Broncos could still use another corner, and Trufant is an experienced player who can help immediately because he can mirror receivers both on the edges and in the slot. He utilizes great footwork, has underrated ball skills and can turn and run with anybody.
Free-agency factor: The Broncos are built to win now, and can't spend much in free agency at cornerback, where there just isn't much value to be found. I can see them adding a pass-rusher.
29 Xavier Rhodes
*New England Patriots (12-4)
COLLEGE: Florida St.AGE: 22HT: 6-1WT: 210POS: CB
Pick analysis: Aqib Talib probably is headed elsewhere, and corner again becomes a need for the Patriots. Rhodes draws some split opinions, but where he really excels is as a press corner who can exert his physical will on a receiver. He can really mirror guys, and uses his hands well. He's not great against the run, but the Patriots need another guy who can cover, and that's Rhodes.
Free-agency factor: The Patriots have some decisions to make on the offensive line, and they also could be in play for a wide receiver. If they do add a cornerback in free agency they could shift the thinking with this pick. I also think they should add a safety in the draft and there are some good ones available at this slot.
30 Bjoern Werner
*Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
COLLEGE: Florida St.AGE: 22HT: 6-3WT: 266POS: DE
Pick analysis: John Abraham was released, and this pass-rush looks pretty bleak without an addition. Werner's stock has taken a recent hit, but he was extremely productive at Florida State as a pass-rusher and can step into a 4-3 ready to contribute. The key for him will be whether he continues to develop and adds wrinkles to his repertoire because he was late to football. But Atlanta needs a pass-rusher, period.
Free-agency factor: The Falcons don't have a lot of flexibility but could be in the market for a 4-3 defensive end. If they can add one, however, they still might want to draft one. Cornerback is also spot they need to look for value, and if Rhodes doesn't go to New England, he could land here.
31 Datone Jones
San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
COLLEGE: UCLAAGE: 22HT: 6-4WT: 283POS: DE
Pick analysis: Justin Smith will be 34 in September, and the 49ers need to think about who could take over for him long term, and spell him in the interim. Jones can provide an interior pass-rushing presence. He gets a great burst, and knows how to take on blocks, use leverage and find seams.
Free-agency factor: This roster is too loaded for the 49ers to make significant moves in free agency. They also have a boatload of draft picks and could be active in moving around, trying to maximize picks or even moving way up on the board.
32 Matt Elam
*Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
COLLEGE: FloridaAGE: 21HT: 5-10WT: 208POS: S
Pick analysis: We know they need to find a young safety, and Elam would be a great fit. Not a true center fielder, he likes to play near the line of scrimmage and use his instincts to help blow up plays. He covers the slot well, and has pretty good speed to run with all but the fastest wide receivers. Won't be a liability in coverage, and he has good skills as a blitzer, too.
Free-agency factor: The Ravens need to shore up some holes on defense via free agency, so you could see them going with a safety, an interior linebacker or a pass-rusher here depending on what happens over the next couple of weeks.