Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

[Skooby]

11. Iowa State Cyclones
The Cyclones can really score, averaging 85 points per game and shooting over 51 percent from the floor. Monte Morris has proven to be among a handful of the nation's best point guards, averaging 15 points, 7.9 assists (leading the Big 12) and 2 steals per game. Jameel McKay is Iowa State's heart and soul, averaging 15 points, 11.2 rebounds and shooting over 63 percent from the field.

12. Louisville Cardinals
The Cardinals lost their only game against a top-25 opponent, dropping a close one in the Izzone. Louisville is the best offensive rebounding team in the nation, grabbing almost half of its misses, and one of the top 10 defensive teams in the country, forcing a turnover on 23 percent of opponents' possessions.

13. Villanova Wildcats
Oklahoma drilled the Wildcats in Hawaii, but that will happen to a number of quality teams this season. Villanova shoots a great percentage inside the arc, and a poor one outside of it, yet the Wildcats convert about half of their attempts from deep. Villanova is a better shooting team than it has shown early, but needs to get to the free throw line more often.

14. SMU Mustangs
The Ponies are unbeaten without coach Larry Brown on the sidelines, and they have shown tremendous fight. SMU leads the American Athletic Conference in field goal shooting at 53 percent and has dominated the glass, outrebounding opponents by over 14 rebounds per game.

15. Arizona Wildcats
The Cats' win at Gonzaga was a "program" win, and Arizona showed a tremendous amount of grit and toughness to come back in that environment. Gabe York and Ryan Anderson are the best players, but freshmanAllonzo Trier may make that a potent trio.

16. Texas A&M Aggies
The Aggies lead the SEC in assists with 18.8 dimes per game. Alex Caruso, who led the SEC in assists the past two seasons, is sixth in the league in that category and leads the conference in steals.

17. Baylor Bears
The Bears have an absolute star in Taurean Prince, a long-armed, skilled player who can manufacture his own shot. Prince averages 16 points, 6 rebounds and almost 2 steals per game. Baylor is leading the Big 12 in rebounding (plus-14) and assists (21.3).

18. Butler Bulldogs
The Bulldogs are scoring at a ridiculous rate, especially given the reputation of deliberate basketball coming out of Hinkle. Butler is averaging 91.7 PPG while shooting 51 percent from the floor. Kellen Dunhamleads the Big East in scoring, and Kelan Martin is in the top 10.

19. Miami Hurricanes
The Hurricanes lead the ACC in free throw percentage at 78 percent and 3-point percentage at 42 percent, and trail only Louisville and Virginia in field goal percentage at 50 percent. Sheldon McClellan, the fifth-year senior, is averaging better than 16 PPG to lead Miami. But the Hurricanes' top-five offense needs to do a better job guarding the 3-point line.

20. Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats have size and toughness, and continue to defend and rebound at a high level. Mick Cronin has a few more skilled players, and there are more options on the offensive end. Cincinnati's two losses have come against Butler and Xavier, two highly rated Bilas Index teams.

21. Oregon Ducks
The Ducks are banged up. Without Tyler Dorsey and Dylan Ennis, Oregon is down a top starting backcourt. Of course that negatively impacts this team. When fully healthy, this team is as good as any in the Pac-12.

22. UCLA Bruins
The Bilastrator informed you in Volume I of The Bilas Index that, despite the questionable losses, UCLA was continuing to get better. That proved prophetic. Well, everything The Bilastrator says is prophetic. UCLA was excellent against Kentucky and Gonzaga. Bryce Alford is UCLA's best player, but Thomas Welsh is one of the best shooting big men in the nation.

23. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Contrary to popular belief, all is not lost for the Zags, even with a couple of high-profile losses. Gonzaga is still trying to figure out roles and rotations, and it's doing so without injured Przemek Karnowski in the lineup. Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis have been excellent, but the Gonzaga guards have got to take better care of the ball. Gonzaga's defense cannot defend against a turnover. The Zags are turning the ball over on one of five possessions, and their free throw rate is among the lowest in the nation.

24. Wichita State Shockers
With Fred VanVleet back, Wichita State looks like the Shocker team that was expected. Without VanVleet, shot selection was an issue and the free throw line was a mirage the Shockers couldn't find. With him, Wichita State throttled Utah.

25. Iowa Hawkeyes
Jarrod Uthoff is having a terrific senior season, averaging 19.6 points, 6.7 rebounds and shooting better than 50 percent from 3-point range. The loss at Iowa State was painful, but Iowa has quality wins over Wichita State, Florida State and Marquette.

26. West Virginia Mountaineers
The Mountaineers continue to impress with the press, and if you give West Virginia a layup or dunk, the Mountaineers make it. But, West Virginia struggles to shoot the ball, both from deep and from the free throw line. West Virginia leads the nation in turnovers forced, but is 205th in turnovers committed, with some sort of Robin Hood swapping of the ball. Still, this team is good and can beat a lot of people.

27. Vanderbilt Commodores
Vandy is a good offensive team that is precise and has multiple scorers. There are really no weaknesses on this team, except that the Commodores may be too nice. Damian Jones is one of the best big men in the country, but he needs to demand the ball and dominate the post. Wade Baldwin IV is one of the best players in the country and should be talked about that way. Get on that.

28. Syracuse Orange
As good as Syracuse looked in the Battle 4 Atlantis is as shaky as Syracuse looked against St. John's. Still, the Orange can be really good when shots go down. The problem is the back line of the zone and the youth in the middle. Usually, there is an anchor there, but this year there is not.

29. Connecticut Huskies
The Huskies are tough to figure out, and once the pieces fit together in a more coherent fashion, UConn will be really good. Sterling Gibbshas been initiating offense, but he is more of a scoring guard than a point guard.Daniel Hamilton is having an amazing season. Hamilton is averaging 13 points, 8 rebounds and a league-leading 5.2 assists.

30. Texas Longhorns
Shaka Smart has done a masterful job infusing energy and togetherness into the Texas basketball program. How could one not want to play for Smart? He and his staff put in a great game plan against North Carolina, but better than that, the players executed it well. Isaiah Taylor andJavan Felix formed a good, productive backcourt.

 

[Skooby]

31. George Washington Colonials
The Colonials are really good and dominated Rutgers last week. GW mixed defenses, played some 1-3-1 zone and have great experience with talent. Mike Lonergan's team is legit.

32. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame can score and has one of the most efficient offenses in the country. On the defensive end, the Irish are about average among major conference teams. Demetrius Jackson is averaging 18.8 points and 5.1 assists, both ranking in the top 5 of the ACC. The Irish are still proficient from beyond the arc, hitting almost nine 3s per game, third in the ACC.

33. Indiana Hoosiers
There is no way Indiana is in some sort of NCAA tournament danger. The Hoosiers are a potent offensive team that is figuring out how to play with pace while still valuing the ball and valuing defensive possessions. But one leads to the other. Indiana cannot defend against a turnover. Once IU stops turning it over, the defense will improve.

34. South Carolina Gamecocks
The Gamecocks are 8-0, the best start in Columbia since 2004. South Carolina is second in the SEC in rebounding margin at plus-9.1.

35. Utah Utes
The Utes are tough to figure out -- for a mere mortal. But The Bilastrator can tell you that this team scores with greater ease than last year's team but can't guard a bank with an armed guard ... yet. Utah is last in the Pac-12 in field goal percentage defense, and the Utes have been blown out by the two good teams they have played. Jakob Poeltl is averaging 20 points, 10 rebounds and is shooting almost 70 percent from the floor.

36. Providence Friars
The Friars are 10-1, with the only loss to Michigan State. Providence's defense gives up too many easy baskets. But, with Kris Dunn, Rodney Bullock and Ben Bentil, Providence can beat almost anyone. If the defensive discipline improves while PC continues to force turnovers, this could be a second-weekend NCAA tournament team, with the right draw.

37. Dayton Flyers
The loss to Xavier was not a surprise, because Xavier is that good. The loss to Chattanooga was a surprise, though, as is Dayton's turnover percentage and 3-point defense. But this is a tough team that will fight you, and will fight to get better.

38. Florida Gators
Coach Michael White has done a nice job with this team. Florida defends and rebounds at a high level. The Gators' losses are to Purdue, Miami and Michigan State, all Bilas Index stalwarts. Florida does not shoot well, partly because shot selection has been questionable at times.

39. Pittsburgh Panthers
The Panthers haven't really played anybody yet, save the loss to Purdue. The Bilastrator believes Pittsburgh has the chops to get back to the NCAA tournament and can cause some legit matchup problems withMichael Young and Jamel Artis. Until Pitt gets to ACC play, there are no teams on the schedule to really test them.

40. Florida State Seminoles
The Seminoles are young. They are second in the ACC in scoring but last in the league in field goal percentage defense, allowing opponents to shoot better than 50 percent effective field goal percentage. Freshmen Malik Beasley and Dwayne Bacon are both in the top 10 in ACC scoring, averaging 18.6 points and 17.7 points, respectively.

41. Colorado Buffaloes
The Buffs can shoot the ball. Colorado leads the Pac-12 in free throw percentage and 3-point percentage and is third in field goal percentage. Aside from an early loss to Iowa State, Colorado has been solid.

42. Marquette Golden Eagles
With wins over Arizona State, LSU and Wisconsin, Marquette has jumped up in The Bilas Index. There can be no finer compliment or reward. The strength of this team is in the big men, with Henry Ellenson andLuke Fischer leading the way. Ellenson is a young stud, averaging 16 points and nine rebounds. Fischer leads the Big East in offensive rebounds and blocked shots.

43. Richmond Spiders
The Spiders are led by Terry Allen and T.J. Cline, and have wins over Wake Forest, California and Northern Iowa. Like most smaller, proficient offensive teams, Richmond gives up too many easy baskets inside the arc, but make up for it with being able to score.

44. California Golden Bears
Young and talented. That will be the mantra of this team all season long. Freshman big man Ivan Rabb is averaging 12.7 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2 blocks and is shooting 65 percent from the floor.

45. Northwestern Wildcats
Even without Vic Law, the Wildcats have a good team. At 8-1, with the only loss against North Carolina, Northwestern does not yet have a win over a top-100 team. Northwestern has a good backcourt in Bryant McIntosh and Tre Demps.

46. Memphis Tigers
The Tigers are 6-2 with losses against Oklahoma and UT-Arlington (which is a good team). Memphis can defend, but scoring is a problem. The Tigers are in the bottom third in Division I in 3-point shooting. Freshman Dedric Lawson ranks in the American's top three in both scoring and rebounding.

47. UNLV Runnin' Rebels
The Rebels are better this season, especially with freshman Stephen Zimmerman. Plus, they turn opponents over at a high rate. But, UNLV gives up way too many second shots and has just two quality wins: against Indiana in Maui and over Oregon. There is a lot of room for growth, however, and Patrick McCaw has been good so far.

48. Arizona State Sun Devils
With wins over NC State, Creighton and Texas A&M, the Sun Devils have performed well against Bilas Index teams. Arizona State defends well but does not score easily. The Sun Devils are in the bottom third of Division I in 3-point shooting.

49. Georgetown Hoyas
Yes, the Hoyas have dropped some games. But, this team has too much talent to be dismissed. The Big East is brutally difficult at the top, but Georgetown will contend.

50. VCU Rams
Don't be fooled by the overall record. VCU lost games to Duke and Wisconsin in New York, and could have won both. The Rams dropped one to Florida State, a talented and big Power 5 team. VCU is second in the nation in steals percentage and sixth in the country in turnover percentage.Melvin Johnson has already hit 33 3s and is shooting almost 48 percent from deep.

 

[Skooby]

51. Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers are not the team Wisconsin fans have come to know under Bo Ryan. With Ryan stepping into retirement, Greg Gard takes over a team that has some very good pieces, but is not as good as prior Wisconsin teams have been. To have an audition for the full-time gig with a lesser roster will be a challenge. But Gard is an outstanding coaching prospect that will do a great job. Hopefully, he will be allowed sufficient time to do that job.

52. Michigan Wolverines
The Wolverines can really shoot it and rely upon the 3-point shot as much as any team in the country. More than 42 percent of Michigan's points come off of deep balls. The Wolverines need to get tougher on defense and the glass. Keep an eye on Moritz Wagner, an energetic big who plays with vigor.

53. LSU Tigers
Ben Simmons has gone from the biggest deal in the college game to wondering whether he will play in the NCAA tournament. After losses to Marquette, NC State, Charleston and Houston, all away from home and two in overtime, many are questioning coaching, teammates and Simmons' assertiveness. LSU does not defend well nor rebound well, but all is not lost. We are eight games in, and with Simmons, LSU can turn things around if its guards people.

54. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
The Golden Hurricane have lost to South Carolina, Arkansas-Little Rock and Oral Roberts, all solid teams. Tulsa is good on the defensive end but needs to do a better job guarding the perimeter. James Woodard, whose brother Jordan is killing it at Oklahoma, is killing it for Frank Haith, leading the team in three-point shooting with 28 treys.

55. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Charles Mitchell started the season with eight straight double-doubles, something that no Georgia Tech player has ever done before. There have been some pretty amazing players at Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have been one of the best rebounding teams in the country, outrebounding opponents by 12.6 per game. They also rank No. 1 in the ACC in offensive rebounding.

56. USC Trojans
For the first time in a long while, USC is making a return appearance to The Bilas Index. The Trojans took beatings at the hands of Xavier and Monmouth but have also beaten Wichita State and New Mexico. Bennie Boatwright and Jordan McLaughlin have been bright spots, averaging 12.6 points and 13.2 points, respectively.

57. Monmouth Hawks
Monmouth has a great guard in Justin Robinson. The Hawks have wins over UCLA, USC, Notre Dame and Georgetown. The Hawks, though, have rebounding issues.

58. Boise State Broncos
Nick Duncan is one of the best shooting big men in the country, and well over half of the Aussie's field goals are 3-pointers. As the Broncos' defense improves, so will the results.

59. Valparaiso Crusaders
The Crusaders are good. Valpo has beaten Oregon State, Rhode Island and Belmont, and are an excellent defensive team. Still, despite the love from The Bilas Index, it will be difficult for Valpo to earn an at-large NCAA tournament bid should the Crusaders lose in the Horizon League Tournament.

60. San Diego State Aztecs
The Aztecs continue to defend like maniacs with their hair on fire ... but offensively, it isn't pretty. San Diego State turns it over far too much, and getting good shots has proven an inconsistent endeavor. It is simply too difficult to get that many consecutive stops.

61. Creighton Bluejays
The Bluejays can really score, and they cut up Nebraska offensively. The only real blemish on the record is a blowout loss to Indiana. In the Big East, there are opportunities, especially against Butler and Xavier at home.

62. Seton Hall Pirates
Isaiah Whitehead, Khadeen Carrington and Angel Delgado are a potent trio. Seton Hall has lost to Long Beach State and George Washington but have performed well in wins against Ole Miss and Georgia.

63. New Mexico Lobos
The Lobos have lost only to Purdue and USC, with wins over Northern Iowa and New Mexico State. Cullen Neal and Elijah Brown (MWC player of the week) are the offensive engine that propels New Mexico.

64. Rhode Island Rams
That Rhody remains in The Bilas Index after losing E.C. Matthews for the season is remarkable. The Rams defend well under Danny Hurley. With Danny and Bobby (coach at Arizona State), the Hurleys are the second brother combo to grace The Bilas Index in the same week. The first was Sean Miller (Arizona) and Archie Miller (Dayton), and that honor is their proudest and most cherished.

65. Oregon State Beavers
The Beavers are greatly improved, and Gary Payton II and Tres Tinkleare fine players. To take the next step, Oregon State has to take better care of the ball (a turnover percentage of 19.7 is tough to overcome) and do a better job on the defensive glass.

66. Northern Iowa Panthers
The Panthers have dropped games against Colorado State, and road games at Richmond and New Mexico. Still, Wes Washpun, Matt Bohannon and Paul Jesperson are seniors who know how to play, and Northern Iowa is the one team that can dethrone Wichita State in the MVC.

67. Davidson Wildcats
Davidson is 7-1 with the only loss at North Carolina. The Wildcats never turn it over and have a point guard who can play anywhere inJack Gibbs. He's averaging 25 points for coach Bob McKillop.

68. Saint Mary's Gaels
The Gaels can really shoot it, leading the nation in 3-point field goal accuracy at 50.3 percent. Saint Mary's also leads the nation in effective field goal percentage at 64.6 percent. That is ridiculous.

 

[bigrodthe1]

Ford: Simmons, Ingram lead draft Big Board 3.0
Thanks in advance Skoob

 

[Skooby]

Ford: Simmons, Ingram lead draft Big Board 3.0
Thanks in advance Skoob

Ben Simmons atop Big Board 3.0; Ingram, Ellenson rising

The college basketball season is now a month old, which means it's time for our first Big Board update since the season began.

While scouts are still preaching patience, especially with freshmen, stronger opinions are forming on top prospects. Once we begin conference play in January, they'll get even sharper.

This is a more detailed look at the top 30 players in our Top 100. It tracks player movement and stock fluctuation, and gives you the latest intel from NBA scouts.

So here it is: Big Board 3.0.

1. Ben Simmons

Previous rank: No. 1
LSU
Freshman
Forward

Simmons is the prize of this draft. There really isn't a close second right now. His combination of size, athleticism, court vision and rebounding prowess is unique, and he's ultra productive, ranking No. 7 in the country in player efficiency rating.

Yes, his jump shot is a source of concern; he's made just 13 shots away from the rim all season and is shooting just 28.6 percent from there, according to hoop-math.com. But given all the other skills he brings to the table and a solid free throw percentage, scouts don't think it will keep him from being a star.

Simmons video

2. Brandon Ingram

Previous rank: No. 4
Duke
Freshman
Forward

Ingram bounced back from a slow start to the season in early December with a 24-point explosion against Indiana, followed by a 23-point game against Buffalo and a 26-point effort against Georgia Southern. During that three-game stretch he shot 8-for-14 from 3 and 27-for-43 (63 percent) inside the arc.

Obviously, that's a pretty small sample size; two of the three opponents were mid-majors and Indiana is a pathetic defensive team. Still, scouts get excited whenever you talk about a long, 6-10 small forward with athleticism who can shoot. Ingram needs to get stronger and continue to work on his defense, but the tools are there for him to be a star if he can keep it up.



Ingram video

3. Dragan Bender

Previous rank: No. 3
Croatia
Age: 18
Forward/center

After impressing scouts in September with exhibitions in Chicago and Brooklyn, things have quieted down for Bender. In nine Israeli league games, he is averaging just 3.6 PPG and 2.0 RPG in 11 MPG for Maccabi Tel Aviv. In Euroleague play, that number drops to 2.1 PPG and 1.4 RPG in 10 MPG.

Scouts were hoping to see him play a much bigger role. I don't think lack of playing time has hurt his stock at all, but it has kept him from climbing up a board that's wide open after Simmons.

4. Skal Labissiere

Previous rank: No. 2
Kentucky
Freshman
Center/forward

Scouts are preaching patience with Labissiere ... but it's hard to be patient. He dropped a zero-point, zero-rebound game in a win against Arizona State on Saturday and was a complete nonfactor on both ends of the floor. His lack of strength has hurt him to the point where there's been only one game in which which he's grabbed more than five rebounds. But there's still reason to have hope.

Head coach John Calipari is trying to toughen up Labissiere by asking him to play in the post. He's much more comfortable on the perimeter, though (he's shooting 47.6 percent from there and 63 percent of all his shots have been jumpers), and projects as a potential stretch-4 in the NBA. We haven't seen his 3-point shot, but he has one. However, if this keeps up through the entire season, his stock could plummet. He turns 20 in March. That's old for a player with such little production.

5. Jaylen Brown

Previous rank: No. 5
Cal
Freshman
Forward

Brown continues to look the part athletically, but the production has been shaky so far. He's playing out of position at power forward, which explains some of the problem, but it's his shot that has scouts wringing their hands.

He's shooting just 15 percent on his 2-point jumpers this season and just 25 percent from 3.

6. Henry Ellenson

Previous rank: No. 7
Marquette
Freshman
Forward/center

Scouts continue to warm on Ellenson to the point that he might be a hot month away from surpassing both Brown and Labissiere on our board.

He is big and mobile, rebounds and can really shoot the basketball. His 3-point shot hasn't really been falling, but he's shooting a red-hot 51 percent on 2-point jumpers. He's the prototypical stretch-4 in the new NBA.

7. Jakob Poeltl

Previous rank: No. 12
Utah
Sophomore
Center

It looks like Poeltl made a great decision to go back to Utah for his sophomore season. He got stronger over the summer and it's paid off big time on the court. He's averaging 20 PPG and 10 RPG on 70 percent shooting from the field, adding in 2.2 blocks per game -- and he leads the NCAA in PER at 39.1.

While the league doesn't obsess over big men the way it once did, Poeltl has a lot of fans in the NBA ranks at the moment.

8. Jamal Murray

Previous rank: No. 6
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

A little bit of that shine Murray picked up over the Nike Hoop Summit and FIBA Americas tournament seems to be wearing off. He is the Wildcats' leading scorer, but turnovers and poor shooting have haunted him. And there's still a raging debate among scouts about whether he's a 1 or a 2.

Still, Murray's talent keeps him strongly in the top 10.

Murray video

9. Kris Dunn

Previous rank: No. 13
Providence
Junior
Guard

Most of the scouts I've spoken with love Dunn, and there are plenty of reasons why. He's an athletic assist machine averaging a whopping 3.4 steals per game. But he's actually regressed in a key area this season: His 3-point shooting is down to just 23 percent.

Scouts want to see major improvement going forward, and with just a couple months before he turns 22, I'm not sure Dunn's got much of a ceiling left.

10. Furkan Korkmaz

Previous rank: No. 11
Turkey
Age: 18
Forward

Korkmaz's minutes off the bench have been slipping. He's averaging just 2.6 PPG in nine MPG for Anadoulu Efes Istanbul in the Euroleague. His numbers jump up to 6.9 PPG in the Turkish league. Nothing to wow you, with the exception of his 48 percent shooting from deep.

Without a lot of elite 2-guards in the draft, Korkmaz's value should continue to hold steady, even if his playing situation doesn't improve.

 

[Skooby]

11. Ivan Rabb

Previous rank: No. 19
Cal
Freshman
Forward/center

After the top 10 are off the board, the draft drops off pretty rapidly in terms of talent. Scouts were skeptical that Rabb would be so productive so quickly, but his early returns are encouraging. He's shooting nearly 80 percent in the paint and a very impressive 50 percent on his 2-point jumpers. His rebounding rate is just a little less than Poeltl's and he's been a terrific shot-blocker early.

Teams covet mobile bigs who can defend the rim and stretch the defense, and Rabb shows early signs he can do a little of both. Scouts hope he follows Poeltl's lead and stays for another year to add strength, but if he does declare, he's looking more and more like a legitimate lottery pick.

12. Demetrius Jackson

Previous rank: No. 18
Notre Dame
Junior
Guard

While most of the early point guard discussion has centered on Murray versus Dunn, don't count out Jackson, who is having a terrific junior season. His ability to shoot at a high percentage from anywhere on the floor and some major toughness are his biggest selling points.

13. Cheick Diallo

Previous rank: No. 9
Kansas
Freshman
Forward/center

The NCAA finally gave Diallo the green light. Bill Self? Not so much.

In KU's two games that were close, Diallo played just seven minutes in each. The energy is there, but his offensive awareness is still a work in progress. Teams love his long-term potential, but right now he looks pretty far away from contributing in the NBA.

14. Caris LeVert

Previous rank: No. 23
Michigan
Senior
Guard/forward

With the exception of one horrific 1-for-13 shooting performance against SMU, LeVert has been terrific for Michigan. He is shooting the ball well, has three games with seven or more assists and has been relentless getting to the line. Seniors typically struggle to crack the lottery, but remember, LeVert is a year younger than most of the players in his class.

15. Timothe Luwawu

Previous rank: No. 28
France
Age: 20
Guard/forward

Luwawu is currently the starting small forward for Mega Vizura in the Adriatic League. He's averaging 15 PPG and 4.4 RPG and shooting 37.6 percent from 3. His defense is ahead of his offense, but if his shots keep falling, he's got a chance to crack the lottery.

16. Thomas Bryant

Previous rank: No. 16
Indiana
Freshman
Center

Bryant struggled at the Maui Invitational, and the general consensus was he was still too raw on both ends of the ball to seriously consider jumping to the NBA. However, given the dearth of top-end talent this late in the draft -- along with Bryant's scintillating 72-percent field goal percentage (nearly 90 percent of shots are at the rim) -- someone will take him on as a project and give him time to grow.

17. Jonathan Jeanne
Previous rank: N/A
France
Age: 18
Center/forward

I wrote about Jeanne in the last mock draft and the response from NBA scouts was telling -- the cat is now out of the bag. He's the young European that virtually every team hopes will slide to them. He's super thin, but his size and versatility are both coveted in the league right now. Given the lack of depth in this draft, he is a project that teams could gamble on early.

18. Wade Baldwin IV

Previous rank: No. 29
Vanderbilt
Sophomore
Guard

Baldwin continues to lure scouts with his scoring ability and court vision. He's shooting 50 percent from 3 and 61 percent at the rim, but his midrange game is still a major work in progress. Baldwin doesn't particularly wow, but he's one of the most stable point guards on the board.

19. Stephen Zimmerman

Previous rank: No. 17
UNLV
Freshman
Center

Zimmerman is selling himself as a mobile big who can face the basket and protect the rim. He's been a solid shot-blocker for UNLV, but his back-to-the-basket game still needs work and teams question his toughness right now.

20. Damian Jones

Previous rank: No. 14
Vanderbilt
Junior
Center/forward

Jones hasn't taken the big leap scouts thought he'd take this season. He's roughly the same player he was last season. His size and athleticism continue to make him an intriguing prospect, though scouts seem to be lowering their expectations on what he could be in the NBA.

21. Diamond Stone

Previous rank: No. 15
Maryland
Freshman
Center

Ten years ago, Stone probably would rank 10 spots higher on this list. He's an old-school center with a knack for scoring with his back to the basket and he's off to a very solid start for Maryland. However, with the new emphasis on bigs that stretch and protect, he's not quite as valuable.

22. Grayson Allen

Previous rank: No. 22
Duke
Sophomore
Guard

Allen has been a dominant scorer for Duke and a lights-out shooter from 3 this season. However, his one bad game against Kentucky highlighted the major concerns. He's undersized to play the 2 at the next level and his decision-making as a point guard leaves a lot to be desired. If he were two inches taller, his stock would be much higher.

23. Denzel Valentine

Previous rank: N/A
Michigan State
Senior
Forward/guard

Valentine doesn't check the normal boxes scouts are typically looking for in a wing. He lacks elite size and athleticism for the position. However, he's been a triple-double threat for the Spartans all season, and given the NBA's recent emphasis on versatility, he's drawing significant interest from scouts.

24. Zhou Qi

Previous rank: No. 21
China
Age: 19
Center

Zhou is our fifth international prospect. It's his elite size and versatile skill set that have NBA teams intrigued.

He's averaging 18.8 PPG, 10.2 RPG and 4.2 BPG while shooting 68 percent from the floor for Xinjiang this season. He's even 4-for-6 from 3 this season. He just needs to add a lot of strength to handle the rigors of the paint in the NBA.

25. Isaiah Briscoe

Previous rank: No. 25
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

Briscoe has been a strong defender for Kentucky and aggressive getting to the basket. With Tyler Ulis out, he's shown signs of being able to handle the point guard spot. But his poor shooting, both from 3 and the foul line (39 percent!), gives scouts pause.

26. Malik Newman

Previous rank: No. 10
Mississippi State
Freshman
Guard

Newman is off to a disappointing start for Mississippi State. Billed as a hybrid point guard with elite scoring ability coming out of high school, he's struggled to hit shots and run Mississippi State's offense so far. His numbers don't really warrant his being this high, but teams still are intrigued with his talent if he figures things out.

27. Domantas Sabonis

Previous rank: No. 26
Gonzaga
Sophomore
Forward

Sabonis continues to dominate the paint as both a rebounder and a low-post scorer. But his lack of elite athleticism and 3-point shot make him a bit of a dinosaur when it comes to the modern NBA power forward.

28. Carlton Bragg

Previous rank: No. 27
Kansas
Freshman
Forward

Bragg is playing just 12 minutes a night for the Jayhawks, but every time he steps onto the court, good things happen. He most likely will spend at least one more year in Lawrence, but NBA teams love versatile forwards like Bragg who thrive both inside and outside the paint.

29. Buddy Hield

Previous rank: N/A
Oklahoma
Senior
Guard

Hield has been on the NBA radar for a while, but scouts always have been concerned about his inconsistency. As a senior he's putting it all together, shooting 50 percent from 3, getting to the line six times a game (shooting 90 percent from the stripe) and scoring a career-high 22.7 PPG.

He's undersized for his position, but scouts love his moxie.

30. Isaac Haas

Previous rank: N/A
Purdue
Sophomore
Center

Haas has been incredibly efficient both as a low-post scorer (73 percent shooting at the rim) and facing the basket (57 percent shooting on 2-point jumpers). He's not an elite athlete, but at 7-2, 297 lbs. he doesn't have to be. Plus, he ranks second among all college players in PER.

Next five in
Melo Trimble, PG, So., Maryland; Marquese Chriss, F, Fr., Washington;Chinanu Onuaku, F/C, So., Louisville; Dwayne Bacon, F, Fr., Florida State;Malik Beasley, SG, Fr., Florida State

 

[954UAlreadyknow]

Pelton: Is Klay really the best shooting guard?

 

[TYBG]

Fantasy basketball cheat sheet: Kyrie returns

 

[Skooby]

Pelton: Is Klay really the best shooting guard?

Is Klay Thompson really the best shooting guard in the NBA?

Asked recently to choose the NBA's best player at each position, Klay Thompsonof the Golden State Warriors went with a biased choice at shooting guard.

"I'm going to go with myself," Thompson told the Bay Area News Group. "We're 26-1."

Looking at metrics more advanced than Golden State's record makes it more difficult to justify picking Thompson as the NBA's best shooting guard.

So, who merits the honor instead?

Klay's advantage: playing with Stephen Curry
Before choosing himself at shooting guard, Thompson also made the less controversial choice that backcourt-mate Stephen Curry is the NBA's top point guard. Thompson should know. Perhaps no player has benefited more from Curry's playmaking and unparalleled gravity than Thompson.

Consider this: When playing with Curry this season, Thompson has averaged 22.9 points per 36 minutes and shot 45.2 percent from 3-point range, according to research by NBA.com/Stats. In the 86 minutes he has played with Curry on the bench, Thompson has averaged 13.4 points per 36 minutes and shot an even 30 percent from the field (29.4 percent from 3-point range). The Warriors have been outscored by 11.5 points per 100 possessions in that span. (They're plus-23.6 with both Curry and Thompson on the court.)

Naturally, 86 minutes isn't a particularly meaningful sample size. However, Thompson was also far more efficient when playing with Curry last season, if not as dramatically so.

Bill Duffy told the USA Today that Thompson was "the top two-way, 2-guard in basketball."

In truth, the best two-way player should be redundant -- the best two-way player is simply the best player. In practice, though, the term appears to mean the player whose weaker skill, offense or defense, is the best. And though Thompson can lay claim to that title among shooting guards, Jimmy Butler of the Chicago Bulls has the stronger case.

Offensively, Butler is the better shot creator. Although the two players have similar usage rates -- both about 24 percent of their teams' plays -- nearly 80 percent of Thompson's field goals are assisted (many of them by Curry). Meanwhile, Butler has been assisted just 55.6 percent of the time, according to research by Basketball-Reference.com.

At the other end, Butler is the top wing defender for a Chicago team that ranks second in defensive rating, just ahead of the Warriors (fourth). Unlike Thompson, who can cede more difficult assignments to teammates Harrison Barnes, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston, Butler has no such luxury. He's also a bigger factor in the passing lanes, averaging 1.7 steals per 36 minutes as compared to Thompson's 0.6.

As a result, ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) rates Butler as the NBA's second-best defender at shooting guard, behind only Brooklyn Nets rookie Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Thompson has actually rated below average defensively each of the past two seasons, throwing a wrench in his two-way case.

James Harden[/paste:font]
The problem with the "best two-way player" discussion is that it tends to imply that both ends of the court are of equal importance. Though generally true at the team level, that doesn't appear to be the case for players. Because offenses get to pick where to attack, and because of the importance of defensive scheme, individuals can have more impact on offense than defense.

James Harden's 2015-16 season is a good example. After improving his defensive effort last year, when he led the Houston Rockets to the Western Conference finals, Harden has taken a significant step backward this season.RPM rates him just outside the bottom 10 among shooting guards defensively, more than two points per 100 possessions worse than an average player.

However, Harden's offense has more than made up for his pitiful defensive effort. RPM estimates Harden's offensive impact at more than seven points per 100 possessions better than an average player. Despite a slow start from beyond the arc, Harden has scored more efficiently than Butler while finishing nearly a third of Houston's plays with a shot, a trip to the free throw line or a turnover. An even 70 percent of his shot attempts have been unassisted. And Harden is a far better playmaker, handing out more assists per 36 minutes (6.4) than Butler (3.1) and Thompson (2.8) combined.

Then there's the matter of playing time. On a deep Golden State team, Thompson averages 31.7 minutes per game. Butler is averaging 37.5 a night and Harden a league-leading 38.3 minutes -- down from the nearly 40 he was playing before requesting less playing time.

As a result, value statistics -- including RPM, along with Basketball-Reference.com's win shares and box plus-minus -- put Harden atop shooting guard rankings and among the league's top-10 players. Frustrating as Harden's play has been at times this season, there's a reason a pair of Rockets coaches have kept him on the floor for heavy minutes: His offense is worth dealing with his indifferent defense.

Thompson hasn't reached that level. So sorry, Klay. While you're still part of the league's best backcourt, you're not the NBA's best shooting guard.

 

[Skooby]

Fantasy basketball cheat sheet: Kyrie returns

Fantasy basketball cheat sheet: Best trades, adds and drops

The 2015-16 NBA season, now past its quarter-point, has given basketball fans a multitude of intriguing storylines thus far. Stephen Curry, the likely back-to-back MVP, propelled the Golden State Warriors to the best start in league history. The Philadelphia 76ers' plan to lose as much as possible is working, as expected. And you can't look past what former All-Stars Kevin Durant and Paul George are doing following serious injuries.

Articles analyzing these topics and more are all over ESPN.com. But there's not one handy file published each week to provide fantasy players the information needed to win leagues.

That's where the Insider Cheat Sheet comes in.

Every Sunday throughout the season we'll provide a rundown of the most crucial bits of intel. You'll gain guidance from some of the biggest names in the game -- Amin Elhassan, Tom Haberstroh, Kevin Pelton, David Thorpe, Bradford Doolittle, among others -- to take your fantasy teams to the next level.

Here's what our experts are saying about the week ahead.





Consider benching or moving Derrick Rose


The Chicago Bulls face a critical decision of what to do with the former MVP, as Derrick Rose continues to struggle getting back to the elite playmaking guard he once was. According to Bradford Doolittle, Rose ranks as the worst veteran starter in the league based on Real Plus-Minus. He's shooting just 36.7 percent from the field (23.4 percent on 3-pointers) and has seen his stats across the board go down.

At age 27 he should be hitting his peak, not decline. The Bulls could look to deal Rose while he still has value, and you should consider the same.

"He might improve, but there is a huge chasm for Rose between getting better and returning to greatness," Doolittle wrote. "Once a player slips this far, he rarely, perhaps never, climbs back to his peak level."

Rose is currently owned in 94.2 percent of fantasy leagues, far too high for a player with below-average statistics. Based on ESPN's Player Rater, there are currently 55 guards who would be a better fit in lineups. He offers little in terms of rebounds, steals, blocks, 3-pointers and field goal percentage. Look to trade him to a competitor who either a) sees long-term improvement ahead once back to 100 percent health or b) is still clinging to Rose's glory days of the past. One of the Lakers' young guards -- D'Angelo Russell or Jordan Clarkson -- could be good long-term plays.




Andrew Wiggins' long-term fantasy potential


One of the more polarizing NBA players this season has been second-year wing Andrew Wiggins. Last year's Rookie of Year is a phenomenal scorer (20.8 points per game) who possesses elite athleticism. He's crucial in fantasy due to his high court time (35 MPG) and usage rate (26.3, No. 23 in the league). But aside from his scoring, what else are you getting? Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton tried to answer that this week. "I was a huge Wiggins fan before last year's draft and, in certain ways, Wiggins has exceeded my early expectations," Ford said. "I thought he'd take a couple of years to get really going, but one month into his sophomore season Wiggins is averaging 20.6 PPG and ranks in the top 20 in the NBA in scoring.

"Dig a little deeper and the results don't look nearly as encouraging. Wiggins is an elite athlete and he's finding ways to score. But he's not very efficient, his 3-point shot has regressed this year, he's not nearly as effective on the defensive end as we thought he'd be and overall he looks a bit one-dimensional."

Wiggins, owned in 97.2 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues, can surely put the ball in the basket. However, other areas to bolster lineups are lacking. He averages only 0.7 3-pointers, 0.6 steals, 0.7 blocks and 3.6 rebounds a contest, poor numbers for someone playing that much. Defensively he's not producing like many initially expected.

"So far this season, Wiggins is grabbing 6.6 percent of available defensive rebounds -- the 10th-worst mark among players with at least 250 minutes -- and averaging just 0.7 steals per 36 minutes," Pelton says. "That's even fewer than guys like Nik Stauskas and J.R. Smith."

Look into the possibility of moving Wiggins for another young talent that produces more across the board, not just in the PPG category. The MVP-type potential is there long-term, but just not right now.





Keep an eye on potential NBA trades


We're now at the point of the season where teams can trade players acquired or signed this past summer. Though no major deals have been made as of yet, it's important in fantasy to keep an eye on potential shakeups.

If a star on a bad team is traded to a contender, you may see his overall production and usage numbers dip slightly based on the talent around him. A good example of this is LaMarcus Aldridge moving from Portland to San Antonio. Vice versa, if a player on a contender heads to a team needing to fill a scoring void, he could see an uptick in minutes and shot attempts.

A player could also leave a bad situation for a stronger fit, thus increasing his attractiveness to fantasy owners. A change of scenery may be exactly what someone needs.

Which star players could be traded? Amin Elhassan, Bradford Doolittle, David Thorpe, Tom Haberstroh and Chad Ford gave their answers. Here are a few of the more intriguing possibilities.

Thorpe: "I could see Dwight Howard (for Ryan Anderson and Omer Asik?) being the guy they deal. No chance they move Harden, and with the future looking so bright for Clint Capela, it won't mean Houston is quitting on this season. Anderson fits with the Rockets beautifully as a starter. Howard next to Anthony Davis is a nice thought too."

Kevin Pelton also looked into this possibility.

Haberstroh: "With Jerry Colangelo in town looking to shake things up, don't be surprised if Jahlil Okafor (or anyone, for that matter) gets moved. With an ill-fitting frontcourt and pressure from above, this is a recipe for trade fireworks."

Ford: "Carmelo Anthony. He has a no-trade clause and loves playing in New York, making a trade difficult. But he and Kristaps Porzingis are on different career timetables, and the Knicks need to think about the future. Turning Anthony into young players or draft picks would allow them to really rebuild."








What Kyrie Irving's return means
Elite point guard Kyrie Irving, who fractured his left patella during the 2015 NBA Finals, is finally healthy and set to return to the Cavaliers. The Duke product is one of the most valuable backcourt players in fantasy for his ability to produce strong numbers in a variety of categories. But can we expect him to immediately be what he once was? Stephania Bell gave her prognosis.
"Patience is the name of the game when Irving does make his return -- for him, the Cavs and fantasy owners alike," Bell says. "He'll likely start with limited minutes and his play may take a while to warm up, all of which should be expected coming off a major injury. But once Irving's game starts to reflect a restored confidence in his left leg, there's no reason he can't resume his All-Star status. In fact, a healthier Irving might mean a more efficient Irving, one who potentially appears more frequently (as in more games), even if his minutes played per game decreases slightly.

"The best Kyrie Irving may be yet to come."

And while many fantasy owners are curious about Irving's potential, others have questions about what it means for his teammates. Joe Kaiser investigated this week by speaking with Insider Kevin Pelton, who feels Kevin Love could see his production decline. Love, currently ESPN's No. 32 overall player, averaged 16.6 points per 36 minutes last season when playing with Irving and 20.6 points without him. It's fairly straightforward: he won't have the same usage rate with the talented guard back in the lineup.

It might be enough to justify trading him while he's hot.

"Now is a great time to see what you can get for the versatile power forward," Joe Kaiser says. "As strong as his numbers are, chances are high they'll fall once Irving is back in the fold."

 

[TrillCauleyStein]

The NBA's 13 most surprising players so far

skooby

 

[Skooby]

The NBA's 13 most surprising players so far

skooby

The 13 players who have surprised us most

A handful of NBA teams already are celebrating the arrival of an unexpected gift this holiday season: players on the roster who've performed far above all reasonable expectations in the early going.

Some are guys who've finally "made the leap" from good to great. Others are in the midst of an unexpectedly strong comeback. And then there are the (formerly) bad players now finding ways to make surprisingly positive contributions.

Let's look at the particularly pleasant surprises so far this season.

Good to great

Rolling in Detroit: Drummond and Jackson

Stan Van Gundy has the Pistons rolling toward their first winning season in eight years, and at times, it looks as if 22-year-old Andre Drummond is channeling a young Dwight Howard.

For starters, Drummond leads the league in total rebounds (458), and it's not even close: DeAndre Jordan is second with "only" 371. No player since Kevin Love in 2010-11 has come anywhere near Drummond's Wilt-like 16.4 rebounds-per-game average.

Drummond is no one-dimensional beast, either. He boasts a ridiculous two steals per game, easily the most among all NBA centers. And he has turned into a surprisingly adept finisher in the pick-and-roll, converting an impressive 65.4 percent of his attempts as the roll man this season.

Real plus-minus (RPM) was developed by Jeremias Engelmann, formerly of the Phoenix Suns, in consultation with Steve Ilardi, University of Kansas psychology professor and former NBA consultant.

It follows the development of adjusted plus-minus (APM) by several analysts and regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) by Joe Sill.

RPM reflects enhancements to RAPM by Engelmann, among them the use of Bayesian priors, aging curves, score of the game and extensive out-of-sample testing to improve RPM's predictive accuracy.

Drummond has even catapulted into elite real plus-minus (RPM) territory this season. His 4.2 RPM now places him in the NBA's top 20, and it represents a dramatic improvement over last year's solid 1.3.

Another Piston -- Drummond's pick-and-roll partner, Reggie Jackson -- has joined James Harden as members of an exclusive (but growing) club: players who've left OKC to blossom into prolific scorers. Jackson's 20.5 points per game this season are by far the most of his career.

But Jackson's not simply taking more shots. He's also posting the best true shooting percentage of his career (53.7). And while his assist numbers (6.5 per game) are a bit down from the end of last season in Detroit, they still surpass his dime rate in OKC on a per-possession basis.

Thanks to the improved play of Drummond and Jackson, the otherwise mediocre Pistons have become genuine playoff contenders this year. In fact, they outscore their opponents by 7.0 points per 100 possessions when those two are together on the court.

Golden opportunity for Ezeli

Festus Ezeli logged just 504 minutes over the past two seasons combined. But upon stepping in last month for the Warriors' Andrew Bogut, Ezeli emerged as a starting-caliber center.

Actually, he has been better than that. His stellar RPM of 3.66 ranks 22nd on the NBA leaderboard.

Much of Ezeli's impact comes as a rim protector, where he's holding opponents to a paltry 43.4 percent on shots near the basket (per NBA.com), the eighth-best mark among NBA bigs. He also blocks more than three shots per 48 minutes on the court.

The real surprise, though, has been Ezeli's positive impact on the other end, as shown by his 1.05 offensive RPM. Ezeli has played well with the Warriors' talented crew, putting up a lofty 57.3 true shooting percentage and an impressive 15.3 percent offensive rebound rate that ranks third in the league.

Isaiah living up to his namesake

Isaiah Thomas, Boston's 5-foot-9 point guard dynamo, has long been regarded as a mere role player -- a pint-sized sparkplug off the bench.

This season, Thomas has proven he's actually a quality starter, and an absolute steal for Boston in last season's trade-deadline swap with Phoenix.

Not only does the diminutive guard boast the seventh-best offensive RPM (5.46) in the league, but he now ranks among the NBA's top scorers at 21.0 PPG. And despite Thomas' high usage rate (28.7), he has posted a sterling 55.8 true shooting percentage while compiling one of the lowest turnover rates (9.1) among the league's ball handlers.

Lowry leading the charge in Toronto

The Raptors are tied for second in the Eastern Conference standings, and that's in large part due to the improved play of Kyle Lowry, who is posting career bests all over. Compared to last season, he increased his averages in scoring (by more than three point per game), steals (with almost a full steal per game more) and blocks (tripling his blocks per game). Oh, and he's also taking and making 3s at a rate never seen before in his career.

His production is so good (9.4 RPM, 4.2 last season) that he would be a major MVP candidate if not for the Warriors' historic start and the otherworldlyStephen Curry.

Replacing DeAndre in Dallas

"He's a lot better than I thought," were Mavericks coach Rick Carlisle's recent words on his new center, Zaza Pachulia.

Pachulia's citation on this list comes a year too late, truth be told. His performance isn't a surprise among those who saw his unexpected rise in RPM last season, up to 4.80, which was 16th-best in the league. Pachulia played an enormous role in Milwaukee's playoff season, only to see the Bucks trade him to Dallas in July for a future second-round pick and subsequently hit the skids back into lottery land.

After the Mavs failed to reel in DeAndre Jordan, they needed a replacement. Pachulia fills the void, but in vastly different ways: by setting great screens and doing all the little things, leading to a decreased but still good RPM impact of 2.8. It also helps that he has turned into the seventh-best rebounder in the league.

Roy Hibbert to the Lakers, it has been up to Ian Mahinmi to help Indiana hold down the middle. Formerly just a backup, Mahinmi has quietly become a legitimate NBA starting center.

He might not score a lot, but he's above average for centers in most other categories. For example, he's sixth among centers in steals per 36 minutes and seventh-best in turnovers per 36. That has been enough to help him post a strong RPM of 2.86.

Capela a cause for optimism in Houston

Few things in Houston are going as planned, but at least Clint Capela has taken the next step. The second-year player -- one of just seven in the league shooting better than 60 percent from the field -- has raised his RPM from minus-1.8 to 2.3 while ranking in the top 15 in rebounding on a per-minute basis. He's posting a high steal rate as well.

In fact, when we compare his production to that of teammate Dwight Howard, Capela is close to the former superman in scoring, rebounds and assists per 36 minutes while holding a sizable lead in steals and turnover rate. Oh, he's also blocking more shots more frequently than the three-time defensive player of the year.

LaVine turning the corner quickly

Last season as a rookie, Minnesota guard Zach LaVine posted some of the most disastrous plus-minus numbers of any player in the league. The Timberwolves were outscored by 15 points per 100 possessions when he played, but only by five when he sat, leading to an RPM of minus-6.5, the third-worst mark in the league.

This season, his plus-minus has vastly improved. He is making shots at a slightly better clip (53 true shooting percentage) while taking more shots and he's turning the ball over less, leading to a much improved RPM of minus-1.9.

Perhaps it's a stretch to say that LaVine is now "good," but in terms of "RPM Wins" (a measure of a player's total contribution to winning), he's now a positive contributor playing about 25 minutes a night. Given how abysmal his rookie season was, that qualifies as a surprise.

Hornets creating buzz in the East: Batum and Williams

When Charlotte forward Michael Kidd-Gilchrist went down with a season-ending injury in October, few expected the Hornets to go anywhere.

But Nicolas Batum's arrival from Portland has been a godsend a season after he scored just 9.4 PPG and shot 32.4 percent on 3-pointers. With those numbers surging to a career-best 16.1 PPG and 37.5 percent on six 3-point attempts per game, Batum is posting a 2.4 RPM, well above last season's 0.6.

Meanwhile, Marvin Williams actually is the most surprising Hornet. The former No. 2 pick has improved his RPM from 1.0 to 3.1. Like Batum, he embodies Charlotte's major shift in offensive philosophy from being a team that eschewed the 3-point line to one of the league's most prolific bomb squads.

Williams is taking the most 3-pointers of his career and making them at a good clip (36.1 percent) while also rebounding more than ever, doubling his blocks from last season and posting the 10th-best turnover rate in the league.

Behind Batum, Williams, Kemba Walker and other contributors, Charlotte has the league's sixth-best offense so far after finishing 28th in offensive efficiency last season.

 

[Darealtwo1]

Westbrook vs. Curry: By the numbers

 

[Skooby]

Westbrook vs. Curry: By the numbers

Westbrook vs. Curry: By the numbers


Haberstroh: With a little under a month to go, the MVP race is heating up. Anthony Davis is a monster. LeBron James and the Cavs are rolling since he took a two-week sabbatical in Miami. James Harden has the Rockets with the fourth-best record in the NBA. Chris Paul is his normal, elite Chris Paul self.

But the two players who interest me most are Russell Westbrook and Stephen Curry. They're so deadly at the point guard position and yet so wildly different in style. Westbrook is a wrecking ball; Curry is a ninja. And their respective teams are in different spots so it's hard to peg their value.

I'm staring at Westbrook's 29.6 PER, which is second-highest in the league and considerably better than Curry's 27.5 figure. Only three other guards have ever put up a PER this high -- Chris Paul and Dwyane Wade, both in 2008-09, and some guy named Michael Jordan. Not to put all the eggs in the PER basket, but I'll use it as a launch pad into a larger, juicier debate:





Is Westbrook actually better than Curry?


Doolittle: First, we have to acknowledge that questions like this can be nebulous. That is, what do we mean by better? Who would win in an empty gym playing one-on-one? (Westbrook.) Who has had the better career? (Probably Westbrook, but debatable.) Who would you draft if we were picking the league from scratch today? (Now we're talking.) But I think what we mean by "better" in this context is who is better, right now, in an NBA context?

PER is a good enough thumbnail when looking at player value, but I'm not high on how it handles defense, which is but one reason I favor WARP. (That's wins above replacement, developed by our stat-Jedi colleague Kevin Pelton.) Whereas PER is strictly a per-possession measurement, WARP is a combination of quality and quantity, and not only is it expressed in the ultimate currency (wins), it's built to correlate with W's -- the only stat that really matters. Curry is on pace to lead the league in WARP (20.9 to 16.3 prorated for the full season), though the per-possession component of the metric has them neck-and-neck: .796 win percentage for Curry to .780 for Westbrook.

The closeness of these bottom-line figures means two things: We're splitting hairs of greatness here, and at this point in time, these players are really close. So to pick one, we'll have to dig a little deeper into tangential questions about whose production actually means more to his team. Any way you can think of to do that?

Haberstroh: Wait, so you mean we can't just say "they're both freaking amazing and let's enjoy it?" Fiiiine. To me, the key here is looking at the full picture. We have both covered Westbrook's dominance. I laid out the case that he's the most offensively dominant player ever. You pointed out that it hasn't translated into similar dominance on the scoreboard.

But people (not you!) need to stop citing Westbrook's field goal percentage when appraising Westbrook's value. This is 2015 -- why are we evaluating players like it's 1955? Yeah, his field goal percentage looks bad (42.7 percent) but considering he gets to the line so much (12.9 free-throw attempts per game in his last 10 games), his overall shot efficiency -- 53.7 true-shooting percentage -- is on par with Tony Parker (54.3) and Zach Randolph (53.7) and Ryan Anderson (53.5). No one's whining that they're unhealthy scorers and Westbrook is creating offense at almost twice the level they are. Coaches would kill for that blend of shot creation and efficiency.

And yes, Westbrook's shot efficiency is above the league average of 53.4 percent. This isn't Allen Iverson in 2001-02 when he put up 31.2 points per game on a putrid 48.9 true-shooting. But even with Westbrook's triple-double brilliance and ball-dominance, I kind of think he's hawking for steals rather than playing sound team defense. Real plus-minus paints Westbrook as a defensive liability (minus-0.56) and I tend to agree that he's gambling way more now. Curry, on the other hand, has been awesome on that end this season, which has helped to give him the overall edge in RPM (Curry's plus-8.9 vs. Westbrook's plus-6.5). Is it crazy to think that Curry's defense helps put him over the top here?

Doolittle: Westbrook reminds me of Nick Bottom from "A Midsummer Night's Dream" -- he truly believes he can play every role at the same time, and that especially hurts him on defense where it's crucial for players to stay within the team's scheme. That's what Curry does so well on both ends; he creates within the framework of what Golden State does as a team. Thus the higher RPM, and the Warriors' league-best record. That's why I'd rather have Curry as my point guard. However, it's close, and these guys are so different. Not just different, but different in historic ways, which leads us to a fascinating question you posed ...


Which skill is better: Westbrook's athleticism or Curry's shooting?


Haberstroh: Exhibit A:

I could just leave that here and call it a day, but I'll go ahead and bring some numbers to the table. Westbrook is destroying rims everywhere despite standing just 6-foot-3. Do you know how hard it is to do that?

I'll show you. He has more dunks this season (39) than Josh Smith (35) and 7-footer Robin Lopez (30). According to NBA StatsCube, Westbrook has thrown down 297 dunks in his career, which translates to 0.85 dunks every 48 minutes. The average 6-3 player in the database dunks 0.03 times every 48 minutes. Do the math and you find Westbrook dunks 28 times more often than an NBA player at his height should. He's averaging the most dunks per game for anyone under 6-foot-4 since 1997 (when the database begins). Statistically speaking, if all we knew was his dunk rate, we'd think he was 6-9, not 6-3.

That right there is freak athleticism. But it's not just dunks. He's averaging 10.8 rebounds per 100 possessions this season, which is the second-highest rate on record for anyone under 6-4 (the great Fat Lever is the gold standard here). I mean, Westbrook's currently rebounding at a higher rate than Juwan Howard's career rate (10.6). But let's be honest: we can point to all these numbers, but to really get the Westbrook experience, you just have to watch. Just look at that GIF.


Doolittle: What fascinates me about this question is that you can make legit analytical arguments to back up what our eyeballs tell. When you're talking about historical context, too often that's not the case. For me, I'll take Curry's shooting. It's not just his accuracy, but his accuracy combined with the ability to create. A glance at the all-time leaderboard in effective field goal percentage tells us a lot. The only players ahead of Curry were either specialists likeKyle Korver and Steve Kerr, or were big men who bolstered their percentages with a healthy dose of dunks. There's also another Pelton metric -- called Shoot -- that combines 3-point accuracy, 3-point volume and free throw shooting. The only guy ahead of Curry is Steve Novak, who has created basically zero shots for himself during his NBA career.

So you can make a good argument that Curry is the best shooter ever. For Westbrook's athleticism to rate as high, then we'd have to call him the best NBA athlete ever. And for sure -- there haven't been many better. I have a metric for this, too -- ATH rating -- which looks at things like size-adjusted rebounding, steals, blocks and foul drawing in an effort to quantify how players apply their athletic skills on the court. The all-time leader in career ATH is not Westbrook. It's Michael Jordan. Westbrook is fifth. So out of the scores and scores of NBA players to come along over the years, statistically Curry's dominant trait probably rates at the top. Westbrook is in about the 99.9th percentile. That's what I mean when I say we're debating shades of greatness here.


Haberstroh: As far as best shooters ever, I probably still have Steve Nash on the top of my list. He made 42.8 percent from 3-point land and he created more of those off the dribble than Curry did. I looked it up: 46.9 percent of Nash's three-pointers were unassisted (he created them) whereas Curry's career rate is at 37.8 percent.

I don't have any kids but I'd imagine this is how tough it'd be to pick a favorite kid. Between Nash, Curry, Ray Allen, Kerr and Korver, I don't know who I'd settle on as the best shooter ever. But to me, the effort to identify Westbrook's athletic peers yields a shorter list. I'm going with Westbrook and his athleticism. But I probably would rather have Curry's shooting skill ... which brings me to the next question.




Whose game will age better, Westbrook or Curry?

Doolittle: Generally speaking, the more athletic a player is, the better his game tends to age, and that's true over all sports.

The skilled performer -- Curry -- never really loses his skill in the way a Westbrook-like athlete can decline physically, but skills players degrade physically as well, and they have a smaller athletic margin in which to showcase their skill.

I worry a lot about Westbrook's helter-skelter style, however, and his injuries are already starting to mount up. And while he has plenty of athletic buffer, his skills -- especially shooting -- may not be refined enough to survive a significant loss of quickness and/or explosion. Think Derrick Rose, who is still a very good NBA player, but no longer one of the best. (Not saying he can't get it back, but ...) In the end, I think Curry will last longer, because at the very least he'll be an elite shooter and can play off the ball when he's 45 and Westbrook is long since retired.

Haberstroh: I share the same worries about Westbrook's ability to age gracefully. Behind one door, we have Wade's evolution as a star playmaker without a 3-point shot. Behind the other door, we have athletic guards like Steve Francis and Iverson who dunked all over everybody and then quickly vanished from the league.

But Westbrook's passing has quietly gotten so much better that it's making those who whine about his "impure" point guard skills look silly. Only a few players create more points via their assists, but most of that occurs from his ability to collapse the defense. That won't be there if he's not blowing past everybody. If he can't collapse the defense and get to the line, I'm not sure he's equipped to maintain his star status.

Meanwhile, I don't have any such worries about Curry. I'm expecting Nash-like longevity. That handle combined with that shooting? That'll last. Nash was an All-Star at 37 and I could totally see that for Curry. And then some.

 

[SmoothOperator]

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