Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

[Skooby]

Ford-Pelton: Duke's Ingram the next Durant?

Is Duke's Brandon Ingram the NBA's next great wing?
Is Brandon Ingram the best prospect after Ben Simmons?
Chad Ford: Ben Simmons has been No. 1 on my Big Board since it debuted in July. I'll be shocked if he doesn't stay there through draft night in 2016.

But figuring out who will be the No. 2 pick in the draft has proven more challenging. There are several players with the physical upside or skill set to be considered No. 2.

A little more than a month into the college season, NBA scouts seem to be leaning toward Duke's Brandon Ingram as the second-best prospect in the draft. I moved him to No. 2 on Big Board 3.0 on Friday.

Where does he stand on your statistical Big Board, Kevin?

Kevin Pelton: In part because of his move to No. 2 on your Big Board, Ingram is also second in my consensus projections that factor in subjective rankings.

Purely in terms of the statistical projection, Ingram ranks seventh, but that's partially because freshmen tend to have more conservative projections early in the season as I regress their stats to the mean. For example, Simmons isn't yet No. 1 in the statistical projections despite being far and away the top prospect when I remove the regression factor.

So I'd say so far Ingram's numbers agree with what scouts are seeing from him. Now what is that exactly, Chad?

What are Ingram's strengths?
Ford: There are a couple of things that scouts love about Ingram.

First, he has elite size for his position. Ingram stands 6-foot-10 as a perimeter player with a crazy 7-foot-3 wingspan. His length makes him especially intriguing as it lets him get off his shot against anyone, allows for him to be more creative finishing at the basket and makes him a menace on defense -- both in passing lanes and protecting the rim.

Second, Ingram has the potential to become a good shooter for a player his size. He's shooting nearly 49 percent on his 2-point jumpers, according to Hoop-Math.com, and 36 percent from 3-point range. If you subtract a pretty slow start for Ingram as he adjusted to his role at Duke and focus on his last five games, he looks even better.

What do the numbers say are his strengths, Kevin?

Pelton: Ingram's wingspan certainly stands out statistically as well. At this point, probably his best attribute is his combination of steal and block rates. He had three of each Monday and is now averaging 2.2 blocks and 2.0 steals per 40 minutes. That kind of combo usually translates into a quality NBA defender.

Ingram's other biggest strength might not be found anywhere on the box score -- his age. Most of the nation's top freshmen, including Simmons, are already 19. Ingram won't turn 19 until next September, making him the youngest prospect ranked in your top 50.

Given the importance of age in projecting future development, that's a huge plus in Ingram's favor.

One other concern for me is his free-throw shooting. Though pegged as a good-to-very-good shooter by scouts, he's shooting just 60 percent from the line. That number is worth watching going forward. What do the stats say about his weaknesses right now, Kevin?

Pelton: Spot on, Chad.

My biggest concern at this point would be Ingram's defensive rebounding. While he has been a presence on the offensive glass, Ingram is pulling down 12.1 percent of available defensive rebounds, which is below average for an NCAA small forward -- let alone an NBA-bound one. Playing at the top when the Blue Devils zone may be a factor in that.

As for foul shooting, as we discussed last year, it's a slightly better predictor of NBA 3-point percentage than college 3-point shooting.

That's playing out with another Duke forward, Justise Winslow. He hit 42 percent of his 3s from the college line, but his 64 percent foul shooting suggested that overstated his true ability. And indeed Winslow is shooting just 26.5 percent beyond the arc in the NBA this season.

So Ingram's free throw percentage should be something of a concern.

Ingram the next KD? PG? Giannis?
Ford: Comps are always especially difficult when you talk about players at the top of the Big Board.

At the top end of Ingram's potential, I've heard scouts compare him to a youngKevin Durant and Paul George. Both were skinny, long, athletic forwards with jump shots.

I see the similarities in style and skill, but it might be a bit optimistic to compare an 18-year-old to a pair of NBA MVP candidates. But in terms of his traits as an 18-year-old, the George comp isn't a bad one.

On the bottom end, I hear Tayshaun Prince a lot. Prince has had a solid NBA career, but he doesn't exactly scream No. 2 pick. What do the stats say?

Pelton: George does come up as one of Ingram's top four comps by my SCHOENE projection system, along with Luol Deng, Otto Porter and Khris Middleton as the closest match.

Watching Ingram play, however, another name comes to mind -- Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks, who isn't a potential SCHOENE match because he didn't play college basketball. Like Antetokounmpo at the start of his NBA career, Ingram is relying heavily on his athleticism and wingspan with the potential to become a star as he builds his skills around those tools.

Ingram's NBA projections from my system compare closely to what the Greek Freak did as a rookie at age 19:

Antetokounmpo And Ingram
PLAYER 2P% 3P% FT% REB% STL% BLK%
Antetokounmpo .440 .347 .683 10.4 1.6 2.6
Ingram (projected) .459 .343 .662 8.6 1.8 1.7
Ford: I like the Antetokounmpo comp, Kevin. Similar body type and athleticism. Giannis had a little better frame and was a better ball handler and playmaker, but Ingram is probably a little better shooter. If he's George or Giannis in four years, then I think he's worthy of the No. 2 pick.

 

[TrillCauleyStein]

skooby please and thx merry xmas

Alamar: How Kyrie, Cavs can beat Warriors

Pelton: Ish Smith not much aid for Sixers

 

[Skooby]

skooby please and thx merry xmas

Alamar: How Kyrie, Cavs can beat Warriors

Pelton: Ish Smith not much aid for Sixers

How Kyrie, Cavs can beat Warriors



When the Golden State Warriors square off with the Cleveland Cavaliers on Christmas Day (ABC/WatchESPN, 5 p.m. ET), they will do so as the top teams in their respective conferences, both in the standings and in ESPN's Basketball Power Index.

They are also on a collision course for the NBA Finals. The Cavs' strong start, coupled with the recent return of point guard Kyrie Irving, has Cleveland optimistic about winning a potential rematch against Golden State and finally grabbing the franchise's first NBA title.

But BPI suggests that such optimism has been founded on shaky ground.





Warriors have a dominating edge
While the Cavaliers are the top team in the East, their BPI of 4.7 -- meaning that on a neutral court they would be projected to beat an average team by about five points -- is not even half that of the Warriors at 10.4.

Basketball Power Index


ESPN's NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength developed by the ESPN Analytics team. It is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance for the rest of the season.

Ratings are updated daily.

How big is that gap? The Warriors are so far ahead of the Cavs that in a seven-game series in which the Warriors would be projected to have home-court advantage, Cleveland would have just a 12 percent chance of winning. In fact, even if the Warriors were to concede Game 1 of the series, they would still have a 71 percent chance of taking the title.

Or if the Cavs were to take a 2-1 series lead, as they did in the 2015 NBA Finals, they would still have only a 39 percent chance of winning -- which is how it played out six months ago.

But, as most Cavs fans are thinking right now, Irving has missed most of the season, so his impact on the team is not fully factored into this matchup. While that is accurate, it's unlikely that Irving would be able to move the needle enough. Even his and Iman Shumpert's return from injury would likely not improve Cleveland's chances from 12 percent to, say, 30 percent.

Irving is good -- the ninth-best point guard in the league last season, according to ESPN's Real Plus-Minus (RPM). But "good" isn't good enough to make up the gulf between the Warriors and Cavaliers. Considering that Irving remains a below-average defensive player, according to RPM, and that he would be facing reigning MVP Stephen Curry, the Cavs have to be concerned about how they match up.


How the Cavs can close the gap
What can the Cavs do to shift the odds? How can they attack the massive basketball machine known as the Warriors and triumph?

Using analytics to light the way, we can find the path for a potential Cavaliers' victory over the Warriors.

Pass to score

Step 1 for the Cavs is to recognize that passing, in a sense, is the new 3-pointer. Teams have taken more and more 3s over the years because, on average, 3-point attempts yield more points than long 2-point attempts. In the same way, shots that are set up by passing tend to be more successful than shots generated by a single player.

It's not only passing, but passing to set up shots. The Cavs are a great example. This season, 52 percent of the Cavaliers' made 2-point shots have been assisted, and they have scored 105 points per 100 possessions. In games where more than 52 percent of their 2-point shots are assisted, they have scored 111 points per 100 possessions.

Against the Warriors' defense, which is third-best in the league, more passing will lead to more efficient scoring. And this is where Irving can make a difference -- as both a passer and a scorer needing extra attention, opening up the Cavs' offense for better ball movement.

Think 2, not 3, on D

Step 2 is to slow down the Warriors' barrage of 3-pointers to a relatively normal rate of attempts.

When the Warriors shoot fewer 3s than they want to, their offense suffers. Of their overall field-goal attempts, 35 percent are 3s, putting them behind only the Houston Rockets in 3-point rate. When more than 35 percent of their shots are 3s, the Warriors score 116 points per 100 possessions, but when they take fewer than 35 percent, they score just 108 points per 100 possessions.

Of course, 108 points per 100 possessions would still be the best offense in the league, but at least it would not be the best offense in the history of basketball.

Crash the glass

The final step in the Cavs' quest to dethrone the Warriors is to crash the offensive boards. This point runs counter to common wisdom in some corners of analytic thought, because a focus on offensive boards can cost a team in transition defense. But beating the Warriors requires a team to think differently.

The Warriors get around 76 percent of available defensive rebounds, about league average. When they do better than 76 percent, they limit their opponents to 96 points per 100 possessions. When they do worse, their opponents score 101 points per 100 possessions.

Golden State forces opponents to take low-quality shots, and there are a lot of rebounds available. Since the Warriors tend to force teams to play small, they have an advantage in getting those boards. But when opponents can play big, hitting the glass often results in a much higher quality shot -- read, dunk. Or an open 3 on a kickout.





A healthy Cavs team will start Irving, a shooting guard, LeBron James, Kevin Love and a center. The need for offensive rebounds screams for Tristan Thompson starting at center, as he is much better on the offensive glass thanTimofey Mozgov. After all, Thompson earned his current contract by leading all Finals players in offensive boards with 32.



Of course, the Cavs would still be vulnerable to the Warriors' small lineup of Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, Harrison Barnes and Draymond Green. In that case, Thompson has to guard Green, while Love takes Barnes. Versus any team, the Warriors present a lot of bad matchups.

No matter what they do, LeBron and company will have a tough road to victory against Golden State. But if they can move the ball, limit the Warriors' 3s and get on the glass, Cleveland can convert its 12 percent chance to win into a much more hopeful number.

 

[Skooby]

Sixers get a PG for Christmas, but what's Ish Smith's impact?



The deal
76ers get: Guard Ish SmithPelicans get: 2016 Denver second-round pick, 2017 Philadelphia second-round pick


Philadelphia: D
The first trade of Sam Hinkie's tenure as general manager of the 76ers sent a point guard (Jrue Holiday) to New Orleans for draft picks, so it's fitting that the first trade of this transitory period after Philadelphia hired Jerry Colangelo as adviser involves the reverse.

The direction the point guard is heading isn't the only way this trade is the opposite of the one Hinkie made. Whatever your opinion of the process the Sixers undertook, there can be little doubt that they relentlessly pursued value in almost every deal. The second-round picks they stockpiled at the 2013 trade deadline became the symbol of that philosophy to the point of developing into a meme.

This trade represents the reverse of that philosophy. I understand why Philadelphia made this trade. I might even have done the same thing, because the 76ers getting beaten badly on a nightly basis helps no sort of process. But make no mistake, giving up two second-round picks -- and likely two relatively valuable ones at the top of the second round -- for a point guard whom they passed on re-signing this past summer and was freely available for the veterans minimum again when he was waived at the start of the season -- is horrendous value.

As explained to Zach Lowe not long ago, the Sixers figured they had Smith's replacement on the roster in Kendall Marshall. Marshall's slow recovery from ACL surgery forced them to go with a combo of Isaiah Canaan, undrafted rookie T.J. McConnell and street free agent Phil Pressey for the first month of the season.

McConnell has actually played well, but Canaan has conclusively proved he's not a point guard -- Philadelphia has been outscored by 19.1 points per 100 possessions when he plays there, per Nylon Calculus -- and Tony Wroten's inefficient return from his own ACL injury didn't help. The Sixers averaged a paltry 84.8 offensive rating with Wroten at point guard, per NBA.com/Stats, so it's little surprise that Philadelphia decided to give up on Wroten's recovery by waiving him to clear the roster spot needed to complete this move.

Now Philadelphia has a workable three-man rotation of a recovering Marshall -- still limited in terms of minutes and availability in back-to-back games -- McConnell and Smith, who was credible as the 76ers' starting point guard after last season's All-Star break. Philadelphia was outscored by 6.2 points per 100 possessions with Smith on the court, which doesn't sound great but is better than any player on this season's roster who has seen more than 200 minutes of action.

I fear Smith's value might be a little overstated by Sixers fans thirsty for any sign of progress. He's gotten a lot of credit for Nerlens Noel's strong offensive play after the All-Star break last season. Noel did rave about playing with Smith, but I'm not sure that performance is replicable with Noel playing next to Jahlil Okafor and maybe even with Okafor on the bench due to Noel's nagging injuries.



New Orleans: A
On the flip side of this deal, the Pelicans' getting two second-round picks for a player they picked up on waivers is a tidy piece of business. While it hasn't been a happy season in New Orleans, I'm sure the Pelicans' front office is taking more than a little pleasure out of getting that kind of value from the Sixers given their displeasure with Philadelphia not disclosing information about Holiday's health in that aforementioned first trade of the Hinkie era. (The 76ers were later fined $3 million by the NBA for the non-disclosure, according to the Philadelphia Inquirer.)

Smith gave New Orleans some solid minutes at point guard during the first month of the season, when he appeared to be the player most effective at running Alvin Gentry's offense. With Norris Cole and Tyreke Evans returning from injuries, however, Smith has been exiled to the fringes of the rotation. That makes sense.

In a vacuum, I think Smith is a better NBA player than the higher-paid Cole, but because of his non-shooting, Smith has to play with the ball in his hands to be effective. The Pelicans would rather have a healthy Evans and Holiday initiate their offense, so whoever backs them up has to be a threat spacing the floor. That describes Cole and not Smith.

So Smith was expendable for New Orleans to take advantage of Philadelphia's desperation to get him back.

 

[Spence]

Top fantasy QBs falter in critical Week 16

 

[Skooby]

Cam did me in man...he choose wrong week to not bring his A game.

Top fantasy QBs falter in critical Week 16

Top fantasy QBs falter in critical Week 16

The reason quarterbacks make for poor first-round fantasy draft picks really has nothing to do with the underwhelming results from this critical position in a frustrating Week 16. After all, who could have foreseen Cam Newton, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger, four of the seven most-active passers in ESPN standard leagues this week, combining for a mere three points more than what NFC East champion Kirk Cousins achieved on his own Saturday night? Call it an aberrant set of unlikely circumstances that frustrated fantasy owners, but this will be forgotten by next week, let alone next drafting season.

Rather, look at the bright side and note how much exciting depth there is at the quarterback position, especially when compared to flex-eligible options, and how several surprises truly affected fantasy owners this season, including Week 16 stars Cousins, Jacksonville Jaguars sophomore Blake Bortles and, yes, New York Jets bearded wonder Ryan Fitzpatrick. There’s nothing wrong with real-life MVP candidates Newton of the Carolina Panthers and Brady of the New England Patriots, who figure to decide the overall fantasy scoring title next week -- well, assuming they play -- but we can already see how they’ll be selected too early in drafts next season, just like Rodgers and injured veterans Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning in 2015. Waiting on the position is definitely the right move.

To be thorough, Newton is likely my highest-ranked quarterback in 2016 drafts, but that hardly means I’ll suddenly be considering anyone at the position in the first five rounds. Newton was a ninth-rounder this season. He’s obviously excellent, despite Sunday’s disappointing afternoon in Atlanta, still the best at combining running skills -- he scored his eighth rushing touchdown Sunday -- with passing proficiency, and clearly health is no longer an issue. I’ll be looking at some combination of running backs and wide receivers early in drafts, as always, and while I might not end up with one of the top-10 quarterbacks, I’ll likely choose two of the top 15 or so. Newton and Tony Romo were mid-round fixtures on my teams this season, one of them working out fantastically. When the latter got hurt and needed to be cut, there were plenty of available options worth adding and potentially streaming, including the wily veteran Fitzpatrick, who will finish in the overall top-10 yet still isn’t owned in half of ESPN’s leagues.

Regardless, and even though Week 16 hasn’t ended yet, my early projections have Newton, Rodgers and probably Luck as third-round choices in 2016 drafts, at best, followed in order at the position by Roethlisberger, Bortles, Brady, Carson Palmer, Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and Derek Carr. Perhaps the ones at the end of that list will be draft-day bargains like Newton was this season, and I’ll sure be tempted by to-be-sophomores Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston. Fitzpatrick goes into the veteran pile of potential starters for deep leagues along with Andy Dalton, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Cousins and Philip Rivers. Hey, it’s a deep position, so take advantage of it and build your roster elsewhere, with many wide receivers and the safest of running backs and tight ends.

Second down: Let’s circle back to Cousins, the top-scoring quarterback for Week 16 entering the Minnesota Vikings-New York Giants tilt, and himself a pretty unlikely top-10 season scorer. Cousins still wasn’t active in more than a third of ESPN standard leagues this weekend or last, when he also threw four touchdowns passes and topped 30 standard points, but his emergence is a reminder that fantasy owners should be open-minded to surprises, even at the most critical position, and pay special attention to matchups. It’s true, this week was a tough one matchup-wise for several of the top guys, like Brady and Rodgers; I actually ranked Rodgers eighth for the week and Cousins ninth. Cousins skewering an embarrassing Philadelphia Eagles defense in their quiet house Saturday night should also erase any thoughts of home/road splits, which simply do not exist. Cousins had issues in several road games this season because he faced the challenging Panthers, Patriots and Jets, not because of any skill deficiency. What happens to Cousins next season? Well, he’ll be looking for big money and Washington is likely to provide it, anything so they can move on from Robert Griffin III, and perhaps unlike most, I’m going to be optimistic that what we saw from Cousins this season wasn’t a fluke. It’s no mystery that cutting down on turnovers is key for the position, and Cousins made adjustments to his game. A Matt Jones breakout at running back and a healthy Jordan Reed could make Cousins a top-10 guy again.

In other quarterback news … honestly, don’t feel bad if you saw new Houston Texans starter Brandon Weeden sitting on free agency and ignored him. He scored 21 points for less than 1 percent of ESPN standard owners. And no, you don’t want to add him for Week 17 if you’re still playing for something. … New Orleans Saints star Brees overcome his painful plantar fasciitis to throw for 412 yards and provide 28 fantasy points against Bortles’ Jaguars. Brees wasn’t consistently awesome all season, but he topped 20 fantasy points each of the past four weeks. I won’t be expecting major dropoff in 2016. … There’s no reasonable explanation for Roethlisberger failing to skewer the Ravens’ secondary Sunday. A week earlier he threw for 380 yards and three scores on difficult Denver. Roethlisberger has to win in Week 17 at Cleveland, and while some will want no part of him, he will be among my top five, again. … Nobody should look at the Browns’ raw Johnny Manziel yet, but 108 rushing yards is kinda cool, no? The fact he nearly outrushed his passing yards Sunday, however, is not.

Third down: No player showed up on more ESPN Fantasy playoff rosters than Arizona Cardinals running back David Johnson, but though he didn’t match his incredible Week 15 outing of 40 standard fantasy points, we do thank him for Sunday’s 17-point effort. Johnson is among my top 10 running backs for 2016, assuming his team doesn’t do what it did for much of this successful season, and block him with veterans. Johnson’s workload was held in check Sunday, as the Cardinals rolled over Rodgers’ Packers and could keep him fresh, but this is someone in the Le’Veon Bell mold, capable of large rushing outputs and many receptions. Most importantly, Johnson’s emergence to become perhaps fantasy’s most indispensable option down the stretch -- and fantasy MVP contender -- is a reminder that the fantasy draft is fun and certainly matters, but keeping up with the trends on the free-agent wire all season is even more critical. In several of my championship rounds, including the ESPN Fantasy Focus Radio finals, none of the running backs on active rosters were even on our rosters a month ago. Embrace the volatility.

In other running back news … the high scorer at the position entering the Sunday night game was, of course, a guy who literally did not play in the NFL the previous three seasons or most of this one. But the Saints keep giving Tim Hightower the football, even benching the overrated C.J. Spiller, and Hightower, one of the 10-most active running backs in ESPN standard leagues, barreled his way to 28 standard points. As with his quarterback Brees, the Saints keep playing hard and their players will be worth it in Week 17. … Not all the fill-in running backs rocked, however. The Jaguars’ Denard Robinson, facing the Saints, saw little room and turned into a modest receiving option when his team trailed early. Panthers rookie Cameron Artis-Payne rushed for 49 yards on only five totes, but oddly wasn’t provided more touches. And Seattle’s Christine Michael really hurt his owners, turning six carries into six measly yards, reminding his fans why he hasn’t found an NFL home. … Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin remains a potential NFL rushing champ, but we could have done without his pair of lost fumbles Sunday. Look for a heavy workload from Martin the final week against Carolina (he did rush for 106 yards against the Panthers earlier this season). … Want another reminder how this hasn’t been a banner year for running backs? Each of the past two seasons there were 13 players who topped 1,000 yards. Entering Week 17 there are only four, and no guarantees anyone else joins the group.

 

[Skooby]

Fourth down: While the Jaguars need a reasonable defense to become a postseason entrant, there’s nothing wrong with the passing game. Bortles found Allen Robinson for a 90-yard scoring play, the longest from scrimmage in the league this season, and it pushed the second-year product from Penn State to more than 1,000 yards for the season. That might not seem like a major achievement, but the Jaguars hadn’t seen a wide receiver hit the mark in a decade, since Jimmy Smith in 2005. Robinson continues to cement his role as a top-five wide receiver in fantasy, and yes, since I can’t find more than a few running backs to warrant first-round placement next season -- Todd Gurley, Bell, Adrian Peterson and that’s probably it -- it means Robinson is likely a top-10 overall guy. Don’t mock a breakout performer whose 13 touchdowns are tied for the NFL lead, but also averages 16.5 yards per reception, a figure just outside the top 10. By the way, the Jaguars could place a second wide receiver at more than 1,000 yards, too, as Allen Hurns, a player so few seem oddly disinterested in activating week to week, caught two touchdowns Sunday and raised his yardage total to 907.


In other wide receiver news … there’s just no stopping Jets star Brandon Marshall, as his 23-point effort Sunday was also the 11th different game he caught a touchdown in and the fourth time in five weeks he eclipsed 100 receiving yards. His season is, quite frankly, the best for a wide receiver in Jets history, and he’s also a first-round pick next season. … While Eric Decker hasn’t been as productive, his game-winning overtime touchdown Sunday provided owners in standard scoring with the fifth consecutive double-digit performance, and 10th such outing this season. The amazingly consistent Decker is a top-10 wide receiver. … Did you see the amazing catch Atlanta’s Julio Jones made? I refuse to abide by the “never rest your studs” mantra but I wasn’t sitting Jones, even against Carolina. His 70-yard touchdown was a thing of beauty and next week he gets the Saints. He figures to be my No. 1 option. … Nice to see Detroit Lions great Calvin Johnson producing again, as he reached double-digits in standard scoring for the sixth time this frustrating season. He’s not a definite top-10 guy anymore, but might be in Week 17 at Chicago. … Steelers great Antonio Brown figured to do a lot better against the Ravens, but at least he gave us double-digits in PPR scoring. Martavis Bryant was a huge bust with one reception for six yards. Again, it’s unfortunate and inexplicable. … Biggest bust at wide receiver this season continues to be Green Bay’s Randall Cobb; he scored one fantasy point Sunday. Remove the name value and his quarterback and you’d never use him anymore, but there he was active in more than half of ESPN’s leagues anyway.

Thanks for reading Four Downs this season and best of luck in Week 17, if you need it.

 

[TrillCauleyStein]

Thx skob

 

[Cyber]

Ranking Porzingis, Towns and the top 10 rookies by future potential

 

[Skooby]

Ranking Porzingis, Towns and the top 10 rookies by future potential

Ranking Porzingis, Towns and the top 10 rookies by future potential

Which rookie has the most potential?
Kevin Pelton: Now that they've got two months of NBA experience under their belts, let's rank the crop of 2015 rookies in terms of their potential going forward. The top two spots seem pretty obvious, but there might be some uncertainty about the order.

At No. 1, I'm going to go with the top pick last June: Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns. Towns has been everything we expected and more as a rookie. Shaquille O'Neal is the only rookie age 20 or younger as of Feb. 1 to post a better player efficiency rating than Towns has this season (22.4), according to Basketball-Reference.com. He looks like a superstar, and sooner rather than later. Agree?

Ford: Totally agree. Towns was the No. 1 prospect on draft night and he has lived up to the hype. In fact, I think he's surpassed it.

He's a legitimate threat on both ends of the floor. I think we all thought it would take Towns a little longer than several of the other top prospects to dominate in the NBA, especially on the offensive end. As you've pointed out, he's having one of the best rookie seasons in a long, long time. He's got a chance to be the best prospect to come into the NBA since Anthony Davis.

Who's No. 2 on your list? Let me guess, he's the Mayor of New York right now.

Pelton: Not sure about mayor -- have we gotten his position on sugary beverages? No, Kristaps Porzingis is much more popular than that.

A recent Porzingis slump has made it much clearer that Towns is the favorite for rookie of the year and the more promising of the top two players in the 2015 draft, especially since he's three months younger. But Porzingis has a bright future in his own right. As we've discussed, he's producing much more quickly than expected, especially as a rebounder and defender.

Ford: I agree on Porzingis, though I think his recent slump doesn't impact what I see coming from him in the future.

As he gets stronger, I expect he'll continue to improve as a rebounder and defender. And I think he's a much better perimeter player than he has shown so far in New York. Get him with the right coach and I think he blossoms there as well. Both he and Towns, if they hit their ceilings, could be in the MVP conversation in three or four years.

Well, with Towns and Porzingis off the board, things get a lot more interesting. The other high-ceiling rookies have all had significant struggles their rookie seasons and some of the stronger performing rookies don't have particularly high ceilings.

Who's No. 3 on your list, Kevin?

Pelton: Yep, now things get interesting. I'm going with the guy I had No. 2 before the draft: D'Angelo Russell. I find the narrative that Russell is "struggling" fascinating, given that most all-in-one stats suggest he has been better than fellow top-five picks Jahlil Okafor and Mario Hezonja, as well as fellow point guard Emmanuel Mudiay.

As I've pointed out in chats, Russell is having one of the best seasons ever by a 19-year-old guard, based on PER. He's fourth among this group behind Kyrie Irving, Stephon Marbury and Bradley Beal. Mudiay is 10th, according to Basketball Reference.

Ford: Tempting. I agree that the narrative on Russell has been too hard. Factor in the weird situation in L.A. -- with Russell planted in the middle of a season entirely dedicated to Kobe -- and I think he has done well. But I actually feel that after watching both of them play in the NBA, I'd still go with the guy I had No. 3 in my Grade A mock: Emmanuel Mudiay.

I know by certain metrics Mudiay has been awful; his shooting percentage is terrible and turnover rate is enormously high. Still, I think that once he settles down a bit and his decision making improves -- both in shot selection and passing -- he's going to be a terrific power point guard in the NBA.

Russell has a chance to get there as well, but I lean Mudiay. I think his superior physical tools will eventually win out once he gets more experience.




Ranking the rest


Ford: Who's next for you, Kevin?

Pelton: Now I'm throwing my hands up. You phrased it well as a choice between potential and current production. And I'm not sure there's a good compromise.

If anything, the first two months of the season have only exacerbated my concerns about Okafor's ability to anchor a quality NBA defense, while raising some new ones about how he fits offensively and off the court. I think Mudiay will eventually be a productive player, but it could take years. So I'm going to go with the only top-seven pick we haven't mentioned: Willie Cauley-Stein.

I wasn't a fan before the draft because of his poor rebounding and limited offensive production, but Cauley-Stein has been better than expected on the glass (the Sacramento Kings have missed him there since his injury) and shown good touch around the basket. His upside isn't enormous but given Cauley-Stein's defensive ability he's relatively certain to be a useful starter in the league. I'm not sure how many other rookies can say that.

Ford: I agree at this point, it's hard to find someone to really gush about. I think Cauley-Stein is a defensible pick, but I'm looking at a pool of five players and he's not even in that.

Justise Winslow (if he ever figures things out offensively) and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (ditto) have both had a huge impact on the defensive end. I think Nikola Jokic and Hezonja have intriguing offensive upsides. But my fourth choice is Russell.

I have reservations because of his lack of elite athleticism and he hasn't proven to be the shooter many scouts thought he'd be coming out of college. That's the biggest concern. He's a very good player if he shoots 40 percent or better from 3-point range. If he stays at 33 percent, his value goes way down -- and I'm talking myself out of the pick as I write this. Gah!

Pelton: I'm going to go with one of the players you mentioned, Hollis-Jefferson. At this stage in their careers, Hollis-Jefferson and Winslow have fairly similar skill sets. You can certainly favor Winslow based on his age and ability to play power forward, but I prefer Hollis-Jefferson at this point because he has been a better rebounder and is racking up more blocks and steals.

Hollis-Jefferson is rebounding like a power forward and his steal rate this season is the same as Kawhi Leonard's. I'll take that. Can you find a fifth rookie in whom you're confident?

Ford: Before the draft, everyone was talking about Winslow versus Stanley Johnson. Now I think the Winslow versus Hollis-Jefferson debate is the fascinating one, and I'm torn between the two. But for the reasons you mentioned -- Winslow's age and ability to play power forward, and I think his shot is less broken than Hollis-Jefferson's -- I give Winslow the edge.

Over time I think he'll play a bigger and bigger role for the Heat and can even envision him turning into a Kawhi Leonard type with his work ethic. But Hollis-Jefferson was definitely one of the steals of the draft.

I've been expecting you to pull a real sleeper based on the analytics. Who do you have in the rest of your top 10?

Pelton: Here's my list:

6. Justise Winslow

7. Emmanuel Mudiay

8. Jahlil Okafor

9. Myles Turner

10. Frank Kaminsky

Not a real sleeper in the group. One challenge is the difficulty in evaluating pre-draft favorites such as R.J. Hunter and Delon Wright who have barely played on deep teams. I did consider Jokic, but his ability to defend an NBA position is an issue. Devin Booker and Kelly Oubre also got strong consideration.

Ford: Fair enough. Since this ranking is based on potential, I think we are still too early enough in the season to be totally swayed by the numbers.

Here's the rest of my group:

6. Myles Turner

7. Kelly Oubre

8. Mario Hezonja

9. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

10. Jahlil Okafor

The Okafor ranking is low, but I just worry about everything from the way the game has changed to the culture he has been thrown into. Turner looked promising before he went down with an injury. I think he could be good down the road.

I have two guys on my list that you don't. I think Oubre just oozes potential and all the recent injuries in Washington are giving him a chance to be a really effective two-way player, especially if he keeps shooting the ball that well.

Hezonja hasn't been great yet, but when he's been given minutes, he's proven to be an effective shooter and scorer. I think it's coming. With the league's emphasis on shooting, his skills will be valuable. Cauley-Stein, Jokic and Booker were my next three in.

 

[Chris Cool]

Bowen: Ranking the Year 2 quarterbacks

 

[Skooby]

Bowen: Ranking the Year 2 quarterbacks

Ranking the Year 2 quarterbacks



Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is a division champ and on the cusp of making his first career postseason start this Sunday, when the Minnesota Vikings host the Seattle Seahawks.

With numbers associated with a game manager at the position (14 TD passes, nine interceptions), where does Bridgewater rank among the 2014 quarterback class? And how does his development in 2015 mesh with that of Blake Bortles and Derek Carr and even the uncertain future of Johnny Manziel?

Let's take a deeper look at these four quarterbacks and discuss the overall career arc that is starting to take shape with this group. From Carr's monster arm to Bortles' progression in the Jaguars' offense, this class has some talent to build around.




1. Derek Carr, Oakland Raiders

The ball whistles when it comes out of Carr's hands. Man, he throws with some heat. That's what I immediately noticed when watching Carr during Senior Bowl practices before the 2014 draft, and it shows up on the tape. The velocity he can put on the ball is ridiculous. But in his second season, he has improved his ability to make a variety of throws. I'm talking about the touch passes down the seam, the outside breaks, the ball placement on the fade or the bucket tosses in the vertical passing game.

This season, Carr passed for 3,987 yards (61.1 completion percentage) and 32 touchdown passes for a Raiders team on the uptick. His Total QBR? Not a great number at 49.2, but an improvement from the 38.2 he posted as a rookie. Plus, the Raiders added a star at wide receiver in Amari Cooper and a middle-of-the-field option in tight end Clive Walford. Those are two young targets that can develop next to Carr for years. You want to see better play out of a young quarterback? Then get him some guys who can make plays, win one-on-ones and show up in critical game situations. That's what the Raiders are doing with Carr.

Carr can still create adverse situations on the field because he plays like a gunslinger at times. I would say he has some Brett Favre in him. And while having an aggressive quarterback leads to big plays down the field or in the red zone, it also gets your ball club in trouble with turnovers or negative plays. Carr threw three interceptions in the fourth quarter against Kansas City in Week 13, when the Raiders blew a 20-14 lead.

At 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, Carr doesn't have a big frame, but he has proved he can deliver the ball against pressure, and there is no questioning his toughness. He plays hard and has a huge arm that lets him take shots over the top, with 10 touchdown passes of throws of at least 20 yards downfield. His overall game is quickly developing. With more spread looks from Bill Musgrave's offense in Oakland, Carr looks comfortable, and the Raiders are catering to his skill set at the position. Oakland has a future stud at the position -- finally.



2. Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars

At 6-foot-5, 245 pounds, Bortles has legitimate pro size, NFL arm strength and underappreciated athletic ability to get outside of the pocket. As a rookie, the game plan was somewhat limited for Bortles. I get it. The tape tells us the Jags' coaching staff opened it up a bit in 2015 to fit Bortles' progression in the system. That resulted in some big-time numbers, including 4,428 passing yards and 35 touchdowns.

Yes, those stats are somewhat inflated, given that the Jags had to sling the ball in multiple games in which they trailed in the second half. But focus on the footwork and overall mechanics with Bortles. His technique and pocket vision are much better than they were in his rookie season, and we are seeing that athleticism come into play more as the Jaguars get him on the edge of the pocket with boot plays. His Total QBR on the season was 46.5, 27th-best in the NFL, but like Carr, that's a major jump from the 25.2 he posted as a rookie, when he was thrown right into the fire. Bortles can move, make stick throws outside of the numbers and create throwing windows. Add that to his ability to hang in the pocket, and there's a lot to like about his skill set.

Bortles, who had a 58.9 completion percentage this season, is never going to be mentioned with some of the more accurate quarterbacks in the NFL, and I don't know how much that will change. He also threw 18 interceptions, which will have to be reduced, and he needs to improve his ability to handle pressure. Bortles was pressured more than any other quarterback in the NFL this year (250 dropbacks), while getting sacked 51 times.

Given the playmakers the Jags are developing around Bortles, including WRs Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, and his ability to push the ball downfield, with eight touchdowns on throws that traveled at least 20 yards, the Jags have to feel good about their future on offense.



3. Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings

The most accurate quarterback of the 2014 class, Bridgewater can light up defenses on inside throws and anticipate throwing windows. On the season, Bridgewater completed 65.3 percent of his passes, ninth-best in the NFL, and his Total QBR of 62.7 is much higher than those of Bortles and Bridgewater. That speaks to his efficient play in the Vikings' offense.

Bridgewater has answered some questions from his scouting report coming out of Louisville. He has shown the ability to connect on passes outside of the numbers with velocity, throw a very catchable ball on intermediate concepts and take a shot despite his slight frame. He drops down on his release and almost throws sidearm at times, a motion that doesn't mesh with the old-school scouts in the NFL, but he can dice up defenses between the numbers and is improving on his ability to manipulate secondaries with his eyes. That creates open targets and allows Bridgewater to keep the ball away from defensive backs on inside-breaking routes.

Given the Vikings' formula of winning games with a running attack led by Adrian Peterson, a ball-control offense and a fast, nasty, aggressive defense, Bridgewater does have to manage the game at times based on the opponent. That's what we saw against the Packers in Week 17, when Bridgewater completed 10 of 19 passes for only 99 yards. However, Bridgewater has thrown for over 300 yards twice this season and over 250 yards in two others. It's not that he can't drop back and sling the ball; he's just not asked to do it as much as Carr or Bortles.

In terms of his pocket mobility and throwing versus pressure, the tape tells me Bridgewater has improved from his rookie season. He scrambles to throw, and his eye level is much better this season along with his ability to identify blitz looks.

Bridgewater doesn't have the arm strength or the measurables of Carr and Bortles, but his accuracy and overall fit with the Vikings have allowed him to develop at a smooth pace. The Vikings have a system and a quarterback they can build around.



4. Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns

Manziel gets an incomplete grade from me because of his limited reps. His development as a pro has been hampered by the poor situation in Cleveland and, of course, his actions off the field. Accountability is a big thing in the NFL. He needs to learn that.

The big questions with Manziel haven't changed: Can he play from the pocket? Can he be creative while running an NFL system? Can he make NFL throws consistently?

I've seen some improvement from Manziel this season, but it comes in spurts. Check the tape from the Jets and Titans games earlier in the season or the first half versus the Bengals. He was getting the ball out against pressure, going through his progressions and finding the proper matchup to take advantage of coverages. And he was using his natural ability as a playmaker to extend the pocket or advance the ball with his legs.

There are still too many inconsistencies with Manziel when his technique drops, his footwork becomes an issue and the ball sails. Plus, he runs around almost too much at times. Remember, Manziel isn't a zone-read quarterback who is going to keep the ball, pick up 5-7 yards and move the sticks. Instead, he runs from the pocket to make plays. While that does generate issues for defenders in coverage, he has to progress in the pocket and make the throw despite his smaller frame (6-foot, 210 pounds). That takes time and reps.

Manziel, who passed for 1,500 yards with seven touchdowns and five interceptions this season, shouldn't be expected to develop into a pure pocket guy. That's not his game. You want that controlled, creative ability to show if it leads to more positive situations on the field. And I've seen flashes of that this season. But the overall development has been so choppy and interrupted that we don't know yet what the future holds for Manziel.

Will he stay in Cleveland? I doubt that. The new coach and general manager for the Browns could send Manziel packing. However, no matter where he lands, his game must take a step forward to be mentioned with Carr, Bortles and Bridgewater. Those three quarterbacks from the 2014 class are showing a gradual arc in the learning process, whereas Manziel remains a mystery.

 

[Chris Cool]

Kiper: 2015 NFL all-rookie teams

 

[Skooby]

Kiper: 2015 NFL all-rookie teams

Mel Kiper's 2015 all-rookie team



So we're officially at the end of the line. I know nobody reads the intro, so let me just cut to the chase with the parameters I use all year for the Rookie Rankings, just so you have the rules.

• This is a measure for all games this season.
• Total snap count matters. Staying on the field is a measure of value.
• Positional value matters, but overall performance and impact on the team matters more.
• Relative value matters. I ask: Would this player be a starter on a really good team?

With that in mind, here is the team -- offense, defense and special teams.





Offensive rookie of the year


Jameis Winston, QB, Buccaneers

You can argue that passing totals are up and we shouldn't get too excited about another great rookie season, but consider the company Winston is in after throwing for 4,042 yards. Andrew Luck. Cam Newton. Peyton Manning. And Winston did it a year younger than Newton and Manning. The totals are nice; the rate of improvement is what is really impressive. This is what you hope to see in a No. 1 pick.

Others considered: Todd Gurley, Rams; Mitch Morse, Chiefs



Defensive rookie of the year



Leonard Williams, DE, Jets

He played nearly 800 snaps, was outstanding against the run, helped free up teammates to rush the passer, and actually did some great work in pushing the pocket himself. You really have to watch Williams on every snap because stats won't do him justice. I had him as the No. 1 overall player in the 2015 NFL draft, and I think he lived up to that. And yes, he was a total steal at No. 6 for New York. Great work by that front office.

Others considered: Marcus Peters, Chiefs; Ronald Darby, Bills





Offense

Quarterback: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers

Marcus Mariota did some really impressive things but missed some time, so Winston gets the nod. By the way, I found myself looking at this rookie class and wondering what Brett Hundley is going to be. I think he'll be ready beforeAaron Rodgers is ready to go anywhere -- maybe by a handful of years.

Running back: Todd Gurley, Rams

Gurley wasn't a total runaway from Thomas Rawls, T.J. Yeldon and David Johnson, but his 1,106 yards have to make the Rams feel better about the risk they took in taking him at No. 10 overall. If there's a question, it's about consistent production versus a reliance on big plays for big yardage totals.

Fullback: Michael Burton, Lions

Not a crowded field here, with Burton getting the nod over Jalston Fowler. Think he's there to block? Burton racked up four carries for 2 yards.

Wide receivers: Amari Cooper, Raiders; Stefon Diggs, Vikings; Tyler Lockett, Seahawks

Yes, these were the top three rookie leaders in receiving yardage, but I also think they led the way in impact, so they get the three spots in my offense. But it was another full class -- I also considered Jamison Crowder, Devin Funchess and Dorial Green-Beckham and also saw a late charge from DeVante Parker.

Tight end: Clive Walford, Raiders

Rookie tight ends rarely put up big totals, so call Walford's 28 catches is highly encouraging. He'll become a bigger weapon. Maxx Williams was in the mix. And I see you, Blake Bell, Tyler Kroft, Nick Boyle and MyCole Pruitt.

Offensive tackles: Donovan Smith, Buccaneers; Robert Havenstein, Rams

Important: Smith gets the nod at left tackle where, frankly, it wasn't pretty for any rookie who saw time there, and Havenstein gets the nod at right tackle. After that, let's just say it's not easy to jump to the NFL and hold down a tackle position as a rookie. I give Ereck Flowers serious kudos, however. He was put in a tough spot and competed. He'll get better.

Guards: Ali Marpet, Buccaneers; Brandon Scherff, Redskins

Play over an entire season gets these two ahead of La'el Collins, who eventually stepped into a starting role and is a tremendous run-blocker.

Center: Mitch Morse, Chiefs

When they go back over the season, the Chiefs could call Morse their most valuable offensive lineman. He stayed on the field amid chaos on that unit caused by injuries. David Andrews and Hroniss Grasu were two others worth mentioning, but Morse was the clear leader here.





Defense



Defensive ends: Leonard Williams, Jets; Mario Edwards Jr., Raiders

Important note here: Henry Anderson would have challenged for defensive rookie of the year had he stayed healthy. But he's been out half the season. Williams you know about if you read the top, but Edwards really started to come on and officially served notice that he has Pro Bowl potential starting as soon as 2016. Tremendous potential, tremendous power. I also have to call out Danielle Hunter, who is showing star potential, and Arik Armstead.

Defensive tackles: Eddie Goldman, Bears; Malcom Brown, Patriots

Goldman is going to be a centerpiece for the Chicago defense for years to come, and Brown is every bit the steal I assured you he was when he fell, inexplicably, all the way down to the end of Round 1. Rodney Gunter, David Parry and Grady Jarrett are three others who deserve mention.

Inside linebackers: Kwon Alexander, Buccaneers; Eric Kendricks, Vikings

Alexander lost time at the end of the season with a suspension, but he did really well when thrown into action; he won't turn 22 until training camp in August. Kendricks makes it two straight years in which the Vikings have found a stud linebacker out of UCLA. Jordan Hicks probably beats out one of these two if he stays healthy, and Denzel Perryman, Stephone Anthony and Jake Ryan were all close.

Outside linebackers: Markus Golden, Cardinals; Preston Smith, Redskins

Smith really turned it up later in the season and became a big part of that defense. He also led all rookies in sacks with 8.0. Golden looks like an absolute steal for the Cardinals. He's going to get his share of sacks in the future (and maybe in the playoffs). Shaq Thompson and Hau'oli Kikaha were also considered.

Cornerbacks: Ronald Darby, Bills; Marcus Peters, Chiefs

Darby was one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL -- not just the rookie class -- for the bulk of the season. Peters is going to be a star. There were a lot of big plays allowed, but he also made a ton of them himself. He tied for the league lead in interceptions (eight) as a rookie, and it's clear his instincts and ball skills are special. Elsewhere, Damarious Randall, Byron Jones, Kevin Johnson, Quinten Rollins, Quinton Dunbar and Quandre Diggs all deserve mention. Diggs is a guy I thought would be a star going back to his high school days. He didn't always show that at Texas, but here we are.

Safeties: Landon Collins, Giants; Adrian Amos, Bears

Give Collins a lot of credit. A lot was asked of him, and while he struggled plenty, he gave the Giants reps, led the rookie class in tackles and is going to get better. Amos played a very good free safety for the Bears. Kyshoen Jarrett andJaquiski Tartt also deserve a mention.





Special teams



Kicker: Josh Lambo, Chargers

Lambo edges out Andrew Franks because he made twice the number of field goals (26 to 13) at a higher percentage, and also knocked home 4 of 5 from 50-plus yards.

Punter: Matt Darr, Dolphins

Darr gets the nod, though he needs to cut down on the touchbacks, which make an impressive 47.6-yard average look a little leaner.

Kick returner: Ameer Abdullah, Lions

Abdullah finished No. 2 in the NFL in kickoff return average at 29.1 yards per pop.

Punt returner: Tyler Lockett, Seahawks

Punters are already keenly aware of Lockett. They either need to get the ball a mile in the air and sacrifice distance or get it out of bounds.

Long-snapper: Joe Cardona, Patriots

He was my No. 1 long-snapper in the draft. Glad the econ major from the Naval Academy found an NFL home.

 

[ReturnOfJudah]

Can somebody hook ya boy up? TIA

Gasaway: Top 25 college hoops players at midseason