Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

[Skooby]

Can somebody hook ya boy up? TIA

Gasaway: Top 25 college hoops players at midseason

Top 25 college hoops players at midseason



Welcome to my regularly scheduled impossible task, listing a mere 25 great players and not fretting about the amazing talents found in Division I's "other" 99.4 percent.



So let us begin. This is a ranking of the nation's top players based on college production this season as opposed to professional potential. Sometimes those two criteria align more or less completely (see No. 1), and other times they are somewhat more contradictory (choose your own best example). When the latter case arises, I rule in favor of college production and rank accordingly. We also ranked the top 100 players before the season.



Based on this premise, these are my selections as the top players of 2015-16 so far:

1. Ben Simmons, LSU Tigers
Freshman | Forward



Thank goodness for Ben Simmons, who has single-handedly salvaged what is now an otherwise rather forlorn offseason ranking of top 25 players put together by yours truly. I wish I had a lot of those choices back, the main issue being that the LSU star's fellow freshmen nationally, with a few notable exceptions, have failed to deliver on expectations.



Conversely Simmons has actually been even better than I thought he'd be, and I had him ranked No. 1. Even though he was in foul trouble in LSU's 18-point win at home over Kentucky this week, Simmons, when afforded the opportunity, was still capable of making John Calipari's McDonald's All-Americans look like plucky but doomed mid-major underdogs. I was reminded anew that it's kind of a big deal to see a 6-foot-10 19-year-old who dominates the glass at will and then exhibits the calm floor mastery of a veteran point guard.



Right now Simmons is the only player in Division I who gives me the palpable sense that he's about to do something not only extraordinary and indelible but also completely feasible for him personally. Quibble with the LeBron talk if you wish, but this is the best player in college basketball, and it's not even close.

2. Buddy Hield, Oklahoma Sooners
Senior | Guard



Hield was having a season for the ages even before the Kansas game. Still, nothing gets the word out quite like going off for 46 points in a three-overtime classic that also happened to be the highest-rated Big 12 "Big Monday" game on record.



Ever since his sophomore season, Hield has consistently been able to score from both sides of the arc as the first option in Lon Kruger's offense. What's new and different and indeed disastrous for opposing defenses this season is that OU's senior is now drawing six fouls per 40 minutes and shooting 90 percent at the line. Against KU, Hield made 12 of 14 free throws to go along with eight 3s.



A deadly perimeter shooter who can also get to the line places tremendous pressure on the opposing defender. My Top 25 is agnostic where pro potential's concerned, but as it happens the NBA likes preternatural scoring ability too. It's no mistake that Hield's draft stock is rising fast.

3. Wayne Selden Jr., Kansas Jayhawks
Junior | Guard



You could feel a disturbance in the college hoops punditry force this past week, as a consensus formed suddenly, unmistakably and perhaps even irrevocably. The national player of the year race is now down to just four players: Ben Simmons, Buddy Hield, Kris Dunn and Denzel Valentine. Period.



Great players all, but what, exactly, is going on here? Consider Selden, who has had a virtually perfect first nine weeks. Why is he not part of this discussion? Could it be because, a bit like the college football polls, where you were slotted on media day continues to matter well into the regular season? Let's hope not. A combo guard shooting 56 percent on 2s and 53 percent on 3s as a featured scorer for the nation's top-ranked team surely merits a seat at the table with Ben, Buddy, Kris and Denzel.

4. Denzel Valentine, Michigan State Spartans
Senior | Guard



So Valentine sits for just four measly games due to a knee injury, and suddenly everyone's jabbering about Ben Simmons this and Buddy Hield that. Sic transit gloria mundi, right, Denzel?



The good news for Valentine's POY candidacy -- and, more importantly, for Michigan State's season -- is that Tom Izzo's senior is expected to return to action this weekend against Penn State. Valentine shares some overlap with Simmons in that both players combine assists and scoring with defensive boards. However, unlike the LSU star, Valentine stretches defenses with his perimeter shooting. The Spartans' irreplaceable man will have people jabbering in his direction again soon enough.

5. Brice Johnson, North Carolina Tar Heels
Senior | Forward



Think of Johnson as the in-the-paint version of Wayne Selden. People knew before the season started that he'd be a really good player for a national championship contender, but individual accolades were pre-slotted for a high-scoring teammate named Marcus Paige. (Perry Ellis for Selden, if you will.)



Paige has indeed been superb (see below) but Johnson's been little short of unreal. On literally any other night over the past two months, posting a 39-23 double-double on the road against an NCAA tournament-trajectory opponentwould have been hailed industry-wide as a season-defining event. Alas, Johnson's touching reenactment of Bill Walton's performance in the 1973 national championship game occurred on the same evening as the three-overtime epic between Oklahoma and Kansas. Be that as it may, the facts here are pretty insistent. UNC may have the nation's best offense, and right now Roy Williams' best play call is, in its entirety, "Guys, give the ball to Brice."

6. Jarrod Uthoff, Iowa Hawkeyes
Senior | Forward



Now it all makes sense: Bo Ryan was so right to try with all his feisty curmudgeonly might to hold on to to would-be transfer Uthoff back in 2012. Just look at what the erstwhile Badger's been able to accomplish as Iowa's featured scorer. At 6-foot-9 Uthoff is a stretch-4 who scores in the paint and makes 46 percent of his 3s while ranking in the top 20 nationally in block percentage (per KenPom). In any normal season where Denzel Dementia wasn't (quite rightly) sweeping the conference, Uthoff Euphoria would reign supreme and make the Hawkeye senior the man to beat for Big Ten POY honors.

7. Georges Niang, Iowa State Cyclones
Senior | Forward



I have to wonder whether to some extent Niang's national standing isn't suffering from Excessive Familiarity Syndrome. He's been so good for so long that by now his excellence is taken for granted. Meanwhile the Iowa State senior is actually better than ever, raising his 2-point accuracy (which was already impressive enough, given his workload) by fully 12 percentage points since last season. Maybe this is what happens when you continually seek improvement. All I know is that Niang is still the quartz movement in yet another elite Cyclone offense.

8. Kris Dunn, Providence Friars
Junior | Guard



Dunn quite simply combines assists with defense better than any scoring point guard in the country, and he's done it now for two consecutive seasons. Start with the fact that the junior's already recorded 10 steals in the 188 Big East possessions where he's been on the floor. Dunn also reliably connects on half his 2s, and this season he's drawing more fouls and hitting more 3s than ever before. The only variable in this evaluative mix is turnovers. Dunn's TO rate has dropped significantly since last season, but it's trending back up after he donated the ball to the other team 12 times in just the last two games (including seven turnovers in Providence's one-point loss to Marquette).

9. Marcus Paige, North Carolina Tar Heels
Senior | Guard



Perhaps the best indication of North Carolina's true potential is that, while Paige is widely perceived to be the lead scorer in the Tar Heel attack, this offense has in fact flourished with its point guard acting more as a facilitator than as a traditional hero-ball player. The senior's assist rate is steady and his shooting at the line has dropped to a mere (ha) 81 percent (down from 87), but everywhere else you look Paige is posting career-best numbers. (He's even dunking now.) Suffice it to say when "career-best" is used as a modifier with reference to the performance of a preseason first-team All-Amercian, you're looking at a pretty good year.

10. Jakob Poeltl, Utah Utes
Sophomore | Forward



Last season everyone, present company included, was correctly excited that Jahlil Okafor made 66 percent of his 2s as Duke's featured scorer. So I guess I'm not entirely sure why there's relatively little notice much less acclaim being given to the fact that Poeltl is a career 68 percent 2-point shooter. It's true that as a team Utah has struggled to follow up on last season's breakthrough performance, but part of the problem here has been simply Poeltl's availability. The sophomore fouled out after scoring 16 points in 21 minutes at Stanford, and the Utes went on to lose in overtime.

 

[Skooby]

11. Grayson Allen, Duke Blue Devils
Sophomore | Guard



Allen's well on his way to being that most improbable of oxymorons, the under-publicized Duke star. Last season he spent much of his freshman year on the bench before finally getting the chance to record 21 rather amazing minutesin the national title game. This season he's a sublimely efficient workhorse on a 13-2 team that's ranked No. 14 nationally and parked, for the moment, just outside the spotlight occupied by Kansas and its one-loss ilk. Allen's averaged just a hair under 25 points a game over his last three outings.

12. Ben Bentil, Providence Friars
Sophomore | Forward



There's a case to be made that Providence's rise in the polls this season (which is about to take a hit after the Friars' loss at home to Marquette) has been due to Bentil more than it's been to Kris Dunn. That's no slight on the junior point guard, mind you. It's just that Dunn was already about this good last season. Bentil, on the other hand, has had the mother of all breakout sophomore seasons. As PC's leading scorer, the 6-foot-9 forward is coming off a 28-point, nine-rebound effort in the loss to the Golden Eagles. Bentil has also connected on 22 of his last 23 free throws. He's blowing up before our eyes.

13. Melo Trimble, Maryland Terrapins
Sophomore | Guard



As a sophomore Trimble has become a much better scorer inside the arc, including and especially on drives where he's not fouled. His 2-point accuracy has jumped by 10 percentage points and, per hoop-math.com, he has improved markedly in terms of finishing at the rim. Meanwhile Mark Turgeon's star guard is still a potent threat from the perimeter, not to mention a master of drawing crunch-time fouls. Let's hope Trimble's hamstring is indeed fine, because the Terrapin sophomore is one of the game's most accomplished and entertaining players.

14. Malcolm Brogdon, Virginia Cavaliers
Senior | Guard



I frankly didn't know this was allowed in Charlottesville, but somehow Virginia's offense (scoring 1.20 points per possession in two ACC games) now appears to be better than its defense (allowing 1.12). Put me down as suspecting that Brogdon merits far more credit than blame on all of the above. The senior's hitting 40 percent of his 3s while posting a career-low turnover rate as the Cavaliers' primary scorer. And as for Tony Bennett's defense, Darion Atkins isn't walking through that door but when opponents cool off just a bit from the perimeter, the Hoos may start to look a bit more Virginia-like.

15. Domantas Sabonis, Gonzaga Bulldogs
Sophomore | Forward



Nothing gives coaches peace of mind quite like a foul-drawing big man who can knock down free throws, and Sabonis has beoame a fully-formed 82 percent shooter at the line (up from 66 in 2014-15). At 6-foot-11 the Zags' big man doesn't block shots, but with Przemek Karnowski out for the season Sabonis is getting minutes and post touches in abundance. He recently posted 36-16 and 35-14 double-doubles against Tennessee and San Francisco, respectively.

16. A.J. Hammons, Purdue Boilermakers
Senior | Center



Technically Isaac Haas is the 7-foot starter in West Lafayette, while the 7-foot Hammons comes off the bench. Nevertheless, Hammons holds a slight edge in minutes and it's what he does with that playing time that has landed a "reserve" in this august company. Matt Painter's senior is near-automatic on post scoring chances, and his elite defensive rebounding rate would likely be even higher if he didn't have Caleb Swanigan as a teammate. Hammons also blocks a higher percentage of opponents' attempts while fouling less than Haas.

17. Gary Payton II, Oregon State Beavers
Senior | Guard



Payton's steal rate has dropped from its D-I-best zenith last season, but his assist rate has increased -- all of which may speak to the point guard's expanded responsibilities as a senior on offense. He is now the Beavers' featured scorer, and in that role Payton has become strikingly proficient at getting himself to and converting at the rim while nevertheless continuing to struggle at the line (62 percent). Both traits were very much in evidence in Oregon State's loss to Stanford in Corvallis this week, as Payton connected on 9-of-11 2s but shot just 4-of-10 on his free throws.

18. Perry Ellis, Kansas Jayhawks
Senior | Forward



I've already sung Wayne Selden's praises, and rightfully so. (See above.) But without the possessions used and shots attempted by an efficient first option like Ellis, a season like Selden's very likely doesn't play out in the same statistically immaculate fashion. As usual, Ellis is converting his looks inside the arc and making just enough 3s (about one per game) to remind his coach that he can do so. What's new and unusual this season, however, is that the senior is posting career-bests for both free throw accuracy (80 percent) and turnover rate (9,7 percent of possessions).

19. Caris LeVert, Michigan Wolverines
Senior | Guard



LeVert arrived in Ann Arbor as part of a recruiting class that included Mitch McGary, Glenn Robinson and Nik Stauskas. Now, as a senior, John Beilein's combo guard has put all of the pieces together. (With the possible exception ofgood health.) LeVert's turnover rate has dropped to what hoops analysts in white lab coats like to term "effective zero" (24 giveaways all season in 748 personal possessions), and he's nearly doubled the percentage of his attempts that occur at the rim.

20. Josh Hart, Villanova Wildcats
Junior | Guard



Say this for Villanova coach Jay Wright, he consistently gets exceptional inside-outside production on offense from high-possession-usage guys who are 6-foot-5 or 6-foot-6. The same assembly line that brought us uncannily effective scorers like James Bell and Darrun Hilliard has now produced Hart. Maybe the junior's extreme shooting percentages (40 percent outside the arc, 66 percent inside it) will correct toward normalcy, but for now you're looking at possibly the most potent weapon on one of the nation's top offenses.

21. Yogi Ferrell, Indiana Hoosiers
Senior | Guard



Ferrell's turnover rate has ticked slightly upward this season, but in every other respect he's having the kind of capstone senior campaign that you'd expect from a four-year starter. More will be asked of Tom Crean's point guard now that James Blackmon Jr. is out for the season. This strikes me as the kind of development that, while clearly detrimental for the Hoosiers as a team, could nevertheless trigger some individual heroics from a resourceful senior.

22. Jamal Murray, Kentucky Wildcats
Freshman | Guard



Murray has provided Kentucky's only credible perimeter threat during this odd interlude where Tyler Ulis has suddenly gone (very) cold from outside. And while on paper Murray's 2-point percentage is nothing to write home about, that number could improve as more basketball is played. In SEC play, for example, Murray's already off to a 10-of-17 start inside the arc.

23. Diamond Stone, Maryland Terrapins
Freshman | Center



I realize I'm risking "Ben Simmons is not LeBron James"-brand wrath here, but I've been struck with how similar Stone's stat line is -- so far -- to what DeMarcus Cousins posted at Kentucky in 2009-10. Both players are to be found in the low 20s in terms of minutes; Cousins drew more fouls, but Stone is, at this point, a far better shooter at the line. Otherwise the numbers line up to an almost uncanny degree.

24. Damion Lee, Louisville Cardinals
Senior | Guard



Usually when a graduate transfer announces that he will relocate from a mid-major to a blue-chip program, there's a flurry of fevered "big get"-variety coverage followed by a somewhat more mundane reality. Lee is the exception to that rule, for there's nothing mundane to be seen here. The onetime Drexel star is the effective centerpiece of a surprisingly productive Louisville offense. Lee's best game was his 27-point effort in the Cardinals' 75-73 loss at Kentucky. The senior went 9-of-10 that day at the line, which, coincidentally, matches his season percentage there exactly.

25. Jameel Warney, Stony Brook Seawolves
Senior | Forward





With all due respect to John Brown's body of work (and this may be the year we see him in the NCAA tournament), the High Point star was edged out for this spot by Warney. At 6-foot-8 and 255 pounds, Warney's a disruptive but low-foul shot-blocker who connects on 60 percent of his 2s as a co-featured scorer alongside guard Carson Puriefoy. With an inside-outside duo like that, the Seawolves have a good shot at playing in their first ever NCAA tournament.

 

[ReturnOfJudah]

@Skooby

Thanks bro

 

[954UAlreadyknow]

NBA's most disappointing rookies, sophomores

 

[Skooby]

NBA's most disappointing rookies, sophomores

The most disappointing rookies and sophomores this season



Most rookies don't help their teams win. And many players -- including the great Kevin Durant -- have also failed to make a positive impact in Year 2.

At the same time, we want to see lottery picks demonstrate that they are putting it together and fulfilling the hopes that teams and fans hold for them.

Today we'll look at seven highly-touted rookies and sophomores who've been particularly disappointing during the first half of the 2015-16 campaign. (In Part II, we'll examine MVP candidates and former MVPs who've failed to live up to expectations.)




Struggling rookies


Rocky start in Philly: Jahlil Okafor

The Philadelphia 76ers have been woeful throughout Sam Hinkie's tenure as general manager. And the play of Jahlil Okafor, the No. 3 pick in the 2015 draft, is one reason we're now witnessing the third straight season of Hinkie Era woe.



ORIGINS OF RPM
Real plus-minus (RPM) was developed by Jeremias Engelmann, formerly of the Phoenix Suns, in consultation with Steve Ilardi, University of Kansas psychology professor and former NBA consultant.

It follows the development of adjusted plus-minus (APM) by several analysts and regularized adjusted plus-minus (RAPM) by Joe Sill.

RPM reflects enhancements to RAPM by Engelmann, among them the use of Bayesian priors, aging curves, score of the game and extensive out-of-sample testing to improve RPM's predictive accuracy.





While Okafor is averaging nearly 20 points and nine boards per 36 minutes of play, those numbers are the NBA equivalent of empty calories. Philly has been outscored by a staggering 19.2 points per 100 possessions with Okafor on the court.

If any team played an entire season that poorly, it would shatter the all-time record for futility.

And yet with Okafor on the bench, the Sixers have actually put up a respectable net efficiency of -2.5, a bit better than this year's Washington Wizards. So it's perhaps no surprise that Okafor currently ranks dead last in Real Plus-Minus (with a -6.90 RPM) among all active players.



NBA-ready or not: Emmanuel Mudiay

Mudiay, who skipped college to play professional ball last year in China, was scouted as a more NBA-ready prospect than the typical one-and-done freshman. But it has been a rough adjustment for the Denver rookie so far.

The Nuggets' young point guard has put up by far the lowest true shooting percentage (38.0) of any player in the league, and he has coughed up a devastating number of turnovers -- 4.9 per 36 minutes on the court.

Not only has he compiled the worst offensive RPM (-4.65) of any NBA point guard, but Mudiay's total RPM (-6.15) value exceeds that of only one other player this year: Jahlil Okafor.


Not so super: Mario Hezonja

When the Orlando Magic tabbed Hezonja with the fifth pick of the 2015 draft, they presumably had a player who could immediately strengthen their wing rotation. After all, the 6-foot-8 Croatian had just logged two seasons of solid Euroleague play, and he was a year older than one-and-done prospects like D'Angelo Russell.

But Hezonja hasn't looked much like "Super Mario" in the early going.

While Magic coach Scott Skiles has dutifully played him in 34 of 37 games thus far, Hezonja's on-court impact has been a big net negative. In fact, his offensive RPM (-1.56) and defensive RPM (-2.01) both suggest a level of play below that of the mythical "replacement player."

Offensively, Hezonja has been a turnover machine, giving up the ball on 21.1 percent of all the possessions he has used (one of the highest turnover rates in the league). And although his 3-point shooting stroke is just as sweet as advertised -- he has converted on 41.1 percent from 3-point range -- he has struggled to find other ways to contribute.

Touted as an elite dunker out of FC Barcelona, Super Mario has thrown it down only four times all season. He has also shown a lackluster ability to get to the line, and he's not doing much to set up his teammates, either.

In fairness, though, Hezonja has been averaging only 13 minutes per game for Orlando -- and has even been asked to play out of position on occasion as a point guard off the bench -- so it's perhaps no surprise that he's still finding his way.





Slumping sophomores



No defense: Andrew Wiggins

After winning Rookie of the Year, Andrew Wiggins is already regarded as a star by fans and some NBA personnel, despite some early concerns in the analytics community. Count us among the few holdouts not yet ready to elevate Wiggins to the NBA pantheon.

For starters, many of his key stats have actually dropped from his rookie campaign.

Wiggins is shooting only 43.7 percent from the floor this season and has clicked on just 24.7 percent of shots from 3-point range (down from 31.0 percent a year ago).

Rebounds? Also down. Assists? Down. Blocks? Down. True shooting percentage? You get the idea.

In fact, the Wolves have actually played better this season -- with a better net efficiency -- without Wiggins on the court. And his RPM impact, currently -4.32, ranks a mere 84th among 88 NBA 2-guards.

What's worse, his defense was supposed to be a strong suit, but for the second straight year, it has been a weakness. In defensive RPM, he's actually next-to-last in the league among shooting guards, at -3.76.

Because he's just 20 years old, Wiggins still has plenty of time to figure it out. But if a player's greatness hinges on his ability to make his team more effective on the court, Wiggins has yet to arrive.

One-trick Laker: Julius Randle

Randle is another sophomore who's not yet helping his team win. While he's already a beast on the boards -- grabbing nearly 13 rebounds per 36 minutes -- that's about where his contributions end.

Notably, Randle has struggled to put the ball in the hoop. His 40.9 effective field goal percentage is among the lowest of any NBA power forward, as is his paltry 45.8 true shooting percentage (far below the 53.5 league average). His offensive RPM (-3.19) ranks near the bottom of the league as well.

The Lakers have also played some of their worst defense with Randle on the court. Given his lackluster block rate thus far, only 0.6 per 36 minutes, it's perhaps reasonable to wonder if Randle will ever develop into an above-average interior defender.



Another big problem in Philly: Nerlens Noel

Rivaling Okafor in negative plus-minus impact is Noel, Jahlil's fellow Philadelphia big man. In his sophomore season (after missing the entire 2013-14 season with a knee injury), Noel has actually seen a falloff on multiple fronts.

While the Philly center demonstrated elite defensive proficiency last year -- and averaged over two blocks and two steals per 36 minutes of play -- he has been less effective this season, perhaps due to small injuries and the challenges of playing next to Okafor.

In a particularly telling development, Noel's block rate has fallen off about 40 percent, and his defensive RPM impact is down nearly two points per 100 possessions.

Of course, defense isn't Noel's biggest problem. His offensive RPM of -5.45 is the absolute worst among all NBA big men. In fact, the 76ers score only 88 points per 100 possessions when Noel is on the court, the lowest offensive rating on record for a player with at least 700 on-court minutes.



Yet another subpar Sixer: Nik Stauskas

It may be unseemly at this point to add another young Philadelphia player to our "All-Disappointment Team." But given the Sixers' abysmal 4-34 showing this season, it's perhaps no surprise that they dominate the category.

Stauskas, the 8th pick in the 2014 draft, was acquired from the Sacramento Kings last summer in a trade that most observers felt the 76ers won, in part because Philly also acquired future draft rights in multiple years.

But if the Sixers were counting on Stauskas, the former lottery pick hasn't exactly delivered in Philly. He has actually played worse in many ways than he did in his erratic rookie outing with the Kings last year -- and that's saying something.

Known for his potential as a shooter and passer, he's converting only 35.3 percent of FG attempts and racking up only 1.7 assists in 23 minutes per game.

The advanced stats are even more unflattering: 46.5 true shooting percentage (ranked 59th of 66 NBA shooting guards), 16.7 usage rate (far below league average), -3.15 offensive RPM and -2.52 defensive RPM.

Stauskas' -5.67 total RPM is easily the worst of any non-rookie this season. In fact, Philly would probably be on track for a few more wins this season if they had never added Stauskas to their roster.

Of course, for a team that has been more interested in trying out young talent than winning games, at least Stauskas' struggles have a silver lining -- increasing Philadelphia's odds in the upcoming Ben Simmons lottery (aka, the 2016 NBA draft).

 

[TrillCauleyStein]

Pelton: Did Cavs win the Love-Wiggins trade?
thank you skooby for this.

 

[Skooby]

Pelton: Did Cavs win the Love-Wiggins trade?
thank you skooby for this.

Did the Cavaliers win the Andrew Wiggins-Kevin Love trade?
The trade the Cleveland Cavaliers and Minnesota Timberwolves made 17 months ago will go down as one of the most fascinating in NBA history. The deal, headlined by Kevin Love going to Cleveland and Andrew Wiggins to Minnesota, involved the eventual Rookie of the Year (Wiggins) and a three-time All-Star in his prime (Love).

A year and a half later, we can still reasonably pose the question: When Cleveland traded Wiggins, the No. 1 overall pick, for Love, did they win or lose the deal?

As the teams prepare to meet tonight in Minneapolis (ESPN 8 p.m. ET), there's no question the Timberwolves would make the trade again, with Wiggins and 2015 top pick Karl-Anthony Towns emerging as the cornerstones of a promising young team.

Despite the potential Wiggins has flashed at age 20, however, the Cavaliers also have to be satisfied with the results of the trade given their very different needs as a team.

What if Wiggins were in Cleveland?
When LeBron James decided to return to the Cavaliers as a free agent weeks after they drafted Wiggins, fans envisioned the two No. 1 picks teaming up on the wing, a la Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen, with Wiggins eventually supplanting James as the team's centerpiece. But the way Wiggins has developed in Minnesota hasn't matched that ideal scenario.


Pelton: One trade the Thunder need to make
The Thunder need a shooting guard, Kevin Pelton writes, and the Grizzlies could help once they admit they're not contenders this season.

• 
  Ford: Ranking 16 best fits for Ben Simmons
  Which NBA team does LSU's Ben Simmons fit best? Chad Ford ranks the teams with a shot at the draft's top prize, from 1 to 16, including the Lakers, Sixers and Celtics.

While Wiggins is ahead of schedule as a scorer, averaging 20.1 points per game in his second season, the rest of his game lags behind. As I've discussed with fellow Insider Chad Ford, Wiggins has yet to translate his immense athleticism into box-score production at the defensive end.

The 6-foot-8 Wiggins is grabbing just 7.3 percent of available defensive rebounds, putting him near the bottom 10 among all players who have seen at least 500 minutes of action, and his steal rate (1.1 per 100 plays) is below average for a shooting guard (1.6). Pippen he is not.

At this stage of his career, Wiggins' best skill is his ability to create his own shot. He's using 28.6 percent of the Timberwolves' plays to attempt a shot, get to the foul line or commit a turnover, the highest usage rate for a second-year player since 2012-13, according to Basketball-Reference.com. But Wiggins hasn't been a particularly efficient scorer, making just 46.6 percent of his 2-point attempts and 23.5 percent of his 3s.

The last thing Cleveland needs, when healthy, is another shot creator. James is one of the league's most efficient creators, and the last sophomore with a higher usage rate than Wiggins just happened to be Cavaliers point guard Kyrie Irving. Because of their presence, Love has seen his own usage rate dip from 28.8 percent his final season in Minnesota to 21.7 percent in 2014-15 and 23.5 percent so far this season.

A smaller role would help Wiggins' efficiency, to some extent, but it wouldn't highlight his strengths. For the most part, Cleveland's other wing players besides James have been used as spot-up shooters, and Wiggins struggles in that role.

According to Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats, 38 percent of plays involving the Cavaliers' non-LeBron wings have come in spot-up situations, and they've collectively posted an effective field-goal percentage (eFG, which weights 3-pointers as 1.5 field goals to reflect their added value) of 57.7 percent on those shots.

By contrast, just eight percent of Wiggins' plays have been spot-up attempts, and he's got a dismal 35.6 percent eFG on those plays.

Wiggins in Cleveland wouldn't have been all bad, of course. He already has proved to be an excellent post-up scorer, shooting 48.6 percent in post opportunities, according to Synergy, and could have taken advantage of smaller defenders playing shooting guard next to James.

Still, the developing Wiggins doesn't fit what the Cavaliers need from their wing players -- floor spacing and perimeter defense -- nearly as well as lesser talents like Iman Shumpert and J.R. Smith.

How does Love fit in?
Meanwhile, for all the concern about how Love has fit in (or fit out), Cleveland has been rolling along. Since David Blatt went to a lineup with a healthy Irving at point guard and Tristan Thompson at center in place of Timofey Mozgov, the Cavaliers are 5-0 and the starters are outscoring opponents by 20.1 points per 100 possessions, per NBA.com/Stats.

More generally, Cleveland has been outstanding when Love plays with Thompson this season, posting a plus-14.1 net rating per 100 possessions -- far better than the Cavaliers' plus-1.0 net rating when Love plays with Mozgov. As impressive, Love-Thompson lineups have allowed just 98.3 points per 100 possessions, a rate that would put them fourth in the league. (Cleveland ranks seventh overall in defensive rating.)

There's one lineup combination that has been even better for the Cavaliers this season: Love at center and James at power forward. That combo has outscored opponents by an incredible 28.9 points per 100 possessions in 70 minutes, posting a 122.9 offensive rating and, more remarkably, a stout 94.0 defensive rating.

It remains to be seen how effective Love at center can be over longer stretches, given his limitations as a rim protector, but it makes sense that a smaller lineup would create better looks for Cleveland on offense.

Though Love hasn't been an outstanding 3-point shooter since joining the Cavaliers, making 36.6 percent of his attempts the past season and a half, opponents still must respect his outside shooting. That has opened things up for James, in particular. Each of the past two seasons, James has shot much more accurately in terms of effective field-goal percentage with Love on the court.

LeBron Needs Love
SEASON EFG WITH LOVE EFG WITHOUT
2014-15 .555 .497
2015-16 .552 .457
For the same reason Wiggins' shot creation wouldn't be as valuable in Cleveland, Love is never going to maximize his individual skills playing with James and Irving. But that's true almost any time that star players team up, and Love brings enough complementary skills to the table that he can still be dangerous in a smaller role.

That's what distinguishes him from the current version of Wiggins, and that's what makes both Cleveland and Minnesota winners of the trade.

 

[TrillCauleyStein]

thx G..I play fantasy so these would be appreciated:
Trend Watch: Marc Gasol's increased production
Why Green is fantasy's most versatile player

 

[Skooby]

thx G..I play fantasy so these would be appreciated:
Trend Watch: Marc Gasol's increased production
Why Green is fantasy's most versatile player

Trend Watch: Marc Gasol's increased production



As usual, let's look at three players who seem a little different from what we thought they'd be and ask: Is this sustainable? Or, if the pattern is bad: Is this reversible?




Memphis Grizzlies


What's up?

After a slow start to the season, Gasol has taken on more offensive responsibility for the Grizzlies since the beginning of December. Mostly that's been a good thing, though his shooting over two games to start the new year has been off.

Why is this happening?

While it's probably an oversimplification, the most likely reason for Gasol's heightened usage rate (21.3 percent through Nov. 30, 25.1 percent since) is a lightening of the load for longtime frontcourt mate New Orleans Pelicans[/paste:font]


What's up?

We didn't see Evans in action until Dec. 1. With his recovery from knee surgery, the Pelicans floundered. After a brief period of re-acclimation, Evans and the Pelicans flourished for most of last month. Over one nine-game stretch, he averaged 17 points, 6.2 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 1.7 steals and even shot 41.9 percent from 3-point range. The Pelicans were an average of six points per game better with him on the floor during that span and were outscored with Evans playing just once. For the season he's the only New Orleans player with a positive plus-minus rating, and yes, that includes Brooklyn Nets[/paste:font]


What's up?

With an 8.9 PER, Johnson has looked like a productive, full-time player. He's another guy in his 15th season. During the seasons that span his career, no one -- not Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant or Paul Pierce -- has logged more minutes. This is a picture that makes sense: aged player, heavy mileage, career decline. If there were a golden ratio to be discovered in sports, this would fit its parameter.

Or it would for everybody but, apparently, Brooklyn coach Lionel Hollins. Johnson has started all 34 games for the Nets and has played 34 minutes per outing. He ranks 19th in the league in total minutes. There's a Churchill-esque quote to be had in there somewhere about so many and so few, but we'll just leave it alone.

Why is this happening?

He's old. And, lately, Johnson has been nursing a quad injury that threatens to (finally) take him out of the lineup. His minutes of late have actually been up, so it might be a tender mercy to let him sit for a while. The Nets lack wing options, but when you're that far under replacement, depth issues aren't really the problem.

Is this a thing?

Johnson could well have something to offer a good team in the right role. Neither of those things -- good team, right role -- is to be found currently in Brooklyn. The Nets aren't playing for anything. As their first pick in June belongs to the Celtics, the only real organizational motivation for Brooklyn right now is to win enough games to minimize the chances for a catastrophic scenario in which Boston ends up with Ben Simmons.

Verdict?

Hopefully Johnson gets a chance to rest and recompose himself, as he should be a sought-after asset around the trade deadline if a good team can find a way to absorb his unwieldy $24.9 million cap number for this season.

But whether or not that happens is all but irrelevant in a fantasy sense. If Johnson remains in Brooklyn and remains overused, his production is highly unlikely to be playable, either in a raw sense or in terms of efficiency. If he is traded, it will be to play a role that might have plenty of real-world value but would have only a minimal impact in the fantasy realm.




Why Draymond Green is the most versatile player in fantasy basketball

Versatility. It's a word that gets tossed around a lot in the game of basketball. We love players who not only shoot and score but also dribble, pass, rebound and defend. Stars do all these things. Superstars do them all while also being elite scorers.


But there's another part of versatility that tends to get overlooked, and that's the ability to do it over and over and over again, game after game, month after month, season after season.

In fantasy basketball, the game's best versatile players are not only the ones who contribute to the most categories but the ones who do it the most consistently.


That's what has made LeBron James and Kevin Durant top fantasy options for the past decade. But what about this season? Are James and Durant still the most versatile players to build your fantasy lineups around?

As we look at the top 15 players on ESPN's Player Rater entering Thursday, we see that virtually every player impacts the game in many ways:

Among point guards, there are Stephen Curry (1), Russell Westbrook (2), Kyle Lowry (5), John Wall (11) and Kemba Walker (15).

James Harden (3) is the lone shooting guard.

Small forwards include Kawhi Leonard (4), Durant (6), Paul George (7) and James (14).

Draymond Green (8), Paul Millsap (9) and Anthony Davis (10) round out the power forwards.

And Karl-Anthony Towns (12) and Hassan Whiteside (13) represent the centers on the list.

No matter who you look at, though, you can find at least one category in which they don't contribute:

• Curry doesn't block shots and turns it over a lot (3.5 turnovers a game).
• The same is true of Westbrook, and he turns it over even more (4.3 per game).
• Harden is shooting less than 42 percent from the field, doesn't get many blocks and turns it over 4.6 times a game.
• Leonard is one of the most steady, but averages less than three assists and one block per game.
• Lowry doesn't block shots (0.6 BPG) and is shooting even worse (41.3 percent) than Harden from the field.
• Durant's shooting percentages are hard to beat, but his steals are under one per game.
• George doesn't block shots (0.2 BPG) and is shooting 41.8 percent from the field.
• Millsap shoots 3s, but makes less than one per game (0.8).
• Davis averages only 1.6 assists per game and is a major durability risk.
• Wall turns it over 4.3 times per game and isn't much of a shot-blocker (0.7 BPG) or efficient shooter (42.9 percent).
• Towns is a non-factor in steals (0.6 SPG) and assists (1.1 APG).
• Whiteside shoots 53.7 percent from the free throw line and averages only 0.5 steals per game.
• James is slightly worse than Durant across the board, and blocks less than one shot per game (0.7 BPG).
• Walker doesn't get many assists for a point guard (4.9 APG) and blocks less than half a shot per game (0.4 BPG) for his career.

And then there's Draymond Green: 14.8 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 7.4 APG, 1.4 BPG, 1.3 SPG, 1.6 3PG, 46.3 FG%, 69.5 FT%

The only fault you can find in Green's game right now is his free throw shooting, but even that is minimized by the fact that he only gets to the line 4.0 times per game. It means, on average, he is missing only 1.2 free throws per game.

Does this make Green the most versatile player in fantasy basketball this season?

No matter how you look at it, he's certainly in the conversation along with Durant, James and Millsap, a player whose numbers are surprisingly good (18.3 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.2 BPG, 1.9 SPG, 0.8 3PG, 47.6 FG%, 77.3 FT%).

These four guys help you in virtually every category, and even contribute in the categories where they aren't top-notch.

If I had to rank them right now, I'd probably go:

1. Durant
2. Green
3. James
4. Millsap

But there are other factors to consider here. We talked earlier about consistency, and with that comes durability. Durant and James are both riskier options than Green as far as that goes. Durant has been struck by several injuries over the past two seasons, and James gets the occasional night off to prevent him from wearing down at this stage in his career. Millsap, meanwhile, also gets the occasional night off and hasn't played more than 74 games in either of the past two seasons in Atlanta.

When you factor in how durable Green has been, having played in all 35 games this season and 79 or more in each of his first three NBA seasons, and also consider his reputation as the best "energy player" in the league, you just might have to give the Warriors power forward the nod as the most versatile player in fantasy basketball this season.

Green does it all, every night, all season long.

 

[TrillCauleyStein]

Coaches Roundtable: Best team in the Big Ten?

 

[Skooby]

Coaches Roundtable: Best team in the Big Ten?

Coaches Roundtable: Best team in the Big Ten?

Among the three of them, Seth Greenberg, Fran Fraschilla and Dan Dakich have more than 40 years of head coaching experience at the Division I level. Each week they get together to discuss the hottest topics in college basketball.



1. The Big Ten appears to be wide-open. Which team is the conference's best at this juncture?

Dakich: Right now, it's Iowa. You have to go by how you play, and Saturday night at Purdue, Mackey Arena was ridiculously loud and emotional. Purdue played great, but Iowa hung in there and won the game. I don't think Michigan State is nearly as good as it has been in the past, particularly without Denzel Valentine. For some reason, and I don't know exactly what it is, I'm not convinced by Maryland. Purdue is really good, but right now, man, Iowa beat Michigan State and they won at Purdue. That's pretty good.



The other team playing really well -- and Thursday's game at Purdue will be really interesting -- is Michigan. The two teams playing the best are Michigan and Iowa, but Iowa is the best team based on what the Hawkeyes have done.

Fraschilla: I've seen Iowa play, and I really like who they've got. I'm a big Jarrod Uthoff fan, and he went off again on Tuesday against Nebraska. And I still think Michigan State will end up being the best team by the end of the season. But the best team right now is Maryland. I like everything about them. Mark Turgeon does not overcoach. They have a good system. I absolutely love the way Melo Trimble has transformed himself from a scorer to a playmaker. Rasheed Sulaimon has fit in better than I thought he would. I love their size inside. They have the most depth in the league. They're about as good as we thought they could be. The schedule in the Big Ten is unbalanced, and they face Michigan State only once (Jan. 23 on the road).

Greenberg: Right now, today, Iowa is special, particularly on offense. Having said that, I think the best team in the Big Ten, in the big picture, is going to be Michigan State. This injury to Valentine has forced Eron Harris to get a little bit better. He doesn't defend the way he needs to, but he's gained some confidence. Bryn Forbes has made some big shots. Other guys have had to step up, which will make them better when Valentine comes back. Deyonta Davis is only going to get better. He does things you can't teach. The ball finds him off the glass. He makes crazy shots. Michigan State is going to continue to grow and develop.



I look at things in tiers. And I think the teams we've mentioned are in that top tier. But I'm intrigued by Ohio State. They've won six games in a row. The win over Kentucky isn't maybe what people thought it was at the time, but this team has started to develop an identity. They've started to get some Thad Matta toughness. You can see they've improved significantly. And then Michigan is so hard to play against.



Fraschilla: With some of these teams that are playing better, it might be a little bit of fool's gold. When you open the season as Indiana and Ohio State did, I don't know how good they'll be a month from now. I would caution myself to not get too excited about a team like Ohio State. The top of the league is going to go through East Lansing and College Park. And Iowa is a dangerous team.



2. Brice Johnson's 39-point, 23-rebound effort in the win at Florida State has only been matched by Blake Griffin and Kevin Durant. How does this type of production change North Carolina?






Fraschilla: Roy Williams' half-court offense has always been about playing inside-out with two post players if they can't score in transition. Given that Johnson finally, after much cajoling from the coaching staff, has stepped up and become a more consistent version of what we expected three years ago, I think it bodes well for when Kennedy Meeks returns from injury. Meeks might be the better pro prospect, but the two of them together will take a lot of heat off the guards. The Achilles heel for North Carolina is their shooting. With Marcus Paige healthy and those two guys inside, it takes a lot of heat off Justin Jackson and Joel Berry II.



Greenberg: It's really simple. Coach Williams now has something to hold Johnson accountable to. We always talk about potential with Johnson, but we also talk about how you don't know which version of him you're going to get. Since Meeks has been injured, Johnson has been consistent. Now Williams has an example. He can say, "This is who you need to be every night whether Meeks is here or not." It's the same with Isaiah Hicks, who has been very good. This is another example of a team evolving and getting better because of an injury. To me, Carolina is the most talented team in the country when engaged defensively. With Johnson playing at this level, it kicks it up a notch.



Dakich: The only thing I can add to that is a guy like Johnson doing what he did -- and I haven't been impressed with their shooting -- but we all know when you have offensive rebounders, all of a sudden you don't feel as though you have to make every shot because you're not limited to one per trip. You loosen up as a shooter. Johnson is not going to put up those kind of numbers every night, but there's no reason he shouldn't get 10 rebounds a game. If North Carolina is shooting it well, you have a team that can really play.



3. If you have to pick one game to watch this weekend, which is it and why?






Dakich: I'm going to beat Fran to this, but I like Texas Tech at home against Kansas (Saturday, 9 p.m. ET, ESPNU). I like Richard Pitino, but we're all ex-coaches. How great for (Texas Tech's) Tubby Smith was it to beat Minnesota (his former team) earlier this season? I've always been a fan of Smith, and I've always thought that he got a really bad deal at Minnesota. I'm rooting for Tubby. The Red Raiders are 11-2. They've beaten Texas. Kansas is the kind of team that will come off a big win and play well the next night. Traditional powers don't get that status without being able to do that. Having said that, they're still kids, and going to Texas Tech isn't easy. I think that's going to be a fun atmosphere.



Fraschilla: The one intriguing Big 12 storyline aside from the two juggernauts at the top is how good Texas Tech is. It's rare that Kansas is not up for a game, but they've lost in Lubbock a number of times under coach Bill Self (most recently in 2009). He'll have them ready, but human nature is what it is. This will be a hard game for Kansas because they have to go to West Virginia next. I'm going to be really interested to see what kind of energy Kansas brings to Texas Tech. We all know that sometimes you're just glad to get out of a place with a one-point win. That's the type of game it will be on Saturday.



Greenberg: There's no great team this year, but we're going to have great games. Villanova-Butler is an important game because the Bulldogs have to show they can defend. But we would be remiss not to mention the return of Jim Boeheim with Syracuse against North Carolina. The reality is, whether it's Boeheim of Mike Hopkins, this team has flaws. The Orange don't rebound, live on the 3-pointer and have no inside offense.

 

[TrillCauleyStein]

Recruiting Q&A: West Virginia coach Bob Huggins
Behind the bracket: The Pac-12 is playing the numbers game
Five storylines to watch at Hoophall Classic
Five Up, Five Down: Why Dave Rice didn't survive at UNLV

 

[GreatestLaker]

@Skooby

Ford-Pelton: Randle a future Lakers star?

Ford: Ranking 16 best fits for Ben Simmons


Top 10 NBA sophs ranked by future potential

Ford-Pelton: Ranking NBA rookies by potential

 

[TrillCauleyStein]

ay skooby..me first..I posted before him..

 

[Skooby]

@Skooby

Ford-Pelton: Randle a future Lakers star?

Ford: Ranking 16 best fits for Ben Simmons


Top 10 NBA sophs ranked by future potential

Ford-Pelton: Ranking NBA rookies by potential

Are Julius Randle and Jordan Clarkson future Lakers stars?

Why isn't Julius Randle a top-10 sophomore?
Chad Ford: Last week we tackled our top 10 sophomores and -- controversially, if you believe our Twitter followers -- left Lakers forward Julius Randle out of our top 10.

Randle was the No. 7 pick in the draft in 2014 and was regarded as a top-two or top-three pick before his freshman season at Kentucky. At least one draft expert even said he'd take Randle No. 1 over Andrew Wiggins.

Randle is off to a solid start on his first real season (he had a season-ending injury on opening night of his rookie campaign), averaging 11 points per game and 9.5 rebounds for the Lakers. But he's shooting only 41 percent from the field and has played questionable defense all season -- leading head coach Byron Scott to sit him often in favor of rookie Larry Nance Jr.

Scott and Randle have sparred in the media in recent days, and Scott said Randle needs to grow up. Randle says he feels as if he's being singled out on a team that has been filled with poor performers.

So, Kevin, why did you leave him out of your top 10?

Kevin Pelton: Because I remembered Jusuf Nurkic qualified for the list despite not playing all season. Randle was originally in my 10th spot, so he wasn't far off.

I've been pleasantly surprised by his rebounding. He's pulling down 29.5 percent of all available defensive rebounds, putting him in the league's top 10. Perhaps more important, the Lakers have been much better on the glass with Randle on the court, suggesting he's not just stealing rebounds from his teammates. Add in Randle's ability to initiate the fast break after grabbing a rebound and that's useful.

Randle's issues have actually been more on the offensive end. He's shooting only 41.3 percent on 2-point attempts and his shot chart shows his problems, from both close range and further out. Randle is barely making half of his attempts within three feet (51.2 percent), struggling to score over length. Per NBAminer.com, the 35 times he has had his shot blocked put him in the league's top 20 in that undesirable category.

And outside 10 feet, Randle has shot 23.1 percent (21-91), according to Basketball Reference.

Chad, is there hope for him to become an efficient scorer?



Will Randle improve his weaknesses?
Ford: So, in short, you're a Laker hater.

I too had Randle just outside my top 10. He was the next guy in. But I don't think that will pacify Lakers fans. They want a superstar to build around and Randle shows enough flashes as a rebounder and ball handler in the open court to give them hope. I think that the long-term hope is Randle will start hitting jump shots. In high school, scouts thought of him as a very advanced offensive player with the ability to stretch the floor and put it on the deck.

Kentucky primarily used Randle in the low post, but his lack of elite size and explosiveness meant he struggled to finish. Shot blockers loved him in college.

So I think the hope has been that Randle would thrive in the NBA, given the predilection for 4s who can space the floor. But as you've pointed out, not only is he continuing to struggle at the rim, he's also missing almost 80 percent of his shots from beyond 10 feet.

Randle is going to have to improve at least one of those numbers to be an effective player in the NBA. Given his size limitations, I don't think it will be him scoring at the rim.

But I'm also concerned about him on the defensive end. Other than rebounding, I don't see much effort. I'm sure you remember wringing your hands a bit during the draft over Randle's painfully low steal rate. Do you see him ever turning into potentially an elite defender?

Pelton: Elite? I'd settle for average, but there is reason to expect that as a possibility.

Believe it or not, Randle is actually coming up with steals at an above-average rate for a power forward. And while he rarely blocks shots, opponents have shot a below-average 50 percent against Randle inside five feet, according to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats.

ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) still rates him as a below-average defender because the Lakers are allowing 4.3 more points per 100 possessions with Randle on the court, but he's close enough to potentially get to average with experience.

We heard a few comps for Randle during the draft process, most notably Zach Randolph. Having seen him in the NBA for a couple of months now, who does Randle remind you of, Chad?

Does Randle compare to star players?
Ford: Before the draft, Randolph and to a lesser extent Paul Millsap were the comps. I'm not confident he can hit either of those ceilings, which leads me to guys like Tristan Thompson (the rebounding!), J.J. Hickson and possiblyJared Sullinger.

I'm sure you've spit out some more accurate ones.

Pelton: You hit on several of the names my SCHOENE projection system has as comparisons for Randle. Sullinger and Thompson are both in the top 10 and Hickson and Randolph in the top 20.

SCHOENE's best comp is Drew Gooden, which I think makes a lot of sense in terms of lottery pedigree, rebounding prowess and relatively low-percentage shooting. Besides the pre-draft comps, there are a lot of long careers in that group but very few All-Star appearances.

Unless Randle can dramatically improve his shooting and finishing, stardom doesn't seem to be in the cards for him. There's nothing wrong with that -- none of the players drafted after Randle are surefire stars -- but it does dampen the enthusiasm about the Lakers' young core to some extent.

Speaking of which, despite the second-best scoring average among sophomores, Lakers second-round pick Jordan Clarkson didn't make our top 10s either. What do you see in his future?




Evaluating other young Lakers talent
Ford: Clarkson was right behind Randle just outside my top 10. Ideally he's a rotation player who gives your team a scoring punch coming off the bench. That's valuable -- especially because he can play both the one and the two.

But his stellar rookie year might have moved him from underrated to overrated. I see him as a Rodney Stuckey or maybe a Jerryd Bayless type of player down the road.

To me this whole exercise means that, right now, D'Angelo Russell is their only true building block for the future -- unless, that is, Nance has you excited, Kevin. Russell has bounced back from a rough start to really begin to produce.

What do you think of the rest of the Lakers' young talent?

Pelton: I just assumed before the exercise that Clarkson would rank in the top 10 because of how effective he was as a rookie, but when I looked closely at the numbers, I wasn't impressed. Clarkson has never rated well by RPM, and his box-score stats have taken a turn for the worse this season, which is problematic for a 23-year-old player.

While there's certainly still room for Clarkson to develop at that age, when we talk about potential, remember that we're comparing him to what another second-year player like Marcus Smart will become with two more seasons of experience.

I thought taking Nance in the first round was a stretch, and I'm not sure he has done anything to change that opinion. He has provided energy and high-percentage finishing but has been ineffective on the defensive glass and is rarely creating his own shot. I see Nance having an extended career, but primarily as a reserve.

So I think Russell is the only Lakers youngster with a good shot at becoming an above-average starter. That's what makes it so important for them to retain their pick and find another young star in this year's draft.



Ranking Wiggins, Parker and the top 10 sophs by future potential


Which NBA sophomore has the most potential?


Kevin Pelton: Earlier this week, we ranked rookies based on their long-term potential (and touched a few nerves in the process). This time around, let's try doing the same thing with second-year players.

Even though we have a much longer NBA track record to go on, I'm not sure this is any easier. In part because of the injuries that plagued this class as rookies, there are still serious questions about basically every prospect and little separation between them.

That includes my No. 1 pick, Andrew Wiggins. We spent 1,500 words hashing out where Wiggins has excelled and where he needs improvement a couple of weeks ago, so I won't repeat myself here. But whatever you think of Wiggins, it's pretty clear he's the best player from his draft class. Right, Chad?

Chad Ford: You are right on both counts. NBA scouts and execs were very, very high on the draft class of 2014, as was I. So far, primarily because of injuries to many of the top prospects, it has been a disappointment.

And you're right, Wiggins is clearly the No. 1 guy now. As we discussed in the Wiggins edition of Ford-Pelton, he still has major weaknesses. He needs to improve his jump shot and show more as a defender.

But he's a top-20 scorer in the NBA as a sophomore with elite athletic tools. I think he'll only get better.

After Wiggins, however, it's sort of a crap shoot. I felt as though rookies No. 3 through 10 could've been ranked in almost any order in our last piece. I have the same feeling about sophomores No. 2 through 10.

That said, whom do you have at No. 2?



Second-best soph
Pelton: The week of the 2014 draft, I wrote about two prospects in particular. I called Wiggins overrated (the jury is still out, but that projection is not looking so good) and Clint Capela underrated.

One out of two is pretty good, right?

Capela ended up going 25th to the Houston Rockets, but after a year spent mostly in the D-League, he was a contributor off the bench in the playoffs and has carried that over so far this season. As I noted a few weeks ago, his per-minute averages put him in elite company among 21-year-old big men. I'm not sure how much Capela can improve but, like Andre Drummond, his defensive instincts catch up to his athleticism.

Who's No. 2 for you?

Ford: It's pretty hard to argue with Capela at No. 2 based on his production this season. He has the second-highest PER of any of the top sophomores.

He's in my top five, but I think several prospects, once they get healthy, will ultimately prove to be more valuable than Capela. Because we are talking about not just past production, but future potential as well, my choice is Jabari Parker.

An ACL injury likely kept him from winning Rookie of the Year honors. He's miscast in Milwaukee as a power forward in my opinion, but he has the makings of a very, very good offensive player.

Defense? That's a major issue, but it seems like you get one or the other with most of these sophomores, not both.

Pelton: It's so tough to evaluate Parker coming off his torn ACL because it's unclear how much of his step back this season is temporary and what might represent athleticism was lost to the injury. So I might be underrating him, but I'm concerned that Parker hasn't made a 3 all year and he already looks like a poor defender at power forward. As a result, he's much lower on my list.