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Ranking the top prospects (26-50)
26 Kevin Gausman
Age: 22 (DOB: Jan. 6, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '12 Level: A (Frederick)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM5
IP15
W0
L1
ERA3.60
SO13
BB1
H11
HR3
BAA.200
Gausman was the fourth overall pick in the 2012 draft as a draft-eligible sophomore out of LSU. He started the year unevenly but threw better in the second half as LSU coaches got him to focus on throwing his slider instead of his below-average curveball.
He will sit 93-97 and can touch 99, but his improved command of the pitch was a big reason he took a giant leap forward in 2012. The other reason was that above-average slider, 82-86 with hard downward break, the breaking ball he needed to be more effective against right-handed hitters. He always had a plus changeup at 83-86 with strong fading action, giving him a true three-pitch mix where he could peak with three grade-60 pitches. Gausman's delivery is much cleaner than it was in high school, starting with a very high leg kick, staying over the rubber well with a strong finishing over his front side.
There are a handful of things to clear for him to project as a No. 1 starter, notably keeping the fastball out of the middle of the plate in hitters' counts, but I could safely project him as a No. 2 guy who's among the top 25 or so starters in his league.
27 Kyle Zimmer
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 13, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '12 Level: A (Kane County)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM9
IP39.2
W3
L3
ERA2.04
SO42
BB8
H39
HR1
BAA.267
The University of San Francisco product was the biggest "pop-up guy" in last year's draft -- meaning he shot quickly up draft boards -- showing a 94-98 mph fastball in a short start on the college season's first day and never really letting up until a hamstring injury slowed him later in the spring.
A converted position player who has a shockingly clean and simple delivery, Zimmer will pitch more at 92-96 every fifth day, with a 79-82 mph curveball that will flash plus and that he can throw for strikes, along with a hard changeup at 83-85 that he'll use to left- and right-handed hitters. I've seen him struggle a little with his release point, but his arm swing is clean and he lands online to the plate, both positives for command and control over the long term. Zimmer's season ended a little early as he had surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow, with no structural damage to the ligament, and he should be good to go for spring training.
I've heard Zimmer compared to some of the best right-handers in the majors, including Justin Verlander, and he's got the best chance of any pitcher in the Royals' system to be the ace they've been seeking for years.
28 Julio Teheran
Age: 22 (DOB: Jan. 27, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '12 Level: Majors (Braves)
2012 ranking: 18
2012 MINORS STATS
GM26
IP131
W7
L9
ERA5.08
SO97
BB43
H146
HR18
BAA.289
Teheran is still just 22 years old, even though he's in his third year on these rankings, sliding a little each year as the adjustments he needs to make don't occur. And in Teheran's defense, it's easier to see a prospect as disappointing when early expectations were so high, even though there are still many positives in his scouting report.
He has an easy arm action that produces plus velocity, up to 97 mph pretty regularly, and he has a plus changeup that makes him more effective against left-handed hitters than right-handed ones. His fastball doesn't have much life, and it's made him homer-prone, while his lack of an average breaking ball has allowed right-handers to square the ball up against him too often, hitting .304/.362/.517 off him in Triple-A.
His arm is quick enough to produce decent break on a curveball or slider, and getting that pitch to be consistently average or better would prevent hitters from sitting on fastballs up in the zone so easily. He throws hard, throws strikes, and has an above-average off-speed pitch, so there's a lot to like here with youth on his side. To reach his potential as a No. 2 or better, though, he'll have to improve that third pitch and keep his fastball down in the zone.
29 Archie Bradley
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 10, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Top '12 Level: A (South Bend)
2012 ranking: 19
2012 MINORS STATS
GM27
IP136
W12
L6
ERA3.84
SO152
BB84
H87
HR6
BAA.181
Bradley's first full year in the minors was solid, but a little below expectations because his command and control were worse than anticipated, which in turn meant he had a harder time working deeper into starts and getting the kind of work he needed.
His raw stuff remains filthy, an easy 94-98 with downhill plane, a wipeout curveball, and the quarterback size and athleticism that made him a top 10 overall pick in 2011. He was more aggressive in the second half of 2011, attacking hitters when ahead in the count but still walking too many hitters.
He needs more reps in 2012 and needs to throw more strikes when behind in the count -- or to just not fall behind so often in the first place -- because the fastball, curveball, and workhorse body could put him at the top of many rotations.
30 Billy Hamilton
Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 9, 1990)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: CF Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '12 Level: A (Pensacola)
2012 ranking: 64
2012 MINORS STATS
GM132
AB512
HR1
RBI45
SB155
SO113
BB86
AVG.311
OBP.410
SLG.420
Hamilton is the fastest man in organized baseball, breaking the single-season stolen base record for any level of pro ball by stealing 155 bases during the regular season, plus 10 more in 17 games in the Arizona Fall League. Now that he has moved off shortstop to center field, his path to an everyday job is much clearer.
At the plate, Hamilton has plenty of bat speed and has become strong enough to avoid having pitchers light him up inside; he drifts over his front side and probably won't ever hit 10 homers in a season, with a little more rotation in his swing when he hits right-handed. He played center in Arizona in the fall and, for a player new to the position, his reads improved very quickly out there. He has the speed to make up for it when his reaction wasn't quick enough; most surprisingly he threw better from center than he ever did at shortstop.
The key to Hamilton's ability to maximize his value will be how he uses his speed to boost his on-base percentage, bunting for hits or beating out seemingly routine grounders to the left side. If he can be a .400 OBP guy with even average defense in center, his legs will make him a 4-5 WAR player until his speed starts to go.
31 Javier Baez
Age: 20 (DOB: Dec. 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '12 Level: A (Daytona)
2012 ranking: 95
2012 MINORS STATS
GM80
AB293
HR16
RBI46
SB24
SO69
BB14
AVG.294
OBP.346
SLG.543
Baez might have the best bat speed in the minors, and he certainly has the angriest swing, often reminiscent of John Belushi's samurai character from "Saturday Night Live." (Of course, when Baez was born, Belushi had been dead for a decade, so perhaps I need a more contemporary reference.)
His hands are explosive, and the bat speed is so good that he's already got plus-plus raw power and can drive the ball out to the opposite field like he's tying his shoes. He's also one of the least patient hitters in the minors, approaching each pitch in fourth gear, swinging and missing because he doesn't shorten up or otherwise adjust his swing to the situation. In the field, he's quieted doubts about his ability to stay at shortstop; he has the agility and instincts for it, as well as a plus arm, so the only major issue is whether he eventually outgrows the position.
He's one of the highest-beta prospects on this list -- he could be a 30-homer shortstop, or he could stall out in Double-A because pitchers exploit him and he can't adjust. I'm willing, for now, to bet on the former.
32 Jonathan Singleton
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 18, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: 1B Organization: Houston Astros
Top '12 Level: AA (Corpus Christi)
2012 ranking: 46
2012 MINORS STATS
GM131
AB461
HR21
RBI79
SB7
SO131
BB88
AVG.284
OBP.396
SLG.497
First base is a weak spot in the minors right now, in part because the cycle is down, but also because the standards for the position are so high: To be a potential star or even above-average regular there, you have to be able to rake, and Singleton is one of the few no-doubters in that regard.
Jonathan, who is of no relation to Ken or Chris, has an outstanding left-handed swing, with good balance throughout and solid extension to generate power. His pitch recognition against right-handers is very advanced, good enough for the big leagues right now, both in terms of pitch types and balls versus strikes. The main deficiency in his game is against left-handed pitching, although his .232/.307/.416 line against them in Double-A represented an improvement.
Singleton is facing a 50-game suspension for marijuana usage -- under baseball's misguided drug policies, he would have been better off driving drunk -- which will cost him some at bats that could have accelerated his timetable, but it doesn't affect his long-term outlook as the Astros' first baseman of the future, a possible .380-.400 OBP guy with 25-homer power.
33 Albert Almora
Age: 18 (DOB: April 16, 1994)
Bats: RightThrows: Right
Position: CF Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '12 Level: A (Boise)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM33
AB140
HR2
RBI19
SB5
SO13
BB2
AVG.321
OBP.331
SLG.464
The joke in scouting circles last spring was that Cubs President Theo Epstein didn't just want to draft Almora, he wanted to adopt him. Almora is a natural center fielder who has outstanding instincts, especially when reading the ball off the bat, so even though he's an average runner he plays with plus range and has an above-average arm.
Almora starts his swing with a high leg kick but gets his foot down in time, with a very steady, controlled swing that has plenty of hip rotation for power without sacrificing his ability to square up the ball for solid contact. He has excellent hand-eye coordination and doesn't swing and miss much, even with the wood bat. His lack of patience in his pro debut (two walks in 145 plate appearances) was something of a surprise, although he might have just wanted to fit in with all of the Cubs' other hitting prospects.
His ceiling is as a high-average hitter with plus defense in center and 20 home runs, although he's going to have to show he can take a pitch now and then to get there.
Rank Player
34 Alen Hanson
Age: 20 (DOB: Oct. 22, 1992)
Bats: BothThrows: Right
Position: SS Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '12 Level: A (West Virginia)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM124
AB489
HR16
RBI62
SB35
SO105
BB55
AVG.309
OBP.381
SLG.528
Hanson jumped on the radar by hitting .410 in the month of April, obviously a bit of a small-sample fluke, but, in his case, not an entirely useless bit of info, as he hit .281/.366/.482 over the rest of the season.
He's a true switch-hitter with a compact left-handed swing and more loft from his natural right-handed side, and is a plus runner who's a tick better than that when he's underway. Hanson is currently a shortstop, and I see no reason he can't stay there; his feet are quick, his arm is strong enough (at least a 60 on the 20-80 scale) to make the throw from the hole, and his hands are fine. He made 40 errors this year, most of them early (21 in his first 42 games), but many of them attributable to terrible field conditions in West Virginia as well; the in-season improvements were noticeable, especially his focus on routine plays.
If he has to move to second base, which I still doubt, he'd be an above-average regular, but his bat and speed give him star potential if he does indeed stay at shortstop.
35 Mason Williams
Age: 21 (DOB: Aug. 21, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: CF Organization: New York Yankees
Top '12 Level: A (Tampa)
2012 ranking: 34
2012 MINORS STATS
GM91
AB359
HR11
RBI35
SB20
SO47
BB24
AVG.298
OBP.346
SLG.474
Williams had a solid full-season debut in 2012, showing off his hit and glove tools while demonstrating that he still needs a lot of refinement at the plate.
He's been keeping his weight back at the plate much better since I first saw him in 2011, giving him more time to recognize pitches and a better chance to drive them out to the gaps, although he can get a little power-happy and drop his back shoulder too much to try to elevate the ball. He goes to the plate with the intention of attacking the first good pitch he sees, so he doesn't walk or strike out much yet, and since he's not likely to become a 25-homer guy he's going to have to show greater patience before he's ready for the majors.
His glove, on the other hand, is ready now, with a 70 grade on the 20-80 scale thanks to above-average speed and great reads even on balls that slice away from him. Williams injured his non-throwing shoulder making a diving catch at the start of August and missed the rest of the season, something that bears watching to make sure he doesn't cut off his swing to compensate for any residual soreness.
If healthy, he should reach Double-A this year and would be Curtis Granderson's eventual replacement in center, even if his glove is ready before his bat.
36 Austin Hedges
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 18, 1992)
Bats: RightThrows: Right
Position: C Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '12 Level: A (Fort Wayne)
2012 ranking: Just missed
2012 MINORS STATS
GM96
AB337
HR10
RBI56
SB14
SO62
BB23
AVG.279
OBP.334
SLG.451
Hedges is the best defensive catching prospect in the minors if we limit the list to guys who have a chance to hit as well, which Hedges does, more than seemed likely when the Padres drafted him in the second round in 2011.
He's an outstanding receiver with a plus arm that's also highly accurate, enough that he should be able to limit the running game when he's working with pitchers who try to hold runners. At the plate, Hedges surprised everyone during instructional league last fall with his raw power, showing some of it this summer as a 19-year-old in low Class A; he's got a long stride and gets very rotational, just opening his front hip a little early and not yet showing the plate discipline that will put him in better counts to get pitches he can drive.
He's somewhat riskier than most of the names in the top 50, primarily because he's a "power before hit" guy right now, but the defense and the potential for 20 homers, after a year where NL catchers slugged an aggregate .401, gives Hedges at least a 3-WAR upside.
37 David Dahl
Age: 18 (DOB: April 1, 1994)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: CF Organization: Colorado Rockies
Top '12 Level: Rookie (Grand Junction)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM62
AB280
HR9
RBI57
SB12
SO42
BB21
AVG.379
OBP.423
SLG.625
The Rockies don't have a complex-league team in Arizona, so all of their teenaged prospects, whether right out of the draft or just promoted from the Dominican Summer League, have to go to the higher-caliber Pioneer League, a very tough test for an 18-year-old just out of, say, Alabama.
All Dahl did was lead the league in batting average and slugging while finishing sixth in OBP (with another teenager, Cincinnati's Jesse Winker, leading in that category). Dahl earns a lot of comparisons to J.D. Drew, another athletic kid with good baseball skills but who didn't always show the kind of on-field energy people expected to see.
Dahl can run enough for center now but will probably fill out enough to have to move to a corner, and has the plus arm for right field. He's got very good bat speed with a pretty direct path to the ball, extending through contact for power that's average today and should finish in the above-average to plus range, probably 20-25 homers in a normal ballpark (that is, not Coors Field).
The alternate path for him would be to eschew some power to keep himself trim enough for center, which would likely make him just as valuable. He's a more advanced hitter than it seemed out of the spring, which is a huge positive sign for the Rockies, who should think about sending him to low Class A Asheville to start 2013.
38 Nick Castellanos
Age: 20 (DOB: March 4, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B/OF Organization: Detroit Tigers
Top '12 Level: AA (Erie)
2012 ranking: 37
2012 MINORS STATS
GM134
AB537
HR10
RBI57
SB8
SO118
BB36
AVG.320
OBP.365
SLG.451
Castellanos is one of the best pure hitters in the minors, reaching Double-A at age 20 after hitting .405 in the first half for high Class A Lakeland. But some other deficiencies in his game limit his ultimate ceiling.
He has very strong hands, a simple swing (with a somewhat deep load) and outstanding rotational motion for future power, probably in the 25-30 homer range if he makes enough contact. He struggled with patience when he first reached Double-A, although he walked more in his final month than he did in his first two combined. He's a below-average runner who could have stayed at third if the Tigers had been patient with him, but they've moved him to right field now to accommodate the statue they have playing third in the big leagues, hurting Castellanos' value in the process.
What that leaves us with is a right fielder, potentially an average or better one, who should hit for average and power but has to improve his approach, especially recognition of borderline balls and strikes, to be able to get to the contact and the power. He'll still be an above-average regular, but at third he had a chance to be a star.
39 Carlos Martinez
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 2, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '12 Level: AA (Springfield)
2012 ranking: 22
2012 MINORS STATS
GM22
IP104.1
W6
L5
ERA2.93
SO92
BB32
H91
HR6
BAA.236
Martinez bounced back from a rough first go at high Class A Palm Beach in 2011, pitching well enough at the level to earn a promotion to Double-A, where he showed better command and generated a ton of ground balls. The one negative about the season is that in between the two levels he missed about a month with shoulder tendinitis, time the Cardinals used to try to slow him down and get him to repeat his delivery more consistently.
Martinez has top-of-the-rotation stuff, with a mid-90s fastball that he can dial up to 100, a hard low-80s curveball with sharp two-plane break, and a solid-average changeup that will flash better than that but for which he doesn't have the same feel as the other two pitches. He's listed at 6-foot, 165 pounds, and his slight frame earns comparisons to Pedro Martinez (who also had a better changeup, for that matter), so the bout of shoulder soreness is less than ideal.
If he can show he can stay healthy and effective for 150 innings this year, he'll be back in line to pitch in the top two slots in someone's rotation. If the shoulder issue recurs, he may end up a shutdown reliever with two pitches near the top of the 20-80 scale.
40 Jackie Bradley Jr.
Age: 22 (DOB: April 19, 1990)
Bats: LeftThrows: Right
Position: CF Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '12 Level: AA (Portland)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM128
AB463
HR9
RBI63
SB24
SO89
BB87
AVG.315
OBP.430
SLG.482
Bradley is a potential Gold Glove defender in center -- meaning he'd be one of the best, not that he'd get the actual award, since the two have almost nothing to do with each other -- who should hit for average and get on base as long as he doesn't overextend himself and try to hit for power.
He is just an average runner but his reads on balls in center rival those of the other elite defensive center fielders in the minors, even ahead of guys like Albert Almora and Mason Williams. His lower half can be a little noisy at the plate, getting his front foot down late, gliding over his front side and sometimes even drifting back mid-swing. But when he keeps his swing short and simple he generates hard line-drive contact from foul line to foul line, with doubles power that might max out around 10-12 homers a year. When he over-rotates to try to hit the ball out, he doesn't make enough contact and the result of the tradeoff is a net negative.
His best attribute as a hitter has been his plate discipline, producing high walk rates in the minors with good pitch recognition as well, producing a .373 OBP after his promotion to Portland.
His emergence in 2012 will probably help the Red Sox feel like they can let Jacoby Ellsbury walk as a free agent after the 2013 season, with a cheaper replacement, one without all of the injuries, waiting in the wings.
41 Kyle Gibson
Age: 25 (DOB: Oct. 23, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: AAA (Rochester)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM13
IP28.1
W0
L2
ERA4.13
SO33
BB6
H26
HR3
BAA.243
Gibson missed the first half of 2012 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, falling off my list after ranking 32nd going into the 2011 season, but his comeback showed him throwing as hard and as well as ever, including a Fall League stint where he outshone all other starting pitchers in the circuit.
He is back to 92-94 with his four-seamer, and he works down in the zone to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. His best pitch is a hard slider that he uses to wipe out right-handed hitters but also used in changeup counts against lefties, throwing it behind their hands or at their back feet just as they were leaning in to cover for changeups on the outer half. His change is hard at 84-85 but good enough with slight fading action to make hitters have to protect for it, so the slider plays up.
He might be on an innings limit in 2013, as it's his first full year back after surgery, but he's ready for the Twins' major league rotation and could be its best starter by the end of the year.
42 Jorge Soler
Age: 20 (DOB: Feb. 25, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RF Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '12 Level: A (Peoria)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM34
AB134
HR5
RBI25
SB12
SO19
BB12
AVG.299
OBP.369
SLG.463
Soler signed before the new CBA rules on enriching owners at the expense of impoverished Latin American kids went into effect, signing with the Cubs for a $6 million bonus and $24 million in salary over nine years, although he can opt out of the deal if he becomes eligible for salary arbitration.
He's a wiry, athletic outfielder with explosive hands at the plate, starting them high and deep but getting them moving so quickly that he has no trouble catching up to good velocity. He doesn't look like a typical power hitter, but he's got the quick-twitch muscles to be able to rotate the bat through the zone and drive the ball out to left-center like an older or more physical player would. On defense, he might be playable in center for now but the Cubs have him in right, which would be his long-term position regardless.
Soler only played 34 games last summer after signing, but it's a point in his favor that he struck out just 19 times even though he hadn't faced live pitching on a regular basis in nearly two years. At just 21 this year, he should be able to get to Double-A with the upside of an above-average regular in right who should peak in the 25-30 home run range.
43 George Springer
Age: 23 (DOB: Sept. 19, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: CF Organization: Houston Astros
Top '12 Level: AA (Corpus Christi)
2012 ranking: 60
2012 MINORS STATS
GM128
AB506
HR24
RBI87
SB32
SO156
BB62
AVG.302
OBP.383
SLG.526
Springer is a true five-tool player who is, as scouts say, what prospects are supposed to look like, but the lack of adjustments in his approach in the last two years is becoming more and more of a concern.
On the plus side, Springer can run, throw, hit for power (including to the opposite field), and cover ground in center; if he has to move to a corner, he'll easily be plus in right, similar to Jason Heyward, a center fielder in high school who's become one of the game's best right fielders.
At the plate, Springer is fine when he's ahead in the count, with superlative hand acceleration, letting him load a little deeply and wait on the ball, then exploding to it with the bat speed and rotation to produce plus power. When he falls behind, however, he struggles to adjust, with no real two-strike approach -- he doesn't shorten up, he doesn't look for different pitch types, and he doesn't use the whole field.
These are all changes he is able to make, but hasn't yet. If he does, he's an All-Star and would give the Astros a second impact bat with Jonathan Singleton. If not, Springer might not make enough contact to be a big league regular.
44 Brian Goodwin
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 2, 1992)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: RF Organization: Washington Nationals
Top '12 Level: AA (Harrisburg)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM100
AB382
HR14
RBI52
SB18
SO89
BB61
AVG.280
OBP.384
SLG.469
Goodwin was a potential first-rounder out of high school, went to UNC, played like a future top-10 pick, was suspended for his sophomore year, and transferred to Miami-Dade Junior College where he played just poorly enough to slide to Washington in the sandwich round -- much to the Nats' joy, I imagine, given how he's turned out.
He has recovered from the one-year aberration, showing the plus-plus speed, quick bat, and surprising power that he displayed in his one year at Chapel Hill. Goodwin isn't big but generates that power mostly with bat speed, getting enough rotation to put some loft into his swing, although it might translate more as doubles/triples power in the majors. He's a 65 to 70 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale) whose speed translate more in the field or underway than home to first, with plenty of arm for center.
The concern with Goodwin is the hit tool, specifically related to making contact, as his swing can get long and his recognition of off-speed isn't great; he punched out in nearly a third of his Double-A at-bats (after a two-level jump) and did the same in the Arizona Fall League. There's some Mike Cameron potential here, with defense, speed, and OBP, but with more doubles and fewer homers.
Age: 21 (DOB: Aug. 21, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: CF Organization: New York Yankees
Top '12 Level: A (Tampa)
2012 ranking: 34
2012 MINORS STATS
GM91
AB359
HR11
RBI35
SB20
SO47
BB24
AVG.298
OBP.346
SLG.474
Williams had a solid full-season debut in 2012, showing off his hit and glove tools while demonstrating that he still needs a lot of refinement at the plate.
He's been keeping his weight back at the plate much better since I first saw him in 2011, giving him more time to recognize pitches and a better chance to drive them out to the gaps, although he can get a little power-happy and drop his back shoulder too much to try to elevate the ball. He goes to the plate with the intention of attacking the first good pitch he sees, so he doesn't walk or strike out much yet, and since he's not likely to become a 25-homer guy he's going to have to show greater patience before he's ready for the majors.
His glove, on the other hand, is ready now, with a 70 grade on the 20-80 scale thanks to above-average speed and great reads even on balls that slice away from him. Williams injured his non-throwing shoulder making a diving catch at the start of August and missed the rest of the season, something that bears watching to make sure he doesn't cut off his swing to compensate for any residual soreness.
If healthy, he should reach Double-A this year and would be Curtis Granderson's eventual replacement in center, even if his glove is ready before his bat.
36 Austin Hedges
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 18, 1992)
Bats: RightThrows: Right
Position: C Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '12 Level: A (Fort Wayne)
2012 ranking: Just missed
2012 MINORS STATS
GM96
AB337
HR10
RBI56
SB14
SO62
BB23
AVG.279
OBP.334
SLG.451
Hedges is the best defensive catching prospect in the minors if we limit the list to guys who have a chance to hit as well, which Hedges does, more than seemed likely when the Padres drafted him in the second round in 2011.
He's an outstanding receiver with a plus arm that's also highly accurate, enough that he should be able to limit the running game when he's working with pitchers who try to hold runners. At the plate, Hedges surprised everyone during instructional league last fall with his raw power, showing some of it this summer as a 19-year-old in low Class A; he's got a long stride and gets very rotational, just opening his front hip a little early and not yet showing the plate discipline that will put him in better counts to get pitches he can drive.
He's somewhat riskier than most of the names in the top 50, primarily because he's a "power before hit" guy right now, but the defense and the potential for 20 homers, after a year where NL catchers slugged an aggregate .401, gives Hedges at least a 3-WAR upside.
37 David Dahl
Age: 18 (DOB: April 1, 1994)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: CF Organization: Colorado Rockies
Top '12 Level: Rookie (Grand Junction)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM62
AB280
HR9
RBI57
SB12
SO42
BB21
AVG.379
OBP.423
SLG.625
The Rockies don't have a complex-league team in Arizona, so all of their teenaged prospects, whether right out of the draft or just promoted from the Dominican Summer League, have to go to the higher-caliber Pioneer League, a very tough test for an 18-year-old just out of, say, Alabama.
All Dahl did was lead the league in batting average and slugging while finishing sixth in OBP (with another teenager, Cincinnati's Jesse Winker, leading in that category). Dahl earns a lot of comparisons to J.D. Drew, another athletic kid with good baseball skills but who didn't always show the kind of on-field energy people expected to see.
Dahl can run enough for center now but will probably fill out enough to have to move to a corner, and has the plus arm for right field. He's got very good bat speed with a pretty direct path to the ball, extending through contact for power that's average today and should finish in the above-average to plus range, probably 20-25 homers in a normal ballpark (that is, not Coors Field).
The alternate path for him would be to eschew some power to keep himself trim enough for center, which would likely make him just as valuable. He's a more advanced hitter than it seemed out of the spring, which is a huge positive sign for the Rockies, who should think about sending him to low Class A Asheville to start 2013.
38 Nick Castellanos
Age: 20 (DOB: March 4, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B/OF Organization: Detroit Tigers
Top '12 Level: AA (Erie)
2012 ranking: 37
2012 MINORS STATS
GM134
AB537
HR10
RBI57
SB8
SO118
BB36
AVG.320
OBP.365
SLG.451
Castellanos is one of the best pure hitters in the minors, reaching Double-A at age 20 after hitting .405 in the first half for high Class A Lakeland. But some other deficiencies in his game limit his ultimate ceiling.
He has very strong hands, a simple swing (with a somewhat deep load) and outstanding rotational motion for future power, probably in the 25-30 homer range if he makes enough contact. He struggled with patience when he first reached Double-A, although he walked more in his final month than he did in his first two combined. He's a below-average runner who could have stayed at third if the Tigers had been patient with him, but they've moved him to right field now to accommodate the statue they have playing third in the big leagues, hurting Castellanos' value in the process.
What that leaves us with is a right fielder, potentially an average or better one, who should hit for average and power but has to improve his approach, especially recognition of borderline balls and strikes, to be able to get to the contact and the power. He'll still be an above-average regular, but at third he had a chance to be a star.
39 Carlos Martinez
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 2, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '12 Level: AA (Springfield)
2012 ranking: 22
2012 MINORS STATS
GM22
IP104.1
W6
L5
ERA2.93
SO92
BB32
H91
HR6
BAA.236
Martinez bounced back from a rough first go at high Class A Palm Beach in 2011, pitching well enough at the level to earn a promotion to Double-A, where he showed better command and generated a ton of ground balls. The one negative about the season is that in between the two levels he missed about a month with shoulder tendinitis, time the Cardinals used to try to slow him down and get him to repeat his delivery more consistently.
Martinez has top-of-the-rotation stuff, with a mid-90s fastball that he can dial up to 100, a hard low-80s curveball with sharp two-plane break, and a solid-average changeup that will flash better than that but for which he doesn't have the same feel as the other two pitches. He's listed at 6-foot, 165 pounds, and his slight frame earns comparisons to Pedro Martinez (who also had a better changeup, for that matter), so the bout of shoulder soreness is less than ideal.
If he can show he can stay healthy and effective for 150 innings this year, he'll be back in line to pitch in the top two slots in someone's rotation. If the shoulder issue recurs, he may end up a shutdown reliever with two pitches near the top of the 20-80 scale.
40 Jackie Bradley Jr.
Age: 22 (DOB: April 19, 1990)
Bats: LeftThrows: Right
Position: CF Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '12 Level: AA (Portland)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM128
AB463
HR9
RBI63
SB24
SO89
BB87
AVG.315
OBP.430
SLG.482
Bradley is a potential Gold Glove defender in center -- meaning he'd be one of the best, not that he'd get the actual award, since the two have almost nothing to do with each other -- who should hit for average and get on base as long as he doesn't overextend himself and try to hit for power.
He is just an average runner but his reads on balls in center rival those of the other elite defensive center fielders in the minors, even ahead of guys like Albert Almora and Mason Williams. His lower half can be a little noisy at the plate, getting his front foot down late, gliding over his front side and sometimes even drifting back mid-swing. But when he keeps his swing short and simple he generates hard line-drive contact from foul line to foul line, with doubles power that might max out around 10-12 homers a year. When he over-rotates to try to hit the ball out, he doesn't make enough contact and the result of the tradeoff is a net negative.
His best attribute as a hitter has been his plate discipline, producing high walk rates in the minors with good pitch recognition as well, producing a .373 OBP after his promotion to Portland.
His emergence in 2012 will probably help the Red Sox feel like they can let Jacoby Ellsbury walk as a free agent after the 2013 season, with a cheaper replacement, one without all of the injuries, waiting in the wings.
41 Kyle Gibson
Age: 25 (DOB: Oct. 23, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: AAA (Rochester)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM13
IP28.1
W0
L2
ERA4.13
SO33
BB6
H26
HR3
BAA.243
Gibson missed the first half of 2012 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, falling off my list after ranking 32nd going into the 2011 season, but his comeback showed him throwing as hard and as well as ever, including a Fall League stint where he outshone all other starting pitchers in the circuit.
He is back to 92-94 with his four-seamer, and he works down in the zone to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. His best pitch is a hard slider that he uses to wipe out right-handed hitters but also used in changeup counts against lefties, throwing it behind their hands or at their back feet just as they were leaning in to cover for changeups on the outer half. His change is hard at 84-85 but good enough with slight fading action to make hitters have to protect for it, so the slider plays up.
He might be on an innings limit in 2013, as it's his first full year back after surgery, but he's ready for the Twins' major league rotation and could be its best starter by the end of the year.
42 Jorge Soler
Age: 20 (DOB: Feb. 25, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RF Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '12 Level: A (Peoria)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM34
AB134
HR5
RBI25
SB12
SO19
BB12
AVG.299
OBP.369
SLG.463
Soler signed before the new CBA rules on enriching owners at the expense of impoverished Latin American kids went into effect, signing with the Cubs for a $6 million bonus and $24 million in salary over nine years, although he can opt out of the deal if he becomes eligible for salary arbitration.
He's a wiry, athletic outfielder with explosive hands at the plate, starting them high and deep but getting them moving so quickly that he has no trouble catching up to good velocity. He doesn't look like a typical power hitter, but he's got the quick-twitch muscles to be able to rotate the bat through the zone and drive the ball out to left-center like an older or more physical player would. On defense, he might be playable in center for now but the Cubs have him in right, which would be his long-term position regardless.
Soler only played 34 games last summer after signing, but it's a point in his favor that he struck out just 19 times even though he hadn't faced live pitching on a regular basis in nearly two years. At just 21 this year, he should be able to get to Double-A with the upside of an above-average regular in right who should peak in the 25-30 home run range.
43 George Springer
Age: 23 (DOB: Sept. 19, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: CF Organization: Houston Astros
Top '12 Level: AA (Corpus Christi)
2012 ranking: 60
2012 MINORS STATS
GM128
AB506
HR24
RBI87
SB32
SO156
BB62
AVG.302
OBP.383
SLG.526
Springer is a true five-tool player who is, as scouts say, what prospects are supposed to look like, but the lack of adjustments in his approach in the last two years is becoming more and more of a concern.
On the plus side, Springer can run, throw, hit for power (including to the opposite field), and cover ground in center; if he has to move to a corner, he'll easily be plus in right, similar to Jason Heyward, a center fielder in high school who's become one of the game's best right fielders.
At the plate, Springer is fine when he's ahead in the count, with superlative hand acceleration, letting him load a little deeply and wait on the ball, then exploding to it with the bat speed and rotation to produce plus power. When he falls behind, however, he struggles to adjust, with no real two-strike approach -- he doesn't shorten up, he doesn't look for different pitch types, and he doesn't use the whole field.
These are all changes he is able to make, but hasn't yet. If he does, he's an All-Star and would give the Astros a second impact bat with Jonathan Singleton. If not, Springer might not make enough contact to be a big league regular.
44 Brian Goodwin
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 2, 1992)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: RF Organization: Washington Nationals
Top '12 Level: AA (Harrisburg)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM100
AB382
HR14
RBI52
SB18
SO89
BB61
AVG.280
OBP.384
SLG.469
Goodwin was a potential first-rounder out of high school, went to UNC, played like a future top-10 pick, was suspended for his sophomore year, and transferred to Miami-Dade Junior College where he played just poorly enough to slide to Washington in the sandwich round -- much to the Nats' joy, I imagine, given how he's turned out.
He has recovered from the one-year aberration, showing the plus-plus speed, quick bat, and surprising power that he displayed in his one year at Chapel Hill. Goodwin isn't big but generates that power mostly with bat speed, getting enough rotation to put some loft into his swing, although it might translate more as doubles/triples power in the majors. He's a 65 to 70 runner (on the 20-80 scouting scale) whose speed translate more in the field or underway than home to first, with plenty of arm for center.
The concern with Goodwin is the hit tool, specifically related to making contact, as his swing can get long and his recognition of off-speed isn't great; he punched out in nearly a third of his Double-A at-bats (after a two-level jump) and did the same in the Arizona Fall League. There's some Mike Cameron potential here, with defense, speed, and OBP, but with more doubles and fewer homers.
45 Bubba Starling
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 3, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: OF Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '12 Level: Rookie (Burlington)
2012 ranking: 15
2012 MINORS STATS
GM53
AB200
HR10
RBI33
SB10
SO70
BB28
AVG.275
OBP.371
SLG.485
Starling's pro debut was good, not great, and he's still more about potential than performance, which wouldn't be a huge deal were it not for his age. Starling was a bit old for a high school senior and will be 20 years and 8 months on Opening Day this year, so he needs to be in a full-season league with an eye toward a midyear promotion to high Class A.
He still has all the tools that made him the first position player selected in the 2011 draft -- plus runner, plus raw power, a plus arm and the ability to be at least an above-average defender in center or plus in right. Starling's approach within at-bats improved over the course of the season, but he can still expand the zone too much, which, combined with a little bit of a hitch in his swing, led to the high strikeout totals.
He may always have some swing and miss, but could be like the good version of B.J. Upton, doing damage when he does make contact while adding value in all the other aspects of the game.
46 Corey Seager
Age: 18 (DOB: April 27, 1994)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers
Top '12 Level: Rookie (Ogden)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM46
AB175
HR8
RBI33
SB8
SO33
BB21
AVG.309
OBP.383
SLG.520
Seager, the 18th overall pick in last June's draft, was one of a handful of high school prospects who benefited from the signing deadline moving from mid-August to mid-July. As a result, he was playing pro ball sooner and improving his stock (and perhaps getting closer to the big leagues) with a strong initial performance.
He won't stay at shortstop in pro ball because he'll outgrow it, but he should be a plus defender at third, with at least a 60 arm and above-average running speed (for now, at least). He loads his hands a little deep at the plate, almost barring the lead arm but not quite; he gets great hip rotation and keeps his weight back very well, producing both pull and opposite-field power, with 25-30 homer upside. He's more physical and toolsy than his older brother Kyle of the Mariners, but no less polished as a ballplayer at a comparable age.
Random Seager fact: The sample size was miniscule, but in 47 pro plate appearances against southpaws, the left-handed-hitting Seager posted a .333/.489/.639 line -- fun, even if it's probably not indicative of anything other than that he's not hopeless against them.
47 Taylor Guerrieri
Age: 20 (DOB: Dec. 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '12 Level: A (Hudson Valley)
2012 ranking: 88
2012 MINORS STATS
GM12
IP52
W1
L2
ERA1.04
SO45
BB5
H35
HR0
BAA.186
Everyone in the industry knew that Guerrieri had ace-caliber stuff, with a fastball and curveball that would both show as plus, but the surprise in his pro debut in 2012 was how many strikes he threw. Before his final outing of the year, when he walked three batters, he had walked just two guys the rest of the season against 41 strikeouts. (He didn't walk a single right-handed batter the whole summer.)
Guerrieri ran it up to 97-98 mph pitching once a week at Spring Valley HS in Columbia, S.C., but settled in at 92-95 last summer, showing good command to both sides of the plate and attacking lefties on the inner half. The curveball has tight spin, two-plane break, and plenty of depth, 79-80 mph and showing plus more often than not. He's learning a changeup, which he never had to use in high school; it's running hot in the upper 80s but at least has some fading action to help him while he learns to ease up on it.
The makeup concerns teams had on Guerrieri out of the draft were not a factor in 2012, which also helps his stock. He's a potential ace who could move as quickly as the third pitch comes along, with the two plus pitches and the fastball command already in good shape.
48 Robert Stephenson
Age: 19 (DOB: Feb. 24, 1993)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '12 Level: A (Dayton)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM15
IP65
W3
L4
ERA3.18
SO72
BB23
H54
HR6
BAA.222
Stephenson had some of the best pure arm strength in the 2011 draft class, but his secondary stuff wasn't as advanced as the Dylan Bundy/Archie Bradley class of arms, and he had more violence in the delivery that raised questions about whether he'd throw strikes.
He started to answer those doubts with a strong 2012 showing around some Jekyll-and-Hyde performances in the middle. As a prep kid, Stephenson threw five or six different pitches and relied on a splitter -- which most high school hitters can't sniff -- as an out pitch. The Reds have simplified his approach, so now he's fastball-curve-changeup, still 93-98 and now at least flashing a plus curveball with tight rotation, although it's not consistent, while the changeup is still a work in progress.
He has some head violence in his delivery, but overall repeats everything well enough to throw strikes. He could end up a Grant Balfour-like arm out of the pen, if the secondary stuff doesn't come along, but he's shown so much progress that the Reds have likely found buried treasure here and a potential No. 1 or 2 starter.
49 Aaron Hicks
Age: 23 (DOB: Oct. 2, 1989)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: CF Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: AA (New Britain)
2012 ranking: 80
2012 MINORS STATS
GM129
AB472
HR13
RBI61
SB32
SO116
BB79
AVG.286
OBP.384
SLG.460
Hicks is now in his fifth year on these rankings, and he's actually closest to where he ranked in his first time on the list (No. 56 back in January 2009).
After somewhat slow progress, mostly around his ability to recognize off-speed stuff, he finally seems ready to make his major league debut in 2013, with his glove already good enough to play center in Minneapolis once his bat arrives. Hicks is a patient hitter with a better swing from the right side, staying back better and showing more hand strength, resulting in more power against lefties than he shows against righties, but he's improved enough from the left side to show he can and should continue to switch-hit. He's a plus defender in center with an 80 arm and a plus runner who should be good for 25-30 bags a season, if not more.
If he develops 20-homer power, he's a potential star; if not, he's a very good everyday player thanks to his defense and potential for high OBPs.
50 Jonathan Schoop
Age: 21 (DOB: Oct. 16, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: IF Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '12 Level: AA (Bowie)
2012 ranking: 56
2012 MINORS STATS
GM124
AB485
HR14
RBI56
SB5
SO103
BB50
AVG.245
OBP.324
SLG.386
I'll readily concede that I'm higher on Schoop than much of the industry, but I think his poor performance after a too-aggressive promotion to Double-A has created a gap between his tools and the perception of how he'll be able to use them.
Schoop should have finished 2011 in low Class A, not high-A, but Baltimore compounded the error by starting him at Double-A in 2012 instead of returning him to high-A to let him succeed at the level before moving him up. He has a great right-handed swing with easy power and the ability to drive the ball the other way. His approach is good for a 20-year-old who's been trying to keep his head above water; in the Arizona Fall League, he recognized off-speed stuff well, but struggled against better pitchers who could change speeds and locations on him.
He's not a shortstop although he still plays it from time to time; he's got a 60 arm (on the 20-80 scale) and will have the power for third, where I prefer to see him, and should be agile enough for second. The O's should slow him down and return him to Double-A so he can get some success under his belt, especially against right-handed pitching, before moving him up to Triple-A. He's got 25-homer potential with the eye to keep his OBPs up, along with above-average defense at third or solid-average at second.
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 3, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: OF Organization: Kansas City Royals
Top '12 Level: Rookie (Burlington)
2012 ranking: 15
2012 MINORS STATS
GM53
AB200
HR10
RBI33
SB10
SO70
BB28
AVG.275
OBP.371
SLG.485
Starling's pro debut was good, not great, and he's still more about potential than performance, which wouldn't be a huge deal were it not for his age. Starling was a bit old for a high school senior and will be 20 years and 8 months on Opening Day this year, so he needs to be in a full-season league with an eye toward a midyear promotion to high Class A.
He still has all the tools that made him the first position player selected in the 2011 draft -- plus runner, plus raw power, a plus arm and the ability to be at least an above-average defender in center or plus in right. Starling's approach within at-bats improved over the course of the season, but he can still expand the zone too much, which, combined with a little bit of a hitch in his swing, led to the high strikeout totals.
He may always have some swing and miss, but could be like the good version of B.J. Upton, doing damage when he does make contact while adding value in all the other aspects of the game.
46 Corey Seager
Age: 18 (DOB: April 27, 1994)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers
Top '12 Level: Rookie (Ogden)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM46
AB175
HR8
RBI33
SB8
SO33
BB21
AVG.309
OBP.383
SLG.520
Seager, the 18th overall pick in last June's draft, was one of a handful of high school prospects who benefited from the signing deadline moving from mid-August to mid-July. As a result, he was playing pro ball sooner and improving his stock (and perhaps getting closer to the big leagues) with a strong initial performance.
He won't stay at shortstop in pro ball because he'll outgrow it, but he should be a plus defender at third, with at least a 60 arm and above-average running speed (for now, at least). He loads his hands a little deep at the plate, almost barring the lead arm but not quite; he gets great hip rotation and keeps his weight back very well, producing both pull and opposite-field power, with 25-30 homer upside. He's more physical and toolsy than his older brother Kyle of the Mariners, but no less polished as a ballplayer at a comparable age.
Random Seager fact: The sample size was miniscule, but in 47 pro plate appearances against southpaws, the left-handed-hitting Seager posted a .333/.489/.639 line -- fun, even if it's probably not indicative of anything other than that he's not hopeless against them.
47 Taylor Guerrieri
Age: 20 (DOB: Dec. 1, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '12 Level: A (Hudson Valley)
2012 ranking: 88
2012 MINORS STATS
GM12
IP52
W1
L2
ERA1.04
SO45
BB5
H35
HR0
BAA.186
Everyone in the industry knew that Guerrieri had ace-caliber stuff, with a fastball and curveball that would both show as plus, but the surprise in his pro debut in 2012 was how many strikes he threw. Before his final outing of the year, when he walked three batters, he had walked just two guys the rest of the season against 41 strikeouts. (He didn't walk a single right-handed batter the whole summer.)
Guerrieri ran it up to 97-98 mph pitching once a week at Spring Valley HS in Columbia, S.C., but settled in at 92-95 last summer, showing good command to both sides of the plate and attacking lefties on the inner half. The curveball has tight spin, two-plane break, and plenty of depth, 79-80 mph and showing plus more often than not. He's learning a changeup, which he never had to use in high school; it's running hot in the upper 80s but at least has some fading action to help him while he learns to ease up on it.
The makeup concerns teams had on Guerrieri out of the draft were not a factor in 2012, which also helps his stock. He's a potential ace who could move as quickly as the third pitch comes along, with the two plus pitches and the fastball command already in good shape.
48 Robert Stephenson
Age: 19 (DOB: Feb. 24, 1993)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '12 Level: A (Dayton)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM15
IP65
W3
L4
ERA3.18
SO72
BB23
H54
HR6
BAA.222
Stephenson had some of the best pure arm strength in the 2011 draft class, but his secondary stuff wasn't as advanced as the Dylan Bundy/Archie Bradley class of arms, and he had more violence in the delivery that raised questions about whether he'd throw strikes.
He started to answer those doubts with a strong 2012 showing around some Jekyll-and-Hyde performances in the middle. As a prep kid, Stephenson threw five or six different pitches and relied on a splitter -- which most high school hitters can't sniff -- as an out pitch. The Reds have simplified his approach, so now he's fastball-curve-changeup, still 93-98 and now at least flashing a plus curveball with tight rotation, although it's not consistent, while the changeup is still a work in progress.
He has some head violence in his delivery, but overall repeats everything well enough to throw strikes. He could end up a Grant Balfour-like arm out of the pen, if the secondary stuff doesn't come along, but he's shown so much progress that the Reds have likely found buried treasure here and a potential No. 1 or 2 starter.
49 Aaron Hicks
Age: 23 (DOB: Oct. 2, 1989)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: CF Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: AA (New Britain)
2012 ranking: 80
2012 MINORS STATS
GM129
AB472
HR13
RBI61
SB32
SO116
BB79
AVG.286
OBP.384
SLG.460
Hicks is now in his fifth year on these rankings, and he's actually closest to where he ranked in his first time on the list (No. 56 back in January 2009).
After somewhat slow progress, mostly around his ability to recognize off-speed stuff, he finally seems ready to make his major league debut in 2013, with his glove already good enough to play center in Minneapolis once his bat arrives. Hicks is a patient hitter with a better swing from the right side, staying back better and showing more hand strength, resulting in more power against lefties than he shows against righties, but he's improved enough from the left side to show he can and should continue to switch-hit. He's a plus defender in center with an 80 arm and a plus runner who should be good for 25-30 bags a season, if not more.
If he develops 20-homer power, he's a potential star; if not, he's a very good everyday player thanks to his defense and potential for high OBPs.
50 Jonathan Schoop
Age: 21 (DOB: Oct. 16, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: IF Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '12 Level: AA (Bowie)
2012 ranking: 56
2012 MINORS STATS
GM124
AB485
HR14
RBI56
SB5
SO103
BB50
AVG.245
OBP.324
SLG.386
I'll readily concede that I'm higher on Schoop than much of the industry, but I think his poor performance after a too-aggressive promotion to Double-A has created a gap between his tools and the perception of how he'll be able to use them.
Schoop should have finished 2011 in low Class A, not high-A, but Baltimore compounded the error by starting him at Double-A in 2012 instead of returning him to high-A to let him succeed at the level before moving him up. He has a great right-handed swing with easy power and the ability to drive the ball the other way. His approach is good for a 20-year-old who's been trying to keep his head above water; in the Arizona Fall League, he recognized off-speed stuff well, but struggled against better pitchers who could change speeds and locations on him.
He's not a shortstop although he still plays it from time to time; he's got a 60 arm (on the 20-80 scale) and will have the power for third, where I prefer to see him, and should be agile enough for second. The O's should slow him down and return him to Double-A so he can get some success under his belt, especially against right-handed pitching, before moving him up to Triple-A. He's got 25-homer potential with the eye to keep his OBPs up, along with above-average defense at third or solid-average at second.
Ranking the top prospects (51-75)
51 Max Fried
Age: 19 (DOB: Jan. 18, 1994)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '12 Level: Rookie (AZL)
2012 ranking: IE
GM10
IP17.2
W0
L1
ERA3.57
SO17
BB6
H14
HR1
BAA.215
Fried was the seventh overall pick in the 2012 draft and was the best left-handed pitcher in the draft from high school or college. He is a very athletic pitcher who can swing the bat a little and earned as much praise from scouts for his aggressiveness on the mound as for his raw stuff.
He will pitch right now at 89-93 mph with good life to his arm side and deception in his delivery that helps the velocity play up. His curveball, when it's on, breaks sharply downward at 73-76, but it can get too hard and slurvy when he doesn't have his release point. His changeup may end up the better off-speed pitch, a little hard at 81-83 but with late running action and good deception. He stays over the rubber well and drives forward toward the plate with a long stride and early enough pronation to get his arm into throwing position when he plants, a clean delivery he repeats well so he can throw strikes. He is a solid-fielding pitcher thanks to his athleticism.
He's more of a No. 2 than a future ace, someone who'll be among the top 20 or so pitchers in his league and should be good for 200 innings a year when he matures.
52 Tyler Austin
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 6, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RF Organization: New York Yankees
Top '12 Level: AA (Trenton)
2012 ranking: Sleeper
GM110
AB413
HR17
RBI80
SB23
SO98
BB51
AVG.322
OBP.400
SLG.559
Austin is a pure hitter, a former third baseman who moved to right field to accommodate Dante Bichette Jr. but has now blown past Bichette on the team's prospect depth chart.
He is almost all bat, but he can rake, hitting for average and power at two levels this year and earning a two-game call-up to Double-A at the end of the season. As long as he continues to hit like this, he'll project as an above-average regular in right. He's adequate on defense and might have had a chance to develop to the same point at third, but he's staying in right field for now, where he'll have the range and arm to be league-average.
Austin's swing is fundamentally sound, shifting his weight just before contact, rotating his hips to drive the ball and staying balanced throughout with a short path to the ball and good extension, checking just about all of the boxes you want for a hitter's mechanics.
He could be held back if his contact rates, just fair now, slip at Double-A or if he can't make marginal improvements on defense. I see the patience and sufficient athleticism for him to overcome those and become a .300/.360/.500 guy at his peak.
53 Chris Archer
Age: 24 (DOB: Sept. 26, 1988)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '12 Level: Majors (Rays)
2012 ranking: 63
GM25
IP128
W7
L9
ERA3.66
SO139
BB62
H99
HR6
BAA.215
This hard-throwing right-hander, nicknamed Duchess, recovered some of the ground he lost in 2011 when he struggled with fastball command and his lack of a third pitch, throwing more strikes and missing more bats, although he did still show a significant platoon split in Triple-A and an even larger one in the majors.
Archer's fastball/slider combination is filthy, sitting 93-95 as a starter and touching 97, with a knockout slider at 83-87 that breaks very hard down and away from right-handers, or sometimes just straight down like it's falling off a cliff. His changeup has a lot of action at 84-86, but he hates throwing it to his glove side -- throwing just one changeup for a strike on the inner half to lefties in the majors last year -- and he doesn't command the pitch well enough to make it a credible weapon.
He has the two pitches to be a dominant reliever, but he needs "glue up" to get that change to the point where lefties don't tee off on him so he can develop into a No. 2 or 3 starter.
54 Rymer Liriano
Age: 21 (DOB: June 20, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: OF Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '11 Level: AA (San Antonio)
2011 ranking: 40
GM127
AB465
HR8
RBI61
SB32
SO119
BB41
AVG.280
OBP.350
SLG.417
Liriano is one of the main boom-or-bust prospects in the minors. If it clicks, he's an impact bat who will hit fourth in just about any lineup; if it doesn't, he's an up-and-down guy who ends up in Oakland on a minor league deal and flukes into a .920 OPS at age 29, after which the A's flip him for prospects.
He has huge raw power, much of it from upper-body strength, as he starts with a wide base and barely transfers his weight at all. He's power-before-hit, with the bat speed to make plenty of contact but marginal (yet slowly improving) recognition of breaking stuff. He is an above-average runner who has played center but will have to play right in the majors.
If his bat were slower, I'd be far more skeptical of his ability to hit enough to get his power to play, but he has the tools and athleticism to be able to adjust enough to hit in the mid-.200s and produce 25-plus homers on a regular basis.
55 Gregory Polanco
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 14, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: CF Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '12 Level: A (West Virginia)
2012 ranking: UR
GM116
AB437
HR16
RBI85
SB40
SO64
BB44
AVG.325
OBP.388
SLG.522
Polanco was on the same loaded West Virginia team as Alen Hanson, Jose Osuna and the injured Josh Bell, one of the most prospect-laden clubs in the minors last year. Other than Hanson, Polanco outshone them all, showing great promise on defense while making lots of contact and slugging over .500.
His swing is actually quite long, making the low strikeout total a little bit of a surprise. He sets up with his hands high and wraps the bat slightly behind his head, so he's long to the ball and can exacerbate it by trying to pull it. He's a plus runner who should, in time, become a 60 or 70 glove in center, and his approach was good for a 20-year-old who had just 10 at-bats above rookie ball before 2012.
He still has room to fill out physically, and there's some small chance he develops into a high-impact guy. If it all clicks, he might be a 25-plus homer guy with high batting averages and great center-field defense. He's good enough that he doesn't need all of those things to work out for him to become an above-average regular.
56 Dorssys Paulino
Age: 18 (DOB: Nov. 21, 1994)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Cleveland Indians
Top '12 Level: A (Mahoning Valley)
2012 ranking: UR
GM56
AB231
HR7
RBI38
SB11
SO45
BB18
AVG.333
OBP.380
SLG.558
Paulino signed with Cleveland in 2011 for $1.1 million but didn't play in a pro game until June 2012, after which he showed himself to be too advanced a hitter for the Arizona Rookie League and earned a late promotion to short-season Mahoning Valley.
The son of former big league right-hander Jesus Sanchez, Paulino has a simple, line-drive oriented swing, very short to the ball with good balance, and his approach at the plate for a 17-year-old with no pro experience was impressive. I believe he'll stay at shortstop. He's an above-average runner with the arm for the position, but Paulino needs reps and refinement to improve his reads and footwork.
At second base, he'd be a solid player, but not special, while he has a chance to be an impact bat at short with a high average and plenty of doubles and triples. Paulino might be ready by the time he's 21 if the glove can catch up to the bat.
57 Slade Heathcott
Age: 22 (DOB: Sept. 28, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: RF Organization: New York Yankees
Top '12 Level: A (Tampa)
2012 ranking: UR
GM65
AB232
HR5
RBI29
SB19
SO70
BB25
AVG.302
OBP.380
SLG.461
Heathcott is a maniac, and I mean that in a positive way -- mostly. Usually saying a player is a "one-speed" guy is a criticism because he coasts and doesn't have that fourth gear, but Heathcott plays like he jammed a wrench in the gearshift and is in fourth gear all the time -- bowling over catchers when there wasn't really a play at the plate in the Arizona Fall League, for example.
For pure tools, however, he dominated the field in Arizona and has a special mix of strength and quickness that might put him among the top 20 prospects in the game in a year. He has great bat speed and a sound, balanced swing that I rarely saw break down even when he was badly fooled. He's a 60-65 runner, quick out of the box and never really slowing down, the unstoppable force in search of an immovable object. He covers ground in center thanks to his running speed, but injuries have kept him out of center and sometimes out of the lineup a ton since he entered pro ball. He might end up in a corner just because it would keep him healthier.
His style of play doesn't keep him out of the trainer's room either, similar to the less physical Chris Snelling, whose career was derailed by an unceasing litany of injuries. If Heathcott can dial it down a notch and get to 400 plate appearances this year -- which he hasn't reached in his three full seasons of pro ball -- he'll make a big move up this list.
58 Trevor Rosenthal
Age: 22 (DOB: May 29, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '12 Level: Majors (Cardinals)
2012 ranking: Just missed
GM20
IP109
W8
L6
ERA2.97
SO104
BB42
H78
HR7
BAA.175
Rosenthal announced his presence to everyone with his relief work in the majors in September, when he legitimately hit 100 mph out of the bullpen, a tick better than he shows out of the rotation. Not bad for a player drafted in the 21st round by area scout Aaron Looper, who saw Rosenthal, a converted shortstop, throw one inning in a junior college tournament.
Rosenthal has two great attributes to keep him in the rotation -- that big fastball, more 92-97 when he's starting, and the athleticism that allows him to repeat his delivery even with some effort and to locate his fastball around the zone. His arm is so quick that everything he throws is hard, sometimes compromising break or movement. His slider touched 92 once in the majors last year, and even at its usual 88-90, it's more like a big cutter than a true slider; his changeup is closer to a BP fastball; his curve has the strongest definition, right around 80-81 mph with downward break.
He doesn't need all those pitches to improve as a starter, but two of the three would be nice. He's athletic enough and inexperienced enough that it's not just idle hope, and he has already shown his floor as an impact bullpen arm is very high.
59 Oswaldo Arcia
Age: 21 (DOB: May 9, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: RF Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: AA (New Britain)
2012 ranking: 85
GM124
AB469
HR17
RBI98
SB4
SO107
BB51
AVG.320
OBP.388
SLG.539
Arcia took another step forward offensively in 2012 while shifting primarily to right field, a result of Aaron Hicks' presence in Double-A New Britain and Arcia's inevitable move to a corner.
He also had the longest season of his career, passing his previous single-year high of 316 plate appearances. Arcia's hands are explosive enough that he has a harder time getting them through airport security than through the strike zone, a little busy as he loads with a downward move but a late move into a strong position followed by a great path that's direct to the ball with great extension for 25-plus homer power down the road. He hit 17 bombs last year, although his line was inflated a little by a friendly home park. A full year in Triple-A will give us a better read on how far away he is from translating that hand speed into real power.
Arcia was always destined for right field, but if he has the kind of power I expect from him, he'll be an above-average regular and occasional All-Star.
60 Casey Kelly
Age: 23 (DOB: Oct. 4, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '12 Level: Majors (San Diego)
2012 ranking: 32
GM8
IP37.2
W0
L2
ERA3.35
SO39
BB3
H33
HR1
BAA.229
Kelly made just eight minor league starts in 2012, three of them rehab outings around an elbow injury that didn't require surgery but interrupted what looked like a breakthrough season for the former Tennessee quarterback recruit.
He is the best fielding-pitching prospect I've ever seen, a superlative athlete with an easy delivery who will show three above-average to plus pitches, but he gets hit far more often than someone with all of these attributes should. The Padres moved him to the first-base side of the rubber late in 2011 so he could get more life to his glove side and stay out of the middle of the plate, but hitters still get good looks at the four-seamer. Everything Kelly threw in the majors finished too far up in the zone.
There's too much raw material to write Kelly off, but he won't come close to his potential unless he learns to pitch down and perhaps switches to a two-seamer or sinker to avoid hard contact on the fastball.
61 Alex Meyer
Age: 23 (DOB: Jan. 3, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: A (Potomac)
2012 ranking: Just missed
GM25
IP129
W10
L6
ERA2.86
SO139
BB45
H97
HR6
BAA.211
Meyer was ninth on my board heading into the 2011 draft but slid to the 23rd overall pick due both to concerns about his price tag and whether he could get his 6-foot-9 frame under control enough to remain a starter in pro ball.
I can understand the motivation to put Meyer in the 'pen, where he's going to be 96-99 or so with a 70 slider (on the 20-80 scale). But the potential for a high-strikeout starter, even if he walks a few more guys than you'd like, is too much to ignore. Meyer works from a low three-quarters arm slot and is more 92-97 as a starter with great life, and that slider is still plus with hard, late tilt, a pitch he can even use against left-handers. His changeup has improved since college but is still usually too hard, and command will probably always be his Achilles' heel even if his control gets to average.
Meyer's performance last year came largely against inferior hitters in the low Class A Sally League, but he's ready for Double-A. The Twins' lack of impact starter prospects should push them to give him another two full years, if not more, to prove he can't do it.
62 Justin Nicolino
Age: 21 (DOB: Nov. 22, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Miami Marlins
Top '12 Level: A (Lansing)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM28
IP124.1
W10
L4
ERA2.46
SO119
BB21
H112
HR6
BAA.241
If you don't like Nicolino, you see a lefty with an average fastball and breaking ball, better changeup and no projection, making him a back-end finesse guy. If you like him, you see shades of Cole Hamels with a potential out pitch in the change and feel for pitching well beyond his age.
The Hamels comparison comes up a lot because of the changeup and the lack of a big fastball, with Nicolino sitting at 88-92 and unlikely to move up more than a mile or two an hour from that. He has an average breaking ball, but the changeup is the separator. It's really a silly pitch, with great deception so that it looks just like the fastball coming out of that slot just under three-quarter, with a little late fade to finish off hitters who weren't fooled by the release. He pounds the zone with all three pitches, walking just 21 of 494 batters faced in the Midwest League while still missing bats.
I don't think Nicolino becomes an ace like Hamels -- if I did, I'd have him rated higher -- but I do think he becomes an above-average starter because he has so many positives, including a legitimate out pitch, in his favor.
63 Allen Webster
Age: 22 (DOB: Feb. 10, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '12 Level: AA (Portland)
2012 ranking: 61
2012 MINORS STATS
GM29
IP130.2
W6
L9
ERA3.86
SO129
BB61
H133
HR2
BAA.265
Webster will show three plus pitches and looks like he should be at or near the top of someone's rotation, but as a converted position player, he has struggled to develop enough fastball command to translate the raw stuff into on-field success.
He will sit at 94 mph with his fastball and can reach 97 with plus sink that led to a 2:1 groundout-to-fly out ratio in Double-A this year, pairing it with a swing-and-miss changeup with good action and a slider that will flash plus but isn't as consistent as the other two pitches. As you'd expect from a former shortstop, he is athletic and can repeat his delivery well, but he lacks the feel for pitching that he'll need to succeed as a starter even at Triple-A, both in terms of just throwing strikes and in using and mixing his pitches more effectively.
The Red Sox were thrilled to get him from the Dodgers in the Adrian Gonzalez/Carl Crawford/Josh Beckett blockbuster that also netted Rubby De La Rosa (no longer eligible for this list) and view Webster as a potential No. 2 starter. I see that ceiling, but a lot of work between here and there.
64 Arodys Vizcaino
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 13, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '12 Level: DNP (Injured)
2012 ranking: 14
2011 MINORS STATS
GM26
IP97
W5
L5
ERA3.06
SO100
BB28
H82
HR7
BAA.225
Vizcaino entered 2012 with a partial ligament tear in his right elbow, and in March he underwent surgery to repair it, ending his season before it began, although he did find himself part of a midyear trade from the Braves to the Cubs in exchange for Paul Maholm.
When healthy, Vizcaino has electric stuff, a top-of-the-rotation arsenal with a lightning-quick arm, needing work on command and refinement on his changeup a little further to reach that potential -- and, of course, to stay healthy.
Before the surgery, Vizcaino would work at 92-96 as a starter and hit 98 when he worked in relief for Atlanta late in 2011. The pitch doesn't sink but does have late life up in the zone. He has a hard curveball that works at near-slider velocity with hard two-plane break and good depth. The changeup has good arm speed, and improving it is a question of feel, something he'll get with reps. His arm works well aside from a lack of extension out front, and he gets on top of the ball enough to get that depth on the breaking ball.
The Cubs will likely bring him back slowly this year, so if he appears in the majors at all in 2013, I'd speculate that it would be in relief, with a rotation spot by mid-2014 a more realistic goal.
65 Eddie Rosario
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 28, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: 2B/CF Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: A (Beloit)
2012 ranking: 50
2012 MINORS STATS
GM100
AB411
HR13
RBI74
SB11
SO71
BB32
AVG.299
OBP.347
SLG.499
Rosario can hit and play center field, but the Twins are trying to maximize his value by converting him to second base due to an abundance of center-field depth in the system. It's an experiment that produced mixed results at best in 2012 but that should continue for at least another year.
He can run and throw well enough to handle center. At second, he has the hands for the position, but footwork has been a chronic issue, with his likely ceiling on defense as a solid-average defender who doesn't cost the team any runs.
Rosario's real value is at the plate, where he has quick hands and a good two-strike approach. He doesn't walk much, so while there's a plan at the plate, Step 3 is always "put it in play." (That's better than having that as Step 1.) He keeps his weight back well enough to show good doubles power and projects as a 15-homer guy, maybe a touch better, down the road. For a 55 runner, he's pretty useless at base stealing, another aspect of his game that could improve with instruction but that, right now, isn't present.
It's an odd mix of skills, but his floor is an everyday center fielder who hits .280 with 40 doubles with a ceiling of a second baseman who has a little more power than that and can add some value through baserunning.
66 Danny Hultzen
Age: 23 (DOB: Nov. 28, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '12 Level: AAA (Tacoma)
2012 ranking: 30
2012 MINORS STATS
GM25
IP124
W9
L7
ERA3.05
SO136
BB75
H87
HR4
BAA.197
Hultzen went straight to Double-A in his first full pro season and had no trouble with the level (1.19 ERA in 13 starts), earning a promotion to Triple-A. That's where things went past sour to indigestible, with Hultzen unable to finish an inning in one of his final starts and walking over a man an inning in his final seven outings. He finished with a 5.92 ERA in 12 starts at that level.
He was always a command guy who got deception from a slightly low slot and could miss bats with his changeup while locating his short slider well enough to make up for its lack of a hard break. He'll sit 88-92, occasionally showing a little more, and had a long history of throwing strikes -- until he reached Tacoma -- despite some funk in his arm action, including a noticeable arm wrap in back.
Hultzen always cut himself off a little rather than landing straight in line to the plate, but when I saw him in Triple-A, he was cutting himself off more than ever and couldn't locate to his glove side at all. That should be an easy fix, and if that's the only issue, he should get back on track and would still project as a solid No. 3 starter.
67 Zach Lee
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 13, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers
Top '12 Level: AA (Chattanooga)
2012 ranking: 41
2012 MINORS STATS
GM25
IP121
W6
L6
ERA4.39
SO103
BB32
H129
HR15
BAA.271
Lee reminds me a lot of Padres farmhand Casey Kelly, another highly athletic pitcher and former prep quarterback who did everything easily -- but in Kelly's case, the great scouting reports haven't translated to enough pro success.
Lee had little trouble with the high Class A Cal League, once you consider the environments where he pitched (of his nine homers allowed, six were home at Rancho Cucamonga and two were at Lancaster, both hitters' paradises), and the Dodgers promoted him to Double-A after June.
After getting knocked around some in his first five starts thanks to poor command and control, Lee found another gear, posting a 1.97 ERA over his final eight starts with just nine unintentional walks and 35 strikeouts. He is working with mostly average stuff, a little better on the fastball and the changeup, which has good action. His slider is ahead of his curveball, but neither is an above-average pitch.
I keep expecting Lee's stuff to tick upward, since he is athletic and projectable and does everything so easily, but he might be more of a lower-ceiling but very high-floor guy. He fills the zone with three pitches but doesn't have an out pitch to make him more than a good midrotation guy.
68 Jake Odorizzi
Age: 22 (DOB: March 27, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '12 Level: Majors (Royals)
2012 ranking: 71
2012 MINORS STATS
GM26
IP145.1
W15
L5
ERA3.03
SO135
BB50
H132
HR14
BAA.238
Odorizzi went to Tampa Bay in the James Shields trade, which also brought No. 4 prospect Wil Myers to the Rays and former top 100 prospect Mike Montgomery, a lefty who still has arm strength and a good changeup but who has lost all command over the past two years.
Odorizzi doesn't have quite the raw stuff of Montgomery, but he floods the zone with strikes, using four pitches, none plus, with enough of an arsenal to develop into an innings guy in the middle of a rotation. Odorizzi's four-seamer is mostly 90-94, and while he commands it well, it's very flat and is the main reason why Odorizzi has become a severe fly ball guy as he's moved up the chain.
His change is his best secondary pitch, hard enough that it runs rather than fades, with excellent deception -- something Odorizzi gets from a slightly short arm action that hides the ball from hitters. He throws both a slider and a curve, but the slider is more likely to miss right-handers' bats in the majors, at 82-84 with decent tilt. He might have to switch to a two-seamer or just pitch less off the fastball to avoid becoming homer-prone.
I love his athleticism and how easily he throws, which makes him look like a future 200-inning guy, if he can keep the ball in the park.
69 Nick Franklin
Age: 21 (DOB: March 2, 1991)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '12 Level: AAA (Tacoma)
2012 ranking: 57
2012 MINORS STATS
GM121
AB472
HR11
RBI55
SB12
SO106
BB48
AVG.278
OBP.347
SLG.453
Franklin returned to Double-A a year after injuries and mono ruined his first stint there and tore the league up for 230 plate appearances before moving up to Triple-A where, at age 21, he looked a little overmatched.
He has two major questions left to determine what his ceiling is: whether he can stay at short, and what happens when he finally gives up switch-hitting. Franklin's tools are a little light for shortstop, but he's always made up for it somewhat with great positioning and reads off the bat, enough that he could become an average or fringe-average defender there in time. He'd be more than adequate at second base given enough reps at the position.
As a hitter, he's close to useless hitting right-handed, but he hits for average and power from the left side, even with some drift to his front side, compensating with good hand-eye coordination and strong wrists. The floor is a second baseman who saves several runs on defense and hits for average with 10-15 homers; the ceiling is a shortstop whose glove doesn't hurt you but might creep up toward 20 bombs if hitting exclusively left-handed boosts his overall line.
70 Jedd Gyorko
Age: 24 (DOB: Sept. 23, 1988)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '12 Level: AAA (Tucson)
2012 ranking: 90
2012 MINORS STATS
GM126
AB499
HR30
RBI100
SB5
SO95
BB51
AVG.311
OBP.373
SLG.547
Gyorko doesn't look the part of a third baseman, or any kind of infielder, but he has worked enough to max out the defense he can get from his blocky physique, allowing him to stay at a position where his bat should make him an above-average regular.
Despite the gaudy Triple-A line, I see Gyorko as more of a hitter for average than a power guy because he is so balanced at the plate with minimal weight transfer or torque from hip rotation. He has very good hand-eye coordination and a solid enough approach to be a .300 hitter at his peak with .360-plus OBP, although I see him as a 15-homer guy instead of a 25-homer one. NL third basemen hit .270/.333/.433 in 2012, a line Gyorko would likely beat in 2013 if he could play every day in a neutral park -- although neither of those things is happening unless someone is traded in the next 60 days.
Because he's blocked at third by Chase Headley, Gyorko has spent some time at second base, a position I don't think he can handle full time without hurting the club or himself. He might be waiting for an opportunity to show he can be a valuable every-day guy.
Age: 21 (DOB: Nov. 22, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Miami Marlins
Top '12 Level: A (Lansing)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM28
IP124.1
W10
L4
ERA2.46
SO119
BB21
H112
HR6
BAA.241
If you don't like Nicolino, you see a lefty with an average fastball and breaking ball, better changeup and no projection, making him a back-end finesse guy. If you like him, you see shades of Cole Hamels with a potential out pitch in the change and feel for pitching well beyond his age.
The Hamels comparison comes up a lot because of the changeup and the lack of a big fastball, with Nicolino sitting at 88-92 and unlikely to move up more than a mile or two an hour from that. He has an average breaking ball, but the changeup is the separator. It's really a silly pitch, with great deception so that it looks just like the fastball coming out of that slot just under three-quarter, with a little late fade to finish off hitters who weren't fooled by the release. He pounds the zone with all three pitches, walking just 21 of 494 batters faced in the Midwest League while still missing bats.
I don't think Nicolino becomes an ace like Hamels -- if I did, I'd have him rated higher -- but I do think he becomes an above-average starter because he has so many positives, including a legitimate out pitch, in his favor.
63 Allen Webster
Age: 22 (DOB: Feb. 10, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '12 Level: AA (Portland)
2012 ranking: 61
2012 MINORS STATS
GM29
IP130.2
W6
L9
ERA3.86
SO129
BB61
H133
HR2
BAA.265
Webster will show three plus pitches and looks like he should be at or near the top of someone's rotation, but as a converted position player, he has struggled to develop enough fastball command to translate the raw stuff into on-field success.
He will sit at 94 mph with his fastball and can reach 97 with plus sink that led to a 2:1 groundout-to-fly out ratio in Double-A this year, pairing it with a swing-and-miss changeup with good action and a slider that will flash plus but isn't as consistent as the other two pitches. As you'd expect from a former shortstop, he is athletic and can repeat his delivery well, but he lacks the feel for pitching that he'll need to succeed as a starter even at Triple-A, both in terms of just throwing strikes and in using and mixing his pitches more effectively.
The Red Sox were thrilled to get him from the Dodgers in the Adrian Gonzalez/Carl Crawford/Josh Beckett blockbuster that also netted Rubby De La Rosa (no longer eligible for this list) and view Webster as a potential No. 2 starter. I see that ceiling, but a lot of work between here and there.
64 Arodys Vizcaino
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 13, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Chicago Cubs
Top '12 Level: DNP (Injured)
2012 ranking: 14
2011 MINORS STATS
GM26
IP97
W5
L5
ERA3.06
SO100
BB28
H82
HR7
BAA.225
Vizcaino entered 2012 with a partial ligament tear in his right elbow, and in March he underwent surgery to repair it, ending his season before it began, although he did find himself part of a midyear trade from the Braves to the Cubs in exchange for Paul Maholm.
When healthy, Vizcaino has electric stuff, a top-of-the-rotation arsenal with a lightning-quick arm, needing work on command and refinement on his changeup a little further to reach that potential -- and, of course, to stay healthy.
Before the surgery, Vizcaino would work at 92-96 as a starter and hit 98 when he worked in relief for Atlanta late in 2011. The pitch doesn't sink but does have late life up in the zone. He has a hard curveball that works at near-slider velocity with hard two-plane break and good depth. The changeup has good arm speed, and improving it is a question of feel, something he'll get with reps. His arm works well aside from a lack of extension out front, and he gets on top of the ball enough to get that depth on the breaking ball.
The Cubs will likely bring him back slowly this year, so if he appears in the majors at all in 2013, I'd speculate that it would be in relief, with a rotation spot by mid-2014 a more realistic goal.
65 Eddie Rosario
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 28, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: 2B/CF Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: A (Beloit)
2012 ranking: 50
2012 MINORS STATS
GM100
AB411
HR13
RBI74
SB11
SO71
BB32
AVG.299
OBP.347
SLG.499
Rosario can hit and play center field, but the Twins are trying to maximize his value by converting him to second base due to an abundance of center-field depth in the system. It's an experiment that produced mixed results at best in 2012 but that should continue for at least another year.
He can run and throw well enough to handle center. At second, he has the hands for the position, but footwork has been a chronic issue, with his likely ceiling on defense as a solid-average defender who doesn't cost the team any runs.
Rosario's real value is at the plate, where he has quick hands and a good two-strike approach. He doesn't walk much, so while there's a plan at the plate, Step 3 is always "put it in play." (That's better than having that as Step 1.) He keeps his weight back well enough to show good doubles power and projects as a 15-homer guy, maybe a touch better, down the road. For a 55 runner, he's pretty useless at base stealing, another aspect of his game that could improve with instruction but that, right now, isn't present.
It's an odd mix of skills, but his floor is an everyday center fielder who hits .280 with 40 doubles with a ceiling of a second baseman who has a little more power than that and can add some value through baserunning.
66 Danny Hultzen
Age: 23 (DOB: Nov. 28, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '12 Level: AAA (Tacoma)
2012 ranking: 30
2012 MINORS STATS
GM25
IP124
W9
L7
ERA3.05
SO136
BB75
H87
HR4
BAA.197
Hultzen went straight to Double-A in his first full pro season and had no trouble with the level (1.19 ERA in 13 starts), earning a promotion to Triple-A. That's where things went past sour to indigestible, with Hultzen unable to finish an inning in one of his final starts and walking over a man an inning in his final seven outings. He finished with a 5.92 ERA in 12 starts at that level.
He was always a command guy who got deception from a slightly low slot and could miss bats with his changeup while locating his short slider well enough to make up for its lack of a hard break. He'll sit 88-92, occasionally showing a little more, and had a long history of throwing strikes -- until he reached Tacoma -- despite some funk in his arm action, including a noticeable arm wrap in back.
Hultzen always cut himself off a little rather than landing straight in line to the plate, but when I saw him in Triple-A, he was cutting himself off more than ever and couldn't locate to his glove side at all. That should be an easy fix, and if that's the only issue, he should get back on track and would still project as a solid No. 3 starter.
67 Zach Lee
Age: 21 (DOB: Sept. 13, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Los Angeles Dodgers
Top '12 Level: AA (Chattanooga)
2012 ranking: 41
2012 MINORS STATS
GM25
IP121
W6
L6
ERA4.39
SO103
BB32
H129
HR15
BAA.271
Lee reminds me a lot of Padres farmhand Casey Kelly, another highly athletic pitcher and former prep quarterback who did everything easily -- but in Kelly's case, the great scouting reports haven't translated to enough pro success.
Lee had little trouble with the high Class A Cal League, once you consider the environments where he pitched (of his nine homers allowed, six were home at Rancho Cucamonga and two were at Lancaster, both hitters' paradises), and the Dodgers promoted him to Double-A after June.
After getting knocked around some in his first five starts thanks to poor command and control, Lee found another gear, posting a 1.97 ERA over his final eight starts with just nine unintentional walks and 35 strikeouts. He is working with mostly average stuff, a little better on the fastball and the changeup, which has good action. His slider is ahead of his curveball, but neither is an above-average pitch.
I keep expecting Lee's stuff to tick upward, since he is athletic and projectable and does everything so easily, but he might be more of a lower-ceiling but very high-floor guy. He fills the zone with three pitches but doesn't have an out pitch to make him more than a good midrotation guy.
68 Jake Odorizzi
Age: 22 (DOB: March 27, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '12 Level: Majors (Royals)
2012 ranking: 71
2012 MINORS STATS
GM26
IP145.1
W15
L5
ERA3.03
SO135
BB50
H132
HR14
BAA.238
Odorizzi went to Tampa Bay in the James Shields trade, which also brought No. 4 prospect Wil Myers to the Rays and former top 100 prospect Mike Montgomery, a lefty who still has arm strength and a good changeup but who has lost all command over the past two years.
Odorizzi doesn't have quite the raw stuff of Montgomery, but he floods the zone with strikes, using four pitches, none plus, with enough of an arsenal to develop into an innings guy in the middle of a rotation. Odorizzi's four-seamer is mostly 90-94, and while he commands it well, it's very flat and is the main reason why Odorizzi has become a severe fly ball guy as he's moved up the chain.
His change is his best secondary pitch, hard enough that it runs rather than fades, with excellent deception -- something Odorizzi gets from a slightly short arm action that hides the ball from hitters. He throws both a slider and a curve, but the slider is more likely to miss right-handers' bats in the majors, at 82-84 with decent tilt. He might have to switch to a two-seamer or just pitch less off the fastball to avoid becoming homer-prone.
I love his athleticism and how easily he throws, which makes him look like a future 200-inning guy, if he can keep the ball in the park.
69 Nick Franklin
Age: 21 (DOB: March 2, 1991)
Bats: Both Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Seattle Mariners
Top '12 Level: AAA (Tacoma)
2012 ranking: 57
2012 MINORS STATS
GM121
AB472
HR11
RBI55
SB12
SO106
BB48
AVG.278
OBP.347
SLG.453
Franklin returned to Double-A a year after injuries and mono ruined his first stint there and tore the league up for 230 plate appearances before moving up to Triple-A where, at age 21, he looked a little overmatched.
He has two major questions left to determine what his ceiling is: whether he can stay at short, and what happens when he finally gives up switch-hitting. Franklin's tools are a little light for shortstop, but he's always made up for it somewhat with great positioning and reads off the bat, enough that he could become an average or fringe-average defender there in time. He'd be more than adequate at second base given enough reps at the position.
As a hitter, he's close to useless hitting right-handed, but he hits for average and power from the left side, even with some drift to his front side, compensating with good hand-eye coordination and strong wrists. The floor is a second baseman who saves several runs on defense and hits for average with 10-15 homers; the ceiling is a shortstop whose glove doesn't hurt you but might creep up toward 20 bombs if hitting exclusively left-handed boosts his overall line.
70 Jedd Gyorko
Age: 24 (DOB: Sept. 23, 1988)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '12 Level: AAA (Tucson)
2012 ranking: 90
2012 MINORS STATS
GM126
AB499
HR30
RBI100
SB5
SO95
BB51
AVG.311
OBP.373
SLG.547
Gyorko doesn't look the part of a third baseman, or any kind of infielder, but he has worked enough to max out the defense he can get from his blocky physique, allowing him to stay at a position where his bat should make him an above-average regular.
Despite the gaudy Triple-A line, I see Gyorko as more of a hitter for average than a power guy because he is so balanced at the plate with minimal weight transfer or torque from hip rotation. He has very good hand-eye coordination and a solid enough approach to be a .300 hitter at his peak with .360-plus OBP, although I see him as a 15-homer guy instead of a 25-homer one. NL third basemen hit .270/.333/.433 in 2012, a line Gyorko would likely beat in 2013 if he could play every day in a neutral park -- although neither of those things is happening unless someone is traded in the next 60 days.
Because he's blocked at third by Chase Headley, Gyorko has spent some time at second base, a position I don't think he can handle full time without hurting the club or himself. He might be waiting for an opportunity to show he can be a valuable every-day guy.
71 Mike Olt
Age: 24 (DOB: Aug. 27, 1988)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '12 Level: Majors (Rangers)
2012 ranking: 75
2012 MINORS STATS
GM95
AB354
HR28
RBI82
SB4
SO101
BB61
AVG.288
OBP.398
SLG.579
Olt's big league debut could have gone better, as he swung and missed a lot (13 K's in 33 at-bats) when he was able to get into the Rangers' lineup, but he's also the team's main trading chip and might have to wait for a deal to get his chance to play third base every day.
A poor defensive shortstop in college at UConn, Olt has remade himself into a plus defender at third, and he has big raw power that could produce 30-plus bombs a year if he makes enough contact. That's the main question on Olt at this point. Contact rates were an issue for him in college, and between Double-A and the majors last year, it's resurfaced to the point where he's probably going to be a low-to-moderate batting average guy who draws 60-70 walks a year and hits 20-25 homers.
The swing-and-miss problem isn't from his swing, though, which has gotten more direct since college, so perhaps he just needs more reps -- he had just over 600 pro plate appearances coming into 2012 -- to get past it.
72 Daniel Corcino
Age: 22 (DOB: Aug. 26, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '12 Level: AA (Pensacola)
2012 ranking: 54
2012 MINORS STATS
GM26
IP143.1
W8
L8
ERA3.01
SO126
BB65
H111
HR9
BAA.216
Corcino had a solid year after making a two-level jump to Double-A, with a modest strikeout rate and high fly ball rate both serving as red flags for his future.
He will pitch with a solid-average fastball up to 94 and a touch better than that, effective when he finishes his delivery but a problem when he pulls off too much and starts missing to his glove side. His changeup is ahead of his slider; the change has great arm speed and hard tailing action, while the slider is more of an average pitch with some tilt. He comes from a slot under three-quarters and has a tendency to throw across his body. Between that, the fly ball tendency and his habit of working too much off the fastball, there's some sentiment that Corcino ends up in the 'pen.
He's just 22, with three average or better pitches and two full healthy seasons as a starter under his belt, more than enough to project him as a solid No. 3 given enough time, even if the Reds' home run-friendly park isn't the ideal place for him.
73 Wily Peralta
Age: 23 (DOB: May 8, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Milwaukee Brewers
Top '12 Level: Majors (Brewers)
2012 ranking: 39
2012 MINORS STATS
GM28
IP146.2
W7
L11
ERA4.66
SO143
BB78
H154
HR9
BAA.275
Peralta's drop on this list is almost entirely a function of his control troubles in Triple-A, as he still has the same arsenal he did a year ago, with the secondary stuff slightly better.
He will sit in the mid-90s with good downhill plane, generating ground balls and working well to both sides of the plate. His breaking ball and changeup continue to improve, both good enough to miss Triple-A bats even though he doesn't command either well enough yet. He is his own worst enemy on the mound, often reacting to adversity by trying to throw harder, reaching 98-99 but seeing his stuff flatten out in the process.
Even in the majors, he was much worse from the stretch than from the windup (.217 BAA with bases empty versus .282 with runners on), again trying to do too much when he was in trouble. The raw materials are there for a No. 2 starter, but he'll have to throw more strikes and keep his cool on the mound.
74 Courtney Hawkins
Age: 19 (DOB: Nov. 12, 1993)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: OF Organization: Chicago White Sox
Top '12 Level: A (Winston-Salem)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM59
AB229
HR8
RBI33
SB11
SO56
BB11
AVG.284
OBP.324
SLG.480
The White Sox haven't had a teenage prospect like Hawkins in some time, and they handled him aggressively, pushing him to low Class A after just 38 games in the Appy League and moving him to high-A for the season's final week and the playoffs.
He is very strong and physical for his age, built like a running back with outstanding hand acceleration at the plate, big hip rotation to produce power and less projection than your typical 19-year-old has.
He'll need to work on off-speed recognition and repeating his swing for greater consistency, as well as improving his two-strike approach, all things you'd expect a somewhat raw prep kid to have to do in pro ball.
He has a plus arm and will be an above-average defender in right given reps out there, with solid-average running speed as well. He could be an impact hitter given three or four years to develop, and he's the most exciting hitting prospect the White Sox have had since, well, in a really long time.
75 Matt Davidson
Age: 21 (DOB: March 26, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Top '12 Level: AA (Mobile)
2012 ranking: 82
2012 MINORS STATS
GM135
AB486
HR23
RBI76
SB3
SO126
BB69
AVG.261
OBP.367
SLG.469
Davidson just keeps chugging along, drawing walks, hitting for some power, playing an adequate third base and not getting a ton of respect for it -- understandable, as there's nothing flashy about his game.
He has a great, smooth right-handed swing that looks like it should produce more doubles power than home runs, although the 23 bombs he hit in Mobile this year were a new career high. He has improved at third base to the point where he's playable there, and if the Diamondbacks don't re-sign Martin Prado, they should feel confident handing the job to Davidson. His bat speed isn't great, so the keys to his success are maintaining his plate discipline and hand-eye coordination.
A neutral-defense third baseman with 20-homer power who draws 70 walks a year is a solid player, and Davidson might be grow up to be more than that given how young he has been for everywhere he's played.
Age: 24 (DOB: Aug. 27, 1988)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '12 Level: Majors (Rangers)
2012 ranking: 75
2012 MINORS STATS
GM95
AB354
HR28
RBI82
SB4
SO101
BB61
AVG.288
OBP.398
SLG.579
Olt's big league debut could have gone better, as he swung and missed a lot (13 K's in 33 at-bats) when he was able to get into the Rangers' lineup, but he's also the team's main trading chip and might have to wait for a deal to get his chance to play third base every day.
A poor defensive shortstop in college at UConn, Olt has remade himself into a plus defender at third, and he has big raw power that could produce 30-plus bombs a year if he makes enough contact. That's the main question on Olt at this point. Contact rates were an issue for him in college, and between Double-A and the majors last year, it's resurfaced to the point where he's probably going to be a low-to-moderate batting average guy who draws 60-70 walks a year and hits 20-25 homers.
The swing-and-miss problem isn't from his swing, though, which has gotten more direct since college, so perhaps he just needs more reps -- he had just over 600 pro plate appearances coming into 2012 -- to get past it.
72 Daniel Corcino
Age: 22 (DOB: Aug. 26, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '12 Level: AA (Pensacola)
2012 ranking: 54
2012 MINORS STATS
GM26
IP143.1
W8
L8
ERA3.01
SO126
BB65
H111
HR9
BAA.216
Corcino had a solid year after making a two-level jump to Double-A, with a modest strikeout rate and high fly ball rate both serving as red flags for his future.
He will pitch with a solid-average fastball up to 94 and a touch better than that, effective when he finishes his delivery but a problem when he pulls off too much and starts missing to his glove side. His changeup is ahead of his slider; the change has great arm speed and hard tailing action, while the slider is more of an average pitch with some tilt. He comes from a slot under three-quarters and has a tendency to throw across his body. Between that, the fly ball tendency and his habit of working too much off the fastball, there's some sentiment that Corcino ends up in the 'pen.
He's just 22, with three average or better pitches and two full healthy seasons as a starter under his belt, more than enough to project him as a solid No. 3 given enough time, even if the Reds' home run-friendly park isn't the ideal place for him.
73 Wily Peralta
Age: 23 (DOB: May 8, 1989)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Milwaukee Brewers
Top '12 Level: Majors (Brewers)
2012 ranking: 39
2012 MINORS STATS
GM28
IP146.2
W7
L11
ERA4.66
SO143
BB78
H154
HR9
BAA.275
Peralta's drop on this list is almost entirely a function of his control troubles in Triple-A, as he still has the same arsenal he did a year ago, with the secondary stuff slightly better.
He will sit in the mid-90s with good downhill plane, generating ground balls and working well to both sides of the plate. His breaking ball and changeup continue to improve, both good enough to miss Triple-A bats even though he doesn't command either well enough yet. He is his own worst enemy on the mound, often reacting to adversity by trying to throw harder, reaching 98-99 but seeing his stuff flatten out in the process.
Even in the majors, he was much worse from the stretch than from the windup (.217 BAA with bases empty versus .282 with runners on), again trying to do too much when he was in trouble. The raw materials are there for a No. 2 starter, but he'll have to throw more strikes and keep his cool on the mound.
74 Courtney Hawkins
Age: 19 (DOB: Nov. 12, 1993)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: OF Organization: Chicago White Sox
Top '12 Level: A (Winston-Salem)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM59
AB229
HR8
RBI33
SB11
SO56
BB11
AVG.284
OBP.324
SLG.480
The White Sox haven't had a teenage prospect like Hawkins in some time, and they handled him aggressively, pushing him to low Class A after just 38 games in the Appy League and moving him to high-A for the season's final week and the playoffs.
He is very strong and physical for his age, built like a running back with outstanding hand acceleration at the plate, big hip rotation to produce power and less projection than your typical 19-year-old has.
He'll need to work on off-speed recognition and repeating his swing for greater consistency, as well as improving his two-strike approach, all things you'd expect a somewhat raw prep kid to have to do in pro ball.
He has a plus arm and will be an above-average defender in right given reps out there, with solid-average running speed as well. He could be an impact hitter given three or four years to develop, and he's the most exciting hitting prospect the White Sox have had since, well, in a really long time.
75 Matt Davidson
Age: 21 (DOB: March 26, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 3B Organization: Arizona Diamondbacks
Top '12 Level: AA (Mobile)
2012 ranking: 82
2012 MINORS STATS
GM135
AB486
HR23
RBI76
SB3
SO126
BB69
AVG.261
OBP.367
SLG.469
Davidson just keeps chugging along, drawing walks, hitting for some power, playing an adequate third base and not getting a ton of respect for it -- understandable, as there's nothing flashy about his game.
He has a great, smooth right-handed swing that looks like it should produce more doubles power than home runs, although the 23 bombs he hit in Mobile this year were a new career high. He has improved at third base to the point where he's playable there, and if the Diamondbacks don't re-sign Martin Prado, they should feel confident handing the job to Davidson. His bat speed isn't great, so the keys to his success are maintaining his plate discipline and hand-eye coordination.
A neutral-defense third baseman with 20-homer power who draws 70 walks a year is a solid player, and Davidson might be grow up to be more than that given how young he has been for everywhere he's played.
Ranking the top prospects (76-100)
76 Kyle Crick
Age: 20 (DOB: Nov. 30, 1992)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: San Francisco Giants
Top '12 Level: A (Augusta)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM23
IP111.1
W7
L6
ERA2.51
SO128
BB67
H75
HR1
BAA.193
Crick was the Giants' second-round pick in 2011, a Texas prep righty with a first-round arm but enough doubt that he could remain a starter to push him down in the draft. He hasn't answered all of those questions yet, but there's at least a higher chance now that he can start and end up a No. 2 in someone's rotation.
He'll pitch at 91-95, touching 97, and has a hard curveball in the upper 70s that almost tilts like a slider and is his primary out pitch. He's got a too-hard changeup without any action but has been developing a cutter that could help take the changeup's place as a weapon against lefties. There's effort in Crick's delivery, but it's not violent and nothing he can't learn to repeat; until he does, however, the command and control to be a starter won't be there.
He needs repetitions but not mechanical changes, other than working on staying on top of the ball rather than getting on the side of it, with that high-end starter upside if he can locate the fastball more consistently.
77 Lucas Giolito
Age: 18 (DOB: July 14, 1994)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Washington Nationals
Top '12 Level: Rookie (GCL)
2012 ranking: IE
2012 MINORS STATS
GM1
IP2
W0
L0
ERA4.50
SO1
BB0
H2
HR0
BAA.286
Giolito might have been the first high school right-hander selected first overall in the amateur draft had he not suffered a small tear in his right UCL, an injury that ended up requiring Tommy John surgery in July after he signed and threw two pro innings.
Before the initial injury, Giolito hit 100 mph working as a starter, sitting 93-98 with a hammer curveball that he could manipulate to get more or less angle. He'd become more aggressive with better command in his senior year, showing great maturity for a 17-year-old who was already on the map because of his size and arm strength.
He'll need to work on his changeup and I'm sure pro hitters will force him to refine his fastball command, which just requires reps he won't get until late this summer. If he comes back fully healthy and can pitch a little this year, he'll move up into the top 20 in 2014, and perhaps in the high end of that group.
78 Hak-Ju Lee
Age: 22 (DOB: Nov. 4, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '12 Level: AA (Montgomery)
2012 ranking: 12
2012 MINORS STATS
GM116
AB475
HR4
RBI37
SB37
SO102
BB51
AVG.261
OBP.336
SLG.360
Lee had an abysmal start to the year at the plate before the Rays got him to keep his hands back before his swing, stopping them from leaking forward, which was producing weaker contact and more whiffs.
After that, he had a strong two months before an August oblique injury ended his summer prematurely, but when he came to the Arizona Fall League, the leaking problem was worse than ever, leaving him cutting through the ball instead of staying back on it, and pitchers ate him alive with velocity.
He has a good eye, but that's only so useful when you can't hit many of the strikes you see. Lee is a plus defensive shortstop with a 70 arm and is a 70 runner who has improved his ability to translate that speed into baserunning value, so he'll play in the big leagues, probably everyday. Whether he's a stopgap or a long-term solution depends on the bat. The answer is in his hands.
79 Matt Barnes
Age: 22 (DOB: June 17, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Boston Red Sox
Top '12 Level: A (Salem)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM25
IP119.2
W7
L5
ERA2.86
SO133
BB29
H97
HR6
BAA.225
Barnes shocked a lot of scouts this year with the leap forward in his fastball command, working with it up and down, side to side, so even though he wasn't consistently 93-97 as he was in college he could still get outs and set up his off-speed stuff.
He's ditched the below-average slider that screwed him up in his junior year at UConn and pitched most of the season with an above-average downer curveball that he could throw for strikes. His changeup gradually improved over the year as the Red Sox forced him to throw it a number of times each game, but even in Salem he was still getting hitters on both sides of the plate out with the fastball.
Barnes was a little experienced to spend the whole year in A-ball, so his stat line overstates how advanced he is, but he looks like a solid mid-rotation guy who'll be at least league-average, with a chance to profile better than that because of how well he locates the fastball.
80 Clayton Blackburn
Age: 20 (DOB: Jan. 6, 1993)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: San Francisco Giants
Top '12 Level: A (San Jose)
2012 ranking: Sleeper
2012 MINORS STATS
GM22
IP131.1
W8
L4
ERA2.54
SO143
BB18
H116
HR3
BAA.232
Blackburn doesn't have the upside of his Augusta teammate (and fellow top-100 prospect) Kyle Crick, but has better present command and feel, meaning he's more likely to reach the big leagues as a starter but might not be more than a league-average starter in the end.
His fastball sits at 89-93 mph with very good sink, generating a ground out/air out ratio over 2.3 in low Class A last year, and he commands the pitch to both sides of the plate. He's got very good feel for his changeup, an average pitch already that projects as plus, but needs more consistency finishing his curveball, with a tendency to cast it -- think fishing -- instead.
At 6-foot-3, 220 pounds, Blackburn is very well-built and generates velocity without much effort, but his delivery is so easy that it might explain the lack of finish to the breaking ball. He's got a very high floor thanks to his size and fastball command, with a ceiling of a good No. 3 starter if the curveball comes on or he adds some unexpected velocity.
81 Alex Colome
Age: 23 (DOB: Dec. 31, 1988)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Tampa Bay Rays
Top '12 Level: AAA (Durham)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM17
IP91.2
W8
L4
ERA3.44
SO90
BB43
H81
HR3
BAA.244
Colome has a huge arm, a big fastball with good life in the mid-90s, an upper 80s cutter that blows up bats, and a curveball around 80 mph with tight rotation, as well as a show-me changeup that is still on the come.
His delivery isn't ideal for a starter -- he's got a short stride and gets very low on his front side, which probably impacts his command and might be hard to repeat 100 times a game, 33 times a year. He also missed time twice during the year, early on with an oblique strain, later with a lat injury, neither of which is serious but doesn't help make the case that he'll be durable as a starter.
Given how electric the stuff is, however, I'd rather bet on the possibility he's a high-end starter, even if it's even money that he ends up in the 'pen, because this kind of repertoire in a guy who might be able to throw even 160 innings is so rare.
82 Jake Marisnick
Age: 21 (DOB: March 30, 1991)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: CF Organization: Miami Marlins
Top '12 Level: AA (New Hampshire)
2012 ranking: 47
2012 MINORS STATS
GM120
AB489
HR8
RBI50
SB24
SO100
BB37
AVG.249
OBP.321
SLG.399
Marisnick was one of the two significant prospects heading to Miami from Toronto in the Marlins' firesale deal in November, with Justin Nicolino (No. 62) the other one. Marisnick has a great set of tools, grading out as above-average in running, arm, power, and glove, but he's shown some holes at the plate that have reduced his probability of becoming an above-average regular.
His approach at the plate is not great, as he's beatable both on breaking stuff and on hard stuff up or in. He has virtually no load and doesn't get extended well enough before contact to let that raw power, visible in BP, play in games. Some of this is a matter of mechanical adjustments, but there will probably always be a lot of swing and miss to Marisnick's game, and he may ride to the majors on his defense and running speed more than on his bat.
83 Delino DeShields Jr.
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 16, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: 2B Organization: Houston Astros
Top '12 Level: A (Lancaster)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM135
AB537
HR12
RBI61
SB101
SO131
BB83
AVG.287
OBP.389
SLG.428
In any other year, DeShields' minor league stolen base total of 101 across two levels would have generated a lot of excitement -- but he wasn't within 50 of the minor league lead thanks to Billy Hamilton.
DeShields' 80-grade speed is exciting, but his evolution as a hitter and second baseman has returned him to prospect status after a year off the radar. DeShields repeated the Sally League and performed extremely well for Lexington, earning a late-season promotion to hitter-friendly Lancaster.
He has a short swing with good power for his size -- maybe 10-15 homers at his peak -- but is more geared toward contact, getting a nice boost to his OBP from the patience he showed this year. A center fielder and running back in high school, DeShields has worked to make himself playable at second base, a 45 at best right now but with a chance to be a solid average 50, showing great range but struggling a little with his hands and footwork around the bag.
He might not ever justify that No. 8 overall selection in the 2010 draft, but he's on track for a better career than lots of guys picked right behind him.
84 Luis Heredia
Age: 18 (DOB: Aug. 10, 1994)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Pittsburgh Pirates
Top '12 Level: A (Jamestown)
2012 ranking: Just missed
2012 MINORS STATS
GM14
IP66.1
W4
L2
ERA2.71
SO40
BB20
H53
HR2
BAA.224
Heredia signed out of Mexico in 2010 for a $2.6 million bonus, but his stuff and his body are very advanced for his age, and he should be ready for a tougher test in a full-season league this year.
He will pitch at 90-95 with an above-average changeup now, occasionally showing better velocity; his curveball is still below-average, although it's improving with reps. His fastball has some riding life up in the zone and he will throw it inside to left-handers. Heredia's got a slight hook in the back of his delivery but his arm is very quick, accelerating with minimal effort, and he gets on top of the ball really well; on the downside, his arm is pretty late relative to when his front leg lands and he doesn't finish well over his front side.
He's got a mature body so there's little velocity projection here; the hope is that the breaking ball comes with experience and that the Pirates can help him smooth out his delivery so he can throw more strikes. I don't see ace potential here, more like a No. 2 or No. 3 starter, someone who's above-average but not top 10 in the league, even if the curveball becomes an average pitch.
85 Trevor Story
Age: 20 (DOB: Nov. 15, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: SS Organization: Colorado Rockies
Top '12 Level: A (Asheville)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM122
AB477
HR18
RBI63
SB15
SO121
BB60
AVG.277
OBP.367
SLG.505
Story came out of high school as a defensive wizard at short with a plus arm but big questions about whether he'd hit. Even accounting for the hitter's paradise of Asheville, Story had a solid full-season debut and looks like he'll hit enough to be a solid everyday shortstop for someone in about three years -- maybe even the Rockies if Troy Tulowitzki's health woes continue.
His swing still gets long, as he loads his hands deep and somewhat low, but he has good wrist strength and can get the bat head through the zone in plenty of time to drive the ball out to the gaps. He's not a great runner but is an instinctive player who can steal a base and whose feet are agile enough for him to stay at shortstop long term, along with that aforementioned arm strength.
I would like to see him hit outside of Asheville -- he had a large home/road split (.961 OPS at home, .775 away), although that's hardly definitive -- before buying into the bat completely, but he's already come in well ahead of expectations and now projects as an average regular or better here.
86 Jarred Cosart
Age: 22 (DOB: May 25, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Houston Astros
Top '12 Level: AAA (Oklahoma City)
2012 ranking: 78
2012 MINORS STATS
GM21
IP114.2
W6
L7
ERA3.30
SO92
BB51
H109
HR3
BAA.250
Cosart had the best pure stuff of any pitcher in the Arizna Fall League this year, and more often than not he got his brains beat in by AFL hitters because he couldn't locate.
He comes slightly across his body with big-time stuff, 94-98 mph on his fastball, along with a hard downer breaking ball at 79-82 and a deceptive changeup at 80-82 that works well but that he doesn't use often. Between the cross-body arm action and the way he cuts himself off to the plate, however, it's hard for Cosart to throw quality strikes, especially to his glove side, so while he can hold his velocity and has the three pitches he'd need to start, he might never have the command to do so.
Houston's big league rotation is weak enough that it might make sense to give Cosart a year or even two to see if he can throw enough strikes to let his stuff play, but if that can't happen, he'd be one of the best closer prospects around.
87 Roberto Osuna
Age: 17 (DOB: Feb. 7, 1995)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '12 Level: A (Vancouver)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM12
IP43.2
W2
L0
ERA2.27
SO49
BB15
H31
HR1
BAA.201
Osuna is just 17 years old but entered Toronto's system with pro experience in the relatively high-level Mexican League, as well as good bloodlines from a father who pitched in that same league and an uncle, Antonio, who pitched in the majors, mostly for the Dodgers.
He gets high marks for how advanced he is on the mound, with good control and a strong feel for the art of setting hitters up, even though his stuff isn't quite up to the same level yet. He topped out at 97 mph last summer and will sit in the low 90s, with a plus changeup that has good action on it; he'll throw the change in any count to hitters on either side of the plate. The breaking ball is the question mark, as he throws a slider to spots right now rather than letting it go, putting more power into it almost like a cutter would have.
He can pitch with his fastball and has such feel for the changeup that, given his present control, he looks like at least a solid league-average starter, with substantial upside if that slider becomes a viable third weapon for him.
88 Joe Ross
Age: 19 (DOB: May 21, 1993)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '11 Level: A (Ft. Wayne)
2012 ranking: 49
2012 MINORS STATS
GM15
IP54.2
W0
L4
ERA4.28
SO56
BB22
H51
HR3
BAA.249
Ross generated a ton of buzz in spring training when he was hitting 97 mph with that same, easy delivery he showed the previous spring and fall in his draft year.
After a so-so April, shoulder tendinitis struck in early May and the Padres were very cautious with him, shutting him down for two months and bringing him back slowly -- probably a wise move, but leaving Ross with a lost year development-wise.
When he's healthy, he'll pitch at 90-95 mph, getting on top of the ball well from a three-quarters arm slot. His changeup is already an average pitch and projects as above-average to plus, while his hard slurve was making good progress and could have used the 200 or so reps he missed while injured. Ross is very athletic with a far, far cleaner delivery than his brother Tyson has, and I like him as a breakout candidate this year if he can get 120 or so innings in without further arm trouble.
Prior to that DL stint I had him as a future No. 2 starter, and that's still his upside if the shoulder doesn't bark a second time.
89 A.J. Cole
Age: 21 (DOB: Jan. 5, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Washington Nationals
Top '12 Level: A (Stockton)
2012 ranking: 33
2012 MINORS STATS
GM27
IP133.2
W6
L10
ERA3.70
SO133
BB29
H138
HR14
BAA.267
Cole was traded to Oakland before the 2012 season in the Gio Gonzalez deal, had a disastrous first half in high Class A, found himself demoted to low A where he threw as well as you'd expect, then was dealt back to Washington in this winter's three-team deal involving Michael Morse and John Jaso.
He seemed off when I saw him in March, missing a few miles per hour off his fastball and struggling to keep his arm slot up, but his issues in the Cal League went beyond that, with his stuff less crisp across the board and real trouble dealing with adversity on the mound. After his demotion, his stuff ticked back up into the mid-90s and he'd flash an above-average curve and changeup, throwing more strikes and pitching with confidence again. His arm can get deep on the back side while he gets too short out front, less than ideal for a 6-foot-4 pitcher who should be extending over his front side to release the ball closer to the plate.
His ceiling is still extremely high, but 2012 was a huge setback, and his probability of reaching the ceiling of a top 20 pitcher in the league, is a lot lower than it seemed to be last winter.
90 Cody Buckel
Age: 20 (DOB: June 18, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '12 Level: AA (Frisco)
2012 ranking: Sleeper
2012 MINORS STATS
GM26
IP144.2
W10
L8
ERA2.49
SO159
BB48
H105
HR9
BAA.206
Buckel's name might be most familiar to non-Ranger fans for his inclusion in pretty much every Rangers trade rumor this offseason, including all the ultimately meaningless offers to and from Arizona for Justin Upton.
He's a command right-hander with a solid four-pitch mix and a very athletic, easy delivery, but doesn't have huge upside because of a lack of physical projection. What you see with Buckel is what you'll get, but that looks like it'll be enough for a league-average starter, probably not too far off in the future.
He'll pitch with a solid-average fastball, and his curveball is his best pitch, an above-average offering with good two-plane break. Buckel might have another half-grade of fastball in there, but it's most likely that he'll pitch with what we see now, four average to slightly above-average pitches, and good command thanks to a repeatable delivery, making him a possible No. 3 starter in the majors.
91 Adam Eaton
Age: 24 (DOB: Dec. 6, 1988)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: CF Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: Majors (D-backs)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM130
AB528
HR7
RBI48
SB44
SO76
BB59
AVG.375
OBP.456
SLG.523
Eaton was a favorite of scouts in the 2011 Arizona Fall League as a pure hitter who played all-out but didn't look like he'd profile as an everyday guy -- he didn't have the power to play a corner, but didn't have the range to handle center. That assessment has changed after a stellar 2012 season.
He worked on his defense to the point where he should be a solid-average glove in center, his September struggles with the roof in Chase Field notwithstanding, which combined with his patience at the plate gives him a chance to be an above-average regular. Eaton's got a little loop and length in his swing, but his hand-eye is very good and he puts himself into a lot of hitters' counts, seeing a ton of pitches (3.96 per plate appearance in his brief major-league trial) and drawing enough walks to keep his OBP up.
He's an above-average runner who can cover the ground in center but needs to continue to improve his reads on balls off the bat, with a future average glove in center. He's likely a 10-12 homer guy in a neutral park but should have high-.300 OBPs to keep him in the lineup, even if he's just a fringy regular in a corner.
With Arizona dealing away two-thirds of its starting outfield this offseason, Eaton is the best in-house option to play center, and he's also the D-backs best leadoff candidate, which should give him 500 or more at-bats this year to show he can be at least a league-average regular in center.
92 Adam Morgan
Age: 22 (DOB: Dec. Feb. 27, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Philadelphia Phillies
Top '12 Level: AA (Reading)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM27
IP158.2
W8
L11
ERA3.35
SO169
BB39
H137
HR9
BAA.235
Morgan was a solid enough college lefty, pitching primarily off his secondary stuff while at Alabama because college hitters would chase it, but showing just an adequate fastball and nothing else to really distinguish him from the raft of back-end starter candidates coming out of the college ranks each year.
In his first full year in pro ball, however, Morgan starting pitching more off his fastball and everything he threw ticked upward, adding a grade of velocity while seeing both his curveball and the changeup become more effective. He's also shown he can win games with any of those three pitches as his go-to pitch in pitchers' counts, with impressive feel and command of all three offerings.
He'll pitch with a solid-average fastball now, flashing a little above that, with a little late life, and turns the changeup over well from his three-quarters arm slot. I'd like to see him extend a little further over his front side, which might help the fastball play up even more, but I see a solid No. 4 starter here very soon with the upside of a good No. 3.
93 Martin Perez
Age: 21 (DOB: Apr. 4, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '12 Level: Majors (Rangers)
2012 ranking: 20
2012 MINORS STATS
GM22
IP127
W7
L6
ERA4.25
SO69
BB56
H122
HR10
BAA.297
At some point, Perez is going to have to take that plus fastball-changeup combination and actually miss some bats, because it doesn't matter how good your stuff is if it doesn't produce results.
His arsenal is the same as it's been for the last few years he's been on this list -- fastball up to 97, sitting 92-95, with a great changeup at 82-85 that succeeds both because of Perez' arm speed and the pitch's hard, late fading action. His curveball is an average pitch, somewhat effective against left-handed hitters but so much slower than his other pitches that it's not useful against right-handers.
Perez's struggles are functions of inconsistency, poor command, and some immaturity on the mound, all of which are interconnected; he'll turn 22 in April, so he's young enough to improve, but it's a concern that he's shown little progress in the art of pitching over nearly 600 pro innings.
You can't give up on a lefty with this kind of pure stuff, but it's time for Perez to show he can convert it into zeros on the scoreboard.
94 J.R. Graham
Age: 23 (DOB: Jan. 14, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '12 Level: AA (Mississippi)
2012 ranking: Sleeper
2012 MINORS STATS
GM26
IP148
W12
L2
ERA2.80
SO110
BB17
H123
HR8
BAA.228
Graham threw up to 100 mph as a starter for Santa Clara and still works at 94-98 going every fifth day, getting good plane on the pitch despite his 6-foot frame so that he generates a ton of ground balls, with a ground out/air out ratio above 2.0 across at both levels where he pitched in 2012.
He pairs the fastball with an above-average-to-plus curveball that's ahead of his changeup, although he only showed modest platoon splits in the minors last year, with the change probably a solid-average third weapon for him in the end. Although he's on the short side for a starter, he's well-built for his height with plenty of core strength to let him hold his velocity and be able to handle 180-200 innings in a full season when he gets to the majors.
If he has to return to the pen, he'd probably pitch with an 80-grade fastball and a swing-and-miss curveball, but a starter who can get ground balls and throw strikes, a la Tim Hudson, is far more valuable.
95 Jesse Biddle
Age: 21 (DOB: Oct. 22, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Philadelphia Phillies
Top '12 Level: A (Clearwater)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM26
IP142.2
W10
L6
ERA3.22
SO151
BB54
H129
HR10
BAA.237
Biddle is the projection guy to complement fellow lefty Adam Morgan's higher probability in the Phillies' system, which has some depth but doesn't have a lot of guys close to the majors who will make an impact.
Biddle's stuff will be good enough that he should be a back-end starter even if his command never quite gets to average, but has the potential to be a No. 2 if it develops into a real strength. He takes a very long stride to the plate but still manages to finish well over his front side, so that solid-average velocity plays up because he's releasing the ball so much closer to the plate. His changeup has come a long way since his days at Philadelphia's Germantown Friends High School; it has good fade to his arm side and he's more confident in the pitch, doubling up on it to right-handers now that it's a weapon for him.
His delivery is good enough that refining his command is a matter of repetitions and of improving his mental approach to pitching as he matures, and, until that happens, he's got an adequate floor as a fourth or fifth starter candidate.
Age: 17 (DOB: Feb. 7, 1995)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Toronto Blue Jays
Top '12 Level: A (Vancouver)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM12
IP43.2
W2
L0
ERA2.27
SO49
BB15
H31
HR1
BAA.201
Osuna is just 17 years old but entered Toronto's system with pro experience in the relatively high-level Mexican League, as well as good bloodlines from a father who pitched in that same league and an uncle, Antonio, who pitched in the majors, mostly for the Dodgers.
He gets high marks for how advanced he is on the mound, with good control and a strong feel for the art of setting hitters up, even though his stuff isn't quite up to the same level yet. He topped out at 97 mph last summer and will sit in the low 90s, with a plus changeup that has good action on it; he'll throw the change in any count to hitters on either side of the plate. The breaking ball is the question mark, as he throws a slider to spots right now rather than letting it go, putting more power into it almost like a cutter would have.
He can pitch with his fastball and has such feel for the changeup that, given his present control, he looks like at least a solid league-average starter, with substantial upside if that slider becomes a viable third weapon for him.
88 Joe Ross
Age: 19 (DOB: May 21, 1993)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: San Diego Padres
Top '11 Level: A (Ft. Wayne)
2012 ranking: 49
2012 MINORS STATS
GM15
IP54.2
W0
L4
ERA4.28
SO56
BB22
H51
HR3
BAA.249
Ross generated a ton of buzz in spring training when he was hitting 97 mph with that same, easy delivery he showed the previous spring and fall in his draft year.
After a so-so April, shoulder tendinitis struck in early May and the Padres were very cautious with him, shutting him down for two months and bringing him back slowly -- probably a wise move, but leaving Ross with a lost year development-wise.
When he's healthy, he'll pitch at 90-95 mph, getting on top of the ball well from a three-quarters arm slot. His changeup is already an average pitch and projects as above-average to plus, while his hard slurve was making good progress and could have used the 200 or so reps he missed while injured. Ross is very athletic with a far, far cleaner delivery than his brother Tyson has, and I like him as a breakout candidate this year if he can get 120 or so innings in without further arm trouble.
Prior to that DL stint I had him as a future No. 2 starter, and that's still his upside if the shoulder doesn't bark a second time.
89 A.J. Cole
Age: 21 (DOB: Jan. 5, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Washington Nationals
Top '12 Level: A (Stockton)
2012 ranking: 33
2012 MINORS STATS
GM27
IP133.2
W6
L10
ERA3.70
SO133
BB29
H138
HR14
BAA.267
Cole was traded to Oakland before the 2012 season in the Gio Gonzalez deal, had a disastrous first half in high Class A, found himself demoted to low A where he threw as well as you'd expect, then was dealt back to Washington in this winter's three-team deal involving Michael Morse and John Jaso.
He seemed off when I saw him in March, missing a few miles per hour off his fastball and struggling to keep his arm slot up, but his issues in the Cal League went beyond that, with his stuff less crisp across the board and real trouble dealing with adversity on the mound. After his demotion, his stuff ticked back up into the mid-90s and he'd flash an above-average curve and changeup, throwing more strikes and pitching with confidence again. His arm can get deep on the back side while he gets too short out front, less than ideal for a 6-foot-4 pitcher who should be extending over his front side to release the ball closer to the plate.
His ceiling is still extremely high, but 2012 was a huge setback, and his probability of reaching the ceiling of a top 20 pitcher in the league, is a lot lower than it seemed to be last winter.
90 Cody Buckel
Age: 20 (DOB: June 18, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '12 Level: AA (Frisco)
2012 ranking: Sleeper
2012 MINORS STATS
GM26
IP144.2
W10
L8
ERA2.49
SO159
BB48
H105
HR9
BAA.206
Buckel's name might be most familiar to non-Ranger fans for his inclusion in pretty much every Rangers trade rumor this offseason, including all the ultimately meaningless offers to and from Arizona for Justin Upton.
He's a command right-hander with a solid four-pitch mix and a very athletic, easy delivery, but doesn't have huge upside because of a lack of physical projection. What you see with Buckel is what you'll get, but that looks like it'll be enough for a league-average starter, probably not too far off in the future.
He'll pitch with a solid-average fastball, and his curveball is his best pitch, an above-average offering with good two-plane break. Buckel might have another half-grade of fastball in there, but it's most likely that he'll pitch with what we see now, four average to slightly above-average pitches, and good command thanks to a repeatable delivery, making him a possible No. 3 starter in the majors.
91 Adam Eaton
Age: 24 (DOB: Dec. 6, 1988)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: CF Organization: Minnesota Twins
Top '12 Level: Majors (D-backs)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM130
AB528
HR7
RBI48
SB44
SO76
BB59
AVG.375
OBP.456
SLG.523
Eaton was a favorite of scouts in the 2011 Arizona Fall League as a pure hitter who played all-out but didn't look like he'd profile as an everyday guy -- he didn't have the power to play a corner, but didn't have the range to handle center. That assessment has changed after a stellar 2012 season.
He worked on his defense to the point where he should be a solid-average glove in center, his September struggles with the roof in Chase Field notwithstanding, which combined with his patience at the plate gives him a chance to be an above-average regular. Eaton's got a little loop and length in his swing, but his hand-eye is very good and he puts himself into a lot of hitters' counts, seeing a ton of pitches (3.96 per plate appearance in his brief major-league trial) and drawing enough walks to keep his OBP up.
He's an above-average runner who can cover the ground in center but needs to continue to improve his reads on balls off the bat, with a future average glove in center. He's likely a 10-12 homer guy in a neutral park but should have high-.300 OBPs to keep him in the lineup, even if he's just a fringy regular in a corner.
With Arizona dealing away two-thirds of its starting outfield this offseason, Eaton is the best in-house option to play center, and he's also the D-backs best leadoff candidate, which should give him 500 or more at-bats this year to show he can be at least a league-average regular in center.
92 Adam Morgan
Age: 22 (DOB: Dec. Feb. 27, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Philadelphia Phillies
Top '12 Level: AA (Reading)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM27
IP158.2
W8
L11
ERA3.35
SO169
BB39
H137
HR9
BAA.235
Morgan was a solid enough college lefty, pitching primarily off his secondary stuff while at Alabama because college hitters would chase it, but showing just an adequate fastball and nothing else to really distinguish him from the raft of back-end starter candidates coming out of the college ranks each year.
In his first full year in pro ball, however, Morgan starting pitching more off his fastball and everything he threw ticked upward, adding a grade of velocity while seeing both his curveball and the changeup become more effective. He's also shown he can win games with any of those three pitches as his go-to pitch in pitchers' counts, with impressive feel and command of all three offerings.
He'll pitch with a solid-average fastball now, flashing a little above that, with a little late life, and turns the changeup over well from his three-quarters arm slot. I'd like to see him extend a little further over his front side, which might help the fastball play up even more, but I see a solid No. 4 starter here very soon with the upside of a good No. 3.
93 Martin Perez
Age: 21 (DOB: Apr. 4, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Texas Rangers
Top '12 Level: Majors (Rangers)
2012 ranking: 20
2012 MINORS STATS
GM22
IP127
W7
L6
ERA4.25
SO69
BB56
H122
HR10
BAA.297
At some point, Perez is going to have to take that plus fastball-changeup combination and actually miss some bats, because it doesn't matter how good your stuff is if it doesn't produce results.
His arsenal is the same as it's been for the last few years he's been on this list -- fastball up to 97, sitting 92-95, with a great changeup at 82-85 that succeeds both because of Perez' arm speed and the pitch's hard, late fading action. His curveball is an average pitch, somewhat effective against left-handed hitters but so much slower than his other pitches that it's not useful against right-handers.
Perez's struggles are functions of inconsistency, poor command, and some immaturity on the mound, all of which are interconnected; he'll turn 22 in April, so he's young enough to improve, but it's a concern that he's shown little progress in the art of pitching over nearly 600 pro innings.
You can't give up on a lefty with this kind of pure stuff, but it's time for Perez to show he can convert it into zeros on the scoreboard.
94 J.R. Graham
Age: 23 (DOB: Jan. 14, 1990)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Atlanta Braves
Top '12 Level: AA (Mississippi)
2012 ranking: Sleeper
2012 MINORS STATS
GM26
IP148
W12
L2
ERA2.80
SO110
BB17
H123
HR8
BAA.228
Graham threw up to 100 mph as a starter for Santa Clara and still works at 94-98 going every fifth day, getting good plane on the pitch despite his 6-foot frame so that he generates a ton of ground balls, with a ground out/air out ratio above 2.0 across at both levels where he pitched in 2012.
He pairs the fastball with an above-average-to-plus curveball that's ahead of his changeup, although he only showed modest platoon splits in the minors last year, with the change probably a solid-average third weapon for him in the end. Although he's on the short side for a starter, he's well-built for his height with plenty of core strength to let him hold his velocity and be able to handle 180-200 innings in a full season when he gets to the majors.
If he has to return to the pen, he'd probably pitch with an 80-grade fastball and a swing-and-miss curveball, but a starter who can get ground balls and throw strikes, a la Tim Hudson, is far more valuable.
95 Jesse Biddle
Age: 21 (DOB: Oct. 22, 1991)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Philadelphia Phillies
Top '12 Level: A (Clearwater)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM26
IP142.2
W10
L6
ERA3.22
SO151
BB54
H129
HR10
BAA.237
Biddle is the projection guy to complement fellow lefty Adam Morgan's higher probability in the Phillies' system, which has some depth but doesn't have a lot of guys close to the majors who will make an impact.
Biddle's stuff will be good enough that he should be a back-end starter even if his command never quite gets to average, but has the potential to be a No. 2 if it develops into a real strength. He takes a very long stride to the plate but still manages to finish well over his front side, so that solid-average velocity plays up because he's releasing the ball so much closer to the plate. His changeup has come a long way since his days at Philadelphia's Germantown Friends High School; it has good fade to his arm side and he's more confident in the pitch, doubling up on it to right-handers now that it's a weapon for him.
His delivery is good enough that refining his command is a matter of repetitions and of improving his mental approach to pitching as he matures, and, until that happens, he's got an adequate floor as a fourth or fifth starter candidate.
96 Kolten Wong
Age: 22 (DOB: Oct. 10, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: 2B Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '12 Level: AA (Springfield)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM126
AB523
HR9
RBI52
SB21
SO74
BB44
AVG.287
OBP.348
SLG.405
A bet on Wong is a bet that he'll hit, something he's done fairly well so far in pro ball, spending his first full year in pro ball in Double-A and continuing to hit in the Arizona Fall League.
Wong had trouble finding a position in college but has settled into second base where, after about three years at the keystone, he's improved to the point where we can say he'll end up an average defender there but not likely better than that, as his footwork and 45-grade arm limit his defensive upside.
At the plate, Wong has a short swing with good bat speed and really tracks the ball well into the zone. There won't be power there but he should always be a high-contact hitter, and while he hasn't walked a ton so far in pro ball, it wouldn't surprise me if he added that to his game later given how well he seems to see the ball out of the pitcher's hand. He's a 50 to 55 runner who needs to work on his reads of pitchers to convert that into baserunning value.
Wong might be ready for an everyday job in the majors right now and certainly should be by the All-Star Break, giving the Cards a potentially average regular there for the minimum salary for the next three years.
97 Noah Syndergaard
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 29, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: New York Mets
Top '12 Level: A (Lansing)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM27
IP103.2
W8
L5
ERA2.60
SO122
BB31
H81
HR3
BAA.212
Syndergaard was part of the trio of starters for the Blue Jays' low Class A Lansing affiliate last year who all made this list, albeit now for three different organizations. (Syndegaard was traded to the Mets in the R.A. dikkey deal, while Justin Nicolino was dealt to the Marlins in the Jose Reyes-Josh Johnson blockbuster. Of the three, only Aaron Sanchez remains with Toronto.)
Syndergaard has a very clean, easy arm action with a fastball in the mid-90s, and an above-average changeup with pretty good arm speed, all with the size of a guy (6-foot-5, 200 pounds) who looks like a front-line starter. Finding a consistent, average breaking ball has been an issue for Syndergaard since he entered pro ball, with reports this year grading it as average at best, and often coming in below that or saying it came and went.
He'll pitch at 20 years old this season and has just 176 pro innings behind him, so there's time to find a consistent third pitch, but it's not a great sign that two-plus years in Toronto's system didn't produce it yet. At worst he should be a solid fourth starter, very durable with above-average control, and still has that No. 2 starter upside if the curveball comes along.
98 Tony Cingrani
Age: 23 (DOB: July 5, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '12 Level: Majors (Reds)
2012 ranking: Sleeper
2012 MINORS STATS
GM26
IP146
W10
L4
ERA1.80
SO172
BB52
H98
HR9
BAA.191
Cingrani's an unconventional starting pitching prospect, working almost entirely with an average fastball at 88-94 that hitters swing through like it's 98. The Reds have shortened Cingrani's arm action somewhat since his days at Rice, where the arm action was so long it was hard to envision him handling a starter's workload. They didn't reduce it so much that he lost the great deception it provides him, which let the fastball play up.
His changeup is average now and flashes better than that, working because hitters see the ball so late. The slider is still pretty fringy and may never be more than a third pitch for him. He throws a ton of strikes, and his command is good enough overall to work at least in a back-end starter role, although I tend to think high-deception guys can't rely on that trait to last forever in the majors and eventually will need to improve their location.
He might be a No. 3 starter given another half-season or so in the minors, and should at least get a couple of years in that role before the Reds revisit the bullpen option.
99 Nathan Karns
Age: 25 (DOB: Nov. 25, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Washington Nationals
Top '12 Level: A (Potomac)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM24
IP116
W11
L4
ERA2.17
SO148
BB47
H70
HR2
BAA.174
A 12th-round pick in 2009 out of Texas Tech, Karns threw just 55 minor-league innings before 2012 due to a major shoulder injury he suffered in 2010, but exploded this year in a rare fit of good health.
Karns was 93-97 as a starter with a yellow hammer of a curveball at 80-85 that he threw for more and more strikes as the season went on, meaning he could have two pitches that grade out at 70 on the 20-80 scale. He barely uses his changeup, but it's no worse than fringy and can play up because hitters are busy worrying about 96 going right by them.
There's some effort in his delivery, mostly as his arm lags slightly behind his front leg, yet he does have the size and lower-body strength to continue to generate that velocity in a starter's role. If his shoulder holds up -- a big if -- he's got front-line starter potential.
100 Eduardo Rodriguez
Age: 19 (DOB: April 7, 1993)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '12 Level: A (Delmarva)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM22
IP107
W5
L7
ERA3.70
SO73
BB30
H103
HR4
BAA.251
What you think of Rodriguez depends largely on when in the year you saw him. Early in the year he was working with a fringe-average-to-average fastball and solid-average secondary stuff, maybe a little better on the slider. By midyear he was sitting in the low 90s with a little more life, and by August and in instructs he was hitting 93-94 and both the slider and changeup were flashing plus.
His arm works well, but he lacked experience and repetitions coming into 2012, with just 48 innings in short-season ball in 2011, his first year in the U.S.
The Orioles have a lot of power arms in their lower levels, led by Kevin Gausman, with Rodriguez second on that list as a potential No. 3 starter who might slide up into No. 2 territory if those late-season velocity gains hold into 2013.
Age: 22 (DOB: Oct. 10, 1990)
Bats: Left Throws: Right
Position: 2B Organization: St. Louis Cardinals
Top '12 Level: AA (Springfield)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM126
AB523
HR9
RBI52
SB21
SO74
BB44
AVG.287
OBP.348
SLG.405
A bet on Wong is a bet that he'll hit, something he's done fairly well so far in pro ball, spending his first full year in pro ball in Double-A and continuing to hit in the Arizona Fall League.
Wong had trouble finding a position in college but has settled into second base where, after about three years at the keystone, he's improved to the point where we can say he'll end up an average defender there but not likely better than that, as his footwork and 45-grade arm limit his defensive upside.
At the plate, Wong has a short swing with good bat speed and really tracks the ball well into the zone. There won't be power there but he should always be a high-contact hitter, and while he hasn't walked a ton so far in pro ball, it wouldn't surprise me if he added that to his game later given how well he seems to see the ball out of the pitcher's hand. He's a 50 to 55 runner who needs to work on his reads of pitchers to convert that into baserunning value.
Wong might be ready for an everyday job in the majors right now and certainly should be by the All-Star Break, giving the Cards a potentially average regular there for the minimum salary for the next three years.
97 Noah Syndergaard
Age: 20 (DOB: Aug. 29, 1992)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: New York Mets
Top '12 Level: A (Lansing)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM27
IP103.2
W8
L5
ERA2.60
SO122
BB31
H81
HR3
BAA.212
Syndergaard was part of the trio of starters for the Blue Jays' low Class A Lansing affiliate last year who all made this list, albeit now for three different organizations. (Syndegaard was traded to the Mets in the R.A. dikkey deal, while Justin Nicolino was dealt to the Marlins in the Jose Reyes-Josh Johnson blockbuster. Of the three, only Aaron Sanchez remains with Toronto.)
Syndergaard has a very clean, easy arm action with a fastball in the mid-90s, and an above-average changeup with pretty good arm speed, all with the size of a guy (6-foot-5, 200 pounds) who looks like a front-line starter. Finding a consistent, average breaking ball has been an issue for Syndergaard since he entered pro ball, with reports this year grading it as average at best, and often coming in below that or saying it came and went.
He'll pitch at 20 years old this season and has just 176 pro innings behind him, so there's time to find a consistent third pitch, but it's not a great sign that two-plus years in Toronto's system didn't produce it yet. At worst he should be a solid fourth starter, very durable with above-average control, and still has that No. 2 starter upside if the curveball comes along.
98 Tony Cingrani
Age: 23 (DOB: July 5, 1989)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Cincinnati Reds
Top '12 Level: Majors (Reds)
2012 ranking: Sleeper
2012 MINORS STATS
GM26
IP146
W10
L4
ERA1.80
SO172
BB52
H98
HR9
BAA.191
Cingrani's an unconventional starting pitching prospect, working almost entirely with an average fastball at 88-94 that hitters swing through like it's 98. The Reds have shortened Cingrani's arm action somewhat since his days at Rice, where the arm action was so long it was hard to envision him handling a starter's workload. They didn't reduce it so much that he lost the great deception it provides him, which let the fastball play up.
His changeup is average now and flashes better than that, working because hitters see the ball so late. The slider is still pretty fringy and may never be more than a third pitch for him. He throws a ton of strikes, and his command is good enough overall to work at least in a back-end starter role, although I tend to think high-deception guys can't rely on that trait to last forever in the majors and eventually will need to improve their location.
He might be a No. 3 starter given another half-season or so in the minors, and should at least get a couple of years in that role before the Reds revisit the bullpen option.
99 Nathan Karns
Age: 25 (DOB: Nov. 25, 1987)
Bats: Right Throws: Right
Position: RHP Organization: Washington Nationals
Top '12 Level: A (Potomac)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM24
IP116
W11
L4
ERA2.17
SO148
BB47
H70
HR2
BAA.174
A 12th-round pick in 2009 out of Texas Tech, Karns threw just 55 minor-league innings before 2012 due to a major shoulder injury he suffered in 2010, but exploded this year in a rare fit of good health.
Karns was 93-97 as a starter with a yellow hammer of a curveball at 80-85 that he threw for more and more strikes as the season went on, meaning he could have two pitches that grade out at 70 on the 20-80 scale. He barely uses his changeup, but it's no worse than fringy and can play up because hitters are busy worrying about 96 going right by them.
There's some effort in his delivery, mostly as his arm lags slightly behind his front leg, yet he does have the size and lower-body strength to continue to generate that velocity in a starter's role. If his shoulder holds up -- a big if -- he's got front-line starter potential.
100 Eduardo Rodriguez
Age: 19 (DOB: April 7, 1993)
Bats: Left Throws: Left
Position: LHP Organization: Baltimore Orioles
Top '12 Level: A (Delmarva)
2012 ranking: UR
2012 MINORS STATS
GM22
IP107
W5
L7
ERA3.70
SO73
BB30
H103
HR4
BAA.251
What you think of Rodriguez depends largely on when in the year you saw him. Early in the year he was working with a fringe-average-to-average fastball and solid-average secondary stuff, maybe a little better on the slider. By midyear he was sitting in the low 90s with a little more life, and by August and in instructs he was hitting 93-94 and both the slider and changeup were flashing plus.
His arm works well, but he lacked experience and repetitions coming into 2012, with just 48 innings in short-season ball in 2011, his first year in the U.S.
The Orioles have a lot of power arms in their lower levels, led by Kevin Gausman, with Rodriguez second on that list as a potential No. 3 starter who might slide up into No. 2 territory if those late-season velocity gains hold into 2013.
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FreedS[ohh]lave;3247674 said:
Top 25 overall prospects
With the release of our updated basketball recruiting rankings, we've rated the top 100 seniors, top 60 juniors and top 25 sophomores in the nation to provide context on how the players in each class rank against one another.
But we've taken it one step further here, ranking the top 25 overall high school basketball prospects in the country regardless of class.
Ultimately, the strength of the senior class won out, with the top five players and 12 of the 25 hailing from the Class of 2013. But there's plenty of talent on the horizon, with eight juniors, four sophomores and even a freshman making the overall top 25.
Dave Telep, Paul Biancardi, Reggie Rankin, Adam Finkelstein and Joel Francisco contributed to these rankings.
1. 2013 SF Andrew Wiggins
Thornhill, Ontario/Huntington Prep
College: Undecided
No. 1 in the ESPN 100
2. 2013 SF Jabari Parker
Chicago/Simeon
College: Duke
No. 2 in the ESPN 100
3. 2013 PF Julius Randle
Dallas/Prestonwood Christian
College: Undecided
No. 3 in the ESPN 100
4. 2013 PF Aaron Gordon
San Jose, Calif./Archbishop Mitty
College: Undecided
No. 4 in the ESPN 100
5. 2013 PG Andrew Harrison
Richmond, Texas/Travis
College: Kentucky
No. 5 in the ESPN 100
6. 2014 C Jahlil Okafor
Chicago/Whitney Young
College: Undecided
No. 1 in the ESPN 60
7. 2013 SG James Young
Rochester, Mich./Rochester
College: Kentucky
No. 6 in the ESPN 100
8. 2014 PG Tyus Jones
Apple Valley, Minn./Apple Valley
College: Undecided
No. 2 in the ESPN 60
9. 2013 SG Aaron Harrison
Richmond, Texas/Travis
College: Kentucky
No. 7 in the ESPN 100
10. 2014 PG Emmanuel Mudiay
Arlington, Texas/Prime Prep
College: Undecided
No. 3 in the ESPN 60
11. 2013 PF Noah Vonleh
Haverhill, Mass./New Hampton School
College: Indiana
No. 8 in the ESPN 100
12. 2015 PF Ivan Rabb
Oakland, Calif./Bishop O'Dowd
College: Undecided
No. 1 in the ESPN 25
13. 2014 PF Trey Lyles
Indianapolis/Arsenal Tech
College: Undecided
No. 4 in the ESPN 60
14. 2015 C Diamond Stone
Milwaukee/Dominican
College: Undecided
No. 2 in the ESPN 25
15. 2014 C Karl Towns Jr.
Metuchen, N.J./St. Joseph
College: Kentucky
No. 5 in the ESPN 60
16. 2013 PG Kasey Hill
Eustis, Fla./Montverde Academy
College: Florida
No. 9 in the ESPN 100
17. 2014 PF Chris McCullough
Bronx, N.Y./Brewster Academy
College: Syracuse
No. 6 in the ESPN 60
18. 2014 PF Kevon Looney
Milwaukee/Hamilton
College: Undecided
No. 7 in the ESPN 60
19. 2014 C Cliff Alexander
Chicago/Curie
College: Undecided
No. 8 in the ESPN 60
20. 2016 PF Harry Giles
Winston-Salem, N.C./Wesleyan Christian
College: Undecided
ESPN Watch List
21. 2013 PF Jarrell Martin
Baton Rouge, La./Madison Prep
College: LSU
No. 10 in the ESPN 100
22. 2013 C Dakari Johnson
Brooklyn, N.Y./Montverde Academy
College: Kentucky
No. 11 in the ESPN 100
23. 2015 PF Thomas Bryant
Rochester, N.Y./Bishop Kearney
College: Undecided
No. 3 in the ESPN 25
24. 2015 SG Malik Newman
Jackson, Miss./Callaway
College: Undecided
No. 4 in the ESPN 25
25. 2013 SF Wayne Selden
Boston/Tilton School
College: Kansas
No. 12 in the ESPN 100
Others receiving votes (listed in alphabetical order): Lonzo Ball, Deandre Burnett, Amir Coffey, De'Ron Davis, Eron Gordon, Isaiah Hicks, Zak Irvin, Josh Jackson, Justin Jackson, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Mickey Mitchell, Theo Pinson, Bobby Portis, Terry Rozier, Elijah Thomas, Rashad Vaughn, Justise Winslow, Stephen Zimmerman
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I don't even know anymore...
This one too homie. Is Milwaukee a good fit for Eric Gordon? - NBA Rumors Blog - ESPN