Bengals-Texans: Both defenses can swing momentum
QB RB WR OL LB = Texans
DL DB ST Coach = Bengals
Can the Bengals' D-line control the trenches? This is a deep unit with an outstanding set of pass-rushers and run-blockers. The Bengals are not going to blitz a lot if they can get pressure by the guys up front. Individually, all four starters are almost impossible to block one on one, so who do you double team? Houston has had a solid offensive line in pass protection for most of this season, but in the past couple of weeks, QB Matt Schaub has gotten hit more than usual, and the Bengals' D-line could really give him problems. This defensive front must also show gap discipline versus the zone-blocking Texans run game, which features a lot of cutback runs.
Can the Texans' defensive front control the trenches? The Texans have a very active 3-4 defensive line. It has the strength to stack/penetrate versus the run, but it can also rush the QB. The outside linebackers are excellent edge rushers, and the Texans love to bring them with a variety of blitzes. Their edge pass rush has not been dynamic in the past couple of weeks; if that pressure doesn't get there, it has a negative effect on this entire defense. The wild cards for the Texans are DEs J.J. Watt and Antonio Smith, who are excellent inside penetrators. This is not an elite pass-blocking offensive line for Cincinnati, and QB Andy Dalton is not a guy who is a huge threat to scramble, so there are plays to be made by this Houston pass rush.
Which secondary takes control? The Texans are really struggling on the back end, partially as a result of a sputtering pass rush. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips loves to bring creative blitzes, but if the pressure doesn't get to the QB, Houston's secondary has shown it can be exposed in man coverage. Cincinnati is in better shape thanks to its terrific front four pass rush, and that allows the Bengals to play more coverage schemes with limited blitzes, which should serve them well versus a talented Texans offense. This is not a secondary with explosive skills, but it has a lot of experience and doesn't make a lot of critical mistakes -- advantage here to Bengals.
Home QB: Schaub's skill set is excellent, and he can do everything you can ask of a QB, but he just doesn't seem to come up big in games that really count. Versus the Colts in Week 17, his accuracy and decision-making were off, and he is just not carrying this team on his back like an elite QB should. He has a solid run game that leads to his excellent play-action/bootleg package and solid weapons in the passing game, including a revitalized Andre Johnson at receiver, so there are no excuses for a guy with this much experience. That said, his pass protection in recent weeks has not been consistent, and this week he faces one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. If Schaub can get outside the pocket and make throws on the move, he has a chance to thrive, but if he is forced into bad decisions because of pressure, it could be a long day.
Away QB: Dalton is usually efficient and has a good, but not great, skill set. For all of his success, he tends to make key mistakes at inopportune times, and that is not a recipe for success versus a Houston defense that is one of the best in the NFL at creating takeaways. Dalton has had four interceptions returned for touchdowns in 2012, and he has turned the ball over too often. He is a good play-action passer, but he needs a healthy run game with BenJarvus Green-Ellis to make it effective. He needs to play a clean game at Houston and excel on third down to give the Bengals a real chance to win.
Key positional battle -- Texans' offensive line versus Bengals WLB Vontaze Burfict: This may not look like a flashy matchup, but it could be a big part of this game. Burfict, a candidate for defensive rookie of the year, has been a tackling machine for the Bengals after going undrafted. He still talks a lot of trash to opponents, but he has cleaned up his act, and his weekly consistency is really impressive. The Texans' O-line has innovative blocking schemes with a nice trap package and zone block looks. Burfict must show good gap control and not overpursue. He must almost play a little slower and not get too deep in the hole.
Featured player: It seems like a broken record, but Watt amazes every time you watch him on film. He can line up at DE in the Texans' base 3-4 scheme, can play inside at DT when they go to a four-man front and impresses as a run defender as well as a pass-rusher. Versus the run he has amazing first-step quickness, especially into the gaps, and he is terrific at beating double teams and locating the ball while on the move. He simply can't be blocked one on one. As a pass-rusher, he has a variety of moves, and his closing quickness gets him to a lot of plays. The Texans may move him around the formation versus the Bengals to give him his best one-on-one matchup. Dalton must locate Watt before every play.
Film room nuggets: Most of Bengals WR A.J. Green's plays are on the edge. Green is the most-targeted WR in the NFL outside the hashes. ... When you watch the Texans on film, it looks like they give away a lot of defensive information before the snap in terms of alignment, blitzes, coverage, etc., and smart veteran QBs will exploit that knowledge. ... The Bengals' run game has improved in 2012 with Green-Ellis, and some of the credit should go to the team's WRs and TEs, who block well in space and on the second level.
Prediction
Houston 21
Cincinnati 17
It should be close, but home cooking and a clock-eating, Arian Foster-led run game give Houston the edge.
Vikings-Packers: Vikings will need more than just Peterson to win in Green Bay
QB WR DB Coach = Packers
RB OL DL LB ST = Vikings
Feed Peterson, All Day: Adrian Peterson's amazing game in Week 17 against Green Bay propelled the Vikings into the postseason and left him nine yards short of Eric dikkerson's single-season rushing record. Peterson rushed for 199 yards last week and 210 in the Packers' Week 13 win. Including receptions, Peterson has averaged 7.4 yards per touch against the Packers this season. He runs smarter than ever with a great ability to set up defenders. He has rare abilities after first contact and has gotten more potent as an outside runner than he was early in the year. Not only is Peterson amazing, but his blockers have been superb, including fullbacks, tight ends and even wide receivers. The Vikings are one of the few teams that feature a blocking fullback. B.J. Raji has been playing extremely well of late and showed up huge last week for Green Bay. Getting Raji blocked will be of paramount importance.
Someone other than Peterson must step up: The Vikings are very light on weapons beyond Peterson. To keep up with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, someone other than Peterson will have to come through. Jerome Simpson showed flashes last week, but he might not be 100 percent for this contest. Kyle Rudolph is Christian Ponder's favorite target, especially in the red zone, but he isn't a big-play tight end. The Packers feature an excellent young secondary that has been very stingy against wide receivers and tight ends, and veteran DB Charles Woodson is scheduled to return this week. Still, the Packers did allow 444 yards of total offense to the Vikings last week.
Keep up with Rodgers' weapons: As evidenced by his 120 yards receiving in Week 17, Greg Jennings is healthy and extremely effective. Jordy Nelson is nursing a hamstring injury but can still exploit single coverage. James Jones has been a touchdown machine and filled in for Jennings very well. Green Bay could get jack-of-all trades Randall Cobb back for this game as well, giving the Packers a plethora of receiving weapons. The Vikings' best cover man, Antoine Winfield, left last week's game and didn't return, and Harrison Smith injured his shoulder late in the game. It wasn't a coincidence that Green Bay's passing attack picked up dramatically when Winfield went out. We might see even more three- and four-wide receiver sets this week, which could really tax the Vikings' battered secondary. Also, tight end Jermichael Finley has been giving Green Bay consistent weekly production after a slow start.
Home QB: Rodgers is the one player in this game who can match Peterson's star power. There might not be a quarterback in the league who has played as well as Rodgers in the second half of the season. He threw for 365 yards last week and makes remarkable throws that most quarterbacks wouldn't even attempt. Rodgers extends the play as well as anyone and is a timely and effective runner. Rodgers also is accomplished at handling rough weather.
Away QB: After going through an extremely rough stretch, Ponder has played very efficiently over the past two games. Play-action and designed quarterback movement are staples of the Vikings' passing game, but Ponder was much better with his deep ball last week than he has been for the majority of the season. Green Bay has sacked Ponder just once in their two meetings this season. The Packers' pass rush is much better with Clay Matthews, but Minnesota's protection is quite good and Ponder moves very well. Outside of Matthews, Green Bay lacks quality pass-rushers.
Key positional battle -- Packers' RBs versus Vikings' LBs: Green Bay's running backs have been an area of weakness this season, but the Packers may have found something with DuJuan Harris. He replaced Ryan Grant last week and averaged five yards per carry. The Vikings' front seven is strong vs. the run, but the defense has to key on Rodgers' passing threat, so Harris should see some favorable situations.
Featured players: Jared Allen remains a great pass-rusher, and the Vikings are one of the best defenses in the league at getting after the quarterback. That is one of the Vikings' few distinct advantages this week. If Rodgers has a discernible weakness as a quarterback, it's that he can hold the football too long. Plus, his offensive line is banged up and will probably need help against Minnesota's defensive ends. Rodgers was sacked five times last week, three by Everson Griffen. Griffen is an elite athlete for a defensive end and has come on huge the past few weeks. Helping versus both Allen and Griffen could prove very challenging for the Packers.
Film room nuggets: Few linebackers have played as well as Minnesota's Chad Greenway this year. He covers a ton of ground and is always around the football, whether it is crashing in against the inside run, getting to the edge or in coverage, where he can play zone or man quite well. ... The addition of Matt Kalil has gone a very long way to stabilizing the Vikings' offensive line. A true pass-blocking left tackle, Kalil has secured Ponder's blind side from the start. But unlike Kalil, the rest of the Vikings' underrated line, led by John Sullivan in the middle, is rugged and best suited to fire off the ball in the run game.
Prediction
Green Bay 27
Minnesota 17
Minnesota won the Week 17 matchup at home but has only three road wins this season. Green Bay is a brutal place to play this time of year. The Packers are 9-2 over their past 11 and will continue that hot streak, with Rodgers lighting up the Vikings.
QB RB WR OL LB = Texans
DL DB ST Coach = Bengals
Can the Bengals' D-line control the trenches? This is a deep unit with an outstanding set of pass-rushers and run-blockers. The Bengals are not going to blitz a lot if they can get pressure by the guys up front. Individually, all four starters are almost impossible to block one on one, so who do you double team? Houston has had a solid offensive line in pass protection for most of this season, but in the past couple of weeks, QB Matt Schaub has gotten hit more than usual, and the Bengals' D-line could really give him problems. This defensive front must also show gap discipline versus the zone-blocking Texans run game, which features a lot of cutback runs.
Can the Texans' defensive front control the trenches? The Texans have a very active 3-4 defensive line. It has the strength to stack/penetrate versus the run, but it can also rush the QB. The outside linebackers are excellent edge rushers, and the Texans love to bring them with a variety of blitzes. Their edge pass rush has not been dynamic in the past couple of weeks; if that pressure doesn't get there, it has a negative effect on this entire defense. The wild cards for the Texans are DEs J.J. Watt and Antonio Smith, who are excellent inside penetrators. This is not an elite pass-blocking offensive line for Cincinnati, and QB Andy Dalton is not a guy who is a huge threat to scramble, so there are plays to be made by this Houston pass rush.
Which secondary takes control? The Texans are really struggling on the back end, partially as a result of a sputtering pass rush. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips loves to bring creative blitzes, but if the pressure doesn't get to the QB, Houston's secondary has shown it can be exposed in man coverage. Cincinnati is in better shape thanks to its terrific front four pass rush, and that allows the Bengals to play more coverage schemes with limited blitzes, which should serve them well versus a talented Texans offense. This is not a secondary with explosive skills, but it has a lot of experience and doesn't make a lot of critical mistakes -- advantage here to Bengals.
Home QB: Schaub's skill set is excellent, and he can do everything you can ask of a QB, but he just doesn't seem to come up big in games that really count. Versus the Colts in Week 17, his accuracy and decision-making were off, and he is just not carrying this team on his back like an elite QB should. He has a solid run game that leads to his excellent play-action/bootleg package and solid weapons in the passing game, including a revitalized Andre Johnson at receiver, so there are no excuses for a guy with this much experience. That said, his pass protection in recent weeks has not been consistent, and this week he faces one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. If Schaub can get outside the pocket and make throws on the move, he has a chance to thrive, but if he is forced into bad decisions because of pressure, it could be a long day.
Away QB: Dalton is usually efficient and has a good, but not great, skill set. For all of his success, he tends to make key mistakes at inopportune times, and that is not a recipe for success versus a Houston defense that is one of the best in the NFL at creating takeaways. Dalton has had four interceptions returned for touchdowns in 2012, and he has turned the ball over too often. He is a good play-action passer, but he needs a healthy run game with BenJarvus Green-Ellis to make it effective. He needs to play a clean game at Houston and excel on third down to give the Bengals a real chance to win.
Key positional battle -- Texans' offensive line versus Bengals WLB Vontaze Burfict: This may not look like a flashy matchup, but it could be a big part of this game. Burfict, a candidate for defensive rookie of the year, has been a tackling machine for the Bengals after going undrafted. He still talks a lot of trash to opponents, but he has cleaned up his act, and his weekly consistency is really impressive. The Texans' O-line has innovative blocking schemes with a nice trap package and zone block looks. Burfict must show good gap control and not overpursue. He must almost play a little slower and not get too deep in the hole.
Featured player: It seems like a broken record, but Watt amazes every time you watch him on film. He can line up at DE in the Texans' base 3-4 scheme, can play inside at DT when they go to a four-man front and impresses as a run defender as well as a pass-rusher. Versus the run he has amazing first-step quickness, especially into the gaps, and he is terrific at beating double teams and locating the ball while on the move. He simply can't be blocked one on one. As a pass-rusher, he has a variety of moves, and his closing quickness gets him to a lot of plays. The Texans may move him around the formation versus the Bengals to give him his best one-on-one matchup. Dalton must locate Watt before every play.
Film room nuggets: Most of Bengals WR A.J. Green's plays are on the edge. Green is the most-targeted WR in the NFL outside the hashes. ... When you watch the Texans on film, it looks like they give away a lot of defensive information before the snap in terms of alignment, blitzes, coverage, etc., and smart veteran QBs will exploit that knowledge. ... The Bengals' run game has improved in 2012 with Green-Ellis, and some of the credit should go to the team's WRs and TEs, who block well in space and on the second level.
Prediction
Houston 21
Cincinnati 17
It should be close, but home cooking and a clock-eating, Arian Foster-led run game give Houston the edge.
Vikings-Packers: Vikings will need more than just Peterson to win in Green Bay
QB WR DB Coach = Packers
RB OL DL LB ST = Vikings
Feed Peterson, All Day: Adrian Peterson's amazing game in Week 17 against Green Bay propelled the Vikings into the postseason and left him nine yards short of Eric dikkerson's single-season rushing record. Peterson rushed for 199 yards last week and 210 in the Packers' Week 13 win. Including receptions, Peterson has averaged 7.4 yards per touch against the Packers this season. He runs smarter than ever with a great ability to set up defenders. He has rare abilities after first contact and has gotten more potent as an outside runner than he was early in the year. Not only is Peterson amazing, but his blockers have been superb, including fullbacks, tight ends and even wide receivers. The Vikings are one of the few teams that feature a blocking fullback. B.J. Raji has been playing extremely well of late and showed up huge last week for Green Bay. Getting Raji blocked will be of paramount importance.
Someone other than Peterson must step up: The Vikings are very light on weapons beyond Peterson. To keep up with Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, someone other than Peterson will have to come through. Jerome Simpson showed flashes last week, but he might not be 100 percent for this contest. Kyle Rudolph is Christian Ponder's favorite target, especially in the red zone, but he isn't a big-play tight end. The Packers feature an excellent young secondary that has been very stingy against wide receivers and tight ends, and veteran DB Charles Woodson is scheduled to return this week. Still, the Packers did allow 444 yards of total offense to the Vikings last week.
Keep up with Rodgers' weapons: As evidenced by his 120 yards receiving in Week 17, Greg Jennings is healthy and extremely effective. Jordy Nelson is nursing a hamstring injury but can still exploit single coverage. James Jones has been a touchdown machine and filled in for Jennings very well. Green Bay could get jack-of-all trades Randall Cobb back for this game as well, giving the Packers a plethora of receiving weapons. The Vikings' best cover man, Antoine Winfield, left last week's game and didn't return, and Harrison Smith injured his shoulder late in the game. It wasn't a coincidence that Green Bay's passing attack picked up dramatically when Winfield went out. We might see even more three- and four-wide receiver sets this week, which could really tax the Vikings' battered secondary. Also, tight end Jermichael Finley has been giving Green Bay consistent weekly production after a slow start.
Home QB: Rodgers is the one player in this game who can match Peterson's star power. There might not be a quarterback in the league who has played as well as Rodgers in the second half of the season. He threw for 365 yards last week and makes remarkable throws that most quarterbacks wouldn't even attempt. Rodgers extends the play as well as anyone and is a timely and effective runner. Rodgers also is accomplished at handling rough weather.
Away QB: After going through an extremely rough stretch, Ponder has played very efficiently over the past two games. Play-action and designed quarterback movement are staples of the Vikings' passing game, but Ponder was much better with his deep ball last week than he has been for the majority of the season. Green Bay has sacked Ponder just once in their two meetings this season. The Packers' pass rush is much better with Clay Matthews, but Minnesota's protection is quite good and Ponder moves very well. Outside of Matthews, Green Bay lacks quality pass-rushers.
Key positional battle -- Packers' RBs versus Vikings' LBs: Green Bay's running backs have been an area of weakness this season, but the Packers may have found something with DuJuan Harris. He replaced Ryan Grant last week and averaged five yards per carry. The Vikings' front seven is strong vs. the run, but the defense has to key on Rodgers' passing threat, so Harris should see some favorable situations.
Featured players: Jared Allen remains a great pass-rusher, and the Vikings are one of the best defenses in the league at getting after the quarterback. That is one of the Vikings' few distinct advantages this week. If Rodgers has a discernible weakness as a quarterback, it's that he can hold the football too long. Plus, his offensive line is banged up and will probably need help against Minnesota's defensive ends. Rodgers was sacked five times last week, three by Everson Griffen. Griffen is an elite athlete for a defensive end and has come on huge the past few weeks. Helping versus both Allen and Griffen could prove very challenging for the Packers.
Film room nuggets: Few linebackers have played as well as Minnesota's Chad Greenway this year. He covers a ton of ground and is always around the football, whether it is crashing in against the inside run, getting to the edge or in coverage, where he can play zone or man quite well. ... The addition of Matt Kalil has gone a very long way to stabilizing the Vikings' offensive line. A true pass-blocking left tackle, Kalil has secured Ponder's blind side from the start. But unlike Kalil, the rest of the Vikings' underrated line, led by John Sullivan in the middle, is rugged and best suited to fire off the ball in the run game.
Prediction
Green Bay 27
Minnesota 17
Minnesota won the Week 17 matchup at home but has only three road wins this season. Green Bay is a brutal place to play this time of year. The Packers are 9-2 over their past 11 and will continue that hot streak, with Rodgers lighting up the Vikings.