Best available NFL free agents
With the 2012 season officially in the books, attention now turns to team plans for 2013. For NFL front offices, however, that process started long ago.
I'm certain that between now and then you'll see multiple lists ranking this year's free-agent class from No. 1 right on down the line. While I understand why those lists exist, it is not how a real NFL GM approaches free agency. There are several elements that make a comprehensive ranking moot. For starters, players have different values in different systems. A team that plays a lot of Cover 2 might not emphasize a cornerback the same as a blitz-heavy team such as the New York Jets. Dwight Freeney might be a great pickup for a team utilizing a Wide-9 scheme, although he makes less sense as an outside linebacker in a 3-4 set. And while Andy Levitre is a great player, how much does a team want to pay a guard? With all these variables unique to each team, there's no universal value for a player.
As a GM, when I approached free agency, I utilized a tier system based on how I valued players. It involved three classes, which you'll see below:
Free-agency tiers
A Players: Worth paying big, starter-caliber money.
B Players: Guys I would sign but only if the value made sense.
C Players: Guys I'd sign for low-salary, short-term (one or two years) value, with low bonuses.
Within each of those groups, there are further considerations, particularly injuries, age and character. The concern with injury is obvious, as that player might never recapture his previous level of performance or even see the field. Age is a concern for anyone older than 26 because a five-year contract would take the player past age 30, a precipice after which players usually decline rapidly. This is a concern for some positions more than others, however, and must account for how much a player has been used to that point. An every-down running back at age 26 might have less tread on his tires than a 28-year-old who has seen limited carries to this point.
Based on the information we have as of Feb. 4 and using my tier system, what follows is a 35,000-foot view of the free-agent landscape based on player performance, positional scarcity and the overall market for certain players. In short, these names are my best available free agents for 2013.
As teams make additional cuts, there likely will be new names added to the mix before March 12. For now, we're working with the players normally scheduled to reach unrestricted free agency. Where applicable, I've indicated any concerns I have due to age, injury or character. They are grouped first by tier, then by position. Appearing higher within a certain tier does not mean a player is more valuable than those below him.
Statistics are inclusive of postseason where applicable.
Tier A: Offense
Joe Flacco
DOB: 1/16/85HT: 6-6WT: 245POS: QB2012 TEAM: Baltimore
Att 657Comp 390Yds 4,957TD 33INT 10QBR 55.3Player Analysis
I would assume he will be franchised or reach a long-term agreement with the Ravens. He definitely deserves top-tier money, however; he has proved that much. Flacco is streaky, but when he's on, he can win for you. This past postseason has shown exactly that.
Steven Jackson
DOB: 7/22/83HT: 6-2WT: 240POS: RB2012 TEAM: St. Louis
Att 257Yds 1,042Avg 4.1Long 22Fum 0TD 4Player Analysis
For running backs, seven seasons is about the time when tread runs out on their tires. Jackson has been in the league for nine, but I think he's the best back no one really celebrates. His age and service time are a concern but he's a warrior and a guy you want on your team. If the price is right, a contender could get him for two to three years and feel pretty good about it. I think he could be a Corey Dillon-like find but without the baggage. He's a true blue guy.
Wes Welker
DOB: 5/1/81HT: 5-9WT: 185POS: WR2012 TEAM: New England
Rec 134Yds 1,602Avg 11.5Long 59TD 6Player Analysis
He will be 32 at the start of the 2013 season and is a big age concern. How much money do you want invested in a player who is small, is not very fast and excels in New England's offense but doesn't have a lot of years in front of him? That's the question teams face with Welker. The Patriots didn't sign him long term, which should be an indicator of his value. Will they franchise him at $12 million? I don't know. Will he command more on the open market? I don't know. You can't deny he's a good player. It's his value that remains a question.
Mike Wallace
DOB: 8/1/86HT: 6-0WT: 199POS: WR2012 TEAM: Pittsburgh
Rec 64Yds 836Avg 13.1Long 82TD 8Player Analysis
Wallace is a good route runner, has good instincts and typically has good hands, but he's small and you worry about injury. Inconsistency in the past also is a concern. Pittsburgh didn't reach a deal with him, which will make some teams wary, but this league is always looking for WRs with speed who can take the top off a defense -- and he can do that.
Martellus Bennett
DOB: 1/10/87HT: 6-6WT: 265POS: TE2012 TEAM: NY Giants
Rec 55Yds 626Avg 11.4Long 33TD 5Player Analysis
Bennett is young, but to date he has never really lived up to his potential. He has great speed, above average hands and good size to be a good blocker, but he doesn't play consistently. He's one of those free-agent gambles who might or might not pay off.
Jared Cook
DOB: 4/7/87HT: 6-5WT: 248POS: TE2012 TEAM: Tennessee
Rec 44Yds 523Avg 11.9Long 61TD 4Player Analysis
I think there's a lot of upside for Cook, but he has not played to the level of an A player just yet. Still, I think he'll command some money based on his potential. He is more consistent than Bennett and had a better year in 2013, but I'm always a little skeptical of players who come on in a contract year. There's a chance he could be franchised.
Greg Jones
DOB: 5/9/81HT: 6-1WT: 265POS: FB2012 TEAM: Jacksonville
Att 5Yds 8Avg 1.6Long 4Fum 0TD 0Player Analysis
Even at age 31, Jones is a good player and adds value because of his toughness and work ethic. If he's affordable, he's a guy I want on my football team. Of course the questions are: Can he pass a physical? And is he affordable? He is one of the few FBs who can carry the ball and do it well.
Andy Levitre
DOB: 5/15/86HT: 6-2WT: 305POS: G2012 TEAM: Buffalo
GP 16GS 16Player Analysis
Levitre is a very solid, professional, strong, offensive guard. While he has the talent, his position might limit the money he'll see.
Ryan Clady
DOB: 9/6/86HT: 6-6WT: 315POS: T2012 TEAM: Denver
GP 16GS 16Player Analysis
His shoulder injury might be a concern, but he has been solid for the Broncos since he was a rookie. Tackles such as Clady command big money, and he will, too
assuming his shoulder is OK.
Sebastian Vollmer
DOB: 7/10/84HT: 6-8WT: 320POS: T2012 TEAM: New England
GP 15GS 15Player Analysis
Pass protection is his strong suit. He has pretty good feet and long arms, and moves well. He has had some injury concerns, but he came to football late in life (relatively speaking), so there might be some latent upside. It would be worth sinking some money into him, assuming he's got a clean bill of health.
Jermon Bushrod
DOB: 8/19/84HT: 6-5WT: 315POS: T2012 TEAM: New Orleans
GP 16GS 16Player Analysis
He's big and powerful, but Bushrod is not a great pass protector and his feet are a concern. His size and length help him some, though. As an all-around guy, he's a fit. A long-term deal should still provide decent value for a team.
Gosder Cherilus
DOB: 6/28/84HT: 6-7WT: 325POS: T2012 TEAM: Detroit
GP 16GS 15Player Analysis
Solid, but nothing spectacular, Cherilus has no glaring deficiencies. Solid tackles are hard to come by, but with lots of linemen in the draft, it might drive down the money for linemen in this free-agent class. GMs know that, and it will be reflected in their offers. I put him with the A's because he's been a reasonably good starter for a time.
Jake Long
DOB: 5/9/85HT: 6-7WT: 319POS: T2012 TEAM: Miami
GP 12GS 12Player Analysis
His reputation will make him an A player, but he is an injury and age concern to me. He is turning only 28 to start next season, but he already has played 74 games, making a long-term deal a risk. He's missed time the past two seasons as well. Someone will pay him, though.
Branden Albert
DOB: 11/4/84HT: 6-5WT: 316POS: T2012 TEAM: Kansas City
GP 16GS 16Player Analysis
He's a high draft choice who has disappointed at tackle for Kansas City. There has been some talk about him moving to guard, which is where I see him fitting best and which will affect the offers he receives. I tend to slot him more as a B player, but certain teams get enamored by size and he's certainly got that (6-foot-5, 316 pounds), so there probably will be a market for him.
Tier A: Defense
Henry Melton
DOB: 10/11/86HT: 6-3WT: 295POS: DT2012 TEAM: Chicago
Tkl 43Solo 31Sack 6.0FF 2Player Analysis
Melton is a converted college FB who became a great 3-technique player in a Dungy Tampa 2 defense. The trouble is, he fits only that defense and that seriously limits his market. That said, if you're going to play that scheme, this position is of critical importance.
Randy Starks
DOB: 12/14/83HT: 6-3WT: 305POS: DT2012 TEAM: Miami
Tkl 27Solo 18Sack 4.5FF 0Player Analysis
He's older, but he could be effective as an inside, space-eating 3-4 or power 4-3 kind of tackle. He had a very good year with Miami. This type of player is hard to find, so I imagine he'll have a market.
Anthony Spencer
DOB: 1/23/84HT: 6-3WT: 250POS: DE2012 TEAM: Dallas
Tkl 95Solo 55Sack 11.0FF 2Player Analysis
He played OLB in Dallas' 3-4 scheme, but I think he's more of a 4-3 end. He is an outstanding pass-rusher. As I mentioned earlier, I'm normally wary of players having good seasons in contract years, but putting him at OLB doesn't allow him to do what he does best, which is rush upfield. And I see upside for him in a 4-3 scheme.
Cliff Avril
DOB: 4/8/86HT: 6-3WT: 260POS: DE2012 TEAM: Detroit
Tkl 35Solo 28Sack 9.5FF 2Player Analysis
Avril is an outside rusher who is not particualrly stout against the run, but pass-rushers are always in demand. I see low-A money in his future, but not right on the mark. He's a talented player and young (27 in 2013 season).
Dwight Freeney
DOB: 2/19/80HT: 6-1WT: 268POS: DE2012 TEAM: Indianapolis
Tkl 12Solo 10Sack 5.0FF 1Player Analysis
As you'd imagine I'm rather familiar with him. I see Freeney as a fit in a Wide-9 scheme or as a 4-3 DE. I believe he still has a lot of talent, but age is definitely a concern.
Michael Johnson
DOB: 2/7/87HT: 6-7WT: 270POS: DE2012 TEAM: Cincinnati
Tkl 54Solo 36Sack 11.5FF 0Player Analysis
Great size and production (11.5 sacks) make him an ideal target for teams in the market for a pass-rusher.
Paul Kruger
DOB: 2/15/86HT: 6-4WT: 270POS: LB2012 TEAM: Baltimore
Tkl 56Solo 39Sack 13.5FF 2Player Analysis
An outside pass-rusher, Kruger can play OLB or DE. He is coming off his rookie contract and really came into his own this season. He's become a very efficient pass-rusher, and there is a market for a player like that.
Rey Maualuga
DOB: 1/20/87HT: 6-1WT: 268POS: LB2012 TEAM: Cincinnati
Tkl 122Solo 62Sack 1.0FF 0Player Analysis
He's had off-field issues, although none recently. I think free agency will really benefit him because he's more of a B player, but he is a starter in Cincy and could be a solid starter elsewhere. There aren't a lot of interior LBs on the market, so I think he'll command A money.
Brent Grimes
DOB: 7/19/83HT: 5-10WT: 183POS: CB2012 TEAM: Atlanta
Tkl 6Solo 6Sack 0FF 0INT 0Player Analysis
Solid young player, but injury concern (Achilles) might reduce his value. He's a starting-caliber corner if he answers his health question.
Cary Williams
DOB: 12/23/84HT: 6-1WT: 190POS: CB2012 TEAM: Baltimore
Tkl 102Solo 88Sack 1.0FF 0INT 6Player Analysis
Williams is a very good man-to-man corner who stepped in for Lardarius Webb and outpaced expectations with the Ravens. He's probably low A, but because of his good year, I think he'll be able to cash in and get A-level money.
William Moore
DOB: 5/18/85HT: 6-0WT: 221POS: S2012 TEAM: Atlanta
Tkl 86Solo 63Sack 1.0FF 2INT 4Player Analysis
Moore is not a spectacular player, but he could start for most teams in the league. He's a good all-around type, solid in all phases of the game.
Jairus Byrd
DOB: 10/7/86HT: 5-10WT: 203POS: S2012 TEAM: Buffalo
Tkl 76Solo 53Sack 0FF 4INT 5Player Analysis
Timed speed is a question mark, but instincts, toughness and production are not.
Louis Delmas
DOB: 4/12/87HT: 5-11WT: 202POS: S2012
TEAM: Detroit
Tkl 38Solo 28Sack 0FF 0INT 1Player Analysis
Delmas has good range and good instincts, and is very tough. He battled a knee injury all season, but I see him as a very interesting safety. His position might not command a big-money deal, however.
Ed Reed
DOB: 9/11/78HT: 5-11WT: 205POS: S2012 TEAM: Baltimore
Tkl 73Solo 53Sack 0FF 0INT 5Player Analysis
For years, Reed has been the best safety in the NFL, unconventional as he might be. His instincts are unparalleled, but age is a concern at this stage of the game, and I'm not sure whether there's a long-term deal out there for him. He probably will go back to Baltimore, but I've seen some rumors mention New England. That's a possibility. He is on the down side of his career but still is a great player and a Hall of Famer. Could he have value as a tutor for younger players? Sure, but no one plays the position like Reed does. He's one of the smartest and most unconventional safeties I've seen, and I don't think anyone could emulate him.
LaRon Landry
DOB: 10/14/84HT: 6-0WT: 220POS: S2012 TEAM: NY Jets
Tkl 99Solo 75Sack 0FF 4INT 2Player Analysis
Landry had a good year for a bad team. He's a striker, a big hitter. While he is a little older, he's still a pretty serviceable player. We're closer to B territory now, but for a team looking for a safety, he could do a good job.
Glover Quin
DOB: 1/15/86HT: 6-0WT: 207POS: S2012 TEAM: Houston
Tkl 84Solo 64Sack 1.0FF 2INT 2Player Analysis
Just an athletic, tough safety. If you want a safety to play man, cover ground, and go up and play in the nickel on the line of scrimmage, this is a guy who does all of that well. I think he has more value to Houston than to another team, so I think the Texans will do what they can to sign him. Within the role he plays, he's very good.