Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

[Skooby]

Cowboys-Redskins: Romo, RG III in spotlight in this NFC East championship game


QB WR LB DB ST = Cowboys
RB OL DL Coach = Redskins

• Deal with Dallas' OLBs DeMarcus Ware remains a player who must be game-planned around, but it was Anthony Spencer with two sacks when these teams met earlier this season. Under the radar, Spencer has been terrific versus the run and pass. Not only are the Cowboys' 3-4 outside linebackers' roles as pass-rushers crucial, but so is their ability to contain the outside run, especially considering how dangerous Robert Griffin III is as a ball carrier off tackle. The Cowboys did not record a sack in their Week 16 overtime loss to the Saints and were very conservative with their pass rush tactics. That conservatism did not pay off.

• Slow down Alf: In Dallas in Week 12, Alfred Morris rushed for 113 yards. Morris fits Mike Shanahan's system extremely well because he is patient for the blocks to develop but also decisive and aggressive when he decides to get downhill. And he is a load with the ball in his hands and capable of a large workload. Even after 15 games in his rookie season, there have been no signs of Morris slowing down. With Griffin still on the mend, Morris' role this week is as crucial as ever.

• Don't bite on play-action: No one in the league runs play-action as often or as well as Washington. Off a zone running game, play-action is a staple of this offense and suits Griffin's maturation very well, as he often dumps the ball over the heads of linebackers who fall for the run fake in the middle of the field. This is an especially big problem for Dallas this week, as the weakness of its pass defense is at inside linebacker and safety. Griffin also is very adept at going deep off play-action.

• Home QB: Griffin only carried the ball twice last week as his leg injury continues to heal. While he can be dangerous outside the pocket, he does his best work as a passer within the confines of the pocket and is a superb deep passer. He threw for more than 300 yards in Dallas in Week 12, and Drew Brees threw for 446 yards last week against the Cowboys. Opposing wideouts have been lighting up the Cowboys' defense of late -- and Washington's offense is clearly much more potent with Pierre Garcon in the lineup -- but much of what the Redskins do in the passing game is in the middle of the field. Washington is 8-1 with Garcon in the lineup in 2012.

• Away QB: Over his past eight games, Tony Romo has thrown 17 touchdown passes with three interceptions. He has been simply terrific of late and is the main reason Dallas remains in the playoff hunt. Romo excels at extending the play and making big plays once the original call breaks down, but he can get a little impatient at times inside the pocket. Romo also is a good play-action passer and has done great work distributing the ball outside the numbers. Romo threw for 441 yards when these teams met last on a whopping 62 attempts. While opposing quarterbacks were torturing the Redskins early in the season, Washington's pass defense has improved noticeably. Romo threw for 416 yards last week and was spectacular when going deep downfield, while the Redskins let Nick Foles throw for 345 yards. Washington sacked Foles five times, though.

• Key positional battle -- Cowboys' run game versus Redskins' front seven: The Cowboys' offense is far more potent and difficult to play against when it has DeMarco Murray rolling. Murray was out when these teams last met, and Dallas could rush for only 35 yards. With Murray against the Saints last week, the Cowboys managed just 40 rushing yards. Dallas' offensive line certainly isn't great, but it has played better of late. Still, it is quite weak at right tackle and Washington's defensive front is better equipped to stop the run than rush the passer.

• Featured player: Dez Bryant racked up 145 yards against the Redskins earlier this season and put up a whopping 224 receiving yards last week in truly dominating fashion. There are maybe only two or three wide receivers playing better than Bryant right now. He commands the double-team, which opens up more space for Miles Austin and Jason Witten, who is still Romo's clear No.1 target and remains as reliable as ever. Dallas features some of the worst pass blocking in the NFL, and Washington can be very aggressive with its blitz schemes. While the Redskins' defense has improved, the secondary can be exposed, especially with the talent its will face against Dallas.

• Film room nuggets: The Cowboys have three high-end receiving options to lead their passing game, but there is a noticeable drop-off after Bryant, Austin and Witten. Dallas has incorporated tight end James Hanna more into the equation. He's not much of an inline player, but Hanna runs well and can align all over the formation or in motion. Also stepping up have been Cole Beasley and Dwayne Harris -- Beasley as a typical slot-type receiver, and Harris has become very valuable with his excellent after-the-catch skills.

Prediction
Washington 21
Dallas 20

The winner is the NFC East champion. Washington beat Dallas in Week 12 and is coming off a convincing win, while the Cowboys lost to New Orleans in overtime. This has all the makings of a fantastic game, but expect the home team to narrowly prevail.

 

[CoCKy GeNiuS]

throw a insider sticky up for the young chief skooby....

 

[YaThreadFloppedB!]

Yes. One of the original Hamster Gawds Young Skooby is here in our midst. We're honored.

 

[Joe Sixpack]

Skooby can I get that NFL insider today on the top RB/WR by Football Outsiders?

Also the Matt Williamson breakdown of the Vikings/Packers game on Sat.

 

[Skooby]

Skooby can I get that NFL insider today on the top RB/WR by Football Outsiders?

Also the Matt Williamson breakdown of the Vikings/Packers game on Sat.

Can Vikes repeat in Green Bay?

After their 37-34 win at home against rival Green Bay, the Vikings are officially red hot. Remember, they dismantled the Texans in Houston in Week 16 and have now won four games in a row, none of them cupcakes, after beating the Rams and Bears in previous weeks. This has been a very successful season for Minnesota when you consider where this team was one year ago, but after this win, improvement won't feel like enough if they can't win a playoff game. After all, next week they face a rematch with the team they beat on Sunday. The Vikings will travel to Green Bay for their third meeting of the season next week.

Can Minnesota keep its momentum going?

I won't bury the conclusion and just say I'm picking the Packers to win next week, but I also think Minnesota can win the game. I'm expecting another very competitive and entertaining contest in Green Bay. For Minnesota, it starts with my choice for NFL MVP. It is almost hard to believe I could write about the Vikings and it would take me this long to type the name Adrian Peterson. AP was simply remarkable yet again this week -- amazingly, he's rushed for 409 yards in the first two meetings between the Packers and Vikings. 409. In just two games.

He has some help. Peterson's run blocking has been spectacular all year, which includes more than just Minnesota's excellent offensive line, but Peterson also gets yards that go beyond what the blocks should allow. He is an all time great running back who will be compared against legends like Walter Payton and Emmitt Smith when he eventually hangs up his cleats. Now, is he capable of going off yet again next week? It would be easy to dismiss the idea of a 200-yard game (his current standard against Green Bay) given the attention the Packers have to maintain towards him, but I'm not going to. Not one bit. Peterson is an unstoppable force and when playing at such a ridiculous level, simply stacking the box often isn't enough. His current form allows the Vikings to be in every game they play.

That is the good news, well, great news, for the Vikings. Other good news for this team is that they now believe they can compete with any team in the league since Christian Ponder has played far better the past two weeks. Earlier this season, the Vikings had a brutal stretch of games over which it seemed clear they had to compensate for terrible quarterback play to stay competitive. The Vikings offense obviously goes through Peterson, and they have lacked top-notch receiving options, but lately Ponder has been very efficient with his ball placement, distribution and, most importantly, his decision making. This is a play-action-based passing game that incorporates a lot of designed quarterback movement, two skills that Ponder executes quite well. We saw one great play-action sequence late in the game Sunday, when a fake to Peterson allowed rookie Jarius Wright to take the top off the defense on a long passing play down the seam.

More good news for the Vikings is their pass rush. Led always by Jared Allen, but complemented extremely well by the ultra-athletic Everson Griffen, Minnesota's defensive ends are simply superior to Green Bay's offensive tackles (a real problem area for the Packers). Griffen sacked Rodgers, who is known to hold the ball too long at times, three times on Sunday and Minnesota got to Rodgers five times in Week 17. However, Rodgers was lethal against the Vikings' pass rush when they rushed just four players or less. Therein lies the rub. While getting to Rodgers is fantastic, he isn't the type of quarterback you can easily rattle. And the Vikings could have big problems competing on the back end, especially if they are bringing extra pressure. You have to create enough pressure, but also cover. The Vikings secondary has improved by leaps and bounds from last season, but Antoine Winfield and Harrison Smith were injured last week. Winfield is clearly Minnesota's best defensive back and had a fantastic 2012 season overall, while Smith has really helped firm up the safety position, which was a nightmare in 2011.

Compounding matters, Green Bay has Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Jermichael Finley and Randall Cobb to throw to. Jennings finally is healthy this season, and Finley is finally producing on a consistent basis overall. While DuJuan Harris played well as an upgrade to Ryan Grant at running back last week, Green Bay very well could put Rodgers in the shotgun and feature just those five aforementioned skill players in empty sets for Rodgers to pick and choose where to go with the ball; he can often make those decisions pre-snap. Cobb's health -- plus his ability to move to the backfield and act as a runner -- is obviously very important in such a game plan, but either way, expect the Packers to live in sets featuring at least three wide receivers to really test Winfield, Smith and especially the Vikings' secondary depth.

There is a reason that Green Bay has won nine of their last 11 games, not the least of which is Rodgers, who has been outstanding of late and just routinely makes plays that most NFL starting quarterbacks would not even attempt. So that is really the bad news for Minnesota, as are the Vikings' matchups of their receivers against Green Bay's excellent young secondary. Tramon Williams will often follow the opponent's top wideout, but in this case, there isn't a clear-cut Viking that fits such a description. Casey Hayward is making a strong push for Defensive Rookie of the Year, while Sam Shields, Jerron McMillian, M.D. Jennings and Morgan Burnett round out a very fine group overall that shouldn't be overly challenged by the Vikings' receivers, including Kyle Rudolph.

At least they shouldn't be, which is why once again it ultimately comes back to Peterson. Can he put the Vikings on his powerful shoulders yet another time, doing his own damage while also opening up the passing game? Can it lead to another victory? I certainly wouldn't doubt him, which is why you can't doubt Minnesota. It also must be noted that if Peterson and company can keep it close, they have an advantage at the kicker spot, where rookie phenom Blair Walsh has been far steadier than the struggling Mason Crosby has for Green Bay.

There's no way around the fact that the Packers do have the advantage for the third and final meeting of the season, but Minnesota will come in confident and with the knowledge that Green Bay hasn't come close to stopping their star.

 

[Skooby]

Year's best, worst RBs, receivers

The 2012 season in a nutshell: Calvin Johnson broke Jerry Rice's record. Adrian Peterson threatened Eric dikkerson's. The league was overtaken by a rookie class the likes of which we may never see again. And the best four quarterbacks in football are now the same guys who have been the best four quarterbacks over the last half-decade or so, especially when viewed through Football Outsiders' exclusive statistical lens.

Using our core advanced metrics -- DYAR and DVOA (explained in depth, here) -- we've gone through the full-season totals at each position and identified the best and worst quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends from this season. The result is a two-day look at the studs and duds of the 2012 season. We started with the quarterbacks on Monday, and today we bring you the RBs, WRs and TEs. The examination also includes which players have had their performance differ most drastically from their conventional statistics, as well as those players who have had the biggest improvement or decline in their performance from a year ago.

Our annual disclaimer: Numbers are never perfect. We certainly believe that our metrics do a better job of analyzing a player's performance than anything else you'll see, but statistics can't account for some things. We'll point out where the data need some additional context as warranted. Also, remember that DYAR is a cumulative stat, so players who miss time (like Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, who each played very well for San Francisco) will find it harder to make it onto these leaderboards.

Top 5 Running Backs

1) Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: 454 DYAR (459 rushing DYAR, -5 receiving)
2) Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks: 410 DYAR (361 rushing DYAR, 48 receiving)
3) C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills: 392 DYAR (301 rushing DYAR, 92 receiving)
4) Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers: 317 DYAR (268 rushing DYAR, 49 receiving)
5) Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants: 265 DYAR (230 rushing DYAR, 35 receiving)

Analysis: Not many surprises here. Although Peterson's season wasn't quite as impressive as his yardage numbers would indicate (as discussed last week, he is stuffed for a loss far more often than most elite backs), he still had enough rushing value to top the list of all players at his position despite finishing below replacement level as a receiver.

Lynch set career highs with 1,590 yards rushing and 5.0 yards per carry. Spiller averaged 6.0 yards on 207 carries. He and Peterson (6.0 yard average on 348 carries) are the fifth and sixth players in NFL history to top 6.0 yards per rush on at least 200 carries, joining Jim Brown, O.J. Simpson, Barry Sanders and Jamaal Charles.

Bradshaw is an odd case. He had only six rushing touchdowns on the season, but he led the league in red zone rushing value, constantly putting his teammates in position to score while rarely crossing the goal-line himself.

Two names who just missed the list also warrant mention: Joique Bell of the Detroit Lions finished a few decimal points behind Bradshaw. With 52 catches for 485 yards, he has become one of the league's premier receivers at his position. In seventh place was Washington's rookie sensation Alfred Morris. He finished fifth in rushing value alone, but was below replacement level as a receiver, and he failed to make the top 10 rookie seasons since 1991.

Bottom 5 Running Backs

1) Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders: -234 DYAR (-155 rushing DYAR, -79 receiving)
2) Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons: -112 DYAR (-78 rushing DYAR, -34 receiving)
3) Rashad Jennings, Jacksonville Jaguars: -108 DYAR (-97 rushing DYAR, -11 receiving)
4) LaRod Stephens-Howling, Arizona Cardinals: -103 DYAR (-63 rushing DYAR, -40 receiving)
5) Ryan Williams, Arizona Cardinals: -85 DYAR (-85 rushing DYAR, 0 receiving)

Analysis: Honestly, it's hard to tell which of these backs was the worst. Jennings and Williams averaged 2.8 yards per carry. Stephens-Howling didn't run very often, but he was so unhelpful as a receiver (57 percent catch rate, next to last among backs with at least 25 targets) that he still makes this list. And when he did run, Stephens-Howling was stuffed on more than one-third of his attempts. McFadden's Success Rate was only 36 percent. Honestly, Turner was probably the best of the bunch, but because he was still below replacement level and ran 222 times, he nearly made it to the very bottom.

Better than his standard statistics made him look: Danny Woodhead, New England Patriots
Woodhead made the top 10 among running backs in total DYAR, despite ranking 33rd at his position in yards from scrimmage. His 4.0-yard average is nothing to write home about, but he was the model of consistency. His Success Rate (55 percent) and Stuff Rate (13 percent) were both much better than league averages (47 percent and 20 percent, respectively).

Worse than his standard statistics made him look: McFadden
The Raiders runner gained nearly 1,000 yards from scrimmage, but it took him so many bad plays to get there that it was hardly worth it. He was stuffed 22 percent of the time and averaged only 3.3 yards per carry. And he gained 259 yards receiving, but only 4.0 yards per target. The average for running backs was 5.8.

Most improved: Gore
One year ago, Gore failed to make the top 40 in DYAR, DVOA or Success Rate. This year, he was top five in DYAR, top 10 in DVOA and top 20 in Success Rate.

Biggest decline: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles: McCoy was a top-five running back in total DYAR last year, but he had only 87 total DYAR in 2012. That's partly because he missed four games, but he also had four fumbles and was stuffed 28 percent of the time.

Top 5 Wide Receivers

1) Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions: 470 DYAR
2) Andre Johnson, Houston Texans: 413 DYAR
3) Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers: 393 DYAR (295 receiving DYAR, 98 rushing)
4) Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos: 393 DYAR
5) Eric Decker, Denver Broncos: 389 DYAR

Analysis: Calvin Johnson leads the league in this category for the second year in a row. Although he broke Jerry Rice's record for receiving yards in a season, his DYAR actually plunged sharply because of a decline in yards per catch and touchdowns. Andre Johnson makes the top 10 for the fourth time in six seasons. Cobb sort of took over Jordy Nelson's role of "Green Bay wideout who excels as the fourth option on most plays" this season. We'll have more to say about Thomas and Decker under "most improved."

Bottom 5 Wide Receivers

1) Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals: -129 DYAR
2) Louis Murphy, Carolina Panthers: -118 DYAR
3) Mike Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars: -97 DYAR (-135 receiving DYAR, 38 rushing)
4) Early Doucet, Arizona Cardinals: -95 DYAR (-96 receiving DYAR, 1 rushing)
5) Kevin Elliott, Jacksonville Jaguars: -94 DYAR

Analysis: Dear Larry Fitzgerald: It's not your fault. We know it. Everyone knows it. Individual receiving numbers often tell us as much about quarterbacks as they do about receivers. Really, it's probably not Mike Thomas' or Early Doucet's fault either. Kevin Elliott? Yeah, it's probably his fault. He had only 10 receptions (plus a couple of DPIs) in 33 targets before being waived in December. And Louis Murphy had only 25 receptions and one touchdown in 62 targets while playing with Cam Newton.

Better than his standard statistics made him look: Danario Alexander, San Diego Chargers
Alexander was 73rd among wideouts with 38 catches, but 16th in DYAR. He averaged 17.8 yards per catch with seven touchdowns, and he caught 60 percent of the passes thrown his way, slightly above average for wide receivers.

Worse than his standard statistics made him look: Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts
Wayne was fifth at his position with 111 catches, but 42nd in DYAR. He had a 55 percent catch rate and led the league with 92 incomplete targets.

Most improved: Thomas and Decker
Thomas ranked 37th among wide receivers in DYAR in 2011. Decker was 71st (not a typo). My goodness, what on earth could have happened in Denver that might have boosted both men into the top five? What personnel move could possibly explain the additional catches, the yards, the touchdowns? Perhaps Broncos wide receivers coach Tyke Tolbert is a literal miracle worker who can make blind men see and uncoordinated men catch. Yes. That's the only rational explanation.

Biggest decline: Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers
Since entering the league in 2009, Wallace has ranked 16th, first and fifth in DYAR. This year, he was 80th. He averaged 13.1 yards per catch, 3 yards fewer than his previous career low; he also had a career-worst 54 percent catch rate. Wallace began the year by holding out of training camp in hopes of getting a new contract. The Steelers refused to make an offer, a decision that looks brilliant with the benefit of hindsight. Wallace ended the season on IR with a hip injury and will be a free agent after the season unless the Steelers slap him with the franchise tag. Don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen.

Top 5 Tight Ends

1) Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots: 268 DYAR
2) Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons: 235 DYAR
3) Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers: 193 DYAR
4) Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys: 183 DYAR
5) Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers: 136 DYAR

Analysis: What we have here is the best tight end in the game today; the best tight end of all time; a record setter; and two solid veterans who had unusually productive years. Gronkowski leads all tight ends in DYAR despite missing five games. He was second in his rookie season in 2010, and his 2011 season was the best of any tight end in our database. For Gonzalez, it's his 12th season in the top five and his ninth at either No. 1 or 2. All Witten did this year was set a tight end record with 110 catches (albeit with a career-worst 9.4 yards per reception). In his eighth season, Miller had career highs in yardage (816) and touchdowns (eight) and was voted team MVP. Olsen also set career highs with 69 catches and 843 yards.

Bottom 5 Tight Ends

1) Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions: -128 DYAR
2) Alex Smith, Cleveland Browns: -80 DYAR
3) Clay Harbor, Philadelphia Eagles: -78 DYAR
4) Kellen Davis, Chicago Bears: -53 DYAR
5) Evan Moore, Seahawks/Eagles: -53 DYAR

Analysis: Pettigrew had 59 catches for 567 yards, but a catch rate of just 58 percent (average for tight ends was 64 percent) and he fumbled four times. No other tight end fumbled more than twice. Smith's catch rate was an impressive 72 percent, but only two of his catches gained first downs; his other 11 catches totaled -- totaled -- 20 yards.

Harbor averaged 7.4 yards per catch, worst of any tight end with at least 25 receptions. He went on injured reserve in December and his replacement was much, much worse. Davis' catch rate was only 43 percent.

And finally there's Moore. The Seahawks threw him seven passes. He produced one completion, one DPI, five incompletes and 6 total yards. He was waived in December, and Philadelphia signed him to replace Harbor, which sounds like some kind of sick prank on, well, everyone. They threw him two passes; both were incomplete.

Better than his standard statistics made him look: Gronkowski
No one else comes close. There were 49 tight ends this year with at least 25 targets. Among that group, Gronk ranked 13th in catches, but seventh in yards, fourth in first downs, third in yards per catch and yards per target, and first in touchdowns. Meanwhile, he was 25th in incomplete targets.

Worse than his standard statistics made him look: Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints
Pettigrew and Witten would also be solid choices here, but since we already discussed them, let's get to Graham. He was third among tight ends in catches, but eighth in DYAR. He was second behind Witten in targets and led all players at this position with 50 incomplete targets. Graham was a very good tight end this year, just not as good as his reception total would indicate.

Most improved: Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars. Last year, Lewis was the least valuable tight end in the entire league. He was one of the few men in Jacksonville who actually improved in 2012. His catch rate of 68 percent was good for his position, and his yards per catch and yards per target were almost exactly average. And he did it catching passes (well, trying to anyway) from Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne.

Biggest decline: Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers
Gates was hardly a bad player in 2012. He ranked 19th in DYAR, a perfectly fine starting tight end. But he had set the bar awfully high. Since coming into the league in 2003, he had never ranked outside the top 10, had been top three seven times and first overall four times. He caught only 61 percent of the passes thrown in his direction. Gates will be 33 when next season begins; his best days are almost certainly behind him.

 

[Skooby]

The year's best and worst QBs

The 2012 season in a nutshell: Calvin Johnson broke Jerry Rice's record. Adrian Peterson threatened Eric dikkerson's. The league was overtaken by a rookie class the likes of which we may never see again. And the best four quarterbacks in football are now the same guys who have been the best four quarterbacks over the last half-decade or so, especially when viewed through Football Outsiders' exclusive statistical lens.

Using our core advanced metrics -- DYAR and DVOA (explained in depth, here) -- we've gone through the full-season totals at each position and identified the best and worst quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends from this season. The result is a two-day look at the studs and duds of the 2012 season, starting with the quarterbacks on Monday, then the RBs, WRs and TEs on Tuesday. The examination also includes which players have had their performance differ most drastically from their conventional statistics, as well as those players who have had the biggest improvement or decline in their performance from a year ago.

Our annual disclaimer: Numbers are never perfect. We certainly believe that our metrics do a better job of analyzing a player's performance than anything else you'll see, but statistics can't account for some things. We'll point out where the data need some additional context as warranted. Also, remember that DYAR is a cumulative stat, so players who miss time (like Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, who each played very well for San Francisco) will find it harder to make it onto these leaderboards.

Top 5 Quarterbacks

1) Tom Brady, New England Patriots: 2,091 DYAR (2,035 passing DYAR, 56 rushing)
2) Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos: 1,802 DYAR (1,800 passing DYAR, 2 rushing)
3) Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: 1,488 DYAR (1,395 passing DYAR, 94 rushing)
4) Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints: 1,455 DYAR (1,444 passing DYAR, 11 rushing)
5) Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: 1,271 DYAR (1,216 passing DYAR, 55 rushing)

Analysis: This is only the eighth time since 1991 (the first year in Football Outsiders' database) that a quarterback has exceeded 2,000 combined DYAR. Brees and Rodgers have done it once each, Manning has done it twice and Brady has done it four times. Keep in mind that last season we modified our formula so the league average in any given season always comes out to zero. In other words, even accounting for today's record-setting passing environment, Brady, Manning, Rodgers and Brees stand out from their peers like nobody else over the past 20-plus years. (Brees, by the way, joins Brian Sipe in 1979 and Lynn dikkey in 1983 as the only quarterbacks to lead the NFL in touchdowns and interceptions in the same season.) Ryan, meanwhile, set career highs in completions, yards and touchdowns as Atlanta won the most games in the NFC despite the collapse of their ground attack (which we shall discuss Tuesday).

Bonus Top 5: Rookie Edition

1) Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: 1,014 DYAR (867 passing DYAR, 147 rushing)
2) Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins: 838 DYAR (729 passing DYAR, 109 rushing)
3) Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: 379 DYAR (255 passing DYAR, 124 rushing)
4) Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins: 39 DYAR (37 passing DYAR, 2 rushing)
5) Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns: -266 DYAR (-290 passing DYAR, 24 rushing)

Wilson surpasses Ryan for the top rookie quarterback season in FO's database and becomes the first freshman at the position to surpass the 1,000 DYAR barrier. (Ryan actually edged over 1,000 DYAR passing, but negative rushing value dropped him below the line.) He also tied Manning's rookie record with 26 touchdown passes, and when you include his four rushing scores, only Cam Newton (21 touchdowns passing, 14 rushing) produced more combined touchdowns in his first year.

Griffin finishes fourth among rookies in our DYAR database behind Wilson, Ryan and Ben Roethlisberger, and Luck is 13th. Luck set a rookie record with 4,374 passing yards, but he completed fewer than 55 percent of his passes and had 18 interceptions, more than Griffin (5) and Wilson (10) combined. Tannehill had a pretty typical rookie campaign, but Weeden was a bust in his first season; given his advanced age (he's a year and a half older than Ryan), he will need to improve radically in his second season to salvage his NFL career.

Bottom 5

1) Mark Sanchez, New York Jets: -663 DYAR (-611 passing DYAR, -52 rushing)
2) Ryan Lindley, Arizona Cardinals: -484 DYAR (-482 passing DYAR, -1 rushing)
3) Brady Quinn, Kansas City Chiefs: -446 DYAR (-442 passing DYAR, -4 rushing)
4) John Skelton, Arizona Cardinals: -325 DYAR (-323 passing DYAR, -2 rushing)
5) Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs: -319 DYAR (-354 passing DYAR, 35 rushing)

Analysis: How bad was Sanchez? He was least valuable among quarterbacks in both passing and rushing value. You'd like to see quarterbacks improving in their fourth season, but Sanchez was worse than ever -- and this is a passer who has never ranked higher than 20th at his position and only once made the top 30. As for the others, well, it's the Chiefs and Cardinals, who are every bit as bad as you've been led to believe. Skelton deserves special mention: He has now made the bottom six among quarterbacks for three seasons in a row. Obviously, Arizona is desperate for a passer, but it's painfully clear at this point that Skelton does not deserve a spot on an NFL roster.

Better than his standard statistics made him look: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Stafford finished 22nd in passer rating but 12th in DVOA. (Unlike DYAR, DVOA evaluates players on a per-play basis.) Sometimes these discrepancies can be difficult to explain, but sometimes they're simple: No quarterback faced a more challenging set of pass defenses this season than Stafford, something that passer rating does not account for, but DVOA does. Stafford threw an NFL-record 727 passes this season, and 88 of them (more than 12 percent) came against the Chicago Bears, far and away the best defense in the league this year, especially against the pass. He also played the Seahawks, Cardinals, Rams, 49ers, Texans and Packers (twice), meaning he played more than half his games against teams in the top 10 of Football Outsiders' pass defense ratings.

Worse than his standard statistics made him look: Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
Griffin led the league in yards per pass with a higher completion rate and half as many interceptions as Wilson, which may have you wondering how on earth Wilson finished higher in our rankings. Strength of schedule is part of it. Wilson had to endure the brutal NFC West defenses, while Griffin's schedule was somewhat easier than average. Without opponent adjustments, Griffin's DVOA was five points higher than Wilson's; with them, it was three points lower. Also, Griffin's yardage total was skewed by a small number of very big plays. Many of his completions were actually dink-and-dunk plays. All told, 27 percent of his completions failed to gain meaningful yardage toward a new set of downs. Of the 27 quarterbacks with at least 200 completions, only Jay Cutler, Weeden and Christian Ponder had a higher share of dump-offs and checkdowns.

Most improved: Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams
One year ago we listed Bradford under "biggest decline," but he took many steps forward in his third season. He finished 16th in passing DYAR after finishing 39th as a rookie and 43rd in 2011. Bradford averaged more yards and touchdowns per pass than ever before, and like Wilson, he had to play against the nasty defenses of the NFC West.

Biggest decline: Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
Rivers ranked in the top 10 in passing DYAR in each of the past four seasons. This year, he was 22nd. He averaged only 6.8 yards per pass, a full yard below his career average, and that's counting only the plays where he was able to pass at all before hitting the turf. Rivers was sacked 49 times in 2012, 11 more than he had been sacked in any season.

Three surprising players from Week 17

Sam Bradford, QB, St. Louis
With opponent adjustments, this was Bradford's best game of the year and a good omen for 2013. Bradford wasn't sacked by the Seahawks and his only interception came on his last throw of the game in a somewhat desperate situation. He finished 25-of-42 for 252 yards with a touchdown. He was best on throws up the middle, going 10-of-14 for 98 yards and five first downs, including the touchdown.

DuJuan Harris, RB, Green Bay
An undrafted free agent with five games for Jacksonville in 2011, Harris was signed off the practice squad and stuck in the starting lineup in December. In two starts he totaled 15 carries. He didn't start against Minnesota, but he carried 14 times for 70 yards. All of his carries gained positive yards; three went for first downs. He also caught two passes for 17 yards, including an 11-yard gain on first-and-10.

Brandon Marshall, WR, Chicago
In a must-win game for the Bears, their biggest weapon was actually their biggest hindrance. Marshall caught only five passes for 42 yards in 14 targets against Detroit; he also ran once for a 2-yard loss. Only two of his receptions went for first downs. The others included a 1-yard gain on third-and-10 and a 3-yard gain on first-and-10.

 

[Joe Sixpack]

Year's best, worst RBs, receivers

The 2012 season in a nutshell: Calvin Johnson broke Jerry Rice's record. Adrian Peterson threatened Eric dikkerson's. The league was overtaken by a rookie class the likes of which we may never see again. And the best four quarterbacks in football are now the same guys who have been the best four quarterbacks over the last half-decade or so, especially when viewed through Football Outsiders' exclusive statistical lens.

Using our core advanced metrics -- DYAR and DVOA (explained in depth, here) -- we've gone through the full-season totals at each position and identified the best and worst quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends from this season. The result is a two-day look at the studs and duds of the 2012 season. We started with the quarterbacks on Monday, and today we bring you the RBs, WRs and TEs. The examination also includes which players have had their performance differ most drastically from their conventional statistics, as well as those players who have had the biggest improvement or decline in their performance from a year ago.

Our annual disclaimer: Numbers are never perfect. We certainly believe that our metrics do a better job of analyzing a player's performance than anything else you'll see, but statistics can't account for some things. We'll point out where the data need some additional context as warranted. Also, remember that DYAR is a cumulative stat, so players who miss time (like Alex Smith and Colin Kaepernick, who each played very well for San Francisco) will find it harder to make it onto these leaderboards.

Top 5 Running Backs

1) Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings: 454 DYAR (459 rushing DYAR, -5 receiving)
2) Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks: 410 DYAR (361 rushing DYAR, 48 receiving)
3) C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills: 392 DYAR (301 rushing DYAR, 92 receiving)
4) Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers: 317 DYAR (268 rushing DYAR, 49 receiving)
5) Ahmad Bradshaw, New York Giants: 265 DYAR (230 rushing DYAR, 35 receiving)

Analysis: Not many surprises here. Although Peterson's season wasn't quite as impressive as his yardage numbers would indicate (as discussed last week, he is stuffed for a loss far more often than most elite backs), he still had enough rushing value to top the list of all players at his position despite finishing below replacement level as a receiver.

Lynch set career highs with 1,590 yards rushing and 5.0 yards per carry. Spiller averaged 6.0 yards on 207 carries. He and Peterson (6.0 yard average on 348 carries) are the fifth and sixth players in NFL history to top 6.0 yards per rush on at least 200 carries, joining Jim Brown, O.J. Simpson, Barry Sanders and Jamaal Charles.

Bradshaw is an odd case. He had only six rushing touchdowns on the season, but he led the league in red zone rushing value, constantly putting his teammates in position to score while rarely crossing the goal-line himself.

Two names who just missed the list also warrant mention: Joique Bell of the Detroit Lions finished a few decimal points behind Bradshaw. With 52 catches for 485 yards, he has become one of the league's premier receivers at his position. In seventh place was Washington's rookie sensation Alfred Morris. He finished fifth in rushing value alone, but was below replacement level as a receiver, and he failed to make the top 10 rookie seasons since 1991.

Bottom 5 Running Backs

1) Darren McFadden, Oakland Raiders: -234 DYAR (-155 rushing DYAR, -79 receiving)
2) Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons: -112 DYAR (-78 rushing DYAR, -34 receiving)
3) Rashad Jennings, Jacksonville Jaguars: -108 DYAR (-97 rushing DYAR, -11 receiving)
4) LaRod Stephens-Howling, Arizona Cardinals: -103 DYAR (-63 rushing DYAR, -40 receiving)
5) Ryan Williams, Arizona Cardinals: -85 DYAR (-85 rushing DYAR, 0 receiving)

Analysis: Honestly, it's hard to tell which of these backs was the worst. Jennings and Williams averaged 2.8 yards per carry. Stephens-Howling didn't run very often, but he was so unhelpful as a receiver (57 percent catch rate, next to last among backs with at least 25 targets) that he still makes this list. And when he did run, Stephens-Howling was stuffed on more than one-third of his attempts. McFadden's Success Rate was only 36 percent. Honestly, Turner was probably the best of the bunch, but because he was still below replacement level and ran 222 times, he nearly made it to the very bottom.

Better than his standard statistics made him look: Danny Woodhead, New England Patriots
Woodhead made the top 10 among running backs in total DYAR, despite ranking 33rd at his position in yards from scrimmage. His 4.0-yard average is nothing to write home about, but he was the model of consistency. His Success Rate (55 percent) and Stuff Rate (13 percent) were both much better than league averages (47 percent and 20 percent, respectively).

Worse than his standard statistics made him look: McFadden
The Raiders runner gained nearly 1,000 yards from scrimmage, but it took him so many bad plays to get there that it was hardly worth it. He was stuffed 22 percent of the time and averaged only 3.3 yards per carry. And he gained 259 yards receiving, but only 4.0 yards per target. The average for running backs was 5.8.

Most improved: Gore
One year ago, Gore failed to make the top 40 in DYAR, DVOA or Success Rate. This year, he was top five in DYAR, top 10 in DVOA and top 20 in Success Rate.

Biggest decline: LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles: McCoy was a top-five running back in total DYAR last year, but he had only 87 total DYAR in 2012. That's partly because he missed four games, but he also had four fumbles and was stuffed 28 percent of the time.

Top 5 Wide Receivers

1) Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions: 470 DYAR
2) Andre Johnson, Houston Texans: 413 DYAR
3) Randall Cobb, Green Bay Packers: 393 DYAR (295 receiving DYAR, 98 rushing)
4) Demaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos: 393 DYAR
5) Eric Decker, Denver Broncos: 389 DYAR

Analysis: Calvin Johnson leads the league in this category for the second year in a row. Although he broke Jerry Rice's record for receiving yards in a season, his DYAR actually plunged sharply because of a decline in yards per catch and touchdowns. Andre Johnson makes the top 10 for the fourth time in six seasons. Cobb sort of took over Jordy Nelson's role of "Green Bay wideout who excels as the fourth option on most plays" this season. We'll have more to say about Thomas and Decker under "most improved."

Bottom 5 Wide Receivers

1) Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals: -129 DYAR
2) Louis Murphy, Carolina Panthers: -118 DYAR
3) Mike Thomas, Jacksonville Jaguars: -97 DYAR (-135 receiving DYAR, 38 rushing)
4) Early Doucet, Arizona Cardinals: -95 DYAR (-96 receiving DYAR, 1 rushing)
5) Kevin Elliott, Jacksonville Jaguars: -94 DYAR

Analysis: Dear Larry Fitzgerald: It's not your fault. We know it. Everyone knows it. Individual receiving numbers often tell us as much about quarterbacks as they do about receivers. Really, it's probably not Mike Thomas' or Early Doucet's fault either. Kevin Elliott? Yeah, it's probably his fault. He had only 10 receptions (plus a couple of DPIs) in 33 targets before being waived in December. And Louis Murphy had only 25 receptions and one touchdown in 62 targets while playing with Cam Newton.

Better than his standard statistics made him look: Danario Alexander, San Diego Chargers
Alexander was 73rd among wideouts with 38 catches, but 16th in DYAR. He averaged 17.8 yards per catch with seven touchdowns, and he caught 60 percent of the passes thrown his way, slightly above average for wide receivers.

Worse than his standard statistics made him look: Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts
Wayne was fifth at his position with 111 catches, but 42nd in DYAR. He had a 55 percent catch rate and led the league with 92 incomplete targets.

Most improved: Thomas and Decker
Thomas ranked 37th among wide receivers in DYAR in 2011. Decker was 71st (not a typo). My goodness, what on earth could have happened in Denver that might have boosted both men into the top five? What personnel move could possibly explain the additional catches, the yards, the touchdowns? Perhaps Broncos wide receivers coach Tyke Tolbert is a literal miracle worker who can make blind men see and uncoordinated men catch. Yes. That's the only rational explanation.

Biggest decline: Mike Wallace, Pittsburgh Steelers
Since entering the league in 2009, Wallace has ranked 16th, first and fifth in DYAR. This year, he was 80th. He averaged 13.1 yards per catch, 3 yards fewer than his previous career low; he also had a career-worst 54 percent catch rate. Wallace began the year by holding out of training camp in hopes of getting a new contract. The Steelers refused to make an offer, a decision that looks brilliant with the benefit of hindsight. Wallace ended the season on IR with a hip injury and will be a free agent after the season unless the Steelers slap him with the franchise tag. Don't hold your breath waiting for that to happen.

Top 5 Tight Ends

1) Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots: 268 DYAR
2) Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons: 235 DYAR
3) Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers: 193 DYAR
4) Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys: 183 DYAR
5) Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers: 136 DYAR

Analysis: What we have here is the best tight end in the game today; the best tight end of all time; a record setter; and two solid veterans who had unusually productive years. Gronkowski leads all tight ends in DYAR despite missing five games. He was second in his rookie season in 2010, and his 2011 season was the best of any tight end in our database. For Gonzalez, it's his 12th season in the top five and his ninth at either No. 1 or 2. All Witten did this year was set a tight end record with 110 catches (albeit with a career-worst 9.4 yards per reception). In his eighth season, Miller had career highs in yardage (816) and touchdowns (eight) and was voted team MVP. Olsen also set career highs with 69 catches and 843 yards.

Bottom 5 Tight Ends

1) Brandon Pettigrew, Detroit Lions: -128 DYAR
2) Alex Smith, Cleveland Browns: -80 DYAR
3) Clay Harbor, Philadelphia Eagles: -78 DYAR
4) Kellen Davis, Chicago Bears: -53 DYAR
5) Evan Moore, Seahawks/Eagles: -53 DYAR

Analysis: Pettigrew had 59 catches for 567 yards, but a catch rate of just 58 percent (average for tight ends was 64 percent) and he fumbled four times. No other tight end fumbled more than twice. Smith's catch rate was an impressive 72 percent, but only two of his catches gained first downs; his other 11 catches totaled -- totaled -- 20 yards.

Harbor averaged 7.4 yards per catch, worst of any tight end with at least 25 receptions. He went on injured reserve in December and his replacement was much, much worse. Davis' catch rate was only 43 percent.

And finally there's Moore. The Seahawks threw him seven passes. He produced one completion, one DPI, five incompletes and 6 total yards. He was waived in December, and Philadelphia signed him to replace Harbor, which sounds like some kind of sick prank on, well, everyone. They threw him two passes; both were incomplete.

Better than his standard statistics made him look: Gronkowski
No one else comes close. There were 49 tight ends this year with at least 25 targets. Among that group, Gronk ranked 13th in catches, but seventh in yards, fourth in first downs, third in yards per catch and yards per target, and first in touchdowns. Meanwhile, he was 25th in incomplete targets.

Worse than his standard statistics made him look: Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints
Pettigrew and Witten would also be solid choices here, but since we already discussed them, let's get to Graham. He was third among tight ends in catches, but eighth in DYAR. He was second behind Witten in targets and led all players at this position with 50 incomplete targets. Graham was a very good tight end this year, just not as good as his reception total would indicate.

Most improved: Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars. Last year, Lewis was the least valuable tight end in the entire league. He was one of the few men in Jacksonville who actually improved in 2012. His catch rate of 68 percent was good for his position, and his yards per catch and yards per target were almost exactly average. And he did it catching passes (well, trying to anyway) from Blaine Gabbert and Chad Henne.

Biggest decline: Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers
Gates was hardly a bad player in 2012. He ranked 19th in DYAR, a perfectly fine starting tight end. But he had set the bar awfully high. Since coming into the league in 2003, he had never ranked outside the top 10, had been top three seven times and first overall four times. He caught only 61 percent of the passes thrown in his direction. Gates will be 33 when next season begins; his best days are almost certainly behind him.

fukkin haters.. So did Barry Sanders!

 

[mastermind]

Better season, AP or Megatron?

Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson made history this weekend against Atlanta. Johnson gained 225 receiving yards against the Falcons, bringing his season total to 1,892, breaking the record of 1,848 set by San Francisco's Jerry Rice in 1995. That record lasted for 17 years. Eric dikkerson's record of 2,105 yards rushing, set in 1984, has lasted even longer, but that mark too is in jeopardy. Despite a modest output Sunday against Houston, Minnesota's Adrian Peterson has 1,898 yards on the ground this season, and he can surpass dikkerson's mark with 208 yards next week against Green Bay -- the same Green Bay team that let Peterson run for 210 yards in Week 12.

There's a problem with all these numbers, though. Total yardage tells us only part of what each player did in a given season. In a nutshell, it tells us a lot about the good plays a runner or receiver made, but it doesn't say much about the bad plays -- the incomplete passes on bad routes, the stuffs in the backfield when a running back took a poor angle, the fumbles, and other gaffes. For that we can turn to DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement), Football Outsiders' metric that examines every play of the NFL season and measures its value in terms of producing yards, first downs, turnovers and touchdowns, then adjusts for factors such as down, distance, field position, score, opponent, and other factors. (More info available here.) So who is having the better year?

According to DYAR, Johnson's season has been truly elite, but Peterson's campaign has been less valuable to the Vikings than fantasy numbers or highlight reels would have you believe.

We'll start with Johnson, because his status is more straightforward. The following table shows the top wide receiver seasons in DYAR since 1991, including Johnson this season (projected over 16 games):

Megatron's Mega-season

Top wide receiver seasons by DYAR, 1991-2012, projected over 16 games:

Year Name Team DYAR Passes Catches Yards TD Catch % Yds/Pass
1995 Michael Irvin DAL 599 165 111 1,603 10 67% 9.72
2011 Calvin Johnson DET 570 158 96 1,680 16 61% 10.63
2007 Randy Moss NE 564 160 98 1,482 23 61% 9.26
2001 Marvin Harrison IND 548 164 109 1,524 15 66% 9.29
2012 Calvin Johnson DET 533* 203* 125* 2,018* 5* 62% 9.96
2011 Jordy Nelson GB 517 96 68 1,263 15 71% 13.16
2006 Marvin Harrison IND 513 148 95 1,366 12 64% 9.23
1995 Jerry Rice SF 512 175 122 1,848 15 70% 10.56
1994 Jerry Rice SF 512 150 112 1,499 13 75% 9.99
2008 Andre Johnson HOU 510 171 115 1,575 8 67% 9.21
2003 Randy Moss MIN 508 172 112 1,632 17 65% 9.49

Johnson's catch rate and yards per pass are good, but nothing special among this group, and his touchdown total is relatively poor. Johnson's most eye-popping statistic (besides his yardage, obviously) is the sum of his targets. Johnson has 190 targets so far this season with one game to go. He's a safe bet to become the fourth player since 1991 to amass 200 targets in a season, joining former Lion Herman Moore (who had 206 in 1995), former Colt Marvin Harrison (202, 1995) and former Cardinal Rob Moore (208, 1997). Johnson is delivering like nobody else ever has in history, but that's largely because he has been given opportunities to deliver like very few men before him.

By the way, if Johnson goes wild against the Bears this Sunday, he has a very slim chance to finish atop this list. He'll need 100 DYAR against Chicago to top Michael Irvin's 1995 season for Dallas. The best game for a receiver this year was Andre Johnson's 85-DYAR outing against Jacksonville in Week 11. The Houston Texans wideout caught 14 passes in 19 targets for 273 yards and a touchdown against the Jaguars. That's the ballpark of what Calvin Johnson will need this weekend, though he'll also get a sturdy boost in DYAR for playing the still-solid Chicago defense.

Now what about Peterson? The Vikings' running back does not project to finish among the top runners in our DYAR database, but we're listing him here with the leaders to demonstrate what his strengths and weaknesses have been this season, and how extreme those strengths and weaknesses have been:

All Day

Top RB seasons by Rushing DYAR, 1991-2012, projected over 16 games:

Year Name Team DYAR Runs Yards Avg. TD FUM Success Rate Stuff Rate
1998 Terrell Davis DEN 602 392 2,008 5.12 21 1 52% 18%
1999 Stephen Davis WAS 526 290 1,407 4.85 17 3 60% 12%
1997 Terrell Davis DEN 526 369 1,743 4.72 15 4 56% 13%
1995 Emmitt Smith DAL 505 375 1,770 4.72 25 7 53% 17%
2000 Marshall Faulk STL 501 253 1,359 5.37 18 0 61% 11%
2002 Priest Holmes KC 497 313 1,615 5.16 21 1 55% 18%
2005 Larry Johnson KC 488 335 1,741 5.20 20 5 55% 14%
2003 Priest Holmes KC 485 320 1,420 4.44 27 1 58% 18%
1994 Emmitt Smith DAL 461 368 1,484 4.03 21 1 52% 17%
2006 LaDainian Tomlinson SD 460 347 1,813 5.22 28 2 49% 14%
2012 Adrian Peterson MIN 388* 335* 2,025* 6.04 12* 3* 49% 24%

Peterson's carry and fumble numbers sit in the middle of this pack, and though his touchdowns are on the low side, he more than makes up for it with an average gain that blows these players -- the best of the best -- out of the water. However, his success rate (the percentage of carries that gain meaningful yardage toward a new set of downs, explained here) pales in comparison to the rest of his peers, and he gets stuffed in the backfield at a staggering rate, more than twice as often as some of these other backs.

Those negative runs leave Christian Ponder and the Vikings' offense in long-yardage situations far too often, and that's why Peterson's DYAR will fall outside the top 10 in the DYAR database. With 388 DYAR, Peterson would rank 17th.

(By the way, this high-average/high-stuff-rate combo is not unprecedented. In 1997, Detroit's Barry Sanders gained 2,053 yards and averaged 6.13 yards per carry, but he was stuffed on 22 percent of his runs.)

Is Peterson solely responsible for his stuff rate? Of course not. His offensive linemen deserve their share of the blame as well. On the other hand, they also deserve some credit for clearing the path for Peterson to rip off some of his longer runs. Our in-depth play-by-play analysis gives us a lot more information than simple yardage totals, but we still can't totally separate the performance of a runner from his offensive line. For what it's worth, Peterson's teammate Toby Gerhart has a stuff rate of 22 percent, which is very high, but still lower than Peterson's, and Minnesota's offensive line fares well in our run-blocking metrics.

If this sounds like an attempt to disparage either Johnson or (especially) Peterson, that's not the intent. Over the course of the season, our numbers say they have still been the most valuable receiver and runner in the league this year, and Peterson's accomplishments this season look particularly remarkable given the comeback he has made from the ACL injury of 2011. There's a lot more to winning games than racking up real estate, though, and as great as this duo has been, we have seen a handful of more valuable players in the past couple of decades.

WEEK 16 DYAR BEST AND WORST
DYAR is Football Outsiders' proprietary metric that measures performance on every play against expected performance for that situation. For a deeper explanation and a full breakdown of the numbers, visit Football Outsiders.

Three surprising players

Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore
In his past five games, Flacco completed 57 percent of his passes with 6.4 yards per pass. That kind of production from the quarterback position isn't going to earn many wins against playoff teams. The Ravens' game against the Giants on Sunday had serious postseason ramifications, and a Baltimore loss would have been their fourth in a row, setting up a winner-take-all showdown for the AFC North title in Week 17. Flacco showed up big against New York, though, completing 25 of 36 passes for 318 yards with two touchdowns and no sacks or interceptions. He was at his best on third downs, going 11-of-14 for 137 yards and 10 first downs, including a goal-to-go touchdown, plus a 17-yard DPI. He even had a pair of conversions on separate third-and-19 plays. It was as good as we've seen Flacco in a while.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle
The Seattle Seahawks have scored 150 points in their past three games, thanks in large part to Lynch's production. Lynch has been the top running back in our rankings for three weeks in a row now, which is quite possibly a first in the history of Quick Reads. He's only carrying the ball about 15 times a game in that stretch, but he's averaging 7.5 yards per carry. He has been stuffed for no gain or a loss four times, but he has run for 10 or more yards 12 times, with five touchdowns and 10 other first downs. He has only three receptions in those three games, but each of those catches has gained at least 9 yards and a first down, including a touchdown on second-and-goal from the 9.

Lance Kendricks, TE, St. Louis
A second-round pick out of Wisconsin in 2011, Kendricks averaged less than 25 yards per game in his first 29 appearances, never gaining more than 71 yards. He topped that in one play against Tampa Bay on Sunday, finishing with four catches in five targets for 119 yards and a touchdown. His first three receptions each went for first down: a 7-yard gain on third-and-6, a 13-yard gain on second-and-9 and a 19-yard gain on second-and-8. His final reception: an 80-yard touchdown on the first play from scrimmage of the second half.

the Adrian Peterson article is justification for the who people dont respect advanced stats in football.

I like them, but that article has me

 

[Skooby]

Skooby If You Ever Have Any Knicks Related Insider Stuff I'd Appreciate It Bruh

Are the Knicks legit contenders?

With the way the New York Knicks have laid down defensively over the past month, defensive sieve Amar'e Stoudemire should have no problems fitting in right away.

After an almost magical start to the season, the Knicks stumble into Thursday night's matchup against the San Antonio Spurs having lost five of their past eight games. But contrary to popular belief, their recent skid has little to do with their 3-point-dependent offense coming up empty.

No, it has much more to do with the fact that they've taken the holidays off on the defensive end of the floor.

Rewind to Dec. 7, the morning after the Knicks spanked the defending champion Miami Heat on national television 112-92, even without Carmelo Anthony. Things were good in Knicks Nation. New York ranked comfortably atop the East with a 14-4 record, boasting the league's most efficient offense and an 11th-ranked defense anchored by a supposedly rejuvenated Anthony and reigning Defensive Player of the Year Tyson Chandler.

That seems like more than a month ago, doesn't it? They've gone just 7-6 since that Melo-less romp in Miami while absorbing various injuries to Anthony, Chandler, Raymond Felton and Rasheed Wallace. They've looked every bit like the injury-rattled, slightly above .500 team that many expected of the ancient, if talented, roster -- not the title contender that many Knicks fans hoped after a hot start.

But save me the "live by the 3, die by the 3" knee-jerk diagnosis. The Knicks haven't been lights-out from downtown lately, but did you really expect them to shoot 42 percent from downtown all season? The inevitable regression to the mean should be a shock to exactly no one, and the reports of the Knicks' death by 3-point shot have been greatly exaggerated.

In fact, the Knicks have shot 35.9 percent from beyond the arc during their slide since Dec. 6, a conversion rate that still ranks above the league average. The horror! Sure, it's convenient to point out that Mike D'Antoni's Phoenix Suns never won a title by shooting nothing but 3-pointers, but it glosses over the fact that there's actually a track record of success for teams reliant on the long ball.

Let's take a quick stroll through history. Most recently, the 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks title team, anchored by Chandler, by the way, ranked fifth in 3-point attempts. The 2008-09 Magic reached the NBA Finals while having the most 3-point-dependent offense in the league. The 2006-07 Spurs shot more 3s than D'Antoni's Suns in their Western Conference semifinal matchup (gasp!) and then eventually won the championship. And then there's the Houston Rockets, who won back-to-back titles in 1994 and 1995 after shooting 100 more 3-pointers than any other team in each banner-raising campaign.

The problem for the Knicks isn't that their 3-point shot has gotten cold(er), but rather that their defense hasn't been able to absorb a slight thawing. Since the Melo-less win in Miami, the Knicks have allowed a bloated 106.3 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com's advanced stats tool, a rate that would rank 27th in the league over the entire season. After being a borderline top-10 defense for the opening month of the season, the Knicks' D has essentially been a doormat for opposing teams.

So what's the issue? The Knicks haven't bothered to play defense until the fourth quarter -- and that's often a little too late. This isn't just an knee-jerk overreaction to the past two losses to Sacramento and Portland when the Knicks couldn't overcome double-digit halftime deficits. This trend has lasted all season long. The Knicks currently rank 28th in first-half defense, and the only time they've looked like an above-average defensive team is after three quarters.

Knicks by quarter this season

Q ORtg Rank DRtg Rank
Courtesy of NBA.com
1 111.3 2nd 105.7 24th
2 110.5 3rd 107.6 24th
3 106.3 3rd 103.0 19th
4 110.0 2nd 95.1 3rd

Problems had surfaced long before injuries forced the Knicks to start a 40-year-old Kurt Thomas and James White. Coach Mike Woodson has tried to balance their offensively skewed squad by inserting the defense-focused Ronnie Brewer into the starting lineup, but the results have been disastrous.

Numbers from NBA.com's advanced stats tool tell us that the lineup of Felton, Jason Kidd, Brewer, Anthony and Chandler has played 71 minutes together since Dec. 1, giving up a pathetic 116.7 points per 100 possessions. That's the worst defensive rating for any of the 30 units across the NBA that have logged at least 70 minutes over that time. Adding insult to injury, that lineup's offense has scored a measly 85.4 points per 100 possessions during the same period.

Going small hasn't paid dividends for the Knicks lately, and it raises an important question: Does sliding Anthony to the 4 make sense if even an NBA Defensive Player of the Year can't compensate for their woes on that end of the floor? The issues go beyond Anthony, who will never be confused with LeBron James as a defender. Kidd and Pablo Prigioni are older than time by NBA standards, and their lack of athleticism has been exposed when asked to move more than a foot in either direction.

Compounding the lack of mobility is that the Knicks just don't have reliable options outside of Chandler to plug the middle. Opponents have absolutely slammed the Knicks in the pick-and-roll this season -- they rank ninth-worst in the NBA, according to SynergySports, when the ball handler makes a scoring play -- but much of the damage is done when ball handlers keep Chandler on an island off the ball and exploit Steve Novak and Thomas' glacierlike foot speed in open space.

Small ball can work only if the perimeter defense is rock-solid, and that hasn't been the case with the Knicks lately. So if the Knicks can't go small, they'll have to go big, right?

Therein lies the problem. Stoudemire carries a reputation of a star fit for coming to the rescue, but he's likely to make the Knicks' defensive issues worse, not better. He looked absolutely lost in Tuesday's loss to the Blazers, which can be excused because of rustiness. But the larger sample of the past three years points to an outlook just as grim.

Despite their lofty contracts and reputations that have approached MVP candidate territory at times, the Knicks have been outscored with the Anthony-Stoudemire partnership on the floor by 2.3 points every 100 possessions since 2010-11. That's a sample size that is as big as you can get (1,659 minutes). The offense with them together would rank 10th in today's NBA, but the defense -- 27th.

Chandler makes it all better, right? Wrong. In fact, the star trio of Anthony-Stoudemire-Chandler also has been a losing combination, being outscored by 1.8 points per 100 possessions in their time together on the floor. Why? The offense absolutely tanks with Anthony and those two bigs in the paint, scoring 98.5 points per 100 possessions over 794 minutes. You know who has a better offensive efficiency than that? The 2012-13 Bobcats, currently sporting 98.7 points per 100 possessions, which is good for fourth-to-last this season.

The news isn't all bad, Knicks fans. Look at the schedule. The Knicks have 12 games left in January, and Thursday night's test against the Spurs represents the only one against a top-10 offense. And who knows, coach Gregg Popovich may or may not place a call to Southwest Airlines, seeing as it's a back-to-back and their fourth game in five nights. All in all, nine of the Knicks' next 12 opponents are below-average offenses, and the three that aren't will be played in Madison Square Garden.

Under normal circumstances, the soft schedule would mean the Knicks are poised for a defensive correction, but these aren't normal circumstances. Integrating a healthy Stoudemire on the defensive end would be tough as it is, but he's nowhere near 100 percent, as was evident by his grounded game Tuesday.

The Knicks' title-contention status has always rested on their defense, and considering Woodson's reputation as a defense-minded coach, that status is ironically on increasingly shaky ground. Are the Knicks legitimate contenders? With the defense reeling and Stoudemire's integration looming, the Knicks have more questions than answers.

 

[Skooby]

Skooby If You Ever Have Any Knicks Related Insider Stuff I'd Appreciate It Bruh

The Amar'e Stoudemire dilemma
By Chris Broussard @Chris Broussard @Chris Broussard's Sources

He's baaack!

So now what?

Now that Amar'e Stoudemire has returned to the Knicks, how should coach Mike Woodson handle this delicate situation? Should Stoudemire come off the bench -- not just now while he's returning to form, but long term -- or should he start and, along with Tyson Chandler and Carmelo Anthony, give the Knicks a huge, well-decorated front line?

And what about the endgame? Should the Knicks go small down the stretch, with Anthony at the 4, their best defender in Chandler at the 5 and Stoudemire on the bench?

For a team that has started the season so well, the Knicks sure have a lot of questions. To answer them, we consulted a stellar group of NBA basketball minds -- three assistant coaches and two longtime scouts -- to see how they would handle the sticky Stoudemire situation.

The Eastern Conference assistant coach:


"I think Amar'e has to come off the bench right now. For one, he hasn't been in the mix; he's missed a ton of games and he has to get his game back. But even coming off the bench, he still can play a key role for them. Of the four bigs they have outside of Chandler -- Rasheed Wallace, Marcus Camby, Kurt Thomas and Stoudemire -- I think Stoudemire is the most valuable because of his ability to score. Even though I'd have Amar'e come off the bench long term, I do think he and 'Melo' can excel together. Those two can play together depending on the matchup.

"When teams go small, it may be hard to have Chandler on the floor because he'll have difficulty defending a jump-shooting 5, like Chris Bosh. So Woody [Mike Woodson] has to come up with a creative way to have both of them on the court together. If you have Melo at the 4 and Amar'e at the 5, what 5 is going to run with Amar'e? In a case like that, I think it'll be hard for a team to guard both of them. So I think they have to play in transition, play fast, to have Amar'e and Melo excel together. I think Amar'e's mature enough to realize that he needs at least 15 games to get back to his former level, to understand where his teammates want the ball and things like that.

"The problem is this: Once Amar'e gets his game back, he's going to want to play. But for now he's got to show that he can do it. In his first game back, you could see that he's far away from being able to close out a game. It's a good problem to have, though. It's not like they're sitting there saying, 'Damn, we got nothing at this position."'

The Western Conference scout:

"I would bring Stoudemire off the bench. I think this could be a big problem for the Knicks. Because once Stoudemire starts getting in shape, he's going to want to play more minutes. He may be fine coming off the bench, but I think the bigger issue is that he's going to want to be in at the end of games. And I definitely don't think he and Melo can play well together. I think Stoudemire likes a lot of attention, and when he's on the floor with Melo it cuts down the space where Melo can operate. It forces Melo to operate almost exclusively from the perimeter. Melo's dangerous on the block, but they can't both be on the block. And defensively, Stoudemire's not a good defender at all. And he's not a good rebounder. It's easy to say he should just focus on defending and rebounding, but at 30 years old, you can't start rebounding now."

The Western Conference assistant coach:

"With Melo being the player he is and Amar'e being the player he is now, I think Amar'e has to take a backseat. If he's not willing to take a backseat to Melo, it won't work. Some guys just have to realize that the farther along you get in your career, your play diminishes. At the end of the day, you have to say to yourself, 'Am I here for the rest of the team or for my individual game?' But it's very hard to say that. Some guys don't realize how far their game has fallen from where it used to be. It's hard because you're ego-driven, you're macho and you don't want to come to grips with the fact that 'I'm not 'the man' anymore.'

"Amar'e may say the right things, but inside it's going to be eating at him. Every player wants to be 'the man' on his team and the reason the team wins, so it's going to be hard. But I wouldn't change the lineup if I'm the Knicks. I'd bring Amar'e off the bench. They've been playing well without him so why change the lineup? I don't know if Amar'e can be a great rebounder at this stage. I watched him in his first game back and he was getting pounded on the boards. He couldn't get a rebound. As he's grown older, his rebounding has gotten worse and worse.

"And he's been out such a long time that he's not going to know the defensive concepts of the team yet. He's going to be slow on defense. Is he going to be a great one-on-one defensive stopper? No, I don't think so. But as time goes on, he should be able to play good team defense. Look, as talented as he is, they can always use him at the 4 spot. When Melo or Chandler goes out of the game, they can look to load up Amar'e and J.R. Smith."

The Eastern Conference scout:

"Woody's doing a really good job with this team and he's not afraid to confront a situation like this. A lot of coaches would cave in, but Woody will always do what's best for the team. It all comes down to Amar'e's attitude and how he approaches it. He might say, 'Hey, you're paying me $20 million, I should start.' Some coaches would hear that and decide they have to start him. I don't think Woody will do that, though. And I don't think at this stage of his career Amar'e will say that.

"Amar'e has to prove he can help the Knicks win. They can't worry about keeping Amar'e happy. They can't afford to take a step backward. Maybe he'll get to the point where he can play well and help them. But if he's not playing well, I guarantee he'll be on the bench. I think that's how Woody will handle it. I don't think the Knicks will play him just to appease him. I think they'll play to win and do what it takes. If he's not helping them, he'll be on the bench at the end of games. You're talking about a strong personality in Mike Woodson. He's not the type to kowtow to a player. He's not going to play Stoudemire at the end of the game just because he's Amar'e Stoudemire. If he earns it, he'll play. But he has to earn it.

"Honestly, I think his days of being an elite player are over. I think at this point he can be a cog in the wheel that helps them win. How much he helps them? I can't tell. His body is breaking down. He's probably got the body of a 36-year-old. He probably has to play in pain to a degree and that's not easy and that will limit his success. Then, on top of that, he has a bad back. Because of those things, I don't think he'll ever be the player he was. At best, he'll be in the rotation. If he starts, I don't think he can play big minutes because in two or three weeks, his knees will start to swell, his back will start to bother him and he'll be out of the lineup. And that disrupts the team's chemistry. And Woody's main focus is to not disrupt the chemistry.

"On paper, a starting front line of Tyson, Amar'e and Melo looks really good, but I think it takes a little bit away from them as a team. I think they're better with Melo at the 4. The way the league is now, there aren't a lot of big guys. They've got a nice guy in the middle who can protect the middle in Chandler, so you can afford to play Melo at the 4. Melo's a pretty good rebounder, he's a strong guy and he gives opposing 4s fits. At times, they can play that big lineup with Amar'e, Melo and Chandler but I think that'll stagnate the team a little bit. If you try to force-feed that lineup, you're slower and Melo's not as comfortable in his situation. Against a few teams -- like Memphis or the Clippers or Oklahoma City -- that have a pair of dominating big men, you can try that big lineup.

"If the Knicks can figure out how to play two different ways -- big and small -- they could be pretty good. I think a lineup with Melo at the 4 gets you more wins, but come April when the game changes and slows down in the playoffs, maybe Amar'e, Chandler and Melo can play together. Like I said, if they can play those two different ways, it could be good for them. Overall, though, I don't think Amar'e can change his game. I think he is who he is. Amar'e's always been an offensive force. When he's on the floor, he's going to want to score and want to shoot. I don't think you can get him to play a role like Chandler plays. So if he's on the floor with Melo, the ball's got to go through him, too. Maybe the first three or four games, he'll accept a lesser role, but as the season goes on, I don't think he's going to want to be that type of player. He's making $20 million a year -- I don't think he'll accept being a specialty-type player."

Another Western Conference assistant coach:

"I think the smartest thing would be to bring Amar'e off the bench. He and Melo are basically the same position. They take up the same space. They play different ways, but they take up the same space. When you're playing against them, if they're both on the floor, it makes it easier because Melo doesn't space the floor. I can take away Amar'e's pick-and-roll game with my weakside defender because Melo's not going to be out by the 3-point line. He'll be at 20 feet in the elbow area. Those few feet make a difference.

"I would talk Amar'e into coming off the bench. I'd say, 'We're going to make you the sixth man of the year. We're going to feature you. We'll open up the floor for you, get some shooters out there with you and let you do your thing.' If I'm Woody, I'm bringing Amar'e in as a 4 and as a 5 for both Melo and Tyson. But you can't play Melo, Amar'e and Tyson together. In today's NBA, playing big is a gamble. The game is so fast. If you put Amar'e, Melo and Tyson out there, the floor is going to be too clogged up."

 

[ThaBronxBully]

@Skooby


Thank You Breh

 

[Jplaya2023]

Where Alabama, Notre Dame rank among BCS title participants of last five seasons - College Football - ESPN

 

[Skooby]

Where Alabama, Notre Dame rank among BCS title participants of last five seasons - College Football - ESPN

Top title participants since '08

Notre Dame and Alabama face off next week in the Discover BCS National Championship, and the matchup between historical powers is one of the most anticipated college football games in years. Notre Dame is the nation's only eligible undefeated team, and Alabama is the one-loss champion of the SEC. Both teams rank among the top 10 in all-time winning percentage, and no other schools claim more national titles than these programs.

On the field, the game is expected to be an epic defensive clash, featuring the top two scoring defenses in the nation. One hundred and one FBS teams gave up more points per game than Alabama (10.7 points per game surrendered) and Notre Dame (10.3 points) did combined. Neither offense is particularly flashy, but they've been efficient, especially Alabama's offense, which averages 3.3 points per drive, the seventh-best rate in the nation. Both offenses have logged strong rushing totals against top rushing defenses, but will face their toughest tests in the title game.

Unlike many other years in the BCS era, there is no controversy about this year's title game participants. But how do Notre Dame and Alabama compare to recent teams that played for the BCS championship?

We ranked the BCS title game participants of the past five seasons (2008 season through 2012 season) in order from 1-10, based on our drive-based, opponent-adjusted FEI ratings. (These overall ratings measure the opponent-adjusted efficiency of each team, its ability to generate value on its own possessions and limit the value generated by its opponent. The rankings don't take into account whether the team won the title game.)

Where do this year's Fighting Irish and Crimson Tide teams rank? And what does that mean for their head-to-head matchup on Monday? Let's take a look.


1. 2008 Florida Gators

Overall FEI rating: 0.356
Urban Meyer's second championship team tops our list, despite the Gators' loss to Ole Miss early in the year. Florida ripped off dominating wins down the stretch, including four victories over top-10 opponents by a combined 90 points. More than any other recent champion, Florida excelled in all three phases of the game, ranking third in opponent-adjusted offense, first in opponent-adjusted defense and second in special-teams efficiency.


2. 2010 Auburn Tigers

Overall FEI rating: 0.348
The Tigers won a number of close games in their championship run, but only one other national title participant in the last five years (2011 LSU) played a tougher schedule according to our data. And behind Cam Newton, Auburn's offense was as good as it gets, boasting the second-best opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency in college football over the last five seasons (slightly behind 2011 Baylor) against one of the toughest sets of opposing defenses in the country.


3. 2009 Alabama Crimson Tide

Overall FEI rating: 0.342
Alabama's 2009 team is widely recognized as one of the best in the Crimson Tide's illustrious history, going undefeated in the SEC and dominating both Florida in the SEC title game and Texas in the BCS championship. The defense was stellar, though not as exceptional as the Crimson Tide defense two years later. The offense was effective, but ranks last among the BCS championship game participants of the last five years in terms of points per drive.


4. 2011 LSU Tigers

Overall FEI rating: 0.318
The Tigers didn't take home a title, but taking their season as a whole, they certainly distinguished themselves in comparison to any of the other BCS runners-up in the last five years. LSU played the nation's toughest schedule, winning games away from Baton Rouge against Big East champion West Virginia, Pac-12 champion Oregon and BCS champion Alabama.


5. 2011 Alabama Crimson Tide

Overall FEI rating: 0.306
The Crimson Tide last season had the most statistically dominant defense we've measured in terms of unadjusted stats, leading the nation in forcing three-and-outs (on an astounding 59.7 percent of opponent drives), available yards surrendered, and limiting opponent methodical and explosive drives. What holds them back is the relative weakness of the offenses they faced -- Alabama ranked 78th in defensive strength of schedule last year, while all the other SEC title-bound teams ranked in the top 20 in this category.


6. 2012 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Overall FEI rating: 0.288
Notre Dame enters this year's national championship game as an underdog, but according to our numbers, the Irish can consider themselves to have a relatively favorable draw. The Crimson Tide are a strong team this year, but not as strong as the SEC teams that reached the title game in any of the previous four seasons. According to our projections, the Irish have about a 15 percent better chance to beat Alabama this year than they would have had against the average SEC champ in the last four years.

The strength of the Irish this year has been their defense, one that reminds many of the elite defenses that have dominated the SEC and the BCS over the last few years. Statistically, that notion holds up. Notre Dame's defensive efficiency according to FEI ranks behind only the 2009 Alabama, 2011 Alabama, and 2011 LSU defenses in the last five years.

In several defensive metrics in particular, Notre Dame has been exceptional: limiting opponent explosive drives and stifling defense in the red zone. The Irish have allowed only two opponent possessions all year to average at least 10 yards per play, the fewest in the country and tied for fewest in the last five seasons. Notre Dame hasn't allowed a touchdown to be scored from outside the red zone in 628 consecutive plays. And its defense has allowed only eight touchdowns in 33 red zone trips (24.2 percent, the lowest rate in the last five seasons by far).

The Notre Dame unit that doesn't measure up well is special teams. According to our special-teams efficiency metrics, the Irish are giving up an average of 0.77 points per game in terms of field position on special teams, ranking them 89th in the country in that category. That's worse than all but one of the BCS national championship game participants over the last five seasons. The 2008 Oklahoma Sooners were also below-average in special teams, and they lost the special-teams battle in a 10-point championship game loss to Florida. Notre Dame can't afford to suffer a similar fate on Monday night.


7. 2012 Alabama Crimson Tide

Overall FEI rating: 0.279
Alabama won the championship last year in a rematch against LSU, and returns to its third BCS title game in the last four years. The Southeastern Conference has dominated college football for most of the last decade, and Alabama is clearly positioned as the league's best program right now. But the 2012 Crimson Tide aren't quite the same powerhouse as other recent SEC champions, especially the 2011 and 2009 Alabama teams that took home the crystal football.

Like Notre Dame, Alabama is led by its defense first and foremost. The Crimson Tide force opponents into a three-and-out or worse on 47.9 percent of drives, best in the nation this year. The two recent Alabama champions were even better -- last year's stifling defense forced three-and-outs on 59.7 percent of opponent drives. Perhaps most impressively, the 2011 Alabama defense gave up an astonishingly low 18.5 percent of available yards (measured from starting field position to the end zone). No other defense in the last five years gave up fewer than 24 percent of available yards on the season. This year's Crimson Tide led the nation in that stat and still gave up 30 percent of available yards.

In the title game last season, Alabama's stifling defense kept LSU from crossing midfield throughout the game. The Crimson Tide aren't likely to repeat that feat this year, especially against a Notre Dame team that moves the ball well. Notre Dame earned 54.1 percent of available yards this year and 21.7 percent of its drives lasted at least 10 plays. That's the most methodically productive offense an SEC team will have faced in any of the last five championship games, and it may be the key factor for Alabama to focus on to take home another title. On the year, 24.3 percent of opponent drives against Alabama have crossed the Crimson Tide 30-yard line, a higher percentage than four of the last five SEC teams to play for the title.


8. 2008 Oklahoma Sooners

Overall FEI rating: 0.276
The Sooners played a close game against the top team in our list by winning the field-position battle in the BCS championship game. The explosive Oklahoma offense wasn't able to capitalize against Florida, however, and the Oklahoma defense (74th nationally in allowing explosive drives) and special teams (89th overall) hold them back in these rankings.


9. 2010 Oregon Ducks

Overall FEI rating: 0.267
The Ducks almost topped Auburn in their lone BCS championship game appearance, and like the Sooners two years earlier, their elite offense was held in check against an SEC defense. Oregon is the best team in our list in terms of avoiding three-and-outs, but they rank below six others in terms of production on value drives, possessions that cross the opponent's 30-yard line into scoring range. In the title game, Oregon stalled out in the red zone three times.


10. 2009 Texas Longhorns

Overall FEI rating: 0.231
Texas wasn't an unworthy championship game participant, but it was less than exceptional in a couple of key measures. The Longhorns had the weakest overall strength of schedule of the teams on this list and the weakest offensive efficiency. Most championship offenses are productive in either explosive or methodical fashion, and the Longhorns were below-average in both measures.

Alabama versus Notre Dame

As indicated in these rankings, the overall FEI rating favors the undefeated Irish in the title game, but we've recently developed a new methodology that includes 25 unique statistical factors to identify similar matchups to project game outcomes. The new method favors Alabama, due especially to its dominant unadjusted defensive stats and solid special-teams play. The new method gives the Crimson Tide a 69 percent chance of victory in a title game that is likely to be decided by a single score. Even though this year's opponent may be its toughest yet, there's still a good chance that the SEC will claim its seventh straight national championship on Monday night.

 

[Patrick Kane]

Skooby da gawd, good looking out on the updates.