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Skooby

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Skooy, can I get that insider by Scouts inc. today on Adrian Peterson?

Inside Adrian Peterson's success

We are seeing a season by a remarkable player that may never be duplicated, and every week the Minnesota Vikings' Adrian Peterson continues to make plays that defy description and add to his lore -- all of this production coming after a devastating 2011 knee injury that might have ended the career of a lot of players.

Everybody is talking about AP's numbers in 2012 and the potential in the next two weeks for him to break Eric dikkerson's single-season rushing record, but we will take a different approach here and go into the film room and dissect Peterson -- the football player -- and break down his overall game.

Why has he been so successful this season?

Inside runner

His power is off the charts, and he actually seems to attack defenders with almost a defensive mentality. He is the best back in the NFL in yards after contact and he rarely goes down after the first hit. His pad level is excellent, and he is not an upright runner who gives you a lot of surface to hit.

By nature, Peterson is a north-south runner who does his best work between the tackles. He is a no-nonsense guy who attacks the hole straight on, and there is rarely any wasted movement.

He is very patient inside and may have several carries that produce minimum yardage before he breaks the big run. He is fully aware that those short runs are necessary to set up those big plays. He runs with his knees high and has a nice, wide base. His quickness to the hole is excellent, and his balance is rare for a power back.

Perhaps the most surprising thing about Peterson as an inside runner is his breakaway speed when he gets to the second level. You get the feeling that defenses are not prepared for his explosiveness until they see it in person.

Outside runner

Defenses load up the box with eight and nine defenders to slow Peterson down -- almost baiting him to run more outside -- with the mentality that if he is forced to run more east-west it will allow the defensive pursuit to catch up. However, be careful what you wish for.

In 2012, a lot of his big runs are coming outside the tackles, and he has done a terrific job of adjusting his running style. He is Barry Sanders-like in his ability to move along the line of scrimmage and make multilateral cuts as he looks for the hole that he wants. His speed around the edge is very much underrated, and he is almost impossible to bring down in space.

Another subtle skill that he has developed is the ability to press the hole, using a style that reminds you a little bit of LaDainian Tomlinson when he played for the Chargers. With defenses expecting Peterson to attack between the tackles, he will get really deep into the hole, which lures the defender to crash inside and set the edge. When that happens, he can make one of his amazing lateral cuts to bounce the run outside. With defenders stacked to stop him, the more Peterson can lure them inside the more room he has to run outside.

To their credit, the Vikings' tight ends and wide receivers have developed into good second-level/open-field blockers, and that helps on some of those runs.

Another area Peterson excels in is the cutback run. He loves to set up defenders by getting them to over-pursue against off-tackle or outside runs and then cut back against the grain. He has become a quality backside runner. If a defensive front doesn't play with outstanding gap discipline, he will make it look silly.

Offensive schemes

A big part of Peterson's success has been the ability of Minnesota's coaches to adapt their playbook to fit his skills.

His preference in the past was to run out of mostly one-back sets, where he can be more creative. But this year a lot of his explosive runs have come out of two-back sets with a terrific lead fullback, Jerome Felton, out of the I-formation. Peterson has surprising patience as Felton forms the block in front of him, especially on the second level, and there seems to be solid trust between them. They are also very good on the draw play.

The Vikings will also show multiple-tight end sets, overloads and unbalanced looks in the offensive line. They will pull guards and utilize traps and wham blocks in an attempt to give Peterson a crease against the eight- and nine-man fronts. They have even used a three-back formation to give a little more power in their run game. However, this offense is so simplistic that by the time the ball is snapped, there are not a lot of surprises.

All of this run success has come without the benefit of a passing game that scares anybody. Peterson's average gain per carry is higher than quarterback Christian Ponder's average gain per pass. Defenses simply don't respect this passing game on the edges, and that allows them to stack the box versus the run instead of playing more coverage schemes.

One wrinkle we are seeing with Ponder is more bootleg plays to get him outside the pocket. The hope is it will force defenses to widen a little bit, which could give Peterson better run lanes.

Other unique skills

Peterson may have the best stiff-arm of any running back in recent years. It is shocking how many extra edge yards he gets because that arm keeps the defender away from his body.

He has also developed a good spin technique, especially in space as the defender tries to tackle him. When you combine that with his change of direction and lateral quickness, he is tough to contain on the second level.

He has never been a big part of the Vikings' passing game, but, as you would expect, he has worked to improve as an outlet receiver and also as a blocker in blitz pickup. I have never seen a player who seems to be more determined to get better in his areas of perceived weakness.

He was a little bit of a fumbler early in his career, but his ball security is much better now. He is terrific at changing the arm he uses to carry the ball to prevent the defenders from knocking it out.

What should we expect in the final two games?

This team is fully aware that the only chance it has to get into the playoffs is to ride Peterson's legs -- and every opponent knows it, too. While he didn't miss any games early in the season, his coaches put him on a little bit of a "pitch count" and limited his carries. But now there are no limitations and he will get a lot of touches down the stretch.

His last two regular-season opponents, Houston and Green Bay, are not playing defense at an elite level right now -- partly because of injuries -- so plays are there to be had. It is going to be fun to watch if he can break dikkerson's record and lead the Vikings to the postseason.
 

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What happened to Heat's title D?

Maybe the Miami Heat's defense thinks the season kicks off on Christmas Day again, as was the case last season because of the lockout.

After two seasons ranked in the top five in defensive efficiency, the Heat find themselves 14th on that end of the floor. The defending champs have the league's fifth-best record at 16-6 and the sixth-best point differential (5.3 points).

This defensive lapse doesn't make much sense on paper. The Heat's star trio of LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are back in the fold. The rotation members from last season -- Shane Battier, Mario Chalmers, Udonis Haslem, Joel Anthony, Mike Miller and Norris Cole -- are still with the Heat. Everybody from the front office to the coaching staff to Burnie the team mascot all returned for the quest to repeat as champions.

Actually, the roster continuity is almost unprecedented. Dig into the numbers and you'll see that the Heat have a staggering 96.7 percent retention rate of the total minutes played by last season's roster. In fact, it's the highest for any championship team in 15 years. (The 1997-98 Bulls reeled in 97.2 percent of the roster from the previous season's title-winning team for their last hurrah, and another crown.) It's also a stark contrast to the 2011 champion Dallas Mavericks, who brought back only 66.2 percent of their roster after letting Tyson Chandler, J.J. Barea and DeShawn Stevenson head elsewhere.

Highest retention rate for champions, past 20 seasons
Title Team Pct. of Mins Repeat?
1996 Bulls 97.6 Yes
1997 Bulls 97.2 Yes
2012 Heat 96.7 ???
1999 Spurs 95.3 No
2007 Spurs 93.2 No
Average 79.7 pct

Yet despite having everyone back, Miami has seemingly lost its most prized possession: its defensive identity. Look no further than the fact that the Heat's defense has been worse than the 3-20 Washington Wizards. That, my friends, is not a typo -- the woeful Wizards are tied for 12th in defensive efficiency along with the Golden State Warriors, another team that previously had no business defending better than the champs.

So with everyone back, why have the Heat stumbled out of the gate? It has to be a case of post-championship complacency, right?

Big Three at fault?

On the surface, the theory that the Heat are simply resting on their laurels seems to check out. You could point to Wade's nonexistent transition defense or the fact that he hasn't blocked a shot in 12 of his past 14 games, a stunning development for a player who averaged 1.3 rejections per game last season. Bosh hasn't been sharp, either, and he sometimes functions as a stepladder for opposing teams to recover their misses. In Tuesday's win against the Timberwolves, he didn't collect a single defensive rebound.

And James? He isn't immune to the finger-pointing, as he's been caught napping on defense more than a few times this season.

But all of this screams confirmation bias, the nasty trick our mind plays on us when we really want to see something that may not be there. We know the Heat have struggled defensively this season, so the everyday mistakes by the Heat's stars seem like major issues. Because they are coming off a title and getting paid a gazillion dollars, it's tempting to assume that the star trio is just coasting in second gear and preserving defensive energy for April and beyond. The evidence, however, points to a far different conclusion. When it comes down to it, the Heat may have already found the cure for their championship hangover:

They exchanged Rashard Lewis for Joel Anthony in the rotation.

The rise of 'Avatar'

We've acted as if the 2012-13 Heat are a carbon copy of the title team from last season, but that's not exactly true. While the Heat have almost all their players returning, that doesn't mean coach Erik Spoelstra had been playing them. Like many coaches, Spoelstra has spent the opening months of the season in a lineup laboratory experimenting how to use his newcomers, in this case Ray Allen and Lewis.

After several weeks of hemorrhaging points to the opponent, Spoelstra put a stop to the bleeding recently. He simply removed Lewis from the rotation and inserted Anthony, who makes a living by detonating opposing pick-and-rolls. Anthony used to be called "Avatar" by his Heat teammates for his sweeping length and mobility. It's no secret that Spoelstra, who once helped build the Heat's advanced statistic database for former Heat coach Stan Van Gundy, is a fan of plus/minus data -- and the latest trend has certainly reflected his close attention to the hard numbers.

And the numbers are indeed alarming. According to NBA.com's advanced stats tool, the Heat have allowed a disastrous 111.2 points per 100 possessions with Lewis on the floor, a rate that would easily put the team dead last in defensive efficiency. Remember the Heat's infamous near loss to the junior varsity Spurs and the embarrassing defeat at the hands of the Wizards? It's no coincidence that Lewis started those games.

Heat efficiency rankings
Off Eff Rk Def Eff Rk
Through Dec. 6 109.3 3rd 104.0 23rd
Since Dec. 6 109.7 3rd 95.3 5th
Source: NBA.com stats

The Heat received a hair-raising wake-up call with back-to-back losses against the Wizards and the Carmelo-less Knicks, dropping Miami to a 23rd ranking in defensive efficiency. But since then, Spoelstra has handed Lewis' minutes to Joel Anthony and the swap may have kick-started the Heat's season. In the five games since that loss to the Knicks, in which Miami went 4-1, Anthony played more minutes (75) than in the previous 17 games combined (73) while Lewis has received three DNPs.

The Heat's defensive ranking since the Knicks game two weeks ago? Fifth. How about on offense? Still third. Now that's more like it.

Room to grow

Two weeks does not make a season, but it's clear that the Heat have rediscovered the formula that helped them attain a top-five defense the past two seasons: a heavy dose of Anthony. Though Lewis has been lights-out from downtown, that alone hasn't been nearly enough to make up for his defensive deficiencies that sometimes make him look like the Tin Man searching for oil.

Nowadays, Anthony has been handcuffed to Allen in the second unit, and the balance has paid off in a big way. Allen and Lewis used to be a fixture off the bench, but among the Heat's 27 player pairs that have played together for at least 150 minutes, the Allen-Lewis tandem was by far the worst in on-court defensive efficiency (109.6 points allowed per 100 possessions). Spoelstra has since bagged it. The Allen-Anthony tandem, however? They've allowed 97.3 points per 100 possessions together in the early going.

Anthony's ascension and Battier's demotion from the starting lineup doesn't mean that small ball is dead in Miami. When Spoelstra promoted Haslem to the starting five, he insisted that it's probably a temporary move to improve a second unit that was as airtight as a fishing net. It's not hard to see that getting minutes for Anthony was a big part of that. And the Heat are back to smothering opponents with their rabid athleticism, causing the Wizards and Timberwolves to cough up the ball 21 and 19 times, respectively, over the past week.

This is a potentially frightening development for the rest of the league. The Heat's defensive woes may indeed be fixed with a simple tweak in the rotation, and there are signs that they aren't yet playing at full tilt on the offensive end. James' free throw attempts per game are down from 10.2 per game in his last season in Cleveland to 8.1 last season to a career-low 6.0 this season. Wade has dealt with a series of flat tires in the early going that have curbed his at-rim attempts, but he's getting back into shape. And after looking like Rajon Rondo to start the season, Chalmers has more turnovers than assists in his past six games.

But the so-called championship hangover looks to be healed ahead of Thursday's matchup against the Mavericks. And as the Christmas Day rematch of the 2012 Finals against the Oklahoma City Thunder draws nearer, it appears the Heat's "defending" champs label may no longer be a misnomer.
 

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Yo Skooby the gawd, can I get that insider today on AD and Megatron?

Better season, AP or Megatron?

Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson made history this weekend against Atlanta. Johnson gained 225 receiving yards against the Falcons, bringing his season total to 1,892, breaking the record of 1,848 set by San Francisco's Jerry Rice in 1995. That record lasted for 17 years. Eric dikkerson's record of 2,105 yards rushing, set in 1984, has lasted even longer, but that mark too is in jeopardy. Despite a modest output Sunday against Houston, Minnesota's Adrian Peterson has 1,898 yards on the ground this season, and he can surpass dikkerson's mark with 208 yards next week against Green Bay -- the same Green Bay team that let Peterson run for 210 yards in Week 12.

There's a problem with all these numbers, though. Total yardage tells us only part of what each player did in a given season. In a nutshell, it tells us a lot about the good plays a runner or receiver made, but it doesn't say much about the bad plays -- the incomplete passes on bad routes, the stuffs in the backfield when a running back took a poor angle, the fumbles, and other gaffes. For that we can turn to DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement), Football Outsiders' metric that examines every play of the NFL season and measures its value in terms of producing yards, first downs, turnovers and touchdowns, then adjusts for factors such as down, distance, field position, score, opponent, and other factors. (More info available here.) So who is having the better year?

According to DYAR, Johnson's season has been truly elite, but Peterson's campaign has been less valuable to the Vikings than fantasy numbers or highlight reels would have you believe.

We'll start with Johnson, because his status is more straightforward. The following table shows the top wide receiver seasons in DYAR since 1991, including Johnson this season (projected over 16 games):

Megatron's Mega-season

Top wide receiver seasons by DYAR, 1991-2012, projected over 16 games:

Year Name Team DYAR Passes Catches Yards TD Catch % Yds/Pass
1995 Michael Irvin DAL 599 165 111 1,603 10 67% 9.72
2011 Calvin Johnson DET 570 158 96 1,680 16 61% 10.63
2007 Randy Moss NE 564 160 98 1,482 23 61% 9.26
2001 Marvin Harrison IND 548 164 109 1,524 15 66% 9.29
2012 Calvin Johnson DET 533* 203* 125* 2,018* 5* 62% 9.96
2011 Jordy Nelson GB 517 96 68 1,263 15 71% 13.16
2006 Marvin Harrison IND 513 148 95 1,366 12 64% 9.23
1995 Jerry Rice SF 512 175 122 1,848 15 70% 10.56
1994 Jerry Rice SF 512 150 112 1,499 13 75% 9.99
2008 Andre Johnson HOU 510 171 115 1,575 8 67% 9.21
2003 Randy Moss MIN 508 172 112 1,632 17 65% 9.49

Johnson's catch rate and yards per pass are good, but nothing special among this group, and his touchdown total is relatively poor. Johnson's most eye-popping statistic (besides his yardage, obviously) is the sum of his targets. Johnson has 190 targets so far this season with one game to go. He's a safe bet to become the fourth player since 1991 to amass 200 targets in a season, joining former Lion Herman Moore (who had 206 in 1995), former Colt Marvin Harrison (202, 1995) and former Cardinal Rob Moore (208, 1997). Johnson is delivering like nobody else ever has in history, but that's largely because he has been given opportunities to deliver like very few men before him.

By the way, if Johnson goes wild against the Bears this Sunday, he has a very slim chance to finish atop this list. He'll need 100 DYAR against Chicago to top Michael Irvin's 1995 season for Dallas. The best game for a receiver this year was Andre Johnson's 85-DYAR outing against Jacksonville in Week 11. The Houston Texans wideout caught 14 passes in 19 targets for 273 yards and a touchdown against the Jaguars. That's the ballpark of what Calvin Johnson will need this weekend, though he'll also get a sturdy boost in DYAR for playing the still-solid Chicago defense.

Now what about Peterson? The Vikings' running back does not project to finish among the top runners in our DYAR database, but we're listing him here with the leaders to demonstrate what his strengths and weaknesses have been this season, and how extreme those strengths and weaknesses have been:

All Day

Top RB seasons by Rushing DYAR, 1991-2012, projected over 16 games:

Year Name Team DYAR Runs Yards Avg. TD FUM Success Rate Stuff Rate
1998 Terrell Davis DEN 602 392 2,008 5.12 21 1 52% 18%
1999 Stephen Davis WAS 526 290 1,407 4.85 17 3 60% 12%
1997 Terrell Davis DEN 526 369 1,743 4.72 15 4 56% 13%
1995 Emmitt Smith DAL 505 375 1,770 4.72 25 7 53% 17%
2000 Marshall Faulk STL 501 253 1,359 5.37 18 0 61% 11%
2002 Priest Holmes KC 497 313 1,615 5.16 21 1 55% 18%
2005 Larry Johnson KC 488 335 1,741 5.20 20 5 55% 14%
2003 Priest Holmes KC 485 320 1,420 4.44 27 1 58% 18%
1994 Emmitt Smith DAL 461 368 1,484 4.03 21 1 52% 17%
2006 LaDainian Tomlinson SD 460 347 1,813 5.22 28 2 49% 14%
2012 Adrian Peterson MIN 388* 335* 2,025* 6.04 12* 3* 49% 24%

Peterson's carry and fumble numbers sit in the middle of this pack, and though his touchdowns are on the low side, he more than makes up for it with an average gain that blows these players -- the best of the best -- out of the water. However, his success rate (the percentage of carries that gain meaningful yardage toward a new set of downs, explained here) pales in comparison to the rest of his peers, and he gets stuffed in the backfield at a staggering rate, more than twice as often as some of these other backs.

Those negative runs leave Christian Ponder and the Vikings' offense in long-yardage situations far too often, and that's why Peterson's DYAR will fall outside the top 10 in the DYAR database. With 388 DYAR, Peterson would rank 17th.

(By the way, this high-average/high-stuff-rate combo is not unprecedented. In 1997, Detroit's Barry Sanders gained 2,053 yards and averaged 6.13 yards per carry, but he was stuffed on 22 percent of his runs.)

Is Peterson solely responsible for his stuff rate? Of course not. His offensive linemen deserve their share of the blame as well. On the other hand, they also deserve some credit for clearing the path for Peterson to rip off some of his longer runs. Our in-depth play-by-play analysis gives us a lot more information than simple yardage totals, but we still can't totally separate the performance of a runner from his offensive line. For what it's worth, Peterson's teammate Toby Gerhart has a stuff rate of 22 percent, which is very high, but still lower than Peterson's, and Minnesota's offensive line fares well in our run-blocking metrics.

If this sounds like an attempt to disparage either Johnson or (especially) Peterson, that's not the intent. Over the course of the season, our numbers say they have still been the most valuable receiver and runner in the league this year, and Peterson's accomplishments this season look particularly remarkable given the comeback he has made from the ACL injury of 2011. There's a lot more to winning games than racking up real estate, though, and as great as this duo has been, we have seen a handful of more valuable players in the past couple of decades.

WEEK 16 DYAR BEST AND WORST
DYAR is Football Outsiders' proprietary metric that measures performance on every play against expected performance for that situation. For a deeper explanation and a full breakdown of the numbers, visit Football Outsiders.

Three surprising players

Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore
In his past five games, Flacco completed 57 percent of his passes with 6.4 yards per pass. That kind of production from the quarterback position isn't going to earn many wins against playoff teams. The Ravens' game against the Giants on Sunday had serious postseason ramifications, and a Baltimore loss would have been their fourth in a row, setting up a winner-take-all showdown for the AFC North title in Week 17. Flacco showed up big against New York, though, completing 25 of 36 passes for 318 yards with two touchdowns and no sacks or interceptions. He was at his best on third downs, going 11-of-14 for 137 yards and 10 first downs, including a goal-to-go touchdown, plus a 17-yard DPI. He even had a pair of conversions on separate third-and-19 plays. It was as good as we've seen Flacco in a while.

Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle
The Seattle Seahawks have scored 150 points in their past three games, thanks in large part to Lynch's production. Lynch has been the top running back in our rankings for three weeks in a row now, which is quite possibly a first in the history of Quick Reads. He's only carrying the ball about 15 times a game in that stretch, but he's averaging 7.5 yards per carry. He has been stuffed for no gain or a loss four times, but he has run for 10 or more yards 12 times, with five touchdowns and 10 other first downs. He has only three receptions in those three games, but each of those catches has gained at least 9 yards and a first down, including a touchdown on second-and-goal from the 9.

Lance Kendricks, TE, St. Louis
A second-round pick out of Wisconsin in 2011, Kendricks averaged less than 25 yards per game in his first 29 appearances, never gaining more than 71 yards. He topped that in one play against Tampa Bay on Sunday, finishing with four catches in five targets for 119 yards and a touchdown. His first three receptions each went for first down: a 7-yard gain on third-and-6, a 13-yard gain on second-and-9 and a 19-yard gain on second-and-8. His final reception: an 80-yard touchdown on the first play from scrimmage of the second half.
 

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2012 NFL Playoffs Predictor

We're heading into Week 17 in a season that has flown by. Calvin Johnson just broke Jerry Rice's single-season receiving yards record and is closing in on 2,000. Adrian Peterson is 102 yards shy of 2,000 and 208 yards shy of breaking Eric dikkerson's record versus the Green Bay Packers -- unlikely but far from impossible. Peyton Manning came back from a full year off to have a -- well, a Peyton Manning-esque year -- and led the Denver Broncos back to the playoffs. So, what's left?

The NFC East is still up in the air, with the deciding game between the Dallas Cowboys and Washington Redskins to come. Houston losing to Minnesota vastly increases the Vikings' playoff odds and it opens up the quest for home-field advantage and the coveted bye week in the AFC.

Below is a projection of who will be in this year's playoffs. Be sure to come back once the postseason begins, as we reset the bracket and tell you who has the best chance to bring home the Lombardi Trophy.

Keep in mind that while both the Vikings and Cowboys (given their win-and-in scenarios) have a better chance of seeing postseason action than the Bears, given the individual game probabilities, in the following scenario Chicago would claim the final playoff spot.

As Nate Silver did for the 2012 election, we do for the 2012 NFL season. Using the mythical powers of math, we let you know first who will be in and who will be out of this year's postseason.

Please note that all rankings refer to the opponent-adjusted efficiency as calculated by numberFire, not the gross yardage.

Houston
Proj. Record
13-3
Playoff Odds
100.0%

Baltimore
Proj. Record
10-6
Playoff Odds
100.0%

Indianapolis
Proj. Record
10-6
Playoff Odds
100.0%

New England
Proj. Record
12-4
Playoff Odds
100.0%

Cincinnati
Proj. Record
10-6
Playoff Odds
100.0%

Denver
Proj. Record
13-3
Playoff Odds
100.0%

Atlanta
Proj. Record
14-2
Playoff Odds
100.0%

Washington
Proj. Record
10-6
Playoff Odds
77.1%

Seattle
Proj. Record
11-5
Playoff Odds
100.0%

San Francisco
Proj. Record
11-4-1
Playoff Odds
100.0%

Chicago
Proj. Record
10-6
Playoff Odds
31.1%

Green Bay
Proj. Record
12-4
Playoff Odds
100.0%

1. Houston Texans (13-3)
The loss to the Vikings could be costly, but all they need to do to secure home-field advantage is take down division rival Indianapolis. At 13-3, even if the Broncos win, Houston owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. A Texans loss combined with Broncos and Patriots wins would mean the Texans would lose their first-round bye.

2. Denver Broncos (13-3)
The Broncos dominated the Browns and have now won 10 straight games. Manning & Co. play a dismal Kansas City squad in Week 17 and clinch a bye with a win. Denver owns the No. 2 opponent-adjusted passing attack in the AFC, behind only the Patriots.

3. New England Patriots (12-4)
The Patriots and the league's best offense -- which includes the top passing attack in the NFL and top opponent-adjusted rushing attack in the AFC -- are hoping for a first-round bye but have the odds against them. Assuming the Patriots take down Miami, New England gets a first-round bye with a Denver or Houston loss and could still gain home-field advantage if both teams lose due to their head-to-head sweep.

4. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
The Ravens finally bounced back and won a game with a playoff feel over the Giants; they have clinched the AFC North. The only way seeding would change for the Ravens is if they beat the Bengals and the Patriots lose to the Dolphins, as Baltimore owns the head-to-head tiebreaker.

5. Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
The Colts are locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC and have had an amazing year. While Andrew Luck is leading them on offense, the Colts' secondary has been brutal. In fact, the Colts are dead last in the NFL against the pass after adjusting for strength of opponents -- they have allowed 131 points that a league-average defense would have prevented.

6. Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
Down goes Pittsburgh! Cincinnati clinched a wild-card berth with a win over the Steelers and are locked into the No. 6 seed. The Bengals will need to rely upon their rushing attack, which ranks No. 2 in the AFC after adjusting for strength of opponents.


1. Atlanta Falcons (14-2)
The Falcons beat up on Detroit on Saturday night and have clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That means Matt Ryan and the No. 5 ranked opponent-adjusted passing offense will not play another game outside of a dome this season.

2. Green Bay Packers (12-4)
The Packers embarrassed the Titans, putting up 55 points and making it look easy. With the 49ers' loss to the Seahawks, the Packers and the NFC's No. 1 passing offense are in the driver's seat and will secure a first-round bye with a win over Minnesota.

3. San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1)
The Sunday night loss to the Seahawks does not hurt the Niners' playoff hopes, but it will hurt their Super Bowl chances. The only way for San Fran to secure a first-round bye is with a win and a Packers loss. Between Colin Kaepernick and Frank Gore, the Niners own the league's No. 2 opponent-adjusted running game, which has added 35 points above what a league-average offense would score in similar situations.

4. Washington Redskins (10-6)
Robert Griffin III and the Redskins won again -- albeit with some drama -- and remain one of the hottest teams in the NFL. The Skins control their playoff destiny and will see postseason action by beating Dallas or with a combination of Minnesota and Chicago losses.

5. Seattle Seahawks (11-5)
In the past three weeks, the Seahawks have put up 50-plus points twice and dominated San Francisco 42-13. If anyone in the NFC is hotter than the Skins, it's the Seahawks. Russell Wilson and Seattle's opponent-adjusted passing offense ranks No. 2 in the NFL on a per play basis, and while the Seahawks have secured a playoff spot, they can improve their seeding with a win and Niners loss.

6. Chicago Bears (10-6)
The Bears do not control their destiny, but with a likely Green Bay win over the Vikings, Chicago will land the final playoff spot by defeating Detroit at Ford Field next week.

AFC: LAST TWO OUT
Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8, 0.0 percent playoff odds)
Big Ben & Co. will be sitting on the couch come January thanks to some dismal play to close out the year. The Steelers have now lost three straight games and five of their past six. Between Jonathan Dwyer and the rest of the Steelers' running backs, Pittsburgh ranks No. 30 in opponent-adjusted rushing efficiency.

Miami Dolphins (7-9, 0.0 percent playoff odds)
Miami was eliminated from the playoffs in Week 16, but can still play spoiler against the Patriots, who are hoping for a first-round bye.

AFC REMAINING TEAMS

Sorted by playoff odds

San Diego Chargers (7-9, 0.0 percent)
New York Jets (6-10, 0.0)
Buffalo Bills (6-10, 0.0)
Tennessee Titans (6-10, 0.0)
Cleveland Browns (5-11, 0.0)
Oakland Raiders (4-12, 0.0)
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14, 0.0)
Kansas City Chiefs (2-14, 0.0)

NFC: LAST TWO OUT
Minnesota Vikings (9-7, 45.0 percent playoff odds)
While their win over Houston was enormous -- and the Giants' loss just as big -- the Vikings still have a tall task ahead of them in Week 17. Green Bay has a first-round bye to play for, which means Minnesota will see them in full force. The Vikings can still make the playoffs with a loss if Dallas, New York and Chicago all lose as well.

Dallas Cowboys (8-8, 32.4 percent playoff odds)
It's pretty simple for the Cowboys -- win and they are in. Dallas will face a streaking Redskins team at FedEx Field on Sunday night.

NFC REMAINING TEAMS

Sorted by playoff odds

New York Giants (9-7, 14.4 percent)
New Orleans Saints (8-8, 0.0)
St. Louis Rams (7-8-1, 0.0)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10, 0.0)
Carolina Panthers (6-10, 0.0)
Arizona Cardinals (5-11, 0.0)
Philadelphia Eagles (4-12, 0.0)
Detroit Lions (4-12, 0.0)
 
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Skooby

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Time to deal Monta Ellis

It doesn't take a long look back in the history books to find the last time the Milwaukee Bucks made a big, bold move to change the face of the franchise.

That's precisely what they did last season when they shipped Andrew Bogut to Golden State along with Stephen Jackson for Monta Ellis, Ekpe Udoh and the expiring contract of Kwame Brown.

It couldn't have been an easy decision. In Bogut, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2005 NBA draft, the Bucks had a strong defender, a skillful team-oriented offensive player and a guy regarded as one of the game's top players at a premium position -- center. These types don't come around very often, and when they do, they're usually not on your team.

But Bogut was also one of the game's most injury-prone players, and to the Bucks' credit, they realized this, acted fast and made the move they felt they needed to make, getting one of the game's most explosive young scorers (Ellis) back in return.

If only it were that simple.

Fast-forward nine months to today, and it's become increasingly clear that the Bucks aren't much better off. Yes, Bogut has played only four games for the Warriors as he works his way back from offseason microfracture surgery, and the trade did effectively move Jackson and the $10 million-plus owed to him this season. But as far as building around Ellis and Brandon Jennings to turn the Bucks into a true contender in 2012-13 or anytime in the near future? Not a chance.

With Ellis and Jennings both very likely in the final year of their current deals (Ellis is expected to turn down his $11 million player option for 2013-14 and become an unrestricted free agent, and Jennings will be a restricted free agent as long as he declines the qualifying offer he'll presumably get), the Bucks are faced with two real options going forward:

1. Make another big, bold move -- even if it means taking a temporary step backward -- to try to upgrade in a way that pushes them closer to the title contenders of the league like the Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder, Memphis Grizzlies and San Antonio Spurs.

2. Ride it out, play it safe, and try to sign both Jennings and Ellis to long-term deals, building the team around the undersize, exciting backcourt tandem.

Here's what we think they should do.

If the playoffs started today, Milwaukee (13-11) would have the fifth-best record in the Eastern Conference. But could this team realistically knock off the Heat or Thunder in a 7-game playoff series? Extremely doubtful.

We're talking about a Bucks' squad that is one of only two teams in the league with a winning record and a negative plus/minus (-1.3). Boston is the other. We're talking about a Milwaukee team that ranks No. 26 in the league in offensive efficiency (98.4 points scored per 100 possessions). We're talking about the third-worst team in the NBA in terms of true shooting percentage (50.1 percent) -- only Cleveland and Washington are worse.

While the Bucks do have their strong points -- they are a good defensively and among the best in the league at taking care of the basketball, both staples of Skiles -- it's clear that they need a whole lot more efficiency on the offensive end. Put another way, they need to shoot better.

Ellis is shooting just 38.7 percent from the field this season, made worse by a career-worst 20 percent from 3-point range. Jennings is little better at 39.8 percent, due in part to his struggles to finish near the rim this season.

If the Bucks have any intention of reaching the level of the Heat, Thunder, Grizzlies or Spurs, they'll have to choose to build around either Jennings or Ellis, not both.

And we believe that player will be Jennings, for a number of reasons:

1. If he becomes a restricted free agent, as expected, he'll be more retainable than that of Ellis, who hasn't exactly gone on record to say that he would like to stay in Milwaukee long-term.

2. At 23 and in his fourth season, there's a decent chance that Jennings hasn't yet reached his ceiling, whereas the 27-year-old Ellis is in his eighth season and probably already peaked as a pro.

3. While Jennings is a small point guard at 6-foot-1, it's easier to find a shooting guard to pair with him than it'd be to find a point guard to go with a 6-foot-3 shooting guard. (Just look at the vast improvements Golden State has made with 6-foot-7 Klay Thompson playing the 2 next to Stephen Curry this season.)

4. Money: It's one thing to sign someone like Jennings to a deal like Curry or Philadelphia's Jrue Holiday in that 9-to-11 million a year range. It's quite another to give that money to someone like Ellis, who might be better served in a sixth-man role like a Jamal Crawford, Louis Williams or Manu Ginobili. Neither Ellis nor the Bucks would be happy in that scenario.

This is where the Bucks' brass will be tested, because it'd be easy to stand pat and attempt to go forward with the team it has -- a good but not great mix of emerging youth like Larry Sanders, John Henson and Tobias Harris and solid veteran role players like Beno Udrih, Mike Dunleavy and Ersan Ilyasova. What they lack, though, is star power and any real chance of advancing past the first or second round of the playoffs without it.

To improve and to bring a future star on board, they need to be open to trading Ellis for whatever they can get. Frank Madden of BrewHoop.com suggested earlier this week that even a younger rotational player and a marginal draft pick could be enough to make it worth it for the Bucks.

Whether that's the case or not, Milwaukee needs to address its wing positions. The Bucks need bigger swingmen who can shoot from the perimeter and make a concerted effort to buckle down on defense. Those are the type of players that would be ideal next to Jennings for the foreseeable future. Those are the types this franchise could build around.

The good news is even if those players don't come via trade (might Eric Gordon be available in a deal for say, Ellis and Harris?) or free agency (Kevin Martin's deal expires after the season), the 2013 draft could offer some solid options with guys like athletic Kansas swingman Ben McLemore, versatile Georgetown small forward Otto Porter and rangy Syracuse guard Michael Carter-Williams.

Change is never easy, but attendance at the BMO Harris Bradley Center has been in steady decline in recent years, and this season the Bucks are drawing just 13,547 fans a game, the third-lowest average attendance in the NBA. Clearly, this is a franchise and a fan base needing an injection of some real energy and excitement.

Dealing Ellis is the next big, bold move it should take to make that happen.
 

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Bucs-Falcons: Falcons look to close strong against spiraling Bucs

QB WR OL DL LB DB Coach = Falcons
RB ST = Bucs

• Try to slow Atlanta's weaponry: Atlanta's receivers have a massive advantage over the Buccaneers' pass defense, specifically their weak group of cornerbacks. Wide receivers have posted huge numbers against the Bucs. The Falcons will probably want to keep Tampa Bay in its sub-package defense, as it just doesn't have enough quality cover guys to go around. Julio Jones dominated Tampa Bay in the teams' first meeting, racking up 147 yards. And Roddy White remains extremely threatening, as evidenced by the 153 receiving yards he produced in Week 16. Leaving either of these two one-on-one is a dangerous proposition for a defense, but Tampa will consistently have to leave one of Atlanta's top three options in single coverage, which Matt Ryan is sure to find.

• Get Martin back on track: Rookie Doug Martin was stifled to the tune of just 50 yards rushing on 21 carries in Week 12 vs. Atlanta, and teams are keying on him more than ever. To win this game, Tampa needs an all-around productive day from their feature back. The Buccaneers are primarily a 21 personnel offense, with a true blocking fullback, and feature a physical downhill attack. Martin can be quite effective even when he isn't producing on the ground, as he gets plenty of targets in the passing game. But the Falcons are quite athletic, versatile and active on the second level where Sean Weatherspoon and Stephen Nicholas should provide stiff challenges for Martin in both phases.

• Get to Freeman: Atlanta's pass defense is at its best when bringing extra rushers, and its blitz package is complex and difficult to diagnose. John Abraham remains the Falcons' best individual pass-rusher, and Atlanta is getting a lot from fellow defensive end Kroy Biermann, who is used all over the defense. The Falcons could not record a sack last week even though Matthew Stafford attempted 56 passes, but Bucs QB Josh Freeman was sacked five times last week.

• Home QB: With his superb accuracy, Ryan is playing at an extremely high level. The Falcons' offense has become good at dictating tempo, and it can keep the defense on its heels with a high-paced attack. Ryan is a vastly improved deep passer from previous seasons and is excellent using play action, which can go hand-in-hand. The Falcons have been excellent on third downs and love to throw quick-hitting screens. Their receivers are excellent after the catch. Ryan threw for 353 yards on the road in these teams' first meeting and was sacked just once. The Bucs' secondary isn't good enough to hold up when Tampa Bay brings pressure, which puts a lot of stress on the defensive front. And the Bucs didn't record a sack last week.

• Away QB: Over his past two games, Freeman has a lousy 1-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Freeman has struggled throwing over the middle and his mechanics and fundamentals as a whole have been very erratic, which really hurts his consistency and accuracy. In turn, he runs very hot and cold. Needless to say, he has been extremely cold of late. Although Stafford threw for 443 yards in a losing effort last week, the Falcons have really done a nice job limiting the production of opposing passing games and are very creative and varied with their coverages. Atlanta's safeties have come on big with this new scheme in 2012, and accounting for Thomas DeCoud and William Moore is very difficult for even the most experienced and advanced quarterback.

• Key positional battle -- Buccaneers' WRs vs. Falcons' CBs: Vincent Jackson isn't Calvin Johnson, but Johnson racked up an amazing 225 yards against the Falcons last Saturday. Jackson and Mike Williams each eclipsed 100 receiving yards in Week 16. Freeman threw for 372 yards last week, but had four interceptions. While Asante Samuel often makes big plays, he also can allow them. And big plays deep downfield are Jackson's specialty. Dunta Robinson is a more physical corner than Samuel. Expect to see Atlanta feature a wide variety of coverages, which could really tax Freeman from a recognition standpoint.

• Featured players: The Falcons' running game is a problem area, and their running backs have extremely different skill sets. Michael Turner is a big, physical, between-the-tackles runner who offers very little in the passing game or as a runner on the perimeter. Jacquizz Rodgers, meanwhile, is much better suited for Atlanta's pass-heavy offense, but he isn't ideally suited to carry the load as a runner. Despite leading most of the game, the Falcons still only rushed for 73 yards last week. A second-level defender to really keep an eye on is Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate Lavonte David. The Tampa Bay linebacker is a big-time playmaker and has fantastic playing speed.

• Film room nuggets: On an offensive line better suited to protect Ryan instead of opening holes in the run game, Tyson Clabo has stood out at right tackle in protection. Peter Konz has been very up and down at right guard since being inserted into the lineup. Not only is Tampa Bay very questionable in coverage, but its pass rush isn't a strength either, and Ryan has been fantastic vs. four or fewer rushers.

Prediction
Atlanta 33
Tampa Bay 14

Atlanta edged the Bucs 24-23 in Week 12 but has an extra day to prepare after beating Detroit last Saturday. The Bucs lost last week to St. Louis, and their once-promising season has spiraled downward. The Falcons far outclass their division rival.


Jets-Bills: Jets, Bills wrap disappointing seasons

QB RB WR OL DL ST = Bills
LB DB Coach = Jets

• Jets need to get Sanchez on track: The New York offense has been dismal most of the season. Getting Mark Sanchez, who's back in the starting lineup because of Greg McElroy's concussion, on track early is key. McElroy was under duress all game and sacked 11 times against San Diego in Week 16. Look for offensive coordinator Tony Sparano to pound the football against a Bills defense that yields an NFL-worst 146.7 rushing yards per game with a physical ground attack and to use high-percentage passes early to give Sanchez confidence.

• Balanced approach offensively: Buffalo has enough talent offensively to keep a feisty, seventh-ranked New York defense guessing. The Bills average 140.5 rushing yards per game and can mount an effective ground assault versus most defenses. The Bills' 24th-ranked passing offense is less than impressive, but it could put up some solid numbers against a club like the Jets (only 30 sacks) that doesn't pressure quarterbacks well. Look for Chan Gailey to design a game plan with balance on early downs to methodically move the chains.

• Turnover battle and special teams: Both teams have been poor in turnover differential, with the Jets at minus-13 and Bills minus-14. Both punters are solid, but the Bills' coverage units have been a bit shaky. With Buffalo's Leodis McKelvin on IR, the Jets have the edge in the return game. Rian Lindell, who has missed only once in 22 field goal attempts, gives the Bills a more consistent place-kicker.

• Home QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick has adequate size, strength and athleticism for the position. He's not one to power the ball into tight windows but is successful with timing, technique and instincts. He is streaky passer who gets the ball out quickly and usually takes what a defense gives him. He can improvise to extend the play but works best from the pocket. Fitzpatrick can put up big numbers given time to scan the field but needs the aid of an effective ground attack to be effective.

• Away QB: McElroy's concussion means Sanchez returns to the starting lineup for the Jets. Sanchez has good physical skills and is a solid athlete. He can scramble and make some plays outside the pocket, but what gets him into trouble are his decision-making and tendency to force the ball into coverage.

• Key positional battle -- Bills' O-line vs. Jets' front seven: Buffalo fields a physical offensive line, anchored by rookie left tackle Cordy Glenn, that is a big reason the Bills average more than 5 yards per carry. New York's front seven, especially its defensive line, is stout and is tough to get movement on. This battle in the trenches is where this game will be won and lost. If the Bills can run the ball effectively on early downs, they will have the upper hand. If Rex Ryan's defense can force the Bills into long-yardage third-down situations, New York should come out on top.

• Featured player: Bills running back C.J. Spiller lacks great size, but he has explosive quickness and burst in the open field. He has the ability to outrun angles that defenders have on him and can take it the distance any time he touches the ball. Spiller is dangerous as a receiver with speed to pick up chunks of yards. He has deceptive power between the tackles but does most of his damage on the edges. Spiller leads all NFL running backs with 6.5 yards per carry and accounts for 30 percent of the Buffalo offense.

• Film room nuggets: Joe McKnight is New York's most explosive player. His burst, quickness and speed can distort angles in the open field. He is very versatile getting touches in three phases of the game: running, receiving and kick returns. ... Bills wide receiver Steve Johnson doesn't possess explosive speed but is an excellent route runner and knows how to get deep on defenders with the subtle nuances of the position, including changing speeds at break points and head and body fakes.

Prediction
Buffalo 24
New York 20

Both clubs have struggled most of the year, but the Bills appear to closer to getting it turned around. The Bills are at home and have fewer distractions and a more consistent quarterback. The Jets can't get out of their own way in the season finale.


Ravens-Bengals: Ravens need to stay aggressive on offense

QB RB OL DB ST Coach = Ravens
WR DL LB = Bengals

• Get Rice his touches: The Ravens' offense is built around featured back Ray Rice. He is one of the most productive (accounts for 30 percent of the Baltimore offense) players in the league. Cincinnati has been inconsistent defending the run but was solid (allowed 3.1 yards per attempt) versus the Steelers in Week 16. Look for newly appointed offensive coordinator Jim Caldwell to get his best chain-mover touches (running the football between the tackles, screens and option routes) on the ground as well as in the passing game.

• Be aggressive offensively: The Ravens' defense played well versus the Giants (yielded only 217 yards) in Week 16 but is banged up. It has been exploited often in 2012. Look for Bengals offensive coordinator Jay Gruden to be aggressive by attacking the Baltimore secondary at all levels as well as being more creative with the running game. Look for more maximum protections (fullbacks or tight ends chipping the edges) to give his young signal-caller time to scan the field versus an inconsistent secondary.

• Turnover battle and special teams: The turnover edge goes to the Ravens; Baltimore is plus-10 while Cincinnati is plus-3. Baltimore was even in Week 16 but physically manhandled the Giants up front, while the Bengals were also even in their big road win versus Pittsburgh last weekend. Both clubs field solid punters but the Ravens have the edge with their place-kicker -- Justin Tucker has missed only twice. The Ravens also field a more dangerous returner (Jacoby Jones). With these teams being so evenly matched, special and teams and turnovers could tip the scales.

• Home QB: Andy Dalton is coming off a marginal game versus the Steelers (59 percent, no touchdowns and two interceptions). He was under pressure most of the day but did make some big throws downfield. He has adequate size with good athleticism and arm strength. He can't power the ball into tight spaces but can make all the throws and usually is a good decision-maker. He needs the threat of a ground attack to be effective as a play-action passer. He can improvise outside of the tackle box but works best from the pocket.

• Away QB: Joe Flacco is a big, strong, athletic quarterback who is coming off an excellent outing (69 percent for 309 yards and two touchdowns) versus the Giants. He has a powerful arm and can fit the ball into tight spaces. He is most comfortable in the pocket but can pull the ball down and extend the play outside the tackle box. Flacco has had a bit of a rollercoaster year and should build on last week's performance going into Cincinnati to keep a positive vibe as the Ravens approach the postseason.

• Key positional battle -- Bengals' secondary vs. Ravens' WRs: Baltimore fields several excellent perimeter targets (Anquan Boldin, Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones) as well an athletic tight end Dennis Pitta and Rice out of the backfield in the passing game. Cincinnati's secondary is solid and came up with two huge interceptions versus the Steelers. The Bengals are experienced and very athletic in the back end, but will have a tough challenge derailing a more focused Raven passing attack in the regular-season finale.

• Featured player: Bengals WR A.J. Green is an excellent combination of size, strength and athleticism for the position. He creates matchup problems for any NFL secondary. He can't be covered with one defender and draws bracket schemes often. Green is very physical and utilizes his length and strength to get separation out of his break points. He has great hands and shows good courage and concentration in traffic. His ability to adjust (contort his body) is remarkable. Green is the Bengals' most explosive offensive threat (13.9 yards per catch and 11 touchdowns) and Dalton's security blanket.

• Film room nuggets: Baltimore's Smith is second in the league in yards per catch (17.4), and his burst and speed are deceptive to eat up a defender's cushion. Often times cornerbacks can't recover once he gets on top of them early in the route. ... Bengals defensive end Michael Johnson has been the team's most productive defender in 2012. He is an explosive edge rusher who has excellent athleticism while utilizing his length and strength beat his opponent. His first-step quickness, instincts and relentless effort are evident each time he steps on the field.

Prediction
Baltimore 24
Cincinnati 23

Both teams are in the postseason and really don't have much to play for in Week 17. This is really a coin flip and it will depend on how many key players possibly rest.
 

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Bears-Lions: Running games loom large

QB WR OL DL = Lions
RB LB DB ST Coach = Bears

• Stop the run first: The Lions have been inconsistent stopping the run and gave up 171 rushing yards to the Bears in Week 7. The Chicago offense is built around running back Matt Forte and is capable of consistently moving the chains. Armando Allen is an excellent change of pace alongside Forte, showing quickness and wiggle in space. With the Bears' offensive line struggling in recent weeks, look for Detroit defensive coordinator Gunther Cunningham to concentrate on derailing Forte and Allen with a good dose of interior stunts and zone run blitzes to force Bears quarterback Jay Cutler to move the chains.

• Balance on offense: The Lions' offense has been pass-happy recently but did manage 5.4 yards per rushing attempt earlier this season against the Bears. The Lions field two capable backs in Mikel Leshoure and Joique Bell who can establish an effective ground attack, while it's obvious they can move the chains well through the air. Look for offensive coordinator Scott Linehan to take a more balanced approach to give his struggling team a chance to win.

• Turnover battle and special teams: Chicago is plus-16 in turnover margin while Detroit is minus-12. The Bears also have an advantage in the kicking game, with more consistent coverage units and a more dangerous return man in Devin Hester. The Lions can get the upset but must win these two phases of the game to have a chance.

• Home QB: Matthew Stafford's production has fallen off in 2012, but he is a big, strong-armed quarterback with good athleticism. He works best from the pocket but has shown ability to improvise and make plays downfield. He can fit the ball into tight spaces but will rely on his arm strength rather than his reads at times. Stafford has excellent release quickness, and has made marked improvement with his accuracy and decision-making in recent seasons.

• Away QB: Jay Cutler has good size and athleticism. Cutler has been a streaky passer throughout his seven-year career. He has excellent arm strength and can fit the ball into small windows, which can be a positive and a negative for him. He tends to force the ball into coverage with a gunslinger mentality, especially when under duress. Cutler will have to elevate his game in hostile territory to keep the Bears alive for the postseason.

• Key positional battle -- Lions' receivers vs. Bears' secondary: Detroit fields excellent perimeter targets (Calvin Johnson and Kris Durham) who are a matchup problem for the Bears, and tight end Tony Scheffler is capable of stretching the seams in the passing game. Chicago's defensive strong point is a secondary anchored by experienced cornerbacks Charles Tillman and Tim Jennings. The Chicago defense is opportunistic (23 interceptions, eight returned for touchdowns), so expect this battle to be a huge factor.

• Featured player: Johnson is the most productive wide receiver in the league. He is an excellent combination of size, strength and athleticism for the position. He has great hands, and the ability to adjust and make the tough grab in traffic. He is almost impossible to cover in the end zone with just one defender. Johnson is a physical blocker on the perimeter in the running game. He has come on strong the second half of the season and is always a threat to make a big play downfield. The Lions likely will run the ball more than usual this week, but look for Stafford to target Johnson often.

• Film room nuggets: Tillman is the Bears' most active secondary defender. His physicality, instincts, energy and leadership are evident when he steps on the field. ... Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh must be accounted for. Suh has explosive power to push the pocket in the passing game and draws many double-teams to free up other defenders in the running game.


Prediction
Chicago 24
Detroit 23

Detroit has enough talent to hand Chicago a loss but is too self-destructive to get a victory and eliminate the Bears from playoff contention.


Jaguars-Titans: Johnson gives Titans edge as AFC South also-rans close season


QB RB WR OL DL LB ST Coach = Titans
DB = Jaguars

• Get Johnson untracked early: Tennessee's Chris Johnson is arguably the most explosive ball carrier in the NFL thanks to rare speed. When the Titans are able to get him into space he can cause a lot of problems. This season it has been a little sink or swim for Johnson. He has tied a career high in games with 50 or fewer rushing yards yet still has gained over 1,100 yards. Jacksonville is ranked 31st in rushing defense, and Johnson could put up some big numbers if he can get off to a good start.

• Move ball on early downs: Since losing their most dangerous weapon on offense, Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jaguars have lacked a guy who can gain yards on a consistent basis, especially on early downs. This tends to result in too many third-and-long situations, which requires a dynamic passing game. The Jaguars are one of the worst teams in the NFL at converting on third down, with a success rate of 29 percent, in a large part because they find themselves in third-and-long situations where everyone knows they have to throw the ball.

• Don't get beat deep: Tennessee defensive coordinator Jerry Gray is not a big blitzer and tends to believe in the bend-don't-break philosophy. Jacksonville has the ability to challenge things deep with Justin Blackmon hitting his stride and an athletic tight end in Marcedes Lewis, so the Titans are going to want to play a lot of two-deep where they end up with help on both sides of the field. They hope if they can do a consistent job of keeping the play in front of them, the Jaguars eventually will self-destruct.

• Home QB: Jake Locker has had his ups and downs, from missing five games around the middle of the season to showing the typical inconsistencies of a young quarterback. He is a big, physical quarterback with a good arm who can be very accurate when given time in the pocket. While he is athletic enough to extend plays with his feet, he has been inconsistent with his accuracy when throwing from the perimeter. He needs to focus on managing the team by making good decisions and letting his playmakers produce once they have the ball in their hands.

• Away QB: Chad Henne has given the Jaguars a solid presence behind center since taking over from injured second-year quarterback Blaine Gabbert, who had struggled. Henne is a seasoned veteran with an adequate arm who knows how to read coverages and go through his progressions. He can be accurate when given time in the pocket but is not going to win many games by forcing the issue on the perimeter. He is a solid game manager who doesn't give the game away but also isn't going to carry a team on his arm.

• Key positional battle -- Titans' O-line vs. Jaguars' D-Line: Tennessee has an athletic offensive line, led by left tackle Michael Roos, and its zone-blocking scheme lets the front-line defenders create running lanes by forcing them to pick a side and then riding the block in that direction. Johnson can be absolutely dynamic when he shows enough patience to let the blocks develop. Jacksonville's defensive line is undersized but athletic and can be overpowered by a big, powerful offensive line. The Jaguars need to do a good job of setting the edge and squeezing down the play to limit Johnson's options.

• Featured player: Johnson has a chance to come up big in this game. Offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains will want to feed Johnson the ball in an attempt to control the clock and sustain drives. The first time these two met, Jacksonville held Johnson to 80 yards and 3.8 yards per carry and beat the Titans 24-19. Tennessee will want to avenge that loss.

• Film room nuggets: Henne has been a solid presence in Jacksonville's backfield and does a good job of avoiding mental mistakes, but he has become a bit predictable in that he looks to his top two receivers, Blackmon and Cecil Shorts (who is out), too often. ... On the other side of the field, Locker has done a good job of distributing the ball as he has seven receivers with over 20 receptions. What Locker needs to do is improve his accuracy when outside the pocket.


Prediction
Tennessee 27
Jacksonville 10

Tennessee has a stronger ground game, and Jacksonville keeps finding ways to lose.


Texans-Colts: Texans look to get Foster going vs. Colts, rebound from loss

QB RB WR OL DL DB Coach = Texans
LB ST = Colts

• Get Foster untracked early: Texans running back Arian Foster left last Sunday's game in the third quarter due to an irregular heartbeat, but he should be ready to go in Indianapolis. What is more of a concern is that he had just 15 yards on 10 carries by that point. The Texans need a strong ground game to make their play-action passing attack effective and will want to get Foster untracked early against one of the league's weakest run defenses. Last week's loss to the Vikings was the second time this season Foster averaged fewer than 2 yards a carry, and that can't happen again.

• Look to your tight ends: If the Texans end up bringing a lot of heat on second and third down, as is normally their style, tight end Coby Fleener should find a lot of space on underneath routes that allow Andrew Luck to get the ball out before the pressure can get to him. The last thing Luck can do when facing a blitz is to hold on to the ball as he waits for his downfield receivers to finish their routes and uncover.

• Bring a lot of heat: In the Week 16 loss to the Vikings, the Houston defense did a nice job of focusing on Adrian Peterson, holding him to 86 yards on 3.4 yards per carry. Unfortunately, that forced the Texans to keep a lot of their blitzing linebackers, and quarterback Christian Ponder scrambled and threw his way to a 23-6 victory. Look for defensive coordinator Wade Phillips to bring a lot of heat as he tries to rattle Luck and force bad throws.

• Home QB: Luck is the future of this franchise and is showing all kinds of promise, but he is still making the occasional rookie mistake. He is a very talented passer who can extend plays and make the throw from the perimeter. He has shown the ability to lead this team to come-from-behind victories, and his teammates believe in his ability. He understands football and is a quick study who reads schemes and knows how to go through his progressions.

• Away QB: Matt Schaub is a seasoned veteran who has progressed from being a solid game-manager to a difference-maker who understands the offense he runs and is a quick decision-maker. He rarely makes costly mistakes and knows when it is OK to force the issue and when he needs to take what the defense gives him. He is a very dependable and steady influence who understands his role and just how to get the ball into the hands of his playmakers.

• Key positional battle -- Texans' D-line vs. Colts' O-Line: Houston's defense is solid when it comes to stopping the run and when rushing the pocket. While Phillips loves to blitz his outside linebackers, it's his down linemen who get to the quarterback with J.J. Watt leading the NFL with 20.5 sacks and Antonio Smith helping the cause with six. The Colts can't afford to let their rookie quarterback take too many hits if they want to keep this game close.

• Featured player: Watt has been a disruptive influence all season as a pass-rusher and when defending the run. He sees a lot of double- and triple-team blocking schemes yet still manages to make plays. He sets the tone for Houston's defense and is often responsible for the Texans' offense starting drives with a short field.

• Film room nuggets: Houston's Andre Johnson, 31, is still one of the elite receivers in the NFL. He brings an excellent combination of speed, route-running skills and concentration. He averages 14.6 yards per catch and has enough speed to take it all the way once he gets to the open field. On the other side of the field, Indianapolis' Reggie Wayne is playing at a very high level at age 34. He has two more receptions than Johnson and averages 12.9 yards per catch. These two receivers do very little to draw attention to themselves but are among the best in the game.


Prediction
Houston 27
Indianapolis 20

Houston is averaging 26.8 points a game yet managed to put up only six against the Vikings. That won't happen again, and the ground game will give the Texans the edge.
 

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Panthers-Saints: Panthers need Newton to offset Brees' prolific play

QB WR OL DB ST = Saints
RB DL LB Coach = Panthers

• Convert third-down opportunities: The Saints are like a fast-break basketball team in that they score a lot of points in order to win games because their defense is statistically the worst in the NFL. Carolina lacks the same kind of offensive prowess and needs to sustain drives and produce points on as many possessions as possible. Look for a lot of option reads mixed in with a high-percentage passing attack in third-down situations for Carolina. Cam Newton needs to convert on at least 45-50 percent of his third-down opportunities for the Panthers to have a chance.

• Spread out the wealth: Few quarterbacks do a better job of using all of his available weapons than Drew Brees. He has four receivers with 60 or more receptions and two others with at least 20. It is extremely difficult for defenses to know where to focus in the passing game as Brees will take whatever the defense is willing to give him. Look for a lot of multiple-receiver formations as the Saints continue to flood the zones and secondary in an attempt to give Brees as many targets as possible.

• Protect the football: Brees was on track to set a career high in interceptions with 18 after 13 games (his career high is 22), but he has gone two consecutive games without throwing a single pick. When he does a good job of protecting the football, the Saints have a solid chance of coming out with a win. The Panthers are not a great ball-hawking team and have just 10 interceptions this year.

• Home QB: Brees is not enjoying his finest season, although he is still one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the NFL. He does a great job of reading coverages and distributing the ball to all of his receivers. He can show pinpoint accuracy when given time in the pocket and knows how to attack a defense and make the secondary play the game honestly. Few quarterbacks are more dependable when you need a late touchdown to win the game.

• Away QB: Newton has arguably more physical tools to work with than any other quarterback in the NFL, but he's been inconsistent when it comes to putting it all together and making good decisions and pushing his teammates to new levels. He can make all the throws necessary as well as extend plays and make the throw from the perimeter while on the move. In the latter parts of this season, the coaches have reduced his reads, allowing him to get the ball out more quickly, and it has resulted in a more explosive passing game.

• Key positional battle -- Brees vs. Panthers' secondary: Brees is like a chess master on the football field with his great understanding of the Saints' offensive scheme and how to attack different coverages. How well he recognizes coverages before after the snap will have a lot to say on what kind of success he sees Sunday. Carolina defensive coordinator Sean McDermott loves to disguise his coverages and add the occasional delayed blitz, and he wants to win this chess match.

• Case for the underdog: To have a chance, Carolina needs a big game from Newton with his decision-making when throwing the ball and his ability to threaten the edge and come up with explosive plays using his running skills. The Saints' defense is one of the worst in the NFL, and Newton will have a chance to come through with explosive, touchdown-producing plays if he is on top of his game.

• Film room nuggets: After an extremely shaky start, Brees has settled down to another typical dynamic year. He is a quick decision-maker and does a great job of leading his receivers away from coverage, giving them a chance to advance the ball after the catch. ... Carolina's Greg Olsen is one of the best all-purpose tight ends in the NFL. He is an exceptional route runner and shows great awareness when near the sideline and doing an excellent job of using his body to shield defenders from the ball. On top of all that, he is an excellent blocker both in line and downfield.


Prediction
New Orleans 34
Carolina 24

Both teams are playing for next year and pride. The Saints are extremely tough to beat when playing at home, and Brees should have a big day.


Eagles-Giants: Vick gets audition while Giants cling to slim playoff life

QB WR OL DB ST Coach = Giants
RB DL LB = Eagles

• Where is Giants' pass rush? New York's defensive line has vastly underperformed this year, but it still has a massive advantage over the Eagles' ravaged offensive line when Philadelphia chooses to pass. Nick Foles was sacked five times last week against the Redskins, but the Giants didn't get to Baltimore's Joe Flacco once in Week 16. But it will be Michael Vick behind center for the Eagles this week, as Foles injured his hand. Vick is obviously a tremendous athlete with rare elusiveness, but he also holds the ball a very long time and his blockers have a time knowing where he is behind them.

• Philadelphia's pass rush coming on strong: With excellent depth, initial quickness and impressive overall athleticism, the Eagles' defensive line has really come on of late. Trent Cole remains one of the best 4-3 defensive ends in football, and former first-round pick Brandon Graham has played well since the Eagles released Jason Babin. Cullen Jenkins and Fletcher Cox form an excellent penetrating pair of tackles, while Cedric Thornton has been a very pleasant surprise. Philadelphia also employs a lot of designed defensive line movement such as slants and stunts, which suits this personnel very well. Protection has become more and more of an issue for New York. The Giants will need running back or tight end assistance to help contain the Eagles' pass rush, which is among the best in the NFL.

• Feature the running backs: Opposing running backs have been putting up huge numbers against the Giants, and two of them rushed for more than 100 yards against the Giants last week. Led by LeSean McCoy's 123 rushing yards, the Eagles racked up 191 yards on the ground against the Giants in Week 4. McCoy returned to action last week but managed only 45 rushing yards. He was huge in the passing game, though, catching nine passes for 77 yards. Once Eagles rookie Bryce Brown gets going downhill, he is extremely effective. But as a runner, he is raw and must realize that every run is not going to be a big play in the NFL. And his ball security is awful. The Eagles' offensive line receives a lot of criticism, but this is an above-average run-blocking group. Philadelphia will employ a large number of screens, which are safe throws that could help slow New York's rush, and McCoy and Brown are both accomplished in this area.

• Home QB: Quarterbacks have been posting massive numbers against the Eagles of late, but Eli Manning has been inconsistent this season. He has turned the ball over too much and struggled in the red zone and on third downs. His timing and accuracy have been off as well, which could be contributed to by a lot of change among his skill-position players and nagging injuries to Hakeem Nicks. New York's offense has sputtered in the red zone, as was the case yet again last week as Manning threw for just 150 yards.

• Away QB: Vick isn't a structured quarterback, but this is an excellent Week 17 audition for him to show the rest of the league what he can do. He is sure to be on the open market after the season. The Giants are pretty weak at cornerback and will probably play more zone coverage to protect that weakness, but they also are giving up a lot of big plays. Expect Vick to challenge them deep, especially to Jeremy Maclin, who played great last week. Jason Avant has stepped up as a reliable intermediate option since DeSean Jackson was lost to injury.

• Key positional battle -- Giants' RBs vs. Eagles' LBs: The Giants had just 57 rushing yards on 19 carries in these teams' first meeting, and running backs have been struggling against the Eagles recently. DeMeco Ryans has played very well against the run and is the Eagles' best linebacker. New York uses a high percentage of 21 personnel with a true blocking fullback and has a very good run-blocking offense. Mixing in David Wilson to supplement Ahmad Bradshaw, New York's run game was mostly inept last week in Baltimore. The Giants also are getting very little from their play-action game.

• Featured player: The Giants are at their best offensively when utilizing three-wide receiver sets with Rueben Randle or Domenik Hixon as the extra receiver. Nicks is a true No. 1 wideout but hasn't been himself all year due to injury. Nicks should see plenty of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, whose play has improved from earlier in the season. Overall, Philadelphia's secondary is playing better and having far fewer assignment busts that result in long touchdowns. But the featured player is Victor Cruz. Cruz has too many drops this year, but he is still Manning's go-to option and has a ton of big-play ability for a slot-type cornerback. Cruz will mostly see Brandon Boykin, a rookie slot corner who looks to have a bright future.

• Film room nuggets: While Jason Pierre-Paul is still playing at a very high level, he hasn't been the world beater many expected. But it is Justin Tuck who has let the Giants' defensive line down the most. Tuck has battled many injuries and no longer shows the explosion or ability to turn speed into power that he once possessed.


Prediction
New York 21
Philadelphia 20

The Giants won a close game when these teams met in Week 4 but were blown out in Baltimore last week. New York has more to play for in this contest and is playing at home, but don't be surprised if Vick makes a lot of plays to keep this game very close.


Browns-Steelers: Division rivals close season without playoff implications

QB WR DL LB DB Coach = Steelers
RB OL ST = Browns

• Balance important for Pittsburgh: The Steelers have enough talented backs who are able to pound the rock and also field capable targets in the passing game. The Browns have been inconsistent defensively, yielding 120.5 rushing yards and 253.5 passing yards per contest. In Cleveland's Week 12 win, the Steelers managed only 242 total yards. Look for Pittsburgh offensive coordinator Todd Haley to design a game plan with high-percentage passes as well as a physical ground attack between the tackles to control tempo.

• Win in the trenches: The Browns have a formidable offensive line that matches up well with the Steelers' defensive front seven. Trent Richardson, Cleveland's physical rookie back, averaged 5.9 yards per carry against the Broncos in Week 16. He can move the pile on contact. The Browns racked up 108 yards on the ground against Pittsburgh in Week 12. Look for Cleveland to be patient with a power rushing attack on offense while challenging a banged-up Pittsburgh offensive line with zone-run blitzes, stunts and possible eight-man fronts on defense.

• Turnover battle and special teams: Cleveland, at plus-7, has a huge advantage in turnover differential. Pittsburgh is a minus-14. Both clubs have solid punters and excellent place-kickers with adequate coverage units, but Cleveland gets the edge with more dangerous returners, Josh Cribbs and Travis Benjamin. The Steelers were a minus-7 in the turnover battle in the Week 12 loss to Cleveland and have to be much better taking care of the ball to finish up strong in the season finale.

• Home QB: Ben Roethlisberger is coming off another marginal performance, hitting only 50 percent of his attempts and throwing two costly interceptions against the Bengals. He has outstanding size and strength with deceptive athleticism given his stature. He isn't fast, but he's light on his feet to slide and avoid pressure. He can fit the ball into tight spaces and is usually accurate with his downfield tosses. He is the best at pump faking effectively and is extremely tough to get on the ground. Roethlisberger has been efficient this year, completing 63.1 percent of his passes with 23 touchdowns and only eight interceptions, but has made some poor decisions the last two weeks. Look for Big Ben to have a big day if he has time to scan the field in this week's matchup.

• Away QB: Brandon Weeden is coming off an average outing in Week 16, completing 63 percent of his passes for only 104 yards and zero touchdowns, and will have to play better to move the chains against the Steelers. Weeden is a big, strong, athletic quarterback who can power the football into tight spaces. He operates best in the pocket but is athletic enough to get on the edges to deliver the ball downfield. He has shown positive flashes but forces the ball into coverage too often and has been inconsistent with his accuracy.

• Key positional battle -- Browns' secondary vs. Steelers' WRs: The Browns field an experienced group in the back end, anchored by 11-year veteran Sheldon Brown. They have been exploited at times and had a tough time against the Broncos in Week 16, yielding 339 yards and three touchdowns in the air. Pittsburgh fields a formidable group of perimeter targets in Mike Wallace, Antonio Brown and Emmanuel Sanders. They have excellent speed and receiving skills to stretch the field. Look for this battle in the passing game to have a huge impact in the outcome.

• Featured player: Wallace has explosive speed that eats a defender's cushion quickly. He was held to one reception for 13 yards by the Bengals last week, but he's been the Steelers' most productive touchdown maker during his four NFL seasons. Defenses are scheming to derail Wallace with more bracket coverages, and Cleveland held him to one catch in the first meeting this season.

• Film room nuggets: Richardson has excellent power to break tackles and move the pile. His violent running style makes him tough to tackle and brings a physical component to the Cleveland offense. ... Linebacker Lawrence Timmons is Pittsburgh's most disruptive defender in 2012. His punch and power warding off blockers and when tackling is impressive. His ability to react quickly against both the run and pass was evident in Week 16.


Prediction
Pittsburgh 24
Cleveland 17

Both clubs are coming off disappointing losses. This is a rivalry game that doesn't have any implications for postseason consideration, but pride is on the line. The Steelers are more talented and won't let this one get away from them at home.
 

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Chiefs-Broncos: Running the ball is Chiefs' only chance

QB WR OL DL LB DB ST Coach = Broncos
RB = Chiefs

• Can Kansas City run the ball? Before the season, interior run defense was perceived to be a major weakness for the Broncos -- but they have played very well. None of these guys are household names (Kevin Vickerson, Justin Bannan, Mitch Unrein, etc.), but they do an excellent job of filling the gaps and playing with good discipline. The only legitimate offensive weapon the Chiefs have is their run game, led by Jamaal Charles. But if he is forced to bounce runs outside all day, chances are he'll get bottled up. The Chiefs' performance last week (352 rushing yards) makes this a lot more interesting and it will catch Denver's attention.

• Can the Chiefs attack Denver's secondary? Denver's corners do a nice job in man coverage and are solid on the edge. The vulnerability of the Broncos' secondary is between the hashes, where you can go after safeties Rahim Moore and Mike Adams with good pass-catching tight ends. These guys are good tacklers and physical versus the run, but they struggle in man-to-man coverage and can be exposed if they bite on play-action in the deep middle of the field. If the Chiefs are running well, that play-action could open up good seam routes.

• How can the Chiefs slow Manning? In reality, they probably can't. The Broncos are really starting to improve their timing in the passing game and Peyton Manning is throwing the ball to spots before his receivers come out of their breaks. That almost makes it impossible to break on the ball with success. Sight adjustments have become a big part of this offense as the receivers are starting to get on the same page with Manning as the play develops. If the Chiefs think they can slow Manning down with the pass rush, keep in mind that he is throwing a lot of short-to-intermediate passes and screens. When the ball comes out this quickly, it is almost impossible to disrupt him.

• Home QB: Manning might be playing the best football of his career, which is saying a lot. His accuracy is pinpoint, he throws to spots before his receivers come out of their breaks and still gets the ball out quickly to avoid sacks. This is not always a vertical passing game, and although we don't see a ton of explosive plays and huge arm strength, Manning's velocity is good enough and he is uncanny in the short-to-intermediate passing game. His ability to gather information before the snap and read defenses may be better than it has ever been. He will use pre-snap movement to get a read on coverages and how to find a good one-on-one matchups or soft spots in zones.

• Away QB: Brady Quinn has decent athletic ability and movement skills, but he has been up and down for his entire career. He forces the ball into tight spots, he doesn't always read coverages well for a guy with his experience and his footwork gets sloppy. Right now, he should concentrate on low-risk passes -- screens, slants, checkdowns to his running backs, etc. Quinn has almost no chance to keep the Chiefs in the game.

• Key positional battle -- Kansas City RT Eric Winston vs. Denver LB Von Miller: Athletically, this looks like a matchup that really favors the Broncos. Miller can move all over the defensive formation to get the matchup he wants, but his normal LOLB position puts him right over Winston, who has outstanding size and a big wingspan. Winston's best shot to slow down Miller is to get his hands on him and try to control him physically. We know Miller wins a lot of battles with first-step quickness, but what people don't realize is how strong he is with the ability to play with leverage and use the bull rush. Winston will need help on Miller with TE blocks and RB chips to slow him down.

• Featured player: Middle linebacker Keith Brooking has revitalized his career and stabilized Denver's defense with his intelligence and consistent play. He really helps between the tackles as a step-up-and-fill guy and is a very good break-down tackler. He also gets this defense lined up properly and is a veteran defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio can depend on to make the right calls.

• Film room nuggets: A good chunk of Manning's TD passes come in the second half games, which is an example of how well he makes early game/halftime adjustments. ... Denver's Trindon Holliday has outstanding explosiveness in the return game, but ball security has been a problem. The Broncos have the reliable Jim Leonhard waiting in the wings as a safer option if they need him.

Prediction
Denver 31
Kansas City 14

This should be a lopsided game if the Broncos decide to go all-out. The wild card here is the Chiefs' run game, which produced 352 yards last week. If the Chiefs can run, it sets up good time of possession and will help to keep Manning off the field.


Packers-Vikings: Peterson aims for record, playoff berth against hot Packers

QB WR DB ST Coach = Packers
RB OL DL LB = Vikings

• Keep Rodgers upright: The Packers have been inconsistent in protecting Pro Bowl quarterback Aaron Rodgers, yielding 46 sacks. Minnesota is much improved defensively, especially at home. The Vikings will likely be aggressive with their defensive game plan, using seven- and eight-man blitz packages, but also can generate pressure out of a four-man rush. Defensive coordinator Alan Williams will clearly want to get Rodgers off his mark. Look for Packers coach Mike McCarthy to utilize more maximum and slide-protection schemes, as well as chipping the edges to keep his signal-caller clean in the pocket.

• Control tempo with ground assault: The Vikings have one of the most physical rushing attacks in the NFL, averaging 161.1 yards per game. Minnesota has been excellent pounding the rock with Adrian Peterson and should be able to control tempo versus a middle-of-the-pack Packers rushing defense that yields 111.9 yards per contest. Look for offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave to establish Peterson between the tackles on downhill power plays, while occasionally stretching the edges with a jet sweep or reverse. The more the Vikings can hold the ball, the fewer chances Rogers will have to beat them.

• Turnover battle and special teams: The Vikings have been better in recent weeks but are a minus-2 overall in turnover differential, while Green Bay is a plus-8. Minnesota has a clear advantage with rookie place-kicker Blair Walsh hitting 91 percent of his field goal attempts, while the Packers' Mason Crosby has struggled at 61 percent. Both teams have solid punters and coverage units, but the Packers have the edge in the return game. This should be a close contest with postseason considerations, so these phases of the game will have extra importance.

• Home QB: Christian Ponder has good size and athleticism with a strong arm. He has enough quickness and speed to move the chains with his legs. He had one of his more productive recent games in the Vikings' win over Houston last week, throwing for 174 yards and a touchdown without an interception and running for 48 yards. He has made marked improvement in his accuracy, completing 62.4 percent of his throws, but still tends to force the ball into coverage. His vision and ability to read coverages has also shown improvement. Ponder is a talented second-year quarterback but needs the aid of an effective ground attack to move the chains.

• Away QB: Rodgers continues to play at a high level and is coming off a 342-yard, three-touchdown passing performance. He has good size with excellent arm strength and athleticism. He has great vision and instincts to find his second and third receivers. He can fit the ball into tight spaces yet is judicious with his decision-making. He is excellent at moving the chains with his legs, showing speed out of the pocket to pick up chunks of yards. Rodgers continues to be one of the best signal-callers in the league and will have to perform well under great pressure against a tough divisional foe in hostile territory.

• Key positional battle -- Packers' receivers vs. Vikings' secondary: Green Bay has one of the most dangerous air attacks in the league if Rodgers has time to scan the field for WRs Randall Cobb, James Jones and Greg Jennings. Plus, athletic tight end Jermichael Finley creates matchup problems on short and intermediate routes. Minnesota fields an athletic secondary anchored by 14-year veteran Antoine Winfield. It was very solid against the Texans in Week 16, holding Matt Schaub to 178 passing yards and no touchdowns.

• Featured player: Peterson is coming off a below-average performance, by his standards, of 86 yards on 3.4 yards per carry. He runs with great pad level and moves the pile on contact. Peterson is a punishing ball carrier with a one-cut slashing style and excellent vision to hit a crease. He is a reliable receiver out of the backfield who flashes run-after-catch ability downfield. Peterson has 1,898 rushing yards for the year and will have a tough time breaking Eric dikkerson's record of 2,105 yards, but he'll need a great outing in the season finale for the Vikings to upset the Packers and clinch a playoff berth.

• Film room nuggets: Packers fullback John Kuhn is productive as a blocker, runner and receiver out of the backfield. He lacks great athleticism, but his instincts, power and toughness make him a reliable offensive threat. ... Linebacker Chad Greenway is the Vikings' most productive defender. His ability to ward off blockers keeps him alive to the pile, and he has enough instincts and athleticism to be an effective coverage defender.

Prediction
Minnesota 28
Green Bay 27

The Vikings need to win to get into the postseason, while the Packers want to secure a top-two seed. Green Bay is more talented, but Minnesota is desperate and on a roll. This is a coin flip, so we'll take the home team.


Dolphins-Patriots: Patriots try to get mojo back before postseason starts

QB RB WR OL LB ST Coach = Patriots
DL DB = Dolphins

• Keep it away from Brady: The Patriots' offense is explosive. Miami has shown progress offensively in recent weeks, and New England's defense has been exploited at times by precision offenses. Look for Dolphins offensive coordinator Mike Sherman to utilize a variety of high-percentage passes and attack the Patriots' front seven at all levels to limit Tom Brady's opportunities.

• Keep it balanced: New England's balanced offensive approach keeps opposing defenses guessing. The Patriots were held to 321 total yards, more than 100 below their season average, and only two touchdowns in their Week 13 win over the Dolphins. Miami has been solid defending the run but vulnerable against the pass. Look for New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to continue with a good mixture of runs and high-percentage passes on early downs while utilizing a variety of formations to get the best matchups when he wants to air it out.

• Turnovers and special teams: New England leads the NFL in turnover differential at plus-23, and Miami is in the bottom 10 at minus-8. The Patriots had a subpar effort last weekend but were still a plus-1 against the Jaguars, while Miami was a plus-4 while beating the Jets. Both teams have solid punters and capable return specialist. The edge in the kicking game goes to the Patriots with a more consistent place-kicker coverage units. The Dolphins will have to turn both of these phases of the game around to have a chance.

• Home QB: Brady is a future Hall of Famer with excellent size and arm strength. He struggled early last week with two interceptions in the first half but bounced back in the Patriots' win over the Jaguars. Brady is an average athlete and rarely creates outside the tackle box. He can drive the football when he needs to but has great touch in the short passing game. He has outstanding vision and ability to find his second and third options. He is successful with great timing and accuracy in the passing game with the ability to check off to put his offense into the right play. Look for Brady's leadership and focus to be evident in the season finale.

• Away QB: Ryan Tannehill is a big, strong rookie quarterback with good athleticism. He is coming off a solid performance against the Bills, throwing for only 130 yards but with two touchdown passes and no interceptions. He has a live arm and can power the football into tight windows. He is best from the pocket but shows some speed outside the tackle box to move the chains with his legs. Tannehill tends to force the ball into coverage (12 interceptions vs. 12 touchdown passes), and his accuracy and decision-making will be tested in a tough environment.

• Key positional battle -- Patriots' receivers vs. Dolphins' secondary: Patriots perimeter targets Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker and athletic tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski (if he returns from injury) create matchup problems. The Miami secondary is athletic and can be physical against the run and pass. There is tremendous pressure on the Dolphins' secondary to play well against the most explosive offense in the league.

• Featured player: Welker continues to be one of the best receivers in the league and the Patriots' best chain mover. He ranks third in the NFL with 110 receptions. His quickness and instincts as a route runner make him one of the best at getting open against both man and zone coverages. He has courage and concentration in traffic and usually comes up a big grab in crucial situations. Even if Gronkowski returns this week, New England's passing attack will be built around getting the ball to Welker.

• Film room nuggets: Reggie Bush is a versatile back with good quickness and vision and has deceptive power between the tackles. He also has the speed to stretch the perimeter. He is a reliable receiver out of the backfield with run-after-catch ability in the open field. ... Patriots nose tackle Vince Wilfork works with outstanding pad level and is a load on the inside defending the run. His initial punch and power can be disruptive, so he often draws many double teams to prevent penetration.

Prediction
New England 30
Miami 21

The Patriots are coming off a subpar performance in Week 16, while the Dolphins appear to be gaining confidence after back-to-back wins. New England will want to get its mojo back and is just too talented for a warm-weather team in Foxborough.
 

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Raiders-Chargers: Rivers should put up big numbers against a weak Raiders pass D


QB DL LB DB ST = Chargers
RB WR OL Coach = Raiders

• Bring a lot of pressure: San Diego's defense has the ability to be one of the more dynamic pass-rush fronts in the NFL when things are clicking as they did in Week 16 against the New York Jets. The Chargers sacked New York QB Greg McElroy, making his first start, 11 times. With the Raiders' quarterback situation somewhat unstable because of starter Carson Palmer's injury, we can expect to see Chargers defensive coordinator John Pagano bring a lot of heat with stunts and blitzes.

• Score early: The Raiders have failed to score more than three points in the first quarter in their past 12 games and have been totally shut out in six of those. And this is not a team that can be successful when playing from behind. Oakland needs to not just score but finish drives with touchdowns rather than be satisfied with field goals. Rushing touchdowns would be optimal for a team that has scored a league-low three rushing touchdowns through the first 15 games.

• Protect the football: After starting the season off by throwing way too many interceptions, Chargers QB Philip Rivers has now gone three consecutive games without throwing a single pick. When Rivers is protecting the ball and making good decisions, the Chargers are a difficult team to contain. The Raiders have not found a lot of success in pass coverage and have come up with just 11 interceptions on the year and have given up 26 touchdowns through the air, the eighth-highest total in the NFL.

• Home QB: Rivers has been struggling this season and has really missed a consistent ground game to take the pressure off the passing game. He is forcing the ball way too often and making too many questionable decisions. He is not getting much in the way of protection and does not have the dependable receivers who can come up with clutch receptions when in a crowd. When on his game, Rivers can be one of the best game-changers in the NFL, but he needs to be content to take what the defense gives him rather than trying to force the big play.

• Away QB: Carson Palmer will miss the season finale with cracked ribs, which opens the door for Matt Leinart or Terrelle Pryor. Leinart is similar in style to Palmer in that he is not very mobile, but he has a fairly live arm and can be accurate when given time in the pocket. Pryor is a big, athletic quarterback who can change things up and the Raiders are starting to use him in certain situations.

• Key positional battle -- Chargers' O-Line vs. Raiders' D-line: Both teams will be missing key skill players on offense, so they will need a dominating performance up front in order to come away with a win. The Chargers' offensive line is big and powerful, especially on the right side, and will want to consistently get push and movement as they try to create running lanes for running backs Ronnie Brown and Jackie Battle. The Raiders needs a solid performance from their front four, especially their undersized defensive ends, if they hope to keep this game close.

• Featured player: With Malcolm Floyd being placed on IR with an ankle injury, tight end Antonio Gates has a chance to come up with big numbers, especially in the middle of the field, as the Chargers face one of the league's weaker coverage units. Gates is too fast and athletic for the Raiders' linebackers to cover and too big and powerful for their safeties.

• Film room nuggets: Oakland's Richard Seymour is not the dominating physical force he once was. He can still play in situations but appears to tire out early and is struggling to defeat and shed blockers. He is letting his pad level get too high and loses leverage as he takes on the blocker. ... San Diego defensive end Corey Liuget has been one of the few bright spots for the Chargers this season. He is a very physical presence on the defensive line and does a good job of setting the edge when defending the run while being quick and athletic enough to get upfield and pressure the pocket.

Prediction
San Diego 24
Oakland 17

Oakland has too many questions at quarterback as well as at running back to be a threat in this game. Look for a big game from Rivers against a weak Oakland secondary.


Cardinals-49ers: 49ers, after an embarrassing loss, shouldn't have trouble with Cardinals


QB RB WR OL DL LB DB ST Coach = 49ers


• San Francisco's defense needs Justin Smith: After starting 185 consecutive games, Justin Smith sat out last Sunday's embarrassing loss to the Seahawks and it quickly became obvious that San Francisco needs him to advance in the playoffs. Without an active, hard-nosed Smith next to him, OLB Aldon Smith struggled to be much of a factor. Justin Smith is a solid pass-rusher and does an excellent job of tying up blockers who would normally engage Aldon Smith.

• Arizona needs to be physical on defense: One of the few bright spots for Arizona this year has been the play of its defense under coordinator Ray Horton, especially the pass defense. After watching film of Seattle's dominating performance over the 49ers, look for Horton to amp up the intensity of his defense as it tries to keep Colin Kaepernick from regaining his poise and confidence. If the Cardinals can attack the football with the same kind of physicality that Seattle's defense showed Sunday, they have a chance.

• Get back to a strong ground game: The 49ers have made a name for themselves with a dominating ground game and a hard-nosed defense over the past two years. The offensive line was "out-physicaled" by Seattle in Week 16 and needs to regain its swagger for the playoffs. While Arizona's defense has been solid for most of the season, its run defense has been an Achilles' heel, giving up 137.5 yards a game on 4.4 yards a carry.

• Home QB: Kaepernick has given the 49ers an explosive weapon on offense since taking the reins over from Alex Smith. He is a very athletic quarterback who can get a lot of zip on the ball without having to set his feet and step into the throw. He is more apt to take chances in the passing game and is still working on his decision-making, as he wants to know when it is OK to gamble and when he needs to check it down and take what the defense gives him. He can be a difference-maker when he is on his game, although after a thorough dismantling by the Seahawks there are concerns about his ability to perform when under duress.

• Away QB: Arizona, on its third quarterback this year, lacks a signal-caller who can manage the team on a consistent basis and sustain drives. Ryan Lindley has been under center for most of the last half of the season and has been doing a much better job of throwing interceptions than touchdown passes. He is pretty much a stationary target in the pocket and is not going to extend many plays or get the ball out from the perimeter.

• Key positional battle -- 49ers' O-line vs. Cardinals' D-line: Arizona's front three on defense -- Calais Campbell, Dan Williams and Darnell Dockett -- have enjoyed a solid season but will have their hands full as they face the physical and athletic offensive line from San Francisco. Whichever team is able to impose its will up front with a dominating physical effort will likely come out on top.

• Featured player: For better or for worse, the 49ers have become Kaepernick's team. How well he performs will have a lot to say as to how far they go in the postseason. There were times in the loss to the Seahawks that Kaepernick looked confused, and they need him to play with confidence and decisiveness. The 49ers are a very good team when Kaepernick is making quick decisions and attacking the defense rather than playing from his heels.

• Film room nuggets: Michael Floyd, Arizona's first-round pick in 2012, has made strides as the season has progressed but still needs to take his game to a new level. He is a big target who knows how to use his body to shield defenders from the ball and is becoming a solid route runner. But he is not the explosive runner who can threaten the secondary deep and take pressure off of Larry Fitzgerald on the other side. ... NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis still give the 49ers probably the best pair of inside linebackers in the NFL. They are excellent tacklers and run defenders and are athletic enough to stay in on passing downs. They are a large part of the reason the 49ers don't need to do a lot of situational substituting after first down.

Prediction
San Francisco 27
Arizona 10

San Francisco needs this game a lot more than the Cardinals do and should come out with a lot of fire and intensity. Look for a dominating performance up front both offensively and defensively by the 49ers.


Rams-Seahawks: Seahawks' secondary could be vulnerable

QB RB WR OL LB DB ST = Seahawks
DL Coach = Rams

• Score early: In their past three games the Seahawks have averaged nearly 13 points in the first quarter alone and more than 32 points in the first half of each game. It's their ability to come out with a very high level of intensity and strike quickly that has allowed them to dictate the flow of the game. They do an excellent job of playing from a lead. Their explosive pass-rushers attack the pocket and their secondary can gamble more often, which has resulted in more sacks and interceptions.

• Throw wide: It's looking like Seattle could be missing two of its outstanding cornerbacks for this game. Although Rams head coach Jeff Fisher and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer like to feed RB Steven Jackson the ball, they will want to go after the relatively inexperienced part of Seattle's secondary, its corners. Look for a lot of passes outside the numbers, where Seattle's dynamic safeties can't make as many plays.

• Play a lot of two-deep zone: Seattle defensive coordinator Gus Bradley likes to lock up his big, physical corners with the opponent's top receivers, but he will definitely be without CB Brandon Browner for one more game due to a league suspension and may lose Richard Sherman to a suspension starting with this game. With backup cornerbacks Marcus Trufant and Walter Thurmond battling injuries, the Seahawks could be playing very inexperienced players at corner. Look for safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor to play a lot of two-deep zone to help cover the back end and provide help over the top.

• Home QB: Rookie Russell Wilson is a dynamic quarterback who is not playing like a rookie and has improved as the season has progressed. He is one of the hardest-working quarterbacks in the NFL and is always thinking of ways to improve his play. He is athletic enough to be effective in the read-option series and is a very accurate passer both from the pocket as well as from the perimeter. He is a good-decision maker who rarely forces the ball and knows when it's OK to take some chances. He has been a difference-maker for the Seahawks and provides solid leadership on the field.

• Away QB: Sam Bradford is a solid pocket quarterback with enough foot quickness and agility to buy some time, but is not going to make many dynamic throws from the perimeter. He has a strong arm and is an accurate passer when he has time to set his feet and get his weight transferred. He can make all the throws necessary and does a good job of going through his progressions and distributing the ball to all of his receivers. He has the ability to raise the level of his offense and be a difference-maker with his arm, but is somewhat limited in his scrambling skills.

• Key positional battle -- Rams' RBs vs. Seahawks' LBs: St. Louis has a very dynamic pair of running backs in Jackson and Daryl Richardson who bring different styles that can be effective in their own way. The Rams need their ground game to help force Seattle's dynamic pass-rushers to stay at home. Seattle's linebackers are all excellent athletes and extremely active, They will have their hands full as they try to contain these two backs.

• Featured player: Seattle running back Marshawn Lynch is a dynamic runner who not only keeps the chains moving but provides a spark for the rest of his team with his never-say-die running style. When he gets into his "Beast Mode" the team feeds off his energy and seems to find a new level of play. Wilson is the guy who gets the ball into the hands of the right player, but it is Lynch who gets this team excited.

• Film room nuggets: Second year WR Doug Baldwin has given the Seahawks a valuable No. 3 receiver. He excels in the slot and shows great concentration on the ball and excellent route running skills. ... Bradford is quietly enjoying a very solid season. He does an excellent job of distributing the ball to all of his available receivers without really having any one outstanding or legitimate No. 1 receiver. He stands tall in the pocket and has a very quick release that allows him to avoid the sack while being willing to take the hit just after getting the ball out.

Prediction
Seattle 34
St. Louis 20

Seattle is on a roll as it heads into the playoffs. Jeff Fisher finds a way to keep this game close, but Seattle should put up enough points to come out with a relatively comfortable win.
 
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