No Facebook = Demented Friendless serial killer

[The Nigerian]

@The Nigerian...doing this for practice before I hit the mall with my nikka and as a basis for a pitch I'm gonna make to an I-Banker.

Peep this info and feel free to rebut.

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There arent social networks to compare to so Ill compare to MATURE public tech companies that deal with revenue from online and mobile apps as well as services they provide (mainly advertising). Lets compare to Google, Priceline, EBay and Amazon for the fukk of it . Large cap companies all within the same stratosphere as facebook
Price to Sales ratios:

PCLN ($37B Market Cap) - 6.7
GOOG ($280B Market Cap) – 5.1
AMZN ($117B Market Cap)- 1.8
EBAY ($70B Market Cap)– 4.8
FB ($67B Market Cap)– 12.5

TO give a better picture that relates to Cash and Debt…lets use enterprise value. (Higher cash than debt…less EV)
Enterprise value is essentially what it would cost to by the company...Market Cap + Debt - Cash (You can use the cash you bought to pay off debt)

Enterprise Value to Sales
PCLN – 5.9
GOOG – 4.2
EBAY – 4,3
AMZN – 1.7
FB – 11.5

I wont even bring EBITDA into this because then it’ll really get ugly.

FB has a ratio of 12.5 and 11.3 respectively only because it is still in its growth phase. For this current valuation of $67B to be correct...this means the markets expect facebook to double its revenue. This is considering the average in this little table without Facebook (and Amazon which is much lower for whatever reason) is about 5.5 for both metrics. 90% of this companies revenue is from advertising…what incentive is there for corporations/companies to increase their damn advertising in facebook when the usage of the actual website is declining behind the scenes? That is why I said the only way this valuation can be correct is if the company starts using its cash for acquisitions or if it creates whole new business lines so it isn’t so dependent on advertising.
Now lets get into the price to Earnings ratio (trailing 12 months)…because what good is a company’s sales if none of the earnings are being retained for shareholders, or invested into the company (and I don’t mean invested into bullshyt innovations like FB home)??
FB – 577
GOOG – 25
EBAY - 26
PCLN – 26
(All figures are rounded…and they just so happen to all converge to 26 making my job easier )

So get this. Not only do investors expect Facebook to double its revenue to 11B by year end 2015…but they expect to company to improve its operating efficiency and thereby only increase its expenses (currently at $5.3B…$3.9B without R&D) to about $8.2B. Because that would then create a net income of 2.8B (which creates a 25 P/E ratio when compared to Facebooks current market capitalization.). 100% revenue increase and 60% expense increase. Doable but not if theyre gonna be working in them labs. There is no way that this is happening for a company that is pretty much a fad at this point, a fad that is going to require extensive R&D expenses to branch out and grow its business beyond advertising.

I can continue going further but you have no clue about any of this so I wont bother. But tell me, how is facebook gonna meet these expectations by 2015 because you know so much.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=FB+Analyst+Estimates
Just so you know I aint talking out of my ass...peep that yahoo link. The market pretty much expects 25% increases over each of the next 3 years which which would eventually amount to 100% times last years revenue in 2015

All that text and all you can say is "Facebook is a fad" which it simply isn't. Sorry.

That's like saying "email is a fad" or "texting is a fad."

Facebook isn't going anywhere.

 

[awkwardblackgirl]

What are you talking about?

I'm talking about how your saying that Facebook could be addictive like a drug yet that is a cop out because that can apply to anything that's not crack level addiction.

How is it a cop out? There are studies that show that people go through physical symptoms of withdrawal when their access to Facebook is limited. You can have an addiction regardless of what ever causes it. Addiction is a high level, compulsive use of something, regardless of the negative consequences.

 

[Ohene]

All that text and all you can say is "Facebook is a fad" which it simply isn't. Sorry.

My bad for the spelling errors btw...the figures must have broke down your nervous system considering thats all you could say. Thank you for conceding defeat. Anyways I'm out.

 

[Blackout]

How is it a cop out? There are studies that show that people go through physical symptoms of withdrawal when their access to Facebook is limited. You can have an addiction regardless of what ever causes it. Addiction is a high level, compulsive use of something, regardless of the negative consequences.

So you went through withdrawal symptoms when you cut off Facebook?

 

[The Nigerian]

My bad for the spelling errors btw...the figures must have broke down your nervous system considering thats all you could say. Thank you for conceding defeat. Anyways I'm out.

Defeat? Buddy, last time I checked over 7% of the world population uses Facebook. You can have the "I'm right" feeling all you want, it doesn't change reality. Facebook is here to stay.

 

[awkwardblackgirl]

So you went through withdrawal symptoms when you cut off Facebook?

I was a little bit stressed when I'd automatically go to the page and realize I'm not suppose to be there. But I'm sure if I didn't have the coli to fall back on, it could have been a different story lol.

 

[Blackout]

I was a little bit stressed when I'd automatically go to the page and realize I'm not suppose to be there. But I'm sure if I didn't have the coli to fall back on, it could have been a different story lol.

Well I guess in the end I use Facebook moderately so it isn't an issue for me.

Facebook is just another way to socialize and if used correctly can enhance social interactions.

If it ain't for you for some personal issue then I understand but for a person like me I don't see much if a benefit of deactivating Facebook as much as me cutting soda or chocolate out if my diet would benefit me.

Its like a person who doesn't use a smart phone and says that its a good thing not to use one doesn't make sense to me because they are just missing out on some conveniences.

 

[Ohene]

Defeat? Buddy, last time I checked over 7% of the world population uses Facebook. You can have the "I'm right" feeling all you want, it doesn't change reality. Facebook is here to stay.

having and using a facebook are not the same thing. I really hope you dont approach your molly watr operations with that mindset

That's like saying....50% of the American population has Spike TV. But thats only 50% of the American population gets it in their average TV package. You telling me that Spike TV has the same amount of viewers that CNN does or NBC? Does that mean 50% of the population watches Spike . Checkmate breh.

shyt I know dimes who used to use facebook...would log in and have 30 notifications, 5-10 inbox messages. So many that they couldnt even keep track (Ive done the surveys). Them same hoes are on instagram now (facebook owned ) and Twitter because they say Facebook is dead. At this point its nothing more than an online photo album of past endeavours while instagram is current. At least in the Americas . Maybe the asians are still hip on it.

 

[The Nigerian]

Facebook is the largest indexed online photo database. For those of you saying Instagram is what's hot know that Instagram is owned by Facebook.

 

[I_Q]

How can you consider such a dumb bird a 7/10

 

[Ohene]

Facebook is the largest indexed online photo database. For those of you saying Instagram is what's hot know that Instagram is owned by Facebook.

Another one. How many still have landlines at home? X amount of the population has phones at home they can use to make cheap ass calls...do they all use them? Or does a vast amount just text and use cell phones?

I was rooting for my african breh but Molly Watr is toast

Brehs it be the nikkas like this with no savvy saying that school aint shyt. And now you see why that assertion is false...especially for business aptitude.

 

[Mr Hate Coffee]

Facebook isn't that big if a deal.

People here talking about how liberating it is without Facebook like that shyt is crack or something.

You guys stress not having a Facebook as much as those people who stress having one.

If you have a facebook good for you, if you dont have one congrats.

That shyt ain't that serious.

Basically. It has its use. For me it's to keep in touch with family and old friends without needed their email or phone #s .

But if you lack self control and are on there every few minutes then you have issues. Same with Twitter and instagram.

Sent from Cloud City via Lando Calrissian's courier

 

[The Nigerian]

Another one. How many still have landlines at home? X amount of the population has phones at home they can use to make cheap ass calls...do they all use them? Or does a vast amount just text and use cell phones?

I was rooting for my african breh but Molly Watr is toast

Brehs it be the nikkas like this with no savvy saying that school aint shyt. And now you see why that assertion is false...especially for business aptitude.

Dude, facebook is NOT a homework assignment, nor is it a question on an exam. That textbook shyt does a piss poor job at accounting for the volatility of the real world. In a market that can be profoundly affected by what goes on in social media I think it's pretty foolish to write off the world's largest social network.

Now, you don't even know what facebook owns or how it makes money so I'm not sure you're qualified to give any statement about the current status of the company. Plus what you've posted is nothing new. You're just regurgitating trendy anti-Facebook talking points.

 

[re'up]

No Facebook, no social media besides forums. I think it's evening out a little in terms of women who are shocked you don't have a facebook, a lot are moving to instagram only, or whatever the current trend is. It's human nature, but I am still surprised sometimes that adults carry on this way about facebook, instagram, tumblir, whatever. Everyone knows someone (probably dozens) whos real life is very far removed from what their facebook life is, you would think these bytches (mostly) are in Paris for fashion week, eating only the finest, man I saw that bytch yesterday eating 711 pizza, and smoking a blunt.

 

[Ohene]

Dude, facebook is NOT a homework assignment, nor is it a question on an exam. That textbook shyt does a piss poor job at accounting for the volatility of the real world. In a market that can be profoundly affected by what goes on in social media I think it's pretty foolish to write off the world's largest social network.

Now, you don't even know what facebook owns or how it makes money so I'm not sure you're qualified to give any statement about the current status of the company. Plus what you've posted is nothing new. You're just regurgitating trendy anti-Facebook talking points.

youre showing just how ignorant you are breh. All of this information is public and youre here telling me I don't know any of it

Do you even know anything about the SEC requirements for disclosure? Facebook is not a private venture...its a PUBLIC CORPORATION.

All of their plans are discussed by management during earnings conference calls and they just had one this Thursday. All of their subsidiaries and non controlling interests can be found doing minimal research and looking at financial statements. But here you are telling me that I have no clue about any of it...when you have no clue that it is actually public information. This same volatility you speak of is what investors and YOU of all people are ignoring with the astronomical expectations.

You wouldve said the same thing during its IPO...and you wouldve lost 25-40% of your investment and I woulda made stupid cake if I wasnt a broke Junior in university. So breh, here I am agreeing to disagree.