Let's preface this by saying that people knew that Punk was coming. It was open knowledge that he was coming. Spoilers and leaks happen all the time in the entertainment and TV world and the wrestling isn't the exception to that.
1.5+ million viewers would have been a success IMO with how much people hype up CM Punk to be this major star and ratings draw. Wrestling is a niche industry and it's been that way for years now. Look at those entertainment sites that posted about his return and barely any comments compared to other shows and entertainment news that they talk about.
Yeah online viewership is cool and call, but it doesn't mean that those people will actually watch and consume the product after. The mystique of his return is what drawed in some of those viewers and there's no guarantee that they will even stay.
Let's not sit here and pretend like the masses care about wrestling or even CM Punk like that the way you'd have wrestling fans believing.
See, this isn't actually true. We had
good reason to believe that Punk would be there, but no confirmation before he came out that he would be there. That distinction is important when it comes to promotion. It's the difference between saying "yeah, he might be here" and "he's definitely gonna be here." At no point did they say the latter.
Also, you wanted Punk to
double the previous week's viewing audience by himself? No one's doing that...I can't even remember any show ever getting a 100% week-to-week ratings increase based on ONE person's appearance or ONE event that wasn't some kind of finale. To think Punk was going to do that is insane.
And I'd like to see where this hype about Punk's star power came from, because I didn't see it in the last few months. A star, yes, but one that's somewhere between pre-Marvel Batista and pre-Hollywood Cena in terms of star power (closer to Cena than Batista, arguably). To think that someone like that was going to
double their viewership numbers, especially in a 10 PM Friday timeslot, is a lot to me. I thought anything above 1 million would have been a success, personally, and they cleared that fairly easily (1.3 million for his segment even more so). Remember that AEW is only so well-known as a wrestling product, this is the first truly huge move they've made besides existing period.
Given all that, 1.5 million seems like a kind of unreasonable target. They did well enough, and hopefully some of those fans will stick around for the long haul.