But a lot depends on Hurts, too.
I think the reason Sirianni and Steichen’s offensive gameplan includes so many screens, RPOs, and short passes is that they just don’t trust Hurts to consistently diagnose defenses, make the right reads, and accurately throw into tight windows. So instead the offense is designed around giving Hurts a bunch of quick reads and easy throws. And it works well when you play defenses as bad as the Falcons and Chiefs. But, as we saw with Carolina, a good defense can shut that down.
And the troubling thing is, I don’t know if Sirianni is wrong to do that. Because Hurts, when he’s had chances to drop back and scan the field, has not been great. He’s struggled when his 1st read is covered, he’s missed multiple opportunities for big plays and TDs, which would indicate that he’s struggling to read defenses, and he’s been too quick to either run with the ball, checkdown, or throw it away. Hurts’ best games (Week 1 and 4) have come when he’s able to execute Sirianni’s offense properly, but whenever the Eagles have had to open up the playbook, it hasn’t always gone well.
The Bucs are a Top 5 run defense in the NFL, but their secondary is injured, so it’s going to have to be a pass-heavy offense. The Bucs are going to take away the underneath stuff, so Hurts is going to have to be able to hang in the pocket and find the open man down the field. Tom Brady and that offense are going to DESTROY our defense (seriously… don’t expect any help from them), so Hurts is going to have to keep up and not let TD opportunities pass him by. Sirianni can’t limit Hurts here, he’s going to have to open the playbook up.
On top of that, Hurts is going to be facing a lot of pressure. Sirianni has no idea when Lane Johnson is coming back, so that indicates he’s out on Thursday as well. That means the O-Line is going to be down 3/5 starters, Mailata will playing out of position again at RT, with a rookie dikkerson starting at guard again… against a very good Bucs defensive line. Bowles is going to blitz, too.
We’re going to find out a lot about where Hurts truly is as a passer on Thursday.