The discussion: Who is Indiana's best player: Cody Zeller or Victor Oladipo?
Jay Bilas: To some, this may be a distinction without a difference and doesn't matter at all in a team game. And this is the perfect time to have this discussion, because we are coming off of a two-game stretch in which Zeller had his two worst games of the season while Oladipo has been at his best. In the past two months, I have been struck by how many basketball commentators seem to revel in saying that Oladipo is Indiana's best player. He is not.
I have heard several commentators, a couple of whom are respected voices who have been in the game for a long time, state that Oladipo is Indiana's best player "by far" and that "it's not even close." Reasonable minds can differ on such matters, but I do not agree. In fact, I disagree entirely.
Don't get me wrong. Oladipo, out of DeMatha (Md.), is a terrific player and is having a great season. He is among the best and most versatile defenders in the country who can guard multiple positions and get steals and deflections at a high rate. On the offensive end, Oladipo is much improved and has been hitting open shots, driving and getting to the foul line. He is a high-energy player who affects the game at both ends, and he has proved to be among the top 30 most effective players in the nation, in my judgment. I believe he is a first-round NBA draft pick.
However, he is not Indiana's best player. Cody Zeller is.
Zeller is Indiana's top scorer, averaging 16.0 points on just nine shots per game (Oladipo averages 13.9 points on eight shots per game). Zeller is also the Hoosiers' top rebounder, averaging 8.1 -- including 2.7 offensively -- a game. Oladipo is third on the team in rebounding, averaging 6.0 -- and also 2.7 offensively -- a game.
Both Zeller and Oladipo shoot high percentages, with Oladipo shooting 66 percent from the field and 55 percent from 3-point range, while Zeller shoots 60 percent from the field. Zeller is more productive from the free throw line, shooting twice as many free throws and hitting a better percentage. Oladipo has twice the number of steals as Zeller, and Zeller has twice the number of blocked shots. Oladipo can guard more positions than can Zeller, but Zeller guards the post, the one position that Oladipo can't guard. Zeller is the guy whom opposing defenses double, and he is the first player on the opponent's scouting report.
The only thing that suggests Oladipo is Indiana's best player is surprise. Few expected Oladipo, a career 49 percent shooter (and 25 percent 3-point shooter), to have the season he is having. Oladipo already has managed as many steals this season as he had all of last season, and as many 3-point field goals this season as he has in his career. It's fair to state that Oladipo is Indiana's "heart and soul" or "most complete player" -- or Indiana's "best leader" -- but I think the label of Indiana's best player belongs to Zeller, and only Zeller. Zeller is a team player who is not a volume shooter and does not require touches to keep playing and to be a great teammate.
I believe most NBA personnel would agree that Zeller is Indiana's best player and prospect, despite the legitimate questions about his NBA future. There is disagreement as to just how effective Zeller will be in the NBA in the long run, but it is clear that he is a surefire lottery selection. With his ability to run the floor, face up and drive -- and with his skill level -- Zeller has value in the NBA. He needs to be a higher volume rebounder and to be more assertive, and he needs to be able to consistently hit a face-up jumper to range. Plus, he is not a shot-blocker. However, he can be a starter in the NBA, and he does not need the ball to play.
Chad Ford: A little more than a month ago, I had Zeller atop our list of the best college players in the country and had him ranked as a top-three prospect in the NBA draft.
A month later, it's harder for me to argue for either ranking. As far as top college players go, his production simply doesn't quite reach the level of some of his competition. In fact, I think it's fair to argue that teammate Oladipo actually might be more valuable to the Hoosiers right now.
I know Jay disagrees and makes the statistical argument for Zeller. But after watching Indiana the past month, I understand those who side with Oladipo as well. He plays so hard, is so disruptive on the defensive end and sets the tone for this Indiana team. It certainly feels as if it's Oladipo, not Zeller, who sets the pace for the Hoosiers.
And if you want advanced stats for support, Ken Pomeroy's Offensive Rating has Oladipo slightly ahead of Zeller. Yes, Zeller rebounds slightly more than Oladipo, but Zeller is 6-foot-11 and Oladipo just 6-5. Zeller's rebounding rate for a big man is very average. Oladipo's rebounding rate is excellent for a guard. Oladipo shoots a higher percentage than Zeller despite the fact Zeller's shots are much closer to the basket. Oladipo's shooting percentages as a guard are ridiculously good.
Oladipo certainly was the best player on the floor Sunday against Michigan State. His 21 points (on 8-of-12 shooting), 7 rebounds, 6 steals and 3 blocks terrorized Michigan State on both ends of the floor. Once again, he was the engine that made Indiana run.
Zeller, matched up against the Spartans' big, athletic front line, struggled. He ended the game with just nine points on 2-of-7 shooting and seemed to shrink a bit from the physical play in the paint. Meanwhile, the Spartans' big man, Adreian Payne, produced against Zeller what might have been his best game of the season, with 18 points, nine rebounds and three 3-pointers.
As far as best college players go, Oladipo, Michigan's Trey Burke, Creighton's Doug McDermott, Gonzaga's Kelly Olynyk and my personal favorite, Kansas' Ben McLemore, all would get the nod over Zeller at the moment.
NBA scouts are having an even harder time with Zeller right now. Teams are struggling to get their arms around what position he'll guard at the next level. He's not big or strong enough to be an NBA center. But the Michigan State game highlighted some of the issues with Zeller playing the 4.
More and more NBA big men can take it out past the 3-point line to stretch the floor. Zeller struggled all day guarding that shot from Payne, who made Zeller and Indiana pay. Offensively, while Zeller is incredibly efficient, his best skill is his ability to run the floor and get out ahead on the break. He's truly spectacular in the open floor in college. But at the NBA level? Can you name one NBA team that consistently leads the break with its big man? It's a skill that's unlikely to be particularly helpful in the NBA. Zeller's biggest NBA fans remain the stat heads; his high-efficiency game measures out nicely on a number of different metrics.
Don't get me wrong. I still think Zeller is an elite college basketball player and has enough skills/intangibles to be a good NBA player. But right now it's hard to justify him potentially being the No. 1 pick in the draft or the college basketball player of the year. In the past month, Zeller has dropped to No. 7 on my Top 100 and is in danger of dropping several more spots if his production doesn't rise in the last month of the season.
Oladipo's draft stock? He's steadily risen on draft boards all season. He's currently sitting at No. 17 on our Top 100 and, given his trajectory and Zeller's fall, I don't think it's out of the question that Oladipo goes ahead of Zeller on draft night.
